2013 NFL Draft Analysis

I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division.  I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

31.  Travis Frederick   C

47.  Gavin Escobar   TE

74.  Terrence Williams   WR

80.  JJ Wilcox   SS

114.  B.W. Webb   CB

151.  Joseph Randle   RB

185.  DeVonte Holloman   OLB

Immediate Impact:  C Travis Frederick

I had the same reaction as most people when Travis Frederick was drafted in the first round.  What?  Don’t get me wrong Travis Frederick is going to start at center from day one so his impact will be immediate but this is not a value pick.  The fact that Frederick will start right away says more about the Cowboys lack of talent on the offensive line than it does about him.

Best Value:  WR Terrence Williams

Williams is a fantastic talent and he has caught a lot of balls over the past few years at Baylor.  He’s got good size and a lot of experience so he should transition quickly to the NFL and he had the potential to be a first round pick so getting him in the third round was great value.  If Miles Austin’s injury setbacks continue Williams offers the Cowboys someone who can line up opposite of Dez Bryant and give them a real threat.

Sleeper:  RB Joseph Randle

He isn’t the biggest or the fastest guy but he gets the job done.  I really like Randle and as a fifth round pick I absolutely love Randle.  DeMarco Murray is the starter but as we all know the likelihood of him completing a season healthy is not good.  Randle is the type of back that doesn’t wow you in a workout but when you watch him play he is always getting yards and keeping the chains moving.

Overall Analysis:

Frederick wasn’t rated as a first rounder and was barely a second round guy.  The next center to go off the board was Brian Schwenke in the fourth round and he would start right away for the Cowboys too.  The defenders of this pick say that if you get starter in the first round that’s a good thing but here’s why it isn’t.  The Cowboys could have gotten Frederick with their second round pick which means they could have used their first rounder on someone like SS Matt Elam or OT Menelik Watson.  If they had drafted either of those two plus Frederick that would be two new starters instead of one and if Frederick had somehow gone off the board before their second round pick they could have taken Brian Schwenke later and still ended up with a starting center.  The reason you don’t reach for a player is that if you can get that player or an equivalent player later than you hurt your overall team depth by not taking the best player.  I do like the Gavin Escobar pick because he’s good and Jason Witten can’t play forever.  Terrence Williams, B.W. Webb and Joseph Randle were all good picks and good value.  My major concern overall with this draft is that the Cowboys needed help on the offensive and defensive line and they only got Travis Frederick.  One offensive lineman and no defensive linemen is a curious move for this team.

New York Giants:

19.  Justin Pugh   OT

49.  Jonathan Hankins   DT

81.  Damontre Moore   DE

110.  Ryan Nassib   QB

152.  Cooper Taylor   SS

225.  Eric Herman   OG

253.  Michael Cox   RB

Immediate Impact:  OT Justin Pugh

The early run on offensive linemen at the top of the draft pushed the value of a few players up namely Pugh and Kyle Long who were drafted back-to-back.  I’m not a huge fan of Pugh as I didn’t see him standing out as a first round talent.  However, the Giants need help on the offensive line and even if Pugh can’t win a job at OT he could win a spot at OG.  The Giants envision him at OT and while he may be better suited for OG this team did start David Diehl at LT for many years so Pugh has a shot with this team.

Best Value:  DE Damontre Moore

I can’t believe the rest of the NFL allowed the Giants to draft a guy with this much natural pass rush ability.  If there is one place Moore can shine it is with the Giants.  They will teach him and use him in exactly the right manner as to get the absolute best performance out of him.  Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and even Mathias Kiwanuka are proof that the Giants know what they are doing when it comes to pass rushers.

Sleeper:  DT Jonathan Hankins

The only sure thing for the Giants at DT is Linval Joseph as the rest of the depth chart is old, unproven or in flux.  Hankins is a beast of a human being and if they can motivate him to play every down his natural talent will win out over just about anyone.  It is tough to call a second rounder a sleeper but if the Giants can wake him up, so to speak, they will have one more dominate defensive lineman on their hands.

Overall Analysis:

Justin Pugh was drafted too high in my opinion but he meets a serious need and he wouldn’t have been around in the second round for the Giants.  Hankins and Moore were both drafted a round lower than they could have gone so again the Giants do well drafting defensive lineman.  QB Ryan Nassib is nowhere near a need but in the fourth round he was just too much value for them to pass on and even if he never plays a down he is at worst trade bait down the line so the Giants basically drafted a pick in a future draft and they will probably get better than a fourth rounder for him.  My concerns with this draft are that the Giants LB corps isn’t exactly stacked and they didn’t draft a single one and they have had major injury concerns over the past several years at CB and they didn’t get any depth there either.

Philadelphia Eagles

4.  Lane Johnson   OT

35.  Zach Ertz   TE

67.  Bennie Logan   DT

98.  Matt Barkley   QB

136.  Earl Wolff   SS

212.  Joe Kruger   DE

218.  Jordan Poyer   CB

239.  David King   DE

Immediate Impact:  OT Lane Johnson, TE Zach Ertz

Lane Johnson steps in at OT and that should move Todd Herremans back inside to OG, one pick upgrades two spots on the line that is having an immediate impact.  Zach Ertz can be paired with Brent Celek to give Chip Kelly’s offense a nice two TE set.

Best Value:  QB Matt Barkley

I said throughout the draft process that there were no quarterbacks worth a first round pick and people assumed that meant I didn’t like any of the quarterbacks but that simply isn’t true.  I think Barkley has the best chance of being an eventual starter in the NFL but he isn’t going to be ready right away.  However, getting him in the fourth round might be the steal of decade especially for Chip Kelly.  Everyone assumes Kelly needs a mobile QB (even I thought EJ Manuel was his guy) but that isn’t necessarily true.  More importantly for Kelly’s offense is the pace of the offense, getting as many plays in as possible.  Barkley started for four years in a pro-style offense at USC so there isn’t going to be much Kelly can ask that Barkley can’t process.

Sleeper:  CB Jordan Poyer

I easily could have picked Bennie Logan but somehow the Eagles got Poyer in the seventh round of this draft.  I don’t know what happened to drop his value but he was a second or third round talent leading up to the draft.  Kelly knows Poyer from their college days at Oregon and Oregon St. respectively so he knows exactly the type of talent he’s getting.

Overall Analysis:

No one knew exactly what the Eagles were going to do with Chip Kelly as their coach and a new front office structure in place but this draft looks pretty good on paper.  Johnson, Ertz and Bennie Logan will either start or see significant action early and Poyer has a shot to get playing time at CB given the depth chart.  Matt Barkley is in a position to sit and learn if necessary but don’t be surprised if he sees action.  Kelly knows Barkley far better than he knows Michael Vick and Kelly actually knows Nick Foles and Dennis Dixon better too so anything is possible at QB.  The Eagles could use help at SS so Earl Wolff should stick and even Kruger and King can make this team if they prove to be good fits in the new 3-4 defense the Eagles are installing.  This could turn out to be an excellent draft.

Washington Redskins: 

51.  David Amerson   CB

85.  Jordan Reed   TE

119.  Phillip Thomas   FS

154.  Chris Thompson   RB

162.  Brandon Jenkins   DE/OLB

191.  Baccari Rambo   FS

228.  Jawan Jamison   RB

Immediate Impact:  CB David Amerson, FS Phillip Thomas

The Redskins had 21 interceptions as a team last year but more than half of those came from their LB corps.  Amerson and Thomas were ball hawks in college and they should help the secondary become better at takeaways.  Amerson adds some much needed size to the CB depth chart and Thomas brings ball skills to the safety spot.  These two add youth and athleticism to a defensive secondary that is lacking in both.

Best Value:  OLB Brandon Jenkins

This one comes with a caveat; Jenkins’ foot has to be healed up so he can be himself.  Going into last year Brandon Jenkins was the big name DE at Florida St. not Bjoern Werner or Tank Carradine but a foot injury ended his season before it could begin and he became a forgotten man.  His size, athletic ability and skill set make him a great fit at OLB in the Redskins 3-4 defense and he should become a nice situational rusher to complement Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan.

Sleeper:  RB Chris Thompson

Thompson had some durability issues at Florida St. that never allowed him to be the full-time go-to back for the Seminoles but he brings a skillset the Redskins don’t currently have in the back field.  The Redskins found their every down back last year in Alfred Morris but Thompson brings a smaller shiftier back type of presence.  His foot speed and acceleration make a contrast to Morris and make a different type of weapon for RGIII to utilize in the run game and the passing game.

Overall Analysis:

Considering the Redskins didn’t have a 1^st round pick in this draft, after trading it away to get RGIII last year, they did a pretty good job of getting guys that could impact their team.  Amerson, Thomas and Jenkins should all contribute on defense and Thompson has a chance to be an offensive weapon.  TE Jordan Reed is a good pick up and depending on the health of Fred Davis Reed could be a big pick up.  Reed is athletic and talented but not the most experienced TE in the draft.  The Redskins may have found themselves a future gem in Reed and he may become RGIII’s favorite safety valve.  Rambo and Jamison seem like redundant picks considering the selection of both a FS and a RB in earlier rounds but the Redskins need youth and depth after years of bad drafts and free agent spending left their roster aging.  My only concern with this draft is that while Reed and Thompson could be offensive weapons where is the help at WR for RGIII.  Both Terrence Williams and Keenan Allen were available when the Redskins picked in the second round and even Stedman Bailey and Quinton Patton were available later and any of them would have helped the WR corps around RGIII.  The Redskins still won’t have a 1^st round pick next year (yep they gave that one up for RGIII too) so they better hope some good WR’s are available after that next year, Santana Moss can’t play for forever.

 

 

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division.  I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

16. EJ Manuel   QB

41. Robert Woods   WR

46.  Kiko Alonso   ILB

78.  Marquise Goodwin   WR

105.  Duke Williams   SS

143.  Jonathan Meeks   SS

177.  Dustin Hopkins   K

222.  Chris Gragg   TE

Immediate Impact:  WR Robert Woods

Woods is a fantastic talent and the Bills need another receiver opposite Stevie Johnson.  Woods is a great route runner and he will take a lot of pressure off of Johnson and give the Bills the first legitimate #2 WR they have had in quite a while.

Best Value:  WR Robert Woods

Woods could have easily gone in the first round and the Bills got him #41 overall.  He’s ready to contribute from day one and that is great value in the second round.

Sleeper:  WR Marquise Goodwin

Goodwin is the track star out of Texas that could be a scary weapon out of the slot receiver position.  Whether it is Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel lining up at QB having Johnson, Woods and Goodwin means the QB will have some weapons at WR.

Overall Analysis: 

EJ Manuel going #16 overall in the first round was the first real surprise of the draft and this was GM Buddy Nix shooting for the moon.  Manuel has all the physical talent you want in a QB the question is whether or not he can translate that to the field in the NFL.  The good news is that Kevin Kolb is there so Manuel shouldn’t be rushed the bad news is Manuel may be rushed because Kevin Kolb is all that is there.  Kiko Alonso has the inside track on a starting spot at ILB and Duke Williams may surprise and line up with Jarius Byrd at safety before you know it.  My biggest question with this draft is where are the offensive linemen?  The loss of Andy Levitre is big and the right side of the line could have used help too and they didn’t select a single one.

 

Miami Dolphins

3.  Dion Jordan   DE/OLB

54.  Jamar Taylor   CB

77.  Dallas Thomas   OL

93.  Will Davis   CB

104.  Jelani Jenkins   ILB

106.   Dion Sims   TE

164.  Mike Gillislee   RB

166.  Caleb Sturgis   K

250.  Don Jones   SS

Immediate Impact:  DE/OLB Dion Jordan; CB Jamar Taylor

The Dolphins better hope that Jordan gives them the pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake that they are hoping for because they traded up to #3 and passed on OT Lane Johnson to take him.  They have a big hole at LT that Johnson could have filled but they are betting on Jordan being an impact player.  CB Jamar Taylor steps in immediately to fill the hole created by the departure of Sean Smith and he will be a good one.

Best Value:  CB Jamar Taylor

Getting a starting CB in the second round with the 54^th pick is the definition of value.

Sleeper:  ILB Jelani Jenkins; TE Dion Sims

Jenkins is a good ILB with coverage skills so he could make some noise in sub packages.  The Dolphins TE position is thin and newly signed starter Dustin Keller is not known for his blocking.  Sims has always been a tease with his big body and soft hands and if the coaching staff can get him to live up to his potential he can do it all.  He is a big guy that should be a good blocker and he should be a threat down the middle.

Overall Analysis:

The Dolphins are taking their shot at improving their defense by adding Jordan, Taylor and CB Will Davis along with their free agent signings.  Jordan should bring the pass rush and Taylor and Davis should improve their coverage.  My concern is with only the addition of Dallas Thomas at offensive line who takes over at LT for Jake Long.  They can try Thomas there but entrusting the blindside protection of franchise QB Ryan Tannehill to a rookie that is probably better served playing guard is a frightening proposition.  They could try Thomas on the right side and slide Jonathan Martin to LT like last year when Long was hurt but that is still asking Thomas to play tackle.  The best course of action now looks like playing Martin at LT, letting Thomas fight for playing time at guard and signing a veteran free agent like Eric Winston to man the right side.

 

New England Patriots

52.  Jamie Collins   OLB

59.  Aaron Dobson   WR

83.  Logan Ryan   CB

91.  Duron Harmon   SS

102.  Josh Boyce   WR

226.  Michael Buchanan   DE/OLB

235.   Steve Beauharnais   ILB

Immediate Impact:  WR Aaron Dobson

The Patriots better hope that Dobson is an immediate impact WR because they need an outside threat after releasing Brandon Lloyd.  Danny Amendola should be the replacement for Wes Welker and Amendola can do some things on the outside but he is needed in the slot.  Dobson is a big WR from Marshall and hopefully he breaks the streak of bad WR picks the Patriots have been on for quite some time.

Best Value:  CB Logan Ryan

This kid can play.  He lacks top end speed but he could be a very good corner in Bill Belichick’s defense.  The Patriots need help at CB and Ryan has starter potential that they drafted in the third round.

Sleeper:  WR Josh Boyce

The Patriots have a big need at WR and even though Dobson is the big outside guy they need Boyce could come in and make some noise.

Overall Analysis:

Collins is an edge rusher that Belichick will figure out how to use and he can definitely help the pass rush.  Hopefully the improved pass rush will help the secondary along with the addition of Ryan.  The Duron Harmon pick was universally panned and I have to agree there were some good safeties still on the board (Shamarko Thomas, Duke Williams) and Harmon wasn’t expected to go in the third round.

 

New York Jets

9.  Dee Milliner   CB

13.  Sheldon Richardson   DT

39.  Geno Smith   QB

72.  Brian Winters   OG

141.  Oday Aboushi   OT

178.  William Campbell   DT

215.  Tommy Bohanon   FB

Immediate Impact:  CB Dee Milliner

Milliner is the best CB in the draft and he gets to replace the best CB in the league.  No pressure kid.  Milliner allows Kyle Wilson to stay inside covering the slot and that will make him valuable to the Jets defense.

Best Value:  QB Geno Smith

I’m not a big fan of Geno Smith but when you get a starting QB at pick #39 you are getting pretty good value.  Say what you want about the Jets QB situation but Smith will be the guy at some point and my money is on sooner rather than later.  Tim Tebow has already been shown the door and if the Jets have any sense of mercy Mark Sanchez will not be far behind.

Sleeper:  OG Brian Winters

Winters is a third round pick and he probably will end up starting.  Guards don’t get a lot of credit but teams know their value.  It’s hard to see a third round guard making a huge difference but if he becomes a starter that’s a great get.

Overall Analysis:

I love Sheldon Richardson as a player but I don’t like him on this team, with this defense, I just don’t see it working very well.  Maybe he will have a bigger impact next year when a new coaching staff is brought in and they switch to a 4-3 defense where his skills will be better utilized.  No I don’t have a lot of faith that Rex Ryan is going to get this thing turned around and if he doesn’t it is total rebuilding mode time and that starts with a new coaching staff.  Aboushi could possibly help since the Jets’ RT’s are nothing to write home about and he could potentially steal that job.  They got Smith where he should have gone, in the second round, so that’s good value and Milliner and Richardson are very talented players.

 

 

 

My First Round Initial Thoughts

• Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel going 1 and 2 is not too surprising.  Pretty equal in terms of grades and yes the Jaguars do need another tackle.
• The Dolphins make a leap up the draft board which had everyone on the NFL Network set convinced they were coming up for Lane Johnson and then…Dion Jordan.  Jared Odrick isn’t cut out to be a 4-3 DE and Jordan gives Cameron Wake a lot of help.  I really don’t want to like this move but they only gave up a second round pick (they have another one) to move up 9 spots to take a shot on Jordan.  They needed Johnson more but if they make the Branden Albert trade they could be much improved next year.
• If you don’t think the NFL is a passing league look at this; first 6 picks= 3 pass blocker, 3 pass rushers.   And no RB’s in the first round since the 1960’s.
• Dee Milliner falls to the Jets at #9.  I was really hoping the Jets would blow this pick but I really like Milliner.  Luckily the Jets had another pick for me to root against.
• I underestimated the offensive linemen in this draft by a spot.  I said six OL could go in the first 12 picks and they went in the first 11.  Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Cooper, Warmack and Fluker all went.  Glad I made some predictions outside of my mock draft because I went 0-32.  Although outside of some people predicting the Fisher/Joeckel 1-2 thing this draft did not go according to most predictions.
• Another prediction I was right about was the late rising player.  DJ Hayden went to the Raiders #12 overall after they traded down.  Reggie McKenzie got the player he wanted at a spot where he was valued and picked up a pick, he is the anti-Al Davis.
• The Jets had a chance to take one of the two top DT in the draft, Star Lotulelei or Sharrif Floyd, either of whom would have fit their defensive scheme very well.  Instead they selected the 3^rd best DT in the draft Sheldon Richardson.  I like Richardson and the #13 pick is about where he was projected but he isn’t a great schematic fit and there were better players at that position on the board.  Thank you Jets now I’m not so pissed about the Milliner pick.
• The Buffalo Bills had traded down from the 8^th pick (good move there was no one there they wanted) and with the 16^th pick they took their QB of the future (or present)…EJ Manuel.  That groan you hear is a collective groan from Geno Smith (“I’m not the first QB off the board?”), Ryan Nassib (“My college coach picked a different QB?”), Chip Kelly (“damn it I don’t want anybody else”) and finally EJ Manuel (“Not the Bills…”).  This was a little high for Manuel but I give the Bills credit, they traded down and Buddy Nix took a shot.  Manuel is probably the biggest boom or bust QB in the draft (Tyler Bray is a close second but he was never in the 1^st round conversation) and unfortunately he goes to a Bills team whose recent track record with QB’s is atrocious.  Good Luck EJ.
• Jarvis Jones goes the Pittsburgh Steelers…ladies and gentlemen your 2013 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year…hold that thought someone else is going to make a play for that honor in minute…
• The San Francisco 49ers trade up into the Cowboys spot to get S Eric Reid from LSU.  Reid’s draft stock has been up and down like a yo-yo.  He’s pretty good and he’s a very solid replacement for Dashon Goldson.
• Back-to-back offensive linemen; Justin Pugh to the Giants and Kyle Long to the Bears.  Pugh is listed as an OT but might be better suited to guard which is perfect for the Giants because they have made a habit out of turning decent O-linemen into a good unit.  Kyle Long is listed as a Guard but I think they should give him a shot at RT.  He has the athleticism and the demeanor you want at RT.
• Cincinnati took Tyler Eifert…he had to go somewhere…Andy Dalton should be happy.
• The Atlanta Falcons make a move and now my Defensive Rookie of the Year just became my Co-Defensive Rookies of the Year.  Atlanta gets the best cover corner in the draft Desmond Trufant and he instantly becomes a starter on a damn good playoff team.  Sorry Jarvis you are going to have to share that award.
• Sharrif Floyd’s nightmare evening ends as the Minnesota Vikings dream draft begins.   Floyd was widely considered a top 5 talent and no worse than top 10 yet he slides to #23 and the Vikings pounce.  Maybe someday we will know the story why Floyd dropped and while I haven’t been his biggest fan he is serious value here.  The Vikings defensive line just got scary good and the Vikings have Kevin Williams’ eventual replacement.  Their dream continued at #25 when one of the better and more physical CB’s Xavier Rhodes fell into their laps.  A top 15 talent at #25 is fantastic.  Then the Vikings made a bold move and traded back into the end of the first round at #29 and took one of the top WR’s in the draft Corderrelle Patterson from Tennessee.  Pairing Patterson with Greg Jennings means Christian Ponder has no excuses.
• The Texans came the closest to giving me a correct pick in the first round, I had them taking WR Keenan Allen and they took WR DeAndre Hopkins.  So close…I can’t take credit though because everyone had them taking a WR.
• The Patriots proved one of my other predictions half right.  The Pats traded out of the first round but if wasn’t so a team could come back in for a QB it was for the Vikings bold move for a WR.  Is it bad that I was actually hoping my favorite team would trade out of the first round because I was afraid they would draft either a CB or WR that would suck?  I think it means I care because I don’t want them to do anything to hurt themselves.
• St. Louis made some moves.  They traded up early to get Tavon Austin and they did it because they loved Austin and they had the ammunition to do it and they didn’t give up their other 1st rounder.  They traded down with their later pick and ended up taking Alec Ogletree 30^th overall.  Ogletree is a million dollar talent that needs to keep his head on straight.  He’s extremely athletic and can play any of the Rams LB spots but the best thing for him is he is going to a team with a veteran head coach (Jeff Fisher) and some very strong leaders that are good people on defense (James Laurinaitis and Chris Long).
• The Big Ten did not get shut of the first round like many were predicting.  The Dallas Cowboys had traded down to San Francisco’s spot at #31 and they obliged the Big Ten with a pick.  Jonathan Hankins and Kawann Short, the two DT out of the Big Ten were seen as the most likely guys to save the conference and the Cowboys certainly need DT’s so it was a natural fit when Jerry Jones phoned in the pick.  When Roger Goodell said “With the 31^st pick in the 2013 draft the Dallas Cowboys select Travis Frederick, center, University of Wisconsin” my chin nearly hit the floor.  Jones is creeping in on Al Davis territory.  Frederick is a perfectly nice center but perfectly nice centers go at the end of the 3^rd round not the end of the first.  Thanks Jerry at least the Big Ten had a first round pick but couldn’t you have at least made it a defensible one.
• The Ravens ended the first round with SS Matt Elam from Florida.  I told you they weren’t going to go ILB in the first round and let me explain why.  MLB or ILB is not a premium position in the NFL, more proof it’s a passing league.  LB’s that can only play two downs (i.e. Manti Te’o, Kevin Minter) don’t have the value of other positions.  The only inside or middle LB to go in the first round was Alec Ogletree to the Rams at #30 and he isn’t going to play MLB in St. Louis.  He got drafted because he is a three down LB.
• The Names that didn’t get picked.  Manti Te’o was the hot top on the NFL Network set and every time the Vikings drafted (and the picked 3 times) everybody kept saying “here goes Te’o” but he never did…why?  Let me say it again… Two down LB.  Geno Smith sat in the green room all night and never heard his name called.  Apparently 31 teams in the NFL realized what we all knew, there were no 1^st round worthy QB’s in this draft…I guess Buddy Nix didn’t get that memo.  I was wrong about the late 1^st round QB run and I’m glad I was because it means teams are at least as smart as I am.  By the way on Friday night (rounds 2&3) I expect to hear the names Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray and possibly Landry Jones all get called.  Too many teams need QB’s.
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have the first pick of the second round and while they could still draft Damontre Moore like I suggested in my mock draft I wouldn’t be shocked if Matt Barkley is their pick.

My third and final 2013 NFL Mock Draft (the week before the draft).  I’m going two rounds this time because I just can’t help myself and then I’m going to give some random thoughts and a few predictions.

I spent a lot of time on this mock draft because I love football, both college and professional.  The NFL Draft is my favorite sporting event of the year because it’s when I get to see the two come together.  This is my opinion based on what I’ve seen of the players (and yes I waste far too much of my time watching them), what I’ve read about what teams are thinking and what I think should happen.  It is for entertainment purposes only so don’t take offense if I insulted your team (sorry but as a Patriots fan I hate the Jets) and if you think I’m a terrible writer I DON’T GIVE A DAMN this isn’t a literary masterpiece and I’m not trying to make it one.  It’s meant to entertain, make you think about your favorite team and by Saturday night it will be even more irrelevant than it is now.

As always.  Enjoy!

1.      Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel   OT   Texas A&M

I get it everyone is off the Joeckel bandwagon and hopping on the Eric Fisher bandwagon.  Not me, not a chance.  Neither one of these two is going to be Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace.  Given that Fisher’s rise has occurred between the end of the regular season and the draft I just can’t get on board.  Fisher is a good prospect and a heck of an athlete for an OT but I question anybody whose rise happened when no real football games are being played.  Yes Fisher looked good at the Senior Bowl but that’s one week of practice and a game that doesn’t matter.  Joeckel looked good all season against the best competition in the country and that means a lot more to me than a good stop watch number or how far he can jump, seriously when was the last time an OT needed to jump?  Andy Reid has a history of drafting offensive or defensive lineman in the first round which tells me he’s mostly risk averse this high in the draft.  Joeckel is well worth the pick and his bust potential is lower than Fisher’s.

Potential stupid move:  They can’t make one here because it’s either Joeckel or Fisher and while I don’t like the Fisher pick it would be tough to call it stupid.  Fisher’s value has risen to the point where he could go first and it’s not a real reach.  

2.      Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14):  Dee Milliner   CB   Alabama

I might be the only person picking this right now in a mock draft, I haven’t read them all but I’ve read a lot and everyone seems to think its Dion Jordan here because Gus Bradley likes pass rushers.  Sorry but I’m sticking with Milliner because last time I checked Bradley just left Seattle where he had Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner at CB.  Bradley knows the value of big physical CB’s and he doesn’t have much of anything right now at the position.  There are three first round worthy CB’s meaning that you aren’t getting one in the second round but there are many good pass rushers and Jacksonville picks first in the second round.  Their odds of a good DE falling into the second round are better than those of a CB being there.

Potential stupid move:  The Jaguars are in the unenviable position of not being able to make a stupid move, that may sound wrong but here’s why.  Their roster is so bereft of talent that anybody they pick has a shot to be a difference maker.  The only place they don’t need help is a RB and there is no chance they take a RB this high so no chance of making a stupid pick.

*The recent disclosure of multiple surgeries on Milliner may change this pick.     

3.      Oakland Raiders (4-12):  Sharrif Floyd   DT   Florida

We all need to give Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie and hand because he is taking on one of the biggest rebuilding jobs in sports.  This isn’t his first year but he is still in the middle of digging the franchise out from under the years of bad drafts, terrible trades and generally crazy moves made by former owner Al Davis.  The roster is a wreck and McKenzie is taking his licks right now to dig out of salary cap hell but in the meantime he has to try to stock the roster with talent.   I’m not the biggest Sharrif Floyd fan but he does grow on you.  He’s versatile and can make plays and the Raiders need defensive tackles so badly if I threw on a helmet and shoulder pads it would take them at least a minute to decide not sign me.  McKenzie would love to trade out of this spot and recoup some picks and his best bet would be to convince the Cardinals that all three top OT’s will be gone by the #7 pick.  It’s not an easy sell but he did convince them to trade for Carson Palmer so I’m not discounting the possibility.

Potential stupid move:  So far McKenzie hasn’t really made one.  Not everyone is on board with the Matt Flynn pick up but whether it’s Matt Flynn or Carson Palmer behind center the QB position is not what is standing between the Raiders and the playoffs.    

4.      Philadelphia Eagles (4-12):  Star Lotulelei   DT   Utah

That’s right I’m back to where I started.  Lotulelei took a trip around the first round of the mock drafts due to a heart condition discovered during the medical testing at the Combine.  Now that Lotulelei has seemingly passed all subsequent tests he is back where he belongs in the top 5.  The Eagles are transitioning to a 3-4 defensive alignment and no one has any idea what Chip Kelly is going to do.  So I’m giving the Eagles the best defensive lineman in the draft and a guy that can play all over the front of that 3-4 defense.  A great case can be made for Eric Fisher and the Eagles will have to think long and hard about it.  Geno Smith has been mentioned here quite a bit but Lotulelei is too good to pass up.

Potential stupid move:  I’m not a fan of Smith and I actually don’t think he fits Kelly’s offense so drafting him would be a mistake.  I think Kelly knows this and he is more likely to grab EJ Manuel in the second round than take Smith here.    

5.      Detroit Lions (4-12):   Eric Fisher   OT   Central Michigan

The Lions rejoice, especially Matthew Stafford.  Jeff Backus has been playing left tackle since the Johnson administration (and I mean Andrew Johnson) but he finally retired this off season.  The Lions used a first round pick on Riley Reiff last year but he’s better suited to RT or inside at guard and as luck would have it the Lions also lost their RT Gosder Cherilus in free agency.  The Lions have other needs, namely DE and CB, but when Backus retired LT became the priority.  This team is built around franchise QB Stafford and keeping him healthy is priority #1.  Fisher and Reiff should make nice young bookend tackles for the foreseeable future and keep Stafford upright.  My opinion on the first pick may make it sound like I don’t like Fisher but I do and I think he’s a great pick here.

Potentially unfortunate move:  Not really a stupid move on the Lions part but a potentially unfortunate scenario if the Raiders and the Eagles find trade partners that really like the OT’s in this draft.  The Cardinals, Bills, Chargers and Dolphins could all be motivated to trade up to grab one of the top 3 OT and if they do they could all be gone in the top 4 picks.  The Lions would then have some good players around to choose from but they would miss out on the LT they need.  Worst case scenario is the first four picks are the three OT’s and Dee Milliner.   

6.      Cleveland Browns (5-11):  Geno Smith   QB   West Virginia

Yes I know I’m the Geno hater and yet I moved him up in this draft but let me tell you why before you pull your hair out.  The Browns are the wild card here because I think they guy they want (Dee Milliner) is going to be gone before they pick.  They already addressed their most pressing need (pass rushing OLB’s) in free agency and they have a new coach (Rod Chudzinski) and a new GM (Mike Lombardi) that have no allegiance to current QB Brandon Weeden.  I actually have a trade scenario in mind that I will talk about in my Thoughts and Predictions section that makes way to much sense for two NFL teams to pull off.  The reason I think they go with Geno Smith is that Lombardi knows that you can’t win in the NFL without a great QB and I don’t think he’s convinced Weeden can be one.  Also Chudzinski has spent the last couple of years coaching Cam Newton in Carolina and making him a pretty good QB so he could potentially be the right guy to know how to use Smith.  Smith is an athletic guy who prefers to throw; he is more like Newton than like Robert Griffin III.

Potential stupid move:  Not trading down and taking Smith where he should go…I’ll get to this a little later.     

7.      Arizona Cardinals (5-11):  Lane Johnson   OT   Oklahoma

Just within the past few weeks the NFL has gone through a QB shuffle.  Kevin Kolb signed with the Buffalo Bills, Matt Flynn got traded to the Oakland Raiders and Carson Palmer was sent to the Arizona Cardinals.  At this point all three of these guys could just be placeholders but what this does is eliminate the need for those three teams to reach for a QB high in the draft…sorry Matt Barkley.  I actually think Palmer is the perfect guy for Arizona if they can get him some protection.  People think of the Carson Palmer that has lost a lot of games with the Raiders for the past few years and yes the Raiders paid way too high of a price for Palmer but the Cardinals didn’t.  Palmer is a big strong armed pocket passer that new coach Bruce Arians can use.  Palmer put up some good stats in Oakland throwing to the likes of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore now he gets Larry Fitzgerald.  I remember Palmer winning some games when he was throwing to Chad Johnson (before the Ochocinco thing) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (yes I spelled that right).  Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts and Michael Floyd will all look a lot better with Palmer throwing to them and Palmer will look a lot better with these guys around him, however, this is all contingent on Palmer not getting destroyed which is why Lane Johnson is an important piece of the puzzle.

Potential stupid move:  Going in to this season with the immovable Carson Palmer at QB without fixing that atrocious offensive line.  Behind last year’s offensive line Palmer won’t make it out of the preseason.   

8.     Buffalo Bills (6-10):  Dion Jordan   DE/OLB   Oregon

The Bills need help in a lot of places so who better than a guy as versatile as Jordan.  The Bills have lacked an elite pass rusher since…Bruce Smith? …and Jordan would give new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine some options on how to run his defense.  Chance Warmack is a distinct possibility given the loss of Andy Levitre in free agency but I think the Bills make a splash with a defensive playmaker that is great value at the #8 pick.  The Kevin Kolb signing buys the Bills some time at QB so they can take one later (Ryan Nassib?) and they don’t have to rush him into the starting lineup.  What does it say about the Bills QB situation when Kevin Kolb is an upgrade?

Potential stupid move:  Drafting a QB anyway.  I can’t completely discount the possibility because it is Kevin Kolb and I have little faith in GM Buddy Nix.  

9.     New York Jets (6-10):  Ezekiel Ansah   OLB   BYU

The Jets have so many holes you could use their roster to drain pasta.  Now that they have traded Darrelle Revis that means there isn’t a single position on the team they couldn’t address with this pick.  They are good at LT but they are terrible at RT, Mark Sanchez is a QB but only if the standard for being a QB is taking the snap from center, they have a couple of nice young defensive lineman (Quinton Coples and Muhammad Wilkerson) but they still need help there.  LB is a wasteland, WR needs work and TE is a joke.  Following me here?  Ansah is shooting for the moon; the payoff could be huge or it’s the end of the Rex Ryan era in New York.

Potential stupid move:  Going into the season with Mark Sanchez as the starting QB and thinking you have a chance to be any good.  What does Sanchez have to do to prove he isn’t a winning QB in the NFL?  I assume getting Rex Ryan fired will convince the next coach of the Jets not to tie his future to Sanchez.

10.     Tennessee Titans (6-10):  Barkevious Mingo   DE   LSU

The run on pass rushers is in full swing and while I’m not the biggest fan of Mingo and I like other guys better (Jarvis Jones) Mingo has made a steady climb up the draft boards.  Mingo should probably go to a 3-4 team but he can be a good pass rusher from the DE position and the Titans need a real pass rusher.  The Titans addressed their biggest need at OG with free agent Andy Levitre but that doesn’t preclude them from possibly jumping on Chance Warmack here.   I think they will find pass rusher to be a bigger need though.

Potential stupid move:  This actually might be it.  Mingo is a gamble and I think he would be better suited to OLB in a 3-4 defense.  Warmack would be a safe choice but I actually think Jonathan Cooper would be a smarter choice because he has the ability to play both OG and center and the Titans could use that versatility to put their best five linemen together.  

11.     San Diego Chargers (7-9):  Chance Warmack   OG   Alabama

The Chargers really need to trade up into the top 6 to get themselves a shot at one of the top 3 OT’s in this draft.  Lane Johnson would be a welcome addition to a line starving for a LT.  I’m not predicting trades in this mock draft and even if I was I don’t think the Chargers new GM and head coach are willing to mortgage the future just to get a LT and they have too many holes to fill to give up a lot of picks.  Warmack is a fantastic consolation prize at #11.  Warmack can take over for the recently departed free agent Louis Vazquez and he’s one of the best OG prospects in a long time.

Potential stupid move:  Exactly what I just mentioned, trading a boat load of picks or future 1^st rounder just to move up to get Lane Johnson.  If they could get up into the top 6 without giving up a lot then fine but that just isn’t possible from the 11^th pick.  The GM and the head coach are in their first year and they know they need to build a team and they know they have a ton of holes to fill.  This team isn’t an elite LT away from a Super Bowl or even the playoffs.   

12.      Miami Dolphins (7-9):  Xavier Rhodes   CB   Florida St. 

Now this is a team with an executive that is desperate enough to mortgage his team’s future to get the LT he needs.  Jeff Ireland knows he is working on borrowed time which is why he went and spent a billion dollars on free agents like Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler.  I going to talk about this potential trade with the Browns and why I think it should, can and probably won’t happen after this mock draft.  If the Dolphins stand pat Xavier Rhodes is the type of CB they need to replace the departed Sean Smith.  Rhodes is big and physical and proved he has enough speed to go high in the draft.

Potential stupid move:  Going for broke on free agents because you know if this team doesn’t win you are gone.  Ireland spent money in free agency like a drunken sailor and I think he might be about to send a bevy of picks to Cleveland to make his one last ditch effort to save his job.  Stupid move here we come.  

13.     New York Jets (6-10) (from Tampa Bay):  Tavon Austin   WR   West Virginia

The Jets finally pulled the trigger on their trade of Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they get Tampa’s first rounder this year.  If Tampa had stayed at 13 they probably would have grabbed Austin here and he makes sense for Jets too.  Jeremy Kerley was the Jets top WR last year and that is nice for Kerley but not a good thing for the Jets.  Santonio Holmes is coming off an injury and Stephen Hill is still very raw.  Austin would give the Jets a playmaker and while it may still not be enough to make Mark Sanchez a winning QB it certainly couldn’t hurt.

Potential stupid move:  There seems to be a split on whether or not the Jets should trade Revis but he is in the last year of his contract, they can’t franchise him after next season and they have had contentious negotiations with him before.  Also having a great CB on a bad defense is pointless.  Even if Revis can shut down his WR the other ten offensive players are killing you and you lose anyway.  The best choice is to get the most compensation for him now.  

14.     Carolina Panthers (7-9):  Sheldon Richardson   DT   Missouri

I can’t let this one go.  Richardson just makes too much sense here and that’s why it won’t happen.  The Panthers interior of the defensive line is terrible and Luke Kuechly needs body guards up front.  Richardson is the perfect blend of value and fit at #14 for Carolina and I can’t come off it.  They could use some help on the offensive line at RT so DJ Fluker would make sense too.  If Tavon Austin is still available he could be Steve Smith’s eventual replacement but I’m sticking with Richardson.

Potential stupid move:  Over thinking it and not taking the obvious choice. 

15.     New Orleans Saints (7-9):  Jarvis Jones   OLB   Georgia

My favorite player in the draft and my choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year if he goes to the right team and the Saints would certainly qualify.  Jones has a medical question having spinal stenosis and while no one is claiming he can’t play in the NFL because of it they do question how long he can play.  That is actually not the reason he is falling on draft boards though, his 4.9 40 at the Georgia pro-day did not impress anyone.  That’s their loss.  Watch this kid on film and you will never question his game speed.  He didn’t run 40 yards very quickly that day but he has the explosion and the burst of an elite pass rusher from the OLB position.  Rob Ryan has taken over as defensive coordinator in New Orleans and he is installing his attacking 3-4 defense and he is going to be one happy man on draft day if the Saints get Jones.

Potential stupid move:  Passing on Jones if he’s here would be a colossal mistake.  The Saints transition to a 3-4 defense needs a great pass rusher and this kid is it.   

16.     St. Louis Rams (7-8-1):  Kenny Vaccaro   S   Texas

According to most reports the Rams want Tavon Austin but they will have to trade up to get him.  The Rams have another first round pick so if they really want to they have the ammunition to get up as high as they think they need to get him.  Vaccaro is the next need on their list and he’s a pretty good pick here.  There are teams coming up that could use him so taking now would be prudent but teams are also coming around to the fact that Vaccaro is good but he’s not so far ahead of Matt Elam or Jonathan Cyprien that it’s Vaccaro or bust.  This is a good pick for the Rams after solving their problems at CB last off season safety is an area that needs an upgrade.

Potential stupid move:  The Rams have enough holes on their team that trading both first round picks to move up to get Austin would be a mistake.  They need a WR and a safety and they can get both in the first round.  Austin is not far enough ahead of Corderrelle Patterson to warrant trading up for him.  

17.     Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8):  Sylvester Williams   DT   North Carolina

The defensive tackle that no one is talking about except scouts and front office people is right up the alley of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Casey Hampton has been playing NT for Steelers about as long as Jeff Backus played LT for the Lions, he’s old and he’s probably done.  Williams doesn’t get the pub that Floyd or Lotulelei or even Richardson get but he’s well known in scouting circles.  The Steelers don’t go for flashy (Corderrelle Patterson); they don’t reach for need (Eddie Lacy); they don’t take head cases (Alec Ogletree) and they don’t take a bad schematic fit (Bjoern Werner).  Williams is a classic Steelers pick.

Potential stupid move:  Any of the things I just mentioned. 

18.     Dallas Cowboys (8-8):  DJ Fluker   OT   Alabama

The Cowboys need a DT but there is a lot more value at DT than at OT in the second round. Also they just dropped a whole lot of cash on their QB and I don’t think they are going to leave his protection up to Doug Free anymore.  Tyron Smith and DJ Fluker make for a very nice set of bookend tackles for the foreseeable future.  Jesse Williams the DT from Alabama is certainly a possibility but the drop off at OT after Fluker is pretty significant and the ‘Boys need to protect their investment.

Completely stupid move:  Look back at my previous mock drafts to read my take on the Cowboys idiotic switch to the Tampa-2 defense from their 3-4 defense of the past several years. 

19.      New York Giants (9-7):  Tank Carradine   DE   Florida St.

I could only deny the Giants nature for so long and now I’ve finally come around to the facts.  The Giants love pass rushers and Carradine is a find.  The Giants took a chance on a pass rusher that everyone agreed was a gamble and they won big with Jason Pierre-Paul.  Now that Osi Umenyiora has finally left and Justin Tuck is not getting any younger the Giants will need a new tag team partner for JPP and Carradine is a nice choice.  They also have the luxury of being able to ease him back into game shape because they don’t need him right away.

Potential stupid move:  There are certain franchises that are run very well and they draft well and that is why they are always picking in the last half of the round instead of at the top.  The Giants are one of these franchises and they don’t make too many mistakes so I don’t see them doing something completely idiotic here.  

20.     Chicago Bears (10-6):  Jonathan Cooper   OG   North Carolina

Saying that the Bears need offensive line help is like saying the Titanic bumped into an iceberg.  Jermon Bushrod was their big free agent signing at LT but he’s a band-aid on a bullet wound.  They need lots of help and Cooper is too good to pass up here.  The Bears could grab a LB like Alex Ogletree here but Cooper is a sure thing and can play multiple positions.  I’m actually not sure he will even make it to this point but if he does the Bears cannot afford to pass on him.

Potential stupid move:  The Bears have some key holes to fill on the offensive line and at linebacker which matches up pretty well with the value at this point in the draft.  Ogletree would be a bit of a gamble due to his off the field concerns but he would be worth the risk.

21.     Cincinnati Bengals (10-6):  Alec Ogletree   LB   Georgia

The Bengals gambling on a guy with character concerns?  I’m shocked… that would never happen.  Ogletree was destined to be a Bengal and even with the re-signing of Rey Maualuga and the signing of James Harrison they still need a LB.  Maualuga is a two down LB and Harrison doesn’t have a lot left in the tank.  Ogletree has the talent to play any of the three LB positions and gives the Bengals a lot of flexibility.  If the Bengals can take a head case like Vontaze Burfict (last year’s undrafted free agent treasure) and turn him into a productive player I’ll be fascinated with what they can do with a true talent like Ogletree.

Potential stupid move:  The Bengals need a LB, a SS and maybe a CB so they are in a great position.  The only bad move they could make is grabbing RB Eddie Lacy here and it’s only a bad move because it’s too high for Lacy and there are better players on the board.  

22.     St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (from Washington):  Corderrelle Patterson  WR   Tennessee

If the Rams don’t get Tavon Austin with their first pick and they take Vaccaro then this is the perfect scenario for them.  Patterson can be a game breaker and Sam Bradford needs some talent at WR.  Patterson is a hell of a consolation prize if they don’t get Austin.  He has all the physical talent in the world and the only concern is that he only displayed it for one season in major college football.  My take on Patterson is how good can he be with great QB play?  Tyler Bray was his QB at Tennessee and while Bray is a great physical specimen and a solid QB prospect in his own right he wasn’t a very consistent guy.  If Patterson gets hooked up with a good QB like Bradford he could light it up.

Potential stupid move:  Rams need a WR and a safety in the first round, two pick two needs, don’t over think it. 

23.     Minnesota Vikings (10-6):  Desmond Trufant   CB   Washington

I can’t believe the Vikings are going to luck into the best man-to-man cover guy in this draft.  Trufant is underappreciated in this draft and the Vikings are going to reap the benefits.  With Antoine Winfield off to the Seahawks the Vikings need a new top cover man and this is him.  I like Trufant, he isn’t as big as Milliner or Rhodes but he has better hips and is a more fluid cover corner.  Size is so often overrated when it comes to CB; smaller and shiftier is often the better combination.

Potential stupid move:  Passing on Trufant if he’s here would qualify.   

24.    Indianapolis Colts (11-5):  Jesse Williams   DT   Alabama

The Colts have signed a few guys up front to help them with their transition to the 3-4 defense that they started last year but they need a really good NT in the middle and Jesse Williams is just that.  Williams has been playing in the middle of Alabama’s vaunted defense and he didn’t put up eye popping numbers and he doesn’t stand out on a high light reel, that’s what makes him the perfect NT.  Chuck Pagano knows what he needs to make his defense truly special and it starts right in the middle of the defensive line.

Potential stupid move:  The Colts still need help at LB both inside and out but the value for 3-4 OLB isn’t here at this point and Williams is a more valuable piece to the new defense than a new ILB would be.   

25.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle):  Arthur Brown   LB   Kansas St.

The Vikings become the luckiest team in this draft if they get Trufant and Arthur Brown.  I keep reading in mock drafts how the Vikings love Notre Dame players (they do have a disproportionate amount of Domers) and that’s why they will take Manti Te’o here.  Okay, except I think their front office still scouts other schools too and Brown is a better all-around player and he can play the MLB or OLB and he can play three downs as opposed to the two downs Te’o can play.  It’s one thing to have an affinity for players from a certain school but it’s another to be blinded by it.

Potential stupid move:  There is a chance Brown could be off the board by this time and if he is that would probably make Te’o the next logical MLB but if that happens then the Vikings need to look to drop back a little and get Te’o later.  This is one of the prime places for a team wanting one of the QB’s to look to trade up to from the second round so the Vikings need to keep that in mind. 

26.     Green Bay Packers (11-5):  Jonathan Cyprien   S   Florida International

The Packers sent Charles Woodson packing and it is time to get younger at safety.  I had them taking Matt Elam in my last mock draft and I still like Elam but Cyprien has started to grow on folks around the league and he’s a bigger guy.  I said it before, if Elam was three inches taller we would be talking about him in the top 20 for sure but he’s not so Cyprien overtakes him here and the Packers get their new young safety.  Menelik Watson the OT from Florida St. is a possibility here but I feel like the Packers have spent some top picks lately on the offensive line and they have neglected the secondary long enough.

Potential stupid move:  Packers are a pretty good drafting team and you can make a case that they should take Eddie Lacy to fix their RB problems but I don’t think Lacy is far enough ahead of the other RB’s to warrant a first round pick.  

27.     Houston Texans (12-4):  Keenan Allen   WR   California

The worst kept secret in the league is that the Texans are targeting a WR with their first pick.  I like Allen even though he hasn’t had a healthy workout for anyone and people are starting to drop his grade.  This is a case of an injury at a bad time could drop a guy and someone is going to get a heck of a WR.  If Allen wasn’t injured I think we would be talking about him going in the top 15 picks for sure.  He’s an amazing physical talent that played with some terrible QB’s at Cal.  There is a reason why Jeff Tedford was fired at Cal and it wasn’t because of Keenan Allen.  DeAndre Hopkins or Robert Woods might make a play for this spot but the Texans need to roll the dice on a guy that can help now and eventually replace Andre Johnson.

Potential stupid pick:  Passing on Allen due to his injury, when he recovers they will regret it. 

28.     Denver Broncos (13-3):  Bjoern Werner   DE   Florida St.

So the team that completely flubbed the re-signing of their top pass rusher lucks into one of the better DE’s in this draft?  Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.  Werner started out this draft cycle looking like a top 10 pick.  He was passed by a lot of great athletes but he’s still a very good player for #28 in the draft.  I like Werner as an all-around DE, he won’t be the pass rusher that Elvis Dumervil is but he’ll stop the run better and he should be good enough to allow Von Miller to do his thing.

Potential stupid move: Letting Dumervil get away.  Everyone is blaming Dumervil and his agent for screwing it up but the Broncos have to take some blame.  Why would you let things go all the way down to the last minute of the deadline with one of your most important defensive players?  You knew this was coming all year long, get it done. 

29.     New England Patriots (12-4):  DJ Hayden   CB   Houston

I am reluctantly giving the Patriots a CB in the first round of the draft.  Belichick should be barred from drafting CB’s in the first two rounds of the draft (Darius Butler flashbacks still make me twitch).  I’m only doing this because I think Hayden is the late rising guy who will make the first round, the truth is I think there’s about a 98% chance New England trades this pick.  The Patriots have one pick in each of the first three rounds but then they don’t pick again until the seventh round.  This is one of prime spots for a team wanting a QB to trade back into the first round and grab Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib or whoever they seem to love.  *I’ll talk more about Hayden in my Thoughts and Predictions section.

Potential stupid move:  Robert Kraft needs to bar Bill Belichick from drafting CB’s in the first two rounds of the draft; he’s just bad at it.  The three best CB’s Belichick has drafted were Asante Samuel (4^th round 2003), Ellis Hobbs (3^rd round 2005) and Alfonzo Dennard (7^th round 2012).  Please trade this pick.      

30.     Atlanta Falcons (13-3):  Tyler Eifert   TE   Notre Dame

The best TE in the draft goes to the team with the best TE in NFL history.  Eifert would be a nice partner and eventual replacement for Tony Gonzalez and he can be Matt Ryan’s new best friend for the next 7-10 years.  I had the Falcons going with a DE in earlier mock drafts but the signing of Osi Umenyiora has satisfied their desperate need for a DE for now.  Eifert is too great a value for the Falcons to let him slip by here.  After Eifert looked good blocking and looked more physical at the Combine he solidified his standing as the top TE and he should go in the first round.

Potential stupid move:  For a 13-3 team the Falcons have a surprising number of holes to fill so I actually don’t think they can make a mistake here.  They could use a RT so Menelik Watson would be a nice fit, they still need defensive line help so Alex Okafor would be a solid addition and they could use secondary help so Matt Elam or CB’s Jamar Taylor or David Amerson would work too.  

31.     San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1):   Margus Hunt   DE   SMU

Yep I’m still on this one.  So that makes Luke Joeckel to Kansas City, Sheldon Richardson to Carolina and Margus Hunt to the 49ers as my uncompromised picks start to finish in my mock drafts, how’s that for jinxing it.  Yes I know the 49ers need a safety and they need some pass rush help but Justin Smith is getting old and he’s coming off an injury and this team lost depth on the defensive line in free agency.  Jim Harbaugh knows what he needs to keep his defense from slipping and Hunt is the right guy as a DE in a 3-4 defense.  Datone Jones out of UCLA could be the guy too but Hunt brings a physical presence at 6’8 that I think intrigues the 49ers.

Actual stupid move:  AJ Jenkins in the first round last year, they better hope Hunt makes more of an impact.  It would be almost impossible to make less of one.   

32.     Baltimore Ravens (10-6):  Menelik Watson   OT   Florida St.

Everybody is on the ILB pick here for the Ravens and I was too until just recently.  They do need new ILB to replace the retired Ray Lewis and the departed Dannell Ellerbe but this team started playing a lot better when Bryant McKinnie stepped back in at LT and actually played well.  The Ravens just invested an enormous amount of money in QB Joe Flacco and I don’t think they can entrust his protection over and entire season to McKinnie.  Watson offers a lot more value here if he falls this far and he has the flexibility to play right or left tackle allowing the team to find the best fit for Michael Oher and playing Watson at the other spot.  This may seem out of the box but Ozzie Newsome never reaches for a need when there is better value on the board.

Potential stupid move:  I mentioned this in my last mock draft, the only time Ozzie Newsome makes a bad choice is when he’s picking a WR and I don’t see that happening here.  

 

Round 2 (this round is two picks shorter due to the Saints forfeiting their pick in the Bounty scandal and the Cleveland Browns forfeiting their pick when they drafted Josh Gordon in last year’s supplemental draft) 

33.     Jacksonville Jaguars:  Damontre Moore   DE   Texas A&M

This is why the Jaguars should take Dee Milliner instead of a DE with the second pick.  There is great value still available at the top of the second round.  Moore, Sam Montgomery, Alex Okafor and Datone Jones are still on the board. 

34.     San Francisco 49ers (from Kansas City):  David Amerson   DB   North Carolina St.

Amerson is actually listed as a CB but I’m listing him just as a defensive back because a lot of scouts think his best position in the NFL would be safety.  The 49ers lost Dashon Goldson in free agency and Amerson could be a ball hawk playing FS in that defense. 

35.     Philadelphia Eagles:  EJ Manuel   QB   Florida St.

The reason Chip Kelly should pass on Geno Smith in the first round is because EJ Manuel would be a better fit for his offense and he should still be around at the top of the second round.  

36.     Detroit Lions:  Jamar Taylor   CB   Boise St.

Lions address two of their biggest needs with a LT in the first round and a good looking CB in the second.  Taylor can play with the big boys.  DE is a definite need also but Taylor offers too much value here he could easily go in first round.  

37.     Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland):  Eddie Lacy   RB   Alabama

The Bengals get their replacement for the very pedestrian BenJarvus Green-Ellis with the stud RB from Alabama.  Lacy has more speed than you think but that isn’t his game.  Lacy is a going to pound on the opponents and open things up for Dalton to Green. 

38.     Arizona Cardinals:  Matt Barkley   QB   USC

Cardinals fans might get sick to their stomachs is the Cardinals draft another QB named Matt from USC but this is a much better place to get one than the last time they took one.  Carson Palmer is the present and he can buy time for Barkley to be the future.  I actually really like Barkley I’m just not sure he’s ready right away and his value has fallen but this is a good situation for him. 

39.     New York Jets:  Jonathan Banks   CB   Mississippi St.

After trading Revis to the Bucs the Jets have yet another hole in their roster and luckily for them there is some depth at the CB slot.  Banks might have gone a lot higher in this draft if he had run a better 40 time at the Combine.  He was better at his pro-day but he is not a speedster his game is built on his size.

40.     Tennessee Titans:  Matt Elam   SS   Florida

The Titans spent a lot of time last year wishing someone could play SS for them better than Jordan Babineaux, now they have found someone.  Elam only drops because he’s not very big and he’s more of a physical safety than a cover guy.  Advantage Titans. 

41.     Buffalo Bills:  Ryan Nassib   QB   Syracuse

Everyone is calling for this because new head coach Doug Marrone was Nassib’s coach at Syracuse and that makes sense.  Everyone that was calling for it at #8 in the first round was dreaming.  The Kevin Kolb signing gives the Bills cover so they can wait until later to get Nassib.  Two things, I actually believe the Bills will trade into the end of the first round to secure Nassib (more on this later) and I think Nassib beats out Kolb in training camp for job (think Russell Wilson beating out Matt Flynn for the Seahawks job last year). 

42.     Miami Dolphins:  David Bakhtiari   OT   Colorado

The Dolphins need an OT unless they can work out of deal for Branden Albert from the Chiefs.  If they work out a deal it may not even be for this second round pick it may be for their later one.  I’m not sure giving Albert a lot of money is wise which is why the Chiefs are willing to give him up for a late second round pick but the Dolphins need a OT so it’s either Albert or they grab Bakhtiari here.  Bakhtiari is a solid choice and is pretty good value here.  This also changes if they make the trade I suggest later.

*A potential late trade for Branden Albert would change this pick.  

43.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  DeAndre Hopkins   WR   Clemson

Before the Buccaneers traded their #13 pick to the Jets in the Revis trade they were looking at drafting Tavon Austin because of his playmaking abilities.  Hopkins can make plays and the Bucs need some help after trading Arrelious Benn to the Eagles.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams is a nice tandem but the NFL is a passing league and you need more than two good wide outs.  I seriously considered Zach Ertz here but I think they go WR.   

44.     Carolina Panthers:  Robert Woods   WR   USC

Steve Smith has to stop playing sometime and Cam Newton is going to need another WR even as Smith just winds down his career.  Woods isn’t a game breaking speed threat but he might be the best route runner in the draft.  Woods never looks like he’s running fast but he gets open. 

45.     San Diego Chargers:  Kyle Long   OT   Oregon

Offensive lineman…offensive lineman…offensive lineman.  If you hear that chant on draft day when the Chargers are on the clock just look around because you are probably standing near Phillip Rivers.  Long is the son of Howie (yep that one) and the brother of Rams DE Chris Long, the NFL is in his genes.   

46.     St. Louis Rams:  Jonathan Hankins   DT   Ohio St.

Hankins is dropping in the draft because despite his obvious physical gifts he tends to disappear during games.  Teams are asking themselves why and when teams start questioning if you are taking plays off it hurts your stock especially at a loaded position like DT.  The Rams need another DT for their rotation and they have a lot of picks to work with so they can afford to take a shot on a talent like Hankins.  

47.     Dallas Cowboys:  Akeem Spence   DT   Illinois

The Cowboys are switching to a 4-3 defense and they need more DT’s.  Spence is a late rising prospect that played on a bad team last year but he’s got a lot of talent and the Cowboys need talent.   

48.     Pittsburgh Steelers:  Sam Montgomery   OLB   LSU

Montgomery might not be a perfect fit at OLB for the Steelers but he’s a bit of a tweener and the Steelers may be able to get the best out of him in their scheme.  Montgomery isn’t the athlete his former teammate Mingo is but he was actually more productive at LSU.  

49.     New York Giants:  Zach Ertz   TE   Stanford

The Giants signed Brandon Myers from the Raiders but they also lost Martellus Bennett to the Bears so grabbing a talent like Ertz is certainly a possibility.  Ertz is too good to fall much farther and the Giants will take value over need. 

50.     Chicago Bears:  Manti Te’o   LB   Notre Dame

Te’o will drop into the second round of the draft and it will have nothing to do with his fake girlfriend or any other stupid personal questions.  Te’o was exposed in the National Championship game against Alabama and he is seen as an athletically limited player.  The good news for Te’o is he can go to the Bears and continue a long line of great MLB to play in Chicago.  Is he athletically limited?  Yes.  Will that matter playing MLB for the Bears?  Hell no.    

51.     Washington Redskins:  Terrence Williams   WR   Baylor

I don’t normally look for former teammate connections while doing a mock draft but RGIII needs help in his WR corps and who better than one of his favorite targets from his college playing days.  This does just happen to be the right value spot for Williams also so it all works out. 

52.     Minnesota Vikings:  Kawann Short   DT   Purdue

The Vikings had a great first round in this mock draft and now they need to find the eventual replacement for Kevin Williams.  Williams has been there a long time and he can’t last forever.  Short was a really good player on a really bad team and he will be a welcome addition to the Vikings DT rotation.  Short has more value than the WR’s still available.  

53.     Cincinnati Bengals:  Darius Slay   CB   Mississippi St.

Slay began to steal the thunder of his more heralded teammate Jonathan Banks with his blazing fast forty at the Combine.  Banks lost more ground because of his less than impressive forty time and it would not be a surprise if Slay goes first.  However, Banks will likely get the call because he has the size advantage and was a more consistent player overall.  The Bengals will gladly take Slay and add him to their secondary. 

54.     Miami Dolphins (from Indianapolis):  Alex Okafor   DE   Texas

The Dolphins could use someone to help Cameron Wake put pressure on the QB.  Jared Odrick is a nice DE but he isn’t exactly a great fit as a 4-3 DE and he doesn’t bring the heat that would take the emphasis off of Wake.  Okafor is a very nice outside rusher and would make a good pass rushing substitute.

*The potential Branden Albert trade could send this pick to Kansas City.    

55.     Green Bay Packers:  Giovani Bernard   RB   North Carolina

The reason the Packers shouldn’t take a RB in the first round is because of the depth of the position in the second.  Bernard is arguably the best back in this draft.  Lacy is a bigger more powerful runner but Bernard is an all-around player.  I actually like Bernard better and I definitely like him better for the Packers.  They can’t go wrong waiting on RB because even after Bernard you have guys like Montee Ball, Joseph Randle or Jonathan Franklin.  

56.     Seattle Seahawks:  Datone Jones   DE   UCLA

The Seahawks are the beneficiaries of Jones’ status as a tweener.  He isn’t as fast off the edge as you would like at DE and he isn’t as big as you want at DT and that’s exactly what the Seahawks like.  The Seahawks signed some free agents and have some guys but Jones’ versatility and value this late in round two makes him too good to pass on for Pete Carroll.   

57.     Houston Texans:  Kevin Minter   LB   LSU

The Texans put a band-aid on their FS position with the signing of Ed Reed and in this mock draft they addressed their biggest need with WR Keenan Allen in the first round.  Now what they need is a big run stuffing ILB to line up next to Brian Cushing.  Darryl Sharpton will start next to Cushing but he is undersized and there is no depth.  Minter is a big physical LB that can make life just a little easier on that defense.  Great value pick too.  

58.     Denver Broncos:  Kevin Reddick   LB   North Carolina

I like Reddick more than a lot of people and I think he can play the middle for the Broncos.  He will be very good lined up next to Von Miller and he can get the job done.  I’m fairly certain the Broncos will focus on defense in the draft I think Manning has the offense covered.   

59.     New England Patriots:  Justin Hunter   WR   Tennessee

This makes two Patriots picks that will make me nervous.  Belichick has been almost as bad a picking WR in the first or second round as he has been at taking CB’s.  Hunter has loads of physical ability and hopefully upgrading from Tyler Bray to Tom Brady will be just what he needs to be more consistent.   

60.     Atlanta Falcons:  Logan Ryan   CB   Rutgers

The only thing separating Logan Ryan from being a first round pick is his speed.  Ryan is a tough man-to-man corner and the Falcons will love him.  He can step right into a position that is in flux for the Falcons and give them a starting corner.   

61.     San Francisco 49ers:  Corey Lemonier   OLB   Auburn

Lemonier is a good pass rusher that needs work on the rest of his game.  Luckily for him the 49ers only need a situational outside rusher right now.  Lemonier is a too small to play the traditional DE spot, he isn’t very physical and he doesn’t disengage from blocks very well so he may be better suited working off the line at OLB.   

62.     Baltimore Ravens:  Phillip Thomas   FS   Fresno St.

The Ravens let Ed Reed walk in free agency because they know it’s time to get younger at the position.  Thomas is a ball hawk at FS.  He had eight interceptions last season and he’s exactly what the back end of the Ravens defense needs.  The Ravens still need ILB but Thomas is too good to pass up here.

Thoughts, Predictions and Possibilities

–          The trade that should be:  The Browns are in the enviable position of having a very attractive trade target with the #6 pick.  They don’t need any of the positions of value at that spot and there are a number of teams that will be looking to move ahead of the Arizona Cardinals at #7 to get OT Lane Johnson.  The player the Browns want most is Dee Milliner but it is unlikely he gets to #6 and the next player they want is Geno Smith and they can get him later.  Don Banks of Sports Illustrated predicted the San Diego Chargers trading up to get Lane Johnson and I explained why I don’t think they will but here’s why I think the Miami Dolphins will.  Jeff Ireland is going for broke.  He knows if this season isn’t a playoff year he is likely to be shown the door.  He spent money on WR Mike Wallace, WR Brandon Gibson, WR Brian Hartline and TE Dustin Keller to upgrade the weapons around Ryan Tannehill.  Unfortunately he let Jake Long get away in free agency and now they need a new LT.  They are talking to the Chiefs about Branden Albert but I think a trade up for Johnson is a better move.  This trade would allow the Browns to get some picks, build some depth and get the QB they want at a better draft position (#12).  Miami also has two second round picks and could offer one as part of the trade and Cleveland would recoup the pick they forfeited by taking Josh Gordon in last year’s supplemental draft.   It’s a good trade for both teams which is why it probably won’t happen.  *This would be completely moot if the Dolphins trade for Branden Albert. 

–          The possible run on offensive linemen:  I predicted that the three top tackles would go in the first seven picks and if someone trades up to Cleveland’s sixth pick they will go in the first six picks but the offensive linemen in this draft could dominate the top twelve even more than I expect.  The top talent in this draft is at offensive line and I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper and DJ Fluker were off the board by the twelfth pick of the first round.  That’s right the talent of these six guys could make half of the first dozen picks offensive linemen. 

–          The late rising player:  There is always a late rising player the week before the draft and I think this year’s player is Houston CB DJ Hayden.  I have Hayden going to the Patriots but if one player becomes a surprise top 15 selection my money is on Hayden.  He suffered a scary heart injury last year during practice that almost killed him but he has recovered and teams are very intrigued. 

–          End of the 1^st round trading:  I predicted a second round run at QB but the truth is it will probably come earlier.  The Buffalo Bills trading up for Ryan Nassib, the Arizona Cardinals getting back into the first round for a QB (Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon or Tyler Wilson) or the Philadelphia Eagles making a play for EJ Manuel could cause a run on QB’s towards the end of the first round.  There are a number of teams that would be willing to trade out of the last 8-10 picks of the round to pick up extra picks.  I mentioned the Patriots desire to pick up extra picks and they have a history of trading out of the first round but Minnesota at #25 could also move.  The Vikings have the #23 pick so if they get one guy they want but don’t have another they like they could be talked into dropping back.  If Denver doesn’t like their choices at #28 or if the Ravens aren’t satisfied with what’s left at #32 either team would be secure enough with their rosters to drop back and pick up extra picks.  Quarterbacks are a valued commodity in the NFL and there are a number of solid prospects that all have their flaws but teams feel more comfortable grabbing a guy late in the first round if they can sit him at first, call it the Aaron Rodgers effect.  The best part is you can bring in a kid at the end of the first round and let him compete with your veteran QB and if he wins the job great but if he doesn’t you feel fine letting him be the back-up for a year or two.

–          Teams most likely to trade up: The San Francisco 49ers have a ton of picks in this draft and a roster that doesn’t need a lot of new players.  They could go the route of the Patriots in the past and trade their late first rounder for a first rounder next year from a team looking to move up.   I don’t think that is the thinking of the 49ers front office or coaching staff.  They are more likely to go the route of the Falcons a couple of years ago and trade a number of picks to move way up to get a player they feel could make an impact and get them to a Super Bowl trophy.  They need a safety to replace Dashon Goldson and they could also use another pass rushing OLB.  The surprise they could look to pull off is trading up for an impact WR to help out new QB Colin Kapernick.  The only reason this won’t be the case is that it would be an admission that last year’s first round surprise pick AJ Jenkins was a mistake.  The St. Louis Rams are another team with some ammunition to move up and make a splash as they have two first round picks.  The Miami Dolphins also have a number of picks to play with so they could be movers on the first night of the draft.   

Enjoy the draft.

 

 

      

 

 

My Second 2013 NFL Mock Draft (Post Scouting Combine after the first wave of Free Agent signings)

This Mock Draft is not based on any knowledge of what teams are thinking it is based on a combination of what I think teams will do and what I think they should do, if only they would take my advice.  

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel   OT   Texas A&M

The Chiefs traded for QB Alex Smith, franchise tagged LT Brandon Albert and then they released RT Eric Winston so a QB is out but an OT is still the pick.  Watch out for all of those people jumping off the Joeckel bandwagon and hopping on the Eric Fisher one.  Fisher made an impression with his size and athleticism and he’s going to cash a much bigger paycheck because of it but ask the St. Louis Rams how the decision to draft Jason Smith #2 overall in 2009 is working out for them.  You don’t draft an offensive lineman because of how he looks in his Under Armour running a 40 yard dash.  Andy Reid loves to draft linemen in the first round and he will go the safer route and take Joeckel.

Potential stupid move:  Well drafting a QB is out and the trade for Smith makes that pretty well known but they could grab Fisher and I think that’s a reach.

 

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14):  Dee Milliner   CB   Alabama

After Damontre Moore’s calamitous showing at the Scouting Combine he is certainly not going #2 overall.  The Jaguars still need a pass rusher but now that their top three CB’s (Rashean Mathis, Aaron Ross and Derek Cox) are not on their roster anymore they need a CB just so someone is lining up there come training camp.  Even if they get someone in free agency every team needs at least three CB’s and Milliner cemented his place in the top 5 with his 4.37 40 time at the Combine.  His ascension to the #2 spot is because none of the top pass rushers look like they belong this high up and Milliner put to rest all doubts about himself at the Combine.  Milliner doesn’t just look worthy of a high pick he now looks like one of the safest choices on the board.

Potential stupid move:  Believing that any of the QB’s in this draft are an upgrade over Blaine Gabbert and no I’m not saying Gabbert is that good I’m saying the QB class is that bad.     

 

3.  Oakland Raiders (4-12):  Sharrif Floyd   DT   Florida

I can’t believe I’m suggesting it either but look at the facts.  The Raiders need a DL to replace Richard Seymour and with Lotulelei’s heart condition they can’t take him.  Werner did not have a good Combine, it wasn’t as bad as Moore’s but he doesn’t look like a top 5 pick right now.  Floyd is becoming the darling of a lot of front offices right now because they realize he’s versatile and athletic for a man his size.  Every team wants to run multiple defensive fronts throughout a game and having a guy that can do a lot of things is very helpful.  Floyd is an ascending player they may only be scratching the surface of his potential.  I’m usually pretty risk averse at the top of the draft but I think Floyd was underutilized at Florida and his bowl game performance against Louisville was something to see.  At this point the Raiders should take the chance on his potential because great D-linemen are hard to come by and they need a great one.

Potential stupid move: Drafting Cordarrelle Patterson…never mind Al Davis isn’t making this pick so no worries.        

 

4.  Philadelphia Eagles (4-12):  Eric Fisher    OT   Central Michigan

Yes I changed my mind from my first mock draft, that’s why it’s called a mock draft, you can now mock me.  Fisher launched himself towards the top 10 at the Senior Bowl and continued to fly up to the top 5 at the Scouting Combine.  He is a very good prospect at a premium position and has proven to be one of the better prospects regardless of position in this draft.  Since QB’s are seemingly a non-factor this high in the draft and DE being a position of depth but not top heavy on talent OT is the position that will benefit the most.  The Eagles have to fix their OL and a healthy Jason Peters plus plugging in Fisher and moving Todd Herremans back inside to guard would be a huge upgrade over last year.  There is also the chance the Peters isn’t fully recovered or doesn’t last much longer making Fisher an even more valuable choice.

Potential stupid move: Thinking that Michael Vick is going to be your starting QB next year running Chip Kelly’s offense.  I give Vick until half time of the first game before he’s out with an injury.       

 

5.  Detroit Lions (4-12):  Jarvis Jones   OLB   Georgia

Conventional wisdom says the Lions go for a CB or a DE given the state of their secondary and defensive line.  The truth is they need a CB but there isn’t one worth this spot and I don’t think they are enamored with any of the DE prospects either.  Jones seems to have received the medical clearance he needed and he is the best pass rusher in this draft.  The Lions don’t run a 3-4 defense, where Jones would likely flourish as a pass rusher, but he has the skills to be an OLB in a 4-3.  The Lions should draft him and play him the way the Denver Broncos play Von Miller.  It isn’t as if the Lions LB corps is so good that Jones wouldn’t crack the line-up.  The other spot the Lions have to be looking at is OT.  Jeff Backus has retired and Gosder Cherilus signed with the Indianapolis Colts, the Lions drafted Riley Reiff last year and he will get one of the spots but they still need another tackle.  If Fisher makes it past Philadelphia at #4 the Lions have to grab him to protect their investment in Matthew Stafford.

Potential stupid move:  I’m not seeing a stupid move the Lions could make here unless they overdraft a CB out of desperation.  If they reach a little for Lane Johnson it would be understandable given their need at OT and if they like a DE that would be understandable too. 

  

6.  Cleveland Browns (5-11):  Chance Warmack   OG   Alabama

The Browns would love it if Dee Milliner would fall this far but that just isn’t going to happen.  I have had the Browns taking a OLB for new defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s 3-4 alignment but with the free agent signings of Paul Kruger from Baltimore and Quentin Groves from Arizona and Jabaal Sheard moving from DE to OLB they should be covered.  The best place for the Browns to find value is to grab the best OG to come along in a while.  Slotting Warmack in at LG between Joe Thomas and Alex Mack would make the OL pretty good.  Mitchell Schwartz came in as a rookie last year and stabilized the RT spot so bringing in Warmack would really solidify the offensive line.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting a QB here.  They need to solidify the offensive line and get a TE in order to give Brandon Weeden a legitimate chance on offense and see if he can be any good. 

 

7.  Arizona Cardinals (5-11):  Lane Johnson   OT   Oklahoma

It seems unlikely that the Cardinals would go into the season with either Brian Hoyer or Drew Stanton at QB after cutting Kevin Kolb but new GM Steve Keim is smart enough to know not to draft a QB this high.  The success the past few years at finding starting QB’s like Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson outside of the first round coupled with new head coach Bruce Arians QB coaching skills will lead Keim to doing what is best and that is taking the LT they so desperately need.  Lane Johnson put on a great display of athleticism at the Combine after playing well at the Senior Bowl.  Johnson represents the best value for the Cardinals at their most needed position.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting Geno Smith or Matt Barkley here and waiting until the second round to address the OT position.  Coupling Lane Johnson with a second round QB is a far better value.     

 

8.  Buffalo Bills (6-10):  Geno Smith   QB   West Virginia

Somebody has to take a QB too high in this draft and if I were a betting man I would bet on the GM that once gave a $60 million dollar contract to Ryan Fitzpatrick.  My feelings on this QB class are pretty obvious but I know QB’s get overvalued especially by teams that have struggled for years to find a good one.  Buddy Nix doesn’t have a lot of time left calling the shots in Buffalo and he is going to take a shot on Smith’s potential and it will probably set the Bills back a few years but that won’t stop him.  Everyone in the NFL knows you’re only as good as your QB and the Bills haven’t been good at QB since Jim Kelly (don’t start with the Flutie years).

Potential stupid move:  This is it.  Shooting yourself in the foot is never a good idea.

 

9.  New York Jets (6-10):  Dion Jordan   OLB   Oregon

This team needs a new QB and a new RB, they could use help on the offensive line.  They lost their TE (Dustin Keller) to a division rival and some guys on the defensive line (Mike DeVito and Sione Pouha).  Derrelle Revis might get traded and their WR corps isn’t exactly stellar.  Catching my drift here?  This pick could go just about anywhere and be justifiable.  The one thing I didn’t mention is the one thing this team has been missing for several years under Rex Ryan and that is a pass rushing OLB.  They recently parted ways with several LB’s and they aren’t getting any younger there so Dion Jordan is great value at this spot and just what the team needs on defense.  He’s young, athletic and versatile and even if Rex Ryan gets canned at some point in the near future Jordan could transition to just about any defense.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting Matt Barkley believing he’s an upgrade over Mark Sanchez, he may eventually be better than Sanchez but he isn’t an immediate upgrade.  

 

10.  Tennessee Titans (6-10):  Ezekiel Ansah   DE   BYU

I had the Titans taking Chance Warmack in the first mock draft and while that would be moot since I have him going to the Browns in this one I feel like I was right about their needs considering they signed OG Andy Levitre to a huge contract.  Since they got Levitre they can turn their attention to other needs and this is a team that has been looking for a top pass rusher for years.  Derrick Morgan is a solid DE but not a great pass rusher and Kamerion Wimbley was just a guy last year.  This team can afford to take a chance on Ansah’s potential and hope they get the difference maker they need on defense.  I haven’t been Ansah’s biggest fan but he has serious potential and he could be the next Jason Pierre-Paul and that is worth the risk to a team that needs to make something happen.

Potential stupid move:  This team also needs some new blood at safety but this is too high for S Kenny Vaccaro.     

 

11.  San Diego Chargers (7-9):  Jonathan Cooper   OG   North Carolina

The Chargers have a new young coach (Mike McCoy) and a young GM (Tom Telesco) and a QB in his prime to build around.  The best idea would be to rebuild the offensive line in front of said QB and since the top three LT prospects are off the board they should take the next best offensive lineman Cooper.  The loss of Louis Vasquez created a hole at OG that Cooper would fill nicely.  I didn’t have Cooper going in the first round of my first mock draft but he proved he is worthy by showcasing his athleticism and versatility at the Combine.  He isn’t just being looked at as an OG anymore because he showed the ability to play center.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting anything but the best offensive lineman on the board.  Rivers needs protection and the running game needs a boost (and I’m not talking about Danny Woodhead).  Whether they like Cooper or DJ Fluker or another lineman better they need to take the best one available.     

 

12.  Miami Dolphins (7-9):  Xavier Rhodes   CB   Florida St.

The Dolphins blew up every mock draft known to man with their free agent spending spree.  WR Mike Wallace, WR Brandon Gibson and TE Dustin Keller add the weapons the team needs to surround Ryan Tannehill with and Lamar Miller will be given every opportunity to replace the departed Reggie Bush at RB.  They also brought in two shiny new LB’s (Dannell Ellerby and Phillip Wheeler) to replace their old models (Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett).  They have lost one important free agent so far and that was CB Sean Smith so replacing him should be a priority.  LT Jake Long has signed with the Rams making an OT a possibility and they could take Fluker and move Jonathan Martin to LT.  Rhodes is more like Smith than Desmond Trufant, the other top CB, and would be a more likely replacement.  Rhodes is bigger and more physical like Smith.

Potential stupid move:  Paying Mike Wallace like he’s a top three WR in the league…oops…they already did that. 

 

13.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9):  Star Lotulelei   DT   Utah

This pick could be CB Desmond Trufant and it probably should be but the Buccaneers lost DT Roy Miller and DE Michael Bennett in free agency so getting some help on the defensive line looks like a smart move.  Lotulelei is great value here if his heart checks out.  The jury is still out on his medical clearance after having to sit out the Combine due to a heart problem detected by the medical staff.  For a team that has some undersized LB’s getting a big DT with the talent of Lotulelei at this point in the draft would be a coup.  There has been talk about the Bucs trading for Derrelle Revis and if they do that would solidify their interest in the defensive line prospects in the draft.  I like Lotulelei better than most of the DE prospects but a guy like Bjoern Werner or Barkevious Mingo can’t be completely dismissed here.

Potential stupid move:  Not trading for Derrelle Revis or getting a veteran corner on the free agent market and not taking Trufant here.  The Buccaneers need a couple of CB’s for this defense.  They ended last year starting Leonard Johnson and EJ Biggers, if that doesn’t scream team need I don’t know what does. 

 

14.  Carolina Panthers (7-9):  Sheldon Richardson   DT   Missouri

This might be the biggest no-brainer for any team in the first round.  The best player on Carolina’s defense is MLB Luke Kuechly and he needs better body guards up front.  Richardson is a very good penetrating DT who would take some of the pressure off of Kuechly in the middle of the Panther defense.  Richardson would also be a big help to DE’s Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy.  The Panthers could possibly go for DJ Fluker at RT to replace the ineffective Byron Bell but Richardson represents too much value here.

Potential stupid move:  Unless a bunch of DT’s go off the board before this pick the Panthers need to invest in one here.  Floyd, Lotulelei, Richardson, Jonathan Hankins, Kawann Short and even Jesse Williams present value at this point.  Don’t over think it just take the best available DT.   

 

15.  New Orleans Saints (7-9):  Barkevious Mingo   OLB   LSU

This team probably needs a LT to replace the departed Jermon Bushrod but the Saints have always prioritized their guards more than their tackles and they can find an able body LT later if they don’t think Charles Brown can handle the spot.  Rob Ryan is the new defensive coordinator and he is switching to a 3-4 defense and he needs pass rushing OLB’s to make it work.  Mingo is an athletic player that is best suited for OLB and he should flourish in Ryan’s scheme.  The knock on Mingo has been that he didn’t produce big numbers at LSU last year and he’s a bit of a one trick pony.  He is a speed rusher without a lot of moves but with Rob Ryan coaching him I think he will bring exactly what the Saints need, pressure.

Potential stupid move:  This organization is too smart to make some crazy pick and while Mingo is a bit of a wild card this team can afford to take the chance and spending the 15^th pick on a talent like Mingo is worth the gamble.      

 

16.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1):  Kenny Vaccaro   S   Texas

The Rams desperately need an infusion of talent at WR with the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson but that will have to wait until their pick at #22.  Vaccaro is the best safety prospect in the draft and the Rams need help at safety.  There are too many teams between now and when they pick next that might take a safety so they roll the dice on stilling getting value at WR at 22 and take the top safety prospect now.  They did a great job at CB last year signing Cortland Finnegan in free agency and drafting Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson now it is time to solidify the safety spot.

Potential stupid move:  Letting Vaccaro go here hoping he makes it to their next pick.  Pittsburgh, Dallas and Cincinnati are all teams that could grab him before their next pick. 

 

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8):  Damontre Moore   OLB   Texas A&M

The Steelers cut James Harrison because he’s gotten far less effective with age.  Damontre Moore didn’t do himself any favors with a terrible Combine performance and he wasn’t a whole lot better at Texas A&M’s pro day but his loss is going to be the Steelers gain.  The Steelers aren’t going to worry about a slow 40 time or a less than impressive bench press number they will look at what Moore did on the field for the Aggies.  Moore can step in at OLB and give the Steelers the type of impact player they are used to having at that position.  Their defense relies on pressure from the OLB and LaMarr Woodley hasn’t been effective lately either so they need a lot of help here.

Potential stupid move:  This organization doesn’t do stupid. 

 

18.  Dallas Cowboys (8-8):  Jonathan Hankins   DT   Ohio St.

This team is making the completely ill-advised transition from a 3-4 defense to Monte Kiffin’s Tampa-2 defense.  None of their best defensive players fit the new defense very well so it will be a tough transition for sure.  Hankins gives them a big body they need at defensive tackle, a position they are short on because they only needed 3 linemen before.  Hankins is more potential than production but you can’t teach a guy to be this big and athletic and he should be stout in the middle of a line that will have DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer lining up as undersized DE’s.

Potential stupid move:  I said this in my last mock draft but I am not a fan of switching to a defense that doesn’t cater to the strengths of DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Brandon Carr or Morris Claiborne. 

19.  New York Giants (9-7):  DJ Fluker   OT   Alabama

This team has to get younger and better on the offensive line.  They re-signed Will Beatty with the hope he will be their starting LT for the foreseeable future but RT is still a trouble spot.  Fluker is big and physical and built to be a dominating RT.  This is a great value pick and Fluker is one of the safer picks in the first round.  He will never be an elite LT but he will be one of the best RT’s in the league and probably fairly quickly.  The Giants could go their usual route and take a pass rusher like Bjoern Werner but I just think their need on the offensive line is going to outweigh their feelings about the pass rushers still on the board.

Potential stupid move:  There is a reason that a bad season for the Giants results in a 9-7 record, they aren’t stupid.  They don’t gamble too much and when they do they end up with Jason Pierre-Paul.    

 

20.  Chicago Bears (10-6):  Alec Ogletree   LB   Georgia

I said in my first mock draft that Ogletree would fall out of the first round because he’s a head case and he still is but I changed my mind.  The Bears still desperately need to address their offensive line even after signing Jermon Bushrod (seriously he isn’t much of an upgrade over J’Marcus Webb).  The problem is that the early run on offensive linemen means the Bears would have to reach a bit but if they do remember the name Larry Warford out of Kentucky.  The forgotten man behind two great guard prospects, Warford is a pretty good player.  I think the Bears will feel that their need at LB (they lost Nick Roach in free agency and they are aging rapidly otherwise) is just as big a concern as offensive line.  The fact that the team has some very strong leadership (Urlacher, Briggs and Peppers) on defense should be enough to assuage their fears about Ogletree’s problems.  If there is a locker room that can keep the kid focused and out of trouble it should be this one.

Potential stupid move:  Giving Jermon Bushrod a big contract was not a great idea.  He barely grades out better than Webb and he was playing with a QB (Drew Brees) that gets rid of the ball quickly.  He won’t have that luxury with Cutler.  I don’t understand why they didn’t go harder after Jake Long, he has had some injuries lately but if he is recovered he’s light years ahead of Bushrod.      

 

21.  Cincinnati Bengals (10-6):  Arthur Brown   LB   Kansas St.

This is a projection since Brown hasn’t worked out for anyone yet due to an injury.  Brown was fantastic on the field for Kansas St. last season and he brings some versatility to the Bengals.  He could play middle or outside LB in their 4-3 defense and the coaches can decide what is best for him and last year’s undrafted rookie Vontaze Burfict who played extremely well for them.  The Bengals lost Manny Lawson in free agency and it doesn’t look like Rey Maualuga will be coming back either.  This team could use an upgrade at RB but none of the RB’s in this draft look like first round picks let alone going all the way up at 21.  The Bengals would probably jump all over Kenny Vaccaro if he falls this far but I don’t see that happening.

Potential stupid move:  It probably wouldn’t be really stupid to grab RB Eddie Lacy or even Giovani Bernard hear to take over for BenJarvus Green-Ellis but there will be value at RB later in the draft.    

 

22.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (from Washington): Corderrelle Patterson  WR  Tennessee

The dream scenario for the Rams is they take Vaccaro with their first pick and then the best WR in this draft falls to them at 22.  Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson have skipped town and Sam Bradford has to throw it to someone.  Chris Givens, Austin Pettis and Brian Quick might end up being fine receivers but Patterson has the potential to be a game breaker and that is what this offense needs.  They just signed Jake Long so their need at OT has been filled.  They could still use some help on the offensive line but they can wait until later in the draft.

Potential stupid move: Passing up the best WR in the draft would be a major mistake and one the Rams are unlikely to make.    

 

23.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6):  Desmond Trufant   CB   Washington

After his 47 year career in the NFL the Vikings said goodbye to Antoine Winfield, he’ll likely play in his 48^th season next year for someone else and he’ll probably be pretty solid.  I may be off on his years of service but not by much.  The Vikings need to get younger in the secondary and Trufant brings excellent cover skills to the table.  They need help at LB too after losing Jasper Brinkley in the middle but they can pick up a MLB just like Brinkley later in the draft.  Trufant is my favorite man-to-man cover guy and he is too good to slide any farther in this draft.  He is the best player left on the board.

Potential stupid move:  Not grabbing Trufant now would mean leaving him for the Colts to take with the next pick and they would miss out on a very good cover guy.

 

24.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5):  Jesse Williams   DT   Alabama

The Colts have been transitioning their defense to a 3-4 since Chuck Pagano took over last year but they are missing some key personnel.  The biggest piece missing both literally and figuratively is a nose tackle.  They signed Ricky Jean-Francois from the 49ers but he can help all over the line.  Williams is a prototypical NT he has a low center of gravity, he is exceptionally strong and he isn’t known as a pass rusher.  He will anchor their defense for many years to come.  The Colts run defense will be much better with Williams and Jean-Francois lining up next to each other.

Potential stupid move:  The Colts are set at QB, TE and…um…yeah that’s about it.  It’s hard to blow a pick when you have needs everywhere.  The Colts just need talent especially on defense, more importantly talent that fits the needs of their new defense.  The drafting of Anthony Costanzo and the free agent signings of Gosder Cherilus and Donald Thomas this off season should mean that OL is not a need but the interior of their line could still use an upgrade or two.           

 

25.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle):  Tavon Austin   WR   West Virginia

A lot of people think the Vikings made a mistake trading Percy Harvin but I’m not one of them.  If this pick happens I really will believe the Vikings got the better of this deal.  Harvin is a weapon for sure but he is also a colossal headache.  He complained a lot and missed games with injuries and migraines and Austin brings a similar skill set without the baggage.  The Vikings already signed Greg Jennings to come in and be option #1 but they need more than one good WR to help this offense.  I’m actually a bigger fan of Keenan Allen but Austin fits the Vikings needs better.  Austin is a big play waiting to happen and that is exactly what this offense needs to take the heat off of Adrian Peterson.

Potential stupid move:  Grabbing the MLB they need to replace Brinkley here instead of waiting a round.  Kevin Minter, Manti Te’o and two or three other guys should get pushed down into the second round and they could easily replace Brinkley.

 

26.  Green Bay Packers (11-5):  Matt Elam   S   Florida

Everyone seems to think the Packers need help on the offensive line but what they need is for some of their young talent to be healthy and step up.  Evan Dietrich-Smith did a very nice job stepping in and replacing the ineffective Jeff Saturday at the end of last year and if Bryan Bulaga can get healthy and Marshall Newhouse or Derek Sherrod could step up at the other tackle then the line should be much improved.  The Packers lost SS Charles Woodson this off season to the AARP (or possibly to another team) and they need a new strong safety.  If Matt Elam were three inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier he’d be a top 15 pick.  He’s undersized and teams will wonder how long he will hold up but the Packers are looking to win now not five years from now.  Elam would give them a legitimate safety that could actually affect a game.

Potential stupid move:  Grabbing Keenan Allen because Greg Jennings left and Donald Driver retired.  I love Allen but spending a first round draft pick on a guy that will be your fourth WR (he’s not beating out Jordy Nelson, James Jones or Randall Cobb) would just be foolish when you have other needs.     

 

27.  Houston Texans (12-4):  Keenan Allen   WR   California

Devier Posey tore his Achilles tendon, Kevin Walter was just cut, Keshawn Martin is best suited for the slot and Andre Johnson isn’t getting any younger.  The Houston draft room would have to be doing cartwheels if Allen drops to them.  He can come in and line up opposite Johnson and eventually be Johnson’s replacement.  Allen is a terrific athlete and if he was healthy enough to work out right now I think he would be rivaling Patterson to be the first WR off the board.  He didn’t play with a great QB and he was the biggest weapon on Cal’s team so defenses were focused on him.  This kid has immense talent and if he plays with a good QB and a solid offense he will put up some great numbers.

Potential stupid move:  Passing on arguably the best WR in this draft if he falls to you would be a giant mistake.      

 

28.  Denver Broncos (13-3):  Bjoern Werner   DE   Florida St. 

The Broncos have made some savvy signings so far this off season. WR Wes Welker, OG Louis Vasquez, CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and DT Terrance Knighton are all very good and upgrade positions the Broncos needed upgrading.  The big snafu happened when a deadline wasn’t met and they had to cut Elvis Dumervil.  Dumervil was an undersized DE but he was the second leading sacker on the team behind star LB Von Miller.  The Broncos would be lucky if a guy like Werner falls all this way in the first round.  He has great talent but he is a little raw and wasn’t as physically impressive as some of the other DE’s at the Combine.  I don’t think the Broncos defense would miss a beat if Werner replaces Dumervil and Werner would probably hold up better against the run.

Potential stupid move:  Waiting until the last minute to redo a deal you knew you had to redo.  John Elway has had a good off season but he knew weeks ago that he couldn’t afford Dumervil’s $12 million cap hit.  They can all blame Dumervil’s agent for not getting the paperwork in on time but why would you let this go down to the last hour with a guy this important to your defense. 

 

29.  New England Patriots (12-4):  John Jenkins   DT   Georgia

They should probably draft a WR here since they are running very thin at the position but I can’t see Belichick pulling the trigger there.  There are no other glaring needs after the re-signing of CB’s Aqib Talib and Kyle Arrington and the signing of S Adrian Wilson.  I went with Jenkins because he is the perfect eventual replacement for Vince Wilfork and the Patriots will eventually have to replace Wilfork.  Jenkins is a massive human being who puts up virtually no stats which is exactly the definition of Vince Wilfork.  You cannot measure the impact of players like these guys in stats because they are space-eaters and they occupy blockers to allow the DE’s and LB’s to make plays.  The unsung heroes that are only appreciated by coaches like Bill Belichick.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting CB Jonathan Banks out of Mississippi St. would be Belichick repeating the same mistakes he’s made with Darius Butler, Devin McCourty and Ras-I Dowling.  Belichick drafting a CB in the first or second round has not proven to be a great idea.         

 

30.  Atlanta Falcons (13-3):  Datone Jones   DE   UCLA

This kid looked great at the Combine and the more film scouts watch of him the more they will realize what kind of skill set he brings.  He probably won’t fall this far but I couldn’t find a place for him higher than this so the Falcons luck out.  They need a DE that can put pressure on the QB and Jones can do that and everything else a DE needs to do.  Jones was seen as a tweener, not fast enough at DE and not big enough at DT, but he impressed at the Combine and I won’t be the least bit shocked if he goes in the late teens.  His versatility can be seen as an asset but also as a liability because he didn’t excel at just one position.

Potential stupid move:  I think it would be a mistake to pass on a pass rusher because the Falcons needed one even before they let John Abraham go and now they really need one.  However, if they decide to take TE Tyler Eifert as Tony Gonzalez’s eventual replacement I wouldn’t fault them.  Gonzalez has decided to come back but he and Eifert could make a scary two TE formation.  I’m fairly certain Matt Ryan would agree. 

 

31.  San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1):  Margus Hunt   DE   SMU

I’m sticking with this as my out-of-the-box 1^st round pick.  Hunt isn’t a household name and he probably never will be because he projects as a DE in a 3-4 defense.  The only names of 3-4 DE’s that anyone knows are Houston’s JJ Watt and San Francisco’s own Justin Smith.  San Francisco lost some depth with the departures of Isaac Sopoaga and Ricky Jean-Francois and Justin Smith’s age can only be determined through carbon dating at this point so the 49ers need some new blood.  They signed Glenn Dorsey from Kansas City but he never proved to be a great fit in 3-4 defense there so I’m not expecting him to be much more than a back-up in San Fran.  Margus Hunt measured in a 6’8 at the combine and teams love the way he blocked field goals at SMU.  JJ Watt turned batting passes into an art form this year in Houston and someone is going to draft Hunt hoping he can do the same thing.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting a fast but undersized WR way too high in the draft and then having to sit him all season long…wait…that was last year’s stupid move.  At least it didn’t keep them out of the Super Bowl.    

 

32.  Baltimore Ravens (10-6):  Kevin Minter   LB   LSU

I thought the Ravens would take an ILB because Ray Lewis retired and then Dannell Ellerbe got a huge contract offer from the Miami Dolphins and bolted so I’m sure of it now.  The Ravens have to take a LB now and while Minter isn’t a great coverage LB he should be a great run stuffer for that defense and that is what they need.  The loss of Paul Kruger hurts their depth at OLB but the return of a completely healthy Terrell Suggs along with last year’s draft pick Courtney Upshaw makes that position less of a priority.  Jameel McClain could be an option at ILB if he is recovered from a spinal cord contusion but he has never proven to be a great option even when healthy so the Ravens could be looking for a couple of ILB in this draft.

Potential stupid move:  Ozzie Newsome rarely makes a mistake in the draft unless he’s drafting WR.  No seriously, Torrey Smith broke a pretty impressive streak of bad WR drafted by the Ravens between 2000 -2010.  Take a look at this list; Travis Taylor, Ron Johnson, Javin Hunter, Devard Darling, Mark Clayton, Demetrius Williams, Yamon Figurs, Marcus Smith, Justin Harper and David Reed.  These picks were all over the draft in terms of rounds but you would have thought he would have hit on one of them.

 

Potential 1^st rounder picks

QB Matt Barkley USC:  I actually like Barkley more than Geno Smith but neither is worth a first round pick in my opinion.  However, just like I see Geno Smith going in the first round I think Barkley probably will too.  I don’t have him in my first round because I’m not predicting specific trades but I think Barkley will fall to somewhere around the end of the first round and one of the teams that needs a QB (Arizona, Buffalo, Jacksonville) will trade back into the first round and grab him.

RB Giovani Bernard North Carolina and RB Eddie Lacy Alabama:  I put these two together because they are the top two RB’s but they bring different skill sets and there is no way both are going in the first round.  Neither one has proven that they absolutely belong in the first round but if a RB gets taken it will be one of these two.

WR Robert Woods USC: One of Matt Barkley’s favorite targets had a very nice Combine and showed more speed than anyone was expecting giving him a shot to be the 4^th WR taken.  He could sneak into the later part of round 1.

TE Tyler Eifert Notre Dame:  I had a really hard time leaving Eifert out of the first round because he could be such a weapon for someone but not everyone can go in the first round.  Eifert has moved ahead of Zach Ertz as the top TE in this draft after showing at the Combine that he could be a solid blocker.  He was always a better receiving threat than Ertz but he was a little lacking in the blocking department, when he showed that skill at the Combine everyone took notice.

TE Zach Ertz Stanford:  Ertz is an all-around good TE.  He can catch and he can block and he isn’t afraid to do either one.  He is just slightly behind Eifert in the speed and natural receiving department but he will make someone a very nice starting TE next season.

OG Larry Warford Kentucky:  Warford has the unenviable task of being in the same OG class as Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper.  Warford is a very talented guard but Warmack and Cooper are special players and he just doesn’t quite measure up.  He could slip into the end of the first round if all of the top offensive line players go early and someone feels they need to take the next best player.

OL Barrett Jones Alabama:  For some inexplicable reason Jones’ value seems to have dropped in the eyes of NFL evaluators.  I think any guy that can start at OT one year and win the Outland trophy and then start at C the next year and win the Rimington Award has got serious talent.  If someone takes Jones in the first round they won’t regret it but if he falls to the second round some is going to be very lucky.

DE Alex Okafor Texas:  This guy is pretty good and he certainly is talented enough to be a first round pick but he is in a very deep position group and in my mock draft he falls just a little shy of the first 32 picks.

OLB Tank Carradine Florida St.:  This guy is certainly under-the-radar at the moment because he had an injury at the end of the season.  If Carradine proves he’s going to be healthy someone that needs a pass rushing OLB could take a flyer on him at the end of the first round.

DT Sylvester Williams North Carolina:  He’s the unfortunate victim of the deepest position group in the draft.  There just wasn’t enough spots for more than six DT’s in my first round and even if there was there is no guarantee Williams is the next guy off the board because…

DT Kawann Short Purdue:  That’s right there are at least eight DT’s that are first round possibilities and either Williams or Short could replace any of the guys I have going in the first round or they could all go in the first round.  With this DT class beauty is in the eye of the beholder because they all bring different skill sets to the table.

LB Manti Te’o Notre Dame:  Te’o has been talked about as a first rounder but his Combine performance didn’t help his cause.  His position also isn’t one of great value to most teams and being viewed as a two-down LB won’t help him make the first round.  I only include him here because of the intangibles he brings and a team like the Ravens at the end of the first round could like him more than Kevin Minter so he has a shot at the first round.