NFC North

This off season Matthew Stafford became the highest paid player in the NFL with his new contract extension but this division still belongs to Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers will go as far as Rodgers takes them because while they have a top 10 offense they need some improvement on defense.  The Vikings look like their defense will be formidable and it’s their offense that needs to show some consistency.  An improved offensive line along with more time with Sam Bradford and an improved run game will go a long way towards making the Vikings better.  Detroit was a playoff team last season but they face an uphill battle this year with other teams improving in the conference.  They were hoping to have an improved offensive line but losing LT Taylor Decker makes that unlikely.  The Bears can’t quite decide if they are looking to compete (signing free agent QB Mike Glennon) or rebuilding (trading up for QB Mitchell Trubisky).  They are in no man’s land with middling veterans surrounding not enough young talent.  I’m expecting a hard reboot by next year with a new coach, for their sake hopefully one that likes Trubisky.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are a team that is greater than the sum of their individual parts.  Essentially Aaron Rodgers makes their offense better than it should be.  They have a converted WR playing RB in Ty Montgomery and while he’s not a traditional back they find ways to make it work.  WR Jordy Nelson is great but they need to keep him healthy like last year.  The offensive line has had loss after loss over the last few years on the interior but they just keep plugging guys in and getting it done.  It would be good if their starting five (I’m looking at you Bryan Bulaga) would stay healthy because it’s not the deepest group on the team.  New TE Martellus Bennett is probably just as big of an enigma as Jared Cook was last year.  He’s talented but not always consistent.

At times, the defense still feels like Clay Matthews and ten other guys but some of those guys are stepping up.  OLB Nick Perry took some time to develop but he played well last year.  DE Mike Daniels is an unsung hero keeping the linebackers clean and collapsing the pocket more often than he gets credit for.  They are hoping 3^rd year CBs Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins step up this year or they will really have to count on rookie Kevin King and veteran Davon House.  They are the best overall team in the division and they have the X-factor in Aaron Rodgers so they should take the division.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings started out well last year especially considering they got Sam Bradford just before the season started to replace the injured Teddy Bridgewater.  Their offensive undoing was largely a product of injuries and ineffective play on the offensive line and having no real playmakers outside of Stefon Diggs.  The Adrian Peterson era is officially over and rookie RB Dalvin Cook looks like the real deal.  The offensive line was addressed with the signings of LT Riley Reiff and RT Mike Remmers along with the drafting of C Pat Elflein.  LG Nick Easton gives the Vikings four new starters leaving only part-time veteran Joe Berger as the only returner on the line, that’s really good news for Bradford and Cook.  TE Kyle Rudolph and WR Adam Thielen are solid starters that bring consistency.  The team could really use a breakout season from 2^nd year WR Laquan Treadwell to add another dimension to the passing game.

The defense found a nice pass rusher to pair with Everson Griffin in Danielle Hunter last season and now he’ll be the full-time starter.  DT Linval Joseph anchors the middle of the defense and makes life easier on Griffin and Hunter and on the linebackers.  Speaking of LBs former UCLA teammates Eric Kendricks (MLB) and Anthony Barr (OLB) are a fantastic pair.  The team may miss the leadership of Chad Greenway but Kendricks and Barr are real talents.  The secondary has two good young corners in Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes and they are hoping Mackensie Alexander can hold down the nickel spot but if anyone should falter they have the ageless wonder Terrence Newman back again (hey, he’s 39, that’s ancient in NFL years).  FS Harrison Smith is one of the least talked about top defenders in the league.  Smith covers up many mistakes made in front of him and every offense the Vikings face know where Smith is at all times.  A better offensive line and some consistency on that side of the ball could lead the Vikings to a playoff spot this season.

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford had an unexpectedly productive year last year without the retired Calvin Johnson around.  He spread the ball around and got production from Golden Tate and Marvin Jones at WR and passing game was less predictable.  LT Taylor Decker solidified the line last season and the Lions were hoping free agents RT Rick Wagner and OG TJ Lang would continue to improve that group but Decker went down with an injury and that undermines any potential improvement.  They are expected to start former Rams bust Greg Robinson at LT and that could spell trouble for Stafford.  The running game is still a committee made up of Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner which means consistency is still lacking.  TE Eric Ebron finally became a productive member of the offense which gives Stafford a security blanket.

Detroit’s defense hasn’t been a top unit for a very long time and that isn’t going to change this year.  They still rely heavily, if not almost exclusively, on Ezekiel Ansah to bring pressure on the QB.  DT A’Shawn Robinson was good last year inside and Haloti Ngata is still solid even if he is aging and not as dominant as he once was.  They are looking to rookie MLB Jarrad Davis to really step up as their LB corps leaves a lot to be desired, as it has for years.  CB Darius Slay is a tough match up for anyone but the rest of the CB group needs to step up to take the pressure off.  The defense is good enough to compete when Stafford and the offense are highly productive but they don’t win games for this team.  A slight regression from the offense and defense will suffer the consequences.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have to decide if they are looking to compete with Mike Glennon or looking to rebuild around Mitchell Trubisky, being in between those two places means you end up 6-10.  Missing the playoffs and not drafting in the top 10 is a bad place to be especially when you’re not that great at drafting.  The team signed guys like WRs Kendall Wright and Markus Wheaton and CBs Marcus Cooper and Prince Amukamara and none of those guys move the needle on offense or defense.  Then in the preseason they lost their best WR in Cameron Meredith which means a lot of pressure falls on 3^rd year WR Kevin White, he’s basically missed his first two seasons.  The best player on offense is 2^nd year RB Jordan Howard and it looks like he’ll get a hand in the backfield from rookie Tarik Cohen, this offense can use all the help it can get.  The interior of their offensive line; LG Kyle Long, C Cody Whitehair and RG Josh Sitton, is good.  They like Charles Leno, Jr. enough to give him a contract extension at LT and while he’s no world beater he’s better than what they have had there for a while.  RT Bobby Massie is still a replacement level player and they should really look for an upgrade.

The Bears defense is pretty ho-hum.  Playmakers are few and far between and the only guy that really looks like he could become one is OLB Leonard Floyd.  They just gave a contract extension to DL Akiem Hicks mostly because he was good last year in John Fox’s defense and they need some consistency up front but Hicks has bounced around in his career for a reason.  Cooper and Amukamara might be upgrades from the CBs they were running out on defense last season but they don’t scare Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford or Sam Bradford.  Their best defensive back might be FS Eddie Jackson and he’s a rookie that missed last season at Alabama with an injury.  Not sure where this team is going and I’m not sure they know either.

 

 

 

AFC West

The Raiders were one Derek Carr injury away from rolling into the playoffs and being one of the best teams in AFC side of the bracket.  Carr is healthy and while the defense is still missing a few key pieces the team has a great defensive player leading the way, Khalil Mack.  Kansas City’s offense looked fantastic opening night against the Patriots but I’m not going to overreact either way, the Pats defense looked horrible without Donta Hightower.  The Chargers might waste some of the best offensive skill position talent in the NFL behind a suspect offensive line.  They have had injury issue after injury issue over the past several years and the one they can’t overcome is if Philip Rivers goes down.  There’s a reason why Trevor Siemian was a seventh-round draft pick, he’s limited in what he can really do.  He’ll hold down the fort but he isn’t scaring any of the good teams in the AFC.  It isn’t a good sign that Paxton Lynch couldn’t beat him out before he went down with an injury.  Brock Osweiler to the rescue, okay maybe not.

Oakland Raiders

This was the one team that scared me last year as a Patriots fan, right up until the moment Derek Carr went down for the year.  If Carr recaptures his form (and I’m betting he does) this team is going to be very tough.  The Raiders added RB Marshawn Lynch and while I don’t think he’ll be the Beast Mode he used to be he will be better and more consistent than their running game was last season.  Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree give Carr a talented set of WRs to throw to and while TE Jared Cook has always been more of a tease he’s a serious upgrade over their other TEs.  The offensive line was very effective last season and while there may be a bit of a shuffle they should be just fine.

The defense is where the question marks are for the Raiders.  DE Khalil Mack is not one of the questions.  He’s the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and he’ll be looking to add to his trophy collection.  He’s the leader of the defense the same way Carr is the leader of the offense.  The Raiders are going to need some help from some unknown LBs.  Rookie Marquel Lee looks like the leader at MLB while Cory James is slated to start on the weakside.  Another rookie, Eddie Vanderdoes, looks to start at DT and that’s good news because they can really use his size and power up the middle.  The secondary returns intact (CB David Amerson may miss some time) and they add rookie CB Gareon Conley.  The defense will likely be allowed to be very aggressive as the offense will be highly effective.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are built in the image of their coach and QB, Andy Reid and Alex Smith, they aren’t flashy they just get the job done.  The team benefitted from a solid season by their offensive line as LT Eric Fisher matured into the player they thought he could be when he was drafted #1 overall and the addition of RT Mitchell Schwartz solidified the edge.  The unit blocked well for whatever RB they wanted to play and they will need that this year as Spencer Ware is out for the year and will be replaced by rookie Kareem Hunt.  Hunt is a talented player and I really like him.  Tyreek Hill was the major playmaker last year for the Chiefs with 12 TDs and he figures to be a favorite target.  They need someone like Chris Conley to step up as the other WR since they let Jeremy Maclin go in the off season.  TE Travis Kelce was an All-Pro last season and he earned it, he’s Smith’s best security blanket and an absolute matchup nightmare.

Kansas City runs a 3-4 defense and they have the typical workman like defensive linemen for the scheme; Allen Bailey, Chris Jones and Bennie Logan.  They have the grizzled veteran ILB Derrick Johnson who just keeps coming back and tackling people.  He’s joined by Ramik Wilson and they are flanked by the stars of the 3-4 OLBs Justin Houston and Dee Ford.  Ford is replacing the venerable Tamba Hali who is starting the season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list.  The secondary is led by two All-Pro players in SS Eric Berry and CB Marcus Peters.  FS Ron Parker is solid but with CB Steven Nelson placed on injured reserve it will be up to either Terrence Mitchell or Phillip Gaines to step up because no QB in their right mind throws it anywhere near Marcus Peters.  The Chiefs will likely be a wildcard team in the AFC.

Los Angeles Chargers

There’s a new head coach in Anthony Lynn but he was smart enough to retain offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt who has a good relationship with QB Phillip Rivers.  The Chargers have plenty of talent at the skill positions especially if they can keep their WRs healthy.  RB Melvin Gordon and TE Hunter Henry are young guys that are really coming into their own and are valuable weapons for Rivers.  If WR Keenan Allen can stay healthy he’s a legitimate #1 WR and they are hoping rookie WR Mike Williams can overcome some back issues and contribute, he has #1 WR potential.  Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are good #2 and #3 WRs to have complementing those guys.  The Chargers problem on offensive is the same one they have had for a few years now and that’s the offensive line.  They have battled many injuries over the past few years and they already have one that really hurts.  Rookie Forrest Lamp would have been a starter but he’s out for the year already.  I’m not sure new LT Russell Okung is the answer but he’s better than what they have been starting at LT lately.  They are still struggling to find a legitimate starting center and their veteran group of linemen; RT Joe Barksdale, LG Matt Slauson and RG Kenny Wiggins leave a lot to be desired.  A mediocre offensive line is not what you want when your QB is as stationary as Phillip Rivers.  Rivers is a fantastic passer but he’s about as mobile as the Statue of Liberty.

The defense has a new coordinator in Gus Bradley and while he was a bit of a disaster as a head coach in Jacksonville he’s a very good defensive mind.  DE Joey Bosa was a star as a rookie last year even after getting a late start and he forms a good front to their 3-4 defense with DT Brandon Mebane and DE Corey Luiget.  OLB Melvin Ingram is the star of the LB corps and he and Bosa bring the pressure on the opposing QBs.  The rest of the LBs are non-descript but they just need to hold their own.  CBs Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett form a talented duo and rookie Desmond King looks to take over as the nickel corner.  If the defense can get pressure they could really force some turnovers.

Denver Broncos

Count me as someone with serious doubts about the Denver Broncos this season.  They have a new head coach in Vance Joseph, a new offensive coordinator in the Mike McCoy and a new defensive coordinator in Joe Woods.  Trevor Siemian may have won the QB competition against Paxton Lynch but that doesn’t give me great confidence in them.  Siemian is a placeholder and the more teams see him the more they will figure him out.  He was supposed to be holding the spot for Lynch, the former first-round pick, but Lynch can’t seem to take the job away (that’s not a great sign).  RB CJ Anderson has had a great year in his career but he also has had a bad year before.  His success will be predicated on the improvement of the offensive line.  The line play for the Broncos was bad last year and they went out and signed two new starters and drafted one in the first round.  Rookie LT Garrett Bolles (the first-rounder) had an uneven preseason and they need him to solidify the LT spot that has been a problem since Ryan Clady’s time in Denver came to an end a few years ago.  RT Menelik Watson was a part-time starter in Oakland and OG Ronald Leary comes in from Dallas and while they may be upgrades from last season they are inconsistent players too.

The defense is supposed to be the strength of the Broncos team and they have plenty of talent but they are missing a few key pieces this year.  Don’t underestimate the loss of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, he has never been a good head coach but he’s one of the best defensive coordinators in NFL history.  The lost DeMarcus Ware to retirement and his replacement is supposed to be Shane Ray but he’s injured.  That puts a lot of pressure on Von Miller as the only accomplished pass rusher on the team.  Ray was placed on injured reserve with the intention of him coming back halfway through the year but the Broncos could be buried by then.  The secondary is still stacked with CBs Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby and safety Darian Stewart but the late release of SS TJ Ward could hurt them out of the gate.  I really liked Justin Simmons coming out of college but it’s a tall order replacing Ward’s play and leadership.  I think the Broncos struggle early this year and hopefully for them Paxton Lynch gets back soon enough that they can give him a shot at starting to see if he’s their long-term solution at QB.

 

AFC East Preview

This division has been dominated by the Patriots for a long time and that isn’t going to change this year.  The Patriots are still the odds-on favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  The Dolphins may finish second in the division by default because the Bills are in a major transition from the Rex Ryan/Doug Whaley era to the new Sean McDermott/Brandon Beane era and the Jets are a bad episode of The Walking Dead right now.  Let’s take a closer look.

New England Patriots

As long as it’s Bill Belichick and Tom Brady leading the way this team remains the favorite in the AFC East.  Even with the season ending injury to Julian Edelman Brady will make the offense work, he always does.  They are better equipped to handle the loss of Edelman with Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell at WR than they are to handle the free agent defection of LeGarrette Blount.  The additions of Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee are solid but neither one is the power back Blount was.  Gillislee will hopefully handle the between the tackle pounding but he’s never been a workhorse back before.  The offensive line was very good last year and if they can remain healthy that should be the case again.

The defense will be good even if no one knows the names of the guys the Patriots are running out there at DE.  The defensive front is made up of a number of castoffs and no-names (with the exception of Malcolm Brown) but they will be fine.  The addition of former Jets LB David Harris will be a steadying force next to Donta Hightower and free agent CB Stephon Gilmore really solidifies the secondary.  Gilmore and Malcolm Butler are one of the better CB tandems in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins

Even with Jay Cutler taking the reins of the offense the Dolphins are still the second-best team in the AFC East.  Cutler was a disaster overall in Chicago, especially at the end, but his best year was with Adam Gase as his offensive coordinator.  The Dolphins offer Cutler a much better opportunity for success than he had most of the time in Chicago because they have plenty of talent to surround him with.  RB Jay Ajayi, WRs Devante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and TE Julius Thomas give him plenty of weapons and the offensive line made strides last season.

The defense is counting on rookie DE Charles Harris and trade acquisition Williams Hayes to help bring some pressure so that Cameron Wake isn’t the only guy chasing down QBs.  The LB corps has been hit by a couple of season ending injuries to Koa Misi and rookie Raekwon McMillan so they will be counting on veterans Lawrence Timmons and Rey Maualuga to squeeze one more year out of their aging games.  The secondary returns intact and they will wait to see if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.

Buffalo Bills

The new Coach/GM tandem of Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have made the decision to move on from many of the personnel decisions of the Ryan/Whaley regime and they are not wasting time.  WR Sammy Watkins, CB Ronald Darby and LB Reggie Ragland are just a few of the bigger names they have already traded and they are collecting draft picks in 2018 like baseball cards.  The Bills will have two picks in each of the first three rounds of the 2018 draft, if Beane is better at making those picks than Whaley was the Bills could turn around their fortunes pretty quickly.  They are sticking with QB Tyrod Taylor for this year but I wouldn’t be surprised if they use some of that draft capital next year to get themselves a new franchise QB.  They will rely heavily on RB LeSean McCoy this season as their passing game will be a work in progress with new WR Jordan Matthews just arriving in a trade and rookie Zay Jones being the next guy.

The Bills defense is in a state of flux as Sean McDermott comes from being the Panthers defensive coordinator and is looking to change things up.  He is also looking to instill some discipline that was lacking in the Ryan era and that is causing friction with DT Marcel Dareus who is in McDermott’s doghouse at the moment.  They are hoping to get something out of former 1^st round pick DE Shaq Lawson or that may be another draft pick they move on from.  The LB corps is less than spectacular and with the change from a 3-4 system to a 4-3 system the schematic fit of the players on the roster is a bit of a mess.  The secondary is changing over as trade acquisition EJ Gaines and rookie Tre’Davious White look to take over a CB and free agent addition Micah Hyde steps in at safety.  The Bills were going nowhere fast under Ryan/Whaley, at least now they have a new direction.

New York Jets

The “Suck for Sam” campaign is off and running.  That’s the Jets race to the worst record in the NFL so they can draft Sam Darnold from USC next year to be their QB of the future.  It could be for Josh Rosen or Josh Allen or Mason Rudolph or anyone else with half a pulse at QB, they won’t be picky.  The trio of Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty look like they are going to set offensive football back about four decades.  The Jets offense is led by 31-year old RB Matt Forte or Bilal Powell who has never been a workhorse back.  Their top WRs are Robby Anderson and the newly acquired Jermaine Kearse, don’t worry nobody knows who those guys are.  The offensive line is made up of five guys that probably shouldn’t be starting for anyone in the NFL.  This offense could be brutal this season.

The defense has some solid building blocks as a foundation for the future with defensive lineman Leonard Williams, LB Darron Lee and safety Jamal Adams.  Unfortunately for them that’s only three of the 11 guys they have to play on defense.  DE Muhammad Wilkerson, LB Demario Davis, CBs Morris Claiborne and Buster Skrine should all be in the prime of their careers but they will be wasting it on a team going nowhere.  Young LBs Jordan Jenkins and Lorenzo Mauldin may have futures with this team and they are hopeful rookie safety Marcus Maye is a find.  The defense could be okay this year but they are going to be on the field far too often to be effective.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it

While we won’t really know what the Iowa offense will look like until they get on the field and play, everyone knows what the Iowa defense will look like.  It’s been the same since Norm Parker took over when Kirk Ferentz took the job and Phil Parker hasn’t changed it much it all.  There has been the addition, and then the slight subtraction, of the Raider Package.  Overall, it’s a 4-3 defense predicated on the front four getting pressure, the linebackers tackling and filling gaps and the secondary playing back and looking for opportunities.  Iowa’s best defenses have generally happened when they have great talent that executes well and this season’s front seven is deeper and potentially more talented than any group in the Ferentz era.  Middle LB Josey Jewell is an All-American caliber star and leader.  Ben Niemann and Bo Bower flank him and bring a lot of experience.  The defensive end position is loaded with Anthony Nelson, Parker Hesse, AJ Epenesa and Matt Nelson (if he’s not lined up at DT) and a multitude of other options if needed.  DT isn’t as deep or experienced but has some intriguing options.  The secondary is a bit of a question mark after losing All-American Desmond King and Greg Mabin to graduation and having FS Brandon Snyder blow out his knee in the spring.  The only returning starter is Miles Taylor and he is not coming off a very good season last year and he needs to not only improve his performance but take on a leadership role.  Phil Parker coaches the secondary and this year Seth Wallace has added the title of Assistant Defensive Coordinator so perhaps Parker will be able to spend a little extra time getting the young secondary ready to roll.

Let’s take a look at the positions

Defensive End

Starters: Parker Hesse (Jr)           Anthony Nelson (So) or Matt Nelson (Jr)

Hesse had to step in his redshirt freshman year when he was undersized and had just moved to DE from LB when Drew Ott got hurt.  He acquitted himself quite nicely and he’s become a steady presence on one side of the line.  His reliability is important and he makes the plays he’s supposed to make.  The other end spot is shared by Anthony and Matt Nelson (no they are not brothers).  Both players are tall and long but they bring different skill sets to the position.  Matt is the stronger player against the run while Anthony brings more speed off the edge.  It is very likely that Anthony will get more snaps at DE simply because the coaches have decided to use Matt at DT at times because he creates problems inside with his height and he brings more size and experience at DT where those two things are in short supply.  Anthony is a major breakout candidate and he should lead the Hawkeyes in sacks.  Unless…

Backups: AJ Epenesa (Fr)             Sam Brincks (Jr)

AJ Epenesa could prove to be as good as advertised.  Epenesa is a five-star recruit unlike any recruit during the Ferentz era.  Even when Kirk Ferentz has had highly rated recruits he’s usually one to temper expectations if for no other reason than to lessen the focus on said recruit.  That didn’t happen with Epenesa.  Once he signed his letter of intent Ferentz talked about him playing this year.  He’s 6’5 270 lbs. and he’s a physical freak.  He can hold his own against anyone and while Phil Parker started out talking about him playing 15-20 snaps a game he’s proven good enough that the coaches feel comfortable moving Matt Nelson inside to DT when needed.  Epenesa has basically become the third DE behind Hesse and Anthony Nelson.  He could very well challenge Anthony Nelson as the sack leader on this team.  Sam Brincks is a walk-on with some experience but he’ll have to hold off a group of young DEs if he wants to hold on to his backup job.

The Depth

Considering the Hawkeyes don’t have a single senior DE expected to play it’s safe to say the guys already mentioned are the future and the future looks bright.  That doesn’t mean there isn’t some young depth that is looking to make a push to get into the game and make a name for themselves.  There are four redshirt freshmen; Chauncey Golston, Austin Schulte, Brandon Simon and Romeo McKnight, that would all like a chance to find some playing time.  With Hesse, the Nelsons, Epenesa and Brincks they have their work cut out for them.  Several of them came into their freshmen seasons last year coming off injuries from their senior year of high school so they are just getting around to showing the coaches what they can do.  They all have potential but the coaches have time to see who really steps up and they won’t be pressed to play any of them.  True freshman Levi Duwa is listed as a DE but he had shoulder surgery recently and will surely redshirt this season, it is also reasonable to think he may grow into a DT in time and the Hawkeyes will end up playing him inside.

Defensive Tackle

Starters: Nathan Bazata (Sr)        Cedric Lattimore (Soph)

Bazata is the one known commodity at DT and that’s after a year in which he missed a lot of time due to injury and wasn’t as effective when he did play because of it.  He’s not the playmaking pocket collapsing DT guys like Jaleel Johnson and Carl Davis have been in the past few years but if he’s healthy he’ll anchor the middle of the line just fine.  The Hawkeyes are looking for someone to make a few plays, be tough against the run and generally complement Bazata’s steadiness.  Cedric Lattimore got some playing time last season as an undersized true freshman especially when Bazata was out (he was the third DT behind Johnson and Faith Ekakitie).  That experience gives him a leg up on the other young guys but it’s also the reason the coaches are experimenting with Matt Nelson inside.  Nelson has plenty of snaps under his belt and with the depth at DE he will be used inside especially on passing downs.  A defensive line of Hesse, Nelson, Nelson and Epenesa can bring some serious pass rush and their length will make passing lanes hard to come by.

The Depth

Garrett Jansen (Soph) and Brady Reiff (Soph) are listed as the backups to Bazata and Lattimore and there isn’t much else to count on.  Both of them have talent but they aren’t the biggest guys and they are still inexperienced.  Jake Newborg (Soph) just moved to DT from the offensive line last year and senior walk-on Jake Hulett has been in the two-deeps before but has never been a major contributor.  Duwa is likely to end up at DT once he grows into his frame and this position is a point of emphasis in the next recruiting class.

Linebacker

Outside Linebacker

Starter: Ben Niemann (Sr)                          Backup: Kevin Ward (Sr)

Niemann is coming off a junior season where his effectiveness was diminished by injury issues.  He didn’t progress as far as you would have hoped after a really good sophomore year.  He’s looking to rebound this season and have fantastic senior year and if he’s healthy he has the potential to be great.  Ward is a former walk-on who was awarded a scholarship because he proved to be a valuable player especially in pass coverage.  He was a defensive back and while he’s still undersized his coverage skills are top notch.

Middle Linebacker

Starter: Josey Jewell (Sr)              Backups: Jack Hockaday (Jr)   Kristian Welch (Soph)

Jewell is the foundation of the Hawkeye defense and he makes everyone better.  He’s a tackling machine and is rarely out of position.  He knows where everyone is supposed to be and gets them lined up correctly and his leadership is unquestioned.  He’ll be a third-year captain, yeah that has never happened before under Ferentz.  It’s a cliché’ but he’s the heart and soul of the Hawkeye defense. Luckily for Iowa they do have some talented players behind Jewell who are hopefully soaking up everything they can from the Outlaw.  Jack Hockaday has played a bit at different positions and has learned plenty and Kristian Welch is a top-notch athlete that could excel in the middle.  Hopefully Iowa doesn’t have to worry about which one gets to play until next spring.

Weakside Linebacker

Starter: Bo Bower (Sr)                  Backups: Amani Jones (Soph)   Aaron Mends (Jr)

This is the spot where the fanbase will likely find their whipping boy again.  Bower has taken plenty of criticism over the years and Amani Jones is seen as a guy with a huge upside.  Bower has had his struggles and when he has some again this year Ferentz and Parker are likely still going to stick with him.  Hopefully Bower has a Cole Fisher like senior year (although he’s played a lot more than Fisher ever did before his senior year).  Jones is a good-looking player that just brings an attitude and ferocity to the position while Bower is more of a lunch pail type of player.  We will see Jones for sure.  Mends is an undersized player that has been used in the Raider package in the past and he can bring some athleticism to the position too.

The Future (and then some)

Iowa starts three seniors and has another one as a backup so it would seem like next year they will struggle losing so much but don’t count on it.  Hockaday, Welch, Jones and Mends are just the beginning of the talent the Hawkeyes have on hand.  This team will be far better equipped to replace its three senior LBs than it was the last time they had to do that (Morris, Kirksey and Hitchens anyone).  Besides the obvious dogfights between Hockaday and Welch, and Jones and Mends the Hawkeyes have redshirt freshman Nick Niemann, Kyle Taylor and Barrington Wade and true freshmen Nate Wieland and Djimon Colbert.  The future is in good hands.

Defensive Backs

Cornerback

Starters: Manny Rugamba (Soph)            Josh Jackson (Jr)

Rugamba is suspended for the Wyoming game for breaking team rules but once he’s back he’s unquestionably the starter so I’m leaving him here.  He stepped up in a big way last season when the Hawkeyes had some injuries pile up a CB and even as a true freshman he played well.  No one can replace what Desmond King was to the Hawkeye defense but Rugamba can hold his own and match up with just about anyone.  He’s still young and he’ll make his mistakes but he won’t back down from a challenge.  Josh Jackson bounced around a bit early in his career between CB and WR but now he’s the other starting CB and for the first game he’s the top guy.  He is a great athlete and he’s still learning the nuances of the position but once he does I think he’s going to be very tough.  If he ends up being better this season than Rugamba I wouldn’t be all that shocked.  This is a young, talented duo that will hopefully take advantage of the pressure the front four should get on the QB this season.

Backups: Michael Ojemudia (Soph)                        Matt Hankins (Fr)

Ojemudia will step in for Rugamba the first game of the year and then he’ll continue to have to hold off true freshman Matt Hankins who is working his way up the depth chart.  Ojemudia has played some and been fine but he hasn’t really excelled and until the freshmen showed up he really wasn’t being pushed for his position.  Hankins has come in and already passed Cedric Boswell (RS Fr) on the depth chart and he’s hoping to be the third CB.  He’ll get his chance as the nickel back against Wyoming and don’t be surprised if he keeps the job.  He doesn’t lack for confidence and Phil Parker has never been shy about playing true freshmen in the defensive backfield (just ask Rugamba).

The Depth (the Future is the Present)

That’s a junior, two sophomores and a true freshman in the two-deeps, these guys should grow together nicely.  Cedric Boswell (RS Fr) has already been officially passed by Hankins and the coaching staff talks about Trey Creamer (Fr) and Josh Turner (Fr) playing if need be before they mention Boswell. That means of the top six CBs three of them are true freshmen.  Cameron Harrell (Fr) came into fall camp and started out as a WR but there has been some mention of him moving to CB.  The biggest issue for the CB position overall is experience but luckily, they aren’t lacking in talent.

Strong Safety

Starter: Miles Taylor (Sr)              Backup: Noah Clayberg (Fr)   Geno Stone (Fr)

Taylor was pretty good two years ago and then last year not so much.  He wasn’t playing well and then he got banged up and Anthony Gair stepped in and played well in his place.  Unfortunately, Gair graduated and now Taylor is backed up by a couple of freshmen.  The Hawkeyes need Taylor to be much better than he was last season and he needs to take on a leadership role on the field given the injury to Brandon Snyder.  Clayberg spent last season as a greyshirt (he wasn’t a full-time student until second semester so he is still technically a true freshman).  He participated in spring practice, first as a RB and then moved to safety.  He’s a good athlete and a natural for the safety position.  Geno Stone has a fantastic name for a future strong safety and the game to match.  Like I said before, Phil Parker has never shied from playing true freshmen in the secondary so Taylor better raise his game or he will be looking over his shoulder.

Free Safety

Starter: Jake Gervase (Jr)             Backup: Amani Hooker (So)

This was supposed to be Brandon Snyder’s spot but the junior tore his ACL in the spring and he’s not expected to play this season.  Gervase was a walk-on that was backing him up in the spring and stepped up in a big way.  In the spring practice Gervase had more interceptions than any one WR had catches.  He’s a pretty classic Iowa safety, a solid athlete that understands where he’s supposed to be and makes tackles.  It’s unfortunate for Snyder as he was a potential breakout candidate but this gives Gervase a chance to show what he can do.  Hooker was a major playmaker in high school and he’s sort of bounced between strong safety and free safety and he’s likely the third safety if either Taylor or Gervase go down.  It’s possible if Taylor struggles the coaches could turn to Hooker since he has a little more experience than Clayberg and Stone.

The Depth

There is no depth and Hooker, Clayberg and Stone are the future.  The rest of the roster is a few walk-ons.  True freshman Djimon Colbert was originally brought in as a safety but the coaches quickly moved him to OLB during camp.  It’s not surprising that DB has been a priority in the next recruiting class but Taylor is the only senior so unless there are a number of injuries it’s not a pressing issue. It is possible that one of the young CBs; Creamer, Turner, Harrell or Boswell are moved to the safety position to cultivate some depth.  In a pinch, it’s possible Ojemudia would slide over given the fact he has a little more size than some of the younger guys.

The talent of the players in the front seven; Jewell, Nelson, Nelson, Hesse, Epenesa, Bazata, Lattimore, Niemann and Bower is pretty impressive.  When Iowa controls the line of scrimmage and keeps the LBs free to run and chase down RBs it makes Iowa’s defense special.  The secondary has to hold their own but they should receive a boost from an improved pass rush.  Given that I just named nine players from the front seven hopefully Phil Parker has come up with some ways to use all the talent he has up front to create havoc.  The backup LBs are all athletic guys that bring something to the table too so seeing them used in unique ways would be a welcomed sight.  The depth and talent on defense is better than Iowa has had in some time and hopefully the offense won’t waste a good defense.

 

 

The Brian Ferentz era begins

The biggest questions about the Iowa Hawkeyes this year come on the offensive side of the ball.  It starts with replacing CJ Beathard at QB and that is still technically an open question.  Sophomore Nathan Stanley and Junior Tyler Wiegers have been battling since the spring and while both Kirk and Brian Ferentz have maintained it’s an open competition there does seem to be a bit of a lean towards Stanley.  The only question as pressing as the QB position is who is going to play WR besides Matt VandeBerg?  There are a number of choices; JUCO walk-on Nick Easley, New Mexico grad transfer Matt Quarells, junior Adrian Falconer, sophomore Devonte Young or one of three true freshmen Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Brandon Smith or Max Cooper.  As I mentioned it’s a new era as Greg Davis is finally gone and Brian Ferentz is in charge of the offense.  He has said he won’t stray too far from Iowa’s identity and with this year’s offensive line and RB group that’s probably a smart move.  My one sincere hope is that Brian Ferentz is a better game planner and play caller than Greg Davis ever was and he understands how to use the weapons available to him.

Let’s look at each position.

Quarterbacks

Starter: Nathan Stanley (Soph)             Backup: Tyler Wiegers (Jr)

It isn’t official but I would be shocked if Stanley isn’t under center to start the season against Wyoming.  He’s got all the tools you could want in a QB, he’s 6’5 235 lbs. with a cannon for an arm and good athleticism.  His two biggest question marks are his comfort running the offense and his leadership.  Stanley is a true sophomore with virtually no experience so those are questions to be expected.  Wiegers simply doesn’t have the ceiling Stanley has so it seems the coaches are giving Stanley every chance to win the job.  Wiegers gives the coaches some stability if Stanley falters but it would have to be a substantial problem for the coaches to pull the plug.  Sophomore Ryan Boyle has gone back and forth between QB and WR over the last year or so but with Drew Cook moving to TE this spring Boyle has settled in as the #3 QB…for now.

Future: Peyton Mansell

True freshman Mansell is a good athlete with talent but not much has been said about him in camp so far.  The fact that the coaches are keeping Boyle at QB means they have no intention of putting Mansell on the field this year and he’ll take a redshirt.

Running Backs

Starters: Akrum Wadley (Sr)                  James Butler (Sr)

Akrum Wadley is clearly the top offensive weapon for Brian Ferentz’s offense this year.  After being a 1000-yard rusher last season and a top contributor in the passing game Wadley is the game breaker this offense needs. He has speed and shiftiness that make him a matchup nightmare for opponents and Iowa has to find a way to get the ball in his hands 25 times a game minimum.  The arrival of Nevada graduate transfer James Butler means that Wadley won’t have to shoulder the load in the backfield alone.  He was great in tandem with LeShun Daniels last season and Butler should bring a similar power back style.  Butler can take the between the tackles runs so Wadley doesn’t have to take that punishment.  He can also catch so Wadley and Butler give Brian Ferentz plenty of options out of the backfield.  Butler ran for over 1300 yards twice while at Nevada so he’s an accomplished college RB.

The Depth: Toren Young (RS Freshman)          Toks Akinribade (Soph)

Toks Akinribade stepped up last season as a true freshman to be the third RB behind Wadley and Daniels when Derrick Mitchell got injured.  His emergence meant Toren Young redshirted but things changed in the spring.  During spring practice, before James Butler transferred in, Young looked like the guy ready to replace Daniels as the power back.  Young’s time may have to wait a year until Wadley and Butler graduate.  Akinribade seems to have slipped a bit after falling behind Young in the spring and now incoming true freshman Ivory Kelly-Martin is getting some notice.

The Future:  With Wadley, Butler, Young and Akinribade it certainly seems like Ivory Kelly-Martin and fellow freshman Kyshaun Bryan should be able to redshirt.  However, keep an eye on Kelly-Martin, he has some impressive high school tape and he may be impressing the coaches enough now to make his case for playing time.  Bryan is basically assured of redshirting unless some serious injury issues arise (that is not an attempt to awaken the curse).

Fullbacks

Starter: Drake Kulick (Sr)          Backup: Brady Ross (Soph)

As always, the Iowa fullbacks are the unsung heroes and in this case Kulick, Ross and junior Austin Kelly look like they were all built in the same fullback production facility.  I believe the football program owns the patent.  The FB spot is in good hands, no need to worry.  Iowa’s run game is always better with effective FB play, that shouldn’t be a problem this year.

Tight Ends

Starters: Noah Fant (Soph)      Backup: TJ Hockenson (RS Freshman)

Fant is clearly the starter and he will be one of the more important offensive weapons on the team this season.  He’s big, athletic and can be a dynamic playmaker.  Those are in short supply for the Hawkeyes so they should move Fant all over the field to create mismatches and get him open.  Technically the Hawkeyes list two starting TEs and Hockenson is the other one opposite Fant.  As a redshirt freshman, we haven’t seen him on the field but he was an accomplished receiver in high school and he could be a weapon in the passing game.  He’ll probably leave the blocking up to some of the older, more physically mature guys for now but he’ll get there.  For now, he just needs to be a playmaker in the passing game.

The Depth/The Future:

Nate Wieting is currently listed as a backup but there are a number of TEs that will see playing time.  Senior Jon Wisnieski will attempt to finally be healthy this season but that seems unlikely.  Senior Peter Pekar proved to be a valuable blocker and can catch a pass when needed. Redshirt freshman Shaun Beyer has playmaker potential.  Sophomore Nate Vejvoda, QB turned TE Drew Cook and true freshman Jacob Coons are all looking to develop and be options in the future.

Offensive Line

Considering this group returns 4 full-time starters and one part-time starter on a unit that was named the top offensive line in the nation there may still be some shuffling of this group.  Boone Myers is listed as the starting LT but the coaches flipped some things around for the Kid’s Day practice and there may be some changes possible.  So, here’s where things are right now and where they might go.

Left Tackle

Boone Myers (Sr) is listed as the starter but he played left guard during the open practice and he may be better suited inside where his power would be better utilized.  With Myers playing left guard Ike Boettger (Sr) moved over to LT and he has some length and athleticism that might come in handy at LT.  This may be just an experiment but it helps to have multiple guys trained at such an important spot.  Speaking of training, don’t be surprised if redshirt freshman Alaric Jackson (listed as the backup) sees some time here.  He’s really impressed the coaches and it’s his job to lose next year.  He’s a fantastic athlete and could be Iowa’s next great offensive tackle.

Left Guard

Keegan Render (Jr) stepped in and started a few games last season at guard due to some injuries and he played pretty well.  He isn’t the most dynamic athlete or devastating blocker but he knows his assignments and gets the job done.  Myers might be better suited inside if the Hawkeyes can find someone they think can handle LT and he is a devastating blocker inside at guard.  Ross Reynolds (Jr) is listed as the backup but he has cross trained at multiple positions so he could end up anywhere.

Center

James Daniels (Jr) is the only player on the line that is certain to start at his specified position.  Daniels is a star in the making at center and he is a dominating presence on the line.  He is a future NFL early round draft pick and he will lead this line from the pivot.  He has a real shot at winning the Rimington Award for the best center in college football this season.  Two redshirt freshmen are listed as his backup; Spencer Williams and Cole Banwart.  I hope these two have to wait two years to duke it out to replace Daniels but he could be an NFL draft pick in 2018.

Right Guard

This is Sean Welsh’s (Sr) position unless the coaches decide they need him to start at RT or somewhere else.  Welsh is an impressive RG and he’ll make his NFL money inside but he can play RT and do so well enough to be the starter if that’s what the Hawkeye’s need.  In a pinch, I wouldn’t doubt Welsh’s ability to start at any of the five offensive line positions.  He’s an All-Big Ten player and potential All-American.  Levi Paulsen (Soph) is listed as Welsh’s backup and there are plenty of options as backup interior linemen including his twin brother Landon.  The Paulsens could play a variety of positions but at the moment they are simply blocked by superior talent.

Right Tackle

Ike Boettger (Sr) has mostly started at RT during his career and the coaches have taken the fact that he is so experienced at the position to cross train him at LT just in case of emergency.  It’s possible they find him playing LT gives them the best combination but I think if they decide to move Boone Myers inside to LG it will be because Alaric Jackson proves he’s earned a shot at LT.  Boettger makes a dominant right side of the line with Welsh and they pave the way for the running game.  Lucas LeGrand (Jr) is a guy that has been listed all over the line including some time at center but now he’s Boettger’s backup.  In truth, he’s probably the fourth OT behind Myers, Boettger and Jackson and late word out of camp is that true freshman Tristan Wirfs is potentially going to play this year and not redshirt.  That means he’s likely the fourth OT.

The Future:  After some slim years in recruiting (especially at OT) the tide has turned and the Hawkeyes have some really impressive young talent on the offensive line.  Inside they have redshirt freshmen Spencer Williams and Cole Banwart who have already made the depth chart at center.  Fellow redshirt freshman OT Alaric Jackson is also in the two-deeps and he looks like a star.  The freshman class looks even more impressive.  True freshman OT Tristan Wirfs is the type of physical specimen Iowa rarely gets at offensive line and he could play this year.  He’s a freakish athlete and a future starter at OT, and it’s not that far into the future.  Mark Kallenberger is no slouch and while he may be talented enough to play early he’s likely going to redshirt since the Hawkeyes have plenty of depth.  Coy Kirkpatrick is another guy that just needs some time to grow into his frame and then he will be looking to make a move up the depth chart.  Iowa’s future on the offensive line looks pretty secure with this group.

Wide Receiver

Starters: Matt VandeBerg (Sr)               Nick Easley (Jr)

VandeBerg is the only known commodity among an uncertain group at WR.  He’s a fifth-year senior and is only back because he missed most of last season with a foot injury and was granted a medical redshirt year.  He broke that foot again and missed spring practice so suffice it to say the coaches are being pretty careful with him in fall camp.  He needs some time to mesh with whomever starts at QB but since he’s the best WR the Hawkeyes have he’s going to be a major part of the offense.  If this wasn’t the internet and I could pencil in Nick Easley’s name I would.  He was the most consistent guy in spring practice after transferring in from JUCO last January but that’s not really setting the bar very high.  Easley may be best suited to play the slot but that’s also where VandeBerg does most of his damage.  The Hawkeyes need some outside receivers to step up.  Easley may start week 1 but his hold on the position may be tentative.

The Rest of the WR

I could call this the depth or the future but the depth is the future and no one knows what they have here and we won’t until they get out on the field and play a real game.  Junior Matt Quarells graduated from New Mexico in three years and transferred to Iowa with two years of eligibility left.  He’s the only WR not named VandeBerg to have caught a pass in a FBS game in his career.  He wasn’t a prolific pass catcher but that was more a function of New Mexico’s option offense than his skill.  He has size and speed and the coaches are hoping he picks the offense up quickly and can contribute soon.  Adrian Falconer (Jr) is listed as the backup to VandeBerg and it would be great if he would step up and contribute but he’s a Bobby Kennedy guy so I’m not sure we should expect much.  DeVonte Young (Jr) is Easley’s backup on the depth chart and hopefully his one year under Kennedy can be overcome by some superior coaching.  Young has looked solid and he could be the type of outside WR the Hawks need. There are three true freshmen pushing to move up the depth chart and are expected to play.  Ihmir Smith-Marsette (Fr) is a bit skinny at 6’2 175 lbs. but he has the type of deep speed the Hawkeyes need to push the defense off the line and open up the running game.  In addition to his speed he tracks the deep ball well and can actually catch it.  Brandon Smith (Fr) is the freshman that looks physically ready to contribute to a Big Ten team.  He’s 6’3 205 lbs. and has fantastic athleticism and the type of vertical that will help him come down with jump balls and hopefully be a weapon in the red zone.  Max Cooper (Fr) may end up being the Matt VandeBerg clone and be a top weapon from the slot.  For now, he’s just going to mimic VandeBerg’s freshman year when he was the guy that emerged from a large WR class and didn’t redshirt.  Cooper may have to fight through a few more bodies because he doesn’t bring a specific skill like deep speed (Smith-Marsette) or size (Smith) he’s just a good all-around WR prospect that can make a play when needed. True freshman Henry Marchese is almost assuredly going to redshirt and two other prospects, Trey Creamer and Cam Harrell are guys that have been talked about (Creamer) or actually worked at (Harrell) WR but are not exactly certain in their position.  For now, they look like they will both add depth to the defensive backfield but that could change if need be.

Overall

Brian Ferentz has some work to do settling on and developing a QB, finding the best combination at offensive line, and figuring out who is going to be the guys that really step up at WR.  He isn’t without playmakers with Akrum Wadley, James Butler, Matt VandeBerg, Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson and the potential of young WRs DeVonte Young, Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith.  My sincere hope is that Brian Ferentz isn’t beholden to some antiquated system and simply chooses to find ways to use the weapons he has.  Yes, that is a direct shot at Greg Davis and his refusal to adjust his terrible offensive scheme to use the guys Iowa had.  And no adding the jet sweep for Jonathan Parker to run every time he was on the field doesn’t count.  My confidence in Brian comes from the fact that his other influence in coaching besides his dad is Bill Belichick.  Belichick has had Patriot offenses that revolved around big physical RBs (Corey Dillon, Antwoine Smith, LaGarrette Blount), one tall speed WR and a small slot receiver (Randy Moss, Wes Welker), two dominant TEs (Rob Gronkowski and the felon), and multiple small receivers (Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, James White, Dion Lewis).  Now all he needs is for Nathan Stanley to become Tom Brady, I’m sure that’s the easy part.