I really don’t want to have to talk about this division, it’s a mess.  I’m picking the Saints because they have the best QB in the division and that QB is Derek Carr, that’s tough.  Atlanta is getting a lot of love for some of their off season moves and draft picks and while I love Bijan Robinson as much as anyone, that roster is thin and that offense is counting on Desmond Ridder to overcome some things.  Carolina looked like a mess in the preseason and if their line doesn’t block for Bryce Young, it’s going to be a bad year.  For Young’s sake, I hope they figure it out, he deserves a chance.  I can’t take Tampa Bay seriously with Todd Bowles coaching and Baker Mayfield as their QB. 

New Orleans Saints

            This team might be better than anyone is giving them credit for and it’s because they have Derek Carr at QB.  He’s the only proven starting QB in the division and while there are questions around him, they might have better answers than other teams have for their questions.  Carr have never been an elite QB but he’s always been a little better than he gets credit for. 

            The team actually has talent at the skill positions and it starts at WR now.  Chris Olave had a very good rookie season with some less than stellar QB play.  Pairing Olave’s downfield ability with Carr’s penchant for throwing it deep and they will be a perfect pairing.  Michael Thomas is apparently back after two years away with some sort of ankle injury.  He actually played in a preseason game so that’s a step in the right direction.  If he’s healthy, he’s an amazing #2 WR.  Rashid Shaheed is the third guy and he’s also an awesome deep ball guy so Carr will love him too.  At TE, they have Juwan Johnson, an emerging player, Taysom Hill, the do-everything guy, Foster Moreau, the very good backup, and believe it or not, Jimmy Graham is back.  Graham made the roster after not playing last year, he’s still looks like a red zone matchup nightmare. 

            The running game will rely on Jamaal Williams early in the year because Alvin Kamara is suspended to start the year.  Williams was awesome last year scoring TDs for Detroit; he’ll need to do a little more for at least three weeks.  Kamara is still a talent and they need him to rebound from some subpar years.  Having an actual QB should help him as a pass catcher.  Carr may love the deep ball but he also knows how to dump it off to his RBs.  The offensive line returns four starters; LG Andrus Peat, C Eric McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, and RT Ryan Ramczyk.  Those guys have been a unit for a while.  LT Trevor Penning steps in after missing most of last season with an injury and they hope he’s ready to go.  This line can be very good and if they give Carr time to find Olave, Thomas, Shaheed, and Kamara, they will have a good offense.    

            The defense has been excellent since Dennis Allen came on as defensive coordinator before he took over as head coach.  They continue to be good but they are getting a little older in some key spots and need some young guys to step up.  Cameron Jordan is still their best defensive lineman but he’s 34 and his production is slipping.  Carl Granderson is the other starter, he’s not great but not terrible.  They need Payton Turner and Isaiah Foskey to turn into real players.  At DT they have Nathan Shepard and Khalen Saunders, two veterans who don’t move the needle but get the job done.  Rookie Bryan Bresee is the guy who could really make a difference. 

            At LB it’s still Demario Davis holding down the middle.  He’s also 34 but he’s still getting it done.  He’s flanked by Pete Werner on one side, he’s solid but not spectacular yet.  The other side is Zack Baun who hasn’t done much.  They don’t have much depth. 

            The secondary can be very good.  CB Marshon Lattimore is still a legitimate #1 while Paulson Adebo has become a pretty good second CB.  Alontae Taylor needs to step up as the third corner.  At safety, Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye are still getting it done.  They may not be the playmakers they were when they were younger but they are smart and don’t get beat easily.  This defense can keep this team in games unless the older guys really fall off.  They may only have this year before that happens. 

Atlanta Falcons

            I’m not on board with everyone who is jumping on the Falcons bandwagon as the best team in this division.  The idea that Arthur Smith is building some “positionless” offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts is premature.  Last season the offense was hamstrung by Marcus Mariota’s inability to throw a football because of his nerve issue in his elbow and they still took forever to go to Desmond Ridder.  I like Ridder more than some but that’s still worrisome.  Ridder is no sure thing and he’s not really surrounded by tons of talent. 

            As far as pass catchers go, Drake London was a top ten draft pick and Kyle Pitts was a top five pick at TE but beyond them, it’s really thin. If they played RB Bijan Robinson as a full-time WR he would be the second best WR on the roster.  Beyond London, it’s Scotty Miller, KhaDarel Hodge, and Josh Ali, that’s not a great depth chart.  London and Pitts weren’t exactly lighting up last year in Smith’s offense and while Ridder is better than Mariota, he’s not Patrick Mahomes.  This team is going to need their two TE sets with Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith to come through or this offense is going to be hurting. 

            The running game should be elite.  The offensive line is good and they have a generational RB in Bijan Robinson.  Robinson is a great runner with vision, balance, power, and speed.  He’s an elite talent who can catch the ball out of the backfield too.  He will be the focal point of the offense but he will also be the focal point of every opposing defense.  Tyler Allgier is a good backup and should get some carries too.  The offensive line returns LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, and RT Kaleb McGary.  Lindstrom became the highest paid guard in the league this off season and McGary got a nice new contract too.  The one change is rookie LG Matthew Bergeron coming in from Syracuse.  They hope Bergeron can solidify the LG spot that has been a bit of an issue the last few years.  This is a good offensive line that at times plays great.

            To say this defense is in transition would be a major understatement.  Long-time NFL defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired and Arthur Smith hired Ryan Nielsen off the Saints staff to replace him.  It’s going to be a big change and there’s a lot of new faces.  Starting up front the team signed Calais Campbell and David Onyemata to play alongside Grady Jarrett.  Campbell has been a great player at times but he’s 37.  He’s still a giant human though and this front needed talent.  Onyemata takes over the NT spot after playing DT in New Orleans.  He’s not the biggest NT but he’s a tough player.  Jarrett finally gets some help up front.  It feels like he’s been playing by himself up front for years.

            The signings of Campbell and Onyemata at first looked like the Falcons might move to a 4-3 base defense but then their LB signings seemed to end that notion.  They have the ability to play multiple fronts now but signing Bud Dupree at OLB and Kaden Elliss at ILB means they are still set up for a 3-4 defense.  Dupree is a pass rusher from the OLB spot to pair with Lorenzo Carter and backed up by Arnold Ebiketie.  Ellis joins Troy Anderson inside and all of this should improve the defense overall.  Dupree is a bit of a wildcard given his injury history but Elliss was very good in New Orleans last season and Dupree, Carter, and Ebiketie should make a nice rotation at OLB. 

            The secondary starts with CB AJ Terrell, he’s one of the best cover corners in the game.  Teams avoid his side of the field and the team needs to find him help.  They are taking a chance on Jeff Okudah, who they traded for from Detroit, after he finally had a solid year.  After being injured most of his first two years, Okudah played in 15 games last season and was fine.  Fine would be an improvement opposite Terrell after the last few seasons in Atlanta.  The team also spent major money on safety Jessie Bates III to stabilize the back end. They hope having Bates steady play at FS will improve Richie Grant’s play at SS and the backend overall. 

Carolina Panthers

            This team looked bad during the preseason but I’m going to overlook that and assume they will be a little better when the games actually count.  The offensive line was not good in the preseason and that’s a major problem if it continues because Bryce Young can’t take a beating, he simply won’t last long without good protection.  Let’s chalk that up to a new offense and the line trying to work out the kinks.  This team will go as far as Bryce Young takes them, that won’t be very far this season but they shouldn’t be as bad as they looked in the preseason. 

            Young doesn’t have a cadre of weapons at his disposal, at least not great ones anyway.  Adam Thielen is a professional WR who can still get open and move the chains but he’s not a dynamic weapon by any means.  DJ Chark was once a dynamic player but injuries have made him less so at this point.  Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo looks the part at 6’2 220 lbs. but he’s still a rookie.  The team was so desperate for a playmaker they traded for Ihmir Smith-Marsette from Kansas City after he had a good preseason.  Smith-Marsette has bounced around in his career because he generally makes some dumb mistakes, but he’s a playmaker if you get the ball in his hands.  TEs Hayden Hurst and Ian Thomas are solid move the chain guys but aren’t scaring anyone.

            The offensive line was quietly good last year once LT Ikem Ekwonu settled in as a rookie.  They looked bad in the preseason but o-line coach James Campen is a good one and I think he gets them settled in. It’s a new offense with a lot of new ideas coming together and it may take them a minute.  LG Brady Christiansen, C Bradley Bozeman, and RT Taylor Moton all return with Ekwonu.  Their familiarity with each other should help.  RG Austin Corbett is injured so for now it’s rookie Chandler Zavala starting.  That’s going to be the issue, can Zavala hold up?  The running back is free agent signee Miles Sanders.  He’s a solid player who had a good year in Philly last season but he’s more the steady type than the game breaker.  This team needs Bryce Young to create the big plays because the skill group isn’t going to do it. 

            The defense has some good players and now they have a top-level coordinator calling the plays.  Frank Reich hired what should be an excellent staff on both sides of the ball but his best hire was defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero.  Evero was a master last year in Denver and he has some pieces to work with here.  Up front the line should be built around Derrick Brown.  Brown is one of the most physically imposing players in the league and while he hasn’t always been his best self, Evero should bring it out of him.  Shy Tuttle and DeShawn Williams are the other starters and they aren’t great but they’re serviceable. 

            This defense will go as far as the LBs take them.  Brian Burns had a breakout year last year and now he moves to OLB in Evero’s defense and he could be even better.  He can be an elite player and this is his best chance.  They didn’t have another legitimate pass rusher opposite Burns so they signed veteran Justin Houston.  Houston is 34 but he’s still getting it done and he’s better than Yetur Gross-Matos or Marquis Haynes Sr.  Inside it’s veteran stalwart Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu.  Luvu was solid last year, they’re a solid duo. 

            The secondary has some of the fun pieces for Evero to use.  CB Jaycee Horn played most of last season after recovering from an injury and he has the potential to be a CB1 another year removed from that injury.  Donte Jackson will make a nice CB2 opposite Horn if Horn can ascend.  The safety spot gets a veteran upgrade with SS Vonn Bell.  He comes in and pairs with FS Xavier Woods to be a steady pair in the middle of the back end.  The other thing he does is frees Jeremy Chinn from being a full-time safety.  Chinn is the nickelback here and that will allow Evero to find ways to use him all over.  Chinn doesn’t fit a traditional defensive role but his size and athleticism allows him to do many things. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            If this team had an option better than Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at QB I might have picked them to win this division.  That’s just how volatile this division might be and how little I think of Baker Mayfield winning the starting job.  I have zero confidence in Mayfield’s ability to run this offense on the field and zero confidence in his ability to lead this team in any way.  I’m not sure why but he’s just never been able to command a team the way a QB really should. 

            There is plenty of talent going to waste on this offense if Mayfield plays down to my expectations.  Mike Evans is still one of the scariest deep-ball threats in the NFL.  Chris Godwin is another year removed from his injury season and he’s always a catch monster.  While they lost third receiver Russell Gage to an injury rookie Trey Palmer is an intriguing player who might be a better pro than he was a college player.  He was limited at Nebraska due to QB issues, unfortunately I’m not sure that’s improved for him here.  TE Cade Otten isn’t anything special but he’s fine. 

            The running game goes from Leonard Fournette to Rachaad White.  White has some pop and he has a good overall skill set.  The problem for him will be the offensive line he’ll be running behind.  I have no doubt that Tristan Wirfs will go from being one of the best RTs in the in the NFL to one of the best LTs in the NFL very quickly.  He’s a fantastic athlete with elite strength and ability.  Surprisingly, Luke Goedeke made the move to RT from inside during the preseason and looked solid.  That’s the good news, the bad news is the interior of the line.  C Ryan Jensen was lost to IR for the year already, Robert Hainsey replaces him.  Hainsey isn’t bad but he’s not Jensen and it weakens the pivot.  Rookie Cody Mauch gets the RG spot and while I love his potential, he’s a rookie playing between a new RT and an okay center.  LG will be manned by Matt Feiler, a free agent from the Chargers.  There’s a reason the Chargers let Feiler go, he had an awful year last year.  Pressure up the middle is going to make Baker Mayfield uncomfortable and it’s going to compromise the running game. 

            While I have serious questions about Todd Bowles as a head coach, he’s always been a great defensive mind.  This defense is in a transition from some of its older players to its younger group of recent draft picks and free agents.  Up front, rookie Calijah Kancey should take one of the DE spots outside of Vita Vea. Vea is arguably the best NT in football and Kancey is an undersized disruptor who needs Vea’s size to offset his lack of size.  They hope former second round pick Logan Hall can take the other DE spot but they signed former Ram Greg Gaines just in case Hall isn’t up for it. 

            The LBs still feature veteran Lavonte David but the marriage between David and the team could end any time given his age.  His leadership is still important especially after he helped the team smooth over contract issues with Devin White.  White is the future at the LB position here but the team hasn’t extended him and it’s caused issues.  At OLB Shaq Barrett is still the best bet to be the playmaker but he’s coming off injury and he’s 30.  Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is the guy they hope can break out; it hasn’t happened yet.  Anthony Nelson gives them a young veteran they count on in a backup role, they may need to expand his role. 

            The secondary has talent but is also in a bit of a transition.  Jamel Dean was re-signed to a new contract and he pairs with Carlton Davis III at CB to make a nice duo.  They lost Sean Murphy-Bunting who had made them a nice trio and now they need a new guy for when they go into the nickel, for now it’s Dee Delaney.  At safety, Antoine Winfield Jr. is fantastic but they are counting on career backup Ryan Neal coming over from Seattle to be the SS. Winfield covers for a lot of issues but not only is Neal not proven starter, they have little depth.  Rookie free agents Kaevon Merriweather and Christian Izien are the only other safeties on the roster.        

This division is Jacksonville’s for the taking.  Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the division and leads the best unit in the division, the Jaguars offense.  However, if the Jags defense lets them down, Mike Vrabel and the Titans will almost assuredly be better than we all think they will be because Vrabel is just that good of a coach.  I’m not sure Houston or Indianapolis will be good but there’s a chance neither of them is as bad as we might think.  The Texans got their two cornerstone guys in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson while the Colts have their lottery ticket in Anthony Richardson.  Jim Irsay’s inexplicable handling of the Jonathan Taylor situation is going to make things more difficult in Indy for Richardson. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

            This team took a major step last season largely because of their massive upgrade at head coach with Doug Pederson replacing Urban Meyer.  Having an actual NFL head coach running an actual NFL style offense with a legitimate offensive coordinator (Press Taylor) really allowed Trevor Lawrence to show what he can be.  He just scratched the surface last season and another year in the system with more help on offense could really unleash his potential. 

            Lawrence made the most of what he had last year with pass catchers like Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram having career years.  All of those guys are talented players who were finally being used to their full potential under Pederson but the offense was missing that one big play threat, enter Calvin Ridley.  Technically Ridley joined the Jags last year during the season in a trade but he suspended for the year due to gambling.  Now, he’s returned to football after almost two years off (he missed the season before for Covid related reasons).  When Ridley last took the field in Atlanta for a full year, he was an excellent WR and was ready to be a true #1 WR.  He and Trevor Lawrence have looked good together in preseason and this should scare opponents of the Jaguars. 

            The running game is in the hands of Travis Etienne who had a good year last year after missing his rookie year with an injury.  He’s got electric speed and while he wasn’t great catching the ball last year, he was fine.  His one area of concern was he didn’t score many TDs and the team addressed this issue by drafting Tank Bigsby.  I wasn’t a huge Bigsby fan coming out of the draft but he can be solid in this backup role.  The offensive line must play better and they start the year with LT Cam Robinson suspended for six games.  Walker Little steps in there and I think he’ll do well.  I’ve never been a Robinson fan but he’s been solid, I like Little’s upside.  LG Ben Bartch is nothing special and RG Brandon Scherff is 31 and his age is starting to show.  He’s not the dominant player he once was and they need him to be solid.  C Luke Fortner was a rookie last year and played pretty well.  Rookie RT Anton Harrison will step in with Robinson out and he’s looked good in the preseason. If the line gives Lawrence time and Etienne room to run, this offense can be great. 

            The defense needs to play better.  They were not great last year and they didn’t really get reinforcements this off season.  The team is counting on some young guys to step up their play and they need a couple of guys to have break out years.  Their three-man front has Folorunso Fatukasi and Roy Robertson-Harris with a bit of a question mark in the middle because Devon Hamilton starts the year on IR.  Angelo Blackson probably gets the call at NT. 

            The LB group is where they need real improvement if they want this defense to make a difference.  OLB Josh Allen was the seventh overall pick in 2019 and he’s never been a true difference maker as a pass rusher.  It’s time for him to be that or it’s time to move on.  He needs some help from Travon Walker, the #1 overall pick from last year who had an uninspiring first year.  Walker was changing positions so there’s still reason for optimism that he can be better, but they need it now.  They still have former first round pick K’Lavon Chaisson for some reason, he’s always been a disappointment.  ILB Devin Lloyd was a first rounder last year who started the year solid and then had some rookie struggles.  Foyesade Oluokun was a former free agent splash who is a very productive LB.

            The secondary returns all four starters and I’m not sure that’s a good thing.  They are led by CB Tyson Campbell who could be a #1 CB but he’s just not quite there.  That’s what a lot of this defense feels like, just not quite there.  Darious Williams was a solid second CB and he’s back too.  Tre Herndon looks like the nickel guy.  Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins are decent as the safety tandem, that’s about the best I can give them.  The offense is going to have to put up points to overcome this defense unless Allen, Walker, Lloyd, Campbell, and maybe Cisco really break out as top players this year. 

Tennessee Titans

            The Titans drafted Malik Willis in the third-round last year and then drafted Will Levis in the second round of this last draft and yet Ryan Tannehill is still the starter in Tennessee.  Mike Vrabel just can’t quit him.  Vrabel isn’t the type of guy to want to rebuild, or reset, or re-anything, he wants to win, even if it only means you’re winning nine games tops.  Tannehill can win nine games with Derrick Henry running the ball and a good defense.

            Tannehill has one of the least inspiring pass catching groups on paper but there is potential.  DeAndre Hopkins was a late add this off season when he took the money the Titans were offering over his other options.  Hopkins hasn’t been the picture of health the last few years in Arizona and he’s 31 so it doesn’t get easier.  He can still be useful but he’s not likely to be a dominant player any more.  Treylon Burks looked like a rookie a lot last year but he’s still a talented guy.  In a more dynamic offense, he might be a more dynamic player but he is what he is in Tennessee.  TE Chig Okonkwo is a very athletic player who has a chance to be a breakout player this year.  This isn’t going to be a high-flying offense but they need to at least be a little threatening to keep teams from loading the box. 

            The offense still revolves around Derrick Henry.  With the exception of the year he missed half the season with an injury, Henry has been a monster in this offense.  Even with almost 350 carries last year he ended up nearly doubling his career high in catches too and being an even bigger part of the offense.  He’s 29 and could fall off the cliff at any time but you could lose a lot of money betting on that.  They did draft Tyjae Spears who might finally be a talented enough runner to take a little bit off Henry’s plate.  The offensive line was abysmal last season and I’m not sure their changes are going to help.  LT Andre Dilliard takes over, he couldn’t win the job in Philly for a reason.  Daniel Brunskill gets the RG job, he’s not great.  Aaron Brewer is a holdover at center, he’s average at best.  RT Nicholas Petit-Frere is suspended to start the year leaving journeyman Chris Hubbard starting.  Rookie Peter Skoronski looks like the only sure thing at LG, he’s a rookie and he’s the best lineman they have. 

            Mike Vrabel’s defense should be good.  They signed a few free agents to help shore up the defense in a couple of weak areas.  One place they aren’t weak is up front.  Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL and Denico Autry is one of the more underrated ones.  They flank Teair Tart, Tart isn’t one of the bigger NTs in the league but he’s still pretty good.  Simmons is the disruptor up front and makes everyone’s job easier. 

            Harold Landry III had a breakout year last year with 12 sacks and that’s the type of production they need from him.  He didn’t have much help in the sack department from the rest of the OLB so the team signed Arden Key hoping he could give a little juice.  They also grabbed Trevis Gibson from Chicago after cut down day this year.  Neither Key or Gibson have had great sack numbers but they are guys who can get some pressure.  ILB is being turned over to Azeez Al-Shaair, a free agent from San Francisco, and Jack Gibbens, a rookie free agent from last year.  Al-Shaair was overshadowed in San Fran with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw being awesome all the time.  He’s a good LB and they need him to be with a guy as green as Gibbens next to him. 

            The secondary features some good CBs who have never quite been great CBs.  Kristian Fulton is really good but not quite elite and Roger McCreary was pretty good as a rookie last year.  They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting from Tampa Bay to give them more depth.  It has hurt them that former first round pick Caleb Farley has never been healthy enough to fulfill his full potential.  He’s dealing with a family tragedy from this off season so he’s not a factor at the moment.  Kevin Byard is still one of the better free safeties in the league even if he isn’t as great as he once was and doesn’t get the recognition he deserves.  SS Amani Hooker is a valuable versatile defender who is really coming into his own as a pro. 

Indianapolis Colts

            The Colts aren’t going to be very good this year but they should be fun to watch as Anthony Richardson just becomes their offense.  The Jonathan Taylor saga means even more will fall on Richardson’s plate.  The passing game is going to be pretty rudimentary while Richardson gets used to playing QB against NFL teams but Shane Steichen will rely on Richardson’s legs to keep the offense moving. 

            The pass catching unit has some solid players but no major play makers.  Michael Pittman Jr. is a good player and would probably be pretty good with an elite passing QB but Richardson isn’t that right now.  Alec Pierce is a good downfield target in theory but we really haven’t seen that in reality so far.  Isaiah McKenzie is a decent pro but he underwhelmed last year with Josh Allen as his QB.  Josh Downs is a rookie who could be quite good in the slot.  Mo Alie-Cox is a potential good TE but good is probably his ceiling.

            The running game goes into the tank with Jonanthan Taylor starting the season on the PUP list.  Zack Moss is coming off a broken arm in training camp and he’s the listed starter with Deon Jackson as the backup, that’s not good.  The offensive line was awful last year and having an athlete like Richardson behind them instead of a statue like Matt Ryan will help but Richardson is also inexperienced so that won’t help.  They are counting on LT Bernhard Raimann to be a full-time starter in his second year, he needs to make a leap if that’s going to work.  Quentin Nelson is arguably the best guard in football when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last year, they need him to be this year.  C Ryan Kelly is still fine but he just turned 30 so that’s something to watch.  Will Fries was less than good at RG, that might be why RT Braden Smith had a subpar year.  He should rebound but there is no guarantee.

            The Colts lack an elite pass rusher on the edge, they have Kwity Paye, who is a good DE but not a high-end pass rusher.  They have Dayo Odeyingbo who had a solid year last year and is another year removed from an injury, they hope he develops more.  They signed veteran Samson Ebukam to give them some depth.  Their real pressure player is DT DeForest Bruckner who they got a couple of years ago from San Franscisco.  He’s a beast on the inside and really knows how to push the pocket.  Grover Stewart plays next to him inside, he’s a solid pro. 

            The LBs were in trouble last year because Shaq Leonard was hurt and you simply can’t replace Shaq Leonard.  Zaire Franklin is a good player but he’s a better player when Leonard is playing next to him.  EJ Speed is a bit bigger than Leonard and Franklin and gives them a different look.  This defense has been built around Leonard and his freakish playing speed, when he’s out, they just aren’t as good. 

            The secondary is going young at CB.  They have Kenny Moore as their nickel guy and he’s the only one with any real experience.  JuJu Brents is set to start as a rookie with fellow rookie Jaylon Jones backing him up.  The other spot has two second-year guys Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr.  It could be a long year for this group as they get thrown into the fire.  Safety is handled by Julian Blackmon at strong safety and Rodney Thomas II at free.  Blackmon is developing nicely but these guys are in for a tough year with the youngsters outside. 

Houston Texans

            There was a part of me that thought the Texans offense might not be as bad as everyone though it would be, then the offensive line fell apart at the end of training camp and, well, it’s going to be ugly.  QB CJ Stroud is a good player who can run this offense at a high level if the rest of the unit was better but for now, he’s just going to have to try to survive. 

            This offense comes from the Shanahan tree as DeMeco Ryans brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco.  Hopefully they can institute that type of running game to try to help ease the burden on the offensive line and on Stroud.  Dameon Pierce is an excellent RB and he can carry a heavy load.  They also have Devin Singletary for depth, that could prove crucial.  The offensive line was looking good and they still are at a few spots.  LT Laramy Tunsil is one of the better LTs in football.  RT Tytus Howard isn’t elite but he gets the job done.  The team traded for Shaq Mason to solve their RG issues and he should be solid.  The problem is that they were hoping second-year LG Kenyon Green would take a step in his development but he’s now out for the year with shoulder surgery.  They drafted Juice Scruggs in round two to solve their center issues and he’s out to start the year leaving sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson to step in.  Having a sixth rounder replace your second rounder is bad enough but they ended up taking Kendrick Green off the Steelers scrapheap to replace Kenyon Green, that’s a massive downgrade. 

            They need the running game to carry the load because this is one of the least impressive pass catching units you’ll find in the league.  Nico Collins is probably their #1 WR by default.  Collins isn’t a bad player he’s just not the guy you want being your WR1.  Robert Woods was signed to bring a veteran presence, that’s about all he brings.  Noah Brown was also signed for some reason.  They have to hope their younger guys develop quickly.  Tank Dell is a rookie, John Metchie missed his rookie year with cancer so he’s basically a rookie and they can hope Xavier Hutchinson outplays his sixth-round draft slot.  TE Dalton Schultz isn’t a game breaker but he does give Stroud a reliable target. 

            I look at the defensive depth chart and it doesn’t look as bad as I thought it would.  The team traded back up in round one of the draft to get Will Anderson.  They have taken a lot of criticism for that move but Anderson is a cornerstone player, he sets the tone for the defense, and he gives DeMeco Ryans someone to build around.  Anderson may never be a 15-18 sack guy but he’s a good edge player and he and Jonathan Greenard should generate pressure.  They also have the ageless wonder Jerry Hughes as a rotation guy.  Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins are solid NFL DTs, there are plenty of teams with guys worse than them starting. 

            The LB group is in transition.  Denzel Perryman was brought in to be a stabilizing force in the middle.  He’s bounced around in his career but he’s always a solid player.  Christian Harris is a young guy with some athleticism who needs more reps to get better, they hope.  For now, veteran Blake Cashman has the other spot. Cashman is fine but he isn’t great. 

            The secondary has two young guys with really high ceilings.  CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the most talented players at the position.  He needs to stay healthy so he can get the reps he needs to reach his potential.  FS Jalen Pitre is the other young guy with massive potential.  He could be one of the better safeties in the game especially playing in DeMeco Ryans defense.  Steven Nelson starts at the other CB, he’s a solid veteran.  They signed Jimmy Ward from San Francisco to be the quarterback of this defense.  He was a guy they used all over for the 49ers and now he’s here to help the young guys learn Ryans’ defense.  He will have a big influence on Pitre and probably Stingley too.       

            This is a two-team race with the 49ers and Seahawks both talented but flawed in their own ways and the Rams and Cardinals just waiting on the 2024 NFL Draft order to be decided.  He cult of Brock Purdy is strong in San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan is determined to prove he can win with any QB.  Trey Lance is already out so it’s Purdy at QB and Sam Darnold in the wings if he faulters.  Geno Smith leads the Seahawks who look a lot like last year’s Seahawks.  They are counting on some rookies to improve their fortunes and a new defensive line; they needed that change.  The Rams are a bunch of older beat-up guys on offense and a ton of people you’ve never heard of on defense.  The Cardinals are just hoping the Texans are as bad as they are so they can get two top five picks in the draft, hello Caleb Williams. 

San Francisco 49ers

            The 49ers are considered one of the favorites in the NFC but they do have some serious questions and they are going to be in a dogfight with Seattle for the NFC West.  The year started with the 49ers saying Brock Purdy was fine and would be the starting QB but no one wanted to believe them.  Well, Brock Purdy’s elbow seems to be fine and the team traded Trey Lance so it’s clearly Brock Purdy’s team. 

            Purdy will work with one of the best collections of skill position talent in the NFL.  The offense is led by RB Christian McCaffrey who is arguably the best RB in the league and plays for the best offensive play caller in the NFL, head coach Kyle Shanahan.  McCaffrey is an elite talent and the only question is how much work do you give him in order to keep him healthy all year.  They have Elijah Mitchell at RB so they don’t have to overwork McCaffrey.  WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are dynamic after-the-catch play makers who can line up anywhere.  That works well with McCaffrey who can line up like a WR while one of them shifts to the backfield, it makes matchups a nightmare for opposing defenses.  TE George Kittle is one of the best TEs in the league and he does a bit of everything.  He can be a tough matchup over the middle, he can block in the running game, and he can beat guys deep down the seam.  Purdy learned to count on him in important situations and he always delivered.  This is also the one team where I have to mention the fullback, Kyle Juszczyk is also a diverse weapon they can deploy all over the formation.  It’s a tough offense to get a handle on and Shanahan is a master at creating advantageous matchups. 

            The offensive line is where things could get dicey for the 49ers even though Shanahan can usually scheme his way out of it.  This offensive line group might be more of a challenge than usual for Shanahan.  LT Trent Williams is not a question, he’s arguably the best LT in football and maybe the best offensive lineman in football, he’s awesome.  LG Aaron Banks is fine, he played last year and wasn’t a problem.  C Jake Brendel became the starter last season and he acquitted himself quite well.  The issues could be on the right side of the line.  Spencer Burford won the starting RG job as a rookie last year and then struggled a bit.  The team rotated in Daniel Brunskill last year but he’s gone now and they only have Jon Feliciano to backup Burford.  If he struggles, it’s going to hurt.  The bigger problem is RT, Mike McGlinchy was too expensive to re-sign and they are giving Colton McKivitz first crack at the job.  He played well at LT in the last game of last season but he’s an unknown quantity.  If the whole right side struggles it’s going to hurt this offense.  Brock Purdy will have to get the ball out quick to mitigate some of the offensive line inconsistency. 

            The defense has been fantastic for years, first under Robert Saleh and then under DeMeco Ryans, but they didn’t have a natural successor to Ryans on staff so Shanahan hired Steve Wilks.  Wilks has been a very good defensive coordinator in his career but this is a different thing here.  Also, he may not have Nick Bosa to start the year as Bosa is in a contract holdout right now and there’s no telling when it ends. 

            The defensive front takes on a different look without Bosa coming off the edge.  Bosa is an elite pass rusher and without him it’s second-year man Drake Jackson and Raiders castoff Clelin Ferrell for now.  Jackson is talented but he’s more potential than production.  Ferrell flamed out with the Raiders and came to San Francisco to see if defensive line coach Kris Kocurek could resurrect his career.  They need Bosa.  DT Arik Armstead is still excellent and they signed Javon Hargrave to a massive deal for the other DT spot, that was because Javon Kinlaw has not lived up to his draft position. 

            The LB corps is led by the best MLB in football, Fred Warner.  Warner is an absolute freak when it comes to being not only the best tackler in the game but he’s equally adept in coverage, that’s rare.  Dre Greenlaw gets overshadowed by Warner but he’s excellent and as long as he stays healthy, the 49ers have arguably the best LB duo in the game.  Oren Burks is penciled in as the third guy; he’s not going to be on the Warner/Greenlaw level but he just has to be serviceable. 

            CB Charvarius Ward has proven to be an excellent free agent signing as he’s a legitimate top CB and he’s in his prime right now.  The team found a steal in former fifth round pick Deommodore Lenoir who became a starter last year and looks pretty solid opposite Ward.  Another fifth-round pick from the same 2021 draft was SS Talanoa Hufanga, he had a breakout year last year and he’s a force.  The team is looking to replace Jimmy Ward with Tayshaun Gipson Sr. and while that’s definitely a downgrade, this defense should be able to sustain it. 

Seattle Seahawks

            If Nick Bosa misses time or the right side of the 49ers offensive line can’t hold up, the door is open for the Seahawks to win the NFC West.  The team pivoted from the Russell Wilson era to Geno Smith and they flourished.  They still have some issues on offense and some questions on the defense but they are going to be good this year.  Geno Smith finally got another chance to be a starter and he didn’t squander it.  The team gave him a three-year contract and he’s back to keep the offense running. 

            This offense has some elite weapons.  WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are a fantastic duo and the team added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft.  JSN was the first WR taken and he’s an incredible slot receiver which is perfect for the Seahawks.  Lockett and Metcalf are great on the outside and the team needed a middle of the field savant like JSN.  Unfortunately, he broke a bone in his wrist and while they are saying he could be back within the first few weeks of the season, it’s not an injury that sounds good for a guy who has to catch the ball.  They have no depth, especially with Dee Eskridge suspended the first six weeks of the year.  The Seahawks should be scouring the waiver wire after cutdown day to find some receiver depth.  TE Noah Fant is a very solid pass catcher and the team has some depth with Will Dissly and Cody Parkinson. 

            The offensive line should be better assuming LT Charles Cross and RT Abraham Lucas progress in their second seasons after starting as rookies.  LG Damien Lewis is just figuring it out and can be pretty good.  The two trouble spots are center and RG.  Evan Brown has bounced around in his career and is penciled in at center but he’s going to have to hold off rookie Olu Oluwatimi.  Phil Haynes is the RG until they find someone better.  They don’t have any depth so an injury to the line could derail things quickly. 

            The defensive line needed to change and the team went for a complete overhaul.  They spent big money on Dre’Mont Jones to star up front.  They also signed veterans Jarran Reed and Mario Edwards Jr. and this should be the new starting defensive line.  They also drafted Mike Morris and Cameron Young and they will probably be two of the main backups.  The overhaul was thorough and complete. 

            The linebacking group found some solid pass rushers last season in Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor Jr.  Nwosu became a full-time guy in his first season in Seattle and had 9.5 sacks.  Taylor is a rotational player who was also effective.  Boye Mafe will see more time this year in year two and the team hopes rookie Derick Hall contributes as a pass rusher.  The team brought back Bobby Wagner at ILB because they struggled there.  Jordyn Brooks is quite good but he needed help inside.  They also brought in Devin Bush as depth. 

            The secondary is where this defense could really excel.  CB Riq Woolen (formerly Tariq) had a fantastic rookie year and he gives them a big outside corner at 6’4.  They used the fifth pick in the draft to take Devon Witherspoon to be the other CB outside.  Jamal Adams cost the Seahawks a lot of draft capital a few years ago but he’s an elite SS when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last year, but they have to hope he is this year. Quandre Diggs is an underrated FS and pairs well with this group.  The team also signed Julian Love from the Giants, he’s a versatile defensive back who could be the slot guy, he could also fill in at safety for Adams or Diggs if needed.  This is a talented and deep secondary.

Los Angeles Rams

            The division is a two-team race because the Rams and Cardinals are not going to be very good.  The difference between the bottom two is that the Rams aren’t necessarily trying to be bad and their offense has an outside shot at being competent, assuming everyone gets healthy.  It starts with Matthew Stafford, he missed most of last season with multiple injuries but he should be back to full health. 

            The team needs Cooper Kupp to be at his very best if they have any chance of being good.  Kupp was great last year until he got hurt, getting hurt was a team activity last year.  They don’t have great players beyond Kupp at WR but Van Jefferson could be good if he ever plays more than a couple of games at a time.  Ben Skowronek is the other guy, he’s not that good but the Rams seem to like him.  TE Tyler Higbee is the second most important pass catcher here and Stafford will look to use him plenty. 

            The running game goes where Cam Akers takes it.  They only have Kyren Williams and rookie Zach Evans behind him, it’s not a great situation.  Also, the offensive line needs to get healthy and it is starting to sort itself out.  After committing money to Joe Noteboom to be their LT after Andrew Whitworth retired it looks like he’s lost the job for good.  Alaric Jackson has stepped in at LT and Noteboom still isn’t healthy.  Jackson and rookie Steve Avila should form a solid left side of the line and stabilize Stafford’s blindside.  C Brian Allen is returning but late reports say Coleman Shelton has beaten him out for the job.  RG is where they are potentially moving Noteboom if he gets healthy but Tremayne Anchrum Jr has been holding down the spot since spring and they like him.  RT Rob Havenstein is a decent veteran and they count on him to remain that. 

            If you don’t recognize any names beyond Aaron Donald on this defense, you’re not alone.  I consider myself well versed in NFL players and NFL rosters and I look at this defensive depth chart and think, who?  Or, that guys starting?  The defense is a disaster and there’s not a lot of hope right now.  Donald will start on the line and probably Bobby Brown III at NT because they don’t have much there.  The other starter is either rookie Kobie Turner or maybe Marquise Copeland, neither one inspires confidence.

            Linebacker is in even worse shape considering they don’t have an Aaron Donald here.  Ernest Jones Jr is probably their best LB, that is what you call faint praise.  Rookie Byron Young probably starts as one pass rusher.  Michael Hoecht is listed as the other starting OLB, I have no idea who he is.  That is doubly true for the other ILB next to Jones, Christian Rozeboom, no idea at all. 

            The secondary has plenty of names I recognize but that’s not all a good thing.  Ahkello Witherspoon and Derion Kendrick are the starters at CB.  Witherspoon has bounced around for a reason and Kendrick flashes ability but he’s inconsistent, not a great trait for a CB.  John Johnson III returns to the Rams after leaving for a big contract in Cleveland.  He hasn’t been the same since he left and it’s rare that a guy returns to a place and goes back to being as good as he was there before.  Jordan Fuller is the other starting safety and he’s just a guy.  This team has a lot of rookies who could earn playing time, the problem is it’s not because they are all good, it’s because it’s the team’s only option. 

Arizona Cardinals

            The Cardinals are the odds-on favorite to be the worst team in the league and heading for a chance to pick Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year in the draft.  The team is in complete overhaul mode with a new GM, new head coach, and probably a new QB next year.  Kyler Murray got a huge extension and then got hurt last season and will miss at least a few weeks of the year, probably more than a few.  This team will either be playing Clayton Tune or the newly acquired Josh Dobbs at QB.  They are gutting the team and a trade of Murray seems inevitable next off season.  Cutting presumed starting QB Colt McCoy was not really a tanking strategy, trust me, he wasn’t a great option.  If they sign Carson Wentz, that would be a tanking maneuver.    

            The offense probably relies heavily on RB James Connor considering their QB options.  Connor is a solid player and he can handle a heavy workload.  New head coach Jonathan Gannon comes from a defensive background and he’s smart enough to realize his defense is going to be bad and he needs his offense to play ball control.  The offensive line has DJ Humphries at LT for now.  I say for now because this team may go into fire sale mode and a competent LT is worth something (how have the Jets not made a deal yet?).  The team drafted Paris Johnson Jr in round one and while he’s won the RT job, he could easily slide over to LT if Humphries gets dealt.  The interior of the line might get the QB killed (this is where Dobbs athleticism might be helpful).  LG Elijah Wilkinson, RG Will Hernandez, and C Hjalte Froholdt are not good, don’t even hope.  The line needs an overhaul apart from Johnson and it should start with the draft picks they get in a Humphries deal. 

            The passing game has three really small WRs who all bring different things, one big WR who is an injury risk, and very suspect QB (even when Murray returns).  Marquise Brown is a 5’9 deep threat who is usually a boom-or-bust proposition from week to week.  Rondale Moore is 5’7, coming off an injury plagued season, and he’s best in the slot with his hands on the ball.  Greg Dortch is 5’7 and he stepped in when Moore was hurt last year and is now redundant.  Rookie Michael Wilson is 6’2 but he had a hard time staying on the field at Stanford.  Oh, and they have Zach Pascal because someone has to have Zach Pascal.  Zach Ertz returns from injury at TE and he makes for a nice safety outlet for whoever is unlucky enough to be playing QB for this team. 

            If you think the offense sounds rough, get a load of this defense.  Jonathan Gannon has his work cut out for him and if they are transitioning this thing from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (and it looks like they are), yikes.  It’s basically SS Budda Baker and ten guys no one else wants.  Former GM Steve Keim was one of the worst drafting GMs over the last several years and this roster reflects that reality. 

            Up front the team has NT Leki Fotu, he’s built like a traditional 3-4 NT and they are going to have to see if he can transition to a 4-3 DT instead.  Carlos Watkins or Rashard Lawrence will probably start next to him.  At DE, Jonathan Ledbetter will probably be one starter while former Seahawks first-round bust LJ Collier will battle Cameron Thomas for the other spot. 

            The one guy who could benefit from Jonathan Gannon and his system is Zaven Collins.  Collins was a first-round pick a couple of years ago and they have been playing him at ILB in the 3-4 defense.  Collins has the ability to play outside and the athleticism to be used as a rusher.  Gannon had Hassan Reddick in Philadelphia and while I’m not certain Collins has the pass rush instincts of Reddick; Gannon could use Collins similarly in his scheme and see if he can generate pressure with him.  Kyzir White played for Gannon in Philly last year too and he’s probably the starting MLB.  Guys like Dennis Gardeck, BJ Ojulari and Myjai Sanders are going to try to find a spot either at LB or as DEs, wherever they think they can stick. 

            In the secondary they have Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson at safety.  Baker is one of the top safeties in the league and deserves to play on a better team.  Thompson isn’t a household name but he’s actually been pretty effective as a partner for Baker.  They are the last line of defense and with this front seven that’s a very literal term.  At CB, the team really likes Marco Wilson, he’s not the worst corner in the league but he’s not a legitimate #1 corner either.  He does look really good compared to the rest of the group; Antonio Hamilton Sr., Kei’Trel Clark, Garrett Williams (who I would like a little as a rookie if he were healthy), and Kris Boyd.  This defense is going to get destroyed most weeks.  New GM Monti Ossenfort started the rebuild when he traded back in the draft last year to pick up an extra first round pick in 2024.  He needs to see what he can get for Humphries, Baker, and anything else anyone might want, that includes Kyler.  The team started to jettison guys by shipping former first rounder Isaiah Simmons to the Giants in the preseason, they need to clear cap space so they can eat the dead money on Kyler’s deal next off season.  Ossenfort seems more pragmatic than Keim ever was and he seems smarter too. 

This division is going to be a bloodbath.  I like the Bengals because I think Burrow and that offense hasn’t peaked yet and the defense is still good enough.  If you told me all four teams in this division finished 10-7, I wouldn’t be surprised.  They are going to beat each other up and AFC is no picnic outside the division.  I’m in on Baltimore being better with a healthy, happy Lamar and no more Greg Roman.  If Watson is better the Browns should be good.  The Steelers are always steady but Kenny Pickett and a defensive backfield that’s questionable make me nervous for them. The difference between first and last in this division might be one game. I think Cincinnati is the best team in the division but you could shuffle the other three teams in an order and I would buy it.  

Cincinnati Bengals

            I’m picking the Bengals because it looks like Joe Burrow’s injury isn’t going to keep him out and this team is ready to roll.  This division is going to be tough with Lamar Jackson back to full health, the Browns hoping to rebound in Deshaun Watson’s second year, and Pittsburgh is always tough.  The Bengals offense should be one of the best in the league, the defense just needs to be steady.

            Burrow is an elite QB but it certainly helps that he has the league’s best three-man WR group.  Ja’Marr Chase is one of the top three WRs in the NFL, Tee Higgins is a #1 WR in his own right, and Tyler Boyd is a fantastic slot receiver who gets overshadowed by two elite teammates.  They didn’t have much depth at the position so they grabbed two rookies to help, Andrei Iosivas and Charlie Jones.  Jones gives them a nice return man too.  They don’t have a top TE option so they are taking a flyer on Irv Smith Jr. 

            The running game is in the capable hands of Joe Mixon, at least for this year.  They will ride with him as much as possible because Samaje Perine left for Denver.  Trayveon Williams returns but rookie Chase Brown might be the more likely backup.  The offensive line got a boost when they signed LT Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency.  They needed the upgrade and bringing him in at LT allows them to move Jonah Williams to RT where he should be an upgrade over last year’s starters at the position.  LG Cordell Volson, C Ted Karras, and RG Alex Cappa aren’t winning any awards but they should be steady and with better play on the edge, this line should be fine. 

            The Bengals don’t have superstars on the defensive line but they have excellent players who play well together.  Trey Hendrickson is the playmaking pass rusher; he didn’t have his most productive year last year but he’s still really good.  Sam Hubbard is a solid player on the opposite side.  The team grabbed Myles Murphy in round one of the drafts to give them some upside depth.  DJ Reader is a big, physical presence in the middle and he’s generally underrated.  BJ Hill is a solid player next to him. 

            The LB corps is also full of guys who aren’t superstars but are generally better at their jobs than they get credit for.  The team often only plays two LBs while being in the nickel and Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt are the two they use.  They are both solid players who are good tacklers and can do a bit of everything.  Akeem Davis-Gaither is usually the third LB. 

            The secondary is in transition as both starting safeties departed and #1 CB Chidobe Awuzie is returning from injury.  Eli Apple is gone so Cam Taylor-Britt will keep his starting spot after he replaced Awuzie last year, now he pairs with him.  Former first-round pick Dax Hill will step in at one safety spot while free agent Nick Scott should be the other one.  Rookie CB DJ Turner II and rookie safety Jordan Battle are going to make it a competition for the veterans at their spots.  Turner can push Taylor-Britt and Battle should push Scott.  They will likely rely on the veterans early but Turner and Battle are talented guys. 

Baltimore Ravens

            The Ravens’ long, drawn-out nightmare of Lamar Jackson’s contract negotiations is finally over and he got a lot of money, which we knew he would, and they didn’t give a Deshaun Watson-level of guaranteed money, which we also knew would happen.  All that bluster from both sides and we ended up exactly where we knew we would.  That’s good news for them as long as Lamar is happy and more importantly, healthy.  The happy part should be easy now that Greg Roman is gone and Todd Monken is the new offensive coordinator.  Also, Jackson finally has legitimate NFL level receivers.

            The Ravens went out and actually got Lamar Jackson legitimate NFL receivers.  That may sound disrespectful to last year’s group but they were subpar.  Odell Beckham Jr. is coming back from missing last year with an ACL tear and he’s still better than last year’s guys.  They drafted Zay Flowers, he’s an upgrade in the slot, they hope Rashod Bateman can get healthy but even if he doesn’t fully come back, they signed Nelson Agholor, that’s the best fourth WR they have had, maybe ever.  They still have Mark Andrews at TE.  His production was down last year but Jackson missed a lot of time.  They also have Isaiah Likely backing him up, he could be a player. 

            The offensive line should have four spots locked down.  That’s assuming LT Ronnie Stanley is finally healthy, they need him to be.  C Tyler Linderbaum is climbing the ladder as one of the best centers in the game.  RG Kevin Zeitler is 33 but he just keeps chugging along.  RT Morgan Moses isn’t amazing but he’s solid.  The one spot they need to figure out is LG, there are plenty of options, not sure any of them are great.  The running game is hoping for the fully healthy rebound for JK Dobbins but he started training camp on the PUP list.  They have Gus Edwards and Justice Hill but Dobbins is the best option if he’s healthy. 

            The Ravens have always been known to have a great defense but it’s going to take an especially good year from defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.  The team isn’t its usual stacked self and they will be relying on hope in some key spots instead of counting on proven players.  The defensive line has three solid guys; Justin Madubuike, Michael Pierce, and Broderick Washington.  Those guys can play the game but it would really help if Travis Jones emerged at NT. 

            The LBs are set on the inside.  Roquan Smith came over in a trade last season and immediately stepped in as the star he is.  His addition seemed to really help Patrick Queen become his best self.  The Ravens pass rush comes from their OLB spots and that’s where the hoping and wishing really comes in.  Odafe Oweh and Jadaveon Clowney are the likely starters and neither one is an elite pass rusher.  Jadaveon Clowney was a late addition during camp and while he adds value, he’s never been an elite pass rusher, just a solid overall player.  David Ojabo took his rookie year as a redshirt and comes in looking to emerge off the edge.  He’s a talented player but he was raw coming in and he missed last year rehabbing a knee, they hope he’s ready to contribute. 

            The secondary can be the best unit on this defense but they need to play better than they did last year.  Marlon Humphrey is their top CB, he’s a good player but he’s injured at the moment, that doesn’t help.  They signed Rock Ya-Sin to be the other CB and he replaces Marcus Peters, who had been falling off a bit.  Ya-Sin is a solid #2.  They signed Ronald Darby; he’s a decent veteran and we will see plenty of Jalyn Armour-Davis.  At safety they are in great shape with Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton.  Williams is one of the best in the game and Hamilton is rapidly rising up that list. 

Cleveland Browns

            I can’t believe I’m picking the Browns over the Steelers in this division but I think they are just slightly better.  It’s quite possible the Browns are just the Browns and the Steelers are just the Steelers and Cleveland ends in last place but if they aren’t good this year, it’s never going to happen.  The wildcard for this team is Deshaun Watson.  I don’t want to spend a lot of time on him but if he’s the best version of himself, this team will be good, if he’s last year’s version, Kevin Stefanski will be looking for a job. 

            This offense can be good if Watson finds his form again.  The offensive line can be excellent.  Jedrick Wills Jr. hasn’t quite been as good as some of his draft classmates at LT but he’s fine.  If Jack Conklin is healthy at RT, he’s good and they drafted a solid backup option in Dawand Jones.  Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller are an excellent pair of guards and Ethan Pocic was pretty good at center last season.  The running game is still in the capable hands of Nick Chubb, he’s one of the best RBs in football.  He doesn’t have his running mate, Kareem Hunt, any more but Jerome Ford should be solid.

            The pass catching group is better than you think.  Amari Cooper isn’t an elite #1 WR but he’s a very productive one nonetheless.  The team returns Donovan Peoples-Jones and while he’s not my favorite, they seem to like him.  They added Elijah Moore in a trade and he can be a good slot receiver if they give him a chance.  I really liked the drafting of Cedric Tillman, he’s an underrated addition.  TE David Njoku isn’t going to be mistaken for Jimmy Graham in his heyday but he’s an effective player for the Browns. 

            The defense is led by superstar DE Myles Garrett.  He’s in his prime at 27, coming off a 16-sack season, and they finally got him some legitimate help up front.  Za’Darius Smith is likely the best pure pass rusher Garrett has ever lined up opposite of in his career (Jadaveon Clowney is not a great pass rusher).  They also signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson to secure the interior so hopefully they won’t get destroyed up the middle in the run game.  If Shelby Harris happens to win the other DT starting spot, that would be three new starters on the defensive line with Garrett, smart moves. 

            The Browns run defense was atrocious last year and a big part of that was terrible linebacker play in the middle (the DTs were bad also).  Anthony Walker Jr. was supposed to be the guy at MLB last season but he got hurt early and their run defense fell apart.  He’s back and they need him badly.  Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah is a speedy, undersized LB but they are finding ways to make him useful.  Sione Takitaki is the third guy when they play three LBs.  He’s just a guy which is why they use five DBs often. 

            This secondary has the talent to be elite.  CB Denzel Ward can be one of the best in the game.  He’s not the biggest guy but that has never stopped him from covering anyone.  Martin Emerson Jr and Greg Newsome II are good, young CBs with size and skill.  FS Juan Thornhill is an underrated pickup who can be an excellent centerfielder for this team.  SS Grant Delpit will be better off at SS with Thornhill covering his back.  If this team gets better consistency upfront from Tomlinson and Smith and the LBs aren’t a total liability, this defense has a chance to be really good. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

            We know the Steelers won’t be bad, they never are, however, I’m not sure how good they will be.  They may not have substantially improved the offensive line, Kenny Pickett got better as the season went on last year but what’s his ceiling, and the defense has some questions at ILB and in the secondary.  Mike Tomlin can get them to nine wins but that might still only be fourth in this division. 

            Pickett had a brutal start to his rookie year once he took over the job but he faced a string of really good defenses right out of the gate.  He got better and that’s encouraging but how good can he really be.  He has the weapons if he can figure out how to use them.  Diontae Johnson was a target machine last year and he can’t possibly be as bad at scoring TDs as he was last season.  It was inexplicable how a guy with 86 catches on 147 targets didn’t score once, that can’t happen again.  George Pickens is one of the most physically impressive WRs in the game, they need to find ways to use him beyond him just running go routes all game (this is where Matt Canada returning as offensive coordinator is a problem).  They signed Allen Robinson hoping he has something he hasn’t shown in several years.  They have to hope Calvin Austin III finally figures it out. TE Pat Freiermuth is the unsung hero of the passing game.  He’s not a household name but he’s talented guy who can make life easier for Pickett.

            The running game has talented RBs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, even if Harris looked less than stellar last year.  The problem isn’t the RBs, although you could make the argument, they should give Warren more carries and use Harris less.  The problem comes up front.  The offensive line was not good last season.  LT Dan Moore Jr struggled and the team drafted Broderick Jones to replace him.  Jones failed to unseat Moore and I’m not sure if that’s because Jones was that bad or Moore played better.  He’s still not a great LT but if he’s better, that helps.  They signed Isaac Seumalo from Philly, he’s an upgrade at LG but he’s not great.  They need C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, and RT Chukwuma Okorafor to raise their games.  If not, it won’t matter what changes Matt Canada makes to the offense, it won’t go anywhere.

            Defense is generally not a problem in Pittsburgh and they still have plenty of talent to be good, however, there are some obvious questions they need to answer.  The front three is not where you get massive production because that’s not what they are asked to do, they just play tough up front.  Someday the now 34-year-old Cameron Heyward isn’t going to be great but I’m not betting against him.  Rookie Keeanu Benton is already slotted into the NT spot, he’s going to be fine, he’s made for it.  Larry Ogunjobi is a veteran who can hold his own. 

            The star power for the Steelers defense has come at OLB for a very long time.  TJ Watt is an in-his-prime pass rushing star who is coming off an injury that kept him out for about half of last year.  He should be fine and he should be back to being his superstar self.  With Watt injured last season Alex Highsmith had his breakout year with 14.5 sacks and now the Steelers hope he and Watt can play together and both be highly productive.  They need them to be because the ILB spots are in flux.  The team signed Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts as new starters because they just weren’t very good at ILB last year.  They even signed Kwon Alexander as depth.  Holcomb and Roberts are fine but neither one really moves the needle. 

            The secondary is also in flux.  Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best and most versatile safeties in football and he’s back, the rest of the starters might all be different.  Patrick Peterson is 33 and while he’s nowhere near his old self, they hope he still has something left to stabilize one CB spot.  They also hope rookie Joey Porter Jr can step in at the other spot otherwise they have to go back to Levi Wallace.  Wallace is okay but Porter has a lot more potential.  They also signed Chadron Sullivan to be the nickel corner but he was so unimpressive they signed Desmond King II after he was cut by the Texans.  King is a good nickel guy but if you’re taking guys cut by Houston, I don’t like your roster building at that point.  At safety they are counting on Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal to make one good player opposite Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick erases a lot of issues in a secondary but this one might have too many even for him to fix.    

            I’m going with the Bills winning because they have earned it but it’s not a sure thing.  The coaching staff issues on defense worry me, Von Miller’s age and health worry me and they may have just missed their window.  I’m picking the Patriots second because they have an elite defense just like the Jets but the Jets have an even worse offensive line situation and I’ll take Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien over Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett every day, especially on Sundays.  I’m picking them over the Dolphins because the Dolphins offensive line isn’t great either, their QB is one major hit away from retirement and their defense still needs to prove it will be great under Vic Fangio and that’s going to be harder without Jalen Ramsey for most of the year.  This division is going to be competitive and the difference between first and last might be two games. 

Buffalo Bills

            I’m picking the Bills to win this division but I’m not all that confident in this choice.  The team was good last year but flamed out in the playoffs, they didn’t add anyone of major significance, and they have a few question marks going into the season.  Josh Allen is still the best QB in this division and none of the other three teams look ready to take the title from Allen and the Bills just yet.  They won’t walk through this division but they should come out on top.

            Allen gives the Bills a leg up, he covers for any possible flaws in this offense but he could use some guys stepping up.  Stefon Diggs is a legitimate #1 WR but there was a moment this off season where he seemed upset with his contract status.  If he isn’t fully focused this team has an issue.  They need Diggs because they don’t have a clear second star in the passing offense.  Gabe Davis hasn’t proven to be consistent enough, Dawson Knox isn’t that guy, and none of the rest of the WR/TE group are proven guys.  The one guy that might end up being the player they need is rookie TE Dalton Kincaid and relying on a rookie TE to take your offense up a notch would be foolish. 

            The running game is mostly Josh Allen when it matters and while the team likes to talk about using RBs more it has been the same talking points for years now and it never changes.  James Cook is the new RB they like to talk about and they also tout the fact they signed Damien Harris to take the short yardage carries off of Allen.  Cook is a second-year guy who couldn’t unseat Devin Singletary last year so we’ll see how that goes.  Harris is a talented big back but he has a hard time staying healthy and he’s already gotten banged up in camp.  The offensive line isn’t great.  They don’t have a top player at any position.  LT Dion Dawkins and C Mitch Morse are above average but that’s the best thing you can say about them.  Rookie O’Cyrus Torrance took the RG spot and he gives them their best chance at an elite starter, just probably not this year.  Ryan Bates, Connor McGovern, and Spencer Brown, get the job done but they aren’t great.

            The problems on defense start with the fact that Sean McDermott let Leslie Frazier go as defensive coordinator and is taking it over himself.  McDermott is an accomplished defensive coach but I think he should be concentrating on the whole team as the head coach. 

            Miller was having a good season when he got injured last year and he was having a great effect on the rest of the defense.  That was especially true for young pass rusher Greg Rousseau who was breaking out with Miller on the opposite side.  The problem was that when Miller went down, Rousseau’s production tanked too.  That’s not a good sign.  The team did sign veteran pass rusher Leonard Floyd to go with AJ Epenesa and Shaq Lawson but Miller is starting the season on the PUP list meaning he will miss at least the first four games.  DT Ed Oliver got a big contract, now he needs to play up to it.  DaQuan Jones is the bigger body in the middle who makes Oliver’s job a bit easier. 

            At LB, things get interesting after the team let Tremaine Edmunds walk in free agency.  Matt Milano does return but he needs a partner in the middle.  Milano is an excellent player but either Tyrel Dodson or Terrel Bernard is going to have to step up.  The Bills mostly play only two LBs but if one of them isn’t up to snuff, it could get rough. 

            The secondary needs Tre’Davious White to return to his pre-injury form as a top CB in the league.  He has the talent and hopefully the health this year.  They also need Kaiir Elam to take a step in his second year, he’s a talented player but he was inconsistent last year.  Taron Johnson is their nickel guy and they play five defensive backs a lot.  The good news for the Bills is that they will hopefully have their full complement of safeties back and ready to roll.  Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde both missed games last year (Hyde missed all but two).  Obviously, Demar Hamlin also had that little issue where he died on the field for a moment.  I can make that joke because miraculously, he’s back and ready to play.  I don’t cheer for the Bills but I’m cheering for that guy.  Poyer and Hyde are an elite duo at safety when healthy, Hamlin is an inspiration to this team. 

New England Patriots

            Bill Belichick’s coaching greatness took a serious blow last season with the Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator experiment, it was an unmitigated disaster.  Common sense has been restored and Bill O’Brien is back to run an actual NFL offense.  Mac Jones was a solid rookie when he had Josh McDaniels running the offense, last year he was bad because Patricia was awful, this year he gets back to an actual offensive mind running things.  The preseason put to rest any thoughts that Bailey Zappe will take Jones’ job when Zappe looked so bad, they cut him instead of carrying him as the backup. 

            The passing attack should be better with Jones feeling less frustrated and there is some hope for improvement from the group of pass catchers.  I’m not a DeVante Parker fan but he’s serviceable on the outside.  Kendrick Bourne probably benefits from Matt Patricia’s ouster almost as much as Mac Jones, he’s out of the doghouse and Bill O’Brien has him starting.  JuJu Smith-Schuster needs to get healthy but he should catch a lot of passes mostly playing out of the slot.  The two big X factors for this offense are two rookie WRs.  Demario Douglas has been the star of camp, he’s going to light it up, especially if JuJu misses time and Douglas becomes the main slot receiver.  I had my concerns about Kayshon Boutte coming out of LSU but he’s proven to be a major play maker.  The Patriots passing game needs a big play guy, Boutte has the talent to be that.  TE Hunter Henry isn’t flashy but he’s reliable and O’Brien and Mac will trust him when they need third down conversion or in the red zone.  The other potential playmaker is TE Mike Gesicki, he’s working back from an injury, but he’s a dynamic pass catcher when healthy.

            The running game is in good hands with Rhamondre Stevenson coming off an impressive year and the mid-camp signing of Ezekiel Elliott.  Stevenson was one of the best backs in football last year despite playing in a trainwreck of an offense.  He was a bell cow carrying the ball and he’s a talented pass catcher.  One thing Stevenson was bad at last year was short yardage conversions, enter Ezekiel Elliott.  Zeke is one of the most effective short yardage backs in football.  He may not have the elite game breaking ability he had earlier in his career but he still knows how to convert on third down and find the end zone inside the five.  The Patriots needed a true #2 tailback and they found a perfect fit. 

            The offensive line is a mess, they need guys to get healthy, and to start the year they are carrying 11 offensive linemen, that’s ridiculous.  LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, and RG Michael Onwenu haven’t been healthy in camp and the backups haven’t been good.  C David Andrews is the only sure thing because the Patriots haven’t even settled on a RT yet.  They are trying rookie Sidy Sow at RT but he’s a work in progress.  New offensive line coach Adrian Klemm has his work cut out for him but at least he’s not Matt Patricia, who was not only a terrible offensive coordinator last year but doubled as a crappy o-line coach too.  They have veterans like Conor McDermott, Calvin Anderson, Riley Rieff (if he doesn’t end up on injured reserve), none of them have played well.  Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi are young options inside and they have no young options at OT except Sidy Sow.  Klemm needs to work some magic and O’Brien must scheme up some ways to help the offensive line otherwise this offense is going to struggle. 

            The Patriots’ defense was one of the better defenses in football last year and they drafted three rookies who will help, one at each level of the defense.  Up front, the defensive line has veterans Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, and Davon Godchaux starting.  These guys don’t generally light up a stat sheet but that isn’t their job.  Their job is to make life easier for the LBs to make plays and they do that very well.  Christian Barmore is going into his third year and he could be ready for a breakout.  Rookie Keion White is the perfect Belichick defensive lineman with size an athleticism and he may be a guy who can be a playmaker up front. 

            Linebacker is generally where the playmaking comes from in a Belichick defense.  Matt Judon has proven to be one of the best free agent splurges the Patriots have ever made and he’s an elite pass rusher for this team.  It really helped him last season when Josh Uche broke out on the opposite side as a pass rusher because it took some focus off of Judon.  Those two should continue to feed off each other with Anfernee Jennings the primary backup.  On the inside Ja’Whaun Bentley has never been my favorite guy but he’s gotten better and Patriots have found ways to use him where he’s most useful and not put him in situations he’s not great at.  Jahlani Tavai is the other starting ILB for now but he’s going to steadily lose time to rookie Marte Mapu who is an athletic freak.  Mapu is a converted safety/undersized LB whose athleticism is going to make him a playmaker on the inside.  He’s going to be fun to watch develop over the next several years. 

            The secondary got its biggest boost in a while when CB Christian Gonzalez inexplicably feel to the middle of round one in draft and Patriots got him.  Gonzalez is exactly what this defense needed, a big, physical outside corner to match up with the other team’s best receivers.  Gonzalez is going to make his rookie mistakes but he’s going to be huge for this team.  Gonzalez’s addition should allow the Patriots to move Jonathan Jones back inside where he’s one of the better slot corners in football, that upgrades two spots.  That’s assuming Jack Jones isn’t suspended too long (he needs to get his head on straight) and can be the other outside corner.  At safety the team has four guys who will rotate depending on matchups.  Kyle Duggar will get the most playing time, he’s earned it.  Adrian Phillips backs him up but can also play alongside him.  Jabrill Peppers is a jack-of-all-trades kind of guy who can also play either safety spot, some slot, and even come up like he’s a LB.  Jalen Mills is still a guy I can’t stand but he’s much more tolerable as a matchup specific fourth safety than as a starting CB. 

Miami Dolphins

            The Dolphins’ offense is absolutely elite under the direction of Mike McDaniel as long as Tua Tagovailoa is running it.  Tua admitted this off season that he contemplated retirement due to all the concussion issues he dealt with last season.  He’s the perfect QB to run McDaniel’s offense because he’s a precision passer who can get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle like he’s a point guard dishing out assists.  The problem is his health. 

            The problem with counting on Tua staying healthy is that the Dolphins still haven’t fixed an offensive line that might get Tua killed.  It’s not for a lack of trying, in the past several years they have signed free agents like Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, and Isaiah Wynn, and drafted Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson, and Robert Hunt high in the draft.  None of these moves have fixed the offensive line.  Armstead is an elite LT when healthy, that’s about 10 games max per year.  They signed Wynn to help, that’s not a solution, 10 healthy games from him would be a reach and he’s not great when he is healthy.  Williams is a solid center and Eichenberg should settle in at LG but neither is elite.  It’s still a mishmash trying to find the right combination and when your QB has concussion issues, an inconsistent offensive line means you’re living on the edge of disaster. 

            That said, this team has elite skill position players and probably the fastest group of players in the NFL.  You could put together an amazing 4 x 100-meter relay team with WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and RBs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.  Hill and Waddle make this offense absolutely frightening.  Either one can take a five yard catch and turn it into a 80-yard TD at any moment.  They don’t have a lot of depth because #3 WR Cedric Wilson had 12 catches for 136 yards last year in 15 games, which is basically a solid Tyreek Hill game.  Braxton Berrios is the next guy.  RB Raheem Mostert is a beast when he’s healthy but that’s hard to count on which is why they have Jeff Wilson Jr.  He’s solid in the McDaniel’s running scheme but he’s starting the year out with an injury.  Achane is the x factor.  If they use him right and get him involved, he’s a big play monster they could unleash. 

            The Dolphin’s defense has some excellent players on it and they could be elite but they are making transition from Josh Boyer’s defense to Vic Fangio which is like going from driving a Smart Car to driving a Ferrari.  Fangio will be more aggressive and that’s usually a good thing but it can lead to giving up plays if guys don’t know what they are doing.  The defensive front features DEs Christian Wilkins and Zach Seiler.  Wilkins is fantastic and he gets a lot of praise, rightfully so.  Seiler is good too but gets less recognition for it.  They flank NT Raekwon Davis, as with most NTs Davis is unheralded but quite good. 

            At OLB is where Fangio should unleash the playmakers this team has.  They traded for Bradley Chubb last year and he’s a proven commodity provided he can stay healthy.  He will play opposite emerging star Jaelan Phillips.  They need these two to play to their absolute best because they need to generate a pass rush for the defense to work.  The team did hedge a bit against these two staying healthy by keeping Andrew Van Ginkel around.  The inside LBs are Jerome Baker, a speedy playmaker who tackles everything and free agent signee David Long Jr.  Long is also an undersized guy like Baker except he’s even shorter. 

            The secondary looked like it could be a real strength when they traded for Jalen Ramsey to pair at CB with Xavien Howard, then Ramsey went down with a knee injury and things got a little tougher.  They don’t want to have to count on rookie Cam Smith but he might be the better option but for now it’s second-year man Kader Kohou.  The safety spot is similar in the fact they have one good starter, Javon Holland, and the other spot is questionable with DeShon Elliott penciled in right now.  Holland is a player but his job is lot harder if the other safety is bad.  The secondary really needs the pass rush to put pressure on the QB to make their lives easier otherwise, this defense could come apart at the seams. 

New York Jets

            The addition of Aaron Rodgers is clearly the headline for the Jets and I think he’s a major addition even if he isn’t peak MVP Rodgers.  Zach Wilson was so unbelievably bad last season that he completely destroyed the Jets offense.  Rodgers doesn’t have to be his best self; he just has to not be a complete disaster and he improves this team.  I think Rodgers will be slightly better than good but probably not all the way to great, assuming he doesn’t get annihilated behind this offensive line.  Ah, there’s the problem. 

            I’m not going to sugarcoat this, the Jets offensive line might be the worst one in the league, it’s that bad.  The guards are good, let’s start there.  Laken Tomlinson isn’t quite as dominant as he was in San Francisco and he is 31 so he’s probably just good at this point, not great.  Alijah Vera-Tucker has all the ability to be one of the best guards in football, he’s coming off an injury but he should be good.  C Connor McGovern is holding on to his starting job for now as rookie Joe Tippman is banged up.  There’s a reason they drafted Tippman, McGovern isn’t great.  The OT positions are where this team can really fall apart.  LT Duane Brown will be 38 this season and he only holds this position because they can’t come up with anyone better.  Mehki Becton is set to be the RT assuming he can’t win the LT spot back from Brown.  Becton was the LT many moons ago but he’s battled injury and ineffectiveness the past several years.  They need him and Brown to settle in at the tackle spots or they may have to use Max Mitchell and Billy Turner. 

            The skill position talent is excellent for the Jets.  WR Garrett Wilson had a great rookie year with some terrible QBs so having Rodgers should only make him better, assuming Rodgers doesn’t just throw to all the former Packers the Jets now have.  Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb joined the Jets, they are Rodgers favorites.  Mecole Hardman was also added from Kansas City, they have plenty of talent and depth at WR.  They should play Lazard, Wilson, and Hardman the most (Cobb shouldn’t be used a lot, but he’s penciled in as the slot guy right now).  At TE they have Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah, solid duo.  RB Breece Hall was a star until he tore his ACL last season, they can ease him back in this year.  They signed Dalvin Cook to give Rodgers a veteran to count on and to give Hall a little more space to return. 

            As much as I question Robert Saleh as a head coach, I can’t question him as a defensive mind.  The Jets defense was definitely better than the sum of its parts.  They don’t have an elite pass rusher but they manufactured pressure with Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers at DE and Quincy Williams blitzing at LB but I’ll get to him.  Lawson and Franklin-Myers were good but they aren’t elite pass rushers which is why the team spent a first-round pick on Will McDonald IV to be a pass rush specialist.  He’s undersized but he’s got speed off the edge, which is what they need.  DT Quinnen Williams is a beast inside (Quincy is his brother) and he commands a lot of attention inside, opening the edges a little.  Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson, and Solomon Thomas give them a rotation at DT. 

            The LBs are led by Quincy Williams.  He’s generally been known as Quinnen’s brother but he had a great year last year.  They used him as a blitzer to create pressure but he’s also just a good LB.  CJ Mosley plays the middle and he’s still a tackling machine even at 31.  Those two get the bulk of the playing time at LB.  Jamien Sherwood is the third guy, he’s just a guy. 

            The secondary is led by second year CB Sauce Gardner.  Gardner staked his claim to being the best CB in the league last year as a rookie (it’s a him and Patrick Surtain II duking it out for that title).  DJ Reed is a really good second corner.  Jordan Whitehead does his job and safety and the team thought they had a plan opposite him when they traded for Chuck Clark from Baltimore.  Then injury struck Clark and they quickly pivoted to veteran Adrian Amos.  Amos isn’t the guy he once was and he’s fighting Tony Adams for the starting job but at least he’s veteran if they have to turn to him.