NFL Free Agency and other moves

Good Moves:  Surprised there are so many so early

–          The Buccaneers signed DE Michael Johnson away from the Bengals for 5 years and $43 million.  Lovie Smith needs a pass rusher opposite Adrian Clayborn and outside of Gerald McCoy and he got a good one in the 27 year old Johnson.  He only had 3.5 sacks last year but he will bring the pressure and he’ll surpass that this year in Tampa.

–          The Vikings reportedly signed DT Linval Joseph.  Pairing Joseph inside with Sharrif Floyd is a fantastic idea.  Mike Zimmer knows how to build a defense; from the inside out.

–          Ravens resigned Eugene Monroe. Both of the Ravens OT’s (Monroe and Oher) are free agents and Monroe is the more important one because he is more talented and plays LT.  Locking up the guy to protect your $100 million QB is great move.

–          Arizona Cardinals sign LT Jared Veldheer from the Raiders.  The Cardinals LT spot has been atrocious for a while and while Veldheer isn’t exactly a perennial Pro Bowler compared to the guys the Cardinals have been playing at LT he is Anthony Munoz.

–          The Colts resigned Vontae Davis for a ton of money but he was an excellent CB for them last season and he allows Chuck Pagano to play the defense the way he wants to.  The even better signing was grabbing the underrated DL Arthur Jones from the Ravens.  Pagano coached Jones when he was with the Ravens and he knows he fits his scheme perfectly.

–          The Bears have somewhat of a trade going on since they dumped DE Julius Peppers and signed DE Lamarr Houston from the Raiders.  Houston is an under-the-radar player because the Raiders defense was terrible last year but Houston is a very good player and a whole lot younger than Peppers.

–          The Eagles signed S Malcolm Jenkins and considering how abysmal the Eagles secondary was last year anything is an upgrade.

–          Broncos grabbed S TJ Ward from the Browns and while a Super Bowl team taking players from the Browns doesn’t sound like a good idea Ward may be the exception.  The Broncos got pushed around by the Seahawks and Ward will bring an attitude to them they didn’t have before.

–          The Falcons signed nose tackle Paul Soliai and while he is already 30 years old he fits perfectly into their new 3-4 defense since they had no one on the roster that can play NT.  They also signed DE Tyson Jackson another player that fits the three man front.  OG Jon Asamoah was signed from the Chiefs and he will be a serious upgrade at guard for them and won’t cost nearly as much as the Jaguars spent on Zane Beadles (more on that later).

–          49ers signed S Antoine Bethea from the Colts to replace Donte Whitner and while Whitner is good Bethea brings better coverage skills.

–          The Redskins are reportedly signing WR Andre Roberts from Arizona.  Roberts isn’t a big name and his numbers suffered last year because Michael Floyd finally stepped up but Roberts is a nice slot receiver to pair with Pierre Garcon on the outside and Jordan Reed a TE; RGIII finally has some weapons.

Bad Moves: Not surprised at the teams making questionable moves

–          The Oakland Raiders signed OL Roger Saffold to a 5 year $42.5 million for some strange reason.  They are getting killed for giving Saffold more money than Eugene Monroe got from the Ravens since Saffold isn’t as good of a LT as Monroe and actually played better at guard last year.  The also spent more on Saffold they their own starting LT last year (Veldheer) got from the Cardinals.  It’s possible the Raiders plan on playing him at guard but that makes the contract even more ridiculous.

–          The Jaguars gave Bronco’s OG Zane Beadles 5 years $30 million.  Beadles is a nice guard and he may even make a Pro Bowl here or there but $6 million a year to a guard is over the top.  Only the transcendent guards should make anywhere near that money.  Guys like Logan Mankins and Alan Faneca back in the day.

–          The Browns signed LB Karlos Dansby to a 4 year $24 million deal.  Dansby is a terrific player but he’s 32 years old and I don’t think he’s going to magically transform the Browns into a contender in the next year or two.  It’s not so much signing him that is bad it’s guaranteeing him $14 million when there is little chance he will be around when you might get good.  I thought Dansby would leave the Cardinals to chase a ring but there was no way he could pass up that pay day.

–          The Miami Dolphins finally ended the chase they started a year ago by signing OT Brandon Albert from the Chiefs.  Last year the Dolphins tried desperately to trade for Albert after the Chiefs franchise tagged him but the teams couldn’t come to an agreement.  Albert is a nice starting LT and to the Dolphins he is a godsend but they are going to pay him top 5 tackle money and Albert is not in that stratosphere.

Neutral Moves:

–          The Cowboys cut DE DeMarcus Ware because he refused to restructure his deal and take a pay cut.  Some people would say the Cowboys are stupid for losing their best defensive player but those people are wrong because LB Sean Lee is their best defensive player.  Some people would say Ware is stupid to leave the Cowboys because he’s 31 years old and no one is going to pay him as much as the reduced salary the Cowboys would but they are wrong too.  The Cowboys changed defenses last season and Ware did fine but he wasn’t his dominant self and he belongs in a 3-4 defense playing OLB.  This divorce is best for both parties because the Cowboys need to move on and so does Ware.  The Falcons are transitioning to a 3-4 and if they can find the room for Ware that is a match made in heaven.  He doesn’t have many years left and the Falcons could make a quick rebound and contend this year.

–          The 49ers traded a sixth round draft pick for QB Blaine Gabbert.  It sucks for the Jaguars that Gabbert was a bust but at least they got a something out of him instead of cutting him for nothing.  The 49ers give up a pick they would have used on a player that was highly unlikely to make their roster and they get to take a look at a young QB that poses absolutely no threat to Kaepernick but could develop into a solid back-up.

2014 NFL Draft Top 5 Offensive Positional Rankings

Quarterback:  These rankings are based on the overall consensus of who the top 4 QB’s are (Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel and Carr) put in the order I favor them and then Mettenberger gets the nod from me over AJ McCarron and Jimmy Garoppolo for the fifth spot.

1. Teddy Bridgewater   Louisville
2. Blake Bortles    Central Florida
3. Johnny Manziel   Texas A&M
4. Derek Carr   Fresno St.
5. Zach Mettenberger    LSU

Bridgewater is my pick if I’m the Texans picking at #1.  He is a guy that hasn’t reached his ceiling yet but he’s good enough right now to step in and lead Houston’s offense from day 1.  Arian Foster and Andre Johnson aren’t getting any younger, the offensive line is solid if not spectacular and the team finally drafted a good complementary WR in DeAndre Hopkins last year; the only thing missing is a solid QB.  Bortles certainly looks the part and he checks off all the boxes of a potential franchise QB but he still worries me because I’ve seen too many of these types come up short (Kyle Boller, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert just to name a few).  Bortles has loads of potential but so did those guys and they didn’t raise their game or lift the performance of the guys around them.  There is a very fine line between Andrew Luck and Kyle Boller and it has very little to do with their physical traits.  Johnny Manziel is arguably the most polarizing prospect ever because people either believe he is the second coming of Joe Montana or they think he’s the antichrist.  I’m somewhere in the middle but I’m leaning towards Manziel flaming out like the next Ryan Leaf.  The fame, the fortune and the celebrity may just be too much for him and there is nothing more destructive to a QB than believing his own hype.  The scariest thing about this year’s QB prospects is that Derek Carr may be the safest choice.  He doesn’t profile like a perennial Pro Bowler but you know what you are getting with him.  He can throw the ball all over the field and he put up huge numbers in Fresno St.’s videogame like offense but no one is certain he’s an NFL starter.  Carr will be a better player than Christian Ponder and with the right team around him he can be a playoff QB.  As a matter of fact I’m fairly certain if you put him in place of Andy Dalton on the Bengals they might actually be better.  I’m not suggesting the Bengals draft him I’m just saying with an offense that has guys like AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Giovani Bernard and Marvin Jones I think Carr could be successful.  Zach Mettenberger is an interesting prospect that is recovering from a knee injury and hasn’t been able to show off for scouts.  This last season under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron at LSU Mettenberger showed how well he could run a pro-style offense and he profiles like an NFL QB.  At 6’5 224 lbs. he is the type of big pocket passer NFL team’s love and under the right coaching staff and with a team that can allow him to recover from his knee injury he could be very good starting QB down the road.

Sleeper: Aaron Murray   Georgia

I already said in my scouting combine thoughts that Murray is my second favorite QB after Bridgewater and I stand behind that assessment.  The reason I don’t rank him second is because I believe strongly in ranking guys based partly on the order in which they might get drafted.  Murray may be my second QB but his draft stock has him in the 3^rd– 4^th round range and I wholeheartedly believe in never drafting a guy above his value.  Draft value isn’t determined by a one scouting perspective it is a collective belief of where a player ranks.  The truth is there are only 3 QB’s in this draft that I think will be starting QB’s in the NFL five years from now and they are Bridgewater, Mettenberger and Murray.

Running Back:  These rankings are based on my preference because in the NFL there is virtually no consensus about running backs.  Every team needs or wants something different and the specialization of the position has made ranking all the backs together almost ludicrous but breaking them down into All-Purpose, Speed, Power and Scat Back just seemed tedious.

1. Ka’Deem Carey   Arizona
2. Tre Mason   Auburn
3. Jeremy Hill   LSU
4. Carlos Hyde   Ohio St.
5. Bishop Sankey   Washington

If Ka’Deem Carey can seriously improve his 40 time at his pro day then he will safely be the top RB in this class but for now he is just one of the guys.  Carey isn’t big but he has an all-around game that most of the other backs don’t have and he can help someone right away.  If a team like the Raiders, who are absent any legitimate NFL running back, were to draft Carey he would start immediately and be pretty productive.  Mason was the star of Auburn’s resurgent offense under Gus Malzahn and he has legitimate NFL talent but he didn’t show the pass catching ability that Carey has shown and he isn’t the tough inside runner that Carey has proven to be.  Part of Mason’s problem is that he is a bit of an upright style runner and that doesn’t bode well for him given his smaller frame.  Jeremy Hill is a powerful downhill runner with an impressive combination of size and speed.  At 6’1 233 lbs. he is built like the prototypical NFL RB.  He doesn’t possess the pass catching ability of a guy like Carey but his hands are adequate.  Carlos Hyde is the quintessential power back and he would much rather run over somebody than run around them.  Hyde can’t be taken down by arm tackles and he has deceptive speed.  Not a player you are going to throw it to out of the back field but when you need the tough yards he will get them.  Bishop Sankey won’t wow you with any one of his skills but he is a fantastic all-around RB.  He is equally adept running inside or outside or catching passes and despite his slight build he is a solid blocker in blitz pickup.  Sankey bared much of the offensive load at Washington and he never wilted under the pressure.

Sleeper:  Charles Sims   West Virginia

Sims is sort of the forgotten man at the RB position as he is a fifth year senior that played on a West Virginia team that wasn’t very good.  Sims has all the necessary skills to be a good NFL back and his natural pass catching skills, especially in the screen game, could make him a perfect fit in the league.  He runs too upright and doesn’t get low enough and he loses leverage battles because of it.  There are a lot of starting RB’s that should consider renting a place instead of buying if their team selects Sims in the draft.

Wide Receivers:  This is another position that could be further broken down into big physical outside receivers, small quick inside receivers and guys that can do both equally well (the Sammy Watkins division).

1. Sammy Watkins   Clemson
2. Mike Evans   Texas A&M
3. Marqise Lee   USC
4. Odell Beckham Jr.   LSU
5. Jordan Matthews   Vanderbilt
6. Brandin Cooks   Oregon St.
7. Kelvin Benjamin   Florida St.
8. Allen Robinson   Penn St.

A position that was seriously enhanced by the addition of underclassmen Jordan Matthews is the only senior in my top 8 (yeah I know I cheated but I couldn’t stop at 5).  Unlike last year’s top WR choice Tavon Austin Sammy Watkins actually deserves to go in the top 10 picks.  The hype that Austin received was largely due to the lack of quality in last year’s WR class but the fact the Watkins is the consensus top WR in this class speaks to the level of his talent.  Watkins is not in the mold of Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones he is more like a slightly larger version of Torry Holt.  Watkins has a great combination of size, speed and innate WR skill and is a legitimate #1 WR.  Mike Evans is in the mold of Calvin Johnson at 6’5 231 lbs. with enough speed to hurt you.  He isn’t in Johnson’s class (no one is at the moment) but that is where his ceiling could be.  Evans is a long strider with deceptive deep speed and while he may lack the short area burst of a smaller receiver he is very adept at using his body to shield defenders.  Marqise Lee isn’t the biggest or the strongest or the fastest WR but he has more natural ability than most of the receivers in this draft.  He won’t wow you but he will beat you repeatedly and you won’t know why.  Smooth and savvy are words that come to mind when watching Lee play and if he gets back completely healthy he is going to be someone’s #1 WR next season.  Odell Beckham Jr. is so physically gifted his mind is still trying to catch up with his body and when it does he is going to dominate his opponents.  When I compared him to Steve Smith I wasn’t trying to be hyperbolic. Smith entered the league as a supremely gifted but raw player and molded himself into a star and Beckham has the chance to do the same.  Beckham isn’t a tall receiver but Smith proved that you don’t have to be 6’4 to dominate as a WR in the NFL.  All Jordan Matthews did in his college career was rewrite the SEC record books for receivers and no one wanted to notice until he went to the combine and ran the 40 in 4.46 seconds.  Matthews is 6’3 212 lbs. and he is an excellent route runner and by all accounts a very intelligent player.  Matthews may have already reached his ceiling as a player but I’m not sure he needs to get much better to be a great pro.  I couldn’t stop at the top 5 because along with the first five Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson could make it 8 WR in the first round.  Yes, in my combine post I said seven but that’s only because I forgot to include Robinson and he certainly has a shot at round 1 also.  Cooks is the quick shifty guy, Benjamin is the nearly tight end sized WR and Robinson falls somewhere in between.  Cooks was highly productive at Oregon St, Benjamin makes teams salivate over his ridiculous size and Robinson makes everyone wonder what they could do with all that raw ability.

Sleeper:  Jared Abbrederis   Wisconsin

I really hate to give this spot to a Badger but Abbrederis is sneaky good.  Most evaluations have him going somewhere in the 3^rd or 4^th round and that’s a steal.  At 6’1 195 lbs. he ran a 4.5 40 which surprised a lot of people because he is thought of as a possession receiver and not really the big play guy.  He understands his position and he knows how to use his routes to set up a defensive back and beat him.  Abbrederis is bigger than guys like Wes Welker, Danny Amendola or Julian Edelman but he’s not as big as guys like Jordy Nelson or Eric Decker (yes I’m well aware that I just named virtually every white WR in the NFL in that sentence).  The truth is Abbrederis’ game is also somewhere in between those two sets of players.  His most impressive film is against Ohio St. where he destroyed Bradley Roby over and over again.  There are a lot of good WR’s ranked ahead of him on most boards but he’ll undoubtedly outplay and outlast many of them in the NFL.

Tight End:  The top five TE’s in this draft are pretty obvious and there isn’t much debate given that there is a serious drop off after number five.

1. Eric Ebron   North Carolina
2. Jace Amaro   Texas Tech
3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins   Washington
4. CJ Fiedorowicz   Iowa
5. Troy Niklas   Notre Dame

After the college season when Ebron and Amaro declared for the draft it looked like they were going to have a fight to the death to see which one went first, then the combine came and Ebron removed all doubt.  Ebron isn’t the next Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski but he compares favorably to Vernon Davis on the field.  He isn’t the freakish athlete that Davis is but Davis has never been the dominant TE his athleticism suggests he can be.  Ebron is a top 15 selection and will make a nice weapon in someone’s passing attack.  Amaro is a fantastic pass catcher and he is what they call a “move” TE.  He’s bigger than say Aaron Hernandez and less homicidal but what knocked him down from Ebron is that Amaro can’t block.  In his defense Texas Tech’s offense never asked Amaro to even pretend to block so it’s possible he can learn but from what teams saw at the combine he has a long ways to go in that part of his game.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins was the top TE prospect going into the college football season and he is a great physical specimen with all the on-the-field talents you could ask for but he has red flags flying everywhere.  He has a DUI arrest from last year and he recently has foot surgery so teams are going to be cautious with him.  His production fell off last season compared to the season before but that was partially because he was asked to block more and Washington’s offense wasn’t as dependent on him.  Seferian-Jenkins has a more well-rounded game than the top two players but he doesn’t look like the dynamic pass catcher they are and that may hurt him.  Depending on the team drafting it is completely possible he passes Amaro and gets drafted before him.  CJ Fiedorowicz is the best blocker among the top five TE’s and while his numbers aren’t eye catching he is a more than capable receiver.  He is a big target with huge hands and a great understanding of how to use his body to shield the defender.  He was underutilized in Iowa’s offense and he might blossom on the right team with the right QB and offense that would take advantage of his skills.  Troy Niklas is right there with Fiedorowicz and is ahead of him at #4 in some rankings.  I rank Niklas below Fiedorowicz because he is still a bit raw.  He has the size and skill but is still lacking some of the refinement you see in the top four guys.

Sleeper:  Umm…yeah…there isn’t one.  After the top 5 guys it is truly an underwhelming bunch.  Tennessee St. TE AC Leonard ran a nice 4.5 40 at the combine to get a little notice but at 6’2 252 lbs. that isn’t going to set the scouting world on fire, it basically makes him a really heavy WR.

Offensive Tackle:  This position was weakened when four highly rated underclassmen stayed in school; Cameron Erving-Florida St, Brandon Scherff-Iowa, La’el Collins-LSU and Cedric Ogbuehi-Texas A&M.  That left what looked like five top guys until Cyrus Kouandjio’s rough combine experience.

1. Jake Matthews   Texas A&M
2. Greg Robinson   Auburn
3. Taylor Lewan   Michigan
4. Zack Martin   Notre Dame
5. *TBD*  Cyrus Kouandjio   Alabama

Greg Robinson put on a show at the combine and he did so well he didn’t even work out at Auburn’s pro day (leaving on a high note, George Costanza would be proud).  On many prospect rankings Robinson has passed Matthews and he very well may be drafted first but Matthews is still my choice for the top spot.  Matthews is a plug and play player; draft him, start him and don’t worry about the position for the next decade.  He can play left or right tackle equally well and unlike last year’s top tackles (Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel and Lane Johnson) Matthews looks like a future perennial Pro Bowler to me.  Robinson has a very high ceiling and you can’t teach a man that big to be that athletic but he is far from a finished product.  When it comes to a blind side protector for your franchise QB I will take the sure thing every time.  Taylor Lewan had started to drop like a rock because of his less than impressive senior season and the thought that he just isn’t athletic enough to play LT in the NFL.  His combine performance reversed that but the truth is he is best suited to RT and he could excel there.  He will struggle against the elite outside edge rushers and that would be far more problematic at LT than RT.  Zack Martin is a tad short at 6’4 for your typical NFL tackle but the kid is a tactician and he understands leverage and rarely gets overwhelmed.  Most teams initially thought Martin would be an NFL guard and he may still turn out to be best suited there but his Senior Bowl week and his work outs have guaranteed he’ll get a shot to play OT to start with.  Kouandjio’s medical exam at the combine showed an arthritic knee condition that has thrown his draft stock into a free fall.  I put him fifth because no one has really stepped up to take the fifth spot away from him.  Antonio Richardson (Tennessee) looks the part until you watch him play and then you leave feeling unsatisfied.  Morgan Moses (Virginia) and Jack Mewhort (Ohio St) are a couple of grizzled veterans who can certainly play but aren’t overwhelming prospects.  If Kouandjio can get one team to look past the medical reports he still has the more upside than all of the guys below him.

Sleeper: James Hurst   North Carolina

Hurst is regarded as a late round pick and some of that has to do with the fact that he broke his fibula in the last game of the season and may not get to fully work out for teams before the draft.  He seems to be recovering and there is talk that he will work out at North Carolina’s pro day but Hurst wasn’t going to blow anyone away even if he was 100%.  He doesn’t make scouts say “wow” but this is a lunch pail type of player that every team needs.  Hurst started 49 games at LT over the past four years taking over the job as a freshman.  That’s impressive for anyone and he has the ability to play at the NFL level and he’s the type of guy you cheer for.

Offensive Guard/Center:  I’m copping out on listing five of each of these guys because I haven’t really see much beyond the top guys at this position and what I have seen of others isn’t worth talking about.

Guards:

1. Xavier Su’a-Filo   UCLA
2. David Yankey   Stanford
3. Gabe Jackson   Mississippi St.

Centers:

1. Travis Swanson   Arkansas
2. Weston Richburg   Colorado St.
3. Marcus Martin   USC

Su’a-Filo is an athletic guy that can move but is stout at the point of attack and most importantly he can fit into any blocking scheme and dominate.  Yankey will excel at OG and his experience playing in Stanford’s pro-style offense will make his transition pretty easy.  He may also get a look by some teams at OT because of his 6’6 frame and athleticism.  Gabe Jackson is a mauler at 336 lbs. and is great at the point of attack.  He struggles a bit moving down field and blocking at the second level but he dominates inside.  Swanson is a taller center who moves with a fluidity you don’t see very often on the offensive line.  He’s physically mature and has a lot of experience.  Weston Richburg is an undersized center at less than 300 lbs. but he doesn’t lack for strength on the field.  He’s very experienced after starting all 49 games of his career.  Martin may be the most physically gifted of the centers but he only started for a year and if I’m drafting a center I want a guy that has been through the fire so to speak.

Sleeper:  Cyril Richardson   Baylor

It’s tough to call a guy that was the top ranked OG going into the season a sleeper but Richardson’s workouts haven’t gone well and he’s tumbling down the board at the moment.  Richardson is a massive human being at 6’5 329 lbs. but his numbers make him seem slow and not very athletic so teams are devaluing him.  This happened last year to a guy named Larry Warford and he fell to the third round where the Detroit Lions gladly scooped him up.  Warford had a wonderful year and the team that grabs Richardson will be just as delighted this time next year.  Richardson is mauler and nothing he does is pretty but it is highly effective and he will be a dominant guard for someone.   

 

 

 

I love watching the scouting combine because it gives me a chance to see prospects all in the same context.  Most of the drills they do in Indianapolis have absolutely nothing to do with actually playing the game of football but it can give you an insight in to how seriously a prospect takes his preparation.  Some of the drills are completely useless depending on the position a prospect will play, trust me when I say that DT Louis Nix’s 40 time is about as important as the number of reps any CB can do on the bench press.  The best front offices in the NFL don’t overreact to the numbers but players can throw up red flags if they don’t live up to the expectation.  Some players can open eyes by outperforming expectations and the vast majority of players will simply confirm what most teams already know.  The most talked about event at the combine is always the 40 yard dash and millions have been made by those who did well and lost by those who didn’t and unfortunately (for the fastest players) without Al Davis still around much less will be wasted on the unknown guy who ran really fast, sorry Dri Archer.

The Headline Makers

Jadeveon Clowney   DE   South Carolina:

The most talked about player at the combine is the most likely number one pick and after his impressive showing in front of all the scouts, coaches and GM’s I am about 95% sure Clowney is going to go #1 in the draft.  I’m also about 50/50 on the odds that the Texans are the ones making that pick.  Clowney didn’t surprise anyone with his fast 40 yard time or his explosive vertical and broad jump numbers, every scout knew it was coming because Clowney’s physical attributes have never been in doubt.  He is one of the rare physical specimens you only find in the NFL, a man that is 6’5, 266 pounds and can run 40 yards in about four and half seconds.  He measures up to the physical freaks like Vernon Davis and Jevon Kearse that have come before him but that isn’t the problem with Clowney.  Desire, heart and dedication are the things GM’s and coaches are trying to figure out about him.  His college coach Steve Spurrier didn’t do him any favors last week when he basically said Clowney isn’t a hard worker (I’m paraphrasing). I’m not sure that the Texans pass on him for that reason but they should pass on him because he is not a schematic fit in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 defense.  The Texans drafting Clowney for Crennel’s defense is like buying a Ferrari to drive back and forth to work, that is not what it’s built for.

Johnny Manziel   QB   Texas A&M:

The next most talked about player was Manziel because he is also in consideration for Houston with the #1 pick in the draft.  Manziel didn’t throw but he did work out and he proved his athleticism by running one of the fastest 40’s at QB and being towards the top in the vertical and broad jump.  Manziel’s short comings, pardon the pun, is that he measured in under 6 feet tall.  Manziel is a playmaker but he is not a pocket passer and his ability to go through his progressions is questionable.  He has a tendency to take off out of the pocket if his first read isn’t open and that makes NFL coaches wonder why.  The offensive line at Texas A&M was pretty good so Manziel didn’t face the kind of pressure that would make it necessary for him to break the pocket as often as he did.  His lack of height is a concern and while some will point to the fact that he is eerily similar in almost every physical way to Seahawks QB Russell Wilson I will say that Wilson is a better drop back passer and he doesn’t use his athleticism as a crutch the way Manziel does.  Manziel’s off the field celebrity has grown since he became the first freshman to ever win the Heisman two years ago and his “Johnny Football” persona is a concern that teams are taking into consideration.  If the Texans decide to roll the dice with Manziel they may be inclined to sign a veteran like Matt Cassel who can come in and give him a chance to learn and not be thrown to wolves right away.

Michael Sam   DE/OLB   Missouri:

Easily the most talked about eventual 5^th or 6^th round pick in the history of the scouting combine.  Michael Sam went to Indianapolis to show scouts what he can be on the field regardless of his off the field life.  Unfortunately he proved what the scouts already suspected and that is that he is a defensive ‘tweener.  He isn’t big enough or strong enough to be an every down DE and he isn’t fast enough or athletic enough to make the transition to OLB full time.  Sam can find a place in the NFL as a pass rushing specialist and a special team’s player but the combine didn’t help his case for being drafted any higher than the 5^th round.

I can’t talk about Michael Sam without addressing his coming out a few weeks ago.  So much has been made about the acceptance of a gay player in the locker room of whatever team drafts Sam but I think people have a fundamental misunderstanding about the generation of the players in the NFL.  The average age of an NFL player is around 25 years old and that makes a huge difference in the acceptance level Sam is going to face.  The reason that Sam’s teammates at Missouri had no problem after he told them last fall about his sexual orientation is because they are between the ages of 18 and 23 and to them being gay wasn’t an issue.  They judged Michael Sam based on who he is as a person and not by his sexual orientation.  The only reason this is a story is because the media wants to make it one and any GM, coach or owner that decides they don’t want a gay player on their team is as ignorant as the owners that didn’t want black players in the NFL or major league baseball.  I’m not going to compare Michael Sam to Jackie Robinson because Sam is not going to face the level of discrimination that Robinson faced and Sam is unlikely to be the Hall of Fame caliber player Robinson was.  He will undoubtedly run into a teammate or three that acts like a moron and doesn’t “understand” someone being gay.  The Miami Dolphins proved that idiots exist in all work places including an NFL locker room but Sam may benefit from the whole Dolphins fiasco because it means Commissioner Goodell can push to install some workplace rules without it being because of the first openly gay player entering the NFL.  It may be the sports world but everyone should be able to go to their job and not face discrimination in any form.  There is only one thing I dislike about Michael Sam personally and that is the fact that he went to Missouri but that is not discrimination because I despise all Missouri Tigers equally regardless of sexual orientation.

The guys that helped themselves (and teams won’t regret drafting them higher than originally though)

Blake Bortles   QB   Central Florida:

Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr all elected not to throw at the combine which meant Bortles had the spotlight all to himself.  Manziel, Bridgewater and Bortles are the three top QB’s in the draft and Carr is the only other guy that has a chance to break into the first round and with those three on the sidelines Bortles took center stage and made the most of it.  He is the big, physical pocket passer of the top three guys and the question about him is why doesn’t he have a stronger arm?  When a QB measures in a 6’5 232 lbs. you expect him to have a cannon for an arm but he didn’t really show it off during games and scouts wondered if it’s there.  He proved to everyone in Indianapolis that he has all the arm strength needed to be an NFL QB, he doesn’t have arm strength of say Brett Favre but he had all he needs.  I’m not sure he did enough to make Bill O’Brien and the Houston Texans fall in love with the idea of taking him #1 but he is certainly in the conversation.

Greg Robinson   OT   Auburn:

Robinson is the “dancing bear”.  What I mean by that is he is a huge hulking human being at 6’5 332 lbs. and he is nimble on his feet.  He is still raw as a prospect because he came out of Auburn after his redshirt sophomore year meaning he’s just three years removed from high school graduation.  He is still young and developing but he is the type of raw developing prospect that teams love because they think they can mold him into the next Orlando Pace.  Robinson will have his growing pains and he won’t be the plug and play player that Jake Matthews is but he has a higher ceiling and many times team will gamble on greatness instead of taking the sure thing.  Matthews is the sure thing.

Darqueze Dennard   CB   Michigan St.:

Dennard was the Thorpe Award winner for a reason and he is a big physical corner and he is in a heated battle with Oklahoma St. corner Justin Gilbert to be the first cover corner off the board.  Gilbert ran a blazing fast 40 which was expected but it was Dennard running a 4.51 that got scouts taking.  Physicality is Dennard’s game, he loves to jam receivers at line, but the fact that he ran fast enough that it isn’t seen as his weakness anymore could give him the edge over Gilbert.  If a team like the Detroit Lions at #10 has a choice between a fast corner or a fast and physical corner it seems like an easy choice.

Jordan Matthews   WR   Vanderbilt:

Considering Matthews is the all-time leading WR in just about every category in SEC history he should not have had anything to prove at the combine but that’s not how the scouting world works.  He is 6’3 212 lbs and is a natural pass catcher but the big knock on him was that he doesn’t have elite speed…well so much for that.  Matthews blazed a time of 4.46 in the 40 and now teams can watch his game tape and stop trying to talk themselves out of liking him.  Matthews isn’t the playmaker that Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans or Marqise Lee is but he’s now in a dogfight with Odell Beckham and Brandin Cooks to be the fourth WR drafted.

Odell Beckham   WR   LSU:

Beckham went to the combine and showed the speed (4.43 40 yard dash) necessary to prove that his playmaking is not a fluke.  Beckham is the quick twitch athlete with speed that Jordan Matthews isn’t but he is 5’11 not 6’3 like Matthews.  Both WR’s showed that they have a place in the NFL and who gets drafted first will likely depend on team needs more than on talent.

Brandin Cooks   WR   Oregon St.:

I would tell you how good Cooks looked running the 40 but I blinked and I missed it.  4.33 is a ridiculous number in the 40 and when you couple that with Cooks production you get Tavon Austin without the hype.  Austin went early in last year’s draft because of the lack of top end talent at the position unfortunately for Cooks he doesn’t have that luxury.  There are seven legitimate first round WR prospects in this draft (Watkins, Evans, Lee, Matthews, Beckham, Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin).

Aaron Donald   DT   Pittsburgh:

Pitt DT Aaron Donald gets my vote for MVP of the combine.  An undersized DT at barely 6’1 285 lbs. the case against Donald is pretty simply, he isn’t big enough to play DT in the NFL.  Sorry but that argument is ludicrous. At 285 lbs. he ran the 40 in 4.68 seconds and did 35 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench press.  Speed and power make for a lethal combination inside on the defensive line.  The other major plus for Donald is that if you ask his coaches, his teammates and his opponents to sum him up in one word that word is likely to be relentless or some synonym of it.  Donald’s motor is always going 100 mph and he doesn’t let up.  He has been favorably compared to current Cincinnati Bengal Geno Atkins and the great John Randle, two outstanding undersized DT’s.  Between his fantastic week at the Senior Bowl and his phenomenal work at the combine Donald should be a 1^st round pick.  One more thing, if Jadeveon Clowney had Aaron Donald’s motor he would be the unquestioned #1 pick in this draft and possibly the greatest player to ever play football.

Keith McGill   CB   Utah:

I don’t know a lot about McGill just yet; sorry I didn’t watch many Utah games this season.  I can tell you that when a 6’3 211 lbs. CB runs a 4.51 40, has a 39 inch vertical and hits 10’9 in his broad jump scouts start to drool.  McGill looked pretty smooth in the DB drills also so he checks off all the boxes and since this isn’t a great crop of CB’s especially after the first three McGill may make a run up the board very quickly.

 

The guys that helped themselves (and teams will regret it when they take them too high)

Bradley Roby   CB   Ohio St.:

Roby is an uber-athlete.  He ran 4.39 in the 40, had a 38.5 inch vertical and a 10’4 broad jump.  He passes the eyeball test at 5’11 195 lbs. and someone is going to draft him on reputation unfortunately for them I don’t see him living up to it.  Put in the tape of the Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin game and watch Jared Abbrederis abuse Roby all day long.  He can play CB in the NFL but his combine numbers are going to convince some team to take him at the end of the first round and he just isn’t that good.

Taylor Lewan   OT   Michigan:

Lewan had started a precipitous fall on draft boards after a rough season that ended with a less than stellar bowl game for the long time Wolverine LT.  Teams that watched his tape saw a less than athletic LT that struggled and looked like a poor man’s Jake Long, a player that would almost certainly have to move to RT in the NFL.  Then Lewan put on show in Indianapolis running the fastest 40 time of all offensive linemen (4.87), had a 30.5 inch vertical and broad jump of 9’9.  Teams now see the athleticism they didn’t see on tape.  He is unquestionably the third best OT in the draft behind Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson but now teams are back to talking about him going in the top 10.  Lewan’s combine athleticism has never translated to field he has never been that type of offensive lineman.  He is a big powerful mauler that does fit better at RT than LT and any team taking him in the top 10 and expecting him to be your LT is going to regret it.  He will be overvalued because the OT position is lacking the top end quality like last year’s draft had or next year’s draft potentially has.  If a team takes Lewan and puts him at RT like San Diego did last year with DJ Fluker than he could justify a top 15 selection but making him a top 10 pick as LT is a mistake.

 

The guys that wish the draft took place the day after the college season ended (aka the combine didn’t go well for them).

Cyrus Kouandjio   OT   Alabama

There were four top prospects that didn’t work out because of medical issues that came up during the combine’s medical evaluations; Dee Ford (back issue), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (foot), Stephon Tuitt (foot) and Kouandjio.  While the other three have issues that can heal up and they can work out at a later time Kouandjio’s ailment was reported to be an arthritic knee problem.  If there is one term a prospect doesn’t want associated with his medical evaluation arthritic comes in right next to degenerative.  The idea of a player with an arthritic knee joint is going to drop Kouandjio from a likely first round pick to the middle rounds.  Kouandjio had enough issues after struggling this year on the field and his last on the field impression from Alabama’s bowl game wasn’t doing him any favor but teams still saw a guy with great upside.  That upside is no more because teams will question just how long Kouandjio can play football and if he’ll last long enough to live up to his potential.

Jarvis Landry   WR   LSU:

I was watching the NFL.com feed just before Landry’s WR group took the field and Matt Millen, the former GM of the Detroit Lions (and one of the worst talent evaluators ever) couldn’t stop talking about how much he liked Landry.  I immediately dropped him one round in my mind and if any GM’s were within earshot they may have taken Landry off their boards entirely.  Landry then proceeded to have as bad of a workout as he possibly could have; I’m just calling it the Millen curse.  He is an undersized WR at 5’11 and his 40 time of 4.77 was only a tenth of a second faster than Taylor Lewan.  His vertical was unimpressive for a WR at 28.5 inches and he looked just as slow and pedestrian during drills.  If teams watch LSU’s bowl game tape they are going to see Landry being blanketed by Iowa true freshman Desmond King and that isn’t going to win him any fans.  Landry isn’t a bad player but there was no prospect at the combine that did their entire workout who hurt their draft stock more than Landry.  While his college teammate Odell Beckham was making himself look like the next Steve Smith Landry made himself look like the next Jason Avant.

Ka’Deem Carey   RB   Arizona:

The specialization of the RB position has led to the devaluing of RB’s in the draft and that was never more evident than last year when no RB’s were drafted in the first round.  This year is no different as guys like Carlos Hyde, Andre Williams and Jeremy Hill are seen as big bruising runners while De’Anthony Thomas, Lache Seastrunk and Tre Mason are the quicker shiftier guys.  The one player that looked like he could be a top all-around back was Ka’Deem Carey right up until his 40 time of 4.70 flashed up on the board and once again there is little to no chance there will be a RB taken in the first round of the 2014 draft.  Carey is a good back and if he goes to the right team he could easily be starting in the NFL next year and he will be productive but RB’s that run 4.7 don’t go in the first round of the draft even with his overall skillset.

Quick Hit Draft thoughts 

–          Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater didn’t run or throw at the combine and he was barely talked about in the shadow of Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel but if the Texans take a QB #1 it should be Bridgewater.  We are at the over analysis portion of the draft calendar and teams are overthinking everything.  Bridgewater can step into the huddle and help a veteran team like the Texans win again next year.  You can’t honestly say that about Bortles or Manziel.

–          Bridgewater is my favorite QB in this draft but a close second is Georgia QB Aaron Murray.  Murray couldn’t work out due to an injury he suffered during the season and the fact that he is barely 6’0 tall means he probably won’t go until at least the 3^rd round but someone is getting a very good QB late.  Murray has started for four years at Georgia so he’s been through the SEC wars and he knows how to lead.  He is also possibly the most accurate QB in this class and in the NFL the throwing windows are tighter and Murray can thread them.  Murray can be the next Drew Brees and Brees has been pretty damn good in the NFL.

–          I agree with Mike Mayock’s assessment that Buffalo OLB Khalil Mack is the best defender in this draft and while I don’t think I’d take him #1 overall if I’m the Texans I do think he has a longer career than Clowney.  If he goes to the right 3-4 defensive team he is my early pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

–          UCLA OLB Anthony Barr is still raw in terms of his LB skills but he is a playmaker that some defensive coordinator is going to get to mold into a star.  Barr isn’t going to go as high as Clowney or Mack and he probably won’t make the instant impact Mack will but in 3 or 4 years he might be on Mack’s level.  He has only been playing LB for two years and he’s just scratching the surface.

–          If Sammy Watkins goes to a team with a good QB he would be a lock to be Offensive Rookie of the Year but in order for that to happen he would have to fall to Atlanta at #6, a team that is unlikely to take a WR that high, or fall all the way to Matthew Stafford’s Lions at #10, also unlikely.  He can always hope that the team that takes him in the top 5 comes back and grabs Aaron Murray in round 2 or 3.

–          Houston needs to entice someone to trade up into the #1 spot and the two most likely scenarios I see for that are Cleveland at #4 or Atlanta at #6.  Cleveland would be moving up to secure Johnny Manziel and while I’m not a big Manziel fan this would be completely understandable.  Drafting Manziel is shooting for the moon and the Cleveland Browns have nothing to lose.  Since they reentered the league after the original Browns left for Baltimore the franchise has been a dumpster fire.  Tim Couch, Brady Quinn and Brandon Weeden have been their three first round QB’s and gambling on greatness may be the only hope to turn the franchise around.  I’m usually an advocate for not doing that sort of thing and a franchise like the Texans shouldn’t but for the sake of Browns fans I say go for it.  The idea that Atlanta would make a move may seem strange but they would be moving up to grab Clowney.  While the Falcons have other notable holes (OT, TE, S, LB) the move to get Clowney would be filling a need they have ignored for too long and it would give their defense a huge lift.  Clowney would be a great fit in their scheme and he might not be a bust if he goes to a team he could help get back to winning instead of being in the wrong defense or being on a terrible team.  Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff is not afraid to make a big move, he did it a few years ago to get Julio Jones and he is not likely to be gun shy due to the success that one has been.

 

Iowa vs. LSU in the Outback Bowl

I haven’t seen a lot of LSU this year but I did catch a few games and I was seriously impressed by their skill position talent.  WR’s Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are both top notch and Jeremy Hill is a terrific RB.  Terrence Magee offers a nice change of pace to Hill in the backfield and while the offensive line is pretty young it is very talented.  All of this would scare me as a Hawkeye fan if senior QB Zach Mettenberger wasn’t injured or if the Tigers had someone with actual experience taking over for him.  True freshman QB Anthony Jennings is Mettenberger’s replacement and while he looks like he could have a fantastic future his inexperience is going to be his undoing against a veteran Iowa defense with over a month to prepare for this game.  After watching Phil Parker’s defense dismantle Nebraska’s inexperienced QB in Iowa’s last game my feeling is that this could be more of the same.  The Cornhuskers had a great running game that Iowa seemed to stuff at every turn and while LSU has far superior WR’s it is a moot point if the defense can confuse the QB.  LSU may make a big play here or there but it will tough for their offense to sustain drives.

All of this means that this game will likely come down to how Iowa’s offense plays against LSU’s defense.  The Tigers are missing the big name defenders they have had in the past like Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu or even Kevin Minter but that doesn’t mean they aren’t good.  The DT’s Ego Ferguson and Anthony Johnson will make it tough to gain yards up the middle and safety Craig Loston is a veteran in the deep middle.  Iowa needs to use its power running against the edges as LSU’s DE’s and LB’s are not very big.  The Hawkeye’s have struggled at times offensively against the better defenses they faced this year and while LSU’s defense is better than Nebraska’s they aren’t in the same league as Michigan St.

If the Hawkeye’s can avoid turning the ball over, play defense like they have most of the year and be efficient on offense they will win this bowl game and I believe they will do just that.  That would be a good thing considering how the Big Ten has looked so far.

 

Quick Hits

–          Black Monday started late on Sunday night in the NFL as the Cleveland Browns fired Rob Chudzinski after only one season as head coach.  This was the WTF moment of lunacy we seem to see every year.  There is always that one coach that gets fired and everyone say “What?”  This year it was Chudzinski, not because his 4-12 record was so spectacular that no one could believe it but because he was just hired last January and he basically had to juggle QB’s all year due to ineffectiveness or injury.  This is why the Browns are the Browns and can’t seem to make any headway.  In the NFL it helps to have some continuity at QB and at head coach.

–          The least surprising firing was that of Mike Shanahan in Washington.  Shanahan sealed his fate a few weeks ago when he benched franchise QB Robert Griffin III which basically made Dan Snyder’s head explode.  Snyder is going to go throw a bajillion dollars at Baylor head coach Art Briles because he already has a relationship with RGIII.  I hope Briles is smart enough to tell Snyder to shove it; there isn’t enough money on the planet that would make working for Snyder worth it.

–          Greg Schiano got the boot in Tampa Bay and GM Mark Dominik followed him out the door.  The Glazer family realized they needed a reboot let’s see if they actually figure it out this time.

–          Jim Schwartz got the axe in Detroit and that’s just what happens when your team takes a step forward a couple of years ago and then takes about 15 steps backwards over the last two years.  I do think the GM should get canned too; Schwartz isn’t the one that has neglected the secondary and the offensive line for years.

–          Leslie Frazier is out in Minnesota and I’m guessing Christian Ponder and Josh Freeman won’t be far behind.  This is what happens when a coach refuses to play the one QB (Matt Cassel) that actually played half way decent (until it was too late anyway).

–          Shanahan is probably going to go home and collect his $7 million salary from Daniel Snyder for a year and then see what he wants to do.  Chudzinski is reportedly due a $10.5 million buyout from the Browns so he can be picky about his next job as an offensive coordinator.  Jim Schwartz will be a coveted defensive coordinator candidate and I’m guessing Jeff Fisher has already made a call because he needs a great defensive coordinator to help him in St. Louis or he might get the boot next year at this time.  Leslie Frazier will also get a lot of calls to be a defensive coordinator for someone.  Greg Schiano is probably headed back to the college game and he may find a mighty soft landing spot at Penn St. once Bill O’Brien takes the Texans job as rumored.

–          Rex Ryan has been retained as head coach of the New York Jets (the bettors took a beating on this one).  Somehow Jason Garrett appears safe in Dallas.  That leaves just Mike Munchak of the Titans and Dennis Allen of the Raiders as coaches that might get fired.  The early dismissal of Gary Kubiak in Houston combined with the five firings on Black Monday/Sunday night means the NFL is already at its average of six openings meaning the Titans and Raiders decisions are a pick ‘em.

–          The one other big job out there is The University of Texas job about to be vacated by Mack Brown.  Very little has been said about candidates since Brown made his resignation public and I give Texas credit for letting him coach the bowl game without the constant chatter of his replacement.  Texas has the money and the ego to aim high at guys like Jim Harbaugh, Chip Kelly and Nick Saban but I think they are going to find that even though the paychecks at Texas would be bigger the Texas job isn’t better than the jobs they already have.  This is how I see it playing out; Texas hires someone from the B-list (Mike Gundy, Bo Pelini, Les Miles, good coaches but not on Texas’ A-list), said coach is there 3-4 years but fails to live up to Mack Brown’s legacy and then Texas replaces that coach with a guy like Chad Morris (current offensive coordinator at Clemson) after he has had a head coaching job for a couple of years.  As they say it coaching “it’s better to be the guy replacing the guy who replaced the legend”.

The Hawkeyes go to the Outback Bowl

As optimistic as I usually am about the Iowa Hawkeyes going into the season even I didn’t think I would be typing that headline at the end of this year.  Finishing 8-4 is a pretty impressive improvement from last year’s 4-8 record but it is actually the play on the field that I was most impressed with overall.  Most people (myself included) thought Iowa would beat Northern Illinois to start the season and when the Hawks couldn’t pull it off it looked like we might be in for a long year but NIU was pretty impressive all season (until the MAC Championship anyway).  Losing to Ohio St. and Wisconsin was to be expected and Michigan St.’s turnaround from last year was even more remarkable than Iowa’s.  If Mark Dantonio hadn’t made the boneheaded decision to put Andrew Maxwell into the end of Notre Dame game they might be facing Florida St. for a National Championship.  Those are Iowa’s four losses, no inexplicable loss to a terrible Purdue team or getting beat by a Northwestern team simply because they couldn’t figure out how to stop them.  The Hawkeyes came out on top of rivalry games against Iowa St, Minnesota and Nebraska, the trophy case looks a little better these days.  With the recent news that LT Brandon Scherff is returning next year for his senior season the future looks a lot brighter.

I openly questioned whether Kirk Ferentz could get the Hawkeyes turned around one more time but Ferentz did what Ferentz does, he stayed the course believed in what he was doing and didn’t let the noise get to him.  There was never a “hot seat” for Ferentz, his contract made sure of that, but he didn’t just sit around collecting his paycheck and hoping things would get better.  He made staff changes (Bobby Kennedy and Chris White) that helped add to the new blood from last year (Greg Davis, Brian Ferentz and Levar Woods).  The attrition that had hurt the team from previous years seems to have stopped and for the most part this team stayed healthy throughout the year.  I’m looking forward to what this staff can do with some continuity amongst themselves and continuity of the roster.  Bringing back a starting QB that played pretty well, a stable of RB’s, three offensive line starters (including a future top 10 pick at LT), and a solid group at TE should help make the offense next year pretty good.  Finding some playmakers at WR will be priority #1 during bowl prep and spring practice for Greg Davis.  Phil Parker came into his own as a defensive play caller at the end of the season and his blitzing during the Nebraska game was a thing of beauty.  Next year he has to deal with replacing those three outstanding LB’s but hopefully he’ll get some pass rushers at DE pretty soon.  I have to admit I am thoroughly impressed by the turnaround of the Hawkeyes and I’m looking forward to the Outback Bowl and beating LSU.  It won’t be easy (WR’s Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry will keep Phil Parker up nights I’m sure) but I think the Hawkeye’s pull it off.  The new QB for LSU could be a wildcard, he’s talented but untested and against a veteran defense that has weeks to prepare I’m feeling optimistic but then again don’t I always.

 

 

Quick hits

–          This Iowa basketball team is fun to watch.  You never know who’s going to step up to help out Devyn Marble.  Marble is the constant but everybody from Zach McCabe to Gabe Olaseni to Peter Jok has stepped up at one time or another.  That might be this team’s best asset because it doesn’t matter how much game film you watch it’s impossible to game plan to stop nine different guys.  The Hawkeyes go to Ames to take on a ranked Iowa St team on Friday the 13^th.  The first time in 26 years the Hawkeyes and Cyclones will meet as ranked opponents (that was the stat I heard the other night during the broadcast, I assume it’s accurate).  Big game, both ways.

–          The Seattle Mariners gave Robinson Cano a 10 year $240 million deal.  Cano is a soon-to-be 32 year old second baseman whose power is likely to be affected by his move from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Field.  The idiocy of MLB teams astounds me sometimes. The only time a team has signed a player to a 10 year contract and not ended up regretting it was when the Yankees signed Derek Jeter to a 10 year deal…he was 26 when they did it.  The only time a player should get a 10 year contract from a team is if Mike Trout hits free agency when he’s 26.  Well done Seattle you just signed yourself up for mediocrity for the next decade.  Enjoy paying Cano $24 million dollars when he’s 40 years old.

–          The University of Texas may or may not be firing head coach Mack Brown.  Mack Brown may or may not be stepping down as head coach at the University of Texas. Nick Saban may or may not be replacing Mack Brown as head coach at the University of Texas. Nick Saban may or may not be signing an extension to remain head coach at the University of Alabama.  The only thing I’m sure of is Nick Saban is about to get a lot richer and things are about to get interesting down in Austin.  If new Texas AD Steve Patterson fires Mack Brown and doesn’t get Nick Saban he better make sure he doesn’t end up with Todd Graham as the new Longhorn’s coach because he won’t be the Texas AD for long if he does.  Although I’m sure the Texas job is Graham’s “dream job”, he apparently dreams a lot.

–          The Houston Texans fired Gary Kubiak after they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, their eleventh loss in a row.  Owner Bob McNair was far more patient with Kubiak than most NFL owners would have been and this year’s debacle certainly called for his dismissal.  McNair mentioned Lovie Smith as a possible name in his coaching search but I would advise him against that move.  The Texans defensive personnel is designed to fit a 3-4 defense and Smith is a Tampa-2 type coach if you need an example of how that doesn’t work just watch a Cowboys game.  Square pegs don’t fit in round holes.  If he wants a defensive coach call Ray Horton in Cleveland otherwise look at Ken Whisenhunt and get him to bring in a 3-4 defensive coordinator.

–          USC got their man in Steve Sarkisian and Washington got an excellent coach to replace Sarkisian in Boise St.’s Chris Peterson.  A lot of people think Washington upgraded and wonder why USC chose Sarkisian when Peterson was also involved in the search.  This is a prime example of coaches fitting their environment.  Sarkisian was the guy USC wanted when Pete Carroll left for the Seahawks but he had just taken the Washington job and he wasn’t about to pull a Lane Kiffin (obviously it would have been called a Sarkisian if he had).  This time the timing was right.  Peterson has turned down numerous jobs over the last several years because of his comfort level at Boise St. but he had outgrown that job.  Washington doesn’t bring the pressure or the media scrutiny that USC has and is a much better fit for Peterson’s low-key personality.  Bravo to both schools on those hires and double bravo to USC AD Pat Haden he has replace Kevin O’Neill and Lane Kiffin with Andy Enfield and Steve Sarkisian in the last year, that’s a good job by an AD.

–          The college coaching carousel hasn’t spun out of control too much this offseason (that could all change when Mack Brown is out at Texas especially if Saban takes the job).  Obviously the USC and Washington jobs were filled quickly and it looks like Boise St. and Wake Forest have filled their vacancies.  Florida and Nebraska decided not to fire their head coaches even though it was a distinct possibility.  Jeremy Foley was correct to not fire Will Muschamp after this season.  Florida won 11 games last year and this year they had an unbelievable amount of injuries.  Muschamp didn’t forget how to coach and I think Florida will be rewarded for their patience.  Nebraska wins a lot of games under Bo Pelini and he certainly shouldn’t be fired based on the results on the field a better argument for canning Pelini is that he is a terrible representative of the University, in short he’s an asshat.  I hope the Hawkeyes have begun a new tradition of beating the Cornhuskers every year.

–          The Texans got the ball rolling on the NFL coaching carousel but trust me it’s just the beginning.  The Mike Shanahan saga in Washington will be interesting and I don’t care what Jerry Jones says now I won’t believe Jason Garrett and his staff are safe until about March.  Leslie Frazier is a goner in Minnesota and I think Rex Ryan is toast with the Jets.  Titans head coach Mike Munchak is probably going to be looking for a nice offensive line coaching job after this season.  I think Greg Schiano in Tampa Bay, Dennis Allen in Oakland and Joe Philbin in Miami are all coaching for their jobs over the last three weeks.

–          If one of the jobs (there should be 5-8) in the NFL isn’t filled by Cleveland defensive coordinator Ray Horton the NFL needs to seriously reconsider its hiring practices.  Cleveland’s defense has been pretty good this year and their offense has rarely helped them out.

–          I’ll be shocked if Michigan St. defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi isn’t a head coach in college football next season but he deserves a better job than UConn or Bowling Green.  Maybe he should wait until next year the Nebraska and Illinois jobs should be open by then.

I should get around to a Iowa/LSU Outback Bowl preview before I go into NFL Draft mode so stay tuned.