I just want to thank NFL.com for their coverage of the Scouting Combine if it wasn’t for them I may have actually been productive over the last six days of my life.  I watched every minute of every drill I could possible see and I have read basically every report coming out of the combine about medical reports and interviews.  I do wish I could listen to Mike Mayock break down every minute of every player on every drill the entire time, I find myself nodding along with him as he speaks.  Here are the notes and conclusions I have drawn from the happenings at the Scouting Combine.  These are my opinions based on what I have seen and what has been reported.

Notes from the Scouting Combine
-Manti Te’o ran like he was in sand and he will be lucky to go to Baltimore at the end of the first round. His only saving grace was Minter wasn’t fast either and Ogletree is still a head case.  There are reports out of the combine that Alec Ogletree’s interviews with teams left a lot to be desired, reportedly he lied to teams about things they already knew the truth about (like his suspension last year for failing a drug test).  Drafting this kid is like buying a Powerball ticket, the jackpot is worth the gamble as long as you don’t spend more than you can afford.

– Tyler Eifert definitely helped himself; he finally looked like a TE and not just a jacked-up WR. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder between Eifert and Ertz and they are clearly the top two TE’s on the board.

-I was seriously wrong in my mock draft, Jonathan Cooper will make the first round for sure and he may go in the top half.  He had an excellent showing at the combine and teams even had him doing some drills as a center which will only increase his value.  I don’t know the draft history off the top of my head but I can’t remember ever having two interior offensive linemen rated this high with both possibly going in the top half of the first round.

-Damontre Moore just blew the biggest job interview of his life.  I try not to put too much stock in the numbers from the combine and I don’t like downgrading a guy because of a bad performance but Moore’s performance confounds me.  When all a guy has to do is show up, do what is expected and he’s a lock for the top 10 and instead he shows up looking like he isn’t prepared you start to wonder.  What bothers me is that Moore had to know the Jordan and Ansah were going to put up incredible numbers and by looking unprepared he comes off as a guy not willing to compete.  Jordan, Ansah, and Barkevious Mingo all passed Moore on the draft board and while Bjoern Werner wasn’t great either he is probably ahead of Moore and I may consider Datone Jones of UCLA ahead of Moore now too.

-Star Lotulelei’s draft stock starts to tumble until he can find a cardiologist that will give him a clean bill of health or figure out how to fix him (if that’s even possible, I’m not a doctor).  Sharrif Floyd and Sheldon Richardson certainly move up until Lotulelei’s health is no longer a question.

-Terron Armstead OT Arkansas Pine-Bluff ran the 40 really fast for an offensive lineman, heck he beat Te’o by a tenth of a second but don’t get so excited.  Lane Johnson was only a hundredth of a second slower and he’s a better player.  Armstead made himself a much higher draft pick but don’t overestimate the 40 times of O-linemen.

-Eric Fisher is making himself a lot of money as he just keeps climbing the draft boards.  Whatever the difference in pay is between where he goes in this draft and the early 20’s pick he would have been he owes a commission to Taylor Lewan and Jake Matthews for returning to school.

-In the last couple of days following the scouting combine I’ve come across a couple of updated mock drafts on-line, one that had Eric Fisher going number 1 (Dane Brugler NFLDraftScout.com) and one with Lane Johnson going number 1 (Pat Kirwan CBSSports.com).  This is a case of overvaluing scouting combine results and guys trying to show off.  There is no guarantee that the Chiefs will take on OT first overall but if the Chiefs take on OT first overall it will be Joeckel.  Go back to the tape guys, GO BACK TO THE TAPE.  Fisher and Johnson made themselves a lot of money this weekend but not #1 overall pick kind of money.

-I read a story the other day after the OL workouts that talked about how DJ Fluker’s 40 time was disappointing (he ran 5.31).  Have you seen the guy, he’s a massive human being even after losing 16 lbs. since the Senior Bowl.  Just draft him and be glad he can actually run 40 yards at all.  He is a devastating blocker and you don’t need him 40 yards down the field, you just need him destroying everyone within about 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.  And he will.

-Cordarrelle Patterson measured in at 6-2 216 lbs. and ran a 4.42 40-yard dash, cha-ching.  With Keenan Allen sitting out the combine with an injury the only other WR that truly made an impact was Tavon Austin with his 4.34 time in the 40.  However, Austin needed that time because he measured in at about 5-9 and 174 lbs.  He’s good at what he is as a WR but he isn’t the same kind of number one receiver that Patterson projects to be.

-Lots of people saying Geno Smith either held serve as the top QB in this draft or solidified his spot at the top of the QB chart.  Really?  He looked fine but would I rather spend a top 10 pick on him or grab EJ Manuel in the second round?  I’ll take Manuel.  Smith is not a sure-fire day one starter in the NFL and I don’t see him making the same immediate impact as Luck, Griffin or Wilson did so if I have to wait I’ll just wait on Manuel.  Also, how can you make that claim when the only QB (Matt Barkley) that could realistically challenge him for the top spot didn’t even throw?  I do love that one knock on Matt Barkley coming into the combine was that he isn’t prototypical  height for a QB, then he measured in 1/8 of an inch taller than Smith.  Just to refresh your memory in 2001 Michael Vick went #1 overall and Drew Brees went first in the second round, people thought Brees was too short to be a top QB.  Brees was also about a half an inch taller than Vick, who would you want as your QB now?  Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  I still think they both should go in the second round and I still believe they both will get drafted in the first round.

-Somebody forgot to tell Dee Milliner he was already the top CB in this draft.  Here’s a guy who pulled the anti-Damontre Moore move.  Milliner was the top CB in the draft and most people saw him going in the top eight because of the value of his position but instead of just going out there and solidifying his spot he blazed his 40 and locked up a top five spot.  There was one big negative on the scouting report for Milliner; it read “lacks elite speed”.  The only thing faster than Milliner’s 40 time was the time it took for scouts to cross out that note.  Desmond Trufant (a favorite of mine) and Xavier Rhodes both ran very well too and locked up the top two spots behind Milliner.

Positional Notes

QB- This group proved to be as underwhelming as everyone suspected.  Tyler Bray looks the part with his stature and big arm but he needs serious work on his reads and his decision making.

RB- Equally as underwhelming especially with Eddie Lacy not taking part in the combine.  Only thing of note was the speedster Andre Ellington of Clemson running 4.61 and making scouts think their stop watches were broken, he needs to run a lot better at his pro day or he may not get drafted.

WR- Patterson, Allen and Austin are the only sure-fire first round picks but there are probably five guys that could go in the second round (Robert Woods, DeAndre Hopkins, Quinton Patton, Terrence Williams and Justin Hunter).  Depth is a wonderful thing.

OL- Great talent at the top of the charts; Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson, Warmack, Cooper and Fluker are all destined for the first round.

DL- An embarrassment of riches.  At DE; Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Bjoern Werner, Damontre Moore, Datone Jones, Alex Okafor and Margus Hunt.  At DT; Sheldon Richardson, Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Jonathan Hankins, Kawann Short, Jesse Williams, Sylvester Williams and John Jenkins.  With all of these players half of the first round could be defensive lineman.

LB- The defensive line is an embarrassment of riches while the LB group is just an embarrassment.  Te’o, Minter and Ogletree all have their issues and Arthur Brown, one of the better looking players on tape has sat out the Senior Bowl and the Scouting Combine.  The guy who probably helped himself the most is North Carolina’s Kevin Reddick, he looks like he could be a three down LB.

CB- Really good at the top (Milliner, Trufant and Rhodes) with nice depth (Jonathan Banks, David Amerson, Jordan Poyer, Jamar Taylor, Darius Slay).  The real news was Banks running in the 4.6 range, he’s tall but slight of build and not running a great time is going to hurt his stock.  He came into the combine as a fringe first round pick and now he needs to improve at his pro day just to stay in the second round conversation.

S- Not a lot to say here, Kenny Vaccaro solidified himself as the best safety prospect on the board.  Matt Elam was good but he’s not big enough to overtake Vaccaro.

If you have been wondering why I have only written one blog in the past few months this is why.  I have been watching videos of draft prospects and going over NFL teams needs and preparing to write this mock draft.  This is the sports thing I love the most and I like to be well informed about it.  It is near and dear to me and I’ve put a lot of time into this so I hope you enjoy it.  This is just the first one and it won’t likely be the last and to say this is subject to change would be an understatement.

My First 2013 NFL Mock Draft (Pre Scouting Combine)

This Mock Draft is not based on any knowledge of what teams are thinking it is based on a combination of what I think teams will do and what I think they should do, if only they would take my advice.  

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel   OT   Texas A&M

Somebody has to be picked first and there isn’t a QB worthy of the first round this year let alone worthy of the first pick (don’t worry QB’s will still get drafted in the first round).  When there isn’t a QB worth taking two positions stand out LT and pass rusher and since the Chiefs play a 3-4 defense a traditional DE isn’t what they need and they have Tamba Hali and Justin Houston at OLB.  Their starting LT is Branden Albert who is a free agent that the Chiefs may franchise tag but it doesn’t matter because you can never have too many good linemen.  Joeckel is the best value at an important position and a safe pick.

Possible dumb choice: Any QB like Geno Smith or Matt Barkley (seriously you should have grabbed a QB last year).

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14):  Damontre Moore   DE   Texas A&M

Yep Johnny Manziel won the Heisman at Texas A&M and now two Aggies go 1 and 2 in the draft no wonder they were the only team that beat Alabama last year.  Moore was the pass rusher that stepped into the shoes of Von Miller and he did an excellent job, he isn’t like Miller because he is more of a DE than an OLB but that is exactly what the Jaguars need.  The Jags pass rush is abysmal and that is putting it nicely.  At the moment Moore is in the discussion with other DE’s like Ezekiel Ansah (BYU) and Bjoern Werner (FSU) and I guarantee Ansah is about to light up the Combine with his freakish athleticism but I like Moore better overall and while the Jags may want to swing for the fences that defense needs a solid double not a strike out.

Possible dumb choice: Again grabbing a QB would be stupid even if the new GM and coach aren’t sold on Gabbert (and no one would blame them) you have time to wait until the next round or better yet until 2014.

3.  Oakland Raiders (4-12):  Bjoern Werner   DE   Florida St.

The Raiders were second to last in sacks last season (yep the Jaguars were the worst) and luckily for them the top of this draft is flush with pass rushing DE’s.  If Al Davis were still alive and making this choice than the athletic freak Ansah would be my guess but GM Reggie McKenzie is smarter than that.  Werner hasn’t been playing football that long (neither has Ansah) so he is just scratching the surface of his abilities.

Possible dumb choice: Grabbing one of the athletic freaks like Ansah or Dion Jordan (Oregon) or Barkevious Mingo (LSU), Werner is the safer pick.  One of the reasons these teams keep picking at the top of the draft is because they miss on their high choices and don’t get production (can you say Darrius Heyward-Bey).

 

4.  Philadelphia Eagles (4-12):  Star Lotulelei   DT   Utah

I really want to give the Eagles an OT here but four is too high for Eric Fisher and there isn’t really an offensive lineman worth this slot.  Lotulelei is a beast and DT is a position of need for the Eagles, Cullen Jenkins isn’t getting any younger and they need a running mate for last year’s pick Fletcher Cox.  Lotulelei also is a big body in the middle that will help keep their LB’s clean and that will help their run defense more than anything.

Possible dumb choice:  Eric Fisher OT from Central Michigan is going to get drafted higher than he should because he’s the next best OT but if he gets pushed up to #4 it is a mistake, he’s good but he’s not that good.

5.  Detroit Lions (4-12):  Dee Milliner   CB   Alabama

Every mock draft has the Lions taking a DE because Cliff Avril is a free agent and Kyle Vanden Bosch was released but for years mock drafts have had the Lions taking CB’s in the first round and they never did and it has caught up to them.  If Moore or Werner were still on the board I would say yes grab them because they can make an immediate difference but Milliner is also the only CB that can make that same impact at his position.  CB is a fairly deep position but so is DE and I would rather have Milliner and whatever DE I can get in round two than one of the DE left now and a second round CB.

Possible dumb choice:  Just what I said grabbing a DE now and a CB in round two, you get better value from Milliner now and a DE later.

6.  Cleveland Browns (5-11):  Jarvis Jones   OLB   Georgia

The Browns took a QB (Brandon Weeden) a RB (Trent Richardson) and a WR (Josh Gordon supplemental draft) last year so it is time to pay attention to the defense.  New defensive coordinator Ray Horton (formerly the Cardinals DC) learned his defense in his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers so he knows the value of an OLB in a 3-4 defense.  Jones is going be a freak in a 3-4 defense where he can do what he does best.  The only thing standing between Jarvis Jones and being a top 10 pick is his medical report at the Combine.  He was diagnosed with spinal stenosis when he was an incoming freshman at USC, he transferred to Georgia and was cleared to play and I don’t believe he has had any issues in his time as a Bulldog.

Possible dumb choice: Taking a guy like Ansah or Dion Jordan and trying to make them an OLB in a 3-4, they are better suited to being DE’s, no reason to try to fit a square peg in a round hole.

7.  Arizona Cardinals (5-11):  Eric Fisher   OT   Central Michigan

You’re saying to yourself didn’t he just say fourth was too high for this guy but now he has him going seventh what’s the difference?  The difference is the Eagles don’t need Eric Fisher to solve their LT problems if Jason Peters comes back healthy on the other hand even if Levi Brown comes back healthy the Cardinals would be better off with Fisher at LT.  Stay with me, with the Eagles if Peters comes back he’s a world class LT and they would have to play Fisher out of position at RT.  The Cardinals would be better off plugging Fisher in at LT and moving Brown to RT (where he is a better fit) if he comes back and sliding a guy like Nate Potter inside to guard, one draft pick just improved three spots on your offensive line.  Fisher is the beneficiary of having Jake Matthews (Texas A&M, yes they had two stud OT) and Taylor Lewan (Michigan) both return for their senior years.  Fisher is a good prospect but his value is way up because he is unquestionably the second best OT in this draft and he proved it at the Senior Bowl.

Possible dumb move:  Taking a QB, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley or any of the other guys are not an upgrade over the poo-poo platter of crap the Cardinals trotted out behind center last year.  Do yourselves a favor and trade for either Alex Smith or Matt Flynn and fix your offensive line so your new QB doesn’t get killed.

 

8.  Buffalo Bills (6-10):  Geno Smith   QB   West Virginia

I said no QB was worth a first round pick and I believe that but QB is too important of a position and the Bills have sucked at QB for too long to go another year without drafting one.  Their mistake will be grabbing one in the first round because they just can’t help themselves.  They should wait until the second round and grab Ryan Nassib, he already knows the offense that new Head Coach Doug Marrone brought from Syracuse since that’s where he played.  Smith could turn out to be a pretty decent NFL QB but he won’t if he ends up in Buffalo it’s a bad match.

Possible dumb choice: This one which is how I know they will make it.

9.  New York Jets (6-10):  Ezekiel Ansah   DE   BYU

Okay so as a Patriots fan I’m secretly hoping for this and scared to death of it at the same time.  This kid could be the next Jason Pierre-Paul and he could take the league by storm but there is just as good a chance he’s the next Vernon Gholston (that sound you just heard was the hearts of every Jets fan stopping in unison).  The absolute definition of a boom-or-bust pick Ansah is a track guy that took up football a few years ago and is a speed rusher of epic proportions or he’s a one trick pony that the NFL will chew up and spit out in a couple of years.  The Jets should probably take Barkevious Mingo from LSU because he would transition better to OLB than Ansah but the Jets will fall in love with Ansah’s athleticism at the Combine and figure they can teach him how to play LB.

Possible dumb choice: Yep this one…I hope.

10.  Tennessee Titans (6-10):  Chance Warmack   OG   Alabama

This isn’t a sexy pick and the Titans could use help at DE, WR and maybe a couple of other places but every scout out there knows that Warmack is a special player.  Interior offensive lineman rarely go this high but it is almost certain that Warmack will go in the top 12 picks and who better to draft him then the Mike Munchak coached Titans.  The Titans offense needs to get Chris Johnson back on track so they can cash in on their investment before he runs out of speed.  Steve Hutchinson was signed last year but he didn’t make a difference and Leroy Harris is okay but Warmack would bring talent and attitude to the offensive line and maybe reinvigorate OT’s Dave Stewart and Michael Roos for one last offensive push.

Possible dumb choice:  Passing on a guy who could be the best guard in the NFL for the next decade, don’t over think it.

11.  San Diego Chargers (7-9):  Lane Johnson   OT   Oklahoma

When Fisher and Warmack go off the board before their pick the Chargers will desperately want to trade down because they need to take an offensive lineman but there is no one worth the pick here.  Johnson is a nice tackle but he is a better choice at #21 not #11.  I’m giving the Chargers Johnson because he makes sense and he played well at the Senior Bowl.  Again an OT benefits from Matthews and Lewan returning to school and goes before he probably should.  OT is one of the toughest positions to fill and almost all teams do it through the draft.

Possible dumb choice:  Passing on an OT because they think Johnson isn’t good enough to go this high, they need a LT badly and while I normally preach getting value at your spot they need a LT more than anything and passing on a starting LT would be idiotic.  Phillip Rivers is already damaged from the past few years of poor tackle play and they have to fix it.

12.  Miami Dolphins (7-9):  Corderrelle Patterson   WR   Tennessee

There is no more obvious marriage between team and position than that of the Dolphins and a WR.  You can argue whether Patterson or Keenan Allen from Cal is the better choice but the Dolphins have to take one of the two.  Brian Hartline was the Dolphins top WR last year…nuff said.  Patterson wins the spot over Allen due to his ability to stretch the field, it’s a close call but the Dolphins need a top outside receiver for Ryan Tannehill.

Possible dumb choice:  Not taking a WR, seriously this is the easy one just take one of the two guys.

13.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9):  Desmond Trufant   CB   Washington

The guy nobody was really talking about until the Senior Bowl week when he showed up in Mobile and showed everyone he’s the best cover corner in the draft.  He’s smaller than Milliner but he’s got great coverage instincts.  This is the guy that may shoot up the draft boards as people watch him work out this week and watch more film on him.  CB is a tough position to fill and everybody needs at least 3 of them so his value will go up because while the CB has some depth it isn’t very good at the top.  The Buccaneers were starting EJ Biggers and Leonard Johnson at corner at the end of last year so the value of a good corner is really high in their eyes.

Possible dumb choice:  Drafting anything other than a corner.

14.  Carolina Panthers (7-9):  Sheldon Richardson   DT   Missouri

Two years ago the Panthers wasted two 3^rd round picks on two defensive tackles whose names I can’t even remember now and they haven’t had a good DT since Kris Jenkins .  They have a couple of good DE’s and a great new MLB Luke Kuechly who would appreciate some help in the middle of the defense.

Possible dumb choice:  Not protecting your future All-Pro MLB Kuechly with some beef at DT.

15.  New Orleans Saints (7-9):  Dion Jordan   OLB   Oregon

Dion Jordan is technically a DE but if the Saints draft him they will move the extremely athletic Jordan to OLB in their new 3-4 defense coordinated by Rob Ryan.  I’m less worried about Jordan’s ability to adjust to OLB than Ansah’s because Jordan has played a lot more football and lined up all over the field for the Ducks.  Also taking him at 15 means it’s less of a gamble and I think Jordan could flourish in this type of attacking defense.

Possible dumb choice:  When you’re changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense you have to get pass rushers that are comfortable rushing from off the line of scrimmage so if the Saints don’t get someone like Jordan they will seriously regret it.

16.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1):  Keenan Allen   WR   California

Whether the Rams re-sign Danny Amendola or not they have to get Sam Bradford some weapons.  Allen is a 6-3 210 lb. stud who can stretch the field and will make life easier for Bradford and for Amendola.  The Rams have other needs especially on the offensive line but they have another first round pick coming up an I think Allen is too valuable to let fall because there is a bit of a drop-off at WR after him where as there are a few more OL that will still be available.

Possible dumb choice:  Grabbing a OT too high here and then having to settle for a lesser talent at WR later, Allen is too good to miss out on.

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8):  Jesse Williams   DT   Alabama

It ain’t sexy but it’s what the Steelers do.  Casey Hampton is 35 years old and he can’t play forever which means the Steelers need a replacement at nose tackle.  Williams is a big man with a lot of strength and was a rock in the middle of Alabama’s National Championship defense.  One thing you can count on from the Steelers is they will go with the guy that fits their team the best and Williams is a blue collar lunch pail type of player that the city will embrace.

Possible dumb choice:  The Steelers won’t screw this up, they may opt for Jonathan Hankins or John Jenkins but whichever one they choose will end up being very good.

18.  Dallas Cowboys (8-8):  Datone Jones   DE   UCLA

The Cowboys are making the strangest transition on defense of any team this year going from the attacking 3-4 style of Wade Phillips and Rob Ryan to the Tampa-2 style of Monte Kiffin.  Kiffin is a great coach but talk about fitting a square peg into a round hole.  The best players on the Cowboys defense are LB’s Demarcus Ware, Sean Lee, and Bruce Carter and CB’s Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr and all of them will be taken out of their positions of comfort.  Ware is an OLB not a DE, either Lee or Carter will have to move to OLB and Claiborne and Carr are both better man-to-man cover guys who will likely be playing too much zone.  One thing the Cowboys will need to do this transition is defensive linemen and with Ware likely manning one DE spot they will need a stout DE on the other end and Jones fits the bill.

EXTREMELY Stupid Move:  Changing to a defense that none of your personnel fit.

19.   New York Giants (9-7):  Barkevious Mingo   DE   LSU

Almost everyone sees the Giants grabbing a TE and yes they could use a young one but this is a team that has built its reputation on its pass rush and Osi Umenyiora is at the end of his time with the organization and Justin Tuck isn’t getting any younger.  Jason Pierre-Paul needs a running mate at DE and Mingo brings a lot of athleticism just like JPP.  I really wanted to give this team a LB like Kevin Minter but the Giants understand getting value in their draft picks and MLB just don’t rate that highly.

Possible dumb choice:  Not seeing one happening here because if they grab Minter or Zach Ertz the TE from Stanford they are still getting good value at this spot.

20.  Chicago Bears (10-6):  DJ Fluker   OT   Alabama

The Bears have to draft offensive linemen and yes I mean men as in more than one.  Jay Cutler will not survive another year behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  This team is doing a serious disservice to the skill position talent (i.e. Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall) by not protecting their QB and letting their offense run at full strength.  Fluker is a beast of a human being and while he may be best suited to play RT he will have every opportunity to win the LT job because he would be better than anyone on the roster at the moment.

Possible dumb choice:  Anyone that isn’t an O-lineman.  Whether they grab Fluker or his Alabama line-mate Barrett Jones or North Carolina OG Jonathan Cooper they must get blockers for Cutler.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals (10-6):  Kevin Minter   LB   LSU

Minter is not a household name but scouts and GM’s know him.  Minter is a tackling machine and a natural MLB.  The Bengals have questions at LB with Rey Maualuga and Manny Lawson possibly departing.  Minter could step right in and start at MLB and may be a better all-around player than Maualuga.  Minter is the best of a solid group of MLB in the draft and the Bengals need multiple players at this position so grabbing the best one in the group is a good start.

Possible dumb choice:  They could take Manti Te’o, whom I like as a player, but he was duped for several years by a guy pretending to be a woman on-line so maybe he’s not so smart hence he’s the “dumb” choice.

22.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (traded from Washington):  Barrett Jones  OL   Alabama

The forgotten yet most accomplished member of the Alabama Crimson Tide offensive line.  Coming into this draft everyone likes to talk about Chance Warmack being this great guard who should go really high and about DJ Fluker this massive tackle that can just manhandle people but its Jones that was the heart and soul of that line.  Jones played tackle and center and won both the Outland trophy at LT in 2011 and the Rimington trophy in 2012 at center.  The Rams can just draft Jones and figure out where to play him later because he will excel wherever they put him.

Possible dumb choice:  Panicking if they lose out on Fluker and not grabbing the next best OL, give Bradford help on the line so your offense can work.

23.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6):  Jonathan Hankins   DT   Ohio St.

Everyone is giving the Vikings a WR in the first round and if Keenan Allen or Corderrelle Patterson falls this far than I say go for it but if not than reaching for a Tavon Austin over a DT like Hankins would be a mistake.  Kevin Williams is no spring chicken and the rest of the interior defensive line leaves something to be desired.  Hankins is young and needs some seasoning but he’s got talent coming out his ears and could be the anchor to your defensive line for the next 7-8 years like Williams has been since he entered the league.

Possible dump choice:  Grabbing a WR not named Patterson or Allen.  Unless they trade Percy Harvin (which would be stupid) and decide to replace him with Tavon Austin then taking a WR here would be a mistake.

24.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5):  Xavier Rhodes   CB   Florida St. 

A 6-1 217 lb. corner is big and physical and the Colts could use some help in the secondary.  What they really need is a 3-4 OLB pass rusher for Chuck Pagano’s defense but there isn’t one sitting here that is a good value at this point so the next best thing is the third best cornerback in this draft, not a bad consolation prize at #24.  Rhodes fits a need and is the right value here.

Possible dumb choice:  Taking a DE like Alex Okafor or Sam Montgomery and trying to make them into an OLB or reaching for an OLB that doesn’t warrant this spot.

25.  Seattle Seahawks (11-5):  Sharrif Floyd   DT   Florida

The Seahawks could very well go for a DE to improve their pass rush or a TE or WR to improve their offense but Floyd is too good of a value at this point and the Seahawks may lose Alan Branch to free agency.  A lot of scouts love Floyd but I don’t think there is a consensus about where he will go, if someone falls in love with him he could go in the top 10 but that would be pushing it in my opinion.  This feels like the right place for him in the draft and a team that may really need him.

Possible dumb choice:  Drafting Bruce Irvin a round too soon…oh wait that was the dumb move the Seahawks did last year.  Irvin could be a nice pass rusher but the middle of the first round last year was way too high for a one trick pony like Irvin.

26.  Green Bay Packers (11-5):  Kenny Vaccaro   S   Texas

I would love to give the Packers a RB here to fix all of their RB problems but I’m not sold on any RB being worthy of a first round pick and I’m not sure there is a clear cut top RB in this draft which means you can get a guy in the second or even third round who has as good a chance to help you as a guy in the first round.  Vaccaro is the top safety prospect in this draft and the Packers just let go of Charles Woodson meaning they need help in secondary.  Vaccaro is way too valuable to let slip much farther and fills a big need for Packers defense.

Possible dumb choice:  Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard or any other RB in the first round.  There are some solid backs but why spend a first round pick on either of those guys when you can grab a Stepfan Taylor or a Joseph Randle later and get just as much production.

27.  Houston Texans (12-4):  Tavon Austin   WR   West Virginia

Andre Johnson proved this year he is still a stud WR but he won’t last forever and the Texans haven’t had a good second receiver in their history.  Austin would be a great complement underneath to Johnson going over the top.  Austin isn’t as big as DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson or Robert Woods from USC but he could work the slot very effectively, think Victor Cruz complementing Hakeem Nicks for the Giants.

Possible dumb choice:  Not sure there is one here for Houston because their needs match up with this draft slot pretty well whether they grab a WR or go for a NT like John Jenkins or maybe they grab a safety like Eric Reid.

28.  Denver Broncos (13-3):  Kawann Short   DT   Purdue

The Broncos are likely to lose three veteran DT’s in free agency this year so it is time to replenish.  Short likely won’t be the only DT they take in this draft but he’s a pretty good place to start.  Short played for a Purdue team that wasn’t all that good but he is a very good player and well worth a first round pick.  If the Broncos take him and pair him with last year’s draft pick Derek Wolfe they could have a pretty solid duo in the middle of their defensive line.

Possible dumb choice:  This team proved last year that their only real hole was at QB and they ably filled that spot with the return of a healthy Peyton Manning.  My only concern for the Broncos is with LT Ryan Clady who is a free agent.  Manning needs a good body guard and I suspect the Broncos will take care of Clady either with a new deal or with the franchise tag.

29.  New England Patriots (12-4):  Matt Elam   S   Florida

This pick would take care of two things for the Patriots; their annual draft a defensive back and hope he’s better than the guys you already have pick and Bill Belichick’s annual drafting of a guy from Florida, two birds one stone.  Elam is a nice prospect and since Patrick Chung has not panned out the Patriots need help at safety.  It’s a toss-up between Elam and Eric Reid from LSU as to who is the next best safety after Vacarro but I’m going with Elam because of Belichick’s affinity for Florida guys.

Possible dumb choice:  Taking Jonathan Banks the CB from Mississippi St. after years of taking guys like Devin McCourty and Deon Butler the Patriots should refrain from grabbing a tall lanky corner with “potential”, it never works out.

30.  Atlanta Falcons (13-3):  Zach Ertz   TE   Stanford

They should probably take a DE like Alex Okafor from Texas I mean you can only trot out John Abraham’s corpse for so many decades before it’s time to move on but even if they talk Tony Gonzalez out of retiring it’s not a long term solution.  Ertz is too great of a value to fall much farther and if Gonzalez is back it would make for a ridiculous two TE set.

Possible dumb choice:  Passing on a TE the caliber of Ertz for a decent pass rusher like Okafor or Sam Montgomery of LSU.

31.  San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1):  Margus Hunt   DE   SMU

Who?  Yeah, that’s what everyone says but remember this is the team that took AJ Jenkins last year in the first round.  There is usually someone in the first round that no one sees coming and the only reason I give it to the 49ers is because they run a 3-4 defense with a really good DE named Justin Smith but Smith is coming off an injury and heading towards his 12^th year in the league.  They need to get a future replacement and Hunt is 6-7 280 lbs. and looks like a good candidate to be a DE in a 3-4 defense.  He was starting to get some mention before the Senior Bowl and then he struggled a bit at the Senior Bowl and the shine came off a little.  Needless to say the 49ers are coming off a Super Bowl appearance and can afford to take a shot on a guy that may only fit their team needs.  They just have to hope that Hunt can make more of an impact than Jenkins did which shouldn’t be hard since Jenkins made no impact whatsoever.

Possible dumb choice:  Yes this is a possible dumb choice and missing on back-to-back first round picks can put a team in a bad position down the road but the 49ers believe in their system and believe in their coach so they are willing to take the chance.

32.  Baltimore Ravens (10-6):  Manti Te’o   LB   Notre Dame

It’s too easy, Te’o going to the Ravens to replace future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis, no way Ozzie Newsome gets this lucky again.  In 1996 Lewis was drafted #26 overall by the Ravens and the rest is history.  Te’o has his flaws but if he goes to a team with a solid defensive line and the right scheme to hide some of his deficiencies he can be a star.  While his little episode with the fake girlfriend might give his future teammates some fun material to start with Te’o is a natural leader like Lewis and NFL players understand there are people out there trying to take advantage of them and will side with Te’o.

Possible dumb choice:  This might be it and I’ve gone back and forth on whether or not the Ravens should grab Te’o to replace Lewis or Eric Reid to replace their other defense stalwart Ed Reed.

Other players that could go in the first round but I didn’t put in this mock draft.

QB Matt Barkley USC- If another QB goes in the first round it will be Barkley and most likely he will go in the first round because teams need QB’s.  If he doesn’t go in the top 10 then someone will jump back into the end of the first round to grab him.

RB Eddie Lacy Alabama- I like Lacy he is a big bruising back with good feet but he played on a great team and I’m not sure if it was all him or his offensive line.  He isn’t so much better than the rest of the RB group so he didn’t get taken here.

RB Giovani Bernard North Carolina- The other RB that has first round potential but again he isn’t so far ahead that you have to take him in the first round.

TE Tyler Eifert Notre Dame- Love Eifert as a stretch-the-seam TE down the middle but he’s lacking as a blocker which puts him behind Ertz and I don’t see two TE’s going in this first round.

OG Jonathan Cooper North Carolina- Really like Cooper and he’s the second best guard behind Warmack but guards are less valued in the draft unless they are as good as Warmack.

DE Alex Okafor Texas- Okafor is a good DE but he isn’t as valuable as the guys that went ahead of him.  He could sneak into the end of the first round and I won’t be the least bit surprised especially if Atlanta grabs him.

LB Arthur Brown Kansas St.- The only reason he isn’t a first rounder is because OLB in a 4-3 defense don’t have the value of other positions but Brown will be a second round pick and start for someone immediately and that team will be very happy with the results.

LB Alec Ogletree Georgia- Talent wise Ogletree should be a top 15 pick but a previous suspension at Georgia and a recent DUI arrest just prior to the Combine are going to make teams nervous.  If he can straighten himself out then the team that grabs him at the beginning of the second round is going to have one amazing LB on their hands.

CB Jonathan Banks Mississippi St.- I like Banks and he may make the first round just because CB is such a valued position but there is something missing.  I haven’t been able to put my finger on it yet but I don’t like him enough to put him far enough ahead of guys like Jordan Poyer, Logan Ryan or David Amerson to go in the first round.

S Eric Reid LSU- Reid is a good looking safety and he could easily make the first round especially if the Ravens want him as Ed Reed’s replacement.

 

Okay so this is going to be the quick hits version of The Hott Read.  I cannot seem to sit down and write out anything lately so this is the best I can do.

-The Manti Te’o situation.  The most ridiculous sports story since Tyson bit off Holyfield’s ear had me laughing until it hurt.  After everything that we have heard here’s my conclusion…this is totally the fault of the coeds at Notre Dame.  Ladies you have failed.  How does the captain of the Notre Dame football team and runner-up for the Heisman end up dating on-line?  Women of Notre Dame you should be as offended by this as I am disappointed in you.  You’re telling me he had to go on-line and find a fake woman from Stanford to date, next you’ll tell me the starting QB at Alabama is dating a girl from Auburn…oh wait…well at least she’s real and smokin’.

-The Super Bowl.  A power outage saved the Super Bowl.  It wasn’t much of a game until Baltimore’s momentum was unplugged during the power outage at the Super Dome.  My favorite remark came courtesy of Twitter “Oh shit, here comes Bane.”  I really thought Kaepernick was going to pull it off and he almost did.  No, it wasn’t pass interference on that last pass play for the 49ers but it was defensive holding. The deference here is you call holding which gives the 49ers half the distance to the goal and replay the down instead of a new set of downs. There is a difference between letting them play and not doing your job. The 49ers did a good enough job of screwing up that whole scenario with the play calling so giving them another down may not have changed the outcome but they deserved a fair shot and there is a reason defensive holding is against the rules.

*Correction* As my friend Bill pointed out defensive holding also results in an automatic first down, that should have been the call.

-Iowa Hawkeye football.  February 6^th was National Signing day for high school recruits across the nation and the only thing less impressive than the Iowa recruiting class was the Hawkeyes last season.  Don’t get me wrong Iowa is far from one great recruiting class turning things around but Iowa went into last season with verbal commitments from two 4-star recruits and on signing day neither of those guys signed with Iowa.  My biggest concern is the lack of any DE in the class.  Iowa’s pass rush has been pretty pathetic the last couple of seasons and Iowa didn’t sign a single DE recruit, there is always the possibility that someone changes positions but there isn’t an impact recruit coming in at DE and Iowa needs impact at that position.  The other notable thing about this class is the 5 WR’s Iowa signed.  Four freshmen and a JUCO transfer probably means the coaching staff isn’t too impressed with the guys already on campus, I’m glad to know they noticed.  One more quick thing, there are staff changes coming on the Hawkeye coaching staff and I’ll say more when we know who for sure is coming, going and who is coaching what position.  I’m sure Coach Ferentz will have all of that sorted out…by May.

-Iowa Hawkeye basketball.  The good news is that this team is close the bad news is that only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  They are so close to beating good teams it’s scary and unbelievably frustrating.  If they were an average shooting team they would be unbeatable unfortunately they seem to consistently struggle with that.  They have a decent shot at making the NCAA tournament but they have to win all the games they should win down the stretch and hopefully pull off an upset of two, I’m afraid their loss at Purdue is going to end up being their undoing in the eyes of the selection committee.

-So we are now into my favorite time of year leading up to my favorite sporting event of the year…the NFL Draft.  Yep I’m a draft geek and I admit it.  Just so you know I hate Todd McShay only slightly less than I hate Mel Kiper.  I can’t stand Chris Berman hosting the draft on ESPN he has become unbearable and Mike Mayock from the NFL Network is the smartest draft analyst on the planet.  A few things to note this draft is not one that your average NFL fan is going to know anything about because there are no quarterbacks or running backs worth drafting in the first round.  Don’t misunderstand me there are QB’s that will go in the first round but none of them should go that early.  Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon all have a chance to get drafted in the first round but only because so many teams are desperate for QB’s (Arizona, Buffalo and Kansas City to name a few).  If you only pay attention to the draft to see which Hawkeyes get drafted let me save you a few days, only Micah Hyde is getting drafted it will take an act of God for anyone else to go (sorry James Ferentz, you’ll get a shot but you are too small) and I’ll save all the scouts out there some time James Vandenberg and Keenan Davis are not worth your time.

If you have any draft questions for me just ask.

College Football

Mercifully the Iowa Hawkeye football season has ended and I’m fairly certain we can all agree that 4-8 sucks.  I’ve covered the Kirk Ferentz thing as much as I care to at this point and since it doesn’t look like there is any sort of movement regarding the staff I’d like to talk about the silly season, it’s coaching carousel time in college football.  There are already quite a few big time jobs open, some medium sized jobs and other smaller jobs which I probably won’t talk about.  Here are some thoughts.

Auburn:  Fired Gene Chizik two years after he won a national championship, couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.  I’ve never been a Chizik fan, mostly because I think he’s arrogant and yes partly because he was ISU’s coach, but I also believe he cheated to win the national championship.  I have no proof and who knows if the NCAA will ever find any reason to strip Auburn of that national title but if they ever do it will surprise me as much as the day the NCAA strips Kentucky of their basketball championship under John Calipari.  Talk about “what have you done for me lately”, granted Chizik did just lead Auburn to the worst record ever two years removed from a national title and he went winless in the SEC but damn that’s a quick trigger.

Rumored replacements:  Come on this is so obvious who should get this job.  Bobby Petrino.  Auburn once tried to replace Tommy Tuberville with Petrino when he was at Louisville and this is a match made in heaven.  A guy who once left the Atlanta Falcons before completing his first year to the school that fired a national championship coach two years later, what could possibly go wrong?  This has to happen these two deserve each other.

Tennessee:  Fired Derek Dooley after three seasons after he replaced the one-and-done Lane Kiffin.  How bad has this job gotten that the obvious front runner David Cutcliffe chose to stay at Duke instead?  The good old days of Phillip Fulmer seem like a distant memory and that was only four years ago.

Rumored replacements:  They are lucky this is an SEC job and there are only 14 of those out there.  The usual suspects as far as SEC replacement coaches are Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, Louisville head coach Charlie Strong and Arkansas St. head coach Gus Malzahn and these three should just get together and decide who gets which job.  My favorite rumor for Tennessee is Jon Gruden, I will be absolutely stunned if Gruden takes a college job.  Maybe it would be a good thing because his intense style might play better to guys that only have to put up with it for 4-5 years and then they are gone.  My question is does Gruden really want to put up with boosters?  Um…hell no.  Recruiting?  No way.  And this isn’t Tennessee 10 years ago you actually have to recruit and convince kids to come there now.

Arkansas:  Fired Bobby Petrino in the spring for his “spring fling” and hired John L. Smith who proceeded to take a preseason top 5 team and go 4-8.  Turns out that 10 month contract they gave Smith was two months longer than necessary.  Time to right the ship.

Rumored replacements: Gus Malzahn should be the first call and Charlie Strong should be the second or vice versa.  These two are options 1 and 1A first guy to say yes can have the job.  Gus Malzahn is a high school coaching legend in the state and won a national championship at Auburn as the offensive coordinator for Cam Newton.  He brings instant credibility in the state and stability because he would not be looking to go anywhere else.  Charlie Strong is from the state of Arkansas and has proven to be a fantastic coach not just as head coach at Louisville but also as a defensive coordinator at Florida.  The fallback option should these two turn it down should be UAB head coach Garrick McGee.

Kentucky: Wait I said I wasn’t going to talk about the smaller jobs. Next.

Purdue:  This is sort of a medium job.  They fired Danny Hope after he went 6-6 this year.  I never understood why they hired him in the first place.  Was it because he looked like a thinner version of Joe Tiller?  I think it was the mustache.  Here’s the thing, they hired Hope before Tiller left and made him the “coach-in-waiting” until Tiller retired, has this ever worked?  In the history of coaching has this ever panned out?   Is Jimbo Fisher at Florida St the best success story (the only success story) and they had to force Bowden out to get Fisher into the job so they didn’t lose him if I recall correctly.

Rumored replacements:  The most likely legitimate candidate is Northern Illinois’s Dave Doeren.  He was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin before taking the Northern Illinois job so he knows the Big Ten.  The Boilermakers could do worse, oh yeah, they already have.  The dark horse for this job should be Fresno St. head coach Tim DeRuyter, he deserves a better job.  Also Michigan St. defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi should get a look.

California: Fired Jeff Tedford after 11 seasons.  Okay so he went 3-9, this guy built Cal football but everyone saw this coming.  Another “what have you done for me lately” firing except he never won a national title.  Tedford is the best coach Cal has ever had; seriously name another coach in Cal history.  Some team is going to get very lucky hiring Tedford to take over their program.

Rumored replacements:  Who wants this dead end job?  How about a couple of guys with dead end jobs in smaller conferences, Tim DeRuyter from Fresno St. or Mike MacIntyre from San Jose St.  Good luck gentlemen you have to compete with USC and a rejuvenated UCLA for the best California talent and your chief rival Stanford happens to be on a roll.

Colorado:  They fired Jon Embree, best career move ever…for him.  This job has turned into a black hole.  Supposedly their first call was to Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun, do yourself a favor Coach Calhoun hang up.

North Carolina State:  They fired Tom O’Brien and they apparently want James Franklin from Vanderbilt, NC State is not a step up from Vanderbilt at the moment. Hang tight Coach Franklin there will be a better opportunity for you than NC State.

Boston College:  Fired Frank Spaziani, maybe they should rehire Tom O’Brien.

There are other open jobs but I don’t really know anything about or care to know about UTEP, Idaho or whichever directional Michigan school’s coaching searches.  I do know that there are some good smaller conference head coaches like Gus Malzahn, Dave Doeren and Tim DeRuyter who deserve to move to major conference jobs.  There are up-and-coming coordinators like Kirby Smart and Mark Stoops who will get interviews and possibly job offers and there are guys like Charlie Strong and James Franklin that coach in major conferences but deserve a shot at big time schools.  I called this the silly season before because inevitably someone will make a move that is laughable.  Last year it was Arizona St. hiring Todd Graham to his fourth or so “dream job”, this year I can only hope it is Auburn hiring Paul Rhoads to replace Gene Chizik just so I can watch the Auburn faithful lose their minds.  It should be fun watching Colorado fumble around trying to get someone to take that job; I think Rick Neuheisel is available.  I hope Kentucky realizes they are an SEC job in name only and I hope good coaches realize that NC State, Colorado and California are not the premier jobs their Athletic Directors are making them out to be.  I love the ridiculous rumors, Gruden to any college job, Rex Ryan to Kentucky (yep I read that somewhere) Bob Stoops to Iowa (wait that’s more wishful thinking than rumor).  The funny thing about ridiculous rumors is that once in a while Charlie Weis actually takes the Kansas job.  Let the carousel spin.

Hawkeye Football

Fourteen years is a long time.  You can become a doctor in less than 14 years.  You can start grade school and graduate from high school in less than 14 years.  I’ve been out of high school longer than 14 years.  In 14 years the game of college football has changed and unfortunately Kirk Ferentz hasn’t changed with it.  I don’t want to disrespect the job Ferentz has done at Iowa, I was here when he took over and I know how far down the program was when Hayden Fry left and my final year in college was 2002 when Iowa won a share of the Big Ten title and played in the Orange Bowl.  I’ve seen the highs and the lows up close but even back in 1998 and 1999 this program wasn’t this low.  Back then there was a sense that things were going to get better, a new coaching staff, new players and an optimism that things could be turned around.  You won’t find any of that in Iowa City right now.  Fourteen years is a long time to coach in one place especially in today’s game.  The era of Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno coaching in the same place for decades is gone, like it or not that is reality.  Look around college football and Ferentz isn’t the only example of people itching for something new.  Mack Brown has been feeling the heat at Texas the last few years and even Bob Stoops at Oklahoma hears grumbling that things are stale in Norman and both of those guys have National Championships.  Blame it on the instant gratification society we live in today or the over blown sense of entitlement fans feel when they buy tickets to the games and donate money to the athletic departments, whatever the cause it is the sports world we live in.  I want Kirk Ferentz to go out on top but that just doesn’t seem realistic.  It is, however, equally as unrealistic to think the University of Iowa is going to come up with the $20 million it would take to buy out the remaining years of Ferentz’s contract and fire him after this abysmal season.  He’s going to get more time because the University is not going to fire a good man because of a bad season the real problem is that this season is becoming closer to the norm for the Hawkeyes than the two Orange Bowl seasons we have experienced in the past 14 years.  The issue I have with Coach Ferentz is that not only is he ultra-conservative in his approach but he refuses to evolve with the college game.  Offenses in college football are now run by coaches like Urban Meyer, Chip Kelly and Dana Holgerson, the spread offense is not a gimmick and it’s not going away.  It is the standard not the exception.  When Ferentz took over at Iowa the only coach that had heard the phrase “spread offense” was Joe Tiller and now the revolution has taken over and Ferentz is left in its wake.  Ferentz seems determined to prove himself right by sticking with a quarterback that is historically bad but I can tell you that if you can’t beat Purdue you probably aren’t going to beat Michigan or Nebraska.  Vandenberg was only a part of the problem against Purdue instead of the entire problem like the previous few weeks.  The defense has been a major disappointment the past few weeks after starting the season pretty well.  The defense lacks talent on the line and I’m fairly certain I’ve beaten that dead horse more than a few times in this blog.  Unfortunately poor line play on defense leads to tough days for the linebackers and asking too much of the secondary in coverage.  The struggles on the offensive side of the ball aren’t just about a lack of talent at quarterback and wide receiver (although those are huge problems) or the new offensive system.  It’s not just about poor decisions by the QB or the revolving door at RB.  It isn’t just about throwing a 2 yard pass on 4^th and 3.  It’s not just about punting with 4 minutes to go in a game when you haven’t demonstrated once that your defense can get you the ball back.  It is all of it.  I can go back to last season’s loss at Iowa St.  I know I don’t want to talk about it either but stick with me.  Iowa couldn’t stop Steele Jantz all game long and yet with the game tied and Iowa getting the ball back with about a minute and a half left in the game the Hawkeyes kneeled on it and played for overtime.  When asked why he didn’t try to score on the last possession Ferentz said he thought the defense had a good chance of stopping them and we could win in overtime.  What game was Ferentz watching?  The Hawkeyes couldn’t stop Jantz when they had 80 yards behind them why would he think giving Jantz the ball at the 25 was a good idea.  That was the beginning of the end for me with Ferentz.  I didn’t even know it at the time but I’ve come around to the fact that Ferentz just seems to be going through the motions.  Every press conference is the same coach speak regardless of the outcome of the game.  He seems oblivious to the most blatant problems and he refuses to even engage about them.  It is one thing as a coach to not throw your players under the bus but willful blindness is unacceptable.  The critics would say to me “How many college football games have you coached? What do you know?” and they are right I have never coached a football game but Kirk Ferentz has spent 14 years coaching in the Big Ten and it doesn’t seem to be doing him a whole lot of good at the moment.  As with any relationship if it is going to end ugly the best thing to do is end it quickly unfortunately I believe it is going to end ugly but not quickly.  I hope beyond hope that Kirk Ferentz has an epiphany during the offseason when he’s sitting at home over the holidays instead of going to a bowl game.  I hope he realizes that college football today has changed and he has to change with it or get out of the way.  Otherwise I hope that when his good friend Kansas City Chiefs GM Scott Pioli gets fired he lands a new job with a team that needs a coach and he calls up his old buddy Kirk Ferentz with an offer he can’t refuse.  Neither of these scenarios have a high enough likelihood to make me feel better.  Fourteen years may be too long to coach at one place and I’m afraid we are going to find out how bad year fifteen can be.