This division is Jacksonville’s for the taking.  Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the division and leads the best unit in the division, the Jaguars offense.  However, if the Jags defense lets them down, Mike Vrabel and the Titans will almost assuredly be better than we all think they will be because Vrabel is just that good of a coach.  I’m not sure Houston or Indianapolis will be good but there’s a chance neither of them is as bad as we might think.  The Texans got their two cornerstone guys in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson while the Colts have their lottery ticket in Anthony Richardson.  Jim Irsay’s inexplicable handling of the Jonathan Taylor situation is going to make things more difficult in Indy for Richardson. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

            This team took a major step last season largely because of their massive upgrade at head coach with Doug Pederson replacing Urban Meyer.  Having an actual NFL head coach running an actual NFL style offense with a legitimate offensive coordinator (Press Taylor) really allowed Trevor Lawrence to show what he can be.  He just scratched the surface last season and another year in the system with more help on offense could really unleash his potential. 

            Lawrence made the most of what he had last year with pass catchers like Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram having career years.  All of those guys are talented players who were finally being used to their full potential under Pederson but the offense was missing that one big play threat, enter Calvin Ridley.  Technically Ridley joined the Jags last year during the season in a trade but he suspended for the year due to gambling.  Now, he’s returned to football after almost two years off (he missed the season before for Covid related reasons).  When Ridley last took the field in Atlanta for a full year, he was an excellent WR and was ready to be a true #1 WR.  He and Trevor Lawrence have looked good together in preseason and this should scare opponents of the Jaguars. 

            The running game is in the hands of Travis Etienne who had a good year last year after missing his rookie year with an injury.  He’s got electric speed and while he wasn’t great catching the ball last year, he was fine.  His one area of concern was he didn’t score many TDs and the team addressed this issue by drafting Tank Bigsby.  I wasn’t a huge Bigsby fan coming out of the draft but he can be solid in this backup role.  The offensive line must play better and they start the year with LT Cam Robinson suspended for six games.  Walker Little steps in there and I think he’ll do well.  I’ve never been a Robinson fan but he’s been solid, I like Little’s upside.  LG Ben Bartch is nothing special and RG Brandon Scherff is 31 and his age is starting to show.  He’s not the dominant player he once was and they need him to be solid.  C Luke Fortner was a rookie last year and played pretty well.  Rookie RT Anton Harrison will step in with Robinson out and he’s looked good in the preseason. If the line gives Lawrence time and Etienne room to run, this offense can be great. 

            The defense needs to play better.  They were not great last year and they didn’t really get reinforcements this off season.  The team is counting on some young guys to step up their play and they need a couple of guys to have break out years.  Their three-man front has Folorunso Fatukasi and Roy Robertson-Harris with a bit of a question mark in the middle because Devon Hamilton starts the year on IR.  Angelo Blackson probably gets the call at NT. 

            The LB group is where they need real improvement if they want this defense to make a difference.  OLB Josh Allen was the seventh overall pick in 2019 and he’s never been a true difference maker as a pass rusher.  It’s time for him to be that or it’s time to move on.  He needs some help from Travon Walker, the #1 overall pick from last year who had an uninspiring first year.  Walker was changing positions so there’s still reason for optimism that he can be better, but they need it now.  They still have former first round pick K’Lavon Chaisson for some reason, he’s always been a disappointment.  ILB Devin Lloyd was a first rounder last year who started the year solid and then had some rookie struggles.  Foyesade Oluokun was a former free agent splash who is a very productive LB.

            The secondary returns all four starters and I’m not sure that’s a good thing.  They are led by CB Tyson Campbell who could be a #1 CB but he’s just not quite there.  That’s what a lot of this defense feels like, just not quite there.  Darious Williams was a solid second CB and he’s back too.  Tre Herndon looks like the nickel guy.  Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins are decent as the safety tandem, that’s about the best I can give them.  The offense is going to have to put up points to overcome this defense unless Allen, Walker, Lloyd, Campbell, and maybe Cisco really break out as top players this year. 

Tennessee Titans

            The Titans drafted Malik Willis in the third-round last year and then drafted Will Levis in the second round of this last draft and yet Ryan Tannehill is still the starter in Tennessee.  Mike Vrabel just can’t quit him.  Vrabel isn’t the type of guy to want to rebuild, or reset, or re-anything, he wants to win, even if it only means you’re winning nine games tops.  Tannehill can win nine games with Derrick Henry running the ball and a good defense.

            Tannehill has one of the least inspiring pass catching groups on paper but there is potential.  DeAndre Hopkins was a late add this off season when he took the money the Titans were offering over his other options.  Hopkins hasn’t been the picture of health the last few years in Arizona and he’s 31 so it doesn’t get easier.  He can still be useful but he’s not likely to be a dominant player any more.  Treylon Burks looked like a rookie a lot last year but he’s still a talented guy.  In a more dynamic offense, he might be a more dynamic player but he is what he is in Tennessee.  TE Chig Okonkwo is a very athletic player who has a chance to be a breakout player this year.  This isn’t going to be a high-flying offense but they need to at least be a little threatening to keep teams from loading the box. 

            The offense still revolves around Derrick Henry.  With the exception of the year he missed half the season with an injury, Henry has been a monster in this offense.  Even with almost 350 carries last year he ended up nearly doubling his career high in catches too and being an even bigger part of the offense.  He’s 29 and could fall off the cliff at any time but you could lose a lot of money betting on that.  They did draft Tyjae Spears who might finally be a talented enough runner to take a little bit off Henry’s plate.  The offensive line was abysmal last season and I’m not sure their changes are going to help.  LT Andre Dilliard takes over, he couldn’t win the job in Philly for a reason.  Daniel Brunskill gets the RG job, he’s not great.  Aaron Brewer is a holdover at center, he’s average at best.  RT Nicholas Petit-Frere is suspended to start the year leaving journeyman Chris Hubbard starting.  Rookie Peter Skoronski looks like the only sure thing at LG, he’s a rookie and he’s the best lineman they have. 

            Mike Vrabel’s defense should be good.  They signed a few free agents to help shore up the defense in a couple of weak areas.  One place they aren’t weak is up front.  Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL and Denico Autry is one of the more underrated ones.  They flank Teair Tart, Tart isn’t one of the bigger NTs in the league but he’s still pretty good.  Simmons is the disruptor up front and makes everyone’s job easier. 

            Harold Landry III had a breakout year last year with 12 sacks and that’s the type of production they need from him.  He didn’t have much help in the sack department from the rest of the OLB so the team signed Arden Key hoping he could give a little juice.  They also grabbed Trevis Gibson from Chicago after cut down day this year.  Neither Key or Gibson have had great sack numbers but they are guys who can get some pressure.  ILB is being turned over to Azeez Al-Shaair, a free agent from San Francisco, and Jack Gibbens, a rookie free agent from last year.  Al-Shaair was overshadowed in San Fran with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw being awesome all the time.  He’s a good LB and they need him to be with a guy as green as Gibbens next to him. 

            The secondary features some good CBs who have never quite been great CBs.  Kristian Fulton is really good but not quite elite and Roger McCreary was pretty good as a rookie last year.  They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting from Tampa Bay to give them more depth.  It has hurt them that former first round pick Caleb Farley has never been healthy enough to fulfill his full potential.  He’s dealing with a family tragedy from this off season so he’s not a factor at the moment.  Kevin Byard is still one of the better free safeties in the league even if he isn’t as great as he once was and doesn’t get the recognition he deserves.  SS Amani Hooker is a valuable versatile defender who is really coming into his own as a pro. 

Indianapolis Colts

            The Colts aren’t going to be very good this year but they should be fun to watch as Anthony Richardson just becomes their offense.  The Jonathan Taylor saga means even more will fall on Richardson’s plate.  The passing game is going to be pretty rudimentary while Richardson gets used to playing QB against NFL teams but Shane Steichen will rely on Richardson’s legs to keep the offense moving. 

            The pass catching unit has some solid players but no major play makers.  Michael Pittman Jr. is a good player and would probably be pretty good with an elite passing QB but Richardson isn’t that right now.  Alec Pierce is a good downfield target in theory but we really haven’t seen that in reality so far.  Isaiah McKenzie is a decent pro but he underwhelmed last year with Josh Allen as his QB.  Josh Downs is a rookie who could be quite good in the slot.  Mo Alie-Cox is a potential good TE but good is probably his ceiling.

            The running game goes into the tank with Jonanthan Taylor starting the season on the PUP list.  Zack Moss is coming off a broken arm in training camp and he’s the listed starter with Deon Jackson as the backup, that’s not good.  The offensive line was awful last year and having an athlete like Richardson behind them instead of a statue like Matt Ryan will help but Richardson is also inexperienced so that won’t help.  They are counting on LT Bernhard Raimann to be a full-time starter in his second year, he needs to make a leap if that’s going to work.  Quentin Nelson is arguably the best guard in football when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last year, they need him to be this year.  C Ryan Kelly is still fine but he just turned 30 so that’s something to watch.  Will Fries was less than good at RG, that might be why RT Braden Smith had a subpar year.  He should rebound but there is no guarantee.

            The Colts lack an elite pass rusher on the edge, they have Kwity Paye, who is a good DE but not a high-end pass rusher.  They have Dayo Odeyingbo who had a solid year last year and is another year removed from an injury, they hope he develops more.  They signed veteran Samson Ebukam to give them some depth.  Their real pressure player is DT DeForest Bruckner who they got a couple of years ago from San Franscisco.  He’s a beast on the inside and really knows how to push the pocket.  Grover Stewart plays next to him inside, he’s a solid pro. 

            The LBs were in trouble last year because Shaq Leonard was hurt and you simply can’t replace Shaq Leonard.  Zaire Franklin is a good player but he’s a better player when Leonard is playing next to him.  EJ Speed is a bit bigger than Leonard and Franklin and gives them a different look.  This defense has been built around Leonard and his freakish playing speed, when he’s out, they just aren’t as good. 

            The secondary is going young at CB.  They have Kenny Moore as their nickel guy and he’s the only one with any real experience.  JuJu Brents is set to start as a rookie with fellow rookie Jaylon Jones backing him up.  The other spot has two second-year guys Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr.  It could be a long year for this group as they get thrown into the fire.  Safety is handled by Julian Blackmon at strong safety and Rodney Thomas II at free.  Blackmon is developing nicely but these guys are in for a tough year with the youngsters outside. 

Houston Texans

            There was a part of me that thought the Texans offense might not be as bad as everyone though it would be, then the offensive line fell apart at the end of training camp and, well, it’s going to be ugly.  QB CJ Stroud is a good player who can run this offense at a high level if the rest of the unit was better but for now, he’s just going to have to try to survive. 

            This offense comes from the Shanahan tree as DeMeco Ryans brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco.  Hopefully they can institute that type of running game to try to help ease the burden on the offensive line and on Stroud.  Dameon Pierce is an excellent RB and he can carry a heavy load.  They also have Devin Singletary for depth, that could prove crucial.  The offensive line was looking good and they still are at a few spots.  LT Laramy Tunsil is one of the better LTs in football.  RT Tytus Howard isn’t elite but he gets the job done.  The team traded for Shaq Mason to solve their RG issues and he should be solid.  The problem is that they were hoping second-year LG Kenyon Green would take a step in his development but he’s now out for the year with shoulder surgery.  They drafted Juice Scruggs in round two to solve their center issues and he’s out to start the year leaving sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson to step in.  Having a sixth rounder replace your second rounder is bad enough but they ended up taking Kendrick Green off the Steelers scrapheap to replace Kenyon Green, that’s a massive downgrade. 

            They need the running game to carry the load because this is one of the least impressive pass catching units you’ll find in the league.  Nico Collins is probably their #1 WR by default.  Collins isn’t a bad player he’s just not the guy you want being your WR1.  Robert Woods was signed to bring a veteran presence, that’s about all he brings.  Noah Brown was also signed for some reason.  They have to hope their younger guys develop quickly.  Tank Dell is a rookie, John Metchie missed his rookie year with cancer so he’s basically a rookie and they can hope Xavier Hutchinson outplays his sixth-round draft slot.  TE Dalton Schultz isn’t a game breaker but he does give Stroud a reliable target. 

            I look at the defensive depth chart and it doesn’t look as bad as I thought it would.  The team traded back up in round one of the draft to get Will Anderson.  They have taken a lot of criticism for that move but Anderson is a cornerstone player, he sets the tone for the defense, and he gives DeMeco Ryans someone to build around.  Anderson may never be a 15-18 sack guy but he’s a good edge player and he and Jonathan Greenard should generate pressure.  They also have the ageless wonder Jerry Hughes as a rotation guy.  Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins are solid NFL DTs, there are plenty of teams with guys worse than them starting. 

            The LB group is in transition.  Denzel Perryman was brought in to be a stabilizing force in the middle.  He’s bounced around in his career but he’s always a solid player.  Christian Harris is a young guy with some athleticism who needs more reps to get better, they hope.  For now, veteran Blake Cashman has the other spot. Cashman is fine but he isn’t great. 

            The secondary has two young guys with really high ceilings.  CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the most talented players at the position.  He needs to stay healthy so he can get the reps he needs to reach his potential.  FS Jalen Pitre is the other young guy with massive potential.  He could be one of the better safeties in the game especially playing in DeMeco Ryans defense.  Steven Nelson starts at the other CB, he’s a solid veteran.  They signed Jimmy Ward from San Francisco to be the quarterback of this defense.  He was a guy they used all over for the 49ers and now he’s here to help the young guys learn Ryans’ defense.  He will have a big influence on Pitre and probably Stingley too.       

            This is a two-team race with the 49ers and Seahawks both talented but flawed in their own ways and the Rams and Cardinals just waiting on the 2024 NFL Draft order to be decided.  He cult of Brock Purdy is strong in San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan is determined to prove he can win with any QB.  Trey Lance is already out so it’s Purdy at QB and Sam Darnold in the wings if he faulters.  Geno Smith leads the Seahawks who look a lot like last year’s Seahawks.  They are counting on some rookies to improve their fortunes and a new defensive line; they needed that change.  The Rams are a bunch of older beat-up guys on offense and a ton of people you’ve never heard of on defense.  The Cardinals are just hoping the Texans are as bad as they are so they can get two top five picks in the draft, hello Caleb Williams. 

San Francisco 49ers

            The 49ers are considered one of the favorites in the NFC but they do have some serious questions and they are going to be in a dogfight with Seattle for the NFC West.  The year started with the 49ers saying Brock Purdy was fine and would be the starting QB but no one wanted to believe them.  Well, Brock Purdy’s elbow seems to be fine and the team traded Trey Lance so it’s clearly Brock Purdy’s team. 

            Purdy will work with one of the best collections of skill position talent in the NFL.  The offense is led by RB Christian McCaffrey who is arguably the best RB in the league and plays for the best offensive play caller in the NFL, head coach Kyle Shanahan.  McCaffrey is an elite talent and the only question is how much work do you give him in order to keep him healthy all year.  They have Elijah Mitchell at RB so they don’t have to overwork McCaffrey.  WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are dynamic after-the-catch play makers who can line up anywhere.  That works well with McCaffrey who can line up like a WR while one of them shifts to the backfield, it makes matchups a nightmare for opposing defenses.  TE George Kittle is one of the best TEs in the league and he does a bit of everything.  He can be a tough matchup over the middle, he can block in the running game, and he can beat guys deep down the seam.  Purdy learned to count on him in important situations and he always delivered.  This is also the one team where I have to mention the fullback, Kyle Juszczyk is also a diverse weapon they can deploy all over the formation.  It’s a tough offense to get a handle on and Shanahan is a master at creating advantageous matchups. 

            The offensive line is where things could get dicey for the 49ers even though Shanahan can usually scheme his way out of it.  This offensive line group might be more of a challenge than usual for Shanahan.  LT Trent Williams is not a question, he’s arguably the best LT in football and maybe the best offensive lineman in football, he’s awesome.  LG Aaron Banks is fine, he played last year and wasn’t a problem.  C Jake Brendel became the starter last season and he acquitted himself quite well.  The issues could be on the right side of the line.  Spencer Burford won the starting RG job as a rookie last year and then struggled a bit.  The team rotated in Daniel Brunskill last year but he’s gone now and they only have Jon Feliciano to backup Burford.  If he struggles, it’s going to hurt.  The bigger problem is RT, Mike McGlinchy was too expensive to re-sign and they are giving Colton McKivitz first crack at the job.  He played well at LT in the last game of last season but he’s an unknown quantity.  If the whole right side struggles it’s going to hurt this offense.  Brock Purdy will have to get the ball out quick to mitigate some of the offensive line inconsistency. 

            The defense has been fantastic for years, first under Robert Saleh and then under DeMeco Ryans, but they didn’t have a natural successor to Ryans on staff so Shanahan hired Steve Wilks.  Wilks has been a very good defensive coordinator in his career but this is a different thing here.  Also, he may not have Nick Bosa to start the year as Bosa is in a contract holdout right now and there’s no telling when it ends. 

            The defensive front takes on a different look without Bosa coming off the edge.  Bosa is an elite pass rusher and without him it’s second-year man Drake Jackson and Raiders castoff Clelin Ferrell for now.  Jackson is talented but he’s more potential than production.  Ferrell flamed out with the Raiders and came to San Francisco to see if defensive line coach Kris Kocurek could resurrect his career.  They need Bosa.  DT Arik Armstead is still excellent and they signed Javon Hargrave to a massive deal for the other DT spot, that was because Javon Kinlaw has not lived up to his draft position. 

            The LB corps is led by the best MLB in football, Fred Warner.  Warner is an absolute freak when it comes to being not only the best tackler in the game but he’s equally adept in coverage, that’s rare.  Dre Greenlaw gets overshadowed by Warner but he’s excellent and as long as he stays healthy, the 49ers have arguably the best LB duo in the game.  Oren Burks is penciled in as the third guy; he’s not going to be on the Warner/Greenlaw level but he just has to be serviceable. 

            CB Charvarius Ward has proven to be an excellent free agent signing as he’s a legitimate top CB and he’s in his prime right now.  The team found a steal in former fifth round pick Deommodore Lenoir who became a starter last year and looks pretty solid opposite Ward.  Another fifth-round pick from the same 2021 draft was SS Talanoa Hufanga, he had a breakout year last year and he’s a force.  The team is looking to replace Jimmy Ward with Tayshaun Gipson Sr. and while that’s definitely a downgrade, this defense should be able to sustain it. 

Seattle Seahawks

            If Nick Bosa misses time or the right side of the 49ers offensive line can’t hold up, the door is open for the Seahawks to win the NFC West.  The team pivoted from the Russell Wilson era to Geno Smith and they flourished.  They still have some issues on offense and some questions on the defense but they are going to be good this year.  Geno Smith finally got another chance to be a starter and he didn’t squander it.  The team gave him a three-year contract and he’s back to keep the offense running. 

            This offense has some elite weapons.  WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are a fantastic duo and the team added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft.  JSN was the first WR taken and he’s an incredible slot receiver which is perfect for the Seahawks.  Lockett and Metcalf are great on the outside and the team needed a middle of the field savant like JSN.  Unfortunately, he broke a bone in his wrist and while they are saying he could be back within the first few weeks of the season, it’s not an injury that sounds good for a guy who has to catch the ball.  They have no depth, especially with Dee Eskridge suspended the first six weeks of the year.  The Seahawks should be scouring the waiver wire after cutdown day to find some receiver depth.  TE Noah Fant is a very solid pass catcher and the team has some depth with Will Dissly and Cody Parkinson. 

            The offensive line should be better assuming LT Charles Cross and RT Abraham Lucas progress in their second seasons after starting as rookies.  LG Damien Lewis is just figuring it out and can be pretty good.  The two trouble spots are center and RG.  Evan Brown has bounced around in his career and is penciled in at center but he’s going to have to hold off rookie Olu Oluwatimi.  Phil Haynes is the RG until they find someone better.  They don’t have any depth so an injury to the line could derail things quickly. 

            The defensive line needed to change and the team went for a complete overhaul.  They spent big money on Dre’Mont Jones to star up front.  They also signed veterans Jarran Reed and Mario Edwards Jr. and this should be the new starting defensive line.  They also drafted Mike Morris and Cameron Young and they will probably be two of the main backups.  The overhaul was thorough and complete. 

            The linebacking group found some solid pass rushers last season in Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor Jr.  Nwosu became a full-time guy in his first season in Seattle and had 9.5 sacks.  Taylor is a rotational player who was also effective.  Boye Mafe will see more time this year in year two and the team hopes rookie Derick Hall contributes as a pass rusher.  The team brought back Bobby Wagner at ILB because they struggled there.  Jordyn Brooks is quite good but he needed help inside.  They also brought in Devin Bush as depth. 

            The secondary is where this defense could really excel.  CB Riq Woolen (formerly Tariq) had a fantastic rookie year and he gives them a big outside corner at 6’4.  They used the fifth pick in the draft to take Devon Witherspoon to be the other CB outside.  Jamal Adams cost the Seahawks a lot of draft capital a few years ago but he’s an elite SS when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last year, but they have to hope he is this year. Quandre Diggs is an underrated FS and pairs well with this group.  The team also signed Julian Love from the Giants, he’s a versatile defensive back who could be the slot guy, he could also fill in at safety for Adams or Diggs if needed.  This is a talented and deep secondary.

Los Angeles Rams

            The division is a two-team race because the Rams and Cardinals are not going to be very good.  The difference between the bottom two is that the Rams aren’t necessarily trying to be bad and their offense has an outside shot at being competent, assuming everyone gets healthy.  It starts with Matthew Stafford, he missed most of last season with multiple injuries but he should be back to full health. 

            The team needs Cooper Kupp to be at his very best if they have any chance of being good.  Kupp was great last year until he got hurt, getting hurt was a team activity last year.  They don’t have great players beyond Kupp at WR but Van Jefferson could be good if he ever plays more than a couple of games at a time.  Ben Skowronek is the other guy, he’s not that good but the Rams seem to like him.  TE Tyler Higbee is the second most important pass catcher here and Stafford will look to use him plenty. 

            The running game goes where Cam Akers takes it.  They only have Kyren Williams and rookie Zach Evans behind him, it’s not a great situation.  Also, the offensive line needs to get healthy and it is starting to sort itself out.  After committing money to Joe Noteboom to be their LT after Andrew Whitworth retired it looks like he’s lost the job for good.  Alaric Jackson has stepped in at LT and Noteboom still isn’t healthy.  Jackson and rookie Steve Avila should form a solid left side of the line and stabilize Stafford’s blindside.  C Brian Allen is returning but late reports say Coleman Shelton has beaten him out for the job.  RG is where they are potentially moving Noteboom if he gets healthy but Tremayne Anchrum Jr has been holding down the spot since spring and they like him.  RT Rob Havenstein is a decent veteran and they count on him to remain that. 

            If you don’t recognize any names beyond Aaron Donald on this defense, you’re not alone.  I consider myself well versed in NFL players and NFL rosters and I look at this defensive depth chart and think, who?  Or, that guys starting?  The defense is a disaster and there’s not a lot of hope right now.  Donald will start on the line and probably Bobby Brown III at NT because they don’t have much there.  The other starter is either rookie Kobie Turner or maybe Marquise Copeland, neither one inspires confidence.

            Linebacker is in even worse shape considering they don’t have an Aaron Donald here.  Ernest Jones Jr is probably their best LB, that is what you call faint praise.  Rookie Byron Young probably starts as one pass rusher.  Michael Hoecht is listed as the other starting OLB, I have no idea who he is.  That is doubly true for the other ILB next to Jones, Christian Rozeboom, no idea at all. 

            The secondary has plenty of names I recognize but that’s not all a good thing.  Ahkello Witherspoon and Derion Kendrick are the starters at CB.  Witherspoon has bounced around for a reason and Kendrick flashes ability but he’s inconsistent, not a great trait for a CB.  John Johnson III returns to the Rams after leaving for a big contract in Cleveland.  He hasn’t been the same since he left and it’s rare that a guy returns to a place and goes back to being as good as he was there before.  Jordan Fuller is the other starting safety and he’s just a guy.  This team has a lot of rookies who could earn playing time, the problem is it’s not because they are all good, it’s because it’s the team’s only option. 

Arizona Cardinals

            The Cardinals are the odds-on favorite to be the worst team in the league and heading for a chance to pick Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year in the draft.  The team is in complete overhaul mode with a new GM, new head coach, and probably a new QB next year.  Kyler Murray got a huge extension and then got hurt last season and will miss at least a few weeks of the year, probably more than a few.  This team will either be playing Clayton Tune or the newly acquired Josh Dobbs at QB.  They are gutting the team and a trade of Murray seems inevitable next off season.  Cutting presumed starting QB Colt McCoy was not really a tanking strategy, trust me, he wasn’t a great option.  If they sign Carson Wentz, that would be a tanking maneuver.    

            The offense probably relies heavily on RB James Connor considering their QB options.  Connor is a solid player and he can handle a heavy workload.  New head coach Jonathan Gannon comes from a defensive background and he’s smart enough to realize his defense is going to be bad and he needs his offense to play ball control.  The offensive line has DJ Humphries at LT for now.  I say for now because this team may go into fire sale mode and a competent LT is worth something (how have the Jets not made a deal yet?).  The team drafted Paris Johnson Jr in round one and while he’s won the RT job, he could easily slide over to LT if Humphries gets dealt.  The interior of the line might get the QB killed (this is where Dobbs athleticism might be helpful).  LG Elijah Wilkinson, RG Will Hernandez, and C Hjalte Froholdt are not good, don’t even hope.  The line needs an overhaul apart from Johnson and it should start with the draft picks they get in a Humphries deal. 

            The passing game has three really small WRs who all bring different things, one big WR who is an injury risk, and very suspect QB (even when Murray returns).  Marquise Brown is a 5’9 deep threat who is usually a boom-or-bust proposition from week to week.  Rondale Moore is 5’7, coming off an injury plagued season, and he’s best in the slot with his hands on the ball.  Greg Dortch is 5’7 and he stepped in when Moore was hurt last year and is now redundant.  Rookie Michael Wilson is 6’2 but he had a hard time staying on the field at Stanford.  Oh, and they have Zach Pascal because someone has to have Zach Pascal.  Zach Ertz returns from injury at TE and he makes for a nice safety outlet for whoever is unlucky enough to be playing QB for this team. 

            If you think the offense sounds rough, get a load of this defense.  Jonathan Gannon has his work cut out for him and if they are transitioning this thing from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (and it looks like they are), yikes.  It’s basically SS Budda Baker and ten guys no one else wants.  Former GM Steve Keim was one of the worst drafting GMs over the last several years and this roster reflects that reality. 

            Up front the team has NT Leki Fotu, he’s built like a traditional 3-4 NT and they are going to have to see if he can transition to a 4-3 DT instead.  Carlos Watkins or Rashard Lawrence will probably start next to him.  At DE, Jonathan Ledbetter will probably be one starter while former Seahawks first-round bust LJ Collier will battle Cameron Thomas for the other spot. 

            The one guy who could benefit from Jonathan Gannon and his system is Zaven Collins.  Collins was a first-round pick a couple of years ago and they have been playing him at ILB in the 3-4 defense.  Collins has the ability to play outside and the athleticism to be used as a rusher.  Gannon had Hassan Reddick in Philadelphia and while I’m not certain Collins has the pass rush instincts of Reddick; Gannon could use Collins similarly in his scheme and see if he can generate pressure with him.  Kyzir White played for Gannon in Philly last year too and he’s probably the starting MLB.  Guys like Dennis Gardeck, BJ Ojulari and Myjai Sanders are going to try to find a spot either at LB or as DEs, wherever they think they can stick. 

            In the secondary they have Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson at safety.  Baker is one of the top safeties in the league and deserves to play on a better team.  Thompson isn’t a household name but he’s actually been pretty effective as a partner for Baker.  They are the last line of defense and with this front seven that’s a very literal term.  At CB, the team really likes Marco Wilson, he’s not the worst corner in the league but he’s not a legitimate #1 corner either.  He does look really good compared to the rest of the group; Antonio Hamilton Sr., Kei’Trel Clark, Garrett Williams (who I would like a little as a rookie if he were healthy), and Kris Boyd.  This defense is going to get destroyed most weeks.  New GM Monti Ossenfort started the rebuild when he traded back in the draft last year to pick up an extra first round pick in 2024.  He needs to see what he can get for Humphries, Baker, and anything else anyone might want, that includes Kyler.  The team started to jettison guys by shipping former first rounder Isaiah Simmons to the Giants in the preseason, they need to clear cap space so they can eat the dead money on Kyler’s deal next off season.  Ossenfort seems more pragmatic than Keim ever was and he seems smarter too. 

This division is going to be a bloodbath.  I like the Bengals because I think Burrow and that offense hasn’t peaked yet and the defense is still good enough.  If you told me all four teams in this division finished 10-7, I wouldn’t be surprised.  They are going to beat each other up and AFC is no picnic outside the division.  I’m in on Baltimore being better with a healthy, happy Lamar and no more Greg Roman.  If Watson is better the Browns should be good.  The Steelers are always steady but Kenny Pickett and a defensive backfield that’s questionable make me nervous for them. The difference between first and last in this division might be one game. I think Cincinnati is the best team in the division but you could shuffle the other three teams in an order and I would buy it.  

Cincinnati Bengals

            I’m picking the Bengals because it looks like Joe Burrow’s injury isn’t going to keep him out and this team is ready to roll.  This division is going to be tough with Lamar Jackson back to full health, the Browns hoping to rebound in Deshaun Watson’s second year, and Pittsburgh is always tough.  The Bengals offense should be one of the best in the league, the defense just needs to be steady.

            Burrow is an elite QB but it certainly helps that he has the league’s best three-man WR group.  Ja’Marr Chase is one of the top three WRs in the NFL, Tee Higgins is a #1 WR in his own right, and Tyler Boyd is a fantastic slot receiver who gets overshadowed by two elite teammates.  They didn’t have much depth at the position so they grabbed two rookies to help, Andrei Iosivas and Charlie Jones.  Jones gives them a nice return man too.  They don’t have a top TE option so they are taking a flyer on Irv Smith Jr. 

            The running game is in the capable hands of Joe Mixon, at least for this year.  They will ride with him as much as possible because Samaje Perine left for Denver.  Trayveon Williams returns but rookie Chase Brown might be the more likely backup.  The offensive line got a boost when they signed LT Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency.  They needed the upgrade and bringing him in at LT allows them to move Jonah Williams to RT where he should be an upgrade over last year’s starters at the position.  LG Cordell Volson, C Ted Karras, and RG Alex Cappa aren’t winning any awards but they should be steady and with better play on the edge, this line should be fine. 

            The Bengals don’t have superstars on the defensive line but they have excellent players who play well together.  Trey Hendrickson is the playmaking pass rusher; he didn’t have his most productive year last year but he’s still really good.  Sam Hubbard is a solid player on the opposite side.  The team grabbed Myles Murphy in round one of the drafts to give them some upside depth.  DJ Reader is a big, physical presence in the middle and he’s generally underrated.  BJ Hill is a solid player next to him. 

            The LB corps is also full of guys who aren’t superstars but are generally better at their jobs than they get credit for.  The team often only plays two LBs while being in the nickel and Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt are the two they use.  They are both solid players who are good tacklers and can do a bit of everything.  Akeem Davis-Gaither is usually the third LB. 

            The secondary is in transition as both starting safeties departed and #1 CB Chidobe Awuzie is returning from injury.  Eli Apple is gone so Cam Taylor-Britt will keep his starting spot after he replaced Awuzie last year, now he pairs with him.  Former first-round pick Dax Hill will step in at one safety spot while free agent Nick Scott should be the other one.  Rookie CB DJ Turner II and rookie safety Jordan Battle are going to make it a competition for the veterans at their spots.  Turner can push Taylor-Britt and Battle should push Scott.  They will likely rely on the veterans early but Turner and Battle are talented guys. 

Baltimore Ravens

            The Ravens’ long, drawn-out nightmare of Lamar Jackson’s contract negotiations is finally over and he got a lot of money, which we knew he would, and they didn’t give a Deshaun Watson-level of guaranteed money, which we also knew would happen.  All that bluster from both sides and we ended up exactly where we knew we would.  That’s good news for them as long as Lamar is happy and more importantly, healthy.  The happy part should be easy now that Greg Roman is gone and Todd Monken is the new offensive coordinator.  Also, Jackson finally has legitimate NFL level receivers.

            The Ravens went out and actually got Lamar Jackson legitimate NFL receivers.  That may sound disrespectful to last year’s group but they were subpar.  Odell Beckham Jr. is coming back from missing last year with an ACL tear and he’s still better than last year’s guys.  They drafted Zay Flowers, he’s an upgrade in the slot, they hope Rashod Bateman can get healthy but even if he doesn’t fully come back, they signed Nelson Agholor, that’s the best fourth WR they have had, maybe ever.  They still have Mark Andrews at TE.  His production was down last year but Jackson missed a lot of time.  They also have Isaiah Likely backing him up, he could be a player. 

            The offensive line should have four spots locked down.  That’s assuming LT Ronnie Stanley is finally healthy, they need him to be.  C Tyler Linderbaum is climbing the ladder as one of the best centers in the game.  RG Kevin Zeitler is 33 but he just keeps chugging along.  RT Morgan Moses isn’t amazing but he’s solid.  The one spot they need to figure out is LG, there are plenty of options, not sure any of them are great.  The running game is hoping for the fully healthy rebound for JK Dobbins but he started training camp on the PUP list.  They have Gus Edwards and Justice Hill but Dobbins is the best option if he’s healthy. 

            The Ravens have always been known to have a great defense but it’s going to take an especially good year from defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.  The team isn’t its usual stacked self and they will be relying on hope in some key spots instead of counting on proven players.  The defensive line has three solid guys; Justin Madubuike, Michael Pierce, and Broderick Washington.  Those guys can play the game but it would really help if Travis Jones emerged at NT. 

            The LBs are set on the inside.  Roquan Smith came over in a trade last season and immediately stepped in as the star he is.  His addition seemed to really help Patrick Queen become his best self.  The Ravens pass rush comes from their OLB spots and that’s where the hoping and wishing really comes in.  Odafe Oweh and Jadaveon Clowney are the likely starters and neither one is an elite pass rusher.  Jadaveon Clowney was a late addition during camp and while he adds value, he’s never been an elite pass rusher, just a solid overall player.  David Ojabo took his rookie year as a redshirt and comes in looking to emerge off the edge.  He’s a talented player but he was raw coming in and he missed last year rehabbing a knee, they hope he’s ready to contribute. 

            The secondary can be the best unit on this defense but they need to play better than they did last year.  Marlon Humphrey is their top CB, he’s a good player but he’s injured at the moment, that doesn’t help.  They signed Rock Ya-Sin to be the other CB and he replaces Marcus Peters, who had been falling off a bit.  Ya-Sin is a solid #2.  They signed Ronald Darby; he’s a decent veteran and we will see plenty of Jalyn Armour-Davis.  At safety they are in great shape with Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton.  Williams is one of the best in the game and Hamilton is rapidly rising up that list. 

Cleveland Browns

            I can’t believe I’m picking the Browns over the Steelers in this division but I think they are just slightly better.  It’s quite possible the Browns are just the Browns and the Steelers are just the Steelers and Cleveland ends in last place but if they aren’t good this year, it’s never going to happen.  The wildcard for this team is Deshaun Watson.  I don’t want to spend a lot of time on him but if he’s the best version of himself, this team will be good, if he’s last year’s version, Kevin Stefanski will be looking for a job. 

            This offense can be good if Watson finds his form again.  The offensive line can be excellent.  Jedrick Wills Jr. hasn’t quite been as good as some of his draft classmates at LT but he’s fine.  If Jack Conklin is healthy at RT, he’s good and they drafted a solid backup option in Dawand Jones.  Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller are an excellent pair of guards and Ethan Pocic was pretty good at center last season.  The running game is still in the capable hands of Nick Chubb, he’s one of the best RBs in football.  He doesn’t have his running mate, Kareem Hunt, any more but Jerome Ford should be solid.

            The pass catching group is better than you think.  Amari Cooper isn’t an elite #1 WR but he’s a very productive one nonetheless.  The team returns Donovan Peoples-Jones and while he’s not my favorite, they seem to like him.  They added Elijah Moore in a trade and he can be a good slot receiver if they give him a chance.  I really liked the drafting of Cedric Tillman, he’s an underrated addition.  TE David Njoku isn’t going to be mistaken for Jimmy Graham in his heyday but he’s an effective player for the Browns. 

            The defense is led by superstar DE Myles Garrett.  He’s in his prime at 27, coming off a 16-sack season, and they finally got him some legitimate help up front.  Za’Darius Smith is likely the best pure pass rusher Garrett has ever lined up opposite of in his career (Jadaveon Clowney is not a great pass rusher).  They also signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson to secure the interior so hopefully they won’t get destroyed up the middle in the run game.  If Shelby Harris happens to win the other DT starting spot, that would be three new starters on the defensive line with Garrett, smart moves. 

            The Browns run defense was atrocious last year and a big part of that was terrible linebacker play in the middle (the DTs were bad also).  Anthony Walker Jr. was supposed to be the guy at MLB last season but he got hurt early and their run defense fell apart.  He’s back and they need him badly.  Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah is a speedy, undersized LB but they are finding ways to make him useful.  Sione Takitaki is the third guy when they play three LBs.  He’s just a guy which is why they use five DBs often. 

            This secondary has the talent to be elite.  CB Denzel Ward can be one of the best in the game.  He’s not the biggest guy but that has never stopped him from covering anyone.  Martin Emerson Jr and Greg Newsome II are good, young CBs with size and skill.  FS Juan Thornhill is an underrated pickup who can be an excellent centerfielder for this team.  SS Grant Delpit will be better off at SS with Thornhill covering his back.  If this team gets better consistency upfront from Tomlinson and Smith and the LBs aren’t a total liability, this defense has a chance to be really good. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

            We know the Steelers won’t be bad, they never are, however, I’m not sure how good they will be.  They may not have substantially improved the offensive line, Kenny Pickett got better as the season went on last year but what’s his ceiling, and the defense has some questions at ILB and in the secondary.  Mike Tomlin can get them to nine wins but that might still only be fourth in this division. 

            Pickett had a brutal start to his rookie year once he took over the job but he faced a string of really good defenses right out of the gate.  He got better and that’s encouraging but how good can he really be.  He has the weapons if he can figure out how to use them.  Diontae Johnson was a target machine last year and he can’t possibly be as bad at scoring TDs as he was last season.  It was inexplicable how a guy with 86 catches on 147 targets didn’t score once, that can’t happen again.  George Pickens is one of the most physically impressive WRs in the game, they need to find ways to use him beyond him just running go routes all game (this is where Matt Canada returning as offensive coordinator is a problem).  They signed Allen Robinson hoping he has something he hasn’t shown in several years.  They have to hope Calvin Austin III finally figures it out. TE Pat Freiermuth is the unsung hero of the passing game.  He’s not a household name but he’s talented guy who can make life easier for Pickett.

            The running game has talented RBs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, even if Harris looked less than stellar last year.  The problem isn’t the RBs, although you could make the argument, they should give Warren more carries and use Harris less.  The problem comes up front.  The offensive line was not good last season.  LT Dan Moore Jr struggled and the team drafted Broderick Jones to replace him.  Jones failed to unseat Moore and I’m not sure if that’s because Jones was that bad or Moore played better.  He’s still not a great LT but if he’s better, that helps.  They signed Isaac Seumalo from Philly, he’s an upgrade at LG but he’s not great.  They need C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, and RT Chukwuma Okorafor to raise their games.  If not, it won’t matter what changes Matt Canada makes to the offense, it won’t go anywhere.

            Defense is generally not a problem in Pittsburgh and they still have plenty of talent to be good, however, there are some obvious questions they need to answer.  The front three is not where you get massive production because that’s not what they are asked to do, they just play tough up front.  Someday the now 34-year-old Cameron Heyward isn’t going to be great but I’m not betting against him.  Rookie Keeanu Benton is already slotted into the NT spot, he’s going to be fine, he’s made for it.  Larry Ogunjobi is a veteran who can hold his own. 

            The star power for the Steelers defense has come at OLB for a very long time.  TJ Watt is an in-his-prime pass rushing star who is coming off an injury that kept him out for about half of last year.  He should be fine and he should be back to being his superstar self.  With Watt injured last season Alex Highsmith had his breakout year with 14.5 sacks and now the Steelers hope he and Watt can play together and both be highly productive.  They need them to be because the ILB spots are in flux.  The team signed Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts as new starters because they just weren’t very good at ILB last year.  They even signed Kwon Alexander as depth.  Holcomb and Roberts are fine but neither one really moves the needle. 

            The secondary is also in flux.  Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best and most versatile safeties in football and he’s back, the rest of the starters might all be different.  Patrick Peterson is 33 and while he’s nowhere near his old self, they hope he still has something left to stabilize one CB spot.  They also hope rookie Joey Porter Jr can step in at the other spot otherwise they have to go back to Levi Wallace.  Wallace is okay but Porter has a lot more potential.  They also signed Chadron Sullivan to be the nickel corner but he was so unimpressive they signed Desmond King II after he was cut by the Texans.  King is a good nickel guy but if you’re taking guys cut by Houston, I don’t like your roster building at that point.  At safety they are counting on Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal to make one good player opposite Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick erases a lot of issues in a secondary but this one might have too many even for him to fix.    

            I’m going with the Bills winning because they have earned it but it’s not a sure thing.  The coaching staff issues on defense worry me, Von Miller’s age and health worry me and they may have just missed their window.  I’m picking the Patriots second because they have an elite defense just like the Jets but the Jets have an even worse offensive line situation and I’ll take Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien over Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett every day, especially on Sundays.  I’m picking them over the Dolphins because the Dolphins offensive line isn’t great either, their QB is one major hit away from retirement and their defense still needs to prove it will be great under Vic Fangio and that’s going to be harder without Jalen Ramsey for most of the year.  This division is going to be competitive and the difference between first and last might be two games. 

Buffalo Bills

            I’m picking the Bills to win this division but I’m not all that confident in this choice.  The team was good last year but flamed out in the playoffs, they didn’t add anyone of major significance, and they have a few question marks going into the season.  Josh Allen is still the best QB in this division and none of the other three teams look ready to take the title from Allen and the Bills just yet.  They won’t walk through this division but they should come out on top.

            Allen gives the Bills a leg up, he covers for any possible flaws in this offense but he could use some guys stepping up.  Stefon Diggs is a legitimate #1 WR but there was a moment this off season where he seemed upset with his contract status.  If he isn’t fully focused this team has an issue.  They need Diggs because they don’t have a clear second star in the passing offense.  Gabe Davis hasn’t proven to be consistent enough, Dawson Knox isn’t that guy, and none of the rest of the WR/TE group are proven guys.  The one guy that might end up being the player they need is rookie TE Dalton Kincaid and relying on a rookie TE to take your offense up a notch would be foolish. 

            The running game is mostly Josh Allen when it matters and while the team likes to talk about using RBs more it has been the same talking points for years now and it never changes.  James Cook is the new RB they like to talk about and they also tout the fact they signed Damien Harris to take the short yardage carries off of Allen.  Cook is a second-year guy who couldn’t unseat Devin Singletary last year so we’ll see how that goes.  Harris is a talented big back but he has a hard time staying healthy and he’s already gotten banged up in camp.  The offensive line isn’t great.  They don’t have a top player at any position.  LT Dion Dawkins and C Mitch Morse are above average but that’s the best thing you can say about them.  Rookie O’Cyrus Torrance took the RG spot and he gives them their best chance at an elite starter, just probably not this year.  Ryan Bates, Connor McGovern, and Spencer Brown, get the job done but they aren’t great.

            The problems on defense start with the fact that Sean McDermott let Leslie Frazier go as defensive coordinator and is taking it over himself.  McDermott is an accomplished defensive coach but I think he should be concentrating on the whole team as the head coach. 

            Miller was having a good season when he got injured last year and he was having a great effect on the rest of the defense.  That was especially true for young pass rusher Greg Rousseau who was breaking out with Miller on the opposite side.  The problem was that when Miller went down, Rousseau’s production tanked too.  That’s not a good sign.  The team did sign veteran pass rusher Leonard Floyd to go with AJ Epenesa and Shaq Lawson but Miller is starting the season on the PUP list meaning he will miss at least the first four games.  DT Ed Oliver got a big contract, now he needs to play up to it.  DaQuan Jones is the bigger body in the middle who makes Oliver’s job a bit easier. 

            At LB, things get interesting after the team let Tremaine Edmunds walk in free agency.  Matt Milano does return but he needs a partner in the middle.  Milano is an excellent player but either Tyrel Dodson or Terrel Bernard is going to have to step up.  The Bills mostly play only two LBs but if one of them isn’t up to snuff, it could get rough. 

            The secondary needs Tre’Davious White to return to his pre-injury form as a top CB in the league.  He has the talent and hopefully the health this year.  They also need Kaiir Elam to take a step in his second year, he’s a talented player but he was inconsistent last year.  Taron Johnson is their nickel guy and they play five defensive backs a lot.  The good news for the Bills is that they will hopefully have their full complement of safeties back and ready to roll.  Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde both missed games last year (Hyde missed all but two).  Obviously, Demar Hamlin also had that little issue where he died on the field for a moment.  I can make that joke because miraculously, he’s back and ready to play.  I don’t cheer for the Bills but I’m cheering for that guy.  Poyer and Hyde are an elite duo at safety when healthy, Hamlin is an inspiration to this team. 

New England Patriots

            Bill Belichick’s coaching greatness took a serious blow last season with the Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator experiment, it was an unmitigated disaster.  Common sense has been restored and Bill O’Brien is back to run an actual NFL offense.  Mac Jones was a solid rookie when he had Josh McDaniels running the offense, last year he was bad because Patricia was awful, this year he gets back to an actual offensive mind running things.  The preseason put to rest any thoughts that Bailey Zappe will take Jones’ job when Zappe looked so bad, they cut him instead of carrying him as the backup. 

            The passing attack should be better with Jones feeling less frustrated and there is some hope for improvement from the group of pass catchers.  I’m not a DeVante Parker fan but he’s serviceable on the outside.  Kendrick Bourne probably benefits from Matt Patricia’s ouster almost as much as Mac Jones, he’s out of the doghouse and Bill O’Brien has him starting.  JuJu Smith-Schuster needs to get healthy but he should catch a lot of passes mostly playing out of the slot.  The two big X factors for this offense are two rookie WRs.  Demario Douglas has been the star of camp, he’s going to light it up, especially if JuJu misses time and Douglas becomes the main slot receiver.  I had my concerns about Kayshon Boutte coming out of LSU but he’s proven to be a major play maker.  The Patriots passing game needs a big play guy, Boutte has the talent to be that.  TE Hunter Henry isn’t flashy but he’s reliable and O’Brien and Mac will trust him when they need third down conversion or in the red zone.  The other potential playmaker is TE Mike Gesicki, he’s working back from an injury, but he’s a dynamic pass catcher when healthy.

            The running game is in good hands with Rhamondre Stevenson coming off an impressive year and the mid-camp signing of Ezekiel Elliott.  Stevenson was one of the best backs in football last year despite playing in a trainwreck of an offense.  He was a bell cow carrying the ball and he’s a talented pass catcher.  One thing Stevenson was bad at last year was short yardage conversions, enter Ezekiel Elliott.  Zeke is one of the most effective short yardage backs in football.  He may not have the elite game breaking ability he had earlier in his career but he still knows how to convert on third down and find the end zone inside the five.  The Patriots needed a true #2 tailback and they found a perfect fit. 

            The offensive line is a mess, they need guys to get healthy, and to start the year they are carrying 11 offensive linemen, that’s ridiculous.  LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, and RG Michael Onwenu haven’t been healthy in camp and the backups haven’t been good.  C David Andrews is the only sure thing because the Patriots haven’t even settled on a RT yet.  They are trying rookie Sidy Sow at RT but he’s a work in progress.  New offensive line coach Adrian Klemm has his work cut out for him but at least he’s not Matt Patricia, who was not only a terrible offensive coordinator last year but doubled as a crappy o-line coach too.  They have veterans like Conor McDermott, Calvin Anderson, Riley Rieff (if he doesn’t end up on injured reserve), none of them have played well.  Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi are young options inside and they have no young options at OT except Sidy Sow.  Klemm needs to work some magic and O’Brien must scheme up some ways to help the offensive line otherwise this offense is going to struggle. 

            The Patriots’ defense was one of the better defenses in football last year and they drafted three rookies who will help, one at each level of the defense.  Up front, the defensive line has veterans Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, and Davon Godchaux starting.  These guys don’t generally light up a stat sheet but that isn’t their job.  Their job is to make life easier for the LBs to make plays and they do that very well.  Christian Barmore is going into his third year and he could be ready for a breakout.  Rookie Keion White is the perfect Belichick defensive lineman with size an athleticism and he may be a guy who can be a playmaker up front. 

            Linebacker is generally where the playmaking comes from in a Belichick defense.  Matt Judon has proven to be one of the best free agent splurges the Patriots have ever made and he’s an elite pass rusher for this team.  It really helped him last season when Josh Uche broke out on the opposite side as a pass rusher because it took some focus off of Judon.  Those two should continue to feed off each other with Anfernee Jennings the primary backup.  On the inside Ja’Whaun Bentley has never been my favorite guy but he’s gotten better and Patriots have found ways to use him where he’s most useful and not put him in situations he’s not great at.  Jahlani Tavai is the other starting ILB for now but he’s going to steadily lose time to rookie Marte Mapu who is an athletic freak.  Mapu is a converted safety/undersized LB whose athleticism is going to make him a playmaker on the inside.  He’s going to be fun to watch develop over the next several years. 

            The secondary got its biggest boost in a while when CB Christian Gonzalez inexplicably feel to the middle of round one in draft and Patriots got him.  Gonzalez is exactly what this defense needed, a big, physical outside corner to match up with the other team’s best receivers.  Gonzalez is going to make his rookie mistakes but he’s going to be huge for this team.  Gonzalez’s addition should allow the Patriots to move Jonathan Jones back inside where he’s one of the better slot corners in football, that upgrades two spots.  That’s assuming Jack Jones isn’t suspended too long (he needs to get his head on straight) and can be the other outside corner.  At safety the team has four guys who will rotate depending on matchups.  Kyle Duggar will get the most playing time, he’s earned it.  Adrian Phillips backs him up but can also play alongside him.  Jabrill Peppers is a jack-of-all-trades kind of guy who can also play either safety spot, some slot, and even come up like he’s a LB.  Jalen Mills is still a guy I can’t stand but he’s much more tolerable as a matchup specific fourth safety than as a starting CB. 

Miami Dolphins

            The Dolphins’ offense is absolutely elite under the direction of Mike McDaniel as long as Tua Tagovailoa is running it.  Tua admitted this off season that he contemplated retirement due to all the concussion issues he dealt with last season.  He’s the perfect QB to run McDaniel’s offense because he’s a precision passer who can get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle like he’s a point guard dishing out assists.  The problem is his health. 

            The problem with counting on Tua staying healthy is that the Dolphins still haven’t fixed an offensive line that might get Tua killed.  It’s not for a lack of trying, in the past several years they have signed free agents like Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, and Isaiah Wynn, and drafted Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson, and Robert Hunt high in the draft.  None of these moves have fixed the offensive line.  Armstead is an elite LT when healthy, that’s about 10 games max per year.  They signed Wynn to help, that’s not a solution, 10 healthy games from him would be a reach and he’s not great when he is healthy.  Williams is a solid center and Eichenberg should settle in at LG but neither is elite.  It’s still a mishmash trying to find the right combination and when your QB has concussion issues, an inconsistent offensive line means you’re living on the edge of disaster. 

            That said, this team has elite skill position players and probably the fastest group of players in the NFL.  You could put together an amazing 4 x 100-meter relay team with WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and RBs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.  Hill and Waddle make this offense absolutely frightening.  Either one can take a five yard catch and turn it into a 80-yard TD at any moment.  They don’t have a lot of depth because #3 WR Cedric Wilson had 12 catches for 136 yards last year in 15 games, which is basically a solid Tyreek Hill game.  Braxton Berrios is the next guy.  RB Raheem Mostert is a beast when he’s healthy but that’s hard to count on which is why they have Jeff Wilson Jr.  He’s solid in the McDaniel’s running scheme but he’s starting the year out with an injury.  Achane is the x factor.  If they use him right and get him involved, he’s a big play monster they could unleash. 

            The Dolphin’s defense has some excellent players on it and they could be elite but they are making transition from Josh Boyer’s defense to Vic Fangio which is like going from driving a Smart Car to driving a Ferrari.  Fangio will be more aggressive and that’s usually a good thing but it can lead to giving up plays if guys don’t know what they are doing.  The defensive front features DEs Christian Wilkins and Zach Seiler.  Wilkins is fantastic and he gets a lot of praise, rightfully so.  Seiler is good too but gets less recognition for it.  They flank NT Raekwon Davis, as with most NTs Davis is unheralded but quite good. 

            At OLB is where Fangio should unleash the playmakers this team has.  They traded for Bradley Chubb last year and he’s a proven commodity provided he can stay healthy.  He will play opposite emerging star Jaelan Phillips.  They need these two to play to their absolute best because they need to generate a pass rush for the defense to work.  The team did hedge a bit against these two staying healthy by keeping Andrew Van Ginkel around.  The inside LBs are Jerome Baker, a speedy playmaker who tackles everything and free agent signee David Long Jr.  Long is also an undersized guy like Baker except he’s even shorter. 

            The secondary looked like it could be a real strength when they traded for Jalen Ramsey to pair at CB with Xavien Howard, then Ramsey went down with a knee injury and things got a little tougher.  They don’t want to have to count on rookie Cam Smith but he might be the better option but for now it’s second-year man Kader Kohou.  The safety spot is similar in the fact they have one good starter, Javon Holland, and the other spot is questionable with DeShon Elliott penciled in right now.  Holland is a player but his job is lot harder if the other safety is bad.  The secondary really needs the pass rush to put pressure on the QB to make their lives easier otherwise, this defense could come apart at the seams. 

New York Jets

            The addition of Aaron Rodgers is clearly the headline for the Jets and I think he’s a major addition even if he isn’t peak MVP Rodgers.  Zach Wilson was so unbelievably bad last season that he completely destroyed the Jets offense.  Rodgers doesn’t have to be his best self; he just has to not be a complete disaster and he improves this team.  I think Rodgers will be slightly better than good but probably not all the way to great, assuming he doesn’t get annihilated behind this offensive line.  Ah, there’s the problem. 

            I’m not going to sugarcoat this, the Jets offensive line might be the worst one in the league, it’s that bad.  The guards are good, let’s start there.  Laken Tomlinson isn’t quite as dominant as he was in San Francisco and he is 31 so he’s probably just good at this point, not great.  Alijah Vera-Tucker has all the ability to be one of the best guards in football, he’s coming off an injury but he should be good.  C Connor McGovern is holding on to his starting job for now as rookie Joe Tippman is banged up.  There’s a reason they drafted Tippman, McGovern isn’t great.  The OT positions are where this team can really fall apart.  LT Duane Brown will be 38 this season and he only holds this position because they can’t come up with anyone better.  Mehki Becton is set to be the RT assuming he can’t win the LT spot back from Brown.  Becton was the LT many moons ago but he’s battled injury and ineffectiveness the past several years.  They need him and Brown to settle in at the tackle spots or they may have to use Max Mitchell and Billy Turner. 

            The skill position talent is excellent for the Jets.  WR Garrett Wilson had a great rookie year with some terrible QBs so having Rodgers should only make him better, assuming Rodgers doesn’t just throw to all the former Packers the Jets now have.  Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb joined the Jets, they are Rodgers favorites.  Mecole Hardman was also added from Kansas City, they have plenty of talent and depth at WR.  They should play Lazard, Wilson, and Hardman the most (Cobb shouldn’t be used a lot, but he’s penciled in as the slot guy right now).  At TE they have Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah, solid duo.  RB Breece Hall was a star until he tore his ACL last season, they can ease him back in this year.  They signed Dalvin Cook to give Rodgers a veteran to count on and to give Hall a little more space to return. 

            As much as I question Robert Saleh as a head coach, I can’t question him as a defensive mind.  The Jets defense was definitely better than the sum of its parts.  They don’t have an elite pass rusher but they manufactured pressure with Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers at DE and Quincy Williams blitzing at LB but I’ll get to him.  Lawson and Franklin-Myers were good but they aren’t elite pass rushers which is why the team spent a first-round pick on Will McDonald IV to be a pass rush specialist.  He’s undersized but he’s got speed off the edge, which is what they need.  DT Quinnen Williams is a beast inside (Quincy is his brother) and he commands a lot of attention inside, opening the edges a little.  Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson, and Solomon Thomas give them a rotation at DT. 

            The LBs are led by Quincy Williams.  He’s generally been known as Quinnen’s brother but he had a great year last year.  They used him as a blitzer to create pressure but he’s also just a good LB.  CJ Mosley plays the middle and he’s still a tackling machine even at 31.  Those two get the bulk of the playing time at LB.  Jamien Sherwood is the third guy, he’s just a guy. 

            The secondary is led by second year CB Sauce Gardner.  Gardner staked his claim to being the best CB in the league last year as a rookie (it’s a him and Patrick Surtain II duking it out for that title).  DJ Reed is a really good second corner.  Jordan Whitehead does his job and safety and the team thought they had a plan opposite him when they traded for Chuck Clark from Baltimore.  Then injury struck Clark and they quickly pivoted to veteran Adrian Amos.  Amos isn’t the guy he once was and he’s fighting Tony Adams for the starting job but at least he’s veteran if they have to turn to him.         

2023 NFC East Preview

This division should be pretty competitive even with the defending NFC Champions in it. The Eagles are the best team in the NFC for now but the Cowboys are going to be nipping at their heels. The Giants aren’t going to be pushovers either. Brian Daboll may be working with a bunch of slot receivers but if anyone can make that work, it’s him. Washington is looking for a fresh start and they are going to let Sam Howell take a shot at the QB job, if he fails, they pivot in the off season, no harm, no foul.

Philadelphia Eagles

            The Eagles made the Super Bowl last season after Jalen Hurts balled out all year.  Then he continued his great play in the Super Bowl even though the Eagles lost to Kansas City.  They have their QB and they have surrounded him with an excellent team on offense and defense.  They need to take advantage while they can because teams like this are expensive and can’t last forever. 

            The Eagles have the best offensive line in football even with second-year man Cam Jurgens replacing veteran Isaac Seumalo at RG.  LT Jordan Mailata is a mountain of a man who moves way better than a man his size should.  LG Landon Dickerson is quickly becoming one of the better guards in football.  C Jason Kelce is 35 but he’s still arguably the best center in the NFL.  RT Lane Johnson is still the best in the game.  The team is clearly counting on this unit to enhance their running game.  They signed Rashad Penny and traded for D’Andre Swift at RB.  Neither one is the picture of health but they are complementary backs.  Hurts is probably still their most effective runner but they also have Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott, it’s probably a committee approach.

            The passing game is where this team really developed last year.  AJ Brown was in his first year with the Eagles and he was outstanding.  He teamed with Devonta Smith to be a deadly duo.  Both players are elite talents and they really allowed Hurts the chance to show his development as a passer.  TE Dallas Goedert is also a fantastic safety valve and a good all-around TE.  If there is one problem it’s the fact that the depth isn’t great.  They signed WR Olamide Zaccheaus at WR and they still have Quez Watkins but it’s not a deep receiving group.  TE isn’t deep behind Goedert either. 

            The Eagles’ defense is definitely starting to transition from an older group to some of their younger players and their younger players have lots of potential.  Up front they have two longtime veteran stalwarts; DE Brandon Graham and DT Fletcher Cox.  Both of them will be used heavily in rotations but the younger guys are going to get more time.  At DE, they have Josh Sweat, who will start opposite Graham, Derek Barnett, who is fine but not great, and Janarius Robinson, a raw prospect.  At DT, Jordan Davis will likely start next to Cox but Jalen Carter is going to play a lot.  Carter could start just to lessen Davis’s workload.  Milton Williams will also rotate in.  They have a lot of bodies to work with.

            The LB corps is in even more transition as Nakobe Dean steps in at MLB.  Hassan Reddick returns as their outside guy who doubles as an elite pass rusher.  Reddick is the major playmaker on this defense but they need Dean to step in and stabilize this unit.  The team signed veterans Nick Morrow, Zach Cunningham, and Myles Jack to give them some options and some depth.  However, Jack announced his retirement halfway through camp and Morrow didn’t make the roster, leaving Cunningham as the third LB.  They need Dean to be his best self so Reddick can make plays. 

            The team kept their top CBs together as they re-signed James Bradberry and kept Darius Slay happy.  Avonte Maddox returns as the nickel guy, that’s the good news.  The bad news is they have two new starting safeties.  Terrell Edmunds comes in from Pittsburgh, he’s fine but he’s not great.  Reed Blankenship played in ten games last year but wasn’t a full-time starter.  The free safety job is his unless he loses it to rookie Sydney Brown, I won’t be surprised if Brown eventually takes the job.  I also wouldn’t be shocked if Justin Evans takes Edmunds’ job.  The Eagles are the best team in the NFC until someone proves otherwise.  They will get some competition within their own division. 

Dallas Cowboys

            The NFC isn’t a deep conference overall and the Eagles will find some of their toughest competition right here with them in the East.  The Cowboys have some flaws but they aren’t going to roll over and let the Eagles steamroll to a division title.  One major issue is Kellen Moore was let go as offensive coordinator and head coach Mike McCarthy will be calling plays, that’s worrisome (hiring Brian Schottenheimer as the “offensive coordinator” does not help one not worry).  McCarthy has never been seen as an innovative offensive mind and it’s been a while since he called plays. 

            Dak Prescott has been a good QB his entire career, at times it felt like he was on the cusp of being elite but he’s never quite gotten there.  The team hasn’t won anything of significance since he’s been there but then again, they haven’t won anything of significance since the mid-90s so it’s hard to fault Prescott alone.  I’m pretty sure McCarthy’s play calling isn’t the thing that will “unlock” Prescott’s greatness so he’ll have to rely on a healthier offense.  The team turned the page on the Ezekiel Elliott era and it’s Tony Pollard’s backfield now.  He’s coming off an injury and he’s only on a one-year franchise deal but he’s got more juice than Elliott had and now he’ll get the bulk of the carries, they don’t have many choices behind him. 

            For Dak and Tony’s sake they have to hope for better help up front and health would go a long way to accomplishing that.  LT Tyron Smith got hurt last year and then when he did return he ended up moving to RT out of need.  He’ll turn 33 at the end of the season and they need to squeeze one more year out of him.  LG Tyler Smith was a rookie who ended up mostly playing LT when the elder Smith got hurt and then stayed there when RT Terrence Steele was hurt and Tyron Smith had to play RT.  He was actually pretty good at LT and he is the eventual starter there but the team is better off if everyone is healthy and he can play LG.  C Tyler Biadasz isn’t great but he’s better than the alternative.  He had a high ankle sprain to end last year but should be fine now.  RT Terrence Steele can be solid but he’s also coming off an injury.  RG Zach Martin is a Hall of Fame guard who held out for the first three weeks of camp but finally got a new deal.  He’s a month older than Tyron Smith but he’s been healthy for almost all of his career.  He’s still one of the best guards in the league and they need him to stay that way. 

            One reason to feel optimistic about the Cowboys offense besides Tony Pollard’s ascension to the top RB spot is CeeDee Lamb finally has some help at WR.  Lamb is a legitimate #1 WR but he’s mostly been working without a partner to take pressure off of him.  Michael Gallup returns and he should be better another year removed from injury but that’s not who I’m talking about.  Brandin Cooks joins the Cowboys from Houston.  Cooks is on his fifth team in ten years in the league but he’s been productive everywhere he’s been.  In nine previous seasons he has six 1000-yard seasons.  He’s had productive years playing with Drew Brees and Tom Brady but he’s also had productive seasons with Jared Goff and Davis Mills as his QB.  Cooks is a talented guy and he’s going to actually be someone who takes some coverage off of Lamb.  At TE, the team has Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot, and rookie Luke Schoonmaker, they aren’t great but they’ll do. 

            The defense should be excellent once again under the direction of interim-coach-in-waiting Dan Quinn (I don’t have a lot of faith in McCarthy).  This defense has been elite since Quinn took over two years ago and their plan to play Micah Parsons as a pass rusher even more should continue that trend.  Parsons is an elite play maker and he makes the rest of the front four even better.  DeMarcus Lawrence hasn’t been an elite pass rusher in a few years but he’s solid and the team has some depth with Dorace Armstrong and Sam Williams so they are fine.  First-round DT Mazi Smith is the big bodied interior presence they have needed for a few years and he should help.  Jonathan Hankins, Osa Odighizuwa, and Neville Gallimore give them a solid rotation. 

            With Parsons making the full-time move to DE they need some youngsters to step up at LB.  Leighton Vander Esch is the veteran they hope to lean on but Damone Clark and Devin Harper are guys who must step forward.  They had high hope for rookie DeMarvion Overshown but he’s out for the year with a knee injury.  Vander Esch has stayed relatively healthy the last couple of years so they hope that trend continues, they need his leadership at LB. 

            The secondary has counted on Trevon Diggs’ big play reputation in the past but he sometimes gets beat going for those big plays.  He needs to just be steady at times.  They finally might have a solution opposite him with Stephon Gilmore coming over in a trade after having a bounce back year last season.  It would be good if Jourdan Lewis could return from injury to be the nickel corner but if not, DaRon Bland played pretty well there as a rookie last year.  The safety spots aren’t elite but Malik Hooker, Donovan Wilson, and Jayron Kearse are a solid rotation who won’t get you beat.

New York Giants

            Brian Daboll did a masterful job making something out of this offense last year and allowing Wink Martindale to cut this defense loose.  I’m not sure how Daboll is planning on using Isaiah Hodgins and five slot receivers to make a passing offense but it should be fun watching him try.  He figured out how to make Daniel Jones and effective QB with a bunch of practice squad receivers last year so who am I to doubt him (I question the personnel more than Daboll).  Jones isn’t elite at anything as a QB but he’s a solid passer, a good runner, and he seems to know how to run Daboll’s offense pretty well.

            Okay, the easy part of the offense, RB Saquon Barkley signed a one-year deal to return and remain the mainstay of this offense.  Barkley is one of the most talented RBs in the NFL as both a runner and a receiver.  He’s the engine of the offense and they need him to stay healthy.  He’s running behind what should be an improving offensive line.  LT Andrew Thomas took a step towards being one the elite LTs in football last year, that’s a great place to start.  The team drafted John Michael Schmitz in the second-round and he’s an immediate starter and an upgrade at center.  Hopefully his presence will be a stabilizing force on the inside and make Ben Bredeson and Mark Glowinski at least passable at guard.  RT Evan Neal had a rough rookie year.  He was making the transition from college LT to pro RT and while it’s easy for some people, it was quite difficult for Neal and it showed.  He has the talent and size to excel at RT and the truth is, they don’t have anyone else truly worth trying at RT in his place.  He should be better this year. 

            TE Darren Waller was the headliner of the offensive players the team brought in to help this offense move forward.  They traded for him and he should become a Daniel Jones favorite if he can stay healthy.  They found Isaiah Hodgins on the Bills practice squad halfway through last year when they were desperate for bodies and now, he’s their top returning WR.  He’s the only big body they have so he gets one of the outside spots.  When I said they had five slot receivers I wasn’t joking.  Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, Parris Campbell; all guys who are probably best suited playing from the slot.  And that’s after cutting two other ones in Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder.  Slayton can give them some snaps outside and perhaps Hyatt but he’s not great if he gets jammed at the line. 

            The defense was better last year than I think most thought they would be.  Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale unleashed his usual aggressive style and made the most of the guys he had.  Dexter Lawrence is one of the best DTs in the league and he played great ball last season.  Leonard Williams’ sack production has declined the past several years but he’s still a tough matchup up front.  They signed A’Shawn Robison to be the third guy on the three-man front and he can be a solid player. 

            Martindale’s defense can take another step forward if he can harness the pass rushing skills of Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari.  They both flashed at times last season but Ojulari missed some time and Thibodeaux was a rookie.  They both have top pass rushing skills and they could be a deadly combo.  The team signed Bobby Okereke to come in to play ILB, they gave him quite a bit of money for a guy who’s solid but unspectacular, perhaps Martindale can raise his game.  Micah McFadden won the other ILB job. 

            The secondary is in for some change this season.  Adoree’ Jackson returns at CB but he might be making the move inside to the slot.  Deonte Banks was the Giants first round pick this year and he will get every opportunity to be one of the starters on the outside.  The Giants haven’t had a lot of luck drafting CBs lately but rookie sixth rounder Tre Hawkins III was making a play early in camp and getting some time with the first team.  Xavier McKinney returns at FS while Jason Pinnock is the starting strong safety for now.  They have some other players to try at both CB and safety so there could be some movement here. 

Washington Commanders

            To say this team is in a state of transition would be a massive understatement.  The team has a new owner, Josh Harris (and his group of investors).  They are going with a new QB that no one is sure about, and my guess is the Commanders name will not be sticking around forever.  Forget Harris and the name change, those are franchise issues, how about this team.  Sam Howell was a fifth-round pick last year, sat on the bench until he started the last game and now it’s his job.  Howell has talent, he’s got a good arm and can run.  New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy comes over from the Chiefs and he will try to squeeze everything he can out of Howell. 

            The good news is this team has legitimate NFL talent at the skill positions, especially the pass catchers.  Terry McLaurin is one of the best WRs no one talks about because he’s spent most of his career with QBs who weren’t very good.  Jahan Dotson was a first round pick last year for a reason, he’s a true talent.  Curtis Samuel has always been a productive player when he can stay on the field.  TE Logan Thomas has been a very productive player when he’s healthy and usually regardless of who the QB is.  If Howell can figure out how to operate the scheme and get the ball to the play makers, this offense can be solid. 

            The running game has Brian Robinson Jr, a year removed from the gunshot wounds in his leg.  He’s a good running back and he gets the tough yards.  Antonio Gibson is still a guy who can be an offensive weapon out of the backfield.  He can run and catch the ball, they should use him for that.  The offensive line was not great last year so they made some changes.  They brought in C Nick Gates and RT Andrew Wylie.  Neither one of them are making the Pro Bowl but they are steady veterans who can be upgrades at their positions.  Charles Leno returns at LT, he’s not great but he’s serviceable.  Saahdiq Charles moves to LG and Sam Cosmi moves from RT to RG, that should help on the interior. 

            The defensive line has the potential to be incredible.  Daron Payne was re-signed to a megadeal at DT and he joins Jonathan Allen as a impressive pair inside.  Montez Sweat is an emerging player at DE and he could breakout this year.  Chase Young is the wildcard.  He’s been hurt and ineffective the last two years and they really need him to regain his promise.  If these four guys play to their potential this line is dominate, if not, this defense falls apart fast. 

            The LBs are questionable.  Jamin Davis had a productive season in his second year but some of that was because he was the only guy doing anything of note at LB.  He’s a talented guy but he needs some help.  They signed Cody Barton from Seattle to be the new MLB.  Barton is a guy you like and he was productive last season but again, that may have been a product of his environment.  Barton and Davis are young guys who could be just coming into their own or guys who aren’t as good as the stats say.  If they play a third LB it’s probably David Mayo, they shouldn’t play a third LB very often. 

            CB Kendall Fuller has been a mainstay for this team and he gets a new running mate this year.  The team drafted Emmaual Forbes in the first round of the draft and while he’s thin as a rail, he’s a playmaker.  Benjamin St.-Juste got plenty of playing time last season but he’ll be the third corner this year.  Kamren Curl is a pretty good safety and he could be even better if he gets some help on this defense.  Derrick Forrest is the other starter, for now he’s just a guy.