Tag: football

2026 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

Just when you think things can’t get any crazier in the NFL, the Ravens trade two first-round picks for Maxx Crosby and then a few days later, they rescind the trade due to a “failed physical”.  I put that in quotations because it feels a little convenient.  They knew he had meniscus surgery in January; the knee stuff wasn’t a surprise.  They then signed Trey Hendrickson to a deal that is suspiciously the same money left on Crosby’s deal.  The Ravens look bad and it’s only one piece of the mock draft puzzle.  The first-round pick (14) goes back to the Ravens now (along with next year’s one).  The Ravens need a new center because the Raiders seriously outbid them for Tyler Linderbaum.  I’m not a conspiracy buff but the Ravens didn’t rescind the trade until the Raiders had stolen Linderbaum.  I’m not saying…but…I’m not, not saying. 

Free agency certainly changed the team needs as is to be expected and so did a trade or two.  My repeated attempts to send RB Jeremiah Love to Kansas City are over with the Chiefs signing Kenneth Walker III.  The Chiefs’ need to refill their secondary becomes paramount with the losses of CB Trent McDuffie (traded), CB Jaylen Watson (signed with the Rams), and S Bryan Cook (headed to the Bengals).  The Panthers no longer have a crying need for a MLB with Devin Lloyd signing and they spent a boatload of money on edge rusher Jaelen Phillips; another need off the checklist.  The Commanders signed two edge rushers, Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson, probably not a priority early in the draft now.  The Dolphins traded WR Jayden Waddle to Denver, that was the big move for the Broncos and that may be a white flag from the Dolphins.  I love trying to put all the pieces together.  Let’s take a look at my latest Mock Draft. 

1. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14): Fernando Mendoza     QB      Indiana

As expected, the Raiders did not go out and sign Malik Willis or trade for Patrick Mahomes (just seeing if you’re paying attention).  This pick is Mendoza; it’s been Mendoza and at this point we could just have him sign his contract and tell the Jets they’re on the clock.  Fernando should find a house, buy it, set up the moving company to take his stuff from Bloomington to Vegas, probably just use the company that moved him from Berkley, CA to Bloomington last year.  Someone give him a key to Raiders’ facilities so he can start working out. 

2. New York Jets (3-14): Arvell Reese     Edge     Ohio St. 

The Jets have been quite aggressive in changing up their defensive personnel for Aaron Glenn.  They traded for DT T’Vondre Sweat and S Minkah Fitzpatrick, and signed Edge Joseph Ossai, DE Kingsley Enagbare, DT David Onyemata, S Dane Belton, and CB Nashon Wright, that looks great for Glenn who is trying to save his job.  The problem is Wright, Belton, Enagbare and Onyemata are all one-year deals, this isn’t a long-term plan.  GM Darren Mougey still needs to set this team up for success in the future even if Glenn isn’t the coach.  The best player available is Arvell Reese who can slot in with these guys just fine.  There are some questions as to whether or not Reese is really an edge player.  His pro day workout showed some issues that might give the Jets some pause.  However, Reese doesn’t have to be an edge player for them with the guys they signed plus Will McDonald around, he can be a LB.  They have Demario Davis, who is 37 and Jamien Sherwood, someone they aren’t completely sold on.  The team will have to decide soon if they are keeping McDonald long-term and Ossai’s contract isn’t prohibitive in any way.  Reese gives Glenn, or any new coaching staff in the future, plenty of versatility to fit into any system.

3. Arizona Cardinals (3-14): Sonny Styles     LB     Ohio St.

I have consistently had the Cardinals trading down because they need a RT and there isn’t great value in taking one here.  They addressed offensive line with the signing of LG Isaac Seamalo, and they also brought in RT Elijah Wilkinson, who started last year for the Falcons.  Styles is such a phenomenal athlete and would change the feel of their defense. Cody Simon was okay at ILB last year and Mack Wilson is fine too, but Styles is a true difference maker.  Teams like the Giants (Tremaine Edmunds) and the Browns (Quincy Williams) addressed LB so there may not be team looking to move up unless the Titans want to move up one spot.  When in doubt, just take the 6’5 240 lbs. athletic freak on defense and call it a day.

4. Tennessee Titans (3-14): David Bailey     DE     Texas Tech

Robert Saleh wants to remake the Titans’ defense and he’s off to an excellent start.  They signed three new CBs (Alontae Taylor, Cor’dale Flott, and Josh Williams) and he rebuilt most of the front four with the trade for DE Jermaine Johnson and signing DT John Franklin-Myers.  David Bailey would be the last piece to a truly overhauled defensive line with Johnson and Bailey at DE and Fraklin-Myers and Jeffrey Simmons inside at DT.  Saleh likes an attacking front four and these guys would fit the bill.  Franklin-Myers can also play DE on running down early to allow Bailey to grow into the role a little more and that would be ideal for him.  The Titans might decide to try to move up for Sonny Styles if they think Arizona might take him, but they can’t go wrong with Styles or Bailey. 

5. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from NYG): Rueben Bain Jr.     DE     Miami

The Chiefs decided not to wait and see if Jeremiah Love would be available to solve their RB problem and they signed Kenneth Walker III instead.  Here they decide not to wait to see who they can get at nine overall, they make a move up to get the pass rusher they want.  They picked up extra draft picks from their trade of Trent McDuffie to the Rams and if they are willing to part with a third-round pick here, they can get ahead of Washington and New Orleans and get Rueben Bain Jr.  With Reese and Bailey gone in the first four picks, the run on edge players scares them into moving up.  Bain is the perfect fit in their defensive scheme, and they desperately need to get more pop off the edge.  The team saw their Super Bowl window slam shut last year and they know they can’t wait around to make some changes. 

6. Cleveland Browns (5-12): Monroe Freeling     LT     Georgia

The Browns are slowly but steadily rebuilding their offensive line.  After trading for Tytus Howard, they re-signed OG Teven Jenkins, and then signed LG Zion Johnson and C/G Elgton Jenkins.  While I wouldn’t say Teven Jenkins is a surefire starter and they overpaid Johnson, technically they have starters at four spots.  That leaves LT still to be filled unless they actually think Dawand Jones is a LT, he’s not.  They may be better playing Jones at RT and moving Howard inside to guard.  Freeling is the guy who climbed the draft boards between the end of the season and the actual draft.  That doesn’t always work out great, but Freeling has the length and athleticism to be a LT in the NFL.  There aren’t many of those guys in this draft, so the Browns take their shot here and hope they find a long-term answer at the position.  This team knows it has time to develop a player like Freeling, they know where they are as a franchise. 

7. Washington Commanders (5-12): Jeremiah Love     RB     Notre Dame

This would be the dream for the Commanders because they desperately need to improve their running game.  The offensive line has some talent and with Jayden Daniels returning to health, the offense can get back on track.  This may come down to a choice between Love and Carnell Tate because they need offensive playmakers everywhere.  Love is an elite prospect and is so far above the other RB prospects, he’s not even in the same universe.  There is far more depth at WR in this draft, and I also still believe Brandon Aiyuk ends up in Washington once the 49ers jettison him.  Love would make for a great backfield mate to Daniels and he’s the top RB on the roster on day one. 

8. New Orleans Saints (6-11): Carnell Tate     WR      Ohio St.

The Saints have Chris Olave at WR and then not much else.  If they want QB Tyler Shough to continue to progress as a player, they need to get him some help.  Tate is the perfect complement to Olave as a big-bodied outside WR who can get down the field but also dominate in the intermediate area.  He would be a great red zone target and pushes guys like Devaughn Vele into more of a support role, where he would be better suited.  The Saints could use some new blood on defense so CB Mansoor Delane or S Caleb Downs are certainly a possibility but giving Shough a chance to succeed is a smart move.   

9. New York Giants (TRADE from KC): Spencer Fano     OL     Utah

The Giants aren’t the most obvious trade down candidate as they could take an o-lineman or they could draft Jeremiah Love or Carnell Tate at five overall, both fill major needs.  However, they don’t have a third-round pick, and this team has plenty of holes to fill.  They need WR, DT, offensive line, and LB help, just to name a few.  Fano has a chance to step in at RG immediately with the potential to be a long-term solution at RT. Some teams also see him as a potential center and this team can’t be too married to the idea of John Michael Schmitz at center since he’s entering the last year of his rookie deal and hasn’t been the picture of consistency.   

10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-11): Mansoor Delane     CB     LSU

The team addressed issues on the defensive line with DT Jonathan Allen and DE Boye Mafe signing.  You can question the wisdom of the Allen signing but they needed a DT and beggars can’t be choosers.  The Bengals’ CBs were solid last season with Dax Hill being healthy, DJ Turner playing well and even Jalen Davis was solid at nickel.  All three of these guys are scheduled to be free agents in 2027 so unless they get working on contracts now, they could lose one, two, or all three next year.  Delane isn’t an elite athlete, he’s actually about as average of an athlete as you’ll find at CB.  However, he’s also excellent in coverage.  At LSU, he showed he could be a man cover corner last season, and that was after three years of being a very good zone corner at Virginia Tech.  His versatility makes him a worthy choice here even if he’s not the superior athlete most teams like at CB. 

11. Miami Dolphins (7-10): Caleb Downs     S     Ohio St.

I doubt anything would please Jeff Hafley more than getting Caleb Downs to start the rebuild of the Dolphins’ secondary.  They’re a blank slate and Downs is arguably the best defensive player in this draft.  Getting him at 11 overall would be a major coup and Hafley was a secondary coach coming up the ranks.  Downs is an immediate starter at safety and the best player in their secondary and it’s not close.  If they think Downs won’t fall this far they do have plenty of draft capital to make a move up if they want after trading WR Jaylen Waddle.  The Waddle trade does mean they will consider WR if guys like Downs and Mansoor Delane are off the board, but if either of those guys are around, they have to take the best defensive player available for the secondary.  WR is a far deeper position and they can find help later. 

12. Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1): CJ Allen     LB     Georgia

This is pretty high for an off-ball LB who isn’t the ridiculous athlete that Sonny Styles is, but the Cowboys are telegraphing this pick with their moves.  Unless they plan on drafting Makai Lemon to be their third WR and turning this offense nuclear, they are looking to fill the ILB role.  They love DeMarvion Overshown but he’s only one ILB and he’s coming off his long rehab season.  Marist Liufau is not the answer next to him.  Allen is a hard-nosed, run-stuffing beast who can help this team continue to improve their run defense and he can be the QB of the defense.  They finally got some beef up front with Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams, now all they need is a tackling machine at the second level, welcome CJ Allen.  There will be talk about the value of taking an off-ball LB at this high of a pick but the Cowboys have never cared about positional value in the draft.  They have routinely taken interior offensive linemen in round one (Tyler Smith, Tyler Booker, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin) despite that not being a valued position.  All of them were excellent picks. 

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): Makai Lemon     WR     USC

The Rams had one glaring need going into this off season and it was outside CB.  They decided to import the Chiefs top two CBs, Trent McDuffie (trade) and Jaylen Watson (free agent) to fix it. The entire Rams offense from the end of the season when Warren McClendon Jr. had taken over at RT returns next season with only Jordan Whittingham stepping into Tutu Atwell’s spot as the third WR.  This team simply doesn’t have a major hole so they take the one guy who can supercharge their offense.  Lemon is from just down the road in Los Angeles at USC and he’s the perfect slot receiver to complement Puka Nacua and Devante Adams.  He gives Sean McVey the chance to only use three TE sets when he wants to and not because he needs to.  Lemon plays bigger than his size and still gives you excellent speed and route running in the slot.  This offense was excellent before and they just got better. 

14. Baltimore Ravens (back from Las Vegas): Kenyon Sadiq     TE     Oregon

This pick belonged to the Raiders for a few days but it’s back to Baltimore after the Maxx Crosby trade was rescinded.  The Ravens’ needs have changed after signing Trey Hendrickson at edge and John Simpson at guard, addressing their two biggest needs.  They still need a center after losing Tyler Linderbaum to the Raiders crazy free agent offer but there are no centers here to take.  Sadiq isn’t usually mocked to the Ravens, but they did just lose Isaiah Likely to the Giants and Charlie Kolar to the Chargers.  They need depth and their new offensive coordinator is Declan Doyle.  Doyle came up under Sean Payton, a coach who loves a good, versatile TE for his passing game.  Just think of guys like Jimmy Graham, Taysom Hill, and even Payton trying to make Evan Engram happen in Denver last year.  Doyle also then spent last year in Chicago under Ben Johnson using Colston Loveland as a weapon in the Bears’ offense.  Johnson was the guy who made Sam LaPorta so incredible in Detroit.  Doyle could see Sadiq as the guy who can give the offense some punch and playmaking. 

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (TRADE from TB): Olaivavega Ioane     OG     Penn St. 

This would be a smart move for the Steelers as they need a LG after losing Isaac Seamalo in free agency. If Ioane falls this far the Steelers can use some of their 12 picks to move up and Tampa Bay could use a few more picks in this draft to address some needs.  The Steelers filled their long-standing need for a WR with their trade for Michael Pittman Jr. from Indianapolis.  Pittman is a fantastic addition and a great complement to DK Metcalf.  Everyone is operating under the assumption Aaron Rodgers will be back at QB, whether that’s good or bad is a matter of perspective.  Having a solid offensive line is an absolute necessity if Rodgers is the QB, Ioane helps that.  They filled holes at CB (Jamel Dean), RB (Rico Dowdle), and safety (Jaquan Brisker) in free agency.  Ioane gives them another young, talented offensive lineman and he feels like a Steeler.  He’s a powerful run blocker and an excellent pass protector who fits the offense quite well.

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis): Jermod McCoy     CB     Tennessee

The Jets signed a number of defensive backs to reconfigure their secondary but that shouldn’t stop them from taking McCoy.  CB Nashon Wright was only signed to a one-year deal and CB Brandon Stephens could be gone after the season if they want out of his deal.  McCoy is a guy coming off a missed season due to his torn ACL, but he should be ready for next season.  The good news is the Jets wouldn’t have to rush him onto the field but he’s well worth taking as he could eventually be a CB1.  The Jets need talent; McCoy might be the best CB in this draft. 

17. Detroit Lions (9-8): Kadyn Proctor     OT     Alabama

It feels strange to put Proctor ahead of Francis Mauigoa but Mauigoa isn’t a LT prospect and Proctor is the next best LT prospect after Freeling.  Proctor would fit the Lions offensive scheme that is predicated on power running and he fills the huge hole created when they released Taylor Decker.  Decker is 32 and coming off an injury plagued season so moving on is understandable, but it won’t be easy.  Proctor is a mammoth individual at 6’7 352 lbs. and he has excellent athleticism even if he can be a bit heavy-footed going side to side.  It is possible they will take Mauigoa and either play him at LG or move Penei Sewell to LT and play Mauigoa at RT.  He does fit the profile of a power player on the offensive line like the Lions prefer.  LT is the more important position than LG and taking Proctor just lets Sewell continue to dominate at RT instead of having to move more people around.

18. Minnesota Vikings (9-8): Dillon Thieneman     S     Oregon

The Vikings feel like they addressed their biggest issue with the signing of Kyler Murray to “compete” against JJ McCarthy at QB.  This is even less of a competition than Daniel Jones vs. Anthony Richardson was in Indianapolis last year.  If they won’t say it, I will, Kyler Murray is the starting QB.  I’m not a Kyler fan but he’s better than McCarthy.  They didn’t have many holes on the roster to address and signed CB James Pierre, that’s a solid pickup.  The one other major loss is Harrison Smith probably won’t be back a safety.  They have Josh Mettelus and Theo Jackson, but Brian Flores likes to use three safeties.  Thieneman put on a show at the combine with his incredible athleticism and he’s a great successor to Smith. He gives Flores all the versatility he needs in his safety group to keep the defense at its highest level.   

19. Carolina Panthers (8-9): Jordyn Tyson     WR     Arizona St.

The Panthers took a WR in round one last year, but Tyson would be too good to pass up here.  The Panthers filled their biggest needs in free agency with LT Rasheed Walker, C Luke Fortner, LB Devin Lloyd, and edge rusher Jaelen Phillips.  The rest of the roster seems solid, but Tyson would be a major upgrade over Xavier Leggette who stills leaves a lot to be desired.  Pairing Tetairoa McMillan with Jordan Tyson on the outside with Jalen Coker in the slot would leave no excuses for Bryce Young.  This would be one of the better young WR groups in the NFL if Tyson stays healthy.  The only reason he falls this far in the draft is due to questions about his durability.  Leggette’s presence would mean Tyson wouldn’t have to carry a heavy load early on and could ease into the job.     

20. New England Patriots (TRADE from Dallas): Francis Mauigoa     OL     Miami

The Patriots have eleven picks in this draft and with all of their free agent shopping the last two years and their draft last season, they don’t have glaring needs.  They signed Alijah Vera-Tucker to be their LG but he’s a coin flip at best to be healthy each game and there’s really no chance you should count on him for 17 games.  RT Morgan Moses is 35 and could fall off the cliff at any moment and they don’t have anyone of note behind him.  If Mauigoa starts to fall to this range of the draft the Patriots should trade up to get ahead of teams like the Chargers and the Bills who may be looking for interior help.  He has the ability to play guard so he’s insurance against Vera-Tucker’s inevitable injury and he’s the heir apparent to Moses at RT.  Last season, the Patriots lacked power at LG as Jared Wilson was overmatched physically, that wouldn’t be a problem if Mauigoa played there.  The worst-case scenario would be in two years Mauigoa replaces Michael Onwenu at RG. 

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TRADE from Pittsburgh): Akheem Mesidor     Edge     Miami

The Buccaneers lost WR Mike Evans to free agency, and they simply can’t replace him. They still have Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Tez Johnson so they won’t even try to replace Evans here.  They also lost CB Jamel Dean and DL Logan Hall in free agency, but they drafted Benjamin Morrison at CB last year and they picked up free agent A’Shawn Robinson to replace Hall.  That will allow them to find the best player for their defense and this defense needs an edge rusher.  Mesidor was fantastic at Miami last year and while Miami played him at DE, he’ll move to OLB here and it’s a solid move for him.  Mesidor isn’t the longest edge player so moving off the line a bit should be a better fit.  He will already be 25 in his rookie season so there’s not a lot of time to waste and the Bucs are looking for help right now.  The Bucs pick up an extra pick from the Steelers to move down a few spots and still get a guy they need. 

22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6): Denzel Boston     WR     Washington

It feels a little strange having the Chargers taking a WR in round one with Jim Harbaugh as the head coach, but he clearly recognized the offense wasn’t good enough last year.  He hired Mike McDaniel to fix it and while McDaniel’s Miami offenses were predicated on speed, they did that to match personnel.  Harbaugh wants to run the ball, McDaniel is excellent at that, but the passing game has to be better.  WR Quentin Johnston has been the definition of inconsistent, and they have to make a decision on his future here soon.  Ladd McConkey is the underneath, slot guy while Tre Harris started to get more playing time as the deep threat.  Boston would be the perfect fit in this group.  He’s a big, powerful receiver who is excellent in the intermediate area, a true red zone threat, and would allow Justin Herbert to attack all areas of the field.  At 6’4 212 lbs., he’s a big-bodied WR who plays tough and can run after the catch, another thing McDaniel would be able to use on offense. 

23. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): Keldric Faulk     DE     Auburn

The Eagles are an expensive team with some tough decisions coming up and they made one decision this off season that could have ripple effects.  They signed DT Jordan Davis to an extension, and it may mean they look to move on from Jalen Carter.  A year ago, that would have seemed crazy, but Carter had a down year, and Davis stepped up big time.  GM Howie Roseman loves to pick trench players, offensive or defensive side doesn’t really matter to him.  Getting Faulk, a guy who doesn’t turn 21 until September, feels like Howie making a move to cover for himself a year early.  If the team looks to trade Carter instead of paying him and Davis, Faulk can be the DE on one side of Davis.  Faulk isn’t a twitchy edge player like a lot of the pass rushers in this draft.  He’s 6’6 274 lbs. and is a power end who stuffs the run.  He’s never going to be a high sack guy and that’s fine, that’s not what the Eagles would ask him to do. 

24. Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville): Omar Cooper Jr.     WR     Indiana

The Browns have overhauled their offensive line, their defense really doesn’t need any help unless it’s young depth, and they desperately need a QB but that’s a problem for 2027.  They could look at Ty Simpson, but they are set up to draft a QB next year so getting some more help for that guy now would be nice.  They will still have Jerry Jeudy on the books for a couple of years, and they seem to like Isaiah Bond.  Neither of those guys should stop them from getting a playmaker like Cooper.  Cooper isn’t the biggest or fastest WR but he’s an excellent route runner and would be a QBs best friend. 

25. Chicago Bears (11-6): Emmanuel McNeil-Warren     S     Toledo

Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Jonathan Owens, and CJ Gardner-Johnson were all free agents, and I thought the Bears would re-sign one or two of them, they didn’t.  They did sign Coby Bryant from Seattle but as of now their other starting safety is…Cam Lewis? I guess.  That’s not ideal.  Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is an excellent prospect out of a small school that seems to be making solid defensive backs lately.  McNeil-Warren has the size and skill set to be starter and having a veteran like Coby Bryant and the rest of that secondary around him would be very helpful for a rookie. 

26. Buffalo Bills (12-5): Kayden McDonald     NT     Ohio St.

The Bills filled their biggest need with their trade for DJ Moore and while I could argue they should pick up another WR, I’m guessing they will try to get something out of Josh Palmer this year.  The defense is taking on more of a 3-4 alignment with new head coach Joe Brady hiring Jim Leonhard to run it.  That means they need a true NT and 6’8 Deone Walker is not the guy you want to try to play at NT.  McDonald is 6’3 330 lbs. run-stuffing beast who is built exactly how you want a NT to be built and plays the game like an immovable object.  Put Walker and Ed Oliver on either side of McDonald and you have yourself the start of a solid three-man front for your defense. 

27. San Francisco 49ers (12-5): KC Concepcion      WR     Texas A&M

The 49ers have added two free agent WRs and traded for one DT.  They signed the biggest WR they could, bringing Mike Evans to be their top outside threat.  Evans isn’t young anymore but he’s still 6’5 and a ball winner when it counts. They also signed Christian Kirk as a stopgap at slot receiver; he’s not a long-term plan.  They traded a third-round pick for DT Osa Odighizuwa, an excellent DT who improves the middle of the defense.  The offense still needs playmakers with Ricky Pearsall the only WR of note, besides Evans, and George Kittle likely to miss at least most of the season after his Achilles tear in the playoffs.  Enter KC Concepcion, the slot receiver from the Aggies.  He’s a shorter player at 5’11 but he’s nearly 200 lbs. so he can play over the middle with his size.  He’s quick and deadly with his change of direction and will give Kyle Shanahan a solid piece in the passing game.  Kirk’s presence means Concepcion won’t be rushed but the kid can make plays.   

28. Houston Texans (12-5): Peter Woods     DT     Clemson

The Texans’ roster is in very good shape; the one area they could use some help is at DT.  Unfortunately for them, the DT position isn’t exactly great.  Caleb Banks was looking like a solid choice until he broke his foot at the combine, adding that to his foot injury during the season and his stock is way down.  Woods was the top DT prospect coming into the season, but he had tough year at Clemson.  He’s still a talented player but teams have to ask themselves if his play was on him or if it was a Clemson thing, other Clemson guys weren’t great either.  Woods is the type of penetrating DT the Texans like, they have Sheldon Rankins, who does it well.  Rankins is aging so getting a guy who can spell him now and eventually replace him would be a smart move. 

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from LA Rams): Caleb Lomu     OT     Utah

The Chiefs would likely jump at the chance to take Jermod McCoy or Mansoor Delane but they will be long gone.  They won’t spend a first-round pick on just any CB, they have found starters in mid and late rounds before. I think they will settle for a mid-round CB and take Lomu.  Lomu is excellent value at this point in the draft.  He’s perfect for them now because he’s a young player and they don’t have to start him right away because they have Jaylon Moore to play at RT.  Moore only has one more year on his deal so Lomu can sit for the year, if necessary, but he also gives them a potential LT alternative if Josh Simmons has any other personal issues he has to deal with.  The hope would be in two years they have Simmons at LT and Lomu at RT and have a great pair of young OTs for the next decade. 

30. Miami Dolphins (from Denver): Cashius Howell     Edge Texas A&M

The Dolphins can go in just about any direction here, but Howell would give them a dynamic edge player to line up opposite Chop Robinson.  They signed Josh Uche and David Ojabo but neither of those guys are going to stop them from bringing in some real talent.  Howell is undersized and isn’t great against the run but that’s what the veterans are for, to give him some time to adjust to the NFL.  The Dolphins are nearly a clean slate so it’s hard to predict where they will go in the draft but taking a talented pass rusher who can get to the QB seems like a good idea. 

31. Dallas Cowboys (TRADE from NE): Aveion Terrell     CB     Clemson

The Cowboys signed Cobie Durant from the Rams and he’s a solid player, but he shouldn’t stop them from drafting a guy with the upside of Terrell.  DaRon Bland has been a good starter for them when healthy but that’s not a given anymore.  Bland can play the slot while Durant and Terrell play the outside, or Terrell could give them snaps in the slot.  Either way, with the makeup of this defense and new defensive coordinator Christian Parker being around, expect the team to address their need at CB. 

32. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Seattle): Blake Miller     OT     Clemson

The Seahawks have four picks in this draft, so they are motivated to move off this pick to save some money after re-signing Jaxon Smith-Njigba and with Devon Witherspoon next in line for a raise.  The Raiders move up to get themselves a new RT who would fit nicely into their revamped offensive line.  Miller is a big man with good mobility and great toughness.  If they are investing in QB Fernando Mendoza with the first pick of this round, it’s a wise move to get him a new OT with the last pick of the round.   

Round 2

33. New York Jets: Jacob Rodriguez     LB     Texas Tech

The Jets just signed Demario Davis but he’s 37 years old and their other ILB is Jamien Sherwood who I’m not sure they even like anymore.  Rodriguez isn’t the most physically intimidating LB but he’s just plain good.  They need more good players.   

34. Arizona: Max Iheanachor     OT     Arizona St.

The Cardinals signed Elijah Wilkinson as a stopgap RT, he started as an injury replacement all last season for the Falcons.  They can do better.  Iheanachor is still raw and Wilkinson could give him some time to adjust but he’s a much better talent for the long-term.

35. Tennessee: Chase Bisontis      OG     Texas A&M

The Titans have addressed many of their needs in free agency, especially on the defense.  One area of concern is still the interior of the offensive line.  It doesn’t look like Kevin Zeitler will be back at RG so Bisontis would be an immediate starter.  He’s a talented interior player and a better option than free agent signee Cordell Volson.

36. Seattle: Colton Hood     CB     Tennessee

When you’re the Super Bowl champs you don’t generally have glaring needs so it’s smart to look at where you lost someone in free agency.  They let Riq Woolen leave in free agency and while they re-signed Josh Jobe, it leaves them a little thin at CB.  They also lost Coby Bryant at safety so if they wanted to use Devon Witherspoon at nickel so Nick Emmanwori can play safety, Hood would give them an outside CB who can step into Witherspoon’s spot.    

37. New York Giants: Caleb Banks     DT     Florida

The Giants were awful at stopping the run last year even with some real investments in their front seven.  They weren’t great on the interior of the defensive line and their LBs were bad.  They cut Bobby Okereke and replaced him with Trumaine Edmunds and here they draft Banks.  Banks has a foot issue to worry about but taking him at 37 is a steal.  If he’s healthy all season, he changes the defensive line immensely. 

38. Houston: TJ Parker     DE     Clemson

While the Texans already took a defensive lineman in round one with Peter Woods, they doubled up by taking a DE here, Woods’ Clemson teammate Parker.  Parker was a top prospect who fell a little in this draft because he had a less than stellar year at Clemson.  He’s still a talented edge rusher.  The Texans have Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, but Hunter will be 32 this season, he’s getting really expensive, and they are going to have to spend a ton to keep Anderson pretty soon.  Getting a younger, cheaper alternative at DE is smart play, especially when they are getting Parker at a discount. 

39. Cleveland: Gennings Dunker     OL     Iowa

The Browns grabbed Monroe Freeling to play LT and that would give them five new starters but only if Teven Jenkins is the RG, they can do better.  Dunker is a beast who played RT in college but should be a road grader at guard in the NFL.   

40. Kansas City: Chris Johnson     CB     San Diego St.

Johnson looks like an average athlete on the field, but he proved at the combine that’s not actually true, he’s a very good athlete.  He’s 6’0 193 lbs. and he can play man or zone coverage equally well.  His versatility will be the thing Steve Spagnuolo loves about him, and he’ll be starting fairly early because I just think he’s better than Kristian Fulton.

41. Cincinnati: Christen Miller     DT      Georgia

Jonathan Allen and BJ Hill are slated to be the Bengals starting DTs, they are both 31.  TJ Slaton was supposed to be their big free agent signing last year that they brought in to stop the run, it didn’t work.  Miller is an underappreciated player from Georgia who should blossom in the NFL.  He does all the dirty work but there is untapped potential in his game. 

42. New Orleans: Lee Hunter     DT      Texas Tech

Even with the departure of LB Demario Davis and the expected departure of Cam Jordan, this front seven still has too many guys on the wrong side of 30.  One of those is NT Davon Godchaux who will be 32 this season and they are going to need a new nose tackle soon.  It’s the perfect fit for Hunter who doesn’t fit in all alignments on defense but is perfect to fill that spot in New Orleans.    

43. Miami: Emmanuel Pregnon     OG     Oregon

Miami took two defensive playmakers in the round one, now it’s time to address the offense.  They signed OG Jamaree Salyer in free agency and they have LG Jonah Savaiinaea who they drafted in the second-round last year.  I’m not convinced either is a great fit in Bobby Slowik’s offense.  Salyer has never been great inside at guard even though he’s built like one and Savaiinaea struggled last season.  Pregnon fits any scheme and he’s better than either of these guys.  Keeping Malik Willis upright would really help this offense.  

44. New York Jets: Germie Bernard     WR     Alabama

The Jets addressed all three levels of their defense with their first three picks, time for some offense.  Bernard isn’t flashy but this team has Garrett Wilson and AD Mitchell for flash, they need substance.  Geno Smith will appreciate Bernard being exactly where he’s supposed to be, exactly when he’s supposed to be there. 

45. Baltimore: Sam Hecht     C     Kansas St.

The Ravens can’t go too far into this draft without finding Tyler Linderbaum’s replacement at center.  There aren’t really any centers with good size for their scheme, so they go with Hecht who has the technique to play any style of offense.  I was tempted to go with Logan Jones just to replace one Iowa center with another, but he’s much more of a zone-only center and that’s not what the Ravens will likely run. 

46. Tampa Bay: Jake Golday     LB     Cincinnati

Tampa signed Alex Anzalone from the Lions, he’s a solid LB but they need more help.  Golday is a supreme athlete who isn’t your typical LB prospect, he’s hard to slot into just one role.  He would give Todd Bowles some flexibility at LB and he would likely replace SirVocea Dennis in a lot of alignments.

47. Indianapolis: Anthony Hill Jr.     LB     Texas

The Colts are basically staring over at LB after trading Zaire Franklin.  The guys on the roster have no experience to speak of.  If you’re going to start over at LB, Anthony Hill Jr. is a good place to start.  He’s an excellent three-down LB and he can run your defense from day one.  He’s fast, athletic, he can cover, and he can tackle, what more could you ask for? 

48. Atlanta: Zion Young     Edge     Missouri

The Falcons traded this year’s first rounder last year to draft James Pearce Jr. and now James Pearce Jr. has been charged with four felonies (Google it, it’s a truly horrible episode I would not like to discuss here).  Not only is his NFL future uncertain at best, so is his future freedom.  They signed Azeez Ojulari and Samson Ebukam, but those guys are coming off injuries. Young gives them a solid power edge player to line up opposite Jalon Walker.    

49. Minnesota: Malachi Lawrence     Edge      UCF

Lawrence is a late rising prospect who really opened some eyes at the combine.  This may end up being too low for his eventual spot.  The Vikings are exploring trading Jonathan Greenard for some salary cap relief, and they will need another pass rusher if they do that.  Even if they keep Greenard, his contract is getting expensive and his counterpart, Andrew Van Ginkle is 31.  They should be looking for a long-term partner for Dallas Turner on the edge. 

50. Detroit: Gabe Jacas     Edge     Illinois

With the addition of LT Kadyn Proctor in this mock draft and C Cade Mays in free agency, the offensive line issues should be addressed.  On defense, they still don’t have an edge rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson, and they need to replace Alex Anzalone at LB.  Jacas is great value and far better than any LB left on the board.  Jacas is almost always described as a rugged DE, I can’t think of a description Dan Campbell would love more. 

51. Carolina: Ty Simpson     QB     Alabama

I’ve been struggling with where to put Simpson, he’s not a guy teams are going to draft to start right away.  However, he has starting potential.  The Panthers traded Andy Dalton to Philly, and they signed Kenny Pickett to be the backup.  Bryce Young has been good enough to not be outright discarded but what if Dan Morgan and Dave Canales aren’t sold.  This would be like the Eagles drafting Jalen Hurts when they had Carson Wentz as their starter.  Wentz failed and the Eagles didn’t miss a beat.  If Young struggles again, Simpson could be their answer.  This would be one of the more intriguing places Simpson could get drafted.  He wouldn’t take Young’s job immediately, but he would ratchet up the pressure on Young to be better.   

52. Green Bay: Brandon Cisse     CB     South Carolina

The Packers are counting on Micah Parsons to be healthy and Lukas Van Ness to finally be relevant at edge rusher.  If they aren’t, the secondary is not equipped to handle the pressure.  Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, and Benjamin St. Juste are not good enough at CB.  The Packers have a size threshold for their CBs, so D’Angelo Ponds is off the table for them.  Cisse had round one buzz early, but other guys passed him.  He still has starter potential and that makes him a solid choice for the Packers.

53. Pittsburgh: Zachariah Branch     WR     Georgia

The Steelers roster is actually in solid shape overall, if you consider Aaron Rodgers a solid choice at QB, it seems dubious to me.  One area of need is still at WR, even with the addition of Michael Pittman Jr.  The next best WR after DK Metcalf and Pittman is either Roman Wilson and his 12 catches from last year or Ben Skowronek.  Branch needs to work on his route running but he can be a slot merchant right away.  If Aaron Rodgers is the QB, he will hate the way Branch runs routes, but he will love the fact that he’s open almost immediately so Rodgers can dump the ball off to him.

54. Philadelphia: Chris Bell     WR     Louisville

The AJ Brown divorce from Philadelphia is coming at some point.  It may not happen this off season, but it is inevitable.  Bell is a big, physical WR who uses his strength to bully opponents and he’s excellent after the catch.  The only reason he’s still here is because he’s coming off a knee injury.  If the Eagles keep Brown into the season, Bell may be healthy enough by the trade deadline to allow them to move Brown then.   

55. Los Angeles Chargers: R Mason Thomas     Edge     Oklahoma

The Chargers re-signed Khalil Mack at age 35 and they still have Tuli Tuipulotu on the edge, that’s the same two they started last season with.  Last year they traded for Odafe Oweh because they needed more pass rush, now Oweh is in Washington.  They need some speed off the edge and that is Thomas’ specialty.  He’s not a big guy but they have Mack to play on run downs.  Thomas is the designated speed rusher to start the year, and he gives them some juice off the edge. 

56. Jacksonville: Josiah Trotter     LB     Missouri

The Jaguars suffered a major loss when LB Devin Lloyd signed with Carolina.  Trotter isn’t the all-around LB Lloyd is but he’s a solid MLB prospect who can fill a need as a run-stuffer early in his career as he rounds out his game overall.

57. Chicago: Dani Dennis-Sutton     DE     Penn St.

The Bears need some help opposite DE Montez Sweat and while Dennis-Sutton wasn’t the most productive player at Penn St. he was a solid player.  He showed excellent athleticism at the combine although he doesn’t show it on the field.  He is the size profile Dennis Allen prefers so he’s the pick here.

58. San Francisco: Eli Stowers     TE     Vanderbilt

Stowers is an elite athlete who is a pass catching TE only.  If you need a blocking TE, this isn’t your guy.  George Kittle will be rehabbing a torn Achilles most of the season and this offense needs a TE who can be a part of the passing game.  Jake Tonges is a nice player, but Stowers would be a weapon. 

59. Houston: Max Klare     TE     Ohio St.

The Texans have Dalton Schultz and that’s nice, but he’s ageing and they need some depth.  Klare is a solid all-around TE who can be a security blanket for CJ Stroud and give you some real production. 

60. Chicago: Keylan Rutledge     OG     Vanderbilt

Chicago had to make a trade for C Garrett Bradbury when Drew Dalman suddenly retired because while they are good on the interior of the offensive line, they are not deep.  Joe Thuney is 34 and Jonah Jackson is 29 and hasn’t always been the healthiest.  Rutledge is a stud run blocking guard and would give them some depth inside and someone to eventually replace one of the guards.

61. Los Angeles Rams: Connor Lew     C     Auburn

This would be the perfect situation for Connor Lew.  The Rams have Coleman Shelton at center and he’s a trusted veteran.  However, he’s 31 and he’s not some superstar, he’s just a solid player.  Lew is coming off a torn ACL and probably won’t be ready to start the year.  He is talented enough to take the job from Shelton when he’s healthy, but he wouldn’t be needed this year necessarily.

62. Denver: Dominique Orange     DT     Iowa St.

The Brocos defense is excellent and while Orange wouldn’t be a one-for-one replacement for John Franklin-Myers, he would allow them to move some guys around.  They don’t have a traditional NT on the team and Orange would give them one.  That would allow Malcolm Roach and DJ Jones to be used in a rotation along the line.

63. New England: Derrick Moore     Edge     Michigan

The Patriots signed Dre’Mont Jones, a very solid veteran edge player who gives them more in the run game than K’Lavon Chaisson did last season.  They still need more help on the edge as Harold Landry is aging and coming off an injury, and the rest of the depth chart is unproven.  Moore would be the perfect player to eventually replace Landry.

64. Seattle: Jadarian Price     RB     Notre Dame

The Seahawks may try to move down from this spot too just to pick up another pick but if they keep it, it’s hard to see them not taking a RB.  Maybe it’s Mike Washington Jr. from Arkansas and not Price because of Washington’s speed but I like Price.  I think he’s just scratching the surface of his talent and Seattle lost Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet is coming off a torn ACL in January.  They need someone to carry the load early in the season.                   

NFL Coaching Carousel

The NFL took the crazy season to a new level with John Harbaugh getting fired by the Ravens after 18 seasons and Mike Tomlin walking away from the Steelers after 19 years.  These were the two longest tenured coaches in the league, and both are Super Bowl winners.  Add them to two-time winning Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland and the only AFC North coach coming back next year is Zac Taylor in Cincinnati.  Taylor could have been fired but the Bengals don’t like to fire coaches with time left on their contracts so Taylor will be on the firing line next year.

There will be nine new head coaches next year, that’s a lot.  It’s almost always somewhere between 5-8 each off season so nine is on the high side, although it’s not unheard of.  The jobs are the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, and Arizona Cardinals.  I’ll take a look here at each job and give you some thoughts on who’s up for the job, who I would recommend, and my prediction for each opening.  At the end I’ll throw in some thoughts on some coordinator openings that are intriguing.  Let’s dive in.

New York Giants

Out: Brian Daboll-fired in season

In: John Harbaugh-finalizing a deal

The Giants wasted no time getting Harbaugh in for an interview and they are moving fast.  With Mike Tomlin looking to take at least a year off, Harbaugh is the top candidate for pretty much everyone and he was just deciding where to interview.  The Giants are a good job with QB Jaxson Dart, RB Cam Skattebo, WR Malik Nabers, LT Andrew Thomas, DT Dexter Lawrence, Edge rushers Adbul Carter and Brian Burns, and some other young talent on defense.  Having QB, WR, LT, DT, and DE looking good means your team is off to a good start.  It will be interesting to see how it shakes out with GM Joe Schoen, who has been retained so far, and a new coach with as much leverage as Harbaugh has. 

The luck may have turned for the Giants because they have had a series of misses at head coach and were looking at another tough coaching search without a great list of candidates until Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti gifted them Harbaugh.  Maybe they would have ended up with Stefanski but no one has the resume of Harbaugh at this point (since Tomlin’s not taking a job).

My Recommendation: Definitely would have been Harbaugh.

My Prediction: None, Harbaugh already has the job.

Baltimore Ravens

Out: John Harbaugh

Top Candidates: Jesse Minter, Anthony Weaver, Kevin Stefanski, Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores, Klint Kubiak, Vance Joseph

With Harbaugh gone and likely taking OC Todd Monken with him to New York, this is a complete reboot of the coaching staff.  The Ravens have been built on their defense for a long time and have had some excellent defensive coaches who have moved elsewhere.  Mike Macdonald is the one that got away as he’s the head coach in Seattle now.  If they are looking for someone similar, Jesse Minter is that guy.  Minter is the Chargers DC and he’s been awesome.  He’s still young at 42 but he has great experience.  He coached for the Ravens as a defensive assistant, was also the National Championship winning DC under Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, and now has had two excellent years running the Chargers defense. 

Anthony Weaver is another coach who spent time on the defensive staff for the Ravens before he took over the Dolphins defense a couple years ago. People rave about Weaver as a leader and he once served as the Assistant Head Coach of the Ravens for John Harbaugh.  Weaver also worked with Mike Vrabel when Vrabel was in Houston.  Minter and Weaver should be at the top of the Ravens list because they know the team, they understand the culture, and they are two guys who have earned their shot. 

Kevin Stefanski is an excellent coach who’s been in a horrible situation.  Jim Schwartz has been a great defensive coordinator for a long time in the NFL.  So has Brian Flores and he deserves another shot.  Vance Joseph is coordinating the best defense in the league and he’s worthy too. 

My Recommendation: Hire Minter, he can keep the culture while making the right changes.

My Prediction: Jesse Minter – The Ravens regret letting Mike Macdonald get away, Minter is the closest they get to him. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Out: Mike Tomlin

Top Candidates: Brian Flores, Chris Shula, Kevin Stefanski, Nate Scheelhaase, Anthony Weaver, Ejiro Evero

The Steelers don’t do this very often, only 3 coaches since 1969.  When they hired Bill Cowher and when they hired Tomlin, those weren’t hot coaching candidates, they were just the guys they liked the best in the interview room.  That makes this tough because we aren’t in the room to see what they see.  Their list has some young and intriguing choices like Chris Shula and Nate Scheelhaase from the Rams.  Shula, the grandson of the great Don Shula has been Sean McVay’s DC for the past two seasons and he’s been excellent.  After the team lost Aaron Donald to retirement and Jalen Ramsey left, everyone expected a downturn, it didn’t happen.  Shula is a bright, young defensive mind.  Nate Scheelhaase is the passing game coordinator for Sean McVay’s Rams and he’s seen as an up-and-comer.  He’s only been an NFL coach for two seasons, he came from being Iowa St.’s OC to work with McVay.  He could blow them away in the process. 

Stefanski, again is an excellent coach but probably not their guy.  Anthony Weaver might have some of that Tomlin interview energy and that also goes for Evero.  Neither one of them coordinated elite defenses this year but it is more about them as leaders than X’s and O’s guys.  Flores spent a year coaching LBs for Tomlin after he left Miami and so there is some familiarity to the organization.

My Recommendation: Anthony Weaver. He feels like a guy who could keep the Tomlin culture going but give it a refresh. 

My Prediction: Chris Shula-he just feels like the type of young guy they will like. 

Atlanta Falcons

Out: Raheem Morris

Top Candidates: Jeff Hafley, Mike McDaniel, Kevin Stefanski, Klint Kubiak, Anthony Weaver, Aden Durde

The Falcons are starting the whole thing over with Matt Ryan being hired to be President of Football Operations and he’s in charge of hiring a new GM and head coach.  I’m not sure where he’s leaning at GM but he could have some strong feelings on head coach. Jeff Hafley coached at Boston College and Matt Ryan is an alumnus.  They weren’t there at the same time but certainly Ryan knows Hafley.  Ryan did cross paths with Mike McDaniel who was an offensive assistant for the Falcons when Ryan was the QB.  Ryan had his most success under Kyle Shanahan and that’s who McDaniel worked under before being a head coach.  McDaniel also would have crossed paths with Jeff Ulbrich in Atlanta when they were both assistants.  The Falcons would like to keep Ulbrich as their DC and McDaniel may be open to that.

Stefanski is going to be up for most jobs so I’m mentioning him here.  He isn’t connected to Ryan but his offense would work for the Falcons.  Klint Kubiak is a hot OC who could get a job and he runs the Shanahan offense too.  Weaver is a guy well liked in the league and well respected in coaching circles.  Aden Durde is a new name for most but he’s the DC in Seattle under Mike Macdonald so his name is going to keep coming up. 

My Recommendation: Mike McDaniel, if anyone is going to save Michael Penix as a franchise QB, it’s him.

My Prediction: Mike McDaniel- I just can’t get the fit with Ryan and with Ulbrich out of my mind. The only question is will McDaniel like the idea of Michael Penix at QB.  If he doesn’t, he’s the most overqualified OC candidate for the top teams looking for an OC. 

Miami Dolphins

Out: Mike McDaniel

Top Candidates: Jeff Hafley, Kevin Stefanski, Robert Saleh, Joe Brady, Anthony Campanile, Chris Shula

The Dolphins fired GM Chris Grier during the season and then waited a few extra days after then end of the season to fire Mike McDaniel.  The firing coincided with the Ravens firing John Harbaugh and felt like a reaction to it and many assumed owner Stephen Ross might make a play for Harbaugh.  That didn’t happen and he hired Jon-Eric Sullivan as GM from Green Bay.  Sullivan was in Green Bay a long time and so he has connections to current Packers DC Jeff Hafley and former Packers defensive assistant Anthony Campanile.  Hafley might just have a leg up here because of that but Campanile has really impressed this year as the Jaguars DC.  It could be a dogfight between the two of them.  This isn’t the most attractive job because you have to figure out the QB situation with Tua. 

Stefanski, yep he’s still here and is a solid candidate.  Saleh is a guy who really rehabbed his coaching stock by taking the MASH unit that is San Fransico’s defense and doing quite well.  He made people remember what made him such a great coach before the Jets fiasco.  Joe Brady hasn’t gotten a lot of requests to interview and it may be because the Bills are still playing.  I’m throwing Chris Shula in here but I wouldn’t think he would want to take his first head coaching job where his grandfather was such a legend, that’s a lot to ask. 

My Recommendation: Jeff Hafley, he seems ready for the move and as long as he finds an OC, he should be good.

My Prediction: Jeff Hafley- It feels like he’s going to get a job this cycle and this is the best chance he has at one.  The connection to Sullivan wins out. 

Tennessee Titans

Out: Brian Callahan

Top Candidates: Kevin Stefanski, Arthur Smith, Klint Kubiak, Matt Nagy, Mike McCarthy, Mike McDaniel

The Titans are in a unique position because it feels like they want an offensive mind to coach Cam Ward.  The defensive coordinator group is better stocked with young talent than the offensive side so it’s a different search.  Stefanski and McDaniel are the best offensive minds available this cycle and the Titans may luck out that the better jobs will be filled by defensive candidates.  Stefanski would be an excellent fit and he would love the idea of having his QB and it not being Deshaun Watson.  McDaniel could also do wonders with Ward. 

Arthur Smith was the Steelers OC but the best work in his career was as the OC of the Titans when Mike Vrabel was the coach, the ownership group hasn’t forgotten him.  Matt Nagy has a connection to GM Mike Borgonzi who used to be in Kansas City.  I can’t see a team with a young QB going with Nagy after his time in Chicago. Also, the Titans are going to be opening a new stadium and Matt Nagy is not the name they need selling tickets.  Klint Kubiak is an excellent young offensive mind but I’m not sure he’s up for this job.

My Recommendation: Kevin Stefanski, they would be lucky to get such a good coach after firing Mike Vrabel and whiffing on Brian Callahan. 

My Prediction: Kevin Stefanski- he’s such a good coach and here he gets to build out his offense around a QB he might actually like.  The Titans get lucky that the Giants got Harbaugh and Ravens going with a guy they know well.  This is a good match. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Out: Pete Carroll

Top Candidates: Brian Flores, Vance Joseph, Jesse Minter, Ejiro Evero, Davis Webb, Klint Kubiak

The Raiders are hiring a coach again, it’s a yearly ritual in Sin City.  There was an early rumor that Tom Brady wants Brian Flores and to bring in Brian Daboll as his offensive coordinator, that would be way too good for this franchise.  They haven’t had competent coaching like that since Jon Gruden…the first time.  They are looking at the usual suspects at this point.  Vance Joseph, Jesse Minter, and Ejiro Evero are defensive coordinators who deserve a shot, or a second shot in Joseph’s case.  Kubiak is the offensive mind a lot of teams are kicking the tires on.  The one outside the box idea is Davis Webb.  Webb was a backup/third-string QB in the league not long ago and he’s only 30.  Currently, he’s Sean Payton’s QB coach in Denver but he’s a guy on the fast track.  The potential pairing of Vance Joseph as head coach and Webb as the OC would make some sense too.  They are both currently on the Broncos staff. 

My Recommendation: Move heaven and earth to convince Brian Flores to take the head job and for Brian Daboll to be his offensive coordinator.

My Prediction: They will screw this up.  That’s my prediction, they will screw this up.  Unless Brady can pull off the Flores/Daboll thing, this could go badly.  I’ll pick Flores for now but more likely they hire Webb without getting him some help to fix the o-line or they hire Evero and he can’t get a decent OC which will screw him over. 

Cleveland Browns

Out: Kevin Stefanski

Top Candidates: Mike McDaniel, Grant Udinski, Tommy Rees, Jim Schwartz, Nate Scheelhaase, Dan Pitcher

The Browns are clearly looking for a young offensive coordinator type who doesn’t understand how bad this job is.  Their preferred candidate is Mike McDaniel because at least he’s been a head coach.  Grant Udinski (Jaguars), Tommy Rees (Browns), Nate Scheelhaase (Rams), and Dan Pitcher (Bengals) are all young offensive guys who are some sort of coordinator (Scheelhaase is the passing game coordinator, the others are OC) for play calling head coaches.  Jim Schwartz has been the Browns awesome DC but he was a failed head coach once and hasn’t gotten a second shot.  None of these young coaches should take this job as their first job, they can all wait for a better opportunity.  McDaniel is said to be thinking about taking a good OC job instead of one of the bad head coach jobs (that would be the Browns, Cardinals, and maybe the Raiders he would be avoiding).

My Recommendation: When they strike out on the young OCs they should promote Schwartz and then make Rees the play calling OC.  This team is in transition and I’m not sure any hire is a long-term thing. 

My Prediction: Mike McCarthy- Once the Browns strike out on all of these guys, including McDaniel taking the OC job with the Eagles or Lions or someone like that, they pivot.  McCarthy is looking for a third chance at a head coaching job, he wouldn’t object to Jim Schwartz staying on as defensive coordinator, and at least he’s willing to do the job. 

Arizona Cardinals

Out: Jonathan Gannon

Top Candidates: Vance Joseph, Robert Saleh, Arthur Smith, Thomas Brown, Matt Burke, Klint Kubiak

The Cardinals fired Jonathan Gannon and rightfully so but there were only expected to be maybe five openings at the time, instead there are nine.  The Cardinals are at the bottom of the pecking order with the Browns.  The Kyler Murray situation at QB is murky at best, the offensive line needs an overhaul, and the team has been bad for a while.  Vance Joseph was an excellent defensive coordinator for them at one time, so his name is here.  Robert Saleh would be a guy to bring a complete change from the personality of Jonathan Gannon.  Gannon had a reputation for being an odd duck and not much of a motivator, Saleh is the exact opposite. 

Arthur Smith has ties to the Titans organization and GM Monti Ossenfort was with the Titans for a time.  Thomas Brown is with the Patriots but he’s been with a few organizations and has a lot of fans in the league.  He may not get a head coaching job this cycle but I think he’s a likely OC for one of the better OC openings in the league.  Matt Burke is the DC in Houston and has been an excellent DC who doesn’t get as much credit as he should because his head coach DeMeco Ryans is a defensive guy.  Burke calls that defense and should get more credit.  Kubiak could be the guy here, but he might be better off passing on this job and staying Seattle’s OC if he can’t do better.

My Recommendation: Anthony Weaver or Robert Saleh.  Jonathan Gannon was such a strange personality this team needs to think about getting a more dynamic football guy.  Saleh or Weaver fit that mold.    

My Prediction: Vance Joseph- He deserves another shot, he got shortchanged when he was the head coach in Denver.  It’s not an easy job and it’s not that desirable but Joseph’s knowledge of the franchise should make him more amenable to taking the position. 

Quick Hitters

One of the more interesting things about this hiring cycle is that most of the good young coaches teams are looking at are defensive guys.  Jesse Minter (Chargers DC), Anthony Weaver (Miami DC), Jeff Hafley (Green Bay DC), Anthony Campanile (Jacksonville DC), Chris Shula (Rams DC), Ejiro Evero (Carolina DC), Aden Durde (Seattle DC), and Matt Burke (Houston DC) are roughly in their 40s (Shula is 39, Burke turns 50 in March).  These are guys who are seen as being ready to step into head coaching roles.  It’s been said that there aren’t a lot of good young offensive guys which is why Kevin Stefanski and Mike McDaniel are getting so many interviews, good offensive guys who are still young but are on their second job.  Klint Kubiak is the only young offensive coordinator getting serious consideration and even he has people wondering if he’s ready. 

With that said, there are a ton of really young up-and-coming offensive minds that just aren’t quite ready for the top job yet but should be getting OC jobs for some of these defensive guys.  It’s actually a really good thing for a few of the older DCs like Brian Flores, Robert Saleh, Vance Joseph, and Jim Schwartz because these guys may have failed before because they missed on the offensive coordinators they hired.  Certainly, that was true for Flores in Miami and Saleh had OC and QB problems with the Jets. 

Davis Webb (Denver QB coach), Grant Udinski (Jacksonville OC), Nate Scheelhaase (Rams passing game coordinator), Mike LaFluer (Rams OC), Klay Kubiak (San Francisco OC), Thomas Brown (New England passing game coordinator), Tommy Rees (Cleveland OC), Klayton Adams (Dallas OC) and Dan Pitcher (Cincinnati OC) might be guys to look at if your team needs a new OC and there are a few established teams looking to make changes there.  Philadelphia, Detroit, LA Chargers and Kansas City are all looking for new OCs for their well-established head coaches.  The young guys may stay with the coaches they are already working with but they should be looking to move for a play calling job if they don’t have one right now. 

The 4 Big OC Jobs

Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid has allowed both Eric Bienemy and Matt Nagy to call plays for him so this is an attractive job.  I don’t think he’ll put one of these young guys in charge of rebooting the Mahomes offense though.  I think he hires Kliff Kingsbury.  Mahomes knows Kingsbury well and while it won’t be the Air Raid from their college days, it will be a better passing game than Nagy had going last year.

Philadelphia Eagles – This could be the Brian Daboll spot when Las Vegas screws up the Flores/Daboll pairing.  Nick Sirianni needs another new offensive coordinator and it’s an even numbered year so it should be a good one this time.  Kevin Patullo (2025), Kellen Moore (2024), Brian Johnson (2023), Shane Steichen (2022), it’s a pattern.  Daboll is a good offensive mind and he’s better off as a play caller in the booth and not coaching on the sidelines, he’s too emotional on the sidelines.  This is a GM Howie Roseman thing, Sirianni isn’t hiring this OC.  He’s going to shoot for the moon with Daboll and McDaniel first but he may have to settle for Mike Kafka.    

Detroit Lions – In their dreams they get Mike McDaniel if he doesn’t get one of the better head coaching jobs.  If it’s between the Browns head coaching job and Detroit’s OC job, take the Detroit job Mike.  I think he gets the Atlanta job so they have to move on.  This is where one of the young guys could go shine.  One of McVay’s guys, Mike LaFluer or Nate Scheelhaase, would be excellent.  Maybe they go the Shanahan tree and grab Klay Kubiak, he’s the younger brother of Klink Kubiak and is San Fransico’s OC.  The dark horse for me here is Thomas Brown, the Patriots passing game coordinator.  No ties that I know of, but he is well respected in the league and he did a great job for the three games he was promoted to OC in Chicago last year before he then got promoted again to head coach.  I don’t want to see the Patriots lose him because if Josh McDaniels does ever get another head coaching shot, I would like Brown to take over as OC, but that’s a pipe dream, he’s getting an OC job before McDaniels could possibly leave.

Los Angeles Chargers – This one is a mystery to me because Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have an extensive network in the league at this point.  He took most of his staff from guys his brother John had in Baltimore but he just fired Greg Roman so there aren’t any others to pick from.  Mike Kafka (Giants OC/interim HC), Matt Nagy (Kansas City OC), or another retread OC feels like a Harbaugh pick. He should really look to the Rams or 49ers staffs.  One name that has a tie to the Chargers organization but not Harbaugh is Miami Dolphins OC Frank Smith.  With Mike McDaniel gone I would assume they are moving on from him but I believe he’s still under contract with Miami until they hire a new coach.  Smith is well known for his offensive line and run game prowess so that would fit quite nicely with what the Chargers need.   

College Football Coaching Carousel

The college football coaching carousel is already insane and it’s only going to get worse. There are more firings to come and there will be big time coaches moving around opening more jobs as one goes from one job to another.  I’m going to take a shot at predicting who ends up at each spot, I’m aware it’s a fool’s errand but here I am.  A few notes to keep in mind, Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule have signed extensions with Indiana and Nebraska so they are not leaving their current roles.  I’m not including Joe Brady, the Bills offensive coordinator because I don’t think the top jobs would wait until after Buffalo’s season and he’s going to be an NFL coaching candidate. 

I’m going to start at the bigger jobs to look at how the dominos fall as one coach moving opens other jobs.  There are eight jobs in the Power 4 conferences (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) currently open; LSU, Florida, Penn St., Arkansas, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, UCLA, and Stanford.  I think Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida St. are all going to also be open eventually.  In this exercise I don’t think Wisconsin or Michigan St. will fire their coaches and I’ll get to them later.  The one other Big Ten job that could come open is Maryland depending on how their season ends, and it could realistically go either way.  The breakdown for me is LSU, Florida, Penn St., Auburn, and Florida St. would be the top five. Kentucky, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St., UCLA, and Stanford would be the next six. Then I’ll get to the positions that come open from coaching taking some of those jobs.  Hope you like dominos.  There’s a solid group of head coaches from the Group of 6 teams (G6) and there are a few top level coordinators in the Power 4 who will get jobs this cycle.  Let’s get started.

LSU

The is the top job on the market, sorry to Penn St. and Florida but LSU has the advantage.  Three of the last four coaches at LSU; Nick Saban, Les Miles, and Ed Orgeron, all won National Championships.  Obviously, Brian Kelly is the one who didn’t but the fact that Orgeron and Miles did should be proof that LSU has advantages.  Saban is a legend, it’s not strange he won a title there, Miles and Orgeron are not great coaches, I’m not even sure they were good coaches, but they managed to win National Championships at LSU.  Florida has won National Championships but it took legendary coaches like Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer to win there, mere mortals have watched their careers wither in Gainesville.   

LSU has unbelievable instate talent with minimal instate competition for that talent.  At Florida you’re competing with Florida St. and Miami, plus other schools like UCF, USF, FAU, and others are poaching the depth in the state from you.  Penn St. does have some instate competition from Pitt but they also have Ohio St., Michigan, and others trying to pick off talent from Pennsylvania which is not as talent rich as Louisiana.  

Financially, LSU, Penn St., and Florida are not going to be that much different so it comes down to the situation.  The one issue that could hold back LSU is the governor of Louisiana getting involved.  I don’t think he was wrong to want to limit AD Scott Woodward after he’s given out two of the biggest buyout contracts in college football history (Kelly at LSU, and Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M).  However, Woodward does have a solid track record overall hiring coaches. He poached Kim Mulkey for LSU’s women’s basketball program and hired Jay Johnson as the baseball coach.  They just announced Woodward is out as AD and that’s not going to be helpful.  Firing him was unnecessary, I think I would have just kept him out of the contract negotiations. By the way, he wasn’t the only person who would have had to sign off on the contract for Brian Kelly. 

The Pick: Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss)

I’m going with them winning the Lane Kiffin sweepstakes over Florida.  They will outbid Florida but also offer the highest upside for Kiffin.  There’s a feeling Kiffin wants to get back to Florida after his stint as FAU’s head coach and he does have a certain Florida vibe, maybe it’s the visor.  However, Kiffin has always looked for the next step and I think he will see the path to a National Championship is easier at LSU than Florida and that’s his choice.  This would lead to an opening at Ole Miss; I’ll address that later. 

Runner up: Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri).  If Kiffin takes Florida, LSU pivots quickly. 

Disaster candidate: Jimbo Fisher (currently collecting buyout money from Texas A&M).  If they strike out on Kiffin, Drinkwitz, and a couple of other names, would Woodward have called up his old buddy from Texas A&M?  Fisher was the offensive coordinator at LSU in 2003 when Saban led them to a National Championship.  Somehow, I don’t think the LSU fanbase would be happy with him being the pick.  With Woodward out this is much less likely but he does still have old ties to LSU.

Sneaky Good Idea: Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator). Something tells me he’s going to be a good head coach.

Florida

Penn St. and Florida are the next best jobs and I’m addressing the Florida job next because it’s linked to LSU and I don’t think there’s ton of overlap with Penn St.  Florida’s number one choice is Kiffin, if they lose him to LSU, it’s a more wide-open field.  Drinkwitz is a possibility but he’s not a slam dunk and I think they could lose Drinkwitz to another team while they pursue Kiffin.  Drinkwitz might prefer being a different SEC school’s number one choice instead of feeling like he’s taking Kiffin’s leftovers.  I’ll get to Drinkwitz below.  USF Alex Golesh is a name to watch here but I’m not sure he’s a big enough name for the Gators.  They just did the “hire the hot group of five” (or six now) coach with Billy Napier and it didn’t work.  They will aim higher and if they miss on Kiffin and Drinkwitz, there is one major conference coach who will crawl over broken glass for the Florida job and not care if he’s the third choice or the 15th choice. 

The Pick: Jedd Fisch (Washington)

Fisch bounced around in his coaching career as an assistant for many years before finally landing the Arizona job, then he quickly jumped to Washington two years ago.  He rebuilt Arizona quickly; he then took over a decimated roster after Kalen DeBoer left Washington for Alabama and he has them looking pretty good in year two.  He went to school at Florida and started his career as a GA there and he would be ecstatic to make Florida his destination job.  I’m not sure Fisch has ever stayed anywhere more than three years but he would certainly hope to change that with a move to Gainesville.  He’s not the sexiest hire but he might be the right one for Florida.  This would open the Washington job and there’s an excellent candidate out there for that one. 

Runner up: Well, Fisch is really third on my list for them but is it’s not him they could go with Golesh or maybe they make a run at Rhett Lashlee at SMU.  I do think the Florida fans may want to temper their expectations.

Disaster Candidate: James Franklin.  Sorry but Franklin is a great recruiter who isn’t a great coach. There is too much pressure at Florida and Franklin would crumble under it. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Clark Lea (Vanderbilt). He should be high on everyone’s list but I’m not sure Florida would hire Vanderbilt’s coach.   

Penn St.

Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule already used this job to get extensions and raises at their current schools and other coaches may do the same.  The pressure to win at Penn St. is enormous and the fact they fired James Franklin after he basically won ten games every year is crazy.  However, they weren’t wrong to fire Franklin if they want to truly compete for National Championships, he had taken them as far as he could.  What Penn St. needs is a real coach, not just a guy who can recruit and then tries to hire coaches to coach.  They need the guy who can raise the level of play of the great players they can get.  Great players have gone to Penn St. and played well but they are usually guys who were 4- or 5-star recruits and they don’t actually get better they’re just good players to start with.  Even if you are a top recruit, it doesn’t mean coaching can’t make you better.  Guys like Nick Saban and Kirby Smart routinely get 5-star guys but they also develop them into the best player they can be, that was not Franklin. The guy they need isn’t the flashy name but he’s the right coach. 

The Pick: Matt Campbell (Iowa State)

I hate giving Iowa St. credit in any way but Matt Campbell is an excellent football coach.  He routinely takes two-star and three-star recruits and makes them way better players.  What he could do with the upper-level recruits Penn St. can get would be scary.  He’s always had good coordinators but Campbell is a legitimately good football coach himself.  He’s rebuffed many opportunities in the past but Penn St. is one of the premiere coaching jobs in the country, it’s in an elite conference, and there is no chance Iowa St. can compete financially with the Nittany Lions.  It’s time for Campbell to make the move and competing in the Big Ten is where he belongs.  It would be ripping out the hearts of Iowa St. fans again if Penn St. takes a great coach from them.  To all those Penn St. fans thinking he’s not a big enough name, just look at your wrestling program and remember where Cael Sanderson came from, you’re in good hands. 

Runner up: Jon Sumrall (Tulane) Sumrall is arguably the best G6 coach on the carousel this season, he’s been excellent at both Troy and Tulane.  He’s headed to the SEC in my opinion but Penn St. would be lucky to have him.  I would be more than happy to see him stick around Tulane until Kirk Ferentz retires, he would be at the top of my board. 

Disaster candidate: Brian Kelly (former LSU). There’s a thought that Kelly’s “failure” at LSU (he did win a lot just not enough for them) was because he wasn’t a culture fit.  His terrible Louisiana accent notwithstanding, Kelly’s personality was his downfall. Some would call him gruff, that’s the polite way to put it, he’s a jerk, always has been.  I don’t think his personality would endear him to the Penn St. faithful.  He needs a lower profile place where they can hide his personality.

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison).  He’s a great coach from the region who took over James Madison after Curt Cignetti and has kept them winning.  He won at Holy Cross before that.  He’s not a big enough name but he might just be a really good coach and someone is going to hire him.  They may be missing out.

Auburn

Auburn has high hopes for their football program and they keep grasping at straws trying to find the solution at head coach, it has not gone well.  Hugh Freeze is in over his head and they need another new coach.  They went way outside the box when they hired Bryan Harsin from Boise St. a few years ago, that was a disaster. Then they overcorrected with thinking Freeze was the right fit.  They should try to hit one straight down the fairway, a good coach who can fit anywhere. 

The Pick: Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)

Remember I said Drinkwitz might prefer to go somewhere that’s he’s the first choice and not the consolation prize.  I think Auburn should put on the full-court press and get him before Florida takes their eye off Kiffin and before Penn St. gets any farther down their list.  Drinkwitz won at Appalachian St and he’s winning at Missouri.  He’s been a great evaluator of talent both with players and coaches and Auburn needs someone to get everything there aligned.  Auburn has a strange history with coaches and I might actually tell Drinkwitz to look elsewhere but Auburn can be a giant and they are going to make it worth his while.  Missouri can compete with the salary but they don’t have the same advantages Auburn has in the SEC since Missouri is an SEC school that’s not actually in SEC country. 

Runner Up: Jon Sumrall (Tulane).  I’m not sure this is really a runner up because I think Sumrall would prefer a different SEC destination, but Auburn can think he would choose them. 

Disaster candidate: Ed Orgeron (unemployed interim coach specialist).  If Drinkwitz goes to Florida, and Sumrall goes to (SPOILER ALERT) Kentucky, maybe baggage at Auburn hurts them with some of the up-and-comers and they end up with Orgeron (this is never happening, Auburn donors are far too involved to let this occur).

Sneaky Good Idea: Glenn Schumann (Georgia defensive coordinator).  Not sure how sneaky it is, his name has come up for openings but he’s a coordinator so I’m not sure they would even consider it.  The last Georgia defensive coordinator to take a head job was Dan Lanning so there’s that.  Auburn could do worse, actually, they usually do.    

Florida St.

The Seminoles are basically letting Mike Norvell finish out the season but he’s a dead man walking right now and it’s understandable.  The last two seasons have been a disaster.  They are going to have to pay a major buyout for Norvell so they won’t likely be shopping for a coach in the same tax bracket as these other schools.  Florida St. doesn’t have the deep pockets of a Big Ten or SEC school but they are a major brand and they hope to be in one of those conferences one day.  They need a good coach that isn’t extra expensive and can turn this program back around. 

The Pick: Clark Lea (Vanderbilt)

This is a tough one because Lea has built Vanderbilt into a real football program and he’s an alumnus.  It’s going to take a special job to get him to move but Florida St. is a very prominent program.  Vanderbilt is in the SEC and Florida St. is not but Vanderbilt isn’t in the business of investing in football the way Florida St. is long-term.  It would suck for him to leave but this is the time to go.  Lea wasn’t exactly lighting it up at Vanderbilt until Diego Pavia transferred in and now Pavia will be done.  It’s the right time to go and he can say he’s leaving Vanderbilt in a better place than where he found it. 

Runner up: Alex Golesh (South Florida).  A very good alternative if they can’t get Lea.

Disaster candidate: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).  This is not a slight on Silverfield, he’s proven to be a good head coach.  He’s a disaster as a Florida St. candidate only because Mike Norvell was hired from Memphis and Silverfield replaced him there.  No way Florida St. can sell the idea of hiring the next guy from Memphis.  It’s a dumb reason but it does matter to them.  

Sneaky Good Idea: Jeff Brohm (Louisville).  I’ve heard Brohm’s name come up and getting him to leave his alma mater Louisville will be even harder than getting Lea to do so.  However, Brohm is an excellent coach and if Florida St. pulled this off, hats off, that would be incredible. 

Virginia Tech

Virgina Tech needs a reset after striking out with Brent Pry.  They may make a play for Shane Beamer at South Carolina but following in the legendary footsteps of his father seems like a bad idea.  Beamer may want to find a soft-landing spot after his tough year at South Carolina but he would be better off not going back to Va Tech. 

The Pick: James Franklin (former Penn St.)

This one feels like it has been in motion since the minute he was fired.  Franklin is still a young coach and has the energy it will take to fix Virginia Tech and he’s got something to prove.  It would be a solid hire for the school, don’t overthink it. 

Runner up: Billy Napier (former Florida).  I haven’t heard his name for any openings but he’s a good coach and they could do worse. 

Disaster candidate: Brian Kelly (former LSU). He qualifies as a disaster at anywhere that has actual expectations and where he has to talk to people.

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison). Again, a job in this region would be a good fit and he’s a good coach.

Kentucky

This job isn’t open yet but it looks like Mark Stoops could be gone any day now.  It’s a massive buyout but this program is slipping and they can’t afford to let it slip any farther.  Also, they have the opportunity to bring home a homegrown future coaching star and if they don’t act now, he’s getting a different job. 

The Pick: Jon Sumrall (Tulane). 

Sumrall is at the top of any list of coaches coming from the G6 teams.  He was a LB at Kentucky and was an assistant there before he became the head coach at Troy.  He parlayed Troy into Tulane and he’s been excellent there.  If the Wildcats don’t hire him now, someone else in the SEC or Big Ten will and then it will be very hard to get him.  He might be Auburn’s top choice, if Kiffin leaves Ole Miss, Sumrall’s on that list too.

Runner up: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis) or Alex Golesh (South Florida).  I’m not sure Kentucky will be able to spend on a sitting head coach from a Power 4 school so if Sumrall turns them down, they look to the other top G6 guys. 

Disaster candidate: Anyone not name Jon Sumrall.  If they pay Mark Stoops’ ridiculous buyout, they better be sure Sumrall is taking the job.  The owe Stoops something like $38 million and it’s all due within 30 days of his firing, that’s insane.  Kudos to Stoops’ agent.  Sumrall would be a homerun hire for them, anyone else is a disappointment. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Don’t put a one lump sum payment buyout on a coach’s contract like this ever again. Especially for a guy who showed you his ceiling was winning nine games every few years.  Stoops deserves credit for rebuilding Kentucky football but he was well compensated the entire time and now his reward for tanking the program is winning the lottery.  That’s bad business.

Arkansas

It was time to move on from Sam Pittman and Bobby Petrino is not the answer.  Don’t be stupid and go looking for someone outside your comfort zone like you did when you hired Bret Bielema.  Stick to someone you know. 

The Pick: Rhett Lashlee (SMU)

Lashlee is an Arkansas native who built a good SMU team and took them to the college football playoff last year.  He’s an excellent coach and there’s no better fit.  I say it all the time, don’t over think it.  SMU has deep pockets to compete with any offer but let’s not pretend Arkansas can’t beat it. 

Runner up: Eric Morris (North Texas). He’s a Texas guy who could recruit to Arkansas pretty well and he’s a QB savant. 

Disaster hire: Billy Napier (former Florida).  I don’t think Arkansas fans would take too well to Florida’s reject. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Collin Klein (Texas A&M offensive coordinator).  Klein is a young coach who has been an offensive coordinator at Kansas St. and Texas A&M and they would be getting a guy on his way up.  It might be a big jump but he might be worth the risk. 

Oklahoma St.

Mike Gundy was there for a very long time as both a coach and a player.  He defined Oklahoma St. football for a generation, now they need to move on.  A new, young offensive minded coach would look good in Stillwater. 

The Pick: Eric Morris (North Texas)

Morris is only 40 and he hasn’t been coaching that long in college but he’s been a head coach at Incarnate Word and at North Texas, he was also an offensive coordinator at Washington St. when they were still in a major conference.  Oklahoma St. isn’t the most attractive job out there but it has its advantages.  If you get a guy like Morris who can recruit in Texas and find you a QB, that’s a great place to start.

Runner up: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC).  Same reasons as the Arkansas job although it’s not as big of a leap. 

Disaster candidate: Ben Arbuckle (Oklahoma OC). Arbuckle is 29 and not ready.  He’s had success with John Mateer at Washington St. and some at Oklahoma but he shouldn’t be getting this big of a job. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Just hire Morris, this isn’t hard.   

UCLA

The Bruins are flailing along and trying to find a direction.  Tim Skipper is the interim after they fired Deshuan Foster but they need to look for someone with some real head coaching experience to lead the program.  That’s not going to be easy with an athletic department that isn’t likely to commit a ton of resources.  They could go with a current coordinator but I think they should look for the guy looking for a soft landing somewhere new. 

The Pick: Dave Aranda (Baylor)

Aranda has had Baylor up and down over the years and generally just as soon as it looks like they may fire him, he has a solid year.  Maybe it’s time to get off that particular rollercoaster.  Aranda was born and raised in California and UCLA may just be desperate enough to want a guy needing a lifeline.  Aranda cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator so there’s even the possibility he might be willing to keep Jerry Neuheisel as his offensive coordinator.  Aranda is a good coach needing a reset and UCLA needs a coach who’s willing to accept a job that may not be perfect. 

Runner up: D’Anton Lynn (USC defensive coordinator).  Lynn was formerly the defensive coordinator at UCLA and may have been the guy who replaced Chip Kelly if he hadn’t just left for the USC DC job.  He would also potentially keep Neuheisel so he’s not the worst choice. 

Disaster hire: PJ Fleck (Minnesota).  His name routinely gets floated for this job but I don’t think the UCLA administration would find it fun to have Fleck around complaining about not getting enough support from the school.  He’s not exactly the type of guy to suffer in silence. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Tosh Lupoi (Oregon defensive coordinator).  Great recruiter and a guy looking for a chance to be a head coach.  He too could keep Neuheisel.  It’s not a dealbreaker that a new coach has to keep him but Neuheisel seems to be beloved in that locker room and loves UCLA.  He’s done a good job taking over and making the offense fun again since the purge of Deshaun Foster and other coaches.  Don’t kill the vibe. 

Stanford

Frank Reich is the interim coach that Andrew Luck hired to hold down the fort after they let Troy Taylor go over the summer for non-football related reasons.  I don’t have a good feel for this job because the only name mentioned I’ve seen is Tavita Pritchard who is the Ravens QB coach.  He’s a former Stanford QB and coached there too.  He’s really young and doesn’t have a ton of experience.  Luck is in charge of hiring the next coach and he would be wise to look at UCLA’s hiring of Deshaun Foster and steer clear of hiring a guy just because of his ties to the school.  There are a couple of good coaches not linked to Stanford that Luck should look into. 

The Pick: Sean Lewis (San Diego St.)

Lewis is an offensive mastermind and was an excellent coach at Kent St. and if you know anything about Kent St. football you know how impressive that was.  He made the mistake of leaving there to be Deion Sanders’ OC at Colorado.  That didn’t go well but he was smart enough to get out before it hurt his stock.  He got the San Diego St. job and has done well.  He runs a unique offense and Stanford probably needs to do something a little different to compete.  It a tough situation with their academic standards and the weird placement in the ACC but Stanford can be a good team. 

Runner up: Ken Niumatalolo (San Jose St.). Niumatalolo was once the head coach at Navy and ran the triple option there but now at San Jose St. he runs a wide-open spread offense.  Talk about a guy who could give Stanford something unique.  He’s an excellent coach but he is 60 years old and may not want the headache of a rebuild at a tough place like Stanford.

Disaster hire: Tavita Pritchard (Baltimore Ravens QB coach).  I’m not knocking Pritchard as a coach, by all accounts he’s doing a good job.  However, he’s 36, never been a head coach, and this is a heavy lift.  The Deshaun Foster/UCLA thing would scare me away from this.  Maybe if you hire Lewis, he succeeds and moves on in a few years and then Pritchard comes back after being at least a coordinator in the NFL or college.  Give it a little time.

Sneaky Good Idea: Jonathan Smith (Michigan St.) Smith was a rising star at Oregon St. and now in his second year at Michigan St. he might get fired.  He’s a west coast guy and maybe getting back that way would be good for him.  I don’t think it’s a good idea for Michigan St. to give up on him this early but he may be like Dave Aranda and looking for a soft-landing spot. 

Maryland

This is another job that isn’t open and depending on how they finish, it may not.  Mike Locksley has been a big-time recruiter in his career as an assistant but as a head coach, he’s been hit and miss.  His coaching hasn’t been great at Maryland.  There are a lot of great players in the area and he hasn’t taken advantage.  He has a very good freshman QB this year but they may only go 5-7, 6-6, or 7-5 at best.  He’s had plenty of time and Maryland has a chance to get a good up-and-coming coach. 

The pick: Charles Huff (Southern Miss)

Huff is a Maryland native and he’s coached at places like Alabama, Penn St. and even the NFL.  He was the head coach at Marshall and took over at Southern Miss this season.  He’s won at both places and he would be a great get for Maryland.

Runner up: I don’t think there’s a great second choice.  Huff should be the guy if they move on.

Disaster hire: Brian Kelly (former LSU).  I’m just taking another shot at Kelly. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison). Seriously, do I have to say it again? He’s a good coach.

The Domino Jobs (their coach left for a better opportunity)

Ole Miss

Lost: Lane Kiffin

Hire: Pete Golding (Ole Miss defensive coordinator). 

Golding has been a good coach at Ole Miss and was a good DC at Alabama before that.  He would likely have to wrestle with Kiffin to keep some of the staff but he’s their best shot at keeping the Kiffin thing going. 

Other options: Alex Golesh (South Florida), Jon Sumrall (Tulane)

Missouri

Lost: Eli Drinkwitz

Hire: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).

Silverfield might be the runner up for a number of jobs because he’s good but maybe not ready for the upper level of the Big Ten or SEC.  Missouri is a good next step for him.  Better program, better conference, and working towards the bigger jobs.

Other options: Alex Golesh (South Florida), Colin Klein (Texas A&M OC)

Iowa St.

Lost: Matt Campbell

Hire: Jason Eck (New Mexico).

He has done a great job everywhere he’s been and he does have ties to AD Jamie Pollard.  Eck was an offensive lineman and started his coaching career at Wisconsin when Pollard was there.

Other options: Nathan Scheelhaase (LA Rams Assistant Coach), Tim Polasek (North Dakota St.)

SMU

Lost: Rhett Lashlee

Hire: Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator). 

Stein spent a lot of time coaching in the state of Texas and he would be a great candidate to step in and keep the offense humming at SMU.  He’s a future coaching star. 

Other options: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC), Jason Eck (New Mexico)

Washington

Lost: Jedd Fisch

Hire: Ryan Grubb (Alabama OC). 

Grubb was Kalen DeBoer’s right hand man during Washington’s run to the National Championship Game a couple of years ago.  He’s a great offensive mind for college (his year with the Seahawks went poorly, not all his fault).  And he clearly liked the area so maybe he will stay longer than DeBoer or Fisch did.

Other options: Will Stein (Oregon OC), Tosh Lupoi (Oregon DC)

Tulane

Lost: Jon Sumrall

Hire: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC)

Klein is a young coach at 36 and while there’s a very good chance, he may end up the head coach at Kansas St. someday, Chris Klieman is only 58 and Klein should get some experience as a head coach.  If Sumrall moves up to a bigger job, that’s the last two Tulane head coaches who moved up (Willie Fritz became the Houston head coach).  This is a good job to have.

Other options: Charles Huff (Southern Miss), Billy Napier (former Florida)

Memphis

Lost: Ryan Silverfield

Hire: Tim Cramsey (Memphis OC)

The last time Memphis lost their head coach they replaced Mike Norvell with Silverfield.  Here they do it again by promoting Cramsey who is their offensive coordinator.  It’s not the sexiest hire but he’s a solid coach. 

Other options: Brian Brohm (Memphis OC), Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), Brian Hartline (Ohio St. OC) 

Vanderbilt

Lost: Clark Lea

Hire: Bob Chesney (James Madison)

I mentioned Chesney for a couple of jobs but I haven’t given him one yet.  He would be an excellent choice for Vanderbilt.  He isn’t working with the biggest budget at JMU and Vanderbilt would be similar.  Chesney can do less with more.  He should be getting one of these jobs.

Other options: Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), Mike Denbrock (Notre Dame OC)

Baylor

Lost: Dave Aranda

Hire: Alex Golesh (South Florida)

Golesh should also be getting a promotion and heading to Baylor and bringing his offensive acumen to a place like Baylor seems fitting. 

Other options: Eric Morris (North Texas), Will Stein (Oregon OC)

The 3 Other Jobs (Someone will take them)

Oregon St

They fired Trent Bray after less than a season and a half after promoting him when Jonathan Smith left for Michigan St.  He was a young defensive coordinator and they didn’t give him much time.  Oregon St. is still in the PAC-2 until they get the PAC-whatever back up and running.  It’s not a great job but someone will take it. 

The Pick: Paul Chryst

Chryst wasn’t lighting up the world at Wisconsin but he didn’t deserve to get fired either and they are paying for that mistake now.  He wants to get back into coaching but he isn’t going to be a hot commodity.  He would be an excellent pick to resurrect Oregon St. and get them on track as the new conference gets going. 

UAB

They fired Trent Dilfer and for good reason.  He was a disaster and anyone is an upgrade.  This program deserves a good coach.

The Pick: Billy Napier (former Florida). 

Napier is a good coach.  He was in over his head at Florida but he was an excellent coach at Louisiana.  UAB would be a good landing spot for him. 

Colorado St.

Jay Norvell did okay at CSU but never quite as well as he did at Nevada.  CSU is at best a stepping stone for a good young coach and at worst it’s a last stop for a guy on his way out.  Maybe this is the Brian Kelly stop.  I highly doubt he would swallow his pride enough to take this job but it would be a good place for him, no one is paying attention to Colorado St. 

The Pick: I don’t have a good choice for this one.  I say go for the up-and-coming coach like a Brian Brohm (Louisville OC), Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), or Tim Polasek (North Dakota St) but I’m not sure they would take it.  It’s possible this is a Mike Gundy spot.   

The two Big Ten jobs that could open but won’t.

Wisconsin

Luke Fickell needs a miracle because even if he survives this year, Wisconsin’s outlook next year can’t be great.  He’s a dead man walking but Wisconsin’s AD doesn’t want to admit his mistake and they really don’t want to pay his buyout.  They are talking about investing more money in the roster and while that would help, Fickell’s inability to keep a QB healthy has killed his team every year.  Wisconsin hasn’t had the offensive line they are used to or the defense they used to have so it’s an uphill climb.  It is possible things change and the Wisconsin AD gets the boot too and both are gone.  If they need a coach, Jason Eck (New Mexico) is a former Badger and if the AD is gone, they could try to mend fences with Jim Leonhard (Denver Broncos assistant).  Neither would necessarily break the bank so they could get it done. 

Michigan St. 

I thought the Jonathan Smith hire was a good one at the time and I would give him more time to right the ship.  With the portal, it’s possible to turn a roster around quickly if you make the right moves.  Maybe Smith is a bad fit but I think Michigan St. should sit out this coaching cycle, give Smith the resources to figure it out, and if he fails next season, maybe the coaching carousel isn’t so tough. They have turned that job into a revolving door since Mark Dantonio retired and it’s not a good idea to continually turn over the job.  They didn’t have a choice with Mel Tucker; he had to go. They have a choice with Smith and they should hold on to him. 

Well, if you made it this far, kudos to you and thanks for sticking around.  I probably got it all wrong and if Lane Kiffin picks Florida or stays at Ole Miss, the dominos may fall in a completely different way.  That’s the fun of dominos.      

2025 NFL Season Predictions

Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award

Top Contenders: QB Josh Allen, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Joe Burrow, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Derrick Henry, QB Jayden Daniels

Sleepers: QB CJ Stroud, QB Drake Maye, QB Caleb Willams, QB Bo Nix

We all know this is a basically an award for the best QB so that’s who’s on the list, and the two best RBs in football. Allen won it last year and rightfully so, he was awesome. Lamar has won twice and the Ravens will be good again so he’s in the running. Mahomes is the running as long as he’s still standing. Burrow made a late run last season when he was absolutely on fire and if he had led the Bengals to one more win, he might have had it. Allen was far enough ahead to hold him off but it was closer than you think. Barkley and Henry deserve a mention because they’re awesome players and if they have repeat seasons to last year, they are in the conversation. Daniels’ candidacy will hinge on whether or not the Commanders did enough to help him, I’m not sure Deebo is enough to get him over the hump. They did improve his protection so that will help. The sleepers are three rookie QBs who played the most last year besides Daniels. Any of them could level up and breakthrough. Each would need to get their team to the playoff to be in the conversation. Stroud had the sophomore slump Daniels is looking to avoid, if he bounces back, he’s worth noting.

My Pick: Josh Allen
It feels like it’s his time right now. The Bills haven’t conquered the Chiefs mountain yet but it’s not because of Allen. He doesn’t have the best supporting cast in football but he levels his guys up. If he turns Keon Coleman into a legit WR1, Khalil Shakir becomes a great number two, and then maybe he finally gets guys like TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Josh Palmer to level up, it’s his back-to-back MVP season.

Offensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: RB Saquon Barkley, RB Derrick Henry, RB Jamyr Gibbs, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR CeeDee Lamb, RB Bijan Robinson

Sleepers: TE Brock Bowers, WR Puka Nacua, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB De’Von Achane

Barkley won this award last season and he certainly earned it. He had over 2000 yards rushing and was a nearly unstoppable force for the Super Bowl Champions. It was impressive and his win was even more impressive when you consider how great Derrick Henry was as a RB, Bijan Robinson was overall, and that Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving triple crown. Chase is only the fifth receiver to ever lead the league in receptions, yards, and receiving TDs and he still didn’t touch Barkley. Gibbs had a great year for Detroit too, he had to shoulder more of the load when David Montgomery was banged up and he showed he’s up to the task. Jefferson and Lamb are the only two WRs who can reasonably be in the conversation of the best WR in the league with Chase. Those three are simply a level above everyone else. As for my sleepers, Bowers was amazing as a rookie. The numbers he had were insane and that was with some of the worst QB play in the league. Now he has Geno Smith who even on his worst day is a competent NFL starting QB. Puka Nacua has been excellent in LA and with Cooper Kupp gone and Devante Adams his new partner in crime, his stats might go up. Amon-Ra St. Brown should not be underestimated and Achane is a game breaker and the only way the Dolphins are awesome is if he is.

My Pick: WR Ja’Marr Chase
Last season he had over 1700 yards and 17 TDs and that was with a very slow start to Joe Burrow’s year. If Burrow can get going early and the Bengals don’t have their usually September slow start, Chase could get 2000 yards receiving. He’s the best WR in football and has one of the four elite QBs in the game.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top contenders: OLB TJ Watt, DE Myles Garrett, DE Micah Parsons, DE Nick Bosa, CB Patrick Surtain II, CB Derrick Stingley Jr., DE Maxx Crosby, S Kyle Hamilton

Sleepers: DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Jalen Carter, DE Will Anderson Jr., DB Cooper DeJean

Patrick Surtain II took his rightful place at the top of the CB position last season and won the Defensive Player of the Year. He’s been the best in the league for a couple of years but it took a few years for him to get the recognition. TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa are all pass rushers who have won this award in the recent past and are still good enough to do it. They have set the bar pretty high for themselves since they already have won it but it’s possible to repeat. Micah Parsons went from us not knowing what would happen to him with his contract situation and playing on not so great defense, to maybe being the favorite for the award. Derrick Stingley Jr. might be the only guy truly giving Surtain a run for his money as the top CB in the league right now. There are plenty of really good CBs but Surtain and Stingley Jr. are a cut above. DE Maxx Crosby is in the same pass rushing tier as the guys above but the Raiders have to be better for him to get the league-wide recognition. Maybe with Pete Carroll around, they will be. Kyle Hamilton is the chess piece that makes the Ravens defense amazing.

As far as sleepers, Trey Hendrickson is as good of a pass rusher as these other guys but the Bengals defense has been hot garbage and he either needs them to skyrocket up the league standings or he needs to get traded. Christian Gonzalez is a guy I can see taking the next step to level up to the Surtain/Stingley level of cover corner. He would have to be unbelievable to win this award but this is the year he starts building towards eventually winning it. Jalen Carter might be the best DT in football but unless you’re Aaron Donald, this is a tough award for a DT to win. Will Anderson is still a young guy but he’s about to truly breakout on a dominant defense in Houston, he’s eventually going to win this award. I’m throwing DeJean in because he’s going to make plays all over the field for one of the best defenses in football. His DC Vic Fangio is trying to play him wherever he can, just to get him on the field. He won’t win the award this year, but he has one in him.

My Pick: Micah Parsons
Originally, I picked Derek Stingley Jr. for his breakout year and winning this award, then Parsons got traded to Green Bay and it’s over. He’s going to a team with an ascending defense, playing under a really good coordinator, and he’s going to be motivated to prove he’s the best. Parsons has every reason to show everyone how great he is and to rub it in Jerry Jones’ face. Parsons can lead the league in sacks and help Green Bay get over the hump. That’s the kind of difference that wins you this award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: QB Cam Ward, RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Travis Hunter, WR Tetairoa McMillan, RB Omarion Hampton, RB TreVeyon Henderson, RB Kaleb Johnson

Sleepers: WR Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden III, WR Tory Horton

I feel like this is a RBs award to lose. Jeanty has to be the favorite as the top RB prospect and going to a team that is going to use him a ton. However, there are three others who are going to get used a ton. Omarion Hampton will get the Lion’s share of the carries in LA with Najee Harris not being fully healthy. Henderson is already outplaying Rhamondre Stevenson in New England the Patriots need as much playmaking on offense as they can get. Kaleb Johnson is going to get the early down work in Pittsburgh and if the offensive line is just solid, he’s going to break some big runs. Cam Ward is pushing the boulder up hill in Tennessee but he’s a QB and if he plays well, people will notice. Travis Hunter is a big name and can make plays but he’s the second WR to Brian Thomas Jr. and he’s still finding his way. I love McMillan but Bryce Young still has to prove to me he’s a legitimate starting QB who can use a real WR1.

I picked three WRs as sleepers because they should all contribute and have breakout potential. Higgins is the WR2 to Nico Collins but he has CJ Stroud so that helps. Burden is buried deeper on the depth chart in Chicago but something feels right between him and Ben Johnson. I love Horton as a dark horse. Sam Darnold is going to need a deep threat in Seattle decided it’s going to be Horton when they cut Marquez Zaldes-Scantling.

My Pick: RB Omarion Hampton
I’m picking Hampton over Jeanty and Kaleb Johnson even though my gut really wants to go with Johnson. Hampton is going to get the most carries for an offense that’s going to run the ball a ton. He’s a truly talented back and Jim Harbaugh is going to ride him all season long. Jeanty will get a ton of carries too but Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly will use others and I also think the Raiders offense won’t be quite as good. Johnson is going to be a stud in Pittsburgh but they still love Jaylen Warren and Johnson is going to face tougher boxes with Aaron Rodgers not scaring anyone.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Abdul Carter, DE Jalon Walker, DE Shamar Stewart, LB Jihaad Campbell, CB Travis Hunter, CB Will Johnson, DT Mason Graham

Sleepers: S Malaki Starks, OLB Mike Green, DB Jahdae Barron

The DROY usually goes to either the best pass rusher or the top cover corner, so it generally mirrors the defensive player of the year award. Carter is in prime position on a loaded Giants front to be highly productive. Jalon Walker has been exclusively practicing as a pass rusher for the Falcons. Shemar Stewart got a late start with his contract dispute but he has plenty of talent and he’s going to get every opportunity to be a difference maker for the Bengals. Jihaad Campbell is a LB but in Vic Fangio’s defense he’s going to do many different things. Travis Hunter would be high on the list if he was going to play CB more but most of his time is going to be spent on offense. Will Johnson is a dark horse; he was a second-round pick but he’s a first-round talent. Mason Graham probably won’t make enough splash plays as a DT to get noticed enough to win the award. Malaki Starks might make enough plays at safety in the Ravens defense to get noticed. Same goes for Mike Green as a pass rusher for the Ravens. Jahdae Barron will play in Denver but might get overshadowed too much on his own defense to stand out.

My Pick: DE Abdul Carter
I’m going with the most likely pick here. Carter is set up to succeed in New York, he’s in a big market where every one of his big plays will be played up. My next favorite is Will Johnson, the Cardinals stole a good one in round two.

AFC Playoff Teams
Kansas City
Buffalo
Baltimore
Houston
Wild Card Teams
Denver
LA Chargers
New England (yep, I said it)

NFC Playoff Teams
Philadelphia
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
LA Rams
Wild Card Teams
Detroit
Minnesota
San Francisco

AFC Championship Game
Kansas City vs. Buffalo

NFC Championship Game
Detroit vs. Green Bay

Super Bowl Matchup
Green Bay vs. Buffalo

Super Bowl Winner
Buffalo Bills

Playoff Explanation

Yes, I picked the Patriots to make the playoffs as the last team in on the AFC side. The six top teams in the AFC feel pretty solid but the seventh seed doesn’t seem clear to me. KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston as the division winners is pretty easy. I like Denver after the season they had and it’s hard to go against the Chargers after the season Harbaugh had with them in year one. It came down to two teams for me, the Patriots or the Bengals. I don’t like Miami this season, there’s just bad vibes there and I can’t get behind the Aaron Rodgers Steelers. I love the Bengals offense but that defense might be atrocious. If they get off to a slow start like they usually do, they may dig a hole too deep to dig out of. I like the Patriots to be like Washington last year in the NFC. Some good veteran leadership, a good head coach, and an electric QB to carry them on his back. It also helps that the Patriots have one of the easier schedules in the league.

I made one change from my division previews. I had Detroit winning the NFC North over the Packers but that was before the Packers got Micah Parsons. I thought it was going to be a tight race between them and I think Parsons pushes the Packers ahead. Picking the wildcard teams is tougher in the NFC because there are a lot of teams to like. Detroit is still too talented to write off and I think JJ McCarthy can do enough with that roster in Minnesota to get them to the playoffs. The last spot isn’t easy, there are plenty of options. The Seahawks could be good if Klint Kubiak fixes their o-line issues. Atlanta could be plucky if the defense is even decent. San Francisco was a last second pick for me for the last spot because while the injury issues are still present for them, they simply can’t have as bad of luck as they had last season. Brandon Aiyuk should be back at some point and now they have Brian Robinson to take some of the load off Christian McCaffrey. The defense has better players and Robert Saleh back calling it.

In the end, it’s hard to bet against KC and Buffalo in the AFC, Mahomes vs. Allen is the prize fight we all deserve. I feel like it’s time for Buffalo to get over the hump and this feels like Josh Allen’s year. I actually had Green Bay and Detroit in my NFC Championship game before the Parsons trade but I did switch to Green Bay as my NFC Super Bowl pick instead of Detroit. I am worried about Detroit’s interior offensive line but if Aidan Hutchinson stays healthy I think their defense will be really good. Parsons pushes the Packers over the Lions for me. They did not have a difference maker on defense, now they have one of the top five defensive playmakers in the league, added to a defense that as pretty good last season.

Thoughts and Predictions

Last year the rookie class was mostly about the QBs. This year the rookie class is going to be about the rookie RBs. Ashton Jeanty (Raiders), Omarion Hampton (Chargers), Kaleb Johnson (Steelers), TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots), RJ Harvey (Broncos), and Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) will all play huge roles with their teams. While they won’t all start to begin the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are all the starters by the midpoint of the year. Also, Jaydon Blue (Cowboys), Ollie Gordon (Dolphins), Kyle Monangai (Bears) and Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) are four more guys who can work their way into bigger roles as the season goes on. It feels like a bit of a changing of the guard as some guys age and these young guys take over.
Speaking of aging, I’m worried about the Matthew Stafford back issue. Stafford is 37 years old and missed most of training camp with a back issue. The back of any 37-year-old can be iffy and with a guy who can routinely get hit by 300 lbs. defensive linemen it’s especially an issue. Everything for the Rams hinges on Stafford’s health. I picked them to win the NFC West but if Stafford misses games with this back issue, all bets are off. I’m not riding with the Rams if their QB is Jimmy G.

There were three big contract issues heading towards week one and the Commanders got a new deal done with WR Terry McLaurin and the Bengals gave DE Trey Hendrickson more money to satisfy him this season. The third was Micah Parsons and I can’t believe Jerry Jones traded him. It makes no sense to trade him and even less sense to do it now. He’s under contract for the year; he wasn’t going to miss games with his “back” issues. Play out the season, franchise tag him in the off season and trade him next year before the draft. It’s not a surprise Jerry Jones let his ego get the best of him, he once fired Jimmy Johnson because he couldn’t stand people giving Johnson credit for the team winning. The two first round picks and a player trade was always going to be there. You either trade him this last spring when you can get a draft pick to help you this year, or you wait until next off season. Dumbest trade in Dallas since the Mavericks traded Luka Doncic…been a tough year in Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman is a trading machine, he’s pulled off a number of trades in the last couple of weeks. They’re small moves but they improve the roster along the fringes and that’s where games can be won and lost. I’m not sure why more GMs don’t do what Roseman does. Roseman picked up guys like OT Fred Johnson, CB Jakorian Bennett, WR John Metchie III, and backup QB Sam Howell. Some of these guys may not make a difference but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them come in handy at sometime this season.

Speaking of trades, the Patriots seem to be holding onto some veterans they have to be looking to trade. Their initial 53-man roster had eight WRs, along with LB Anfernee Jennings and S Kyle Dugger. Jennings and Dugger don’t seem to fit the new defense but they will fit someone’s defense. I hope they are just holding onto them to get some value and not because they are paying them real money. At WR, Kendrick Bourne was non-existent during the preseason, they ended up cutting him when they couldn’t get a deal done with Minnesota (Vikings preferred Adam Thielen instead), but there are WR needy teams (Steelers, Commanders, 49ers), they should have taken anything for Bourne.

The other team that did well with trades was the 49ers. They picked up RB Brian Robinson Jr. and he’s going to be a great combo with Christian McCaffrey. They also took a flyer on WR Skyy Moore who was a bust in Kansas City. That’s a low cost move and Moore is a talented player who may just need a change of scenery.

Going into training camp it felt like Cam Ward was the one rookie QB worth paying attention to with Saints QB Tyler Shough another possibility. Ward showed he could be a problem in Tennessee, maybe sooner rather than later. Shough lost the starting job to Spencer Rattler, that’s not a good sign. Giant’s rookie QB Jaxson Dart looked awesome when he played and Russell Wilson is on notice. The Giants don’t have an easy slate to start the year and if Russell struggles, Dart’s getting that job pretty quickly.

There are two expensive veteran QBs who need to have good seasons or their teams may look to move on from them. There are enough teams who need starting QBs next year that they could look into trading for these guys. Trevor Lawrence is out of excuses in Jacksonville, it’s put up or get out time. Kyler Murray is in year seven and if it doesn’t get better on offense in Arizona and they stagnate, he could be gone. Maybe they get traded for each other.

The other QBs to keep an eye on for potential moves maybe even as early as the trade deadline this year are Kirk Cousins and Tanner McKee. Cousins is still in Atlanta and they will wait to see if Michael Penix Jr. is the answer there. McKee is the backup in Philadelphia and he’s got some buzz about how good he is. Howie Roseman picked up Sam Howell as his third QB because he knows McKee has value and he will either trade him before the deadline this year or look to move him this off season.

It’s always interesting to look at who the first coach fired will be. Brian Daboll (Giants), Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) and Shane Steichen (Colts) feel like the early leaders. Steichen is counting on Daniel Jones at QB so that’s not great but the Colts schedule isn’t that hard to start off the year, he should survive a while. The Dolphins schedule isn’t that hard but three of the first five games are against their division, if they start 1-4, it’s gets dicey. Daboll could easily start the year 0-4, they start at Washington, at Dallas, home against Kansas City, home against the Chargers, that’s rough. However, week 5 is against the Saints and Daboll has the Jaxson Dart card to play.

The guy who could very easily be gone by week five or shortly there after is Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. It’s completely unfair because of the QB hand he’s been dealt but the reality is this team is facing a daunting schedule to start the year. They go Cincinnati, at Baltimore, Green Bay, at Detroit, then Minnesota the first five weeks and going from Joe Flacco to Dillon Gabriel or Shadeur Sanders isn’t going to give anyone a lot of hope. The next three after that are at Pittsburgh, Miami, and at New England, not exactly any gimmes in that. For Stefanski’s sake, I hope he gets fired so he can go coach somewhere that isn’t a trainwreck, he’s a good coach who deserves better. I think things go very poorly in Cleveland and the ownership group has to make a change, Stefanski gets canned, GM Andrew Berry won’t be far behind. Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz is the most likely interim head coach.

2025 AFC South Preview

Houston Texans

DeMeco Ryans was unhappy with the offense last season so he fired OC Bobby Slowik along with their offensive line coach and hired Nick Caley, who is coming from the Rams.  Caley spent the last few seasons under Seah McVay and before that spent a number of years in New England so he has a varied offensive background.  The defense was excellent last season and Ryans is looking to build on that on that side of the ball. 

QB CJ Stroud had a sophomore slump compared to his rookie season but then again, his rookie season was great so it’s all relative.  The offense was pedestrian at best with unimaginative play calling, an offensive line that was awful, and a WR group that was thinned out by injury.  WR Nico Collins is one of the best in the league but by the end of last season he was a one-man show.  Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both got injured and the team decided to be sure they aren’t short-handed this year.  Diggs is gone and Dell’s injury was late in the year and devastating so no one’s sure when he’ll be back and they probably aren’t counting on it this year.  The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to start in the slot.  They drafted Jayden Higgins and he’ll start at the X.  Collins, Higgins, and Kirk are a good trio for Stroud.  They didn’t stop there, they drafted Jaylin Noel, he backs up Kirk. They signed Justin Watson from Kansas City; he’ll back up Higgins.  And they still have Xavier Hutchinson and Braxton Barrios too.  TE Dalton Schultz is a solid player and is backed by Cade Stover.

The offensive line was abysmal last year so they turned it over completely this off season.  Initially the plan was replacing Laremy Tunsil at LT with Cam Robinson but rookie second rounder Aireontae Ersery beat out Robinson.  That’s good news since Robinson is a replacement level player only.  Tytus Howard was supposed to be one of the guards but he’s taken the RT spot from Blake Fisher.  Fisher was pretty awful last year so it’s not surprising.  At guard, they have Laken Tomlinson on the left side and Ed Ingram on the right.  Those two were terrible in Seattle and Minnesota respectively last year so they have to be hoping they will be better in Caley’s offense, that’s a major bet they’re making.  At center they had both Jarrett Patterson and Juice Scruggs, guys who have started before, but it’s former Patriots’ castoff Jake Andrews who won the job out of camp.  Andrews is a talented player who was just never healthy in New England.  He might be an upgrade if he can stay healthy. 

RB Joe Mixon carried the load last year but he’s already hurt and it’s not apparent when he’ll be ready to play.  Nick Chubb is his backup but reports from camp are he looks slow coming off his injuries.  Dameon Peirce has been underwhelming which leaves rookie Woody Marks looking to carry the load, that’s not ideal. Someone is going to have to be the RB here, it’s just not clear who’s going to take the job.   

The Texans’ defense has been good under DeMeco Ryans and last year they were very good.  The front is led by DE Danielle Hunter and DE Will Anderson Jr.  They are a dynamic pair off the edge but they need a little more help inside.  A healthy return for guys like Folorunso Fatukasi and Denico Autry would help.  They re-signed Sheldon Rankins who was good for them two years ago but was awful in Cincinnati last season.  They hope Darrell Taylor gives them some edge depth with Derek Barnett too. 

The LBs are solid but not spectacular.  MLB Azeez Al-Shaair is well-versed in Ryans’ defense and Christian Harris and Henry To’o To’o are solid players flanking him.  CB Derrick Stingley Jr. is one of the two or three best corners in the NFL and they rely on him to take his guy out of the offense.  CB Kamari Lassiter was a steal in last year’s draft and held up quite well opposite Stingley.  FS Calen Bullock also stepped in as a starter last year and he was quite good.  The team traded for CJ Gardner-Johnson in the off season but he just had a knee injury that is going to affect his availability.  They still have Jalen Pitre and he’s an excellent nickel but he may have to play some more traditional safety if Gardner-Johnson is out very long. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

The front office and coaching staff have undergone complete makeovers and it was all overdue.  GM James Gladstone replaces Trent Baalke and Liam Coen comes in at head coach.  The roster isn’t changing a ton because they have some good players and they believe a better coaching staff will get more out of these guys.  It starts with Coen bringing in a new offense which is long overdue.

QB Trevor Lawrence is signed to a major contract and the team’s success is tied to him whether they like it or not.  Coen was hired to do what Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson couldn’t do, get Lawrence to live up to his considerable talent.  Lawrence is one of the most physically gifted QBs in the league but hasn’t had an offense that takes advantage of him.  Coen got the absolute most out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last season and while Tampa’s WR group is more accomplished than the one the Jaguars have, the Jaguars have some serious talent to work with.

Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie and established himself as an elite WR even in a bad offense.  The team signed Dyami Brown to a decent one-year contract after his solid season in Washington and he gives them another skill set.  Finally, the team traded up in round one to get Travis Hunter and while they do plan on using him some at CB, his primary role for now will be as the WR2 for this team.  They made a late preseason trade for Tim Patrick from Detroit, he’s a solid pickup.  All three of those guys can be legitimate playmakers.  The team let Evan Engram go at TE but Brenton Strange is a good young player who probably fits Coen’s offense a little better. 

The offensive line isn’t teeming with elite players but the team hopes they have upgraded at a few spots and that the whole will be more than the sum of its parts.  Coen had a good offensive line in Tampa and they hope he can work some magic here.  LT Walker Little took over for Cam Robinson last year and while he’s not a Pro Bowler, he’s better than Robinson.  They traded for Ezra Cleveland and then re-signed him so they hope he’s solid at LG.  RT Anton Harrison wasn’t as good last year as his rookie season but he still has talent.  The C and RG spots are new as Coen imported Robert Hainsey to take over in the pivot.  Hainsey lost his job to a rookie in Tampa Bay last season so he’s certainly not elite but he’s better than Luke Fortner.  Patrick Mekari has been a long-time Raven who filled a lot of holes with his versatility.  The Jags want him to stick at RG and replace Brandan Scherff who they let go.  It’s possible the line is better but that’s not a guarantee. 

Travis Etienne has been the starting RB whenever he’s been healthy for the last several years but they always seem to be trying to replace him.  Tank Bigsby is the guy they brought in two years ago and he has yet to prove to be better.  They drafted Bhayshul Tuten this year but I’ll believe they are changing RBs when I see it.  Etienne is always underestimated but seems to hold on to the job. 

The defense is returning almost fully intact from a personnel standpoint which means Coen is placing a lot of trust on new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile turning this unit around.  Campanile is inexperienced as a coordinator so it’s going to be interesting to see what he does.  There is talent to work with so it’s not impossible this defense can be good.  The front features DE Josh Hines-Allen and DE Travon Walker on the outside.  These two can get the pressure of the edge any team would desire so that’s a good start.  They aren’t great in the middle with DaVon Hamilton and an aging Arik Armstead at DT.  That’s assuming Armstead his healthy enough to play.  It would help if one of the backups like Maason Smith or Austin Johnson could contribute. 

At LB, Devin Lloyd is a solid MLB and Foyesade Oluokun is fine on the weakside but hopefully Campanile’s defense puts them in better positions to succeed and uses their strengths.  The strongside LB is Yasir Abdullah who’s a young player without a lot of experience or Dennis Gardeck, a veteran coming off an injury.

The secondary would be helped out if Travis Hunter was going to be a full-time CB but for now, he’s going to be used situationally.  CB Tyson Campbell is a solid CB1 even if he’s not one of the top players at the position.  Jarrian Jones will try to hold up as the other outside CB with Hunter likely to step in when needed.  They signed Jourdan Lewis to be their nickel corner and he’s a good player when healthy but that’s not a guarantee.  At safety, Eric Murray is a veteran they have penciled in at SS with Andrew Wingard at FS.  Not the best duo but if the front is good that will help the back end. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are going into the second year of Brian Callahan’s tenure and they are doing it with a new QB, Cam Ward.  Callahan’s offense wasn’t in the best hands last year with Will Levis which is why they took Ward first overall.  They also decided to help the offensive line out with some changes and the offense should be better.  The defense has Dennard Wilson back at DC and they hope to make strides on that side with a few changes. 

Cam Ward is a dynamic player who should give them a higher ceiling than Levis was giving them.  Callahan’s offense is in better hands with Ward.  The entire QB corps turns over as Levis is out for the year with an injury so it’s Ward, backed up by Brandon Allen.  There is also massive turnover at WR.  Calvin Ridley returns as the top player at the position but the rest of the roster will be new.  Veterans Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett were signed to give the offense more consistency.  Lockett is aging but he can still play.  Jefferson is okay but has never really excelled.  They also drafted a couple of rookies in Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike.  This should be a solid group for Ward.  TE Chig Okonkwo is a solid player in the passing game too. 

RB Tony Pollard was a 1000-yard rusher last year behind a suspect offensive line and on an overall suspect offense.  He’s a good player and it should really help him out to get a better line up front.  The team seriously overspent to get LT Dan Moore in free agency but he was the best LT they could sign and he upgrades two positions for them.  Moore is a better LT than JC Latham was last season as a rookie.  Latham is a natural RT and now he moves back to that position and should be a massive upgrade over the guys they played at the position last season.  The also signed veteran RG Kevin Zeitler and while he’s getting up there in age, he’s still playing at high level.  Zeitler and Latham on the right side could be a devastating combo.  LG Peter Skoronski needs to play well but having a better LT next to him should help.  It would also be very helpful if C Lloyd Cushenberry returns healthy.  He was having a good year before he got hurt and they need his consistency inside. 

The defense returns all three starters up front with Sebastian Joseph-Day, T’Vondre Sweat, and Jeffrey Simmons.  Simmons is one of the better DTs in the league and he’s a force up front.  Sweat had a very good year as a rookie at NT and made the line much stronger.  Joseph-Day is a veteran who can hold his own.  They don’t have great depth so they need these guys healthy.  At OLB they will go with Arden Key and most likely Dre’Mont Jones who they signed from Seattle.  Jones is a strange OLB being 6’3 281 lbs., not your typical speed rusher off the edge.  Key is a decent rotation guy but shouldn’t be a full-time player or really a starter either.  They are certainly hoping rookie Oluwafemi Oladejo out of UCLA can give them something off the edge.  Cody Barton was signed to pair with James Williams Jr. at ILB.  It’s not a great pair but they should be serviceable. 

The secondary needs L’Jarius Snead to return at CB after the money and draft capital they spent last year to get him.  He’s coming off an injury but they need the CB1 they paid for or things get rough quickly.  Jarvis Brownlee Jr. was a great find at the other CB spot in the fifth round of last year’s draft but he needs to be the #2 guy.  Roger McCreary is a good nickel guy and they don’t have depth behind these three.  Amani Hooker is a seasoned veteran at SS and they hope veteran Xavier Woods is a good pickup at FS.  Rookie Kevin Winston Jr. was a solid pickup in round three of this year’s draft to be the third safety. 

Indianapolis Colts

GM Chris Ballard has been around a long time and while head coach Shane Steichen has only been around a few years, both guys are tied to the QBs they have chosen to have here.  Anthony Richardson was supposed to be that guy but they are going with Daniel Jones instead.  Their owner Jim Irsay passed away this off season so now his daughters are in charge and Ballard may not have the job security he’s enjoyed before if this QB choice kills their season. 

Richardson is still just a thought experiment at this point and it’s hasn’t gone well.  We know what Daniel Jones is and while it’s not good, it’s preferable to Richardson at this point.  It’s not great when you’re looking at rookie third stringer Riley Leonard and thinking “hey, why not.”

The passing game is dependent on the QB raising the level of the WRs because while Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, are a solid trio of players, they aren’t world beaters on their own.  These guys need a QB who makes them better.  Maybe second year WR AD Mitchell is a guy with that kind of talent but he’s still raw.  TE Tyler Warren was drafted to give this team a playmaker because the WR group is just a group of good players, not difference makers.  Daniel Jones doesn’t inspire confidence but he has a higher floor, in theory, than Richardson.  Ballard and Steichen could be gone quickly if this goes off the rails early in the year. 

The other issue is the offensive line.  LT Bernhard Raimann has really developed into a good player and they signed him to a contract extension, that’s good news.  LG Quenton Nelson probably isn’t the dominant force he once was but he’s still a good guard.  His draft classmate RT Braden Smith was never as dominant like Nelson but he’s always been steady.  He’s been dealing with some mental health issues so the team has to hope he’s ready to play all year.  The real issue is at center and RG where two second-year guys are looking to take over.  C Tanor Bortolini is being counted on to replace Ryan Kelly while Matt Goncalves is looking to replace Will Fries full-time at RG.  Goncalves played some for Fries last year but now these jobs belong to them.  Kelly was aging and Fries had some injury issues but these two were awesome when they played together.  Bortolini and Goncalves have big shoes to fill.  RB Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in football but he does need some blocking to get going.  That’s especially true if the passing game isn’t threatening anyone. 

The biggest change on defense is the scheme as the team is moving on from Gus Bradley and hired Lou Anarumo from Cincinnati.  Cincinnati’s defense has struggled under Anarumo but that was largely due to them ignoring the defensive personnel, the Colts added some good pieces in the off season.  They are largely unchanged up front as they are hoping for development from Latu Laiatu at DE after a solid rookie year.  Kwity Paye is the other DE and they hope getting Samson Ebukam back as a pass rusher helps.  DT DeForest Buckner isn’t getting any younger but he can still play.  Grover Stewart is even older but he’s still solid.  They could use some young depth to step forward. 

The LB group is underwhelming with MLB Zaire Franklin and assumably Cameron McGrone at the other spot.  Franklin is fine but he’s 29 and undistinguished at this point.  McGrone is going into year five and hasn’t really done anything at all.  Where this team made some moves in the secondary where it was certainly needed.  They signed CB Charvarius Ward after going years without a real CB1, Ward is that guy.  They cut JuJu Brents after another lost season to injury which leaves Jaylon Jones as the other starting outside CB.  Kenny Moore II is back as the slot guy, he’s still really good there.  At safety, they team signed Cam Bynum at FS and he was very good in Minnesota last year.  Nick Cross returns at SS and he’s fine.  The best news is that Lou Anarumo can put together a good defense if he has the guys to run it and this group has the type of solid veterans he prefers because it’s generally a complicated game plan.  The LB group leaves plenty to be desired but if the Colts are bad, I don’t think it will be because the defense is terrible.  It will be because the offense left the defense on the field too much.