Most Valuable Player
Top Contenders: QB Matthew Stafford, QB Drake Maye, QB Josh Allen, QB Lamar Jackson, WR Puka Nacua, RB Jonathan Taylor, QB Joe Burrow, RB Bijan Robinson, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Christian McCaffrey
Dark Horse Candidates: QB Justin Herbert, QB Trevor Lawrence
Stafford won the award last year and he returns his whole offense and plays for one of the best offensive minds in football. He’s a top contender until either his age or his back issues catch up with him or he retires. Drake Maye finished second last year in his second year in the league, he’s going to be in the race for the foreseeable future. Josh Allen has won the award and if he takes the Bills back to the top of the AFC, he’ll be right back in contention. Lamar Jackson was hurt last year and now has a new offensive system, if he’s back, he’s in contention.
Puka Nacua is arguably the best WR in football and Stafford loves him. Stafford takes away from his votes though. Jonathan Taylor looked like an MVP candidate for the first half of the year last year, he could pull it off if he has a full season like that. Burrow has to stay healthy, and the Bengals have to win for him to be in the race, if he does and they do, he’s in the race. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are two of the best RBs in the game, if their teams are good, they can be in the conversation. McCaffrey may be a victim of his own success. Last year he was a one-man offense and barely got any recognition for it. His incredible numbers have become the expectation at this point.
Justin Herbert has always been one of the most physically gifted QBs in football and now he has an offensive coordinator who might actually understand how to use him. If he’s unleashed, his season could be incredible. Trevor Lawrence fits the same mold except now he’s in his second season with his offensive genius. If the last half of last year is any indication, he could finally live up to his reputation.
My Pick: Drake Maye
Sure, it’s a homer pick but it’s a legitimate possibility. He almost won it last year with Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte as his primary weapons. Now he has a pissed off AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs as his top guys. No QB upgraded their weapons like Maye did and we all know it’s a QBs award at this point.
Offensive Player of the Year
Top Contenders: WR Jaxon Smith-Njiba, WR Puka Nacua, RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Bijan Robinson, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Saquon Barkley, WR AJ Brown
Dark Horse Candidates: RB Kenneth Walker III, RB James Cook
Smith-Njiba won the award going away last year because he was the Seahawks passing game. Nacua actually had a better statistical year overall, but he was overshadowed by Stafford’s MVP year, maybe he gets this award this year. Taylor is always a threat to win it; he’s a true work horse back. Bijan Robinson might have to carry the Falcons offense this season given their QB situation, he can certainly handle it. Gibbs will be relied on even more in Detroit with David Montgomery gone to Houston. McCaffrey is still the best all-around weapon in football; he’s an incredible runner and an incredible receiver. Barkley could rebound if Philly’s offensive line gets healthy and the new OC relies on him instead of Jalen Hurts. AJ Brown is on a mission this season to show he’s not done yet. With Drake Maye’s ability to throw down the field, Brown could put up some ridiculous numbers.
Walker was signed in Kansas City to take some pressure off Patrick Mahomes and if he’s the big play guy, they want him to be, his numbers could be impressive. Cook’s numbers already are impressive; he just gets overshadowed by Josh Allen in Buffalo.
My Pick: RB Jahmyr Gibbs
I think Gibbs is in for a great year. The offensive line in Detroit should be much improved, and the new offensive coordinator has to be better than the guy they had last year. Gibbs shouldered a bigger load last year and he should be ready to be the guy this year from the start.
Defensive Player of the Year
Top Contenders: DE Myles Garrett, CB Patrick Surtain II, CB Derek Stingley Jr., CB Christian Gonzalez, DE Will Anderson Jr., DE Aidan Hutchinson
Dark Horse Candidates: CB Trent McDuffie, LB Jack Campbell
It’s hard to see someone else winning this award after the season Garrett had last year and now, he’s actually playing for a real Super Bowl contender. The two things that could hurt him is that he’s already won the award and he has more help on the Rams so his numbers may only be awesome instead of record-breaking. Surtain has won the award before too, but he is still generally considered the best cover corner in football, although his competition is getting closer.
Stingley is one guy coming for Surtain’s title and so is Christian Gonzalez. Both those guys could make the leap this year as the top CB in football, it’s not out of reach for either. Will Anderson Jr. is one of the elite edge players in football both against the run and pass. He doesn’t have the sack numbers of the very top edge guys, but he’s respected as a cornerstone of the best defense in football. Hutchinson is a one-man wrecking crew on Detroit’s defensive line. If the defense was better overall, he might get more recognition for this award.
McDuffie has been one of the best corners in football and now he’s playing on a defense with Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald up front. If he can take advantage of that and up his interception total, he might get noticed. It’s hard for a LB to win this award but Jack Campbell is about to put himself in position as the best LB in football. It’s been Fred Warner’s title for years but he’s coming off an injury and he’s getting older; Campbell is the next guy up.
My Pick: DE Myles Garrett
I want to pick Christian Gonzalez but betting against Garrett is just dumb at this point. He probably won’t have 23 sacks again this year because Aaron Donald, and some other Rams will steal some from him. However, when he has 18 sacks and the Rams are the NFC’s top seed in the playoffs, it will be hard not to vote for Garrett.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Top Contenders: RB Jeremiah Love, RB Jadarian Price, WR Carnell Tate, WR De’Zhaun Stribling, WR Denzel Boston
Dark Horse Candidates: WR Ja’Kobi Lane, OT Monroe Freeling, C Jake Slaughter, WR Malachi Fields
There isn’t a rookie QB to really count on since Fernando Mendoza is starting the year as the backup (maybe third-string) in Vegas. That really puts Jeremiah Love in the driver’s seat. He should get the biggest share of the carries in Arizona and he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Price will be the guy in Seattle until Zach Charbonnett gets healthy, and even after that, it might still be his job. Tate should make some big plays for Cam Ward, if he gets enough targets, he could win the award. De’Zhaun Stribling and Denzel Boston are two second-round WRs who have risen up to the top of the depth charts for their team. Stribling at least has Brock Purdy throwing to him and so far, he might be the only 49ers WR who’s healthy. Boston is a freak and the crappy QBs in Cleveland have to throw the ball to someone.
Ja’Kobi Lane has been all the talk in Baltimore, he’s the type of big, physical WR they have lacked for years. Offensive linemen don’t win this award, but Monroe Freeling is stepping in as a starter immediately in Carolina and if he’s good and the skill guys this year don’t flash, he could be the pick. Slaughter is in a similar spot having to step in for an injured veteran and if he plays well for Mike McDaniel and helps the Chargers offense look good, he gets a look. Malachi Fields is starting opposite Malik Nabers in New York. That’s a high profile spot and Jaxson Dart has to throw TDs to someone.
My VERY DEEP Dark Horse: RB Jonah Coleman
JK Dobbins is going to get hurt in Denver, that’s a given. They won’t go to RJ Harvey as their lead back, Coleman will get the job. His candidacy really depends on how soon Dobbins goes out. The more Coleman plays, the better his chances of winning this award.
My Pick: RB Jeremiah Love
This isn’t the most inspiring group of skill position players to bet on. Some guys aren’t in great situations, like Love, the Cardinals aren’t going to be good. This might be the year a really good lineman wins it and Freeling is the guy with the most upside. I can’t bet against Love, he’s such a great talent. If he has 1200 yards rushing and catches 50 passes, he’ll win the award. If Coleman gets the Denver job early in the year, he’s getting 1200 yards rushing, he just won’t get the receiving numbers because that’s RJ Harvey’s game.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Top Contenders: Edge David Bailey, Edge Rueben Bain Jr., S Caleb Downs, CB Mansoor Delane, LB Arvell Reese, S Dillon Thieneman
Dark Horse Candidates: DT Caleb Banks, S AJ Haulcy, S Treydan Stukes, LB CJ Allen
David Bailey is going to be a big part of the pass rush for the Jets, I’m just not sure the Jets defense is going to be good enough for it to matter. Bain is going to be the guy in Tampa Bay’s pass rush and if they are a playoff team, he could win this award in a walk. Downs is going to be the nickel in Dallas, that means plenty of opportunities to make plays and make tackles. Delane will start in Kansas City, he might even be their top CB. Carson Schwesinger proved a LB could win this award racking up tackles last year, Arvell Reese could be that guy for the Giants this year. Thieneman could be a big play guy for the Bears defense if they get him some pass rush help up front.
If Caleb Banks’ foot is healthy, he’s freak of nature who could single-handily change the Vikings defense. Haulcy won the starting safety job in Indianapolis; he’s going to rack up tackles there. Stukes could be a ball hawking safety for the Raiders; they haven’t had one of those in a while. Allen is like Reese, he could be one of the big tackle leaders for the year, the Colts LB group isn’t great.
My Pick: Edge Rueben Bain Jr.
It’s hard to bet against a guy who Tampa Bay has to unleash as their top edge rusher, and a guy who’s motor runs as hot as Bain’s. He’s going to be a menace off the edge and Todd Bowles has every reason to use him to his fullest, he’s trying to save his job. If it’s not Bain, it’s Bailey, I love David Bailey, I wish he didn’t play for the Jets.
Playoff Predictions
NFC Playoff Teams
Division Winners
Philadelphia
Chicago
New Orleans
LA Rams
Wildcard Teams
Seattle
Green Bay
Dallas
NFC Championship Game
LA Rams vs. Seattle
AFC Playoff Teams
Division Winners
New England
Cincinnati
Houston
LA Chargers
Wildcard Teams
Buffalo
Jacksonville
Baltimore
AFC Championship Game
New England vs. Houston
Super Bowl
New England vs. LA Rams
Super Bowl Champions
LA Rams (as much as I want to pick New England, the Rams are so stacked it’s hard to think they won’t win it in SoFi Stadium)
Thoughts and Predictions
- Last year I wasn’t disappointed that the Patriots lost the Super Bowl, that may sound strange, but they weren’t supposed to be there. Losing another one would suck and this one would hurt a lot more. However, Drake Maye gives the Patriots an open window to Super Bowl contention for years to come. There is no substitute for having an elite QB running your team.
- I usually look at the first coach fired and that’s too easy this year. Aaron Glenn’s seat in New York is scorching already. I would say no one will ever fire a coach after week 1 in year two, but the Jets start the season against Tennessee and Rober Saleh, the guy they fired before hiring Glenn. The Titans are supposed to be bad too, but Saleh is going to have his team ready for that game and the Titans have some guys on defense. I don’t think Glenn gets fired if they lose week 1 to Tennessee but I won’t be surprised if he does. They do have Frank Reich on staff to be the interim. Also, if they win week 1, Glenn isn’t out of the woods. They play Green Bay, Detroit, and Chicago, the next three weeks, that’s a 1-3 start at best. Then comes Cleveland in week 5. If the Jets lose to Cleveland to start the year 1-4, he’s gone then. I’m looking forward to the Patriots week 6 game against the Frank Reich-led Jets.
- Glenn might be the first coach fired but he’s not alone in needing to get off to a good start. Todd Bowles is on thin ice in Tampa Bay and their schedule doesn’t start off easy. Cincinnati and Cleveland to start, then Minnesota, Green Bay, Dallas, and Pittsburgh. Cleveland is the only gimme in that group. Carolina, Atlanta, and Chicago going into their week 10 bye. If the Bucs start the season 2-7 or 3-6 going into their bye, that could be the end for Bowles. They don’t have an obvious interim candidate but new OC Zac Robinson could give them a fresh start or long-time NFL defensive assistant George Edwards could steer the ship the rest of the season.
- There are other coaches who have to get off to good starts to cool their seats. These guys probably don’t get fired during the season unless things really go off the rails. Dan Quinn in Washington, replaced both his coordinators this off season, he has no one left to blame but himself. Zac Taylor in Cincinnati has had injury issues he could blame for the Bengals offensive issues and a bad defense. They spent on the defense and if Burrow is healthy, the Bengals need to be a playoff contender and an AFC Championship contender. Kevin O’Connell is staking his QB whisperer reputation in Minnesota on Kyler Murray. That’s not a bet I would want to make and they have Brian Flores on the staff. Flores is going to be a head coach again someday (once his lawsuit against the NFL is over), why not in Minnesota. Todd Monken just took over Cleveland but if there is going to be a one-and-done head coach this cycle, it’s Monken in the most dysfunctional place in the NFL.
- The one other coach we have to discuss is a guy who is not getting fired and probably isn’t going anywhere but if the wheels come off, retirement is possible. Andy Reid has been losing steam over the last few seasons and if Ken Walker isn’t enough to turn around the offensive regression in Kansas City, tough questions have to be asked. Reid is 68 years old, has nothing left to prove, and he’ll want to go out on his own terms. If KC doesn’t turn the offense around this season, it’s time for either Reid to walk away or he has to clean house on the offensive staff completely and find a new, young guy to overhaul things. It would also help if their front office would get Patrick Mahomes a real threat at WR and a new TE would be nice.
There are a few young coaching candidates to keep in mind when openings come up. It feels like the last few years have picked the coaching tree clean but here’s a few guys to watch.
- The Rams OC Nate Scheelhaase is the next guy off the Sean McVay tree, he’s 35 and it’s only a matter of time for him.
- Rams DC Chris Shula will also be high on many lists. He’s 40, has the bloodlines (ever heard of Don Shula?), and he’s about to run the craziest defense in the NFL with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trent McDuffie. He’ll have his pick of jobs next season.
- Ravens OC Declan Doyle is climbing the ladder quickly, from Denver’s TE coach, to Bears OC under Ben Johnson, to Jesse Minter’s OC in Baltimore in three years. Next year, he could be a hot coaching candidate if Lamar Jackson has a bounce back year.
- A quiet one that should get more attention is Texans DC Matt Burke. DeMeco Ryans gets a lot of credit in Houston for their ridiculous defense and it’s unfair to overlook Burke. He took over play calling and the defense got even better. He’s not as young as the others, he’s 50, and has never been a head coach. He’s spent a long time in the NFL as an assistant and he deserves a chance.
- The last one I’ll throw out is also in Baltimore. Jesse Minter hired Anthony Weaver as his DC and he won’t get credit when the Raven’s defense is good this year, it will all go to Minter. However, Weaver is an excellent coach who did more with less in Miami last year and he should also get a real long look from teams looking for new leadership.
A few other random thoughts
- AJ Brown is going to have a monster season
- Brian Thomas Jr is going to bounce back and have a very good year in Jacksonville
- The Dolphins are not going to be good but they aren’t going to be as bad as every is projecting, they won’t have the #1 pick in the draft
- Two rookie RBs I think have good years that people aren’t talking about, Jonah Coleman in Denver and Emmett Johnson in Kansas City. JK Dobbins will get hurt and Coleman will play. Kenneth Walker III isn’t going to completely carry the load in KC, they will use Johnson, he’s a good back
- The Browns kept four QBs on the opening day roster; Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and Taylen Green. I think there’s a legitimate chance they start at least four different QBs this season and I don’t think Green is one of them. They pick up some random veteran at some point and try it just because why not?
- Some QB is going to get traded early in the season. Tua, Shedeur, Tanner McKee maybe, I’m not sure but there are teams that need a QB and there will be movement. Maybe the Browns send Shedeur to Philly in a trade for Tanner McKee, just a thought
- The Bengals defense and the Texans offense will both be much improved units this season and those two teams will be two of the final four teams left in the AFC playoff race. Cincinnati, Houston, New England, and I’m not sure of the fourth
- Two teams in each conference I don’t have in the playoffs that might surprise you…No Detroit or San Francisco in the NFC. I have Dallas as the seventh team and I think Detroit’s defense will cost them, and I don’t trust San Fran’s health. In the AFC it’s Denver and Kansas City. I think the Chargers win the West, the North gets two teams and south gets two teams, keeping Denver and KC at home. It makes KC take a long look at themselves in the off season, Denver, well I’m not sure why I guess maybe I don’t trust Bo Nix.
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