It’s time to move on from the depressing subject that is the Iowa Hawkeye football program and focus on my favorite sporting event of the year the NFL Draft.  I’ve spent a lot of time looking at a lot of prospects and I’m going to rank my top 5 or top 10 or top 12 (depending on position) and give you a little preview of what to expect in the draft.  Some positions are deep (WRs and pass rushers) and some are not (QB, TE and Safety).  There are players that will rise and players that will fall after the combine due to a number of reasons and yes I’ll watch as much of the combine as I can.  I’m hoping to go to the NFL Draft this year in Chicago but we will see if I can get tickets and/or anyone to go with me.  I’m accepting volunteers if you’re interested.

Quarterbacks

If you want to compete for a Super Bowl in the NFL you have to have a QB and if you don’t believe me just look at the list of QB’s for the final eight teams in the playoffs this season; Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco and Cam Newton.  Unfortunately for so many teams that are still searching for answers at the league’s most important position this draft doesn’t offer a lot of help and the help it does offer has lots of question marks.  I was going to rank the top 10 QB’s in this draft but I can’t find that many to rank so I’m going with the top 5 instead.  There are two likely first round picks, one that might sneak into the first round but should probably go in the second and then no one else should go before the fourth round but given the sheer number of teams that need to address the position some of these guys and many other could get drafted way too high.  By my estimation four teams need to immediately address the position (Tampa Bay, NY Jets, St. Louis and Houston), four teams are crossing their fingers that someone already on the roster is the answer (Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger, Washington with Robert Griffin III, Cleveland with Johnny Manziel and Buffalo with EJ Manuel). Two teams that have to address the fact that they have aging QBs with no legitimate heir apparent (New Orleans with Drew Brees and Arizona with Carson Palmer) and three teams hoping their guys bounce back but they may want to hedge their bets (Chicago, San Francisco and Philadelphia).  Cutler and Kaepernick regressed last year and are hoping that coaching changes solve their issues while Chip Kelly is hoping that either Nick Foles recovers from his injury and regains his form or that he can swing a trade for his former Oregon QB Marcus Mariota.  By my count that’s 13 teams looking for QB help and most of them are going to be extremely disappointed by this draft.  Here are my rankings for now.

1. Marcus Mariota   Jr.   Oregon

I know the bloom is off the Mariota rose at the moment and everyone is jumping on the Jameis Winston bandwagon for the #1 pick and it may very well turn out that way but I’m not a big believer in either of these two as a franchise QB.  Mariota had a rough National Championship game against Ohio St. and they exposed some flaws in his game but he is still a pretty good QB with some exceptional physical gifts and great character.  Winston has the better arm and he’s clearly the physical specimen NFL teams look for but Mariota has a lot of game experience, his arm is good enough and the odds of him ending up in jail are far lower than those of Winston.  Mariota has to work on his accuracy throwing NFL routes and that’s going to be difficult given the fact he is dealing with a shoulder injury that occurred during the Ohio St. game.  His fall on draft boards has already begun and if he can’t throw until later in the scouting process that fall will continue but for his sake that might be a good thing.  Rumors are swirling that Chip Kelly wants to make a play for his former college QB and that would be almost impossible if Mariota was going to go in the top 5.  Philadelphia has the 20^th pick in the draft and while they could couple it with Nick Foles that doesn’t vault them into the top 5.  If they don’t want to mortgage their future by giving up multiple #1 picks in the future (and just ask the Redskins how that turned out for them) they better hope Mariota drops closer to #10.  No one questions Mariota’s character and everyone agrees he’s the type of guy you want leading your franchise but production on the field is still the primary focus.

2. Jameis Winston   Redshirt Sophomore   Florida St.

Whether it’s Tampa Bay at #1, Tennessee at #2 or someone like the NY Jets at #6 someone is going to roll the dice on Winston and it will probably be fairly early in the draft.  Winston is the ultimate boom or bust pick.  He has every physical tool you could want in a QB at 6’4 230 lbs. with a rocket arm, mobility and pocket awareness.  The problem is that his scouting report is going to have more red flags than Arlington National Cemetery has American flags on Memorial Day.  Winston has been accused of sexual assault; something the NFL certainly can’t turn a blind eye towards given recent history, he was caught shoplifting and admitted to it (using a myriad of lame excuses).  He was questioned by police about someone shooting out windows with a BB gun and he was accused of stealing soda at a Burger King.  Obviously the last three incidents wouldn’t be a big deal but couple them with the more serious accusation of sexual assault and teams may form a picture of the type of guy Winston is and that may be hard to break.  Johnny Manziel’s less than stellar year with Cleveland will give many teams pause in evaluating Winston.  Even if teams believe Winston isn’t guilty of the sexual assault allegations there is still a picture of an immature kid that isn’t ready to be the face of a franchise.  Winston’s teammates seem to love him and he checks all the boxes on the scouting report but as far as being a #1 overall pick he is the equivalent of buying a Powerball ticket.

3. Brett Hundley   Jr.   UCLA

Hundley will probably be the biggest beneficiary of the total lack of quality QBs in this draft.  Couple that with at least eight teams looking for solutions sooner rather than later and he might just jump into the first round.  Mariota and Winston are likely high first round picks Hundley probably should be a second round choice, however, while the drop-off from Mariota/Winston to Hundley is a step the drop-off from Hundley to the #4 QB is a cliff.  Teams that miss out on the top two guys may look to jump back into the end of the first round and grab Hundley before he makes it to where those QB needy teams sit early in the second round.  Hundley played a lot of games at UCLA and while he has experience he is not a finished product.  He is athletic with a good arm and brings loads of potential but he is far from a sure thing.  If Mariota and Winston sit out the scouting combine like most top QB prospects do Hundley could make some noise with a good day throwing.  He isn’t the elite athlete Mariota is and he doesn’t quite have the size or arm of Winston but Hundley might be the safer choice than both of them.  Mariota may have been a product of Oregon’s offense and Winston may be a time bomb waiting to go off.  Hundley ran a system at UCLA that would allow him to transition easier than Mariota and he doesn’t have Winston’s checkered history.

4. Bryce Petty   Sr.   Baylor

Let’s get something straight about Petty right off the bat, he is better than being some “product of the system” at Baylor and he’s a solid QB prospect, however, being in that system at Baylor may have dulled some of his skills that he would need to be a top NFL starter.  It will certainly take some time for him to get used to taking the snap from center given that that never happens in Baylor’s offense.  The Baylor offense is designed to create mismatches and make reads very easy and Petty did it well but the NFL is a whole new ballgame.  Petty has good size and better athleticism than you might expect but he didn’t have to make a lot of NFL throws in college.  Someone might take him in the late second round or early third if they panic but he’s probably a fourth rounder at best.

5. Umm….well…give me a minute….still thinking…hold on…let me check something.

So here are the names of the three other draftable prospects at QB; Colorado St.’s Garrett Grayson, East Carolina’s Shane Carden and Oregon St.’s Sean Mannion.  Grayson has his supporters and at times he looks like he could actually be something but other times he looks rough.  He reminds me a little bit of Tony Romo when he just entered the league.  Romo needed a lot of coaching and he took it all in and made himself an NFL starting QB.  Grayson isn’t big at 6’2 and he doesn’t have a rocket arm but he can move around, keep his eyes down field and make a play.  Under the right QB coach he could be an NFL starter in 3-4 years.  Carden came up big from time to time at East Carolina but I just don’t see the arm or the awareness to become an NFL starter.  He looks like a solid back-up prospect but that’s about all.  Mannion is a bit of a disappointment as he went into the season as a guy that really could have risen up the draft boards but he just didn’t develop.  He’s 6’6 and almost 230 lbs. so he certainly looks the part and he’s been compared to Tampa Bay’s Mike Glennon and I’m still not sure if that’s a complement or not.  Mannion played for Mike Riley at Oregon St. so his transition to a pro-style offense should be seamless, that’s a big advantage for him.  Someone might find a steal in the fourth or fifth round but anything higher than that is pushing it.

Drafting anyone outside of these seven players at QB and that team is simply drafting a practice squad player.  Taking a flyer on Alabama’s Blake Sims, Washington St.’s Connor Halliday or Southeast Louisiana’s Bryan Bennett is just spending a draft pick hoping for a miracle.

Next year’s class:  One of the main reasons why this year’s class is so thin was that even though  Mariota, Winston and Hundley came out early several underclassmen that could have provided depth decided to return for next year and try to improve their draft stock.  Michigan St.’s Connor Cook, TCU’s Trevone Boykin, USC’s Cody Kessler, Ohio St.’s Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller and Stanford’s Kevin Hogan were all potential early entrants that chose to return to college.  They join Penn St.’s Christian Hackenberg (not eligible for 2015) to make what could be a very nice QB class next year.  The early money would be on Cook and Hackenberg to be the top QB because they fit the NFL mold best while Boykin and Jones offer superior athleticism (assuming Jones can beat out JT Barrett and/or Miller, that’s not a given).  Kessler had a great junior year at USC and he’ll have to repeat it with most of his skill position talent gone.  Hogan is hoping to rebound from a less than stellar season and my early dark horse NFL prospect no one is talking about is Indiana’s Nate Sudfeld, he fits the NFL profile he just plays on a lousy team.

So I’ve been spending most of my time lately on NFL Draft stuff, yes I’m in draft mode, but I still pay attention to Iowa Hawkeye recruiting pretty closely and I was hoping for an uplifting feeling after what has most certainly been a less than stellar year.  I was feeling really good after watching my beloved Patriots play win one of the best Super Bowl games I’ve ever seen.  This Hawkeye recruiting class brought me down a bit but I can always find the silver lining even when the Hawkeyes only out recruited Purdue in the Big Ten.  Yep, in a conference called the Big TEN Iowa had the 13th best recruiting class according to Rivals (other sites were slightly more generous ranking Iowa 12th).  Yes that means Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and Rutgers all out did Iowa.  I don’t want this to turn into a Ferentz/Davis bashing post again (I think I’ve covered that) but I can’t promise not to throw out the occasional shot at either one of them or both.

The Good News (I’m trying to start off on a positive note)

The Offensive Line Recruits  (OC James Daniels, OT Levi Paulsen, OL Landan Paulsen, OL Brett Waechter and possibly OG Jacob Newborg)

The top recruit in the class is 4 star OC James Daniels the younger brother of Hawkeye RB LeShun Daniels from Ohio.  Daniels is arguably the best pure center in the country and Iowa beat out Ohio St. (his father’s alma mater and home state school) and Alabama (no seriously) for James.  Having his brother on board was certainly a selling point but the coaches did a great job on this one and Daniels may earn early playing time.  He graduated early from high school and enrolled at Iowa for this spring semester so he’s already adjusting to college, working out with the strength and conditioning staff and he’ll participate in spring practice.  Daniels is already 6’4 275 lbs. so by August he could easily be physically ready to play.  He’s a natural center after played it throughout high school so he doesn’t have to learn the nuances of the position.  Austin Blythe is slated to return to center after moving to guard last year but if Daniels can prove that he’s ready I won’t be the least bit shocked to see him lined up over the ball for the first snap in August.  It’s possible Daniels plays guard for a year to learn from Blythe but Daniels at center and Blythe at guard might be the better lineup.

Levi and Landan Paulsen are twin brothers from Woodbury Central High School in northwest Iowa and they may be the two most underrated players I’ve ever seen.  Levi is 6’6 275 lbs. and played LT while Landan is 6’6 285 lbs. and played LG on their high school team…I think anyway I keep getting them confused.  There is a chance they both end up at OT and I’m alright with this because Iowa is seriously lacking for OTs on the depth chart and having bookend twins on the line would be awesome, of course that will not help me in remembering which one is the LT and which is the RT.

Brett Waechter is another northwest Iowa kid (it’s a theme with the OL guys) and he is also already enrolled at Iowa like James Daniels but he won’t be seeing the field this next year.  Waechter has some growing to do as he is only about 265 lbs. and he is also having shoulder surgery that will keep him on the sidelines.  The good thing about Waechter is that at 6’5 he has the frame to bulk up and he could end up inside at OG or outside at OT so he offers some nice versatility down the line.

Jacob Newborg was the first commitment for the 2015 recruiting class about a year and a half ago.  He is from Inwood, IA (I wasn’t lying about the northwest Iowa thing) and he’s an impressive looking player.  He’s so impressive that it isn’t completely settled if he’s going to play offensive guard or defensive tackle and there may be a throw down between the offensive and defensive staffs over him before all is said and done.  If I were to venture a guess I would say he ends up at defensive tackle but only because Iowa has plenty of offensive guard prospects on the roster and they struck out on most of the defensive tackle recruits this cycle.  Newborg is a beast and his motor runs non-stop and he could be a devastating player on the interior of the defensive line.  At offensive guard he would bring a nasty attitude that this team could use much the same way Brandon Scherff has for the past few years.

The Wide Receivers (Jerminic Smith, Emmanuel Ogwo and Adrian Falconer)

The Hawkeyes may have actually found some playmakers in Smith, Ogwo and Falconer now it’s just a matter of using them.  If the majority of playing time next season at WR is taking up by Matt Vandeberg, Jacob Hillyer, Riley McCarron and Andrew Stone then we are all in for a long year.  Tevaun Smith needs to be the focal point in passing game and players like Andre Harris, Derrick Mitchell and Jay Scheel need to be given every opportunity to get on the field.  Usually when Ferentz plays a freshman WR it’s a bit of a surprise which one it is (it was Vandeberg two years ago) but I’ve watched quite a bit of film on these three and Jerminic Smith looks like a player to me.  Smith isn’t big at 6’1 180 lbs. but he is fast, fluid and confident on the field.  He has a swagger to him that most Iowa WRs don’t have and the Hawkeye offense could use some of that.  He is dangerous with the ball in hands whether it’s catching the deep throw or grabbing a screen pass and running after the catch.  There are a lot of Hawkeye fans who are sick of the WR screen pass but I’m only sick of watching it when it’s run to the slowest WR on the field.  Ogwo and Falconer might surprise us all and get some playing time but they both look like they could use a year to grow.  Ogwo is a track star so he would bring a nice dose of speed to the position.  I certainly applaud the coaching staff on getting WR recruits from Texas (Smith and Ogwo) and Florida (Falconer), gotta go where the playmakers are.

The Linebackers (Jack Hockaday, Angelo Garbutt, Justin Jinning and Nick Wilson)

The LB position was definitely one of need in this class and not because Iowa is going to lose so many guys to graduation but because the two upper classes are unbelievably thin.  Travis Perry and Cole Fisher are the only seniors and there are no juniors on the roster at all.  Considering Perry and Fisher were beaten out by completely inexperienced players like Josey Jewell and Bo Bower it was pretty obvious that the position needed a talent infusion.  Hockaday was the all-everything in high school playing multiple positions and seeming excelling at them all.  He played QB on offense and he basically was his team’s offense.  He needs to put on weight to play LB but he is a special kind of athlete and he’ll contribute on special teams right away and he may find some playing time early if he adjusts quickly to just playing LB.  Garbutt was the good surprise the day before signing day as he picked Iowa over an offer from Nebraska and he too is expected to contribute on special teams immediately.  He is slightly bigger so he may be physically ready quicker than any of these guys.  Justin Jinning is an underrated athlete and Iowa could use someone with his skills in coverage.  Nick Wilson was a late offer after the Hawkeyes missed on a few prospects they had ahead of him on their board.  Wilson played safety at Dowling Catholic High School in West Des Moines and while the Hawkeyes are expecting him to bulk up and play outside LB I’m not so sure he shouldn’t give safety a try first.  Iowa isn’t exactly stacked at the safety position and if Wilson could play strong safety he might be better off there.

The Quarterbacks (Ryan Boyle and Drew Cook)

The two most athletic QBs Iowa has taken since Brad Banks and there is a chance neither of them ends up a QB.  Many Iowa fans would tell me to bite my tongue saying that but it is a possibility in the long run.  I actually think Boyle sticks and Cook moves but that change might be two years away.  Boyle led Dowling Catholic to consecutive 4A state titles the last two years and he brings a confidence that reminds me of Drew Tate.  He isn’t a polished passer but he’s gotten better and he was actually the leading rusher on his high school team meaning he’s a true dual threat QB.  He isn’t a tall QB (generously listed 6’1) but he is a good athlete with a strong build and he could play safety if he moves to another position in the future.  Cook is a tall QB at 6’5 and yes he is the son of former Hawkeye great Marv Cook.  Marv was Drew’s high school coach at Iowa City Regina and they have won five straight state titles (Drew only QBed the last 3).  Drew is also very athletic and he has become a much better passer over the past two years.  From a scouting perspective Cook has some mechanical issues with his delivery and he will have major transition going from Iowa Class 1A football to major college football as a QB.  The obvious move for him is to play TE like his father and he’s a good athlete with a solid frame and I think he would be a very good TE.  One thing Iowa fans like to do is forget about the guys on the roster and expect one of these two to be the future at QB for Iowa.  The battle between CJ Beathard and Jake Rudock and the recruiting of two decorated Iowa high school QBs has made fans forget about last years QB recruit Tyler Wiegers.  If there is one thing standing in the way of either of these two playing QB at Iowa it isn’t each other, it’s Wiegers.

Good News Bad News

The Defensive Ends (Anthony Nelson, Brady Reiff and Michael Slater)

DE is a sore spot on the roster much like LB with the exception that Drew Ott and Nate Meier actually contribute as starters as opposed to the LB upperclassmen.  Senior Melvin Spears and junior Daumantas Venckus-Cucchiara are candidates to be asked to move on as they don’t contribute on the field and Iowa may need their scholarships.  The Hawkeyes desperately need contributions from redshirt freshmen Matt Nelson, Terrance Harris and Parker Hesse (Hesse converted from LB to DE in December).  It is possible although unlikely that the three true freshmen will contribute because they all need time to grow.  Anthony Nelson was a late flip from Iowa St. after Iowa finally offered him a scholarship and he could grow into a nice DE but at 6’6 and 210 lbs. he needs to seriously add weight.  Michael Slater is much bigger at 6’3 265 lbs. and he might get a chance if he can pass up any of the redshirt freshmen.  Brady Reiff (yep Riley’s little brother) is also undersized at 6’4 215 lbs. but he is the third early enrollee for the Hawkeyes so if he can add some weight he will have some actual practice time in the spring and might be able to contribute this season but I wouldn’t count on it.  The good news is that the Hawkeyes have done a nice job of getting some DE prospects in the last two classes, the bad news is they need them to make a difference right now and these aren’t really immediate impact guys.

More Good New Bad News

The good news is that the Hawkeyes got a nice TE prospect in Nate Vejvoda, the bad news is that they only got one safety prospect in Michael Ojemudia.

The good news is Vejvoda should have a little time to bulk up before he’s needed, the bad news is that Ojemudia may be needed far too soon.

The good news is Gary Dolphin should have a couple of years to learn to pronounce Vejvoda’s name, the bad news is he may have to learn Ojemudia’s (don’t ask me) way faster than that.

The good news is that the Hawkeyes may have found a diamond in the rough in RB Eric Graham out of Alabama, the bad news is they had to find him late because they lost a very good RB prospect Karan Higdon on signing day to Michigan.

The Bad News (hopefully with a silver lining)

Karan Higdon had been committed to the Hawkeyes for a while and the week before signing day he said he was 110% a Hawkeye.  For those of us that follow recruiting closely this gave us an uneasy feeling because the last time a running back gave that kind of statement was when Melvin Gordon said he was 100% committed to Iowa and then decommitted shortly after that and went on to his stellar career at Wisconsin.  There is a nice symmetry to Gordon leaving Wisconsin for the NFL and now the Hawkeyes will have another Big Ten running back to loathe.  It seemed like a shady deal with Higdon at the end of recruiting as there were reports of a “handler”, for lack of a better term, sending his tape to Michigan and pushing him to visit and then he eventually flipped to the Wolverines.  Iowa doesn’t usually do well with kids that have “handlers” because they don’t play that game but this one stung a little and it won’t soon be forgotten by many Hawkeye fans.  The silver lining might come in the form of Eric Graham a kid from Alabama no one had ever heard of until late in the morning on signing day.  Graham just recently got a qualifying ACT score in December and according to his coach that’s why he wasn’t highly recruited.  He put up insane stats his last two years and his film looks fantastic so it’s hard to believe anything else held him back.  After watching his highlight reels I love the way he runs.  Iowa has been lacking a back that can make one cut and burst through the hole in the zone blocking scheme and that’s exactly what Graham seems to excel at.  I’ll bang the drum on this one more time and say the Hawkeyes have to recognize their playmakers and actually use them, Graham isn’t a top flight, well-regarded recruit but the staff has to give him every opportunity to play because the depth chart at RB needs his skills.

The rest of the bad news on signing day was more about perception than anything else.  Having the Hawkeyes finish 12th or 13th in the recruiting rankings for the Big Ten is a PR blow for a coach and program that needs a shot in the arm.  I’ll be the first to say that many of the 2 star recruits Iowa got I like very much (Graham, Falconer, Jinning and Reiff specifically) but in college football perception is reality.  The reality is that the Hawkeye program is struggling and the perception of the recruiting class is that they are going to continue to struggle if this is the best they can do.  I really like a lot about this recruiting class and surprising I like many of the young players on the roster and I see plenty of potential.  Now if Iowa just had a coaching staff that could get these guys to reach their potential we might get somewhere (I warned you there might be an occasional shot at Ferentz/Davis).

 

 

So Kirk Ferentz decided to hold a press conference to announce…nothing.  Nothing at all.  Oh wait…two guys are transferring and one guy is unable to continue his career due to injury.  Isn’t that what press releases are for?  According to Kirk “we needed to talk”, those words usually come when a relationship is about to end, no one wants to hear their boyfriend or girlfriend say “we need to talk”… unless you want out of the relationship too.  That hope is now gone.  The rumors leading up to “the most important press conference in Kirk’s tenure”, sorry that’s a message board moniker, was that Kirk was going to retire or he’s going to announce staff changes or he’s only coming back for one more year and then he’s handing the reigns to his son Brian (that was my favorite rumor only because of the absurdness of it).  You can call Kirk Ferentz a lot of things (overpaid, out-of-touch, stubborn) but he’s a professional and knows how the coaching world works and he wasn’t going to wait until the middle of January to announce his retirement, no matter what you think of Coach Ferentz he wasn’t going to put the University in that position.  The idea that Kirk is going to get to just hand the program to his son is laughable in today’s college football world (he may hand him the offensive coordinator’s job but the head job is not his to give).  I was hoping beyond hope that he was going to announce that Greg Davis had decided to ride off into the sunset and he was going to begin a national search for a new offensive coordinator/QB coach, no such luck.  Then Kirk Ferentz took questions and proceeded to flip the bird, metaphorically, to anyone who believes the program needs change.

When asked about any possible coaching moves Ferentz used his usual “we’ll look at some things” and “it takes time” fallback answers, he did eventually say that some adjustments might be made.  Well unless the adjustment is Davis being put in charge of sharpening pencils I’m not feeling optimistic about the Hawkeye’s offense next season.  If there isn’t going to be any wholesale changes to the offensive staff than I am all for making Brian Ferentz the offensive coordinator for two reasons.  1. He may be the only coach on the offensive staff with some new ideas and a good enough grasp of our players to actually use the players we have.  Iowa isn’t about to get a bunch of new freshmen next year that are going to change the dynamics of the offense so somebody better figure out a way to better utilize the talent we have on hand.  2. Handing the offensive over to Brian Ferentz puts Kirk’s neck on the line.  If Brian succeeds and turns things around that’s fantastic because the Hawkeyes would be good again.  If it goes the other way and the Hawkeyes fall farther then the choice to get rid of Kirk is made for you.  Sometimes you have to push all your chips to the center of the table and hope you’ve got the best hand, if you don’t you walk away.  I’m a born and bred Hawkeye fan and I want the program to succeed but I also understand that sometimes the only way you succeed in the long run is to take your lumps now.

There were so many disturbing things said by Ferentz in his press conference that I’m not sure I can cover them all but I’ll give it a try.  He tried to assure everyone that he’s not tone deaf, all evidence to the contrary, and that he wants to make changes, not just change for change sake but the right changes.  Unfortunately 16 years’ worth of evidence makes this hard to believe.  His comment about not being tone deaf was followed up just a few minutes later by a question about changing schemes and Ferentz answered by talking about how well the team was doing academically and how no one ever talks about that.  That’s great Kirk except that wasn’t the question that was asked, maybe when he said he wasn’t tone deaf he was trying to tell us he’s actually deaf and can’t hear what questions that are being asked.

When asked about the change at QB and listing CJ Beathard as the starter on his never-before-released January two-deeps and if he regretted not playing Beathard more during the season Ferentz said “I’m not a big one looking backwards”.  Except if you read the entire transcript of the press conference (and I have several times) he has no problem going back and referencing the 1999 and 2000 seasons and how they had to push through those tough years (he referenced 1999 six times in case you’re wondering).  It was starting to feel like talking to someone with Alzheimer’s, he can recall 16 years ago without a problem but the issues of today don’t seem to concern him.

Ferentz started to talk about how he was spending too much time “outside of the building” meaning he has been spending too much time with donors, giving speeches and doing appearances.  That’s all part of the job and I’m glad he knows he need to change it but it’s a little disconcerting because exactly how long has this been a problem.  Obviously that is a part of the job of a major Division 1 coach and he was needed to help raise funds for the new football complex but coaching has to come first and if you aren’t making that priority #1 that is a huge problem.

In conjunction with his take on needing to spend more time coaching he talked about how he and his staff needed to study other teams and what they are doing and make adjustments but as I said before 16 years’ worth of evidence says he won’t really change. His own words say the same thing and this is where Ferentz really gets into an area that he loses my support. When asked about studying other programs and being open to changing schemes Ferentz said “Yeah, a lot of people are hung up on offense, at least that’s been my take for 16 years. We’re probably not going to be a spread team or a run shoot team. I don’t see that happening. We just don’t have the access to some of the personnel that some of those folks do that are running the points up”.  I’m sorry Kirk but that is a cop out and it is only true if you let it be true. Ferentz also mentions that Iowa still likes to play defense as if having a good offense and a good defense are mutually exclusive ideas. There are a couple of things wrong with the idea that Iowa can’t run an up tempo offense or that somehow the Hawkeyes have to be a three yards and a cloud of dust offense. The idea that you have to have athletes like Oregon, Auburn or Ohio St to run a high octane offense is ludicrous. I’ve watched schools like Indiana and Northwestern have highly productive offenses with players much like the ones Iowa recruits. What kind of success could Iowa have if they put an offense like Indiana’s alongside a typical (not the 2014 version) Iowa defense. My other issue with this thinking is the apparent blind spot Ferentz has for his own personnel. I would like to see Ferentz go up to Tevaun Smith and tell him “Sorry, we can’t run a high flying offense because you’re not good enough”. Does he really believe that the talent he has on the offensive side of the ball isn’t good enough? If Tevaun Smith played at Indiana for an offensive coach like Kevin Wilson he would have caught 100 balls last season. I’ve made my case before about how Iowa’s offense doesn’t use the talent it has and now I understand why, Ferentz just doesn’t have the confidence in his players that I do. Teams like Indiana and Northwestern have struggled overall and I’m not saying I want a program like that but one thing they have been pretty good at over the past five years or so is offense and Iowa has not.

Ferentz seems to have this defeatist attitude towards his offense but it doesn’t start there. It starts on the recruiting trail where Iowa sometimes doesn’t even get into the recruiting game with top notch skill position players. I understand that impulse when you know they are going to look at your offensive philosophy and laugh you out of the room. But it doesn’t take a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits to have a potent offense.  Take a look at schools like TCU and Baylor two of the higher scoring offenses in the country. QB Bryce Petty of Baylor and QB Trevone Boykin of TCU were both 3 star recruits and Ferentz’s belief that it’s going to take a few years to turn around his offense is also an antiquated notion. TCU is the perfect example for Ferentz to follow. Gary Patterson has been a highly successful coach in his time with the Horned Frogs and his teams have been known for their stellar defenses his entire tenure. TCU’s offenses have been good at times but in 2013 it wasn’t great and it resulted in a 4-8 record and Patterson’s second bowl-less season of his tenure. He didn’t stand pat, he didn’t bury his head in the sand and say “we’ve won my way in the past so it’s fine”, he recognized his team’s offense wasn’t good enough and he committed to changing with the times and updating his scheme. He hired Doug Meacham and Sonnie Cumbie as co-coordinators, two guys with experience in high octane offenses and he let them go to work. They had an open QB competition during fall camp and it was Trevone Boykin, a converted WR, that won the job and all he did was lead them to a 12-1 record, the cusp of the College Football Playoff and set himself up as a top Heisman contender next season. Yep, the next year.

I’m not here to advocate that Iowa implement the Baylor/TCU offensive style because it isn’t necessary to compete in the Big Ten but watching teams like Ohio St (hey, all they did this year was win a National Title), Minnesota, Indiana and Northwestern and looking at the good things they do isn’t asking too much. Wisconsin, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska and Ohio St all ran the ball while also finding a way to effectively pass the ball, okay maybe not Wisconsin so much but the others did. Iowa could use better talent, besides Ohio St who couldn’t, but that doesn’t mean Iowa doesn’t have some talent. Since it looks like Ferentz isn’t going anywhere anytime soon it’s time to not only re-evaluate the offensive philosophy but also the use of the personnel. The graduation of middling talents like Mark Weisman, Kevonte Martin-Manley and Damon Bullock should force Ferentz and the coaching staff to use some other players. Hopefully they will give a fair chance to young guys like LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley at RB and Andre Harris, Derrick Mitchell and Jay Scheel at WR. If next year’s offense is a steady diet of Jordan Canzeri running the football and passes thrown to Jacob Hillyer and Matt Vandeberg then all Hawkeye fans are in for more of the same.

I’ve been harping on the offense and Greg Davis specifically and for good reason but that doesn’t mean I’m ready to let the defense off the hook. The good news is 2014 was the exception and not the rule when talking about Iowa’s defense. They were not good for most of the year and downright terrible too many times (Minnesota and Tennessee games the most glaring examples). As good as Christian Kirksey, James Morris and Anthony Hitchens were blaming the loss of those three completely for Iowa’s pathetic 2014 is far too simplistic. As with many problems the Hawkeyes face it begins with recruiting and not only missing out on players but miss evaluating the guys they do get. The defensive line is stacked pretty well up the middle at defensive tackle and even with the graduation of stalwarts Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat the interior of the line is still in good hands. Drew Ott is a solid DE that will hopefully have a big senior year next year but he is still not a dominant rush end. Nate Meier is a try hard DE with some speed but not a lot of bulk and he certainly hasn’t been lighting it up as pass rusher. After those two the only hope comes in the form of three redshirt freshman next season; Matt Nelson, Terrance Harris and Parker Hesse. Having two or three classes’ worth of nothing at DE isn’t helping the defense. I assume Phil Parker’s reluctance to use the Raider package this last season as he did in 2013 stems from not having the players to make it work but that is on the staff for having so little quality at LB in the upper classes. When Travis Perry and Cole Fisher are the only two upper classmen that could possibly see time at the position next year and they don’t because redshirt freshmen are better than they are that should make the coaching staff re-evaluate what they have been doing recruiting wise. The two best linebackers in 2014 (they were far from stellar and I hope that’s because they are young) were Josey Jewell and Bo Bower. Jewell was late offer during the recruiting period and Bower originally came to Iowa as a walk-on so that doesn’t make me feel great about the staff’s evaluation skills. My last issue on defense is the safety position, against all odds the staff has actually done a pretty good job at cornerback and has both talent and depth at the position; the same cannot be said at safety. FS Jordan Lomax is solid going into his senior season but the coaching staff lucked into him ending up there after the emergence of Desmond King two years ago and the development of several other players allowing Lomax to slide inside. The continued use of John Lowdermilk over the past two seasons has shown just how poorly Iowa has recruited at safety. Ferentz’s propensity to play the guy that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes but also doesn’t make many plays is extremely frustrating. Lowdermilk had his moments but far too often was overmatched in coverage or out of position in run support or as was the case against Tennessee just simply out of his league. The fact that the only real backup to him was true freshman Miles Taylor shows you that the dearth of talent in the redshirt freshmen, sophomore and junior classes is consistent throughout the defense. Phil Parker can coach this defense and they can be good but he has to have more talent and that is on him, coach Ferentz and the rest of the staff to do a better job recruiting talent.

In the NFL there is a belief that it takes three good draft classes in a row to build a franchise and that has proven to be true more often than not and in college football I can tell you without question that 3 recruiting classes giving you very little help will kill your program every time. Recruiting is the lifeblood of every college program and when you consistently miss on players over several classes it makes a coach’s job that much harder.  I’m not one to get caught up in the star rating system used by Rivals, 24/7 Sports or ESPN because they make mistakes. There are loads of examples of 4 and 5 star recruiting busts and just as many 3 star guys that become great players but it isn’t a coincidence that teams like Oregon, Alabama, Florida St. and Ohio St have rosters full of 4 and 5 star players. You can still be a good team with 3 star level prospects but it would be a lot easier if you tried to give your 3 star talent a schematic advantage. There’s an old saying that Hayden Fry was fond of that says, “Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard”. Well guess what, better talent kicks lesser talent’s ass when they know exactly what the lesser talent is going to do and it’s been a long time since anyone was surprised by Iowa.

If Kirk Ferentz isn’t going anywhere and he’s not going to make any coaching changes then for the sake of the Hawkeye program I hope he does what he said he would do during his press conference. I hope he spends more time coaching and less time smoozing. I hope he spends time looking at offenses from this decade, that would help. I hope he re-evaluates the way they are recruiting (I am actually more excited by some of this upcoming recruiting class than most). I hope he spends time evaluating the players he has and decides to use the talent available to him. I hope he puts Greg Davis in charge of sharpening pencils and then buys all his coaches new pens. I hope he realizes that this is the last stand and that being his usual conservative self is detrimental to his team. I have very little confidence that any of this is going to happen because after 16 years I know better. Finally I hope that if none of my hopes come true and Iowa is as bad as they were this last year that a year from now I’m writing about Iowa’s new head coach. I hope I’m writing about some breath of fresh air that is coming to Iowa and I hope I’m excited about Hawkeye football again because it’s going to be really hard to be excited about next year.

Press Conference Transcript Link

http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/011415aaf.html

Article about TCU’s new coordinators from last August Link

http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2014-08-22/tcu-football-looks-spark-offense-new-co-coordinators 

 

 

My family used to have a dog named Snickers, he was smart, independent and lived to be 16 years old.  Snickers had a great run despite being epileptic.  He was stubborn, he always had to have his end of the couch but we all loved that dog because he had such a great personality.  We endured the epileptic seizures because he lived such a great life but in end he was blind and deaf in one ear and his arthritis made it hard for him to get around.  My Dad had every intention of putting Snickers to sleep but he was just waiting to give the family one last Christmas with him then on the day after Thanksgiving several years ago Snickers “fell” down the basement stairs and ran into the wall at the end.  He was hurt and in pain and my Dad knew it was time and he did what had to be done.  I wasn’t there but I have always contended that Snickers didn’t fall down the steps he threw himself down them knowing that if he hit the wall hard enough my Dad would do the right thing and put him out of his misery.  Yesterday I watched the Iowa Hawkeyes hurl themselves down a flight of stairs hoping Gary Barta would do the right thing and put us out of our misery.  I fear Mr. Barta doesn’t have the same compassion my father has.

Kirk Ferentz has had a tremendous 16 year run as the head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes and he’s a great person and is a better man than most head coaches in college football today.  I truly prefer to have man like Ferentz running the Hawkeye program over a guy like Bo Pelini or someone like Bobby Petrino but that’s not the issue.  There are other good men out there and Ferentz’s time has run its course.  Gary Barta doesn’t have the guts to pull the trigger and fire Coach Ferentz especially not with a more than $13 million buyout hanging over his head so I’m left hoping he’ll force Ferentz to make staff changes.  Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis has to go and I’m not sure how Ferentz can make the argument to keep him, it would be a ludicrous argument to make.  After the shellacking the Hawkeye defense took yesterday against Tennessee I can make a pretty good argument for sending Defensive Coordinator Phil Parker on his way too.

Last season Parker did a solid job using the Raider package to generate a pass rush and having three elite LBs like Anthony Hitchens, James Morris and Christian Kirksey made life a lot easier.  Against Tennessee Iowa was back to the days of letting a LB (a redshirt freshman who was a walk-on a few months ago) cover a WR and get beat like a drum and Iowa’s pass rush was nowhere to be found.  Regression is not a good thing.  The specific issue with the defense against Tennessee was poor fundamentals (tackling) more than anything else.  There is a serious talent gap and that’s on all of the coaches because recruiting hasn’t been up to snuff the last few years.  Unlike the offensive side of the ball I can’t say I disagree with many personnel choices that Parker has made with the exception of strong safety were I can’t believe someone else couldn’t be better than John Lowdermilk these past two seasons.  Overall on the defensive side I think Parker was playing his best players he just needs better ones.  The LB unit is really young with redshirt freshmen Josey Jewell and Bo Bower along with sophomore Reggie Spearman showing plenty of talent but lacking in experience.  I do think Spearman struggled this year and he may not hold onto his spot.  The defensive line is stacked with talented players but this year they struggled against talented RBs and again failed to generate the kind of pass rush the Hawkeye defense needs.  This was a case of the whole not being the sum of its parts.  There is an argument to be made that a better defensive coordinator could do more with the talent on hand and could certainly do more to get more talent on hand.  Recruiting is the lifeblood of college football and the Hawkeyes aren’t doing a very good job especially on the defensive side of the ball.

I will have no faith in the Hawkeye program if Greg Davis returns as offensive coordinator.  The ineptitude at every turn over the past several seasons is unacceptable.  Game planning is one the biggest responsibilities of an offensive coordinator and I have yet to see Davis come up with a useful one.  His game plans against Iowa St. and Maryland this past season were especially atrocious.  Play calling is another major responsibility of the offensive coordinator and Davis’ philosophy of throwing the ball horizontally instead of vertically is laughable in today’s college football game.  Trying to run a 240 lbs. tailback to the edges eventually becomes comical once you get past the sheer disappointment when you realize he actually designed it that way.  Taking one of your speediest players (Jonathan Parker) and using him on the jet sweep the way Wisconsin uses Melvin Gordon is a fantastic call until everyone realizes that’s the only play you use him for and every time he enters the game everyone knows exactly what play you’re going to run.  Running a four WR set is a good idea on the 3^rd down and 6 but designing the play so that 3 out of the 4 WRs  run 4 yard routes is not.  College football offenses have become about two major philosophical things in the last 10 years; being unpredictable and creating mismatches.  Kirk Ferentz has never been one to be unpredictable on offense, even I can’t blame Davis for that one, but the only mismatches Davis creates are to the advantage of the defense.  Throwing a WR screen to Kevonte Martin-Manley is ridiculous; he hasn’t run away from a defender since junior high.  Earlier this year the Hawkeyes tried to run a play called a hook and ladder, it’s where one WR catches a pass after running a hook route and then laterals the ball to another WR that comes from behind him.  Iowa lateraled the ball to Martin-Manley this is poor use personnel and means you’re out of touch with the strengths of your own players.

I said that I only had one issue with the personnel choices on the defensive side of the ball well I’ll make up for that with plenty of issues on the offensive side.  As with anything offensive it all starts at QB.  Greg Davis isn’t just the offensive coordinator he’s the QB coach too and neither Jake Rudock nor CJ Beathard have progressed at all in the last two years.  Rudock is the cerebral type that everyone sees as the risk adverse guy that Ferentz loves because he doesn’t make mistakes.  He does keep the turnovers to a minimum but given that he’s so smart shouldn’t the QB coach be able to teach him not to dump it off so often and so quickly?  Teach him to look down field a little longer, not to lock onto his target so early and make his progression reads and find the open man?  CJ Beathard is the gunslinger, the big arm with the great feel for the game and the ability to pull it down and make a play with his legs if need be.  So why is it in two years he’s the same guy?  He hasn’t learned that the dump-off pass is okay from time to time and is actually a good play sometimes.  From what I see CJ Beathard hasn’t learned a thing in the past two years about playing QB efficiently.  Is that on the players? Some for sure but the coaches get paid to coach.  My biggest issue with the QB position is with both Davis and Ferentz.  Ferentz obviously thought Rudock was the better choice but every week this season he said he was going to give Beathard a chance, of course when the game rolled around that was seldom the case.  The old football saying is that if you have two QBs it means you don’t have one.  In this case you have two guys that you obviously aren’t completely sold on and you’re hoping one of them will play so well that he makes the decision for you but for two years you don’t coach either one of them well enough to get them to do that.

I mentioned that in today’s college football offense is about creating mismatches.  Greg Davis’ scheme doesn’t do that at all, at least not in the offenses favor but his personnel choices aren’t helping either.  Iowa fans like to complain that the Hawkeyes don’t have playmakers but I don’t see it that way at least not completely.  Tevaun Smith, Damond Powell, Jonathan Parker and Derrick Willies (before he decided to leave the team in the middle of the year) all offer playmaker skills.  I already mentioned how Ferentz and Davis negated Parker’s impact by making him the most predictable player in college football.  Damond Powell might have been a close second because he only came in to run the go route and everyone knew it.  He might have been more useful if he played more than a handful of snaps a game.  Derrick Willies was masterful in spring and fall camp and he made a couple of plays early in the year on the few plays he got in the game (we will never know what he could have been here).  Tevaun Smith is the one that really bothers me.  He gets plenty of reps as a starter but the Hawkeyes never move him around the formation to get him in a favorable matchup.  I watch a team like Maryland that has two good WRs and yet they still scheme to get Stefon Diggs in a mismatch when they need a play.  If you don’t believe me go re-watch the Iowa/ Maryland game and watch Diggs get lined up on LB or a safety anytime Maryland needed yards.  That’s what good teams do even stacked teams like Alabama.  WR Amari Cooper didn’t have 115 catches in the regular season by accident.  Alabama OC Lane Kiffin is a first rate asshat but Cooper is a special talent and Kiffin knew it.  I’m not saying Tevaun Smith is Amari Cooper but if he is we would never know it.

I’m putting a lot of blame on the coordinators and they deserve plenty but there are some position coaches that could go too if Ferentz is forced to make changes.  WR coach Bobby Kennedy is most closely associated with Davis and while I like Kennedy’s fiery personality on the sidelines he is also to blame with the misuse of some of the WRs.  RB coach Chris White made some questionable personnel decisions also but he might be looking for work because he is the Hawkeyes special teams coach.  Early in the season the kicking game was a disaster until Marshall Koehn got it together.  The punting was less than stellar all year and this all was taking place while Coach White was working with 2 scholarship punters (Dillon Kidd and Connor Kornbrath) and 2 scholarship kickers (Marshall Koehn and Mick Ellis).  That’s a lot of scholarships used on punters and kickers for not a lot of production.  The return game wasn’t any better as it became rediculous watching the Iowa punt returner (regardless of who it was) call for a fair catch no matter what.  White’s tenure as special teams coach may end up being most remembered for Jonathan Parker’s inexplicable illegal forward pass as he stepped out on the two yard line on a kick return against Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl.  I’m fairly sure White never coached Parker to do something that stupid but it sort of sums up Iowa’s special teams’ play under White.

All of this comes back to Coach Ferentz, a good man holding on for too long and it feels like his only plan to make it better is to wish for it.  Well if wishing made it so I’d look like a Calvin Klein model and be the general manager of the Patriots.  I’ve never been one to complain about the money Kirk Ferentz makes, was he supposed to turn down the 10 year extension and $4 million a year?  But 7-6 isn’t good enough and the five years of mediocrity is enough.  Gary Barta isn’t going to pull the trigger to get rid of Ferentz but he better insist on major changes and force Ferentz to make a choice.  Change or get out.  I know there is an argument of “be careful what you wish for”, Hawkeye fans badly wanted Steve Alford to leave and we saw him bolting to New Mexico as a gift and then we ended up with Todd Lickliter.  Sometimes you have to take a step back to take two steps forward.

If by some miracle Barta either grows a set and boots Ferentz or he forces his hand on staff changes and Ferentz negotiates a buyout instead then I have some thoughts on Iowa’s next head coach.  I won’t go into detail but here’s my quick take.  I don’t want Bret Bielema because he’s not the type of guy I want leading the Iowa program.  I don’t believe Bob Stoops would make the move but after his bowl blowout and the subsequent fan backlash after a lackluster season he should be Barta’s first call.  The more realistic choice in my mind is Kentucky coach Mark Stoops.  The youngest of the Stoops coaching brothers isn’t the jackass Mike is and he’s a hell of a recruiter.  If Ferentz holds on for a couple of more years I’m going to be keeping my eye on new University of Houston coach Tom Herman.  He’s done a masterful job as Ohio St.’s offensive coordinator and it doesn’t seem to matter who his QB is.

2014 NFL Predictions

NFC Playoffs

Division Winners

Philadelphia

Green Bay

New Orleans

San Francisco

Wild Card Teams

Seattle

Arizona

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco over New Orleans

AFC Playoffs

Division Winners

New England

Cincinnati

Indianapolis

Denver

Wild Card Teams

Kansas City

Baltimore

AFC Championship Game

Denver over New England

Super Bowl Prediction (if you read last year’s you know I’m terrible at this)

Denver over San Francisco

 

Individual Player Awards

 

Most Valuable Player:

Top Contenders:  QB Peyton Manning, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Adrian Peterson, RB LeSean McCoy, RB Jamaal Charles

My Dark Horse Candidate:  QB Matthew Stafford

            I picked Manning last year and he ran away with the award but I also picked Matt Ryan as my dark horse candidate and he had a terrible season.  Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady are perennial candidates and any of them could win it at any time.  Peterson is a known commodity and he’ll carry the Vikings offense but the Vikings won’t be good enough to really get Peterson into the conversation.  McCoy and Charles are big time players for their respective teams and they put up huge numbers but their teams aren’t quite good enough to really put these two into the mix but they are expected to be good so it’s not like they turned their teams’ fortunes around.  Stafford has the benefit of the Lions not being great and he is just on the cusp of being something special.  If he makes the leap and gets the Lions into the playoffs or possibly wins the NFC North division he will make a case for himself.  He’s set up to do it because he has the best WR on the planet in Calvin Johnson, finally has a legitimate complementary WR in Golden Tate and the draft brought him a nice weapon in TE Eric Ebron.  Reggie Bush and Joique Bell give him a nice RB tandem to count on and if new head coach Jim Caldwell can harness Stafford’s god given talent he can be as good as any QB in the league.

My Pick:  Peyton Manning

Like I’m dumb enough to go against him in this race.  Manning will throw for over 5000 yards and probably close to 50 TDs again and I have the Broncos winning the Super Bowl so I obviously believe he’s going to have a great year.

Offensive Player of the Year

I went into great detail last year about how Adrian Peterson could win this award instead of the MVP and then Manning made a joke of this voting.  I’m going Manning because not going with him is just crazy.  5000 yards and 50 TDs make voting moot.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders:  CB Richard Sherman, LB Luke Kuechly, DE JJ Watt, OLB Clay Matthews, CB Patrick Peterson, DE Robert Quinn, LB Vontaze Burfict

My Dark Horse Candidate: DE Chandler Jones

Another year and another possible Defensive Player of the Year candidate taken out by an early season suspension, last year it was my pick Von Miller and this year it’s returning sack leader Robert Mathis of the Colts.  Mathis was fantastic last season but he will serve a four game suspension so it will put him behind in the race.  Sherman is arguably the best CB in the league but he won’t get a lot of stats because with Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond gone no one will throw anywhere near him, okay maybe Colin Kaepernick because he just can’t help himself but no one else will.  Kuechly was phenomenal in the middle of Carolina’s defense last year and he earned last season’s Defensive Player of the Year award.  He racks up tackles left and right and that won’t stop but it’s a tough award to pull off twice in a row, he set the bar so high it will be tough to clear it.  Watt won it two years ago and with Jadeveon Clowney now bringing the heat from the other side maybe Watt puts up huge numbers again.  Clay Matthews can’t be counted out because he can be a menace and if he stays healthy and Julius Peppers or Nick Perry can give him a little help he could be big again.  DE Robert Quinn almost led the league in sacks and he has a very solid chance to do so this year except rookie DT Aaron Donald might steal some from him.  LB Vontaze Burfict has emerged as a star on the Bengals defense and he’s switching to weakside linebacker which means he may rack up even more tackles than before.  DE Chandler Jones was very good last year and he’s getting better all the time.  He did it with very little help from the interior of the Patriots defensive line due to injuries but if Vince Wilfork can come back healthy Jones could be a breakout candidate.

My Pick:  CB Patrick Peterson

The argument against Richard Sherman being the best CB in the NFL is Patrick Peterson.  Peterson should have more chances to make plays this year on defense because the Cardinals signed free agent Antonio Cromartie to play the opposite side.  Seattle’s defense got all the press last season and they earned it but Arizona’s defense was pretty good too.  Peterson is a superb athlete and he makes plays as a punt returner too so his profile should be high enough to possibly get recognition as Defensive Player of the Year.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: WR Sammy Watkins, RB Bishop Sankey WR Kelvin Benjamin, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Brandin Cooks, LT Jake Matthews

My Dark Horse Candidates: One of these backup RBs will take over the starting job at some point; Andre Williams (Giants), Terrence West (Browns), Carlos Hyde (49ers), Davonte Freeman (Falcons)

WRs Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin are immediately the top WR on their respective teams so that gives them a leg up.  RB Bishop Sankey is still listed behind veteran Shonn Greene but I can’t see that lasting because Sankey is a better all-around back.  Jordan Matthews has looked great in camp with the Eagles and they have a hole to fill with DeSean Jackson gone, in Chip Kelly’s offense with Nick Foles throwing to him Matthews should shine.  It would be pretty rare for an offensive tackle to win an award like this but Matthews is stepping into an important role on a team trying to turn itself around after last year’s debacle.  If he can keep Matt Ryan upright he will get some attention.  As for my dark horse candidates I think Williams has the best chance to just outright win the job from the veteran in front of him.  Rashad Jennings is an unknown commodity as a starting RB and while Williams gives the Giants virtually nothing in the passing game he is a fantastic runner.  West and Freeman have the best shots of taking over for an injured starter because there is basically no chance Ben Tate or Steven Jackson makes it through the year healthy.  Carlos Hyde has the most upside if he gets a chance because he’s a beast of a runner and the 49ers are a run heavy team.  However, Hyde is the least likely to get a chance because apparently Frank Gore is immortal.

My Pick:  WR Brandin Cooks

One of the most productive WR in college football ever Cooks is ready from day one to contribute and he happens to play with one of the best QB in the game, has a genius offensive mind for a head coach and fills a specific spot in the offense.  The only thing that could hold Cooks back is the fact that Drew Brees has weapons like Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham but that never seemed to bother Darren Sproles.  Cooks is more receiver while Sproles was more running back but Cooks has a similar skill set and can line up wherever Sean Payton wants to put him.  This is the award where I think one of my dark horse candidates has the best chance to break through and if Frank Gore goes down early in the season I’m changing my choice to Hyde.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders:  OLB Jadeveon Clowney, OLB Khalil Mack, S Calvin Pryor, LB CJ Mosley, LB Kyle Van Noy, CB Jason Verrett, DT Aaron Donald

My Dark Horse Candidate:  ILB Christian Kirksey

Clowney is the big name but he’s been dinged up and he’s transitioning to OLB which he hasn’t played before, it might be a slow start for him.  Pryor is going to be Rex Ryan’s new enforcer in the back end of his defense and he should rack up some nice tackle numbers.  He very well could give the Jets back-to-back Defensive Rookies of the Year but I think he’ll come up short.  Mosley is built for the Ravens defense but he might be overshadowed by fellow ILB Daryl Smith who was fantastic last year.  Kyle Van Noy is going to be fantastic in Detroit but he’s playing OLB in a 4-3 defense which won’t lead to huge stats.  Verrett is the best man-to-man cover guy in San Diego but he hasn’t quite broken through yet to be a starter so he’s starting from behind.  The same thing is going on with Aaron Donald as the Rams have Michael Brockers and Kendall Langford ahead of him on the depth chart but he’s going to create havoc and his sack numbers might be too good to overlook even as a sub.  You can call me a homer for picking the former Hawkeye as my dark horse but I said when he got drafted that Cleveland was a great landing spot for him.  He’s almost a lock to start at ILB next to Karlos Dansby and he’s been awesome in camp.  Kirksey is a tackling machine and he’s a fantastic coverage LB so he may actually put up some stats on a solid Cleveland defense and get some notice.

My Pick: OLB Khalil Mack

I went back and forth between Mack, Van Noy and Kirksey as my final choice and I picked Mack because I think he will make more big plays (i.e. sacks) than any other rookie.  Mack is a star waiting to happen and the only thing that will hold him back will be the lack of talent around him.  That never seemed to slow him down in college so I think he’ll make the adjustment.  His opposite OLB Sio Moore was injured and will be out and that almost made me reconsider my choice because that really puts a bulls-eye on Mack now.  Moore is a talented guy that was going to benefit from Mack’s presence but now the pressure to make plays is all on Mack.

 

Thoughts and Predictions

• I was asked what I thought of the Patriots trade of LG Logan Mankins to the Buccaneers for a fourth round pick and TE Tim Wright. I love what Mankins has been for the Pats but he wasn’t great last year and he got his Pro Bowl bid by reputation not performance. Wright is a TE in the Aaron Hernandez mold (minus the homicidal tendencies) and I like the idea of having Gronk and a TE like Wright working together again. Mankins is scheduled to make over $6 million as a guard and he has fallen off the last few years. I’m all for this trade…now if the Patriots would just find a damn WR that can go deep they would be set.
• I think the Buccaneers realize in about week 4 or 5 that Josh McCown has been a backup for a long time for a reason. I don’t know if Mike Glennon is the answer either and knowing Lovie Smith he will be too conservative to go away from McCown but perhaps offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford will convince him.
• The coaching carousel is always interesting and some coaches are obviously in more peril than others. Joe Philbin (Miami), Dennis Allen (Oakland) and Mike Smith (Atlanta) cannot afford bad seasons or they could get the quick hook. Philbin is on thin ice after last year’s bullying problems and not a lot of progress being made. Allen could be in trouble because he coaches the Raiders, they are terrible and they have no patience. Smith got a mulligan for last year because of the massive injuries but he hasn’t won as much as the team would like and another bad year would make it hard for the front office to not look elsewhere. Rex Ryan (NY Jets) and Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh) seem safe but their teams are treading water. Ryan is already on his third or fourth life in New York but the team has to show something and if the Geno Smith thing doesn’t work out it may be time for Rex to go. Mike Tomlin is a good coach and his team has had some turnover in the last few years so it’s not all his fault. While the Steelers organization is all about stability another mediocre year would have the natives restless. Gus Bradley (Jaguars) probably gets a reprieve since the Jags just drafted their QB of the future but still don’t plan to play him but if the defense (Bradley’s calling card) doesn’t show something the team may decide that their QB of the future needs an offensive minded head coach. Mike Pettine (Cleveland) makes my list simply because the Browns seem to like to change coaches every year and I’m not sure the team is going to have a stellar season. The two most interesting coaching jobs to watch are Jason Garrett (Dallas) and Tom Coughlin (NY Giants). Jerry Jones has given Garrett more chances than Rex Ryan has gotten but what he didn’t give him was a defense. If the Cowboys offense isn’t spectacular and the defense is as bad as they seem the team could go 2-14 and Jones is going to have to explain how he can seriously stick with Garrett. If the Giants are bad, and that’s a distinct possibility, Coughlin might call it a career. He has a Hall of Fame caliber resume and if it looks like the team needs a change he is more likely to walk away than to get fired. Here’s my bold prediction for coaching…Tom Coughlin retires at the end of the season and the new Giants head coach is Bill Cowher.
• My breakout players; some rookies, some just guys who get a chance to shine.On Defense: Patriots DE Chandler Jones, Raiders OLB Khalil Mack, Browns ILB Christian Kirksey, 49ers FS Eric Reid, Ravens FS Terrence Brooks (once he gets his chance).
• On Offense: Bengals RB Giovani Bernard, Giants RB Andre Williams, Packers WR Jarrett Boykin, Saints WR Brandin Cooks, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders, Cardinals RB Andre Ellington and the late addition to the group, new Patriots TE Tim Wright, he just went from Josh McCown as his QB to Tom Brady.
• I said in my Power Rankings that the NY Giants had the worst LB corps in the league but the Atlanta Falcons are trying hard to prove me wrong. The Falcon’s defense could make it a long year in Atlanta.
• I was going to predict that second round QB Derek Carr would be the first rookie QB to start a game this season and then the Raiders beat me to the punch and named him their opening day starter. Carr was considerably better than Matt Schaub in the preseason but I fear for Derek Carr’s health behind that Raider offensive line. Word of advice for Carr, get rid of the ball quickly and duck.
• So Carr is the first rookie QB to get to start this year but he won’t be the last. It’s just a matter of time before Manziel, Bortles and Bridgewater start. Manziel may be the first one in of those three and even though the Jags say they don’t plan to use Bortles I don’t believe them. Bridgewater is my favorite but he actually stands the least chance because Matt Cassel can run Norv Turner’s offense and Cassel actually can win games in Minnesota. Here are my predictions; Maziel starts week 5, right after the Browns bye week, Bortles starts week 7 vs. Cleveland (the battle of the rookie QBs) and Bridgewater takes over in week 14. By week 14 the Vikings will officially be out of the playoff hunt and it will be time to move on.
• Michael Sam was understandably cut from the St. Louis Rams on the final cut down day and they didn’t add him to the practice squad because of their depth at DE. He just signed on with the Dallas Cowboys practice squad and once he gets up to speed on their defense I think he will make the 53 man roster at some point. The Cowboys defense is terrible and they can use all the help they can get, smart move by Sam to go there after not getting signed to St. Louis’ practice squad. When you are a free agent looking to make a team sign with one that is weak at your position.
• Andy Dalton will win his first playoff game this year…hey it has to happen at some point right?
• Ryan Mallet will start more games for the Texans than Ryan Fitzpatrick. It shouldn’t take Mallet that much time to get up to speed on an offense similar to the one he ran in New England. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins will thank God a hundred times for a QB that can actually throw it to them more than 20 yards down the field.
• Last season I said WR Mike Wallace would disappoint after signing a huge contract with the Dolphins and he did to a large extent, he wasn’t completely abysmal but he wasn’t that good either. This year that guy is Jets WR Eric Decker, the difference this year is that it isn’t Decker’s fault. He’s a talented guy that just traded in Peyton Manning for Geno Smith and Decker isn’t really a #1 WR. He has virtually no help in the passing game so his stats will be way down, I don’t think he breaks 1000 yards receiving.
• Other disappointing players this year: Panthers QB Cam Newton-you can’t lose that much OL protection and WR production and not decline. Colts RB Trent Richardson-not a surprise at all but I think this will be the end of a short career for Richardson. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch-it’s a good thing the Seahawks have Christine Michael and Robert Turbin because Lynch has way too many miles on his legs, it’s going to bite them this year. Vikings WR Corderrelle Patterson-he was really good last year but for some reason I’m feeling a sophomore slump.
• There are two guys in make-or-break years for their careers and they are Titans QB Jake Locker and Saints RB Mark Ingram. If Locker can stay healthy I think Ken Whisenhunt is just the guy to turn him around. He has a solid offensive line and Nate Washington and Kendall Wright are good WRs. The thing that would help the most is if WR Justin Hunter can breakout this year, he’s supremely talented and just has to keep his head on straight. Ingram is going to get his best and final chance to prove he can carry the load. Pierre Thomas is going to be the third down guy and Ingram has had a nice preseason so this is it. I actually think he has a good year, not good enough to call him a breakout star but good enough to stick around.
• Last season I was in two fantasy leagues, I finished third in one and was horrible in the other. In five years when I say I’m going to be in two leagues again please remind me that I hate being in multiple leagues. Nothing sucks more than having Peyton Manning on your team and having to face him in the same week. Oh and I’m going to win my league this year.