2013 NFL Overview     My Predictions

NFC Playoffs

Division Winners

Washington

Green Bay

Atlanta

San Francisco

Wild Card Teams

Seattle

New Orleans

NFC Championship Game

Atlanta over San Francisco

AFC Playoffs

Division Winners

New England

Cincinnati

Houston

Denver

Wild Card Teams

Indianapolis

Baltimore

AFC Championship Game

Houston over Denver

Super Bowl Prediction

Houston over Atlanta

 

 

Individual Player Awards

MVP : (There is about a 98% chance this goes to a QB or a RB)

Contenders: RB Adrian Peterson, QB Peyton Manning, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady

My Dark Horse Candidate:  QB Matt Ryan

Adrian Peterson is the reigning league MVP and after rushing for over 2000 yards last year he was certainly deserving but that is a tough feat to accomplish and even tougher to repeat.  Peterson will almost assuredly rush for over 1800 yards but I think he misses the 2000 yard mark and the Vikings have a disappointing year taking him out of the MVP race.  Drew Brees has his coach back and it’s completely possible he throws for over 5000 yards this year with the offense the Saints have.  Unfortunately we have come to expect this kind of greatness out of Brees and unless his team goes 15-1 or 14-2 his phenomenal numbers get lost in the shuffle.  Tom Brady is certainly as valuable to his team as anyone in the league and he is a guy that makes the players around him better and he will do that this year.  However, I think the Patriots are going to lean a little heavier on Stevan Ridley and Brady’s numbers just aren’t going to be at the same level as Brees, Rodgers and Manning.  I think Matt Ryan is about to break out and join the ranks of the best QB’s in the league.  He has all kinds of weapons on his side and the addition of Steven Jackson is going to be bigger than people realize.  Ryan is calm, cool and collected and he is going to lead his team to the top of the NFC this year.  He doesn’t had the credibility like the Rodgers, Manning, Brady and Brees have just yet so he probably won’t win the award this year but he could.  Aaron Rodgers is a machine and he just keeps churning out 4000 yard seasons and winning games week after week.  He may be a victim of his own success as he has set the bar so high for himself or it could be that Peyton Manning is just going to have that good of a year.

My pick: QB Peyton Manning    Denver Broncos

Manning was fantastic last season coming off sitting out a year and rehabbing an injury.  No one knew if the Peyton of old was still around or not and he proved he is.  This year he is even stronger coming off his neck issues and he has Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and now Wes Welker to throw to.  None of the Denver TE’s played particularly well last year and none have distinguished themselves this pre-season but it doesn’t matter because John Elway went out and added the best slot receiver in the league.  Welker probably isn’t going to catch 120 passes like he would in New England but that is more a byproduct of Thomas and Decker being so good and Manning being able to spread it around.  Manning is going to guide his team through the first six games of the year while they are missing Von Miller and then when he gets back the Broncos are going to be frighteningly good.  The All-World QB of the best team of the regular season is a pretty safe bet to win the MVP.  *If Adrian Peterson rushes for 2500 yards all bets are off.  

Offensive Player of the Year

Contenders: The same 6 guys I just listed for MVP are a pretty good bet to put up ridiculous offensive numbers.  Also throw in; QB Robert Griffin III, QB Michael Vick, WR Calvin Johnson

My Dark Horse Candidate: RB Doug Martin

If any of the QB’s; Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning or Ryan throw for 5000 yards they are going to be right in the conversation but if they don’t cross that threshold they will all be victims of their past success (except for Ryan) and they won’t win this award.  RGIII and Michael Vick both have the potential to put up big passing and rushing numbers if they could stay on the field for 16 games but that seems unlikely.  Calvin Johnson is the only WR in the league that can dominate so much that he puts himself in this conversation and if he gets 2000 yards receiving (he had 1964 last year) he’s got a chance.  The only thing holding him back last year was his 5 whole TD’s, that won’t get it done.  Doug Martin might prove to be the best two-way RB in the league this year and 2500 yards from scrimmage is well within his reach.  Tampa Bay has to have a good year to get Martin on people’s radar but he might put up video game like numbers and get some notice himself.

My Pick: RB Adrian Peterson   Minnesota Vikings

If Peterson is healthy he is a shoe-in for 1800 rushing yards and has a legitimate shot at 2000 but unlike last year he’s team may pull him down in the MVP voting.  Last season the Vikings weren’t expected to be very good and they finished 10-6 and Peterson got a lot of credit for that and won the MVP.  The MVP usually goes to an offensive player and many times the Offensive Player of the Year Award (which isn’t talked about much) is given to a player who put up great numbers on a team with a not so great record.  I think the Vikings are going to disappoint this year and if Peterson goes for 2000 yards and the Vikings go 6-10 he’s almost guaranteed to get Offensive Player of the Year and not MVP.

Defensive Player of the Year

There is no telling who will pop up when it comes to this award.  JJ Watt is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year but this is a tough one to repeat and going into last season I don’t think anybody had Watt in the top ten contenders so I won’t try to make a list.

I had every intention of choosing LB Von Miller of the Broncos for this award and then he went and got suspended for the first six games of the season.  He’s a great player but he’s going to have to have an unbelievable 10 games if he’s going to pull this off and I’m not counting on it.  Guys with lots of sacks or lots of interceptions tend to get the most notice so DE’s, OLB’s and CB’s are probably the best bet which is why I liked Miller.  CB Richard Sherman from the Seahawks likes to claim he’s the best corner in the league and he might just be but I don’t think he’ll win it.  Geno Atkins from the Bengals is one of the best DT’s in the league but DT’s don’t get a lot of notice but if he were to have a JJ Watt type of impact he could come out of nowhere.  Watt won it playing DE in a 3-4 defense which is unusual because it’s not usually a high sack number position but he made it one and if he could repeat last year he could pull it off again but it’s unlikely.  I love MLB’s Patrick Willis from San Francisco and Brian Cushing from Houston but they may get outshined by teammates that put up big stats.  DE Cameron Wake from Miami should put up a huge sack total this year as he is usually near the top of the leader board and this year he has rookie DE Dion Jordan taking some of the pressure off of him.  The Dolphins would have to have a pretty good season for Wake to get the credit he deserves and I don’t see them being great.

My Pick:  OLB Aldon Smith    San Francisco 49ers

The league’s best defense resides in San Francisco and while Patrick Willis and Justin Smith are the heart and soul of that defense it’s Aldon Smith that is going to put up the numbers.  Smith is an excellent pass rusher and he could lead the league in that category at any time.  He’s become a much better overall LB and while the 49ers have a number of great players (Willis, Justin Smith and Navorro Bowman) it’s Aldon Smith that will get the most recognition.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: RB Eddie Lacy, RB LeVeon Bell, RB Giovani Bernard, QB EJ Manuel, WR Tavon Austin, WR DeAndre Hopkins

My Dark Horse Candidates:  WR Keenan Allen and WR Kenbrell Thompkins

The injury to DuJuan Harris gives Eddie Lacy a huge opportunity and the injury to LeVeon Bell may cost him his best opportunity.  Lacy becomes the top back in Green Bay by default with Harris being put on IR.  Bell looked like the top back in Pittsburgh until a foot injury sidelined him, luckily for Bell and the Steelers the injury doesn’t look as bad as initially thought but it means he may have to play catch up entering the season.  EJ Manuel and Geno Smith look like the only rookie starting QB’s and with the Jets offense I don’t see Smith being a factor in the ROY race.  Manuel is coming back from an injury but it looks like he’ll be okay and the Bills offense has enough weapons to help Manuel put up points but he may unfairly be measured against last year’s rookie QB class and he won’t measure up.  WR Tavon Austin can be a playmaker but Chris Givens has stepped up to be Sam Bradford’s top target meaning Austin probably won’t put up the consistent numbers needed to be a player in the ROY race.  WR DeAndre Hopkins is going to be the compliment to Andre Johnson and in the Texans’ offense that should mean plenty of opportunities and Hopkins has looked great in the preseason.  My first dark horse is WR Keenan Allen of the San Diego Chargers.  The Chargers do not look good but some key injuries and the axing of Robert Meachem means there will be ample opportunities for Allen to step up at WR.  Allen has a ton of talent and he could shine because Phillip Rivers is going to have to throw to somebody.  The other dark horse is undrafted gem WR Kenbrell Thompkins and if he wins this award he has to give it Tom Brady.

My Pick:  RB Giovani Bernard   Cincinnati Bengals

I have been talking about Bernard since before the draft when he wasn’t even on a team.  Now he’s on a team where he only has to beat out BenJarvus Green-Ellis for carries and while the Bengals will still use Green-Ellis because he is reliable Bernard is the playmaker the Bengals need.  Bernard’s size and skill set reminds me of Ray Rice and he can be that good.  The Bengals are looking for someone to give their offense a spark and take some pressure off of Andy Dalton and AJ Green and they found it in the best back in the draft.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders:   LB Jarvis Jones, LB Alec Ogletree, DT Star Lotulelei, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DE Dion Jordan, CB Dee Milliner, S Kenny Vaccaro, CB Desmond Trufant

My Dark Horse Pick: LB Sio Moore

Jarvis Jones would be the runaway winner of this award if he stays completely healthy all season but he couldn’t even stay healthy through the preseason and is still battling Jason Worilds at OLB so I’m not picking him.  DT Star Lotulelei is a devastating talent but he plays for the Panthers and their defense is likely to be bad and that makes it hard for a DT to stand out.  DE’s Ezekiel Ansah and Dion Jordan are both in situations that could lead to nice sack numbers for each of them.  Ansah is playing on a defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly and Jordan will be the pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake meaning both will be facing a lot of one-on-one blocking.  CB Dee Milliner is a starter for the Jets and teams will likely target him instead of Antonio Cromartie meaning he could make plays that will get him noticed.  S Kenny Vaccaro is a player the Saints need to make a difference and if he does he will be a ROY candidate for sure.  LB Sio Moore could be the one bright spot on an otherwise underwhelming Raiders defense.  Moore was a third round draft pick and he could be a big playmaker on a defense that won’t have many of them.  If Ogletree can keep his character concerns from derailing his immense talent then he might just be the best rookie defender in the league this year.  So far in the preseason he has shown why everyone was in love with his talent now he just has to prove the Rams were right to have faith in him.

My Pick:  CB Desmond Trufant   Atlanta Falcons

Trufant didn’t have the hype of Dee Milliner or the size of Xavier Rhodes but he is the best cover corner from this draft and he is starting for a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons lost Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson in the offseason so Trufant steps in opposite Asante Samuel and he is going to go up against some very good QB’s this season.  Luckily he has to practice every day against Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones meaning some Sundays are going to be a welcome break for him.  Usually CB’s have to put up big interception numbers to win individual awards but playing for such a high profile team will help Trufant get noticed even if teams avoid throwing his way.

 

Bold and Not-So-Bold Predictions for the 2013 Season (and some random thoughts)

–          Despite the fact that no RBs were taken in the first round of the 2013 Draft that doesn’t mean rookie RBs won’t play a huge part for many teams.  Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball and LeVeon Bell will all be playing for playoff or near playoff teams.  Christine Michael (Seahawks), Knile Davis (Kansas City) and Zac Stacy (St. Louis) will all be important backups but there are two other tailbacks that could be very important.  Joseph Randle and Stepfan Taylor could prove to be major players if injuries strike DeMarco Murray and Rashard Mendenhall again.  Dallas and Arizona made two solid picks late in the draft that could pay huge dividends.

–          Jacksonville, Oakland, NY Jets, Buffalo and San Diego will be the five worst teams in the NFL this season.  Yes there is a decided AFC slant here and truthfully the only NFC team I can see challenging these five is Carolina with Philadelphia being a possibility given their terrible defense.  If Michael Vick gets hurt or isn’t as good as he’s looked in preseason then Philly’s defense could be spend too much time on the field and be epically bad.

–          The NFC is the tougher conference top to bottom and a team with a 10-6 record will miss the playoffs in that conference.  In the AFC there is a decided split between the great, the not so good and the really bad.  New England, Denver, Cincinnati and Houston should dominate the conference while Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Miami, Tennessee and a surprising Cleveland will battle for the wild card spots.  The other five are all playing for Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgewater.

–          Rex Ryan won’t make it through the season as head coach of the New York Jets (like I said some of these are not-so-bold predictions).  The Jets are so desperate they are grabbing almost every castoff QB they can, first it was Graham Harrell and now it’s Brady Quinn.  Mark Sanchez is hurt and he may be put on IR and miss the season, lucky him.  Geno Smith isn’t ready to be a starter but the Jets have no choice but to start him.  Matt Simms has actually looked better but he hasn’t faced a NFL first team defense yet either.  Marty Mornhinweg is on board as the offensive coordinator and will be the future interim head coach for the franchise.  Complete coaching staff overhaul to follow after the season.

–          Danny Amendola will play in all 16 games and lead the league in receptions.  Okay this is part prediction and part prayer.  The Patriots need Amendola’s considerable talent to stay on the field and replace Wes Welker’s production.  Amendola has only scratched the surface of what he can be and he will be fun to watch playing with Brady.

–          Carson Palmer will have a great year throwing the football.  Arizona will be improved as Bruce Arians downfield passing attack will make Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts shine.  Unfortunately for the Cardinals their division is murder’s row and their record won’t be great but Cardinal fans will enjoy the aerial show.  It won’t quite reach Kurt Warner territory but the nightmare of Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer will just be a bad memory.

–          The Bengals make a run to the top of their division and Marvin Lewis wins Coach of the Year.  I didn’t give this award a full breakdown because Coach of the Year is such a strange category. It usually goes to the guy who does the most with the least expectations.  Rarely does the best coach win it just a guy who does a good job coaching up his team.  Marvin Lewis gets the recognition but Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons also deserves some credit.

–          Big money free agent WR Mike Wallace will be a disappointment in Miami as he isn’t quite the deep threat the Dolphins hope he will be.  That coupled with the loss of TE Dustin Keller to an injury and RB Reggie Bush to free agency means a lot of pressure falls on Ryan Tannehill and new RB Lamar Miller.  The defense keeps the Dolphins in games and Tannehill plays fine but the offensive keeps them out of the playoffs.

–          RGIII plays in all 16 games this season…wait I said bold predictions not idiotic ones…never mind.

–          Andrew Luck finishes the season with the third most passing yards on the year.  Only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees finish ahead of him.  Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Darrius Heyward-Bey give Luck three good WRs along with Dwayne Allen (once he’s healthy) and Coby Fleener at TE to make the Colts passing attack seriously good.  That along with the fact that Ahmad Bradshaw will be done for the year in about week 5 leaving them with no running game meaning Luck’s numbers could be ridiculous.

–          Jerry Jones fires Jason Garrett half way through the season and names himself head coach…Roger Goodell doesn’t find it funny either and says “Sorry Jerry you can’t do that”,  but Cowboys fans are even less amused when Bill Callahan is actually named interim head coach.  (You’ll have to figure out for yourself if I’m kidding about this.)

–          The Raiders apparently decided not to try to break the record for holding penalties in a season so they cut Alex Barron, from starter to free agent in less than a week.  Even the Raiders knew it was too obvious of a tank job to let Barron protect the QB’s blind side.  Oh and their life insurance rates on their QBs would have been astronomical.  Instead they are starting a guy who has only played football for a few years and had never played LT until the last preseason game.  I guess Terrelle Pryor’s punishment for everything that happened at Ohio St. will finally be served.

–          I will win both of the Fantasy Football leagues I’m in.  That’s not really a bold prediction more of an inevitable fact.

 

 

 

 

 

2013 NFL Preview   AFC

AFC East

Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms, EJ Manuel, Kevin Kolb (sort of), Jeff Tuel and Matt Leinart; these are the 11 reasons why I’m sure the Patriots will win this division.  These are all of the QB’s on the rosters of the other three teams in the division.  Tom Brady is so far ahead of these guys I don’t care if the Patriots dust off Troy Brown at WR I’m not betting against Brady in this division.  The truth is that not only do the Patriots have the best QB in the division they have the 3^rd best QB in the division.  Seriously, other than Ryan Tannehill, do you think there is a single QB on that list that the Patriots would trade Ryan Mallett straight up for?  If the Jets called Bill Belichick tomorrow and offered Geno Smith straight up for Mallett Belichick would laugh and hang up.

*Last minute edit: the Jets signed former Green Bay back-up Graham Harrell, somehow I don’t think Belichick and Brady are worried.   

New England Patriots:

Tom Brady obviously gives the Patriots the decided advantage in this division but that isn’t all they have.  Steven Ridley was exactly what the offense needed last year as an every down back and this year Shane Vereen looks completely capable of replacing Danny Woodhead’s production.  Danny Amendola could catch 120 passes this year if he plays 16 games and come on he has to stay healthy one of these years right?  Brady is going to make Kenbrell Thompkins a very rich in about 4 years when he’s a free agent and someone overpays him and then realizes they don’t have Tom Brady throwing to him.  The defense will be good but the secondary will likely be their undoing in the playoffs again.  As you can tell from the QB’s in their division having a bad secondary won’t hurt them as much in the regular season but things get a little tougher in the post season.

Miami Dolphins:

Teams that spend a boatload of money in free agency trying to right the ship rarely accomplish the goal.  Mike Wallace, Dustin Keller (already injured), Brandon Gibson, Dannell Ellerbe, Phillip Wheeler and Brent Grimes were all signed and I give the Dolphins credit because most of these guys are coming into their prime years but history is not on their side.  All of the progress they hope to make on offense with Wallace and Gibson may be undone by the fact that they let Jake Long and their one offensive weapon from last year Reggie Bush walk.  Jonathan Martin has struggled moving to Long’s old position at LT and Wallace’s deep speed won’t do any good if Tannehill is lying in a heap three seconds after taking the snap.  Lamar Miller has failed to seize the RB position from the soon-to-be-injured (I’m just assuming the inevitable) Daniel Thomas making the offense even more suspect.  The defense could be good, there is serious potential on that side of the ball but it will all be for nothing if they can’t stay off the field.

Buffalo Bills:

The Bills QB position is more tragic while the Jets QB position is just comical and the Bills are far less of mess everywhere else so they finish above the Jets.  EJ Manuel had a procedure on his knee that might keep him out the first and Kevin Kolb sustained another concussion that might end his career (nothing funny about either of those things).  This leaves the Bills with undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel who went 4-22 as a starter at Washington St. and newly signed Matt Leinart as their options to possibly start week 1…against New England.  Good luck guys.  More good news…the Bills have lost their best CB Stephon Gilmore for the foreseeable future.  I would accuse the Bills of tanking the season but this is just bad luck, a lot of bad luck.  Doug Marrone must be wondering if he can get his Syracuse job back.

New York Jets:

If Jerry Seinfeld, Bill Cosby and Johnny Carson got together they couldn’t write something this funny.  The Jets pass on Geno Smith twice in the first round of the draft and somehow he falls to them in the second round so they take him but they don’t hand him the starting job, it’s a “competition”.  Smith is slightly injured so he doesn’t play much and of course Mark Sanchez still can’t wrap up the job.  Smith finally plays in the “dress rehearsal” third pre-season game and proceeds to throw 3 picks and runs out of the back of the end zone accidently for a safety.  Rex Ryan then puts Sanchez into a game he didn’t think he was going to play in, behind a horrific second team offensive line, and Sanchez gets hammered into the ground and hurts his shoulder.  Fourth string QB Matt Simms comes in and looks like Dan Marino compared to these two and he’s probably going to get cut next week.  Don’t worry they have Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell at tailback and their top WR is Jeremy Kerley…wait, never mind… even if they had Dan Marino they would still finish last.  The good news is that the defense has some really nice players the new coaching staff next year can build a 4-3 defense around.  The Jets are taking tanking to a new level too bad the Jaguars and the Raiders are trying it too.

AFC North

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have owned this division for so long people forget who the other two teams are but that is about to change.  The Bengals are poised to finally step up as the Steelers and Ravens take small steps back and the Browns are…well…still the Browns.  The Bengals have coaching stability (the only head coach more tenured then Marvin Lewis is Bill Belichick), a solid QB with some really nice weapons and a killer defense.  Baltimore won the Super Bowl and while I think they did fine replacing Ray Lewis and Ed Reed it’s the trade of Anquan Boldin and the injury to Dennis Pitta that will come back to bite them.  The Steelers aren’t rebuilding but they are retooling around some younger guys.

Cincinnati Bengals:

It’s not just Marvin Lewis that gives the Bengals coaching stability they return offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, continuity goes a long way which is the reason the Ravens and Steelers have been so good for so long and the Brown haven’t.  Andy Dalton has one of the great emerging WR’s in the NFL in AJ Green and the Bengals got those two some help in the draft with TE Tyler Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard.  Bernard will eventually usurp BenJarvus Green-Ellis at tailback and Eifert offers a different look then Jermaine Gresham, a nice weapon in his own right.  The Bengals defense rarely gets mentioned with top defenses in the league but they are right there.  Geno Atkins is the most underrated destructive force in football; no one talks about him except opposing players that are trying to figure out how to block him.  The Bengals aren’t just a force in their division they could make serious noise in the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens:

When you lose two Hall of Famers on your defense you should expect to take a step back but when said Hall of Famers weren’t exactly playing at their peak last year it makes replacing them much easier.  Veteran LB Daryl Smith was brought in and while he won’t do the flashy pre-game dance Ray Lewis did he is more than capable of replacing his production on the field.  Ed Reed wasn’t himself even when he played last year and while Michael Huff is never going to be Ed Reed at his finest he can be better than Reed was last year.  This is the Ravens defense and it will be good again.  I can’t say the same for the offense.  Without Boldin and Pitta too much of the receiving burden falls on Torrey Smith and while the signings of Brandon Stokly and Dallas Clark would have been excellent in 2005 it’s not enough in 2013.  Joe Flacco got paid like a franchise QB this offseason but I have yet to see him turn middling WR’s into stars like Tom Brady does which means a lot rides on the legs of Ray Rice.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

This just seems like a transitional year for the Steelers.  Casey Hampton is officially gone, James Harrison was let go, Rashard Mendenhall left, Mike Wallace got paid by someone else and Troy Polamalu has to be on his last legs.  The Steelers are counting on a couple of rookies to come up big; LeVeon Bell at RB and Jarvis Jones at OLB except both are banged up.  Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer can hold the fort at RB but they don’t scare anyone.  Jason Worilds is just a guy at OLB until Jones can be healthy and productive.  The biggest impact rookie could be WR Markus Wheaton as he steps in as the third receiver, Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders have moved into the starting roles but Wheaton is a player.  The Steelers won’t be bad, they rarely ever are, but I don’t see them competing at the top of the AFC.

Cleveland Browns:

Stability is just a theory in Cleveland as they once again got a new team President, GM, head coach and coaching staff.  The good news is that Mike Lombardi is a bright personnel guy, Rod Chudzinski is solid head coaching hire and coordinators Norv Turner and Ray Horton are top notch.  This team has some great looking players but no one has been able to get the whole to add up to the sum of its parts.  There is great potential in RB Trent Richardson, WR Josh Gordon, WR Greg Little and TE Jordan Cameron while LT Joe Thomas is one of the best in the league.  The front seven on defense looks fantastic but other than CB Joe Haden the secondary needs an overhaul.  SS TJ Ward is okay and Leon McFadden might be a good nickel corner but that isn’t enough.  This team also looks like it’s again starting the season with six losses as their division is so tough.  This franchise needs to finally stick to a plan and it looks like they may actually be doing that this time.

AFC South

The Texans have finally figured out how to win a lot during the regular season and now they just have to figure out how to do it in the playoffs.  Andrew Luck is the reason teams are tanking this year to try to get Teddy Bridgewater because nothing saves a franchise like a franchise QB.  Tennessee invested heavily on the interior of their offensive line hoping Chris Johnson will rediscover his mojo and the Jacksonville Jaguars named the injured Blaine Gabbert their week 1 starter because they decided not to hide the fact that they are tanking. The don’t care whether it’s Teddy Bridgewater or Jadeveon Clowney that they get they just know they need one of the top two picks in the 2014 draft.

Houston Texans:

It took them a decade and about twenty tries but it finally looks like the Texans found a WR to compliment and actually lessen the burden on Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins is the man.  Arian Foster hasn’t played in the pre-season but that’s not unusual and Ben Tate has looked healthy and fantastic and if he can stay that way the Texans won’t miss a beat in the 3 or 4 games Foster sits out this season (you don’t have to be clairvoyant to know Foster won’t play 16 games).  The return of Brian Cushing is fantastic news for the defense, JJ Watt may be the reigning Defensive Player of the Year but Cushing is the leader of that defense and they missed him more than people realized when he was injured last year.  The one hole on defense the Texans are crossing their fingers over is free safety, they signed Ed Reed away from the Ravens and they hope he can squeeze one last season out of his considerable talent.

Indianapolis Colts:

So Peyton Manning gets injured and the Colts know they have to move on so they play Curtis Painter and some other schmucks at QB, win two games and end up with Andrew Luck who leads them to 11 wins his rookie year.  See tanking does work when there is a genuine franchise QB waiting in the draft (sorry Kansas City).  Luck is so good he has made Darrius Heyward-Bey look like a legitimate NFL WR in the pre-season.  The addition of Ahmad Bradshaw could be huge if he can stay on the field.  The defense was adequate last year and while there have been a few changes it looks like they can be just as good this year.  The Colts do face a tougher schedule then they did last year so they may not win 11 games again but they will be good as long as Luck is lining up under center.

Tennessee Titans:

The Titans spent big money on LG Andy Levitre and a first round pick on RG Chance Warmack and these two are doing exactly what they wanted which is open holes for Chris Johnson to run through.  The also signed Shonn Greene to take over as the short yardage/goal line back a job that Johnson does not excel at.  It is time for Jake Locker to step up and prove the Titans were right to take him so high in the draft and he has no excuses left.  The offensive line is fixed, Johnson and Greene should provide a legitimate running game and so far Kenny Britt isn’t injured or suspended (either of those things could change at any second).  The defense is hoping that last year’s free agent DE Kamerion Wimbley will provide the pass rush he was supposed to bring last year but that seems unlikely.  Without a better pass rush this defense is middle-of-the-pack at best but that’s good enough to keep them ahead of Jacksonville.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

The Jaguars are taking the position that they are going to give Blaine Gabbert every chance to prove he is their QB of the future…in other words they know he sucks and he’s the best chance they have at picking in the top two in next year’s draft.  They know the worst case scenario if they finish in the bottom two of the league is they either get Gabbert’s replacement in Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater or they get the pass rushing DE they have desperately needed for years now in Jadeveon Clowney from South Carolina. The only thing worse than the Gabbert led offense is the atrocious defense they Jags have assembled.  New head coach Gus Bradley worked with a great no-name defense in Seattle but those unknown players were actually good, the best player on the Jaguars defense is….give me minute…I’m sorry I need another minute, hold on…Paul Posluszny?  Yeah I’m going with that.  This tank job could backfire if both Clowney and Bridgewater (who both will still have eligibility left) decide they would rather stay in college and play for free than get paid to play for the Jaguars.

AFC West

The Peyton Manning led Broncos should own this division with the only possible threat coming from Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs had six Pro Bowlers last season in what has to be the best argument for discontinuing that game.  Kansas City had the misfortune of finally earning the #1 pick in the draft in a year where there was no franchise QB to take.  The Chargers are breaking in a new coaching staff while trying to get Phillip Rivers killed behind either King Dunlap or Max Starks at LT.  The Raiders are trying to out tank the Jaguars by not deciding on a QB and having their best offensive lineman LT Jared Veldheer lost for the season without a viable back-up.

Denver Broncos:

Peyton Manning has never had it so easy in a division race.  The Broncos will be missing superstar LB Von Miller for the first six games of the season and they could still have this division wrapped up before December.  Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker give Manning an unrivaled top 3 WR corps and between Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno they should be able to find a running game.  The defense will miss Miller and free agent loss Elvis Dumervil but even a middle-of-the-pack defense is enough for this team to win 13 games with their offense against the AFC.

Kansas City Chiefs:

The Chiefs finish second in this division by default.  They should be solid but not spectacular which is pretty much what will be written on QB Alex Smith’s tombstone someday.  Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are the only playmakers on offense unless Andy Reid can devise a way to make Dexter McCluster an actual weapon.  The Chiefs defense has a chance to be very good with pass rushing OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston bringing pressure and a secondary with talent like Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith and Eric Berry.  Reid has assembled a good coaching staff and they will get more out of the talent on this team than the previous staffs did.  Alex Smith is good enough to be a winning QB in the NFL but only if he has a great running game and a stellar defense.  The Chiefs aren’t there just yet but they are on the right track.

San Diego Chargers:

The good news is that the weather is always nice in San Diego.  Sorry that’s all I got.  The Chargers do have the second best QB in this division the problem is he can’t complete passes while lying on the ground.  They signed free agents King Dunlap and Max Starks to compete at LT and there was a reason these two were available.  Dunlap hasn’t been completely terrible in the pre-season but I wouldn’t expect him to hold up over an entire year.  Top WR Danario Alexander was lost for the year already and Malcolm Floyd is banged up.  Ryan Mathews has looked solid in the pre-season but he’s still Ryan Mathews so expectations shouldn’t be set too high.  The Chargers lost their one big playmaker on defense before training camp even got going when Melvin Ingram tore up his knee and now they are counting on Dwight Freeney to provide the pass rush so don’t expect that to work out very well.  The depth on this team is suspect at best and if they didn’t have Phillip Rivers in his prime years they would be in full rebuilding mode instead they are stuck in no man’s land.

Oakland Raiders:

The only team with a chance to out suck the Jaguars is the Oakland Raiders.  They traded for Matt Flynn to be their QB and now it looks like they may hand the reigns to Terrelle Pryor instead.  Flynn may actually be the lucky one here because when they lost their starting LT for the season their first option was to plug in Alex Barron aka The Human Holding Penalty.  At least Pryor has the athleticism to run away from the onslaught of pass rushers that will be running past Barron when he fails to hold onto them.  The best skill position player on the Raiders is RB Darren McFadden but he isn’t going anywhere behind an offensive line featuring Barron and Khalif Barnes at the OT position.  Seriously, the other starting skill position players are WR Denarius Moore (he should be someone’s #3 slot receiver), WR Rod Streater (not kidding) and TE Richard Gordon (who’s trying to prove not all Miami TE’s are great).  The Raiders offense is a joke and their defense is even worse.  Charles Woodson is probably the best player on their defense and that was fine in 2003 but this is 2013.

2013 NFL Preview    NFC

NFC East

What happens when an entire division goes 8-8?  The NFC East is the reason why I’m not going to predict overall records just the order I suspect the teams to finish in the division.  There is something I love and something I hate about each one of these teams and this division will be decided by which team puts it together on both sides of the football first.

Washington Redskins: 

Mike Shananhan struck gold twice in the 2012 Draft with Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris and he covered the team’s collective ass when he spent another pick on QB Kirk Cousins.  Washington says they are going to dial down Griffin’s running but I’ll believe that when I see it, luckily for them 12 or 13 games of Griffin with 3 or 4 games of Cousins should work just fine.  Pierre Garcon is huge addition to the offense after he missed most of last year with injuries.  The defense still could have issues but a healthy Brian Orakpo would make a world of difference.  The loss of rookie FS Phillip Thomas hurts more than anyone realizes as he could have been a playmaker in the secondary.

New York Giants:

They have Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle and Brandon Myers so the passing game should be fine.  An injury to their center shuffled their line moving David Diehl inside and putting rookie first round draft pick Justin Pugh at RT and that’s a serious upgrade.  Manning would have gotten killed with Diehl at RT, he was a turnstile there and that’s an insult to turnstiles because at least they put up a little resistance.  They are hoping David Wilson lives up to his potential and if he does they will be tough offensively.  The Giants defense was ravaged by injury last year and a return to health would be huge.  Unfortunately I still don’t like their LB’s and in a division with Alfred Morris, LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick and DeMarco Murray (at least until he’s hurt) having subpar LB’s is a problem

Dallas Cowboys:

Monte Kiffin deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame for the way he has already gotten the defense to step up in their transition.  Kiffin hasn’t been beholden to his Tampa-2 principles so much that he’s not utilizing the talent he has on hand.  He has let his CB’s play man-to-man to take advantage of their skills.  We will see how it all holds up throughout the season but Monte Kiffin’s genius is back, it’s surprising none of it rubbed off on his son.  Tony Romo has plenty of weapons; Dez Bryant (primed for a huge year), Miles Austin (finally healthy?), Jason Witten (one of the best TE’s in football) and DeMarco Murray (at least for the first few weeks).  Unfortunately the Cowboys offensive line is still in trouble and I don’t know if they can save it this late.  I still fully expect Murray to be hurt by week 5 and eventually Joseph Randle will be the running back.  They have other running backs that have been there but Randle’s talent will take him up the depth chart eventually.

Philadelphia Eagles:

Chip Kelly is an offensive genius and with a healthy and productive offensive line and Michael Vick the Eagles offense has hummed right along during the preseason despite losing a couple of good WR’s.  However, Chip Kelly’s genius has its limits and unless this team wins a lot of games 42-35 it could be a tough year.  Philadelphia’s transition to the 3-4 defense has been rough to say the least and the only reason they might not rank last in pass defense is because it looks like they are going to give up about a 250 yards rushing a game.  Quick fantasy note: if you need a RB for a week and the guy starting against the Eagles is available take him, I don’t care who he is, pick him up.

NFC North

This is the Packers division to lose and the only way they don’t win it is if one of the other teams plays out of their minds.  The Bears have new coaches, the Lions were awful last year and the Vikings have Christian Ponder at QB.  I think it’s the Packers and then everyone else fighting for second so don’t hold me to this predicted order of finish after the Pack.

Green Bay Packers:

When in doubt go with the best QB and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best in the league not just his division.  The only thing that unravels this team is a bad offensive line.  The loss of Bryan Bulaga is going to be tough because he was looking like a beast at LT before the injury.  They are so convinced Marshall Newhouse isn’t the answer that they left him at RT and are giving rookie David Bakhtiari every chance at the LT job.  Eddie Lacy should finally give Rodgers a running game to rely on too.  If Nick Perry can step up and give just a semblance of a pass rush opposite Clay Matthews the defense could be good.   Stability in the coaching staff and the best QB gives the division to the Packers.

Detroit Lions:

This team is like the Eagles for me; I like their offense but hate the defense.  I think Reggie Bush may be the most underrated addition in the offseason for anyone in the league.  Last season Matthew Stafford had one weapon, Calvin Johnson, and everyone knew it.  I think we see the Bush from New Orleans in terms of his use more than the every down back he was in Miami and that’s a good thing.  While Johnson is taking the defense deep to cover him Stafford can get Bush the ball in space and let him work.  The defense scares me though.  The defensive line should be good but the linebackers and the secondary are suspect.  The Lions secondary has been terrible for years and they seem to ignore it year after year.  Darius Slay would be a nice nickel CB but he’s already listed as a starter.  He wasn’t even the best starting CB on his college team last season (he was teammates with Buccaneer’s rookie Jonathan Banks).

Chicago Bears:

Jay Cutler has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett as weapons in new coach Marc Trestman’s offense, that’s the good news.  The bad news is that his best offensive lineman is Jermon Bushrod.  Bushrod is barely an upgrade at LT over new RT J’Marcus Webb, Matt Slauson and Kyle Long should be an upgrade at the guard spots but I still think Cutler is going to end up on his back far too often.  The Bears defense should be okay for another year but replacing the 35 year old Brian Urlacher with the 31 year old DJ Williams isn’t exactly what I had in mind for the defense getting younger.  Of course DJ Williams already got hurt and now rookie Jon Bostic will likely start at MLB.  New coaching staff, old defense and suspect offensive line means this season could end up in the playoffs or it could completely implode.  I think it’s going to be a long year for Bears fans.

Minnesota Vikings:

The Vikings have the best RB in the NFL, they have the best offensive line in this division and their defense should be fine, not great but fine.  There is one reason why I’m picking them last in the division…Christian Ponder.  The only QB in the league that is hoping his new top WR has lost a step because he knows he can’t throw it far enough for him if he hasn’t.  Matt Cassel may have gone from being the most unpopular guy in Kansas City to being the most popular guy in Minneapolis, at least until he has to play then Vikings fans will learn to hate him just as much.  Adrian Peterson says he’s going for 2500 yards this year, well he better because with Ponder playing his usual 12 games and Cassel subbing in the other four that Ponder misses due to injury the Vikings are going to need AD (yes that’s his nickname, it’s stands for All Day) to get every one of those 2500 yards.  And just to be clear yes I think last year was a fluke I don’t see the Vikings going 10-6 this year, so they will probably win the division.

NFC South

The Falcons and the Saints should be the cream of the crop here with the return of Sean Payton getting the Saints back on track.  Neither team has a great defense but both offenses should be able to make up the difference.  Tampa Bay needs the schizophrenic Josh Freeman to settle in and the Panthers need a new defense.

Atlanta Falcons:

This is the NFC team I’m rooting for this season and if the Patriots can’t win the Super Bowl I hope the Falcons do and it’s all because of Tony Gonzalez.  Gonzalez was going to retire but he’s still playing at an elite level and this team is so close to Super Bowl contention he couldn’t pass up the chance.  Replacing Michael Turner with Steven Jackson is a serious upgrade to the offense and the only concern on that side of the ball is the right side of the offensive line.  I really would have liked to see the Falcons get a guy like Eric Winston at RT but I think their offense will still be great.  The Falcons need Osi Umenyiora to find his pass rush again and Desmond Trufant should really help in the secondary.  The defense just has to be average and the offense can carry this team.

New Orleans Saints:

What a difference a head coach makes.  The return of Sean Payton is the biggest addition to a team that simply needs to forget last year.  The addition of Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator is the second biggest.  Ryan knows how to make a defense and while he’s trying to convert this defense I think he can make it work.  Drew Brees will have the offense moving right along with Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore and Darren Sproles if they could get anything out of Mark Ingram that would be a bonus.  It’s the defense that is the question mark, they haven’t been good in quite some time and Ryan needs to get the personnel to fit his 3-4 scheme.  The recent loss of Will Smith, their best pass rusher hurts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

The Greg Schiano experiment is in full effect now and it has a chance to be a huge success or it could be Chernobyl.  Josh Freeman wilted under the high expectations last season and the defense suffered multiple injuries and secondary was just plain bad.  Replacing 75% of the starting secondary was a good start as only SS Mark Barron returns.  Big acquisitions Derrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson should pay immediate dividends and the healthy return of DE’s Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers is of the utmost importance.  Freeman has to figure out which QB he really is because with the exception of TE he has some great weapons around him.  Doug Martin proved to be a great RB last season and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are a very good starting duo at WR.  The offensive line is solid so this offense will go as far as Freeman takes it, unless Schiano pulls the plug and hands the reigns to rookie Mike Glennon.  If that happens Buccaneer fans should duck and cover.

Carolina Panthers:

I look at the Panthers offensive depth chart and with the exception of the right side of the offensive line it looks fine, but that’s on paper.  DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in the backfield means you should have a running game but it just doesn’t work out that way on the field.  Cam Newton was supposed to revolutionize the QB position and then came RGIII, he’s like the new version of the iPhone.  By the way, Andrew Luck will win a Super Bowl before either of these two.  I’m not kidding, name the last running QB to win a Super Bowl?  No really, I’ll wait…don’t say Steve Young, he stopped running long before he won a Super Bowl that’s why he threw for 6 TD’s in that game.  Sorry, tangent over.  The Panthers defense has the mighty Luke Kuechly in the middle flanked by two guys made out of tissue paper, Thomas Davis and Jon Beason.  The defensive line looks okay with the addition of Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short but the secondary is atrocious.  When Drayton Florence is your best CB you are beyond needing help you need a complete overhaul.

NFC West

All media outlets were apparently contractually obligated to refer to this division as the “toughest division in the National Football League” this season.  I’d disagree if I actually disagreed but they’re right.  San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick all year and that defense, Seattle with Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and their defense, St. Louis is likely to be the most improved team of the year and even the Cardinals look like they can put up a fight.

San Francisco 49ers:

It’s tough to go against the defending NFC Champions when they return almost everyone of note.  They are going to miss Michael Crabtree until comes back (if he can come back at the end of the year) but let’s be honest he’s Michael Crabtree not Jerry Rice.  I think Jim Harbaugh is going to get creative with Kaepernick and make this offense a tough match up.  Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, a great offensive line, Frank Gore and a stable of running backs to rely on will carry this offense.  The defense is built on great players like Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, and Navarro Bowman and it is the best defense in the league.

Seattle Seahawks:

The Seahawks are going to give the 49ers all they can handle in this division and their team is stacked to do it.  They better hope that Russell Wilson stays healthy though because their back-up QB’s are Tavaris Jackson and Brady Quinn, even Marshawn Lynch can’t carry an offense led by either of those two.  Wilson is a playmaker, he buys time with his feet and finds the open man down field.  They already lost their big offensive acquisition of the year Percy Harvin but it looks like Golden Tate is finally ready to live up to his considerable talent and become the go-to WR on this team.  Their defense is built off of no-name players that play lights out together.  Richard Sherman became the big name last year due to his big mouth and he’s penchant for backing up his words with his play.  Somehow during his time at USC Pete Carroll learned to coach and his rivalry with Jim Harbaugh is highly entertaining.

St. Louis Rams:

Chris Givens, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook and especially Jake Long have become Sam Bradford’s new best friends on the Rams roster.  Givens was there last year but he has really stepped up this year.  Austin brings a game-breaking ability this offense has been lacking.  Jared Cook is the first real pass catching threat Bradford has had in his pro career and Jake Long will finally give Bradford some peace protecting his blindside.  Daryl Richardson flashed last season and has staked his claim to the RB job this fall and he should be fine.  The Rams defense was better than you probably realized last season and they added one of the biggest playmaking LB’s in the draft, Alec Ogletree is going to be a star (if he stays out of trouble).

Arizona Cardinals:

Levi Brown returning healthy at LT and the addition of Eric Winston at RT should be enough to help keep new QB Carson Palmer upright and that should make a passing game with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts pretty potent.  Brown isn’t an elite LT but he’s a considerable upgrade over last year’s LT’s.  If they can keep Palmer off his back he should be perfect in Bruce Arians downfield passing attack.  Rashard Mendenhall might get hurt and Ryan Williams is always hurt so it’s a good thing they drafted dark horse rookie RB Stepfan Taylor out of Stanford.  He should be starting by week 6 and he’s pretty good.  The biggest loss on defense was actually coordinator Ray Horton but this defense will benefit simply by not having to be on the field the whole time.  There is some good talent on defense if you give them a moment to catch their breath once in a while.  This is going to be a tough fourth place in the division team, no easy outs in the NFC West.

Playoff Predictions and overall league review, including MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and offensive and defensive Rookie of the Year picks will come after my AFC preview.

Observations and Impressions from Hawkeye’s Open Practice

QB position has a definite order

Jake Rudock is the leader in the clubhouse for the starting job and while Kirk Ferentz wouldn’t actually confirm it officially the scrimmage told the story.  Rudock lined up with the first team offense against the first team defense almost exclusively.  CJ Beathard and Cody Sokol rotated with the second team and while they made flashier plays they did it playing against the second team defense.  Beathard has the lead to be the back-up but Sokol played fine too.  It looks like the real competition here is between Beathard and Sokol for the back-up job and the next two weeks of practice will be spent fine tuning Rudock’s game and deciding what to do behind him.  While Beathard and Sokol both made more big plays than Rudock during the scrimmage if you watched closely I would say it had more to do with the first team WR’s struggling against the first team defense while the second team WR’s did a much better job against their counterparts.  One thing I noticed more during the pre-scrimmage drills that makes me like Rudock is the speed in which he delivers the ball on short routes.  Last season the quick out to the WR was one of the least effective plays the Hawkeyes ran and while some of that was due to WR’s lacking big play skills it was actually more because James Vandenberg was too slow to get the ball out to the WR giving the defense ample time to diagnose the play.  Rudock looks quick, decisive and accurate running this play and that should put the receivers in a position to make plays.

It’s doubtful that the WR position is settled

Disappointing doesn’t begin to describe the feeling I had watching Don Shumpert line up with the first team offense to start the scrimmage.  Kevonte Martin-Manley was a no-brainer and it was great to see Damon Bullock split out wide on the first play but Shumpert was a surprise.  Tevaun Smith has been listed as a starter and he lined up with the second team along with Damond Powell and Riley McCarron.  The good news is that Powell and Smith were the stars of the scrimmage and Shumpert played like Shumpert.  Powell was the unquestionable star of the day with a great TD catch from Beathard and another big play from Sokol followed by another long play after the team stopped tackling.  The best news is the Powell has only been with the team for two weeks and he’s already playing like this, give him two more weeks and I don’t care who starts the Northern Illinois game Powell will be the difference maker.  I don’t know what it is the coaches see in Don Shumpert, I’ve been watching this kid for four years and he has no receiver instincts.  Powell barely knows the offense but he knows how to get open, how to set up a defensive back and he’s a natural pass catcher, all traits that Shumpert still lacks.  I mentioned how Rudock was playing against the first team defense and it was Shumpert, Martin-Manley and Bullock that were struggling to get open for him while Powell and Smith were having their way against the second team.  I would have liked to have seen Powell and Smith get a chance against the first team defense and I suspect that either one of them would have done better than Shumpert.

Bullock looked comfortable at WR and I suspect he won’t come off the field much as he lined up at WR for the first two downs and then moved to tailback on third down.  The Hawkeyes have to get the ball in his hands in space because he can be a playmaker.  Riley McCarron looks small on the field but the kid can get open and he catches everything he gets his hands on.  Kevonte Martin-Manley was quiet but he spent most of his day lined up against BJ Lowery or Jordan Lomax and he didn’t see a lot of targets so it’s understandable.  The young guys look like they are still learning but I have to say I was impressed, physically they look like they could contribute if needed.

Daniels is going to make it interesting at RB

I mentioned in my preview that LeShun Daniels is the only freshman that is physically ready to contribute and boy was I underselling it.  Weisman is the starter and he struggled as the first team defense played well against the first team offense.  Weisman is what he is, a big powerful straight ahead runner that will punish the defense.  He doesn’t run away from people and it looked as though the Hawkeyes would count on Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock to be the game breakers in the backfield.  With Bullock moving out to WR for the most part it seemed Canzeri would be the main compliment to Weisman but Daniels isn’t going to make it that easy on the coaches.  Ferentz basically said they expect Daniels to play this season and not redshirt which means he’s already passed by Barkley Hill (who sat out the open practice) and Mike Malloy (who played behind Daniels).  Anyone watching Daniels on Saturday would make the obvious comparison to Shonn Greene and it certainly looks appropriate.  Daniels is powerful with great feet and balance, he has a strong base and more speed than you would expect out of a guy his size.  He is a freshman so pass protection and blitz pick up are the things he needs to work on and Ferentz is unlikely to trust him until he proves himself in that part of the game.  However, if Weisman struggles or gets injured like last season it won’t be the least bit shocking if it is Daniels taking over the bulk of the carries and not Canzeri.  Oh and given the lack of experience at fullback when the Hawkeyes get into short yardage or goal line situations they may want to consider lining up Weisman and fullback followed by Daniels; that would be a tough backfield to deny.

The offensive line will be just fine

Brandon Scherff is a monster and it’s safe to say he’s fully recovered from his injury and if you don’t believe me just go ask the DE’s that he was manhandling most of the day.  Van Sloten has his RT position on lockdown too so the edges are just fine.  It’s tough to get a great sense of the interior of the line watching them live but they did struggle against Carl Davis and I’m going chalk that up to Davis continuing his great play from the spring and the guard spots not being settled.  Conor Boffeli wasn’t suited up so Andrew Donnal started at LG and he has a shot at that job.  Jordan Walsh started at RG and he was in more of a rotation and that’s where it gets interesting.  Someone I forgot to mention in my preview because he wasn’t in the two deeps and he hasn’t played much is Nolan MacMillan.  MacMillan has constantly battled injuries while at Iowa but during the few moments he’s been healthy (moments is barely an exaggeration) the coaching staff has loved the way he played.  He rotated in at both guard spots and if he’s healthy he’s a possibility as a back-up tackle.  It would be a great story if this oft injured senior could stay healthy and contribute on the line.  The only injury that happened during the scrimmage was Eric Simmons injuring his leg while playing second team center and while he needed a lot of help to get off the field he actually returned to action later so no harm done.

Ferentz wasn’t kidding about his TE’s

Kirk Ferentz made reference to playing five TE’s this season and it appears he meant it.  CJ Fiedorowicz is an imposing figure and he seems poised for breakout season.  Ray Hamilton and Henry Krieger-Coble saw plenty of action.  Jake Duzey lined up all over the field and was targeted a number of times.  None of this is much of a surprise but George Kittle’s playing time might be.  Kittle is a still undersized redshirt freshman that actually lined up out wide quite a few times.  I’m not sure if Kittle is an undersized TE or an overgrown WR but either way it looks like the coaching staff plans to use him in the passing game.

The defensive tackles will make the defensive ends better

My expectations for the defensive line this season are that they will be better and that the pass rush will come as much from the DT position as it will from the DE position, thank you Carl Davis you are going to make me look like a genius.  While the defensive line wasn’t getting sacks (not that they were allowed to tackle the QB anyway) they were getting a push.  The light came on for Carl Davis in the spring and it’s going to shine brightly this season.  You would think a 6’5 315 pound DT would just be a big run stuffer but Davis collapsed the pocket right in the middle and is going to make life tough on opposing QB’s and opposing RB’s are going to hate him too.  Louis Trinca-Pasat has reclaimed his starting spot after missing spring practice and he’s pretty good too.  Dominic Alvis looks better and we may see a return to his pre-injury form.  Drew Ott was the surprise as he no longer looks so undersized, if he can bring some pressure from the outside the defensive line a chance to be pretty good.  Nate Meier was probably the biggest surprise, not necessarily for his play but for the fact that he rotated in as a pass rushing specialist with the first unit and played a lot on the second team.  He’s not the biggest DE and so he won’t hold up playing a lot of downs but as specialist he could be a big contributor.

The linebackers are good, no kidding. 

Nothing really stood out about the starting linebackers but they were free to run since the defensive line was playing better and that’s a good sign.  The one back-up I noticed make a couple of nice athletic plays was Travis Perry.  Just a few times I noticed him in on some plays and he has really grown into a nice linebacker.  The one young guy I noticed was Reggie Spearman, he has good instincts and is a fluid athlete but he’s pretty undersized so let’s hope he doesn’t have to play this year.

Talent and depth all over the secondary

BJ Lowery and Jordan Lomax are going to be a fantastic set of CB’s and they are going to make it tough on opposing QB’s.  Sean Draper may eventually be better than either one of them and that may come this year.  When you lose the Big 10 Defensive Back of the Year in Micah Hyde it’s tough to believe your CB’s could actually be better but Lowery is going to be a star and won’t back down from anyone and Lomax just needs playing time.  Draper has all the tools you look for and he is just getting better and better.

John Lowdermilk has distanced himself from Nico Law in the race for SS and he looks pretty good.  Lowdermilk looks bigger than his listed weight of 207 and is a sure tackler, something missing at this position last season.  Tanner Miller is the guy at FS and he should benefit from a much better secondary around him, Anthony Gair is a good athlete but he isn’t ready for the job.  The player that stood out at safety to me was Ruben Lile, they brought him in and lined him up covering TE’s.  Lile has the size and athletic ability to actually cover TE’s and possibly slot receivers if necessary, that’s a nice player to have.

Specialists

Kicker Mike Meyer could be in for a big year if the offense can move the ball.  Punter Connor Kornbrath didn’t shank any punts that I recall so that’s good.  He wasn’t always great but he didn’t look bad either, he also looks like a TE, he’s listed at 6’6 240 pounds and I think that may be an underestimate.  Little warning to opponents trying to block punts, rough the punter at your own risk.

Kevonte Martin-Manley, Jordan Canzeri and Riley McCarron all fielded punts and only Canzeri muffed one so I guess the competition is down to two (I’m just assuming Ferentz is going with the last guy to drop a punt wins).  Jordan Cotton is likely to be one kickoff returner and I would hope they give Damond Powell a shot just to get him on the field more but Sean Draper is a possibility too and he could be dangerous.

 

The 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes

Defense

Defensive Line

The Iowa Hawkeye’s offense will only improve as much as their QB play improves over last year.  On the defensive side the problems on last year’s team can be traced back to the defensive line for the most part.  In 2012 the defense had a total of 13 sacks on the year, that’s exactly the same number Jadeveon Clowney had at South Carolina by himself and a sack and half less then Jarvis Jones had at Georgia.  Calling last season’s pass rush ineffective doesn’t even begin to describe it and Iowa has always been a team that relies on its defensive line to bring pressure.  Even more good news, last year’s sack leader (with 5) Joe Gaglione has graduated.  Not all of the pressure falls on the defensive ends and in the past the Hawkeyes have generated a pass rush from the defensive tackle position (Mitch King or Karl Klug anyone) and that may be the way it has to come this season too.

Defensive End:

Starters:

Dominic Alvis:  The senior is coming off an unremarkable year that saw him coming back from an injury.  Alvis looked like he might be a player before his ACL tear and while he was fully recovered last season the Hawkeyes have to hope that another year removed from his injury allows Alvis to return to pre-injury form.  Alvis has enough size and the type of athleticism you look for in a DE but he just wasn’t effective rushing the passer last year.  He won’t hurt you at DE as he plays the run well and makes the offensive line account for him but he hasn’t shown great pass rushing skills.  Perhaps better production from the rest of the line will relieve the pressure on Alvis and he will shine this season.

Drew Ott:  He was supposed to redshirt last season as a true freshman but injuries and ineffectiveness necessitated the pulling of his redshirt about half way through the season.  Ott was pretty undersized last season and that made him a nonfactor in the pass rushing game.  He has added size over the offseason and that should help but he is still just a true sophomore so he hasn’t physically matured completely and he’s still growing into his body.  Ott shows a lot of promise but he’s going to need some time and that is why he may be the starter but he will share playing time with others.

Back-ups:

Mike Hardy:  The junior has bounced between DE and DT a bit and seems to have now found a home at end.  I’m not sure if that is because that is where he is best suited or if it’s just where he is needed.  The depth and talent at DT is better than at DE so Hardy has a better chance to contribute here.  As of now he is listed behind Ott and it looks like he will have to fight off redshirt freshman Faith Ekakitie for playing time.

Faith Ekakitie:  The redshirt freshman brings size and skill to the end position after it looked like he might be ticketed for the tackle position last year.  Ekakitie was a well-regarded recruit coming in and he already has the size to compete at the college level.  We may actually see him on running downs replacing the smaller Ott because he brings more heft and will be harder to move.

Riley McMinn:  McMinn is a 6-7 sophomore that is just growing into his body and the coaches have to be hoping that his maturation leads a player that can get to the QB.  His height should lend itself to being a disruptive force in the passing lanes if nothing else.

Daumantas Venckus-Cucchiara:  That will be the last time I type out DVC’s name.  The redshirt freshman has earned a spot in the two-deeps and we shall see if he can actually earn playing time or not.  There will undoubtedly be a rotation of players at DE and match-ups and game situation will dictate a lot of playing time so it will be interesting to see where DVC is used if he does earn playing time.

Young guys to keep an eye on:

Nate Meier:  The former eight-man football star moved all over the practice field last year playing RB/FB/LB and actually seeing game reps on special teams.  He finally seems to have settled in at DE and the hope is that he can translate his athleticism into pass rushing ability and be a situational pass rusher this year.

Melvin Spears:  His name seems to pop up on the depth chart every once in a while but the sophomore can’t seem to crack the lineup.  He will get this year to take a shot at playing time since the Hawkeyes didn’t bring in a single DE recruit in this freshmen class but if he can’t break into this lineup his prospects dim in the future.

Defensive Tackle

Starters:

Carl Davis:  Davis is not like other DTs that Iowa has had in the past.  You have to go back to Colin Cole to find someone with the pure size that Davis brings to the position.  At 6-5 315 pounds he is a mountain of a man but up until this point that hasn’t translated on the field. However, if the spring open practice is any indication the light has come on for this kid.  Davis was dominating during the spring and he was bringing it as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher.  The lives of the DEs will be much easier if Davis can play the season the way he was playing in the spring.  A big man with good feet and strong hands can be devastating to an opponent and Davis is starting to realize his potential.

Louis Trinca-Pasat: If there was one bright spot on the defensive line last season it was the emergence of Trinca-Pasat.  Louis played well and most people didn’t notice because the d-line was so bad overall.  He had surgery in the offseason so he may end up not starting because there is some pretty good talent behind him but he will be part of the rotation and I think the coaches will reward him for his play last season.  He is just as good as the other guys and he showed a lot of heart last year.

The rest of the rotation:  It is tough to call Darian Cooper and Jaleel Johnson back-ups because they might start and they for sure will see plenty of playing time.

Darian Cooper:  Cooper played fairly well last year too but he wasn’t as consistent as Trinca-Pasat and he’s still a little light for a DT.  Cooper has the makings of a very disruptive interior player because he uses his quickness to gain an advantage against the offensive line.  He isn’t big but Iowa has a history of getting great play out of undersized DT (King and Klug, remember).

Jaleel Johnson:  Like I said it has been a long time since the Hawkeyes had a DT the size of Carl Davis so with that in mind the coaches recruited Jaleel Johnson last year.  At 6-4 310 pounds Johnson is backing up Carl Davis and they aren’t going to lose much when Davis comes off the field.  As big as Johnson is the scary part is he actually looks bigger if that’s possible.  The best part about having two guys this size is that they can keep each other fresh and make it a long day for opposing offensive linemen.  I don’t know if Johnson will be the pass rusher that Davis seems to be but it won’t matter because on running downs the Hawkeyes may simply play both these guys and dare teams to try to run up the middle.

Young guys you’ll have to wait to see:  Nathan Bazata and Brant Gressel

The two defensive line recruits the Hawkeyes have this year are both in the 280 pound range and project to the DT position.  Considering none of the four guys I just mentioned are seniors you will have to wait a few years before these two get much of a chance.

Linebacker

Senior middle linebacker James Morris has been starting since midway through his freshman season and he is flanked on both sides by fellow seniors and uber-athletes Christian Kirksey and Anthony Hitchens.  The linebackers are the strength and the backbone of this defense and they will greatly appreciate better play in front of them.  These three racked up big tackle numbers last season especially Hitchens and while that’s usually a good thing it was as much a product of the line letting everything get to the linebackers as it was the play of these guys.

Starters:

James Morris:  Morris came to Iowa after a stellar high school career just up the road from Iowa City and the expectations were very high.  He took over the starting MLB spot midway through his freshman year and with a few notable exceptions has played there his entire career.  Morris takes quite a bit of criticism when his play isn’t great and while he has had some rough moments he is the quarterback of this defense.  It’s a cliché to say that the MLB is the heart and soul of a defense but Morris is the unquestioned leader of this D and he makes sure everyone is lined up where they should be.  Morris gets noticed for the plays that he misses but he rarely gets as much credit for the plays he makes.

Anthony Hitchens:  The breakout star of Iowa’s 2012 defense was Hitchens.  He led the Big Ten in tackles and showed everyone his skill and athleticism.  The Hawkeye defense didn’t exactly have a long list of stars last season so it wasn’t as hard for Hitchens to stand out but his play speaks for itself.  Hitchens is a great athlete that finally found a home at LB last season, early in his career he practiced at both running back and safety.

Christian Kirksey:  Kirksey had a breakout season two years ago as a sophomore and then was outshined a bit last season by the emergence of Hitchens.  Kirksey may actually be more athletic than Hitchens but his position doesn’t lend itself to racking up the tackle numbers the way Hitchens’ does.  He has always been a bit undersized but he has finally matured into a linebacker’s body and he still has explosive speed.

Next man in:

Quinton Alston:  No disrespect to the other “back-ups” but Alston is at a different level than the others.  He is a MLB and doesn’t really have the skill set to play outside but it is actually Morris’ versatility and knowledge of the defense that makes Alston the “next man in”.  Ferentz has never said this but the truth is that if Morris gets hurt Alston replaces him in the middle and the defense doesn’t miss a beat.  If Hitchens or Kirksey were to go down the likely scenario would be to move Morris over to fill in their position and bring Alston in to play the middle.  Morris playing out of position next to Alston in the middle is better than Morris staying in the middle and playing one of the other back-ups.

Back-ups:

Travis Perry:  Perry is a walk-on that has worked his way up to the two-deeps and is the back-up to Christian Kirksey.  He has worked hard and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Ferentz give him a scholarship at some point but it doesn’t say much for the older linebackers on the roster that Perry is ahead of them.  Perry can play but it will take a couple of injuries for him to see a lot of playing time beyond special teams this year.  He will get a shot at the job next year but there are some young linebackers on the roster that might pass him up.

Marcus Collins and Cole Fisher:  Collins is a fourth year junior and Fisher is a third year sophomore and both are listed as the back-up to Anthony Hitchens.  Both players are still a bit undersized and their contributions on special teams will far outweigh there contributions at linebacker this year.  They can both play if need be but if injuries hit the linebacker corps hard it could be trouble.

The Young Guns: Laron Taylor, Reggie Spearman, John Kenny and Josey Jewell

Taylor is a redshirt freshman while Spearman, Kenny and Jewell are all true freshmen and they all need some time to add size but they are only going to get a year.  Next season Quinton Alston will be a senior and he will be locked into the MLB spot but the coaches recruited these four and are recruiting even more linebackers this year with the expectation that they will compete for the other two spots.  Perry may play himself into a starting spot next season but he is going to have to fend off these four challengers and possibly more.

Defensive Backs

The position is long on talent and light on experience.  BJ Lowery moves into the top CB spot previously held by Micah Hyde and he has the talent to excel.  Jordan Lomax is penciled in as the starter opposite Lowery and he is returning after missing last year with an injury.  Senior Tanner Miller returns at free safety after a less than stellar junior year.  The real competition seems to be at strong
safety where John Lowdermilk is looking to bump fan favorite Nico Law to the bench.  The most important addition to the secondary is the return of defensive coordinator Phil Parker as the position coach.  Parker has coached some of the best defensive backs at Iowa and he has a knack for bringing out the best in his players.  If Tanner Miller has a bounce back season at free safety I think much of the credit goes to Parker.

Cornerback

Starters:

BJ Lowery:  Lowery started last season and is the most experienced CB on the roster.  He has the talent and confidence necessary to be the top CB.  At 5-11 193 pounds Lowery has good size and he has a short memory which is essential for a CB.  Lowery could really stand out if the Hawkeye defensive line can bring some pressure.  He will draw the toughest assignments and he will get beat from time to time because he gambles to make a big play but he will make that play enough times to make it worthwhile.  Lowery is the defensive back the Hawkeyes will be counting on to create turnovers in the passing game and watch out because he could make some plays after picking off a pass.

Jordan Lomax:  A lot like Barkley Hill at running back last season Lomax was turning heads and making a name for himself in practice until an injury ended his season before it began.  Lomax is a good athlete with great instincts at CB.  He has good size too but he will have to hold off the challenge of Sean Draper.  Lomax looks like he will be the starter but if he falters at all he may end up the nickel back.

Back-ups:

Sean Draper:  The sophomore saw quite a bit of action last year as a true freshman due to the injuries and the ineffectiveness of some older players.  Draper has all the physical skills and the temperament to be a great CB and it should be interesting to watch him develop under the tutelage of Phil Parker.  He’s going to give Lomax a challenge for the starting spot but even if he doesn’t win that job he will see plenty of action given the three-receiver sets the Hawkeyes will continually face.

Maurice “Reese” Fleming:  The redshirt freshman is known as Reese and he’s also known as a heck of an athlete.  He started out last season as a WR and then was moved to CB for whatever reason.  Fleming was seen as a possible playmaker on offense until the coaches deemed him better suited for defense.  He still wants to get his hands on the ball and even though he wasn’t mentioned by the coaches as a possible punt returner he let it be known that he isn’t out of the running yet.  Fleming looks like the type of athlete that can excel at CB because of his quickness and the fluidity of his movements.  Phil Parker has done far more with far less gifted athletes and while Fleming may have to be patient waiting for playing time he should be an excellent CB down the road.

Gavin Smith:  Smith is a former transfer from Iowa Central Community College entering his senior season who has seen little playing time at CB.  He contributes on special teams and has a good knowledge of the scheme but he has been passed by younger player and will likely only play if absolutely necessary.

The Freshmen Depth:  Desmond King and Malik Rucker:

Two true freshman slated to play CB.  King was a quiet late addition to the recruiting class but he comes in as the all-time leader in interceptions in the state of Michigan.  He made an early move to Iowa City this summer to help himself get ready to contribute this season and while a lot of college CBs are great athletes that teams turn into CBs this kid is a CB through and through.  If there is going to be a surprise playmaker in the Hawkeye secondary my money is on Desmond King.  Rucker is a good athlete that needs time to physically mature but he could play in a pinch and should be a good player in time.

Strong Safety

Starter:

John Lowdermilk or Nico Law:  The surprise of the early two-deeps seemed to be that Lowdermilk had pulled even with fan favorite Nico Law in the race to start at SS.  Lowdermilk is sort of an unknown but he brings good size and the likelihood is that it is his consistency that is winning over the coaches.  Nico Law took over as the starter at SS at around midseason last year and while he is a fan favorite due to his social media prowess he became a bit of a wildcard on the field and that doesn’t endear him to Coach Ferentz.  Law tends to gamble a bit and he looks for the big hit when he should concentrate on making the tackle and while he may want to be the “next Bob Sanders” Sanders wasn’t known for missing tackles or being out of position.  Law has all the ability needed to be a top SS but if Lowdermilk proves he’s the more reliable player there is little doubt who the coaches will go with.  Lowdermilk is no slouch and he played well on special teams last year so the coaches know what they are getting from him and that goes a long way.

Back-up:

Ruben Lile:  The redshirt freshman looked good early last year before tearing his ACL and missing the season, no my writing is not echoing there just seems to be a theme here.  Lile is a 6-3 210 pound safety with superior athleticism and if he hadn’t blown out his knee last year there is a real chance that there isn’t even a debate at the SS position because he may have staked his claim to it last year.  This kid has everything you want in a safety and if he is completely recovered and ready to go he may make this a three-way race.  If he can’t crack the Lowdermilk/Law combo perhaps he tries the Kirksey/Hitchens method and transitions to OLB for 2014 season, there is playing time to be had and he isn’t much smaller than they were when they moved to LB.

Free Safety

Starter:

Tanner Miller:  The fan bases’ favorite whipping boy last season gave the Hawkeye faithful plenty to complain about.  Miller certainly did not have a good season last year and I doubt even he would deny it.  What most fans fail to realize is that Miller was the last line of defense on a team that had virtually no first line of defense.  Miller made plenty of mistakes that exacerbated the problems of the Hawkeye defense but he spent far too much time trying to make up for the mistakes of others and not enough time trying to just do his job.  There is no one on the Hawkeye roster that will benefit more from a coaching change than Tanner Miller. The impact the return of Phil Parker to defensive backs coach will have cannot be overstated.  Parker has made a career out of making guys like Derek Pagel and Sean Considine into fantastic safeties.  Miller is in that same mold and may even be a better athlete than some of the guys Parker has worked with.  He played pretty well as a sophomore and then regressed a lot last season under Derrell Wilson.  Miller will also be better if the defensive line plays better and if he has a more consistent SS in front of him (John Lowdermilk perhaps?).

Back-up:

Anthony Gair:  The redshirt freshman out of Texas has the size and athletic ability you want in a safety but not much is known about him.  His natural talent will carry him for now and he will get a shot to push Miller but Miller is a senior with a lot of playing time under his belt and he knows that defense far better than Gair.  It will take a catastrophic fall by Miller to lose his starting job.

The young guys: 

Greg Mabin and Soloman Warfield:  Mabin is a redshirt freshman but he played WR last year and just moved over to the defense in spring practice so he is still finding his way.  Warfield could be a wildcard as a true freshman.  He may have the versatility to play multiple positions in the defensive backfield so it will take some time to sort out exactly where he best fits.

Punter:

Connor Kornbrath:  Kornbrath struggled last season as a true freshman but considering he is the only punter on the roster it’s his job.  The truth is I remember Ryan Donahue struggling as a freshman too and he turned out pretty well; Kornbrath will be fine it will just take some time.

Special Teams

Punt return:  Kevonte Martin-Manley, Jordan Canzeri, Riley McCarron and Maurice Fleming apparently all have a shot at returning punts.  Ferentz has a tendency to go with ball security over playmaking at this position so Fleming may be on the outside looking in.  The other three seem to be solid with their hands so this may take some time to work out.

Kickoff return:  Jordan Cotton excelled at this last season and it is where he began to make his mark and coach Chris White was heard saying that JUCO transfer Damond Powell is getting a look at kickoff return too.  I’ve seen Powell’s JUCO film and the idea of a guy with that speed lining up with Cotton on kickoff return sounds like heaven to me.

Long-snapper:  Casey Kreiter is a very good long-snapper for the Hawkeyes and the way you can tell is that you have never heard his name.  The goal of every long-snapper is stay anonymous…it means you never screw up.

Final Analysis

Iowa’s defense will be as good as their defensive line allows them to be.  Last year’s line was pretty horrific and the defense followed suit.  The linebackers need the line to keep them clean of blockers so they can make plays and the secondary needs the line to get some pressure so QBs don’t have all day to find their receivers.  These are pretty basic defensive principles but watch last year’s team and you see why the fundamentals of football always remain the same.  There are a lot of different ways teams go about achieving these basics but Iowa has always relied on the four down linemen to get pressure.  Iowa has never been fancy, or as Kirk Ferentz would put it sexy, but they are usually good at the fundamentals and that is where the Hawkeyes failed last season on defense.  Fans (and I include myself in this group) wish that Ferentz would try something new and innovative, especially when things are going badly but Ferentz believes if the Hawkeyes clean up their mistakes the rest will take care of itself.  We did see a bit of a philosophical change last year as the defense did use the nickel and dime defenses more against multiple receiver sets instead of expecting a LB to cover a WR all the time.  My sincere hope is that the addition of Jim Reid will lead to Iowa committing more to matching up against their opponents personnel.  Ferentz is unlikely to ever embrace a heavy blitz scheme as it goes against his nature but if the defensive line can’t get pressure using the linebackers, especially Christian Kirksey, should be considered.  Having three good corners like Lowery, Lomax and Draper should mean using the nickel against spread teams won’t be a problem.

I’m planning on attending the Hawkeyes open fall practice next Saturday and I’ll give an update on what I see and maybe I’ll have a better idea of how I see the season unfolding.  At this point until a QB is chosen and I can see how the WR’s and DE’s are playing this team is still a bit of a mystery.