Chicago Bears

• Roquon Smith (8^th, 1^st)   LB   Georgia
• James Daniels (39^th, 2^nd)   C/G   Iowa
• Anthony Miller (51^st, 2^nd)   WR   Memphis
• Joel Iyiebuniwe (115^th, 4^th)   LB   Western Kentucky
• Bilal Nichols (145^th, 5^th)   DL   Delaware
• Kylie Fitts (181^st, 6^th)   OLB   Utah
• Javon Wims (224^th, 7^th)   WR   Georgia

Immediate Impact:  LB Roquon Smith, C/G James Daniels

Smith will line up at ILB next to Danny Trevathan and he’ll be the guy tackling everything in sight.  He brings a speed element like no one else and he would be a solid bet for Defensive Rookie of the Year.  Daniels will be an immediate starter on the inside but whether he lines up at center or guard will depend on Cody Whitehair.  Whitehair is solid at center but it’s Daniels’ natural position so one will be the center and the other the left guard.  Between Whitehair, Daniels and Kyle Long the interior of the Bears offensive line is set for the foreseeable future.

Best Value:  WR Anthony Miller

Miller has first round talent and the only knock against him is his size.  He’s under six feet tall but he’s well built and uses his strength to his advantage.  The Bears signed Allen Robinson to be their #1 WR and Taylor Gabriel to be their speed demon stretching the defense down the field.  Miller is the perfect complement to those two as he will dominate the intermediate area and he gives Mitchell Trubisky a very good trio of WRs.

Sleeper: WR Javon Wims

Wims didn’t light the world on fire but he worked his way up to Georgia from a JUCO and got better every year.  He has great size at 6’3 and he’s got good speed.  After the top three WRs Robinson, Gabriel and Miller the Bears have draft bust Kevin White and not much else.  Wims can make this squad and potentially contribute.

Overall Analysis

Love the top three picks while the other four might have a chance to make the roster.  The LB out of Western Kentucky with the eyechart last name adds depth at the position.  Nichols is big guy from a small school with good athleticism and some poor technique.  If they coach him up he could help the depth behind Hicks and Goldman at DT.  Fitts is a lottery ticket at OLB who has fought injuries and may never really contribute or he could blow up.  I do wonder why they didn’t address OT with an upgrade over RT Bobby Massie needed.  However, Smith, Daniels and Miller give this young Bears team three likely starters on day one, that’s a pretty good draft.

Detroit Lions

• Frank Ragnow (20^th, 1^st)   C   Arkansas
• Kerryon Johnson (43^rd, 2^nd)   RB   Auburn
• Tracy Walker (82^nd, 3^rd)   S   Louisiana-Lafayette
• Da’shawn Hand (114^th, 4^th)   DL   Alabama
• Tyrell Crosby (153^rd, 5^th)   OL   Oregon
• Nick Bawden (237^th, 7^th)   FB   San Diego St.

Immediate Impact:  C Frank Ragnow, RB Kerryon Johnson

If it takes Frank Ragnow longer than a day to unseat the Lions incumbent center Graham Glasgow I might faint.  The Lions didn’t take Ragnow 20^th overall for no reason.  Glasgow can try to win a job at guard but Ragnow will be in the pivot on opening day.  The Lions signed LeGarrette Blount because they had no run game last season.  Now they have Kerryon Johnson to carry the load instead.  Blount is still nice to have around because Johnson gets banged up a lot and he might need some time to adjust.

Best Value: OL Tyrell Crosby

Crosby will likely compete to start at one of the guard spots with Kenny Wiggins and Glasgow but he was actually an OT at Oregon so he’s also insurance against RT Ricky Wagner getting hurt again.  The Lions have virtually no depth behind starters LT Taylor Decker and RT Wagner so Crosby was a really nice pick up in round five especially considering he was a potential 2^nd rounder.

Sleeper:  DL Da’shawn Hand

Hand was the #1 overall recruit in 2014 but he never really lived up to that billing with the Tide.  He possesses rare athletic gifts but he’s never been the most motivated player on the field.  If a coach, like Matt Patricia, can light a fire in him he could be a monster.  For now, he’s a nice base DE who can play DT when needed and he adds depth on the defensive line.

Overall Analysis

The Lions have started to put some emphasis on the offensive line over the past several years and adding Ragnow and Crosby will be good for the offense.  It’s about damn time this team gets a real RB.  Johnson is a very talented back, there were others I liked better but anyone is an improvement for this team and will make Matt Stafford’s life a lot better.  The Lions didn’t have a ton of picks but Hand and Walker add depth on defense.  Showing their new commitment to the running game the Lions grabbed Nick Bawden to play fullback, all he did in college was lead block for the nation’s leading rushers the last two seasons.  Something tells me Matt Stafford would like this draft as much as I do.

Green Bay Packers

• Jaire Alexander (18^th, 1^st)   CB   Louisville
• Josh Jackson (45^th, 2^nd)   CB   Iowa
• Oren Burks (88^th, 3^rd)   LB   Vanderbilt
• J’mon Moore (133^rd, 4^th)   WR   Missouri
• Cole Madison (138^th, 5^th)   OL   Washington St.
• JK Scott (172^nd, 5^th)   P   Alabama
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (174^th, 5^th)   WR   South Florida
• Equanimeous St. Brown (207^th, 6^th)   WR   Notre Dame
• James Looney (232^nd, 7^th)   DE   California
• Hunter Bradley (239^th, 7^th)   LS   Mississippi St.
• Kendall Donnerson (248^th, 7^th)   OLB   Southeast Missouri

Immediate Impact:  CB Jaire Alexander, CB Josh Jackson

The Packers secondary was pretty bad last year and the only returning CB worth anything in second-year man Kevin King so the Packers doubled up on Alexander and Jackson.  Considering the amount of nickel defense teams play both of these two will seem like starters.  Alexander went first but he’s actually best suited to the nickel role while Jackson has the size and skills to start outside opposite King, this will give the Packers two big CBs on the outside.

Best Value:  CB Josh Jackson

And it’s not even close.  I have no idea how Jackson fell to 45^th overall but the Packers were lucky enough to get a guy many people had pegged in round 1 in the middle of round 2, that’s extreme value.

Sleeper: LB Oren Burks

Burks is a jack-of-all-trades kind of LB.  He could play anywhere and he brings great coverage skills to the position.  With Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez at ILB the Packers are fine but Burks adds another element and great depth.  He will initially excel on special teams but I think he’ll eventually get a lot of playing time on defense and could be a starter in few years.

Overall Analysis

The first three picks are excellent then the team went a little off the rails.  They drafted 3 WRs, Moore, Valdez-Scantling and St. Brown, but I’m not sure any of them make the team as anything more than special teams guys and the Packers aren’t exactly stacked at the position.  I’m also a bit surprised they only took one offensive lineman considering they dealt with quite a few injuries at the position last season.  Cole Madison is a decent prospect but there is a reason Bryan Bulaga turned down a restructured contract, the team doesn’t really have good depth to replace him.  It’s not often you see a team take a punter and a long snapper but when you have 11 picks you might as well take a shot.  Scott and Bradley could become the starters for the team at those positions respectively.

Minnesota Vikings

• Mike Hughes (30^th, 1^st)   CB   Central Florida
• Brian O’Neill (62^nd, 2^nd)   OT   Pittsburgh
• Jalyn Holmes (102^nd, 4^th)   DE   Ohio St.
• Tyler Conklin (157^th, 5^th)   TE   Central Florida
• Daniel Carlson (167^th, 5^th)   K   Auburn
• Colby Gossett (213^th, 6^th)   OG   Appalachian St.
• Ade Aruna (218^th, 6^th)   DE   Tulane
• Devante Downs (225^th, 7^th)   LB   California

Immediate Impact:  OT Brian O’Neill

The Vikings roster doesn’t have many holes they needed to fill in the draft.  The offensive line was one need and while O’Neill wasn’t one of the more well-known names he is likely to be a starter.  I would suggest he should be the starting RT so Mike Remmers can move inside to guard.  That would improve two positions on the line in front of new QB Kirk Cousins and returning RB Dalvin Cook.

Best Value:  O’Neill

Getting a starting OT at #62 overall is pretty solid value.

Sleeper:  DE Jalyn Holmes

Holmes was a bit of a forgotten man on Ohio St.’s ridiculously talented defensive line.  He has a lot of natural ability and while some have speculated that the Vikings took him to guard against Danielle Hunter’s free agency next year I don’t think that’s the case.  Backup DE Brian Robison is 35 and the Vikings need some depth now.  Holmes hasn’t always produced up to his talent level but there are a lot of really good DE’s on this team to learn from and Hunter was in a similar situation when he arrived and the Vikings have gotten the best out of him.  Holmes is all potential at this point, not a lot of production.  If anyone can motivate him to become more than he’s been it’s Mike Zimmer.

Overall Analysis

The Vikings first round pick CB Mike Hughes was a curious choice.  First of all, the Vikings have very good starting CBs in Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes.  It seemed possible they drafted Hughes to be the nickel corner but then after the draft they re-signed Terrance Newman.  Newman is 40 years old so he’s not a long-term solution but that makes Hughes the dime guy at best.  Given their needs on the offensive line this was an odd choice.  Also, Hughes comes with some off the field baggage that other CB prospects still available didn’t have.  I’m not a fan of this draft overall.  Even if I agreed with the positions they took with their first three picks (CB, OT, DE) I can’t agree with the prospects they took.  In round 1 they could have had Josh Jackson or Isaiah Oliver instead of Hughes, at the end of round 2 they could have had Orlando Brown or Chukwuma Okorafor over O’Neill and even in round 4 if you wanted a situational pass rusher I would have taken Dorance Armstrong not Holmes.  Their best pick may have been Daniel Carlson, the kicker out of Auburn.  He should win the job without a problem.  TE Conklin and OG Gossett may add depth at their positions if they can make the roster.  DE Aruna and LB Downs will find it harder to make the roster given the Vikings excellent defensive depth.

Even though teams have done a pretty good job of mixing up this draft with all of their trades I’m still going to project one because teams are desperate for a QB and both Miami and Buffalo need to move up to get one.  If one falls out of the top 5, as I predict in this draft, one of those teams will move up to grab him.  The Jets moved up to #3 so they could get their QB of the future and maybe the present.  That happened after the Bills made a move up to #12 thinking that might put them in a better position to get their QB of the future and probably the present too.  The Colts moved down and picked up some draft capital from the Jets and they are still in a position to get someone who can really help them; RB Saquon Barkley, DE Bradley Chubb or OG Quenton Nelson.  It helps when you don’t need a QB in a top heavy QB draft.  The Bengals moved down with the Bills trade and picked up LT Cordy Glenn which fills a gigantic need for them and allows them to use the #21 pick they got from Buffalo to fill another hole.  The latest first-round trade involves the Patriots and it isn’t them trading out of the round.  The Pats sent WR Brandin Cooks to the Rams for the #23 pick.  They traded the #32 pick in last year’s draft for Cooks, used him for a year, and now got the #23 pick for a guy they were not going to re-sign at the end of this season.  Cooks will be a free agent next year and there is no way Belichick is spending $14-16 million dollars a year on WR.  The Patriots have depth at WR as long as Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan get healthy and they just made a sneaky good signing of Jordan Matthews.  There could be more trades to come depending on what the New York Giants think about their #2 pick overall.  Do they take a QB, take DE Chubb, grab RB Barkley or sell it off to the highest bidder looking to move ahead of the Jets at #3 for a QB (I’m looking at you Buffalo and Miami)?  Here’s Mock Draft #3, I’ve been working on it for a few weeks but things are changing so quickly it’s been like nailing Jell-O to a wall (Cameron Meredith leaving the Bears and Dez Bryant getting cut are just the latest changes that affected this mock draft).

Round 1

1. Cleveland Browns (0-16): Sam Darnold QB   USC

And around and around we go with Cleveland.  We have circled back to the conventional wisdom and the Browns are basically guaranteed to take a QB #1 overall.  I’ve also come to the conclusion that Darnold may be the safest choice for them.  He’s not the boom or bust choice of Josh Allen and he doesn’t have the baggage of Baker Mayfield.  Josh Rosen is my favorite QB but his aloof, silver-spoon persona may not play in Cleveland (and Jim Mora is not helping him out by perpetuating the myth).  Darnold has a lot to learn and having a year sitting behind starter Tyrod Taylor and new backup QB Drew Stanton would do him a world of good.  He has talent but he makes too many mistakes and that’s something Taylor rarely does so having these two smart, veteran QBs to learn from would be optimal for his development.  The Browns traded for Taylor and traded away DeShone Kizer (to Green Bay), Cody Kessler (to Jacksonville) and Kevin Hogan (to Washington) clearly, they were looking for a culture change in the QB room and this pick should complete it.

2. New York Giants (3-13): Josh Rosen QB   UCLA

I think it’s going to take a pretty impressive offer for the Giants to consider dropping down to Miami’s pick (#11) or Buffalo’s pick (#12) so it comes down to choosing a QB or taking DE Bradley Chubb.  Chubb is an enticing choice but I think they pull the trigger on Eli’s eventual replacement.  This team has considered dumping Odell Beckham because of his off the field personality (and how it sometimes translates to his on the field antics).  Eli Manning has been the face of the franchise for a long time and one thing about Eli, he’s a professional.  He projects a certain level of maturity and professionalism that keeps him out of the Page Six news in New York.  Rosen comes from an affluent upbringing and I think he’ll learn Eli’s professional approach to things pretty quickly and project the face of the franchise demeanor the Giants prefer.  He’s also just a hell of a talented QB.  He can make every NFL throw and he diagnoses plays better than any QB in this draft.  Rosen’s personality will play better in New York than it will in Cleveland so this works out for everyone.

3. New York Jets (from Indianapolis): Josh Allen QB   Wyoming

QBs at 1, 2 and 3.  The Jets traded up to get a QB and I don’t know if they prefer Allen or if they just end up taking him because he’s left but the situation works out either way.  Allen needs time to work on his game and the Jets have Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater on the roster so Allen can sit back and learn.  McCown is an old warhorse at this point and he played pretty well last year so the Jets are comfortable with him starting.  Bridgewater should get some playing time too because McCown is bound to get nicked up at his age, that will also mean Allen can get some reps in practice as they save some wear and tear on McCown.  Allen looks like he was built in a QB laboratory he checks all the physical boxes you can want and his arm strength is ridiculous.  He’s biggest issue is completion percentage and typically guys don’t become more accurate when they go from college to the NFL.  He will be a project for new Jets OC Jeremy Bates but if they can fix his accuracy issues he could be special.  Allen is the quintessential boom or bust QB pick, his ceiling is being the next Elway or Favre, his floor is being the next JaMarcus Russell.

4. Cleveland Browns (from Texans): Bradley Chubb DE   North Carolina St.

I really want to give Cleveland Saquon Barkley here but Chubb is just too good of a value pick.  Barkley is a star but the Browns signed Carlos Hyde and they have Duke Johnson and with all of their other picks they have plenty of opportunities to draft one of the many other good RBs in this draft.  They have a need on defense to improve against the pass and while taking a DB like Mikah Fitzpatrick would help, generating a pass rush is just as effective.  Chubb is in a league of his own in this draft as a pass rusher and if there wasn’t such a crying need for QBs he would almost assuredly be the #1 pick.  Pairing Chubb with last year’s #1 overall selection Myles Garrett could create one hell of a duo.  Defensive backs look a whole lot better when they only have to cover for a split second before the pass rush buries the opponent’s QB.  A new franchise QB and the creation of a fearsome pass rushing duo would be a heck of a start to the 2018 draft for a Cleveland team that is desperate to finally be relevant.

5. Denver Broncos (5-11): Quenton Nelson OG   Notre Dame

This is where things could get really interesting.  The Broncos signed QB Case Keenum and I’m certain that’s because John Elway is loathe to trust a rookie with an aging team that might still be able to squeeze another playoff run out of it’s dominant defense if the offense isn’t completely inept.  However, Elway hedged his bets, he only gave Keenum a two-year deal that is really just a one-year deal with an option for the second.  Now the bigger question, is Elway gun-shy on taking a QB in the first round?  He got burned on his trade up for Paxton Lynch but if things go poorly with Keenum, remember he’s a 30-year old one-year wonder, Elway could change paths quickly.  If Elway doesn’t believe fully in the win now strategy he could draft Baker Mayfield and have him waiting in the wings if Keenum fails.  Quenton Nelson would actually be the best of both worlds, play for now and plan for the future.  Nelson would step in as a starter at OG immediately and seriously improve the offensive line.  Pairing him on the left side with last year’s first rounder Garrett Bolles would set them up there for the next five years for sure.  Nelson is as close to a sure thing in this draft as there is and he fills a gigantic need for the Broncos, both today and into the future.

6. Indianapolis Colts (from NY Jets): Saquon Barkley RB   Penn St.

The Colts decision on this pick will be made if not all of the top four QBs go in the top 5.  Luckily for the Colts the three top non-QB players in this draft; Chubb, Barkley and Nelson, all fill a major need so they simply can’t go wrong unless only two of the QBs go in the top 5.  That would be shocking but even then, new Colts GM Chris Ballard could either take DB Minkah Fitzpatrick or auction this pick off to the highest bidder for the QBs left, he may do that anyway if Mayfield is still on the board (hello Buffalo and Miami).  If not, he ends up with Saquon Barkley and the picks he got from the Jets to move down and he looks like a genius.  Barkley would be a sight for the sore shoulder of Andrew Luck.  Luck would finally be playing with a RB that can carry a huge workload and Barkley is also a fantastic security blanket out of the backfield.  The Colts still have plenty of holes to fill but Ballard picked up two second-round picks this year (and a second-rounder next year) so he can really load up some new talent around Luck and Barkley.  I would suggest some o-line help.  If Mayfield is still here I could see Ballard extracting a nice ransom from either the Bills or the Dolphins and picking up even more picks.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Minkah Fitzpatrick DB   Alabama

The Bucs came into the offseason with a huge need on the defensive line and they traded for Jason Pierre-Paul, signed Eagles castoff Vinny Curry and picked up DT Beau Allen.  Putting these three around Gerald McCoy is quite the overhaul of the starting unit.  While Pierre-Paul and Curry are both pushing 30 and are not exactly long-term solutions at DE they are serious upgrades over Robert Ayers and Noah Spence.  The Bucs also brought back CB Brent Grimes and while it’s likely only for a year he gives them a solid CB tandem.  Fitzpatrick is a swiss army knife type of defensive back and he can play CB, free safety or nickel and in Tampa’s defense he may just do all of it.  He will likely primarily play FS and in the slot but he could be Grimes’ eventual replacement.  Either way, he’s a huge upgrade to the talent at defensive back and with a much-improved pass rush the Buccaneers defense should be considerably better.

8. Miami Dolphins (from Chicago): Baker Mayfield QB   Oklahoma

If Mayfield makes it past Denver then every team between sixth and tenth is going to have to explore trading down vs. drafting a guy they like.  What kind of ransom can they get from Buffalo or Miami to move down and allow them to Mayfield.  I’m going with the Bears because they could use a little more draft capital moving forward after giving up quite a bit last year to move up one spot to take Trubisky.  Here they restock some future assets by playing Miami and Buffalo against each other, always better to have two bidders.  The Dolphins seem like they really like Mayfield and considering they haven’t really made a move to commit to Ryan Tannehill I think they make this move.  It may be costly but as the Bears proved last year, if you get your QB of the future, no one cares what you paid.  Mayfield is brash and arrogant and maybe a bit too much for some people’s taste but the Dolphins could use some swagger.  They haven’t had a great QB since Marino and if they think Mayfield is that guy he’s worth the price.  I’m not a huge Mayfield fan and I think he could be a colossal bust but I could be wrong.  His ceiling is being Russell Wilson but his floor is being Johnny Manziel.

9. San Francisco 49ers (6-10): Derwin James SS   Florida St.

The 49ers are a team on the rise because of the trades they made last year.  In the draft, they picked up picks simply by moving down one spot so the Bears could draft Mitchell Trubisky and then during the season they set up the future of their franchise by trading for Jimmy Garoppolo.  Jimmy G is the foundation and now John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan just have to build around him.  The roster still needs plenty of work, the offensive line, WR corps and secondary are still pretty weak even with some offseason additions.  I think they are likely to go with best player available and Derwin James is just that.  It’s nice that he also fills a huge need at safety.  The team let Eric Reid walk in free agency and they are toying with the idea of playing Jimmie Ward at CB.  James has great versatility and could be their SS or FS and can help out as a slot guy.  The fact that John Lynch understands the value of a good safety also works in his favor.

10. Oakland Raiders (6-10): Denzel Ward CB   Ohio St.

The Raiders need help on defense and while they signed Rashaad Melvin at CB to pair with second year man Gareon Conley they are very thin behind those two.  I’ve had them taking LBs in previous drafts and Roquan Smith and Tremaine Edmunds are certainly possible picks but Ward would fill a big need for talent and depth.  The team is really counting on Jon Gruden to get the offense back on track but they need talent upgrades on defense.  Ward isn’t the biggest CB but he’s got speed to burn and Conley and Melvin can handle bigger WRs for now.  In their division they face Phillip Rivers and now both Kansas City (with Patrick Mahomes) and Denver (with Case Keenum) have new QBs that could enhance their passing attacks.

11. Chicago Bears (from Miami): Roquan Smith LB   Georgia

The Bears have been pretty active in free agency and they filled their biggest need with WR Allen Robinson.  However, Cameron Meredith signed with the Saints so it’s completely possible the Bears look at a WR like Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton or DJ Moore.  If they decide to wait on a WR grabbing the best player available would be a good idea because that’s Roquan Smith and he fills a need on defense.  Smith is a versatile playmaking LB who could line up inside next to Danny Trevathan and give the Bears defense a nice speed element in the middle.  Smith is a tackling machine with impressive speed and would seriously upgrade the talent on the Bears the defense.

12. Buffalo Bills (from Cincinnati): Tremaine Edmunds LB   Virginia Tech

The Bills desperately want to move up to get one of the top four QBs but if they don’t they have other needs for this pick.  They also pick later in the first round so they don’t have to reach if they like another QB like Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph, although they very well could.  If they go another direction their LB corps really needs some help.  They lost starting MLB Preston Brown in free agency and they weren’t exactly stacked at the position to begin with.  Edmunds is the opposite of Roquan Smith in terms of size because he’s a gigantic LB at 6’5 240 lbs. He could take over the middle or he could fill in outside.  The Bills shouldn’t reach for a QB because they do have AJ McCarron after signing him in free agency, he may not be the long-term solution but he does backstop them a bit if they don’t get one of the guys they want.

13. Washington Redskins (7-9): Vita Vea DT   Washington

Washington has been unusually quiet in free agency with their one really big offseason move coming via trade.  They picked up QB Alex Smith from the Chiefs and let Kirk Cousins walk away.  The other notable offensive change was letting WR Terrell Pryor leave and signing Paul Richardson from Seattle.  Richardson brings more of a deep threat to complement Josh Doctson but it remains to seen if Alex Smith can take advantage of that speed.  The defense needs some new blood and one place they can really use it is up the middle.  NT Ziggy Hood is on the wrong side of 30 and he’s undersized for a NT.  Vita Vea is definitely not undersized at 6’5 344 lbs. and he’s a major talent.

14. Green Bay Packers (7-9): Josh Jackson CB   Iowa

The Packers dipped their toes in free agency far more than they have in the past by signing DE Muhammed Wilkerson and TE Jimmy Graham but the signing of CB Tramon Williams hardly addressed their need at the CB position.  Second year player Kevin King should be ready to handle one corner but the Packers have whiffed on a few other CB draft picks leaving them without much depth.  Jackson is a playmaker as evidenced by his 8 INTs last season at Iowa.  He has good size, good speed and really good athleticism.  The Packers have had success with Iowa players like Mike Daniels and Bryan Bulaga so they should feel comfortable going back to that well.  Tramon Williams is a veteran player that both Jackson and King can learn from and he’ll help ease their transition as starting CBs in the NFL.

15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Lamar Jackson QB   Louisville

The Cardinals are the third team (after Miami and Buffalo) most likely to trade up for a QB but moving up from 15 may cost too much.  Instead they are the most likely team to reach for a QB to fill their need.  They are in a division with Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff and they are looking to run out Sam Bradford backed-up by Mike Glennon.  That screams reach for a QB.  Jackson is a bit of a lottery ticket, he could be the next Cam Newton or the next Vince Young.  His athleticism is off the charts and he has a strong arm but his intermediate passing needs work and his ability to scramble makes him less likely to go through all his reads.  The Cardinals inexplicably gave Sam Bradford $20 million to be their QB next year but the odds of him getting through an entire season healthy are roughly zero.  Glennon is actually a solid backup option and if the Cardinals don’t take a rookie QB I would bet Glennon starts more games than Bradford next year.

16. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): Maurice Hurst DL   Michigan

This is the first time I’m not projecting the Ravens to take an Alabama player.  They certainly could take WR Calvin Ridley, LB Rashaan Evans or DT Da’Ron Payne but I’m going with Hurst.  He was out of my first round in the last mock draft because of his medical issue at the combine but his irregular heartbeat has apparently checked out fine so he’s back in the mix.  Hurst could be a DT or a DE depending on the defensive front he ends up in and in Baltimore he can play DE and he’ll be fantastic.  Hurst is a beast up front and is tough to handle for any offensive lineman.  The Ravens need some youth on defense and Hurst is a talent.

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7): Connor Williams OT   Texas

The Chargers have a glaring need on defense at LB so they could conceivably draft Leighton Vander Esch but another need for them is OT.  Russell Okung was solid last year at LT but he’s 30 and his play could drop off at any moment.  RT Joe Barksdale is also 30 but he’s already not very good.  The Chargers would have their choice of OTs since there are a number of them bunched together and beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  I like Williams’ upside the best, if he hadn’t missed most of last season at Texas with an injury he might be slated to go much higher in this draft.  He is an immediate upgrade over Barksdale and an eventual replacement for Okung.  After adding C Mike Pouncey in free agency and getting Forrest Lamp back from injury at OG the Chargers could be on their way to having a pretty solid offensive line for the foreseeable future.

18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Jaire Alexander CB   Louisville

I really do want to give the Seahawks an offensive lineman but I’m not sure they will see OTs Mike McGlinchey, Orlando Brown, Kolton Miller or Chukwuma Okorafor as an upgrade at this point.  The release of Richard Sherman and the loss of DeShawn Shead leaves them pretty thin at CB.  Alexander has quietly been climbing the draft boards since his stellar workout at the combine.  The Seahawks are a team in transition (the new NFL word for rebuilding) and they need talent in a lot of different places.  They don’t have a 2^nd or 3^rd round draft pick so they need to get help here.  Alexander would be an immediate starter opposite Shaquill Griffin.  The Seahawks aren’t sure if SS Kam Chancellor or DE Cliff Avril will be able to resume their careers after major injuries.  They have discussed trading FS Earl Thomas and as good as Thomas is they may be better off if they can get some solid draft choices in return.  This defense needs playmakers and Alexander might be their best chance at getting one.

19. Dallas Cowboys (9-7): Calvin Ridley WR   Alabama

I wasn’t sure the Cowboys would take a WR then they cut Dez Bryant and that made this pick much easier.  It was clear when free agency opened that Dallas was looking to get a new #1 WR as they pursued Sammy Watkins pretty hard before he signed with Kansas City.  When they struck out in free agency it looked like they might hold on to Bryant for one more year but then they decided to cut him anyway.  This means they need a new top WR.  They signed Allen Hurns after he was let go by Jacksonville but he’s a #2 guy at best.  Ridley is a bit thin and needs to add to his frame to hold up long-term but he’s a talented WR.  One of the complaints about Bryant was his lack of precision on his routes and that bothered Dak Prescott, well he won’t have that issue with Ridley.  Ridley doesn’t wow you with any one physical trait but he’s a good route runner and uses that advantage to create separation, another thing Bryant was not great at doing.  The Cowboys have other holes at LB and CB especially but the giant Dez shaped hole in their offense is pretty glaring.

20. Detroit Lions (9-7): Marcus Davenport DE   UT-San Antonio

The Lions franchised DE Ezekiel Ansah meaning he’s in the fold for at least one more year but that might be it.  Even if he sticks around long-term the Lions need some reinforcements at the position and Davenport is a guy that could add a nice pass rushing element right away while he works his way into an eventual starting position.  Anthony Zettel holds his own opposite Ansah but he’s just average.  The Lions do have a huge need at TE after jettisoning Eric Ebron.  TE Dallas Goedert is a small school prospect out of South Dakota St. but he would be a nice weapon for Matt Stafford.  They also signed the mother of all stopgap RBs in LeGarrette Blount and he will give them a good every down back even if it’s just for the year.  They would be wise to use a later round pick on one of the many good RBs in this draft, assuming they don’t want to go with Derrius Guice here.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo): Isaiah Wynn OG   Georgia

The Bengals made a nice move to pick up Cordy Glenn to fill their LT hole but it required them moving down to this spot.  They lost C Russell Bodine in free agency and they still need some help on the interior of their line.  Wynn played LT at Georgia but he’s expected to move inside in the NFL and he has versatility, while he’s likely to be a OG I wouldn’t be surprised if someone took him and tried him at C.  It isn’t an unheard-of transition, the Bears did it with Cody Whitehair a few years ago.  The Bengals also need help at LB but there is better value at o-line.

22. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City): Mason Rudolph QB   Oklahoma St.

If the Bills don’t pull off a trade to move up to get one of the top 4 QBs they will be looking pretty hard to get one here.  They may have to move up just to pull this off as QBs are notoriously over drafted.  Rudolph is seen as a step below the top four and fighting Lamar Jackson to be the next one off the board.  Rudolph isn’t the athlete Jackson is but he’s a very good deep ball thrower.  His overall arm strength would be useful in the Buffalo weather and he would have some time to adjust to a pro-style offense since they do have AJ McCarron to hold down the fort until Rudolph is ready.  He’s a better long-term option than Nathan Peterman.

23. New England Patriots (from LA Rams): Isaiah Oliver CB   Colorado

New England picked up this pick from the Rams in exchange for WR Brandin Cooks.  The Patriots have gone about their offseason exactly how the have for many years.  In both free agency and through trades Belichick has added veterans like DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Danny Shelton, CB Jason McCourty and WR Jordan Matthews.  The team grabbed their second McCourty brother, Jason, to fill in for the departed Malcolm Butler.  Hopefully Belichick watched the Super Bowl close enough to know he needs to get a third CB to replace Eric Rowe who was terrible against the Eagles.  Oliver would bring nice size and coverage ability and allow them to not have to count completely on Jason McCourty to be a starter opposite Stephon Gilmore.  The team desperately needs a LT too but there is much more depth left at that position with Kolton Miller, Orlando Brown, Chukwuma Okorafor and Mike McGlinchey still on the board.  The Patriots still have the 31^st pick to address the OT position.

24. Carolina Panthers (11-5): James Daniels C/G   Iowa

The Panthers lost OG Andrew Norwell and their OC Ryan Kalil says he’s retiring after the 2018 season.  They have needs at WR, DE and CB but protecting QB Cam Newton should be priority #1.  Daniels is still just 20 years old and has some physical maturing to do but he would be the perfect choice to come in this season and start at OG in place of Norwell.  Playing next to Kalil for a year would give him a great learning environment and then he can slide over and take over for Kalil in 2019.  The Panthers have to protect Cam Newton and Daniels is a long-term investment towards that end.  The Panthers could grab WR Cameron Sutton or a CB like Mike Hughes.  Daniels is better value.

25. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Leighton Vander Esch LB   Boise St.

The Titans signed some significant free agents, CB Malcolm Butler and RB Dion Lewis, but they lost one significant player off their defense, LB Avery Williamson.  Williamson wasn’t a household name but he was a very good ILB in their 3-4 defense and they don’t have great options on the roster to replace him.  Vander Esch is still pretty raw considering he was only a one-year starter at Boise St. but he’s a talented athlete who could step in to Williamson’s spot from day one.  His development is key because he’s still a moldable piece who could be a very good coverage LB given his athleticism, a good run stuffer given his size and he can blitz when needed.

26. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): Da’Ron Payne DT   Alabama

Most of the Falcons roster returns intact as they didn’t lose a lot in free agency and they didn’t have a lot of cap room to add significant pieces.  This team has largely been built through the draft and they continue that here.  Their one big addition last season was DT Dontari Poe on a one-year deal and he has now moved on.  They need to replace his size in the middle next to Grady Jarrett.  Having a guy in the middle to eat up blockers makes their speedy LB corps that much more effective.  Payne is a man amongst boys at times and he’s an extremely talented DT who would fit quite nicely next to Jarrett.  Payne is multi-talented and can do a lot of things and might actually bring more versatility than Poe.  He’s not as big but he’s damn effective against the run and the pass.

27. New Orleans Saints (11-5): Dallas Goedert TE   South Dakota St.

The Saints have the luxury of not having any major needs, they need depth on the offensive line, they could always use a playmaker on the defensive line and getting Michael Thomas a better running mate at WR wouldn’t hurt.  The have guys at TE but they don’t have any game breakers.  Goedert is a small school prospect out of South Dakota St. but he profiles as a guy that can make some plays down the field and up the seam.  I suppose if a QB they really like falls here they could try to grab Drew Brees’ heir apparent but that seems unlikely to happen.  Brees would appreciate a guy like Goedert for his last few years in the league.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3): Rashaan Evans LB   Alabama

Pittsburgh has to deal with the reality that Ryan Shazier may never play football again.  He was a major piece of their defense at ILB and filling that spot is important.  Evans was a captain at Alabama so he can bring leadership at a critical position in the Steelers defense.  Shazier relied pretty heavily on his speed and athleticism and while Evans isn’t as fast he is technically sound and he won’t be caught out of position.  He’s the best LB left on the board and he fills a major need.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6): Courtland Sutton WR   SMU

The Jaguars lost Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in this offseason and while they signed Donte Moncrief and re-signed Marqise Lee they are still lacking a top WR.  They like youngsters Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole but their passing game needs a #1 type WR.  The team is clearly looking to be even more run oriented with the addition of OG Andrew Norwell but Sutton would add a big-bodied WR who would give Blake Bortles a nice target, especially in the red zone and on 3^rd down.  This pick could also be a TE as they finally let go of stalwart TE Mercedes Lewis.  Free agent TE addition Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a talented player but he’s never been the picture of consistency.

30. Minnesota Vikings (13-3): Mike McGlinchey OT   Notre Dame

This pick is likely to come down to either an OT like McGlinchey or an OG like Will Hernandez.  The Vikings team is poised to compete for the Super Bowl with QB Kirk Cousins running the show but an offensive line breakdown could hinder their chances.  They invested in OT Riley Reiff and T/G Mike Remmers in free agency last year and drafted C Pat Elflein so that was three solid additions.  They would probably be best served by taking McGlinchey to be their RT and sliding Remmers inside to OG which would upgrade two positions.  McGlinchey is solid but not spectacular but that makes him a better bet than Remmers at RT.  Remmers would upgrade the interior of the line.  If the Vikings like Will Hernandez better they can take him, plug him in at OG and leave Remmers at RT.  No matter what I find it hard to believe this team won’t address OL in the first round unless there is some top-notch talent that slips to this spot.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Kolton Miller OT   UCLA

It’s hard to believe that the Patriots would go into the season with LaAdrian Waddle protecting 41-year old Tom Brady’s blindside.  With the loss of OTs Nate Solder and Cameron Fleming they Pats are pretty thin at the position.  Miller is a guy that looks better getting off the bus than he sometimes does on the field because he can be inconsistent but he possesses all of the tools to be a starting LT.  He’s similar in size and build to the departed Solder at 6’8 310 lbs.  With the coaching of Dante Scarnecchia Miller could achieve his full potential, if not he’s still a better option than Waddle.

32. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): Derrius Guice RB   LSU

The rich get richer.  The Super Bowl Champions don’t have a lot of needs and they are fairly deep at critical positions.  They could grab an OT like Orlando Brown here with Jason Peters aging but they won the Super Bowl without him as their backup LT Vaitai (I’m not going to attempt to spell his first name, even with it right in front of me on Google I’ll get it wrong) did just fine.  The team has Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement but they lost LeGarrette Blount and Darren Sproles is 34 years old and unsigned.  Ajayi will be looking for a contract extension and he has questionable knees.  Guice is a serious talent and if Saquon Barkley wasn’t overshadowing every RB in this draft Guice would be the guy everyone is talking about.  The Eagles will have to watch the salary cap issues going forward and replacing Ajayi instead of paying him would be a smart move.

Some guys that certainly could go in Round 1 but I just couldn’t find a spot for them.

OT Orlando Brown (Oklahoma) – The game tape says 1^st rounder, the workouts say 4^th rounder.  It’s possible someone completely overlooks Brown’s disastrous combine workout but he’s too closely bunched up at OT with the other guys like Williams, McGlinchey, Miller, Chukwuma Okorafor and Tyrell Crosby.  When it’s that close the workouts can be a tie-breaker.

WR DJ Moore (Maryland) – He has been getting some mention as a 1^st rounder in other mock drafts and it’s not surprising teams see his physical talents and really like him.  He played at Maryland where the QB position was abysmal so his stats were less than impressive.  He has good size, great speed and in an underwhelming WR group he could sneak in to the 1^st round.

DL Taven Bryan (Florida) – Bryan should be a 1^st round pick and he probably will be I just couldn’t find a place for him specifically.  He’s a versatile defensive lineman that would be best as a DE in a 3-4 defense.  There are quite a few teams that play that defense so he’ll find his way into the 1^st round or he’ll be a great value in the 2^nd.

C Frank Ragnow (Arkansas), C Billy Price (Ohio St.), OG Will Hernandez (UTEP) and OG Braden Smith (Auburn) – This is a very good year for interior offensive linemen.  Quenton Nelson, Isaiah Wynn and James Daniels all go in my first round but any of these four could wind up there too.  The depth and talent at C/G this year is incredible.  There is talent and depth at OT too but not the high-end talent and no doubt starters like there is on the interior.  All seven of these guys are going to end up day one starters for whichever team drafts them.

Round 2- Because I just can’t help myself

33. Cleveland: Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma

He falls out of my round one but barely.  The Browns lost future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas and they need someone to protect their new QB’s blindside. Brown isn’t pretty but he gets the job done.

34. New York Giants: Frank Ragnow C   Arkansas

The Giants spent big on LT Nate Solder and his arrival kicks Ereck Flowers to RT where they hope he won’t be such a liability.  However, they let C Weston Richburg leave and the interior of their line is suspect.  Ragnow isn’t a well-known prospect but he’s a very good center and their old QB and their new QB would appreciate him.

35. Cleveland (from Houston): Ronald Jones II RB USC

Remember when I said the Browns had lots of extra picks to address RB, this is one.  Jones is a very good all-around back and while they have Carlos Hyde it’s hard to count on him staying healthy.  Jones is the future at the position and he might take the job from Hyde even if Hyde does stay healthy.

36. Indianapolis: DJ Moore WR   Maryland

The Colts have TY Hilton and that’s about it at WR.  Adding Saquon Barkley in the round 1 is huge but if there are 9 or 10 defenders in the box he isn’t going anywhere.  Moore and Hilton can stretch the field, now they just have to hope Andrew Luck’s shoulder isn’t swiss cheese.

37. Indianapolis (from NY Jets): Will Hernandez OG   UTEP

Now they use another pick from the Jets to get Barkley someone to run behind.  Hernandez is a beast and the Colts need plenty of help up front.  Don’t worry they still have another pick later in this round for the defense.

38. Tampa Bay: Sony Michel RB   Georgia

The Bucs lost Doug Martin this offseason and they need someone to take the pressure off of Jameis Winston.  Michel was part of a duo at Georgia with Nick Chubb and he was highly effective.  It saved some wear on him so he should be good to go.

39. Chicago: Josh Sweat OLB   Florida St.

Sweat was a major recruit coming out of high school but the Seminoles played him out of position as a DE in a 3-4.  He’ll move to a rush OLB for Chicago and line up opposite Leonard Floyd.  Sweat is a superior athlete and he should generate a pass rush and play the run well and make Floyd better in the process.

40. Denver: James Washington WR   Oklahoma St.

The Broncos have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at WR and not much else.  Those two also have major cap numbers coming up and Denver needs to plan for the future.  Washington gives them a third WR for now and a replacement deep threat moving forward.

41. Oakland: Chukwuma Okorafor OT   Western Michigan

Donald Penn is about 115 in NFL years and the Raiders don’t have any depth at OT.  Okorafor could end up being the best OT in this draft and even if Penn is good to go he might lose his job to this kid.

42. Miami: Taven Bryan DT   Florida

There is a giant Ndamukong Suh sized hole in the Dolphins defensive front and Bryan is just the guy to fill it.  He isn’t the same type of player by Bryan is a versatile guy who will make the rest of the d-line around him better.

43. New England (from San Francisco): Harold Landry DE/OLB   Boston College

Landry is the type of hybrid defender Bill Belichick loves.  He’s a pass rusher and he could play some OLB for the Pats.  The team is looking to generate more pass rush and Landry could do that and add depth at LB.

44. Washington: Mike Hughes CB   Central Florida

The Redskins lost Kendall Fuller in a trade and Bashaud Breeland in free agency.  Josh Norman is 30 and overpaid and they signed Orlando Scandrick from Dallas who is 31 and coming off a major injury.  To say they need help at CB is an understatement.  Hughes is a young prospect with a high upside.

45. Green Bay: Martinas Rankin OL   Mississippi St.

The Packers need help on the offensive line and Rankin is a versatile player. He played OT at Miss. St. but he could play G or C in the NFL.  He could end up a starter at G for the Packers and be an injury fill-in at OT when they need him.

46. Cincinnati: Dorian Daniel LB   Clemson

Daniel is a speedy, undersized LB that would fit right in with the Bengals needs on defense.  They signed Preston Brown to play MLB but they need speed at OLB and someone they can count on (that means Vontaze Burfict doesn’t count).

47. Arizona: Tyrell Crosby OT   Oregon

The Cardinals traded Jared Veldheer to the Broncos and signed Andre Smith which is not really a solution at RT.  Crosby could really help stabilize the offensive line, assuming DJ Humphries gets healthy at LT and plays well.

48. Los Angeles Chargers: Harrison Phillips DT   Stanford

Brandon Mebane is 33 and Corey Liuget is suspended for the first four games of the season.  A little help at DT wouldn’t be out of line.  The Chargers run defense wasn’t great even with Mebane and Liuget so Phillips is needed either way.

49. Indianapolis (from NY Jets): Ogbonnia Okoronkwo DE   Oklahoma

Okoronkwo is one of the better pass rushers in this draft and while he’s undersized he would add talent to a Colts defense that needs all the help it can get.

50. Dallas: Carlton Davis CB   Auburn

The Cowboys need help at all levels of their defense and Davis fills a need for a larger CB.  Their new defensive backs coach Kris Richard was in Seattle so he likes his CBs with some size.  Davis is a solid addition.

51. Detroit: Nick Chubb RB   Georgia

Chubb is a power back and he’ll be able to handle a heavy workload for the Lions.  He may make the LeGarrette Blount signing moot before it even has a chance.  Chubb would be the best RB on the Lions since that Barry Sanders dude.

52. Baltimore: Billy Price C   Ohio St.

The Ravens have needs at WR and TE but they lost their starting C in free agency.  The offensive line is essential in keeping Joe Flacco upright and Alex Collins rolling along.  Price only falls this far because he hasn’t been able to work out due to a torn pectoral muscle.  He should be fine by training camp and he’ll slide right in as a starting C.

53. Buffalo: Jamarco Jones OT   Ohio St.

The Bills traded away Cordy Glenn and they weren’t exactly stacked at OT to begin with.  They miss out on the top guys but Jones is a solid prospect and is better than what they have on the roster now.

54. Kansas City: Justin Reid FS   Stanford

The Chiefs finally make a pick after they traded their first rounder last year to move up for Patrick Mahomes.  They solved a few of their holes through free agency and trades; LB Anthony Hitchens, WR Sammy Watkins, CB Kendall Fuller and CB David Amerson were all added.  They still need some depth at OL, DL and LB but FS is a definite need.  Reid is a solid prospect and while he isn’t in the same class as Derwin James or Minkah Fitzpatrick he would make a nice partner for Eric Berry.

55. Carolina: Arden Key DE   LSU

The Panthers can’t count on Julius Peppers to play forever and Mario Addison is 30.  Key was a disappointment this year and he’s a bit undersized weight-wise but he could be a nice pass rush specialist for a year before being counted on full time.

56. Buffalo (from Los Angeles): Christian Kirk WR   Texas A&M

The Bills have Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones as their big outside WR but whether it’s AJ McCarron or Mason Rudolph or someone else at QB they could use a good slot receiver as a security blanket.  Kirk is a great complement inside to Benjamin and Jones outside.

57. Tennessee: Braden Smith OG   Auburn

Tennessee’s offensive line is pretty solid but could use some reinforcements at OG.  Smith is a pretty good prospect and could end up as a starter by beating out Quinton Span or Josh Kline.

58. Atlanta: Mike Gesicki TE   Penn St.

The Falcons haven’t had a real threat at TE since Tony Gonzalez retired.  Gesicki is a supreme athlete and would add a dimension to the offense they are currently lacking.  If they are going to give Matt Ryan big money they might as well get him a major weapon.

59. San Francisco (from New Orleans): Marcell Ateman WR   Oklahoma St.

The 49ers have their QB of the future now they need to get him some weapons.  Jimmy G relied on Marquise Goodwin last year so it’s time to get him a big-bodied WR who will make life a little easier.  Ateman is 6’4 220 lbs. so he qualifies.  Garoppolo’s only real struggle last year was red zone efficiency, Ateman should help.

60. Pittsburgh: Jeff Holland OLB   Auburn

The Steelers don’t have a ton of needs and if they fill the ILB spot in round 1 they have no glaring ones.  Bud Dupree hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been great and the Steelers may not look to extend him with his rookie contract coming up.  Holland should be a good rush LB who can generate more pass rush opposite TJ Watt.

61. Jacksonville: Malik Jefferson LB   Texas

Paul Posluszny retired which leaves a hole at MLB in the Jaguars otherwise exceptional defense.  They play a lot of sub-packages where only Myles Jack and Telvin Smith are on the field so it should be easy for them to hide Jefferson’s shortcomings.  Jefferson is a fantastic athlete with great sideline-to-sideline speed and would be a solid addition.

62. Minnesota: Donte Jackson CB   LSU

Assuming the Vikings aren’t bringing Terrance Newman back again, he’ll be 40 years old, they could use a new nickel corner.  Jackson is small and fast and would fill in nicely.  They could use a TE too but there is better depth there and they can get one later.

63. New England: Mark Andrews TE   Oklahoma

Whether or not Rob Gronkowski returns the Patriots need to prepare for life without him because he is probably not going to be around long even if he does return.  Andrews is a solid TE prospect and while no one is Gronk, Andrews would still be a weapon.

64. Cleveland (from Philadelphia): Tarvarus McFadden CB   Florida St.

The Browns are pretty weak at CB with TJ Carrie and EJ Gaines set to start without much depth behind them.  McFadden is a bigger CB who certainly looks the part but he is a bit inconsistent.  If the coaching staff can get him to play to his potential he’s a steal at this spot in the draft.

This NFL draft is going to be highly impacted by the free agent QB market.  Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum and AJ McCarron are all likely to sign with teams as starting QBs and depending on where they end up it will affect who drafts a QB early.  Cleveland, the NY Giants and Jets, and Denver all pick in the top six and Arizona sits at 15 for now but could make a move up to get a guy if they fail to sign a veteran.  For now, I’m making predictions that Cousins goes to Minnesota, Keenum signs in Denver and AJ McCarron ends up in Arizona.  That leaves Cleveland and the New York Jets looking for immediate starters in the draft and a few other teams possibly looking for their future starter (NY Giants, Baltimore, LA Chargers, Pittsburgh) or looking to replace guys sooner rather than later (Buffalo, Miami).  There are a few other possible starting QBs on the free agent market like Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater but both are injury risks and if Buffalo and Miami decide to move on Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Tannehill would be available also.  I don’t think the Eagles are really going to entertain trading Nick Foles unless someone blows them away with an offer because Carson Wentz may not be ready to start the season due to his late season knee injury.  Conventional wisdom says the Browns are going to grab a QB #1 overall but I’m not convinced.  If they like more than one QB out of Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield and Allen they could wait until their #4 pick and take Saquon Barkley #1 overall instead.  One of the more surprising developments in the pre-draft process has been the disappointing showing by the offensive tackle group.  Mike McGlinchey, Connor Williams and Chukwuma Okorafor have all shown some pretty big holes in their game and Orlando Brown had a disturbingly poor performance at the combine.  The one player that has helped himself is UCLA’s Kolten Miller who had an impressive athletic performance in Indianapolis but he was probably the least consistent of the top OT during the season.

1. Cleveland Browns (0-16): Saquon Barkley RB   Penn St.

Conventional wisdom says take a QB and never take a RB #1 overall, the last one to go #1 overall was Ki-Jana Carter to the Bengals and that didn’t work out well.  The Browns need a transformational talent and I’m not convinced any of the top four QBs are that but I am convinced Barkley can be.  He is a true 3-down back that can dominate in so many ways.  He’s big, fast, physical and he can catch, block and run as well as anyone.  His combine performance was legendary and for once a guy that dominated the combine has the game tape to back it up.  The Browns went 0-16 and while they have passed on franchise passers Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson in the last two drafts they should pass here and wait until the fourth pick to grab a QB they like.  Whichever one they pick will be better served having Barkley as a backfield teammate for the next five years and I don’t see Barkley getting to #4 overall.

2. New York Giants (3-13): Sam Darnold QB   USC

I think GM Dave Gettleman will be a little disappointed if Barkley goes #1 because I think he would love to grab him here to help Eli Manning for the next year or two.  Since I have Barkley going first the Giants will grab Darnold to be Manning’s eventual replacement.  This would be the best-case scenario for Darnold because he needs some time to mature and some time to learn and learning from Manning would help him tremendously.  Darnold has some great physical tools but he makes some really poor decisions with the ball and sitting in a QB meeting room with Eli Manning and being coached by Pat Shurmur would give the chance to not get thrown to the wolves and end up a mess.

3. Indianapolis Colts (4-12): Bradley Chubb DE   NC State

The Colts are going back to a 4-3 defensive alignment after playing in a 3-4 under Chuck Pagano.  They need a pass rushing DE because they really don’t have one.  Luckily for the Colts the best pass rusher in this draft happens to still be available here.  Chubb is a top-notch DE with a good first step and all-around skills that make him a great building block for their defense.  The Colts are one of the few teams at the top of the draft not looking for a QB because they are anticipating the return of Andrew Luck.  They could certainly use some other positions like offensive line and wide receiver but nobody from those positions rates this high.  If the Colts don’t love Chubb, and I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t, they could grab Minkah Fitzpatrick for the secondary.  If by some chance Saquon Barkley doesn’t go in the top two he would also be a major upgrade for them and would take a load off of Luck.

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston 4-12): Josh Allen QB   Wyoming

If the Browns make the decision to grab Barkley first it’s because they are confident they will still get a QB they like at #4 and they aren’t worried if one or two of them go off the board before they pick again.  I think they will rate the top 4 guys pretty evenly and just see who’s left once they pick here.  To me this becomes a choice between Allen or Mayfield for them with Darnold off the board.  Rosen is my favorite QB prospect but I don’t think the Browns are in love with him.  In this case Hue Jackson and GM John Dorsey go with the potential of Allen over the moxie of Mayfield.  Allen is a freak with a ridiculously strong arm but he lacks accuracy and polish.  They can minimize some of his shortcomings by relying on Barkley to carry the offensive load while Hue Jackson and new offensive coordinator Todd Haley work to refine Allen’s game.  Allen also has the type of arm that could help unleash former 1^st round pick Corey Coleman’s deep speed and maybe even Josh Gordon if he sticks around and stays eligible to play.  My biggest concern about Allen is that the two guys I’ve heard him compared to because of his incredible arm strength are JaMarcus Russell and Kyle Boller, that isn’t a good thing.

5. Denver Broncos (5-11): Quenton Nelson OG   Notre Dame

If the Broncos strike out on signing Cousins I don’t think John Elway will immediately think he has to go to the draft to find a new starter.  I think Elway got burned on his last 1^st round QB and he’ll grab a veteran like Case Keenum.  Maybe it’s not Keenum, maybe it’s Sam Bradford or Tyrod Taylor but he isn’t drafting a QB at 5, I just can’t see it.  Nelson immediately becomes the best guard on the team and he may actually be the best right tackle too.  They would most likely play him at left guard and his presence could be a huge boost to second year LT Garrett Bolles.  Bolles was fine for a rookie last season but he’s a bit inconsistent and could use a guy like Nelson next to him.  Nelson is one of the best offensive line prospects in the last decade and he could be a Pro Bowl player very early in his career.  He absolutely dominates at the point of attack and he’s a devastating run blocker going all the way down the field.

6. New York Jets (5-11): Josh Rosen QB   UCLA

If the Jets strike out on the Cousins sweepstakes I think they pass on the rest of the free agent market and focus on the draft.  Being in New York means a lot of media attention and pressure and that won’t bother Rosen one bit.  Rosen gets a bit of a bad rap because he’s from an affluent family and people think he’s a bit spoiled and entitled.  That’s crap, the kid can flat out play.  He’s big and has elite arm talent and the only thing worth questioning is his durability.  He’s had a couple of concussions and a shoulder injury sidelined him for a while two years ago.  I think he’s the most talented QB in this draft and I would hate to see him go to the Jets but he would be a really good face of the franchise for them.  They will need to get him some talent around him but they have a ton of cap space and they should be more than willing to spend it on their offense.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Minkah Fitzpatrick DB   Alabama

The Buccaneers need a pass rusher as bad as anyone but unless Marcus Davenport proves to be a top seven talent (not completely out of the realm of possibility but not yet) there just isn’t one to take here.  Luckily for the Bucs their defense needs more than one thing and defensive back is priority 1B for this team.  CB Brent Grimes is a free agent and the Bucs safeties are replaceable so Fitzpatrick is the perfect fit.  He can be a CB or a safety and he could excel at either spot.  He could be the bigger outside CB they pair with the smaller Vernon Hargreaves or he could play safety and seriously upgrade the back end of the defense.  An excellent player who can cover up a couple of different deficiencies on the Bucs defense would be a welcomed addition.

8. Chicago Bears (5-11): Calvin Ridley WR   Alabama

The Bears finally found a QB in Mitchell Trubisky but his growth might be stunted if they don’t get him some weapons to use.  Cameron Meredith should be able to return healthy this season but counting on former first round pick Kevin White to ever get healthy seems like a foolish move.  Ridley has good speed and while he doesn’t profile as the most explosive athlete he is a natural WR.  He understands the position and how to get open, he’s a natural ball catcher who will make things easier for Trubisky and he has #1 WR potential.  The Bears are looking at the free agent and trade markets for a slot receiver and putting Ridley and Meredith outside with a newly signed slot receiver would be a major upgrade over what Trubisky was working with last season.

9. Buffalo Bills (TRADE from San Francisco 6-10): Baker Mayfield QB   Oklahoma

I normally don’t project trades in my mock drafts but I have to here because this makes too much sense.  Mayfield is going to go in the top 10 and I think Buffalo will see the need to move up ahead of Miami to get a QB.  The Dolphins reportedly like Mayfield a lot.  The Bills have the 21^st and 22^nd overall picks due to their trade with Kansas City last year and San Francisco needs quantity for their roster rebuild.  The Bills really need to move on from Tyrod Taylor as they have shown they have no real confidence in him and Nathan Peterman is not the answer.  Mayfield is brash and cocky and may rub some people the wrong way but he has some magic to him.  He’s not affected by his lack of ideal height and he has a stronger arm than he’s given credit for and I think he has the right game for playing in Buffalo.  The Bills need a face of the franchise and Mayfield would certainly fill that role just fine.

10. Oakland Raiders (6-10): Tremaine Edmunds LB   Virginia Tech

The Raiders fell off a cliff this season which is why Jack Del Rio is gone and Jon Gruden is back as the head coach.  The offensive line could use some help at tackle since Donald Penn is aging and Marshall Newhouse really isn’t any good but the offensive tackle group has been pretty underwhelming in the pre-draft process.  The defense needs attention too especially at CB and LB.  It’s possible the Raiders grab Josh Jackson or Denzel Ward but they may give Bruce Irvin the boot and that will further deplete their LB corps.  Edmunds is a big, physical athlete that can do a lot of things and would be a nice toy for new defensive coordinator Paul Guenther to play with.  He could literally line up at any of the three LB spots and he can bring some pressure off the edge once in a while and that would help out Khalil Mack.  Edmunds brings a lot of skills to today’s game and Raider Nation will love him.

11. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Josh Jackson CB   Iowa

The Dolphins are making a major trade with the Rams to bring in DE Robert Quinn and pairing him with Cameron Wake is going to create quite the pass rush.  They could really use some help in the secondary to take advantage of that pressure and Jackson is nothing if not an opportunistic CB.  Pairing him with Xavien Howard would make a really good young pair of CBs going forward for the Dolphins.  Jackson is a superior athlete with playmaking ability and he’s the best CB in this draft. People say he looked stiff in the combine drills, they said that about Marcus Peters once too. The only other need the Dolphins might fulfill here is their need at LB.  They could grab Roquan Smith since they could really use an infusion of talent at that position too.  They could reach for an OG like Isaiah Wynn or Will Hernandez but this is pretty high to grab one of those two guys.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9): Roquan Smith LB   Georgia

The Bengals have been piecing their LB corps together for a number of years with guys like Kevin Minter and it’s time they find some new blood.  Smith would add a speed element they don’t currently have and his tenacity is infectious.  He runs all over and hits everything that moves and the Bengals defense could really use a good leader on defense as many of their guys are aging.  Smith brings a sideline-to-sideline aggressiveness the team has been looking for.

13. Washington Redskins (7-9): Da’Ron Payne DT   Alabama

Washington is about to undergo a major offensive transformation as they move on from Kirk Cousins and usher in the Alex Smith era.  They have a solid offensive line if Trent Williams can get healthy and they have some weapons on offense like Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder but the defense is a little punchless.  Getting Jonathan Allen healthy would help on the front line but they still need more and his former Alabama teammate Da’Ron Payne would be a nice addition to their three-man front.  Payne can play the NT position or the end position opposite Allen.  A big body like Payne would also help free up their LBs to make some plays.  Payne showed some serious athleticism for a man his size at the combine and he’s not just a space-eating DT, he’ll collapse the pocket with his agility.

14. Green Bay Packers (7-9): Denzel Ward CB   Ohio St.

The Packers drafted Kevin King last year and he has potential but they still need some help at CB.  Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins are not exactly lighting it up and both are coming off injuries.  King is a tall, lanky CB so Ward’s lack of height wouldn’t be a problem since King can cover the taller WRs the team faces.  Ward plays bigger than his size and he’s a tough, physical CB who showed elite speed at the combine.  His presence on the outside would also mean Randall could be used as a slot corner and nickelback which is probably where he should be used.  With the emergence of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams I think it’s possible Ty Montgomery is used as a receiver again which would make drafting a WR less of a priority.

15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Derwin James S   Florida St.

If the Cardinals address their QB need with a guy like AJ McCarron it will open up their possibilities in the draft to take the best player they can find.  The team has made a habit of taking talented safeties and finding a place for them.  They drafted Deone Buchanan a few years ago and then turned him into an inside LB, Tyrann Mathieu is a versatile FS that can play nickelback and last year they drafted Budda Baker who became their starting SS.  Mathieu may not be back because the Cardinals may decide not to pay top dollar for a guy with some injury issues.  Derwin James is an exceptionally talented safety that can play all over the defense and he probably shouldn’t even be available this late in the first round.  If he goes in the top 10 it wouldn’t be surprising at all.  If any team can find a way to use the multitalented James it’s the Cardinals.

16. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): Courtland Sutton WR   SMU

The Ravens have to get some help at WR and while their last 1^st round WR pick, Breshad Perriman, hasn’t worked out they really need to take a shot here.  Sutton is a big, physical WR with a wide catch radius which could help Joe Flacco out quite a bit.  Mike Wallace is a free agent and Jeremy Maclin is likely a cap casualty and drafting Sutton wouldn’t preclude them from bringing one of those veterans back because he would actually complement their skillset since they are smaller, deep ball WRs.  They will give Perriman one last chance to make good on his potential but they can’t count on him if they want their offense to be worthwhile.

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7): Vita Vea DT   Washington

Both DTs Brandon Mebane and Corey Liuget could be cap casualties this offseason and the Chargers really need someone to hold down the middle to free up Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram off the edges.  The Chargers LB corps leaves a lot to be desired so they too need someone to hold up in the middle of the front line and no one is better suited for that the Vea.  He’s a mammoth DT at 6’5 344 lbs. and he’s surprisingly athletic.  It may not be the sexiest pick but he’ll make a major impact on the defense overall.

18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Connor Williams OT   Texas

In this version of the mock draft the Seahawks have their pick of any of the OTs available and that would be welcome news for Russell Wilson.  Seattle traded for Duane Brown last year and he should hold down the LT spot for a year or two so Williams could come in and play RT initially and then eventually replace Brown at LT.  Unless the Seahawks cut or trade a lot of veterans and spend that savings on free agent offensive linemen they should draft more than one in this draft.  Starting with Williams is just the beginning.  Williams missed most of last season with an injury but he showed up at the combine and looked healthy and athletic and he had actually trimmed a bit of weight.  If he had been healthy and there were no questions about his durability he probably would have been a top 10 pick in this draft.

19. Dallas Cowboys (9-7): Isaiah Oliver CB   Colorado

The Cowboys have a new defensive backs coach in former Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard and supposedly he wants to move safety Byron Jones to CB because he likes bigger, taller CBs like he had in Seattle.  Last year the Cowboys drafted Jourdan Lewis and Chidobe Awuzie at CB but both of them are under 6’0 tall.  Oliver is 6’1 and would give the Cowboys the type of length at the position Richard is looking for.  Oliver is an ascending player and his size is a major asset.  The Cowboys could look to get a WR with Dez Bryant’s future with the franchise questionable or they could grab a TE to replace Jason Witten, assuming he doesn’t play forever.  The defense could use some depth at LB or at DE.  The one surprising spot I think the Cowboys could take is a RT and then they could move La’el Collins back inside to OG.

20. Detroit Lions (9-7): Marcus Davenport DE   UT-San Antonio

Davenport is a freak athlete from a small school who is just scratching the surface of what he can be.  He’s nearly 6’6 and 255 lbs. and he’s got a great first step but he needs to refine some of his pass rushing skills.  The Lions need someone to take the pressure off of Ezekiel Ansah and if they decide not to sign Ansah long-term they will need someone to eventually replace him.  The Lions could go a couple of other directions like drafting a real RB to replace their less than impressive group.  And while grabbing Derrius Guice would be a welcome addition to their offense they can get a RB in a later round that will still be better than what they have.  A CB to pair with Darius Slay or DT to replace the aging Haloti Ngata are also possibilities.

21. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE from Buffalo 9-7): Mike McGlinchey OT   Notre Dame

When you look at the 49ers roster you have to appreciate Jimmy Garoppolo and how he led this team to six wins last year.  They have holes all over and that’s why they make the trade with Buffalo to pick up this pick and the next one.  They start off with McGlinchey because they need to protect their very expensive investment in Garoppolo and they need a lot of help on the offensive line.  McGlinchey can come in and start immediately at RT and has a chance to be Joe Staley’s eventual replacement at LT.  He’s not flashy and he may never make a Pro Bowl in his career but McGlinchey will be a solid starting OT for many years and that would be an upgrade to what the 49ers currently have.

22. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE from Buffalo from KC 10-6): James Washington WR   Oklahoma St.

Garoppolo had to rely pretty heavily on Marquise Goodwin last season when Pierre Garcon was hurt and the 49ers really need to find weapons for Jimmy G.  Garcon is 31 so even if he’s back it’s hard to rely on him.  Washington is very comparable to Garcon as a very thickly built WR who tracks the deep ball very well.  He will stretch the defense for sure and give the 49ers a legitimate #1 WR.  Giving the 49ers offense some extra protection up front with McGlinchey and a deep threat with Washington would be a very nice start to this draft.

23. Los Angeles Rams (11-5): Ogbonnia Okoronkwo OLB   Oklahoma

The Rams got their offseason going in a hurry with a couple of trades before the league year even started.  They traded for CB Marcus Peters from Kansas City so they won’t have to pay Trumaine Johnson.  They followed that up by trading Robert Quinn to the Dolphins and the only reason they did is because Quinn just wasn’t a great fit as an OLB in their 3-4 defense.  They need a pass rushing OLB who can play as a LB and here they grab Okoronkwo because he should be able to fill that role.  He was a DE at Oklahoma but he’s only 6’1 242 lbs. so he will have to move to OLB.  He’s a more natural fit and he’ll come at a cheaper price than Quinn.  If anybody can get the best out of Okoronkwo it’s DC Wade Phillips.

24. Carolina Panthers (11-5): James Daniels C/G   Iowa

The Panthers are facing losing OG Andrew Norwell to free agency because he may be too expensive to keep and C Ryan Kalil has announced that 2018 will be his last season as he plans to retire.  Daniels is not a name you’re hearing a lot as a first round pick just yet but after his combine performance that could change.  He’s still just 20 years old and has some physical maturing to do but he would be the perfect choice to come in this season and start at OG in place of Norwell.  Playing next to Kalil for a year would give him a great learning environment and then he can step in and take over when Kalil retires after the season.  The Panthers have to protect Cam Newton and Daniels is a long-term investment towards that end.

25. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Taven Bryan DE   Florida

The Titans pressing needs are at OG and OLB as their OGs are pretty average and their OLBs are aging.  Those two positions don’t offer the value here that other positions do and with DaQuan Jones a free agent they need a new 3-4 DE for their front.  It just so happens that is the best position for Taven Bryan and he’s a very good value here.  Bryan is built to be a five-technique and he would be a great addition opposite Jurrell Casey on the other side.  It’s possible they will pull the trigger on either Will Hernandez or Isaiah Wynn at OG but Bryan is a really good 3-4 DE prospect and they can find OGs much later in the draft.

26. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): Isaiah Wynn OG   Georgia

When you’re 10-6 and a year removed from a Super Bowl appearance you have the luxury of addressing a specific need in the first round of the draft.  The Falcons have two very specific needs, a DT to replace the likely free agent departure of Dontari Poe and a new right guard because it has been a weakness on the line for too long.  The DT position is thinned out a bit with Vea, Payne and Bryan all taken and whether Maurice Hurst’s medical evaluation is cleared or not (he had a heart issue at the combine) he’s not a great fit for what the Falcons need because they need some size up front so they may wait to address it.  Wynn played OT at Georgia but he’s considered too short to be one in the NFL and will move inside in the NFL.  He has great feet and movement skills and because of that he will be a perfect fit in the Falcons zone blocking scheme.  Wynn solidifies a trouble spot at RG for the Falcons from day one.

27. New Orleans Saints (11-5): Mike Gesicki TE   Penn St.

The Saints had a fantastic draft last year and actually fixed most of what was wrong with their defense and while they could keep adding to it they could use an upgrade at TE.  Coby Fleener is okay and Josh Hill is serviceable but this team once employed Jimmy Graham so grabbing an athletic freak like Gesicki could work out well for them.  The running game is great with Ingram and Kamara and Michael Thomas is a legitimate #1 WR but adding a threat in the middle for Drew Brees’ last few years would be amazing.  Gesicki lit up the combine with his running and jumping and he’ll add a dimension the Saints don’t currently have on offense.  The TE position has no clear-cut top player but Gesicki put himself in the discussion with his work in Indy.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3): Mason Rudolph QB   Oklahoma St.

Rudolph becomes the fifth QB taken in the first round as the Steelers decide to find an heir apparent to Big Ben.  Roethlisberger has openly talked about retirement and so the Steelers look to get a guy that can eventually step in.  Rudolph is a big, strong-armed QB and would fit well in their offense.  He throws a good deep ball and giving him some time behind Ben would ease his transition to the NFL game.  The Steelers have a more pressing need at ILB with the injury to Ryan Shazier so if they were to grab Rashaan Evans here I wouldn’t be shocked, they also need help at safety but there really isn’t much value at this point so they should wait.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6): Chukwuma Okorafor OT   Western Michigan

If the Jaguars spend a single draft pick on defense I’ll be surprised.  The defense is fantastic and they need to surround Blake Bortles with more talent on offense.  If for some reason they let both Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee get away in free agency (I think Robinson comes back and they lose Lee) then WR becomes a massive priority and grabbing a TE wouldn’t be a bad idea either.  However, this team wants to rely on the Leonard Fournette and the run game to take the pressure off Bortles so improving the line would be wise.  Okorafor is a big body that moves well and he gives them options.  They could play him inside at OG until they need him at OT, they could move Jeremy Parnell their RT inside and play Okorafor there or he could replace Cam Robinson at LT and Robinson could move inside or to RT.  No matter how it works Okorafor improves their team up front and makes Leonard Fournette that much more effective.

30. Minnesota Vikings (13-3): Will Hernandez OG   UTEP

If the Vikings pull off the Cousins signing their offense will be almost ready to roll.  The one problem with spending a bunch of money on a QB is that you need to go cheaper in some places and you need to protect him.  Enter an offensive guard in round one of the draft to do both of those things.  Hernandez is a beast and if they plug him into LG between Riley Reiff and last year’s rookie C Pat Elflein they will have the makings of a pretty good blindside to protect Cousins.  Hernandez is also a road grader when it comes to the run game and returning RB Dalvin Cook would look really good running behind him.  If the Vikings can’t pull off the Cousins signing I think they may just bring back Case Keenum on a short contract and potentially draft a QB like Lamar Jackson at this spot.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Kolton Miller OT   UCLA

The Patriots are facing the prospect of losing LT Nate Solder in free agency and I think Belichick will be reluctant to spend big money on a 30-year old OT that is solid but not really elite.  Miller is nearly a carbon copy of Solder as he too is 6’8 and athletic, his advantage is he’s younger and much cheaper.  Miller shows inconsistency on tape but he’s extremely athletic and as long as the Patriots can get Dante Scarnecchia to return again at the age of 70 to coach the offensive line he’ll get the best out of Miller.  Keeping Tom Brady upright is still where the offense begins.

32. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): Leighton Vander Esch OLB   Boise St.

This Eagles team is talented and deep.  They could look for a new LT as Jason Peters is aging and coming off a serious injury but Vaitai (I’m not writing out his first name because there is no way I’ll spell it right) did a solid job in his place and I’m not sure Orlando Brown or anyone else here would be an upgrade.  The CB spot wasn’t great but they gave up a bit to get Ronald Darby so I don’t see them cutting ties with him and they have to be hopeful that Sidney Jones, whom they drafted and basically redshirted with an injury, can upgrade the position.  The one place there are some questions is LB.  Nigel Bradham is a free agent, Jordan Hicks has had issues staying healthy and there are persistent rumors the team is always looking to trade Mychal Kendricks.  I don’t know a ton about Vander Esch as he was a one-year starter at Boise St. but he showed up big in Indy and I was hearing his name quite a bit leading up to the combine.  There’s always that one guy in the first round that everyone says Who?  This year that’s Vander Esch.  He would give the Eagles options and add a very good athlete to their very good front seven.

Notes about this Mock Draft

QB Lamar Jackson – I just couldn’t find a spot in the first round for Jackson and I’m still not totally convinced he goes in the first anyway.  He has a few things going for him logistically just in the fact that so many teams need QBs and that includes so many that could look to grab a future starter to replace their aging starter.  It would surprise me more if a team doesn’t trade up into the end of the first round to grab Jackson if he falls past say New Orleans at #27.  The Vikings, Patriots and Eagles would be primed to trade out of the first round, unless of course Bill Belichick decides Lamar Jackson is the Patriots future starter…yes this scares the crap out me.  Some people think Jackson is the future of the NFL (Mike Mayock), I think there is just as much of a reason to believe he’s the future Vince Young.

DT Maurice Hurst – he had a medical issue with his heart detected at the combine and wasn’t allowed to participate until he under goes more testing.  He’s a first round talent for sure but until he gets medical clearance he’s not making a mock draft of mine.  Best of luck to him that the issue is something easily corrected and not career ending.

Running Backs – How do I have a RB going #1 overall and then not a single other RB in the first round of the draft? Especially with such a good class of RBs?  I had a hard time leaving Derrius Guice out of this mock draft but I just couldn’t find a good place for him.  Certainly, Detroit is a possibility as are San Francisco and Carolina but the depth of the position works against him.  Why spend a first round pick on Guice or Ronald Jones when I could draft John Kelly, Rashaad Penny or Akrum Wadley in the 3^rd or 4^th round?  As much as guys like Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley have proven drafting RBs in the top 10 isn’t a bad idea, guys like David Johnson, Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt have proven getting a guy in the 3^rd round can work out just as well.

OT Orlando Brown – Brown has gone from a surefire 1^st round pick to out of my 1^st round because he just looked disinterested at the combine.  A slow 40 time for a guy that’s almost 6’9 and weighs 345 lbs. is not surprising but his lackluster effort in the drills in Indy is a red flag.  Usually the coaches are yelling encouragement at the players to finish a drill or run it out but with Brown it was as if they were actually admonishing him for not trying.  BIG RED FLAG.  Whomever drafts Brown has to hope he only looks like the Stay Puft marshmallow man and doesn’t play like him.

LB Shaquem Griffin – The NFL network made a huge deal out of UCF LB Shaquem Griffin’s workout because just in case you missed the memo Griffin doesn’t have a left hand.  It was amputated when he was 4-years old because of a birth defect.  This didn’t hamper him as he won the AAC Defensive Player of the Year award and was a dominate force on UCF’s undefeated team.  Griffin isn’t going to go in the first round of the draft even though he thoroughly dominated the combine with a record setting 4.38 40 for a LB and some impressive other numbers and work in drills.  It’s not his lack of a hand that will keep him out of the first round it’s the fact he’s an undersized linebacker at 227 lbs.  He may have made himself a second-round pick, however, and whatever team drafts him is getting a good story and a better football player.  Even if he never becomes a full-time starting LB at the very least he’ll be the best special team’s gunner you have ever seen.

 

 

 

 

 

The 2018 NFL Draft will be defined by the QB position.  Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen are the three big early entries that head up the class. However, there are two Heisman Trophy winners, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, and a couple of very accomplished seniors Mason Rudolph and Luke Falk that add intrigue at the position.  Underclassmen have until January 15^th to declare and NC State’s Ryan Finley and Missouri’s Drew Lock are two more interesting prospects that could enter the draft although it looks like they will return to school.  Rosen and Darnold are the favorites for the overall #1 spot and while each one has their strengths they have their flaws too.  Allen is a lottery ticket with his great athleticism and powerful arm.  He could be the next Brett Favre or the next Kyle Boller.  Mayfield and Jackson are polarizing prospects because they don’t fit the traditional NFL QB profile but they are serious playmakers.  Two other major positions of strength on offense are the offensive line and running back.  Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Bryce Love, Ronald Jones II and Kerryon Johnson are underclassmen that are all special talents.  Georgia’s duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are highly accomplished and San Diego St’s Rashaad Penny and Iowa’s Akrum Wadley also had storied collegiate careers.  After last year’s lackluster offensive line class this draft class features five offensive tackles that should be first round picks (Mike McGlinchy, Orlando Brown, Connor Williams, Chukwura Okorafor and Kolton Miller) and one of the highest rated OGs, Quenton Nelson, in quite some time.  The defensive side isn’t quite as strong but DE Bradley Chubb, DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, LB Roquan Smith and S Derwin James are top-notch players at their positions.

1. Cleveland Browns (0-16): Josh Rosen   QB   UCLA

The Browns never-ending quest to find a QB continues as they have passed up guys like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson the last couple of years and have learned to regret those decisions.  Rosen doesn’t want to go to Cleveland, and I can’t blame him but he goes #1 overall so he’ll get over it.  I called Rosen as the #1 overall pick of the 2018 draft two years ago when he was playing out of his mind as a freshman starter for the Bruins.  He has every physical gift you could want and can make every NFL throw.  There are two things teams have to investigate, his health and his attitude.  Rosen has missed time the last two seasons and this year it was concussions that were an issue.  That’s never a good thing when looking for a long-term solution at any position but the Browns need a full-time answer at QB not a question mark.  Rosen is a different guy also, he has a bit of a golden boy image and that can rub people the wrong way.  I would take the chance that Rosen ends up being closer to Tom Brady than Jimmy Clausen and the Browns have to find a solution at QB.  I think Rosen is the more consistent player on the field than Darnold.

2. New York Giants (3-13): Mike McGlinchy   OT   Notre Dame

Everybody wants to talk about the Giants replacing Eli Manning with this pick but unless the Browns pass on a QB again or they really like Darnold, I’m not buying it.  The Giants have ignored their offensive line issues for too long and it’s time to get things straightened out.  McGlinchy isn’t flashy but he’s long and talented and he would be a massive upgrade at LT over Ereck Flowers.  I’ve said it since the Giants drafted Flowers but he needs to be a RT not a LT.  Drafting McGlinchy, inserting him at LT and moving Flowers to RT would improve two positions on the line and help the offense immensely.  They shouldn’t stop with just one o-lineman either, think at least 2 or 3 in this draft.  The only thing that makes me think the Giants might go another way is that new GM Dave Gettleman routinely ignored the offensive line in the draft when he was running the Panthers so it’s possible he goes with DE Bradley Chubb, that would be a very Giants thing to do.

3. Indianapolis Colts (4-12): Bradley Chubb   DE   NC State

Despite the fact that the Colts are picking third they might actually have the worst roster in the NFL.  If they hold on to TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief then they don’t need a WR but that’s about the only position they don’t need help.  They are counting on Andrew Luck to get healthy and return to full strength at QB but even that isn’t guaranteed.  That means they are in a position to go with the best talent available and that’s Chubb.  Luckily the Colts could really use some help rushing the passer so he’s a great fit.  He has some versatility and could be a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB depending on who’s coaching the Colts next year.  I could also make a pretty good argument for drafting RB Saquon Barkley (Frank Gore can’t play forever), DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (the secondary is atrocious) or even OG Quenton Nelson (they should really try to keep Andrew Luck alive).  The Colts almost can’t go wrong…I said almost.

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston 4-12): Saquon Barkley   RB   Penn St.

As bad as the Browns were this season it mostly falls on the offense as the defense was actually in the top half of the league (12^th overall).  The defense has some solid building blocks like DE Myles Garrett, LBs Jaime Collins and Christian Kirksey and S Jabrill Peppers.  The offense gets Rosen first but they need more playmakers.  The best thing you can do for a young QB is get him a good, reliable RB to lean on.  Barkley is a special talent and is a powerful runner and a fantastic pass catcher.  Isaiah Crowell is simply a solid RB but he’s not a game breaker.  The Browns spent some money on their offensive line last offseason with a new C and OG and if Joe Thomas comes back healthy they could really open things up for Barkley.  I could make an argument for DB Minkah Fitzpatrick as the Browns pass defense was behind their rush defense and an argument could be made for WR Courtland Sutton if they team doesn’t want to count on Josh Gordon.  Barkley is a special talent and if they really want to give their offense and new QB Josh Rosen a chance they should draft Barkley.

5. Denver Broncos (5-11): Quenton Nelson   OG   Notre Dame

This will be a popular place to put a QB in mock drafts and with the depth chart in Denver having Brock Osweiler, Trevor Simien and Paxton Lynch on it that’s not a terrible idea.  I could argue that the best option on the roster for the Broncos next season at QB could be Chad Kelly, a rookie that spent the entire year on injured reserve.  I think John Elway is more likely to make a move for Kirk Cousins or try to pry Eli Manning away from the Giants than draft a QB to be his starter.  This team, the defense especially, is built to win now not 3-4 years from now.  Whoever lines up behind center next season would be better off if they Broncos improve their offensive line.  It’s rare to see a OG go this high but the consensus is that Nelson is a special blocker and he could put some punch back in the Broncos run game, that would certainly help any QB they get.  If he moves in at LG he could also help LT Garrett Bolles who had an inconsistent rookie season for the Broncos.

6. New York Jets (5-11): Sam Darnold   QB   USC

The Jets somehow managed to not completely suck this year and they are sticking with their GM/Coach combination.  It’s seems like they want to bring back Josh McCown but clearly Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg are not the future at QB and Darnold is full of potential.  It’s possible Darnold is gone by this spot and if that’s the case they could reach for Allen.  If the Jets don’t like their QB options they could make an even smarter choice and try to fix their offensive line.  OTs Orlando Brown, Connor Williams or Kolton Miller would all be solid choices.  The offensive line is a deep position this year so they could wait until round 2 to address it, but they really do need to address it.  I’m not a huge Darnold fan.  I see the potential teams are looking at but really, he only looked good for 7 games last year and a few times this year.  He’s inconsistent, turnover prone and really could have used more playing time in college.  If the Jets draft him and bring back McCown so they can bring him along slowly that would be a much better move.  They have to fix their offensive line before throwing an untested kid out there or they are likely to destroy him before he ever gets started (think Houston Texans and David Carr).

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Minkah Fitzpatrick   DB   Alabama

Fitzpatrick is listed as a DB because he could end up being a safety or a corner depending on the needs of the team that drafts him and in this case the Buccaneers need both so he’s a great choice.  The Bucs pass defense was dead last in the league this year and while they could improve it with a better pass rush too Fitzpatrick is a far higher rated player than any pass rusher unless Chubb falls this far (not going to happen).  He could be a replacement for Brent Grimes and be the bigger CB complement to the slightly shorter Vernon Hargreaves or he could replace Chris Conte or TJ Ward at safety.  A versatile defender with superior upside is exactly what the Bucs defense needs.

8. Chicago Bears (5-11): Orlando Brown   OT   Oklahoma

Mitchell Trubisky looks like he’s a keeper at QB and that’s great news for a franchise that’s been looking for a QB for forever.  Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen make a nice duo at RB so the Bears have a few pieces on offense they can build around.  Their WR corps leaves a lot to be desired as they can’t count on Kevin White to be healthy and they need Cameron Meredith to return to health next season.  WR has some players they could grab but this might be a bit high for anyone not named Courtland Sutton.  They like LT Charles Leno, Jr even if he’s not an elite LT.  However, RT Bobbie Massie needs to be replaced.  Brown is a gigantic human being at 6’8 360 lbs. and would a massive upgrade over Massie and he could eventually replace Leno if he struggles.  Brown could help their running game by opening holes for Howard and Cohen.  At this point an OT is more valuable to them then a WR so Brown is the better choice.

9. San Francisco 49ers (6-10): Courtland Sutton   WR   SMU

The 49ers found their QB in Jimmy Garoppolo now they have to get him some help.  Marquise Goodwin became a favorite target of Jimmy G but he needs a complement.  Goodwin is a small and fast WR while Sutton is 6’4 215 lbs. beast that will add a dimension they don’t currently have.  They could choose to add one of the many OT prospects to protect their new franchise QB but getting him a top WR seems more pressing.  If they go OT it could be Kolton Miller or Connor Williams but the depth at OT is better than the depth at WR so they can wait.  They gave up their 2^nd round pick to get Garoppolo but that was a price well worth paying for a franchise QB.

10. Oakland Raiders (6-10): Kolton Miller   OT   UCLA

The Raiders need defensive help especially at CB but unless they are willing to grab Josh Jackson from Iowa or Denzel Ward from Ohio St. they will have to look elsewhere.  Jackson and Ward are good prospects but this seems a little high all the way up at 10.  The other thing this team found out this year is their offensive line was a huge part of their success in 2016 and the failure of that line really hampered them in 2017.  Donald Penn ended the season injured and he’s 34 years old.  Grabbing a young, athletic OT like Miller to protect Derek Carr’s blindside for the foreseeable future is a pretty good idea.  Jon Gruden is coming back to coach this team so I would guess he’ll work to get the offense back on track before fixing the defense.

11. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Roquan Smith   LB   Georgia

If you look at the numbers it was the Dolphins offense that was the problem this year and their defense wasn’t horrible but that’s a case of misleading stats.  This won’t be their offense next year as I expect them to bring back Ryan Tannehill and give Adam Gase a chance to work his magic again.  They need some help at OG but that can come later.  They lost Raekwon McMillan before he ever had a chance to do anything and now Kiko Alonso hurt his neck in week 17.  Lawrence Timmons is 100 in football years and Mike Hull is just a guy, this team needs LBs.  Smith is the top guy at the position and they could use his speed and playmaking ability.  If for some reason they cut bait on Tannehill and don’t bring in a real veteran option (Jay Cutler doesn’t count) then I suppose drafting Josh Allen is a possibility but I can’t see them starting over at QB just yet.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9): Chukwura Okorafor   OT   Western Michigan

Okorafor comes from Western Michigan but don’t let his level of competition fool you, this kid can dominate.  He’s 6’6 330 lbs. and would make a great blindside OT for the Bengals.  The Bengals two young tackles Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher haven’t distinguished themselves and both are dealing with ailments.  Okorafor can step in at LT and let Ogbuehi and Fisher fight it out to be the RT.  Having the loser of that competition be the third tackle would allow the team to not have to rely on Eric Winston, they need to let that man retire in peace.  The team could be looking to move on from Andy Dalton but if they do they will likely just try to bring back AJ McCarron and give him a shot.  Regardless of which QB they go with they could really use some steady blocking up front, they missed Andrew Whitworth more than they care to admit.

13. Washington Redskins (7-9): Derwin James   S   Florida St.

If the Redskins let Kirk Cousins walk in free agency then all bets are off on this pick but it’s hard to see them grabbing Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield or someone else here.  The Redskins run defense hasn’t been very good and while you don’t normally think of a safety being drafted to fix a run defense James isn’t your usual safety prospect.  Going into the year the thought of James falling to 15^th overall was crazy but he didn’t have a great year, much like the rest of the Seminoles.  However, he’s a unique talent that can play all over and will improve the Redskins defense in many ways.  Washington needs help in a couple of places in the middle of the defense and James’ versatility would be a welcome addition.

14. Green Bay Packers (7-9): Anthony Miller   WR   Memphis

The Packers spent some money to lock up Devante Adams to be their top WR going forward but questions about Jordy Nelson’s longevity and Randal Cobb’s free agency means Aaron Rodgers could need some new targets.  Miller isn’t tall but he’s strong and he’s accomplished and he should be able to step into any offense next season and produce.  He could be the perfect replacement for Cobb and after spending money on Adams they may be looking to save a little with a rookie instead of paying Cobb.  Miller catches everything and Rodgers will love him.  The Packers could look to grab an OT with the season ending injuries to starter Bryan Bulaga and backup Jason Spriggs but there is some depth at OT so they can grab a backup later.

15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Josh Jackson   CB   Iowa

The Cardinals have tried many players opposite Patrick Peterson over the years and none of them have been particularly good.  Currently Tramon Williams is the starter and he’s 34 years old.  Good CBs are hard to come by and Jackson and Denzel Ward are the next tier of players at the position after Fitzpatrick.  Jackson is taller than Ward and he’s a fantastic athlete with superior ball skills.  He and Peterson would make passing against the Cardinals a risky proposition.  The Cardinals could look to the offensive line where they suffered season ending injuries to OTs DJ Humphries and Jared Veldheer and OG Mike Iupati but if those guys get healthy they should be good.  They could look to grab Carson Palmer’s replacement at QB but Jackson looks like too good of a value pick here.  They can look for a guy like Mason Rudolph or Ryan Finley later in the draft if they don’t like their free agent options.  Jackson fills a big need they haven’t been able to fill in quite some time.

16. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): Calvin Ridley   WR   Alabama

It’s a cliché to give Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens an Alabama player at this point given Newsome’s preference for players from his alma mater.  In this case Ridley fills a gigantic need in Baltimore.  Mike Wallace is their best and at this point only consistent threat at WR.  Former 1^st round pick Breshad Perriman simply hasn’t produced due to injuries or simply being a bust.  Free agent addition Jeremy Maclin got hurt and in the season finale that the Ravens lost to knock them out of the playoffs they had 2 healthy WRs on the field.  Ridley wasn’t as dominant as he should have been but Joe Flacco is a better passer than Jalen Hurts so give Ridley a QB and his talent will shine through.

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7): Connor Williams   OT   Texas

The Chargers have two glaring weaknesses; 1. The offensive line, 2. Their run defense.  On defense they have a good pass rush and a very good secondary but they lack great run stuffers up front and they are well below average at middle LB.  On the offensive line Russell Okung was an upgrade at LT but that isn’t saying much.  Last year they drafted two interior offensive linemen; Forrest Lamp who missed the season with an injury and Dan Feeney who took some time to get his footing.  Williams could help solidify the line in front of Phillip Rivers and make Melvin Gordon even more effective.  If Williams hadn’t been hurt all year he very well could have been the top OT in the draft.  He is also likely to be a long-term replacement for Okung.

18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Maurice Hurst   DT   Michigan

This wouldn’t be the ideal scenario for the Seahawks having the top 6 offensive linemen off the board when they come up.  They may need to make a move up considering their major need up front on the offensive line.  Instead, they make the most of the pick by grabbing Hurst who can come in a fill the shoes of Michael Bennett.  Bennett feels like he won’t be back in Seattle and I agree with him.  Hurst can play that hybrid E/T position on the line Bennett currently holds and he’s younger and will be cheaper.  The Seahawks could go CB with Richard Sherman suffering an injury this year and having no depth but Denzel Ward really doesn’t fit their profile.  LT Duane Brown was a nice addition through a trade this year but the Seahawks will really want to consider moving up to get one of the better linemen in this draft before they shorten Russell Wilson’s career.

19. Dallas Cowboys (9-7): Denzel Ward   CB   Ohio St.

The Cowboys spent two draft picks on Jourdan Lewis and Chidobe Awuzie last season but neither one has proven to be a top-notch corner and they still relied heavily on Orlando Scandrick.  Scandrick is 30 years old and has back issues that ended his season so the Cowboys still need a CB1.  Ward is only 5’10 but he plays bigger than that and he has the strength to matchup with bigger WRs.  There is a lot of talk that the Cowboys will look to move on from Dez Bryant and if they do they could go with another Oklahoma St. WR in James Washington or perhaps they like the other Oklahoma St. WR Marcel Ateman better.  Like I said before CB doesn’t have deep top-level talent in this draft so Ward is better value than a WR here.

20. Detroit Lions (9-7): Marcus Davenport   DE   UT-San Antonio

I really want to give the Lions LSU RB Derrius Guice because Ameer Abdullah is terrible and Theo Riddick isn’t a true RB but I think they can grab a good RB later, there will be talent well beyond the first round.  They have to hedge against losing their only good pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah in free agency and even if they keep him he needs help.  Anthony Zettel did okay this year but he isn’t the threat Davenport could be.  Davenport isn’t a household name, that’s what happens when you play at UTSA but scouts know him.  He’s 6’7 255 lbs. and athletic.  His combine and individual workouts could move him higher than 20^th in this draft, even as high as 10-15.  Ansah has been doing the pass rushing mostly alone for the Lions, I’m sure he would appreciate some assistance.  They should grab a real RB in round 2.

The order from here is subject to change as the playoff outcomes dictate order, for now it goes by seed.   

21. Buffalo Bills (9-7): Christian Wilkins   DT   Clemson

There was a time when Wilkins was talked about as a potential #1 overall pick in this draft and while he slips here he’s still really good.  He may not seem like he was as productive as he could have been a lot of that has to do with the ridiculous talent around him on Clemson’s line.  He had to share the wealth.  GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott were in Carolina when they drafted Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short so they know the importance of interior defensive lineman.  The team traded Marcel Dareus because he was more trouble than he was worth and Kyle Williams isn’t getting any younger. They have one undersized DT in Adolphus Washington so Wilkins size would be a welcome addition.  This team needs help on the offensive line too but that will have to come later.  It’s possible they look at QB given Nathan Peterman’s less than stellar debut this season and their obvious antipathy towards Tyrod Taylor.  I could see them looking for a trade candidate like Alex Smith or Blake Bortles or a second-tier free agent like Sam Bradford or they also have another pick just a few picks away.

22. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): Vita Vea   DT   Washington

Vea is a different kind of DT and his size makes him a good fit for Atlanta.  Vea is 6’5 344 lbs. and the Falcons may be looking to replace Dontari Poe who is 6’3 346 lbs. They need a guy with some heft because their other starting DT is Grady Jarrett who is a bit undersized.  Vea is a fantastic athlete for a human being as large as he is and he’s a heck of a football player.  He holds the point of attack very well and he can collapse a pocket when asked to do so.  He would keep the Falcons fast LBs clean and allow them to make the plays they need them to make.  Poe was on a 1-year deal and it’s possible the Falcons will look for a cheaper alternative with Vea.

23. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Ogbonnia Okoronkwo   DE/OLB   Oklahoma

The Titans got into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth and while their offense could best be described as middling I’m not sure they can draft anyone that can fix it, unless they can draft a different coach.  On the other hand, their defense was terrible against the pass and they need to generate more pressure.  OLB Brian Orakpo is on the wrong side of 30 and OLB Derrick Morgan is solid but unspectacular.  Okoronkwo is undersized at 6’1 242 lbs. but he would excel in their 3-4 defense.  He’s a natural pass rusher that could learn from two veterans while providing a pass rushing specialist until he’s needed as a starter in a year or two.

24. Carolina Panthers (11-5): Arden Key   DE   LSU

Julius Peppers, Charles Johnson and Mario Addison are all on the wrong side of 30 (Peppers is really far on the wrong side) and the Panthers defense is built around a strong front 7.  Key hasn’t produced this year as expected but LSU wasn’t exactly great so it’s understandable.  He’s a long, lean athlete that can bend the edge and while he needs to add some weight (he’s around 240 lbs.) Peppers, Johnson and Addison could still be around for another year to give him some time to do so.  The Panthers also need offensive line help but that’s been true for years and they seem to not care.  The other possibility is a WR where they traded Kelvin Benjamin during the year.  They said they did it because he and Devin Funchess were similar big bodied WRs and they wanted to get some speed on the field.  Well James Washington from Oklahoma St. has deep speed and would be a very good complement to Funchess and a better WR option than Russell Shepard.

25. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City 10-6): Josh Allen   QB   Wyoming

The Bills picked up this pick from the Chiefs last year when Kansas City wanted to move up to grab Patrick Mahomes, their future QB.  It’s only fair the Bills grab a QB of the future and the present going forward.  I have no idea what they want to do with Tyrod Taylor but I know they probably shouldn’t count on Nathan Peterman as their starter going forward.  Allen didn’t have the breakout year some were predicting. that could have vaulted him to the top of this draft class, however, there is plenty of talent in the kid that is easy to see.  He’s big, athletic and has a fantastic arm.  He throws the ball well everywhere on the field and he’s simply a playmaker.  If I were the Bills I might try to bring Taylor back for a year or two to give Allen time especially since the Bills offensive line isn’t great.  Let Taylor run around back there for a few years until you fix it, then let Allen take over.

26. New Orleans Saints (11-5): Baker Mayfield   QB   Oklahoma

This one may seem like a little bit of a shocker but Drew Brees is almost as old as Tom Brady and technically he’s a free agent this offseason.  I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell he leaves the Saints but I don’t think the Saints are going to be handing him a 5-year deal either.  New Orleans simply doesn’t have a plan for life after Brees and Mayfield could be the guy.  There have been some that have compared Mayfield to Brees, he’s a little short and highly accurate so there’s that but I see him a little differently.  I think he’s more Russell Wilson than Drew Brees.  Mayfield’s ceiling is being Russell Wilson, that’s a pretty good ceiling, his floor is being Colt McCoy, that’s a pretty low floor.  I’m not a huge fan but he could be really good and considering the Saints have no succession plan in place for when Brees hangs them up, this isn’t a bad idea.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6): Hayden Hurst   TE   South Carolina

The Jaguars defense has been amazing and Blake Bortles hasn’t totally sucked so they can look elsewhere in round 1.  If the team decides to let Marqise Lee walk they could grab a WR but they could really use a TE.  Mercedes Lewis has been there forever but he’s not exactly dominant.  Hurst isn’t a household name and he wasn’t an overly productive TE but he’s athletic, skilled and he’ll be a better pro.  If Bortles is back next year he could really use a reliable TE.  Hurst is an early entry prospect giving up his final year of eligibility but he’s actually 24 because he played pro baseball for a few years before going to South Carolina.  He would give their offense another dimension and his blocking would also help Leonard Fournette.

28. Los Angeles Rams (11-5): Taven Bryan   DL   Florida

The Rams are the single biggest surprise of the season and Sean McVay has their offense humming along.  Wade Phillips did a fantastic job with their defense but their run defense still has some issues.  One of the issues is that Phillips preferred 3-man front needs the right kind of defensive linemen.  While Aaron Donald is a dominant force they still need a more typical 3-4 defensive end opposite him.  Bryan is a 6’5 295 lbs. end/tackle that can do just that.  A more effective player there would make Donald and OLB Robert Quinn even more disruptive.  They could grab a CB like Isaiah Oliver from Colorado but Bryan is good value.

29. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3): Derrius Guice   RB   LSU

I think there is a chance the Steelers don’t hold onto LeVeon Bell in the offseason.  He is going to command a lot of money and franchising him again will not make him a happy camper.  Even if they do, he’s a RB and they have a short shelf-life unless they are Frank Gore.  Guice shouldn’t be available here but in this draft, he is because I can’t find a place for him.  He’s a fantastic prospect and really is just Barkley with less hype.  He has the skillset to replace Bell and be fantastic.  The Steelers could look to find an LB like Tremaine Edmunds given Ryan Shazier’s injury but good teams like the Steelers rarely draft for need if there is a guy as good as Guice still on the board.  Guice is just too valuable here even if Bell does return.

30. Minnesota Vikings (13-3): Will Hernandez   OG   UTEP

The Vikings defense has been outstanding and while they could look to find some youth for their defensive line (Linval Joseph, Brian Robison and Everson Griffen will all be over 30 next year).  However, they could still use some interior help on the offensive line and while Hernandez isn’t a sexy pick he could pay huge dividends especially for Dalvin Cook when he returns at RB.  They could also protect whomever they decide to employ next season at QB.  Hernandez is huge and would be a road grader and a long-term solution inside.  The team spent money on Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers last year at OT and drafted C Pat Elflein.  Those moves all paid off with better line play, Hernandez could be the next piece to the puzzle.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): Isaiah Oliver   CB   Colorado

The Eagles have been one of the best teams all season and while they don’t have a lot of holes they could use some help at CB.  Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby have done a decent job this season but they are replaceable.  They are hoping last year’s flyer on Sidney Jones from Washington is going to pay off.  They took Jones despite his torn Achilles that occurred during his pro day.  If Jones fully recovers he’s a fantastic talent.  Oliver is 6’1 so he’s got some nice length and would make a nice pairing with Jones going forward for the Eagles.  He isn’t as highly ranked as Jackson or Ward but he’s probably the best of the next tier.

32. New England Patriots (13-3): Clelin Ferrell   DE   Clemson

There’s about a 900% chance the Patriots trade this pick because they have the 49ers 2^nd rounder from the Garoppolo trade so they will use this one to gain extra picks.  If they do make the pick it’s either going to be a CB (Jaire Alexander-Louisville, Holton Hill-Texas, Carlton Davis-Auburn, all possible) or a pass rusher.  Trey Flowers and Lawrence Guy were serviceable this year but there is no depth and no pure pass rushing specialist.  Ferrell is a young guy with tons of potential and could be molded into a real threat.  The Patriots could look for a OT but there isn’t great value here.  Tremaine Edmunds would be a nice addition at LB but that makes too much sense.  My dark horse choice here is Bill Belichick completely messing with everyone’s minds and taking QB Lamar Jackson.  For the record, I’m not a Jackson fan unless they are planning on playing him at WR, he just doesn’t seem like an NFL QB to me.  I think he’s Vince Young not Cam Newton.

 

 

NFC East

This division is the enigma as each team has questions that could derail their seasons and strengths that could carry them to the top.  Philadelphia’s season hinges on the development of Carson Wentz and their offense.  The Cowboys got good news when Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension was put on hold with a restraining order but they have a number of suspensions on defense and lots of new faces in the secondary.  The Giants have a good defense and a good receiving corps but they failed to address an offensive line that just isn’t very good.  Washington brought back QB Kirk Cousins on another franchise tag but he lost a number of important weapons and the defense isn’t setting the world on fire.  It’s a coin toss (if you can find a three-sided coin) between Philly, Dallas and New York but I’m going with the upside in Philly.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles clearly found their QB of the future and the present last year in Carson Wentz.  His development is key to the future and so they went out and got him two new WRs in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to go along with holdover Nelson Agholor.  TE Zach Ertz took a little time to develop but he’s a pretty solid weapon for Wentz.  They also grabbed RB LeGarrette Blount to take over as the power back and replace the now departed Ryan Mathews.  Blount won’t have to do it himself as the team has Wendall Smallwood and the ageless Darren Sproles is still around to do his thing.  The offensive line can be a strength but they are counting on 35-year old Jason Peters to hold up at LT and that is a gamble.  If Peters goes down or is ineffective RT Lane Johnson can move over (he eventually will when Peters calls it quits) but the team isn’t prepared to replace Johnson at RT if he has to move now.

The defensive line should be a strength built around DT Fletcher Cox.  While his new interior partner Tim Jernigan wasn’t great in Baltimore, hence the reason he was traded, he is surrounded by top talent and the Eagles are hoping a change of scenery gets him going.  They are deep at DE with starters Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry, veteran backup Chris Long comes over after winning the Super Bowl with New England last year and rookie Derek Barnett should be a solid situational pass rusher.  The LBs; Jordan Hicks, Mychal Kendricks and Nigel Bradham are nothing special but they will hold their own behind a good defensive line.  The secondary took a hit in week 1 when Ronald Darby, who came to Philly in a trade during the preseason (for WR Jordan Matthews) injured his ankle (he’s out 4-6 weeks).  The Philly CBs leave a lot to be desired and Jalen Mills just got a battlefield promotion to #1 CB.  In a division that has Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant this could be a problem.  Rodney McLeod and Malcolm Jenkins do a lot of the heavy lifting in the secondary and make a pretty good safety tandem.  Every team in the division has flaws and I feel better about Philadelphia’s upside and less concerned about their issues than the other teams.

Dallas Cowboys

QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott led the Cowboys offense last year as rookies and they look to build on that foundation.  Elliott’s suspension has been put on hold while he takes the NFL to court.  I could say a lot about how a guy should certainly be suspended for domestic abuse but I could also say a lot about a league administration that can’t seem to hold a fair hearing for anyone and undermines its own process.  Roger Goodell is an incompetent fool when it comes to his discipline process.  For now, Elliott plays whether you like it or not and that’s good news for the team.  Prescott has weapons in Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, Cole Beasley and the future Hall of Famer Jason Witten.  He knows how to use them and Elliott and that makes this team dangerous.  The Cowboys have had the best offensive line in the league for several years but there are a few changes.  RT Doug Free retired and OG La’el Collins will move to RT to replace him, Collins may be an upgrade over the aging Free but it hurts them inside.  They also lost some depth when OG Ronald Leary signed in Denver so it’s now Chaz Green and Jonathan Cooper fighting for the LG spot.  The good news is LT Tyron Smith, RG Zack Martin and C Travis Frederick are arguably the best players at their respective positions in the entire league.

The Cowboys defense has as many suspended DEs (Randy Gregory, David Irving and Damontre Moore) as it has healthy ones.  Demarcus Lawrence got off to a hot start and they like rookie Taco Charlton but their depth will be tested (BTW, Gregory is unlikely to play again, ever, he’s a train wreck).  Stephen Paea and Maliek Collins are solid if unspectacular at DT.  The linebacking corps is dealing with an injury to Anthony Hitchens and the return to playing of Jaylon Smith after missing last year with a horrific knee injury.  Sean Lee is his solid self but his age and his injury history are going to slow him down sooner rather than later.  The secondary is where the real issues could arise.  The team lost CB Morris Claiborne, CB Brandon Carr, S JJ Wilcox and S Barry Church and their replacements are suspect.  Orlando Scandrick, Anthony Brown and Nolan Carrol are the top three CBs and that’s not reassuring.  Byron Jones returns at safety but he’s now paired with Jeff Heath, things could get ugly.  If you pair an unreliable pass rush with an unreliable secondary, things can go downhill fast.  This team overcame issues on defense last year as they played better than people thought but now they have taken more hits on that side and it will have an effect.  I don’t believe Dak and Zeke can overcome it all and this team will take a slight step back.  They can still be a playoff team but they will have a fight on their hands.

New York Giants

QB Eli Manning, WRs Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram, that’s the good news on offense.  LT Ereck Flowers, LG Justin Pugh, C Weston Richburg, RG John Jerry and RT Bobby Hart, that’s the bad news on offense.  Manning has plenty of weapons to throw to (once Beckham comes back from his injured ankle) but will he have the time to get them the ball.  They return last year’s offensive line and that’s not a good thing.  Flowers shouldn’t be a LT, he might be fine on the right side but he gets beat like a snare drum at LT.  Bobby Hart should be a backup OT or play inside at OG.  C Weston Richburg is fine but he’s only one man.  RB Paul Perkins would be a decent player behind the Cowboys or Raiders offensive lines but behind this group he’s well below average.  He simply isn’t a guy that can create yards for himself.  This is unfortunate for the team because they may be wasting the last few good years of Eli behind a terrible offensive line that may usher in the end of his career sooner rather than later.

It’s also a travesty that the offensive line could undermine the entire offense and in turn waste a phenomenal defense.  Last year the Giants spent money in free agency to fix a shaky defense, they signed DT Damon Harrison, DE Olivier Vernon and CB Janoris Jenkins and they re-signed Jason Pierre-Paul and all of those signings worked out well.  It also helped that S Landon Collins made the leap from good early round draft pick to elite Defensive Player of the Year candidate and became the superstar they knew he could be.  The team still lacks elite playmakers at LB but when you have a dominating defensive line and a deep and talented secondary they can make up for a lot.  The defense is going to keep them in just about every game no matter what but they still need points and Eli Manning is going to find those hard to come by while in a heap behind his offensive line with a defender laying on top of him.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins and the Giants should combine their offenses, take the Giants WRs and Eli Manning and combine them with TE Jordan Reed and the Redskins offensive line, neither teams’ RBs are worth mentioning but the passing game would be scary.  The Redskins should be better considering how many players they have in the prime of their careers but not as many of those guys are on offense.  LT Trent Williams is an elite player but he’s 29 and he won’t be around forever.  The right side of the line, RG Brandon Scherff and RT Morgan Moses, along with C Spencer Long should grow together as a very good unit as they are all still early in their careers.  QB Kirk Cousins is a solid starter but the team has undermined his ability for success by letting WRs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon go and only bringing in Terrell Pryor as a replacement.  WR Jamison Crowder was good last year but that’s because Jackson and Garcon took all the attention to the outside and Crowder was left alone to do his damage, that won’t be the case this year.  TE Jordan Reed is fantastic when he’s healthy but he too will see more coverage without the two outside WRs.  RBs Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson look like a great thunder and lightning combination on paper but it doesn’t seem to translate as well on the field.  They were hoping rookie Samaje Perine would make some noise but so far, he’s been pretty quiet.

The Redskins have a number of good players on their defense but they lack elite talent.  Out of all of their starters CB Josh Norman is probably the only guy that rates in the top 10 of his position group in the league and he wasn’t always great last year.  OLB Ryan Kerrigan is good but he’s pushing 30 and his effectiveness could slip any time.  DT Ziggy Hood, DE Stacy McGee, LB Mason Foster, LB Zach Brown, CB Bashaud Breeland and FS DJ Swearinger are all solid players but they don’t dominate the game.  Rookie DE Jonathan Allen can be a dominant player but he’s going to need some help from somewhere.  OLB Preston Smith needs to get back to where he was two years ago and build on that as a pass rusher.  The other guy that could really help is Allen’s Alabama teammate OLB Ryan Anderson, he has pass rushing skills that could come in handy.  I think Cousins looks like a decent QB this year because he doesn’t have the talent around him to elevate his play and he’s not really the type of QB that makes the guys around him better.  The Redskins are going to struggle in a competitive division because they don’t have the elite talent the other three teams have.