New Orleans Saints
Every season there’s at least one team that goes from last to first in their division and I think the Saints pull it off this season. The NFC South wasn’t great last year with a 3-way tie at the top with all three teams being 8-9. The Saints finished 6-11 but I think they look like a team on the rise. The coaching staff is in year two, the offensive line should be healthier and better, Tyler Shough looked like a legitimate starting QB, and the defense can be a little better.
Shough turned out to be a great investment of second-round pick. He wasn’t some all-world QB as a rookie, but he showed plenty of promise to make the team avoid looking for another QB this off season. The team added players to the offense to help round it out both on the offensive line and at the skill positions. Kellen Moore knows how to put together an offensive game plan and now they might just have all the pieces they need to really make it work. They are doing their best to give Shough what he needs to be a good QB, he has the skills, now he just has to put it all together.
Chris Olave was coming back last season from a number of concussions and no one was real sure what he was going to be last year, turns out, he was really good. He had 100 catches for over 1100 yards and he was basically a one-man show at WR. The team still has Devaughn Vele, who they like, but he’s coming off injury. They drafted Jordyn Tyson in the top ten despite some injury concerns, unfortunately those concerns have followed him and he starts the season on IR. Their other rookie WR Bryce Lance will start with Olave and Vele. TE Juwan Johnson is a good pass catcher and proved that last year with 77 catches. He shouldn’t have to carry so much of the pass game and the team signed Noah Fant and drafted Oscar Delp to remake the TE group overall. Johnson will still be a big part of the passing offense just hopefully not at such a volume.
The offensive line was pretty good last year when healthy, but they ran into depth problems when guys got banged up and guard was a sore spot. They signed LG David Edwards to fill the hole and putting him next to second-year LT Kelvin Banks should do wonders for that side of the line. Edwards is a reliable veteran presence they didn’t have next to Banks last season. They need C Eric McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz to be healthy and be their best selves. They’re good players when playing at their best. RT Taliese Fuaga is a good RT, but he’ll be even better with more consistency from the whole group.
The big off season offensive signing for the Saints was RB Travis Etienne coming over from Jacksonville. Etienne had his best rushing season since his rookie year and looked like a good all-around back. The Saints still have Alvin Kamara but he’s 31 and just not as effective as he once was. They also have Kendre Miller as their third back, he’ll fill in fine while Kamara works his way back. Etienne is going to be an upgrade over what Kamara gave them in the run game last year and between the two of them, they should be deadly as pass catchers.
The defense is better than it gets credit for but it’s not one of the elite units in the league. If the offense can take a step forward this season, they don’t need the defense to be great, just be solid. Brandan Staley is the defensive coordinator and did a good job with the players he has to work with. They didn’t add much in the off season on defense so it’s up to Staley to get more out of the guys he has going into his second year with them.
Up front, the team re-signed Cameron Jordan who is 37 years old and probably shouldn’t be a full-time player at this point, but he played in 17 games last year and had 10.5 sacks. It’s hard to argue with that production. Davon Godchaux is the starting NT and for now Nathan Sheppard or Colby Wooden is the other starter. Wooden would be some youth up front because everyone is on the wrong side of 30. Bryan Bresee was the one younger starter but he’s out for season with an injury. The drafted DT Christen Miller and he should eventually supplant Godchaux as the NT.
At LB, Demario Davis signed with the Jets so there’s a big change happening inside. They return Pete Werner, but they also signed Kaden Ellis who comes back to New Orleans after spending a few years in Atlanta. Ellis is no spring chicken but he’s a talented player who brings a different skill set than Davis had. Ellis can be an incredibly effective blitzer if used properly. OLB Chase Young has never been the superstar he was supposed to be after going second overall in the draft, but he had 10 sacks last season and is good pass rusher and underrated all-around edge defender. On the other side, Carl Granderson is a solid player on the opposite side, but they also signed Anfernee Jennings as depth. They traded for Tyree Wilson from the Raiders, and he could figure in somewhere on the edge.
The secondary has some very good young talent. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry isn’t a top-level CB1, but he’s played pretty well since taking over that spot. Quincy Riley has potential as the opposite CB and Jonas Sanker was rookie last season who can handle the slot. Justin Reid and Julian Blackmon are the veteran safeties tying the unit together. Sanker should see more action this year as he develops. This group can be pretty good, and they’ll have some depth if Martin Emerson can be healthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs were a MASH unit last season, and they did bring in some re-enforcements, especially on defense. On offense, they seem to be hoping they get healthy and that Emeka Egbuka can actually replace Mike Evans since he bolted in free agency. The Bucs might have the best roster in the NFC South but Todd Bowles as the head coach and Zac Robinson as another new offensive coordinator does not inspire confidence. Bowles seemed to barely survive as the coach last year and if he doesn’t get a Dave Canales/Liam Coen type of offensive player caller season from Robinson, he probably doesn’t survive the year. I have no reason to believe Robinson is that level of play caller.
Baker Mayfield started the season on fire last year, but it barely lasted a month and then the wheels came off. Injuries piled up on the offensive line and at WR and the running game was nowhere to be found after Bucky Irving was hurt. Mike Evans decided it was time to move on from the Bucs, and it felt a bit like he was bailing on the Todd Bowles experience. The Bucs may be bailing on the Baker Mayfield experience given their reticence to give Mayfield an extension as he turned 31 this spring and injuries may be catching up with him.
The WR group still has plenty of talent even with Mike Evans in San Francisco. Chris Godwin is trying to come back fully healthy after fighting a few ailments in the last few seasons. Emeka Egbuka looked like a star for six weeks or so last year and then things went sideways with the offense and he lost his mojo. That coincided with him having an injury too. Jalen McMillan is a good player and should get more time in the slot as they use Godwin in different ways. I even like Tez Johnson after last year and Ted Hurst is a nice pickup from the draft. TE Cade Otten was re-signed but they didn’t do anything else at TE.
The offensive line is led by LT Tristan Wirfs, one of the best offensive linemen in the entire league at any position. Wirfs was a little banged up last year but when he’s on, he has very few peers across the league. C Graham Barton is developing into a very good player too. RT Luke Goedeke is good when healthy and the team hopes RG Cody Mauch comes back healthy. LG Ben Bredeson is fine and holds down his spot for now.
The run game was a mess last year and a lot had to do with Bucky Irving just never being healthy. They let Rachaad White go in free agency and picked up Kenneth Gainwell who was excellent last year in Pittsburgh. He’s not a every down type of RB but he’s a very useful playmaker and will add an element to the run game. The team needs a better run game if they want the Robinson and Mayfield pairing to help fix the passing game.
The defense needed an influx of talent if they are going to keep running the same thing Bowles has been running for years. The scheme works but only if you have guys who can get the job done. I really like three rookies they added, not just for their talent but for the attitude they will bring to the defense. Bowles needs some tone setters, and they found some in the draft.
NT Vita Vea was unhappy with his contract before training camp and they compromised on a one-year fix but that’s just kicking the can down the road. Considering how important he is to what they do up front, they need him happy and playing. Calijah Kancey hasn’t lived up to his billing at this point and a lot of that has to do with injuries. When healthy, he’s solid. Logan Hall left in free agency, but they signed A’Shawn Robinson to fill the void. Robinson is a bigger body who should fill the role nicely.
The pass rush wasn’t good last year and counting on Yaya Diaby to be your top pass rusher isn’t where you want to be. The Bucs realized that and drafted Reuben Bain Jr. after he fell to them in round one, that was fortunate for them. Bain isn’t an ideal sized edge rusher but he’s a relentless player who’s going to be their top guy. At ILB, Lavonta David finally retired so they brought in some veterans to help fill the void. They still like SirVocea Dennis, but Alex Anzalone was signed to be the other ILB, and they also signed Christian Rozeboom. Drafting Josiah Trotter was also a big addition. He’s one of the tone setters they need. He’s a run stuffing demon and he’ll be excellent in his role early.
The secondary got most of its help last season with Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish being drafted in 2025. Those two should be starters this year and be counted on for bigger contributions. Zyon McCollum is their top CB and he’s solid if unspectacular. Antoine Winfield Jr. is the leader of this secondary and really this whole defense now that David is retired. Tykee Smith will start at the other safety spot; he’s a versatile defender they can use at nickel. The one draft pick I can see contributing is Keionte Scott from Miami. He’s not the biggest or fastest DB but he’ll bring an attitude that will fit right in with Bain, Trotter, and Winfield, the guys who have to set the tone if this defense is going to be any good.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers won this division last season by winning the lamest 3-way tie in NFL history and taking the division with an 8-9 record. Then they went into the playoffs and gave the Rams everything they could handle. They made some very important additions on defense that could have major upside for them. On offense, this team goes as far as Bryce Young takes them. That’s the issue, how far can they go with Bryce Young at QB? They need a clear answer this year, they need to know if they need to move on.
The good news is that Bryce Young has gotten better each of his first three seasons in the NFL, the bad news is his best seasons was 23 TDs, 11 INTs, and just above 63% completion percentage. Those numbers are pedestrian at best and even with a star WR like Tetairoa McMillan, he’s still just a guy. The team seems to win in spite of his limitations and it seems like they are preparing to move on if they don’t see a real leap this season, and I don’t think we get that leap.
Tetairoa McMillan won offensive rookie of the year with 70 catches and over 1000 yards and everyone understood how good that was considering his QB. McMillan is a legitimate WR1 and the team also loves Jalen Coker, the 2024 undrafted free agent WR who has been quite good for them. Former first round pick Xavier Legette has yet to live up to the hype, but he’ll be the other WR because they don’t have great options. They drafted Chris Brazzell II in round three this year but he’s already out for the year with an injury. At this point, Legette only has to hold off Jimmy Horn Jr and John Metchie III. Their TEs are Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and they signed Darren Waller hoping for the best.
The offensive line is a work in progress. LT Ikem Ekwonu will miss most of the year coming off a torn patellar tendon. The team signed Rasheed Walker as a free agent and drafted Monroe Freeling to cover their bases. Then RT Taylor Moton ended up with blood clots over the summer and he’s out indefinitely. That means both Walker and Freeling will start, Walker at LT and Freeling at RT. They get Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt back and guard and need both to be healthy. Luke Fortner resurrected his career in New Orleans last year as a fill in and now, he’s penciled in to start at center but he’s going to have to hold off rookie Sam Hecht.
The running game has Chuba Hubbard who is one of the more unsung heroes of the league, he’s just a good RB. He didn’t have a great season last year as he was banged up and they had Rico Dowdle who stepped in and played great. Dowdle left for Pittsburgh, so the ball goes back to Hubbard full-time. Jonathan Brooks is a talented back they drafted two years ago but he’s been injured a lot and there’s no guarantee what he can give them. Trevor Etienne is a nice option as a third-down back.
Ejiro Evero is a very bright defensive mind and it’s nice that the Panthers finally decided to invest in the defensive personnel to help him out. Derrick Brown has been very good when he’s been able to play and while the team lost A’Shawn Robinson, they have solid players beside Brown. Bobby Brown III and Tershawn Wharton were two big free agent signings a couple of seasons ago and it would be nice if they paid off. However, Wharton is dealing with a neck injury, so rookie Lee Hunter is going to get a look up front. Cam Jackson is another big body they hope to use more this season.
The team wasn’t very good rushing the passer last season, and were mostly relying on rookies they had just drafted. This season they went out and spent big money to bring in Jaelen Phillips. Phillips has had his injury issues but he generates pressure and that is something this team needs, even if his sack totals aren’t great. Nic Scourton was supposed to be the other edge rusher, but he tore his ACL and is out for the year. That leaves Patrick Jones II and second-year man Princely Umanmielen trying to be the other guy. The team also invested heavily at ILB by signing Devin Lloyd. Lloyd is a massive upgrade. It looked like Claudin Cherelus was going to be the other ILB until the team signed Bobby Okereke just before the season. He’s a veteran who should play quickly once he picks up the system.
CB Jaycee Horn got a big contract extension before last season and he basically lived up to it, that’s some good news. The better news was that bargain veteran signing Mike Jackson played great at the other CB spot too. Horn and Jackson are an excellent duo, and they hope they have upgraded the safety spots to complement the CBs. Tre’von Moehrig was very good last year but they had a big hole next to him. The team signed Nick Scott as a veteran to play opposite Moehrig. They also drafted Zakee Wheatley, and they hope Lathan Ransom takes a step this season. Chau Smith-Wade handles the nickel duties, but the team also drafted Will Lee III in the draft and he’s the type of late round flyer who could really pay off. He’s an excellent outside CB and that could allow Horn to play some in the slot.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons season was all over the place last year and the organization made some wholesale changes in the off season. Matt Ryan is the new team president while Ian Cunningham is the new GM. Cunningham has a great reputation as a talent evaluator so that should help. They hired Kevin Stefanski as the new head coach; he’s a guy who did more with less in Cleveland and did the best he could with a bad QB situation. His QB situation in Atlanta isn’t much better, but they aren’t locked into anything long-term. It’s a transition year for the offense; the defense is looking to build on a solid year last season but it’s not off to a great start.
Michael Penix Jr. was a high draft pick for the previous regime and he’s coming off an ACL tear, he’s not exactly set up for the long haul in Atlanta. The team signed Tua Tagovailoa to a one-year deal as a stop-gap measure. He’s been banged up in camp too and he’s not exactly the picture of health. Stefanski knows what it’s like to have a bad QB situation but at least he’s not locked into either one of these guys like he was to Deshaun Watson in Cleveland. The Falcons will muddle through this season and figure out QB in the off season. For now, it looks like Tua was so bad in training camp that he may have lost the starting job to Penix, who didn’t really practice until about a week ago.
The team does have a legitimate WR1 in Drake London and they can build the passing game around him, but it would be nice if he had some help. When London goes crazy this season because his QBs suck, everyone give him a little grace. TE Kyle Pitts had a good year, and they brought him back and they need him to be a playmaker opposite London. The rest of the WR corps is suspect to say the least. They signed Jahan Dotson and brought back Olamide Zaccheaus in free agency, they don’t exactly scare anyone. Zachariah Branch was drafted in round three and should bring a nice speed element to the offense. He’s not very big and he’s not the most refined WR but he can make things happen with the ball in his hands.
LT Jake Matthews is 34 years old but he’s still the rock this offensive line is built around. He’s never been the flashiest player or the most dominant, he’s just always been good. LG Matt Bergeron is an emerging talent and just got an extension, he’s a good, young player. Ryan Neuzil is a guy they developed at center, and he does a good job. RG Chris Lindstrom is one of the highest paid guards in the league and he’s been very good in Atlanta. Kaleb McGary retired this off season after dealing with a lot of injuries throughout his career. They started Elijah Wilkinson last year when McGary missed the season, but he left for Arizona. They signed Chiefs castoff Jawaan Taylor, he’s not great but he’s not a terrible alternative. He should be at least as good as Wilkinson was and that’s at least playable.
The running game is in the very capable hands of one of the best RBs in the league, Bijan Robinson. They gave him a new contract, and he should be ready to go. They did lose Tyler Allegier who was a great short-yardage guy for them. They replaced him with Brian Robinson who spent last season in San Francisco. He didn’t play much behind Christian McCaffrey but maybe will get more carries in Stefanski’s offense. Tyler Goodson is a guy to watch out for, he outplayed Brian Robinson in the preseason and he signed to their practice squad.
Stefanski brought back defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich after he did a really good job with an undermanned defense last season. They were hoping to build on the young talent they drafted last season, but they are off to a tough start. James Pearce Jr. led the team in sacks last year as a rookie after they traded a first-round pick to move up to get him. He’s facing a lengthy suspension from his off-season criminal issues, and they could lose him for half the season. Then early in training camp, LB Jalon Walker tore his ACL and is out for the year, he was their other first-round pick that year and was another pass rusher they can’t afford to lose.
Up front, the team made an off season trade to pick up Maason Smith from Jacksonville to play NT, that’s probably not going to solve any problems. Then later in camp, they traded for Gervon Dexter from Chicago, he’s a talented player who can help once they get him up to speed. D’Shawn Hand is a good veteran to have around and Brandon Dorlus has looked solid in camp.
Losing Jalon Walker for the season and James Pearce Jr. for at least some part of the season puts the Falcons in a bind. Samson Ebukam, Azeez Ojulari, and Cameron Thomas are veterans they signed in the off season to give them depth, Ebukam will start with Thomas as a backup. Ojulari didn’t make the team. They signed Za’Darius Smith, who was retired last season, and he’ll start opposite Ebukam. Divine Deablo was a solid addition last year at ILB and this year they signed Christian Harris to be the other ILB. Both are undersized but are athletic and can run. They’re going to need the defensive line to keep them clean if they’re going to be effective. Without Walker and Pearce, rookie Harold Perkins could become an interesting piece. He was a pass rushing star early in his career at LSU, but he doesn’t have much size. If Ulbrich needs to be creative to create pass rush, Perkins may be the guy he looks to.
The secondary should be the strength of this defense. CB AJ Terrell is a legitimate CB1 in the league and he’s not even the best player in the backfield. SS Jessie Bates III is a star and one of the more underrated players in the league. They got him an excellent running mate in last year’s draft, FS Xavier Watts. Those two make life difficult for opposing QBs. The other CB spot was capably played by Mike Hughes last season but he’s just a solid veteran. The team drafted Billy Bowman to be their slot guy last year, he was playing well until he got hurt. They also drafted Avieon Terrell this year, he’s AJ’s brother and a very talented CB himself. He’s a bit undersized but he doesn’t back down from anyone. This group could be really great if the pass rush can help them out just a little.
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