The not quite contenders 

11. Kansas City Chiefs (2013 Record 11-5)

Oh what a difference a competent QB and a good head coach can have on a team.  Andy Reid brought in Alex Smith and Kansas City went from being the worst team in the league to making the playoffs.  Now we will see if Reid can keep this team in the playoffs with a reshuffled offensive line and not a lot of help offensively for RB Jamaal Charles.  The Chiefs lost 3 starting offensive linemen and now they are counting on second year man Eric Fisher to play LT.  He wasn’t overwhelming at RT last year but he may actually be more comfortable on the left side.  QB Alex Smith just got a new contract extension (the Chiefs overpaid) but he is hardly a star and this offense will still rely heavily on the legs of Jamaal Charles.  Dwayne Bowe is still the only real threat at WR and he wasn’t great last year either.  The Chiefs love the potential of TE Travis Kelce who missed last season with an injury.

The Chiefs defense is built around the pass rushing prowess of OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and the Chiefs decided to add to that group with first round pick Dee Ford.  They did suffer some defections in free agency and they cut starting CB Brandon Flowers late in the summer because he didn’t fit their scheme but the defense should be solid.  NT Dontari Poe was fantastic last season and set the tone up front while CB Sean Smith and S Eric Berry played well in the secondary.

The Chiefs aren’t as good as the Broncos in the AFC West but they are one of the better teams in the AFC so they should make the playoffs.  Andy Reid knows what he’s doing and if the pieced together offensive line can hold up the Chiefs should be fine.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (2013 Record 10-6)

First year head coach Chip Kelly took a 4-12 last place Eagles team to a 10-6 record and a division title, he turned Nick Foles into a franchise QB and then he invented sliced bread…um…that last part might not be true.  Still Kelly took the league by storm and proved his innovative offensive mind could translate to the NFL, imagine what he could do if the Eagles could play defense.  Kelly decided to add a level of difficulty to his second year and he jettisoned WR DeSean Jackson because all he did was have a career year.  The Eagles get WR Jeremy Maclin back from injury and they drafted Jordan Matthews who has looked very good in the preseason so the offense again won’t be a problem.  QB Nick Foles should be even more comfortable in Kelly’s offense in his second year and when in doubt he has one of the best running backs in football LeSean McCoy to hand off to.  TEs Zach Ertz and Brent Celek, WR Riley Cooper and new addition RB Darren Sproles give Foles plenty of other weapons also.

The Eagles defense has to thank the offense for winning so many games in spite of them.  The transition to a 3-4 defense is not going smoothly and many players are playing out of place.  OLB Trent Cole doesn’t look comfortable after moving back from DE and at 31 years old he probably isn’t going to get comfortable.  The Eagles reached in the first round of the draft to grab Louisville pass rusher Marcus Smith because he is comfortable playing in space and has natural athleticism for the job.  There are talented players on defense but Cole isn’t the only one playing an unnatural position.  NT Bennie Logan and DE Fletcher Cox would be better off in a 4-3 alignment playing next to each other in the middle.  CBs Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams never really found their groove last year so both of them should improve this season but Nolan Carroll was brought in to push them.  FS Malcolm Jenkins came over from New Orleans and he should be a nice upgrade.

A marginal improvement on defense would go a long way towards helping this team repeat as division champions but it may not even be needed.  The Eagles offense should easily outpace Washington, New York and Dallas in the NFC East.  One piece of advice if you’re a gambler, Eagles vs. Cowboys games I don’t care what the over/under is bet the over (my advice is given simply for comedic purposes and I will not be held responsible if you lose money because you are dumb enough to bet on sports).

9. Arizona Cardinals (2013 Record 10-6)

The combo of head coach Bruce Arians and QB Carson Palmer was as effective as I thought it would be.  Palmer’s downfield throwing was exactly what Arians offense needed and WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd give Palmer a nice set of guys on the outside.  They lost slot receiver Andre Roberts to free agency but rookie John Brown has been good in camp and should do well for them.  It wasn’t rookie Stepfan Taylor that stepped in for Rashard Mendenhall last year it was then rookie Andre Ellington and with Mendenhall’s offseason retirement Ellington will get the call this year.  He is a dynamic playmaker and he upgrades the running game.  Speaking of upgrades the Cardinals finally filled the gaping hole at LT in free agency with the addition of Jared Veldheer and that is the first legitimate LT the Cardinals have had in a long time.  The return of last year’s first round pick Jonathan Cooper to LG is another huge upgrade and the Cards may actually field a competent offensive line.

Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles did a fantastic job with this unit last year even though they were overlooked a bit because they play in the same division with Seattle and San Francisco.  His job got a lot tougher this offseason when he lost ILB Karlos Dansby to free agency, ILB Daryl Washington to a suspension and just recently lost DE Darnell Dockett to an injury.  There is still talent here especially in the secondary with CBs Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie flanking rookie Deone Buchanan and a healthy Tyrann Mathieu.  The Cardinals are hoping to squeeze one more year out of John Abraham at OLB because he provides the best pass rush on the team.

The Cardinals are a good football team that plays in the toughest division in football and also plays in the tougher conference when it comes to wild card spots in the playoffs.  They went 10-6 last year and missed the playoffs because of the strength of the conference.  Seattle and San Francisco haven’t gotten worse so the Cards have to beat up St. Louis and do some damage outside their division.

8. New Orleans Saints (2013 Record 11-5)

The Saints offense starts with Drew Brees and anytime you have a QB that has thrown for over 5000 yards three years in a row you’re off to a pretty solid start.  TE Jimmy Graham is one of the best playmakers in football and is a touchdown machine.  WR Marques Colston is Brees’ most trusted target and young WR Kenny Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks are budding playmakers.  The offensive line is pretty non-descript but Brees’ quick release has always made his line look better than they are.  The real question mark is at RB where Pierre Thomas is versatile but aging, Mark Ingram is maddeningly inconsistent and Darren Sproles was jettisoned in the offseason.  Cooks is expected to pick up some of the Sproles slack but the Saints really need Ingram to live up to his first round billing.

Rob Ryan proved last year that Rex isn’t the only Ryan brother that knows defense and that the Cowboys should deeply regret letting him go.  A Saints unit that was pretty awful before he got there was pretty good with him running things.  Ryan finally got the best out of DE Cameron Jordan and made him a very good defensive lineman. He also turned Junior Galette from a nobody into a sack master.  Free agent pickup Jairus Byrd should team with Kenny Vaccaro to make an excellent safety tandem.  Ryan’s schemes make the defense go and he’ll keep it up this year with a few new faces around.

The Saints finished just a game back of Carolina in the division last year and made the playoffs as a wild card team.  The Panthers look like they should take a step back and I think New Orleans will have to hold off the Bucs for the division this year.

7. Indianapolis Colts (2013 Record 11-5)

If you pay close attention to my Top 10 you will notice there is a theme and that theme is good teams have good QBs and Colts are no exception.  Andrew Luck willed this team to 11 wins last year with virtually no running game and two of his top targets out with injury (Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen).  The offensive line isn’t great by any means and yet Luck somehow threw for a ton of yards and has won 11 games in each of his first two years.  The Colts are hoping beyond hope that Trent Richardson will somehow live up to his lofty draft position especially after losing Vick Ballard to another season ending injury but I wouldn’t hold my breath.  Reggie Wayne is back but he’s 35 and coming off a knee injury. TY Hilton stepped up big after Wayne went out and the Colts are hoping to resurrect the career of Hakeem Nicks.  TE Coby Fleener played well after Allen went down and now with Allen back the Colts are hoping to use some two TE sets.

Robert Mathis was amazing after his transition from DE to OLB in the Colts new defense and he was right in the thick of the Defensive Player of the Year voting.  Unfortunately he’s going to miss the first 4 games of the year due to suspension so they will have to figure out how to get along without him.  The defense wasn’t very good overall and so they made a few key moves to try to better themselves.  ILB D’Qwell Jackson was signed from the Browns and DE Arthur Jones came over from Baltimore.  They held onto free agent CB Vontae Davis and he and Greg Toler make a solid duo.  They need this unit to be better but Luck makes it so they don’t have to be great to win games.

The Colts should again walk away with their division if only because they are the only team with a surefire solution at QB.   Tennessee is still trying to figure out if Jake Locker is the answer, the Jaguars don’t plan on finding out if Blake Bortles is the answer until next year and everyone except the Texans coaching staff knows that Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the answer in Houston.

The we are almost there pair.

6. Green Bay Packers (2013 Record 8-7-1)

The Packers didn’t make any major moves on offense in the offseason as they are just hoping for a healthy return of…well lots of people.  No one was hit harder by injury all over their roster like the Packers but it did give them a chance to find out that some new people can step in.  The loss of OT Bryan Bulaga along with some other OT injuries led to the Pack finding out that David Bakhtiari could actually handle LT which mean a healthy Bulaga can play the right side.  An injury to Aaron Rodgers is never a good thing but they found out that they can count on Eddie Lacy and he can carry the offense if needed.  Injuries all over the WR position led to them finding out the Jarrett Boykin might actually be able to hold his own which meant they let James Jones leave in free agency.  An offense run by a healthy Rodgers with Eddie Lacy and WRs like Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson is in good hand and is definitely better than eight wins.

They made one big name move on defense and that was the signing of DE Julius Peppers from the Bears.  Peppers is not the same guy he was in his prime and he won’t be playing the same type of position he did back then but Peppers brings legitimate pass rushing skills.  Just having to account for a guy like Peppers is more help than OLB Clay Matthews has had in the past few years.  The Packers still have hope that OLB Nick Perry can generate some heat off the edge but no one is holding their breath on that one.  Injury already struck this defense when NT BJ Raji went down with an arm injury for the year but otherwise this defense is pretty well intact.  They drafted S Haha Clinton-Dix to be the new free safety but they also converted CB Micah Hyde to the position and so far he is holding Clinton-Dix off in camp.  SS Morgan Burnett has been dinged up so Hyde and Clinton-Dix have been playing together and that’s the good news because that means when Burnett is healthy the Packers should have 3 legitimate safeties.

The Packers have the best combination of talent and coaching within their division and if they can stay healthy they shouldn’t have a problem repeating as division champs.  They will need some people to step up big though if they want to compete with Seattle and San Francisco as the class of the conference.  They do have one thing those two don’t have, Aaron Rodgers.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (2013 Record 11-5)

The Bengals have actually been good for the last several years and they have been that way because they have been steady and consistent with their player development and their coaching staff…ten years ago no one would have ever written that about this franchise.  They have been so good that they just lost both of their coordinators, not because they were fired but because they both got head coaching jobs.  QB Andy Dalton has been much maligned by fans and the media but the Bengals believe in him and they just signed him to a huge contract extension to prove it.  He’s been excellent in the regular season it has been his playoff performances that haven’t been great.  Elevating RB Giovani Bernard to starter over BenJarvus Green-Ellis should pay dividends because Bernard is a playmaker.  Rookie Jeremy Hill has replaced Green-Ellis as the short yardage back and Green-Ellis has been cut.  AJ Green is one of the best WRs in the league and he likes playing with Dalton.  Marvin Jones finally stepped up opposite Green to give Dalton another legitimate target.  TEs Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert make a nice combo and it’s up to new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to use them more effectively.  The Bengals have one of the best offensive lines in football and the way you can tell is that no one ever talks about them.

The Bengals defense has been very good for a while and when Marvin Lewis is your head coach and Mike Zimmer is your coordinator that isn’t surprising.  Zimmer finally got his shot at being a head coach in Minnesota and Paul Guenther steps in as his replacement.  The team shouldn’t miss a beat especially with the return of DT Geno Atkins from his injury.  Atkins is a dominant playmaker in the middle of the line and he sets up everything they do.  They lost DE Michael Johnson in free agency but his production was down last year so his shoes don’t look as big to fill.  LB Vontaze Burfict has proven all the doubters (and I was certainly one of them) wrong by being one of the best LBs in the league after not getting drafted a couple of years ago due to character concerns.  It’s nice to see someone not live down to the expectations of others and Burfict has put in the work and he’s a fantastic LB.  A training camp injury has set back rookie CB Darqueze Dennard so the Bengals will once again have to count on old man Terrence Newman and draft bust Dre Kirkpatrick opposite Leon Hall but the secondary will be fine and having Atkins up front causing havoc helps a lot.

The Bengals have the second longest tenured head coach in the league in Marvin Lewis behind only the New England Patriots Bill Belichick…I know I can’t believe that either.  Losing coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer isn’t great news but there is some hope that new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will help shake Dalton out of his poor playoff performance issues.

The Elite Division

4. New England Patriots (2013 Record 12-4)

Last season the Patriots offense was basically RB LeGarrette Blount and Tom Brady throwing it to Julian Edelman about 1000 times.  Blount left for Pittsburgh in the offseason so they are hoping for more from the rest of the skill position players.  TE Rob Gronkowski would be the first choice to be healthy and productive if Brady had a wish.  Gronkowski is a dynamic playmaker down the field and especially in the end zone and he’s a matchup nightmare.  RB Shane Vereen had a great first game last year after he replaced the fumble prone Stevan Ridley and the Patriots are hoping one of those two can be the man in the backfield.  If neither does they still have Brandon Bolden around and now they have rookie James White too.  The offensive line looks to be healthy and as long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick they will be one of the better teams in the league.

Other teams had more injuries on defense but the Patriots had some of the most important players on their defense get injured.  DTs Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly and MLB Jerod Mayo all missed significant time and that seriously weakened the team up the middle.  Wilfork and Mayo are the heart and soul of the defense and their return is huge.  The free agent signing of CB Darrelle Revis is important because of the loss of Aqib Talib and having Revis another year removed from his knee injury and with a chip on his shoulder bodes well for the Pats.  CB Brandon Browner is another significant signing but he will miss the first four games of the season due to a suspension.  DE Chandler Jones and LB Jaime Collins are young guys that stepped up big last year and they are the future building blocks of the defense.

Somehow with all the injuries on defense and the lack of playmakers on offense the Patriots still went 12-4, won their division by a landslide and made it to the AFC Championship game.  Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are the reasons and anyone that doubts those two guys does so at their peril.  As long as they are around the Patriots remain one of the elite teams in the league and are a threat no matter what.

3. San Francisco 49ers (2013 Record 12-4)

The 49ers rely heavily on the ground game and the legs of RB Frank Gore and while all evidence says that Gore shouldn’t be able to keep doing what he has done for so long he just keeps going.  The team isn’t crazy enough to think he will last forever so they wisely invested a draft pick in RB Carlos Hyde who very well could take over at a moment’s notice.  This become an even smarter move when backup Kendall Hunter was lost for the season to an injury and since Marcus Lattimore still isn’t ready to play after sitting out all of last season.  QB Colin Kaepernick needs to take the next step for this offense to make strides and this just may be the year.  WR Michael Crabtree missed most of last season but he’s back and pairing him with Anquan Boldin gives Kaepernick a nice set of WRs.  The trade for Stevie Johnson from the Bills and the drafting of Bruce Ellington also adds nice depth a position that didn’t have much.  TE Vernon Davis is the veteran presence and reliable target every QB needs and the 49ers have arguably the best offensive line in football.

The backbone of this team has been its defense and they are hoping their depth can make up for some injuries they have to overcome. Glenn Dorsey finally played well after coming over from Kansas City and settling in at nose tackle but he’s been lost for the season to an injury.  ILB Navarro Bowman was actually playing better than his more heralded teammate Patrick Willis before he tore up his knee late last year.  The 49ers are hoping young Quinton Dial can take over the NT job while rookie Chris Borland holds down the fort until Bowman is back.  OLB Aldon Smith’s season was a train wreck due to off-the-field issues and the team is hoping he can put that all behind him because they need his pass rushing skills.  SS Antoine Bethea should help out the coverage in the secondary as he teams with second year FS Eric Reid and the new starting CB tandem of Trumaine Brock and Chris Culliver.  DE Justin Smith is still the leader of the group but he isn’t getting any younger and the 49ers need some of the youngsters to step up.

The 49ers have the unenviable task of playing in the same division as the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks and that make them the best wild card team in football.  The rivalry between the two squads goes all the way up to the head coaches Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll and it’s a rivalry that drives both teams to strive for perfection.  San Francisco might be the best team in the NFC but they are going to have to take that title away from Seattle because the Seahawks aren’t just going to give it away.

2. Seattle Seahawks (2013 Record 13-3)

The NFL has become a pass happy league but the Seahawks proved that a great defense and a running game can still win championships.  RB Marshawn Lynch carries the load for the offense and QB Russell Wilson makes plays to keep things moving but the league will adjust which means the Seahawks must adjust too.  They didn’t make any major additions on offense with the exception of the return of a healthy Percy Harvin, they hope.  Harvin is a playmaker and he gives their offense a dimension it otherwise doesn’t have but he just can’t stay on the field and it’s hard to trust a guy like that.  Guys like Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are nice and they are hoping to get some playmaking out of rookies Kevin Norwood and Paul Richardson but none of them are on Harvin’s level.  The Seahawks have built a solid stable of RBs behind Lynch with Christine Michael and Robert Turbin.  They drafted Justin Britt out of Missouri and are hoping he can take over the RT job but that may prove to be a risky choice.  They signed Eric Winston as insurance but then they cut him during final cut downs, he could be an insurance policy signing after week 1 when veteran contracts are no longer guaranteed.

The Seahawks defense was on a different level last year and it would be hard to replicate that under the best circumstances and these aren’t the best circumstances.  There is plenty of talent still around like CB Richard Sherman, DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril and Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas.  The problem the Seahawks face is with the depth they lost in free agency, DEs Chris Clemons and Red Bryant left for Jacksonville, CB Brandon Browner went to New England and nickel corner Walter Thurmond headed to the Giants and those losses will be felt.  As dominate as the Seahawks were, especially in the Super Bowl, it is almost impossible

to replicate that type of play again.

The Seahawks are likely to take a step back from where they were last year so it’s lucky for them they were a step ahead of everyone else.  They play in the toughest division in football and their arch rival is also their biggest threat in the San Francisco 49ers.  As any champion will tell you it is harder to hold on to the title than it is to win it the first time.

1. Denver Broncos (2013 Record 13-3)

Yes I watched the Super Bowl and yes I know the Seahawks destroyed the Broncos but that was last year’s team and this is this year’s team.  The Broncos were missing some key personnel that not a lot of people talked about.  They were obviously missing Von Miller but there was one other huge missing piece that didn’t get talked about that would have made a difference, LT Ryan Clady.  Clady is a top notch LT and he missed last year with an injury, Chris Clark filled in admirably but he isn’t on Clady’s level especially at LT.  This year with Clady back Clark has flipped over to the right side where he is a better fit and that pushed Orlando Franklin inside to LG.  Clady’s return has improved 3 spots on the offensive line and that will make the Broncos offense better against strong defensive fronts like the Seahawks.  WR Emmanuel Sanders was signed after Eric Decker left meaning Manning’s offensive weapons will be just as potent and with Montee Ball taking the reins at RB they should be fine there.

The Broncos defense got some nice upgrades in free agency and just in returning healthy players.  Von Miller is a star when he can stay off suspension and keep himself healthy and he will have some help this year.  DeMarcus Ware was jettisoned by the Cowboys because the Cowboys don’t want good defensive players (okay it may have had more to do with money) and while Ware is no spring chicken he can still get it done.  Ware and Miller are going to be a scary pass rushing duo.  CB Aqib Talib had a fantastic year for the Patriots and he’ll be a huge upgrade over what was left of Champ Bailey last season. Bailey is a future Hall of Famer but he was a shell of his former self last year.  The healthy returns of CB Chris Harris and FS Rahim Moore are being overlooked because both of them upgrade the secondary.  SS TJ Ward was the other major free agent signing and he will bring a physical presence to the back end that the Broncos haven’t had in a while.

A team with a healthy Peyton Manning is always a contender for the Super Bowl and while I didn’t talk much about the reigning MVP it is because we all know how great he is.  Manning will get another shot at a Super Bowl trophy before he walks away one day and it very well could come this year.  This team is built to contend and bringing in great players like Ware, Ward and Talib help and getting back Manning’s personal security guard Ryan Clady will be bigger than anyone realizes.

 

The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night and tomorrow you’ll get my Thoughts and Predictions for the upcoming season.

We Might be better, we hope we aren’t worse.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers (2013 Record 8-8)

The Steelers have been treading water for the past couple of seasons and it seems to be where they are again except their players are now a year older, that’s okay for guys like Antonio Brown or Jarvis Jones but not so great for Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu.  Back-to-back 8-8 seasons are going to make the natives restless and while the Steelers organization isn’t prone to kneejerk reactions if Mike Tomlin’s squad can’t make some progress this year they could look to make a change on the sidelines.  Roethlisberger is a good QB but he’s 32 years old and his offensive line isn’t stellar.  The recent marijuana bust of RBs Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount doesn’t inspire confidence and while Antonio Brown has been really good at WR the last couple of years losing Emmanuel Sanders in free agency is going to put some pressure on Markus Wheaton to step up this season.

The defense is finally starting to get some youth with the rise of OLB Jarvis Jones and DE Cameron Heyward and the drafting of ILB Ryan Shazier.  LBs Jason Worilds and Lawrence Timmons are in the prime of their careers but SS Troy Polamalu, CB Ike Taylor and CB William Gay are past theirs.  Free agent signings of DL Cam Thomas and Mike Mitchell replaced older players with younger ones but they aren’t exactly an upgrade.  When you combine youth and age and a few average players you get exactly what the Steelers have been and that is a team that can only hope to be in the middle of the pack.

The Steelers seem to be stuck in limbo right now as they aren’t quite bad enough to start a complete rebuild especially when you have a QB that has won as much as Roethlisberger has but they are just not quite good enough to make the playoffs.  If their offensive line fails again and their age on defense shows through this team could bottom out pretty badly.  Big Ben can will them to a few victories they probably shouldn’t get but if they lose Bell and Blount to suspensions it could seriously damage them for a stretch and make this one ugly season.

18. Miami Dolphins (2013 Record 8-8)

From 2011 to 2013 the Dolphins went 6-10, 7-9, and 8-8 which might look like progress but it really wasn’t.  Last year was completely overshadowed by the bullying scandal that took place with the offensive line and the only silver lining out of it was that the Dolphins were forced to replace what was a terrible offensive line.  Free agent LT Brandon Albert finally made the move down from Kansas City while the Dolphins reached in the draft for new RT Ja’Wuan James.  The guard situation is up in the air which means C Mike Pouncey is the only guy coming back and starting where he was last season and even he is expected to be out at the beginning of the year.  Usually that much change is a concern but in this case it is a blessing for QB Ryan Tannehill.  RB Lamar Miller has looked solid in camp which is good because free agent signee Knowshon Moreno has reverted to his injury form.  TE Charles Clay played well last year while WR Brian Hartline was his steady self but Tannehill needs Mike Wallace to become the consistent deep threat the Dolphins are paying him to be if the offense is going to be a threat.

The Dolphins defense seems to be less than the sum of its parts.  The front four should be good after the breakout year of DE Olivier Vernon and the fact that Cameron Wake is still a threat.  DTs Randy Starks, Jared Odrick and free agent Earl Mitchell should make the middle very strong.  CB Brent Grimes was great last year and the Dolphins are hoping Cortland Finnegan can rediscover the player he was in Tennessee.  Free agent Louis Delmas would be a nice upgrade at safety if he can stay healthy which is something he has struggled to do throughout his career.  The biggest issue for the defense is with the linebacking corps which has three underachieving players.  The coaches are trying flip-flopping them all around to find where they fit best but unless Koa Misi, Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler all play considerably better the defense is going to suffer.

Head coach Joe Philbin needs this team to show major progress or the team may decide to go in a different direction.  They should be better than the Jets and at least as good as the Bills in the division but they still don’t look like a threat to the Patriots and they will struggle to make the playoffs again.  They are a team that could surprise but it just doesn’t seem like they are there yet.

17. Buffalo Bills (2013 Record 6-10)

This Bills team is going to try to change their story from “what is happening with the new ownership?” and “are they going to be moving?” to “can they fight for a playoff spot?”  The addition of WR Sammy Watkins in the draft was a bold move and it was made with the intent of giving EJ Manuel a fair chance at proving he is the franchise QB they have been missing since Jim Kelly retired.  RBs CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown give the offense a legitimate ground game while Watkins teams up with Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and TE Scott Chandler to give Manuel some options in the passing game.  Draftees Cyrus Kouandjio, Cyril Richardson and Seantrel Henderson give the Bills some new options that should improve the offensive line.

The Bills defense has to replace coordinator Mike Pettine the new Cleveland Browns head coach and he did a magnificent job last season with this unit.  They were able to actually turn DE Jerry Hughes into a good player something he had failed to do in the previous years in Indianapolis.  Hughes made for a nice bookend pass rusher for Mario Williams and DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams were pretty good too.  The biggest loss will be injured LB Kiko Alonso who was great last year but is out for the season.  The Bills needed help stopping the run and they signed Patriots castoff Brandon Spikes, who excels at stopping the run and they were hoping he could man the middle so they could move Alonso outside.  Now they will have Spikes flanked by Nigel Bradham and Keith Rivers so they certainly won’t be as good.  CBs Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin and safeties Da’Norris Searcy and Aaron Williams should prove to be a solid secondary.

While the Bills defense will miss Alonso they should still be pretty good so it is up to the offense to make strides.  A healthy EJ Manuel would go a long way towards making the offense more effective and that may come down to the play on the o-line keeping him upright.  The Bills won’t catch the Patriots but they should finish second in the division and could nab the last playoff spot in the AFC.

16. San Diego Chargers (2013 Record 9-7)

The Chargers snagged the last playoff spot in the AFC last season and that was a bit of a surprise.  QB Phillip Rivers had a good year and luckily for him the team made an excellent draft pick in 2013 with WR Keenan Allen.  Allen had dropped in the draft due to an underwhelming college season and an injury that prevented him from getting in workouts.  Injuries were a problem at WR for the Chargers and Allen stepped up and now he’s the go-to guy for Rivers.  RB Ryan Mathews finally played well after disappointing time and time again.  The offensive line is still underwhelming but they weren’t terrible which was a step up.  TE Antonio Gates was still productive but it’s youngster Ladarius Green that has people excited and he should be a weapon this year for Rivers.

The Chargers defense isn’t going to be confused for the Seahawks defense but they have some good players.  DEs Corey Luiget and Kendall Reyes, LBs Donald Butler and Jarrett Johnson and S Eric Weddle are all pretty good but they need some people to step up and be dynamic.  Returning from injury is OLB Melvin Ingram and they could really use his pass rushing skills because Dwight Freeney isn’t getting any younger, another young guy that could add a lot to this defense in rookie CB Jason Verrett.  Verrett is undersized but he has great cover skills and that is in short supply in the Chargers secondary.

Denver and Kansas City were the class of the AFC West last season and that probably isn’t going to change this year.  The Chargers were the best of a mediocre middle class in the AFC last year and they made the playoffs it may not be easy but they could do it again.  Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami and Buffalo all look like solid competition for the last playoff spot in the conference so we will see if the Chargers can pull it off again.

 

We are on our way, we hope.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013 Record 4-12)

My choice for the biggest turnaround this season is definitely the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The nightmare of the back-to-back tenures of head coaches Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano is finally over and has been replaced by the steady hand of Lovie Smith.  Smith was a beloved assistant under Tony Dungy and brings an NFL credibility that was lacking with the last two men.  The Bucs were easily the busiest team in free agency bringing in LT Anthony Collins, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, TE Brandon Myers, and QB Josh McCown on offense.  Collins, Dietrich-Smith and Myers certainly upgrade their positions while McCown brings a steady veteran in at QB.  Rookie WR Mike Evans should pair with Vincent Jackson to give McCown some nice weapons in the passing game.  Much of the success of the Bucs depends on if McCown can bring the magic with him that he showed in his short stint as the Bears starter last season as opposed to being the career backup he has been in the past.  The healthy return of RB Doug Martin would go a long way towards helping McCown also.

The offense wasn’t the only place the Bucs added quality starters in free agency.  DE Michael Johnson came down from Cincinnati to replace the underwhelming Da’Quan Bowers and CB Alterraun Verner came in to replace the departed Darrell Revis. DT Gerald McCoy proved to be one the best DTs in the league and the LB corps is solid with Lavonte David and Mason Foster leading the way.  If Lovie Smith can get the best out of DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Akeem Spence and second year CB Jonathan Banks the Buccaneers could have an excellent defense.

Arguably the biggest additions to this team are on the coaching staff.  Not only does Lovie Smith bring much more credibility than his predecessors but his staff has some great coaches.  Offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford was a long-time head coach at Cal and tutored some great QB’s, Aaron Rodgers being his shining star example.  Smith’s biggest issue when he was head coach of the Bears was always the offense but as long as he lets Tedford have the keys he shouldn’t have that problem anymore.  Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was the head man in Minnesota and has a great reputation on the defensive side and his philosophy meshes well with Smith’s.  TE coach Jon Embree, LB coach Hardy Nickerson and OL coach George Warhop are other examples of great quality coaches this team will benefit from.  The NFC South has a history of teams going from worst to first and it’s a distinct possibility that either the Bucs or the Falcons (both of whom finished 4-12 last year) could do that this season.

14. Detroit Lions (2013 Record 7-9)

While I’m a fan of Jim Caldwell the person and Jim Caldwell the offensive coordinator/QB coach he was an underwhelming choice as the new head coach.  I will give the Lions credit that they finally figured out that they need someone to harness QB Matthew Stafford’s considerable gifts if they are ever going to break out of their middling state.  The skill position talent around Stafford is very good with RBs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, TEs Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria and of course the dominate WR Calvin Johnson now has a solid running mate in Golden Tate.  Stafford has to eliminate the mistakes he makes that kill the offensive momentum that is what the new offensive minded staff is going to concentrate on.

The defense has plenty to work on but there is potential there.  DT Ndamukong Suh has a bad reputation as a dirty player but he’s pretty good.  DE Ezekiel Ansah brings pass rushing potential and the rest of the defensive line holds their own.  Rookie LB Kyle Van Noy was a fantastic selection and he will be big in terms of turning around a very average LB group.  The secondary has been a weakness for quite some time and even though CB Rashean Mathis held his own last year he is 33 years old and has a suspect injury history.  CB Darius Slay is okay but he shouldn’t be anyone’s top CB.  The defense needs to be more than the sum of its individual parts.

If the Lions defense can be a middle-of-the-pack group and Caldwell can up Stafford’s game the Lions could make some noise.  Everyone assumes that an injury free Green Bay team and the Bears will duke it out for the top of the division but the Lions have as much talent as anyone and they will make their presence felt.

13. Baltimore Ravens (2013 Record 8-8)

GM Ozzie Newsome knows this team is built to compete right now as they have many players in the primes of their careers not the least of which is franchise QB Joe Flacco.  Newsome doesn’t venture into the veteran free agent market that much as he has built most of this team through the draft but he went out and signed savvy veteran WR Steve Smith.  He’s hoping having Steve Smith paired with WR Torey Smith and the addition of a healthy Dennis Pitta at TE will be enough to get the offense humming again.  RB Ray Rice fell off a cliff last year in terms of production and his two game suspension for domestic abuse (don’t get me started on that one) isn’t going to get him off to a great start.  The Ravens hope the return of Bernard Pierce and the addition of rookie RB Lorenzo Taliaferro will reshape their running game.  The offensive line is solid after the in-season addition and subsequent re-signing of LT Eugene Monroe and the offseason trade for C Jeremy Zuttah but RT is still a question after letting the inconsistent Michael Oher leave in free agency without doing anything of consequence to help the position.

The hallmark of both Ravens Super Bowl winning squads was their defense and both times it was led by Ray Lewis.  Well Lewis is on TV now and LB Daryl Smith took over very capably last season and had one of the better years of his career.  They return a lot of talent in guys like DL Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, CB Ladarius Webb and S Matt Elam but it is the additions that could make a difference.  Rookie LB CJ Mosley is built for this defense and FS Terrence Brooks, while not a high draft pick, is good enough to come in and allow the Ravens to shift Elam to his more natural SS spot.  The pass rush should come from Suggs along with Elvis Dumervil and hopefully Courtney Upshaw.

A year after a Super Bowl title the Ravens went .500 and missed the playoffs in a weak AFC.  The good news is that the Ravens should be better than the Steelers and the Browns still aren’t a threat, the bad news is the Bengals have passed the Ravens as the class of the division and that probably won’t change this year.  Newsome drafts better than anyone in the league year after year and this team has better talent than an 8-8 squad.  John Harbaugh won a Super Bowl two years ago but he better get it together or he will learn that NFL stands for Not For Long.

12. Chicago Bears (2013 Record 8-8)

The Bears offense played pretty well last year with Jay Cutler at QB and some would say even better with Josh McCown under center.  Head coach Marc Trestman found that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery made for a large and spectacular pair at WR and he took advantage.  Martellus Bennett was solid at TE and Matt Forte is excellent at RB.  The one thing they finally addressed was their shotty offensive line.  LT Jermon Bushrod will never be mistaken for Orlando Pace but he held his own and rookies Jordan Mills and Kyle Long held down the right side of the line very well.

The Bears biggest problem on defense is that they have gotten old and their drafting on that side of the ball hasn’t done a great job of replacing the aging players.  They have brought in guys like Jay Ratliff and Jared Allen but that’s not helping the situation.  LB Lance Briggs and CB Charles Tillman are a year older and they are still going to be counted on and that could be a problem.  They hope that free agent additions Lamaar Houston and Willie Young and draft picks Will Sutton and Ego Ferguson can replenish their defensive line talent.  Shea McClellin hasn’t done much since he was drafted and now they are trying to make him a full-time OLB instead of a pass rushing DE.  The safety situation was a disaster last season and the Bears are hoping rookie Brock Vereen and free agent Ryan Mundy can rectify the situation, they can’t be any worse.

The Bears finished just behind the Packers last season in the NFC North a division that was pretty bad considering the Packers won it with an 8-7-1 record.  The Packers should be much better given their return to health and the Bears are going to have to hold off the Lions for second place.  If age catches up to their defense or if Jay Cutler stumbles it could go horribly wrong for Chicago but I think Cutler will be fine and the defense should hold on for another year.

The trendy thing these days is to create your own power rakings of teams and so instead of doing an NFL preview by division like I did last year I’m going to rank the teams from first to worst and then reveal them in reverse order starting with my worst teams and finishing at the top.  I’ll still do some predictions of how I see the season ending; division winners, MVP, ROY and my Super Bowl picks (pay no attention to the face that I picked Houston vs. Atlanta for the Super Bowl last year).  This is all in fun and as I proved last year I know a lot about the NFL and yet my predictions can still suck.  My Houston/Atlanta Super Bowl was a big miss but I also said an NFC team would finish 10-6 and miss the playoffs, Arizona did just that.  I also said Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer would be a great fit but the division was really tough, total hit on that one.  I missed on my Rex Ryan and Jason Garrett would be fired during the season predictions but I was right about Peyton Manning winning the MVP award.  I had 4 out of the six playoff teams right in both conferences but I whiffed big time on Carolina (they won their division, I had them being terrible) Atlanta (yikes) and Washington was atrocious instead of winning the NFC East.  In the AFC I had New England, Cincinnati and Denver all correctly winning their division but Houston completely blew it for me.  The AFC was pretty even in the middle with San Diego and Kansas City proving to be better than I thought and only Cleveland not being competitive like I thought they might.  For all my friends out there that wonder why I don’t bet on sports, this is why I don’t bet on sports.  At least in Fantasy Football I have a fighting chance.

On to The Hott Read’s NFL Power Rankings

The Terrible Twosome

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2013 Record 4-12):

I could have flipped a coin to decide which team got the bottom spot but I decided to go with the team that seems to have the least idea of what they want to do.  On offense they just spent their top three picks on offensive players (a QB and two WRs) but they don’t intend to play Blake Bortles instead they are going with run-of-the-mill QB Chad Henne.  I understand not wanting to throw a one-year wonder like Bortles into the lion’s den especially with a shaky (and that’s being kind) offensive line but I’m not sure putting the statue known as Chad Henne behind center is going to help.  LT Luke Joeckel is a talented player but he didn’t even play a full game at LT last season before breaking his leg and missing the rest of the year.  LG Zane Beadles is a nice pickup (even if he is overpaid) but the rest of the line isn’t scaring anyone, except the QB depth chart.  They signed free agent RB Toby Gerhart to get younger at tailback and add a guy with fresher legs.  The youth movement on offense is completely understandable for a rebuilding franchise which is what makes the defensive moves so strange.

The major defensive acquisitions on defense were the signings of DEs Chris Clemons and Red Bryant from the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks.  Head Coach Gus Bradley obviously knows these two from his days as Seattle’s defensive coordinator and while the Jaguars needed pass rushing help the signings of two guys on the wrong side of 30 is questionable.  Questionable would be an upgrade at many of the defensive positions.  MLB Paul Posluszny was just signed as a free agent a few years ago and is pretty good but he also turns 30 this year.  OLBs Geno Hayes and Dakoda Watson are in their mid-twenties and while they are fine they aren’t exactly setting the world on fire.  The secondary is of the most concern though.  There is an old saying “never bring a knife to a gun fight” and the NFL passing game has become a gun fight and the Jaguars are using a plastic butter knife to defend themselves.  CB Dwayne Gratz isn’t terrible but he shouldn’t be the top CB on any team.  Alan Ball is probably the worst starting CB in the NFL.  SS Jonathan Cyprien has loads of potential but it’s hard to see amongst the see of mediocrity.  As for FS Winston Guy well I don’t think he’s keeping offensive coordinators up at night.

The past two drafts have given the Jaguars some hope in the form of some potentially good players but the drafts from 2008-2012 were awful.  Signing free agents is part of the equation but look at any good team and the bulk of their rosters are drafted by the teams themselves.  The Jaguars have a long way to go to dig themselves out of the hole that 5 year stretch dug them.  If they hit on Bortles it would go a long way to climbing out of their perpetual rebuilding phase.

31. Oakland Raiders (2013 Record 4-12):

The only team that could give the Jaguars a run for their money on cluelessness would be the Raiders and their draft futility extends even farther back than the Jags’.  I’m not sure if the Raiders actually knew what they were doing this year or they just lucked into a solid draft class to build on but it finally looks like they get it.  Khalil Mack, Derek Carr, Gabe Jackson, Keith McGill and Justin Ellis could all contribute eventually but this team is still trying to build.  QB Matt Schaub was brought in to bring stability to the position but his immobility and propensity for turnovers could become a problem given the lack of talent on offense.  Free agent WR James Jones was a big play guy in Green Bay but he’s going to find it a lot harder without Aaron Rodgers throwing his way and without Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb taking all the coverage away.  Signing RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a great idea, if this were 2009, but a RB that turns 30 next year and has over 1800 carries in his career is not an investment in the future.  The Raiders offensive line is laughable with free agent castoffs Donald Penn at LT and Austin Howard at RG.  LG Kevin Boothe is a journeyman and RT Menelik Watson is inexperienced and was bounced around a lot last year.

The Raiders defense has two pieces I absolutely love in OLBs Khalil Mack and Sio Moore other than that I’m not impressed.  DT Pat Sims is solid and on this team that makes him look fantastic but it’s a mirage.  Old guys LaMarr Woodley and Justin Tuck were brought in to help the pass rush, again not a bad idea if this were 2009 but not going to help as much now.  CB DJ Hayden has talent but can’t seem to stay on the field and somehow Charles Woodson is still starting in the secondary for the Raiders.  I had to double check to see if that was the same Charles Woodson from Michigan or if he had a son in the league now.  There are a lot of people that want to judge head coach Dennis Allen on how this team performs but there is only so much a coach can do when he doesn’t have talent on his team.

Derek Carr has the potential to be the franchise QB this team has been looking for since Rich Gannon retired and I understand the impulse to not subject him to playing behind a bad offensive line.  No one wants to see Derek Carr’s career take the same shell-shocked path his brother David’s did but Carr is a better fit than Matt Schaub.  Schaub holds the ball too long and makes questionable decisions while Carr may make a bad decision here and there he’ll make them quicker and get the ball off a lot faster.  A quick release QB can save a few sacks every game and make an offensive line look better than it is, just look at the Denver Broncos last year (well except for the Super Bowl).

Hoping we aren’t as bad as they are. 

30. Tennessee Titans (2013 Record 7-9):

This is the first team on my list without a coach looking to save his job and that’s because last year’s 7-9 record already cost Mike Munchak this job and now Ken Whisenhunt is in charge.  Munchak wasn’t completely to blame for the Titans never moving forward but he certainly seemed in over his head as the head coach.  Whisenhunt proved he could coach when he took the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl and he did a magnificent job as offensive coordinator in San Diego last year.  Here’s the problem, he doesn’t have Kurt Warner or Phillip Rivers behind center in Tennessee and rolling the dice on Jake Locker seems like a losing proposition.  I really like Tennessee’s offensive line especially with the addition of rookie Taylor Lewan because he brings depth and competition at tackle.  The skill positions have potential but someone needs to step up as the star and whether it’s WR Kendall Wright or RB Bishop Sankey (my two choices) it would help if they had a good QB running things.  Locker doesn’t lack for athletic talent but he hasn’t proven to be durable or all that capable.  Whisenhunt brought in Charlie Whitehurst from San Diego to be the backup and that’s not bad but he hasn’t ever proven to be starting material either.  Former LSU standout Zach Mettenberger is rehabbing a knee injury and sitting third on the depth chart but he might have the brightest future at the position especially under the tutelage of Whisenhunt.

Whisenhunt did a great thing in hiring Ray Horton to be his new defensive coordinator but that means the Titans are going to be transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and that transition is never easy when you don’t have the right personnel.  The Titans don’t have natural 3-4 defensive ends and even though they signed OLB Shaun Phillips from Denver they lack the pass rushers needed to make Horton’s attacking style work.  Derrick Morgan will transition from DE to OLB, he wasn’t exactly lighting it up from his DE spot and moving him farther away from the QB is probably not going to solve the problem.  The breakout performer on last year’s squad was DT Jurrell Casey and he is going to be moving from his natural DT spot to DE and that might compromise the progress he made last year.  The secondary took a hit in free agency with the loss of CB Alterraun Verner and while Blidi Wreh-Wilson should be able to step in the depth in the secondary is thin.

The questions at QB, the lack of elite playmakers on offense, an entirely new coaching staff and a massive transition on defense are going to make for a tough year in Tennessee.  The Titans are lucky enough to play in a division with the Jaguars and the Texans so they may win more games than they should but year 1 for Whisenhunt could be tough and a high draft pick may mean big changes, like new QB big.  I think Whisenhunt is going to want to get a look at Mettenberger at some point unless Jake Locker pulls a miracle out of the air and actually plays like a franchise QB.

29. Minnesota Vikings (2013 Record 5-10-1):

I am as big a fan of Teddy Bridgewater’s future as anyone and I like the fact that he has Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph around him but he isn’t getting the call right away and the Vikings have other issues.  Matt Cassel won the job coming out of camp and I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing because the Vikings offense has a long way to go.  New offensive coordinator Norv Turner is great but trying to get all of the pieces to fit together is a challenge and so will playing outdoors in the Minnesota Golden Gophers stadium while their replacement stadium is being built.  New head coach Mike Zimmer will certainly bring a different attitude  than former coach Leslie Frazier but all that attitude isn’t going to make up for the deficiencies this team has on the defense.

The defense wasn’t exactly stellar last season and I don’t think it is going to get markedly better this year.  LB Chad Greenway has been a stalwart and LB Anthony Barr may be the future but Greenway can’t play forever and Barr is making a move to an OLB spot he isn’t going to be completely comfortable in.  DE Everson Griffin was re-signed and while he played well last year he now has to produce like a starter because now he is one.  Jared Allen may have lost a step last year but he still had to be accounted for in the pass rush.  I love the signing of DT Linval Joseph and pairing him with Sharrif Floyd up front should help the front line tremendously.  The Vikings need health in the secondary, especially Harrison Smith, and Xavier Rhodes and Captain Munnerlyn have to prove to be a solid duo at CB.  The defense lacks overall depth and any injury would hurt them but the linebacker corps and the safety positions are especially thin.

If Bridgewater can build a rapport with Patterson and Rudolph it would be a very good sign for the future of the passing attack.  The biggest problem on offense is can the passing attack get good soon enough to take advantage of having one of the best RBs in the NFL.  The defense has all kinds of problems and while Barr has massive potential he isn’t going to be enough this year and the Vikings might be out of games too early to use Peterson the way they should.

28. Cleveland Browns (2013 Record 4-12):

A team coming off a 4-12 season bringing in a new coaching staff (again) and not quite sure who their QB is going to be this year.  That doesn’t sound promising.  Oh and their best offensive is suspended for the year, sounds like the Cleveland Browns to me.  I’m having a hard time getting behind the Mike Pettine hire and it’s not because I have something against Pettine it’s just that I have that little faith in a team that has fired its last two coaches after a single season on the sidelines.  Pettine is known to be a fiery kind of guy and that will work for a while but if the losses pile up that style will wear thin quickly with his players.  Of course the season will most likely be defined by the Johnny Football and how quickly he takes over.  Kyle Shanahan’s offense should be able to accommodate some of Manziel’s gunslinger style but Manziel is going to have to find a way to run the offense without running around all the time.  RB Ben Tate was a nice pickup in theory because he fits Shanahan’s preferred style of running behind a zone blocking offensive line.  However, Tate is injury prone and it won’t surprise me at all if rookie Terrance West ends up with more yards on the year than Tate, he is tailor-made for this offense.

Cleveland’s defense was better than its numbers showed last year because the offense was so inept the defense struggled at times.  The loss of coordinator Ray Horton hurts but luckily for the players Pettine will bring in a similar scheme and the same attacking mentality they had before, now they just have to execute it better.  The Browns have to get more than the roughly five sacks apiece they got from their three top pass rushers Jabaal Sheard, Barkevious Mingo and Paul Kruger.  Their starting defensive line can be quite good at holding the point of attack and keeping the linebackers clear but these three have to get to the QB.  Rookie ILB Christian Kirksey should pair nicely with free agent addition Karlos Dansby and the inside linebacker play should be much improved.  The drafting of Justin Gilbert seriously upgrades the coverage in the secondary and bumping Buster Skrine to nickel corner helps too.  Joe Haden is a legitimate top flight CB and he finally has a worthy running mate.  The safety play needs to be better but not having to help out as much in coverage will help.

The Browns are trying once again to catch lightning in a bottle at QB because everyone knows the quickest way to turn around a franchise is to get a franchise QB.  Manziel might be the answer eventually but throwing him out there with Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins as his top two WRs is not going to turn things around.  Tate and West should provide a solid running game and the offensive line should be better but a major turnaround off a 4-12 season with a new coaching staff just doesn’t seem likely.  At least Johnny Football sells jerseys, tickets and should be fun to watch.

27. Houston Texans (2013 Record 2-14):

My 2013 pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl started last season with back-to-back wins and then proceeded to lose 14 straight games.  That is why Gary Kubiak is now the offensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens and Bill O’Brien is back in the NFL.  The Texans have loads of talent on their roster, WRs Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, RB Arian Foster, DE JJ Watt, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, ILB Brian Cushing, CB Jonathan Joseph, LT Duane Brown (one of the best in the league) so why am I picking them this low in the power rankings?  The one position you don’t see listed is QB.  As of right now the starting QB for the Houston Texans on opening weekend is Ryan Fitzpatrick.  By all accounts Ryan Fitzpatrick is a great guy, a hell of a teammate and an extremely smart man but I’ve seen him play before and Bill O’Brien is a coach not a magician.  The alternative is Case Keenum until this weekend when they finally pulled off the rumored trade for QB Ryan Mallet from the Patriots.  This move would have been much better before camp because now Mallet is coming in without any reps with the team.  He should be able to pick up the offense pretty quickly because it’s similar to the one he ran in New England.  Mallet wasn’t very good in the preseason and that’s why he was available.  Rookie Tom Savage should get a shot at some point but he just isn’t ready yet and by the time he is the season may be beyond repair.

The QB is the major problem and truthfully maybe the only problem on offense if Arian Foster can stay healthy at RB (a big if).  There are more than a couple of questions on new defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel’s defense.  Watt is a star and a difference maker or at least he was under the previous regime. Will Crennel get the best out of him?  Jadeveon Clowney is an athletic freak and a QB’s worst nightmare but can he make the transition to OLB from DE?  Jonathan Joseph is a great CB and DJ Swearinger has great potential at SS but will Kareem Jackson finally step up opposite Joseph?  And who is going to be the FS?  When there are questions at every level of the defense and you are dealing with a new coaching staff all of the answers rarely come out positive.  Oh and if the defense plays lights out their QB is still Ryan Fitzpatrick.

We wish we were better.

26. New York Jets (2013 Record 8-8)

After going 11-5 in 2010 the Jet’s last three records have been 8-8, 6-10, and 8-8 and honestly it’s probably about where they will end up again.  While 8-8 probably won’t be the eighth worst record in the NFL this year the Jets are just treading water because they just can’t help themselves.  Their offense was atrocious last year and their solution was to go out and sign QB Michael Vick (just to make their QB competition that much more complicated) RB Chris Johnson (because Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell weren’t enough average RBs for the roster) and WR Eric Decker (a fantastic #2 WR when Peyton Manning was his QB but now he’s Geno Smith’s #1 WR).  The term middling means medium, average or in the middle and that is what the Jets are and it looks like they plan to stay that way.  If the Jets believe that Chris Johnson is going to have some sort of rebirth in New York after several below average years in Tennessee than I have a bridge in New York I’d like to talk to them about selling.

The defense played very well last year and that’s the reason they won 8 games and it’s because Rex Ryan is a fantastic defensive coach.  The problem for the team is that while Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson proved to be fantastic defensive linemen in the 3-4 defense and they are young the rest of the defense is still questionable.  OLB Calvin Pace was good last year rushing the passer but he’s 33 years old.  CB Dee Milliner can’t seem to stay healthy and their secondary isn’t exactly brimming with talent.  Rookie safety Calvin Pryor is going to be asked to do a lot on the back end.  This defense was better than the sum of its parts last season and Rex Ryan is going to have to pull that off again to keep his team in games.

Michael Vick might be a better QB than Geno Smith but Geno is the future and Vick wouldn’t last four games behind the Jets offensive line.  Decker is a talented WR but they have no one to pull coverage away from him.  Stephen Hill just got cut and Jeremy Kerley is a nice 3^rd WR but he isn’t scaring anyone.  The Jets are just treading water until they figure out if Geno really is the franchise QB they need him to be and the defense is good enough to keep them in games in the meantime.  I’m not sure they are giving Smith a fair chance with below average skill position players like TE Jeff Cumberland (good blocker but no threat in the passing game).  They are hoping rookie TE Jace Amaro gives them another weapon but he’s a fairly one dimensional TE at the moment.  The running game is going to be average at best unless Chris Johnson can miraculously pull one last great season out of his…legs.  The only way this team gets better is if they hit the jackpot at #12 or so in the draft next year or Geno tanks and the season goes down the tubes and they actually start a rebuild next year.  Middling is not where you want to be in the NFL it’s harder to get out of than being terrible.

25. New York Giants (2013 Record 8-8)

The other New York team is in the same boat as the first New York team.  The Giants actually have a Super Bowl winning coach and QB combo so their reasoning for not going for a total rebuild is understandable (if you figure out the Jets’ reasons let me know).  QB Eli Manning and WRs Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham are a nice start on offense but the rest of it is suspect.  The biggest problem last year was their abysmal offensive line and while they didn’t ignore it their attempts to fix it were the proverbial band-aide on a bullet wound.  Rookie C Weston Richburg is a talent and he’ll be starting eventually but the Giants still don’t know if it will be at C or OG, not a great position for a rookie to be in.  Geoff Schwartz and John Jerry are veterans at OG but neither of them is making the Pro Bowl any time soon.  OTs William Beatty and Justin Pugh are being counted on to make strides on their own and Eli has his fingers crossed.  The big free agent addition was RB Rashad Jennings from the Raiders, no offense to him but he’s been in the league for six years and has never been a full-time starter.  Last year he filled in admirably for Darren McFadden in Oakland but counting on Jennings to carry the load is foolish.  Unfortunately RB David Wilson’s career is over at 23 because of a neck injury and the Giants are hoping Jennings is the answer.  Jennings is 29 years old and the next 29 year old RB to breakout will be the first 29 year old RB to breakout.  Rookie Andre Williams out of Boston College is a far better candidate to breakout in the backfield for the Giants and they need it.  Williams is one of the worst pass catching RBs I’ve ever seen but he can carry the load on first and second down and he knows how to find the end zone.

The good news on defense is that Jason Pierre-Paul can’t possibly have as many injuries and be as ineffective as he was last year and at 25 years old he should bounce back.  The bad news is that the Giants still have to start 11 on defense like everyone else and they weren’t very good last year.  DE Damontre Moore, DT Jonathan Hankins and CB Prince Amukamara are young guys that have promise but older players like DT Cullen Jenkins, LB Jon Beason, SS Antrel Rolle and FS Quintin Demps aren’t getting better at this point.  Beason is flanked by Spencer Paysinger and Jameel McClain to form the worst LB corps in the league and while free agent signee CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is in the prime of his career it may be wasted on this defense.

The Giants got a new offensive coordinator in Ben McAdoo who comes over after being QB coach in Green Bay.  The offensive philosophy is going to change and that’s good news for Eli Manning because it means getting the ball to the playmakers quicker.  McAdoo saw what Aaron Rodgers did with a supreme WR group and a solid running game and if he can coax a running attack out of Jennings or Williams it would go a long way towards helping the Giants get back into contention.  I think the Giants defense is going to let them down but they may still end up in the middle of the pack if their offense gets straightened out.

24. Washington Redskins (2013 Record 3-13)

This team can’t possibly be this bad again can it?  The tension plaguing QB Robert Griffin is gone now that the Shanahan’s are gone which should make for a more harmonious locker room.  New head coach Jay Gruden (yep Jon’s brother) made Andy Dalton into a solid NFL starter (in the regular season anyway) so what can he do with a talent like Griffin.  Washington went out and got WRs DeSean Jackson (the headliner) and Andre Roberts (underrated) to add to Griffin’s offensive weapons.  WR Pierre Garcon was pretty good last year but with Jackson and Roberts as his new running mates he should be even better.  TE Jordan Reed showed he could be playmaker and RB Alfred Morris is as solid as they come.  So Washington has the skill positions in order but that wasn’t their main problem last season, the offensive line was terrible.  Free agent LG Shaun Lauvoa and 3^rd round draft pick RT Morgan Moses were the only new additions and they probably won’t be enough.  LT Trent Williams is very good but he needs more help and at this point Moses hasn’t even beaten out incumbent RT Tyler Polumbus, that’s bad news for Griffin.

The Redskins lost the heart and soul of their defense when London Fletcher retired in the offseason.  OLBs Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan are the two bright spots left on an otherwise aging depth chart.   CB David Amerson may have a bright future but at this point he gambles too much and gets beat too often.  The two big free agent additions on defense were 32 year old DE Jason Hatcher who joins 30 some things Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen on the three man line and 34 year old FS Ryan Clark who joins 30 some things DeAngelo Hall and Brandon Merriweather with Amerson in the secondary.  You would think a veteran laden defense would be better than this but you would be wrong.

The Redskins are another team that can’t figure out if they are going up or down.  The offense has young exciting players in Griffin, Morris, Jackson, Garcon, Reed and Williams but the defense hardly has anyone in their prime or still looking to grow and get better.  Griffin is the X-factor for this team because if he stays healthy he could carry them on his back but his style of play lends itself to getting injured and while Kirk Cousins is a solid backup he can’t carry this defense to many victories.

Injuries already derailed us.

23. Atlanta Falcons (2013 Record 4-12)

Out of all of the teams that had injury problems last year no one had more key ones than the Falcons…okay sorry the Packers actually win that title but the Falcons were a close second.  They already sustained their first major injury so they are trying early to win the title this year.  LT Sam Baker was lost during a preseason game and while losing your starting LT isn’t good news in the long run it might be for the best.  Baker has never been a dominate player at the position and rookie OT Jake Matthews, who was slated to start at RT, can now move over right away and stake his claim to what was supposed to be his future spot.  The offensive line was a disaster last year and having Matthews take over the cornerstone position is for the best.  WR Julio Jones was off to a stellar start last year until an injury took him out early.  QB Matt Ryan is going to be happy to have him and Roddy White back healthy this season.  Steven Jackson’s age finally caught up to him and while Jacquizz Rodgers has been around for a few years look out for rookie Devonta Freeman when Jackson goes down again, and yes I meant when not if.

The defense is getting a whole new look as they are changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 look.  Newly signed DE Tyson Jackson and NT Paul Soliai fit the new scheme but they are hardly difference makers.  This transition wasn’t made any easier when LB Sean Wetherspoon went down for the year early in camp (they really are getting a jump on that injury trophy).  Osi Umenyiora and Kroy Biermann are making the transition to OLB and that might not be pretty.  Rookie CBs Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford showed a lot of promise last season but they aren’t getting a lot of help from the front seven.

The AFC South division has a history of teams going from worst to first and the Falcons tied for worst in the division at 4-12 with the Buccaneers. The Panthers will struggle to retain their division title but if I were a betting man I’d wager on the Bucs making the turnaround not the Falcons.

22. St. Louis Rams (2013 Record 7-9)

The Rams play in the toughest division in football and they still managed to go 7-9 without their starting QB for a long stretch.  Their problem now is that that QB just went out for the season with a torn ACL again.  Sam Bradford’s ACL’s are made out of tissue paper yet the Rams rolled the dice again and it came up snake eyes.  The new starting QB is 34 year old Shaun Hill and while he will be better than what they had last year after losing Bradford there is a reason why he’s only started 26 games in his 13 year career.  WR Tavon Austin was drafted to be a major playmaker and the Rams still have high hopes even though he didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first year.  They brought in Titans castoff Kenny Britt because he is still young and has loads of physical ability.  Jeff Fisher knows Britt well and Britt’s best years happened under Fisher.  Zac Stacy was a revelation at RB as a rookie and carried the offense when Bradford went down; guess what Zac you’re up again.

The best front four in football resides in St. Louis.  DEs Robert Quinn and Chris Long complement each other very well and DTs Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers are very good.  The addition of rookie DT Aaron Donald takes this unit to a new level.  LB Alec Ogletree had a good rookie year and he will just get better.  The CBs are solid with Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson starting and Lamarcus Joyner adds nice depth as the nickel corner.  MLB James Laurinaitis is a good leader and makes sure everyone knows where to be, he is the unsung hero of the unit and while he doesn’t get the credit he deserves his coaches and opponents know his value.

A division with the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks, the returned to glory San Francisco 49ers and a 10-6 Arizona Cardinals team with a chip on their shoulder because they didn’t make the playoffs is going to make improvement very tough for the Rams.  The Rams couldn’t help themselves and they went with Bradford again and he again proved he’s made out of glass.  A healthy season out of Bradford might have given this team a chance to compete but with Shaun Hill they are just mediocre and in their division that guarantees six losses.  The Rams will have to cut bait with Bradford now and start over at QB their biggest problem is that they probably are too good everywhere else to be completely terrible.  They can always hope a good QB falls in the draft.

If these two teams could combine they might be good but that’s not allowed.

21. Dallas Cowboys (2013 Record 8-8)

An offense that features Tony Romo with a healthy DeMarco Murray in the backfield and receiving threats like Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Terrence Williams will put points on the board.  The Cowboys finally stopped ignoring the offensive line and have invested first round picks in Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin over the past several years so what was once a major liability is becoming a strength.  Tony Romo and Jason Witten aren’t getting any younger but they both still have some game left and Bryant, Murray and Williams are just coming into their prime.  The offense is not the problem for the Cowboys but it seems like they forgot they have to play defense too.  Their game plan must to be to outscore every opponent and while that isn’t much of a long term solution it is the only one they have at the moment.

The Dallas defense was terrible last year and they proceeded to lose DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher in free agency and then Sean Lee was lost for the season to a knee injury.  Losing the three best players off of what was an awful defense doesn’t bode well for the upcoming season.  The only big free agent addition was DT Henry Melton and that won’t be enough to make up for the losses on the defensive front.  Rookie Demarcus Lawrence was supposed to be the guy to come in and bring some pass rushing help but he sustained a foot injury that he is trying to come back from so no one knows how much help he can provide or when that might happen.

The Cowboys offense is going to be good but they might crumble under the pressure of having to score 30 points a game just to have a shot to win.  Barring the Cowboys having a record setting offense (and they would need to shatter the scoring record) this team will be lucky to get coach Jason Garrett another 8-8 season.  While an 8-8 season might be enough to convince Jerry Jones to stubbornly keep Garrett like he has the past two off seasons if the Cowboys go 4-12 or 5-11 Jones is going to have a really hard time justifying Garrett’s job.  Of course if there is one thing we can count on from the Cowboys it’s Jerry Jones’s stubbornness.

20. Carolina Panthers (2013 Record 12-4)

The Panthers are the first team I’m choosing to take a huge step back this season.  After going 12-4 and winning their division I see this team slipping which is something that happens a lot in the NFC South.  They are the inverse of the Dallas Cowboys in the fact that they have a fantastic defense but their offense looks incredibly bad especially on paper.  The Panthers lost their top 4 WRs from last season (Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn Jr., Dominik Hixon) and their offensive line lost stalwart LT Jordan Gross.  The offensive line wasn’t exactly a strength last season anyway and losing Gross means moving Byron Bell to LT and slotting Nate Chandler in at RT, Cam Newton can’t be happy about these moves.  C Ryan Kalil is the only player on the offensive line that rates as above average so not only is Newton going to be in a hurry to throw the ball but he’s working with an entirely new and underwhelming WR corps.  Rookie Kelvin Benjamin has to step up and become the go-to guy because veterans Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery are not going to scare anyone.  RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are decent backs that are going to struggle behind this offensive line.

The good news for the Panthers is that there defense will keep them in games.  They have arguably the best defensive line in the league with DEs Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy flanking DTs Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei.  Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly backs them up at MLB and tackles everything in sight.  The secondary wasn’t great last year and many of their problems were masked by the fantastic front four but the Panthers are hoping that the addition of a new safety tandem in Roman Harper and Thomas DeCoud will help on the back end.

The Panthers offense looks like a mess and it could really set Cam Newton’s development back if the offensive line is as bad as it seems and if Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t step up as they hope.  TE Greg Olsen is going to be Newton’s only reliable target in the passing game and that only helps if Newton stays on his feet.  This team takes a major step back as both Atlanta and Tampa Bay take steps forward in the division and New Orleans is still tough.

The coaching staff that had been unusually stable for Kirk Ferentz’s first 13 seasons has seen some change over in the last three but only one change came this spring.  Late in spring recruiting coordinator and long-time assistant coach Eric Johnson left the coaching business and was replaced by Seth Wallace, a young up-and-coming former Graduate Assistant that went on to great success at Valdosta State.  While at Valdosta State Wallace served as defensive coordinator for three years including during their 2012 Division II National Championship season.  He will help out on the defensive side of the ball as well as serve as the new recruiting coordinator.

The previous staff additions helped usher in a new defensive package last year called the “Raider” package that got extra pass rushers on the field (Reggie Spearman, Quinton Alston and Nate Meier mostly).  Now that those guys are going to be counted on to step into regular defensive roles it will be interesting to see what the staff does this year.  The Hawkeyes lost the core of last year’s defense with the graduation of three outstanding LB’s Christian Kirksey, James Morris and Anthony Hitchens.  The defensive line returns mostly intact and hopefully better for it.  The secondary lost long-time starting FS Tanner Miller (most would say that’s not a big loss) and CB BJ Lowery.  While losing half of the starting defense would make you think there would be a lot of camp battles on the defensive side the only real competition for a starting job looks to be at CB opposite last year’s breakout defender Desmond King.  Maurice Fleming and Sean Draper will duke it out for that spot and truthfully we will likely see a lot of both of them regardless of who wins.  Nate Meier might make a run at the DE position but if Mike Hardy can stay healthy his size and experience will keep Meier in his designated pass rusher role.

Defensive Line

DT Carl Davis is the headliner here and if it weren’t for Brandon Scherff it would be Davis getting all the NFL draft love.  At 6’5 315 lbs. he is a beast in the middle and possibly a first round NFL draft pick.  He isn’t the only talent inside though.  Louis Trinca-Pasat is a fantastic partner next to Davis and the depth is incredible at DT.  DE Drew Ott is looking to take the next step and be the outside pass rusher the Hawkeyes need.  He is already good against the run it is taking the next step of getting to the QB that Ott needs to make.  Mike Hardy is tall and strong and has spent too much time injured and he’s looking to make his mark his senior year.  He’ll have to hold off Meier but the competition should make him better.

Defensive End

Starters:  Drew Ott  Junior; Mike Hardy  Senior

Ott proved to be a very solid end last year and he plays the run very well.  Pass rushing has not been his strong suit so that has to be the focus for him in camp.  He should find Saturdays in the fall to be fairly easy considering he’ll spend the rest of his week lining up across from Brandon Scherff.  Ott won’t play against a player all season that will match up with the guy he has to practice against every day.  If Ott can prove to be a better pass rusher Iowa will not need to go to their Raider package quite so often.  Hardy had some health issues in the past but last year he stepped up the last half of the season and played pretty well.  He certainly looks the part at 6’5 280 lbs. and it’s his size and experience that gives him a leg up on Nate Meier for the starting job.  Hardy doesn’t set the world on fire as a pass rusher but he plays his position well and he knows how to set the edge in run defense.  He will be a solid DE and an unheralded player but he’ll make life easier on the new linebackers.

Backups:  Nate Meier  Junior;  Riley McMinn  Junior,  Melvin Spears  Junior

Meier is a hard working player that does a good job as a pass rusher but his undersized frame will keep him from overtaking Hardy because it can be a liability against the run.  Meier took a couple of years to find his spot as a DE so he is still growing into the role but he brings much needed speed off the edge.  McMinn has largely been in the same boat as Hardy in the fact that every time it looked like he might make a move on the depth chart some sort of injury slowed him down.  He brings great length at 6’7 and if he can generate some pressure he will earn some playing time.  Spears is another undersized DE and while he’s made the two-deeps a number of times it has never really translated to meaningful playing time.  I have a feeling Spears will find himself losing reps to some of the younger talent as the coaches try to get them prepared for playing in the future.  Right now Spears looks like the fifth man in a four man rotation.

The Future:  Torey Hendrick  Sophomore (maybe);  Matt Nelson  Freshman;  Terrence Harris  Freshman; Walk-ons to watch: Sam Brincks  Freshman;  Jake Hulett  RS Freshman

Torey Hendrick is an odd story and you won’t be seeing him play this year anyway.  He is a junior college transfer with some academic issues that is going to be here this year but due to some strange NCAA rule he has to redshirt, at least that’s what we all think.  Trust me even Kirk Ferentz isn’t completely sure why and he’s been a head football coach for 16 years.  He should be a great addition as a pass rusher next season…I hope.  Matt Nelson was one of the headliners of this recruiting class but at 6’8 255 lbs. he’s still a bean pole and I’m fairly certain the coaches are going to redshirt him just so he doesn’t get snapped in half.  Terrence Harris is an underrated recruit with some really nice pass rushing skills.  He played high school football with one of the top rated recruits in the country last year (Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers) and I can’t figure out why he wasn’t a bigger recruit.  I’m going to talk more about Harris in my Raider package section below so stay tuned.  Normally I don’t talk much about walk-ons unless they have been mentioned by the coaches but I really like Sam Brincks potential just from what I’ve seen of his high school film.  He’s still skinny at 6’3 250 lbs. but he could develop quickly and I think the coaches may have found an unpolished gem.  Hulett hasn’t really made noise either but I like his size and athleticism.  The Hawkeyes haven’t had great luck recruiting DE’s lately but I think these five guys could help turn that around.

Defensive Tackle

Starters:  Carl Davis  Senior;  Louis Trinca-Pasat  Senior

Davis and Trinca-Pasat have proven to be quite the combo in the middle of the defensive line.  Davis is a massive human being and he’s going to get all the accolades but it really is the two of them complementing each other that makes them so effective.  At 290 lbs. Trinca-Pasat is the smaller guy that can penetrate and disrupt the back field with his quickness.  Davis just bowls people over or splits the double team and throws the offense off that way.  Neither one is a great pass rusher but no one is going to run up the middle against the wall these two make.  It’s been a while since Iowa had a DT with the size and ability of Davis and he’s done an excellent job of remaking his body from just a big guy to a strong and powerful player with the size scouts love.  He has good technique and while he sometimes plays too tall that’s understandable considering he’s 6’5.  The Hawkeyes defensive line strength is definitely up the middle.

Backups:  Jaleel Johnson  Sophomore;  Darian Cooper  Junior;  Faith Ekakitie  Sophomore

The strength up the middle doesn’t end with the starters.  Johnson is almost as big as Davis and while he lacks the refinement Davis has gained over the years he’s still a load to move.  Darian Cooper is more in the Trinca-Pasat mold in the fact that he is the smaller penetrating tackle.  The curious thing is that Johnson is listed as Trinca-Pasat’s backup while Cooper is Davis’.  Either way these four can mix and match given the down and distance and they can keep each other fresh which makes for better play all around.  Ekakitie is the fifth man and he’s trying to break into the rotation, while he may not get a lot of snaps he is growing into the position and learning and he brings great depth.

The Future:  Nathan Bazata  RS Freshman; Brant Gressel  RS Freshman

These two are the only youngsters on the team that are coming up behind the others and while Bazata made the two-deeps this is a definite position of need in upcoming recruiting classes.

Linebackers

It is absolutely not possible to replace the production and the leadership that the Hawkeyes had with James Morris, Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey.  However, I think the Hawkeyes are going to be just fine because they have three pretty good players that have already staked their claims to the three starting spots.  Quinton Alston is ready to finally get his chance, Travis Perry has worked his tail off to earn a scholarship and a starting spot and Reggie Spearman has proven that age (he was a 17-year-old freshman last year and just turned 18) means nothing; if you’re ready you’re ready.  The depth, like the starters, is talented but inexperienced.

Outside Linebacker (LEO)

Starter:  Travis Perry  Junior

Football teams use different terms for their linebackers and Iowa refers to this position as the LEO.  It’s the strongside linebacker meaning he lines up over the TE most of the time and is the coverage guy, more simply put Perry is replacing Christian Kirksey.  This is the more unsung position because it usually has less tackles but in Hawkeyeland this position is extremely important.  Perry just earned a scholarship this year as a fourth-year junior and while he won’t get the fanfare of the other guys he’s a huge contributor and he’ll be very good here.  He backed up Kirksey last year, played a lot of special teams and saw some action on defense so he’s ready and able to step in.

Backup:  Josey Jewell  RS Freshman

Perry was sick during spring practice and Jewell stepped into his spot and held his own very well for an undersized freshman.  He has great athleticism which is a must at a position where you are asked to cover TEs, RBs and the occasional WR.  Kirksey was an amazing athlete and hopefully Jewell was paying attention last year and this year he can learn from the smart play of Perry.

Middle Linebacker (MIKE)

Starter:  Quinton Alston  Senior

I do not want to diminish the career of James Morris and I appreciate what he did at Iowa more than most probably realize but I say with a lot of confidence that Iowa’s play at MLB won’t drop off at all and there is a real chance it is actually better this year.  Alston has been biding his time and he’s ready to shine.  He will be a beast against the run and the coaches may use him even more as a blitzer than they did Morris because Alston has a natural knack for it.  Any opponent that underestimates what Alston brings to the field is going to find out quickly that he’s been primed for this day for the past couple of years.  He could be Iowa defensive breakout star.

Backup:  Chad Gilson  Senior

Gilson is a great story and a crappy one all at the same time.  He gave up his full-ride scholarship at UNI and transferred as a walk-on to Iowa because he just wanted to be a Hawkeye that bad and take his shot at big time football.  Unfortunately he ends up as a senior behind a senior because he isn’t beating out Alston.  Gilson showed in spring practice that he can play with the big boys and  I have a feeling that coaches will find a way to get him on the field from time to time.

Outside Linebacker (WILL)

Starter:  Reggie Spearman  Sophomore

I’m still amazed that a kid that was a 17-year-old freshman last year came in and found playing time even if it was in a specific package.  Now the experience he gained from that and his talent have earned him a starting spot as the weakside linebacker.  Spearman showed great athleticism last year and his reward is having to replace Anthony Hitchens and his hundred-tackles-a-year production.  No pressure kid.  He’s a special talent that has obviously taken to the coaching of Levar Woods and Jim Reid and he is mature beyond his years.

Backup:  Cole Fisher  Junior

Fisher is holding down the backup spot for now but he will have some younger guys nipping at his heels all season long and like many positions the coaches try to get the best players on the field even if it means switching them around.  I would say that puts Fisher as the 6^th best linebacker at best and he may be moving down the list as we speak.  He contributes on special teams and knows his role so he isn’t a bad guy to have around.

The Future:  John Kenny  RS Freshman; Bo Bower  RS Freshman; Jameer Outsey  Freshman; Aaron Mends  Freshman; Parker Hesse  Freshman; Ben Niemann  Freshman

When you add in Josey Jewell whom I already wrote about above there are seven linebackers in the last two recruiting classes and while Bo Bower is a walk-on for now he is listed as a back-up in the two-deeps so he’s obviously made an impression.  This position is young and talented.  Jewell and Bower both back up Perry at LEO while John Kenny is listed as a backup at both MIKE and WILL and he looked good in the middle during spring practice.  With both Alston and Gilson as seniors Kenny looks like the future in the middle of the Hawkeye defense.  The true freshmen haven’t had a chance to make their marks yet and while I expect Mends, Hesse and Niemann to all redshirt any one of them could end up contributing on special teams.  I leave Outsey out because I think he may contribute in the Raider package and I’m about to get to all of that.

The Raider Package

Anyone that has been a fan of the Hawkeyes during Kirk Ferentz’s tenure and especially during the Norm Parker years knows that for a long time Iowa was a very vanilla bend-but-don’t-break defense and it worked very well under Parker’s guidance most of the time.  A few years ago the Hawkeyes failed in the “don’t-break” part of that and the defense struggled.  Phil Parker’s first year replacing Norm wasn’t a rousing success but there was a transition going on and Jim Reid came aboard and whether it was just changing with the times or out of necessity to get some pass rushing pressure Iowa started using a blitz package they call the Raider package.  There is a misconception that the Raider package is just simply getting edge rushing blitzers on the field in passing down situations and letting them rush the QB but its more complex than that.  It’s not a coincidence that the three main players that contributed in this sub package last year were two LBs by trade (Alston and Spearman) and a guy transitioning from LB to DE (Meier).  The Raider package is about getting guys on the field that can fill certain roles so that just about anyone can be a blitzer.  Last year when Alston or Spearman came in it wasn’t always them rushing the passer it could be Hitchens, Morris or Kirksey too.  Alston and Spearman and to a lesser extent Meier were able to cover the LB duties allowing one of the others to blitz.  This causes confusion and makes the defense much harder to read for the opposing QB.

This year with Alston and Spearman taking over regular LB spots they will already be on the field meaning new subs will be needed.  Chad Gilson could sub in and play the MLB spot allowing Alston to blitz or Josey Jewell could come on freeing Perry or Spearman.  Gilson and Jewell look like the most logical candidates at linebacker to get some playing time and John Kenny has some position versatility that may allow him a chance to play also.  However, last year at this time if you had known about the Raider package and had to pick someone to be used Reggie Spearman’s name probably wouldn’t have been on your list. There are two incoming freshmen that may bring some skills that could be useful in this package, Terrence Harris and Jameer Outsey.  Harris is a different kind of rusher than Iowa currently has on their defense because he has a slight build and uses his speed off the edge.  Harris is not physically ready to be an every down player in the Big Ten but his speed would give Iowa another dimension.  Outsey is almost the forgotten man but he is a linebacker in the same mold as Spearman was in the fact that he can rush the passer and play the OLB position.  I’m taking a shot in the dark and going strictly off what I have seen from their high school film but I won’t be surprised if one or both of these guys step up into a role in the Raider.

Defensive Backs

King took over the starting CB spot opposite senior BJ Lowery after Jordan Lomax was hurt in the first game last year and never gave it back.  By the end of the season it was pretty clear that King was the best CB on the field and I don’t see him slowing down now.  Maurice Fleming and Sean Draper are going to have a fight to the death for the other spot.  The backup spots on the two-deep are written in pencil because you don’t go out and recruit four possible CBs if you feel really great about your depth.  Look out for the true freshmen, again.

Cornerbacks  

Starters:  Desmond King  Sophomore;  Maurice Fleming  Sophomore or Sean Draper  Junior

King didn’t get a lot of notice coming out of high school in Michigan despite the fact that he was the all-time leader in interceptions in Michigan high school history.  Iowa found a gem and luckily for the Hawkeyes he’s not draft eligible for two more years.  Fleming and Draper are staging what looks to be the only true starting position battle of camp and with the multiple WR offenses the Hawkeyes will face throughout the year both guys will play plenty.  Draper has more experience but it might actually be what is hurting him in the competition right now because he was less than impressive in limited time last year.  Fleming is a superior athlete with great fluidity that should make him a natural at CB.

Backups:  Greg Mabin  Sophomore;  Malik Rucker  RS Freshman

Mabin is a great athlete with size and speed but he just converted to the defensive backfield from WR last year and even then it wasn’t always clear if he fit at CB or safety.  He seems to have settled in at CB for now but he’s not a natural at it so he will have to fight off some true freshmen in camp and given the lack of depth at safety his position may not be settled anyway.  Rucker is a redshirt freshman that is facing the same competition from a good group of incoming freshmen and while Rucker came to Iowa as a defensive back he may quickly find himself looking up at some talented guys after camp.

The Future:  Omar Truitt  Freshman;  Joshua Jackson  Freshman;  Marcel Joly  Freshman;  Jalen Embry Freshman

Iowa took some very talented athletes that project to defensive back and for now I’m listing all four of these guys as CBs but at least two of them have potential at safety too.  Omar Truitt and Marcel Joly are the two that seem more natural at CB than at safety.  Either one could make a Desmond King like move this year although it would probably take more than one injury to open up some playing time.  Mabin and Rucker are beatable for the fourth CB spot and I like Truitt’s film a lot.  Joly is a fantastic athlete but Truitt has more natural cover instincts which is the thing that separated King from the pack last year.   Jackson and Embry are both great athletes (Jackson was a high jump champion in Texas) and both of them may play corner or they may find a faster way onto the field at safety.

Safety

Easily the thinnest position going into fall camp John Lowdermilk is the only sure thing.  Jordan Lomax is converting from CB to free safety and he should be fine there but with the loss of Nico Law (booted from the team for hitting a teammate) there is no experienced depth to speak of.  If a freshman is going to get significant playing time this year this is the position where it’s most likely to happen.

Strong Safety

Starter:  John Lowdermilk  Senior

Lowdermilk beat out Nico Law last year for this job and while he isn’t an all-world talent he does the job pretty well.  He knows where to be and relies on his knowledge more than his athletic ability and Iowa has had many safeties like that in the past.  Lowdermilk is a hitter and is more comfortable coming up in run support than dropping back in coverage and it should help him that his new backfield mate is a converted corner.

Backup:  Kevin Ward  RS Freshman

If you just asked yourself “Who?” then you are right there with everyone else.  Ward is a redshirt freshman walk-on and I would say his hold on this position is tenuous at best.   I’m not trying to pick on a kid I’ve never seen play but I’ve seen the incoming freshmen film and he isn’t going to last long.

Free Safety

Starter:  Jordan Lomax  Junior

Lomax was the starting CB last year in the first game then he got hurt and got “Wally Pipped” by Desmond King (if you don’t know what that means Google it).  Lomax’s skillset should fit nicely here and the Hawkeyes need him here more than they do at CB.  Lomax’s coverage ability will be a great complement to Lowdermilk’s heavy hitting at strong safety.  A good back end safety is hard to find some times, just ask any Hawkeye fan from the last couple of years.

Backups:  Anthony Gair  Sophomore;  Solomon Warfield  RS Freshman

Gair was the backup last year to Tanner Miller and it doesn’t evoke confidence when the coaches convert a CB to the spot and he immediately takes over the position without much of a fight.  Warfield hasn’t had a chance to compete since he redshirted last season so he could knock Gair out of the spot but he shouldn’t feel too comfortable with all these freshmen defensive backs around.

The one to watch out for:  Miles Taylor  Freshman

I already mentioned that Joshua Jackson or Jalen Embry might make a move for playing time at safety but there is one incoming player that is a natural safety and I wouldn’t bet against him being in the two-deeps come August 30^th.  Taylor should have been a higher ranked recruit because he is damn good and he’s a natural.  He could back up Lowdermilk this season at strong safety or knock Gair and Warfield off the depth chart at free safety.  In the past Iowa has sometimes had a free and strong safety that were interchangeable and while Lowdermilk and Lomax aren’t like that Taylor could be the third safety this year and sub in for either one of them.  Jackson and Embry might be the future at safety for Iowa, Taylor absolutely is.

Two walk-ons to mention:  Brandon Snyder and Jake Gervase

Iowa has a history under Ferentz of uncovering really good high school athletes, getting them to walk-on and then they become really good safeties for the Hawks.  Brandon Snyder and Jake Gervase fit this mold and they could really blossom now that they can concentrate on one sport and one position.  I wouldn’t look for it to be this year as they both should probably redshirt for their own good but considering the depth at safety on this team nothing would surprise me.

Punter

You know I hate talking about kickers and I hate talking about Punters even more but it’s worth mentioning.  Connor Kornbrath is the incumbent punter but his first two years have been less than stellar.  I’m not a punting expert but even I can see the inconsistency in his punting, oh and you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out when the coaches give a scholarship to a junior college punter they aren’t brimming with confidence in their guy.  Dillon Kidd was here for spring practice and neither he nor Kornbrath staked their claim to the job as they were both equally inconsistent.  I would hope that one of them figures it out but if I’m going to hope for something regarding the Hawkeyes punters I’m just going to hope they never actually need one.

 

 

 

 

It’s the beginning of August and the Hawkeye football team is starting up fall camp coming off their 8-5 season which was a nice turnaround from the 4-8 season in 2012.  The offense is looking to replace TE CJ Fiedorowicz, RT Brett Van Sloten, LG Connor Boffeli and some WRs we are unlikely to miss.  For the most part the offense returns intact and other than figuring out some depth issues on the offensive line and the pecking order at WR there are not many questions on this side of the ball.  There really aren’t any position battles that will be decided in training camp as spring practice gave the coaches a pretty clear view of this side of the ball going forward.

Quarterback

A couple of transfers have left the Hawkeyes pretty thin at the position and while Jake Rudock got the lion’s share of the playing time last season luckily CJ Beathard got some meaningful snaps too.  The lack of depth will mean plenty of practice reps for incoming freshman Tyler Wiegers.

Starter:  Jake Rudock   Junior

While Rudock is certainly the starter going into camp it’s not as though he has a stranglehold on the job.  He performed about as well as anyone could expect from a guy with literally no game experience going into last season and with little help from his receiving corps.  Too many turnovers and too many check downs last season leaves the door open for backup QB CJ Beathard to make a push for Rudock’s job.  Rudock threw 13 interceptions last year which is far too many for a guy that didn’t take very many chances.  His completion percentage also should have been better given his propensity for throwing it short although some of that can be blamed on the less than stellar WR group.  Rudock is smart and he has the ability to run the offense but last season he looked unsure of himself at times and he lacked confidence in his receivers, two things he hopefully has rectified this offseason.

Backup:  CJ Beathard   Sophomore

Beathard is athletic and strong-armed and he certainly looks the part and doesn’t lack for confidence on the field.  However, the results in his extended playing time when Rudock was injured last year leave a lot to be desired.  Rudock left the door to his job open more than once last season and Beathard stumbled trying to walk through it each time.  With the exception of Beathard’s bootleg TD run last year to put the final nail in Nebraska’s coffin he didn’t exactly leave a lasting impression.  Ferentz likes to say the coaching staff has confidence in both guys this year but he certainly has to have more confidence in Rudock at this point which is why Beathard will remain the backup.

Rest of the Roster:  Tyler Wiegers   True Freshman

Senior-to-be Cody Sokol finished 3^rd in the three man race for the starting job last year and decided to transfer again for a shot at some playing time.  Would-be redshirt freshman Nic Shimonek saw two QB’s with multiple years of eligibility ahead of him, a 4-star incoming freshman (Wiegers) behind him and three possible QB commitments for the 2015 recruiting class and decided to head home to Texas (Texas Tech to be precise) leaving Wiegers as the only other scholarship QB behind the top two guys.  Wiegers is a big 4-star recruit that already looks the part of a traditional pocket passer at 6’4 215 lbs.  The Michigan kid was an early verbal commit to Rutgers but changed his mind and came to Iowa instead.  He fits Ferentz’s preferred pro-style offense and while no one wants to see the Hawkeyes on their 3^rd QB at any point this year Wiegers is going to get plenty of practice reps since walk-on Justin Joyce is the only other QB on the roster.  Obviously keeping Rudock and Beathard healthy and being able to redshirt Wiegers would be preferable but he is going to have to at least be ready to play if need be because he really is the only option the Hawkeyes will have.

Running Back

A team with four RBs that have actually played should feel pretty good but Hawkeye fans have memories of past years when four wasn’t enough.  The transfers of Barkley Hill and Michael Malloy probably won’t hurt much but this is one position where fans keep their eyes on the depth and Hawkeye coaches keep their fingers crossed.

Starter A:  Mark Weisman   Senior

Weisman is the hammer of the Hawkeye’s backfield and unfortunately the coaching staff is sometimes too reliant on their favorite tool.  He is an extremely effective back against smaller and slower defenses but teams that have the speed to get to him early can make him ineffective.  The coaches’ overuse of Weisman early last year also meant he was beat up too much and that also makes him less effective.  Lightening his workload is paramount to making the most use of him.  Weisman’s run-them-over style isn’t going to magically change his senior year so finding the best times to use that skill is up to the coaching staff.  I’m fairly certain, and if Vegas is taking bets I’d put my money on, the first offensive play of the Hawkeye’s season being Weisman running left behind Brandon Scherff and if that isn’t the plan it should be.  We know the Hawkeyes are going to do it, UNI knows the Hawkeyes are going to do it and it’s still going to be good for about 6 yards.

Starter B:  Jordan Canzeri   Junior

I usually go with the thunder and lightning analogy when talking about a big back and a small back sharing the workload in the running game but since I went with Weisman as the hammer I think that makes Canzeri the nail gun.  The Hawkeye running game always has the same agenda and that is to drive the defense back and while Weisman pounds away bit by bit Canzeri gets it done with a whole lot more speed.  I promise I’m done torturing the metaphor.  Canzeri is small and shifty and runs with great balance, he finds a hole and hits it quickly.  His speed is a great complement to Weisman and he proved last year against Purdue that he can carry the load when needed.  The coaching staff has some great depth at tailback this year and they need to figure out which backs’ skills match up best against an opponent.  Purdue’s defense last year lacked the speed to fill the hole before Canzeri was already through it and that’s what made him highly effective in that game and those are the matchups the Hawkeyes have to take advantage of.

Backup A:  Damon Bullock   Senior

Bullock is the third down back because he is the jack-of-all-trades guy.  He can run, he can catch out of the backfield and he’s the most trusted blocker in blitz pickup.  He was once the starting back but he has been passed by both Weisman and Canzeri in the pecking order for carries and sophomore LeShun Daniels is probably going to pass him this year.  That doesn’t diminish his importance given his steady play and the coaches’ obvious trust in him.  When Bullock is on the field he can be used in so many ways it gives the offense multiple options, which is the definition of a third down back.

Backup B:  LeShun Daniels   Sophomore

Arguably the most talented runner at the position Daniels doesn’t have the track record of Weisman, Canzeri and Bullock so he is waiting his turn.  His talent may end up being too much to ignore and he has a better combination of size and speed than any of the players in front of him.  Daniels played as a freshman last season but he only logged 36 carries so it wasn’t a huge sample.  The coaches know they have to lighten Weisman’s workload and Daniels has the power to punish defenses in the same way Weisman does so he should get more carries early in the year to take the load off of Weisman.  He hasn’t shown an ability to be a pass catcher out of the backfield yet but that is probably a product more of not being needed in those situations than a lack of skill on his part.

Rest of the roster:  Jonathan Parker  RS Freshman, Akrum Wadley  RS Freshman, CJ Hilliard  True Freshman

Most teams fifth and sixth string RBs don’t get talked about much especially when they are two redshirt freshmen no one has ever really seen but Parker and Wadley play for a team that was once cursed at their position.  Not having seen much of either one I can say that coaches seem to like them and like the rest of us they hope they don’t need them at any point this year.  Hilliard comes in a starts his career with the Hawks at RB but he’s going to redshirt and I’m guessing during Bowl prep the coaches will decide if he stays at RB or moves to safety.  Hilliard played safety in high school and if the Hawkeyes get a couple of good recruits committed and if academic casualty Merkel Smith (he was supposed to be Hilliard’s classmate) makes it back to Iowa after some time at a prep school Hilliard might find Iowa’s safety depth chart easier to crack.

Fullback

Juniors Adam Cox and Macon Plewa have the position well in hand and while they don’t get a lot of pub they both block quite effectively.  The Hawkeyes use a fullback more than most college programs nowadays.  There isn’t any depth to speak of here as Cox and Plewa are the only fullbacks currently on the roster but Iowa has a tendency to find a walk-on or covert a LB into a fullback when necessary so when they need one they will find one.

Wide Receiver

The long Hawkeye nightmare, okay my long Hawkeye nightmare, of having to watch Don Shumpert try to catch a football is finally over and it’s time for the Hawkeye receiving corps to step up and help out Jake Rudock.  Kevonte Martin-Manley brings leadership and steadiness to the position but it’s the younger guys that have to bring the explosive plays and the Hawkeyes need explosive plays.  The list of possible candidates is long so the competition in fall camp should be fierce.

Starters:  Kevonte Martin-Manley   Senior;  Tevaun Smith   Junior

Martin-Manley can lineup inside or out but he does his best work from the slot.  He is an All-Conference and possibly an All-American as a punt returner and he gives Rudock a very nice security blanket.  The problem is that unless someone steps up to take some of the coverage off of him teams will focus their pass coverage on him.  Smith is a steady starter but he needs to become a playmaker if he wants to hold onto his starting spot.  In his third year he should be ready to make the leap from potential playmaker to actual playmaker.  If he doesn’t there is a breakout star waiting in the wings to take his starting spot.

Potential Breakout Star:  Derrick Willies   RS Freshman

Willies was the talk of the spring practices as he showed enormous potential and at 6’4 210 lbs. he has the size and the speed the Hawkeye passing attack has been missing.  Willies made multiple big plays during the open practices this spring and it was enough to separate himself from the pack and give him a shot at a starting spot.  He is likely to be the one lining up with Smith and Martin-Manley on any three WR sets with Martin-Manley kicking inside to the slot.  Once Willies shows some consistency he will gain the trust of the coaching staff and of Jake Rudock.

Backups:  Damond Powell  Senior;  Jacob Hillyer  Junior;  Riley McCarron  Sophomore;  Matt Vandeberg  Sophomore

Powell would be a breakout candidate but he recently had hernia surgery that will keep him out of fall camp and on the sidelines at the beginning of the season.  He has the speed the team needs and with a year in the system he should finally have a grasp on the playbook.  His potential showed in flashes last year but there was no consistency to his play or his playing time.  Hillyer stepped up at the end of last season and finally started to show that he could actually be a contributor.  He has great size and while he lacks great speed he knows how to use his body and his playing time at the end of last season should help him get back on the field.  McCarron was talked about a lot last offseason after a great spring but he seems to have been passed up on the depth chart.  He has experience and he’ll contribute on special teams but his reps at WR may fall off quite a bit.  Vandeberg was the surprise freshman that didn’t redshirt last season.  He impressed the coaches enough to get a chance and he has the ability to leap over both McCarron and Hillyer in the pecking order.

The Future:  Derrick Mitchell  RS Freshman;  Andre Harris  RS Freshman;  Jay Scheel  True Freshman

First thing to know is that Jay Scheel is rehabbing an injury and he is coming in as a WR even though he played QB in high school.  Between his rehab, learning a new position and that position having at least 9 players ahead of him I don’t even want to imagine the scenario that would have to happen for Scheel to see the field this year.  Unless that scenario is Scheel looking like a young Randy Moss and Kirk Ferentz having no choice but to play him…sorry that’s just not happening…cross your fingers for next year.  Mitchell and Harris are the other two redshirt freshmen WR like Derrick Willies but they didn’t make quite the same impact in the spring.  Talented players that will most likely have to wait their turn but one of them playing their way into the 5^th WR role (behind Martin-Manley, Smith, Willies and Vandeberg) isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility.  A healthy Powell and Hillyer will certainly put a fight but both Mitchell and Harris are bigger than Powell and faster than Hillyer.

Tight End

If you start at TE for the Iowa Hawkeyes you have a pretty good chance to make the NFL and if you don’t believe me just ask CJ Fiedorowicz…or Brandon Myers…or Allen Reisner…or Tony Moeaki…or Scott Chandler…or call Dallas Clark he’s got some time on his hands these days.  The TE run under Kirk Ferentz has been pretty amazing and there are a few guys ready to keep it going.

Starter:  Ray Hamilton  Senior

My choice for breakout player of the year is Ray Hamilton.  I think Willies will be a big contributor at WR but Hamilton has been biding his time behind Fiedorowicz for years and he’s just been solid and steady.  He’s sort of been tagged as the “blocking TE” because Fiedorowicz was always the red zone target and big athletic pass catcher but Hamilton has that skill he just wasn’t asked to use it.  Even Jake Duzey (he’s next) got the big highlight reel play last year against Ohio St. with his huge TD catch and run.  Hamilton is going to be a big part of Iowa’s offense and I think Rudock will find him to be a very reliable target.  And yes in my opinion Hamilton will get drafted in 2015 and play in the NFL next year.

Backups:  Jake Duzey  Junior;  Henry Krieger-Coble  Junior;  George Kittle  Sophomore

I’m listing all of these guys because they will all play and they all have a role.  Duzey is a WR that is too big to play WR so he lines up as a TE.  He has excellent hands, great route-running ability and if you want to know how fast he is the Buckeyes still haven’t caught him.  Krieger-Coble gets to step into Hamilton’s “blocking” TE role while Hamilton steps up.  Duzey isn’t really known for it and Krieger-Coble has good size.  It’s an unheralded role for sure but an important one nonetheless.  Kittle is another undersized TE (or an oversized WR if you prefer) and he fills a role too.  He isn’t quite as dynamic as Duzey but he’s still a weapon when he gets on the field.   *Redshirt Freshman Jon Wisnieski would have been worth mentioning here but he redshirted last year and then suffered a knee injury during the spring.  It seems unlikely he’ll contribute this season.

Offensive Line

Contrary to popular belief Brandon Scherff is not going to play offensive line all by himself this season for the Hawkeyes.  Scherff is unquestionably the marquee name for the Iowa Hawkeye team and he has earned it but they do return other starters on the line.  C Austin Blythe is seriously underrated in the pivot and RG Jordan Walsh played pretty well last year.  RT Andrew Donnal has filled in all over the line the past few years and finally as a senior he’ll get his chance to start at one position.   Redshirt freshman Sean Welsh has staked his claim to the LG spot between Scherff and Blythe and the rest of the roster is long on potential and short on experience.

Left Tackle

Starter:  Brandon Scherff  Senior

Iowa’s next great offensive lineman is the stuff of legends.  Scherff’s weight room accomplishments have gone viral, he’s been mentioned as a possible #1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft (it’s not a crazy idea) and he is simply the best offensive linemen in the Big Ten and probably the nation.  Did I hype him up too much?  Was that over the top?  Scherff is a monster and last year he was the best run blocking lineman in the country and he returned for his senior year to become a better pass blocker and apparently to lift really heavy things over and over again.  NFL coaches, scouts and GM’s are drooling over him and they should be.  He is a better pro prospect than Bryan Bulaga, Reilly Reiff or Robert Gallery and I say that with all due respect to those three fantastic former Hawkeyes.  The Hawkeye offensive line will follow Scherff’s lead as will this team and as most people know when Kirk Ferentz has a good offensive line he usually has a good offensive team.

Backup:  Ike Boettger  RS Freshman

One of the strangest quirks in Iowa football recruiting is that between Scherff and Donnal’s recruiting class and Boettger’s Iowa only secured the commitment of one true offensive tackle and that was Ryan Ward, with a lack of depth at the position Ferentz turned to an old trick. He took a tall skinny TE recruit, told him to eat and sent him to Chris Doyle.  It’s worked wonders in the past and depending on which report you believe Boettger has gained between 50-60 pounds in the last year but I can say with absolute certainty that Hawkeye fans would rather wait until next year to find out if the trick worked this time.

Left Guard

Starter:  Sean Welsh  RS Freshman

It’s hard to know much about a redshirt freshman offensive guard but I can tell you that he didn’t win this spot by default.  There are older players like Eric Simmons and Ryan Ward that could have slid into this spot and there are other young guys like Colin Goebel, Mitch Keppy and Reid Sealby that had the same chance Welsh did but he won the job coming out of the spring and it looks like he’ll stick.

Backup:  Boone Myers  RS Freshman

Myers is actually a walk-on and he has been listed at both OT and OG at different times and the coaches seem to really like him.  He may kick out to OT if need be but for now he backs up Welsh.

Center

Starter: Austin Blythe  Junior

The Hawkeyes have a recent history of sending OT’s to the NFL but it’s been a while since an Iowa center was a big time NFL prospect.  Brandon Scherff has all the attention for now but while scouts are watching Scherff they are going to notice Blythe.  At 6’3 300 lbs. he’s a prototypical NFL center size and he’s been expertly coached by Kirk and Brian Ferentz.  Blythe is strong and agile and he deserves credit for how good he really is in the middle of the offensive line.  Scherff sets the tone for the offensive line but Blythe is the guy getting them all lined up where they need to be and he does an excellent job at it.

Backups:  Tommy Gaul  Senior;  Eric Simmons  Junior

Gaul and Simmons are both listed behind Blythe and neither is listed as a possibility at OG and that tells me that Ferentz is hopeful that he never has to decide which one of these two to play.  History tells a story with Ferentz and he’s always been a coach that plays his best 5 offensive linemen and when one goes down he puts in his sixth man and shuffles them around if necessary.  Tackles play guard, centers play guard and guards play center if necessary, if something happens to Blythe I think there will be some shuffling around to find the right combo.

Right Guard

Starter:  Jordan Walsh  Junior

Walsh was a big time 4-star recruit when he signed with Iowa and he played off and on for a while until he finally solidified a spot last year at RG.  He played pretty well and this should be the time where he really starts to shine.  He has plenty of playing experience over the past two seasons and he works well inside next to Blythe.  If Walsh steps up his play it will go a long way to making Iowa’s offensive line special.

Backup:  Mitch Keppy  Sophomore

There isn’t a lot to say about Keppy.  He’s a good sized kid with no actual playing experience and it might take a number of injuries to see him get a lot of playing time.  He’s only a sophomore so he’s got time to work his way in but there are some incoming guys that are going to push him.

Right Tackle

Starter:  Andrew Donnal  Senior

Patience is a virtue and after swinging around from guard to tackle and back to guard and back to tackle Andrew Donnal finally gets his shot to start after the graduation of Brett Van Sloten.  Donnal played left guard pretty well last year and he has filled in at every position except center during his career but he’s a tackle by trade and he should excel at the position.  He will be better simply because he knows where he will line up from week to week.

Backups:  Cole Croston  Sophomore;  Ryan Ward  Sophomore

Croston is walk-on and Ward was the much heralded 4-star and yet they are both listed as the backup to Donnal.  Neither of them has seen meaningful playing time so they are an interesting battle to watch.  One of these two is going to be expected to step into the RT job next year.

The True Freshman: Lucas LeGrand, Keegan Render and Ross Reynolds

These three will all redshirt and all three are seen as interior offensive linemen.

Kicker

Marshall Koehn is listed as the starter but that is only because he’s the only one that has been on campus until now.  Texas kicker Mick Ellis was brought in on scholarship and Mason City alum Miguel Recinos walked-on and Kirk Ferentz didn’t exactly sing Koehn’s praises when asked about the position.  Ferentz noted the need for consistency and said he “had no idea” who his kicker would be at this point.  The competition is on and I wouldn’t even begin to guess on this one.  Okay that’s a lie I’m going with Ellis.