Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals can’t be my pick to go from worst to first in their division because they finished second to last in the AFC North because the Browns are perpetually terrible. Instead, I have them going from third to first, but only if Joe Burrow plays the whole season. Last year Burrow played eight games, and they went 6-11 because the entire offense is based around Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The downgrade from Burrow to any backup QB is just too great to overcome. Zac Taylor is back as head coach and the staff returns but if things go badly, Taylor isn’t surviving another six-win season.
Joe Burrow is one of the best QBs in football, when healthy. He’s injured far too often, and the team relies on him too much. While their focus this off season was fixing the defense, they did that because it will actually take pressure off Burrow. If the Bengals defense can keep them from being down double digits in games, it would allow the offense to be more balanced, they wouldn’t have to throw the ball 40+ times a game to get back into games, and Burrow wouldn’t be in danger of getting hit so much. The offense needs to be less pass dependent, that would actually make Burrow an even better QB.
That said, the WR duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is the best in the league and that is not meant to dismiss or disrespect the Rams duo of Nacua and Adams, or the Cowboys duo of Pickens and Lamb, it’s just a fact. Chase is the best pure WR in the league and when he has a healthy Burrow, he’s simply unmatched. Higgins is the perfect complement to Chase because his skill set is exactly what you want opposite Chase. Higgins is a big, physical ball winner who can also go deep and is awesome at the catch point. When you have these two, the third WR is of no consequence, sorry Andrei Iovisas. Iovisas is fine but he’s just a guy in this offense. TE Mike Gesicki makes some plays in the passing game and gives Burrow a different type of target but he’s not a major player in the game. Keep an eye on Erick All Jr. if he gets healthy this season, he might be the best combination of blocker and pass catcher they have at TE.
The offensive line might be a group in transition over the next couple of seasons as they have some aging players and some good young talent. Inside, they have C Ted Karras, he’s the oldest starter at 33, he’s still effective, but they have protected themselves against his possible age regression. They drafted Connor Lew, who may have been the best center prospect last season if he hadn’t had a knee injury, he’s still working his way back from. They also drafted Brian Parker II who can play every position on the line. He could play center if needed but he’s more likely the hedge against RG Dalton Risner’s potential falloff. Risner has been a late veteran signing the past few seasons who ends up starting because he’s just a little better than a replacement level guy so he’s good enough. RT Amarius Mims is a rising star and could potentially move to the left side if they feel that’s the best move. He’s a freak athlete who is only getting better. LG Dylan Fairchild had some ups and downs as a rookie last year, but the arrow seems to be pointing up for him. The biggest issue is LT Orlando Brown Jr. He’s been solid enough but he’s 30 now and at 6’8 350 lbs. (at least, that’s his listed weight), his body may start to betray him. It’s not his fault, guys that big just don’t last that long, it’s a lot of size to carry around. Mims would likely move to LT if they need but one thing they don’t have is a good third OT. Jalen Rivers is a young guy they have but Brian Parker II might be a fill-in if they need to get by. If the offensive line holds up, this offense should be excellent.
The running game wasn’t great last year but the offensive line wasn’t awesome at it and teams simply didn’t respect the passing game without Burrow around. Also, the team fell behind a lot because of the defense and was playing catchup. Chase Brown is a talented RB and put up better numbers than he probably should have given the circumstances. If they get the passing game back with Burrow, Brown’s running lanes become much bigger, and he’ll put them to good use. I don’t feel great about their backups if Brown goes down, Semaje Perine hasn’t been very good at his last few stops. Maybe he has a resurgence returning to the Bengals where he was once at his best.
The two things that have held the Bengals back from being legitimate Super Bowl contenders since their Super Bowl run a few years ago have been Joe Burrow’s health, and their terrible defense. They finally decided to address the defense and attacked the defensive front deficiencies with gusto. They traded their first-round pick for DT Dexter Lawrence. Lawrence can still be a major difference maker up front. He didn’t have much DT help in New York; the Bengals have guys to help him. They signed Jonathan Allen to start next to Lawrence, Allen is aging but if used correctly, can still get it done. That also moves BJ Hill and TJ Slaton to the backup roles and gives the DT spot actual depth. At DE, Myles Murphy finally started to play better at the end of last season, it took three years, but he finally showed some ability. They signed Boye Mafe to be the top edge rusher, he was a rotational guy in Seattle, and they also added to their rotation, they have some guys. Shemar Stewart was their first-round pick in 2025, had a lost year as a rookie, but he’s a talented athlete who won’t be asked to do more than he’s capable of. Also, they drafted Cashius Howell in round two this year and he’s going to be the first true speed rusher off the edge this team has had in years. He’s undersized but he’s lightning quick.
All of the added talent up front should also help their beleaguered LB corps. They drafted Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter in the 2025 draft and those two started and played a lot last year. It wasn’t pretty most of the time, but they let them take their lumps, hoping it will lead to a better future. Having a far more talented and effective front four will certainly help the play of Knight and Barrett. Allowing them to play more freely and without having to deal with as many blockers getting to them. Lawrence and Allen alone will occupy the offensive line in a way that last year’s DTs just couldn’t do and having legitimate pass rushers will make life a lot easier.
The secondary is pretty set at CB with Dax Hill coming off his best season, it helped he was finally healthy. And DJ Turner played well as the other outside CB. Jalen Davis is a solid nickel player and these three all return to do it again. The safety spot is another ball game. They were bad at safety last season, and they gave up big plays because of it. Enter free agent Bryan Cook from the Chiefs. His job is to tackle everything that gets by the first two lines of defense, and he’s excellent at it. They return Jordan Battle who should take over at SS but they hedged their bet by adding Kyle Duggar, a veteran who can also tackle. With a more effective pass rush, the secondary shouldn’t be under constant duress, but Cook gives them a better playmaker when it does happen.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finished 8-9 last season, John Harbaugh was sent packing after 17 years, and they hired the guy they hope is the next Mike Macdonald, Jesse Minter. There’s a good chance Minter is as good as Macdonald, but he has to prove it. It will be a lot easier to do if Lamar Jackson is healthy, he just wasn’t last year. They need his dynamic playmaking on offense because the passing game is almost all him.
Jackson is a superstar when he’s healthy, a two-time MVP. He’s getting a new offensive coordinator this year in Declan Doyle who worked for years with Sean Payton and last season with Ben Johnson, those are great minds to learn from. Doyle will be a first time play caller, it’s not as simple as Payton and Johnson make it look. If Doyle has the dynamic playmaking Jackson at QB, that job is easier, if Jackson is an injured shell of himself, it’s much, much harder.
The WR group isn’t great, and they seem to be hoping a rookie really blossoms right away. Zay Flowers is the volume pass catcher here; he led the team in catches by a lot with 84. Unfortunately, he only had five touchdowns, that’s not great. Rashod Bateman is the other returning starter, and he was mostly useless last year. They drafted two big rookie WRs, Elijah Surratt and Ja’Kobi Lane. Surratt was drafted before Lane, but Lane has been the breakout player of training camp. They could really use his size and skill in the red zone to score some TDs. TE Mark Andrews has slowed down considerably from his heyday but he’s still a guy Lamar is going to trust in tough situations. He’s not catching 80 balls this year, but he’ll be there when Lamar needs him.
The offensive line was atrocious last season, and it was almost exclusively the interior that were bad. Losing C Tyler Linderbaum in free agency isn’t going to help but signing LG John Simpson and drafting RG Vega Ioane is going to fix those two spots. They signed former Browns starting C Ethan Pocic early in training camp as he is just recovered from an injury. He should be the starter immediately because going with Danny Pinter there would be a mistake. LT Ronnie Stanley is still getting it done, even though he’s an aging player with some previous health issues. RT Roger Rosengarten is fine but unspectacular in every way. They don’t have much depth so it’s a precarious situation if anyone goes down.
The running game is in the capable hands of the ageless wonder Derrick Henry. I’ll believe his downfall due to age when I see it, and I haven’t seen it yet. He’s a freak athlete with insane size and speed. If the offensive line can do better, he’s nearly unstoppable. If the passing offense can find a way to push the ball downfield, that helps him even more. Justice Hill is a good speed back who complements Henry’s skill set and he’s a useful player.
The offense suffered last year from Lamar not being healthy, the defense crated when Nnamdi Madubuike went down with an injury. He’s not as well known as Lamar but he’s just as important to this defense as Lamar is to the offense. There was worry he may never play again, it was a neck injury, and that’s still possible but it looks like he’s trying to be back. They need him up front to make Travis Jones and Brandon Washington their best selves. The team did sign another ageless wonder, Calais Campbell, to give them some cover. He’s playing defensive line in the NFL at 40 years old; that’s an amazing feat.
The LBs suffered not having Madubuike up front last season and Roquan Smith just wasn’t himself. Smith is one of the best ILBs in football, but he looked a bit lonely out there. They are hoping Teddye Buchanan can be healthy this season because he looks to have a higher ceiling than what they have been getting from Trenton Simpson. If the line is better up front, that will make the job easier on the ILBs. They finally invested some money in a pass rusher, signing Trey Hendrickson. They traded for Maxx Crosby too, but that deal fell through when Crosby failed his physical. Hendrickson will lead the edge group, but they still need one of the young guys; Tavius Robinson, Mike Greene, or rookie Zion Young to breakout. Robinson holds down the starting job for now, but the competition is there to take that job.
It will be interesting to see how Minter deploys this secondary. He has the ultimate chess piece in Kyle Hamilton. He’s a safety, a nickel, or anything you need him to be. They also signed S Jaylinn Hawkins after losing Alohi Gilman in free agency. Between Hamilton, Hawkins, and Malaki Starks, the Ravens have the three safeties; something they enjoy employing regularly. At CB, they need Nate Wiggins to be healthy on the outside, he’s their best CB. Marlon Humphrey will also start but it depends on how they want to line up with Hamilton. Humphrey is probably best used in the slot but if Hamilton is the nickel, Humphrey is the other outside CB. If Humphrey is inside, then Chidobe Awuzie probably starts outside. They do have some guys like TJ Tampa and rookie Chandler Rivers to look at in camp with both Humphrey and Awuzie aging.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers went 10-7 last year and won this division. The team looks like it’s more talented but the Ravens and Bengals should be healthier and better this season. It’s going to be an uphill climb for Mike McCarthy in a division that’s getting better and having to replace Mike Tomlin. Doing it with 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers is going to be a challenge. The entire coaching staff has been made over so there’s a lot of change for a franchise that has been the model of consistency for so long.
Rodgers was fine but not great last year and some of it was on him and some of it was on the team around him and the offense. He doesn’t move at all like he once did and it really affects the way he runs the offense. He doesn’t want to hold onto the ball very long and he doesn’t extend plays so there’s a lot of short and intermediate routes and not much down the field. Better protection up front would help but if Rodgers isn’t willing to get hit and only looks for the short throws, the offense isn’t going to be much better.
The team relied heavily on TEs last season under Arthur Smith and while McCarthy will use TEs, they invested in some WR help so you should see less two and three TE sets. DK Metcalf is the big-play guy and unfortunately, his downfield prowess is underutilized with Rodgers. They traded for Michael Pittman Jr., and his mastery of the intermediate area should pair quite nicely with Rodgers. They drafted Germie Bernard and Kaden Wetjen and both of them should be good short area guys, and they hope this is Roman Wilson’s breakout year. They still have TE Darnell Washington, who looks like an OT, and Pat Freiermuth is also a guy who should be used more.
The offensive line is in flux. Troy Fautanu has moved from RT to LT and that is probably an upgrade over Broderick Jones who had struggled to really establish himself and was traded to Dallas. Fautanu may not be an All-Pro level guy but he’s a very good player. They were hoping Max Iheanachor would step in at RT but he’s had some injury issues and he’s also inexperienced overall. For now, Dylan Cook is the RT. Inside, C Zach Frazier is one of the better young centers in football and Mason McCormick is moving to LG where he should also excel. RG is Spencer Anderson’s job at the moment, but they have guys like Brock Hoffman and Gennings Dunker waiting in wings if Anderson stumbles.
Jaylen Warren started the season as the lead back last season and was doing well but eventually the job became more of timeshare with Kenny Gainwell. Gainwell looked really good but he left for Tampa Bay. The team signed Rico Dowdle who was very good in Carolina last season and played well in Dallas for McCarthy. Eli Heinenreich becomes the third back after they traded Kaleb Johnson to Green Bay. Heinenreich has a unique skill set and adds another dimension of speed to the backfield.
The defensive line is still anchored by Cam Heyward; he’s 37 years old but he’s still a good player. They gave Keanu Benton a new contract this off season even though he’s not guaranteed to start this year. Yayha Black is set to be the NT; he brings the size and physicality they want at that position. Derrick Harmon was their first-round pick last year and they are looking for a breakout season from him. New defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has plenty of talent to work with on this defense, it should be fun to see what he can do with it.
The LB group is still led by TJ Watt; he missed some games last season and wasn’t his dominant self but he’s still a threat other teams have to worry about. The team signed Nick Herbig to a new contract because he’s a 24-year-old pass rusher who had 7.5 sacks as a part-time player last year. He’s coming for Alex Highsmith’s starting spot even though Highsmith had 9.5 sacks last year. Highsmith is 29 and they invested in the younger player. At ILB they still have Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson who are a solid pair. They don’t have much depth inside, so Queen and Wilson have to hold up.
The secondary is dealing with two questions in the secondary with guys they absolutely need. Joey Porter Jr. and Jalen Ramsey started out on the PUP list, but both made the initial roster as healthy. Porter’s issues go beyond any injury as he wants a new contract and the Steelers may be reluctant to pay him market value, especially with the market exploding with Devon Witherspoon’s new contract and Christian Gonzalez up next. They need Porter but they have Jamel Dean, who they signed in the off season, Asante Samuel Jr has looked good in camp, and they drafted Daylen Everette. Ramsey is moving full-time to safety once he’s back and he’ll pair with free agent pickup Jaquan Brisker. They have DeShon Elliott at safety too and Brandin Echols at CB, they have some depth.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns were bad last year, and it led to an overhaul of the coaching staff, the only problem is I’m not sure it led to an upgrade on the coaching staff. Todd Monken is a smart offensive mind, but he’s mostly been a long-time offensive coordinator without much head coaching experience (and only in college). Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was awesome and after he was passed over for the head coaching job, he quit as DC so now it’s Mike Rutenberg calling the defense. Schwartz had this unit humming and it won’t be an easy transition. They made it even harder, trading away Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. The team picked Deshaun Watson as the starting QB, that’s not a good idea at all. They won five games last year and despite the upgrades they have made on offense, five wins might be aiming a bit high.
Deshuan Watson is entering the final year of his disastrous fully guaranteed contract that has been the albatross around the neck of the Browns since the day he signed it. Their nightmare will finally be over, but they will play him at QB anyway for some reason. Shedeur Sanders was his competition and either choice is bad. Watson will be booed mercilessly, he already has been in the preseason, and Sanders is such a limited player it’s awful all around. The rest of this offense deserves better than these two at QB, the team actually has real playmakers this year.
At WR, Jerry Jeudy isn’t a great player but he’s a solid professional and he’s going to benefit by no longer being the top option at the position. The team drafted KC Concepcion in round one and then doubled down in round two taking Denzell Boston. Boston has already had a breakout training camp looking like a future WR1 and Concepcion has looked good too. These guys push Jeudy to a role he’s better suited for. TE Harold Fannin Jr. was arguably the best pass catcher on the team last year and now he has even more help that takes the pressure off him. If this offense had decent QB play to go with Monken’s play calling, they might have a chance at being fairly dangerous. That’s going to have to wait a year until they can draft a new QB.
The offensive line gets a complete overhaul; it really needed one. They drafted Spencer Fano in round one and while he played RT at Utah, he’s coming in and starting at LT on day one. He’s an upgrade over anyone they played there last season. LG Zion Johnson got a big contract in free agency, I’m not exactly sure why, he wasn’t good for the Chargers. However, maybe in a new system the talent that made him a first-round pick will finally show through. Elgton Jenkins was signed from Green Bay and is penciled in at center. He may be better at RG but unless rookie Parker Brailsford can show he’s starter level at center, Jenkins is their best bet there. Teven Jenkins was a backup for the Browns last year and for now, he’s the RG. The team traded for Tytus Howard from Houston to be their new RT, he should be fine there.
The Browns are on a two-year run of drafting some very good players. Last season it was TE Harold Fannin Jr. and RB Quinshon Judkins who really gave the offense a jump start. Judkins got hurt at the end of the year, but he should be back healthy and he’s a true talent. They also drafted Dylan Sampson and he’s a great complement to Judkins. If the offensive line can stabilize, the running game will be this team’s best friend. Being able to lean on the run means putting less on the plate of either bad QB.
The Browns defense has been excellent for the past few seasons but losing Jim Schwartz and trading away Myles Garrett removes the two biggest pieces to the puzzle and I’m not sure what it looks like without them. I really like Jard Verse, the guy they got in the Garrett trade, he’s an emerging talent, but he’s just not Myles Garrett. They have rarely had a good pass rusher opposite Garrett and Alex Wright and Isaiah McGuire were nice players, but they don’t scare anyone. McGuire becomes the starter with Wright going on IR. DT Maliek Collins was their next best player on the line and he’s dealing with an injury at the moment. They really need Mike Hall Jr. to step up and be a playmaker, and it would help if Mason Graham takes a second-year leap. Graham might be the most talented player on the line who isn’t Verse, he needs to be more impactful.
LB Carson Schwesinger was the defensive rookie of the year last season and was a great pickup by the Browns when they needed one at LB. They signed Quincy Williams in the off season to be the other LB that actually plays next to Schwesinger and he’s a talented player. Last season didn’t go well in New York with the Jets for Williams but he’s better than they allowed him to be last year. These two will be making plays all over the field this year. There’s no real depth, so they need these two to stay healthy and if not, it gets a little rough at LB.
The secondary is led by CB Denzel Ward, one of the more underrated players in the league. He rarely gets mentioned with the best CBs but he is one of the better CB1s in football. The team traded for Tyson Campbell from Jacksonville last season, he’s a bit overpaid but he’s better as a CB2 in Cleveland than being miscast as a CB1 in Jacksonville. They aren’t deep at CB with Myles Harden set to be the nickel and not much beyond him. At safety, SS Grant Delpit and FS Ronnie Hickman hold down the starting roles but the team invested a second-round pick on Emmanuel McNeil-Warren this year. He will be the third guy this year, but he has starter potential sooner or later.
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