Atlanta Falcons

The team took a step back last season after making the Super Bowl the year before but the window is still wide open for them to make it back to the top of the conference.  QB Matt Ryan signed a long-term extension so he’s settled into the QB spot.  He may never be in the Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers sphere when it comes to all-time QBs but Ryan is damn good and he’s proven he can get them to the Super Bowl.  The team still has Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman at RB and they even added Ito Smith in the draft for some depth.  Julio Jones got a revised contract for the year to keep him happy for now.  WR Mohamed Sanu returns as his complement and they team drafted Calvin Ridley who should make for an excellent third WR.  TEs Austin Hooper and Logan Paulsen aren’t great but they do fine.  The offensive line has four stable positions with LT Jake Matthews, LG Andy Levitre, C Alex Mack and RT Ryan Schraeder, leaving only the RG spot as a little unsettled.  Wes Schweitzer started there last season but he’s dealing with an injury and the team signed veteran Brandon Fusco in the off season and he looks like he may have won the job outright.

The defense is young, fast, talented and returns almost everyone.  One the defensive line DT Terrell McClain is the only new starter from another team as he comes over from Washington.  He will line up next to the spectacular Grady Jarrett.  At DE Vic Beasley returns to wreak havoc and second-year man Takkarist McKinley will be the new starter opposite him.  McKinley was a pass rush specialist last season but this year he becomes the full-time starter.  The LB trio of De’Vondre Campbell, Deion Jones and Duke Riley return as starters.  They are young, they are fast and they make plays all over the field.  At CB Desmond Trufant is one of the more underappreciated players in the league.  He doesn’t put up big stats because teams generally avoid him.  That’s becoming harder to do as Robert Alford has proven to be pretty good and the team has a good nickel corner in Brian Poole.  In the draft they added a very good prospect in Isaiah Oliver which makes them four deep at CB.  SS Keanu Neal is a tackling machine and sometimes plays like an extra LB.  FS Ricardo Allen is solid and smart and while he just got an extension he better watch his back because Damontae Kazee is coming for his job.

Dan Quinn came to the Falcons a few years ago from Seattle and quickly transformed the team into a modern football franchise on the field.  He brought a defensive blueprint from the Seahawks of a fast, aggressive unit and he quickly built it.  He initially handed the keys to the offense to Kyle Shanahan and that worked well as he and Matt Ryan got the offense moving.  Last year the team had two new coordinators as Marquand Manuel took over the defense and Steve Sarkisian took over the offense.  While statistically both units were fine it was clear there were some bumps in the transition.  A second year together should help smooth out those bumps and this team has plenty of talent to compete in the NFC for conference supremacy.  The division won’t be easy as the Saints and Panthers both present formidable foes, I think Tampa is going to struggle a bit.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints offense still belongs to Drew Brees after all these years but now he’s surrounded by some of the best talent he’s ever had, and he’s had some good ones.  Offensive Rookie of the Year RB Alvin Kamara was a revelation last season and even though he shared the position with Mark Ingram it was Kamara who was the big playmaker.  Ingram is solid as a rock but he begins this season suspended for the first four weeks so the team will rely heavily on Kamara.  WR Michael Thomas is one of the best in the league and he’s Brees’ go-to receiver and big play threat in the passing game.  The team is hoping Cameron Meredith can become Thomas’ complement after they signed him as a restricted free agent in the off season.  He started the preseason slowly but looks like he’s finally recovered after missing last season with a torn ACL.  For now, veteran WR Ted Ginn is still holding down the other starting spot but Meredith could take it over fairly soon.  At TE the team is bringing back Benjamin Watson and hoping he has one more good year at 37 years old.  The line is solid with the underrated Terron Armstead at LT, Andrus Peat and Larry Warford at the OG spots, steady veteran Max Unger at C and last year’s first-round pick Ryan Ramczyk at RT.  If the line stays healthy they are good, if there are injuries the team might struggle as they don’t have a lot of depth.

The Saints defense has made a lot of progress over the last several years and last year they got a boost from some rookies in the secondary and some new blood at LB.  On the defensive line DE Cameron Jordan became an All-Pro and really led the way.  Alex Okafor was having a good season before he was injured and while he looks ready to start again rookie Marcus Davenport will get plenty of time too.  DT Sheldon Rankins and Tyeler Davison are steady on the inside.  After signing Manti Te’o and AJ Klein as free agents last season the team completed their LB corps overhaul with Demario Davis coming over from the Jets this season.  The trio isn’t winning any awards but they are steady and solid which is an upgrade over the group from a few years ago.  In the secondary, it was CB Marshon Lattimore who took home Defensive Rookie of the Year honors and he gives the Saints the first legitimate #1 CB they have had in forever.  Ken Crawley started last season being inactive on gamedays but ended the season as the starter and was pretty reliable opposite Lattimore.  Nickel back Patrick Robinson was signed to give the team a good third CB.  Rookie FS Marcus Williams had a great year minus that one major missed tackle in the playoffs against the Vikings.  It is unfortunate his rookie year is being remembered for that one horrible mistake.  The team signed veteran Kurt Coleman to play SS after letting Kenny Vaccaro go.  Vonn Bell still figures prominently in the defense as they routinely use three safeties, it is possible Bell overtakes Coleman as the starter sometime this year.

Sean Payton has been the Saints head coach since 2006 and he and Brees have made a very successful partnership which includes a Super Bowl title.  There have been ups and downs and some change over on the coaching staff but Payton seems to have a good one in place right now.  Pete Carmichael has been Payton’s long-time offensive coordinator and they work well together.  They even managed to transition the high-flying offense of Drew Brees to a one that relies pretty heavily on the Ingram/Kamara pairing running the ball.  Dennis Allen is the defensive coordinator and now that he has top talent to work with that unit is doing a much better job.  We will see if he can get the same type of production out of DE Marcus Davenport in his rookie year as he did out of Lattimore and Williams last season.  The Saints have a short window with Brees to try to win it all again but they made a move this preseason that may extend their window.  They traded for Teddy Bridgewater to backup Brees and he could be re-signed in the off season to be Brees’ eventual replacement.

Carolina Panthers

Clearly the Panthers offense revolves around QB Cam Newton and the team is hoping they have added enough talent around him to help him out.  The team finally let RB Jonathan Stewart go and they plan to give the bulk of the work to Christian McCaffrey.  That’s a major upgrade in talent but I wonder if McCaffrey can handle the workload as a RB and still be the effective weapon in the pass game.  The team signed CJ Anderson to back him up and they would be wise to let him carry some of the rushing load.  At WR the team traded WR Kelvin Benjamin last season because he and Devin Funchess were similar players and they wanted to get someone with deep speed to add to the offense.  Funchess becomes the top WR while the team added veteran Torrey Smith who definitely brings deep speed.  Smith can take the top off a defense but he’s never been the most consistent WR around.  The team hedged their bet on Smith by drafting DJ Moore, another speed demon WR who can stretch the field.  At TE Newton has one of the most consistent producers in the league in Greg Olsen.  Olsen only played in seven games last season but until that he had been one of the best TEs in the league and if he’s healthy he should return to being Newton’s go-to guy.  The offensive line has been a bit of a mess in the preseason.  First, RT Daryl Williams was hurt and had to sit out so Taylor Moton replaced him.  Now Williams seems to have made a miraculous recovery just as LT Matt Kalil goes down and is place on IR to start the year.  Moton looked very good at RT and now he switches to LT.  Jeremiah Sirles was supposed to replace LG Andrew Norwell who left in free agency but he will miss the season with an injury.  That means long-time backup Aminu Silatolu is likely to start.  C Ryan Kalil and RG Trae Turner seem to be the only sure things on the line.  The interesting thing will be if Moton excels at LT and Matt Kalil comes back after week 8, will he get his job back?  Kalil isn’t exactly the most impressive LT in the league, he is replaceable if Moton plays well.

The defense was effective last season but it is certainly aging.  The only starters you can still call young are LB Shaq Thompson, CB James Bradbury and CB Donte Jackson.  On the defensive line Julius Peppers returns at DE at 38 years old.  DE Mario Addison will be 30 this year too.  Dontari Poe replaces Star Lotulelei at one DT spot while Kawann Short returns at the other.  They have to hope Peppers can get healthy as he just came of the PUP list after the preseason.  He and Addison have to bring the pass rush because they don’t get it anywhere else.  MLB Luke Kuechly is in the prime of his career and he’s an absolute monster.  Thomas Davis will start the year suspended for the first four games and he has said this is his last year as he is set to retire.  Shaq Thompson should get more playing time on third down with Davis out and to get him ready for the future, he’s a pretty good talent.  Rookie Donte Jackson came in and took a starting job during the preseason and looks very good.  James Bradbury had some struggles last season but there is talent there to work with.  Safety Mike Adams is almost as old as Peppers but not nearly as productive, the team simply doesn’t have anyone to replace him.  Da’Norris Searcy is a very limited strong safety and the team really needs their young guys like Colin Jones and Rashaan Gaulden to step up.

Ron Rivera has been a pretty good coach for the Panthers franchise but he is once again replacing his defensive coordinator because Steve Wilks took the Cardinals head coaching job just one year after Sean McDermott left for the Bills job.  Eric Washington moves up after being the long-time defensive line coach so he is familiar with this team.  Long-time offensive coordinator Norv Turner was brought in to revitalize the offense and while he burned out as the Vikings coordinator he is a well-known commodity in the NFL.  It should be good for Christian McCaffrey as Norv Turner has always had RB friendly offenses.  I don’t think the Panthers are good enough or deep enough to compete with Atlanta and New Orleans and if age catches up to their defense things could get ugly.  Peppers, Addison, Davis and Adams are all vital pieces to the defensive puzzle and father time is undefeated.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a team in flux with Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games of the year for personal conduct policy issues (another sexual assault allegation, he has problems keeping his hands to himself).  That mean Ryan Fitzpatrick steps in and while Winston wasn’t great last season Fitzpatrick is a bit of a step down.  He’ll do okay but he will need a lot of help from his offense.  WR Mike Evans is the one major weapon this team has and he will be relied on greatly.  DeSean Jackson is still good but he’s 31 and doesn’t scare teams like he used to.  The team was hoping rookie RB Ronald Jones would step in for the departed Doug Martin but he lost the starting job to Peyton Barber, that’s not really a good thing.  Barber is a decent player but teams will be able to stop him.  TE Cameron Brate is solid but this team needs OJ Howard to take a major step in his development and become a real threat.  The offensive line could be a problem.  LT Donovan Smith has been a reliable starter since he entered the league but he’s never been a dominant player.  He’s banged up and his 48 consecutive game starting streak could come to an end and they have no real reliable backup.  The team is also hoping OG Ali Marpet is healthy enough to start week 1 otherwise they might be down their two best linemen.  C Ryan Jensen, G Evan Smith and RT Demar Dotson are just guys, they aren’t all that good.

The team’s defense was abysmal against the pass last season, literally finishing last in the league.  They decided the less than impressive pass rush was to blame and they were right.  The team traded for Jason Pierre-Paul from the Giants and signed Vinny Curry from the Eagles to take over at DE.  They can hope pushing Noah Spence into a reserve role allows him to become a better pass rush specialist.  The team signed DT Beau Allen to start next to the only holdover on the line, star DT Gerald McCoy.  McCoy should be happy he’s finally getting some help.  He’s a beast and with the drafting of Vita Vea to go with Allen and the other additions the defensive line should be much deeper than in the past.  At LB Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David should benefit from the increased size up front with the additions of Allen and Vea and with Curry and JPP putting pressure on the QB.  The team returns CBs Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes along side safeties Justin Evans and Chris Conte.  This unit wasn’t very good last year but they are hoping the increased pass rush helps them out.  Hargreaves is still young enough to turn around the slow start to his career while Evans has a chance to be a pretty good safety.  Grimes is trying to hold on at an advanced NFL age while Conte is what he is which is not very good.  The team did draft MJ Stewart (he’s injured for now) and Carlton Davis at CB so they are hoping the young guys make an impact.

I think this team has issues and I think those issues derail the season.  Along with Indianapolis, who lacks overall talent, I think the Bucs will be one of the worst teams in the league.  Winston has made his future as the face of the franchise quite cloudy.  I think Dirk Koetter is in over his head as the head coach and if things go south quickly I think he could be the first coach fired.  Defensive coordinator Mike Smith isn’t a sexy name but he has head coaching experience so the team has a ready-made interim fill-in, although probably not the long-term one.  If the aging duo of JPP and Vinny Curry don’t juice up the pass rush the defense could be in trouble and if Winston returns but takes another step back like he did last year the offense is in trouble.  That’s not a good combination.  The silver lining is that the defensive line draft class looks really good and the Bucs should have their pick of whichever one they want, unless they need to replace Winston with a new QB.

 

 

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags defense and running game carried the team to the AFC Championship game last season.  One of the best rushing attacks in the game makes life a lot easier for QB Blake Bortles.  Bortles is the weak link on the offense but he does just enough to not get replaced.  The team seemingly committed to him this off season but in reality, his contract is an easy one to get out of.  If he doesn’t better his TD-Int ratio from the 21-13 it was last season they have to consider a new direction.  The team is too good otherwise to waste with a bad QB.  RB Leonard Fournette was major stabilizing factor in the run game last year and he allows TJ Yeldon to be a more effective change-of-pace back.  At WR the team did fine with Marqise Lee leading a young group of Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook when the now departed Allen Robinson was injured for the year.  Now Lee is hurt and the team needs newly signed veteran Donte Moncrief to produce and rookie DJ Chark to not play like a rookie.  TE Mercedes Lewis was around for a decade but he was never much of a weapon and now he left as a free agent.  The team signed Austin Seferian-Jenkins and while he can be a weapon he can also be a headcase, he won’t be the steady influence Lewis was.  The offensive line was better than the sum of its parts.  LT Cam Robinson, C Brandon Linder, RG AJ Cann and RT Jeremy Parnell all return.  The team’s major off season addition was LG Andrew Norwell who should only make the ground game that much better.

The defense finished second in the league last season and if they do better against the run they can be the top unit this year.  Their pass defense was #1 and that was due to their fantastic defensive line and excellent secondary.  DEs Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell are excellent and the team hopes former first round pick Dante Fowler can become a better pass rush specialist.  DTs Malik Jackson and Marcell Dareus are both disruptive players and the team hopes a full season from Dareus (he came over in a trade last year) improves them against the run.  Perhaps rookie DT Taven Bryan can help in that regard too.  At LB the team loses heart and soul Paul Posluszny and while he may have lost a step over the last couple of years his leadership will be missed.  Myles Jack has to step up as the leader now and he teams with Telvin Smith to give the Jags two top talents at LB.  The other spot is the question mark.  Rookie Leon Jacobs is listed as the starter but it’s more likely this team runs out either five defensive linemen (with either Bryan or Fowler on the field) or a fifth defensive back more often than not.  The secondary is a major strength with Jalen Ramsey fulfilling his potential and being an All-Pro CB last season and AJ Bouye proving his great free agent year the year before with the Texans was no fluke.  SS Barry Church and FS Tayshaun Gipson filled their roles very well last year and return to do the same this season.

In a bit of a stunner former interim head coach Doug Marrone was named the permanent head coach before last season and then led the team to the AFC Championship game.  Marrone isn’t an exciting guy but he did well to steady the team last season.  Nathaniel Hackett is the offensive coordinator and he has a long history with Marrone.  His job now is to get Bortles to not screw this team up, relying on a good run game seems to be the right approach.  Defensive coordinator Todd Wash is one of the more unsung coordinators in the game, you don’t hear his name mentioned for head coaching jobs but he leads arguably the best defense in the league.  He predates Marrone’s tenure but Marrone was smart enough to keep him around.  The Jags still look like the top team in this division and as long as Bortles doesn’t go completely Blake Bortles on the team they should win the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans

The team believes they have franchise QB in Marcus Mariota and they finally made a coaching move that might allow him to fulfill his potential.  Even after making the playoffs last year the team decided not to bring back Mike Mularkey and they hired Mike Vrabel as head coach.  Vrabel is a defensive guy but he hired Matt LaFleur who was the Rams offensive coordinator to run his offense.  Out goes Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth” and in comes a modern offense for Mariota.  It’s time for him to put up or shut up.  The team should still have a smashmouth feel in the running game with an excellent offensive line blocking for new feature back Derrick Henry.  Henry finally usurped DeMarco Murray last season and this year the team brought in Dion Lewis from New England to complement Henry this time.  They should make an effective duo.  At WR LaFleur has to get Mariota and the supremely talented Corey Davis on the same page because Davis brings serious playmaking ability.  Rishard Matthews is still an effective veteran but Taywan Taylor has played great in the preseason and may have passed him.  At TE Delanie Walker is one of Mariota’s most trusted targets but his aging and youngster Jonnu Smith should start to get more playing time.  The offensive line has been very good with LT Taylor Lewan and RT Jack Conklin locking down the edges (assuming Conklin gets back from his ACL injury).  C Ben Jones and OGs Quinton Spain and Josh Kline are effective on the inside.

On defense Mike Vrabel brought in former Patriots/Raven defensive coordinator Dean Pees to continue to run the 3-4 defense the team has been using for the past several years.  Vrabel and Pees are well versed in the 3-4 and the personnel is a good fit.  Jurrell Casey is still the best defensive lineman on the team and DaQuan Jones and newly signed Bennie Logan add a lot of size up front.  At OLB the team has veterans Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo and while both are effective neither one is dynamic anymore.  That’s why the team drafted Boston College’s Harold Landry, they hope he brings more off the edge.  The big loss on defense was ILB Avery Williamson but the team drafted Rashaan Evans in the first round to replace him and line up next to veteran Wesley Woodyard, they should be a good pair.  At CB the team signed former Patriot Malcolm Butler just a year after signing another former Patriot Logan Ryan.  These two should start which would leave Adoree’ Jackson manning the nickel spot.  The Titans signed veteran safety Kenny Vaccaro during training camp and he should replace Kendrick Lewis at SS.  FS Kevin Byard had a breakout season last year and makes for an excellent last line of defense.

This team made the playoffs last year and they still replaced their coaching staff, that takes guts.  Vrabel is known as a leader but his Xs and Os prowess is underdeveloped at this point.  That’s why he hired Matt LaFleur and Dean Pees.  LaFleur is a rising star on the offensive side of the ball and he took this job because he gets to really run the offense himself.  Pees has a history with Vrabel and is a well-known commodity.  If Pees and Vrabel can manufacture a better pass rush the defense can be really good and as long as the offensive line is healthy LaFleur has plenty of talent to work with.  I think the Titans just edge out the Texans to finish second behind the Jags, the Texans have far more questions on the offensive line that could undermine their progress.

Houston Texans

The Deshaun Watson hype train is in full effect after his sparkling debut last season.  Unfortunately, that season was short-lived after an injury ended his season early.  The promise he showed was enormous but his health is also the question.  Because of his ability to escape the pocket and the poor offensive line he’ll be playing behind I fear for his safety this season.  He is a legitimate weapon both throwing and running the ball but if he takes too many hits it will add up.  He has a fantastic weapon in WR DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller returned from injury last year to prove he can be a deep threat.  The early retirement of CJ Fiedorowicz due to concussions leaves them without a weapon at the position.  RB Lamar Miller is an underappreciated back who did solid work without much blocking in front of him last season.  The offensive line is a mess.  LT Julie’n Davenport is young, inexperienced and unfortunately the best option they have the position.  Seantrel Henderson is set to start at RT and that’s a disaster waiting to happen.  Senio Kelemete came over from New Orleans where he has never been a full-time starter in his six-year career.  Zach Fulton comes over from Kansas City where he was a starter but he’s solid not great.  C Nick Martin missed the last two games last season after ankle surgery, that’s after missing his rookie year with a knee injury.  Martin is easily the most talented offensive lineman on the team, if he can just stay healthy.  The team has to hope rookie Martinas Rankin can find a spot somewhere because he’s talented but his versatility may mean he doesn’t settle in to just one spot.

The defense was solid last season even though JJ Watt missed the year with an injury.  They would have been better if the offense had been more effective without Watson.  Watt’s return is huge up front and he teams with NT DJ Reader and DE Chris Covington to make a tough front line.  Watt makes plays while the other two free up the linebackers to make plays.  OLBs Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus bring pressure off the edge.  When Clowney, Mercilus and Watt are all healthy and playing at a high level they are a nightmare for opposing offenses.  It would be good for them if that was the case more often.  At ILB Bernardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham are everywhere cleaning up what those three guys leave behind.  Kevin Johnson and Jonathan Joseph return at CB and the team added Aaron Colvin from Jacksonville as the nickel, that’s a good group.  There are some changes at safety as former CB Kareem Jackson takes over at SS and Tyrann Mathieu was signed to handle the FS spot.  The team also drafted SS Justin Reid and that’s a smart move considering Jackson is 30 and new to the SS position.

Bill O’Brien is entering his fifth season as Texans head coach and he’s hoping he finally has a QB.  O’Brien serves as his own offensive coordinator so if things go south with Watson he will have no one to blame but himself.  He is turning the defense back over to Romeo Crennel who served as defensive coordinator before he gave way to Mike Vrabel last season and served as Assistant Head Coach.  Crennel is back to calling the defense which seems like good news for the unit.  I worry the offensive line will be this team’s undoing.  A poor offensive line has hurt the development of a QB for this franchise before just ask David Carr.  Also, Watson’s running skills may betray him as he tries to do too much when the line breaks down and he could end up being the next RGIII.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts entire season seems to be about Andrew Luck’s return and while it’s pretty amazing to finally see him get back out there this isn’t the same team he was playing with before.  A new coaching staff, lots of new offensive players and a defense that looks pretty rough.  Getting Luck back out there healthy is a good way to start over but this team has a long way to go.  Frank Gore left for Miami (no he’s still not retired he’s playing for the Dolphins), that leaves Marlon Mack as the feature back.  Mack has some skills but I’m not sure he’s ready to carry the load but they don’t have much beyond him.  WR TY Hilton is probably the happiest to see Luck back out there.  While Hilton played well without him he’ll play even better with him.  Ryan Grant was signed as free agent to play opposite Hilton and he’s all they have there until someone else steps forward.  TE Jack Doyle had his best year last season so he’s become a weapon while Luck has been out.  The offensive line needs LT Anthony Costanzo to get healthy, he’s not a Pro Bowler but he’s steady and he’s the best they have.  LG Quenton Nelson is a rookie first round draft pick who should solidify that spot for the next decade, he’s a monster and he should make Costanzo’s life easier.  The team needs C Ryan Kelly to get healthy and stay that way, if he does they are solid at three positions.  The right side of the line is a different story.  Veteran Matt Slauson may start at RG or it could be one of the guys who loses the RT battle.  Joe Haeg, J’Marcus Webb, Austin Howard, Denzelle Good and rookie Braden Smith are all still vying for the job.  That is not a good thing.

The offense isn’t deep but there is some talent, I wish I could say the same for the defense.  The front four consists of DE Jabaal Sheard, DE Kemoko Turay, DT Al Woods and DT Denico Autry, that’s not a great start.  The LBs are slightly better with Najee Goode, Anthony Walker and Darius Leonard set to start, at least they are still young and can develop.  CBs Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore are just holding down the spots until someone better comes along.  FS Malik Hooker is talented but he’s coming off a major knee injury that ruined his rookie year.  SS Clayton Geathers might be solid too but he’s returning from a neck injury.  As things go this defense needs a total overhaul.  If there are starters other than a couple of these LBs and the two safeties on this team in three years I would be shocked.

The only thing that slightly overshadowed Andrew Luck’s shoulder rehab this off season it was the coaching change.  Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels accepted the job right up until the moment he didn’t accept it.  The team changed course and hired Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich instead.  Reich gets a chance to restart Andrew Luck’s career but this team has so many other holes.  The team is changing schemes on defense and going away from Chuck Pagano’s 3-4.  Matt Eberflus comes in and he’s going to take his lumps with this unit.  New GM Chris Ballard has his work cut out for him reshaping this roster but I expect he will have another high draft pick this year as I don’t see this team having more than a few wins, even with Luck at full strength.

 

 

New England Patriots

Tom Brady didn’t look like he was 40 years old last season and I have no reason to believe he’ll look like he’s 41 this year.  The Patriots offense should keep humming right along as long as Brady is the trigger man.  The skill positions are a bit in flux but that has rarely had much effect on the effectiveness of the offense.  The team lost RB Dion Lewis in free agency but they return Rex Burkhead and James White, they drafted Sony Michel (who had a great chance to become the starter before he got hurt) and they are taking a flyer on resurrecting Jeremy Hill’s career.  Don’t sleep on Hill either, he’s a big back and Belichick’s offense has had luck with Corey Dillon, Antwoine Smith and LeGarrette Blount.  The WRs are in flux with Julian Edelman suspended four games, Danny Amendola moving on to Miami and the short-lived tenure of Jordan Matthews.  The team will rely on Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, and rookie Braxton Berrios (the Wes Welker clone).  Luckily for Brady his favorite target, TE Rob Gronkowski, is back to lead the way.  The offensive line has to replace stalwart LT Nate Solder who left for the big bucks and bright lights of New York (the Giants, not the Jets).  The team traded for Trent Brown from the Raiders on draft weekend and while he’s raw he could be molded by famed offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia into a pretty solid LT.  The Patriots hedged their bets by drafting Georgia offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn and then he tore his Achilles.  Things are not going well for Georgia Bulldogs drafted by the Patriots.  The rest of the offensive line is solid but unspectacular.  However, as long as Brady is good to go so is this offense.

The Patriots defense will be in a bit of flux with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia off to Detroit but Belichick will figure it out.  They did their usual bargain shopping on the free agent market and made some trades for guys that may have underachieved.  The picked up DE Adrian Clayborn to give them a stronger pass rush, if he could line up against the Cowboys backup LT all season long he’d have about 96 sacks this year but that seems unlikely.  He will give them more consistency up front though.  They traded for two Cleveland Browns (doesn’t seem like a recipe for success but I’m not going to question Belichick).  DT Danny Shelton is a massive human being that just didn’t put it together in Cleveland but he’s 24 years old and you can’t teach a guy to be 6’2 335 lbs. They also picked up CB Jason McCourty so now they have both McCourty brothers (Devin is the long-time star FS of the Patriots).  Jason isn’t flashy and he’s not young anymore either but he’s solid and he’s a far better choice to start opposite Stephon Gilmore than Eric Rowe.  DT Malcolm Brown had a good year last year and LB Kyle Van Noy played pretty well too.  Getting LB Don’t’a Hightower back would be a big boost to the leadership and talent on defense.  CB Stephon Gilmore and FS Devin McCourty are the backbone of the secondary and they make it tough on every offense they face.

Somehow Bill Belichick convinced Josh McDaniels to turn down the Indianapolis Colts head coaching job after he had already accepted it and if we believe everyone involved they didn’t promise McDaniels he would eventually replace Belichick.  I don’t believe that for a second but true or not it’s good news for the Patriots now because Brady keeps his offensive coordinator around.  The team did lose long-time defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to Detroit and technically Belichick hasn’t actually named a coordinator to replace him.  Belichick can act as his own coordinator and he has gone without a defensive coordinator before, however, it seems like LB coach Brian Flores is the most likely one to help call the defense on gamedays.  The Patriots basically win the AFC East every year and as long as Brady and Belichick are still around I’m not picking someone else to win the division.  I’m certainly not going to do it when the other three teams QBs are Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold and one of AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen (Buffalo).  The Jets just traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints to backup Drew Brees and he might have been the second best QB in the division.

Miami Dolphins

I’m going to go with the team with the most stable QB situation for the year.  Ryan Tannehill is returning from a knee injury but he really has no competition for the starting job.  Two years ago, he had a pretty solid year in Adam Gase’s first season as head coach.  The Dolphins are hoping the two can get back to building the offense from that point.  The team traded Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia last season and then Kenyan Drake actually stepped up and played fairly well down the stretch.  They signed the ageless wonder Frank Gore to back him up just in case he faulters a bit this year. Keep an eye on late round draft pick RB Kalen Ballage, he was inconsistent in college but he has size and talent.  The Dolphins traded their most productive WR Jarvis Landry in the off season to avoid paying him a lot of money.  They are hoping DeVante Parker will break out and live up to his lofty 1^st round draft slot but they hedged their bets in free agency.  They signed Danny Amendola to replace Landry as the slot receiver and they also signed Albert Wilson give them another option.  Kenny Stills remains the deep threat and they still have Jakeem Grant, a young and undersized playmaker they hope contributes.  Two other youngsters hoping to push the issue at WR are Leonte Carroo and undrafted free agent Isaiah Ford.  At TE the team drafted Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe to overhaul the position.  It may take the rookies a minute to overtake veterans AJ Derby and Marquis Gray but that should be about all the time it takes.  The offensive line is led by LT Laremy Tunsil and RT Ja’Waun James.  The interior of the line is in transition as the team signed Josh Sitton and OG and traded for Daniel Kilgore at OC.  The other OG position could be Jesse Davis but that is yet to be determined.

The team is hoping two trades they made improve their defensive line overall.  They picked up Robert Quinn from the Rams hoping he’ll juice up the pass rush.  Last season he was playing out of position as an OLB but he returns to DE hoping to rediscover his game from a few years ago. Playing opposite Cameron Wake should open things up for him too.  The team also traded for Akeem Spence from the Lions to replace Ndamukong Suh who was released for salary cap purposes.  Spence and Jordan Phillips should make for a stout pair up the middle.  Wake and Quinn should be a nice pass rushing duo but they have some help too.  William Hayes was brought in from LA and Andre Branch and Charles Harris also return at DE.  The LB corps was terrible last season.  The return of Raekwon McMillan at MLB should go a long way towards stabilizing things.  Kiko Alonso should be solid at strongside LB.  Where the team may have really improved is with speedy rookie Jerome Baker taking over on the weakside, he won the job in training camp.  Xavien Howard has proven to be a good CB and they were hoping Cordrea Tankersley can step up on the other side but that doesn’t look like it’s happening.  Bobby McCain is holding down that spot for new.  It’s the safety positions where they hope to make some progress.  FS Reshad Jones was very good last season and they hope 1^st round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick can become the playmaker opposite him.

The offense took a step back last season with Jay Cutler at QB after Tannehill’s injury sidelined him all season.  Gase has to figure out how to get the team going back in the right direction.  He started by bringing in a new offensive coordinator in Dowell Loggains.  They really need to see if Tannehill is the answer at QB or if it’s time to cut bait and find a new franchise QB.  Gase is a bright offensive mind but if the QB can’t do the job it won’t matter.  The defense should be better with Quinn, Spence, McMillan, Baker and Fitzpatrick improving each level.  The defense was middling last season while the offense was bad.  If the defense can get closer to the top 10 and the offense can just be middle of the pack this team should finish a distant second the Patriots in the division but they might compete for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a three-way battle at QB between former career backup to Andy Dalton, AJ McCarron, five INTs in a single half Nathan Peterman, and not ready for primetime rookie Josh Allen.  Allen is clearly the long-term plan but his accuracy issues need work before he goes against NFL defenses or it could ruin his confidence before he ever gets going.  Peterman stepped in last season to replace Tyrod Taylor and had a disastrous debut with his five INTs in one half before being benched, that doesn’t inspire confidence.  McCarron was hoping to cash in this off season and get a starting job somewhere but all of the spots filled up and he took a short-term deal in Buffalo, then they draft Allen so his tenure is guaranteed to be short.  Whomever lines up at QB will rely heavily on RB LeSean McCoy assuming he doesn’t get suspended for a domestic dispute charge that hasn’t gone anywhere so far.  The team traded for WR Kelvin Benjamin last year from the Panthers, he spent some time this preseason lamenting having to play with Cam Newton previously because he thinks Newton is an inaccurate QB.  Wait until he sees Allen throw some more.  Benjamin will pair with Zay Jones or the newly acquired Corey Coleman (don’t count too much on a Browns castoff WR).  Even with question marks at QB and WR the biggest concern on offense is the offensive line.  The team traded LT Cordy Glenn in the off season and are counting on Dion Dawkins to fill the void, that’s asking a lot of a guy that should probably be a guard.  The rest of the line is even more suspect.  They would be better off waiting on playing Allen until they get him some real protection up front, let the other two QBs take the beating this season.

The defense was almost as bad as the offense last season.  The line gets an upgrade with the signing of DT Star Lotulelei but they better hope third-year man Shaq Lawson gets healthy and contributes at DE because Trent Murphy isn’t the answer opposite Jerry Hughes.  The LB corps lost its most productive player in MLB Preston Brown.  Brown wasn’t flashy but he was solid as a rock for this team.  Rookie Tremaine Edmunds steps in for Brown and he will flash quite often but he’s a rookie so his consistency may not match Brown just yet.  He has a chance to be a transcendent talent but he’s still young so give him some time.  Matt Milano is another young guy but without the upside of Edmunds.  Both of them will rely on old warhorse Lorenzo Alexander, the 35-year old has been around the block a few times.  The secondary is probably the strongest unit on the defense with CB Tre’Davious White coming off a very good rookie year, the signing of veteran CB Vontae Davis to play opposite White and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer a solid pair at safety.  Hyde and Poyer both had 5 INTs a piece last season and Hyde was actually selected to the Pro Bowl.

The defense could improve in its second year under head coach Sean McDermott but the offense is likely to take a step back without the steady hand of Tyrod Taylor.  The offense will be overly reliant on LeSean McCoy and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will be looking to find ways to make the passing game more effective.  The Bills and Jets seem destine to fight it out for the bottom of the division and I’m only giving the Bills a slight advantage because as much as I don’t like their offensive line the Jets’ line is even worse.  I also think the Bills defense has a little more potential to bail them out a few times this year, especially that opportunistic secondary.

New York Jets

The Jets have the steady presence of Josh McCown in the QB room but Sam Darnold is going to win the starting job out of training camp.  He’s looked legit and the team just traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints to clear the deck for Darnold.  Darnold is the shining hope for this team and McCown is the perfect backup for him.  The team signed Isaiah Crowell to be their lead back and while he’s not going to set the world on fire he’s a solid starter.  Bilal Powell makes a nice complement to Crowell.  WR is a bit of a crapshoot as Robby Anderson proved to be a find last year but he has off the field issues that could end up keeping him off the field.  Jermaine Kearse is steady but unspectacular.  Terrell Pryor comes in coming off a disappointing season in Washington and they shouldn’t expect much from him.  The team is trying to figure out what it has at TE, it may not be much.  The offensive line is where the offense may really fall apart.  Kelvin Beachum is slated to start at LT but he’s nursing an injury and he’s not exactly stellar to begin with.  C Spencer Long was signed from the Redskins but he’s coming off an injury too.  LG James Carpenter, RG Brian Winters and RT Brandon Shell are essentially middling veterans at this point.  The team has to hope this group becomes more than the sum of its individual parts but that seems unlikely.

The defense has some talent to work with at each level but is missing some key ingredients to become good.  DE Leonard Williams is a fantastic player but the once formidable defensive line of the Jets has lost its luster.  NT Steve McClendon is fine but he’s 32 so he could slow down at any moment.  They are hoping rookie DE Nathan Sheppard from Fort Hays State can make the leap up and be an effective player, that’s asking a lot.  Their ILB duo of Darron Lee and free agent Avery Williamson should be pretty good but this is a 3-4 defense that doesn’t have effective pass rushers at OLB.  That’s not how you want to build a 3-4 defense.  Listed starters Jordan Jenkins and Josh Martin had 4.5 sacks last year…total…together.  If they can’t find a pass rush that’s going to make for a long year for their secondary.  CB Trumaine Johnson was brought in to pair with Morris Claiborne and while they make a solid pair they aren’t frightening anyone.  The safety duo of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye had a decent rookie year together last year but this team needs them to make major progress as playmakers because the CB group isn’t going to be doing that.

Todd Bowles is a good coach and I applaud the Jets organization for not throwing in the towel on him after a couple of tough seasons when things weren’t going their way.  He made some staff changes and he brought in Jeremy Bates to be his new offensive coordinator.  I’m not sure how much patience the ownership/front office group still has but now that the team has a rookie QB to build around they will want to see progress on the offensive side of the ball.  This team will struggle with a poor offensive line blocking upfront and on defense a nearly non-existent pass rush is a killer.  Luckily for them, other than New England, the rest of the division is hardly terrifying.  They could be better than the Bills and/or the Dolphins or they could go 3-13.  This team has a ways to go to rebuild but Sam Darnold is now the foundation they need to build around.

 

 

 

Los Angeles Rams

Jared Goff went from rookie question mark to unquestioned starter in a season thanks to Sean McVay and his competent offensive scheme, yes that’s a shot at Jeff Fisher and whatever he was trying to do his last year with the Rams.  The offense found an identity with running back Todd Gurley and a much-improved offensive line.  Gurley signed an extension this off season so he is set as the major star of the offense for the foreseeable future.  Gurley makes Goff’s life a lot easier and he’s proven to be a versatile weapon across the board.  The team lost WR Sammy Watkins in free agency but they traded for Brandin Cooks from the Patriots, then they signed him to an extension.  Cooks is a more consistent threat than Watkins and Goff should appreciate that.  Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp proved to be two reliable options that keep the offense moving.  The team doesn’t have much of a threat at TE but Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett aren’t terrible.  The offensive line improved when the team brought in veterans Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan at LT and C respectively.  Whitworth is 36 so the team needs to start planning for the future there and LG Roger Saffold is 30 so the left side is aging.  They re-signed RT Rob Havenstein to an extension so that position is solidified for now.

With Gurley, Cooks and Havenstein all signing contract extensions it begs the question why is All-World DT Aaron Donald still waiting for a new contract?  Donald is the Defensive Player of the Year and he’s holding out because he still doesn’t have a new contract.  Gurley is the face of the offense and the team should want Donald to be the face of the defense considering how good and young he is.  I have to believe they will get it worked out by Donald may miss a few games if they don’t figure it out soon.  That would be unfortunate because the Rams could have the best defensive line in football with Donald joining Michael Brockers and newly signed Ndamukong Suh.  That’s an impressive group up front and it’s necessary because the LBs aren’t so great.  The team traded ILB Alec Ogletree to the Giants and OLB Robert Quinn to the Dolphins leaving Mark Barron as the only proven commodity at the position.  OLBs Corey Littleton and Samson Ebukam and ILB Matt Longacre are the other starters for now, yeah, I don’t know who those guys are either.  The team decided to punt on their CBs from last season and they pulled off two trades for Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters.  That’s an amazing upgrade overall and while Talib and Peters have big personalities they also have major talent.  Peters might be the best cover corner in the league.  At safety the team brought back Lamarcus Joyner and John Johnson returns after starting most of the season as a rookie last year.  The secondary should be a major strength but it was the run defense that wasn’t great last year so they need the LBs to step up.  Having Suh upfront should also help in that regard.

Sean McVay showed up last season as the league’s youngest head coach and proved why he was the right man for the job.  He turned the offense around in an instant and found the best ways to use the talent on the team like Gurley and even Sammy Watkins.  McVay was also smart enough to hire Wade Phillips to run his defense and they trust Phillips scheme enough that they traded Robert Quinn away because he wasn’t a great fit.  They lost offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur and are replacing him with a passing game coordinator and a run game coordinator but that shouldn’t matter because this is McVay’s show.  I have no reason to think the team won’t be as good or even better than last season so I’m picking them to win the NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are the trendy pick to make the playoffs but I’m not sure I’m going that far.  They will certainly be much improved and they may compete for a spot but I’m not putting them in just yet.  The optimism is understandable considering the way Jimmy Garoppolo played last season after coming over in a trade.  Jimmy G hasn’t lost as a starter in the NFL and it’s a nice boost the 49ers organization to have clarity at the QB position.  His $137 million contract has drawn a lot of attention but the team decided to commit to him and build around his talent and that’s a good start to turning around the franchise.  The team has also made a commitment in both money and draft picks to the offensive line to protect Garoppolo.  LT Joe Staley is 34 this season but he’s as solid as a rock and while he has restructured his contract he’s still well paid.  The team signed C Weston Richburg to lock down the middle and give Jimmy G someone to count on in front of him.  They drafted Mike McGlinchey in the first round and he’ll start at RT.  They also have former first round picks Laken Tomlinson, Joshua Garnett and Jonathan Cooper battling for the starting OG spots.  At RB the team signed Jerick McKinnon and while he brings a skill set they didn’t have he’s not really an every down back.  Perhaps recently signed veteran Alfred Morris or returning from injury Joe Williams will add to the running game.  Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon return at WR and Garoppolo made Goodwin look good last year.  They didn’t add much at WR but rookie Dante Pettis could contribute.  At TE the team hopes George Kittle doesn’t miss much time with his shoulder injury as he was becoming a solid weapon on the inside.

The defense is where the team will likely struggle.  They were bottom ten in the league last year and there isn’t much help on the way.  Up front the team has former first round picks DE Solomon Thomas, DE Arik Armstead and DT DeForest Bruckner along with veteran DT Earl Mitchell.  There is plenty of potential but Thomas and Armstead are banged up and the team needs them to generate a pass rush or it will be a long year for the secondary.  At LB Reuben Foster is the best on the team but he will start the year on a suspension and the team has to hope he can keep himself out of trouble because they can’t afford to lose him for longer.  Malcolm Smith is a solid veteran but he’s pretty much all they got after Foster.  The team hopes rookie Fred Warner can contribute early the rest of the group is non-descript.  At CB they have Ahkello Witherspoon who was pretty solid once he took over the starting job last year.  They signed Richard Sherman after the Seahawks cut him and while he should be motivated to prove he still has something left he is coming off of an Achilles injury and he’s 30, that’s not a great combination.  Jimmy Ward moved from safety to CB and he’s competing to be the nickel back.   Jaquiski Tartt is set to start at SS with Adrian Colbert lining up at FS.  They are young safeties without a lot of experience and if the pass rush is non-existent this team is going to struggle defensively.

After the debacle that was the Jim Tomsula and then Chip Kelly years as head coach the team finally made the smart decision to hire Kyle Shanahan last year.  His partnership with new GM John Lynch is off to a solid start the team actually seems to have a direction now.  Shanahan got a lot out of Jimmy G last year even with a mediocre supporting cast at the skill positions.  They didn’t upgrade much there but they offensive line should be better and Jimmy G should have even better command of the offense with a full off season under his belt.  The defense still leaves a lot to be desired and unless the three former first round picks on the defensive line really blossom it isn’t going to change just yet.  The team will be better and they are on the right track but a playoff spot in the NFC is going to be difficult to come by.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are undergoing some major changes from last years team as Bruce Arians retired from coaching and QB Carson Palmer retired from playing.  In steps Steve Wilks and new coaching staff and the team signed Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon and drafted Josh Rosen to completely reset the QB position.  Bradford is set to start but he’s proven to be injury prone, I know that’s an understatement, and Rosen is the future, the future could be very soon.  Either of them would benefit with the healthy return of David Johnson who was injured last season at RB.  Johnson is a playmaker and has a vast array of skills.  At WR future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald returns again and at age 34 he’s coming off a season with 109 catches, yes, those numbers are both correct.  The team lost both John and Jaron Brown but rookie Christian Kirk looks like the real deal.  The team is hoping Ricky Seals-Jones can give them something at TE.  This offense will come down to how the offensive line performs.  LT DJ Humphries only played in five games last season and the team needs him healthy and playing like the 1^st round pick he was.  They signed RG Justin Pugh and are counting on RT Andre Smith to stabilize the right side, that’s a dicey proposition.  At C rookie Mason Cole is looking to step in for veteran AQ Shipley who will miss the season with an injury.  LG Mike Iupati is the only sure thing but even he had an uneven year last year.  If the offensive line comes together the offense will be fine if not it could be a disaster.

The Cardinals defense is entering a transition from the 3-4 to a 4-3 under new head coach Steve Wilks and new defensive coordinator Al Holcomb.  This isn’t going to be an easy transition as the team is dealing with some injuries on the defensive line.  DTs Robert Nkemdiche and Corey Peters are both banged up and DE Markus Golden is still on the PUP list recovering from an ACL tear.  That leaves DE Chandler Jones as the only healthy presumed starter and while he’s good he can’t do it alone.  The LB corps should be a strength with MLB Josh Bynes flanked by Deone Buchanan and Hassan Reddick.  The secondary still boasts CB Patrick Peterson and he’s one of the best in the league but his running partner is still questionable.  The team traded for Jamar Taylor and signed Bene Benwikere, two guys who have flashed talent at times but are hardly consistent performers.  The team decided not to bring back Tyrann Mathieu so Budda Baker will be the SS and Antoine Bethea will play FS.  The team recently signed Tre Boston and he makes for good depth.

Steve Wilks spent last year as the defensive coordinator in Carolina after serving the previous five as defensive backs coach.  With only one year as a coordinator Wilks steps up to the top job and he’ll have his work cut out for him transitioning this defense to a four-man front.  In the long run it’s a better fit for both Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche and they are the most talented players up front.  He brought long-time Panthers LB coach Al Holcomb along as his defensive coordinator and Holcomb did a great job in Carolina with the talent there, he should love Buchanan and Reddick.  Veteran offensive coordinator Mike McCoy comes in after being the scapegoat for a terrible offense in Denver last year (like it was his fault the line was terrible and his QB was Trevor Simien).  McCoy coached Phillip Rivers to some great seasons in San Diego and he should do well bringing Rosen along.  This team either needs Bradford to stay healthy (that’s a longshot) or Rosen to step up (more probable) and the defense has to make a quick transition.  The division is in transition as the Rams look to solidify the top spot, the 49ers try to continue their growth and the Seahawks try to figure out what they are doing.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson had a fantastic year last year and that managed to get the team a 9-7 record, unless he has a superhuman season this year 9-7 is just wishful thinking.  He carried the offense when the running game was non-existent and the offensive line was in shambles.  Even if those two things are better this year the defense is going to fall off.  The team drafted RB Rashad Penny in the first round to try to kick start their running game but it’s last year’s rookie Chris Carson who has looked the best in the preseason and if he stays healthy it should be his job.  At WR Doug Baldwin has become one the most dependable receivers in the game and Wilson relies on him heavily.  They need either Tyler Lockett or the newly signed Jaron Brown to provide a spark opposite Baldwin.  The team let TE Jimmy Graham go in the off season and while he wasn’t his old Saints self they will miss his playmaking.  The offensive line still looks like a mess.  LT Duane Brown was brought in last season in a trade and he should finally stabilize that spot and Justin Britt is solid at C.  However, the other three spots are still a question mark.  RT Germain Ifedi has been bad but none of George Fant, Isaiah Battle and Jamarco Jones have been healthy enough to take the job away from him.  They would be better off with one of those three at RT and moving Ifedi to the bench or the unemployment line.  They hope a healthy Ethan Pocic can lock down the LG spot and that DJ Fluker can be the RG.

While the offense certainly has question marks the defense looks pretty rough.  Up front the team has DT Jarran Reed and DE Frank Clark and then…well that’s where it gets rough.  At defensive end they are either counting on uber-bust Dion Jordan to recover from a leg injury (he’s missed training camp) or then need rookie Rasheem Green to find his way or Eric Walden needs to find the fountain of youth and the fountain of talent.  For now, former practice squad player Branden Jackson is lining up opposite Clark.  DT Tom Johnson was a veteran signed for depth but now he’s penciled in as the starter next to Reed.  They don’t even have options at DT to replace him.  At LB Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright return and they will be the backbone of the defense.  The other linebacker is another former first round bust Barkevious Mingo.  If you thought the defensive line was in trouble you should see the secondary.  CB Shaquill Griffin had a good rookie year this year but for now his counterpart is Byron Maxwell.  Maxwell shouldn’t be a starter for anyone at this point.  They have to be hoping Justin Coleman or another young corner steps up.  At safety the team is locked in a stalemate with Earl Thomas who wants a new contract or to be traded, he’s not with the team for now.  Tedric Thompson is taking Thomas’ place at the moment and he’s a serious downgrade.  SS Kam Chancellor retired due to injury thus leaving Bradley McDougald to take his spot.  He’s not bad but he’s not Chancellor either.

There is a lot of upheaval taking place in Seattle as Pete Carroll decided to make some major changes to his coaching staff.  He used to have to replace defensive coordinators because they moved on to head coaching jobs (Gus Bradley, Dan Quinn) but this time he fired Kris Richard and replaced him with Ken Norton Jr.  Norton was fired last year from his defensive coordinator position with the Raiders but he returns to Seattle where he once coached for Carroll before.  Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell was also shown the door (a move applauded by all Seahawk fans who remember the Super Bowl loss) but I’m not sure Brian Schottenheimer was the big-name people were hoping for as a replacement.  He’s been around a long time but he’s bounced around too.  For some reason NFL head coaches like to recycle offensive coordinators like Schottenheimer, Greg Olson, Bill Musgrave and Norv Turner, it’s a pattern.  We will see if Schottenheimer and new offensive line coach Mike Solari can get the guys upfront to play better and give the offense a chance to do something.  It’s going to take more than a little good coaching to get the defense to be good.  For Seahawks fans I fear time may be running out on the Pete Carroll magic and this coach shuffling is just a last-ditch effort to fix things.  It rarely works if ever and they may just be wasting a year of Russell Wilson’s prime.

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The offense will once again be based around the three B’s, Big Ben, Brown and Bell.  Roethlisberger is aging but with the weapons around him and a solid offensive line he’s still a more than effective QB.  Antonio Brown is arguably the best WR in the league and the list of his equals is short.  Le’Veon Bell is once again locked in a contract dispute with the team and he will wait until the season starts to sign his franchise tender and he’ll miss all of training camp.  It will take him a week or two to get going but he’ll be an elite back this season once again.  His absence has given the Steelers the opportunity to see more of James Connor and he looks like an effective alternative to Bell.  WR JuJu Smith-Schuster was very good as a rookie last year and allowed the team to trade Martavis Bryant in the off season.  Smith-Schuster should excel playing opposite Brown and the team added Oklahoma St.’s James Washington in the draft to be a new deep threat.  Washington is proving to be just that this preseason.  The offensive line is a solid group that has proven to be highly effective.  They are not a flashy group but they are good.

As always, the Steelers defense was good last year and it looks to be good again this year.  They have a lot of players in their prime with a mix of still effective veterans with some solid young talent.  DE Cameron Heyward is the veteran on the defensive line while Javon Hargrave and Stephon Tuitt are in their prime years.  There isn’t a lot of depth there but they get the job done.  At LB the team didn’t do anything to replace the injured Ryan Shazier and that could come back to haunt them.  He was a playmaker and the duo of Vince Williams and Tyler Matakevich isn’t scaring anyone.  OLB Bud Dupree gets one more chance to prove he’s the pass rusher the team hoped he is when they drafted him but it’s second-year man TJ Watt who looks to be the playmaker the defense needs.  At CB the team pairs veteran Joe Haden with youngster Artie Burns and they make an effective duo.  At some point Haden could really fall off so they need another youngster like Cameron Sutton to be ready to step in.  The team signed veteran safety Morgan Burnett to fill a hole at strong safety and they are hoping Sean Davis can hold the fort at free safety.  They surprisingly drafted Terrell Edmunds in the first round to be the future but he’s going to need some time to learn.

Mike Tomlin is going into his 11^th season as the head coach of the Steelers, yeah, I can’t believe that either.  He’s reached a point where he’s underappreciated and people are overly critical.  He’s not perfect but he’s done so well that anything less than a Super Bowl is considered a failure by many.  It’s a blessing and a curse.  He made a change this off season jettisoning offensive coordinator Todd Haley and promoting Randy Fichtner.  Fichtner has been Big Ben’s long-time QB coach and he should have a better relationship with Roethlisberger than Haley did.  The offense shouldn’t miss a beat.  Keith Butler has kept the defense humming right along since he took over 3 years ago and he’s done it while having to cover some holes.  This season could be a challenge without a replacement for Shazier leading the way.  The Steelers are still clearly the best team in their division and I don’t see anyone giving them much trouble in the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens offense was pretty terrible last season and it was almost exclusively the fault of the passing game.  The team overhauled their WR corps in the off season and they drafted QB Lamar Jackson in the first round to light a fire under Joe Flacco.  Flacco has been pretty unspectacular since his great playoff run that resulted in the team’s last Super Bowl victory.  The team has paid him a lot of money since then and the drafting of Jackson is the culmination of their frustration.  The running game found its way last year when Alex Collins took over as the lead back.  Collins is a tough runner but he’s not really a weapon in the passing game.  Javoris Allen fills that role and if the two of them stay healthy the running game should be fine.  The top three WRs are new with Michael Crabtree taking over as the top dog, John Brown brought in to be the deep speed and Willie Snead filling the slot.  The only holdover so far is fourth WR Chris Moore and former first round pick Breshad Perriman is on his last chance to just make the roster, I wouldn’t bet on him.  The team took two TEs in the draft, Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews, because their current ones were simply ineffective.  Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams will have to fight off Hurst and Andrews from taking their jobs.  The offensive line is led by RG Marshal Yanda and LT Ronnie Stanley.  The team is hoping Orlando Brown Jr., who fell in the draft, can lock down the RT position because it has been a point of weakness lately.

The Ravens defense is good but it is not great and when coupled with a terrible offense it makes things worse.  The team promoted LB coach Don Martindale to defensive coordinator and they hope he can improve the unit.  They did nothing of significance to improve personnel wise so it’s up the scheme and the improvement of the current players to change the outcome.  It will help if the offense is more effective and puts them in better situations.  The three-man defensive line is still reliant on Brandon Williams to be the playmaker, Michael Pierce and Brent Urban aren’t changing the game.  ILB CJ Mosley is the best player on the defense and one of the best LBs in the league.  The team is hoping to squeeze another year out of Terrell Suggs at OLB, he’s 35 but he still had 11 sacks last season.  Matt Judon was solid last year opposite Suggs but the team really needs one of its youngsters, Za’Darius Smith, Tyus Bowser or Tim Williams, to step up.  CBs Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith are effective corners and the team still has high hopes for Marlon Humphrey.  Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson are veteran safeties and while Weddle still makes plays he’s 33 and the team doesn’t have much depth.

John Harbaugh is entering his 10^th season as the Ravens head coach and he’s still living off the team’s Super Bowl victory in 2012.  Patience is wearing thin but it’s not all his fault.  As good as Ozzie Newsome once was at drafting the team has missed on some key draft picks in recent years.  When you have major misses like Matt Elam and Breshad Perriman drafted in the first round and guys like Maxx Williams, Tim Jernigan and Arthur Brown in the second round it depletes your roster.  They have drafted many starters and contributors over the last decade but the only real star they drafted in that time was CJ Mosley.  Newsome has handed over the reigns but will that change anything.  The team hopes Lamar Jackson can become a star at QB but that’s going to take some time.  For now, the team is still better than the Bengals and the Browns but that’s not saying much.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals offense was pretty bad last season and a lot of that was due to injuries.  The offensive line was a disaster, TE Tyler Eifert only played in two games and they got literally no production out of first round WR John Ross.  They are banking on some of their own guys getting healthy and even the guys they picked up in the off season for the offensive line have health questions.  Love him or hate him the team is rolling with Andy Dalton for another year and there is no AJ McCarron in the wings.  Matt Barkley and Jeff Driskel are the other QBs so it’s Dalton or bust this season.  Joe Mixon is the man at RB and they need him to be the bell cow.  AJ Green is still a monster at WR and his production only suffers because he has no help taking pressure off of him.  He would benefit the most from John Ross and Tyler Eifert getting healthy.  WR Tyler Boyd can be a good WR but the team needs Ross’s speed to stretch the defense and open things up.  TE Tyler Kroft had a solid year last year filling in for Eifert but he doesn’t have the game breaking ability of Eifert.  He’s a good 2^nd TE but they need Eifert.  The offensive line was a disaster and the team traded for LT Cordy Glenn from the Bills.  Unfortunately, he only played in six games last season so the team needs him to get healthy and stabilize the LT spot for them.  The team finally moved on from Russ Bodine at C but they drafted Billy Price to take his place.  Price is really good but he got hurt during the draft process and they need him fully healthy.  The team has to hope 4^th year players Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher can contribute on the right side and fulfill their potential.  LG Clint Boling is the only sure thing on the line.

The defense returns almost its entire starting unit which is good news against the pass and terrible news against the run.  The team has a new defensive coordinator in Teryl Austin who did a pretty good job with less talent in Detroit.  The defensive line is aging so they need to squeeze the last bit of production out of DEs Carlos Dunlop and Michael Johnson and hope DT Geno Atkins can be his old self.  Atkins had 9 sacks from the interior last year but he’s 30 years old so it’s now or never with him.  The LB corps was a problem last season and while it should be a little better this year it’s not completely stable.  They signed Preston Brown from the Bills to solve their MLB spot and that should improve their run defense alone.  The problem is that Vontaze Burfict has been their best LB for the past several years and of course he’s suspended for the first 4 games of the year.  Nick Vigil is the other LB but he’s coming back from a back injury.  The team has three solid corners in William Jackson, Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard but it would be good if one showed out as an elite corner.  The Bengals made a bit of a surprising move during the preseason by cutting veteran safety George Iloka, he’s been a starter for them for five years.  They are going with rookie Jessie Bates at free safety paired with veteran Shawn Williams at strong safety.  Iloka was solid but certainly not irreplaceable, the big question is whether Bates is really ready to handle the starting job.

In what was a bit of a surprising move the Bengals brought back Marvin Lewis after yet another disappointing season.  Lewis is the second longest tenured coach in the league (only Bill Belichick is ahead of him) but he’s never won a playoff game and the team seems to be going backwards.   I would argue it’s not really Lewis’ fault and he has probably been the best coach in the franchise’s history but after 15 years you can make the argument a new voice is needed.  The new voice will have to come form offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who isn’t really new as he actually took over last season after week 2 when the team fired Ken Zampese and promoted Lazor from QB coach.  New defensive coordinator Teryl Austin is new and he comes in from Detroit to change things up.  He’s used to working with less than stellar LBs from his time there and hopefully he can turn one of their CBs into another Darius Slay.  The Bengals will have their work cut out for them as they try to chase the Steelers and probably the Ravens because they are going to have to watch their heels as the Browns actually look like they will be competitive.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns finally have a GM who looks like he has a clue…almost.  John Dorsey seems to finally have a plan at QB with Tyrod Taylor being the immediate solution and Baker Mayfield being the long-term solution.  I may not have agreed with the Mayfield pick but the Browns have been terrible at this QB thing for awhile so it’s time for them to go with a plan.  One thing Dorsey has done is surround his QBs with some actual NFL-level talent at the skill positions.  RB Carlos Hyde was brought in to carry the load and Nick Chubb was drafted to give him a legitimate backup.  Duke Johnson is a RB by position but he’s just a weapon overall, he catches the ball out of the backfield as well as anyone.  TE David Njoku had a solid rookie debut last season and he has all the tools to be an outstanding TE.  Now with a legitimate QB around he should take a step forward.  At WR the team went out and got Jarvis Landry from the Dolphins.  Landry isn’t a game breaker but he’s one of the best and most reliable slot receivers in the league and he makes any QB more comfortable.  The team is desperately hoping Josh Gordon can walk the line and display his immense talent as their big play guy.  Gordon is one of the most talented WRs in the league if he can stay sober, stay straight and stay on the field.  The team drafted another headcase WR in Antonio Callaway.  Callaway would have been a first-round pick but he’s got issues, he already got in trouble during training camp.  The biggest issue on offense is the unsettled offensive line.  Future first ballot Hall-of-Famer Joe Thomas retired and the team has no obvious solution at LT.  They are trying LG Joel Bitonio there and he might be their best solution.  They brought in former first-round bust Greg Robinson and they have tried Shon Coleman there too, neither is those is a great idea.  Coleman can compete on the right side and they have former Steeler Chris Hubbard too.  The interior of the line should be fine with C JC Tretter and RG Kevin Zeitler.  It could be Bitonio back at LG or rookie Austin Corbett taking that spot, either way 4/5 of the offensive line is solid but LT is a big question mark.

The defense was good against the run and below average against the pass and that made for a unit somewhere in the middle overall.  The 0-16 record belongs to the whole team but it wasn’t as much the defense’s problem as it was the offense.  The defensive line is led by DE Myles Garrett who had a solid debut season after coming off an injury.  He’s the foundation of the front line and they need him to be a constant pressure source.  Emmanuel Ogbah plays opposite Garrett and he should benefit from Garrett drawing the offense’s attention.  DT Larry Ogunjobi is solid and if Caleb Brantley could live up to his potential he could be a find.  The strength of the defense is at LB.  Christian Kirksey, Joe Schobert and Jamie Collins are the backbone and they even strengthened the unit by bringing in Mychal Kendricks from the Eagles.  Kirksey and Collins are especially talented players that really solidify this unit.  The Browns secondary was atrocious last year which is why the only holdover is SS Jabrill Peppers and even he wasn’t a full-time player last season.  At CB the team drafted Denzel Ward to be their #1, then they signed EJ Gaines, Terrence Mitchell and TJ Carrie in free agency to overhaul the unit.  Gaines is hurt but it could be anyone’s ballgame opposite Ward to start the year.  The team even traded for Packers CB bust Damarious Randall with the intention of making him their free safety.

The reason I say John Dorsey almost has a clue is the way he handled the coaching staff.  Hue Jackson is 1-31 in two years as the Browns head coach, I know it’s not all his fault, it may not even be mostly his fault.  However, when Dorsey took the GM job I was surprised he didn’t start over with the coaching staff.  I’m not usually one to advocate quick turnover of a staff because I believe stability is good but I’m not a huge believer in Jackson and one win in two years is reason enough to move for a fresh start.  Jackson is going with a fresh start on offense with former Steelers’ offensive coordinator Todd Haley coming in but even that’s questionable.  Haley hasn’t always had an easy relationship with others, including his QBs.  He does bring an attitude and some fire but that might wear thin quickly.  Gregg Williams took over the defense last year and they were way better than they were before even with a terrible secondary.  It should be interesting what he can do with some new talent in the defensive backfield and a healthy Myles Garrett up front.