The 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes

Coaching Staff

The past two years have brought about major turnover on the Hawkeye’s staff.  Last year Greg Davis replaced Ken O’Keefe as offensive coordinator, Brian Ferentz took over the offensive line, Phil Parker was elevated to defensive coordinator and Levar Woods took over the linebackers.  Brian Ferentz’s addition moved Reese Morgan over to coach the defensive line and Woods addition moved Derrell Wilson to the secondary.  This year Kirk Ferentz has made some more moves and I think they will pay dividends.  Former wide receiver’s coach Eric Campbell didn’t mesh well with Greg Davis’ vision and he has been replaced by Bobby Kennedy, a coach far more familiar to Davis from their time together at Texas.  I got to see Kennedy coaching first hand at the spring game back in April and even though I was sitting about 30 rows behind the team I could hear Kennedy just fine.  He brings some fire and attitude to the field and I think that’s a good thing considering the wide receivers left a lot to be desired last year.  Also on the offensive side of the ball Lester Erb has moved on and Chris White was brought in from the Minnesota Vikings staff to coach running backs and special teams.  The Hawkeye’s special teams haven’t exactly been dynamic the past few years so a new voice and a new perspective is a welcome addition.  As for the running back position I don’t think Erb was the problem and I don’t think he had anything to do with “the curse” at the position but I don’t think change will hurt here either.  White is also proving to be a very good recruiter right out of the gate.  The third full-time addition to the staff is Jim Reid who brings 30 years of coaching experience to the defensive side and while he isn’t replacing Phil Parker as defensive coordinator his addition is likely what is allowing Parker to also coach the secondary.  Parker proved for years that he is an exceptional defensive backs coach and his return to that particular part of the defense should make a noticeable difference.  DJ Hernandez came in as a graduate assistant from Miami and he will be coaching the tight end position.  If the name Hernandez and the words tight end make you think of a certain prisoner in New England you’re right, DJ Hernandez is the older brother of the most famous murder suspect in America today.  DJ is by all accounts nothing like his brother and is a well-respected young coach in the business.

After having little to no turnover in his first 13 years at Iowa Kirk Ferentz has turned over virtually the entire staff in the past two years.  Phil Parker and Eric Johnson are the only two coaches left from Ferentz’s first staff and their responsibilities have changed over the years.  Reese Morgan has been at Iowa 14 years and spent many of those coaching the offensive line before moving over to the defensive line last year.  Levar Woods joined the program after his NFL career ended six years ago but he was in an administrative role until last year.  Everyone else on staff is a new addition with in the last two seasons.  The man at the top is still calling the shots but hopefully the new blood will bring fresh ideas and help Coach Ferentz right the ship after a few disappointing seasons and last year’s disaster.

Offense

Quarterback

The Hawkeyes head into fall camp with a three way competition for the starting QB job.  Kirk Ferentz heads in hoping that someone will distinguish themselves enough that he doesn’t have to go in search of a three sided coin.  Spring practice led to a certain pecking order of Jake Rudock, Cody Sokol and CJ Beathard but it certainly didn’t settle anything and none of the three has ever taken a snap in an FBS game.

The Contenders:

Jake Rudock: The third year sophomore has the most practice time as a Hawkeye but that doesn’t exactly mean much considering he has exactly the same amount of time in Greg Davis’ offense as his competition.  The scouting report on Rudock would be something along the lines of accurate on short routes but doesn’t have a big arm.  Given that most of the criticism of Davis’ pass offense last year was that everything was a short route and the team rarely went deep it would seem to work fine for Rudock.  However, Davis seems to like QB’s with mobility and while Rudock isn’t a statue he doesn’t move as well as Sokol.

Cody Sokol:  The JUCO transfer who redshirted last season is the only QB on the roster to take snaps in any kind of college game but that was two years ago in junior college.  Sokol is the more mobile QB in this competition and that is certainly helpful in Davis’ offense but he is known for something else also.  Sokol is a little bit of a “gunslinger” type of QB who thinks he can make every throw and he gambles a bit, this will not endear him to Coach Ferentz.  Ferentz has proven through the years that he prefers QB’s that take care of the ball and he hates turnovers.  If Sokol can prove that he can make good decisions, take care of the ball and still be the playmaker then he may win over Ferentz.

CJ Beathard:  This redshirt freshman is definitely the pure pocket passer of the group and while that may mean he doesn’t fit Davis’ vision his talent may prove to be too much.  What I’ve seen of Beathard coupled with what I’ve heard about him tells me that he may be the best overall passer of the group and he has the arm and the talent to be very good.  If he shows that he knows the offense, can make all of the reads and can make all of the throws he could come out on top of this competition.  Given that Rudock and Sokol don’t have a playing time advantage over Beathard he may offer the most upside and I don’t think he’s going to just go away.  He may be running third at the moment but he isn’t that far behind the competition.

The Future:  Nic Shimonek

The true freshman has loads of talent and he is the first hand-picked Davis QB recruit so he obviously fits the mold.  The problem for Shimonek is that he is listed at 6-4 196 pounds which means he needs some time to grow before he takes on the Big Ten.  He did show some confidence over the summer when he said through social media that the QB’s on campus better watch out, I think it was meant as a little bit of a joke but if I were the three guys ahead of him I wouldn’t count him out.

How I see it playing out: 

I don’t think Iowa will play just one QB like they mistakenly did last year.  I do think Rudock will come out of camp as the starter but only because I think Ferentz trusts him the most.  This team is going to be built on the offensive line, the running game and the defense.  Even with all of the changes to the coaching staff this is still Kirk Ferentz’s team and that formula has worked for him before.  The difference between this year and last year will be can the passing game make enough plays to help this team and I think Rudock will.  I think Sokol will play and they will have a package of plays for him to run but this team will rely on a stable of running backs, a deep pool of tight ends and hopefully some big plays out of the wide receivers.

Worst case scenario:

The three guys competing are all terrible and Ferentz refuses to go to the true freshman so Iowa wastes a good offensive line and running game and goes 4-8 again (or worse).

The “I must be dreaming” scenario:

CJ Beathard wins the QB competition out of fall camp and becomes the second straight redshirt freshman to the win the Heisman.  He goes on to not be a complete moron like Johnny Football.  (The only downside to this is that Gary Barta would probably give Ferentz a contract extension until 2050 with a $100 million buyout)

Offensive Line

If there is one thing you can count on from a Kirk Ferentz coached team is that the offensive line will be good.  Iowa has become an offensive lineman producing machine.  Two spots are on lockdown barring injury; a healthy Brandon Scherff at left tackle and senior Brett Van Sloten at right tackle.  New center Austin Blythe would have to fall on his face in camp to lose the center job as they have been grooming him for the position since he came to campus but that doesn’t mean there isn’t competition.  The two guard spots are still up for grabs with a number of players vying for playing time.

Two-deeps by position

Left Tackle: 

Starter: Brandon Scherff

Next in a line of left tackles at Iowa that will be heading to the NFL.  He is only a junior eligibility wise so he could stay another year and that may be wise given the likely depth at the position in next year’s draft but whether it’s the 2014 or 2015 draft, as long as he stays healthy, Scherff will be playing on Sundays.

Back-up: Andrew Donnal

Donnal is also a junior and if Scherff leaves early for the NFL he will get his shot to be one of the starting tackles in 2014.  This year he is also competing to start at guard as the competition there is wide open and he got some experience there last year before getting hurt.  Ferentz has always said the best five will play and Iowa has a history of playing future tackles inside at guard to get them experience.

Left Guard:

Starter: Conor Boffeli

Boffeli is a senior that has been a back-up all over the interior of the line throughout his career.  So far he is fighting off the challenge of Donnal and Eric Simmons and while he doesn’t have a lot of game experience he has four years of practice under his belt.  It won’t be a surprise if Boffeli is the starter against Northern Illinois but it will not be a surprise if Donnal beats him out either.

Back-up: Eric Simmons

Simmons is a former JUCO transfer from Iowa Western Community College and he redshirted last year.  He has the versatility to play guard on either side or center if necessary so he’s a nice luxury to have around.  I doubt he gets to start this year given the competition in front of him but he should see playing time.

Center:

Starter:  Austin Blythe

Blythe is a third year sophomore and during his redshirt freshman year the coaches had him practice at center and guard.  Last year Blythe started at guard and got an up close education from veteran center James Ferentz.  This year the job is his to lose and I don’t expect him to lose it.  Blythe brings size (the one thing James Ferentz lacked) and hopefully technique that he learned from all of the Ferentzs (Brian is his position coach).

Back-up: Eric Simmons

Simmons is listed as the back-up at two spots which should tell you about his versatility and he certainly could step in if Blythe stumbles.  Boffeli has also practiced at center before and provides a nice security blanket if injuries take a toll.

Right Guard:

Starter: Jordan Walsh

Walsh is the other celebrated offensive line recruit from the 2011 class (Austin Blythe being the first).  So far Walsh has taken ahold of the right guard position but the truth is that the two best players between Walsh, Simmons, Boffeli and Donnal are going to start at the two guard spots.  There is no denying Walsh’s talent level he just needs to bring the consistency and he can be very good.

Back-up: Mitch Keppy

It is a testament to the young redshirt freshman that he is listed in the two deeps given that there are some very talented and experienced players ahead of him.  Keppy is unlikely to see much playing time given that there are four other guys that can play his spot but obviously the coaches see something in him and he has a bright future.

Right Tackle:

Starter: Brett Van Sloten

Van Sloten is a bit of the unsung beast of the offensive line.  The senior doesn’t get the notice that Scherff does but he was plenty good last year.  He will get the attention of NFL scouts for sure because he is big, powerful and well trained.  Van Sloten doesn’t wow you but he plays right tackle very well and the team will do just fine running behind him.

Back-up: Ryan Ward

The redshirt freshman will only be kept off of the field because there are two extremely talented tackles ahead of him.  Andrew Donnal is listed as the back-up at left tackle but if something happens to Scherff I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ward get a crack at left tackle.  Ward is being groomed and next year he will be the starting right tackle unless Scherff goes pro and then Ward will likely compete with Donnal, the winner becomes the left tackle and loser becomes the right tackle.  Ward may not like sitting on the bench but he just has to wait his turn.

Running Back

The position that has been cursed for far too long may finally have the depth it needs to overcome injuries and departures.  The Hawkeyes stumbled into likely starter Mark Weisman last year when injuries and illness took out all the running backs and they were forced to use their fullback in the running game.  Weisman enters camp as the likely starter but he will share carries with at least two other backs that bring different skill sets to the position.  There are five legitimate players that could play running back and that does not include three true freshmen.

Mark Weisman:  The former transfer walk-on from the Air Force Academy was an emergency fill-in last season and his bull in a china shop style was the best part of the offense once he took over.  There is no secret to what Weisman does, he is a straight ahead, hit the hole and go runner.  He goes north/south and runs over anything in his way. Weisman has enough speed to make teams pay if they don’t get to him early but his power is his best asset and defensive backs do not want to take him on if he gets into the secondary.  This season Iowa has the backs to be a thunder and lightning type of backfield and Weisman is the thunder.

Damon Bullock:  Last year’s opening day starter had a great game against Northern Illinois in Chicago and was playing pretty well until he got injured.  Weisman has played well enough to take over the starting job but Bullock’s versatility is also a factor.  It may sound strange but Bullock may be too good of an offensive weapon to simply use him as a running back.  During his freshman season Bullock played receiver and he could excel as a slot receiver in this offense.  Given the play of Iowa’s receiving corps using Bullock’s skills seems like a good idea.  Bullock is a playmaker and his skills can be used to create match-up problems for defenses.  He is Iowa’s multipurpose offensive playmaker so he is only listed as a running back because multipurpose offensive weapon is not an official position on the roster.

Jordan Canzeri:  Speaking of offensive weapons Canzeri is the lightning to Weisman’s thunder in the backfield.  Canzeri is coming off a redshirt season that he took to recover from an ACL tear.  By all accounts Canzeri made a miraculous recovery and could have played last season by about midyear.  The team was not doing well and the coaches decided that burning a year of eligibility on half of a season was not worth it so Canzeri continued to sit and was able to get bigger and stronger for this season.  He came to Iowa as a pretty small back and has added a lot of good weight over the past few years.  He started in the bowl game two years ago as a freshman when Marcus Coker was suspended and he played pretty well for a kid who was about 170 pounds soaking wet.  He’s up into the 190 pound range now and he looked very good in spring practice.  He’s the smaller shiftier back and should be a nice complement to Weisman’s power game.

Barkley Hill:  A year ago at the beginning of camp it was the true freshman Hill that was making people stand up and take notice not the now departed 4-star recruit Greg Garmon.  Then the curse struck and Hill was lost to an ACL tear during last year’s open fall practice.  Hill is recovered now and while the plan may not include him seeing many carries right now he better be ready because this wouldn’t be the first time Iowa needed to go four deep at running back.

Michael Malloy:  Last year Damon Bullock had a concussion, Jordan Canzeri was rehabbing a torn ACL and Greg Garmon got hurt during the UNI game.  Up to that point then walk-on Malloy was next on the depth chart but he wasn’t dressed for the UNI game due to illness.  With those four backs unavailable the Hawkeyes turned to Mark Weisman who proceeded to run over the Panthers.  Malloy is now on scholarship but it’s going to take a lot of injuries for him to see significant time in the backfield.

The Freshmen: LeShun Daniels, Jonathan Parker and Akrum Wadley

Since it isn’t unheard of for the Hawkeyes to need more than five tailbacks in a season, I’m not kidding and I wish I was, there are three true freshmen on the roster to add even more depth.  LeShun Daniels is the new power back and 6 feet 215 pounds he is the most physically ready of the three.  Jonathan Parker and Akrum Wadley are smaller quicker backs in the 170 pound range.  These two are not the pound it between the tackles type of running backs at this stage and hopefully if they play this year it will be on special teams.

Fullback

There are only two fullbacks listed on the roster, starter Adam Cox and back-up Macon Plewa.  Kirk Ferentz has talked about how he plans to play five different tight ends this year and I’m sure in some formations Mark Weisman will line up in the fullback spot with either Canzeri or Bullock behind him.  At this point Cox is a starter in name only and I don’t expect the Hawkeyes to employ a true fullback that much.  Plewa moved over to fullback during spring practice after being a linebacker.

Wide Receiver

Junior Kevonte Martin-Manley and sophomore Tevaun Smith are listed as the starters to begin camp, seniors Jordan Cotton and Don Shumpert are listed as the back-ups along with sophomore Jacob Hillyer.  Calling this group underwhelming would be an understatement which is why the Hawkeyes went out and got a JUCO WR named Damond Powell along with five new freshmen.

Starters: Kevonte Martin-Manley and Tevaun Smith

Martin-Manley is by far the most experienced WR on the team and while he can play on the outside he does his best work in the slot.  Tevaun Smith is a more traditional outside WR at 6-2 and he did get some experience last season as a true freshman so he just needs to build on that playing time.  Smith needs to work over the top of the defense and stretch the field so Martin-Manley and Damon Bullock can work underneath but he will need help.

Back-ups: Jordan Cotton, Don Shumpert and Jacob Hillyer

Jordan Cotton showed flashes last year of becoming a solid WR but he was never able to put it all together.  Hopefully in his senior season he can break out like others senior receivers have in the past (Ramon Ochoa anyone?).  I am less than enthusiastic about seeing Don Shumpert listed in the two-deeps at WR.  After spending four years hearing about and then watching Shumpert play he is still the really fast guy who can’t catch.  If new WR coach Bobby Kennedy can cure Shumpert’s bad hands he will have more than earned his salary but I’m not optimistic.  Jacob Hillyer brings a different look at receiver as he is a bigger body without the speed of the other players, that doesn’t seem to be the direction Davis and Kennedy are going with the position.  Hillyer is going to have to prove that his skill set is valuable enough to use on the outside if he expects to see playing time.

New Blood: Damond Powell, Derrick Willies, Derrick Mitchell, AJ Jones, Andre Harris and Matt VandeBerg

Last season the Hawkeyes brought in four new WR recruits and now only one of them is left on the WR depth chart.  Cameron Wilson has left the team, Reese Fleming moved over to CB last season and Greg Mabin made the move to DB in the spring.  The staff was obviously not enthused by what they have at WR so they spent a big part of the recruiting class restocking the position.  Kirk Ferentz has always been selective when it comes to JUCO transfers and he prefers when they can enroll in January and participate in spring practice.  He made an exception for Damond Powell and not only did Powell not come in at semester he didn’t get to campus until a few days before fall camp because he was finishing his summer classes.  This should tell you something about Powell’s abilities and the team’s need for him.  Powell is the type of playmaker the Hawkeyes don’t have at WR, he is the kind of player that is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  Powell should bring the big play dimension that Jordan Cotton might have but hasn’t shown consistently and that Shumpert’s hands prevent him from bringing.  Of the five true freshmen Willies is probably the most physically ready to play.  I love Mitchell’s athleticism but he doesn’t have a lot experience at WR because he played QB in high school.  Jones, Harris and VandeBerg all need time to adjust and physically mature but the truth is that any one of these players could turn the coaches’ heads and this depth chart is written in pencil.

The “Legend”:  Riley McCarron

McCarron is a 5-9 182 pound redshirt freshman walk-on that was apparently so incredible in spring practice that he is the second coming of Wes Welker or so the internet would have you believe.  McCarron missed the open practice in the spring that I attended so I didn’t get to see him myself.  I would love for this story to play out this way but I am skeptical.  McCarron wouldn’t be the first “internet legend” to not pan out for the Hawkeyes and by all accounts McCarron does his best work in the slot.  The problem is that so does Kevonte Martin-Manley and Jordan Cotton can play there too.  Damon Bullock may see some time in the slot also so playing time there could be hard to find.  I’m not saying McCarron can’t earn playing time there considering there is very little proven talent at the WR position but the expectations need to be realistic for an undersized redshirt freshman.  Hopefully three or four years from now we are talking about Iowa’s own version of Wes Welker but let’s be patient.

Tight End

Kirk Ferentz has said in an interview on ESPN that he plans to play five tight ends this season.  I don’t believe he meant all at the same time but given the talent at WR versus the talent at TE it might not be the worst idea.  CJ Fiedorowicz should be the break out star of the Hawkeye offense if he can get some consistent QB play but that doesn’t mean he’s the only star.  Ray Hamilton, Jake Duzey, Henry Krieger-Coble and George Kittle should all get some playing time this season.

CJ Fiedorowicz:  An absolute athletic freak at 6-7 265 pounds and a match-up nightmare Fiedorowicz hasn’t dominated the way Hawkeye fans have expected.  Last year’s QB play played a big part in Fiedorowicz not living up to the hype and I expect that more consistent QB this year will help him achieve his enormous potential.  Fiedorowicz is far too big to be covered by your average safety and he is too athletic to be covered by a linebacker and the Hawkeyes have to figure out a way to exploit that advantage.

Ray Hamilton:  Hamilton is a pretty good athlete himself and he’s solid at both catching passes and blocking.  He seems to do more blocking than Fiedorowicz or Jake Duzey but that is because he’s good at it and the other two are more dynamic receivers.  He’s going to be a very good TE when he leaves this place.

Jake Duzey:  Duzey is the overgrown WR type of TE.  He’s not a great blocker but he has time to work on that skill.  He can be a very good receiver and if Ferentz wants to try that five TE package Duzey can split out wide and he’ll feel right at home.

Henry Krieger-Coble:  “The Blocking TE”.  We don’t really know if Krieger-Coble can be a good receiver simply because he’s never been asked to be one.  I have a sneaky suspicion that he’ll be fine catching the ball but as long as the first three guys are around he’ll earn his playing time being “the blocking TE” and there’s nothing wrong with that.

George Kittle:  A redshirt freshman that still needs to grow a bit but he can catch the ball and he still has time on his side.  Ferentz may want to use all five TE’s this season but realistically the fifth guy is going to find playing time hard to come by, right now Kittle should concentrate on getting bigger and stronger and finding a way to contribute on special teams.

The Freshmen:  Ike Boettger and Jon Wisnieski

I’m fairly certain a seven TE set wouldn’t be legal so these two are just going to have to wait their turn.  There has been some suggestion that Boettger could be moved to defensive end given the depth at TE but we will see on that.

Kicker: Mike Meyer

Meyer is a senior, he’s pretty good and his back-up is Marshall Koehn.  It’s the kickers what do you want from me.

Final Analysis:

Iowa’s offense and likely the team are going to go only as far as their QB takes them, whoever it is.  Whether it’s Rudock, Sokol, Beathard or Shimonek I expect the Hawkeye’s to be improved over last year’s debacle under center.  That really isn’t setting the bar very high considering Iowa had seven passing touchdowns all last season and just to give you some perspective Geno Smith threw eight touchdowns last year…against Baylor.  Better play out of the WR position will certainly help whoever is playing QB but it is also up to the coaching staff to better utilize the playmakers they know they have like Fiedorowicz and Bullock.  I’m almost always optimistic about the Hawkeyes at this time of year and this year my optimism is based on the assumption that the Hawkeyes passing offense just simply can’t be as bad this year as it was last year.  The offensive line and running game should be good and versatile so if the passing game can just be adequate the Hawkeyes will be much improved.  If I’m wrong we are all in for long 2013 season.

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

7. Jonathan Cooper   OG

45. Kevin Minter   LB

69. Tyrann Mathieu   DB

103. Alex Okafor   OLB

116. Earl Watford   OG

140. Stepfan Taylor   RB

174. Ryan Swope   WR

187. Andre Ellington   RB

219. D.C. Jefferson   TE

Immediate Impact: OG Jonathan Cooper, LB Kevin Minter

In the battle of who was the best guard Cooper got the last laugh at the draft getting picked ahead of Chance Warmack and in this case the only losers are the defensive linemen that are going to have to deal with these two for the next decade.  Cooper is an athletic guard with the versatility to play anywhere on the interior of the line the only problem for the Cardinals is that there is only one of him.  Cooper is an immediate starter at guard and a huge upgrade to their line.  Minter will make an immediate impact simply because the Cardinals need him.  Daryl Washington is suspended to start the season and Minter is likely the guy lining up inside next to newly signed Jasper Brinkley.  Minter can play and while the Cardinals will miss Washington’s leadership I don’t think their defense will suffer much.

Best Value: OLB Alex Okafor

There was a time Alex Okafor looked like he could be a late first round/early second round pick and I never agreed with that assessment but in the fourth round at #103 overall that I can get behind.  Okafor played on a Texas defense that just wasn’t as good as the individual players on it.  He’ll be making the transition from DE to OLB but he’s a natural pass rusher that uses his hands well and knows how to get to the QB.  He doesn’t have an elite first step but his pass rushing skill should show up this year as he is used as a situational pass rusher.  If he had gone in the top 50 I would have said that was too high but at #103 he’s very good value.

Sleeper: RB Stepfan Taylor (I wanted to list Watford, Taylor, Swope and Ellington)

I narrowed this down to Taylor because he’s the lesser known RB and I think he’ll surprise.  Taylor isn’t going to “wow” you, he’s not fast, he’s not big, he’s just good.  Ellington was known for speed and big plays in college, Taylor is the grinder.  He gets tough yards and he takes the ball over and over again.  The Cardinals signed Rashard Mendenhall in the offseason and they still have Ryan Williams but Mendenhall is coming off a season lost to injury and Ryan Williams is having a career lost to injury.  Ellington has the name but Taylor has the game and you can count him.

Overall Analysis:

Cooper and Minter are great picks but the Cardinals didn’t stop there.   Tyrann Mathieu is a huge gamble and I’m not sold on the idea of him being a free safety.  I think Mathieu gives them some value as a slot corner and he has dynamic return ability but this team already has Patrick Peterson so that return ability may be used very little.  Okafor was fantastic value in the fourth round and keep an eye on Earl Watford from James Madison.  Watford is a big athletic guard and he may end up teaming with Cooper for years to come on the interior of the offensive line.  Taylor is a solid pick up and could pay dividends given the injury history at RB.  Ryan Swope ran a surprisingly fast 40 time and he could be a nice addition in the slot.  Ellington dealt with a hamstring injury during his senior year and then he ran a slow 40 during workouts that likely dropped his value seeing as his game at Clemson was predicated on speed.  However, if Ellington gets healthy he will play much faster than he ever ran and he’ll be a nice weapon to have.  D. C. Jefferson didn’t do much at Rutgers but given the depth chart at TE for the Cardinals anything is possible.

San Francisco 49ers

18. Eric Reid   FS

40. Cornellius (Tank) Carradine   DE

55. Vance McDonald   TE

88. Corey Lemonier   OLB

128. Quinton Patton   WR

131. Marcus Lattimore   RB

157. Quinton Dial   DT

180. Nick Moody   OLB

237. B.J. Daniels   QB

246. Carter Bykowski   OT

252. Marcus Cooper   CB

Immediate Impact: FS Eric Reid

It’s not surprising that the defending NFC Champions weren’t looking for a bunch of new starters in the draft but they found the one they need.  The loss of Dashon Goldson left a big hole at FS and the 49ers traded up to get the one they wanted Eric Reid from LSU.  Reid has a lot of experience against top competition and he should slide in smoothly at the back end of the 49er defense.

Best Value: RB Marcus Lattimore **********

This pick doesn’t just come with one asterisk it comes with ten.  Lattimore was the best back in this draft before he suffered one of the most gruesome injuries I have ever seen.  He has made a stunning recovery and the fact that he was able to go through some drills for teams before the draft is nothing short of a miracle.  Lattimore is likely to spend this season on injured reserve because he still has some rehab to do and the 49ers shouldn’t need him.  The value here is in the future, Frank Gore can’t play forever and he’s probably coming close to end of his career.  LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are good backs but they aren’t every down grind it out type of players.  Lattimore is a fantastic talent and if he makes a complete recovery and becomes the type of back he’s capable of being it will be the best comeback story and a medical miracle all in one.

Sleepers: OLB Corey Lemonier, WR Quinton Patton

Lemonier was a good pass rusher as a DE at Auburn but his skills and his body translate very well to OLB for the 49ers.  Some scouts see Lemonier as stiff but some said the same thing about Aldon Smith, Lemonier probably won’t have the same impact Smith had as a rookie but when the 49ers go looking for some extra pass rushing help on third down this is where they will find it.  Patton may just be the right guy at the right place at the right time.  Michael Crabtree is going to miss the start of the season, Mario Manningham is coming back from an injury and AJ Jenkins didn’t do anything last year meaning the 49ers need someone to step up opposite Anquan Boldin and my money is on Patton.

Overall Analysis:

This team doesn’t have a lot of room on their roster and that’s not surprising given they won the NFC last year but they drafted a lot of talent and I’m not sure what they are going to do with it all.  Reid is a starter and Lattimore is probably going on IR.  Tank Carradine is a great eventual replacement for Justin Smith and given the fact that Smith is coming off an injury and so is Carradine maybe they can give each other enough time to heal up.  Lemonier and Patton are needed depth at OLB and WR and Vance McDonald should step into to fill the void left by Delanie Walker’s departure.  The rest of these players are going to have to fight to make this roster.  Quinton Dial is an intriguing prospect at DT and Nick Moody could bring depth to the LB corps.  The most interesting project could be BJ Daniels the QB out of South Florida.  The 49ers traded for Colt McCoy from the Browns to be the new back-up to Colin Kaepernick and McCoy’s experience should give him a leg up but Daniels presents a nice option as the third QB.  Current third QB Scott Tolzien’s skill set is not like Kaepernick’s but Daniels which could give him an advantage as a developmental prospect.

Seattle Seahawks

62. Christine Michael   RB

87. Jordan Hill   DT

123. Chris Harper   WR

137. Jesse Williams   DT

138. Tharold Simon   CB

158. Luke Willson   TE

194. Spencer Ware   RB

220. Ryan Seymour   OG

231. Ty Powell   OLB

241. Jared Smith   DT

242. Michael Bowie   OT

Immediate Impact: WR Percy Harvin

This feels like a cop-out but after looking at the list of draftees I don’t see anyone making a huge impact on a team that was as good as the Seahawks were last year.  Harvin gives them the playmaker they desperately need to take pressure off of RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Sidney Rice.  He is also the type of guy that can make Russell Wilson better because Harvin is a short to intermediate route type of player that Wilson can find and dump the ball off to when the play breaks down.  Harvin can make something out of nothing and that will be the most valuable thing for this offense.

Best Value:  DT Jesse Williams

Williams has the talent and especially the strength to be seriously considered as a first round pick and somehow the Seahawks got him in the fifth round.  He’s a space eating NT that can play as a DT in a 4-3 defense and while he won’t make a huge impact on the stat sheet he will definitely improve your run defense.  When you can pick up a talent like this in the fifth round you found the definition of value.

Sleeper: CB Tharold Simon

To say that Simon comes with character concerns is an understatement, he doesn’t have Tyrann Mathieu level concerns but he has concerns.  There are two very good reasons I can see Simon succeeding in Seattle and they are Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.  The Seahawks have found a type of CB they like and that is tall and physical and Simon could be that type of guy.  Nobody knew who Sherman and Browner were until they started dominating and it looks like Pete Carroll is sticking with what works.  This is of course all contingent on Simon staying out of jail.

Overall Analysis:

I don’t see this draft having a huge impact and other than Jesse Williams and Tharold Simon I question some of these picks.  Obviously without a 1^st rounder the impact is questionable but RB Christine Michael is a tantalizing talent that never really put it together and there were better players on the board at the end of the second round.  DT Jordan Hill was a nice player at Penn St. but he is a little undersized and while that may now work since they have Jesse Williams they didn’t know that at the time.  WR Chris Harper is going to have to fight to make the roster as the fifth WR and the last six picks have very little chance of making this roster.  Overall it’s a draft that may bring a little depth but probably not a lot of production.

St. Louis Rams

8. Tavon Austin   WR

30. Alec Ogletree   LB

71. T.J. McDonald   S

92. Stedman Bailey   WR

113. Barrett Jones   OL

149. Brandon McGee   CB

160. Zac Stacy   RB

Immediate Impact: WR Tavon Austin, LB Alec Ogletree

Austin was drafted to be the playmaker of this offense and given his natural ability that shouldn’t be a problem.  Austin’s only drawback is his size and given the rules in today’s passing game his stature shouldn’t be an impediment.  Austin will be dynamic replacing Danny Amendola in the slot but he can also split out wide and make things happen.  Ogletree is another one of those troubled talents that teams hope can put it all together and if Ogletree does he could be one of better LB’s in the NFL.  Ogletree will shift from his college position in the middle to weakside linebacker next to James Laurinaitis.  The hope from the Rams will be that Ogletree takes after Laurinaitis and Chris Long and avoids the off the field problems he’s had in the past.

Best Value: OL Barrett Jones

Jones falling to the fourth round and the 113^th pick is one of the bigger mysteries to me even if there were some health questions with him.  Jones was versatile enough to win the Outland Trophy at LT one year and the Rimington Trophy at center the next and if I were any of the three interior starters on the Rams line I’d be looking over my shoulder.  Jones could steal either guard or the center job and I won’t be the least bit surprised.  At worst Jones is the ultimate back-up because he could legitimately play all 5 line positions if needed.

Sleeper:  WR Stedman Bailey

Bailey caught 114 passes last year and scored 25 TD’s.  That’s not a misprint, 25 TD’s. Tavon Austin wasn’t the only target of Geno Smith at West Virginia last year and while it was a pass happy offense scoring 25 TD’s in a college season is not a fluke.  Bailey isn’t the biggest or the fastest receiver but he knows how to get open and he knows what to do with the ball when he gets it.  The Rams have some fairly non-descript WR’s like Brian Quick, Chris Givens and Austin Pettis on the roster and while those guys might develop this year I wouldn’t count out Bailey making some noise instead.

Overall Analysis:

It is a complete coincidence that the Rams are the last team I did in my draft analysis and they also happen to have my favorite draft overall.  I wasn’t a big Tavon Austin fan and in any other draft I would question him going eighth overall but this draft was so devoid of playmakers at the top that I understand what the Rams were doing. GM Les Snead played this draft beautifully moving up to get Austin and then moving down to recoup some of what they lost and still getting Alec Ogletree.  T. J. McDonald was a sneaky good pick and there is always a surprise rookie safety in the league that starts and plays well and McDonald can win the job in St. Louis and he has the bloodlines to succeed at the position.  I already said my peace about Bailey and Jones but I also like the last two picks.  Brandon McGee will slide in as the fourth CB on the roster and that’s a great get in the fifth round and with the departure of Steven Jackson the RB position could be wide open for Zac Stacy.  It’s unlikely Stacy will win the starting job but Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead are hardly unbeatable guys in front of him.

 

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

AFC West

Denver Broncos

28. Sylvester Williams   DT

58. Montee Ball   RB

90. Kayvon Webster   CB

146. Quanterus Smith   DE

161. Tavarres King   WR

173. Vinston Painter   OT

234. Zac Dysert   QB

Immediate Impact:  DT Sylvester Williams, RB Montee Ball

Sylvester Williams was the best DT in the draft that no one talked about.  He was rarely mentioned along with Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei or Sheldon Richardson but Williams is a player and the Broncos got a starter.  He brings more talent and a better motor than free agent signee Terence Knighton and Williams is the best DT on the roster now.  Montee Ball is simply a better option than the rest of the guys on the roster at RB.  Willis McGahee is about done, Knowshon Moreno flashed a bit last year but should you really count on him now and if Ronnie Hillman had convinced the Broncos he was their future they wouldn’t have drafted Ball in the first place.

Best Value:  RB Montee Ball

The value of the RB position in the draft has been in a dramatic fall for years and it takes a special talent like and Adrian Peterson or a Trent Richardson to get a team to take one high in the draft anymore so value is all relative.  Ball doesn’t look like much standing on the sidelines or in his Under Armour but defenses hate him.  His balance, his vision and his deceptive power make him a nightmare to defend and he has proven he is a dependable workhorse type of back.  Ball has 1200-1500 yard potential and when you can get that with the 58^th pick of the draft you just got tremendous value.

Sleeper:  DE Quanterus Smith

This 6’5 250 lb. DE out of Western Kentucky was leading the country in sacks prior to tearing his ACL and the Broncos need a pass rusher to compliment Von Miller. The Broncos are banking on a healthy Smith down the road and that may even mean this year as a pass rushing specialist but Smith has star potential down the road.  Miller will get even more attention from opponents now that Elvis Dumervil is off to Baltimore so if Smith is completely recovered from his knee injury he could step in on passing downs for Robert Ayers and face a lot of one-on-one match-ups that he can win.

Overall Analysis:

Williams and Ball are immediate starters and Smith could help out the pass rush so that’s a nice start.  CB Kayvon Webster wasn’t my first choice where the Broncos took him, there were better players like Will Davis and B.W. Webb still on the board, but he wasn’t a huge reach and he’s got some skills. WR Tavarres King is going to struggle to make this roster with so many veteran WR’s on this team and Vinston Painter may only make the roster due to a lack of depth at OT.  You have to like a QB out of Miami (OH) and if the Broncos carry three QB’s during the season my money is on Zac Dysert to be that third guy. He better soak up as much knowledge from Peyton Manning in the meeting room as he can because he isn’t going to see any live snaps unless there is a catastrophe with both Manning and Brock Osweiler.

Kansas City Chiefs

1. Eric Fisher   OT

63. Travis Kelce   TE

96. Knile Davis   RB

99. Nico Johnson   ILB

134. Sanders Commings   CB

170. Eric Kush   OG

204. Braden Wilson   FB

207. Mike Catapano   DE

Immediate Impact:  OT Eric Fisher

Obviously the #1 pick of the draft better bring an immediate impact or you have done something horribly wrong.  Amazingly I’m not sure who else can make an immediate impact because the Chiefs roster isn’t terrible.  For a team that went 2-14 last year they have surprisingly few holes.  The Jaguars had the same record and looking at their roster it was easy to see why but this team’s record really came down to bad QB play, poor coaching and some unfortunate injuries.  Fisher steps in at RT replacing Eric Winston while the rest of the line rounds into form if everyone is healthy.  Fisher is great insurance in case Branden Albert’s back acts up again but either way Fisher is the only guaranteed starter in this draft class.

Best Value:  RB Knile Davis

If you would have told me two years ago that Knile Davis would get drafted at the end of the third round of the draft I would have told you “you are crazy”.  Davis has everything you want in a back; power, speed, agility and good hands.  He also has had leg injuries piling up over the last couple of years that dropped his draft stock a lot.  I love him as a compliment to Jamaal Charles because he can do a lot of the same things and the two of them together will hopefully keep each other healthy.  Something tells me Davis will have a short career but that doesn’t mean he can’t make the most of it.

Sleeper:  LB Nico Johnson

The situation that led to Jovan Belcher taking his own life last year was horrific for his family, his victim’s family and everyone else it affected.  Unfortunately the reality for the Chiefs is it wasn’t just a personal loss to them it was a loss on the field.  Belcher had become a very solid ILB next to Derrick Johnson and now they have to look past the tragedy of that day and find a replacement on the field.  They signed Akeem Jordan from the Eagles to fill the spot but they also drafted an Alabama linebacker named Nico Johnson.  I’m not sold on Jordan and I think Nico Johnson has a chance to become the starter next to Derrick Johnson and he could excel in this defense.

Overall Analysis:

Fisher is the only guaranteed starter and Davis and Johnson will have to earn their snaps at positions the Eagles have veteran starters.  TE Travis Kelce would be a nice insurance policy given the health issues of Tony Moeaki if he was known to be more durable but he is a pass catching upgrade over Anthony Fasano.  Sanders Commings should be the fourth CB behind veterans Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson.  Eric Kush has to hope his versatility lands him a spot backing up multiple positions on the offensive line while Braden Wilson and Mike Catapano fight to make the end of the roster.

Oakland Raiders

12. DJ Hayden   CB

42. Menelik Watson   OT

66. Sio Moore   OLB

112. Tyler Wilson   QB

172. Nick Kasa   TE

181. Latavius Murray   RB

184. Mychal Rivera   TE

205. Stacy McGee   DT

209. Brice Butler   WR

233. David Bass   DE

Immediate Impact:  CB DJ Hayden, OT Menelik Watson

DJ Hayden was the apple of the Raiders’ eye leading up to the draft and they made a very nice move down the draft board and still got the guy they wanted.  Hayden will start from day one assuming he is over his abdominal problem.  Yep the Raiders top pick is spending some time in the hospital this off season due to an abdominal injury, I’m not sure it’s clear if it is related to the scary injury he suffered during practice last year that made a lot of teams back off but the Raiders took this chance.  If Hayden is healthy he is the unquestioned top CB on the roster and that says as much about the Raiders depth chart as it does about him.  Watson was a steal in the second round and he should take over at RT considering he only has to beat out Khalif Barnes for the job.  That should not be a difficult task.

Best Value:  QB Tyler Wilson

In a draft so completely devoid of a franchise QB there were a number of players that were intriguing and Tyler Wilson was one of those guys.  Wilson dealt with a horrific senior year at Arkansas after losing his boneheaded coach Bobby Petrino and dealing with an injury his lost season made many forget what they had liked about him before.  He has an NFL arm and the leadership qualities all teams look for in a QB.  Matt Flynn was brought in and is expected to be the starter and while there are people who think Terrelle Pryor will be the back-up I fully expect Wilson to not only be the back-up but to push Flynn for the starting job.  Getting a guy with this much talent in the fourth round is a steal.

Sleeper:  LB Sio Moore

Nick Roach, Kevin Burnett and Kaluka Maiava were all signed in the offseason to give the Raiders a new LB corps and Moore was drafted for depth.  Moore has the ability to play multiple LB positions but if he can find a spot where he is comfortable I think he could end up playing a lot.  Moore played at Connecticut which isn’t a football powerhouse but has put out some good players over the past few years.  Moore is not a name familiar to a lot of people but he may become familiar to Raider fans.

Overall Analysis:

Hayden was a gamble but when you are as bad as the Raiders have been at drafting you sometimes swing for the fences and hope for the homerun.  The good news was that the Raiders swung with the 12^th pick and not the third pick and actually came out of this draft with some players that can help.  Watson may never be Pro Bowl RT but he’s considerably better than what they have.  I like what Moore brings and I like the addition of Wilson because he brings competitiveness and competence to the QB position whether he’s the starter or the back-up.  Nick Kasa and Mychal Rivera come into a TE depth chart that is begging for bodies and Brice Butler has the size and speed to be an NFL receiver and that’s more than can be said for some of the players at the WR position for the Raiders.  Murray, McGee and Bass could all make this roster simply based on needing bodies and anything they contribute is a positive.

San Diego Chargers

11. DJ Fluker   OT

38. Manti Te’o   ILB

76. Keenan Allen   WR

145. Steve Williams   CB

179. Tourek Williams   DE

221. Brad Sorensen   QB

Immediate Impact: OT DJ Fluker, ILB Manti Te’o, WR Keenan Allen

The Chargers offensive line was atrocious last season and DJ Fluker becomes the starting RT immediately.  He doesn’t solve all of the line issues but he solves a very large one and immediately makes running to the right a very good play call.  Fluker has the ability to be one of the best RT’s in football.  Manti Te’o was the most talked about player during the season and especially after it and luckily for him he ended up in a place where he can succeed.  He has a very good LB lining up beside him in the middle in Donald Butler and while many people wanted to compare him to the late Junior Seau the minute he was drafted by the Chargers that isn’t a fair comparison.  Seau played in a different defense and it’s not Seau the Te’o is replacing he is replacing Takeo Spikes.  That is a much fairer comparison for Te’o and one he can live up to.  Spikes was a very good LB in the NFL for many years and that’s what Te’o will be.  Keenan Allen is the dark horse here after falling into the third round of the draft.  He may be forgotten by many but not by me because he may be the most talented WR in this draft.

Best Value:  WR Keenan Allen

Allen wasn’t having a stellar year at Cal last season (it didn’t help that his QB’s were less than impressive) and then he got hurt.  He didn’t recover in time to make an impression on scouts before the draft and they started to doubt him. That mistake will be the Chargers gain.  Allen is not a Randy Moss type of player as his game is not predicated on speed; he is a physical and powerful route running machine that can play outside or in the slot.  The best comparison in the NFL is probably Anquan Boldin and that’s a pretty good player to be compared to.  The top four WR’s for the Chargers are Malcolm Floyd, Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown and Robert Meachem.  Alexander and Brown have never stayed healthy and Meachem is hanging on to his roster spot by a thread.  Allen should be lining up opposite Floyd by week 4 unless Alexander gets hurt before that and I would expect Allen to become Phillip Rivers’ favorite target shortly after that.

Sleeper: CB Steve Williams

Williams is a little short for a starting NFL corner (5’9) and hopefully for the Chargers he doesn’t have to be a starter but I wouldn’t put it past him to be the nickel corner.  He’s fast and fluid and the Chargers depth chart at CB is a work in progress.  Nickel corners can be hard to find and while no one was in love with Williams during the draft process he could be a nice pick up in the fifth round.

Overall Analysis:

The Chargers had one of the better drafts considering they got three likely starters with their first three picks.  Fluker is a monster at RT, Te’o is going to excel in this environment in San Diego and Keenan Allen may have been the steal of the entire draft.  If Steve Williams makes any impact at CB the last two picks of this draft will be nearly irrelevant.  That’s not to say that Tourek Williams or Brad Sorensen couldn’t develop somewhere down the road but they would only be icing on the cake with this draft.

 

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

22. Desmond Trufant   CB

60. Robert Alford   CB

127. Malliciah Goodman   DE

133. Levine Toilolo   TE

153. Stansly Maponga   DE

243. Kemal Ishmael   SS

244. Zeke Motta   SS

249. Sean Renfree   QB

Immediate Impact:  CB Desmond Trufant

My co-choice for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Trufant steps into a huge void on a team expected to compete for a Super Bowl berth.  Trufant was the best man-to-man cover corner in this draft and the expectation is for him to take over starting opposite Asante Samuel. Trufant has the skills and the bloodlines to succeed and excel in the NFL.  I have every expectation that he will be the best CB from this draft and one of the best in the league within the next few years.

Best Value:  QB Sean Renfree

It may seem strange to bring up a QB on a team with Matt Ryan as a starter but the depth chart beyond Ryan is wide open.  Renfree suffered an injury in his bowl game that may have turned some teams off but he studied under David Cutcliffe at Duke and he has the size and the arm to play in the NFL.  I’m certainly not expecting him to compete with Ryan but he could become his back-up and a future trade chip for the Falcons and that’s pretty good for a late 7^th round pick.

Sleeper:  CB Robert Alford

Alford isn’t expected to start but he will play a very important role as the third corner given that the Falcons lost both Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes in the off season.  Alford is a small school prospect with a lot of potential and gives the Falcons a future replacement for Samuel.  He was a very good prospect to get at #60 overall and while that may seem high for a sleeper Alford wasn’t all that well known outside of the scouting world so his emergence will surprise some.

Overall Analysis:

Trufant and Alford address a huge need for this team and will play a large role in the defense.  Malliciah Goodman is a better physical specimen than he is a football player but there is a lot of potential there and he could bring some much needed pass rush.  Levine Toilolo played with some excellent TE’s at Stanford over the past couple of seasons and now he gets to learn from the best ever.  If Toilolo can pick up some pointers from Tony Gonzalez he has a chance to become a nice complementary piece.  Ishmael and Motta bring some depth to the safety position and maybe some help on coverage teams which isn’t bad toward the end of the draft.  My only problem with this draft is they didn’t grab any offensive lineman.  The loss of Tyson Clabo is not exactly debilitating but entrusting the RT position to Lamar Holmes without any competition for him is questionable.  Perhaps the Falcons will chase one of the veterans still left on the market before training camp or they may wait to see how Holmes performs during training camp to make a decision but the decision not to draft any offensive linemen is curious.

Carolina Panthers

14. Star Lotulelei   DT

44. Kawann Short   DT

108. Edmond Kugbila   OG

148. AJ Klein   LB

182. Kenjon Barner   RB

Immediate Impact:  DT Star Lotulelei

Star Lotulelei was the best defensive lineman in the draft and DT was the biggest position of need for the Panthers so this one was easy.  Lotulelei was going to make an impact for whatever team drafted him but on the Panthers he immediately becomes a vital part of their defense.  His presence will make DE’s Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy better and he gives MLB Luke Kuechly a big man in the middle to keep blockers away.  When one player comes in and improves the productivity of the three best players on your defense, that’s an immediate impact.

Best Value:  RB Kenjon Barner

Barner may seem like an odd choice given his size and the fact that the Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart at RB but Barner is a different type of back.  Williams and Stewart are strong physical backs that can handle a workload that Barner can’t but in the new NFL where playmakers come in all shapes and sizes Barner could carve out a niche for himself.  Barner has speed to burn and he can take it to house any time he touches it and that is a trait that Williams and Stewart don’t seem to have anymore.  In a league where matchups and mismatches have turned the game into a chess match having a piece like Barner makes your offense that much harder to prepare for.

Sleeper:  LB AJ Klein

Klein played MLB at Iowa St. and he has absolutely no chance to play MLB for the Panthers unless something befalls reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kuechly and that seems unlikely.  What is likely is an opening at either of the other two LB spots.  Thomas Davis and Jon Beason are listed as the starters at OLB and the likelihood of either of those two making through a season unscathed is virtually nil.  The depth chart at LB is anything but imposing meaning Klein is likely to be counted on at some point during the season.  Klein isn’t the biggest or fastest linebacker out there but he knows how to tackle and he should be versatile enough to play when he is inevitably called upon.

Overall Analysis:

All five players are likely to make this team without a much problem but Lotulelei is the only likely immediate starter.  Kawann Short impresses at times but it’s those times he didn’t that worry people.  Short has 1^st round physical talent but his consistency and motor dropped him a round.  He will begin the season backing up veteran Dwan Edwards but the Panthers hope he will eventually start next to Lotulelei and whether that happens this year or in the future is up to Short.  Edmond Kugbila is a small school OG that the Panthers took in the fourth round and he was a bit of reach.  There were better prospects like David Bakhtiari (who was the next pick) that could have helped out at RT, a spot where the Panthers could use a hand.  Overall I think they Panthers got some players with their five picks that can help them now and in the future.

New Orleans Saints

15. Kenny Vaccaro   FS

75. Terron Armstead   OT

82. John Jenkins   NT

144. Kenny Stills   WR

183. Rufus Johnson   OLB

Immediate Impact:  FS Kenny Vaccaro

Vaccaro is coming in to a team that needs help in the secondary and he can be the last line of defense.  He has taken some heat for how bad Texas’ defense was last year but it wasn’t his fault.  Vaccaro should take the starting FS spot away from Malcolm Jenkins and he can be a top level safety in the NFL.

Best Value:  NT John Jenkins

The Saints have every intention of staring Akiem Hicks at NT in their new Rob Ryan run 3-4 defense but Hicks has the ability to slide outside to the DE spot in the three man front.  Jenkins dropped in the draft due to some question about his work ethic and his limited abilities and while he may be a bit of a one-trick pony he does that one trick very well.  Jenkins is a behemoth that was born to be a nose tackle in a 3-4 defense and Rob Ryan knows the value of that.  With Hicks around Jenkins won’t get a lot of notice but opponents will realize how hard it is to run on the Saints when they line up Jenkins and Hicks as two thirds of their defensive line.

Sleeper:  OT Terron Armstead

The small school prospect out of Arkansas Pine-Bluff that wowed everyone at the combine by running the 40 like he was running back has a chance to play for the Saints.  After wisely letting Jermon Bushrod cash in elsewhere the Saints are looking at Charles Brown as their new LT.  The Saints have had a habit of taking unknown linemen and turning them into legitimate starters (you probably still have no idea who Jermon Bushrod is).  Brown has been patiently waiting for his chance but I think Armstead has a shot to unseat him.  Armstead has great athleticism and while the transition from small school to the NFL is tough the Saints have pulled it off with guys like Bushrod and Jahri Evans before.

Overall Analysis:

Another small class that I really like because Vaccaro, Armstead and Jenkins have a chance to contribute right away.  I like Kenny Stills where they got him because he has enough talent to gamble on and gambling with a fifth round pick on a guy with that much talent is a good move for a good team.  I have to admit I don’t have the slightest idea who Rufus Johnson is or where Tarleton State is but the Saints are taking a shot on an athlete they think they can turn into an OLB for their defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

43. Jonathan Banks   CB

73. Mike Glennon   QB

100. Akeem Spence   DT

126. William Gholston   DE

147. Steven Means   DE

189.  Mike James   RB

Immediate Impact:  CB Jonathan Banks

Banks will be heard from either as a starter or a third CB and that could happen a number of different ways.  If Darrelle Revis isn’t ready at the start of the season then Banks will start opposite Eric Wright and if Revis is ready then Banks will challenge Wright for a starting spot and I wouldn’t bet against him.  Even if he doesn’t start Banks gives the Bucs someone they can bring in as the third CB and he can play the outside while Revis slides inside to cover the slot receiver.  Banks will play a lot and I think he starts more games than he doesn’t.

Best Value: DT Akeem Spence

There is a job opening next to Gerald McCoy at DT and Spence might be the surprise winner of that job.  Spence is a tad short but he’s a beast inside and next to McCoy he could really do some damage.  None of the other DT’s on the Bucs roster have distinguished themselves so Spence has a good chance to show what he can do and the fact that he was available in the fourth round is astounding.

Sleeper:  DE William Gholston

The physical ability is all there and Gholston looks imposing getting off the bus but unfortunately he has never translated that to the field consistently.  If Gholston can learn some technique and apply it on the field he could be a devastating player at DE.  There is no guarantee the Da’Quan Bowers will stay healthy and Adrian Clayborn is coming off an injury so there is a need for some depth at DE.

Overall Analysis:

Another small draft class in this division but that doesn’t mean they won’t make a difference.  Banks and Spence will make a difference whether they start or not and Gholston is oozing with potential.  The drafting of QB Mike Glennon was interesting as the Buccaneers brought in competition for Josh Freeman going into a contract year, while it is unlikely Glennon would steal the starting job from Freeman it certainly puts Freeman on notice.  DE Steven Means is unlikely to make an impact but RB Mike James could possibly contribute in the backfield now that LaGarrette Blount has been shipped out and Doug Martin may need a breather from time to time.

 

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

AFC South

Houston Texans

27. DeAndre Hopkins   WR

57. DJ Swearinger   FS

89. Brennan Williams   OT

95. Sam Montgomery   OLB

124. Trevardo Williams   OLB

176. David Quessenberry   OT

195. Alan Bonner   WR

198. Chris Jones   DT

201. Ryan Griffin   QB

Immediate Impact:  WR DeAndre Hopkins

The Texans desperately need help at WR as Andre Johnson is the only sure thing they have at the position.  Kevin Walter was cut and DeVier Posey was injured during the playoffs and isn’t likely to be back soon enough to be a major contributor meaning Hopkins steps in as the likely starter opposite Johnson.  There were WR’s on the board that I liked better but Hopkins was in the group of guys slated to go late 1^st to early 2^nd round so he was a solid pick.  Hopkins can be a great compliment to Johnson I’m just not sure his ceiling is high enough to eventually replace Johnson as the top guy.  Solid choice for a team with a glaring need that is looking to get farther in the playoffs.

Best Value:  OLB Sam Montgomery

Montgomery played DE at LSU but he projects best as a pass rushing OLB in the Texans 3-4 and that is good fit for him if they try to play him at DE in their 3-4 it’s a bad fit.  Getting him late in the 3^rd round was great value considering this team needs someone to replace Connor Barwin in their OLB rotation.  Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus project as the starters but it’s always a good idea to have a third pass rusher and Montgomery can be that guy.

Sleeper:  OT Brennan Williams

To say that the RT spot on the Texans offensive line is underwhelming would be a huge understatement.  Derek Newton and Ryan Harris aren’t keeping DE’s up at night trying to figure out how to beat them.  Williams has his question marks (injured shoulder) and it may take some time but I won’t be the least bit surprised when he takes over the starting job at RT.  Williams has all the physical tools to be a starting RT, he may never be a Pro Bowl level guy but his talent will eventually land him in the starting lineup.

Overall Analysis:

This is a solid draft that will produce a few starters and a couple of key reserves for a team fighting for a Super Bowl berth.  Hopkins is a starter right away, Williams could steal the RT job at any point and Montgomery should make a solid situational pass rusher early.  FS DJ Swearinger is an excellent pick up for a team that is counting on Ed Reed at FS.  Reed is an all-time great at the position but he’s coming to the end of his Hall of Fame career and he’s battling injuries.  Swearinger is a kid that can learn from Reed and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up playing more snaps than Reed.  Reed may be the starter but Swearinger should bring the attitude this team has lacked for a long time in its secondary.  OLB Trevardo Williams, OT David Quessenberry and 6^th round QB Ryan Griffin could all be nice developmental players for down the road but it will be tough for nine draft picks to all make the roster of a playoff team.  The only issue I have with this draft was not taking an ILB to get some depth behind Brian Cushing and Darryl Sharpton as both players have been known to miss time.

Indianapolis Colts

24. Bjoern Werner   OLB

86. Hugh Thornton   OG

121. Khaled Holmes   C

139. Montori Hughes   DT

192. John Boyett   FS

230. Kerwynn Williams   RB

254. Justice Cunningham   TE

Immediate Impact:  Last year’s draft class

I’m taking a pass here because I’m not sure anyone in this class is going to come in and make an immediate impact on this team.  Top pick Werner is going to spend most of the year learning how to be an OLB in a 3-4 and I don’t think it’s going to be a quick transition.  As a pass rusher he can be effective on passing downs but he’s going to struggle doing some of the other things LB’s need to do.  Last year’s class brought a lot of impact especially on the offensive side of the ball; QB Andrew Luck, WR TY Hilton, RB Vick Ballard, TE Dwayne Allen and TE Coby Fleener will all be vital parts of the offense this year.

Best Value:  C Khaled Holmes

The Colts drafted players pretty much where they were expected to go so I am going with Holmes because they got him in the fourth round and he could potentially be a starter.  Holmes will have to beat out Samson Satele who is returning from an injury but the Colts shipped out back-up center A.Q. Shipley to Baltimore so they must have some confidence that Holmes can step in if Satele doesn’t hold up.  Holmes isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism but he’s a technician at center and he could beat out Satele straight up.

Sleeper:  DT Montori Hughes

The Colts have Aubrayo Franklin at nose tackle in their 3-4 defense and Hughes was just a fifth round selection but Franklin is on the downside of his career and as they say “you can’t teach size”.  Hughes is a load at 6’4 329 lbs. and he is built to play NT.  In order for the Colts defense to work they need a steady presence in the middle and while Hughes may never be a big playmaker that isn’t what is asked of a NT.  If Hughes can stay out of trouble and learn the tricks of the trade from the veteran Franklin he could become a mainstay of the Colts defense down the road.

Overall Analysis:

Last year’s draft class set the bar pretty high for GM Ryan Grigson and it’s is highly unlikely that this class could ever live up to that lofty standard.  Werner has a chance to be a good player although I question his fit in this defense.  Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes will provide competition and possibly production that is sorely needed on the interior of the offensive line.  The rest of the class brings potential down the line and hopefully depth to a team that surprisingly made the playoffs last year.  It’s tough to be critical of Grigson after pulling off such a quick turnaround but this draft will largely be judged on what Werner becomes whether that is fair or not.  I really liked Werner as a 4-3 DE but I’m skeptical of his transition to OLB and I think it might limit his ceiling.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2. Luke Joeckel   OT

33. Jonathan Cyprien   SS

64. Dwayne Gratz   CB

101. Ace Sanders   WR

135. Denard Robinson   RB/WR

169. Josh Evans   FS

208. Jeremy Harris   CB

210. Demetrius McCray   CB

Immediate Impact:  OT Luke Joeckel, SS Jonathan Cyprien, CB Dwayne Gratz

The Jaguars were 2-14 for a reason last year and that reason was the lack of talent on the roster.  The offseason left a number of holes to be filled and the Jaguars took as close to a sure thing in any draft as they could in new starting RT Luke Joeckel.  Joeckel won’t have to fend of anyone for the starting spot and he gives the Jaguars cover next offseason if they decide LT Eugene Monroe isn’t worth the expense.  Cyprien and Gratz walk into the same scenario in the secondary as their absolutely no competition for Cyprien at SS and Gratz becomes the top CB by default.  By the way, Gratz is a number one corner in name only.

Best Value:  CB Dwayne Gratz

The Jaguars found their new number one CB in the third round of the draft so I guess that is value but it’s a fake value.  Gratz is the top corner by default because the Jaguars have no one else on the roster that can even fake it.  I would like Gratz a whole lot more if he was lining up opposite a true number one with a good slot corner covering the inside.  Gus Bradley’s defense is a work in progress and it probably won’t be pretty this year as they need more help in the secondary and rushing the passer.

Sleeper:  WR Ace Sanders

Given the fact that Justin Blackmon is facing a four game suspension to start the year the Jaguars are going to need playmakers to step up and help Blaine Gabbert and I have little faith the newly signed WR Mohamed Massaquoi is the answer.  Massaquoi will likely start opposite Cecil Shorts but his value there is that he allows Ace Sanders to operate in the slot where he can be an effective weapon.  Sanders is built to be a slot receiver, he’s undersized and shifty and Gabbert needs to remember back to his days at Missouri and get the ball out of his hands quickly to guys like Sanders who can actually do something with it.

Overall Analysis: 

Joeckel, Cyprien and Gratz are all unquestioned starters while Sanders gives them a potential playmaker at slot receiver and returner.  They are taking a shot with Denard Robinson, a man without a position, and hoping he’ll find a way to make plays for them.  They didn’t take him until the fifth round so it’s a worthwhile gamble.  The fact that they drafted a FS and two more CB’s with their last three picks should tell you how they feel about their secondary.  The fact that all five defensive backs they drafted will not only make the roster but Jeremy Harris could start opposite Gratz should tell you just how dire the reality of the situation is.  This team is primed for a last minute veteran addition to the secondary but they covered themselves if they don’t sign anyone.  Like I said their defense will not be pretty.

Tennessee Titans

10. Chance Warmack   OG

34. Justin Hunter   WR

70. Blidi Wreh-Wilson   CB

97. Zaviar Gooden   OLB

107. Brian Schwenke   C

142. Lavar Edwards   DE

202.  Kahlid Wooten   CB

248.   Daimion Stafford   FS

Immediate Impact:  OG Chance Warmack

Interior offensive linemen rarely make an impact that the casual fan will observe but this could be the exception since I think many will observe the impact the addition of Warmack (along with free agent Andy Levitre) will have on RB Chris Johnson.  We all know Johnson has loads of talent and now he will have no more excuses for his ineffectiveness.  Warmack might be a once in a generation guard and if the Titans can get some decent center play to go with elite guards Levitre and Warmack and solid tackles Michael Roos and Dave Stewart then the running game should be able to carry the load.

Best Value:  C Brian Schwenke

This is the reason I disagreed with the Cowboys taking Travis Frederick in the first round of the draft.  Yes Frederick is going to be a starter but if they had drafted Schwenke in the third round they would have gotten a starting center in the third round which is pretty good value.  They Titans got lucky getting a tough guy like Schwenke in the fourth round and their starting center Fernando Velasco is definitely beatable.  At the very least he brings competition for the starting center spot and a very good back-up at guard.

Sleeper:  I want to say Schwenke but I won’t.  CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson

I’ll go with the guy with the funny name.  Wreh-Wilson is a tall corner that teams really like given the explosion of big WR’s in the NFL.  Wreh-Wilson doesn’t bring the physicality you would like out of a big corner and he’s a little stiff in the hips but the Titans don’t have much beyond Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner.

Overall Analysis:

I love Warmack and Schwenke they can be the anchors of the offensive line for the next ten years.  I like Wreh-Wilson especially where they got him, the third round.  LB Zaviar Gooden is an excellent athlete who needs some work but he can play in the NFL and could make a very good special team’s guy.  I think Justin Hunter is an exceptional talent but I question this team taking him.  They already have a supremely talented WR that they can’t count on because of off the field issues, Kenny Britt.  It would be nice if Hunter can give them a nice replacement incase Britt becomes more trouble than he’s worth but Hunter has had his issues too.  There seemed to be a theme with Tennessee Volunteers (and former Volunteers) in the draft this year.  Corderrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Da’Rick Rogers and Tyler Bray all had character questions going into the draft and it cost them all, Patterson less than the rest.  The last three picks (Edwards, Wooten and Stafford) could all stick on the roster at spots that need depth so they have that going for them.