MVP
Contenders: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson
Sleeper: Matthew Stafford
These guys all have one thing in common, they are all QBs. Let’s face it, QBs win the MVP award more often than not. It’s unfair and it’s also unavoidable. The QB is the most important position in professional sports. Derrick Henry ran for over 2000 yards last season and didn’t garner a single MVP vote. This isn’t about how valuable a player is, it’s about how valuable the voters perceive him to be.
Rodgers won the award in a landslide last year and he’ll be damn good this year too. However, it’s hard to win it twice in a row because you’re not just competing against the league, you are competing against yourself from last year. Mahomes has won recently too and will be competing against himself a bit too. Brady won’t put up the stats to really get into the conversation but after winning his seventh Super Bowl, people will be talking about him. Russell Wilson has never received a single MVP vote, still a crazy stat, but he could win it any time. Stafford is finally on a team with real talent and playing for a coach who knows offense. He’s a legitimate threat if the Rams can win the NFC West. Allen feels like the favorite. He broke out last season, finished a distant second to Rodgers but his team is ready to take the next step and he is ready to lead them there.
My Pick: Josh Allen. Too many things line up this year for him. An offense that counts on him but gives him great playmakers like Stefon Diggs. A defense that should help his team be even better. And he will make plays that will wow everyone and make the highlight reels every week.
Offensive Player of the Year
Contenders: All the QBs above minus Brady (he won’t have the stats). RB Derrick Henry, RB Dalvin Cook, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Davante Adams, WR Tyreek Hill
Sleeper: RB Jonathan Taylor
This award usually goes to the best non-QB offensive player since the MVP award usually goes to the best QB. I know, it’s weird, but what are you going to do. The QBs have to have amazing years, like 5000 yards and 50 TD level seasons, to win this award. Henry, Cook and Kamara are fantastic offensive players. Henry is a freak and just run over and through everyone. Cook is a fantastic all-around runner going inside, outside and every way he needs to go to gain yards. Kamara is the runner/receiver threat that keeps defensive coaches up at night. He’s going to be an even bigger part of the Saints offense with Drew Brees retired. Adams and Hill are the two most explosive receivers in the game. I would add DeAndre Hopkins but I just don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. Jonathan Taylor is one of the most talented RBs I’ve ever seen and I watched him for far too many years at Wisconsin. If he gets 300 carries this year, he could lead the league in rushing. The only thing that might stop him is the fact the Colts have Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines to steal some of his touches.
My Pick: Dalvin Cook. Mike Zimmer is going to ride Cook as far as he will take the Vikings. My only concern is Cook gets beat up. He carries the ball and runs as hard as Derrick Henry but he looks half Henry’s size. If Cook holds up, he wins the award.
Defensive Player of the Year
Contenders: DL Aaron Donald, DE Myles Garrett, DE Nick Bosa, LB Darius Leonard, CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Chase Young, OLB TJ Watt
Sleeper: OLB Matt Judon
I dismissed Aaron Donald too quickly last year as he won the award again. I do think TJ Watt had a case and Donald won it because the Rams had the #1 defense. We will see if Donald can do it again. His teammate Jalen Ramsey is still the best CB in the league so he’ll be up for this award too. I still think Myles Garrett will win it at some point but the Browns have to win something and be a better overall defense for him to get noticed. Watt will be back in the thick of the race this year but he’s going to face a tougher time with only Alex Highsmith taking focus on the other side of him. Chase Young was as good as advertised last year winning defensive rookie of the year and now the DPOY award is on his radar. Washington’s defense is good enough to get him noticed too. Bosa is coming back from injury but if he regains his pre-injury form, he’ll be right there for this award too. Leonard is a tackling machine and I like to include a traditional LB. Matt Judon was always a good OLB for the Ravens but now he plays for Bill Belichick. There is no player better suited for Belichick’s defense than the multi-faceted Judon, he can be a star.
My Pick: Chase Young. The Washington defense is going to be fantastic and Young could have 18-20 sacks this year and I won’t be the least bit surprised. I’m pulling for Judon but Young feels like the right choice.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Contenders: RB Najee Harris, QB Trevor Lawrence, QB Zack Wilson, QB Mac Jones, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Davonta Smith, TE Kyle Pitts, WR Ja’Marr Chase
Sleeper: RB Javonte Williams
I’m not including Justin Fields or Trey Lance because they aren’t set to be the starters right away. That doesn’t disqualify them but there are a lot of guys to talk about here so I have to trim the list. Najee Harris is the most likely candidate. He’s going to get the most use out of any rookie and his team is counting on him to be great. Lawrence and Wilson are guys who should put up some stats because they will be on bad teams losing most of the time. Mac Jones is the starting QB on what should be a really good team. That could help him if the Patriots are really good. Waddle could arguably be the top target on his team and so could Smith. Both those WRs are going to put up good numbers. Kyle Pitts has a chance to be outstanding and he has a good QB throwing to him. Chase has not looked good in the preseason but he could flip a switch at any moment. He will be sharing the ball with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd so that could depress his output. Javonte Williams isn’t the starting RB in Denver…yet. That guy is simply too good to keep off the field.
My Pick: I’m going to pick Harris. The Steelers need him too much and will be relying on him a lot. I really, really want to pick Javonte Williams, he could be special.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Contenders: LB Jamin Davis, DE Kwity Paye, LB Micah Parsons, CB Patrick Surtain II, CB Jaycee Horn, S Tre’von Moehrig, LB Zaven Collins, OLB Jaelen Phillips
Sleepers: OLB Azeez Ojulari, CB Asante Samuel Jr
This one is going to be a lot harder to pick a favorite. There is no Chase Young this year, there is no dominant pass rusher to rack up sacks and win this award easily. Kwity Paye is the only edge rusher who is guaranteed to play. Jaelen Phillips hasn’t emerged in Miami and while I really like Azeez Ojulari as a prospect, he may take some time to develop. Jamin Davis will be productive in Washington, that defense is elite, but he will be overshadowed. Patrick Surtain II looks great in camp but he’s got some veterans playing ahead of him still. Horn should be the top CB in Carolina but teams may just avoid throwing at him so he won’t have great stats. Moehrig is going to be on a bad defense in Vegas, he’s good, can he stand out enough? I don’t trust the Cardinals with Collins until they get a new coaching staff. I love Samuel but he’s not the starter yet either.
My Pick: LB Micah Parsons. He’s arguably the best defender for the Cowboys in preseason. He’s awesome and he’s starting right now. He’s going to be really good for Dan Quinn.
Postseason/Playoff Predictions (*Wildcard teams)
NFC
Washington
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
LA Rams
*San Francisco
*Seattle
*Dallas
AFC
Buffalo
Cleveland
Tennessee
Kansas City
*Baltimore
*LA Chargers
*New England
NFC Championship
Green Bay over Tampa Bay
AFC Championship
Kansas City over Buffalo
Super Bowl
Green Bay over Kansas City (Aaron Rodgers either signs a new contract after they win or he retires and goes on to host Jeopardy)
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