Los Angeles Chargers

I am tentatively giving the Chargers the benefit of the doubt in this division but that might change if their injury issues pile up again.  It’s already started in the secondary with Jason Verrett out for the year with Achilles injury and Trevon Williams having a leg issue.  The offense has the passing game down as long as Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen stay healthy.  TE Hunter Henry is also out for the year and while they let Antonio Gates go in the off season he’s still available and if no one steps up during camp they may bring in old reliable for one more encore.  Where this team needs work is it’s rushing attack.  They were just under 100 yards per game and when you have a talent like Melvin Gordon leading the way that’s unacceptable.  The offensive line struggled last season especially on the inside.  The team signed veteran center Mike Pouncey and he should stabilize a position that has been unstable for far too long.  The return of Forrest Lamp who missed his rookie year last year with an injury should solidify the interior of the line.  Russell Okung is okay at LT and Dan Feeney should be better at LG so the real weak link is RT Joe Barksdale, they will try to get by for another year with him because they have no one to replace him right now.

The defense was fantastic against the pass last season and absolutely dreadful versus the run.  DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram bring the heat while the secondary is outstanding.  The LB corps is well below average hence the reason they can’t stop the run.  Getting Denzel Perryman healthy for the season would help but it may be up to a couple of rookies to improve the LB corps.  Uchenna Nwosu can be a pass rush specialist but because of his size he’s going to have to play as a LB.  Kyzir White was a safety in college but he’s going to line up as an undersized LB for the Chargers.  His speed and downhill tackling should help against ball carriers.  The real help should come in the form of rookie safety Derwin James.  He will be all over the field and he can bring some pop against the run too.  With Jason Verrett out for the year again and Trevon Williams hurt too Desmond King is going to get some playing time at CB opposite Casey Hayward.  The team needs him to step up to continue their top notch secondary play.

This team hasn’t had the best off season with both Jason Verrett and Hunter Henry going down for the year.  However, they were good on defense without Verrett last year against the pass so the should be fine.  Henry has a lot of potential and they were hoping he would live up to it but if they guys they have don’t cut it Antonio Gates is just a phone call away.  I think they get better this year if the offensive line stays healthy and with the additions of Pouncey and Lamp.  Melvin Gordon should find more running room with those two paving the way up the middle.  Anthony Lynn did a nice job in his first year as head coach of this team and he has two fantastic coordinators in Ken Whisenhunt (offense) and Gus Bradley (defense).  The division is in a bit of flux with Denver having a new QB and not a great year under Vance Joseph, Kansas City breaking in Patrick Mahomes with a suspect defense and Oakland having Jon Gruden hoping it’s 1997 again, only it’s 2018.  I’m giving the division to the Chargers.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos traded away Trevor Simien and signed Case Keenum to be their new QB.  That looks like quite the upgrade going off last year’s performance but Keenum isn’t exactly a proven commodity.  The team let CJ Anderson go and rookie Royce Freeman looks like the guy at RB.  Freeman is outperforming Devontae Booker in the preseason even if Vance Joseph is having a hard time recognizing it.  WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have had a couple of down years and while a lot of that can be traced to poor QB play there is no denying both guys are getting older.  They have unproven players at TE in Jeff Heuerman and Jake Butt.  The offensive line imported Jared Veldheer to replace Menelik Watson at RT and while it’s probably an upgrade Veldheer isn’t exactly a world beater.  The rest of the line is average at best.

The Broncos defense continues to be top notch and with the addition of 1^st round pick Bradley Chubb their pass rush should be fantastic.  CB Bradley Roby should step in just fine for Aqib Talib and Chris Harris is one of the best CBs in the league no one talks about.  The line isn’t spectacular but they hold their own.  At ILB Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis are veterans who will be pushed by rookie Josey Jewell.  The scheme the Broncos run is built around the pass rush of Von Miller and it will continue that way except now he has Chubb to clean up on the other side.  This defense is aging so the window won’t be open for long, they are hoping the offense can carry their water otherwise it will be another disappointing year.

For me this team takes a hit because of the coaching staff.  Vance Joseph wasn’t great last year in his first year as the head coach.  He has hired Bill Musgrave as offensive coordinator and while Musgrave has had success before he seems to bounce around a lot and never really stays more than 2-3 year anywhere.  This concerns me simply because I wonder why he either feels the need to move on or is he wearing out his welcome.  The team needs a steady hand on offense as Keenum takes the reigns behind a suspect offensive line and an aging WR duo.  The team is hoping their draft class on offense of RB Royce Freeman, WR Courtland Sutton and WR DaeSean Hamilton can give a little life to the unit.  The team just feels a bit unsettled so I think they fall behind the Chargers this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

The big move is going from the consistent veteran QB Alex Smith to the high risk/high reward of 2^nd year man Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes started one game last season and while his physical talents are unquestionable the question is can he hold up all season when teams are game planning against him.  He has the benefit of having Kareem Hunt at RB, Travis Kelce at TE and Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins at WR.  Hunt started out hot last year and slowed down over the second half of the season as teams focused on stopping him.  With Mahomes deep arm and Hill and Watkins at WR the hope is Hunt finds more running room.  Kelce is one of the most dangerous TEs in the league and Mahomes would be wise to rely on him in critical situations.  Sammy Watkins was the big off season signing for the Chiefs and while I wholeheartedly believe they massively overpaid him he should make them better.  Watkins has had trouble staying healthy but he should team with Hill to be a dynamic duo.  The offensive line was pretty solid last year if unspectacular.  These guys aren’t going to the Pro Bowl but they do fine.

The defense relies pretty heavily on their OLB generating a pass rush and Tamba Hali’s time finally ran out.  Justin Houston is the focal point now but he wasn’t great last year.  They are hoping Dee Ford can finally get healthy and produce some pressure otherwise the defense might struggle.  They traded CB Marcus Peters because they were just tired of putting up with him but that’s a major blow to the secondary.  They got Kendall Fuller from Washington in the Alex Smith trade and while he has potential to be a #1 CB he isn’t on Marcus Peters’ level .  They signed David Amerson to man the other CB spot and that is basically like hoping a scratch-off lottery ticket pays off big.  Eric Berry made a miraculous return in 2016 from cancer and played great, then last year he tore his Achilles and only played in 1 game.  They are hoping he has another incredible comeback in him.  They let stalwart ILB Derrick Johnson go and they replaced him with free agent Anthony Hitchens.  Hitchens should upgrade the interior defense but they are hoping reclamation project Reggie Ragland can be his partner on the inside.  I would watch out for rookie Dorian Daniel if Ragland can’t hack it.  The defensive line should be steady but that’s all the team really asks of them.

Andy Reid is one of the better coaches in the league and he’s been doing it a long time.  This season may test him a bit more than usual.  He’s breaking in a first year starting QB in Mahomes along with a first-time offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and a first year QB coach Mike Kafka.  That’s a lot of newness for the offense.  The defense was good last year statistically but losing leaders like Hali and Johnson and the talent of Marcus Peters is going to set them back.  They have to hope Kendall Fuller can be a #1 CB and Eric Berry can return to form or their pass defense is really going to suffer.  Without a consistent pass rush, it could get really ugly.

Oakland Raiders

They say you can’t go home again but if someone is willing to give a guy $100 million over 10 years then Jon Gruden is willing to give it a shot.  I thought this could work until I heard Gruden talk about taking the game back to 1997 or whatever year he was talking about.  I do think Derek Carr is a very good QB and has potential to be great, I think Amari Cooper is a real talent at WR.  The offensive line can be very good if Donald Penn settles in at RT and Kolten Miller improves his technique at LT.  The problems lie elsewhere.  They are counting on Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin at RB, good plan 5 years ago, not so much now.  The best back on the team in the preseason has been Chris Warren III, an undrafted free agent who has looked like he belongs.  They signed Jordy Nelson, another good idea 5 years ago, and traded for Martavis Bryant, probably never a good idea.  Gruden was known as an offensive coach when he was with the Raiders and Bucs before but it’s been 10 years and things have changed in the NFL.

The defense is suspect even at full strength and with Khalil Mack holding out they are basically screwed.  DTs Eddie Vanderdoes and Justin Ellis make a nice pair inside but without Mack generating a pass rush they are useless.  For some reason they feel the ghost of Derrick Johnson is the answer at MLB, another idea from 5 years ago perhaps?  The defense lacks a playmaker without Mack and counting on someone like Bruce Irvin to become one is foolish.  Irvin says he’ll be unleashed under the new coaching staff but he’s never had more than 8 sacks in his 7-year career, that’s enough of a sample size to doubt he’ll ever do much better.  They are counting on Gareon Conley to be their #1 CB in his second year after he only played in 2 games as a rookie, that’s asking a lot.

Jon Gruden seems to be building a team meant for 2013 and that’s too bad because GM Reggie McKenzie was on a path to building a solid foundation moving forward.  Carr, Mack and Cooper are building blocks.  He had put together one of the better offensive lines in the league too.  The drafting of LT Kolton Miller would mean more if they weren’t turning his training over to Tom Cable, he of the dreadful Seahawks offensive lines of the past few seasons.  Greg Olson returns as Gruden’s offensive coordinator but he doesn’t elicit much excitement.  Signing past-their-prime free agents like Jordy Nelson, Doug Martin, Derrick Johnson and Leon Hall is not the way you fill major holes on your team.  I think the Gruden experiment is going to blow up in the team’s collective face, the only question is how long will owner Mark Davis let it ride.  It’s too bad too because I think McKenzie was on to something.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

When you’re coming off a Super Bowl win with your backup QB at the helm your offense is in pretty good shape.  Carson Wentz should be back at the helm fairly early in the season if not to start the year.  Nick Foles gives the team the ability not to rush Wentz back.  Either way the QB position is in good hands and if Wentz returns and continues his career progression he’s going to become one of the best QBs in the league.  With Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement and the ageless Darren Sproles at RB that position is fine too.  A full off season and training camp for Ajayi can only make the running game better.  Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor make a nice pair of WRs and the addition of Mike Wallace gives Wentz another weapon.  TE Zach Ertz became a favorite target last season and even though the team lost Trey Burton to free agency they replaced him with a very promising rookie Dallas Goedert.  The offensive line was one of the best in league last year and they should get a healthy Jason Peters back at LT.  When he’s healthy he’s arguably the best LT in the game.  Peters is 36 so he may not return to his previous form but either way the offensive line is an overall strength for the team.

The defense was impressive last season and while there are some changes to the personnel the unit will still be incredible.  They are built around a deep and talented defensive line.  DEs Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett and Chris Long are joined by Michael Bennett who replaces Vinny Curry.  DTs Fletcher Cox and Tim Jernigan are joined by veteran Haloti Ngata.  Ngata isn’t the dominant force he once was but as a third rotational tackle he should still be effective.  LB Jordan Hicks is coming back from an injury and he really needs to stay healthy as the team finally jettisoned perennial trade candidate Mychal Kendricks.  Nigel Bradham was the best LB on the team last year and he returns.  They need someone to step up as the third LB, Nate Gerry is penciled in right now but that could easily change.  At CB Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby are the starters but the team is hoping Sidney Jones can make a move after missing most of his rookie year with an injury.  If he’s healthy Jones is a serious talent.  The safety duo of Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod is one of the best in the league.  Corey Graham returns as a versatile veteran for the secondary.

Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl in his second season as a head coach, pulling off a feat his mentor Andy Reid couldn’t quite do in his time as the Eagles head coach.  Pederson had one of the best coaching staffs in the league last season and inevitably he lost some of his brain trust in the off season.  Offensive coordinator Frank Reich took the Colts head coaching job and QB coach John DeFilippo took the offensive coordinator job with the Vikings.  It’s now up to Mike Groh to run the offense and keep Carson Wentz’s career trajectory heading in the right direction.  Groh was the wide receivers’ coach and he’ll be helped by Assistant Head Coach/Running backs Duce Staley, he was the other finalist for promotion to coordinator.  Pederson was lucky enough to hold onto defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz which should help the defense continue its dominance.  The Eagles are the class of the NFC East and it’s hard to bet against them in a tough NFC.

Dallas Cowboys

The NFC East is much like the AFC East in the fact that one team (in this case the Eagles) looks much better than the rest of the division.  The Dallas offense is led by Dak Prescott.  Prescott had a passer rating of 104.9 in his rookie year while last season it dipped to 86.6.  The truth is he probably falls somewhere in between those numbers.  The problem is that without Dez Bryant and Jason Witten Prescott is going to need to raise his game to lift those around him or the passing game is going to suffer.  Bryant had lost a step but he was still a guy you had to account for and Witten was the most reliable pass catcher on the team for about 15 years.  It’s not just that they lost those two it’s the fact they didn’t do much to replace them.  WR Allen Hurns is nice possession receiver but he isn’t lighting up the scoreboard and Terrance Williams is a stretch as a good #2 WR, he certainly isn’t a #1.  They are placing a lot of hope on rookie Michael Gallup to be a playmaker.  That’s more than I can say for what they have at TE, which is a bunch of decent blockers.  That leads to the good news for the offense, RB Ezekiel Elliott isn’t facing a six-game suspension this year and the offensive line looks to be really strong.  Elliott is a work horse and he’ll get even more work this year.  The offensive line is hoping for a healthy season from Tyron Smith and if he does miss any time they won’t have to trot out Chaz Green in his place.  They signed Cameron Fleming as a free agent swing tackle and drafted Connor Williams to play LG, either one would make a better fill-in than Green did.  The rest of the line returns intact with C Travis Frederick and RG Zack Martin two of the best at their respective positions and RT La’el Collins looking to improve on an uneven season.  Collins has to prove himself or Fleming or Williams may come after his job.

The Cowboys defense was surprisingly good last season.  DE Demarcus Lawrence finally broke through last year starting every game and getting 14.5 sacks.  His reward was the franchise tag which he will play under this season.  It’s probably smart of the Cowboys not to invest long-term in Lawrence until he proves he can do it for more than one season.  The rest of the defensive line is solid if unspectacular.  Tyrone Crawford and Maliek Collins aren’t household names but they get the job done.  The team is getting Randy Gregory back after he missed multiple season with drug suspensions, counting on him is a risky proposition.  One guy to keep on eye on if they use him right as a pass rushing specialist is rookie Dorance Armstrong, he’s a little undersized but he can be effective.  At LB the team lost do-everything fill-in Anthony Hitchens and now they need Jaylon Smith’s talent to shine through, they need Sean Lee to stay healthy and they need rookie Leighton Vander Esch to live up to his potential quickly.  I think Smith could be dominant but those other two hopes might be a bit much to ask.  Lee has never played 16 games in his nine-year career and asking that at 32 years old is just crazy.  Vander Esch is an outstanding athlete but he was a one-year starter at Boise St so it’s going to take him some time to adjust.  The secondary has a new coach in Passing Game Coordinator/Defensive Backs coach Kris Richard, formerly the defensive coordinator in Seattle.  He has his work cut out for him.  They are moving safety Byron Jones to CB because Richard likes big corners (ala Richard Sherman).  That covers one hole in the secondary but creates another one at safety.  They hope one of the other CBs Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis or Anthony Brown can hold up on the other side.  Jeff Heath and Xavier Woods are the uninspiring pair at safety for now.  The constant rumor of the team trading for Seahawks safety Earl Thomas teases the Cowboys fans mercilessly.

The Cowboys lack the playmakers in the passing game on offense and the playmakers against the passing game on defense to compete with Philadelphia for the division.  Jason Garrett has somehow survived some lackluster years in Dallas but the leash has to be getting pretty short at this point.  The Cowboys might compete for a wild card spot and luckily for them both the Giants and Redskins have at least as many question marks as they do this season.  I’m not sure how much more patience Jerry Jones will have for Garrett but Garrett seems to let Jerry have his way without much pushback so perhaps Jerry just likes it that way and will continue to employ Garrett for as long as he can.

New York Giants

The Giants have a pretty good group of skill position players.  WRs Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard are a good pair, Evan Engram is a playmaker at TE and RB Saquon Barkley is a major addition and he can change the look of the offense.  The free agent signing of LT Nate Solder was a long overdue move to fix a continuing problem and the addition of LG Will Hernandez in the draft should solidify the left side of the line.  The rest of the line is still pretty suspect but the team is hoping moving Erick Flowers to RT actually works but he might be broken beyond repair.  This offense will come down to Eli Manning.  He hasn’t been good for a while now but he’s not really a bad QB yet either.  The question is whether this is the inevitable fall of an aging QB or was Ben McAdoo just that horrible of a choice as a coach.  The offensive line may fail Manning again and we might not get a real answer.  However, Pat Shurmur did a masterful job last year in Minnesota with a less than stellar offensive line and he made Case Keenum a legitimate starting QB in the NFL.  If anyone can jump start Manning’s career Shurmur is probably the best bet.

The defense has talent at all three levels the only question is how will it be used.  The Giants have been a 4-3 defense for quite some time but new defensive coordinator James Bettcher comes from Arizona and he will transition them to a 3-4 defense.  Bettcher has always had good defenses for the Cardinals but any time there is a switch it can have some growing pains.  The team will take its big-ticket free agent signing from last year DE Olivier Vernon and move him to OLB.  That move doesn’t always go so well just ask the LA Rams how it worked moving Robert Quinn last season (here’s a hint, they traded him in the off season).  The new three-man defensive line should be solid with Damon Harrison playing NT, a position he’s well-suited for, and rookie BJ Hill and second-year man Dalvin Tomlinson flanking him.  The LB position got an upgrade with an off season trade for Alec Ogletree from the Rams.  If Vernon can make the transition to OLB that takes care of one position.  The other will be manned at the moment by Kareem Martin with veteran Connor Barwin waiting in the wings.  The Giants haven’t been good at LB for a while so it’s interesting they are going to 4 LBs on the field.  The strength of the defense should be in the secondary.  Janoris Jenkins is a very good CB and if Eli Apple can get it together he has the physical tools to be a top-flight corner too.  The real strength is S Landon Collins.  He sets the tone and he’s one of the better safeties in the league.

This team needed a restart on the coaching staff and new head coach Pat Shurmur is as good of a fresh start as Manning, Beckham and the rest of the offense could have hoped for.  I’m not certain new offensive coordinator Mike Shula is a perfect choice but this will be Shurmur’s offense not Shula’s.  Defensive coordinator James Bettcher is a proven tactician and if the players buy into his system it should work.  The new scheme might make certain players uncomfortable and they may not all fit in but Bettcher knows how to call a defense.  No team this off season got a bigger upgrade with their new head coach than the Giants.  Shurmur over McAdoo is a game changer.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins made arguably the biggest move of the off season by changing out their QB.  After three pretty impressive seasons by Kirk Cousins the team let him walk in free agency after pulling off a trade for Alex Smith.  Smith had a career year last year in Kansas City throwing for over 4000 yards but he’s 34 years old and the Chiefs traded him away to go with a guy with one career start.  Smith has never been a franchise QB and I doubt at 34 he’s going to miraculously morph into one.  The team took a major hit in the preseason when rookie RB Darrius Guice tore his ACL and will now miss the season.  Guice was a steal in the second round of the draft after he fell for some strange reason.  In what can only be called a panic move the Redskins signed Adrian Peterson hoping to catch lightning in a bottle one last time.  Considering the other options are Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson I can’t say I blame them but I’m not jumping on the bandwagon either.  Thompson might still be the most effective weapon in the backfield.  The team needs Josh Doctson to take the next step in his development and become a #1 caliber WR.  Jamison Crowder is a nice weapon as a slot receiver but he shouldn’t be the focal point of the passing game.  Free agent Paul Richardson brings speed from Seattle but not a lot of production.  The best weapon on offense is TE Jordan Reed but he has to be healthy and he’s never played an entire 16 game schedule in his career.  LT Trent Williams is a star when he’s playing but he was injured a bit last season and they have no one to step into his place.  RG Brandon Scherff and RT Morgan Moses make a solid right side.  The LG and C spots are the question marks with a bunch of unproven guys fighting for the jobs.

The Redskins defense was pretty awful against the run last season and they are hoping a healthy season from last year’s rookie Jonathan Allen and this year’s top pick Da’Ron Payne will remedy a lot of that.  Allen and Payne are former Alabama teammates and they bring serious talent to the front line.  The team brought back all four LBs and they are hoping the healthy return of Mason Foster inside will also help against the run.  ILB Zach Brown was the rock of the defense last year while OLBs Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith are the edge rushers.  The team signed veteran Pernell McPhee to add depth and they are hoping for more out of second year man Ryan Anderson.  The secondary is led by CB Josh Norman but he just turned 30 and his play slipped a bit last season.  Quinton Dunbar is the other starter but they are hoping Fabian Moreau or one of the other young CBs can push him for the job.  Montae Nicholson and DJ Swearinger are the starting safeties and while no one is going to mistake them for superstars they hold their own.

Jay Gruden has some how survived Dan Gilbert and is entering his fifth season as head coach of the Redskins, no one could have predicted that.  This season will test him with Alex Smith taking over at QB. Smith is steady but he isn’t dynamic and neither is this offense unless Josh Doctson morphs into Julio Jones.  This team can be solid if the offensive line gets straightened out inside and if the defense can stop anyone from running them over.  In a division that has the Super Bowl Champs with Jay Ajayi behind a great line, the Cowboys offensive line blocking for Ezekiel Elliott and the Giants trotting out Saquon Barkley, run defense is going to be a major issue.  I think they struggle a bit which is why I have them finishing fourth in the division.

 

 

 

Minnesota Vikings

You don’t generally find teams that won 13 games, won their division and made it to the conference championship game changing QBs but the Vikings made the biggest free agent splash of the off season by signing Kirk Cousins to replace Case Keenum.  Keenum had a great year but Cousins has been good for longer and has a more proven track record.  It says a lot about the QB market when Kirk Cousins sets the standard, clearly solid QBs rarely hit free agency until they are too old to matter.  Cousins should find the Vikings offensive weapons to his liking.  WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are a very good duo that complement each other well.  RB Dalvin Cook is returning from injury but he looked good last year before the injury.  They have a capable backup in Latavius Murray too.  TE Kyle Rudolph should see an uptick in his usage as Cousins was used to using Jordan Reed quite capably when he was in Washington.  The real concern on offense is the line.  The interior of the line is a work in progress at guard, and center Pat Elflein was great last year as a rookie but he is dealing with some ankle issues.  If either Rashod Hill or rookie OT Brian O’Neill can handle the RT spot they could move Mike Remmers to OG and that would help considerably.

While the offense is good this team is built on the strength of an outstanding defense.  The front four is led by DEs Everson Griffin and Danielle Hunter who put pressure on opposing QBs.  Free agent DT Sheldon Richardson should make for a tough pairing inside with Linval Joseph, they may not be flashy but they are tough.  LBs Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr are phenomenal three-down LBs and both are in the prime of their careers.  CB Xavier Rhodes proved to be one of the best in the game last season and his counterpart Trae Waynes finally found some consistency.  The ageless Terence Newman returns at nickel corner and he will have to fight off rookie first-rounder Mike Hughes and possibly Mackenzie Alexander.  FS Harrison Smith is legitimately one of the top safeties in the NFL and SS Andrew Sendejo is solid if unspectacular.

Mike Zimmer has built a heck of a defense but this year there are some changes coming to the offense.  Besides the major change at QB the team lost offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur as he took over as head coach of the Giants.  His replacement is former Eagles QB coach John DeFilippo.  He did a great job with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles last year but now it’s his offense to call so there could be some bumps in the road.  Relying on Dalvin Cook early may be the way to go.  The defense is just hitting its stride and it should give the Vikings a nice window to compete for a shot at the Super Bowl for a few more years.  I expect the Vikings to outpace the Packers by just a game or two given their superior defense.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers offense struggled last season when Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury.  I know, it’s shocking to think a team would miss arguably the best QB in the league.  Rodgers is a special talent but it wasn’t just his injury that hurt the offense.  They had injuries and inconsistency at RB and they had injuries along the offensive line so there was never much cohesion with that group.  Devante Adams was a bright spot as he produced even with the uneven QB play of Brett Hundley.  This year Rodgers will have to lean on Adams as his favorite WR Jordy Nelson was jettisoned for age and salary reasons.  The team did add the best TE Rodgers has ever played with in Jimmy Graham.  Graham may not be the guy he was in his heyday with the Saints but he’s still a weapon and Rodgers will enjoy having him.  Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones will battle it out for the RB job with Ty Montgomery hoping to make his case too.  The offensive line can be solid if they are healthy although their OG situation is still a little suspect.  LT David Bakhtiari and RT Bryan Bulaga are one of the better tandems in the league when they are both healthy.  The team goes as far as Rodgers can carry them and that could be quite a ways if everyone stays healthy.

After many years of Dom Capers running the defense he was let go and Mike Pettine was brought in.  He will continue the 3-4 look but perhaps he’ll have some new wrinkles.  This team’s defense has a lot of veterans like Mike Daniels, Nick Perry, Clay Matthews and newly signed free agent Muhammed Wilkerson up front while the secondary has some youngsters.  The team needs to strike while Matthews is still standing because he’s still the best pass rusher on the team.  As of now the team is counting on rookie Oren Burks to step in for the injured Jake Ryan at ILB and he’s looked pretty good in the preseason.  The team brought back Tramon Williams to mentor the young CBs.  Kevin King is second-year guys and he’ll team with rookies Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson to form what the team hopes is their nickel package for the foreseeable future.  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is entrenched at one safety spot while Josh Jones should be the other.

Mike McCarthy made a big move with Pettine replacing Capers and then tinkered with the rest of the defensive staff.  The offensive staff wasn’t so lucky.  Offensive coordinator Edgar Bennett and QB coach Alex Van Pelt were let go much to the chagrin of Aaron Rodgers.  However, Joe Philbin returned to take over as offensive coordinator, a position he had a few years ago before he left to coach the Dolphins.  The team named a run-game and a passing-game coordinator and Frank Cignetti Jr became the QB coach.  That’s a lot of new voices hoping to work together to get the offense on track.  I think this team has a run in them but they are just a little bit behind the Vikings at the moment but they are still ahead of the Bears and Lions.

Chicago Bears

The word of the day in Chicago is potential.  This team has loads of potential on offense especially.  They seem to have found the QB of the present and the future in Mitchell Trubisky.  He didn’t exactly light the world on fire with is 7 TDs and 7 INTs but a lot of his issues were because he wasn’t working with a great supporting cast.  The team decided to spend some money in free agency and picked up some help in the draft that they hope will help Trubisky take another step forward in his progress this season.  The Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, WR Taylor Gabriel, TE Trey Burton and drafted WR Anthony Miller and OG/C James Daniels in an effort to surround Trubisky with a better offense.  Adding this group to RBs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen and the Bears offense has tons of potential for this year.  Robinson is coming off a missed season with a knee injury but when he’s on he’s a legitimate #1 WR.  Gabriel gives them a nice speed threat.  Miller is a criminally underrated rookie WR, he’s going to be a playmaker.  Trey Burton gives them a legitimate pass catching threat at TE and a nice security blanket for Trubisky.  Daniels will solidify the interior of the line in front of Trubisky for many years to come.  Finally, Howard and Cohen are a deadly 1-2 punch at RB with various skills.

The Bears went 5-11 last year but it wasn’t because of the defense.  The team defense was top 10 versus both the run and the pass.  That’s why new head coach Matt Nagy kept defensive coordinator Vic Fangio around and the team looks to just make adjustments here and there.  Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Jonathan Bullard make for a solid line up front.  Hicks had a surprisingly good year last year.  The team needed some new blood at LB and they drafted Roquan Smith in the first round and he should line up inside next to Danny Trevathan.  Even his unexpected holdout won’t stop him when the season rolls around.  Smith will tackle everything in sight and if he doesn’t lead rookies in tackles I’ll be absolutely shocked.  The defense could really be something special if Leonard Floyd can stay healthy and actually become the pass rusher he has the talent to be.  The secondary is better than the sum of its parts.  Kyle Fuller finally played well and Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper held their own.  The safeties are solid but unspectacular.  Fangio gets more out of this unit than most probably could.

Matt Nagy is a young, offensive minded head coach who studied under Andy Reid for the last 10 years and he benefited from the Sean McVay effect.  McVay was the really young offensive coach who took over the Rams last year and took Jared Goff and the LA offense to a new level.  The Bears hope Nagy does the same for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.  Nagy proved to be quite smart as he convinced Vic Fangio to stick around and continue to run the defense (McVay hired wise sage Wade Phillips to run his defense).  Nagy also hired former Oregon coach Mark Helfrich to be his offensive coordinator and long-time offensive line coach Harry Heistand.  I like it when a new young head coach is smart enough to hire some veterans and isn’t afraid to have people around him that have their own ideas.  Nagy seems like the type of coach who will use his staff to best of their abilities, he probably learned that from Andy Reid.  I’m picking the Bears third in the division because they are just a bit young on offense yet to compete against Green Bay and Minnesota but I like their potential over Detroit.

Detroit Lions

The Lions’ passing attack was 6^th in the NFL while the running game ranked 32^nd, no real surprise this team was last in rushing yards per game.  This team has been a terrible running team since Barry Sanders retired (BTW that was 19 years ago, seriously it was 1999 look it up).  Matthew Stafford has been the offense since he arrived and while many people thought he’d tank when Calvin Johnson retired early a few years ago he’s just kept humming along.  It is time for them to get him some help.  The Lions signed RB LeGarrette Blount, drafted RB Kerryon Johnson and drafted OG/C Frank Ragnow to hopefully improve the running game.  Johnson is the best all-around running threat but he has some issues staying healthy so the team will use the two new RBs to keep both fresh.  Add in receiving threat Theo Riddick and things don’t look good for Ameer Abdullah.  The team relies entirely too much on WRs Golden Tate and Marvin Jones and could really use someone to step up behind them.  Kenny Golladay has potential.  They don’t have a real threat at TE with the talented but inconsistent Eric Ebron finally departing.  The offensive line should get a boost on the inside from Ragnow, he should bring a toughness and intensity they haven’t really had.

While the offense is trying to figure out how to be better balanced the defense is hoping new head coach Matt Patricia can work his Patriot magic.  The Patriots have always been good at making their defense better than the sum of its parts.  The Lions have some pieces like DE Ziggy Ansah (if his knee is healthy), DT A’Shawn Robinson (he’s a good interior presence), LB Jarrad Davis (had a solid rookie year) S Glover Quin (slightly underrated) and CB Darius Slay (one of the better corners in the league).  The rest of the defensive starters and the entire backup group leave plenty to be desired.  If Ansah isn’t healthy or is ineffective the team is in real trouble, no one else generates much of a pass rush.  Patricia has his work cut out for him and while this team could go 8-8 that might not get them better than last in the division and they certainly won’t challenge the Vikings or Packers at the top.

Patricia was wise enough to see the offense isn’t broken and he kept offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter.  There were some position coaches that changed but that should be for the better.  The defensive staff was overhauled and veteran coach Paul Pasqualoni is the new defensive coordinator.  Pasqualoni may have the coordinator title but make no mistake it’s Patricia’s defense.  He cut his teeth under Bill Belichick and that counts for something.  The Lions’ LB corps has been pretty bad for a while and I’m interested to see what Patricia can do to take Davis’ game to another level.  If he can get anything out of the rest of the group he’s a miracle worker.  He will love having Darius Slay at CB but can he turn Teez Tabor’s confidence into actual production opposite Slay? They need either Tabor or Nevin Lawson to actual step up to help Slay out.  This team won’t be an easy win for anyone but they have too many holes and are going to need some time to figure them out.

 

Defensive Line

Defensive End

Starters: Anthony Nelson – Jr, Parker Hesse – Sr

DE is the deepest and arguably the most talented position on the Hawkeyes this season (the safety group might argue with that assertion).  Anthony Nelson had a good year last year and looks to have an even better one this year.  He’s a long and lean end that can bend the edge and he could be a double-digit sack guy this season.  Nelson is a good NFL prospect and if he has a great year he could leave early for the draft.  Hesse is the lunch pail type of player.  He is hard-working, no frills guy.  He is the guy most likely to take over Josey Jewell’s role as the emotional leader of this defense.  Hesse won’t blow you away and he’s not going to put up eye-popping stats but he’s the rock of the defensive line.

Backups: AJ Epenesa – Soph, Sam Brincks – Senior

The backups at DE have taken two opposite paths to get here.  Epenesa was a 5-star recruit and earned playing time as a true freshman because he’s simply too talented to keep off the field.  If Anthony Nelson and Parker Hesse weren’t so consistently good Epenesa would be starting by now.  For now, he’s just an exceptional option as the third DE.  Brincks was a walk-on who worked hard, paid his dues, played both inside and outside on the line when the coaches asked and earned a scholarship the Iowa way.  He’s steady, not flashy and does the dirty work with no complaints. His ability to play both inside and out also makes him an important part of the rotation and that should continue this year.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Brandon Simon-Soph, Jack Kallenberger- Jr, John Waggoner-Fr

Brandon Simon is a third-year sophomore who has yet to break through and finds a pretty talented depth chart ahead of him.  Kallenberger is a walk-on who adds depth.  Waggoner was a top recruit and while he’s talented it would take a number of injuries for him to see serious playing time.  The 4-game redshirt rule might help him get some snaps in a major blowout game but he’s not seeing time in more than four games this year.  Chauncey Golston has earned a spot as the backup DT but he also brings versatility like Brincks so he will line up at DE from time to time.

Defensive Tackle

Starters: Matt Nelson – Sr, Cedrick Lattimore – Jr

Matt Nelson sat out spring practice with an injury so he’s working his way back but he’s still a starter and I wouldn’t expect that to change.  He will start as long as he’s healthy.  He’s a tall DT at 6’8 and he creates tough passing lanes in the middle of the field.  Lattimore played some last year and he should only get better with another year of physical maturity.  He has the talent and skill to really excel inside.  These guys get a little overshadowed by the stars at DE but they will do good work inside.

Backups: Chauncey Golston – Soph, Brady Reiff – Jr,

As I said before Golston brings versatility and while he’s still filling out his 6’5 frame he has earned the backup job inside and he should make for good depth.  Reiff is suspended for the first game of the year due to a public intoxication charge over the summer but once he’s back he should be a part of the DT rotation.  (BTW, google the story about him mistaking a police car for his Uber, at least he was trying not to drink and drive).

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Garret Jansen-Jr, Austin Schulte-Soph, Dallas Jacobus-Soph, Tyler Linderbaum-Fr, Noah Shannon-Fr, Daviyon Nixon-Soph

Garret Jansen is most likely the 5^th DT although Sam Brincks will slide inside from time to time.  Jansen is never going to be the biggest DT but he can play.  Dallas Jacobus was a walk-on who is listed as a backup in the two deeps during spring practice at one point (injuries certainly played a role in the depth chart during the spring). He was impressive enough to beat out Schulte in the spring, not sure if that’s good news for him or bad news for Schulte.  Schulte has had some injury issues so that contributed.  The bad news for the both of them is freshmen Linderbaum and Shannon are ready to compete if depth is needed beyond the top four DTs.  Shannon already has the size at 300 lbs. while Linderbaum could be quite disruptive as he grows into the position.  The Hawkeyes would love to have Nixon available but he’s a JUCO transfer from Iowa Western and he’ll redshirt this year in order to concentrate on academics.  If not, he would have definitely contributed.

Linebacker

Outside Linebacker

Starter: Nick Niemann – Soph

The Hawkeyes are replacing all three starting LBs from last year’s team and this seems to be the simplest replacement.  Nick Niemann is slated to replace his brother Ben at OLB for the Hawkeyes.  He’s only a sophomore but it looks like he’s the one guy that took a position and owned it and his competition isn’t all that close.  If he can come close to matching his brother’s production the position will be in good hands.  Ben was a reliable and underrated player now it’s Nick’s turn.

Backup: Barrington Wade – Soph

While the LB position lost a lot of experience there are a lot of players on the roster and many of them were vying for a spot somewhere in the two deeps.  Wade stood out enough during spring practice to earn the backup spot behind Niemann.  He’ll have to continue to work to hold off his competition but he’s a talented player so I expect him to do so.

Middle Linebacker

Starter: Amani Jones – Jr

Jones was originally slated to line up at weakside LB but given the fact that no one had any real experience at any of the LB positions a lot of guys got chances to show what they could do at multiple positions.  By the end of spring ball Jones had laid claim to the MLB job.  He’s a fierce hitter and it will be his job to communicate with the entire defense.  Jones is stepping in to fill some major Josey Jewell sized shoes but he’s earned the opportunity.  I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do and I have high expectations for Jones moving forward.

Backup: Jack Hockaday – Sr

Hockaday spent part of last season as Jewell’s backup until he got hurt.  He was passed up by Jones during spring and for now he brings nice depth and could be used in multiple positions.  His experience and cross training at multiple positions could make him the fourth LB regardless of position.

Weakside Linebacker

Starter: Kristian Welch – Jr

Welch started the spring at middle linebacker but after Aaron Mends went down with a torn ACL and Amani Jones asserted himself in the middle Welch moved to the weakside.  He is tall and rangy and his athleticism should play well at the position.  He’s been waiting his turn and it’s his time now.  It’s unfortunate that Mends tore his ACL when he was just about to get his chance as a senior but Welch will take advantage.  This is the one starting LB position that isn’t completely set just yet.  Mends went down late in the spring so Welch didn’t really have the opportunity to claim the position but I suspect he will do so in training camp.

Backup: Djimon Colbert – RS Fr

Colbert was originally recruited as a safety but he immediately moved to LB when he arrived on campus.  He is still growing into his LB body but the hope is that he maintains his speed and athleticism.  The Hawkeyes are looking to utilize speed at the LB spot more as Phil Parker uses sub-packages more when lining up against multi-WR looks.  Colbert can be this type of LB/S hybrid that plays well in these packages.  Unless Welch completely dominates in camp I would expect we see Colbert get some playing time this season.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Dillon Doyle-Fr, Jayden McDonald-Fr, Seth Benson-Fr, Logan Klemp-Fr

Dillon Doyle competed in spring practice and that should give him a leg up on the other true freshman.  He is likely the #3 MLB at best but he could be a threat to play some special teams.  Jayden McDonald is a fast, athletic LB that is definitely in the new mold the Hawkeyes are looking for so while I expect him to redshirt he might get some special teams and mop-up duty in less than four games in order to get him some experience and preserve his redshirt.  Benson and Klemp are likely to redshirt just to grow into themselves and because they are not likely to be needed.  The late summer losses of Kyle Taylor and Nate Wieland means the true freshmen will get a shot at special teams.

Cornerbacks

Starters: Matt Hankins – Soph, Michael Ojemudia – Jr

Replacing the three starting LBs seems to be getting more headlines than replacing Josh Jackson at CB but I think this is a pretty interesting position to look at for the Hawkeyes.  Matt Hankins stepped in as a freshman towards the end of last season when Manny Rugamba (recently departed from the program) and Michael Ojemudia were not stepping up opposite Jackson.  Hankins has a chance to be the next great Iowa CB, he has the talent but he’s unproven.  With Rugamba gone it’s Ojemudia’s job to lose.  There are a couple of redshirt freshmen and likely true freshmen coming for Ojemudia’s spot.  Neither of these guys can relax because while the depth is inexperienced it is talented and Phil Parker won’t hesitate to use freshmen if they prove to be better.

Backups:  Trey Creamer – RS Fr, Josh Turner – RS Fr

Creamer and Turner came in with Hankins in last year’s recruiting class but they redshirted because of Iowa’s depth at CB.  Now both of them are in the two deeps and if Ojemudia is inconsistent he very well could lose the starting job to one of them. Creamer seems to be slightly ahead of Turner and I can only say that because when Rugamba was still on the depth chart Creamer was listed as a backup but Turner wasn’t, once Rugamba left Turner moved up.  Both guys bring talent and athleticism to the position.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: DJ Johnson – Fr, Julius Brents – Fr, Terry Roberts – Fr

The rest of the depth chart is made up of true freshmen.  Considering three of the top four are 2^nd year players this position group is quite young.  The good news is they are all talented and coached by Phil Parker.  Johnson might be the most likely to see early playing time but all three of these guys may be called upon.  I’m listing Brents as a CB here even though he may eventually end up at safety, I’m doing that because there is an easier path to playing time at CB than there is at safety.  Brents is a talented athlete that might be too good to keep off the field.  Roberts is the less talked about player but that isn’t going to stop Phil Parker from playing him if he earns a chance.

Strong Safety

Starter: Amani Hooker – Jr

Hooker finally broke through last year after Brandon Snyder went down with a torn ACL and Miles Taylor was simply ineffective.  His breakthrough moment happened in the Ohio St. game but he played very well most of the time he was in.  He’s a playmaker and extremely versatile.  Phil Parker has talked about him lining up as a LB and he can also cover the slot.  He’s my choice as breakout player of the Iowa defense and the “best defensive back” baton has been passed from Desmond King to Josh Jackson the last two years and now it’s Hooker’s turn to take the title.

Backup: Geno Stone – Soph

Stone was a true freshman last year who played some special teams and by the end of the year he was playing on defense.  He has the type of athleticism, instincts and toughness that makes a good Iowa safety.  He would get caught out of position a little last year but that happens to true freshman from time to time.  He’s going to be a good one moving forward.

Free Safety

Starter/Backup: Brandon Snyder – Sr, Jake Gervase – Sr

At the moment these two seniors are listed as co-starters. Snyder is coming back from re-injuring his knee last year after he came back really quickly from his torn ACL the preceding spring.  Gervase stepped in and at first, he looked like a deer in headlights.  He struggled along with Miles Taylor and then Snyder returned for a minute and got hurt again.  Once Amani Hooker stepped in for Taylor and Gervase came back in for Snyder he played a lot better.  These are two pretty experienced players on the back end of the Iowa defense.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Dallas Craddieth – Fr, Kaevon Merriweather – Fr, Jaden Snyder – Fr, Riley Moss-Fr (potentially)

Hooker, Stone, Snyder and Gervase offer four talented safeties and plenty of versatility so the odds of someone else playing much is pretty low hence the reason I listed Julius Brents at CB.  Craddieth and Merriweather are two athletic guys that could bring something on special teams if the coaches deem it necessary and they may want to get them some playing time since Brandon Snyder and Gervase are both seniors.  Jaden Snyder is Brandon’s brother and as of right now he’s a walk-on but something tells me he’s going to eventually be one of those guys that earns a scholarship.  Riley Moss is a guy that was going to come in and not be on scholarship this year (it’s a weird eligibility thing called a blueshirt) and while I haven’t heard differently there are some scholarships available now.  Manny Rugamba, Nate Wieland, Spencer Williams (medical waiver), Kyle Taylor, Toks Akinribade (medical waiver), and Cam Harrell all left the program over the summer for various reasons that could mean the Hawkeyes bring in Moss now instead of later.

Overall Analysis

The Iowa defense is built upon the strength of the defensive line.  The talent and depth are exceptional.  Anthony Nelson, Parker Hesse, Matt Nelson, Cedrick Lattimore, AJ Epenesa, Sam Brincks, Chauncey Golston and Brady Reiff make up the deepest defensive line I think Kirk Ferentz has ever had in his 20 years.  That’s good because there isn’t a lot of experience behind them, talent yes, experience not so much.  The LBs don’t have a single start among them but I actually worry less about them than the secondary. While they haven’t started any games, they have been on campus for multiple years and have practiced and learned from Josey Jewell, Ben Niemann and Bo Bower.  The secondary has one junior, Michael Ojemudia, who hasn’t been the picture of consistency.  A sophomore with a couple of starts under his belt, Matt Hankins.  And a bunch of redshirt and true freshmen.  Phil Parker has always been good at getting young guys ready to contribute early, just look at Hankins last year.  However, it’s usually finding one youngster to play with some older guys, this year he’s going to need multiple youngsters to heavily contribute at CB.  I think he’ll use his depth and experience at safety to cover up the lack of experience at CB.  Hooker can play the slot and be all over the field and Snyder can play all over too.  I think Jones, Niemann and Welch are good LBs who only need a chance to play to really shine.  The competition at LB and CB should help push the starters to earn their spots every week.  No one at LB or CB has earned the benefit of the doubt and if someone is struggling they could lose their starting job.  Training camp should be quite competitive on the defensive side of the ball, even the defensive line starters have healthy competition pushing them to be better.  This has a chance to be one of the most athletic defenses Kirk Ferentz has had at Iowa and I hope Phil Parker follows through on using sub-packages a little more against pass happy offenses.

 

 

 

 

Quarterbacks

Starter:  Nate Stanley – Jr

As a true sophomore last season Stanley threw for 26 TDs and only 6 INTs, that’s a pretty good first year as a starter.  He had two 5 TD games including his masterpiece against Ohio St.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is he had 10 TDs in two games and only 16 in the other 11.  That was the inconsistency of the offense and that is something that must be corrected by offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz and Stanley this year.  Iowa’s offense is always built on the strong offensive line and the running game but having Stanley take another step forward in his development will make the offense dangerous.  The fact that even in an inconsistent year the one thing he did very consistently was hold on to the ball is really good news. Six INTs is a remarkable stat for a first year starter and not turning the ball over is paramount in the Iowa offense.  I expect Stanley to have an even better season as WRs Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith mature into bigger roles and Nick Easley, Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson provide consistent production in the passing game.  If he makes enough of a jump he could place himself among the top prospects for the NFL at QB given his size and arm strength.

Backups:  Peyton Mansell – RS Fr             Spencer Petras – Fr

The QB battle to watch is for the backup spot as Stanley is unquestionably the starter.  The Hawkeyes lost both Tyler Wiegers and Ryan Boyle to transfer leaving them with only three scholarship QBs.  Mansell is a redshirt freshman and for now his limited practice experience may be giving him an edge for the backup spot going into fall camp.  That edge may not last long as Petras was an early enrollee freshman and looked pretty good in spring practice.  Petras is more in the mold of Stanley as a big, strong-armed QB while Mansell is slightly smaller and more athletic.  This competition is likely to go deep into fall camp as Ferentz doesn’t really have to name a backup until they release the depth chart for the first game of the year and even then, he doesn’t really have to make a choice he could list both players behind Stanley.  The new redshirt rules instituted by the NCAA this year also allow a player to play in 4 games in a season and still use a redshirt, that bodes well for Petras as he could get some playing time and not lose a year of eligibility.

The other QB on the roster is walk-on Ryan Schmidt, a big 6’5 junior from Linn-Mar.  There isn’t a lot of depth on the roster, if there are injuries things could get dicey.

Running Back

Starter: Toren Young – Soph

At 5’11 221 lbs. Young will be a stark contrast to Akrum Wadley but he’s certainly in the mold of other successful Hawkeye backs like LeShun Daniels, Marcus Coker and dare I say Shonn Greene.  Young isn’t fancy and that works just fine in the Iowa offense.  Behind a big, powerful offensive line Young’s power will be utilized to its fullest extent.  He had a pretty good year last season considering Wadley and James Butler took most of the carries.  I really thought when Butler was injured for a bit last season that the coaches missed an opportunity to use Young even more as they mostly relied on Wadley.  I like Young’s no-nonsense style and I think he’s going to have a fantastic year.

Backup: Ivory Kelly-Martin – Soph

Young won’t have to carry the load alone.  Kelly-Martin proved to be a pretty solid back last season in very limited action. He is a more natural pass catcher than Young, although Young showed some talent in this area during the spring too.  Kelly-Martin isn’t the power back Young is but at 5’11 200 lbs. he’s no slouch either, he can hold his own between the tackles.  It’s always nice when the Hawkeyes have two backs that are able to play on any down and excel.  Kelly-Martin has more homerun ability than Young and hopefully he’ll take advantage of all the opportunities he gets.

Beyond the Two-Deeps:  Mekhi Sargent-Soph, Kyshaun Bryan-RS Fr, Henry Geil-Fr, Samson Evans-Fr

The Hawkeyes went through spring practice with only Bryan and Cam Harrell backing up Young and Kelly-Martin and that was after moving Harrell over from defensive back (he has since left the program) Bryan isn’t bad and he brings good size to the position but he hasn’t really stood out so far.  To say they needed some help is an understatement.  Enter JUCO RB Mekhi Sargent.  Sargent was a late add this summer as a transfer from Iowa Western with three years of eligibility remaining.  He was very good last season and he adds a different dimension as a 5’8 190 lbs. back who is more in the mold of Akrum Wadley.  His year of starting at Iowa Western also gives him some experience that Bryan doesn’t have.  If I were to venture a guess I would also say true freshman Henry Geil has a chance to move ahead of Bryan too.  He’s already built for Big Ten football at 6’1 215 lbs. and I think his talent will shine through.  With the new 4 game redshirt rule I think it’s possible Geil gets used at some point.  Samson Evans wasn’t a RB in high school and there’s a chance his move to RB isn’t permanent.  He’s a good athlete that could be used at another position if he finds a better fit where he can contribute sooner.

Fullback

Starter: Brady Ross – Jr

Backup: Austin Kelly – Sr

The Hawkeyes are likely to employ their two TE sets more and use a FB less but it is not an unimportant position for the Hawkeyes.  Ross and Kelly are similarly built players that will be used to clear a path for Young and Kelly-Martin in short yardage and both can do it well.  Ross is a bowling ball and every once in a while, he’ll fake a block, slip past his man and make a catch out of the backfield.  Luckily, Iowa fans know how to appreciate a good screen pass to a FB and Ross will make some yardage after the catch by knocking down some defenders.  The FB is a dying breed in college football but Iowa still has their mold and they just keep cranking them out.  Iowa coaches and fans still appreciate the value of a good FB.

Wide Receiver

Starters: Nick Easley – Sr, Brandon Smith – Soph

WR is a position looking for some consistency this year.  Last season Nick Easley proved to be one of Nate Stanley’s favorite targets.  Easley isn’t a game breaker but he does get open, he proved to be reliable in being where he needed to be and he knew how to move the chains.  He is likely to continue as a security blanket for Stanley and he’s likely to lead the Hawkeyes in catches this season.  Brandon Smith was just a true freshman last year and while he didn’t burst onto the scene like fellow freshman Ihmir Smith-Marsette he steadily got more and more playing time as the season went on last year.  This spring Smith seemed to take a step in his development and now he looks to become a more prominent piece of the offense as an outside receiving threat.  He has the size and speed to be a playmaker for Stanley and will hopefully take some of the pressure off of TE Noah Fant as a big play threat.  Smith is my pick for breakout offensive player for the Hawkeyes.

Backups:  Ihmir Smith-Marsette – Soph, Kyle Groeneweg – Sr

Smith-Marsette (aka ISM) burst onto the scene last year as a big play WR for the Hawkeyes and while he provided some spark for the offense it was fairly sporadic.  He has the ability to take any play the distance whenever he touches the ball but there were too many times last season where he disappeared during long stretches.  Some of that was the offense’s inconsistency and some of it was his.  If you pay attention to Kirk Ferentz’s comments about ISM needing to put down his cell phone and couple that with the fact that he isn’t listed as a starter it’s fairly clear that the coaching staff wants to see more out of him.  It’s not an issue of talent for ISM it’s about focusing on his craft.  Now a guy that seems to have put in the work is senior Kyle Groeneweg.  He transferred from the University of Sioux Falls and sat out last season.  He has worked his way up the depth chart and now he’s a backup.  He isn’t going to wow you with his physical size but apparently, he’s one of the fastest guys on the team.  If he can consistently get open he could become a big part of the offense as Stanley looks for guys to make plays.  He excelled at special teams previously so he should add value there.  It would be great to see an Iowa kid (he’s from Inwood, IA) transfer in from a small school and make an impact as a senior.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Max Cooper-Soph, Dominique Dafney-Jr, Devonte Young-Jr, Henry Marchese-RS Fr, Nico Ragaini-Fr, Calvin Lockett-Fr, Tyrone Tracy Jr.-Fr

Outside of Nick Easley you can’t call anyone playing WR at Iowa “proven”.  Smith and Smith-Marsette showed flashes last year but they both still have a lot to prove.  Groeneweg has plenty of playing time just at a much lower level.  However, compared to the rest of the depth chart those four are seasoned veterans.  Who emerges from this group is anyone’s guess.  Max Cooper, Devonte Young and Dominique Dafney all played last year but their only contributions were on special teams.  No one from this group has a career catch.  Cooper was another true freshman that saw the field last season even though he didn’t contribute on offense he might have the inside track on being the fifth WR for now.  If Ragaini, Lockett or Tracy can pick up the offense I see no reason why they can’t find some playing time.  Tracy looks like the type of playmaker Iowa could really use if they come up with some ways to get the ball in his hands.  ISM proved last season that the Hawkeyes aren’t afraid to play a true freshman early if he proves worthy, Tracy could be an electrifying playmaker.  This is a make-or-break year for Devonte Young, he is a junior who has yet to make an impact and he’s been passed by true freshmen and transfers that haven’t been on the roster as long as he has.  He is the last of the Bobby Kennedy recruited WRs and those guys didn’t have a very good track record at Iowa.  Dafney is also a junior but he’s a walk-on who is a contributor on special teams and anything he brings at WR is just icing on the cake. Henry Marchese redshirted last season and he brings good size to the position and could make a move up the depth chart.

Tight End

Starters: Noah Fant – Jr, TJ Hockenson – Soph

Fant is no longer a secret weapon as he has been named to multiple pre-season All-American teams.  His 11 TDs last season caught everyone’s attention and he’s going to get every defensive coordinator’s attention all season long.  When Stanley needs a play, he looks to Fant and he usually makes the play.  Fant is big, strong and fast and he’s a top NFL prospect, enjoy him this season because he’ll be playing on Sundays in 2019.  The good news is Fant isn’t Iowa’s only playmaking TE.  TJ Hockenson had a pretty good year last year and could really break out this season with teams focusing on stopping Fant.  He is probably still physically maturing into the position but he looks ready to round out his game and really complement Fant and give Stanley a deadly two TE set.  Truth be told, Hockenson is a pretty good TE prospect himself and if he wasn’t so overshadowed by Fant more people might notice, his turn will come he may just have to wait another year.   In the meantime, he can be the silent assassin.

Backup: Shaun Beyer – Soph, Nate Wieting – Jr

Only the Iowa Hawkeyes can list two FBs and four TEs in their two deeps and get away with it (yes, they list 12 starting spots instead of 11).  Beyer didn’t play much last year as a redshirt freshman but he’s starting to look the part.  He started his Hawkeye career at WR even though everyone knew he would grow into a TE.  He’s taking a little bit longer than Hockenson to grow into the TE position but it looks like it’s going to pay off.  Wieting has been a walk-on getting playing time for the past couple of years.  He’s not flashy and he isn’t lighting up the stat sheet but he’s steady and reliable and he does his job.  That’s pretty much the definition of the perfect backup TE.  With a number of scholarships opening up late in the summer I would guess Wieting would be at the top of the list of walk-on  to earn one.

Beyond the Two-Deeps:  Drew Cook-Jr, Nate Vejvoda-Jr, Tommy Kujawa-RS Fr, Bryce Schulte-RS Fr, Ben Subbert-Fr

The top four guys are going to dominate the playing time which is good because the depth beyond the top four is suspect.  Drew Cook moved to TE last year from QB and so far, he hasn’t distinguished himself.  It’s still early in his TE development but he’s going into his junior year so he doesn’t have a lot of time.  Vejvoda has been a TE his entire career and hasn’t moved up the depth chart at all so that doesn’t bode well for his future playing time.  The Hawkeyes had Jacob Coons as a freshman last year but he gave up football in the spring.  Kujawa, Schulte and Subbert are all walk-ons.  Subbert is a true freshman that definitely has some potential down the line.

Offensive Line

Tackle

Starters:  LT- Alaric Jackson – Soph, RT-Tristan Wirfs – Soph

Last year the Hawkeyes were supposed to have two senior starting OTs in Boone Myers and Ike Boettger but injuries left them with two freshmen starters, one redshirt (Jackson) and one true (Wirfs).  Those two more than held their own and it could pay huge dividends this season.  Jackson started all year except for the bowl game (disciple issue) at LT while Wirfs took over RT about half way through the year and then played LT in the bowl game.  There has been some question which one would start where this season but Jackson’s more comfortable on the left side so the coaches seem likely to stick with him there and Wirfs on the right side.  Wirfs might be the better athlete and could certainly handle LT but Jackson was no slouch there last year.  These two offer a very talented set of bookend OTs for the offense and should only get better with experience.

Backups: Mark Kallenberger – RS Fr, Dalton Ferguson – Sr

The Hawkeyes are not exactly stacked at OT after Jackson and Wirfs.  Mark Kallenberger looks like the 3^rd OT but he’s still a bit light as he only weighs in at about 285 lbs. He has the athleticism to play OT and he’s a talented guy he just needs to grow a little more.  Ferguson is listed as the other backup at the position coming out of spring ball but he’s battled injuries the last few seasons and it’s tough to count on him being healthy.  Levi Paulsen is likely the next man in if there is an injury, he started at RT in the Pinstripe Bowl last year when Jackson was suspended and Wirfs moved over to LT.  Paulsen is fighting for a starting job at RG this season but he can hold his own at RT if need be.

Guard

Starters: Ross Reynolds – Sr, Cole Banwart – Soph

Reynolds is a senior who has just kept plugging away and looks to finally be stepping into a starting role.  He’s not flashy but he’s tough and steady and should hold down the LG spot just fine.  Cole Banwart starts fall camp ahead of Levi Paulsen but that battle may not be over.  Paulsen started at RT last year in the bowl game but he’s probably better suited on the inside.  Banwart has impressed the coaches since bowl prep last season and while he’ll still have to fight for this starting position he’s also probably the main backup at center even though he’s not listed there.  It is possible Reynolds and/or Banwart get beat out but for now they are the starting guards.

Backups: Coy Kirkpatrick – RS Fr, Levi Paulsen – Jr

While Reynolds and Banwart are the favorites to be the starters for now they are only penciled in, that is equally true for the backups.  It probably bodes well for Kirkpatrick that he’s listed as a backup at OG and he’s only a redshirt freshman, it probably isn’t saying much for the other guys.  Levi Paulsen may not be a starter right now but I would guess he plays at some point this season.  Both he and his brother have fought injury issues at times and sometimes that has let other move ahead of them.

Center

Starter: Keegan Render – Sr

The loss of James Daniels early to the NFL draft created a pretty significant hole in the middle of the offensive line.  Keegan Render played the position for the first game last season while Daniels sat out so at least he has that going for him.  Render has plenty of experience at guard and he’s played both right and left during his career so he should have a solid understanding of playing center in the Iowa offense and making the line calls.  He isn’t going to be Daniels in the pivot but he’ll hold his own just fine.

Backup: Levi Duwa – RS Fr

Duwa came to Iowa as a defensive lineman but during last season he moved over and starting working at center.  Unfortunately, he dealt with an injury at the end of the season that may have set his development back a bit.  The coaches see something in him that made them move him from defense to offense so that’s a good sign. The reality is that if something happens to Keegan Render it is more likely Cole Banwart slides over from his potential starting OG position to take over and one of the Paulsen’s steps in at OG.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Jake Newborg-Jr, Landan Paulsen – Jr, Cody Ince-Fr, Jeff Jenkins-Fr, Jack Plumb-Fr

Newborg just moved back to the offensive line after starting his career there and then moving to the defensive line for a while.  Between his position shifting and some injuries he’s never really gotten on track.  Landan Paulsen has been thwarted by a number of injuries too and hasn’t had much of a chance to prove himself.  This could be a make-or-break year for him.  Spencer Williams was a late summer departure from the roster due to concussions (he is ending his football career) so that hurts the interior competition a little bit.  Ince, Jenkins and Plumb are all true freshmen that should redshirt in order to mature physically and they should all contribute in the future.  The inside of the line is unsettled and its possible backup OT Mark Kallenberger gets a shot at OG if he proves too good to leave on the sidelines.

Overall Analysis

In Kirk Ferentz’s 20 years as Iowa head coach you can pretty much count on him basing the offense around a tough offensive line and the running game (okay, there was that one year where all the RBs got hurt and Drew Tate was the offense but that was the exception).  Even with an impressive returning starting QB and a new RB Ferentz isn’t likely to change his philosophy.  That said, having Nate Stanley under center and Brian Ferentz calling the plays perhaps the Hawkeyes are a little more creative in the passing attack.  Two TE sets are going to be quite common and while most people won’t find that all that exciting, when your two TEs are Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson there could be some fireworks.  Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith should take a step forward in their progress and that will help considerably.  I think Brandon Smith is the breakout player of the offense this season but I also think Toren Young will open some eyes at RB.  I like Ivory Kelly-Martin just fine but I think Iowa’s offense is better with the bigger power back hammering away at defenses early and pulling up the safeties to allow the receivers to get behind them.  Iowa is never going to be the Air Raid offense as long as a Ferentz is calling the shots but they did use some gadget plays last year with ISM and here’s hoping they find a way to get Tyrone Tracy, Jr. involved in the offense.  The interior of the offensive line is a work in progress but with Jackson and Wirfs manning the edges I think the line will be just fine.  Brian Ferentz’s first year as offensive coordinator had its ups and downs but I think there is reason for optimism.  Oh and if Brandon Smith is the breakout player of the offense it will only be because Stanley has an excellent season, something else I expect to happen.