2013 NFL Draft Analysis

I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division.  I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

20. Kyle Long   OL

50. Jon Bostic   LB

117. Khaseem Greene   OLB

163. Jordan Mills   OT

188. Cornelius Washington   DE

236. Marquess Wilson   WR

Immediate Impact:  OL Kyle Long

The Bears better hope that Long makes an immediate impact because their offensive line is simply offensive.  He is long on talent but short on experience so it will be trial by fire for the NFL legacy (yep, he’s Howie’s kid and Chris’ brother).  He is listed as an OG by and he could excel inside but I’m not going to discount the possibility that he can compete at RT.  He certainly has more upside than anyone else competing at that position.  The Bears know what they have in J’Marcus Webb, Gabe Carimi and Jonathan Scott and none of it is real impressive.  Regardless of which position he ends up playing Long will bring some fire to the line and he may just be the most talented player on the line although that isn’t exactly high praise considering his competition.

Best Value:  LB Khaseem Greene

Greene is a serious talent and on a team that needs to get younger and more athletic at LB getting him in the fourth round of the draft is a steal.  The Bears still have Lance Briggs and they signed some older veterans like DJ Williams and James Anderson but it won’t be long before their second round pick Jon Bostic and Greene are starting at MLB and OLB respectively.

Sleepers:  DE Cornelius Washington, WR Marquess Wilson

The Bears did fantastic at the end of this draft grabbing a couple of supremely talented players that have some questions.  Washington was a guy playing OLB opposite Jarvis Jones at Georgia and while he never put up eye-popping numbers like Jones he was a pretty solid player.  Washington will be better off lining up at DE for the Bears and rushing the passer and I can see him making a real contribution to their rotation.  Wilson has some character concerns after he quit the team at Washington St. after conflicts with the coaching staff.  The one thing that isn’t a concern is his talent, a natural pass catcher with good size and decent speed can find a place on the Bears depth chart if he can keep himself in line.

Overall Analysis:

A couple of offensive lineman, a couple of linebackers, a pass rusher and a wide receiver with some talent makes for a pretty good draft class.  I would be shocked if all six of these guys didn’t make the Bears roster and five of them could contribute early.  This team needed an influx of youth in talent especially at OL and LB and they got it here.  Even OT Jordan Mills has some future upside.  A lot of people think Kyle Long was a reach in the first round and he was to a certain extent but it was more about the inflated value of offensive linemen early in this draft that pushed Long up and while I like Menelik Watson better as a potential RT for the Bears they certainly have a need both inside and outside that Long could potentially fill.

Detroit Lions

5. Ezekiel Ansah   DE

36. Darius Slay   CB

65. Larry Warford   OG

132. Devin Taylor   DE

165. Sam Martin   P

171. Corey Fuller   WR

199. Theo Riddick   RB

211. Michael Williams   TE

245. Brandon Hepburn   ILB

Immediate Impact:  DE Ezekiel Ansah, CB Darius Slay, OG Larry Warford

The Lions need all the immediate impact they can get and it may come from more than just these three but these guys come in at immediate need positions and they can all play.  Ansah’s only competition for playing time at this point is fellow draftee Devin Taylor and the Lions will give Ansah every opportunity to prove them right.  Playing with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in the middle should mean Ansah gets less attention outside but it would be nice if someone else steps up at the other DE spot.  Slay will have little trouble locking down a starting job unless some veterans play a lot better than they have in the past.  Warford is a need inside as the Lions juggle replacing many older players and free agent defections and move parts around to get five good players on the field.  Warford may not be in the same class as Warmack or Cooper in this draft but he’s a long term starter at OG in the league.

Best Value:  OG Larry Warford

Guard is not a sexy position and it usually gets devalued in the draft but make no mistake good guards can make a difference and Warford is very good.  When you get a guy who can start for you for the next 7-10 years in the third round of the draft you are getting great value.  Warford has future Pro-Bowl potential.

Sleepers:  DE Devin Taylor, WR Corey Fuller

Taylor was better known as South Carolina’s other defensive end; Jadeveon Clowney’s presence has that effect.  The problem for Taylor was that Clowney’s presence didn’t elevate his game and teams question why he wasn’t more productive when the opposition had to account for his immensely talented teammate.  Taylor looks great getting off the bus, he’s 6’7 with a freakish wingspan and if Detroit’s defensive line coach can get him to live up to just a little bit of that potential on a line featuring Suh, Fairley and Ansah he could be devastating.  Fuller is more of a sleeper just because his production suffered last year at Virginia Tech do to a QB that didn’t live up to his hype and an offense that wasn’t able to take advantage of Fuller’s skills.  Fuller has a great opportunity in Detroit because of the presence of Calvin Johnson and the dearth of players at the WR position.  I won’t be the least bit shocked if Fuller starts more than a few games this year.

Overall Analysis:

Ansah, Slay, Warford, Taylor and Fuller should all contribute early and any draft that gives you five guys like these is a pretty good one.  There is bust potential however with all of them so the odds are against all of them working out.  Ansah has little experience and is a better athlete than football player.  Slay wasn’t even the best CB on his own college team.  Warford could eat himself out of the league (this is true of most OG’s).  Taylor could be as ineffective as he was in college and Fuller has some holes in his game.  I’m not a big proponent of drafting kickers or punters and I don’t like taking them in the fifth round but when you have a lot of picks and you really like a guy it’s understandable.  I like this draft and I think the Lions will have more hits than misses here.

Green Bay Packers

26. Datone Jones   DE

61. Eddie Lacy   RB

109. David Bakhtiari   OT

122. J.C. Tretter   OG

125. Johnathan Franklin   RB

159. Michah Hyde   DB

167. Josh Boyd   DT

193. Nate Palmer   OLB

216. Charles Johnson   WR

224. Kevin Dorsey   WR

232. Sam Barrington   ILB

Immediate Impact:  DE Datone Jones, RB Eddie Lacy

Jones was the biggest tweener in this draft.  He isn’t fast enough to be a 4-3 DE, he’s too big to be a 3-4 OLB and he’s not big enough to be a 4-3 DT so being a DE in the Packers 3-4 defense should be the perfect fit.  He’ll bring more pass rushing ability than your normal 3-4 DE and they could use it since Clay Matthews is about the only guy that brings consistent pressure.  Jones may have landed in the perfect spot.  Eddie Lacy was thought to be the best back in the draft by many, not by me, but by many.  Lacy brings a whole lot of talent to a backfield that has been yearning for it.  It’s not a coincidence that the Packers took two RB’s in this draft and Lacy is going to get the opportunity to prove he’s the right guy.  He’s big and physical and he should help immensely in short yardage and goal line situations.

Best Value:  RB Johnathan Franklin

Franklin has holes in his game (pass protection for one) but getting the all-time leading rusher at UCLA in fourth round is damn good value.  Franklin knows how to play and he knows how to read a block and follow it.  Lacy gets all the press but Franklin may end up being the better back in the end.  Whether Franklin usurps Lacy or compliments him his value at the 125^th pick is enormous.

Sleeper:  DB Micah Hyde

Call me homer if you want but I’ve spent the last four years watching Micah Hyde develop and he is exactly what the NFL is looking for in the secondary.  Hyde played corner for all but a couple of games in his Hawkeye career and he’s still listed at CB but I think he ends up playing FS and he can compete for playing time in this depth chart.  Green Bay’s safeties are anything but spectacular and Hyde has a lot of experience in coverage and he isn’t afraid to come up in run support.  The current NFL has a trend of really good slot receivers and very talented TE’s and teams need safeties that can cover both yet still be able to tackle.  Hyde has good size, both height and weight, and solid cover skills and there is an opportunity to make some noise in the Packers secondary.

Overall Analysis:

Jones and Lacy come in with the expectation of playing a lot if not starting.  Franklin can be a situational back and I think Hyde competes for playing time.  OT David Bakhtiari has a chance to compete at RT with Marshall Newhouse and Derrick Sherrod since the Packers are moving Bryan Bulaga to LT.  OL J.C. Tretter and DT Josh Boyd are two developmental guys that could be solid back-ups now and turn into something down the road.  I don’t see the rest of the guys making much of an impact on the roster unless they can distinguish themselves as valuable special team’s players for now.  Good team’s rosters are hard to crack for later round players and that’s because the depth has already been built through good drafting.

Minnesota Vikings

23. Sharrif Floyd   DT

25. Xavier Rhodes   CB

29. Corderrelle Patterson   WR

120. Gerald Hodges   LB

155. Jeff Locke   P

196. Jeff Baca   OG

213. Michael Mauti   LB

214. Travis Bond   OG

229. Everett Dawkins   DT

Immediate Impact:  DT Sharrif Floyd, CB Xavier Rhodes, WR Corderrelle Patterson

This is a team that is going for it.  Three first round draft picks that should all have immediate and long lasting impact on this franchise.  Sharrif Floyd should step in and start next to Kevin Williams this year and he will be the future anchor of the line replacing Williams.  Xavier Rhodes steps into fill the shoes of the departed Antoine Winfield and he gives the Vikings a big physical corner to pair with Chris Cook, call it the Seattle Seahawk plan.  Corderrelle Patterson doesn’t have to fill in the entire production of Percy Harvin given that the Vikings signed Greg Jennings to be the #1 WR but Patterson gives the Vikes a player with a skill set closer to Harvin’s and he and Jennings give them two good WR’s instead of just one.  This haul should be enough for the Vikings but they actually got some other pieces too.

Best Value:  LB Gerald Hodges

The Vikings seem to have every intention of moving Erin Henderson from weak side LB to the middle meaning Hodges is going to get every chance to grab the weak side job.  Hodges comes from Penn State, aka Linebacker U, and while he isn’t as heralded as previous alumni Hodges can play.  The Vikings need LB’s and getting a likely starter in the fourth round, especially when you don’t have a second or third rounder, is great value.

Sleeper:  DT Everett Dawkins

I really wanted to give this spot to Michael Mauti the other Penn State linebacker the Vikings drafted.  Mauti was the heart and soul of Penn State’s defense the past couple of years and is a guy you want to cheer for but injuries have taken their toll and I’m not sure how long he can last if he does get a shot to play.  Dawkins could be in a perfect position to sit for a year or two and show the Vikings that when Kevin Williams hangs them up they have a ready-made replacement to start next to Sharrif Floyd.  Dawkins is a quick penetrating DT that is a little undersized but if he puts on a little weight over the next year or two he could be quite the seventh round find.

Overall Analysis:

The Vikings are doing everything they can capitalize on their unexpected success from this past year.  Some may question trading away a playmaker like Harvin for a pick but he had become more trouble than he was worth.  Trading a couple of picks to get back into the end of the first round was bold but I think all three first round picks will make a difference.  The Vikings got lucky that a talent like Floyd fell into their laps but they also made their own luck by still getting the two players they wanted in CB Xavier Rhodes and WR Corderrelle Patterson.  At worst their later picks give them some depth on the offensive line and at linebacker and they may prove to be more than depth at linebacker.  I don’t like drafting punters but the Vikings are going with Locke as their starter so it’s hard to argue with that.

 

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division.  I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.

 

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

32. Matt Elam   SS

56. Arthur Brown   ILB

94. Brandon Williams   DT

129. John Simon   OLB

130. Kyle Juszczyk   FB

168. Ricky Wagner   OT

200.  Kapron Lewis-Moore   DT

203. Ryan Jensen   OT

238. Aaron Mellette   WR

247. Marc Anthony   CB

Immediate Impact:  SS Matt Elam, ILB Arthur Brown

The Super Bowl Champion Ravens went into the draft with two huge holes to fill at safety and linebacker due to the free agent departure of Ed Reed and the retirement of Ray Lewis and Ozzie Newsome came through again.  Elam and Brown are fantastic players that are ready to play right away and they will bring youth and talent to a defense that needs an injection of both.  Before the draft the Ravens were counting on the perpetually injured Jameel McClain and the total head case Rolando McClain to start in the middle of the defense but now they have Brown and he’s a much better bet.  Elam should team with newly signed free agent Michael Huff to form a new duo at the safety position and Elam will make an impact.

Best Value:  ILB Arthur Brown

Most teams devalue the middle or inside linebacker position and Newsome took advantage by waiting and then swooping in and grabbing Brown with the 56^th pick.  The Ravens understand the value on the field of a player with Brown’s skill set and they know how to use him.  Brown’s position was the reason he was available in the second round not his talent.

Sleeper:   OT Ricky Wagner

Maybe this comes from three years of watching Wagner in the Big Ten but I have a hard time believing he won’t stick and at the very least give the Ravens a very solid swing tackle.  The reason he is a sleeper is that he started for two years at LT (and one before that at RT) for one of the best offensive lines in college football and I have little faith in the Ravens OT’s not named Michael Oher.  The team just re-signed Bryant McKinnie but I don’t know if he can hold up for a whole season anymore.  Wagner offers the flexibility to either swing Oher to LT or leave him at RT and play Wagner when McKinnie inevitably breaks down.  Wagner is not impressive in his Under Armour jumping or running but he knows how to block.  He may not be a long term starting solution but I wouldn’t bet against him.

Overall Analysis:

I have a hard time believing the ten draft picks will make the defending Super Bowl Champions but they did grab players at positions they need like WR (Aaron Mellette) CB (Marc Anthony) and offensive line (Wagner and Ryan Jensen) so at least they create competition at the end of their roster.  Ozzie Newsome and his staff are as good at drafting as anyone in the league and Elam and Brown will prove that this year. DT Brandon Williams (round 3), OLB John Simon (round 4) and FB Kyle Juszczyk (round 4) may prove it somewhere down the line.  Hard to argue with the man who just built a Super Bowl winner mostly through the draft.

Cincinnati Bengals

21. Tyler Eifert   TE

37. Giovani Bernard   RB

53. Margus Hunt   DE

84. Shawn Williams   SS

118. Sean Porter   OLB

156. Tanner Hawkinson   OT

190. Rex Burkhead   RB

197. Cobi Hamilton   WR

240. Reid Fragel   OT

251. TJ Johnson   C

Immediate Impact: TE Tyler Eifert, RB Giovani Bernard

The Bengals need someone to take the pressure off of AJ Green in the passing game and Eifert is the best pass catching TE in the draft.  He can dominate on the inside and split out wide when needed.  The Bengals didn’t take a WR until late meaning they plan on giving their picks from last year another chance but it also means they think Eifert will make an impact.  Bernard is simply the best back in this draft (sorry Eddie Lacy) and he fits the new mold of the NFL.  I won’t be the least bit shocked when he’s stealing time from BenJarvus Green-Ellis and he could be the next Ray Rice, he has that sort of skill set.  I haven’t decided who I think will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year but these two certainly are candidates.

Best Value:  SS Shawn Williams

Drafting your starting strong safety with the 84^th pick in the draft is getting pretty good value.  Williams walks into the perfect spot to take the starting job.  He’s an in the box safety that will be slightly more adept in coverage than Taylor Mays which isn’t setting the bar very high but the Bengals will take it.  I don’t think Williams will be making the Pro Bowl anytime soon but he’ll be starting quickly and probably for a while.

Sleeper:  OLB Sean Porter

The Bengals signed James Harrison to be their new OLB but Harrison is no spring chicken and his fit in the Bengals defense is questionable.  Porter did a nice job as a pass rushing OLB in college and while he may look like just a back-up weakside LB I can see him stealing some time on the strongside if Harrison isn’t adequate.

Overall Analysis:

The Bengals also had ten picks and even though they weren’t the Super Bowl Champions like the Ravens I have a hard time seeing all of these players making this team.  That said their first five picks, the four mentioned above and DE Margus Hunt, could give them five guys that can contribute.  Hunt is an interesting player given his sheer size and the Bengals actually have two tall DE’s already in Carlos Dunlop and Michael Johnson so all three together could make throwing lanes harder to find.

Cleveland Browns

6. Barkevious Mingo   OLB

68. Leon McFadden   CB

175. Jamoris Slaughter   SS

217. Armonty Bryant   DE

227. Garrett Gilkey   OT

Immediate Impact:  OLB Barkevious Mingo

There isn’t a lot to choose from here and the Browns better hope Mingo makes an immediate impact because they passed on the draft’s best CB Dee Milliner and took Mingo who didn’t really look like a need.  There has been a lot of talk about the Brown’s plans for Jabaal Sheard (trade him, move him to DE) and that only makes sense if Mingo is ready to be the starter at OLB opposite Paul Kruger.  With Sheard, Kruger and Quentin Groves OLB didn’t look like the place the Browns would go but they went for Mingo’s high upside.  I like Mingo at OLB for a 3-4 team more than I liked him at DE for a 4-3 team but I would have taken Milliner.

Best Value:  Next year’s draft picks

GM Mike Lombardi apparently didn’t think much of this draft which is why he only used five picks this year but he did something that may pay off in the end.  He traded a 2013 fourth round pick for a 2014 third round pick and a 2013 fifth round pick for a 2014 fourth round pick.  Yep, he upgraded two picks this year to better rounds next year in a draft that most believe will be better than this year’s draft.  Lombardi didn’t take a QB from this year’s less than stellar crop opting to put the team in the hands of Brandon Weeden or Jason Campbell and yet he grabbed some ammunition. Now if they aren’t picking high enough next year to grab a QB he likes he can go up and get one.  Next year’s QB crop has the chance to be far superior to this year’s and Lombardi is obviously taking the long view at the position.

Sleeper: CB Leon McFadden

It’s tough to call a guy that is so obviously going to start a sleeper but I don’t see anyone else in this very small draft class making any noise.  McFadden was a third round pick and you can argue better CB’s were on the board (I like Logan Ryan and Blidi Wreh-Wilson myself) but he was a third round value like them and the Browns have no one opposite Joe Haden.

Overall Analysis:

I understand what the Browns are trying to do grabbing Mingo in the first round.  New defensive coordinator Ray Horton needs playmakers and Mingo has a high upside but he also has really high bust potential.  Hindsight is always 20/20 but here’s the reason I don’t think you pass on the best player at his position (CB Dee Milliner) when you need that position too.  The Browns ended up with Mingo and McFadden as potential starters on their defense but they could have had Milliner at CB and either Damontre Moore (who went #81), Corey Lemonier (#88) or Sam Montgomery (#95) at OLB and I like any of those combinations better.

Pittsburgh Steelers

17. Jarvis Jones   OLB

48. LeVeon Bell   RB

79. Markus Wheaton   WR

111. Shamarko Thomas   SS

115. Landry Jones   QB

150. Terry Hawthorne   CB

186. Justin Brown   WR

206. Vince Williams   ILB

223. Nicholas Williams   DT

Immediate Impact:  OLB Jarvis Jones

Okay so I gushed over this guy in my mock drafts and my initial analysis and that will continue here.  One of my picks for Co-defensive rookie of the year Jones steps immediately into the OLB spot vacated by James Harrison (sorry Jason Worilds you will continue to be a back-up).  Jones couldn’t be a more natural fit for this attacking 3-4 defense and he’s going to be a double digit sack man without a doubt.  I still cannot believe Jones fell to 17^th pick and the Steelers got this lucky.

Best Value:  OLB Jarvis Jones (seriously it’s crazy), WR Markus Wheaton, QB Landry Jones

If there is one thing the Steelers did as well if not better than everyone was get value at their picks.  Arguably their first five picks were great value. Jarvis Jones never should have fallen to 17^th (okay I’m done).  Markus Wheaton will step in right away in their three WR sets and he won’t miss a beat and Landry Jones lasted until the fourth round.  Landry Jones is a guy that could develop into a starter in the NFL at some point and the Steelers needed some new young blood behind Roethlisberger because he is bound to miss a game or two and Charlie Batch can’t play forever.

Sleeper:  WR Markus Wheaton

Wheaton is a lot like Mike Wallace in stature and playing style.  Wheaton is also a natural WR with instincts.  He can step into Wallace’s role and that means Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders can continue to develop in the roles they have been in.  Brown and Sanders are ready to step in as starters but Wheaton’s presence means they don’t have to change to Wallace’s position in the three WR sets.  Wheaton is a dark horse to have a really good year if he develops a rapport with Roethlisberger.

Overall Analysis:

It is drafts like this that are the reason the Steelers are always good.  Jarvis Jones is an instant impact starter. LeVeon Bell is an immediate replacement for Mendenhall.  Wheaton can step into Mike Wallace’s place and allow Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders to continue to develop. Shamarko Thomas can give Polamalu a breather and eventually replace him one day.  Landry Jones is a developmental QB who can spot start when Big Ben is injured and even CB Terry Hawthorne could surprise if he can stay healthy as he fits the Steelers preference at CB.  One of the best run organizations in football just keeps chugging along.

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division.  I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

31.  Travis Frederick   C

47.  Gavin Escobar   TE

74.  Terrence Williams   WR

80.  JJ Wilcox   SS

114.  B.W. Webb   CB

151.  Joseph Randle   RB

185.  DeVonte Holloman   OLB

Immediate Impact:  C Travis Frederick

I had the same reaction as most people when Travis Frederick was drafted in the first round.  What?  Don’t get me wrong Travis Frederick is going to start at center from day one so his impact will be immediate but this is not a value pick.  The fact that Frederick will start right away says more about the Cowboys lack of talent on the offensive line than it does about him.

Best Value:  WR Terrence Williams

Williams is a fantastic talent and he has caught a lot of balls over the past few years at Baylor.  He’s got good size and a lot of experience so he should transition quickly to the NFL and he had the potential to be a first round pick so getting him in the third round was great value.  If Miles Austin’s injury setbacks continue Williams offers the Cowboys someone who can line up opposite of Dez Bryant and give them a real threat.

Sleeper:  RB Joseph Randle

He isn’t the biggest or the fastest guy but he gets the job done.  I really like Randle and as a fifth round pick I absolutely love Randle.  DeMarco Murray is the starter but as we all know the likelihood of him completing a season healthy is not good.  Randle is the type of back that doesn’t wow you in a workout but when you watch him play he is always getting yards and keeping the chains moving.

Overall Analysis:

Frederick wasn’t rated as a first rounder and was barely a second round guy.  The next center to go off the board was Brian Schwenke in the fourth round and he would start right away for the Cowboys too.  The defenders of this pick say that if you get starter in the first round that’s a good thing but here’s why it isn’t.  The Cowboys could have gotten Frederick with their second round pick which means they could have used their first rounder on someone like SS Matt Elam or OT Menelik Watson.  If they had drafted either of those two plus Frederick that would be two new starters instead of one and if Frederick had somehow gone off the board before their second round pick they could have taken Brian Schwenke later and still ended up with a starting center.  The reason you don’t reach for a player is that if you can get that player or an equivalent player later than you hurt your overall team depth by not taking the best player.  I do like the Gavin Escobar pick because he’s good and Jason Witten can’t play forever.  Terrence Williams, B.W. Webb and Joseph Randle were all good picks and good value.  My major concern overall with this draft is that the Cowboys needed help on the offensive and defensive line and they only got Travis Frederick.  One offensive lineman and no defensive linemen is a curious move for this team.

New York Giants:

19.  Justin Pugh   OT

49.  Jonathan Hankins   DT

81.  Damontre Moore   DE

110.  Ryan Nassib   QB

152.  Cooper Taylor   SS

225.  Eric Herman   OG

253.  Michael Cox   RB

Immediate Impact:  OT Justin Pugh

The early run on offensive linemen at the top of the draft pushed the value of a few players up namely Pugh and Kyle Long who were drafted back-to-back.  I’m not a huge fan of Pugh as I didn’t see him standing out as a first round talent.  However, the Giants need help on the offensive line and even if Pugh can’t win a job at OT he could win a spot at OG.  The Giants envision him at OT and while he may be better suited for OG this team did start David Diehl at LT for many years so Pugh has a shot with this team.

Best Value:  DE Damontre Moore

I can’t believe the rest of the NFL allowed the Giants to draft a guy with this much natural pass rush ability.  If there is one place Moore can shine it is with the Giants.  They will teach him and use him in exactly the right manner as to get the absolute best performance out of him.  Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and even Mathias Kiwanuka are proof that the Giants know what they are doing when it comes to pass rushers.

Sleeper:  DT Jonathan Hankins

The only sure thing for the Giants at DT is Linval Joseph as the rest of the depth chart is old, unproven or in flux.  Hankins is a beast of a human being and if they can motivate him to play every down his natural talent will win out over just about anyone.  It is tough to call a second rounder a sleeper but if the Giants can wake him up, so to speak, they will have one more dominate defensive lineman on their hands.

Overall Analysis:

Justin Pugh was drafted too high in my opinion but he meets a serious need and he wouldn’t have been around in the second round for the Giants.  Hankins and Moore were both drafted a round lower than they could have gone so again the Giants do well drafting defensive lineman.  QB Ryan Nassib is nowhere near a need but in the fourth round he was just too much value for them to pass on and even if he never plays a down he is at worst trade bait down the line so the Giants basically drafted a pick in a future draft and they will probably get better than a fourth rounder for him.  My concerns with this draft are that the Giants LB corps isn’t exactly stacked and they didn’t draft a single one and they have had major injury concerns over the past several years at CB and they didn’t get any depth there either.

Philadelphia Eagles

4.  Lane Johnson   OT

35.  Zach Ertz   TE

67.  Bennie Logan   DT

98.  Matt Barkley   QB

136.  Earl Wolff   SS

212.  Joe Kruger   DE

218.  Jordan Poyer   CB

239.  David King   DE

Immediate Impact:  OT Lane Johnson, TE Zach Ertz

Lane Johnson steps in at OT and that should move Todd Herremans back inside to OG, one pick upgrades two spots on the line that is having an immediate impact.  Zach Ertz can be paired with Brent Celek to give Chip Kelly’s offense a nice two TE set.

Best Value:  QB Matt Barkley

I said throughout the draft process that there were no quarterbacks worth a first round pick and people assumed that meant I didn’t like any of the quarterbacks but that simply isn’t true.  I think Barkley has the best chance of being an eventual starter in the NFL but he isn’t going to be ready right away.  However, getting him in the fourth round might be the steal of decade especially for Chip Kelly.  Everyone assumes Kelly needs a mobile QB (even I thought EJ Manuel was his guy) but that isn’t necessarily true.  More importantly for Kelly’s offense is the pace of the offense, getting as many plays in as possible.  Barkley started for four years in a pro-style offense at USC so there isn’t going to be much Kelly can ask that Barkley can’t process.

Sleeper:  CB Jordan Poyer

I easily could have picked Bennie Logan but somehow the Eagles got Poyer in the seventh round of this draft.  I don’t know what happened to drop his value but he was a second or third round talent leading up to the draft.  Kelly knows Poyer from their college days at Oregon and Oregon St. respectively so he knows exactly the type of talent he’s getting.

Overall Analysis:

No one knew exactly what the Eagles were going to do with Chip Kelly as their coach and a new front office structure in place but this draft looks pretty good on paper.  Johnson, Ertz and Bennie Logan will either start or see significant action early and Poyer has a shot to get playing time at CB given the depth chart.  Matt Barkley is in a position to sit and learn if necessary but don’t be surprised if he sees action.  Kelly knows Barkley far better than he knows Michael Vick and Kelly actually knows Nick Foles and Dennis Dixon better too so anything is possible at QB.  The Eagles could use help at SS so Earl Wolff should stick and even Kruger and King can make this team if they prove to be good fits in the new 3-4 defense the Eagles are installing.  This could turn out to be an excellent draft.

Washington Redskins: 

51.  David Amerson   CB

85.  Jordan Reed   TE

119.  Phillip Thomas   FS

154.  Chris Thompson   RB

162.  Brandon Jenkins   DE/OLB

191.  Baccari Rambo   FS

228.  Jawan Jamison   RB

Immediate Impact:  CB David Amerson, FS Phillip Thomas

The Redskins had 21 interceptions as a team last year but more than half of those came from their LB corps.  Amerson and Thomas were ball hawks in college and they should help the secondary become better at takeaways.  Amerson adds some much needed size to the CB depth chart and Thomas brings ball skills to the safety spot.  These two add youth and athleticism to a defensive secondary that is lacking in both.

Best Value:  OLB Brandon Jenkins

This one comes with a caveat; Jenkins’ foot has to be healed up so he can be himself.  Going into last year Brandon Jenkins was the big name DE at Florida St. not Bjoern Werner or Tank Carradine but a foot injury ended his season before it could begin and he became a forgotten man.  His size, athletic ability and skill set make him a great fit at OLB in the Redskins 3-4 defense and he should become a nice situational rusher to complement Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan.

Sleeper:  RB Chris Thompson

Thompson had some durability issues at Florida St. that never allowed him to be the full-time go-to back for the Seminoles but he brings a skillset the Redskins don’t currently have in the back field.  The Redskins found their every down back last year in Alfred Morris but Thompson brings a smaller shiftier back type of presence.  His foot speed and acceleration make a contrast to Morris and make a different type of weapon for RGIII to utilize in the run game and the passing game.

Overall Analysis:

Considering the Redskins didn’t have a 1^st round pick in this draft, after trading it away to get RGIII last year, they did a pretty good job of getting guys that could impact their team.  Amerson, Thomas and Jenkins should all contribute on defense and Thompson has a chance to be an offensive weapon.  TE Jordan Reed is a good pick up and depending on the health of Fred Davis Reed could be a big pick up.  Reed is athletic and talented but not the most experienced TE in the draft.  The Redskins may have found themselves a future gem in Reed and he may become RGIII’s favorite safety valve.  Rambo and Jamison seem like redundant picks considering the selection of both a FS and a RB in earlier rounds but the Redskins need youth and depth after years of bad drafts and free agent spending left their roster aging.  My only concern with this draft is that while Reed and Thompson could be offensive weapons where is the help at WR for RGIII.  Both Terrence Williams and Keenan Allen were available when the Redskins picked in the second round and even Stedman Bailey and Quinton Patton were available later and any of them would have helped the WR corps around RGIII.  The Redskins still won’t have a 1^st round pick next year (yep they gave that one up for RGIII too) so they better hope some good WR’s are available after that next year, Santana Moss can’t play for forever.

 

 

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division.  I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

16. EJ Manuel   QB

41. Robert Woods   WR

46.  Kiko Alonso   ILB

78.  Marquise Goodwin   WR

105.  Duke Williams   SS

143.  Jonathan Meeks   SS

177.  Dustin Hopkins   K

222.  Chris Gragg   TE

Immediate Impact:  WR Robert Woods

Woods is a fantastic talent and the Bills need another receiver opposite Stevie Johnson.  Woods is a great route runner and he will take a lot of pressure off of Johnson and give the Bills the first legitimate #2 WR they have had in quite a while.

Best Value:  WR Robert Woods

Woods could have easily gone in the first round and the Bills got him #41 overall.  He’s ready to contribute from day one and that is great value in the second round.

Sleeper:  WR Marquise Goodwin

Goodwin is the track star out of Texas that could be a scary weapon out of the slot receiver position.  Whether it is Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel lining up at QB having Johnson, Woods and Goodwin means the QB will have some weapons at WR.

Overall Analysis: 

EJ Manuel going #16 overall in the first round was the first real surprise of the draft and this was GM Buddy Nix shooting for the moon.  Manuel has all the physical talent you want in a QB the question is whether or not he can translate that to the field in the NFL.  The good news is that Kevin Kolb is there so Manuel shouldn’t be rushed the bad news is Manuel may be rushed because Kevin Kolb is all that is there.  Kiko Alonso has the inside track on a starting spot at ILB and Duke Williams may surprise and line up with Jarius Byrd at safety before you know it.  My biggest question with this draft is where are the offensive linemen?  The loss of Andy Levitre is big and the right side of the line could have used help too and they didn’t select a single one.

 

Miami Dolphins

3.  Dion Jordan   DE/OLB

54.  Jamar Taylor   CB

77.  Dallas Thomas   OL

93.  Will Davis   CB

104.  Jelani Jenkins   ILB

106.   Dion Sims   TE

164.  Mike Gillislee   RB

166.  Caleb Sturgis   K

250.  Don Jones   SS

Immediate Impact:  DE/OLB Dion Jordan; CB Jamar Taylor

The Dolphins better hope that Jordan gives them the pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake that they are hoping for because they traded up to #3 and passed on OT Lane Johnson to take him.  They have a big hole at LT that Johnson could have filled but they are betting on Jordan being an impact player.  CB Jamar Taylor steps in immediately to fill the hole created by the departure of Sean Smith and he will be a good one.

Best Value:  CB Jamar Taylor

Getting a starting CB in the second round with the 54^th pick is the definition of value.

Sleeper:  ILB Jelani Jenkins; TE Dion Sims

Jenkins is a good ILB with coverage skills so he could make some noise in sub packages.  The Dolphins TE position is thin and newly signed starter Dustin Keller is not known for his blocking.  Sims has always been a tease with his big body and soft hands and if the coaching staff can get him to live up to his potential he can do it all.  He is a big guy that should be a good blocker and he should be a threat down the middle.

Overall Analysis:

The Dolphins are taking their shot at improving their defense by adding Jordan, Taylor and CB Will Davis along with their free agent signings.  Jordan should bring the pass rush and Taylor and Davis should improve their coverage.  My concern is with only the addition of Dallas Thomas at offensive line who takes over at LT for Jake Long.  They can try Thomas there but entrusting the blindside protection of franchise QB Ryan Tannehill to a rookie that is probably better served playing guard is a frightening proposition.  They could try Thomas on the right side and slide Jonathan Martin to LT like last year when Long was hurt but that is still asking Thomas to play tackle.  The best course of action now looks like playing Martin at LT, letting Thomas fight for playing time at guard and signing a veteran free agent like Eric Winston to man the right side.

 

New England Patriots

52.  Jamie Collins   OLB

59.  Aaron Dobson   WR

83.  Logan Ryan   CB

91.  Duron Harmon   SS

102.  Josh Boyce   WR

226.  Michael Buchanan   DE/OLB

235.   Steve Beauharnais   ILB

Immediate Impact:  WR Aaron Dobson

The Patriots better hope that Dobson is an immediate impact WR because they need an outside threat after releasing Brandon Lloyd.  Danny Amendola should be the replacement for Wes Welker and Amendola can do some things on the outside but he is needed in the slot.  Dobson is a big WR from Marshall and hopefully he breaks the streak of bad WR picks the Patriots have been on for quite some time.

Best Value:  CB Logan Ryan

This kid can play.  He lacks top end speed but he could be a very good corner in Bill Belichick’s defense.  The Patriots need help at CB and Ryan has starter potential that they drafted in the third round.

Sleeper:  WR Josh Boyce

The Patriots have a big need at WR and even though Dobson is the big outside guy they need Boyce could come in and make some noise.

Overall Analysis:

Collins is an edge rusher that Belichick will figure out how to use and he can definitely help the pass rush.  Hopefully the improved pass rush will help the secondary along with the addition of Ryan.  The Duron Harmon pick was universally panned and I have to agree there were some good safeties still on the board (Shamarko Thomas, Duke Williams) and Harmon wasn’t expected to go in the third round.

 

New York Jets

9.  Dee Milliner   CB

13.  Sheldon Richardson   DT

39.  Geno Smith   QB

72.  Brian Winters   OG

141.  Oday Aboushi   OT

178.  William Campbell   DT

215.  Tommy Bohanon   FB

Immediate Impact:  CB Dee Milliner

Milliner is the best CB in the draft and he gets to replace the best CB in the league.  No pressure kid.  Milliner allows Kyle Wilson to stay inside covering the slot and that will make him valuable to the Jets defense.

Best Value:  QB Geno Smith

I’m not a big fan of Geno Smith but when you get a starting QB at pick #39 you are getting pretty good value.  Say what you want about the Jets QB situation but Smith will be the guy at some point and my money is on sooner rather than later.  Tim Tebow has already been shown the door and if the Jets have any sense of mercy Mark Sanchez will not be far behind.

Sleeper:  OG Brian Winters

Winters is a third round pick and he probably will end up starting.  Guards don’t get a lot of credit but teams know their value.  It’s hard to see a third round guard making a huge difference but if he becomes a starter that’s a great get.

Overall Analysis:

I love Sheldon Richardson as a player but I don’t like him on this team, with this defense, I just don’t see it working very well.  Maybe he will have a bigger impact next year when a new coaching staff is brought in and they switch to a 4-3 defense where his skills will be better utilized.  No I don’t have a lot of faith that Rex Ryan is going to get this thing turned around and if he doesn’t it is total rebuilding mode time and that starts with a new coaching staff.  Aboushi could possibly help since the Jets’ RT’s are nothing to write home about and he could potentially steal that job.  They got Smith where he should have gone, in the second round, so that’s good value and Milliner and Richardson are very talented players.

 

 

 

My First Round Initial Thoughts

• Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel going 1 and 2 is not too surprising.  Pretty equal in terms of grades and yes the Jaguars do need another tackle.
• The Dolphins make a leap up the draft board which had everyone on the NFL Network set convinced they were coming up for Lane Johnson and then…Dion Jordan.  Jared Odrick isn’t cut out to be a 4-3 DE and Jordan gives Cameron Wake a lot of help.  I really don’t want to like this move but they only gave up a second round pick (they have another one) to move up 9 spots to take a shot on Jordan.  They needed Johnson more but if they make the Branden Albert trade they could be much improved next year.
• If you don’t think the NFL is a passing league look at this; first 6 picks= 3 pass blocker, 3 pass rushers.   And no RB’s in the first round since the 1960’s.
• Dee Milliner falls to the Jets at #9.  I was really hoping the Jets would blow this pick but I really like Milliner.  Luckily the Jets had another pick for me to root against.
• I underestimated the offensive linemen in this draft by a spot.  I said six OL could go in the first 12 picks and they went in the first 11.  Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Cooper, Warmack and Fluker all went.  Glad I made some predictions outside of my mock draft because I went 0-32.  Although outside of some people predicting the Fisher/Joeckel 1-2 thing this draft did not go according to most predictions.
• Another prediction I was right about was the late rising player.  DJ Hayden went to the Raiders #12 overall after they traded down.  Reggie McKenzie got the player he wanted at a spot where he was valued and picked up a pick, he is the anti-Al Davis.
• The Jets had a chance to take one of the two top DT in the draft, Star Lotulelei or Sharrif Floyd, either of whom would have fit their defensive scheme very well.  Instead they selected the 3^rd best DT in the draft Sheldon Richardson.  I like Richardson and the #13 pick is about where he was projected but he isn’t a great schematic fit and there were better players at that position on the board.  Thank you Jets now I’m not so pissed about the Milliner pick.
• The Buffalo Bills had traded down from the 8^th pick (good move there was no one there they wanted) and with the 16^th pick they took their QB of the future (or present)…EJ Manuel.  That groan you hear is a collective groan from Geno Smith (“I’m not the first QB off the board?”), Ryan Nassib (“My college coach picked a different QB?”), Chip Kelly (“damn it I don’t want anybody else”) and finally EJ Manuel (“Not the Bills…”).  This was a little high for Manuel but I give the Bills credit, they traded down and Buddy Nix took a shot.  Manuel is probably the biggest boom or bust QB in the draft (Tyler Bray is a close second but he was never in the 1^st round conversation) and unfortunately he goes to a Bills team whose recent track record with QB’s is atrocious.  Good Luck EJ.
• Jarvis Jones goes the Pittsburgh Steelers…ladies and gentlemen your 2013 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year…hold that thought someone else is going to make a play for that honor in minute…
• The San Francisco 49ers trade up into the Cowboys spot to get S Eric Reid from LSU.  Reid’s draft stock has been up and down like a yo-yo.  He’s pretty good and he’s a very solid replacement for Dashon Goldson.
• Back-to-back offensive linemen; Justin Pugh to the Giants and Kyle Long to the Bears.  Pugh is listed as an OT but might be better suited to guard which is perfect for the Giants because they have made a habit out of turning decent O-linemen into a good unit.  Kyle Long is listed as a Guard but I think they should give him a shot at RT.  He has the athleticism and the demeanor you want at RT.
• Cincinnati took Tyler Eifert…he had to go somewhere…Andy Dalton should be happy.
• The Atlanta Falcons make a move and now my Defensive Rookie of the Year just became my Co-Defensive Rookies of the Year.  Atlanta gets the best cover corner in the draft Desmond Trufant and he instantly becomes a starter on a damn good playoff team.  Sorry Jarvis you are going to have to share that award.
• Sharrif Floyd’s nightmare evening ends as the Minnesota Vikings dream draft begins.   Floyd was widely considered a top 5 talent and no worse than top 10 yet he slides to #23 and the Vikings pounce.  Maybe someday we will know the story why Floyd dropped and while I haven’t been his biggest fan he is serious value here.  The Vikings defensive line just got scary good and the Vikings have Kevin Williams’ eventual replacement.  Their dream continued at #25 when one of the better and more physical CB’s Xavier Rhodes fell into their laps.  A top 15 talent at #25 is fantastic.  Then the Vikings made a bold move and traded back into the end of the first round at #29 and took one of the top WR’s in the draft Corderrelle Patterson from Tennessee.  Pairing Patterson with Greg Jennings means Christian Ponder has no excuses.
• The Texans came the closest to giving me a correct pick in the first round, I had them taking WR Keenan Allen and they took WR DeAndre Hopkins.  So close…I can’t take credit though because everyone had them taking a WR.
• The Patriots proved one of my other predictions half right.  The Pats traded out of the first round but if wasn’t so a team could come back in for a QB it was for the Vikings bold move for a WR.  Is it bad that I was actually hoping my favorite team would trade out of the first round because I was afraid they would draft either a CB or WR that would suck?  I think it means I care because I don’t want them to do anything to hurt themselves.
• St. Louis made some moves.  They traded up early to get Tavon Austin and they did it because they loved Austin and they had the ammunition to do it and they didn’t give up their other 1st rounder.  They traded down with their later pick and ended up taking Alec Ogletree 30^th overall.  Ogletree is a million dollar talent that needs to keep his head on straight.  He’s extremely athletic and can play any of the Rams LB spots but the best thing for him is he is going to a team with a veteran head coach (Jeff Fisher) and some very strong leaders that are good people on defense (James Laurinaitis and Chris Long).
• The Big Ten did not get shut of the first round like many were predicting.  The Dallas Cowboys had traded down to San Francisco’s spot at #31 and they obliged the Big Ten with a pick.  Jonathan Hankins and Kawann Short, the two DT out of the Big Ten were seen as the most likely guys to save the conference and the Cowboys certainly need DT’s so it was a natural fit when Jerry Jones phoned in the pick.  When Roger Goodell said “With the 31^st pick in the 2013 draft the Dallas Cowboys select Travis Frederick, center, University of Wisconsin” my chin nearly hit the floor.  Jones is creeping in on Al Davis territory.  Frederick is a perfectly nice center but perfectly nice centers go at the end of the 3^rd round not the end of the first.  Thanks Jerry at least the Big Ten had a first round pick but couldn’t you have at least made it a defensible one.
• The Ravens ended the first round with SS Matt Elam from Florida.  I told you they weren’t going to go ILB in the first round and let me explain why.  MLB or ILB is not a premium position in the NFL, more proof it’s a passing league.  LB’s that can only play two downs (i.e. Manti Te’o, Kevin Minter) don’t have the value of other positions.  The only inside or middle LB to go in the first round was Alec Ogletree to the Rams at #30 and he isn’t going to play MLB in St. Louis.  He got drafted because he is a three down LB.
• The Names that didn’t get picked.  Manti Te’o was the hot top on the NFL Network set and every time the Vikings drafted (and the picked 3 times) everybody kept saying “here goes Te’o” but he never did…why?  Let me say it again… Two down LB.  Geno Smith sat in the green room all night and never heard his name called.  Apparently 31 teams in the NFL realized what we all knew, there were no 1^st round worthy QB’s in this draft…I guess Buddy Nix didn’t get that memo.  I was wrong about the late 1^st round QB run and I’m glad I was because it means teams are at least as smart as I am.  By the way on Friday night (rounds 2&3) I expect to hear the names Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray and possibly Landry Jones all get called.  Too many teams need QB’s.
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have the first pick of the second round and while they could still draft Damontre Moore like I suggested in my mock draft I wouldn’t be shocked if Matt Barkley is their pick.