Tag: college-football

2025 Iowa Hawkeye Offense Preview

The college football landscape has undergone massive changes of the past several years and while Kirk Ferentz had to be dragged into the new millennium on the offensive side of the ball, he seems to be embracing the changes otherwise. Revenue sharing, NIL, and the transfer portal have upended the sport but Ferentz seems to be rolling with it at this point.  Iowa desperately needed to fix the QB position if they are ever going to be good again and the entire position has been reset in the last year.  Not a single QB has been on the roster for more than the last year and every one of the new guys is Tim Lester approved.  It was a microcosm of what was wrong with the offense overall.  Poor recruiting evaluations led to a lack of talent.  Poor coaching of the position led to no development of any talent that was available.  And a bad offensive system highlighted every weakness. 

Tim Lester and his new Shanahan-style offense, plus his ability to find and recruit new talent has turned over the whole roster at QB and remade the offense.  This is year two and now he has the talent to make the passing offense a complement to the running game instead of an anchor.  Throughout the spring the reports were that the offense was playing far better than the defense and that was with the backup QB running the show.  It wasn’t just the QB position that was the problem, the WR group has been an issue for just as long as the QB group.  That position has seen turnover too and looks quite a bit different now.  That’s a very good thing.   

The RB position is stacked even after the loss of one of the most impressive RBs Iowa has ever had, Kaleb Johnson, to the NFL.  The production will more than likely be by the group as a whole as opposed to one guy running wild but the run game will be fine.  That’s because the offensive line returns some serious talent and the new Shanahan offense is built on running the ball.  The line is missing a few key players from last season but they should be able to replace them.  The fullback position has largely been phased out and the TE position took a step back last season but guys like Addison Ostrenga, Zach Ortwerth, and Hayden Large will still be used on offense.  This is the best Iowa’s offense has looked in quite some time and the expectations reflect that.  Let’s take a look at Iowa’s offense. 

Quarterback
Starter: Mark Gronowski (Sr)
Backup: Hank Brown (Soph)
Depth: Jeremy Hecklinski (RS Fr), Jackson Stratton (Jr), Jimmy Sullivan (Fr)

The QB position has been a massive disappointment since Nate Stanley graduated and while the Hawkeyes have tried multiple players, including transfers, to fix the position, it hasn’t gone well. The lack of a legitimate QB coach and the poor evaluations in recruiting were the main issues but the poor offensive system made it all worse. Tim Lester came in last year and tried to fix it but just didn’t have the talent available and implementing his passing offense takes time.
This year, the Hawkeyes overhauled the entire position and that starts with former South Dakota St. superstar Mark Gronowski. Gronowski has over 10,000 passing yards in his college career and was once the National Player of the Year in the FCS. Gronowski is 6’3 230 lbs., he’s a great athlete who can make plays with his legs as well as his arm and he’s the best QB Iowa has seen in quite some time. If the combination of Tim Lester as OC and QB coach and Mark Gronowski at QB doesn’t fix Iowa’s QB problem, all hope may be lost. Gronowski missed spring practice after having shoulder surgery but he’s stepped up over the summer and has taken a real leadership role as the Hawkeyes head to camp.
The Hawkeyes didn’t stop with just a new starter at QB, they overhaul continues down the roster. Hank Brown transferred in from Auburn after starting a few games last year as a redshirt freshman for the Tigers. He was the guy running the offense during spring practice as Gronowski was rehabbing his shoulder and Brown distinguished himself as the backup QB. It would be helpful if he can establish himself as the clear heir apparent so Iowa doesn’t have to go chasing another transfer QB next off season. It looks like the Hawkeyes got a good one and Lester seems to have confidence in Brown.
Jackson Stratton is the longest tenured QB on the roster, he joined the Hawkeyes last summer as a walk-on. Things got pretty rough last year at QB and Stratton actually started a few games at the end of the season. He wasn’t terrible and it’s nice to know the Hawkeyes have some depth but Stratton isn’t guaranteed to be the third QB. I would actually venture to say he loses that spot to Jeremy Hecklinski, the late arriving transfer from Wake Forest. Hecklinski transferred at the end of the spring semester but he started games as a true freshman at Wake Forest and while he’s pretty undersized, he’s a talented QB. True freshman Jimmy Sullivan arrived in December and seems like a solid young prospect but given the way the transfer portal goes, I’m not counting on anything from a freshman QB that likely won’t see the field for a few years at Iowa. If Sullivan is still around in 2027, then we can talk about him.

Running Back
Starters: Kamari Moulton (Soph), Terrell Washington (So)
Backups: Jaziun Patterson (Jr)
Depth: Xavier William (RS Fr), Brevin Doll (RS Fr), Nathan McNeil (Fr)

Kamari Moulton started the first game last season when Kaleb Johnson was serving a suspension for the first half of that game. Johnson took over in the second half and never looked back. That doesn’t mean Moulton isn’t a good RB, he’s actually an excellent talent. He’s most likely the starter to begin the season and he’s going to be productive. The Iowa offense isn’t going to have Kaleb Johnson to lean on and it would be foolish to expect anyone to have the type of year like Johnson had last year. That doesn’t mean the running game is going to suffer. The offensive line should be good and there is a stable of running backs to count on. No one guy will replace Johnson but the group can be great. Moulton also started the bowl game and was quite good. He’s a very good RB who’s going to have to hold off some very talented players behind him.

I listed Terrell Washington as the co-starter with Moulton because I expect big things from him this year. Washington has moved back to RB after spending time last year learning the slot receiver position. Now he brings his skill set back to the RB position and after watching him in the spring and hearing the coaches talk about him, I expect he’ll be a big part of the offense. He’s filled out physically and looks decisive as a runner. He and Moulton should make a good one-two punch.

They won’t be the only guys to get carries but they should get the bulk of them. Jaziun Patterson is the battering ram. He runs hard, he runs low to the ground, and he tries to run through anyone in front of him. He can break a run when he picks the right hole but he doesn’t always have the patience to wait for a hole to open. He takes the handoff and he’s full steam ahead. Patterson isn’t the biggest back but he has solid size.

The true big back would be Xavier Williams if the Hawkeyes decide to unleash him. Williams is 5’10 225 lbs. and has the power that could be really useful if he shows the type of patience we haven’t really seen from Patterson. His running style could be helpful in this offense. Brevin Doll is the other redshirt freshman RB with Williams and he’s the taller, longer, more explosive athlete who will give the Hawkeyes that speed element you want. I’m not convinced we will see Doll a ton this season with so many guys ahead of him but he’s also the type of talent that might force his way on to the field. True freshman Nathan McNeil was an early enrollee who was here for spring practice. He looks like a talented back but he’s going to have to wait his turn.

Wide Receivers
Starters: Seth Anderson (Sr), Jacob Gill (Sr), Reece Vander Zee (So)
Backups: Kaden Wetjen (Sr), Dayton Howard (So), KJ Parker (RS Fr)
Depth: Jarriett Buie (So), Sam Phillips (Sr)

The upgrade at the QB position is clearly the most important upgrade the Hawkeyes have needed to pull off over the last half decade for sure, WR was a close second. Having an offensive scheme that can help WRs get open is really nice but if the guys can’t play, it doesn’t matter. These guys look like they can play. Seth Anderson transferred to Iowa a couple of years ago but has yet to be healthy for any real stretch of time. He finally had a healthy spring practice this year and looked very good. Anderson has solid size at 6’0 187 lbs. and he has excellent speed. If he can add the downfield passing element to the offense, he opens up a lot of possibilities for Iowa. It’s the thing he was brought in to do, now he has to stay healthy and do it.

Jacob Gill was the most consistent WR the Hawkeyes had last year through all of the changes at QB and the shuffling of receivers due to injury. He brings a steadiness and an understanding of the passing game because he probably got the most reps last year during actual games. That consistency will keep him on the field. He may not be a gamebreaker but he’s a guy the QBs can rely on to be where he’s supposed to be.

Reece Vander Zee got off to a hot start in the first few games last season while starting as a true freshman. A true freshman starting at WR isn’t a common occurrence at Iowa so Vander Zee clearly has the talent. He got injured and never got back to full strength so we never really got to see him after those first few games. He steps back in as a starter and he’s filled out his frame so hopefully he can hold up to the rigors of Big Ten football a little better. He gives the Hawkeyes offense a different skill set as he’s the traditional X position receiver who’s 6’4 215 lbs. and he plays to his size. Iowa hasn’t had a guy like that since Brandon Smith graduated.

I can’t remember the last time Iowa had depth at WR, if there has ever been a time Iowa had depth at WR. Kaden Wetjen is the All-American returner who’s hoping to become more of a WR and this one didn’t transfer to Purdue to do it. Tim Lester seems to have a plan to use Wetjen’s game breaking speed and find ways to get him involved in the offense. Dayton Howard was a guy who stood out a bit in spring practice too and he gives the Hawkeyes size like Vander Zee does. He’s 6’5 215 lbs. and started to get some playing time late last season. Lester pointed out that he’s coming around mentally with his game. With his physical gifts, that could make him scary. KJ Parker was the star of bowl prep to end last season and kept it up during spring practice. He’s not overwhelming physically at 5’10 184 lbs. and he’s not just outrunning everyone, he’s got actual WR skills and that’s going to get him on the field.

Jarriett Buie was getting playing time at the end of last year including having a solid showing in the bowl game. At this point it’s not as if he’s not progressing but if seems like other guys are progressing more than he is and standing out. Buie should play this year but his time might be limited if Vander Zee and Howard are filling the big WR role. Sam Phillips is the wild card. He just transferred to Iowa and while he was around for spring practice, he’s still finding his way. He’s undersized but he’s got elite speed and has a lot of reps at WR so his experience should help him. If Phillips adds some more big plays to the offense, things get very interesting. I don’t remember a time when Iowa had eight WRs they could actually play and it wouldn’t be a total disaster. The depth they have is quite nice.

Tight End
Starter: Addison Ostrenga (Sr)
Backup: Zach Ortwerth (Jr)
Depth: Hayden Large (Sr), Michael Burt (RS Fr), DJ Vonnahme (RS Fr)

The TE position has taken a little bit of a backseat to the WR group given the new offensive scheme, it seems to favor three WRs over Iowa’s two TE sets, and even more so, replacing the fullback. That doesn’t mean Iowa doesn’t still have talent at TE. Addison Ostrenga probably isn’t Sam LaPorta or TJ Hockenson but he’s a very good TE. He’ll be a part of the offense he just won’t be featured in it as long as Iowa has some WRs step up.

Zach Ortwerth stepped in last year when Iowa needed some depth at TE and showed he has some skills when it comes to catching the ball down field. He’s next in line after Ostrenga and if teams don’t pay attention to him, he’s going to burn them. Hayden Large will be the third TE and if the team needs a guy to line up at fullback, Large will do that too.

Michael Burt and DJ Vonnahme are two redshirt freshmen who add depth but will hopefully not be needed in any meaningful way this season. Iowa also has three true freshmen TEs; Mason Woods, Thomas Meyer, and Eli Johnson, I wouldn’t expect any of them to play this season.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Jack Dotzler (Jr), LG Beau Stephens (Sr), C Logan Jones (Sr), RG Kade Pieper (So), RT Gennings Dunker (Sr).
Backups: T Trevor Lauck (So), T Bryce George (Sr), G/C Michael Myslinski (Sr), G Leighton Jones (So), G Kale Krogh (Jr), T Cannon Leonard (So)
Depth: G Cael Winter (So), G Josh Janowski (RS Fr), T Will Nolan (RS Fr), T Bodey McCaslin (RS Fr), T Lucas Allgeyer (Fr)

The offensive line was excellent last year and they return essentially three starters and they should feel pretty good about a fourth. The fifth spot is a question and they may need most of, if not all, training camp to figure out the LT position. The three starters are two guys who are rock solid and one guy they need to stay healthy. C Logan Jones is one of the best centers in the country and he should be a fairly high NFL draft pick. It’s been a journey over his multiple years as a starter; it wasn’t always pretty. However, he’s become a rock and he’s powerful and athletic and works very well in the offensive scheme.

RT Gennings Dunker is the other sure thing on the line. He’s a beast on the right side and he was a big reason Kaleb Johnson had a great year running the ball last season. Dunker missed spring practice after having surgery but he did it then so he would be ready for the season. He’s going to be a guard in the NFL but he’s one of the better RTs in college football. LG Beau Stephens is the other returning starter but he’s a guy who needs to stay healthy. He’s essentially been a starter for two years but he can’t make it through a season fully healthy. The Hawkeyes should have some solid interior backups but the hope is that Stephens can stay on the field because he’s a monster on the interior. They also need him to stay healthy to stabilize the left side of the line as they figure out LT.

The fourth starter the team should feel good about is new RG Kade Pieper. He’s stepping in to the spot vacated by Connor Colby and those are big shoes to fill. Pieper has gotten playing time since he was a true freshman and if you can get playing time at Iowa as a true freshman on the offensive line, you’re good. He’s a great athlete with some serious power to his game; he should be fine.

The LT spot is the big question. Jack Dotzler has been listed as the backup at LT for years but he was never the top backup tackle to come into the game. Nick DeJong is finally out of eligibility so the Hawkeyes will have to count of someone else. Dotzler and Trevor Lauck were fighting it out during spring practice and while Dotzler seems to be listed as the starter for now, that fight isn’t over. Lauck and Dotzler give the Hawkeyes options but clearly the coaches weren’t convinced either is the answer at this point. Enter Bryce George.

George is a transfer from Div. II Ferris State. He was highly successful there as they won multiple National Championships while he was starting on the offensive line. George played RT at Ferris St. but Iowa isn’t looking for a RT, they need a LT and it looks like he’ll get a shot to take that job. He has the size and athleticism to hold his own, it’s the step up in competition that’s going to be hard to deal with. Trevor Lauck is still a young guy the coaches are hoping develops at the position but he may not be ready just yet. Hopefully the coaches can settle on a starter during camp and let the five guys come together as a unit.

The backups at all the positions on the line are inexperienced so hopefully the starters can stay healthy. Michael Myslinski is the only senior among the backups but he doesn’t really have more experience than the younger guys because he’s mostly been injured throughout his career. Kale Krogh is a junior who’s never played in four years. Leighton Jones is a guy the coaches like and he has some versatility as he could play guard or center, so can Mylinski. If Lauck or George don’t win the LT spot they could be viable guard backups as well as RT backups. Cannon Leonard is listed as the backup at RT but it feels like he’s on the Dotzler trajectory of being listed as the backup but not actually getting in to play. He’s going to have to hold off some young OTs as there is some young talent at OT coming up behind him.

Will Nolan, Bodey McCaslin, and Lucas Allgeyer are all young OTs with promise who just need time to develop physically and they can be the future of the offensive line. The Hawkeyes have lost some young offensive linemen before they ever really got going over the past year or two and that’s why they have five verbal commitments in the 2026 recruiting class. They may have to find a few more one-year stopgap starters in 2026 while they wait for the young guys to be ready to contribute.

This offense has everything it needs to finally be a good offense. They don’t have to be a great offense but being above average would be nice. With Mark Gronowski at QB and Tim Lester’s offense I do think the ceiling is higher than just above average. The running game is going to be effective and the passing game is going to be much improved. If they get healthy seasons from the WR group (I’m looking at you Seth Anderson and Reece Vander Zee), and they find a LT (come on Lauck or George), the sky is the limit, relatively speaking. Iowa isn’t going to be Oregon or Ohio St. on offense, but they can be good.

2025 TE Prospect Top 5

This is a pretty good TE class, there isn’t a Brock Bowers type but Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland are going to be first round picks. The WR class isn’t all that great and I could see a few teams grabbing a playmaking TE like Harold Fannin Jr. instead of a WR they aren’t crazy about. There should be some depth here and that will make this class interesting.

Tight Ends

1. Tyler Warren (Penn St.):  Warren had a breakout season with Penn St.  He became Drew Allar’s go-to receiver as Penn St. wasn’t great at WR.  He’s a big target at almost 6’6 and 260 lbs. He has the size and athleticism to be a great receiving TE and still has the strength and bulk to be a blocker.  He’s tough and versatile.  He was a QB at one time and Penn St. used him in the running game, he’s a jack of all trades. 

2. Colston Loveland (Michigan):  Loveland came into the season as the TE1 but Michigan’s less than stellar offense didn’t help him at all.  He also missed a couple of games with an injury and he was simply less productive than he was last year.  However, at 6’5 245 lbs. with the athleticism he has and the production he showed last year, he’s still an elite TE prospect.  Someone is going to get a very good TE in the latter half of round one.  Loveland is going to be a productive NFL TE. 

3. Harold Fannin Jr. (Bowling Green):  Fannin is one of the most unique prospects in the draft.  He’s a 6’4 230 lbs. TE who is basically just a big WR.  He was ridiculously productive at Bowling Green with 117 catches this year but he just won’t fit the typical TE spot.  If you have a plan to use Fannin than feel free to draft him, if you think he’s going to fit into a typical TE role, stay away and draft someone else. 

4. Mason Taylor (LSU):  Taylor is the son of former Dolphins Hall of Famer Jason Taylor and while he’s not the superstar athlete his father was, he’s a pretty good TE.  Taylor was productive for the most part and at 6’5 255 lbs. he has the size to be a good NFL TE.  He’s not going to be an All-Pro but he can be a starting NFL TE for a long time.

5. Elijah Arroyo (Miami):  Arroyo had a breakout season becoming one of Cam Ward’s most dangerous targets.  He’s not the biggest player and he’s not a major blocker at 6’4 245 lbs. but he’s a really terrific athlete and catches the ball well.  He won’t fit every team’s needs but someone will find a way to use him. 

*Other player to mention: Luke Lachey (Iowa):  Lachey has fallen down the draft boards after a tough year.  Coming off a season ending injury the year before, Lachey didn’t look like the player he was before the injury.  It didn’t help that Iowa’s passing game was, once again, terrible.  I would still bet on his talent and his size and the training he had at Iowa and he will outplay his draft slot. 

2025 RB Prospects Top 5

This is a deep group of RB prospects and I actually think there are quite a few guys who will become starters or co-starters (for lack of a better term) pretty quickly. I have 6 guys listed here but I didn’t include Dylan Sampson (Tennessee), Cam Skattebo (Arizona St.), Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma St.), RJ Harvey (UCF), or a number of others. It’s a very good RB class. There’s going to be a 5th or 6th round RB in this draft that plays an important role for his team next season.

Running Backs

1. Ashton Jeanty (Boise St.):  I’ll give Jeanty his due as an excellent running back and he earned the distinction as the top RB in this class, but it’s not as big of a gap as a prospect between him and the next two guys as you might think.  Jeanty is on the shorter side being about 5’9 but that gives him his low center of gravity and makes him really hard to take down.  He bounces off of tacklers because he has great contact balance and then can break away.  He has great vision and does pretty much everything you want a RB to do very well.  My biggest concern is the sheer amount of carries he has taken in his college career and if that might come back to haunt him. 

2. Kaleb Johnson (Iowa):  Patience, vision, and speed.  Kaleb Johnson’s calling cards.  He’s about 6’1 and 225 lbs. and yet he can run away from almost everyone.  Johnson’s upright running style seems like it would make him an easy target to take down in traffic but unless you get to him behind the line of scrimmage, his upper body strength and elite stiff arm make him a terror in traffic.  He also has elite and deceptive speed and absolutely crushes pursuit angles making him hard to catch if he gets the corner on an outside run. If he goes to a zone blocking team in the NFL, his patience to let his blocks set up, his vision to find the right hole, and then his elite speed to the edge are going to make him a dangerous weapon. 

3. Omarion Hampton (North Carolina):  Hampton is ranked ahead of Johnson for a lot of people and it’s understandable.  He’s 6’0 220 lbs. and he has speed and plenty of power.  He was a bit of a forgotten man as North Carolina didn’t have a great year and he didn’t have quite as many big plays like Johnson had.  Hampton is going to be a starting RB in the league for quite a long time.  His contact balance is excellent and he is a really tough runner.  He’s got the speed to make you pay if you let him get the corner. 

4. TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio St.):  Speedy, big play weapon.  Henderson isn’t the guy you’re going to hand the ball off to 25 times in a game, but you want him to touch the ball at least 15.  He has electric speed that can change the game for you.  He is at his best in space with the ball in his hands.  He’s going to be compared to Jahmyr Gibbs a thousand times between now and the draft and the team that takes him is hoping he’s exactly that guy. 

5. Quinshon Judkins (Ohio St.): Is there any wonder Ohio St. won the National Championship.  Judkins transferred in this season from Ole Miss to be the power complement to Henderson’s speed demon.  Go watch the National Championship game and you’ll see what it looks like when Judkins takes over.  He’s 5’11 210 lbs. and uses every last ounce of that size to punish teams, oh, and he’s not slow, he has speed too.  He’s quite the consolation prize if you  miss out on one of the top fours players here. 

*Other player of note: Damien Martinez (Miami) transferred to Miami after having a pretty good career going at Oregon St.  He’s 6’0 230 lbs. and moves really well for a man that size, actually he moves well for a guy 30 lbs. lighter than that.  He didn’t get off to a great start at Miami as he struggled early but he came on later in the season.  He’s big, powerful, and has enough speed to hurt you.  He went to the Senior Bowl and while there weren’t a lot of standout moments for the RBs down there, Martinez looked good.  One thing he did very well that catches the eye is his pass blocking improvement during practice at the Senior Bowl.  If you’re going to be a mid-round RB with the size Martinez has, teams are going to want you to be a good pass blocker.  Martinez looked good doing that. 

2025 QB Prospects Top 5

I don’t usually do this but this draft is so weird it’s hard to do mock drafts right now.  There are six teams in the top 10 that need a QB and it’s a stretch in my mind to put two in the first round.  I thought I’d do a prospect board with my Top 5 guys at each position and then maybe someone outside the Top 5 worth mentioning.  Let’s take a look at the QB position. 

Quarterbacks

1. Cam Ward (Miami):  Ward is my top player at QB.  He’s a good athlete, great arm, and has mobility in the pocket that comes in quite handy.  His game feels a bit chaotic at times but he’s always in control.  He’s not the tallest guy but it doesn’t hinder him.  He isn’t an elite prospect and he should probably be a mid-first round pick but he’s going in the top three because there are teams desperate for QBs in the top three.  I like Ward, I don’t love Ward.  

2. Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): He’s a good player, he’s not a great one.  He is somewhere between Brock Purdy and Jared Goff as a player.  He’s not a great athlete and his arm is good but nowhere near elite.  He’s started for five years so he has plenty of reps under his belt.  He has the confidence and leadership ability of a starting QB but if he goes to a team with a lesser supporting cast, he isn’t going to raise the play of the guys around him.  His success is completely dependent on fit.  

3. Quinn Ewers (Texas):  I might be the only guy out on this island right now but if I have to take a shot on a QB in this draft not named Cam Ward, I’m taking a day two (round two or three) shot on Ewers.  From a physical talent standpoint, he’s as good as anyone in this class.  When he’s on, he’s awesome, unfortunately, he’s not always on.  His inconsistency is maddening but his upside is tantalizing.  I would much prefer Ewers on day two than taking Sanders in round one, it’s a question of opportunity cost.  He’s falling behind guys like Jalen Milroe and Jaxson Dart in the eyes of a lot of scouts but I’m not sold on those guys either. 

4. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss):  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and Dart does some good things but there is something lacking in his game.  Lane Kiffin’s offense makes it pretty simple for the QB so I’m not sure Dart reads the field very well.  He’s a really good athlete but is sometimes too quick to pull the ball down and run when his first read isn’t there.  This may also be because he doesn’t really read much beyond the first or second read.  He does have an accurate arm but he doesn’t have elite arm strength. 

5. Jalen Milroe (Alabama):  I have never been overly impressed with him as a QB.  As an athlete, he’s awesome but at this point he’s a lesser man’s Anthony Richardson, and that is not a complement.  Milroe has a rocket for an arm but has absolutely no touch on any of his passes under 20 yards.  There is a big difference between arm strength and arm talent.  Milroe has arm strength, he can throw it a mile, but he doesn’t have the arm talent to put the ball where it needs to be with the right velocity to get it there and make the pass catchable.  He had a rough last season at Alabama and then his Senior Bowl week was not helpful, he was essentially invisible. 

*Other player to note: Will Howard (Ohio St.): Strange to say Will Howard is a little under the radar since he just led Ohio St. to a National Championship but it really wasn’t until the college football playoffs that his draft stock started to tick up.  He has great size at around 6’4 235 lbs. and he’s got some mobility to him.  Howard has a strong arm that needs a little work on the touch passes but he knows how to play QB.  If the choice is taking Quinn Ewers, Jaxson Dart, or Jalen Milroe on day two or taking Howard on day three, I would seriously consider waiting and taking Howard.  The odds of Howard becoming a legitimate starting QB vs. those three doing it, is not that different.  

2025 Hawkeye Worries

I’m officially worried about the Iowa Hawkeye football program. I feel like I’ve seen this before.  I came to Iowa as a freshman in the fall of 1997 with an Iowa football team that had some exciting players on it and ended that season a disappointing 7-5.  This year’s version of the Hawkeyes feels a bit similar with the way things are going.  Kaleb Johnson was the offense and he was excellent.  While a lot of people compared him to Shonn Greene, there are more similarities to 1997’s Tavian Banks.  Banks was a superstar that season, he was big play waiting to happen and he carried Iowa’s offense.  The Hawkeyes also had one of the most electrifying returners in college football, Tim Dwight.  Punt to him at your own risk.  Dwight was supposed to be a big part of the offense but was largely a decoy and wasn’t nearly as important to the offense as Banks.  Kaden Wetjen isn’t Tim Dwight on offense, but he is a scary returner if you’re the opposing team. Wetjen isn’t anything more than a gadget player on offense, Dwight was more than that for sure but the Iowa passing game wasn’t exactly exciting.  The ’97 Hawkeyes also had WR Damon Gibson, a good player.  The ’24 Hawkeyes have Jacob Gill, a good player.  There were some young, talented WRs in ’97, Kevin Kasper and Tony Collins.  In 2024 we have Jarriett Buie, Reese Vander Zee, and Dayton Howard.  Any of those guys could become Kevin Kasper and have a great Hawkeye career, or they could become Collins, a guy who looked great early and just never put it all together.  The offensive line had some good upperclassmen in Mike Goff and Jeremy McKinney and guys like Derek Rose and Chad Deal were solid.  The 2024 line has been pretty good and has some upperclassmen playing good football, Mason Richman, Connor Colby, and Logan Jones. 

The QB situation is more like 1996 when Matt Sherman was starting but everyone wanted to see Ryan Driscoll and what he could do.  The backup QB being the fan favorite is a tale as old as football.  Cade McNamara wishes he was Matt Sherman, and unfortunately, I don’t think Brendan Sullivan is Driscoll or Sherman.  Once again, an Iowa season is undone by a lack of talent at QB.  McNamara was never the guy he once was at Michigan, you can blame the injuries, you can blame the supporting cast, or you can blame the offensive scheme, but McNamara just wasn’t the same player.  Sullivan is what he is, he’s nice change-of-pace QB who should be used in certain packages, he’s not the full-time starter.   

In 1998 Matt Sherman had graduated and the Hawkeyes had a three-way competition at QB between Kyle McCann, a freshman, and the two returning guys from the depth chart, Randy Reiners and Scott Mullen.  They would eventually all play at some point over the next couple of seasons but they just weren’t good enough.  Brendan Sullivan’s play in the Music City Bowl showed his limitations.   Iowa needs a better passing QB next season because it’s going to be tougher when Kaleb Johnson is in the NFL.  No disrespect to Jaziun Patterson, Kamari Moulton, and the other young backs at Iowa, I really like the talent, but expecting any of them to be Johnson next year is insane.  The passing game has to be better and the Music City Bowl confirmed that it won’t be if Sullivan is running the offense. 

The good news in 2024 is the Hawkeyes have something the 1998 Hawkeyes didn’t have, the transfer portal.  You can hate the portal but if used correctly it can change your entire outlook for next season.  There are three things that can hurt Iowa when looking for a QB in the portal.  The first one is, QBs are expensive and while Iowa’s collective has money, they aren’t ever going to compete at the top of the market.  The second issue is the reputation of Iowa’s offense, it’s bad and while I think Tim Lester has done a good job changing the scheme, you have to show players it works before they will believe you.  That’s hard to do with the QB’s Iowa has had lately.  The third thing that could be a problem is Kirk Ferentz’s loyalty to the guys already on his team.  Iowa didn’t get a lot of looks last season from QBs in the portal because Ferentz’s insistence that McNamara was the starting QB regardless of the fact, he had only played four games the previous season and wasn’t all that great in those games.  If QBs thought they would have a chance to compete for the starting job, perhaps Iowa gets a QB transfer at semester instead of having to wait for Sullivan.  He didn’t transfer until the summer after not winning the QB job at Northwestern.  Ferentz needs to stay out of the way this time, let Tim Lester find a QB he likes and get a guy at semester who can beat out the competition for the starting job.  If Sullivan doesn’t like that, he can move on and Iowa can move on with a new transfer QB and Hank Brown, the developmental guy they already got to replace Marco Lainez.  If they don’t get another transfer QB, then every Iowa fan better hope Hank Brown can beat out Brendan Sullivan to be the starter because the Music City Bowl was not a good look for Sullivan. He simply isn’t the passer you need to run an offense effectively.  His reads are too slow, he’s not decisive in his throws, and he lacks the quick trigger it takes to run Tim Lester’s offense.    

Now, let’s look at why I’m even more worried we are looking at a Hayden Fry 1998-like drop off for the Iowa program.  This roster has enjoyed some stability because of the extra Covid year granted to so many players.  That is about to run out for almost everyone and it’s going to hit Iowa hard, especially the defense. The defense was the reason Iowa lost two of its games this season, Michigan St. and UCLA.  They also struggled against Missouri in the bowl game.  The defense got destroyed against MSU and UCLA and that’s not a good sign.  The bigger issue is losing so much talent and experience from this team.  DE Deontae Craig, DT Yahya Black, LB Nick Jackson, LB Jay Higgins, LB Kyler Fisher, FS Quinn Schulte, CB Jermari Harris, and CASH Sebastian Castro, will all be gone next season.  That’s a major mountain to climb.  The top DE, the top DT, all three starting LBs, the top CB, and your best and most versatile defender, Castro.  I usually give Phil Parker the benefit of the doubt, but that’s a whole lot of production to replace with guys who haven’t played much at all.  If the defense falls off to a level closer to the Michigan St/UCLA game defense, Iowa is in trouble, and offense would have to be astronomically better to make up the difference. 

On offense, they will have a stable of RBs to work with (Patterson and Moulton, plus Terrell Washington Jr, Xavier Williams, and Brevin Doll).  Jacob Gill can be a solid WR (the terrible drop against Missouri not withstanding).  Reece Vander Zee has loads of potential and Jarriett Buie and Dayton Howard still have promise.  We can hope Seth Anderson gets healthy but that feels like the hope you get when you buy a lottery ticket, deep down you know it’s not going your way.  Iowa is always good at TE and they still will be with Addison Ostrenga, Zach Ortwerth, and some freshmen coming up.  The offensive line got a boost with C Logan Jones returning for another year.  Jones and RT Gennings Dunker are a good place to start and if LG Beau Stephens can stay healthy, that’s three returning starters.  Kade Pieper should step into Connor Colby’s RG spot and he’s played snaps since he was a true freshman two years ago.  When the coaches use a true freshman on the offensive line, it means they see some real talent.  The team struck out on the LT from Rice the were hoping to get in the portal but Trevor Lauck should be ready to step in after he ascended to be the backup LT this season.  He’s a young guy and doesn’t have playing experience at LT but he was a highly rated recruit coming out of high school and the coaches need to hit on someone at LT or this team will suffer.          

Hayden Fry was in his 19th season at Iowa in 1997 and it was clear the end was near.  Kirk Ferentz is in year 26 and it’s not so clear when the end is coming but it should be sooner than you think if things go the way they could.  In 1998 the bottom dropped out for Hayden and Hawkeyes won 3 games. Fry walked away and Iowa hired Ferentz after they botched the Bob Stoops thing.  In 2025, if the Hawkeyes don’t find a QB they can count on, they could be facing a similar fate.  Are we in for a slow steady decline to the end of the Ferentz era or is next season the cliff? Next year’s schedule has Oregon and Penn St., two of the better teams in the conference. The four rivalry games; Iowa St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska, three of those on the road, and none of those are ever easy.  Indiana might not be as good as they were this year but they won’t be a cupcake.  The Hawkeyes get Michigan St. at Kinnick but they beat the Hawks last season in Jonathan Smith’s first year, something tells me they might be better in his second year.  That leaves road game at USC and at Rutgers, not exactly guaranteed wins.  It’s a good thing Iowa plays Albany and UMass.

The good news is there are still some good QBs in the portal like South Dakota St.’s Mark Gronowski.  The bad news is Iowa isn’t the only team looking for a starting QB and other schools have more to sell a QB on.  There will be more in the portal but are they upgrades over Sullivan or Hank Brown?  That’s hard to say.  Iowa Hawkeye football may be at a crossroads and I’m not sure it’s clear on the direction it’s heading.  Kirk Ferentz isn’t getting fired this off season, his contract is simply too prohibitive for that to happen.  (Thanks again for that Gary Barta.)  An 8-4 season and another trip to the Music City Bowl feels way too optimistic for the 2025 Iowa Hawkeyes, even 7-5 feels pretty tough at the moment.  If the bottom falls out on a 70 year old Kirk Ferentz, does Beth Goetz have the ability to push Kirk into retirement for the overall health of the program?  Would a 3-9 regular season be enough to raise the money to buyout his contract?  Can Kirk Ferentz and Tim Lester work magic in the portal late in process and pull a rabbit out of the hat to save the QB position and the 2025 season?  Can Phil Parker work a miracle to replace about 8 starters on his defense and revamp the unit that let the team down multiple times this season?  There are a lot of questions to be answered in 2025 for Iowa Hawkeyes.  Happy New Year…we hope.