New England Patriots version

I’ll probably be writing one of these for the Iowa Hawkeyes in the next few years and if Kirk Ferentz blows this offensive coordinator hire it will be sooner rather than later.  But that’s not what this one is about; this is about Bill Belichick and the Patriots deciding to mutually part ways.  I’m glad everyone could be adults about this, put aside contractual commitments, and just realize it’s better for everyone if you shake hands and walk away like gentlemen.  Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick have accomplished too much together to have this end acrimoniously.  In a few years the Patriots can have Belichick and Brady return to Gillett Stadium to unveil their much-deserved statues outside the stadium and go down in history together, as they should.

The Belichick legacy will be fully intact no matter what people say about him not being able to win without Brady or how the last several years in New England have gone.  Great coaches having great QBs isn’t a new phenomenon.  Don Shula has the most wins all-time, some of his QBs in his career; Johnny Unitas, Bob Griese (with some Earl Morrell sprinkled in), and Dan Marino.  Andy Reid is just behind Belichick, most of his coaching wins were with Donovan McNabb and Patrick Mahomes.  Belichick was lucky enough to have Brady for almost 20 years but it wasn’t luck that he chose Brady over Drew Bledsoe after Bledsoe was injured.  He recognized there was something special about Brady and even though he had a good QB he didn’t give Bledsoe the job back when he got healthy, he stuck with Brady. 

Belichick has always been a defensive genius and there was no clearer example of that than this season when he lost his top pass rusher Matt Judon and his star rookie CB Christian Gonzalez, early in the season and the Patriots defense was still good.  Over his 24 years he made plenty of smart personnel decisions (not just picking Brady over Bledsoe), but it was his personnel moves that failed over the last several years that have led to his demise.  His inability to find an adequate QB replacement for Brady was the glaring one but it goes deeper than that.  His drafts over the past 5-7 years have been pretty brutal. His first-round track record is even worse, he hasn’t hit on a first-round pick since he took Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower in 2012 and he let Jones walk in free agency after four years.  CB Christian Gonzalez has a very good chance to break that streak but he’ll be doing it for new head coach. 

Here’s Belichick’s first round picks going back to 2013 (there are several years the Patriots didn’t have a first-round pick).  OG Cole Strange (’22), taking an OG in round one is dumb, it’s not a premium position, and Strange may have already lost his starting job.  QB Mac Jones (’21), benched for Bailey Zappe, doesn’t get much worse.  WR N’Keal Harry (’19), drafted over second-round WRs Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, and DK Metcalf.  OL Isaiah Wynn and RB Sony Michel (’18), second-round offensive linemen they could have drafted; Braden Smith, James Daniels, Brian O’Neill. A second-round RB they could have had in that draft was Michel’s college teammate Nick Chubb.  In 2014 and 2015 they took undersized, injury-prone DTs Dominique Easley and Malcolm Brown, neither one amounted to much because they were often injured, that was predictable.  Belichick was always bad at drafting WRs, the Harry pick was egregious and he followed that up with taking Tyquan Thornton two picks before George Pickens two years ago.  The 2023 might buck the trend of being complete disasters but only if Jerod Mayo gets the best out of them.  His misses in free agency aren’t as bad but the Jonnu Smith signing was a terrible reaction to missing on two third-round TE picks in the same draft a few years earlier when he was trying to replace Rob Gronkowski, it was ugly.   

This is all to say that GM Bill Belichick failed head coach Bill Belichick far more than coach Belichick failed the Patriots organization.  It’s not hard to understand why things went so bad towards the later years.  The Patriots organization has hemorrhaged personnel talent for years.  Belichick started his run in New England with Scott Pioli and while Belichick always had final say on personnel moves, he gained more and more power as his personnel executives moved on.  He had Pioli, Thomas Dimitroff, Bob Quinn, Jason Licht, Jon Robinson, Nick Caserio, and Dave Ziegler all move on to become NFL GMs, all of them to various levels of success.  That’s a serious brain drain when it comes to knowing the draft and free agency and as Belichick aged, he struggled without their counsel. Belichick can still coach and he can still lead but his next employer shouldn’t give him final personnel say and should have a good GM.  They also need to insist he finds a new offensive coordinator with a new system he can work with (yes, this is exactly what I’ve been saying about Kirk Ferentz and it’s as true for him as it is for Belichick). 

Belichick isn’t done coaching and there will be plenty of teams that want to hire him.  If he takes the Washington Commanders job, he should ask Eric Bieniemy to stay (if he doesn’t get a head coaching opportunity), if it’s the Chargers job, he can hope Kellen Moore will stick around.  If he goes to Atlanta, he should hire anyone not named Arthur Smith, sign Kirk Cousins as his QB and that team will win 11 games next year (and I’m not a Cousins fan but he can get that offense humming once he’s healthy). 

Belichick is the greatest coach of all time and you can’t convince me otherwise.  Don Shula was great but he was great when the NFL wasn’t what the NFL is today.  Belichick won for two decades during a time when teams couldn’t hoard talent because of the salary cap, the league is designed for parity.  And while he had Brady for all those years the offenses they ran varied greatly while Belichick’s defenses were always great. They had the heavy run-based offense early in the Brady run with guys like Corey Dillon and Antowain Smith.  There was the high-flying offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker where Brady set passing records.  There were the two-TE heavy sets with Rob Gronkowski and the guy we don’t talk about.  Belichick cycled through many coordinators on both sides of the ball but won with all of them at one time or another.  Charlie Weis, Bill O’Brien, and Josh McDaniels were the offensive coordinators (McDaniels and O’Brien with two different stints). He probably should have branched out a little more in the end.  Guys like Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Dean Pees, and Matt Patricia held the defensive coordinator title but others served in the role, like Steve Belichick, Bill’s son, without holding the official title.  All of these guys had success under Belichick and yet none of them had real success as head coaches after leaving New England.  Jerod Mayo hasn’t held the title of defensive coordinator but he’s now the man tasked with replacing the legend.  He’s also the first Belichick protégé who isn’t leaving New England so it will be interesting to see if the organization can support a new young coach and find real success.  That leads me to the next part. 

The New Era of Patriot football.

Jerod Mayo is a former first-round pick of the Patriots who came into a veteran team and by his second season he was a captain.  He played ILB which is a position very important to the leadership and performance of any Belichick defense.  Belichick loved having Mayo leading his defense and when Mayo retired, Belichick wanted him to start coaching.  The stories told online are how Mayo wanted to branch out and had other interests and pursued those for a few years before Belichick finally convinced him to come back and join the coaching staff.  Every story you read about Mayo talks about how people are drawn to him, he’s a natural leader, and everyone respects him.  His players love him, the coaching staff loves him (including Steve Belichick) and clearly the Kraft family loves him. 

So, as a coach Mayo isn’t the schematic genius Belichick is (at least as far as we know) but he’s learned plenty playing and coaching with Belichick.  What he does have is the team culture aspect, the Patriot Way, if you will.  Was it Belichick or Brady who set the culture, well it doesn’t matter now because it’s up to Mayo.  He’s been around long enough to watch both those guys but the thing is, he isn’t Brady or Belichick.  He isn’t the genius curmudgeon Belichick is, he seems to be a far more genial man.  Brady was a superstar QB with a model wife and yet had a singular focus on football that ended his marriage before he retired.  Mayo is a smart guy who had other pursuits in life that he wanted to try before he ended up coming back to coaching.  That’s not Brady-like at all. 

Mayo is his own man but we can hope that he brings the same type of leadership and culture to the Patriots like DeMeco Ryans has to the Texans and Dan Campbell has to the Lions.  Robert and Jonathan Kraft passed on the opportunity to interview some really strong coaching candidates (Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Eric Bieniemy) to give the job to a guy who wasn’t even their defensive coordinator.  I like the hire because it also gives the Patriots the ability to hire a GM who can run the personnel side of things.  A guy like Vrabel may have wanted all the power and I’m against that model.  Also, hopefully Mayo will look outside the Patriot/Belichick circle to find a new offensive coordinator.  I would really love to see some new blood on that side of the ball to go with a new QB and while I’m still hoping for Drake Maye, I’ll settle for Jayden Daniels.  It’s a new era in New England.  A new head coach, hopefully a new offensive coordinator, a new GM (even if it’s someone from within their own front office like Elliot Wolf), and a new QB.  All of them ready to start the next 20 year run with six more Super Bowl titles.  The Brady Way, The Belichick Way, The Mayo Way?  Let’s just go back to calling it the Patriot Way.            

This mock draft is going to be a little different, on purpose.  I’m not going with the exact current draft order because there are several weeks left in the season and it’s going to change.  This draft is more about general position and what teams could do, should do, will do, and what some teams just won’t be able to stop themselves from doing. 

A couple of notes about this draft; overall it’s not all that strong.  Somewhere around pick 25 it starts to tail off.  The QB class is top heavy with a drop off after the third guy (Jayden Daniels).  The OT and WR groups are really strong and some teams are really going to get some steals.  I’m probably not as high on the CB class as others, yet for some reason I found myself putting quite a few in round one, so many teams need help there.  RB, LB, and safety might have some nice players in rounds 2-5 but I don’t think any of them are sniffing the first round.  Also, interior offensive line is pretty weak unless you count some of the potential OTs moving inside, I did that in this mock draft. 

I’m mocking the mock draft model for now, everyone else is taking it too seriously and that’s no fun.  So, let’s have some fun with it. 

1. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Chicago): Caleb Williams     QB     USC

The Bears are going to get the first pick from Carolina because the Panthers are a dumpster fire and they have almost locked in the first pick.  I contend Ryan Poles wants to be good sooner rather than later and with Matt Eberflus getting the Bears’ defense playing better and Justin Fields looking good, Poles trades this pick for a huge ransom.  He needs to find an owner dumb enough to offer a huge sum and look right there, it’s Mark Davis with his hand in the air. The Raiders need a splash to be relevant in Las Vegas and unless he can hire Bill Belichick, Lincoln Riley, or Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, this is the move.  The Raiders should be picking somewhere around eight in this draft so let’s say three first rounders and two second rounders and the Bears can’t say no.  Williams has star potential and if he goes to the Raiders, he’s probably going to be a bust.  It’s not his fault, it’s a Raiders thing.  I like Williams, I don’t love him like others do.  I see the bust potential if he’s not in a great situation and the Raiders have a long road to being even a good situation.    

2. New England Patriots:  Drake Maye     QB     North Carolina

Bill Belichick says goodbye to New England and Robert Kraft starts over with a new head coach (Ben Johnson, Bobby Slowik, it’s not going to be Mike Vrabel).  The new coach keeps Jerod Mayo and makes him the defensive coordinator because the defense is fine.  He drafts a new franchise QB in Drake Maye, the tall, athletic, rocket-armed star from North Carolina.  Then the team cuts every WR not named Pop Douglas and signs Tee Higgins to a massive contract.  When your team sucks at drafting WRs (I blame Belichick but let’s not take a chance) you just have to sign the best one on the market.  I’ll fix the LT spot a little later.  Sorry, that was a lot.  Maye is this year’s CJ Stroud.  Teams are going to start trying to talk themselves out of him, they are going to nitpick every little thing.  Stop overthinking it, this guy is a star.  Get him a real offensive mind to put it all together, and replace the “weapons” (I use that term loosely in reference to the Patriots skill guys), and Maye is off and running.    

3. Arizona Cardinals:  Marvin Harrison Jr.     WR     Ohio St.

An interesting comparison for Marvin Harrison Jr is Larry Fitzgerald.  It’s a worthy comparison but Harrison might have a higher ceiling.  Fitzgerald is one of the greats, Harrison has that level in him.  He has all the size you need but he also has all the skills and refinement of being Marvin Harrison’s kid.  The Cardinals have a small WR group and by that, I mean they’re all short, Harrison is legitimately 6’3.  I think the Cardinals want to see what they really have in Kyler Murray in their new offense and giving him Harrison would give him a better chance to succeed.  He is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson and surprisingly, the Cardinals offense under first-year coordinator Drew Petzing is actually pretty solid.     

4. Washington Commanders:  Jayden Daniels     QB    LSU

Daniels just won the Heisman Trophy but he hasn’t really been talked about as a top-level prospect until recently.  He has all the skills you like and the only red flag is the fact that he’s a little skinny, so was Lamar Jackson.  A better comparison might be Deshaun Watson without the off-field issues.  Anthony Richardson made a meteoric rise last year before the draft and went fourth overall, Daniels isn’t quite the freak athletically that Richardson was but he was a far more productive college player.  Sam Howell did a solid job in Washington but this team will likely have a new coach (hopefully just a promoted Eric Bieniemy) and the new owner might like a new face of the franchise.  Daniels could really unlock the skill position talent in Washington (imagine Terry McLaurin with a good QB).  Daniels is going to go in the top five, book it.  With hall that said, they should draft Olu Fashanu, the OT from Penn St.  Their line was atrocious and any new QB is going to get killed.  Howell might have actually been pretty good if he hadn’t been sacked every third play.    

5. Los Angeles Chargers:  Malik Nabers     WR     LSU

This seems a bit high for the second WR to come off the board but Nabers is a stud.  The Chargers finally fired Brandon Staley and will look different next year for sure.  They have a bloated cap (probably the reason Tom Telesco was fired as GM too), and some tough decision will need to be made.  Both edge rushers, Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, have bloated cap figures as do WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  Mack and Allen have both shown that even at an advancing age, they are still good while Bosa and Williams have proven they are simply injury prone.  Nabers would give the Chargers a perfect complement to Allen, he has electric downfield skills and they sorely need that.  Whoever is coaching the Chargers offense next season has to figure out how to unleash Justin Herbert’s arm.  It’s absolutely insane how much he dumps the ball off and they never go downfield, Nabers has that skill.  They are so underutilizing Herbert it’s hard to watch.    

6. New York Jets:  Olu Fashanu     OT     Penn St.

I know, the Bears are right around this pick but I think they end up with more wins so they fall a bit, the Jets are still terrible and they aren’t winning much to finish the year. I would hate to see this happen as Fashanu is a fantastic OT and a day one NFL starter at LT.  That’s exactly what the Jets need to protect Aaron Rodgers better next season.    Fashanu is everything you look for in a LT and he makes this offense better.  He has size, strength, length, agility, and toughness, he’s a future All-Pro.  My only issue with Fashanu going at six is that it seems a little too low but if Daniels makes the rise I think he will, someone has to fall.  If the Patriots fall out of the top three, and I pray Belichick doesn’t screw that up, this is the guy I want, he’s awesome.   

7. Chicago Bears (TRADE from Las Vegas):  Keon Coleman     WR     Florida St.

This isn’t the Bears pick, it’s the pick they get from Vegas for the first pick overall (well, one of them anyway).  The Bears stick with Fields and after watching DJ Moore have a positive effect on him, they look to double down.  Coleman is a freak at 6’3 215 lbs. and is the perfect complement to Moore.  He’s the big, contested catch guy who will make Fields that much more effective and he can be dangerous in the red zone.  The Bears have needs on defense and even on the offensive line but this draft has some serious WR talent and they shouldn’t pass it up, those other spots can be addressed later. 

8. New York Giants:  Brock Bowers     TE     Georgia

Bowers is a TE in name only, he’s just a massively talented playmaker in the passing game and he’s everything the Giants thought they were getting when they traded for Darren Waller.  Unfortunately for them, Waller just doesn’t play often enough.  They should probably look at a big WR instead of going with a roster full of slot guys again but unless they love Rome Odunze (I wouldn’t blame them, I think he’s awesome), they should just take Bowers.  They could draft a new RT to replace Evan Neal so they can try him inside at OG but the best RT on the board is probably JC Latham and that’s another Alabama OT like Neal, probably a pass for the Giants.  Bowers shouldn’t fall this far anyway so they give Tommy DeVitto a playmaker with some size to work with (sorry, I couldn’t resist, they are totally going with DeVitto next year at QB). 

9. Tennessee Titans:  Joe Alt     OT     Notre Dame

The Titans spent money on Andre Dillard last year to be their LT, and he’s been the worst starting LT in football (the Titans are the only people on the planet who didn’t see that coming).  They have replaced him with rookie sixth-round pick Jaelyn Duncan, and while I liked Duncan last year in the draft, he’s no Joe Alt.  Alt has leveled-up this year at Notre Dame and if he’s still on the board here for Tennessee, they should sprint to the podium to turn in his name.  They’ve been terrible at LT since Taylor Lewan’s knee injury that essentially ended his career.  They need a cornerstone up front, Alt might not be flashy, but he’s going to be a starting LT in the NFL for a decade. 

10. Seattle Seahawks:  JJ McCarthy     QB      Michigan

I said this was going to be fun.  The Seahawks haven’t been much fun to watch this year as Geno Smith hasn’t been great and now, he’s been hurt and they have Drew Lock at QB.  They hilariously beat the Eagles last week but I’m not buying them as being able to continue that play.  Smith got an extension last year but it wasn’t a long one and this team needs to think long-term about it’s QB position.  McCarthy isn’t a finished product but he’s a talented player and he could come in and give them a viable option to replace or backup Geno.  If Geno plays better next year, McCarthy can sit and learn, if Geno is bad, McCarthy takes over.  Maybe the Seahawks won’t spend a first round pick on a QB, but they should. 

11. Chicago Bears:  Dallas Turner     DE     Alabama

This is about where I expect the Bears’ pick to actually end up.  They got their DJ Moore complement with the first pick and now they get a guy to help Montez Sweat get pressure on opposing QBs.  Turner doesn’t have the profile his former Alabama teammate Will Anderson had last year but he’s a productive pass rusher who would benefit playing opposite Sweat.  The Bears defense got a lot better once Sweat arrived and having two guys really bringing the heat would help the secondary more than anything else they can do here. There are no safeties to take and I think improving the pass rush is the smarter play than over drafting a CB.    

12. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston):  Nate Wiggins     CB     Clemson

Houston has been a great story so far this year but they lost Tank Dell and now CJ Stroud is out with a concussion.  This team could struggle to end the year if CJ Stroud doesn’t get better fast.  Their pick goes to Arizona after last year’s trade between the teams.  Any defender will do on the defensive line or the secondary.  Wiggins will be the top CB on some teams’ boards and probably third or forth on others.  There is no consensus top CB pick.  Wiggins is long, lean, and feisty.  He has great cover skills but he’s allergic to tackling.  He’s a boom or bust CB pick and that feels like an Arizona kind of pick. 

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Jared Verse     Edge Rusher     Florida St.

The Bucs could win the NFC South or they could fade late and end up pick around this spot, I’ll bet on Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield to get them here.  They should be making a play for a new QB but for some reason I feel like they will go with Baker again, some teams like being just below average.  The defense is generally their strength but they need some new blood at LB.  ILBs aren’t worth the 13^th pick but they could also use some pass rush help.  Shaq Barrett isn’t getting any younger, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka isn’t great, and Verse could be a OLB in their system.  Verse is a talented pass rusher who isn’t the biggest guy but he’s relentless and can get to the QB. 

14. Atlanta Falcons:  Laiatu Latu     DE     UCLA

The Falcons need a QB but they are playing themselves out of a first round QB.  I suppose it’s possible they reach for Bo Nix but I’m more inclined to think they look for a veteran or try for a trade.  One other place they need help is the defensive line.  Calais Campbell will be a free agent and he’s already 37, David Onyemata is 31, and Grady Jarrett is 30 and recovering from a torn ACL.  Latu is a versatile player with good size and will be a good edge player in whatever system he ends up in.  Getting younger and more talented in the defensive front seven is never a bad idea. 

15. Pittsburgh Steelers:  JC Latham     OT     Alabama

The Steelers are another team that needs a new QB but are not in a position to get one here in the draft.  They will likely be looking for a veteran stop-gap QB, think Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill.  One thing they have to fix for good no matter who the QB is, the offensive line.  They drafted Broderick Jones in round one last year and then decided Dan Moore Jr was the better option at LT (they are wrong), Jones is playing RT for them now.  They have to just put Jones at LT and let him just take his lumps while he learns.  The best thing to help that is draft Latham, he’s a day one starting RT.  He’s beast and he’ll stabilize the right side.  Latham should go higher than this but this is the fun mock draft so he’s still here. 

16. Denver Broncos:  Cooper DeJean     CB     Iowa

The Broncos secondary needs plenty of help.  It has been a wasteland opposite Patrick Surtain II at CB, S Kareem Jackson has been suspended twice because he doesn’t know how to legally hit people anymore (he’s also in his late 30s).  K’Waun Williams and Riley Moss have been injured and Fabian Moreau is just a guy.  DeJean is an athletic freak who can play outside CB, he can play in the slot, he could line up at safety if Caden Sterns never gets healthy, and he can play dime LB if needed.  His versatility allows others to find their best spot, perhaps he takes the outside CB spot and the Broncos move Moss to safety to replace Jackson.  The Broncos clearly scouted the Iowa defensive backs last year considering they drafted Moss in round three.  DeJean is a whole other level.  He would pair with Surtain to make a dynamic CB duo and those teams that have been avoiding Surtain all year, will have to rethink their strategy.   

17. Minnesota Vikings:  Quinyon Mitchell     CB     Toledo

With the exception of Cooper DeJean, I don’t particularly love any of the top-rated CBs in this draft.  Wiggins doesn’t tackle, Kool-Aid McKinstry has had some rough games this year, and Terrion Arnold is fine but I haven’t seen him do it enough.  Mitchell is the small-school guy who could come flying up the draft boards as teams realize this CB class isn’t great.  This guy has all the physical tools you look for, he has great instincts for the position, and most of his weaknesses are just issues with his technique, something you can coach him on.  The Vikings secondary is pretty rough and they need CB help.  This is a projection but I’m comfortable with it, he’s a good player.  I do wonder if the Vikings are willing to go into next season with Jaren Hall at QB1 or whether they want to get a veteran or if they pull the trigger on a guy like Bo Nix.   

18. Indianapolis Colts:  Terrion Arnold     CB     Alabama

While I’m not a big fan of the CBs in this draft it’s not a particularly strong draft overall and teams will look to fill important positions, the Colts need CB help desperately.  Arnold is playing better this season than his more ballyhooed teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry but it could be either one here.  The Colts took JuJu Brents in round two last season and he’s starting at one spot but they don’t have great option outside opposite him.  They also need depth because their nickel corner Kenny Moore will be a free agent.  Arnold seems like a guy getting better the more he plays, that’s a good sign.

19. Los Angeles Rams:  Kool-Aid McKinstry     CB     Alabama

Last year there were four straight WRs taken in the early 20’s, this year we get four straight CBs taken just before the 20’s.  McKinstry hasn’t had a banner year but he still has tons of potential and the Rams secondary needs help.  They really could use anyone on the defensive side of the ball and I like McKinstry better than the pass rushers and defensive tackles here.  There are no safeties worth taking in the round one.  The Rams’ defense isn’t terrible considering it’s Aaron Donald and ten guys no one has ever heard of.  At least McKinstry has a memorable name. 

20. New Orleans Saints:  Taliese Fuaga     OL     Oregon St.

I seriously considered putting Bo Nix here, that would be fun.  However, this team has so much money tied up in Derek Carr I’m not sure they will spend a first-round pick on a QB and Nix isn’t quite good enough to reach this far.  The Saints have both Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz as pending free agents, that’s both of their normal starting guards.  Fuaga played RT at Oregon St but most teams project him inside.  He would also be a bit of a hedge as a LT fill-in for Trevor Penning who hasn’t been working out at that position.  The Saints like to invest in their lines and Fuaga seems like a Saints pick.     

21. Green Bay Packers:  Amarius Mims     OT     Georgia

The Packers offense is full of young guys and here they get even younger.  David Bakhtiari can’t stay healthy and my guess is he’s a New York Jet next year.  Rasheed Walker has been holding down the LT spot but he’s not great.  Yosh Nijman and Jon Runyan are free agents after the season so the team needs to replenish the offensive line.  Mims is all potential and not much production but his potential is incredible.  I’m including Mims in this draft but I’m not completely convinced he comes out because he’s been hurt a lot, this is a stacked OT draft, and if he returns to Georgia and has a great year, he’s a top five pick next year.  If he’s here, the Packers will bet on his potential. 

22. Cincinnati Bengals:  Rome Odunze     WR     Washington

The Bengals are trying to hold on with Jake Browning filling in for Joe Burrow at QB and I think they make the playoffs.  They have some holes on defense but this off season both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are free agents and with Burrow’s major contract and Ja’Marr Chase’s contract coming up, they can’t afford everyone.  Higgins is going to get major money so they need to replace him outside opposite Chase.  Odunze is a big, physical WR in the mold of Higgins and while he won’t be as refined as Higgins is at this point, his potential is enormous.  Odunze is my favorite WR in this draft not named Marvin Harrison Jr., I always have one.  He’s going to be a beast; his catch radius has no bounds. Joe Burrow will love him and the rest of the AFC will hate facing him.  You can’t double cover Chase and Odunze, good luck with that.   

23. Buffalo Bills:  Chop Robinson     DE     Penn St.

The Bills need CB help but I don’t like any more CBs for this first round, they also will need some edge help.  Von Miller will be 35, Leonard Floyd will be 32, and AJ Epenesa will be a free agent, so they need someone to play on the end.  Robinson is a little undersized but he knows how to get to the QB.  They have Greg Rousseau and he’s a big end so they can use Robinson on the other side.  If the Bills actually make the playoffs, they might be picking later than this, they will be a tough out.    

24. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Jer’Zhan Newton     DT     Illinois

The Texans traded their first-round pick to Arizona last year in the draft to move up and take Will Anderson, that’s worked out very well.  They still have this first-round pick from Cleveland from the Deshaun Watson trade, sorry Cleveland.  The Texans are doing far better than anyone thought and have some really good young players to build around.  Their biggest needs are not positions you typically target in the round one, interior offensive line and linebackers.  So, they go for the best DT in the draft.  Newton is a problem on the interior, he’s undersized but incredibly explosive, and he’s a handful.  They’ve had great success with Sheldon Rankins filling that role this year and while he’s a free agent they should be able to re-sign, why not double up there.  DeMeco Ryans knows that having a deep, talented defensive line is a great way to build a defense. 

25. Jacksonville Jaguars:  Emeka Egbuka     WR     Ohio St.

This is another team that has needs at positions they probably won’t address in round one; interior offensive line and safety.  WR doesn’t seem like a need but it is.  Calvin Ridley isn’t signed beyond the season and even if they do extend him (I expect they will) he’s been inconsistent.  Zay Jones has also been inconsistent and his contract can be voided. Christian Kirk in on IR.  Trevor Lawrence needs weapons and Egbuka is a serious talent.  He was rightfully overshadowed by Marvin Harrison Jr. at Ohio St. but he’s a really good player and he could replace Zay Jones.  He has the ability to become the Jags top WR if Ridley struggles. 

26. Detroit Lions:  Denzel Burke     CB     Ohio St.

The Lions tried to address their secondary in free agency last year but Emmanuel Moseley and CJ Gardner Johnson have both been injured and are on IR.  Cam Sutton has been okay but Jerry Jacobs has struggled.  They need CB help and Burke is a solid player.  He’s not flashy but that fits Dan Campbell’s team just fine.  They need competent players for their secondary and Burke shouldn’t be their only pick back there.  If they don’t go CB, they have to go defensive line, either way, they have to get better on defense. 

27. Kansas City Chiefs:  Troy Franklin     WR     Oregon

The Chiefs have to stop thinking Patrick Mahomes can make just any WR look good, he does need them to have some level of talent and it’s lacking right now.  They need someone who can take the top off the defense and catch the ball, that’s not Marquez Valdes-Scantling, it is Troy Franklin.  Franklin is a big play waiting to happen and he will take a lot of pressure off of Travis Kelce and give Mahomes a true talent at WR.  He doesn’t play the game like Tyreek Hill but with Mahomes as his QB he might have a similar impact on this offense.    

28. New England Patriots (TRADE from Philadelphia):  Tyler Guyton     OT    Oklahoma

The Eagles defense needs help in the secondary but the Eagles don’t like the guys left here so they trade down as New England comes back up into round one to get the LT they need.  The Patriots need to cut bait on Trent Brown and move on.  Guyton is a young, athletic tackle who can grow with some of the other young guys on the offensive line and with new QB Drake Maye.  He’s not a finished product but he’s worth the move up to add a LT of the future. 

29. Miami Dolphins:  Jordan Morgan     OT     Arizona

The Dolphins offense is a machine that just churns out big play after big play but they aren’t perfect up front.  Terron Armstead has had a long and distinguished career but he’s going to be 33 years old and simply doesn’t stay healthy often enough.  Morgan is one of several OTs who could go at the end of round one because he’s good enough to start early in his career.  There are some concerns about him holding up on the edge but the Dolphins offense moves so quickly, I think they would mitigate that concern. 

30. Dallas Cowboys:  JT Tuimoloau     DE     Ohio St.

The Cowboys’ defense has been very good under Dan Quinn but they could get thin fast at DE.  DeMarcus Lawrence is 32 and isn’t nearly as effective as he once was.  Dorace Armstrong is going to be a free agent and they probably don’t want to spend a lot to keep him.  Dante Fowler Jr is also aging.  Tuimoloau isn’t a bendy speed rusher off the edge but they have Micah Parsons for that.  What he does really well is hold the end, plays smart, and never quits.  He’s not going to make the splash plays but he’s going to do all the things that allow Parsons to make the splash plays. 

31. Baltimore Ravens:  Troy Fautanu     OL     Washington

The Ravens have an aging Kevin Zeitler at RG who will be a free agent after the season and their LG spot hasn’t been great this season with no clear plan moving forward there.  Fautanu played LT at Washington but most teams project him inside at guard.  He could take either spot and he’s also a solid choice as a backup option to Ronnie Stanley at LT, he’s not getting any younger and has had health issues. 

32. San Francisco 49ers:  Graham Barton     OL     Duke

Barton is another guy who plays LT in college but will move inside in the pros.  The real question is does he move to guard or center.  He might be the best center prospect in this draft, he played the position early in his career and he has the athleticism to excel there.  The 49ers seem satisfied with Jake Brendel at center but their guard play hasn’t been good.  Barton could replace either Aaron Banks or Spencer Burford.  Barton may also be a sneaky hedge against Colton McKivitz at RT.  He brings so much talent and versatility it’s almost unfair a team as good as the 49ers might get him.

• I tried desperately to find a place for Bo Nix in this mock draft.  I don’t actually think Nix is a first-round QB talent but he’s good and he might get pushed up because he’s a QB.  There are teams that could really use him and I wouldn’t be surprised if some team trades into the end of the round one to pick him.  I would be very surprised if Michael Penix Jr goes anywhere in round one or round two for that matter.  He was a highly productive QB at Washington but Kalen DeBoer’s offense and the ridiculous WR group they had made him look better than he is.  The two other WRs from Washington (other than Rome Odunze) Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk are guys who could sneak into round one and should for sure go in round two.          

Can Iowa be more than it’s been?  That’s the question.  Beth Goetz pulled the plug on the Brian Ferentz fiasco before November even got here and thankfully, it’s time to move on.  Those that are questioning the timing need to look no further than Kirk Ferentz’s Halloween press conference.  He talked about waiting until the end of the season and evaluating then.  He talked about evaluating like he has before.  Let me decode that for you, “if we win 9 or 10 games or the Big Ten West, I was planning on bringing Brian back no matter how short we were of 25 points per game”.  Goetz put that idea to rest before it could even begin.   

The problem with Kirk’s plan to wait until the end of the season is that Iowa will make a bowl game meaning he wasn’t going to “evaluate” until January and by then, any offensive coordinator candidates worth a damn would have other jobs.  Then he could keep Brian or if Goetz forced him out then, he could just install Jon Budmayr and keep doing things his way.  That’s not going to fly now, he has all kinds of time between the last game of the regular season and the bowl game to find a replacement.  There are the usual names that everyone seems to be mentioning because they have some tie to Kirk or he might feel comfortable with them.  Budmayr of course, Tim Polasek (his former offensive line coach), maybe Paul Chryst (former Wisconsin head coach), even David Raih (former Hawkeye player) has been mentioned.  All I can say is, if Kirk is comfortable with the guy, that’s probably a bad sign.

Now, when Kirk was asked about his process for finding a replacement, he said he was too focused on the season to worry about that now.  Well, not to worry, I decided (with a little encouragement) to share my offensive coordinator candidates for Kirk (or Beth) to peruse at their leisure.  This is not a list of people I think Kirk will look at, this is my list of guys Kirk should look at.  The likely hood is Kirk goes for one of the aforementioned guys or some retread coach nobody else wants (like the Greg Davis hiring). 

I would encourage Kirk to look at someone up and coming, someone with something new to offer.  I hope Beth Goetz strongly encourages Kirk to do just that.  Kirk has been acting far too much like his former boss Bill Belichick and hiring guys he knows and guys who won’t challenge him.  He needs to take a page from his former colleague Nick Saban and hire someone to fix his offense like Saban once did with Lane Kiffin.  Or he could pull a Bob Stoops and hire a young, innovative mind and eventually turn the job over to that guy.  Anyway, here’s my futile attempt to put something into the world and hope it comes true.  Here are some coaches from both the NFL and college that may be worth a look because they don’t come from the Ferentz school of offense. 

Five College Coordinators

These guys are all innovative minds who know how to call plays and have shown success in various stops.  Some have worked in multiple offensive systems so they have extensive knowledge of how best to use the talent on their team. 

Ryan Grubb     Offensive Coordinator     University of Washington

Grubb is probably not taking the Iowa offensive coordinator job but Iowa has to make the pitch.  Grubb was born and raised in Iowa and while he wasn’t a Hawkeye (he played at Buena Vista University) he’s a native Iowan and this state is still home.  He’s the offensive coordinator for one of the most explosive offenses in college football at Washington and he’s the QB coach (Lord knows Iowa needs better QB coaching).  He’s spent the majority of his career working under Kalen DeBoer, the architect of that Huskies offense and that offense has been good everywhere DeBoer and Grubb have used it.  It will be a tough sell but Iowa is a full-share member of the Big Ten and the TV and college football playoff money makes Iowa one of the big boys.  When you have a seat at the big boy table, you should act like it.  Iowa needs to stop acting like they don’t belong and show that they do.  Making a play for a guy like Grubb would be that kind of move.  Like I said, Iowa probably doesn’t get him but you have to make him say no.

Slade Nagle     Offensive Coordinator     Tulane University

Nagle has been on Willie Fritz’s staff at Tulane for eight years and just took over as offensive coordinator this last season, officially anyway.  Last year Fritz hired Jim Svoboda as his offensive coordinator but it ended up being Nagle who called the plays.  He was so well versed in the offense that he saw things Svoboda wasn’t seeing and Fritz made him the play caller.  He understood the personnel Tulane had (including the TEs he was coaching) and just had a feel for calling plays.  This season Tulane’s offense isn’t quite as good but that’s probably because they lost their starting QB Michael Pratt for several games (he’s a sleeper in draft circles) and they lost their backup QB in his first start.  The third-string QB led them to a comeback over Houston and even with all that QB turnover the Green Wave are still in the top 50 of most offensive categories, so about 80 spots ahead of Iowa this year.  Oh, and they are 7-1 and ranked in the top 25.  Nagle doesn’t seem like he would be married to one particular system, he would find the best way to use the talent he has to work with. 

Andy Ludwig     Offensive Coordinator     University of Utah

Ludwig is a coaching nomad so he’s basically the opposite of Kirk Ferentz and his staff.  Ludwig has coached under numerous head coaches and clearly has picked up a thing or two from many of them.  He’s having success over the last few seasons at Utah under Kyle Whittingham and that has led to his name being mentioned for some bigger jobs.  Ludwig is 59 years old so he has far more coaching experience than many of the other guys I will mention.  While he seems content at Utah, he’s used to moving around every few years so perhaps he could be convinced to give up his cushy job at Utah and take on the challenge at Iowa.  That may be a hard sell but give it a shot. 

Brennan Marion     Offensive Coordinator     UNLV

Marion is a younger guy at 36 years old but he’s coached under a number of different coaches and he’s also been a play caller at several stops.  He’s known for developing his GoGo offense when he was a high school coach early in his career and it has elements of the triple option along with some modern passing concepts.  He’s coached under offensive guys like Mark Whipple at Pitt when Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison were lighting up college football (Marion was Addison’s WR coach).  He also just spent a year under Steve Sarkisian at Texas before becoming UNLV’s OC this year.  I like guys with varied backgrounds who aren’t married to one system and will figure out what works with the guys he has. 

Tim Cramsey      Offensive Coordinator     Memphis

Cramsey is a veteran offensive coordinator.  He’s been the OC/QB coach at every stop he’s been at since 2009.  That includes New Hampshire, Florida International, Montana State, Nevada, Sam Houston State, Marshall, and Memphis.  The thing I like is that he’s been moving up the ladder and he’s had some very successful offenses, like the one he had at Marshall a couple of years ago was in the top 20 in the country.  When you’ve been as many places as he’s been you have to make adjustments to what your offense looks like and that’s something Iowa desperately needs.

***A couple of other names of younger, inexperienced guys Kirk should consider but would be way out of the box for him; Ben Arbuckle (Washington St. OC), Alex Mortensen (UAB OC). 

Five NFL Coaches

These guys are either QB coaches or passing game coaches who have worked with smart, innovative NFL coaches.  These guys would be similar to Mark Stoops hiring Liam Cohen from the Rams to fix his offense. 

Joe Brady     QB Coach     Buffalo Bills

Brady is most famous for being the passing game coordinator for the LSU team that won the National Championship and had Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase.  Having those guys would make anyone look good.  Brady then took over as the Panthers OC when Matt Rhule went to Carolina and it was a pretty ugly there.  He has moved on to the Bills where he’s been an assistant and is currently the QB coach for Josh Allen.  He started there when Brian Daboll was the offensive coordinator before he moved on to coach the Giants.  Now Brady is working under Ken Dorsey.  Brady is still only 34 years old but he’s been around a few impressive offenses and could be ready for the challenge of fixing Iowa’s offense. 

Ronald Curry     Passing Game Coordinator     New Orleans Saints

Curry started his professional coaching career under Jim Harbaugh when Harbaugh was coaching the 49ers.  After Harbaugh was let go, Curry moved on to the Saints and have been there ever since.  He’s been the WR coach, the QB coach, and currently he’s the passing game coordinator.  Curry learned for a number of years under Sean Payton and that’s a pretty good offensive mind to learn from.  He’s been progressing up the ladder and taking on more responsibility and he might be an intriguing option to look at if he wants a chance to be a play caller. 

Jake Peetz     Passing Game Specialist     LA Rams

If Ferentz wanted to go a near identical route to Mark Stoops at Kentucky, he could pluck Peetz from Sean McVay’s staff in LA just as Stoops did with Cohen.  Peetz has been a college offensive coordinator before at LSU so he has play calling experience.  He’s spent the last several years under McVay who is about as smart of an offensive mind as you can find in college or the NFL.  He turned down a job on the Nebraska staff of Matt Rhule last year to stay in LA so he clearly has good judgement. 

Klint Kubiak     Passing Game Coordinator     San Francisco 49ers

Kubiak is the son of former NFL Super Bowl winning coach Gary Kubiak.  Gary was a long-time assistant under Mike Shanahan and now Klint is the passing game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, sometimes nepotism works.  Klint has coached in both college and the NFL and coached both WRs and QBs.  He was also the play caller for one season for the Minnesota Vikings.  Spending time under one of the smartest coaches in football, Kyle Shanahan, makes Kubiak a very interesting up and coming coach.  I’m not sure if he wants to return to the college game but he’s an intriguing choice. 

Tom Manning     Tight Ends Coach     Indianapolis Colts

If this name sounds familiar it’s because before Manning became the TE coach for the Colts he served as Matt Campbell’s offensive coordinator at Iowa St.  I know, it seems weird to hire a guy who got fired from your in-state rival that you beat basically every time you played his offense but Manning was a solid coach.  He lost his job at ISU because Campbell needed a scapegoat when things weren’t going well and Manning took the fall.  I’m sure Kirk Ferentz is very familiar with Manning and while that scares me a bit, this is the one guy who Ferentz might be fine with and I’d be fine with, he had some good offenses at Iowa St. 

***Young or inexperienced NFL assistants Kirk should talk to and maybe look into hiring if he makes other changes on his offensive staff; Parks Frazier (Carolina Passing Game Coordinator), Dan Pitcher (Cincinnati QB coach), Brian Griese (San Francisco QB coach), Ben McDaniels (Houston Passing Game Coordinator), Chad O’Shea (Cleveland WR coach). A couple of older assistants who would be solid but wouldn’t rock the boat too much would be Doug Nussmeier (Chargers QB coach) and Keenan McCardell (Minnesota WR coach).

I have my fingers crossed that Kirk will make a smart choice but I’m not holding my breath.     

The long, slow decline of a legend is happening right in front of us.  Kirk Ferentz has been the coach at Iowa since 1999, that’s a hell of a run, but we are watching the end in slow motion.  I hate to say it but coaches who stay at one place for this long, rarely go out with a roar, it’s almost always a whimper.  There’s usually a steady, unmistakable decline that people don’t want to acknowledge.  It happened to Bobby Bowden, Bill Snyder, Frank Beamer and even Kirk’s predecessor at Iowa, Hayden Fry.  Sure, there’s sometimes a momentary bump like Bobby Bowden winning 10 games in 2003, Bill Snyder winning 9 games in 2016, or Fry winning 9 games in 1996, but everyone knows it’s not sustainable (sorry Frank Beamer, you had four non-descript seasons to end your legendary career at Virginia Tech). 

That decline in record hasn’t happened to Kirk yet but it’s coming.  He’s been propped up the past several years by great defense, great special teams, and a really pathetic Big Ten West division.  That division goes away next season and Iowa is staring into the abyss.  An offense that is at least a decade past its expiration date (and that’s being generous), an offensive coordinator who is in over his head, a head coach who refuses to fire anyone who might be failing at their job, and the prospect of having to try to recruit offensive players into literally the worst offense in college football.  The Big Ten will have 18 teams next year and they won’t finish in the top half if they continue with this offense. 

Kirk’s stubbornness has reached new heights, not only is he sticking with an offense that doesn’t work but he’s sticking with an ineffective QB who has been at Iowa all of 10 months and was only supposed to be depth at the position.  This isn’t about throwing Deacon Hill under the bus, he’s in a tough situation, but let’s be real.  Hill was supposed to transfer to Fordham when he left Wisconsin but Iowa was in desperate need of healthy QBs last spring when Cade McNamara wasn’t ready to practice and Iowa had lost two QBs to the transfer portal.  Jon Budmayr got the Hawkeyes McNamara and then they went to him again and he had a connection to Hill so Iowa gave him a shot.  Let me say this again, he was only supposed to be depth at the position, not a starter.  Somehow, he became the backup and now Ferentz won’t even give Joe Labas a chance.  I’m not sure how Hill became the unquestioned starter because it is absolutely inexplicable.  Don’t get me wrong, Labas isn’t fixing this offense (Tom Brady couldn’t fix this disaster), but the kid deserves a chance to play.  Hill is completing less than 38% of his passes so far and I just can’t believe Labas could be worse.  Sorry, I got off my point, back to Ferentz.

Kirk has abdicated his responsibility when it comes to Iowa’s offense.  He’s given up even trying to be good and last week against Minnesota it finally caught up to him.  He can piss and moan all he wants about the officials calling back Cooper DeJean’s punt return but that isn’t why Iowa lost Floyd of Rosedale.  He can even lament the fact that his QB Cade McNamara got hurt and lost his two best offensive pass catchers in TEs Luke Lachey and Erick All.  Those are excuses, his offense was terrible when he had those guys.  Kirk refuses to blame Brian, and admittedly, it’s not all Brian’s fault, it is however Kirk’s fault, all of it.  He’s the head coach, he’s the guy who won’t make the changes necessary to fix the problem, hell, he won’t even admit the real problem.  The offense is outdated, it’s pedestrian, it lacks all the hallmarks of a modern college offense.  Football has changed so much in just the past five years and Kirk Ferentz refuses to acknowledge it.  He can say he wants to play “complementary” football but it’s just an excuse for ineptitude at this point. 

Next year there is no Big Ten West to take advantage of and to make the Big Ten title game you have to finish first or second.  There is no chance with this offense Iowa finishes anywhere near that, a top half finish will be a struggle.  Kirk has a few paths forward but I have very little faith he will pick the right one.  The first one is to be remain obstinate, insist Brian gets a new contract and returns as offensive coordinator.  This seems unlikely because at this point even Kirk has to realize Brian needs to move on.  He may not like it but it’s what is best for Iowa and it’s what is best for Brian.  He needs to move on if he’s going to salvage his coaching career.  I have a hard time seeing Brian even agreeing to return, the environment at Iowa is too toxic for him now.  I have an even harder time seeing AD Beth Goetz going along with this, her first major act would alienate the football fanbase, not a great way to start. 

The second path is probably the one Kirk is most likely to feel comfortable with but Goetz shouldn’t agree to it.  Brian’s contract terminates when the Hawkeyes don’t reach the 25 points/game threshold and he moves on to a position coaching job somewhere else.  Then Kirk promotes analyst/coaching assistant (whatever his title is) Jon Budmayr to offensive coordinator and Iowa continues running Kirk’s offense with a new play caller.  This is the half measure that simply shouldn’t happen.  This is where Goetz must insist on change, that’s something that Kirk seems loathe to try.  If she agrees to let him hire Budmayr as the offensive coordinator it’s the final nail in Kirk’s career at Iowa.  Nothing will change, Iowa will finish tenth in the Big Ten at best next season and the reality will be that Kirk’s legacy at Iowa will end in a whimper.  Unfortunately, this is probably the most realistic path forward where Goetz gets “change” but doesn’t alienate Kirk by requiring real change. 

The last few paths start with Goetz absolutely insisting on real change and that goes one of two ways.  The least likely is she tells Kirk he has to hire an outside OC and he refuses and she has to fire him, that’s not happening, she’s not firing him.  The other way would be Kirk agrees to retire so everyone saves face.  This is possible but I would put it at highly unlikely, I don’t think Kirk wants to retire and I don’t think he would like feeling as though he’s being forced into it, although if he insists on the Budmayr route that’s the way it ends eventually anyway.  I don’t think he wants to go out this way so I’m hoping for the last path forward which would be for Ferentz to accept the reality of the situation and look outside his family and the Hawkeye family for some new blood.  If he wants some help with some names, I have a list (that’s not a joke, I have a list on my phone). This is the only chance Kirk has to salvage his legacy and end his career as a relevant coach. 

If Iowa falls into the middle of the Big Ten for the next three or four years, Kirk will just be a guy who coached a long time, was a good guy, had a solid career but that’s it.  He never won an outright Big Ten title, never won the Big Ten Championship game, and the question for me will always be, what could have been?  The past few years Iowa has had an elite defense and elite special teams and the team won a lot of games.  The problem is, if the offense has been good, they could have won more.  They could have made a college football playoff, they could have competed on a national level, but Ferentz wouldn’t make it happen, he wouldn’t change with the times.  Kirk has a chance to be the coach who saw the light, made the changes necessary and went out stronger at the end of his career.  The defense under Phil Parker can compete for a Big Ten title next year.  The special teams under Levar Woods can compete for a Big Ten title next year.  If Iowa has a real offense next season, the Big Ten title isn’t out of the question and making the 12-team playoff is certainly on the table.  With a new offensive coordinator, a new offensive scheme, and the transfer portal, anything is possible.  The question is, will Kirk Ferentz let it happen?  Will he make it happen?  Or, will he simply go out like so many other coaches who stayed too long and wouldn’t get out of their own way?  For now, it’s still Kirk’s choice but we aren’t far from it being Beth Goetz’s choice.     

Now give me a minute to change the name Kirk Ferentz to Bill Belichick and Beth Goetz to Robert Kraft and I’ll repost this as my thoughts on the Patriots. (The only difference is Steven Belichick isn’t part of the problem in New England, his defense is fine).      

   

I wrote this before the Chiefs/Lions game on Thursday but the outcome of that game chancged nothing I had previously thought. If anything it reinforced my thoughts on the Chiefs season probably coming up short and the Lions are good but they aren’t great yet.

MVP

Top Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Jalen Hurts, QB Josh Allen, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Justin Jefferson, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Joe Burrow, QB Justin Herbert

Sleeper: QB Trevor Lawrence

            Mahomes won the award last season for a reason, he was awesome even after they traded away Tyreek Hill.  Now he starts the season with Travis Kelce banged up, no JuJu Smith-Schuster and no Mecole Hardman.  His top WRs are Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Richie James, he’s really going to have to earn it this year.  Hurts is the engine that runs arguably the best offense in the league and if Philly keeps rolling, he could win this thing.  It’s a QB award mostly so the usual suspects are here; Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert, no surprise.  McCaffrey is the best RB in football and he could go for 1500 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving in Kyle Shanahan’s offense (maybe a slight exaggeration but just a slight one).  Jefferson is the best WR but WRs don’t win this award.  Trevor Lawrence made a leap last year with Doug Pederson being an actual NFL level coach. This year Lawrence gets Calvin Ridley, a legitimate WR1.  Lawrence is going for 5000 yards and 45 TDs. 

My Pick: Trevor Lawrence. 

Yep, I’m going with my dark horse.  Lawrence is the real deal and he shows it this year and carries the Jaguars to a division title.  I think he barely edges out Burrow, who I expect to have a great year too, the difference is people expect Burrow to be great.    

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Nick Bosa, DE/LB Micah Parsons, DE Myles Garrett, LB TJ Watt, CB Sauce Gardner

Sleepers: LB Hassan Reddick, CB Patrick Surtain II

            Bosa is the reigning defensive player of the year and while he could certainly repeat, missing all of training camp in a contract holdout probably means he starts slow.  Parsons is supposed to be moving to DE full-time but I think he’ll still play a little LB in certain situation.  Garrett is a sack machine and if the Browns are ever actually good, someone might give him some credit.  Watt is coming off an injury but he should be back and ready to dominate.  Gardner is arguably the best CB in football, teams avoid throwing his way which makes it hard for him to get the stats needed to get votes.  That’s also the plight of Surtain, he’s the guy making it an argument for best CB in football.  Reddick has found his place in Philly and he’s a top sack guy and plays LB. 

My Pick:  Micah Parsons

I picked the guy who was the dark horse for MVP but I’m picking the odds-on favorite for defensive player of the year.  No need to get cute, Parsons is going to rack up sack numbers all season long on one of the best defenses in football. He’s an emerging player and this won’t be his last defensive player of the year award.  Bosa will win more too but this one goes to Parsons. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: RB Bijan Robinson, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jordan Addison, WR Zay Flowers, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, QB Bryce Young, QB CJ Stroud, QB Anthony Richardson

Sleepers: WR Jalin Hyatt, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Sam LaPorta

Deep Sleeper: WR Cedric Tillman

            I listed a ton of rookies and almost none of them have a chance to win this award, it’s Bijan Robinson’s award to lose.  Gibbs has an outside shot because he’s a dynamic playmaker on a good offense but he won’t get the volume of Robinson.  Addison should be the best rookie receiver stats wise but his numbers will be dwarfed by Justin Jefferson.  Flowers and Njigba have too many veterans to overcome.  The QBs aren’t in great situations to win the award.  Hyatt could emerge as the deep threat in New York and his highlight reel will be fun.  Kincade and LaPorta have a chance to be good but rookie TEs are almost never that impressive.  I like Tillman if he can get on the field, he’s a playmaker. 

My Pick: Bijan Robinson

            No chance am I betting against a sure thing.  Robinson is a generational RB playing for a coach who wants to run the ball.  If McCaffrey isn’t the guy to go for 1500 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards, it’s Robinson. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Will Anderson, DT Jalen Carter, CB Christian Gonzalez, CB Devon Witherspoon, LB Jack Campbell

Sleepers: CB Emmanuel Forbes, DE Will McDonald IV, S Brian Branch

Deep Sleeper: LB Marte Mapu

            Anderson is the favorite for the award but I’m afraid he might not quite get the sack numbers necessary to get the award.  Carter is going to be in a rotation so his numbers aren’t going to be great and he’s a DT so he’s probably not going to stand out anyway.  I would love to see Gonzalez with about eight picks this year but I think teams will learn to avoid him.  Witherspoon might have a better chance of some stats with team likely avoiding Riq Woolen on the other side of him.  Campbell is going to pile up the tackle numbers but LBs rarely win individual awards, just ask Fred Warner how may defensive player of the year awards he has.  Forbes is a walking pick-six and he might have the flashy plays to get noticed.  McDonald is a pass rush specialist to start so his sack numbers might be good but will he play enough? That’s the question.  Branch is the heady safety who could shine in the slot.  Mapu is a Belichick special and he’s going to be all over the defense and the Patriots defense should be elite, I’m just not sure he’ll stand out enough this year.   

My pick:  Christian Gonzalez

            I had a really hard time picking this award (no really, I really didn’t think I would pick Gonzalez at all).  I love Gonzalez and it’s still unbelievable he fell to the Patriots in the middle of round one. There’s a chance teams figure out not to throw his way but he is a rookie so perhaps it takes them all season to figure that out. Also, the Patriots defense is going to be great so he might garner some recognition for being a big part of it.   

Postseason Picks

Super Bowl

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati

Super Bowl Champion

Cincinnati Bengals (I never thought I’d live long enough to see this happen)

Playoff Hott Reads

• It’s was equally hard narrowing down the three AFC wildcard teams as it was to come up with a third NFC wildcard team.  The AFC is stacked and Steelers, Browns or Chargers could easily make the playoffs (even the Titans wouldn’t totally surprise me).  If Tua gets hurt the Dolphins aren’t coming close to the playoffs.  I have zero faith the Packers are making the playoffs but it’s them, the Giants, the Vikings or maybe Atlanta (I’m not a fan of the Vikings or Falcons defenses).  I think the Giants and Packers tie record wise and it comes down to their head-to-head game in December, I’m going Packers.     
• I almost flipped a coin to figure out the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl team from there.  It’s tough to pick against Kansas City but they had a lot of luck with few injuries and great rookie play to get them there last year.  Travis Kelce is banged up to start the year and Chris Jones is still holding out, tough to think everything goes their way this year.
• I like the Bengals.  I love Joe Burrow.  That offense is going to be elite.  Ja’Marr Chase is going to push Justin Jefferson for the title of best WR in football.  They are going to be battle tested going through the AFC North so they will be ready for the playoffs. 
• The NFC is a four-team race to me; Eagles, 49ers, Lions, and Cowboys.  I’m picking San Francisco over the Eagles because they almost beat the Eagles last year in the playoffs without a functioning QB. As long as Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold can play, they should be fine. 

Regular Season Hott Reads

• So that was all a bunch of the good stuff for the year, what about the bad?  I think it’s quite clear Arizona is going to be the worst team, even if Kyler gets back.  I mentioned they should trade guys like DJ Humphries and Budda Baker.  Humphries to the Jets (please no) or the Patriots (hell yes) seems possible.  Baker should go to a team trying to win, might I suggest Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or Jacksonville. 
• I think Kyler comes back at some point in October but that doesn’t help and he’s playing for Atlanta, Minnesota, or my favorite choice, Las Vegas, next year. 
• Speaking of Las Vegas lets take a look at who the first coach fired might be…sorry did I give it away?  I actually think it could be a two-man race between Josh McDaniels and Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay.  Sorry but these two just seem like dead men walking.  While one is an offensive guy and one is a defensive guy, they do have some things in common.  Both are second-time head coaches and both are probably better suited to be coordinators on their respective sides of the ball.  I’ll choose McDaniels to go first because the Raiders have several potential interim head coaches already on staff; DC Patrick Graham, WR coach Edgar Bennett, Senior Defensive Assistant Rob Ryan, Passing game coordinator Scott Turner or OC Mick Lombardi.  The Bucs staff has less obvious candidates, maybe special team’s coordinator Keith Armstrong, he’s been in the league forever. OC Dave Canales is in his first year as a coordinator and the two co-DCs don’t have a ton of experience either.
• There are other coaches who should be worried about their jobs.  Ron Rivera is a well-respected man in the NFL but Washington is looking for a fresh start and it’s going to take a heck of year to save him.  Kevin Stefanski needs to get the Browns very close to the playoffs at the very least or he’s getting replaced.  If Robert Saleh doesn’t win with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, they go looking for a new leader.  If Arthur Smith’s offense doesn’t take off in Atlanta or Dennis Allen doesn’t compete in New Orleans, those two could be looking for work.  Brandon Staley needs to take the Chargers to the playoffs or his ready-made replacement, Kellen Moore, will have his job.  Finally, if Matthew Stafford doesn’t rebound and decides to call it a career and the Rams don’t get a pick high enough to take either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, Sean McVay will be calling Thursday Night Football on Amazon in 2024, he won’t get fired, he’ll walk away for a few years. 
• We could be in for some impressive offensive years out of certain players.  I think Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are going to go ballistic in receiving yardage with Tyreek Hill probably not far behind.  The dark horse pick to be in the top five in receiving yardage is Calvin Ridley, he seems to have a good rapport with Trevor Lawrence already.
• Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson are all going to be elite RBs who are also excellent in the passing game, this much we know.  Two guys who could really break out as runners and receivers are Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard.  Chubb has always been an elite runner but the passing work went to Kareem Hunt.  With Hunt gone, Chubb should be some more use catching the ball.  Pollard has always been a weapon and now he’ll get the bulk of the running work and the passing game work.  The workloads from last season of Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry scare me a bit but they are still great players, just not sure they can match the production. 
• Bill Belichick needs Bill O’Brien to save his ass after last year’s offensive debacle and I think he does.  The Patriots won’t have an elite offense but they won’t look ridiculous like last season.  If the offense overachieves than O’Brien can head off to a head coaching job and Josh McDaniels can return for his third stint as OC (I’m not excited about that prospect). 
• I think Justin Fields takes a leap this year.  Having a better offensive line and WR DJ Moore is truly game changing.  Unfortunately, it might not improve their record by that much because I do not like their defense, especially up front. 
• The Chargers are one of the more intriguing teams of the year.  Going from Joe Lombardi at OC to Kellen Moore is a major upgrade, now Moore just needs to get Justin Herbert to throw it downfield.  The offensive line should be much improved with Rashawn Slater back from injury so Herbert should have time.  If Brandon Staley screws this up, he’s going to be someone’s defensive coordinator in 2024.    
• There are two first-year head coaches who should be worried about being one-and-done with their respective teams.  Frank Reich needs to get the offense playing well around Bryce Harper, I don’t think owner David Tepper is going to have a lot of patience.  Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon is not set up for success and if the Cardinals are worried that Caleb Williams might not want to play for them, they could make a play for USC head coach Lincoln Riley.  I think GM Monti Ossenfort is smart enough not to repeat the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray debacle (that was Steve Keim’s mess just to be clear), but I’m almost certain owner Michael Bidwell isn’t. 
• The top four picks in the 2024 NFL draft will be USC QB Caleb Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye, Ohio St. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and Penn St. OT Olu Fashanu.  Not necessarily in that order but something close to it.  Unless Williams decides he really doesn’t want to play for the Cardinals.