MVP

Contenders: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson

Sleeper: Matthew Stafford

            These guys all have one thing in common, they are all QBs.  Let’s face it, QBs win the MVP award more often than not.  It’s unfair and it’s also unavoidable.  The QB is the most important position in professional sports.  Derrick Henry ran for over 2000 yards last season and didn’t garner a single MVP vote.  This isn’t about how valuable a player is, it’s about how valuable the voters perceive him to be. 

            Rodgers won the award in a landslide last year and he’ll be damn good this year too.  However, it’s hard to win it twice in a row because you’re not just competing against the league, you are competing against yourself from last year.  Mahomes has won recently too and will be competing against himself a bit too.  Brady won’t put up the stats to really get into the conversation but after winning his seventh Super Bowl, people will be talking about him.  Russell Wilson has never received a single MVP vote, still a crazy stat, but he could win it any time.  Stafford is finally on a team with real talent and playing for a coach who knows offense.  He’s a legitimate threat if the Rams can win the NFC West.  Allen feels like the favorite.  He broke out last season, finished a distant second to Rodgers but his team is ready to take the next step and he is ready to lead them there. 

My Pick: Josh Allen. Too many things line up this year for him.  An offense that counts on him but gives him great playmakers like Stefon Diggs.  A defense that should help his team be even better.  And he will make plays that will wow everyone and make the highlight reels every week. 

Offensive Player of the Year

Contenders: All the QBs above minus Brady (he won’t have the stats).  RB Derrick Henry, RB Dalvin Cook, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Davante Adams, WR Tyreek Hill

Sleeper: RB Jonathan Taylor

            This award usually goes to the best non-QB offensive player since the MVP award usually goes to the best QB.  I know, it’s weird, but what are you going to do.  The QBs have to have amazing years, like 5000 yards and 50 TD level seasons, to win this award.  Henry, Cook and Kamara are fantastic offensive players.  Henry is a freak and just run over and through everyone.  Cook is a fantastic all-around runner going inside, outside and every way he needs to go to gain yards. Kamara is the runner/receiver threat that keeps defensive coaches up at night.  He’s going to be an even bigger part of the Saints offense with Drew Brees retired.  Adams and Hill are the two most explosive receivers in the game.  I would add DeAndre Hopkins but I just don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray.  Jonathan Taylor is one of the most talented RBs I’ve ever seen and I watched him for far too many years at Wisconsin.  If he gets 300 carries this year, he could lead the league in rushing.  The only thing that might stop him is the fact the Colts have Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines to steal some of his touches. 

My Pick: Dalvin Cook.  Mike Zimmer is going to ride Cook as far as he will take the Vikings.  My only concern is Cook gets beat up.  He carries the ball and runs as hard as Derrick Henry but he looks half Henry’s size.  If Cook holds up, he wins the award. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Contenders: DL Aaron Donald, DE Myles Garrett, DE Nick Bosa, LB Darius Leonard, CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Chase Young, OLB TJ Watt

Sleeper: OLB Matt Judon

            I dismissed Aaron Donald too quickly last year as he won the award again.  I do think TJ Watt had a case and Donald won it because the Rams had the #1 defense.  We will see if Donald can do it again.  His teammate Jalen Ramsey is still the best CB in the league so he’ll be up for this award too.  I still think Myles Garrett will win it at some point but the Browns have to win something and be a better overall defense for him to get noticed.  Watt will be back in the thick of the race this year but he’s going to face a tougher time with only Alex Highsmith taking focus on the other side of him. Chase Young was as good as advertised last year winning defensive rookie of the year and now the DPOY award is on his radar.  Washington’s defense is good enough to get him noticed too.  Bosa is coming back from injury but if he regains his pre-injury form, he’ll be right there for this award too.  Leonard is a tackling machine and I like to include a traditional LB.  Matt Judon was always a good OLB for the Ravens but now he plays for Bill Belichick.  There is no player better suited for Belichick’s defense than the multi-faceted Judon, he can be a star. 

My Pick: Chase Young.  The Washington defense is going to be fantastic and Young could have 18-20 sacks this year and I won’t be the least bit surprised.  I’m pulling for Judon but Young feels like the right choice. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: RB Najee Harris, QB Trevor Lawrence, QB Zack Wilson, QB Mac Jones, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Davonta Smith, TE Kyle Pitts, WR Ja’Marr Chase

Sleeper: RB Javonte Williams

            I’m not including Justin Fields or Trey Lance because they aren’t set to be the starters right away.  That doesn’t disqualify them but there are a lot of guys to talk about here so I have to trim the list.  Najee Harris is the most likely candidate.  He’s going to get the most use out of any rookie and his team is counting on him to be great.  Lawrence and Wilson are guys who should put up some stats because they will be on bad teams losing most of the time.  Mac Jones is the starting QB on what should be a really good team.  That could help him if the Patriots are really good.  Waddle could arguably be the top target on his team and so could Smith.  Both those WRs are going to put up good numbers.  Kyle Pitts has a chance to be outstanding and he has a good QB throwing to him.  Chase has not looked good in the preseason but he could flip a switch at any moment.  He will be sharing the ball with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd so that could depress his output.  Javonte Williams isn’t the starting RB in Denver…yet.  That guy is simply too good to keep off the field.

My Pick: I’m going to pick Harris.  The Steelers need him too much and will be relying on him a lot.  I really, really want to pick Javonte Williams, he could be special. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: LB Jamin Davis, DE Kwity Paye, LB Micah Parsons, CB Patrick Surtain II, CB Jaycee Horn, S Tre’von Moehrig, LB Zaven Collins, OLB Jaelen Phillips

Sleepers: OLB Azeez Ojulari, CB Asante Samuel Jr

            This one is going to be a lot harder to pick a favorite.  There is no Chase Young this year, there is no dominant pass rusher to rack up sacks and win this award easily.  Kwity Paye is the only edge rusher who is guaranteed to play.  Jaelen Phillips hasn’t emerged in Miami and while I really like Azeez Ojulari as a prospect, he may take some time to develop.  Jamin Davis will be productive in Washington, that defense is elite, but he will be overshadowed.  Patrick Surtain II looks great in camp but he’s got some veterans playing ahead of him still.  Horn should be the top CB in Carolina but teams may just avoid throwing at him so he won’t have great stats.  Moehrig is going to be on a bad defense in Vegas, he’s good, can he stand out enough?  I don’t trust the Cardinals with Collins until they get a new coaching staff.  I love Samuel but he’s not the starter yet either. 

My Pick: LB Micah Parsons.  He’s arguably the best defender for the Cowboys in preseason.  He’s awesome and he’s starting right now.  He’s going to be really good for Dan Quinn.

Postseason/Playoff Predictions (*Wildcard teams)

NFC

Washington

Green Bay

Tampa Bay

LA Rams

*San Francisco

*Seattle

*Dallas

AFC

Buffalo

Cleveland

Tennessee

Kansas City

*Baltimore

*LA Chargers

*New England

NFC Championship

Green Bay over Tampa Bay

AFC Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Kansas City (Aaron Rodgers either signs a new contract after they win or he retires and goes on to host Jeopardy)

            This division might be the messiest one in all of football.  The Colts could be very tough if Carson Wentz is healthy and playing at his best, those are two very big ifs.  The Texans are a dumpster fire but they could have the division’s best offense if Deshaun Watson had any chance of playing, there’s almost zero chance of that happening.  The Jaguars have hope, his name is Trevor Lawrence, but they might get that hope killed behind a suspect offensive line.  Oh, and no one knows if Urban Meyer can coach NFL football.  The Titans are probably the one consistent thing in the division but they are replacing Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator with Todd Downing, that’s a downgrade.  They are hoping Julio Jones has something left in the tank and for a team that has used it’s TEs quite well over the last several years, they have very little there right now.  The Titans’ defense has struggled lately and I don’t think counting on Bud Dupree to fix everything is a recipe for success.  The only way I’ll be surprised with the winner of this division is if the Texans pull it off with Tyrod Taylor leading the way and defense with more holes than a screen door. 

Tennessee Titans

            When in doubt go with the team with the sure thing at QB and a RB that runs like a freight train.  Ryan Tannehill is never going to be mistaken for Peyton Manning or Tom Brady but he knows who he is and plays within himself.  Arthur Smith did a masterful job the past several years helping Tannehill be his best self, it’s up to Todd Downing now.  Downing doesn’t have a long track record calling plays and what he does have is less than stellar.  However, it’s a lot easier to call plays when you have Derrick Henry at RB.  Henry ran for over 2000 yards last season and that’s an even more impressive feat considering everyone knows he’s getting the ball.  It might be helpful if the team could find a solid backup but Darryton Evans has injury issues, Jeremy McNichols hasn’t really impressed and their best option is undrafted rookie Mekhi Sargent, he made the team out of camp.  The offensive line has been built to be a run blocking unit and they have four of five spots pretty well set.  LT Taylor Lewan is a perfect fit.  LG Roger Saffold is aging but still effective.  C Ben Jones isn’t flashy but he’s intelligent.  RG Nate Davis is young and developing.  The RT spot is the one question mark.  Veterans Kendall Lamm and Ty Sambrailo battled and for now it looks like Sambrailo won. 

            The passing game took a hit when Jonnu Smith left in free agency for New England.  He had taken the place of Delanie Walker as Tannehill’s most trusted target and now Tannehill doesn’t have proven TE to use.  Geoff Swaim steps in as the blocker while the team hopes Anthony Firkser can build on a solid season behind Smith last year as the pass catcher.  WR Corey Davis left in free agency also and the team traded for Julio Jones.  At the top of his game Jones is a massive upgrade over Davis but Jones is 32 and coming off an injury plagued year in Atlanta.  He’s been banged up in the preseason and that’s not a great sign.  Jones doesn’t have to be the #1 WR as AJ Brown has proven to be a Tannehill favorite.  Brown is a bulldog, he plays everywhere, he’s not afraid to go over the middle and he’s tough as nails.  He fits perfectly in the Titans’ gritty offense.  The team really needs Josh Reynolds to step up as the third receiver.  They don’t have much after him on the depth chart and with their lack of a playmaking TE they could really use a good slot receiver.  This is a team that will certainly be looking at the waiver wire at WR come cutdown day.  At TE too. 

            The Titans’ defense struggled last season and it was mostly to do with the lack of pass rush.  They run a 3-4 defense and generally that doesn’t generate a lot of pass rush from the defensive line but the team signed Denico Autry from Indianapolis because he can play end in a 3-4 and still get to the QB.  He should pair nicely with Jeffrey Simmons who might actually be the best player on this defense.  For now, Teair Tart is the starter at the NT, he’s the major question mark up front.  The bigger free agent addition is Bud Dupree at OLB, he’s coming off a knee injury but he had eight sacks in 11 games for the Steelers last year, that’s what the Titans need.  They hope having Dupree on one side will also help free up Harold Landry on the other and really juice the pass rush.  Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans are a solid duo inside, they clean up in the tackling department.  They will need the defensive line to hold up inside to keep them clean, that could be an issue. 

            The secondary is undergoing a massive overhaul with only FS Kevin Byard a returning starter.  Byard is a very good safety but he had 111 tackles last season and you never want your last level of defense having to make that many tackles.  Amani Hooker moves into the SS spot after being a bit of a jack-of-all-trades in the secondary the last few years.  He’s a playmaker, they need that.  The team lost Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler at CB, that’s not a bad thing.  Janoris Jenkins will be 33 this year but he should still be decent as one starter.  For now, Kristian Fulton looks like the other starter after starting twice last year.  The real hope is that rookie Caleb Farley can be healthy after back surgery earlier this year.  Farley is a supreme talent that they drafted in round one but the back issues are concerning.  Farley has #1 CB ability, something this team hasn’t had in quite a while. 

Indianapolis Colts

            This team is gambling at a couple of key spots on the offense and so far, it’s not going well.  They made a major trade to bring in Carson Wentz at QB to take over for the retired Phillip Rivers.  They believe Frank Reich can fix whatever went wrong with Wentz in Philadelphia but Wentz got hurt already.  Even if he gets back to start the season, they still have to fix him.  The other spot is LT. Anthony Costanzo retired and the team didn’t do much until they signed Eric Fisher from Kansas City.  He tore his Achilles in January during the AFC Championship game and now the Colts are counting on a 30-year-old to recover from an Achilles tear in about nine months, that’s a tough ask.  They took an even bigger hit on the line when LG Quenton Nelson suffered the same foot injury that knocked Wentz out.  He’s the best guard in the league and they need him, he may be back to start the year too but he likely won’t be 100%.  Center Ryan Kelly is also dealing with an elbow injury so things are off to a rocky start for the Colts.  The right side of the line has RT Braden Smith and RB Mark Glowinski, they are steady players the team can count on. 

            They are solid at the skill positions.  RB Jonathan Taylor looks poised to be one of the better RB in the league and he’s not alone in the backfield.  Marlon Mack is a very talented player and Nyheim Hines is a heck of a third down threat.  Even Jordan Wilkins is a solid runner.  TY Hilton was hoping for a bounce back season but he’s injured and was placed on IR, not a great start.  The team seems to have confidence that both Michael Pittman Jr and Parris Campbell are young players ready to step up, they better hope so.  Zach Pascal isn’t flashy but he’s a solid fourth receiver who will likely start with Hilton out.  TEs Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox are not household names but they are professional TEs who get the job done.

            The defense plays better than they look on paper.  Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus seems to know what buttons to push and what plays to call.  They lost Denico Autry up front and Justin Houston as one of their better pass rushers.  They drafted Kwity Paye to step in and he should be solid.  Veterans Tyquan Lewis and Kemoko Turay need to step up and provide more playmaking at DE.  DeForest Buckner was a costly addition last year but he paid off in a major way.  He may not have quite the same statistical impact this year but his presence makes everyone better.  Grover Stewart starts inside next to Buckner and he’s an underrated talent. 

            The LB corps starts with Darius Leonard, he’s now one of the highest paid LBs in the NFL and rightfully so.  He’s a dynamic playmaker they rely on heavily.  He will miss the steady Anthony Walker at MLB but the team likes youngster Bobby Okereke there and they couldn’t afford to pay both Walker and Leonard, they made the right choice.  Zaire Franklin is the other young guy they like; they hope he holds up on the opposite side of Leonard.

            The secondary is surprisingly good and isn’t full of names anyone knows.  Xavier Rhodes looked done a couple of years ago in Minnesota but he’s steady for the Colts.  Rock Ya-Sin is the other outside guy and while he’s not great he isn’t bad.  Kenny Moore is the nickel back and he’s arguably the best one in the league.  FS Justin Blackmon is underrated for now, he’s pretty good.  SS Khari Willis is holding down that spot for now. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

            It’s Trevor Lawrence’s franchise now.  The Jaguars were extra bad at just the right time and had the #1 pick when a generational QB was on the board, now they have to try to not screw it up.  They are off to a rocky start with an offensive line that has looked terrible in the preseason.  They inexplicably franchised LT Cam Robinson and he’s not worth the price.  LG Andrew Norwell and RG AJ Cann should be better but they will both be 30 this year and seem to be struggling.  C Brandon Linder is the best of the bunch but he can’t do it all himself.  RT Jawaan Taylor is still a young, promising player that Urban Meyer and his coaching staff have to get to reach his potential.  They did draft Walker Little but I’m not sure he’s ready to step in at LT just yet. 

            The good news for Lawrence is that the Jaguars have done a solid job of adding skill position players for him to work with, with the exception of the TE spot (and no that’s not a shot at Tim Tebow, he’s already gone).  At WR, DJ Chark is a physically gifted player who has #1 WR potential with a QB like Trevor Lawrence throwing to him.  Marvin Jones is a strong veteran #2 WR that Lawrence can count on.  Laviska Shenault is a fantastic offensive weapon they need to find ways to use.  RB James Robinson was a fantastic find last year and he can carry the load.  Carlos Hyde was brought in to do some of the short yardage work and take some of the wear and tear off of Robinson.  Travis Etienne was drafted in round one to give Lawrence a familiar face and give this offense a guy with some big play potential.  Unfortunately, Etienne got injured and he’s out for the season.  Calling the TE group non-descript is underselling it, they aren’t likely to help much, Seriously, I’m not even looking up their names.  Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell have their work cut out for them with a suspect offensive line and rookie QB but there is finally some light at the end of the tunnel for Jaguars fans.

            Joe Cullen was hired as Meyer’s defensive coordinator coming over from Baltimore.  The team will transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base like the Ravens and while their will be some growing pains, some of the talent actually fits the new defense better.  Free agent signee Roy Robertson-Harris comes over from Chicago and they traded for Malcolm Brown from New Orleans and both guys have history as 3-4 ends.  DaVon Hamilton should be fine at NT but the team doesn’t have much depth there. 

            Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson were both first round picks and while Allen played well at DE he should be even better as an OLB.  Chaisson was miscast as a DE and has a better shot at becoming useful as a pass rushing OLB.  At ILB the team has Myles Jack, he’s versatile enough to play in any defense so he should be fine.  They traded Joe Schobert, their big defensive free agent from last season, to Pittsburgh and they are slotting Damien Wilson in next to Jack. Wilson gives them a good, athletic player inside, he’ll be fine. 

            The secondary is undergoing quite an overhaul.  The team signed CB Shaquill Griffin and drafted Tyson Campbell and it looked like last year’s top pick, CJ Henderson was on the outs with the new coaching staff.  He may have gotten himself back in their good graces and should be a useful player, for now.  They have veteran Tre Herndon if they need depth.  FS Rashawn Jenkins was signed to give the backend a playmaker.  I don’t know who is starting at SS.  Andrew Wingard or Rudy Ford could get the job but I’m looking at rookie Andre Cisco to eventually take it.  Joe Cullen spent some good years learning in Baltimore but the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 can be rough, luckily there’s really nowhere to go but up for this team.

Houston Texans

            The Texans’ dumpster fire starts at QB.  The team has no idea what is happening with Deshaun Watson.  He’s under criminal investigation for sexual assault, he’s being sued for it, the league is investigating and amongst all that he still wants to be traded.  Yeah, no one is trading for him.  Watson doesn’t trust the owner, no one likes their Executive Vice President of Football Operations, Jack Easterby, and they hired a 65-year-old first time head coach, David Culley, a guy no one else was considering for a head coaching job.  Their new GM is Nick Caserio, he came over from New England and is trying to put a roster together during all of this.  It’s a tire fire, inside of a dumpster, in the middle of a hurricane, during a pandemic (the last part, literally). 

            Tyrod Taylor will start at QB, which probably means this team is going to draft a QB in the top 5 in 2022 and Taylor will lose his job to him.  Watson ends up in Denver, Pittsburgh, Green Bay or prison next year, it’s a pick ‘em.  The team traded DeAndre Hopkins last year for RB David Johnson and then proceeded to sign Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead at RB.  The running game has options.  Brandin Cooks is the #1 WR and they traded for Anthony Miller, who underachieved in Chicago.  They signed Chris Conley and they like rookie Nico Collins, it’s not a great group of receivers, but it’s not the worst part of the team. They aren’t great at TE but rookie Brevin Jordan could be a guy eventually. 

            The offensive line features one of the best LTs in football, Laremy Tunsil.  It’s like having diamond encrusted spinners on a Pinto.  The rest of the line is rough.  Max Scharping is the LG, he’s okay.  They are counting on Justin Britt to resurrect his career at center after being hurt, opting out of last season and trying to come back at 30.  Tytus Howard is supposed to be the RT but the team traded for Marcus Cannon from the Patriots so maybe he starts there and Howard moves inside.  Or Cannon moves inside, except Cannon really isn’t a guard, neither is Howard really.  Roster construction is a bit rough in Houston.  Four RBs, 1 WR, no TEs, two RTs, no RG and Tyrod Taylor is your QB.  Maybe Davis Mills will save the day. 

            If you thought the offense was rough, you might want to skip this next part.  The defense is moving from a 3-4, which they have been for a very long time, to a 4-3 with Lovie Smith coming in as the defensive coordinator (at least they have a ready-made interim when this Culley thing goes bad).  Whitney Mercilus moves from OLB to DE, he’s the best pass rusher they have, that’s not a complement.  They signed Jordan Jenkins from the Jets and he’s moving from OLB to DE and the Jets haven’t rushed the passer in years.  They traded for Shaq Lawson from the Dolphins because he was so bad the Dolphins wanted him gone, he had just as many sacks for Miami as Mercilus had leading the Texans.  Then they shipped Lawson to the Jets.  Maliek Collins starts at one DT spot after a tough year in Vegas.  Journeyman Vincent Taylor gets the other DT spot, they really need to hope Ross Blacklock can rebound after a tough rookie season. 

            At LB, the news is a little better.  Zach Cunningham is extremely productive and Lovie Smith has coached some really good LBs, he should be able to get the best out of Cunningham.  At MLB they traded Bernardrick McKinney in the Lawson deal and signed Christian Kirksey.  Kirksey has had three injury riddled years in a row and it’s hard to count on him giving you much.  If he’s healthy, he’s fine, he’s rarely healthy anymore.  Kevin Pierre-Louis is set to be the other starter, whoever that is. 

            Terrance Mitchell and Bradley Roby were supposed to be the starting CBs until today, when the Texans traded Roby to the Saints.  Desmond King was supposed to be the nickel corner but now he gets promoted to full-time starter.  Mitchell is not great and King is looking to rebound from a few down years after his two good years with the Chargers to start his career. King hasn’t been a full-time starting outside CB since his days at Iowa but this is an opportunity for him to show what he can do.  SS Eric Murray is a solid professional but FS Justin Reid is arguably the best player on this defense (and only Cunningham at his best has an argument).  Reid is coming to the end of his rookie deal and if he plays well, he could bolt in free agency.  Lovie Smith’s career as a head coach hasn’t always been great and it certainly has ended badly in a few spots but he’s an excellent defensive mind.  This defense doesn’t have a lot to work with so he has his work cut out for him but he should get the best out of Cunningham, Reid, King and maybe some others.  For any Texans fans out there just remember these words, With the First Pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select…  

            Tampa Bay returns 22 starters from their offense and defense from last year’s Super Bowl Championship team and they should win this division fairly easily.  They added Giovani Bernard at RB and they get OJ Howard back at TE, the rich get richer.  The Saints actually won the division last year but Drew Brees retired and Jameis Winston is there new QB.  Winston or won’t have Michael Thomas at WR to start the season, that’s a blow.  The offense could struggle to move the ball without him.  Atlanta is hoping Arthur Smith can reinvigorate Matt Ryan at QB and juice up the Falcons offense but I’m not sure Jesus Christ himself could resurrect the Falcons defense.  Carolina hopes Matt Rhule can keep building the Panthers while Joe Brady fixes Sam Darnold to be the QB of the present and the future.  Tampa Bay is the sure thing in this division as long as Tom Brady is healthy.  The rest of the division has far too many question marks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            The Bucs probably have the deepest group of skill position players in the NFL.  They have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Antonio Brown and Tyler Johnson at WR, they have Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn at RB.  Finally, they have Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard at TE.  It’s an embarrassment of riches and it’s made possible by the fact that players want to play with Tom Brady (Gronk, Antonio Brown) and the fact that Brady doesn’t eat up as much cap space as most elite QBs.  The team does have two issues with depth, one is at QB.  If Brady goes down, this team is sunk.  Blaine Gabbert is the backup and Kyle Trask is most likely the third guy. 

            The offensive line is the other place where depth is an issue.  The starters do quite well but if anyone goes down, they are in trouble.  LT Donovan Smith is just a guy, he isn’t elite and he commits too many penalties.  However, he was excellent in the playoffs last season and was penalty free.  LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen, and RG Alex Cappa are solid but unspectacular.  They are aided by the fact that Brady runs the offense so efficiently and gets the ball out quickly. The one star on the line is RT Tristan Wirfs.  He had a fantastic rookie season and he should only get better with more experience.  The one hope for any type of depth is a rookie out of Notre Dame, Robert Hainsey.  He played tackle in college and looks like a guard in the pros but he might just have to fill in anywhere they need him. 

            The defense also returns everyone and that’s a good thing except some of these guys are aging in the front seven.  DL Ndamukong Suh is 34, DL William Gholston is 30, OLB Jason Pierre-Paul is 32, and Lavonte David is 31.  They also don’t have a lot of depth in the front seven.  Suh and Gholston are joined up front by NT Vita Vea, he’s awesome but he’s coming off an injury.  The only depth is Steve McLendon and he’s 35.  Lavonte David pairs with the incredible Devin White at ILB but their only depth is Kevin Minter.  He’s 30 and a serious downgrade athletically.  Pierre-Paul is still getting it done and the team re-signed Shaq Barrett but they had to draft Joe Tryon to find some pass rushing depth.  Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles does a fantastic job but they are walking a fine line on defense. 

            Bowles’ specialty is the secondary and he’s made this group greater than the sum of its parts.  He doesn’t have a traditional #1 CB so he uses Sean Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean in ways to create the best matchups.  All three are bigger CBs and have their strengths, Bowles understands them better than anyone. At safety, he has Antoine Winfield Jr., who stepped in as a rookie last year, and became Bowles’ ultimate chess piece.  Winfield moves all over and just makes plays.  He’s not the biggest or fastest guy out there but he understands offenses and has elite instincts.  FS Jordan Whitehead is another guy that Bowles has coached up and made into an effective defender.  Whitehead is never going to be mentioned with the best safeties in the league but he gets what Bowles wants him to do and he does it. 

New Orleans Saints

            Taysom Hill filled in well for Drew Brees last season but he lost the starting QB job to Jameis Winston.  Hill will return to his jack-of-all-trades position and be weapon for Sean Payton to use all over the offense.  WR Michael Thomas had a year to forget last season and had ankle surgery late in the off season meaning he will miss the beginning of the regular season.  Without Thomas the Saints probably have the worst WR corps in the league.  Tre’Quan Smith is the most accomplished player they have and that’s just sad.  He’s never caught more than 34 passes in a season. They signed Chris Hogan just before training camp and he’s surpassed 34 catches in a season before but he’ll be 34 years old this year and he hasn’t been a useful WR in a couple of seasons. They have high hopes for Marquez Callaway who has mostly been a special teams’ guy but has looked good in camp.  Winston has arm strength that Brees hadn’t had for many years so look for Payton to open things up a bit and go down field to get some space for the running game.  They have high hopes for TE Adam Trautman but he’s banged up to start the year.

            The good news is the team does still have Alvin Kamara at RB and a fantastic offensive line.  Kamara is the do-everything weapon and he has to be the featured part of this offense with Thomas sidelined and Brees retired. They also really like his new backup Tony Jones Jr.  The offensive line is great with LT Terron Armstead, LG Andrus Peat, C Erik McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz and RT Ryan Ramczyk.  The best news is that Armstead is 30 and he’s the oldest one of them all.  No one else is over 28 this season. 

            The defense has been pretty good for the last few years since Dennis Allen came in and took over as coordinator but his coaching acumen will be tested this year.  Cameron Jordan’s play fell off last year as wasn’t the pass rusher he usually is but he is aging and defenses know to focus on him.  It won’t get any easier this year with Trey Hendrickson leaving for Cincinnati and the team needing former first-rounder Marcus Davenport to live up to his billing.  He’s been all potential and hardly any production for three years, he’s looked great in camp but he needs to show it on the field.  They signed Tanoh Kpassagnon from Kansas City but that’s not going to help and they drafted Payton Turner in the first round.  Turner is a project at this point.  At least they have some potential at DE, DT is pretty bleak.  David Onyemata would have started but he’s suspended for the first six games of the year.  For now, it’s guys like Shy Tuttle, Montravius Adams and Malcolm Roach fighting for the starting jobs.  Yeah, I don’t know who they are either.

            Demario Davis returns as the lynchpin of the defense at MLB.  He is 32 so there is some worry that his play may drop off at some point but so far that hasn’t happened.  The team traded for Kwon Alexander last season, he played fine and then tore his Achilles.  He’s back and is already recovered from the injury so he should be good to go.  There two veterans are looking for one of the young guys to step up at the other spot.  They have Zack Baun, Kaden Ellis and rookie Pete Werner, all looking for playing time. 

            The secondary is led by CB Marshon Lattimore, he wasn’t as good last year as he has been his first few years but he’s 25 and should bounce back.  He’s a legit #1 CB when he’s on his game.  The other CB spot was questionable and it became downright terrible when veteran Patrick Robinson announced his retirement a week into training camp.  The best hope is that rookie Paulson Adebo steps up big otherwise it’s between Ken Crawley or recently signed veteran Desmond Trufant, Brian Poole is on IR.  Marcus Williams is a rising safety but he’s on a one-year deal, they have to hope it doesn’t affect his play.  Malcolm Jenkins is an aging veteran they hope can squeeze one more year out for them.  Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is the third safety/nickel back, he’s solid.  This defense has some obvious holes that Dennis Allen is going to have to find creative solutions to fill. 

Carolina Panthers

            The Panthers still aren’t in great shape offensively with a line that looks really rough, a QB who has to prove he wasn’t the problem in his last stop, and their best offensive weapon coming off a major injury.  Sam Darnold had a miserable experience with the Jets and the Panthers hope Joe Brady has enough magic to undo everything Adam Gase did to him.  Darnold has talent, the question is whether or not they can get his head straight, if they do, he has some weapons to work with.  RB Christian McCaffrey is one of the most talented offensive weapons in football.  He’s coming off an injury but given his dedication to working out and his youth, he should bounce back.  WR DJ Moore looks like a legitimate deep threat and he would have been even better last year if Teddy Bridgewater would have looked to throw more than 15 yards down the field at any time.  Also, it helps Moore that he’s not working alone anymore.  Robbie Anderson is a serious threat opposite him and he already has chemistry with Darnold, they played together in New York. Rookie Terrace Marshall Jr is the third guy in what is a very thin WR group.  They hope free agent TE Dan Arnold can prove to be the pass catching threat Ian Thomas has never developed into. 

            The problem on offense is going to be up front.  The team re-signed Taylor Moton to a big deal and he’ll hold down the RT spot.  That’s about the only sure thing.  They hope Matt Paradis can rebound from a rough year last year and man the pivot.  He’s 31 so he’s no spring chicken but he should be alright if he can stay healthy.  The guard positions are up in the air.  It could be Pat Elflein, John Miller, Dennis Daley or rookie Deonte Brown at any of the spots.  That’s not even the worst of it.  At LT the team is looking at journeyman Cam Erving, maybe Trent Scott or if they are really desperate, rookie Brady Christensen.  They traded away Greg Little which really says how far Greg Little has fallen.  I fear this line may undermine Darnold’s comeback and McCaffrey’s rebound year.  They should be scouring the waiver wire for offensive line pickups. 

            The Panthers’ defense is extremely young.  There are no starters over the age of 30 to start the season and only DT DaQuan Jones will reach that age by the end of the year.  Jones comes over from Tennessee as a free agent to add a big body inside next to Derrick Brown.  The defense needs to stop the run and Brown and Jones are some big boys inside.  Bravvion Roy started last year but he’s short and squatty while Jones is much longer.  Roy will fight off Daviyon Nixon for the backup snaps inside.  DE Brian Burns is the star pass rusher and the team needs him to build on his nine sacks from last year.  It would help if he could get some help from the other side.  Morgan Fox should start opposite Burns but Yetur Gross-Matos and Marquis Haynes will try to steal the job. 

            The team needed an upgrade at LB and they signed Haason Reddick from Arizona, he played for Matt Rhule at Temple.  Reddick was a good pass rusher last year for the Cardinals but he’ll be asked to be a more traditional 4-3 LB here.  I would think defensive coordinator Phil Snow would look for ways to use Reddick’s natural pass rush abilities.  Shaq Thompson returns at the other OLB spot and he’s been a steady tackler for years and a guy they can count on.  At MLB it was supposed to be Denzel Perryman, then they traded him to Las Vegas and so it’s Jermaine Carter’s job starting the season. 

            The secondary has rookie CB Jaycee Horn at one spot, he’s the bright spot. SS Jeremy Chinn is a second-year guy who is basically a glorified LB, CB Donte Jackson is getting one more shot to show he’s not a bust and FS Juston Burris has never actually been a full-time starter in six years in the league (for good reason).  Horn has all the components to be a true #1 CB including the ego (I don’t mean that negatively, you have to have it to be a top CB).  Chinn is a playmaker if deployed correctly and I think Rhule and Snow understand what to do with him.  Jackson and Burris are place holders because there isn’t any depth and they spent their draft capital elsewhere.  The defense has potential, it just doesn’t have a lot of production yet. 

Atlanta Falcons

            If you look at the Falcons starting offense, they don’t look terrible if you go two WRs, two TEs, one RB.  If you look beyond that, yikes.  Matt Ryan is aging but he’s still a competent QB and with his contract the Falcons are locked in for at least a couple more years unless he calls it quits.  In the passing game the team traded Julio Jones, that hurts but Calvin Ridley is ready to move up to the #1 spot.  Jones’ age and injury history were going to catch up to him sooner or later (my bet is on sooner).  Ridley has serious potential in the top spot, he’s a top playmaker.  Russell Gage is now the #2 guy, and while I would prefer he was the #3 guy, that’s not happening on this roster.  There is no one of note beyond those two at WR.  Tajee Sharpe had a decent season about five years ago and maybe rookie Frank Darby becomes something.  They seem to like Olamide Zaccheaus, I don’t know who he is.  TE Kyle Pitts was the fourth pick in the draft and while he could line up at WR in some formations, when you move him outside to receiver, you take away the massive mismatch he creates against LBs and safeties in the middle of the field.  The two TE set with Pitts and Hayden Hurst is their best group and new coach Arthur Smith is well-versed in two TE sets but it can limit your offense if you can’t go three wide with Pitts as your TE. 

            The running game was pretty rough last season with Todd Gurley a shell of his former self and no one else to pick up the slack.  They signed Mike Davis to a reasonable contract after his great year replacing the injured Christian McCaffrey in Carolina.  Davis does most things well but isn’t spectacular at any one thing.  He’ll be more consistent than anything they have had in the past couple of years.  The offensive line has to be healthy.  LT Jake Matthews is fine, he’s not great, he’s just fine. The LG spot is still pretty up in air and could go a few different directions.  Matt Hennessey steps in for the departed Alex Mack at center and they need him to fortify that spot.  The right side of the line is where they really need guys to get healthy.  RG Chris Lindstrom could be great, he just has to play if he wants that to happened.  Kaleb McGary is the RT if he can get on the field.  The ceiling for those guys is really high, if they play.  They have a couple of rookies who can compete on the inside, Drew Dalman and Jalen Mayfield.  Dalman is a center by trade but could be a guard, Mayfield was a tackle at Michigan who could play LG or he could have to step in for McGary if he isn’t healthy.  New head coach Arthur Smith has his work cut out for him with this offense, he was used to working with a more stable line unit in Tennessee. 

            Smith talked Dean Pees out of retirement to come back and take over this defense.  Pees has had some great defenses in his career in Baltimore, New England and Tennessee but it’s going to take a miracle to rescue this unit.  Given what he’s done before the Falcons will likely transition to a 3-4, that’s only going to make this harder.  The three-man line should be Grady Jarrett, Tyeler Davidson, and Jonathan Bullard, that’s underwhelming to say the least.  Jarrett has been a playmaker in his career but all three of these guys seem miscast in a 3-4.  Backup Marlon Davidson might be the guy best suited for the new alignment given his time at Auburn next to Derrick Brown.  They should be fine at ILB with Deion Jones and Foye Oluokun, they are tackling machines.  The pass rushing OLB spots are a mixed bag.  Dante Fowler Jr. is built for it but after seven years in the NFL and only one season with double digits sacks it’s time to realize he is what he is and stop expecting more.  The team is hoping for a breakout by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner, Steven Means, or Brandon Copeland at the other spot, that’s a big ask. 

            The secondary is led by AJ Terrell who was solid as a rookie and while it’s hard to call him a #1 CB, he is a good starting corner and nice place to start.  Fabien Moreau comes over from Washington and looks like the other starter and that says more about Isaiah Oliver’s struggles than Moreau’s accomplishments.  Oliver will be the third CB with Kendall Sheffield on IR to start the year.  Neither is a great choice but for now there is no choice.  The Falcons signed Duron Harmon to be one safety.  After years of being a backup in New England Harmon was the starter in Detroit last season and then the Lions decided to rid themselves of as much former New England stuff as they could so Harmon comes to Atlanta.  He’s not great but the Falcons have done worse.  They also signed veteran Erik Harris from Las Vegas and if you’re taking castoffs from the Lions and Raiders secondaries, you really have to ask yourself what you’re doing.  They did draft Richie Grant out of Central Florida and I have to say, I would take him over either starter.  It’s going to be a rough year for the Falcons defense and they are not likely to put the offense in very advantageous positions, things could be ugly in Atlanta this year. 

            This is going to be the most competitive division in the league.  With the expansion of the playoffs to seven teams in each conference there’s a chance this division sends all four teams to the playoffs, it’s unlikely, but it’s possible.  I like San Francisco if they can bounce back from the ridiculous number of injuries they had last year, especially on defense.  The Rams are getting a lot of love but I have concerns about their offensive line and their running game until Sony Michel gets comfortable.  Seattle should have a very potent offense but that defense looks suspect.  As for the Cardinals, they have talent on offense and some guys to work with on defense I just don’t trust that coaching staff (mostly Kliff Kingsbury) to out coach anyone in this division.  It feels like a tight division race between the top three teams and they could end up in any order.

San Francisco 49ers

            The drafting of Trey Lance #3 overall is going to do one of two things; either Jimmy Garoppolo is going to play more than he did last year (he actually wasn’t bad when he was healthy) and he remains the starter, or he will be sitting on the sidelines watching Trey Lance take his job.  Either way, the 49ers will be getting better QB play than they got last year.  Jimmy G isn’t a bad QB, he just never stays healthy, now the 49ers have an actual plan if he’s not available.  The offense should be good with better QB play.  WR Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel aren’t Jerry Rice and John Taylor, but they are pretty good players.  It would be helpful if they find a third guy (sorry but Mohamed Sanu doesn’t count at this point) but it’s not completely necessary in this offense.  TE George Kittle needs to stay healthy, when he’s healthy he’s one of the two best TEs in football. 

            The reason they don’t need a really deep WR corps is because Kyle Shanahan knows how to design a running game.  It starts up front with LT Trent Williams, he’s one of the best in the NFL (and he’s paid as the best in the league).  LG Laken Tomlinson isn’t flashy but he does what they need him to do.  C Alex Mack is aging but he still has some tread on his tires and he should solidify a spot that has had some injury issues over the last few seasons.  RG is Daniel Brunskill’s for now but Aaron Banks may be coming for the job.  RT is manned quite well by Mike McGlinchy.  Shanahan has turned undrafted Raheem Mostert into an ultra-productive RB, the Shanahan running game has been doing that for decades.  Mostert is approaching 30 so it’s almost time for them to cycle in a new guy.  Enter draft pick Trey Sermon, he’s next in line.  San Francisco is a RB factory as long as Kyle Shanahan is running the offense. 

            The defense can’t possibly have as many major injuries this year as they had last year, they hope.  DE Arik Armstead is the only starter on the defensive line who played in 16 games last year.  The other two major pass rushers, Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, played in three games combined.  Bosa is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate if he’s healthy.  Ford is an elite pass rusher if he can get on the field.  DT DJ Jones is an overlooked player while his new partner on the inside, Javon Kinlaw is an emerging talent.  I love Kinlaw. 

            The Niners have arguably the best MLB in football, Fred Warner.  He’s a freak and does everything extremely well.  They have a new defensive coordinator with Robert Saleh off to coach the Jets, it’s former star LB DeMeco Ryans.  Ryans knows just how valuable Warner is and he will know exactly how to deploy him the best way possible. Weakside LB Dre Greenlaw is the next guy to break out for this defense.  He was so good last year the team traded Kwon Alexander during the year just to open up playing time.  The other LB spot is a bit suspect.  Samson Ebukam was signed but there is no guarantee he’s the answer.  Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles and Azeez Al-Shaair are young guys looking to break through. 

            The secondary is where things get a little tough for the Niners.  At CB, they have a bunch of twos and threes but they lack a true #1 CB.  There was a time Jason Verrett looked like a #1 CB but that was about five years and twelve injuries ago.  Emmanuel Moseley is just good enough he’s tough to replace and just bad enough you’re always trying to.  K’Waun Williams is a decent nickel back.  Ambry Thomas is a rookie they like but not enough to stop them from signing Josh Norman late.  The Norman signing is a clear sign of desperation, they need their pass rush to make their secondary look better than it is.  SS Jaquiski Tartt and FS Jimmie Ward return as the starting safety duo.  They are fine but they aren’t great.  The team is so desperate for safety depth they signed Ha Ha Clinton-Dix just to see if he has anything left, he didn’t so they cut him. 

Los Angeles Rams

            The Rams off season is defined by the trade of Jared Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford.  Stafford is one of the more physically gifted QBs in the NFL when it comes to his ability to throw the ball.  Now, after 12 seasons, we will see what Stafford can do for a competent NFL organization.  Sean McVay is the best coach Stafford has played for in his professional career and this team gives him an opportunity to show how good he can be.  Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp give Stafford the best set of WRs he’s had since Calvin Johnson retired and this team also has Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson and rookie Tutu Atwell, that’s a pretty deep receiving corps. Tyler Higbee is a legitimate playmaker at TE and while the depth there is suspect it should be fine.

            The issues arise when you start looking at the offensive line and the running game.  The running game took a major hit when Cam Akers was lost for the season before training camp.  Darrell Henderson is slated to replace him but he was so suspect during camp the team traded for Sony Michel from the Patriots.  Michel is an injury risk too but once he learns the playbook he will take the starting job from Henderson, he’s a better back.  Stafford never had a competent running game while in Detroit and now he’s hoping McVay can piece something together for the year.  The line is what concerns me.  LT Andrew Whitworth will be 40 in December and he missed time last year when he tore his MCL and PCL in his knee, that’s not ideal.  They have no viable backup for him either.  David Edwards and Austin Corbett or underwhelming players at guard and this team needs to protect Stafford.  Brian Allen steps in at center with Austin Blythe departing and he’s not great either.  RT Rob Havenstein is solid but that’s one out of five and that doesn’t make me feel good.  Stafford is going to have to raise the play of the guys around him, at least this time he has a coach who can help him do that. 

            Aaron Donald has been a one-man wrecking crew for the past several years, unfortunately, he’ll have to continue to be if the Rams defense is going to be good.  Donald is an undersized defensive lineman who turned 30 this year so the team needs to get hm some help.  Instead, they traded his long-time linemate Michael Brockers and they are planning on A’Shawn Robinson finally stepping up, a dubious plan if I’ve ever heard one.  The rest of the defensive line options are just as suspect as Robinson and they are counting on Sebastian Joseph-Day at NT.  Last year, Brandon Staley did a wonderful job a scheming up the defense to make it greater than the sum of its parts. This year Staley is the head coach of the other LA team, the Chargers, and they are turning the defense over to Raheem Morris.  Morris has been a good defensive coach in his career but it’s a lot to ask. 

            The LB corps returns Leonard Floyd at OLB and he finally lived up to his potential as a pass rusher, he finally broke double digits in sacks after six years in the league.  If Morris can coax that out of him again, that would be wonderful.  They lost Samson Ebukam on the other side and are counting on either Justin Hollins or Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to step up.  They have options at ILB with Kenny Young, Troy Reeder and rookie Ernest Jones.  They’re pretty non-descript but they do the job. 

            The secondary took some major hits with CB Troy Hill and S John Johnson III leaving in free agency.  They still have arguably the best cover corner in football with Jalen Ramsey.  Ramsey can line up on any WR or TE and never backs down from facing the other team’s top pass catcher.  Darious Williams will line up opposite him and he has to step up because teams will throw his way just to avoid throwing at Ramsey.  They need a nickel back to step up because that was Hill’s specialty and everyone needs three CBs.  Taylor Rapp and Jordan Fuller are two young safeties the team is counting on.  They are talented guys who have always had a veteran or two around to bail them out but now it’s just them.  The good news is Raheem Morris was a secondary coach by trade and he should be able to push their development forward.  The Rams’ defense was the best in the NFL last year and they have a lot to live up to this season.  The offense should help them out more but they can’t afford to take to far of a step back.    

Seattle Seahawks

            As long as the Seahawks have Russell Wilson at QB their offense will be effective.  That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to get better and they made a couple of moves to try to help him.  Wilson made it abundantly clear he wanted offensive line help and the Seahawks mostly ignored him but they did make one significant move, they traded for RG Gabe Jackson.  Jackson just turned 30 so he’s a bit older but he’s still a very good guard and he’s a huge upgrade for Seattle.  He should stabilize a position that has been quite inconsistent for years.  The team hopes Damien Lewis, a second-year guy, can step up at the LG spot and be a consistent player too.  The team needs Brandon Shell to be good enough at RT because Cedrick Ogbuehi starts the year on IR.  LT Duane Brown has been good since he came over years ago from Houston but he wants a contract extension and the team doesn’t want to pay him.  He’ll be 36 soon and there’s reason to believe he won’t last much longer.  You can see why Wilson complains about the offensive line. 

            Wilson can’t complain too much about his skill position talent though.  WR DK Metcalf is an ascending talent and his physical dominance makes him a matchup nightmare. Tyler Lockett is a fantastic route runner and Wilson’s most trusted playmaker.  He isn’t the physical specimen Metcalf is but he beats defenses with his intelligence and innate receiving skills.  They want rookie D’Wayne Eskridge to become a third weapon at WR, they don’t have much else there to count on.  They signed TE Gerald Everett and while no one is going to confuse him for Travis Kelce or George Kittle, he’s an effective player.  He also makes Will Dissly a more helpful player as a second TE instead as the top guy.  RB Chris Carson is back and he can be extremely effective in this offense but he has to stay healthy, he’s really bad at staying healthy.  They don’t have a good backup for him, Rashaad Penny has proven to be a bust.  The rest of the RB group leaves a lot to be desired. 

            The offense is going to have to carry this team because this defense has some major issues.  They have a pupu platter at DE; Carlos Dunlop is 32 and hasn’t had double digit sacks in a season since 2015, LJ Collier has three sacks in two years, Rasheem Green has seven sacks in three years, Kerry Hyder and Benson Mayowa are both better served to be backups.  And that’s the good news on the defensive line.  Poona Ford starts at one DT spot, he’s fine but he’s still undersized.  Somehow, they lost Jarran Reed after inexplicably cutting him and not getting him re-signed.  They signed 34-year-old Al Woods, who opted out of 2020 and he has to be the other starter because there are no other options, there’s just no depth.  Bobby Wagner returns as the heart and soul of this defense at MLB but it feels like he’s working alone.  He’s 31 and not getting any younger, he needs help.  Jordan Brooks started six games as a rookie last year and he has potential but there will be growing pains with him.  At times he looks incredible but sometimes he gets lost.  Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven or someone else will be the third LB. 

            The secondary has its strengths and weaknesses, that’s the nice way to put it.  SS Jamal Adams came over in a trade and recently Seattle gave him his big contract extension.  He needs to play like a star because he’s the best thing the secondary has going for it.  Quandre Diggs should be the starter at FS and while he makes some big plays, he can also give some up.  Marquise Blair is coming off a knee injury and he’s looking for playing time.  At CB, DJ Reed started eight games last year and he probably starts this year.  He’s undersized but his competition is lacking.  The team let Shaquill Griffin leave in free agency and instead signed Ahkello Witherspoon and Pierre Desir hoping one of them can play well enough to be the starter.  They trade Witherspoon after the preseason and cut Desir, not optimal outcomes.  They signed Jets castoff Blessuan Austin and traded for Sidney Jones, dubious moves to say the least.  Tre Flowers is still around but he was demoted last year from his starting role so he has to turn things around if he wants to play.  They drafted Tre Brown in round four hoping to find a mid-round gem like they have in the past, he might start. 

Arizona Cardinals

            Kliff Kingsbury has his QB Kyler Murray, he’s stocked up his WR group, and he’s ready to throw the ball all over trying to win with his pass happy offense.  Murray is a fantastic playmaker at QB and he helps bailout a sometime suspect offensive line and he’s a major part of the running game whether he wants to be or not.  Last year they made the big trade to get DeAndre Hopkins in the theft of the century.  This year they signed an aging AJ Green to replace an even older Larry Fitzgerald on the outside opposite Hopkins.  They also drafted Rondale Moore hoping he can stay healthy and either push Christian Kirk or simply replace him.  Kirk is a favorite of the coaching staff but with Hopkins, Green, and Moore, targets will be hard to come by.  Andy Isabella made the roster as the fifth WR.  The team doesn’t really use the TE spot but Maxx Williams has made himself useful within Kingsbury’s system. 

            The team let Kenyan Drake leave in the off season and Chase Edmonds returns as the new top guy.  Edmonds is a good receiver out of the backfield, making him perfect for this offense.  They did need to find someone to help get the tough yards so they signed James Connor to be their big back.  The offensive line mostly has to worry about pass blocking and they do it fairly well.  Murray’s athleticism and elusiveness come in handy when things break down.  LT DJ Humphries does well on the blindside.  The team traded for Rodney Hudson from Las Vegas at center and while he’s no spring chicken, he stabilizes the inside which was sorely needed.  RT Kelvin Beacham is fine and had arguably his best season last year.  LG Justin Pugh and RG Justin Murray are fine inside and should be better with Hudson playing the pivot.  The offense is certainly counting on some aging players (Green, Hudson, Beacham, Pugh) but also has some good players in their prime.  If all goes well the offense can be fine.

            The defense is a different story.  The team gave JJ Watt $23 million guaranteed over two years after the Texans let him go.  The Texans have made some back decisions but letting Watt go wasn’t one of them.  He hasn’t exactly been the picture of health over the past five years or so, he’s 32 and he hasn’t been an elite player in a while.  The Cardinals needed help up front but they paid a lot for a guy that isn’t guaranteed to give it to them.  For now, he starts opposite Leki Fotu at the other end position with Rashard Lawrence at NT.  That’s not great.  The LB group offers a lot more hope except star OLB Chandler Jones, their most effective pass rusher, wants out of Arizona.  That’s not ideal.  He was hurt last season and their pass rush was subpar.  Markus Golden is the other OLB and he only had 4.5 sacks.  In the middle, they need to figure out how to use Isaiah Simmons, last year’s rookie.  He’s an amazing talent but was poorly deployed in this defense.  They also drafted Zaven Collins in the first round to pair with Simmons inside, hopefully they figure out the best way to use both of them. They may have to use Collins as a pass rusher if Jones gets his way and leaves town.    

            The secondary has one superstar, FS Budda Baker.  He’s one of the best in the NFL and he deserves to play with better players than the Cardinals will have around him.  Jalen Thompson missed most of last year and he returns at SS, he’s not great.  The team has Byron Murphy returning at CB and he’s best suited for the nickel role.  Because of that the team signed 32-year-old Robert Alford, 31-year-old Malcolm Butler and soon-to-be 30-year-old Darqueze Dennard.  Alford is coming off an injury and ended camp on the Covid list, Butler retired for personal reasons and Dennard is starting the year on IR.  It looks like sixth-round rookie Tay Gowan will start opposite Murphy with fourth-round rookie Marco Wilson the third CB.  Even if they get a great pass rush out of Chandler Jones, Markus Golden and JJ Watt, I’m not sure it’s enough to save this secondary in a division against Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Jimmy G and Trey Lance.    

            The Bills went 13-3 last season, finished first in the division, ended the Patriots hold on the AFC East title and they return essentially everyone this year.  Every team in the division besides the Bills should improve but the Bills have quite a lead going into the season so they should repeat.  The Dolphins had 10 wins and that was with some significant issues with their offensive line and their QB play being inconsistent.  If Tua can be consistent without Ryan Fitzpatrick around to bail him out they will be good, if he struggles, they struggle.  The Patriots had seven wins and while that’s hugely disappointing after two decades of success, my take was that it might have been Bill Belichick best coaching job.  The Patriots roster was trash last season, free agent defections (not just Brady), Covid opt outs, and injuries decimated the roster.  The Patriots spent money like drunken sailors in the off season and they get lots of key people back.  They will be in the playoff hunt this year, if they have a QB.  The Jets are still at the bottom but at least now they aren’t anchored to it by Adam Gase.  Robert Saleh, a new coaching staff, and a shiny new QB Zack Wilson gives them hope.  They won’t be great but they won’t be embarrassing either. 

Buffalo Bills

            The offense is under the direction of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll who didn’t get a head coaching job in the off season.  His loss is Buffalo’s gain.  QB Josh Allen raised his game last year and was a legit MVP candidate.  He gets his entire offense back around him with the exception of WR John Brown but the Bills signed veteran Emmanuel Sanders to replace him.  They also really like second-year WR Gabriel Davis so the passing offense shouldn’t miss a beat.  Stefon Diggs was nearly unstoppable last year and he and Allen should scare the hell out of the rest of the league.  Diggs is in his prime and he’s one the best in the league.  They would like TE Dawson Knox to take a step forward and be more productive in the passing game but that would be more of a luxury not a necessity. 

            The offensive line returns intact with a couple of solid developmental additions from the draft to help with depth.  They aren’t flashy up front but they are tough.  The running game could be a bit more dynamic but Devin Singletary and Zack Moss can be a good combination.  Moss is coming off an ankle injury but they like the size and power he gives them.  They did add Matt Breida as a free agent and while he had a rough year in Miami last season, he’s a better veteran option for depth than they had before.  

            The defense is awesome with Sean McDermott and coordinator Leslie Frazier being a great duo when it comes to putting a defense together.  It’s not a team built on star power but they have a few guys who have emerged.  The defensive line is aging on the edges with starting DEs Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison being 33 and 34 this year, respectively.  The team drafted Greg Rousseau and Carlos Basham in rounds one and two this year and are hoping they team with last year’s second-round pick AJ Epenesa to add some youth to the outside.  Epenesa has had a great training camp and preseason and Rousseau has looked good too.  Ed Oliver had a solid year at DT last year and has one spot locked down.  Star Lotulelei returns from a Covid opt out year and regains his starting role.  Vernon Butler becomes solid depth.  If they squeeze some production from the aging guys the Bills should be fine up front. 

            At LB, Tremaine Edmunds has become a force and Matt Milano has proven to be a great running mate for him.  AJ Klein is a solid veteran and while there isn’t great depth, they have good talent.  The secondary is led by Tre’Davious White who has become a legit #1 CB and two solid veteran safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.  They have Levi Wallace as their #2 CB and while they would like to upgrade, they have yet to do so. Taron Johnson is veteran third guy who is dependable.  They have some unproven depth in the secondary and that might be the only weak spot of this defense if there is one.  The Bills should repeat as division champs but it won’t be as easy as it was last season.

New England Patriots

            The Patriots passing offense saw a massive overhaul of its pass catchers through free agency this off season.  WRs Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne were added along with TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.  The only guy who looks like a holdover is Jakobi Meyers.  Now Bill Belichick has made the decision to turn these new offensive toys over to rookie QB Mac Jones.  Jones played better than Cam Newton in the preseason, that’s not really debatable and Newton wasn’t very good in the passing game last year either.  I will say, Newton was given no help last year and much of what was wrong on offense wasn’t his fault.  Granted, if his WR group had been made up of Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison, I’m not sure it would have helped with some of the passes he threw last year.  The Patriots were ready to move on and it is what is best for everyone.  Now Josh McDaniels can run the offense he ran with Brady and he has a QB who’s skill set fits it. 

            The offensive line should be better if they stay a little healthier.  LT Isaiah Wynn has had his share of injury issues but this year the Patriots brought back Trent Brown.  Brown is slated to be the RT but if Wynn’s injury problems continue, at least the Patriots can slide Brown over and cover the spot.  They lost Joe Thuney but with Brown around Michael Onwenu can slide from OT inside to guard.  The team also brought back Ted Karras, he’s an option at OG and also a better option at center if David Andrews has injury issues.  If they can get a healthy season out of a line made up of LT Wynn, LG Onwenu, C Andrews, RG Shaq Mason and RT Brown, they will have one of the better lines in the league.  The running game will be relying on Damien Harris to be healthy, but if he isn’t they drafted Rhamondre Stevenson to be another power back.  James White is back as his usual dangerous self in the passing game.  Because of the emergence of Stevenson and a good preseason by JJ Taylor the team traded Sony Michel for some draft picks. Harris, Stevenson, White, Taylor and most likely Brandon Bolden will be the RB group (Bolden makes it mostly for special teams’ sake).    

            The passing game wasn’t the only place the Patriots spent some money and got major reinforcements.  The front seven on defense got free agent additions and the return of Dont’a Hightower at LB.  Davon Godchaux and Henry Anderson come in on the defensive line while Kyle Van Noy and Matt Judon join the LB corps.  Van Noy can play inside and outside and Judon has proven to be a masterful addition as a pass rusher.  There may not be two better players built for Belichick’s defense than Van Noy and Judon.

            The team also added rookies DT Christian Barmore and LB Ronnie Perkins.  Adding these players to Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, Byron Cowart, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Josh Uche, Chase Winovich and Anfernee Jennings means Bill Belichick has all kinds of combinations he can use up front and competition to even make the roster will be fierce.  Guys like DT Byron Cowart, LB Anfernee Jennings and LB Chase Winovich, all whom played significant roles last season, will be fighting for their roster spots this year.  Even Henry Anderson, who was a free agent pickup, wasn’t guaranteed to make the roster out of camp.   

            The secondary has been excellent for years under Belichick and while there is a major question surrounding Stephon Gilmore, this group should be pretty good.  Gilmore wants a new contract and Belichick is loath to pay aging players.  The team has the depth to lose Gilmore and still be pretty good.  JC Jackson is back on a one-year deal but he’s an emerging cover man.  Jonathan Jones doesn’t have the profile of Gilmore or Jackson but he’s pretty good.  The team signed Jalen Mills and while he’s not purely a CB (he’s a hybrid CB/S) he will get some time at CB if the Patriots need him there.  The team even made a late training camp trade for Shaun Wade, a fifth-round pick of the Ravens who was on their chopping block.  Belichick might be able to work his magic with that kid.  Devin McCourty returns as the backbone of the defense while Adrian Phillips and Kyle Duggar will battle to be Patrick Chung’s successor now that Chung has retired.    

Miami Dolphins

            Surprisingly, quarterback is not at the top of the list of question marks for the Dolphins; offense.  Tua Tagovailoa certainly has to play with more consistency but the Dolphins offensive line and running game are far more suspect than Tua.  The offensive line has some pieces to like but they have to find a combination that works.  LT Austin Jackson struggled as a rookie last year, that’s understandable but he may have looked worse in preseason, he has to figure it out.  The team let Ted Karras leave and they replaced him at center with Matt Skura.  Skura was so bad he couldn’t even win the job from Michael Dieter and they cut him.  They drafted Liam Eichenberg and they have him set to play LG for now but I have to agree with a take I heard from Mike Golic Jr on Mina Kimes’ podcast, just play Eichenberg at LT.  He played LT at Notre Dame and there’s no chance he’s a worse option than Jackson right now, who looks lost.  Robert Hunt and Jesse Davis are holding down the right side for now.  If Solomon Kindley looked legit at LG the Eichenberg move would be easier. 

            The running game won’t go anywhere if they don’t find a solid combination up front but even if they do find the right five up front, the running backs don’t scare anyone.  Myles Gaskin is slated to start and he’s better in the passing game than running the ball.  He just isn’t that dynamic running between the tackles.  Malcolm Brown was signed to add some thump to the running game, he’s a solid guy but again, he’s not scaring anyone and defensive coordinators aren’t staying up late worried about Malcolm Brown.  Where the team did improve was the passing game.  DeVante Parker returns but he’s finally not flying solo.  They drafted Jaylen Waddle in round one and signed Will Fuller.  If those two are healthy they add a boatload of speed to the offense.  TE Mike Gesicki is a good player and the Dolphins drafted Hunter Long from Boston College, a very underrated player who can help them. It’s all up to Tua to make the passing game work, he has the weapons, he just has to get them the ball.  It might be tough with a suspect offensive line and a pedestrian running game but Tua is another year removed from his hip injury so he might have some magic in him yet. He’s starting to look more like the player he was at Alabama before his hip injury.   

            Brian Flores learned under Bill Belichick so he has built his defense in a similar fashion.  They have a front seven with variable pieces so they can use multiple fronts.  Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis and Emmanuel Ogbah aren’t a flashy group up front but they are effective.  Jerome Baker emerged last year as a star at ILB and the team thought they traded for his new partner on the inside when they picked up Bernardrick McKinney from Houston.  However, he didn’t work out and they cut him.  For now, it’s the underachieving duo of Elandon Roberts and Sam Eguavoen fighting it out for the other spot. They drafted Jaelen Phillips to be that game changer on the outside but for now he’s a backup.  Andrew Van Ginkle and Brennan Scarlett will man the OLB spots until Phillips emerges.  

            The Dolphins also build their secondary like Belichick, meaning they are very good on the back end.  CB Xavien Howard led the league in interceptions last year and he can pair with Byron Jones as the best CB duo in the league.  The team signed veteran Justin Coleman because they weren’t satisfied with Noah Igbinoghene’s rookie year.  He’s the nickel guy for now.  Eric Rowe has found a home at safety and Jason McCourty was signed for his experience and he’s moving to safety because rookie Jevon Holland isn’t quite ready for the starting FS job yet.  Holland should help out in nickel situations because he’s a solid inside cover guy while he’s learning.    

New York Jets

            GM Joe Douglas decided to overhaul the coaching staff, much to the delight of every Jets fan who endured the torturous Adam Gase years.  Robert Saleh comes in after leading the 49ers defense and he brings a whole new attitude and new offensive coordinator in Mike LaFleur.  LaFleur is the brother of the Packers head coach and he’s been learning from Kyle Shanahan, expect the Jets offense to be much more competent.  Zack Wilson will be the unquestioned starter from day one and luckily for him the Jets are putting a better supporting cast around him on offense.  The offensive line has LT Mekhi Becton coming off a promising rookie year.  They drafted Alijah Vera-Tucker in round one to play LG.  Veteran RT Morgan Moses was added and is a serious upgrade to that side but he hasn’t won the job from George Fant, last year’s starter.  Not sure if that’s good news or bad news.   C Connor McGovern and G Greg Van Roten aren’t great but you can only upgrade so many spots in one off season. 

            The running game may not have any game breakers but LaFleur has been learning from Kyle Shanahan and the Shanahan’s have been manufacturing running games for decades.  Tevin Coleman, rookie Michael Carter, Ty Johnson and even LaMichael Perine, should be better in this offense. Where the team really upgraded was at WR.  They bring back Jamison Crowder, who was the only real weapon they had last season.  Denzel Mims returns and they hope he can develop. They did go out and add Corey Davis and Keelan Cole in free agency, they both will start and watch out for Elijah Moore.  The rookie looks good and that’s good news for the future.  Wilson will have a far better WR corps than Sam Darnold ever had.  The Jets finally gave up on Chris Herndon at TE and traded him.  Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin aren’t great but they may be more consistent.    

            The Jets biggest problems will be on defense.  Robert Saleh should be able to put something together but he doesn’t have the talent he had in San Francisco.  The Jets have had a pass rushing problem for years and their big off season signing to address it was Carl Lawson.  I wondered about the Jets putting so much belief in Lawson to turn around their pass rushing issues when he’s never had a double-digit sack season but I was willing to give Saleh the benefit of the doubt. Then Lawson tore his Achilles in camp and now they are back to square one at DE.  DT Quinnen Williams is an emerging talent they hope Saleh can cultivate and for now, he’s the only real talent up front.  Veteran Sheldon Rankins is the other DT starter.  At DE, it looks like Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers will start with newly acquired Shaq Lawson working his way in.  At LB, CJ Mosley returns in the middle, that should be very helpful.  He opted out last season so he should be rested up.  Rookie Hamsah Nasirildeen will flank Mosley at one spot, he’s a converted college safety with good size for a safety, he’s an undersized LB.  Jamien Sherwood is the other LB.  

            As tough as things might be in the front seven, they look way worse in the secondary.  FS Marcus Maye is the best player they have and he’s disgruntled because they won’t give him a contract extension.  SS Ashtyn Davis is injured to start the year and might miss the first few weeks, it’s Lamarcus Joyner’s job for now.  The CBs are even worse.  Bryce Hall is slated to be the top CB and he was a rookie last year who missed the first half of the season because he was coming off an injury, the jury is still out on him.  Loved his talent coming out of college but his injury may have compromised him physically.  Blessuan Austin was supposed to be the other starter but they cut him at the end of camp and he signed with Seattle.  Rookie sixth-round pick Brandin Echols seems to have won the job opposite Hall and Javelin Guidry is the nickel back.  No really, his name really is Javelin.  This secondary is rough.