This year’s draft hinges on where Marcus Mariota ends up going.  It seems as though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are leaning towards drafting Jameis Winston first overall so the fun begins at #2.  The Tennessee Titans could use a QB because no one is exactly sure what they have in last year’s rookie Zack Mettenberger.  Mariota might be worth the #2 overall pick but not to the Titans.  I can’t imagine a worse fit for Mariota than Ken Whisenhunt’s offense.  Mettenberger fits much better because he is a big strong-armed pocket passer, the antithesis of Mariota.  There are rumors swirling that Eagles head coach Chip Kelly is going to mortgage the future to move up and grab Mariota, his former Oregon QB, and that might be what’s best for Mariota’s immediate future but probably not optimal for the Eagles given what they would have to give up to move up from #20.

This draft is loaded with pass rushers and wide receivers and is short on QBs, TEs and safeties.  We might actually see a first round RB go for the first time in three years and it could be more than one.  The combine shuffled the deck a bit especially with the pass rushers and a little with the WRs.  As always my mock draft is part prediction, part critical assessment and part advice.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14) Jameis Winston   QB   Florida St.

Unless Winston has another run in with the law between now and the draft it’s looking like the Buccaneers are going to roll the dice on his enormous potential.  I’m not sure becoming a professional football player and overnight millionaire is going to help Winston’s character issues (it hasn’t been a rousing success for Johnny Football) but his on the field skills are too enticing to pass up.  Coach Lovie Smith and GM Jason Licht are staking their jobs on Winston keeping his nose clean and living up to the hype.  The Bucs QB situation was a disaster last year and no matter how many times Smith claims Mike Glennon can be a franchise QB I’m still not buying it.  Glennon looks like a solid trade candidate for one of the teams that needs a QB but can’t get their hands on Winston, Mariota or Brett Hundley in the draft.  The Buccaneers have two alternative candidates they can look at here with Mariota being the obvious one.  Mariota needs more time to adjust to a pro offense but his character is not a question mark.  The other alternative is the top overall prospect in this draft USC DT Leonard Williams, while the Buccaneers need a DE more than a DT Williams is a special talent.  If they take him and line him up inside next to Gerald McCoy they would have the best set of DTs in the NFL.  At this point only Winston can stop himself from going #1 overall but doing something stupid is not out of the question.

2. Tennessee Titans (2-14) Leonard Williams   DT   USC

The Titans sit in the driver’s seat of the draft and they could go many different ways.  If Tennessee wants to load up on picks to help turn over their very thin roster they can shop this pick to whomever might want to move up for Marcus Mariota or even to someone desperate to grab Leonard Williams.  If they stay here Williams is too good to pass up.  While he doesn’t look like a natural fit in their 3-4 defense because he’s more of a DT Williams is versatile enough to play the five-technique DE position and do it quite well.  Every 3-4 team is looking for their JJ Watt and while that’s a lot to ask Williams skillset might actually make him the league’s next best thing.  Williams is an incredible athlete for a man his size and he can actually rush the passer no matter where he is lined up.  He’s not likely to approach Watt’s sack numbers, it’s asking a lot of anyone especially another 3-4 end, but he’ll give the Titans more pass rush than they have had.  As I mentioned I think Mariota is a bad fit for Ken Whisenhunt because Whisenhunt’s successes have come with QB’s like Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner and Phillip Rivers and that just isn’t Mariota.  Philadelphia would have to give up a lot to move up here given they are sitting at #20 overall in this draft but a team like the Jets or Rams might be able to make a play for this spot if they want Mariota and aren’t willing to see if he’ll fall.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13) Dante Fowler Jr.   OLB   Florida

The first team in the draft that doesn’t need a QB is the Jaguars.  They seem to be fairly satisfied with year one of Blake Bortles and if they can get him a little help on the offensive line and a little health with his skill position guys (Denard Robinson and Marquis Lee) they may actually have a functional offense.  The defense wasn’t nearly as bad last year as it could have been as Gus Bradley did a nice job of finding a pass rush with some veteran additions.  Bradley still needs talent on defense at every level and while the secondary could really use some help there isn’t a prospect in the secondary worthy of the #3 overall pick.  Dante Fowler Jr. is a versatile defender that can bring a great pass rush and a nasty attitude to Bradley’s defense.  Fowler was a fringe top 10 pick going into the combine but his impressive showing moved him up and right now he looks like a top 5 pick that fits what the Jaguars want to do.  Fowler can play LB, bring the pass rush and line-up all over the defense.  He came in at 261 lbs. at the combine and still ran a 4.60 40 which got everyone’s attention.  Bradley will know just what to do with Fowler to make the most of his talent.

4. Oakland Raiders (3-13) Kevin White   WR   West Virginia

I’ve made it clear I’m an Amari Cooper fan but it’s hard to ignore the performance of Kevin White at the combine.  White is a freak athlete who doubles as a very talented WR.  A 6’3 215 lbs. WR with 4.35 speed and a 36 ½ inch vertical leap is tough to forget and he would make a fantastic weapon for 2^nd year QB Derek Carr.  Carr had a pretty solid rookie season and he didn’t have skill position talent like White around him at all.  Pairing White with James Jones and the possibility of a free agent TE or RB would really accelerate the development of Carr and the Raiders offense.  Cooper is the more polished prospect and if I were the Raider’s GM I’d pick him but the Raiders are a team that shoots for the moon and White’s ceiling is incredibly high.  New head coach Jack Del Rio is a defensive coach so he may want a defensive player but GM Reggie McKenzie is trying to hold on to his job and the best way to do that is prove that he made the right call drafting Carr last year to be the franchise QB which means doing everything possible to make sure he succeeds.

5. Washington Redskins (4-12) Vic Beasley   OLB   Clemson

The Redskins’ Robert Griffin induced break from the first round has mercifully come to an end and it has landed them at #5 overall so it hasn’t been a rousing success.  They need help on the offensive line which means Brandon Scherff could be in play here but their defense has been pretty bad and they are about to lose OLB Brian Orakpo to free agency and they need another pass rusher opposite Ryan Kerrigan.  Beasley came into the draft process as a highly productive player with some physical question marks, namely was he big enough to be an effective NFL player.  He rolled into the combine measuring in at 6’3 246 lbs. (about 20 lbs. over his college playing weight), ran a blistering 4.53 40 time and ripped off 35 reps on the bench press, questions answered.  Beasley is the highest riser in the draft at the moment and he will be an immediate impact player for the Redskins.  He is a game-changing talent and too good to pass up, unless new GM Scott McCloughan decides to cut bait on RGIII and grab Marcus Mariota instead (that’s not going to happen unless Dan Snyder is locked in a box somewhere on draft day).

6. New York Jets (4-12) Marcus Mariota   QB   Oregon

The Jets have Geno Smith and Matt Simms on the roster and free agent Michael Vick is not expected back to say they need a franchise QB is an understatement.  Mariota is the type of guy that can handle the New York media and he isn’t the type of guy to end up in the gossip columns the issue is whether or not Mariota can become a pro QB.  The fact that the Jets have a new coach in Todd Bowles means he has time to develop a QB if he so chooses.  The Jets could go with a veteran from the trade market but given the free agent market is less than stellar Mariota is the pick here.  The Jets could use some help on the offensive line, at WR, possibly at RB and they do need to get a little younger on defense at LB so they could go a number of ways or they could dial up Chip Kelly and extract as many draft picks from him as possible if Mariota is still available.

7. Chicago Bears (5-11) Danny Shelton   NT   Washington

New head coach John Fox brought in former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to fix the Bears horrific defense.  Fangio runs a 3-4 scheme and the Bears have virtually no one in their front seven that fits into a 3-4 scheme.  Jared Allen is a 4-3 DE and is too old to learn new tricks, DT’s Will Sutton, Ego Ferguson and Stephen Paea aren’t big enough to be NTs and not long enough to be five-technique DE, last year’s free agent addition Willie Young might be able to transition to an Aldon Smith-like OLB but that’s a stretch.  This massive overhaul has to start somewhere and getting a gigantic NT to put up front is a nice place to start.  Danny Shelton isn’t winning any foot races but he’s a force lined up over the center and they don’t make a lot of 6’2 339 lbs. human beings with his skills so the Bears should grab him while they can.  While I’m not usually in favor of making a transition from one defensive style to another when you have almost no one that fits the new style the Bears defense was so bad last season that even if they kept the 4-3 alignment they need an almost complete overhaul of their front seven personnel anyway so they might as well change now.

8. Atlanta Falcons (6-10) Randy Gregory   DE/OLB   Nebraska

The Falcons haven’t had a good edge rusher since the days of John Abraham and new head coach Dan Quinn knows the value of a good defense.  Gregory slips a little because Fowler and Beasley were both big and fast at the combine while Gregory was good but came in a little light.  Quinn will likely run a multiple front defense where Gregory can line up as a hand-on-the-ground DE in certain situations or as a standup LB in others.  He had a similar player in Seattle in Bruce Irvin so he will understand how to use him.  The Falcons offensive line had many issues last season and it would be perfectly understandable if they address it here.  With new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan bringing in the zone-blocking scheme he’s used to using drafting Brandon Scherff wouldn’t be the worst idea.  Scherff is familiar with zone-blocking and he could pair with last year’s first round pick Jake Matthews to make a nice set of bookend tackles for Matt Ryan.  As good of a fit as I think Scherff could be here I think Quinn wants an impact defender and that’s what he’ll likely get.

9. New York Giants (6-10) Brandon Scherff   OT   Iowa

The Giants built their two most recent Super Bowl teams (according to history, I don’t recall those games) on their incredible pass rush and that is something missing from this team.  Add in the fact that Jason Pierre-Paul could be gone in free agency it seems like a pass rusher would make sense but I’m not convinced there is value in one right here.  Missouri DE Shane Ray didn’t work out at the combine so he could still prove to be the guy, UCLA’s Owa Odighizuwa is a possibility as is Alvin Dupree from Kentucky but the Giants rarely draft for need and will likely go with the best player available.  Scherff is a monster on the offensive line and his best position might be RT or inside and that dovetails perfectly with what the Giants need.  Justin Pugh hasn’t set the world on fire at RT and many believe he’s better suited inside so bringing in Scherff would give Pugh some competition and probably push him inside to guard.  Scherff is a devastating run blocker and no matter where he lines up he would improve the Giants running game which they could certainly use.

10. St. Louis Rams (6-10) Amari Cooper   WR   Alabama

At this point what the Rams are doing at QB changes day-to-day.  Some reports say they are sticking with Sam Bradford and some say they are getting a veteran free agent.  Some reports say they are trading up in the draft and some say they are trading for a veteran, no matter what they do any QB, Bradford or otherwise, deserves better talent around him.  Tavon Austin is a nice little weapon to have but he’s not a #1 WR and while Stedman Bailey stepped up last year he’s a complementary WR not a star.  Cooper is a legitimate #1 WR and a star in the making.  I’ve compared him to Torry Holt and he’s been compared by others to Reggie Wayne and either of those would be music to a QB’s ears.  Bradford is a talented QB who is apparently made out of glass so if the Rams stick with him signing a veteran free agent backup isn’t a terrible idea but drafting Cooper is a fantastic idea no matter who lines up behind center.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) DeVante Parker   WR   Louisville

I’m not usually one to make the easy connection and just go with it but drafting Teddy Bridgewater’s former college teammate to be his go-to WR for the Vikings makes too much sense.  The Vikings have Greg Jennings for the moment (his cap number could get him cut) and he’s not getting any younger, Cordarrelle Patterson had a disappointing second year and while they need help at offensive line and linebacker the value just doesn’t match up.  Parker is the third WR in this draft but he is certainly worth the 11^th pick especially to the Vikings because of his familiarity with Teddy Bridgewater.  Whether it is this year, next year or the year after that Adrian Peterson’s time with the Vikings is likely on the short side and Bridgewater is the future of the franchise, he and Parker could make a dynamic combination for years to come.  Parker also doesn’t squeeze Patterson out he actually enhances his value because he takes the pressure off.  Patterson could rebound in year three because of Parker’s presence and the Vikings passing game could take off.

12. Cleveland Browns (7-9) Shane Ray   OLB   Missouri

The nightmare scenario for the Browns would be Cooper, White and Parker off the board when their pick comes around and in this mock draft that just happened.  It’s not that the Browns don’t have other needs but a true #1 WR is the top priority and while Jaelen Strong had a fantastic combine they may not feel comfortable taking him at #12.  The Browns’ fans nightmare scenario is that the Browns draft Dorial Green-Beckham here and they have to go to sleep at night hoping he doesn’t turn into the next Josh Gordon off the field.  The Browns run defense was terrible and a DT like Malcolm Brown, Carl Davis or Eddie Goldman could be possible but I think unlikely at this point.  Former 1^st rounder Barkevious Mingo has been less than stellar, Jabaal Sheard is a free agent, and former free agent addition Paul Kruger is not much of a pass rusher which means OLB is a distinct possibility.  Missouri DE/OLB Shane Ray didn’t work out at the combine but there is a lot to like about him and he can get to the QB.  Head coach Mike Pettine needs to generate a pass rush and Ray could be the answer.

13. New Orleans Saints (7-9) Trae Waynes   CB   Michigan St.

If at first you don’t succeed try (draft Patrick Robinson and Stanley Jean-Baptiste) try (sign free agent Keenan Lewis) again.  The Saints haven’t had a lot of luck in the draft with CBs and while Lewis had one good year he wasn’t quite as good last year much like the rest of the Saints defense.  There is a decent chance the Saints go after a pass rusher like Alvin Dupree or Owa Odighizuwa but that position is deeper than CB and Waynes looked great at the combine and solidified his spot as the top CB in the draft.  If the Saints can get the top CB at #13 overall that’s better value than the 4^th or 5^th best pass rusher.  The pass rusher thing could become a bigger need if Junior Galette’s legal issues remove him from the equation (by release or suspension).  Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs a better pass rush but he’ll be happy with a better cover corner.

14. Miami Dolphins (8-8) La’el Collins   OL   LSU

The Dolphins have cut Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson and are trying to trade Mike Wallace which basically leaves Jarvis Landry at WR so Jaelen Strong won’t be a surprise here.  The Dolphins definitely need to get Ryan Tannehill some weapons but more importantly they need to protect him.  Collins probably is best suited to play OG where the Dolphins definitely need help but LT Brandon Albert seems to get hurt a lot and having a guy like Collins who could swing out to LT would be optimal.  They need LBs too but there isn’t great value at this spot for the type of LB they want.  SS Landon Collins out of Alabama is also certainly a possibility given the Dolphins safety situation and this is about the right spot for him too.

15. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Arik Armstead   DE   Oregon

The 49ers need WR and CB help but their new head coach is their former d-line coach and he knows they need help there more.  Ray McDonald was released towards the end of last season because of his legal issues and Justin Smith might retire and even if he returns he’s a short-term solution.  Armstead would be a five-technique DE in the 49ers 3-4 defense and he’d be a good one.  It’s his natural position and if they can get Justin Smith to come back and mentor the kid for a year while he starts opposite him he could be fantastic.  Finding 6’7 300 lbs. guys as athletic as Armstead isn’t as easy as you might think so if they have a chance to grab him they should.  WR and CB can be addressed later.

16. Houston Texans (9-7) Alvin “Bud” Dupree   DE/OLB   Kentucky

The Texans need a QB like the human body needs oxygen but I don’t think it’s going to come from the draft.  Head coach Bill O’Brien seems interested in bringing back Ryan Mallet since he really didn’t get a good look at him last year due to injury and if that doesn’t happen Brian Hoyer isn’t heading back to the Browns with the signing of Josh McCown and O’Brien knows him too.  Brett Hundley is the only QB worth grabbing here and that’s not a fit.  It might seem strange that the Texans would grab an OLB/DE a year after taking Clowney with the first pick but the Texans have virtually no good depth at OLB and counting on Clowney is a risky proposition.  Clowney underwent micro-fracture surgery on his knee and that particular surgery doesn’t have a great return rate in the NFL.  Dupree is a guy that could line up at OLB or DE and get to the QB and even if by some miracle Clowney does come back Dupree can line up opposite him and they would have two top pass rushers at OLB.  CB is a need because Kareem McKenzie is a free agent and WR could become a bigger need if they jettison Andre Johnson but Dupree brings great value at #16 overall.

17. San Diego Chargers (9-7) Andrus Peat   OT   Stanford

The Chargers have a number of ways to go here considering their roster and some of the holes they need to fill.  The need a NT with some actual size and skill (all their current ones have one or the other but not both) and Eddie Goldman is a pretty good looking nose man.  They could use a CB unless they resign Brandon Flowers but he played well enough last year on a one year deal to possibly price himself out of San Diego.  Linebacker, both inside and out, could use some reinforcements.  I think they will choose to help out their o-line by grabbing Peat.  They just re-signed King Dunlap to play LT and grabbing Peat means they can shift DJ Fluker inside and insert Peat at RT.  That’s one draft pick upgrading two spots on the line and possibly making their running attack decent.  Peat has a very strong base because of his thick lower body and if he and Fluker line up next to each other they could form a pretty potent right side of the line.

18. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) TJ Clemmings   OT   Pittsburgh

The Chiefs have never been a team to go with conventional wisdom and while they are basically barren at WR the depth of this draft class along with the number of veterans that will be on the free agent market will allow Andy Reid to do what he loves to do, draft a lineman.  It’s a lot harder to find good lineman on the free agent market than WRs so Reid picks Clemmings who becomes his immediate starter at RT and has the added bonus that if former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher disappoints at LT Clemmings can slide right over.  I debated between Clemmings and C Cameron Erving from Florida St. because the Chiefs are likely to lose their starting C Rodney Hudson in free agency.  While either of those two make perfect sense in Andy Reid’s world I will say that if I were the Chiefs and Jaelen Strong was still on the board when this pick came up I would hire Usain Bolt to run the card up to the podium to pick him.  The Chiefs franchise has never had a WR with the talent of Strong that’s why Tony Gonzalez is their all-time leading receiver and he’s about 400 catches ahead of #2 Dwayne Bowe.

19. Cleveland (from Buffalo 9-7) Jaelen Strong   WR   Arizona St.

This would be a homerun pick on many levels for the Cleveland Brown.  After years of ups and downs with Josh Gordon they need the steadiness of Strong.  Whether it is newly signed Josh McCown or post rehab Johnny Manziel lining up under center they are going to need a legitimate WR on the outside.  Andrew Hawkins was a nice pickup last year as a slot receiver but with Gordon suspended for the year and unlikely to suit up for the Browns ever again and the potential free agent loss of TE Jordan Cameron the Browns need playmakers.  Strong had a fantastic workout at the combine and showed the speed scouts didn’t think he had to go along with his outstanding physical strength.  There is another part of the scouting report about Strong that the Browns need to consider; words like dependable, hard-working and work ethic show up repeatedly when discussing Strong.  High character and accountability are not usually major points of emphasis in scouting and drafting but for a team that’s had to deal with the Josh Gordon fiasco and now Johnny Manziel they actually mean something.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) Jalen Collins   CB   LSU

Chip Kelly is an offensive mastermind and now he’s in charge of personnel decisions in Philly and if there is a trade to be made to get up into the top 5 to grab Marcus Mariota I’m sure Kelly will make it.  He’s lucky that if he gives up a bevy of picks to get Mariota he still has Nick Foles to trade and get back at least a little something to lessen the sting.  I’m not forecasting trades at this point (I loathe to try) so I’m sticking with the Eagles here.  Kelly may be an offensive genius which should make it easy for him to spot the fact that his team’s defense was terrible last year.  They were second to last in pass defense and so a CB would make a lot of sense.  Jalen Collins had the second best CB combine workout (behind Trae Waynes) and Collins has length, speed and raw ability that the Eagles could use.  There are other defensive choices that would make sense since the Eagles could use a NT (Eddie Goldman), a pass rushing OLB since Marcus Smith was a non-factor last season (Odighizuwa or Eli Harold anyone?) or even SS Landon Collins because he’s too good to pass up.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) Owamagbe Odighizuwa   DE   UCLA

Carlos Dunlap did the lion’s share of the work at DE last season as he got virtually no help from Wallace Gilberry or Margus Hunt.  Owa would bring a lot of versatility to the Bengals defense and he could line up on either side and really give the offense someone to have to account for besides Dunlap.  You can make the argument that they need a DT replacement for Domata Peko more than they need an end so Goldman or Malcolm Brown or Carl Davis might seem more appropriate but Owa is too good to pass up at this point.  Youth in the secondary could be a good thing too as Leon Hall and Terrance Newman aren’t spring chickens but I think the Bengals will give Dre Kirkpatrick one more chance and they still think Darqueze Dennard is a player once he returns from injury.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) Landon Collins   SS   Alabama

The Steelers have been holding onto or bringing back too much age on their defense the past few years and while they have added some youth like DEs Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt and LBs Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones it is time for an overhaul.  They let long-time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau go so they could hold onto newly appointed defensive coordinator Kevin Butler and now it’s time to say goodbye to another Steeler stalwart.  SS Troy Polamalu is a Pittsburgh institution and a future Hall of Famer but he hasn’t been a great safety for years.  Landon Collins would be a great choice to take over for Polamalu and he’d bring a lot of the skills back that have left Polamalu’s game.  Collins is an intimidator who can back it up but he’s also a playmaker on the back end.  Youth, size, skill and presence is a nice combination in a new SS for the proud franchise and it’s a nice start to rebuilding a very aging secondary.

23. Detroit Lions (11-5) Carl Davis   DT   Iowa

The Lions are almost assuredly going to lose at least one of their starting DTs Ndamukong Suh or Nick Fairly and they could lose both.  Suh is the better player and is likely to get massive free agent offers so the Lions need to restock the position.  There is another issue in play here and that is the fact that the Lions are coming off an 11-5 season and look like they can be contenders in the NFC if they can sustain their momentum.  This is why I’m giving them Carl Davis instead of the younger DT Eddie Goldman.  Goldman has a pretty high ceiling but the Lions need someone to contribute right away and Davis could slide right in next to either Suh or Fairly if either returns.  Davis has a lot of playing time in the Big Ten under his belt so he won’t be intimidated and he’s a physically gifted and ready to play from day one.  The Lions don’t want to waste time waiting for someone to develop at this point they need an immediate contributor.  Davis had a good combine workout that followed an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and while he isn’t getting a lot of press at this point some team is going to take him right around this spot in the draft.

24. Arizona Cardinals (11-5) Marcus Peters   CB   Washington

The Cardinals are my choice for the dark horse team to grab Brett Hundley towards the end of the first round.  They can stash him on the bench and hope that Carson Palmer has one more year in him and let Bruce Arians guide Hundley’s development.  They found out last year what it was like without Palmer and don’t believe anything Arians or GM Steve Keim might say about Logan Thomas’ rosy future, it’s a smokescreen.  Barring them surprising everyone but me by taking Hundley they have some holes to fill on defense.  They let Darnell Dockett go after 475 years (that might be an exaggeration) with the team so they need a five-technique end but there isn’t one worth the pick.  They could grab Eli Harold to be their new pass rushing OLB but there is better value at CB.  Antonio Cromartie was on a one year deal and he’s likely to leave for greener pastures.  Patrick Peterson wasn’t his awesome self last year but he should bounce back.  Peters is an immense talent and forget the slightly slow 40 time at the combine he knows how to cover.  If there is any coach and any team that can harness Peters talent and get him to behave it’s Bruce Arians and the Cardinals.  Tyrann Mathieu has turned things around and Peters could blossom in the desert.

25. Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) DJ Humphries   OT   Florida

The Panthers were the unfortunate souls who won the worst division in football (NFC South) and make the playoffs regardless of their horrible record which is why they are picking so low.  One of the reasons Carolina’s season was so tough was because their offensive line was terrible, especially at LT.  Byron Bell started 15 games there and he’s already been informed he won’t be re-signed; it probably isn’t a good sign when your starting LT is shown the door and everyone breathes a sigh of relief.  I’m not a Humphries fan but even he’s a better option than Bell and at this point is the best possible LT on the board so the Panthers may take him.  Humphries has a lot of skills you like at LT and his athleticism is obvious but he’s going to need some good coaching.  He can’t possibly be the turnstile Bell was but he’ll need to work on his run blocking considering the Panthers like their power running game.

26. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) Cameron Erving   C   Florida St.

The Ravens need to get younger at OLB (Terrell Suggs is in year 13 and Elvis Dumervil is in year 10) but I’m not sure Eli Harold is a fit and there are a whole host of worthy second round candidates for that spot.  I seriously considered WR Dorial Green-Beckham given the fact that Torrey Smith is a potential free agent and Steve Smith is older than Suggs but after the Ray Rice incident (I don’t know what else to call it) drafting a guy with a domestic violence issue in his background is public relations suicide and the Ravens can’t touch him.  The Ravens offensive line is pretty good when healthy and undrafted rookie James Hurst was a find last year.  The one weak spot is at center where Jeremy Zuttah is fine but not spectacular.  Erving found his place this last year after moving to center from LT half way through the year due to injuries on the Florida St. line.  Erving started his career on the defensive line, had a good junior year at LT and blossomed as a center after his senior year at LT got off to a rough start.  Erving would solidify a very good offensive line for the Ravens.

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-4) Eddie Goldman   DT   Florida St.

The Cowboys have cut some good players and have some good free agents-to-be.  They are going to franchise tag Dez Bryant (an obvious move) and let DeMarco Murray test the free agent market.  That means many mock drafts are going to have the Cowboys jumping on a RB but if anyone knows you don’t need to take a RB in the first round it’s the team that just had former third round pick Murray run all over everyone.  They cut both Henry Melton and Nick Hayden and rendered the interior of the defensive line completely devoid of players.  Goldman needs some seasoning but he’s got a high ceiling and he will take up a whole lot of space in the middle of the line.  He will hopefully keep their playmaking LBs free to make plays and that would help their defense.  They could go RT with Ereck Flowers since they let Doug Free go or they could grab AJ Cann to replace Ronald Leary at guard but 4 first round offensive linemen in five years just doesn’t sound very Jerry Jones like.

28. Denver Broncos (12-4) Maxx Williams   TE   Minnesota

This pick makes way too much sense to actually happen because it is the perfect fit on the perfect team that desperately needs the position and Williams is the best at the position.  First of all the Broncos are not only likely to lose their top TE Julius Thomas to free agency because they can’t afford to keep him and Demaryius Thomas but the top two backups to Thomas are also free agents.  Secondly new head coach Gary Kubiak’s offense likes to feature a TE and he did so in both Houston and Baltimore with Owen Daniels a veteran Maxx Williams compares very favorably to.  Third if the Broncos are bringing Peyton Manning back he has always been fond of using the TE going back to his days with Dallas Clark in Indy up to using Thomas in Denver.  Finally Williams is the best all-around TE in this draft so unless the Broncos decide they want to take Devin Funchess and use him as a TE instead of a WR Williams is the pick.  Keeping the Broncos offense chugging right along is priority #1 because as long as they have Peyton Manning they have a chance in the AFC.

29. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) Melvin Gordon   RB   Wisconsin

The Colts need help on the right side of the offensive line, their linebacking corps could use some talent and they aren’t exactly stacked at safety but all of those needs take a back seat to the wasteland that is their running back depth chart.  Daniel “Boom” Herron finished the year with some nice games but the Trent Richardson experiment was a disaster and Ahmad Bradshaw cannot stay healthy so it’s time for a change.  Andrew Luck deserves a running game to take some pressure off of him and Melvin Gordon is a homerun hitter at tailback.  Gordon can fit into the high octane, big-play offense the Colts have and he will be a dynamic playmaker along with TY Hilton.  Having a legitimate RB, and with some reinforcements on the offensive line either later in the draft or through free agency, will make Luck that much more amazing.  Luck is a future MVP waiting to happen but the Colts will be a much tougher playoff team with an actual running game.

30. Green Bay Packers (12-4) Shaq Thompson   LB   Washington

Thompson had a less than stellar combine performance which is why he’s still available here at #30.  The Packers released AJ Hawk and Brad Jones and they should move Clay Matthews back to OLB so they need some ILBs otherwise they will be lining up with only 9 guys on the field.  Thompson is versatile and while he isn’t big he is talented and he could be very good in Dom Capers defense.  Thompson could be used in a variety of ways by Capers and his coverage skills could come in handy.  Green Bay may need a new RT if Bryan Bulaga leaves in free agency and they need some depth on the defensive line but Thompson is too good to pass up.  He wasn’t a workout star at the combine but the fact that he was as good as he was at Washington without ever focusing on one position means he could be fantastic once a team gets him, puts him at a position and lets him learn it completely.

31. Seattle Seahawks (12-4) Dorial Green-Beckham   WR   Missouri/Oklahoma

If there was ever a coach that wouldn’t shy away from taking on the biggest risk in the draft it’s Pete Carroll.  Green-Beckham is the gamble of the draft because he’s just as likely to end up suspended for pot smoking or some other transgression as he is to end up in a Pro Bowl.  Carroll has had players with issues since his days at USC so he knows how to handle them and one thing he won’t do is allow any issues Green-Beckham may have to effect his club overall (he won’t let one guy’s issues hurt his franchise the way the Browns have allowed Josh Gordon to affect theirs).  The Seahawks have a pretty good veteran group led by guys like Richard Sherman, Russell Wilson, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner and that environment could be very good for Green-Beckham.  I can’t bypass the issue that could arise given Green-Beckham’s past failed drug tests and the legality of marijuana in the state of Washington; someone will have to stay on him like a hawk (no pun intended).  As far as on the field goes Green-Beckham is light years ahead of most of the Seahawks current WRs and he would pair very nicely with Doug Baldwin and actually relieve some of the pressure on Baldwin.  At 6’5 237 lbs. and great speed Green-Beckham is a matchup nightmare for every team in the league.

32. New England Patriots (12-4) Todd Gurley   RB   Georgia

The Patriots are coming off a Super Bowl win but they still have a number of issues to deal with including the status of Darrelle Revis’ contract, the age of DT Vince Wilfork, the free agency of most of their RBs and the shape of their interior offensive line.  I think they will keep S Devin McCourty and eventually work out a deal to extend Darrelle Revis and lower his cap number.  If C Bryan Stork can stay healthy their interior offensive line should be fine.  Vince Wilfork isn’t getting any younger and even if they can coax one more year out of him guys like Malcolm Brown and Jordan Phillips have to be in play here but the biggest question marks are at RB.  Stevan Ridley is a free agent and there is no reason to bring him back, Shane Vereen is a free agent and he would be great to have back but it might be too expensive.  LaGarrette Blount returned late in the season and played fine but he isn’t consistently what the Patriots need.  Todd Gurley is a future star and he’s a power back that could be great with or without Vereen around.  Gurley can play all three downs and he would be a great player to have to take some of the offensive pressure off of Tom Brady as he gets older.  If the Patriots draft a CB or a WR I’m going to be sick to my stomach because Bill Belichick has a horrible track record with those two positions early in the draft.  Gurley is coming off a knee injury but it doesn’t look like that will slow him down in his rookie year.

The other first round possibilities:

QB Brett Hundley (UCLA) – If there is a trade towards the end of the first round it is likely going to be for someone coming up to grab Hundley.  He’s the only QB other than Winston and Mariota worth having in this draft.

WR Sammie Coates (Auburn) – Coates is a big, physical WR with good speed but his drops are a concern and it might push him down a little.  He’s fighting with a couple of other WRs to maybe make the first round but he looks like a solid round two selection to me.

WR Devin Smith (Ohio St.) – The deep ball specialist actually looked good doing everything at the combine and he’s in the mix for the end of the first round.  I couldn’t find a spot for him but that doesn’t mean someone else won’t.

WR/TE Devin Funchess (Michigan) – His 4.70 40 time at the combine has teams rethinking their stance on him being a WR but he really would need to bulk up a little to be a true TE.  The ‘tweener label is hurting him right now.

OT Ereck Flowers (Miami) – I couldn’t find a place for Flowers and he’s a little limited by the fact that he seems like strictly a RT at the moment.  His struggles during drills at the combine didn’t endear him to anyone but he would make a heck of second round RT for someone.

OG AJ Cann (South Carolina) – This is the one I struggled leaving out of the first round because he’s so good.  I really considered him for the Patriots at #32 but couldn’t pull the trigger.  I won’t be the least bit surprised if he goes in the first round and he might make my next mock draft depending on some free agency moves.

OLB Eli Harold (Virginia) – Harold had a very good workout at the combine but for some reason I still see him as a tough fit for a number of teams.  He’s a very good pass rusher but I think he might struggle doing other LB things so I see him in the second round not the first.

LB Benardrick McKinney (Mississippi St.) – There is a very good chance I missed on putting him with the Green Bay Packers in round one because I like Shaq Thompson so much.  McKinney would be a great fit at ILB in the Packers 3-4 defense so he might end up in the first round.

DT Malcolm Brown (Texas) – Brown could easily replace Davis or Goldman in any first round scenarios I just like the other two better.  Brown won’t fall far if he falls out of the first round because he’s a real talent.

DT Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma) – The 6’5 329 lbs. giant has the size everyone wants in a DT but he was only a redshirt sophomore this last season meaning he’s still pretty raw.  He wasn’t stellar at the combine and teams will go back and look at the tape and see a guy that didn’t dominate like you would think.  He’ll get drafted on potential alone but there are better DTs who are ready to contribute immediately and Phillips will need some time.

CB PJ Williams (Florida St.) – He’s a very talented cover man but his workout at the combine didn’t impress like others so he might fall and since this CB draft class isn’t great he may be available in the second round.  He’s probably a steal in the second round but that happens from time to time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quarterbacks

Good News:

Jameis Winston’s passing display over the weekend showed that he may actually be able to be a starting QB in the NFL, possibly as early as next season.  Winston made NFL caliber throws and looked good doing it.  He ran slow in the 40 yard dash but that was expected because he isn’t a running QB and he is nowhere near the athlete Marcus Mariota is.  Everyone always wants to compare prospects to previous NFL players (I love to do it too) and the nice comparison (I think) for Winston was Ben Roethlisberger (I’m not sure if the unproven sexual assault allegation was meant to be a part of that comparison or just an unfortunate coincidence).  He’s big and strong and can move around in the pocket well enough to avoid a sack (I think that was the intended comparison).  The not so nice comparison was to Byron Leftwich (he runs about that well) or JaMarcus Russell (he would be that big of a bust if he tanks).

If you’re the Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota made it possible for you to take him and not have everyone think you’re nuts.  Mariota showed off his impressive athleticism by running the fastest 40 time of any QB (4.53) and he looked pretty good throwing the ball even if he wasn’t quite on Winston’s level yet.  Mariota has a lot farther to come than Winston when it comes to NFL passing but the fact that he wasn’t that far behind and he hasn’t been able to fully workout because of a shoulder injury from the National Championship game means he could get there sooner than anyone thinks.  Mariota might not go to Tennessee #2 overall but he just put himself in the conversation.

Brett Hundley looked good enough to possibly be a first rounder when we get to April.  There are teams towards the end of the first round like Arizona, Dallas and Pittsburgh that have aging or injury prone QBs with no real heir apparent on the roster and grabbing a guy like Hundley isn’t such a crazy idea.  You could stash him for a year or two (or three) and then have someone to go to that already knows something about being an NFL QB (ask the Packers how that worked out for them).  Hundley would be best with a year to get some reps under center and learn an NFL offense and if he learned under a coach like Bruce Arians in Arizona for a year he could be scary good.  Another thing I really like about Hundley is that he was one of the more articulate players at the combine and he comes off as the type of guy you want as the face of your franchise.  He and Mariota have that in common.

Bad News:

While Bryce Petty looked good enough to solidify his spot as the fourth QB in this draft it was as much a product of the underwhelming nature of this class as it was him.  This is a frighteningly thin group of QBs and if more than six (maybe?) QBs get drafted this season I’ll be shocked.  I wouldn’t pick any outside of the top 4 but it won’t be that low of a number.  Garrett Grayson is #5 and he didn’t even work out at the combine and I’m not even going to venture a guess on #6.

Running backs

Good News:

Northern Iowa RB David Johnson looked seriously impressive this weekend and he kept the buzz from his Senior Bowl performance rolling right along.  Johnson measured in a 6’1 224 lbs. and he ran a 4.5 40 and had a vertical jump of over 41 inches.  His tape shows a good pass catcher and solid runner so the speed and explosion he showed in the drills should convince NFL teams that he can actually translate that to the field.  He probably had the best day overall of all of the running backs.

Michigan St. RB Jeremy Langford ran the fastest 40 time of all the RBs which probably moves him up into a mid-round grade. Florida St.’s Karlos Williams ran 4.48 and he weights 230 lbs. so that should help him after a disappointing season.

Bad News:

Almost all the RBs looked pedestrian with those few notable exceptions.  Melvin Gordon ran a 4.52 40 and while that isn’t slow that doesn’t coincide with the speed you see on film from him.  Gordon is supposed to be the guy that runs away from people on his 60 yard runs but his 40 time didn’t show that.  Having Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman sitting out drills due to injury didn’t help the group overall as they are two of the better prospects.  Ameer Abdullah was seen as a top prospect possibility and then he ran 4.6 in the 40, that might not be a problem except Abdullah is a 5’8 205 lbs. and being small and slow is a bad combination.  Miami’s Duke Johnson was the other smaller back like Abdullah and he only ran a 4.54 so he wasn’t blazing either and that could hurt him too.

Random Thoughts:

In general the RB group was not fast but I think there is an explanation why.  All of the legitimate top prospects in this RB class are big backs with good size including the “speedy” Gordon.  Gordon weights 215 lbs. so he isn’t small at all.  Take a look at the weights for some of the other top guys; Jay Ajayi 221, David Johnson 224, Karlos Williams 230, TJ Yeldon 226 and even though he didn’t work out Todd Gurley is 222.  I explained in my pre-combine rankings about how the RB position in the NFL has changed and bigger backs have taken over so even though most of these guys didn’t break 4.5 in the 40 I still think there are plenty of good RBs in this draft.

Wide Receivers

Good News:

Kevin White lit up the joint and sent his stock soaring.  I’m still a big Amari Cooper fan and he’s more polished than White but when a guy is 6’3 215 lbs. and runs a 4.35 in the 40 everyone takes notice.  Most notably would be the Raiders, Jets and Rams who all have top 10 picks.  White has a legitimate chance to pass Cooper because of his workout and even though Al Davis passed away a few years ago his ghost might just be too temped to grab a WR with that kind of size/speed combination.  I’ve liked White all year long but he just aced his job interview.

Chris Conley out of Georgia went to the combine as a no name player hoping to get some notice and he succeeded.  He was fast (4.35 in the 40) explosive (45 inches in the vert, top mark of the combine) and he looked good in all the other drills.  He wasn’t productive at Georgia like these numbers would lead you to believe but he’ll make every scout go back and rewatch every one of his catches this season.  He went from afterthought to drafted in the blink of an eye.

Jaelen Strong went into the combine as the guy on the cusp of the first round but was seen as a physical WR with decent speed.  4.44 seconds after he started his 40 yard run that all changed.  Most scouts and evaluators have a pretty good idea what players’ times are going to be in the 40 and when a guy surprises you and runs faster he gets a buzz going.  Strong wasn’t seen as fast WR but 4.44 seconds for a guy built like him opened some eyes.  He’s going in the first round.

Dorial Green-Beckham still has lots of questions to answer about his off the field issues and teams will have to make a determination if they want to draft him based on that evaluation because everybody should want to draft the player that worked out on the field in Indy.  Green-Beckham is 6’5 237 lbs. and he ran the 40 in 4.49 seconds which is insane.  He is basically Calvin Johnson physically and no one wants to pass on that, unless he’s a total headcase.

One more quick note, Nelson Agholor out of USC is still underrated and he had a damn good combine.  To me he passed Funchess for sure and someone is going to get a steal in the second round.

Bad News:

It’s a great thing when you best the expectations of everyone at the combine the way that Jaelen Strong did, the inverse is also true.  A stunning failure that makes every scout question everything he’s seen of you is not what you want from the biggest job interview of your life.  Michigan WR Devin Funchess just sent every scout back to the film on him but not in the way Chris Conley did.  Funchess ran the 40 in 4.70 seconds which is far too slow for teams that want him to be an outside WR.  Funchess wants to be a WR but his time is going to make teams re-think that and he may end up at TE.  He probably should be a TE and it might be best for his career.  At 6’4 232 lbs. he could be a move TE in the right offense, it didn’t help Funchess that shortly after he ran his 40 Green-Beckham stepped up to the line an inch taller and five pounds heavier and was .21 seconds faster than him.  Funchess lost ground to Strong, Green-Beckham and a few other WRs if he stays at that position. He is also hurt a bit by the fact that he is a small TE prospect and not a large WR prospect.

Tight Ends

Good News:  Devin Funchess might be a TE now.

Bad News: Devin Funchess might be the best TE now.

Random Thoughts:  Maxx Williams did nothing to hurt his status at the combine but he didn’t exactly light it up.  He isn’t an uber-athlete he is just a solid all-around TE.  Not a single TE did anything to distinguish themselves and right now it’s a dogfight between TE, QB and Safety for which position is the worst one in the draft.  Teams that need a QB, TE or Safety better grab them fast because Winston, Mariota, Hundley, Williams, Funchess and Landon Collins might be the only ones in their position groups that should go in the first 3 rounds (that’s 6 prospects in 3 rounds).

Offensive Linemen

Good News:

Brandon Scherff had the third fastest 40 time of all the OTs and the fourth fastest of all O-linemen and while he only did 23 reps on the bench press I didn’t read a word anywhere questioning his strength (not surprising).  Scherff is not considered an elite LT prospect but in this draft neither is anyone else so he still sits atop most teams’ offensive linemen boards.  I think Scherff showed people enough athleticism to make teams think he can be a LT if need be but he’s more likely to get drafted by a team seeking a RT with the possibility to shift inside and be an elite guard.

This draft has a lot of solid o-line prospects but just doesn’t have an elite LT, sure-fire top 5 kind of player.  La’el Collins, Andrus Peat, TJ Clemmings, Ereck Flowers, Daryl Williams, Ty Sambrailo, Jake Fisher and DJ Humphries can all be solid OTs in the league.  AJ Cann, Tre Jackson, Ali Marpet, Cameron Erving and Laken Tomlinson make up a very nice group inside too.

Ali Marpet the Division III prospect out of Hobart (don’t look at me I have no idea where that is) had a really good Senior Bowl and followed that up with the fastest 40 time of all the offensive linemen and he has a legitimate shot at a second round pick.  It’s a huge transition from DIII to the NFL but Marpet more than held his own at the Senior Bowl and combine just showed off he physical skills that made that possible.  He’s a feel good story for draft day, you’re welcome ESPN and the NFL Network.

Bad News:

There is no elite LT in this draft.  Sorry to the Buccaneers, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Falcons, Giants and Rams all teams in the top 10 that would have to seriously consider grabbing an elite LT if one were available, better luck next year.

There is a video from the drills portion of the combine featuring Ereck Flowers lined up as a RT and doing a kick-out drill and to say he gets beat badly would be a massive understatement.  Flowers is a better prospect than this (seriously he never gets within 4 feet of laying a hand on the defender, it’s embarrassing) and if I were him I would spend the next two months trying to scrub that tape from existence.

Random Thoughts:

There was this buzz at the beginning of the combine that Florida junior OT DJ Humphries will jump up and show that he’s worthy of being a first round draft pick.  It started well for him at the weigh-in as Humphries came in at 307 lbs. which is 12-15 lbs. heavier than his playing weight for the Gators.  The knock on Humphries has been that he was too light as no one in the NFL is looking to start a LT that’s 292-295 lbs.  He showed well in drills and in the 40 even with the extra weight and if teams go off of his workouts he has a legitimate chance to go in the first round even after he was given a “return to school” designation by the NFL draft advisory board.  Here’s my issue, watch the tape not the workout, Humphries has a long way to go to be a good NFL OT let alone an elite one.  Even with extra weight I’m not sure he’ll ever be a dominant run blocker because he doesn’t have the drive for it.  He is extremely athletic and that’s great but he uses it as a crutch and doesn’t stay sound fundamentally when he blocks and that will get him beat in the NFL.  If a team has a good tough o-line coach and a year to work with him they could have something but he’s raw and needs time.  There are a number of solid OTs that can help right away in this class but I wouldn’t count on Humphries to be one of those guys.  Of course there is a chance that the dumpster fire that was the Florida Gators offense for the past couple of years was just masking how good Humphries really was.

Pass Rushers (DE/OLB)

Good News:

Dante Fowler is a 261 lbs. menace and he may end up being a top 3 pick.  Fowler was fast, fluid and explosive and his relentlessness and aggression are obvious on tape and everyone is raving about him.  I love Fowler’s versatility and I think he proved he can handle being a DE, an OLB or both and the teams at the top of the first round like Tennessee and Jacksonville have to seriously consider him.

Vic Beasley was impressive because he weighed in at 245 lbs. which is a good 15-20 lbs. heavier than he played at Clemson and yet he ran a 4.53 40 and had a vertical of 41 inches.  Size, speed and explosion are exactly what teams want from a pass rusher and Beasley just launched himself into a Von Miller comparison.  Beasley is a legitimate top 10 pick and if the Redskins grab him at #5 overall as Brian Orakpo’s replacement I won’t be the least bit shocked.

Owamagbe Odighizuwa is a bit of a freak.  At 6’3 and almost 270 lbs. he ran 4.62 in the 40 and had a 39 inch vertical leap.  He just went from possible first round pick to mid-first round pick without a doubt.  Owa (that’s what I’m calling him from now on) showed the versatility to play some OLB (even at 270 lbs.) and he’s just too good of an athlete and too versatile of a player to fall very far.

Alvin “Bud” Dupree out of Kentucky was even more impressive than Owa.  Dupree is 6’4 270 lbs. he ran a 4.56 40 and had a 42 inch vertical.  That’s an insane combination and what’s even more insane is that while Dupree is most likely a 4-3 DE he actually looks really comfortable dropping into coverage.  He still is a little raw as a pass rusher and he needs more moves but he is a special athlete.

Bad News:

Randy Gregory didn’t have a bad combine and by most accounts he looked good in drills even the LB drills which is not his natural position.  There’s the issue for Gregory.  He is 6’5 but he only weighed in at 235 lbs. and while I’m sure he dropped weight to be faster and more mobile for the LB drills it might backfire.  Gregory is best suited for 4-3 DE and 235 lbs. is way too light for that.  While his 4.64 40 and 36.5 inch vertical were solid numbers they weren’t spectacular and unfortunately for Gregory his position group had some very impressive prospects.  While Gregory’s performance shouldn’t have hurt him the fact that Fowler, Beasley, Dupree and Owa were so spectacular might have.

Linebackers (non-pass rushing group)

Good News:

That sound you here is crickets.

Bad News:

The top LB at this position is supposed to be Shaq Thompson from Washington but he measured only 6’0 228 lbs. and then he ran a 4.64 40 with only a 33.5 inch vertical.  If you’re going to be an undersized LB you need to be fast and explosive, I still like Thompson but he hurt his stock with this performance.  He’s a back-end of the first round prospect now not a first half of the first round guy.  He actually didn’t have the worst day.  TCU’s Paul Dawson had an abysmal day.  Dawson is only 6’0 235 lbs. so he’s not big, he had a 28 inch vertical so he’s not explosive and he ran 4.93 in the 40 he’s not fast.  Just for comparison Hobart OG Ali Marpet was 6’4 307 lbs. and he ran a 4.98 and had a 30.5 inch vert, it’s not a good sign when the DIII OG that’s more than 70 lbs. heavier than you is comparable.  Some say Miami MLB Denzel Perryman had a tough day running 4.78 and jumping only 32 inches but I’ve known all along that Perryman was two-down run stuffing thumper and not much else so I’m not surprised by it.

Defensive Backs

Good News:

I think Trae Waynes got sick of hearing about how Marcus Peters would be the top CB in this draft if not for the character questions and so he went out and made everyone talk about him.  He blazed the 40 in 4.31 seconds and looked incredible skilled and athletic.  He may have just put himself into the conversation for a top 15 pick, that’s a good day at the combine.

Jalen Collins looked good too and he ran a sub 4.5 40 and he just put himself in position to fight for the #2 spot behind Waynes.  Collins is raw but coachable and he stood out.

Ronald Darby, Charles Gaines and Senquez Golson all ran fast and put themselves in position to move up a round or two and that will make teams happy because while the star power might be missing from the CB group there is some solid depth that looked good in Indy.

Bad News:

As bad as Paul Dawson’s combine showing was his former TCU teammate S Chris Hackett tried to make him look good.  Hackett left TCU early and after his workout in Indy he is likely to be one of those early entry prospects that goes undrafted.  He is 6’0 195 lbs. which is small for a safety and then he ran a 4.81 40 which is ridiculously slow.  If you want to be a safety in the NFL at less than 200 lbs. you better have great speed.  I said the safety class was bad but considering before the combine Hackett was one of the more intriguing prospects things just got a little worse, I didn’t think that was possible.

Random Thoughts:

Three of the top CB prospects; Marcus Peter, PJ Williams and Quinten Rollins all ran fairly slow 40 times.  Peters (4.53) Williams (4.57) and Rollins (4.57) all play faster than these times and they are skilled athletes with good footwork and instincts.  These times mean that Waynes is certainly ahead of them and Jalen Collins probably passes then on some boards but I’m still very impressed with Peters and think he’s a top player in the NFL and Williams and Rollins can be too.  This is one of those times where the combine result doesn’t change my view of certain prospects.  It’s comparable to how Brandon Scherff only did 23 reps on the bench press but no thinks he isn’t strong enough because we all know better, these guys are plenty fast enough.

 

 

2015 Draft Edge Pass Rushers DE/OLB Rankings

The line between defensive ends and pass rushing outside linebackers is as blurry as ever and whether a player ends up as a standup linebacker or a hand on the ground defensive end depends on his skillset and the team he plays on.  The other type of defensive end is the 3-4 defense kind like JJ Watt otherwise known as the five-technique and there are few of those in this draft too.  The edge pass rusher might be the deepest position in this entire draft and there will be top quality well into the second round and probably into the third and possibly fourth round.  Pass rushers are always at a premium and this year’s group could have some special players and while there is much versatility in many of these prospects they usually fit one position better than the other.  I would list out the teams that need a pass rusher but every team needs pass rushers.

1. Randy Gregory   Sr.   Nebraska   DE

Gregory’s best position would probably be as a DE in a 4-3 defense but he’s athletic enough to line up at OLB if a team like the Titans takes him.  He is a natural pass rusher and he would need work on the other aspects of the LB position but he is likely a top 3 pick and someone is going to get instant help getting after the QB.  At 6’6 245 lbs. Gregory isn’t the stoutest DE prospect and he needs to add some weight in order to hold up to the rigors of the NFL but he has the frame to do so.

2. Dante Fowler   Jr.   Florida   OLB

Fowler might be the most versatile of all of these pass rushers as he could be a DE, an OLB or slide inside to DT on passing downs.  At 6’2 261 lbs. Fowler is a different breed than most as he isn’t a long lean speed rusher he is more the short squatty power player with multiple moves.  He doesn’t really look the part but he has good pass rushing instincts and can play from anywhere on the field.  Fowler is relentless and never gives up on a play.

3. Shane Ray   Jr.   Missouri   OLB

A year ago no one knew the name Shane Ray as he sat behind Michael Sam and Kony Ealy for the Tigers.  I’m always a little leery of one year wonders but he was blocked by two very good football players so it’s understandable.  Ray lined up at DE but he’s built more like an OLB and I think he could transition to that position pretty well.  He’s 6’3 245 lbs. so even though he is a bit light I think he could hold his own at DE given his speed and athleticism.  Ray is just scratching the surface of his talent and he could be one of the better pass rushers from this draft when it’s all said and done.

4. Vic Beasley   Sr.   Clemson   OLB

Listing Beasley as an OLB is simply a product of his size at 6’2 235 lbs.  He is the best pure pass rusher in the draft from either position and he could be used as a DE in a 4-3.  As a DE his size might seem like a detriment but when he gets on the field he just makes plays.  He reminds me of Elvis Dumervil simply because he has a remarkable first step and seems unblockable at times.

5. Alvin “Bud” Dupree   Sr.   Kentucky   DE

At 6’4 267 lbs. Dupree actually fits the traditional 4-3 DE position mold better than the guys above yet he actually possesses some skills that fit the OLB position.  He isn’t bad dropping into coverage and his footwork is pretty solid.  He has good moves and great burst as a pass rusher but he isn’t great when an offensive lineman gets his hands on him.  He needs to work on disengaging from blockers but he’s a first round lock in this draft.

6. Arik Armstead   Jr.   Oregon   DE

Every 3-4 defensive team is looking for the next JJ Watt and while it is unlikely to find another one of him Armstead certainly looks the part.  At 6’7 296 lbs. Armstead is big, physical and athletic and he’s the prototypical five-technique DE.  Watt is the exception to the rule that 3-4 DEs don’t rush the passer very much and Armstead has some pass rushing skills he can use.  He can also set the edge and hold his spot.  It’s unlikely he would play 4-3 DE but with the number of teams running a 3-4 defense seemingly increasing every year he probably won’t have to worry about that.

7. Owamagbe Odighizuwa   Sr.   UCLA   DE

I’m glad this is a blog and not a podcast because I can look up how to spell this guy’s name and I don’t have to pronounce it.  Odighizuwa is a power DE end with a muscular frame at 6’4 266 lbs.  He doesn’t have the size of Armstead but he can be a five-technique DE if need be because of his sheer strength.  He is more of a base DE than a pure pass rusher but from time to time he can get to the QB.  UCLA played a multiple front defense so Odighizuwa has experience in many positions.  He missed the 2013 season because of hip surgery so his combine medical check will be big for him.

8. Danielle Hunter   Jr.   LSU   DE

Hunter is tall and lean but he is stronger than he looks.  He has the frame to really fill out as he gets older and he has long arms which makes him a hazard in the passing lanes.  Unfortunately he isn’t a great natural pass rusher and once he fills out his frame he might be better suited as a base end or a five-technique player.  Hunter looks the part he just doesn’t possess the natural skills but he is still young and with some good coaching he could be a good player in a few years.

9. Eli Harold   Jr.  Virginia   DE

Harold plays the game like his hair is on fire and that’s both a good thing and a bad thing.  It’s good because he is relentless rushing the passer but it’s bad because he sometimes gets out of control and plays undisciplined.  He has a quick first step and great up field burst and that helps him against strong offensive linemen regardless of the fact that Harold isn’t a very big DE.  His size looks like an OLB at 6’4 235 lbs. but his skillset is built for the DE position.

10. Nate Orchard   Sr.   Utah   DE

Orchard played DE and OLB in college rushing the passer from both spots but his future is at DE.  He went to the Senior Bowl and played well at DE while not looking at all comfortable at OLB.  Orchard has natural pass rushing instincts which make up for his lack of elite speed and strength.  He doesn’t have very good hand usage and he has virtually no bull rush to speak of because he just doesn’t have the power.  He will be a useful pass rusher who needs a NFL strength program to get him where he needs to be physically.

I said this draft class was deep and I wasn’t kidding.  Outside of the top 10 I’ve listed above there are at least seven other DE/OLB pass rushers that could go in the first two rounds and should certainly be off the board before the end of the third. 

OLB Hau’oli Kikaha (Washington) – Relentless speed rusher.  Intelligent, versatile player.

OLB Lorenzo Mauldin (Louisville) – Won’t go as high as his teammate from last year’s draft surprise 1^st rounder Marcus Smith (Eagles) but I think he could be a better player.

DE Markus Golden (Missouri) – The other defensive end from Mizzou is shorter and more compact than Ray but he will find a place because of his overall skills and versatility.

DE Mario Edwards (Florida St.) – A base DE or a five-technique player Edwards is a powerful player that isn’t an elite pass rusher but he’s exactly what a lot of teams need.

OLB Kwon Alexander (LSU) – Doesn’t have the frame his teammate Hunter has at 6’2 227 lbs. but he can get to the QB and play LB more naturally.

DE Trey Flowers (Arkansas) – 6’2 268 lbs. is a short and squatty DE but Flowers brings strength and an ability to collapse the pocket.

DE Preston Smith (Mississippi St.) – A big DE who could play as a rush end, a base end or grow into a five-technique and bring something to each one of those potential positions.

2015 Draft Linebacker Prospect Rankings (Non pass rushing group)

After combining the pass rushing LBs with the DE position and just calling them edge rushers I’m not left with a lot of LB prospects to go over so I’m combining them as most are versatile enough to either play outside or middle in a 4-3 defense or inside in a 3-4 defense.  Some could rush the passer and one very special one could even be a strong safety.  It’s a short but talented list.

1. Shaq Thompson   Jr.   Washington

Thompson is the single most versatile player in the entire draft because he could be strongside LB in a 4-3, he could be a weakside LB in a 4-3, he might be able to play middle LB in a 4-3, he could certainly play inside LB in 3-4, NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock has Thompson rated as the second best safety in the draft and if all else fails his NFL team could do what they did at Washington and play him at running back.  Thompson is a special athlete who has yet to focus on one position and once he does he’s going to be electric.  I think he ends up playing on the outside for a 4-3 team but he might end up being a Kam Chancellor type SS for someone and he could probably make the Pro Bowl.  He is everything you want in a defender and depending on which team gets him he will probably be my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year.  Every team that passes on him is going to regret it.

2. Benardrick McKinney   Jr.   Mississippi St.

McKinney was that guy in on every defensive play Mississippi St. made during their fantastic year.  He’s tall and a little lanky at 6’4 249 lbs. but he makes it work.  He isn’t a smooth athlete and he’s probably best suited at ILB in a 3-4 where his athletic deficiencies can be somewhat covered up.  McKinney has some scheme versatility but he isn’t going to be playing free safety or tailback.  He always seems to be in the action and he’s a solid tackler.

3. Eric Kendricks   Sr.   UCLA

Kendricks will end up at either ILB or MLB for whoever is lucky enough to draft him.  He has versatility because UCLA plays multiple front defenses and Kendricks has been in that defense for quite some time.  He could end up at weakside LB because of his lack of size at just 6’0 230 lbs. and his sideline-to-sideline chase ability would work there but I think he can add some good weight and play in the middle.  He’s a good tackler and there are not enough of those in the NFL these days.

4. Paul Dawson   Sr.   TCU

At 6’2 230 lbs. Dawson is long and lean and he isn’t stout enough to play on the inside but he’s an aggressive downhill player on the outside of a 4-3 defense.  Dawson is slippery and that’s what makes him so hard to block and why he can so easily get into an opponent’s backfield and disrupt an offense.  Even when blockers get their hands on him he is very good at disengaging even though he doesn’t use power to do so.  There is a report that Dawson has “character issues” but there doesn’t seem to be much to that report other than innuendo and teams will have a chance to interview him at the combine.  Until there is confirmation of actual incidents I’m not willing to downgrade him.

5. Denzel Perryman   Sr.   Miami

Perryman is the old school thumper that most teams have gone away from in recent years but with the proliferation of power running backs in the NFL every team should have one like him.  At 5’11 244 lbs. he’s built like a fire hydrant and he is a two-down MLB and special team’s player only.  He plays with a toughness that you want out of a MLB when he’s facing down Marshawn Lynch or Eddie Lacy but he has no business on the field during passing down.  Perryman is a leader and a grinder and while he lacks versatility and is a bit of a one-trick pony he’s exceptionally skilled at that one trick.

2015 Draft Cornerback Prospect Rankings

Great CBs are at a premium in the NFL and every team is trying to find the next great one.  This year could be a huge disappointment.  There are some solid prospects but two of the best were waylaid by serious character questions and a late season injury.  There is some nice raw talent and a number of players from smaller schools that could make a move during the combine or individual workouts.  The only consensus I can see amongst the scouting world is that there is no consensus past Trae Waynes being the top player.  Oh and that consensus is built around the fact that he’s not the headache Marcus Peters might be.

1. Trae Waynes   Jr.   Michigan St.

Waynes former Spartan teammate Darqueze Dennard was the third CB taken in last year’s draft at #24 overall and this year Waynes may be the first CB taken but it might not be much higher than 24^th overall.  Waynes isn’t an elite prospect that we are used to seeing go in the top 10 of the draft.  He has good size at 6’1 but he likes to put his hands on WRs too much and in the NFL he’ll get flagged for it even more than he did in college.  He matches up better with taller WRs because he doesn’t flip his hips well enough to keep up with smaller shiftier WRs.  Waynes has a lot to work with in terms of raw ability but he isn’t stepping into a starring role for any defense.

2. Marcus Peters   Jr.   Washington

On talent alone Peters is the top CB in this draft and probably a top 12 pick so the fact that he might last until the last 8-10 picks of the first round should tell you something about the character questions.  When you are an immense talent like Peters and your coach kicks you off the team in the middle of the season alarms sound all around the NFL.  He was suspended for a game for an outburst during a game and eventually booted for multiple run-ins with the coaching staff, he isn’t what you would describe as coachable.  It’s too bad because his raw skills are excellent and he can flip his hips and run as well as anyone.  He has prototypical CB size and with good coaching he could be one of the best in the NFL.  Peters is immature and hotheaded and if someone can get his emotional state in order he’s the best CB in this draft.

3. PJ Williams   Jr.   Florida St.

Williams is a fantastic deep cover corner with the ability to turn and run and keep up with anyone.  He has great instincts and anticipation on deep throws and seems to rise to the occasion when put on the spot.  Williams sometimes focuses too much on the deep throw and gets beat by the comeback or back shoulder throw and he isn’t as good covering short routes or in zone coverage.  He’s a fantastic athlete who should just get better with time.

4. Quinten Rollins   Sr.   Miami (OH)

The rawest prospect with enormous upside Rollins played basketball for four years at Miami (OH) and then decided to play football and he was very good.  He has great foot speed and ability to change directions from his years on the hardwood.  Despite his inexperience he seems to play the game very physically and is one of the better CBs at supporting the run and actually tackling.  He likes to look for the big play and gambles sometimes and his lack of technique and experience leaves him open to double moves so he can be beat.  His upside is incredible and while he probably doesn’t step in as a starter right away a good secondary coach could turn him into a top CB in a few years.

5. Jalen Collins   Jr.   LSU

Collins is a raw prospect with great height and athleticism and he has the size to matchup with bigger WRs.  He struggles with smaller quicker WRs and he probably isn’t going to want anyone to watch his tape against Alabama’s Amari Cooper.  He’s willing to get physical in run support but isn’t as physical at the line when jamming a WR.  He plays too tall and he doesn’t sink his hips well enough when backpedaling but that’s a teachable trait.  Collins needs some time but he has the tools to be a good CB.

The Injury Exception – Ifo Ekpre-Olomu   Sr.   Oregon

Ekpre-Olomu was one of the best CBs in college football the last two seasons and then he tore up his knee during practice before the Rose Bowl.  If he was healthy he would probably be 3^rd on this list but he is most likely going to miss the 2015 season because of his rehab.  The medical testing done at the combine and in individual team visits will be crucial to Ekpre-Olomu’s draft stock.  If it is just an ACL tear that isn’t devastating news given the advancements in rehabbing that particular injury but if it’s more severe that will hurt.  If he has to take a “redshirt” year in 2015 that’s not ideal but he’s still worth having for down the road.  He is arguably the best all-around CB in this draft and even though he doesn’t have ideal size he has never let that hinder him in any way.

There are a couple of other players from schools outside the Power 5 conferences to go along with Quentin Rollins that could be very solid prospects; Jacoby Glenn (Central Florida) and DJoun Smith (Florida Atlantic).  There are two prospects from Power 5 schools but not traditionally strong football schools; Steven Nelson (Oregon St.) and Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest).  Finally there are five guys from major football schools that are solid prospects but they probably aren’t difference makers right away; Alex Carter (Stanford), Kevin White (TCU), Ronald Darby (Florida St.), Josh Shaw (USC) and Senquez Golson (Ole Miss).

2015 Draft Safety Prospect

1. Landon Collins   Jr.   Alabama

There is only one safety prospect of note at this point and it is Collins.  Shaq Thompson might be a safety but I see him as a LB and Cody Prewitt of Mississippi and Anthony Harris of Virginia just don’t quite do it for me yet.  Collins is a very good prospect when used correctly and by correctly I mean as an intimidating SS in the middle of a defense.  Collins is good enough in coverage but he makes his money destroying everything in front of him.  He played a little heavy in 2014 and if he lost a little bit of weight I think he would be more effective. That might scare teams because he could lose his punch but I think he could make up the lost weight with gained velocity because he would be faster.  Collins is at least a round better than the next best safety and that might push his value up.

 

2015 Draft Offensive Line Rankings

Outside of a franchise QB the one position every team desires on their offense is an elite left tackle to protect their franchise QB’s blindside, unfortunately this draft doesn’t provide a surefire franchise left tackle prospect.  There are a number of very good prospects that could become elite blindside protectors but there is not an Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden at the top of the draft.  Given the nature of this year’s offensive line group I’m going to give you the top 12 offensive line prospects regardless of position because many of these players could project to multiple positions and that matters in these rankings.  Even with the unsure nature of the top prospects in this draft it is still conceivable that a number of them will be drafted higher than they are projected because of need.  You can make a pretty compelling argument that every team in the top 11 has a big need on the offensive line and while it is highly unlikely an offensive lineman goes in the top 4 once Washington is on the clock at #5 all bets are off.

1. Brandon Scherff   Sr.   Iowa   OT

The Outland trophy winner from this last season is well known for his impressive strength and he is one of the most devastating run blockers in the game.  Scherff doesn’t have the classic LT build at 6’5 320 lbs. and he will struggle against the best speed rushers if he plays LT but if he gets his hands on a defender he won’t be beat.  Scherff is a mauler with a nasty attitude and many teams project him at either RT or inside at guard.  He could be a road grader at RT for someone and worst case scenario is he becomes an elite guard for the next ten years.  The reason I’m ranking Scherff first is because he has the least downside of any of the prospects and he has a decent chance at being a starting LT in the NFL on day one.  There are plenty of teams that are starting far inferior players at one of their OT spots.  I have a feeling Scherff will have a pretty good combine overall and something tells me he might put on a show on the bench press.

2. La’el Collins   Sr.   LSU   OT/OG

Collins is the next closest thing to a sure thing but he is almost guaranteed to end up inside at guard I only list him at tackle too because he could be a RT for a team in need.  His body style is better suited to the inside of the line and he will likely excel at OG.  Collins has played LT at LSU so in a pinch he could be used there or at RT but his value is as an immediate starter for a team looking to solidify the interior of their offensive line much the way the Zack Martin did as a rookie for the Cowboys this year.

3. Andrus Peat   Jr.   Stanford   OT

Peat is the first true tackle on the board because at 6’7 312 lbs. he would be an anomaly at guard.  Peat’s junior season at Stanford wasn’t as good as many expected and most teams project him as a RT because he struggled at times in college.  Peat might mature into a starting LT and there are plenty of teams that would use him at that position immediately but he would be best served being eased into it.  He has the prototypical build for an elite LT but Peat has some growing to do and teams can see that.

4. TJ Clemmings   Sr.   Pittsburgh   OT

Even though Clemmings is a fifth year senior out of Pitt he is still a very raw project because he spent most of his college career on the defensive line only moving to the offensive side two years ago.  Teams see a player with a good build, solid athleticism and an aggressive demeanor and they think he can be an elite tackle.  Clemmings doesn’t have the usual length of a LT so he is still best projected at RT and yes he could also move inside to guard.  He has high upside given his limited time at the position but it is hard to rank him above guys that have less of a learning curve.

5. Ereck Flowers   Jr.   Miami   OT

Flowers is one of the more intriguing OT prospects in this draft because he is still a young guy that needs to be molded by a good offensive line coach.  Miami hasn’t been a great team for a few years now but they still put out plenty of NFL talent and Flowers has a lot of raw ability.  He could be a day one starter for someone or he could be like Taylor Lewan last year and go to a team that doesn’t need him right away but he eventually earns a starting nod.  He’s a good athlete that can handle the LT position but he could also be a very good RT early on.

6. AJ Cann   Sr.   South Carolina   OG

The OT position is the big money position and it is the one that gets the most attention but teams are learning that a strong interior line is extremely valuable and AJ Cann is the top pure guard in this draft and he’s well worth a high pick.  It’s fairly rare to see a pure guard go in the first round but it is becoming more commonplace and Cann could be the exception this year.  At 6’3 311 lbs. he has the right combination of size, strength and mobility to be top guard in the NFL.

7. Cameron Erving   Sr.   Florida St.   C

After playing so well a season ago for the National Champion Seminoles and blocking for Heisman winner Jameis Winston Erving was on his way to a spot atop the OT rankings but it never happened.  He started the year playing less than stellar football at LT and teams started to doubt his ability.  Then a funny thing happened, the Seminoles had some injury issues on their line and Erving moved inside to center.  This is not a typical transition to say the least but Erving excelled at his new spot and stabilized the Florida St. line.  With only a half of a season at center Erving became the top prospect at the position and at 6’5 308 lbs. he brings unusually good size to the position.  He may sneak into the end of the first round as there are a few teams (Detroit, Baltimore and Indianapolis) that might be looking for an upgrade on the interior of their offensive line if other position needs are unable to be filled.

8. Ty Sambrailo   Sr.   Colorado St.   OT

Sambrailo has a lot of experience and it has come all over the line at Colorado St. over the past four years and he could project to any position on the line except center.  The problem is that he will be making a major step up in competition as he didn’t regularly face elite speed rushers while playing for the Rams.  I do like his size at 6’6 308 lbs. and he has good feet but he needs some strength to hold up against NFL defenses.

9. Cedric Ogbuehi   Sr.   Texas A&M   OT

Ogbuehi went into this season as the odds on favorite to be the top OT in this draft but he season did not go to plan.  He was hoping to follow in the footsteps of the two previous LTs for the Aggies Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews who went #3 and #6 overall in the two previous drafts.  Ogbuehi move to LT from RT as they both had but during the season his play was not up to par and he was moved back to RT for a time.  He has steadily fallen down the draft board as others have moved ahead of him.  He is still a solid prospect and he is a starting RT in the NFL for sure but his ceiling doesn’t look as high right now.  He needs to impress at the combine and in workouts to stop his fall and get some good momentum.  He isn’t in the class of Joeckel or Matthews right now but he can still help a team out and someone will likely get a nice prospect in the second or third round.

10. Laken Tomlinson   Sr.   Duke   OG

Yep a draft with a Duke prospect and it’s not the NBA.  Tomlinson didn’t have as dominating of a season as many thought he might but he was still good.  He is the second pure guard after AJ Cann and he should go in the second round or early third and he will start immediately.  At 6’3 323 lbs. he’s bigger and more powerful than Cann but he doesn’t have quite the mobility.  He’s experienced and he won’t have a problem adjusting to the NFL.

11. Daryl Williams   Sr.   Oklahoma   OT

At 6’5 334 lbs. Williams is a fully developed power RT and he can step in immediately.  Williams may never be a Pro Bowl level player but he’s a long term starter and he will not disappoint.

12. Tre Jackson   Sr.   Florida St.   OG

Jackson is a beast at 6’4 323 lbs. and he’s been starting on the Seminoles line for a while.  He wasn’t as dominate as expected as Florida St.’s entire line struggled early in the year but Jackson is a guy that is going to get drafted in the third or maybe the fourth round and start for his team for the next decade.  He’s a mauler with an attitude and teams love that in their guards.

2015 Draft Defensive Tackle Rankings

Defensive tackles come in two sizes big and bigger.  The big ones play defensive tackle and the bigger ones play nose tackle.  Okay that’s an oversimplification but it’s true.  There are quite a few top prospects at the position this year and guys that can step in right away and make a difference.  It isn’t as deep as the edge pass rusher position but there could be some good quality in round 2.

1. Leonard Williams   Sr.   USC

There is about a 99% chance that the #1 pick in the draft is going to be a QB whether it’s Winston or Mariota.  If any player can knock those two off the top spot it is Williams.  He is the best prospect in the draft and he’s earned that title.  Williams will fit in any scheme and at multiple positions due to his skillset.  At 6’5 300 lbs. he is a very powerful force inside or setting the edge on the outside.  He plays with great leverage and while his initial step isn’t always quick off the line he makes up for that by packing a punch.  Williams is an immovable force with true brute strength that makes him impossible to block one-on-one.  He isn’t a great pass rusher generally but on twists and stunts he can make plays.

2. Danny Shelton   Sr.   Washington   NT

Shelton was seen as a pretty good prospect after the season and then he went to the Senior Bowl and absolutely blew up.  He is a perfect nose tackle prospect at 6’2 343 lbs. and he can be dominating from that position.  It is hard to find a true NT and teams that need one will be falling all over themselves to grab Shelton.  Unlike a lot of NTs Shelton can actually get to the QB with a number of different moves but he won’t make a living doing that.

3. Malcolm Brown   Sr.   Texas

Brown is a playmaker at DT and he would excel in any 4-3 defense but he also has versatility.  At 6’4 320 lbs. he has the size to line up at NT but he also possesses the athletic ability to play the five-technique.  He would be best suited at DT but every team is going to take a close look.  Brown has great feet and is probably the best pass rusher from the inside position because of his balance and athleticism.  Needs to use his hands better to disengage blockers but that’s a coachable skill.

4. Eddie Goldman   Sr.   Florida St.   NT

Goldman isn’t the NT prospect that Shelton is but he is strictly a NT prospect and that’s the problem.  He anchors very well at the point of attack and he has violent hands which makes him difficult to handle in close quarters.  He doesn’t have the skillset of a pass rusher which limits which teams will look at him but he’s a very good NT prospect and those guys don’t grow on trees.

5. Carl Davis   Sr.   Iowa

At 6’4 320 lbs. Davis is a large man with great power especially in his lower body and when he anchors down he’s impossible to move.  He shows a number of good pass rushing moves but rarely finishes off the pass rush which is why his sack numbers were low.  Davis is disruptive and he can plan next to anyone on the interior and play off of them.  He fits best in a 4-3 defense but he could be a five-technique in the right circumstance.

6. Jordan Phillips   Redshirt Soph.   Oklahoma   NT

Phillips is a mountain of a man at 6’6 334 lbs. and his potential is outrageous.  Unfortunately at this point it is all potential as he really hasn’t had consistent production.  He was only a redshirt sophomore so he doesn’t have the experience of the older players but he has some issues.  Phillips is a NT type of player due to his sheer size but his height could be a detriment because he plays high and loses leverage.  Someone is going to draft him quite high simply because you can’t teach a guy to be that big but you can teach him better technique and better leverage.

7. Michael Bennett   Sr.   Ohio St.

Bennett is the smallest of the top DT prospects at 6’2 and just 288 lbs. but he is technically proficient and uses his balance, agility and athleticism to make up for his lack of size.  Not the strongest player at the point of attack but he knows how to slip blocks and disrupt an offense.  Bennett plays well for his size inside and he can move outside too giving him some versatility in a 4-3 scheme.  He doesn’t wow you with his skills but he always seems to be around the ball making plays.

8. Xavier Cooper   Jr.   Washington St.

Cooper is a big guy that could line up inside at DT or as a 3-4 end and use his skills well from either spot.  He’s well-built and very thick with good power and good movement skills.  He’s not a great tackler even though he sheds blocks fairly well.  He still needs some coaching to reach his potential.

9. Gabe Wright   Sr.   Auburn

Wright is built to be an interior defensive lineman but he’s actually a better pass rusher than he is a run stuffer and that is why he’s lower in the rankings.  Teams draft defensive tackles to stuff up the middle first and rush the passer second.  Wright has his place as a passing down DT but he has a lot of work to do to be an every down type of player.

10. Ellis McCarthy   Jr.   UCLA   NT

McCarthy may not be in everyone’s top 10 DT rankings but he possess such raw potential I think he’s better than a lot of guys.  He’s huge at 6’4 330 lbs. and he has a prototypical NT build but he wasn’t strictly a NT at UCLA.  The Bruins play multiple fronts and McCarthy can play different ways.  He isn’t a pass rusher but he is the definition of an anchor at the point of attack.  Love his potential and he’s only true downside is that he has struggled in the past with his weight, if he keeps that under control he will be very good.

 

 

 

Running Back and Wide Receiver are both deep positions in this draft while Tight End is extremely shallow.

2015 NFL Draft Running Back Rankings

The NFL has seen a devaluing of the RB position over the past several years and nowhere is that more prevalent than in the NFL draft.  No RB has gone in the first round of the past two drafts and the last time it did happen was in 2012 when three RBs made it.  Those three don’t really inspire confidence that RB should return to top of the draft board.  Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and David Wilson went #3, #31 and #32 overall in the 2012 draft and haven’t exactly been lighting up the league.  Wilson’s career is already over due to an injury, Richardson’s career is on life support as he has failed for two teams and while Martin had one stellar year he hasn’t really done much else.  A few numbers to ponder when considering drafting a RB in the first round; 13 players rushed for more than 1000 yards during the 2014 regular season only one was drafted in the first round (Marshawn Lynch), there were just as many 6^th round picks (Alfred Morris) 7^th round picks (Justin Forsett) and undrafted players (Arian Foster); of those 13 players that rushed for over 100 yards 5 were second round picks (Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill and Matt Forte); out of the top 20 rushers in the league only 3 were first round picks (Lynch, Mark Ingram and Jonathan Stewart); the league’s leading rusher was Dallas’ DeMarco Murray (3^rd round pick) but he was lucky enough to run behind 3 1^st round pick offensive linemen (there may be a correlation there).  After making my point very clear that taking a RB in the first round is not necessary I’m almost certain the Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon is a lock for the 1^st round of the 2015 NFL draft.  In addition this year’s class may just restock a third of the NFL teams with starting caliber RBs.  The class is as deep and talented as it has been in years.

1. Melvin Gordon   Jr.   Wisconsin

Wisconsin has a history of great college running backs unfortunately that history doesn’t seem to include great NFL success.  Recent Badger tailbacks include; James White, Montee Ball, John Clay, PJ Hill, Brian Calhoun and the most celebrated Badger back of them all Ron Dayne.  Dayne’s career was pretty nondescript and while White and Ball are just getting started they don’t look like they will start the world on fire.  It seems like I’m making a case against Gordon but actually I think he breaks all those molds.  He’s worth a 1^st round pick (and every mock draft from now until April is going to have him going to the Colts) and he is a better prospect than all those former Badgers.  Gordon is big enough to carry the load in the backfield but he has elite speed that means every time he touches the ball he could end up in the end zone.  Using him in a variety of ways means creating mismatches all over the field and he will be an incredible weapon.  If the Colts don’t sign a free agent RB before the draft and Gordon falls to their spot at #29 (that’s a big if) they would be crazy to pass on him.  An offense built around Andrew Luck, TY Hilton and Melvin Gordon could do real damage.

2. Todd Gurley   Jr.   Georgia

Gurley was headed to the top RB spot in the 2015 draft until he was suspended from Georgia for improper benefits then when he returned from that suspension he torn his ACL in his first game back… oh and then Melvin Gordon ran for about 5,000 yards and took the top spot.  Despite all of this, especially the ACL tear, Gurley could still go in the first round and no one would really question it.  He’s a favorite in mock drafts to be scooped up by one of the two Super Bowl teams either the Seahawks or Patriots and given those two teams employ big power backs Marshawn Lynch and LaGarrett Blount it’s easy to see why.  Gurley is listed at 6’1 226 lbs. and he’s all power and he is most often compared to Marshawn Lynch because of his propensity to go into his own “Beast Mode” ala Lynch.  Gurley’s durability is a bit of a question as is how long his career can last given his power running style but given the trend at RB in the NFL teams won’t hesitate to draft him.  If you look over that list of rushing leaders I referenced earlier there is another trend that becomes evident besides the rounds they were drafted in, of the 13 1,000 yard rushers this last season only 3 of them weighed less than 215 lbs. (LeSean McCoy, Justin Forsett and Jamaal Charles).  The power running game has become the complement to the spread passing attack because teams try to match up with the passing game using smaller, quicker defenders and big backs can take advantage.

3. Tevin Coleman   Jr.   Indiana

I may have Coleman higher on my list than a lot of others but I promise it’s not just because he ran all over the Iowa Hawkeyes to the tune of 219 yards.  At around 6’0 210 lbs. Coleman fits perfectly in the mold of an NFL back and he has good power and excellent speed.  He hits the hole quickly and efficiently and if he had played on a better college team his numbers would have been incredible.  Coleman is undervalued and someone is going to end up with and exceptional back.

4. Ameer Abdullah   Sr.   Nebraska

As you can see the Big Ten was stacked with great running backs and I’m not even done yet.  Abdullah is smaller in stature than most of the top backs coming in at about 5’8 and just under 200 lbs. but he doesn’t play like it.  He isn’t the biggest back but he is low to the ground so he has no problem delivering a hit at the end of the run and he generates power from his impressive speed.  After carrying the ball over 750 times over the past three years his durability is obvious but where Abdullah lacks is in the pass game.  Given Nebraska’s offense during Abdullah’s career it isn’t unusual that he never caught more than 26 passes in a season but he isn’t a natural pass catcher either.  He lacks bulk along with experience which makes him less than ideal in blitz pickup situations.

5. Jay Ajayi   Jr.   Boise St.

I haven’t seen a lot of this guy but what I have seen I like a lot.  Good size and great instincts along with really good hands catching the ball.  He had some character issues early in his career at Boise St. but he didn’t run and hide (aka transfer) he stuck it out, got back into good standing with his coaches and proved to be an asset.  Teams will do deep background on him but it seems like just stupid immature stuff he may have outgrown.  His pass blocking isn’t great but he’s such a threat in the passing game he will stay on the field as an outlet receiver.  He runs better to the outside than he does between the tackles so he may not be much of a short yardage back and may have to share time with a big back.

6. Duke Johnson   Jr.   Miami

There is a long line of backs out of Miami in the last 15 years or so and Johnson is good but I’m not sure he ever lives up to the likes of Edgerrin James, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis or Willis McGahee.  Johnson is more quick than fast although he does have good speed.  He has great cutting ability and his acceleration out of those cuts is second to none.  In the right system he is a dynamic weapon but he too should be paired with a big back that can take the pounding between the tackles and let Johnson work in space.

7. TJ Yeldon   Jr.   Alabama

Yeldon had some injuries issues at Alabama and one of the reasons he came out early is because he wasn’t guaranteed to get his job back for the Crimson Tide.  So is the life of an Alabama player, if you get hurt there is likely someone just as talented if not more so ready to take your job.  Yeldon is a unique back because at 6’2 220 lbs. he is tall and lean looking but he packs some deceptive power.  He runs to upright and that leads to his injury issues but he’s so good when healthy that he is worth the risk.  Everything about Yeldon’s style is deceptive; his power, his burst and acceleration that will leave you tackling air and his breakaway speed.  If he gets in the open field you’ll only see the back of his jersey.  Yeldon could fall to the fourth, fifth or sixth round but depending on which team gets him he could be a major contributor next season.

8. David Cobb   Sr.   Minnesota

Cobb is not flashy but he is effective.  This too is not a ranking based on his complete domination of the Iowa Hawkeyes but I guarantee he sent that game tape out to every scout in the country.  He is a grinder, he isn’t the guy ripping off long run after long run (unless he’s playing Iowa) but he will just keep coming at you until he breaks your will.  He doesn’t run with anger like Marshawn Lynch and he sometimes goes down too easily running inside but he’ll get up and come right back at you the next play.  Cobb reminds me a little of Frank Gore and my guess is he’ll have a career that lasts that long.

9. Jeremy Langford   Sr.   Michigan St.

Another Big Ten back (yep the conference was stacked this last year) and another one that isn’t flashy.  Langford doesn’t stand out as overly fast or really powerful on tape he’s just a solid RB that gets the job done.  Langford is good between the tackles but not great and he can bounce a play outside but he isn’t going to outrun everyone on the defense.  Where Langford separates himself is all the other facets of the game.  The Spartans were a fantastic screen team because Langford was exceptional at that particular skill, he also excels at pass protection.  He needs to work on waiting for his blocks but he will stick on a roster because he does all the things coaches worry about having a rookie do during the course of a game.

10. David Johnson   Sr.   Northern Iowa

I really wasn’t going to put Johnson in my top 10 because I thought it would look like I was just ranking guys that killed Iowa this season and then Johnson went down to the Senior Bowl and showed everyone why he killed Iowa.  His 210 receiving yards against Iowa were no fluke and teams are actually looking at Johnson as an H-back type of player.  He has great versatility as he could line up at RB, FB, H-back, TE or in the slot.  He’s a little short to be a traditional TE but given teams propensities for using the “move TE” position his skillset fits.  Johnson is a little stiff in the hips and he isn’t very elusive as a RB but he has great hands and a fantastic feel for the passing game.  He doesn’t have elite speed but he is extremely tough to tackle given his stout build.  Johnson might get drafted before anyone expected him to and he’ll make a team because of his versatility and his willingness to play anywhere and do anything his coaches ask of him.

The rest of the class: 

I said this class was deep and talented and here are some more names to remember during the next few months as any of these guys could rocket up the draft board with a great workout; Mike Davis (Jr) South Carolina, Javorius “Buck” Allen (Jr) USC, Cameron Artis-Payne (Jr) Auburn, Matt Jones (Jr) Florida and Karlos Williams (Sr) Florida St.  If I were to bet on any of these guys rising up the board I would put my money on Artis-Payne or Allen.

 

2015 Draft WR Prospect Rankings

The 2015 draft is pretty deep at WR but it doesn’t quite compare to the 2014 draft.  The 2014 draft is going to go down as the deepest WR draft in history and it goes far beyond the five guys that went in the first round.  Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin have a legitimate chance to go down as the best group of 1^st round WRs ever but the rest of the list makes the rookie class incredible.  Jordan Matthews, Devante Adams, Donte Moncrief, Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, Jarvis Landry, John Brown and Martavius Bryant were all draft picks that contributed heavily for their teams and Allen Hurns and Philly Brown were undrafted free agents that contributed too.  The 2015 class has three elite prospects (Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker and Kevin White) and four more guys that could easily go in the first round of the draft (Devin Funchess, Jaelen Strong, Sammie Coates and Dorial Green-Beckham).  There is plenty of depth too but it might not be quite like last year.  The middle of the first round has a number of teams that could be looking at WR (#15 San Francisco, #18 Kansas City, #19 Cleveland if they pass at #12, #25 Carolina and #26 Baltimore) and that’s lines up with Strong’s value.  There are teams at the end of the first round with major free agent WR issues (Dallas-Dez Bryant, Denver-Demaryius Thomas, Green Bay-Randall Cobb) or just a major need at WR (Seattle) meaning as many as six or seven WRs could go in the first round or teams may hold off because of the depth at the position and address other needs first.

1. Amari Cooper   Jr.   Alabama

The NFL has seen the WR position grow, literally.  Players like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas have revolutionized the position by being big and fast instead of just one or the other.  While there are prospects that fit the mold this year Cooper isn’t one of them but he is the best WR prospect in the draft regardless.  At 6’1 210 lbs. Cooper isn’t a physically imposing WR and there is little chance he’s going to blaze a sub 4.4 40 yard dash at any point so his speed isn’t going to kill you.  What Cooper brings is great balance, acceleration and an innate ability to beat coverage.  He may not compare to Johnson or Jones but he reminds me of Torry Holt and that’s a pretty good WR to be compared to.  Just about every mock draft at the moment has him going to the Oakland Raiders at #4 and it will probably stay that way until Parker or White light up the combine and then everyone will jump on their bandwagon.  I will not be one of those people because I’ve watched Cooper play.  If the Raiders want to accelerate Derek Carr’s progress as their franchise QB Cooper is the guy they should draft.  Parker and White are great WR prospects but Cooper makes Carr’s life easier on day one.

2. DeVante Parker   Sr.   Louisville

Just because I think Cooper is the top WR in the draft doesn’t mean I don’t like Parker or White.  At 6’3 210 lbs. Parker is a dynamic playmaker that is going to make some team extremely happy and the Cleveland Browns should do whatever they have to in order to grab him in the first round.  Parker had a bit of an injury plagued year and without Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him his numbers were down but he is the type of WR teams love.  He’s big, fast and physical and he makes QBs look good.  Teddy Bridgewater’s new NFL team the Vikings should take a serious look at adding Parker at the #11 pick before the Browns can grab him 12^th.

3. Kevin White   Sr.   West Virginia

White comes in at 6’3 210 lbs. also and he’s very similar to Parker in many ways.  White is big, fast and physical too and while Parker has better deep speed White has a quickness that helps him get free off the line and an initial burst Parker doesn’t have.  It’s a coin flip as to who is better and teams will have to decide which one they like more.  All three of the top WR should go in the top 12 of the draft not just because they rank that high but also because at least 6 of the teams in the top 12 need WR; Titans, Raiders, Jets, Rams, Vikings and Browns.

4. Jaelen Strong   Jr.   Arizona St.

As there is some debate about the order of the top 3 WRs in this class the will be some debate about who is #4.  Strong, Devin Funchess from Michigan and the wildcard Dorial Green-Beckham are the next group and they all have their positives and negatives.  I like Strong because while his ceiling may not be as high as Green-Beckham his floor isn’t as low and while he isn’t as big as Funchess he is a more natural receiver.  At 6’3 215 lbs. Strong has a similar size to Parker and White but he isn’t quite as fast, however, he is a more physical receiver than either of them.  He isn’t as polished as those two either but he is still a player that could contribute early because of his natural ability.

5. Dorial Green-Beckham   Jr.   Oklahoma (kind of) formerly Missouri

When you are 6’5 225 lbs. and run like a gazelle teams will forgive a lot of issues.  Green-Beckham is the most physically gifted WR in this draft and if he didn’t have bright red flashing flags all over him he would be a top 10 pick without a doubt.  Here are the red flags we know about; he was twice arrested for marijuana possession while at Missouri although charges were dropped, dismissed or lessened in some way and there was an alleged incident of Green-Beckham forcing his way into an apartment of a woman and pushing her down some stairs.  No charges filed there either but eventually he was dismissed from Missouri and transferred to Oklahoma.  A petition to the NCAA to allow him to play immediately was denied so he sat out this last season and declared for the draft.  Being a WR with marijuana issues leads me to believe the Cleveland Browns have almost certainly removed him from their draft board (they can’t possibly be that stupid) and the drug issues coupled with the possible domestic violence incident is going to make Green-Beckham a tough sell (he’s a walking suspension waiting to happen).  Purely from a football standpoint he could be the next Calvin Johnson but the odds are on him being the next Josh Gordon.  I’m ranking him fifth as a player but if I were a GM I wouldn’t touch this headcase with a 10 foot pole.

6. Devin Funchess   Jr.   Michigan

Funchess is an interesting prospect because he really started his career at Michigan playing TE and then instead of bulking up he stayed at around 230 lbs. and played WR.  He was about the only bright spot during Brady Hoke’s final year in Ann Arbor.  At 6’5 230 lbs. Funchess is a big WR that can make plays on the outside using his size but he doesn’t bring the speed like a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones does so his game is mostly predicated on him being bigger and more physical than his opponent.  He does bring some versatility because a team could use him as their move TE and he would be a tough matchup on LB or S.  Where Funchess plays and how he’s used is going to depend completely on which team drafts him.

7. Sammie Coates   Jr.   Auburn

The borderline 1^st round prospect is Auburn junior Sammie Coates.  At 6’2 213 lbs. he’s built a lot like Dez Bryant and he has the necessary speed to beat teams deep.  He isn’t the most consistent catching the ball and he’s game needs some real refinement.  If a good WR coach gets ahold of him he could be a dynamic weapon.  Given there are around a dozen teams that could use an upgrade at WR seeing Coates make the first round would not be surprising and he could really wow some teams at the combine or at workouts and climb the board.  Coates has a lot of potential and he could be a late first round steal.

8. Rashad Greene   Sr.   Florida St.

I’m a little higher on Greene than most.  He isn’t a physically intimidating WR at 6’0 180 lbs. but he knows how to play the position.  He was a favorite target of Jameis Winston and he makes a QB’s job easier by being where he is supposed to be.  A good route runner and a guy that brings some value as a special teams return guy ranks pretty high on my board.

9. Nelson Agholor   Jr.   USC

Agholor probably would have benefited from another year catching passes from Cody Kessler at USC but he’s a good WR with the added bonus of being a good punt returner.  Agholor tracks and catches the deep ball very well and while he isn’t big at 6’1 190 lbs. he wins more jump balls than you would expect.  He’s a long-strider that needs a little space to get up to his top speed but he seems to do well catching balls even with close coverage.

10. Josh Harper   Sr.   Fresno St.

A player that was better as a junior than as a senior because of the drop-off at QB for his college team.  Harper teamed with Devante Adams his junior year to make a nice set of WRs for QB Derek Carr.  Harper is a good athlete that is more quick than fast.  He doesn’t have elite deep speed and he dances a little too much trying to gain yardage because he lacks physicality to get tough yards.  His quick burst off the line makes him a difficult cover and he has really good hands even in traffic.  Harper is going to make some team a very good third WR right away and he could become a very solid starter in the future.

The best of the rest: 

Devin Smith (Ohio St.) – Not sure if he ever ran anything other than a go route but he has great deep speed.  He averaged 27.2 yards per catch last season.  If you want a deep threat he’s your man.

Phillip Dorsett (Miami) – The only guy to average more yards per catch than Devin Smith was Dorsett but he’s a lot smaller WR at 5’10 (that’s generous) 183 lbs.  He is the definition of elite speed but his hands are inconsistent and being undersized hurts his stock.

Tyler Lockett (Kansas St.) – Another undersized player but he is one of the best return men in the game and he comes by it naturally.

Ty Montgomery (Stanford) – He had a bad week at the Senior Bowl and it hurt him but he can play and someone will grab him in the later rounds.

Justin Hardy (East Carolina) – His numbers were inflated because ECU schemed to get him the ball a lot but what does it say about a kid when the entire defense knows where the ball is going and they still can’t stop you.  Hardy is a player.

Stefon Diggs (Maryland) – Diggs just makes plays.  He isn’t big or physical but he has good speed and he knows how to use it.  He needs work on his route running and he can’t block at all but he could help a team in need of some WR depth.

I could go on but I won’t so apologies to Jamison Crowder (Duke), Tony Lippett (Michigan St.) and Breshad Perriman (UCF).

2015 Draft TE Prospect Ranking

I though the QB draft class was thin until I took a look at the TE draft class.  With most teams seeing Devin Funchess as a WR prospect and not a TE prospect this class is skinnier than a runway model.

1. Maxx Williams   Redshirt Soph.   Minnesota

The redshirt sophomore left Minnesota early and he is far and away the best TE prospect in the draft.  He wasn’t exactly filling up the stat sheet at Minnesota because their offense is pretty run based but you can see enough on film to really like his skillset.  He catches the ball naturally with his hands, he has good speed and athleticism and he’s a solid inline blocker after his time in the Golden Gophers offense.  Williams isn’t in the mold of the new NFL TE like Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham because he isn’t that type of athlete and he is 6’4 not 6’7.  The guy he reminds me of is Cowboys TE Jason Witten and considering Witten is a likely future Hall of Famer that’s not a bad guy to pattern your game after.

2. Clive Walford   Sr.   Miami

Miami has produced some excellent TEs in recent history and while Walford has great athleticism and loads of potential he’s not quite up to guys like Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen.  However, those three played on far better Miami teams so perhaps Walford just needs better talent around him.  He doesn’t have the size to be much of a blocker but in today’s NFL he can be a matchup problem and that makes him a very nice prospect.  He is also helped by the fact that he and Williams have really separated themselves from the pack at TE.  Walford had an excellent week at the Senior Bowl and he proved to everyone that he’s ready to contribute to an NFL team quickly.

That’s it folks, that’s the entirety of my rankings at TE.  Devin Funchess is considered a WR for these purposes and guys like Nick O’Leary from Florida St. and Ben Koyack from Notre Dame just don’t move the needle for me.  Penn St. junior Jesse James looks the part but I’m not convinced by his on the field production.