Disclaimer: There is something everyone needs to know about this draft. Somewhere around the middle of round five this draft took a serious dive in quality. There were somewhere around 150-160 good prospects in this draft and then there was a cliff. Some teams reached before the 150th pick so the depth goes a little farther but by the time rounds six and seven came around, it got pretty bleak. There were a few contributing factors. One is the covid year has given players the opportunity to stay in college for an extra year and plenty of guys are taking that opportunity. Second is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities for guys to make money in college. Being a late round pick isn’t as attractive if you can get paid to be a good player in college. Finally, the transfer portal (coupled with NIL) means guys don’t have to go pro to cash in. If another school wants you more than the one you’re at (this is especially true for small school guys), just transfer somewhere and take the payday. There are usually between 100-130 early entry candidates for the draft, this year, there were less than 60 and it showed.

Chicago Bears

(1) Caleb Williams QB USC
(9) Rome Odunze WR Washington
(75) Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale
(122) Tory Taylor P Iowa
(144) Austin Booker DE Kansas

Immediate Impact: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, P Tory Taylor
I don’t think I have to explain the fact that Williams will have an immediate impact. The Bears have built a readymade offense for him to step into and this franchise wants to win now, they have been waiting awhile. Odunze might only be the third WR with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen bringing more experience but Odunze will make his mark. Taylor steps in as the starting punter and just like he did for Iowa’s defense, he’ll make the Bears defense better by pinning their opponents deep. I’m not sure if the Bears will have a gunner like Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, who had a unique connection with Taylor, but for their sake, they should hope he finds one.

Best Value: WR Rome Odunze

He may have been the ninth overall pick but his ceiling is being one of the top five WRs in the NFL. He’s not likely to get there in the next year or two while Moore and Allen are around but he will eventually be one of the elite receivers in the league.

Sleeper: DE Austin Booker

The Bears were out of picks after the Taylor pick in round four and then they traded picks in next year’s draft to get into the fifth round to take Booker as he fell. Booker has great length for a DE at 6’6 but he’s a bit light and plays too upright. Teams are intrigued by his physical profile and athleticism. Booker isn’t going to come in and start and probably isn’t going to play much initially, at best he’s a situational rusher. However, with some time in the weight room and some real coaching of his technique, he has a chance to be a good DE.

Overall Analysis

This draft class was small and it will be judged by Caleb Williams’ career, there’s no getting around that. Odunze is going to be great, not good, great. Taking a chance on Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie was a solid choice. He has all the measurables of a starting LT, he just isn’t ready for NFL competition. With Braxton Jones at LT, Amegadjie is an investment in the future. I’m a fan of Jones but if he doesn’t work out in a year or two, Amegadjie might be an option to replace him. Most people don’t like teams taking a punter in round four but Taylor is the exception, the Bears defense just got better, he’s a field position weapon. Booker is raw but moldable, he’s a solid choice in round five.

Detroit Lions

(24) Terrion Arnold CB Alabama
(61) Ennis Rakestraw CB Missouri
(126) Giovanni Manu OT British Columbia
(132) Sione Vaki S/RB Utah
(189) Mekhi Wingo DT LSU
(210) Christian Mahogany OG Boston College

Immediate Impact: CB Terrion Arnold

The Lions roster is in pretty good shape except for in the secondary. Arnold was a gift at 24th overall after defensive players got pushed down by the run of offensive players to start the draft. Arnold should start opposite Carlton Davis III as the other outside CB. He’s the perfect fit for the Detroit defense and he’s the exact personality Dan Campbell wants on his team. Arnold should ascend to be the CB1 over Davis pretty quickly in Detroit.

Best Value: CB Terrion Arnold

The offensive player run to start the draft pushed really good defensive players down the board and Arnold was one of many defenders who ended up as great value picks towards the end of round one.

Sleeper: OG Christian Mahogany

Mahogany was probably a higher rated prospect going into the year and then his play was a little up and down this season. He’s still a talented interior blocker and has starter potential. The Lions re-signed Graham Glasgow and signed Kevin Zeitler to fill the holes at OG so Mahogany will be a backup this season. Zeitler is already 34 and Glasgow will be 32 so Mahogany won’t have to sit too long before he has a chance to take a job and I think he can be a long-term starter in the league.

Overall Analysis
Arnold was a huge pick for a team in desperate need to overhaul its CB group this off season. Between that pick and the Davis trade, they made some serious upgrades. I haven’t been a big Ennis Rakestraw fan but as a guy who will only be asked to be the fourth or fifth CB on this roster (depending on Emmanual Mosely’s health), that’s a good place for him. He upgrades the overall talent in the secondary. OT Giovanni Manu was a bit of a reach even in round four. He’s an international prospect that is going to take a while to become anything. However, he is 6’8 350 lbs. so there is something there to work with. The Lions just lost Matt Nelson, a guy who played DT at Iowa who they developed over several years into a legitimate swing tackle so they should have a plan for Manu.

Sione Vaki is an interesting prospect because he played both ways at Utah. He is a safety who’s a bit limited overall but he also played RB and was actually pretty good. The Lions have plenty of depth at RB so he’s probably going to have a better shot at safety but I think initially he’s on special teams and just a versatile player they can use anywhere. DT Mekhi Wingo is a slightly undersized penetrating tackle who will be a deep backup they hope to develop behind Alim McNeil.

Green Bay Packers

(25) Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
(45) Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M
(58) Javon Bullard S Georgia
(88) MarShawn Lloyd RB USC
(91) Ty’Ron Hopper LB Missouri
(111) Evan Williams S Oregon
(163) Jacob Monk OL Duke
(169) Kitan Oladapo CB Oregon St.
(202) Travis Glover OT Georgia St.
(245) Michael Pratt QB Tulane
(255) Kalen King CB Penn St.

Immediate Impact: OT Jordan Morgan, S Javon Bullard

Morgan was a multiple year starter at LT at Arizona and while most teams had him pegged to be a guard, in Green Bay’s offense he could play tackle. I think it’s more likely he plays RT and they move Zach Tom inside but Morgan could replace Rasheed Wallace at LT potentially. The good thing about Morgan is he could play four different positions so he will allow the Packers to find their best combination of five blockers up front. Bullard is a bit undersized and was a late second-round pick but he’s a stud safety. He can team with Xavier McKinney and be the starter immediately given the competition at the position.

Best Value: S Javon Bullard, RB MarShawn Lloyd

Bullard may be a bit small but he’s just a tough football player and he’s going to be a starter. Lloyd is a very talented RB and if Josh Jacobs gets injured or just nicked up, it could be Lloyd and not AJ Dillon who ends up as the replacement back. He has some nice long-term potential as the starter once Jacobs is gone.

Sleeper: QB Michael Pratt

Pratt isn’t a threat to Jordan Love but if I’m Sean Clifford I’m not feeling so great. I’ve never understood what Green Bay sees in Clifford but Pratt is a good player. I can see Pratt replacing Clifford and if for any reason the Packers need someone to stand in for Love, Pratt could show he’s a pretty good. I think he could also do that in the preseason and eventually be a guy a team takes a chance on.

Overall Analysis
The Packers have a big draft class with 11 players and there is no way that many guys are making the roster. Morgan will be a starter somewhere on the line. Edgerrin Cooper is a plus athlete but he’s raw and undisciplined and needs some coaching. They can find a place to use him but he’ll take a little time. Bullard can start and excel. Lloyd will prove to be a valuable RB for the team. LB Ty’Ron Hopper gives the Packers some depth and I would guess he’ll be a special teams player.
The end of the draft wasn’t great for anyone so the Packers just took players at positions where they need help. S Evan Williams, CB Kitan Oladapo, and CB Kalen King are dice rolls. King was a guy who was highly thought of early in his career and then fell off a cliff with his play. Jacob Monk and Travis Glover are offensive linemen who should be competition for depth on the roster but probably not guys you want to count on. I like Pratt, he has a chance.

Minnesota Vikings

(10) JJ McCarthy QB Michigan
(17) Dallas Turner Edge Alabama
(108) Khyree Jackson CB Oregon
(177) Walter Rouse OT Oklahoma
(203) Will Reichard K Alabama
(230) Michael Jurgens OL Wake Forest
(232) Levi Drake Rodriguez DL Texas A&M Commerce

Immediate Impact: QB JJ McCarthy, Edge Dallas Turner

They can talk all they want about Sam Darnold but they took McCarthy 10th overall, he’s not backing up Sam Darnold. McCarthy is in an elite situation for a rookie QB with arguably the best WR in football, a really good WR2, and one of the best TEs in the game. His offensive line is solid and his head coach’s offensive system is built for his skillset. Turner may not initially start with the team signing Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel but he’s going to play a lot. Turner has the versatility Brian Flores loves and he’ll be a big part of the defense.

Best Value: Edge Dallas Turner

Turner might be the best pass rusher in this draft and because of how it fell he went 17th overall. He’s a perfect fit for the scheme and he’s going to outplay being the 17th overall player in this draft.

Sleeper: CB Khyree Jackson

He may have been a fourth-round pick but this guy is a player. He’s a long CB at 6’4 with excellent speed for a guy his size (4.5 in the 40). His size works against his technique because he doesn’t sink his hips as well and isn’t smooth turning and maintaining coverage. That said, this CB group in Minnesota isn’t great so he can earn some playing time. He needs reps and with a defensive mind like Brian Flores coaching him, he’ll get the best out of him.

Overall Analysis
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did some wheeling and dealing to end up with his QB at ten and then an awesome edge rusher at 17. McCarthy fits this offense well and he’ll be pretty good. Turner is going to shine in this defense. They waited a long time after the first round to pick but I like Jackson and he can fill a need for this team. OT Walter Rouse was a solid investment for team that could use a good backup OT. Drafting kickers can be tricky but Will Reichard steps in immediately and he’s kicked in big games for Alabama, I expect him to be solid. Jurgens and Rodriguez are late round flyers on guys who might add depth on the line, never bad idea.

Just my thoughts from day two (rounds 2 &3). 

• The Bills traded from the last pick of round one (#32) to the first pick of round two (#33) and stole the WR I wanted for the Patriots, Keon Coleman.  Coleman was the guy I mocked to the Bills in my early mock drafts in round one, apparently, they did like him.  He’s going to be good.
• Once Coleman was gone the Patriots moved down from 34 to 37 giving the Chargers a chance to move up to get the WR they wanted, Ladd McConkey.  He’s the perfect Jim Harbaugh WR, he’s tough but not flashy.  McConkey is a good player but I’m glad the Patriots passed, I think he might be redundant with Demario Douglas already in the slot. 
• The Falcons continue to boggle the mind by trading up in round two to take a DT but instead of taking Jer’Zhan Newton, they took Ruke Orhorhoro.  Newton is a plug-and-play guy and Orhorhoro is a project, also, this team has bigger needs than DT depth.  The Falcons are confounding. 
• Washington isn’t a team with a dire need at DT either with Jonathan Allen and DaRon Payne but at least they took Newton is was just too good to pass up.  Allen is also going to be 29 and is pretty expensive so Newton was great value and this team just needs talent. 
• The Patriots come around at 37 and take WR Ja’Lynn Polk, one of My Guys.  I love this pick.  There were a lot of WRs still available but I love Polk for Drake Maye’s sake.  Polk is a ball winner, he catches everything.  Maye won’t have to be perfect with his placement because Polk has a huge catch radius.  He’s not the biggest, or the fastest guy, he’s just a pure receiver.  He’s going to be a better pro than some of the WRs from round one. 
• The Titans took DT T’Vondre Sweat.  A guy who admitted he “used to” party too much but he was over that, and then got a DUI three weeks ago.  This isn’t going to end well.
• The Rams must have loved the Florida St. defensive line film because they took Jared Verse in round one and then traded up to take his teammate DT Braden Fiske.  He’s not great but he’s solid. 
• Finally, the Eagles ended the nightmare when they traded up and took Cooper DeJean with the 40^th pick overall.  They took CB Quinyon Mitchell in round one and moved up to get DeJean, clearly Howie Roseman wasn’t going to let the team endure the terrible secondary they had last season again.  DeJean is going to play all over Vic Fangio’s defensive backfield and Fangio is going to love DeJean’s football IQ.  Amazing value for the Eagles and I think a very good landing spot for DeJean.
• That pick started a run on CBs.  Kool-Aid McKinstry goes to the Saints, Kamari Lassiter to the Texans, and Max Melton to the Cardinals.  McKinstry gets a good situation with Marshon Lattimore as the #1 CB with Paulson Adebo entering the last year of his contract.  Lassiter is a small CB with slow timed speed but he’s a smart football player going to play for DeMeco Ryans.  If anyone gets the best out of Lassiter, it’s Ryans.  Melton looks the part of a good CB and he will get every chance to start because Arizona’s secondary is terrible.
• The Raiders steal Jackson Powers-Johnson and he’s an immediate starting guard for them. They followed that up with taking OT Delmar Glaze from Maryland in round three.  Glaze can compete to start at RT for them so they did a very nice job adding to the offensive line. 
• The Packers took uber-athlete Edgerrin Cooper to go with Quay Walker at LB, he’s raw but talented.  The also took S Javon Bullard from Georgia who can also help Xavier McKinney in the middle of the field.  Their choice of RB Marshawn Lloyd from USC in round three was great.  I like Lloyd as a better backup to Josh Jacobs than even AJ Dillon.  Lloyd does everything well. 
• The Panthers traded up to get RB Jonathan Brooks from Texas.  Brooks tore his ACL in November so it’s no guarantee he’s ready to go to start the season.  Once he’s healthy, he’s a great back but I’m not sure how much he helps this year.  They also took LB Trevin Wallace in round three, he’s going to have to sit and learn, he’s a great athlete with not great instincts. 
• The Giants took S Tyler Nubin in round two and CB Andru Phillips in round three, awesome job.  Those two will really help a secondary that needs it. 
• I gave Trent Baalke credit for getting Brian Thomas Jr. in round one, he was a steal.  Apparently, Baalke wanted to get back into my bad graces because he took DT Maason Smith, a good athlete but not a great player in round two and then CB Jarrian Jones in round three.  Jones is another athlete without any refined skills.  These guys aren’t difference makers. 
• The Bengals took DT Kris Jenkins from Michigan, he’s a going to be a more productive pro than he was at Michigan.  He’s good.  They also took NT McKinley Jackson, a true nose tackle to replace DJ Reader.  He’s a nice complement to Jenkins.  Between those picks they took a flyer on WR Jermain Burton. Burton is a supremely talented WR who has serious character issues.  The Bengals have never shied away from those guys but Burton can be a headcase on the field.  He’s been referred to as “uncoachable” by several different coaches. 
• Washington was a team with a ton of second day picks and they followed the Jer’Zhan Newton pick up with some really good football players.  CB Mike Sanristil is going to be one of the best nickel backs in the league.  The took TE Ben Sinnott who is just a tough, athletic guys who can play all over and will a tone setter.  OT Brandon Coleman is a big dude who moves well and has a legitimate shot at the LT job.  They finished off day two with WR Luke McCaffrey, Christian’s little brother.  He hasn’t been a WR very long so he’s still learning but he could fill the Curtis Samuel role on this offense and maybe even stay healthy long enough to play in actual games. 
• The Steelers might just be acing this draft.  After taking Troy Fautanu in round one they got C Zach Frazier in round two.  Now Fautanu is clearly staying at OT because Frazier is going to be a day one starter at center and he’s going to be the perfect Steelers’ center.  WR Roman Wilson in round three is highway robbery.  This team regularly drafts day two WRs who are awesome, Wilson will continue the trend.  Finally, they took LB Payton Wilson, an incredibly athletic LB with great speed and a questionable medical history.  He may not have long career but he’ll be a good ILB for the Steelers and they need more than just Patrick Queen there. 
• The Colts took the risk on Adonai Mitchell who fell to 52^nd overall.  It’s a risk worth taking for a guy whose skillset complements Michael Pittman and Josh Downs.  If he hits, he can be a true #1 WR, if not, they still have Alec Pierce.
• The Dolphins followed up the Chop Robinson pick in round one with a raw OT prospect Patrick Paul from Houston.  He could replace Terron Armstead someday. 
• Dallas took Tyler Guyton late in round one, a worthy choice.  In round two they took DE Marshawn Kneeland at 56 and he could be a steal, even if he isn’t a star someday, he’s a nice pickup.  Then they got Cooper Beebe in round three.  Beebe mostly played guard but I think there is a good chance he wins the center job next season and if he does, they just got two starting offensive lineman, that’s really good for them.  The choice of LB Marist Liufau was terrible, that was a massive reach, he’s more like a 6^th round pick. 
• Tampa Bay took DE Chris Braswell, he fits their scheme well.  S Tykee Smith is a solid nickel back for their defense.  Then they took one of my other favorite guys WR Jalen McMillen.  It’s a little unfortunate for him because they have Chris Godwin in the slot so McMillen won’t get a lot of playing time right away but if they have to move off of Godwin for salary purposes at some point, they have a great replacement. 
• The Texans were part of the run on CBs earlier with Kamari Lassiter but they followed up with OT Blake Fisher and then S Calen Bullock in round three.  Fisher has some talent and with RT Titus Howard hurt so often Fisher is a nice addition, he could take Howard’s job if Howard misses too much time.  Bullock missed a lot of tackles at USC but USC’s defense was atrocious and he has a ton of physical skill.  Maybe DeMeco Ryans teaches him how to take the correct angle and actually wrap a guy up and Bullock becomes a much better player. 
• The Lions followed up their great Terrion Arnold pick in round one with another CB Ennis Rakestraw in round two.  I’m not a big Rakestraw fan but he’s a scrappy player who plays with an attitude and he just went to the perfect team for him.  He won’t have to be a starter in Detroit and his mentality fits right in.  If Rakestraw is going to be a good pro, it’s because he’s going to the right place. 
• The Ravens came back around in round two and found their starting RT.  Roger Rosengarten wasn’t talked about much because he was overshadowed on an amazing Washington offense in college but he’s a good RT.  He protected Michael Penix’s blindside since Penix is a lefty.  Rosengarten will be fine starting immediately.  They also took edge rusher Adisa Isaac, the Penn St. pass rusher who was actually a good pass rusher, imagine that.  I expect Isaac to have more sacks in Baltimore next season than Chop Robinson has in Miami. 
• I hated the Chiefs trade up for WR Xavier Worthy in round one.  I love their trade up for Kingsley Suiamataia in round two.  He’s not a finished product but playing for Andy Reid and playing with Patrick Mahomes will be the best thing for him. 
• The Jets started off round three with WR Malachi Corley.  He’s the perfect complementary piece to Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams, the question is; will Aaron Rodgers ever look to him?  He’s a really good run after the catch player, that offense could use that. 
• The Cardinals had a crapload of picks after their two first rounders.  After CB Max Melton, who came in the run of CBs, they took; RB Trey Benson, G Isaiah Adams, TE Tip Reiman, and CB Elijah Jones. I love the Benson pick.  He’s a perfect pairing with James Connor.  Benson isn’t an every down back but he has the speed and burst to take any carry to the house, unlike Connor who’s a grinder.  Isaiah Adams can start immediately at guard and he makes their line better.  TE Tip Reiman is a big, physical blocking TE, the perfect player opposite Trey McBride.  Jones isn’t a guy I would think could start for a team but this is the Cardinals secondary we’re talking about, he’s at least going to play. 
• The Chargers finally fulfilled the Jim Harbaugh connection by drafting LB Junior Colson in round three.  Colson is a steal in round three because he’s an immediate starter at LB and he’s almost assuredly the play caller on defense.  He already knows the defense after being the MLB for Jesse Minter’s defense at Michigan last year.  He’s the best LB on the team and they need his tackling to sure up their weak run defense.  Outstanding pick and he might be my early frontrunner for defensive rookie of the year. 

That’s my wrap up of day two.  The third day of the draft will bring some fun players into the NFL and some good stories.  I expect P Tory Taylor, DT Logan Lee, and TE Erick All to be drafted from the Hawkeyes.  I wouldn’t mind seeing the Patriots double up at WR by drafting Troy Franklin or Devontez Walker to get some deep speed on the team and then they can cut Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster to make room. They can also grab another OT like Christian Jones and I wouldn’t complain. They should take a TE to backup Hunter Henry because he gets banged up and I don’t trust Austin Hooper.  Ja’Tavion Sanders has slipped or Erick All would be a nice pickup late. 

Some of the guys I’m watching to see where they go today because they are good or interesting players.  CB TJ Tampa, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, QB Spencer Rattler, QB Michael Pratt, WR Malik Washington, WR Brenden Rice, and RB Cody Schrader.  I’ll get to my team break downs as soon as possible after the draft concludes.    

Well, you can’t say that wasn’t interesting.  Six QBs in the top 12, a stunning pick at eight overall, and 14 straight offensive players to start the draft.  After my five mock draft and the billions of other mocks people did across the internet, we all got the top four right, we should have known the fifth pick, and then at eight, it got weird.  Let’s take a look.

1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams     QB     USC

The Bears just drafted the best QB in franchise history (I know, I said the same thing about Justin Fields three years ago, it was true then too).  The difference is Williams is about to lead the best Bears offense ever because he has help and his coordinator is an actual coordinator and not Luke Getsy. 

2. Washington Commanders:  Jayden Daniels     QB    LSU

The Heisman trophy winner becomes the face of the franchise for the new and improved Washington team.  He’s going to be running for his life if they don’t draft some lineman but he won’t be boring.  Thank you, Adam Peters, for this next pick.

3. New England Patriots:  Drake Maye     QB     North Carolina

I was so bummed when the Patriots ended up with the third pick because I thought they had blown their chance at getting Maye, instead they get the steal of the draft.  He’s everything Mac Jones wasn’t.  He’s a leader, he has all the physical tools to be a star, and I can’t wait to watch him.  Now, go get him some help.

4. Arizona Cardinals:  Marvin Harrison Jr.     WR     Ohio St.

Monti Ossenfort didn’t get cute and he got a superstar.  Harrison is going to be awesome.  He walks in on day one as WR1 and he’ll catch 100 passes this year. 

5. Los Angeles Chargers:  Joe Alt     OT     Notre Dame

How did we all miss this one?  We knew Jim Harbaugh wanted to build in the trenches and we knew it would be really expensive for team to trade up.  So, Harbaugh stays here and picks the best offensive tackle in the draft.  It made so much sense, no one saw it coming. 

6. New York Giants:  Malik Nabers     WR     LSU

I had the Giants picking Odunze so I had the right position but my Odunze love colored my judgement.  They went with the guy so many people had as the second best WR and it makes sense.  Now, if they only had a QB who could throw it to him. 

7. Tennessee Titans: JC Latham     OT     Alabama

Latham was always hard to project because he’s a specific type of mauler who only played RT.  Turns out he ends up going to a team with one of the best offensive line coaching in the game, Bill Callahan, who loves those guys.  I’m a little skeptical that Latham can play LT but Callahan turned Jedrick Wills Jr. into a solid LT in Cleveland, if he can do that, I’m not counting out Latham. 

8. Atlanta Falcons:  Michael Penix Jr.     QB    Washington

The stupidest pick in draft history? Possibly.  This one shocked everyone but Falcons GM Terry Fontenot.  He just spent $100 million guaranteed to sign Kirk Cousins and then he takes a QB with the eighth pick, WTF?  This isn’t even a developmental player who needs to sit for a couple of years, Penix is about to turn 24.  I’m fairly certain the Falcons, who plan to try to win right now, could have used a difference maker here at #8 overall.  I’m not a Penix fan anyway but this is incredibly bad team building.  Your defense needed help and every defensive player is still on the board and there are at least 12 defenders who would have an immediate impact on the defense. 

9. Chicago Bears:  Rome Odunze     WR     Washington

Yeah, about that “best Bears offense ever” I mentioned earlier.  Here’s the guy to put it over the top.  He’s the perfect fit in an offense with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift.  He’s the big, physical downfield receiver who will dominate in the red zone and he’s always available whenever Caleb wants to scramble around and make a play. 

10. Minnesota Vikings:  JJ McCarthy     QB     Michigan

The Vikings didn’t have to make a major move up (they flipped spots with the Jets) to get their QB.  McCarthy is the more athletic version of Brock Purdy and in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, that will be perfect.  He’s set up to succeed with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and a solid offensive line. 

11. New York Jets:  Olu Fashanu     OT     Penn St.

The Jets did the smart thing after signing two 33-year-old OTs in free agency, they drafted a great OT prospect.  Fashanu is going to be excellent and he isn’t even going to be thrown into the starting lineup until Tyron Smith gets hurt, so around week 5 probably. 

12. Denver Broncos:  Bo Nix     QB     Oregon

Can you smell that?  That’s desperation.  Sean Payton traded for Zack Wilson last week and now he drafts Bo Nix at 12, he’s grasping at straws.  I don’t think either of those guys beats out Jarrett Stidham in a fair fight but now that Nix was taken 12^th overall, I think the fight is fixed.  Payton hopes Nix is his new Brees, the problem is Nix is Drew Brees his last two years when he wasn’t very good.  

13. Las Vegas Raiders:  Brock Bowers     TE     Georgia

I get going best player available and Bowers’ skillset fits in nicely with Devante Adams and Jokobi Meyers at WR and Michael Mayer as the traditional TE.  However, the QBs are Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell and you probably need two starters on the offensive line.  Bowers may languish in an offense that doesn’t have the ability to use his gifts.  

14.  New Orleans Saints:  Taliese Fuaga     OT     Oregon St.

He’s a day one starter, I’m just not sure if it’s at LT, RT, or LG.  Either way, he’s a quality starting offensive lineman and they should probably draft more of these in this draft.  Fuaga will be good, he may never be a perennial Pro Bowler but he’s solid. 

15. Indianapolis Colts:  Laiatu Latu     DE     UCLA

The first defender off the board is Latu.  He’s a great technical pass rusher who probably tops out as a 10-12 sack guy but he’ll get those 10-12 sacks every year for the next 8-10 years if stays healthy.  I’m a little shocked they didn’t take a CB with the massive need they have there and every defender still on the board. 

16. Seattle Seahawks:  Byron Muphy II     DT     Texas

I can’t say I’m surprised because Murphy fits what Mike Macdonald, the new head coach likes to do.  Macdonald had Justin Madubuike in Baltimore last year and he was awesome, Murphy can be that guy.  This makes Seattle’s defense much better up front. 

17. Minnesota Vikings: Dallas Turner     Edge     Alabama

The Vikings move up again, this time six spots, and take a guy who shouldn’t still be available and is a perfect fit in Brian Flores’ defense.  Flores comes from the Belichick school of defense where he likes defenders who can do multiple things.  Turner is a really good pass rusher who can also drop in coverage and hold his own.  He gives Flores the ability to disguise any and all looks and that should scare people. 

18. Cincinnati Bengals:  Amarius Mims     OT    Georgia

The Bengals continue a trend of drafting guys a year before they will likely need them.  Trent Brown is on a one-year deal at RT and Mims needs some time to develop.  He will likely have to play 8-9 games this year when Trent Brown gets hurt because that’s inevitable, but he should be good by then.  Also, the Bengals’ OTs are Olando Brown Jr. who is 6’8 345 lbs., Trent Brown who is 6’8 355 lbs., and Mims who is 6’8 340 lbs., that’s insane.  This was literally the only place Mims could go where he’d be the little guy at OT. 

19. Los Angeles Rams:  Jared Verse     DE     Florida St.

The Rams needed help on their defense and Verse is a guy who steps in immediately and gives them actual help.  He’s a pocket pusher as a rusher and he’s very good against the run.  Verse makes this defense better. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Troy Fautanu     OL     Washington

Fautanu is a good player and it will be interesting to see where they play him.  Most teams had him rated as a guard but that’s the one place the Steelers are good on the line.  He can play LT but he doesn’t have prototypical length for it.  The question that brings up is whether he is a better option at OT than Dan Moore Jr.  They also have Broderick Jones at RT and could move him to LT.  The other thought is could he move to center, another spot where the Steelers need help. 

21. Miami Dolphins:  Chop Robinson     Edge     Penn St.

Famous quote from Brad Pitt in Moneyball “if he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good,” that’s what I think of when I watch Robinson.  If he’s such a good pass rusher, why did he only have four sacks last year at Penn St.  He has a electric first step, but it takes more than one step to get the QB. I’ve never seen an edge rusher take one step and sack a QB on his second step.  It doesn’t get easier to rush the passer in the NFL, I’ve seen too many of these guys fail to believe he’ll be any different. 

22. Philadelphia Eagles:  Quinyon Mitchell     CB    Toledo

This is a frickin steal for the Eagles.  Mitchell is the best CB in this draft and they just got him at 22.  James Bradberry’s days are numbered in Philly.  Mitchell comes in and he can start immediately opposite Darius Slay and he eventually replaces Slay as CB1. 

23. Jacksonville Jaguars:  Brian Thomas Jr.     WR     LSU

I have to admit, well played by Trent Baalke.  He traded down six spots and got a potential #1 WR in Thomas.  Thomas needs a little time to hone his skills but I like him better than every WR they have, especially Gabe Davis. 

24. Detroit Lions:  Terrion Arnold     CB     Alabama

This is another ridiculous steal.  Arnold is the perfect Detroit CB.  He is an absolute dawg and Dan Campbell is going to love this guy.  He can play inside or outside and he’ll work perfectly in Aaron Glenn’s defense.  This could not have fallen better for a team desperate for a starting CB. The NFC North is going to be a dog fight.  

25. Green Bay Packers:  Jordan Morgan     OT     Arizona

A lot of scouts have Morgan pegged as a guard but I think they will give him a shot to win the RT job so they can move Zach Tom inside to center.  If not, Morgan replaces Jon Runyan Jr. at OG and he’ll be very good.  This was the first place where I wondered about Cooper DeJean not going in round one because he would have been an excellent fit in Green Bay and the Packers tend to love Hawkeyes. 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Graham Barton     OL     Duke

Robert Hainsey was okay at center last year but I think Barton takes the job and kicks Hainsey out to LG which might be a better spot for him anyway.  If they team wants to keep Hainsey at center because he has some experience than Barton plays LG and he and Tristan Wirfs form a Pro Bowl left side in Tampa for the next half decade. 

27.  Arizona Cardinals:  Darius Robinson     DL     Missouri

Arizona’s defensive line is made up of a bunch of guys nobody else wanted so this isn’t surprising.  I am a little surprised they didn’t grab DeJean because they need CB help just as much as they need d-line help and I think DeJean is a better player. 

28. Kansas City Chiefs:  Xavier Worthy     WR     Texas

The Chiefs traded up to make a pick I hate.  Did the Chiefs forget they already signed Marquise Brown?  Brown is 5’9 170 lbs. and only known for his speed.  Worthy is 5’11 165 lbs. and is only known for his 4.21 forty at the combine.  I understand the thought that Patrick Mahomes can make any WR better but that didn’t work for Mecole Hardman and to me I’m not sure Worthy is more than just a skinny, faster version of Hardman.  They needed a guy with some size to give them a complement to Brown’s speed.  This feels like the WR version of the Clyde Edwards-Helaire pick after their first Super Bowl, the just went for the shiny object.   

29. Dallas Cowboys:  Tyler Guyton     OT     Oklahoma

The Cowboys move down and still get the OT they need.  Guyton is pretty raw but he has skill and beggars can’t be choosers.  It will be interesting how they bring him along.  They can throw him out there immediately and let him take his lumps or let Tyler Smith start at LT and give Guyton some time. 

30. Baltimore Ravens:  Nate Wiggins     CB     Clemson

I don’t like to question Baltimore’s first round picks; they are historically very good at these things.  However, they lost three starting offensive linemen in the off season and LT Ronnie Stanley hasn’t been the picture of health.  Lamar Jackson is going to be running for his life if the start Daniel Faalele at RT and Ben Cleveland at RG.  They know what they’re doing when they draft DBs but o-line is such a glaring need. 

31. San Francisco 49ers:  Ricky Pearsall     WR     Florida

Clearly, they are planning or life after either Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk.  Kyle Shanahan knows what he needs to keep his offense humming and Pearsall feels like a good fit.  There are WRs I like better but this pick is understandable.

32. Carolina Panthers:  Xavier Leggett     WR     South Carolina

The Panthers got antsy and moved up one spot so they could get the WR they like in Leggett.  I’m not sure how Leggett is much different than Jonathan Mingo, who they drafted in the second-round last year but they must see something.  I’m not Leggett’s biggest fan, he was a fifth-year senior breakout player who hadn’t done much of anything for four years.  There are a number of WRs I like a lot better and I certainly didn’t see the need to move up into round one to get Leggett when you had the next pick.  

Second Round thoughts

I’m stunned Cooper DeJean didn’t get picked in round one and not just because I’m a Hawkeye fan.  I think the thing that conspired against him was no defensive players off the board in the first 14 picks and then no CBs until pick 22.  Teams over drafted two QBs and four edge rushers went before any of the top CBs.  It’s a tough beat for DeJean considering he could have returned to Iowa to be a part of their elite defense again.  The good news is the first five teams that pick in round two could all use a CB so I hope his wait isn’t too long.   

Other guys who I thought were first round guys were C Jackson Powers-Johnson and DT Jer’Zhan Newton but their falls are a little more understandable.  Powers-Johnson only has one year of experience at center. Newton is coming off foot surgery that certainly could have given some teams some pause.  Kool-Aid McKinstry is also a little surprising but he hasn’t been as highly rated as he once was and the CB position fall hurt him too. 

At WR, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  I like Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, Troy Franklin and even Ja’Lynn Polk more than Worthy, Pearsall, and Leggett but WR is a position where teams take guys they think fit their scheme and style the best.  I may disagree with them but at this point WR is a crapshoot. 

There are still some offensive linemen on the board I like.  OT Kinsley Suamataia, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Zach Frazier could all be day one starters on the right team.  At CB you have DeJean, McKinstry, and TJ Tampa who all look like starters to me. Throw in Newton all the WRs I just listed and you can understand why Day 2 of the NFL draft is my favorite.     

It’s been a while since I did this sort of thing before the draft but I felt like declaring some of the guys I like better than the consensus or just a little more than I probably should.  I’ll throw out a few guys at the end I don’t particularly like.  I’m not going to include some of the top guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Brock Bowers, everyone loves those guys. 

My Guys

QB Drake Maye – North Carolina: He’s my favorite QB in the class.  He has all the physical tools from a great arm to great athleticism to be on the move.  He’s also got the pedigree.  His dad was a QB at North Carolina and his brothers were top athletes too.  This guy has been competing his whole life and he’s ready to do that in the NFL.

RB Trey Benson – Florida St.: There aren’t going to be a bunch of RBs drafted very high and with that, I only like a couple.  Benson has the talent and physical skills to be awesome.  He needs to work on waiting for the hole to open but he can be a joy to watch. 

WR Rome Odunze – Washington:  My favorite player in the draft.  He’s going to be a stud. He’s big, physical, runs great routes, and absolutely bullies defenders when the ball is in the air.  I haven’t loved a WR this much since Andre Johnson. 

WR Ja’Lynn Polk – Washington: He’s also great at the catch point and while he isn’t a freak like Odunze, he’s a really good WR. 

WR Jalen McMillan – Washington:  That Washington WR corps was amazing and McMillan was even hurt for some time last year.  He’s going to be a fantastic slot receiver immediately and he can have some success outside eventually. 

WR Keon Coleman – Florida St.:  I don’t care what they say about him being slow in the 40, this guy has some serious talent and he has great size. He also hasn’t just focused on football for very long, he originally went to Michigan St. and played football and basketball.  He’s just scratching the surface of his talent, I think he has #1 WR upside.

OT Olu Fashanu – Penn St.: I have no idea why some have him sliding down a bit in round one.  Other than Joe Alt, there isn’t a better OT in this draft.  He’s big, physical and while he has some rounding out to do of his overall game, he’s a beast. 

OL Graham Barton – Duke: Guys this talented and versatile don’t miss.  He could be a Pro Bowl center, a All-Pro guard, or just a really solid OT.  He’s going to be a steal. 

C Zach Frazier – West Virginia: He’s going to be a starting center early in his career and then for a very long time.  He’s a grinder. 

DT Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton – Illinois:  As much as I hate giving praise to an Illini player this dude is so good.  I’ve been watching him destroy people for years at Illinois and he’s too good not to be an awesome pro.  The only thing that could stop him is if the foot injury he’s recovering from persists. 

CB/DB Cooper DeJean – Iowa:  Of course, I love DeJean but seriously, he’s going to be awesome if a team uses all his talents.  He’s so versatile it boggles the mind. 

CB TJ Tampa – Iowa St.: I hate giving the Cyclones any credit even more than I hate giving it to Illinois but I like Tampa.  Physical, tough CB with some fight in him.  He’s going to be a better pro than some of the CBs drafted ahead of him. 

Not My Guys

QB Jayden Daniels – LSU: I’m scared the Patriots are going to end up with him.  He’s skinny, he runs around like a kamikaze, and when he runs it’s to run, he never runs to throw.  It’s a dangerous combination against NFL defenders. 

QB Michael Penix Jr – Washington: As great as he was at Washington, I think he was a product of a great offensive system and elite WR talent (I already mentioned those guys).  I think if he isn’t in the perfect system with some great WR talent, it could be a problem.  (Maybe the Seahawks should draft him)

QB Joe Milton – Tennessee:  This guy has a cannon for an arm.  That’s the only good QB trait he has. He should try playing TE. 

RB Braelon Allen – Wisconsin: He lost his way at Wisconsin last year in their new offense but part of it’s his fault.  He’s a big back who doesn’t play with the decisive power he should.  If he finds it, he can be good, if not he’ll be lucky to be Ron Dayne in the pros. 

WR Adonai Mitchell – Texas:  He’s big, he’s fast, and he’s just not that good at doing WR things.  He needs a lot of help to take advantage of his physical gifts. There is just something missing from his game. 

WR Xavier Worthy – Texas: I promise I’m not picking on Texas WRs on purpose.  Worthy is really, really fast, he’s also really, really small.  He also lacks some WR skills that would make him a bit better. 

DE Chop Robinson – Penn St.:  He’s an incredible athlete but I’ve seen this before.  He has one move, run really fast around the edge and hope you get to the QB.  He has no pass rush moves and can’t finish at the QB. 

CB Ennis Rakestraw – Missouri:  He had almost no ball production and he’s undersized.  I don’t mind an undersized CB if he has some playmaking traits but that’s not Rakestraw. 

I basically don’t like any LBs or Safeties in this draft.  If you have a need at either of those positions, good luck and don’t pick any of them early.  LB Junior Colson and S Tyler Nubin might be starters eventually but I’m not going out of my way to draft those guys. 

The draft is fast approaching and teams are making their final moves, I hope.  The Bills trading Stefon Diggs was an inevitability but I didn’t see it happening a couple of weeks before the draft.  It puts some pressure on the Bills to find some help at WR, Josh Allen is good but he’s now lost Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir as his top WRs, that’s rough.  We haven’t seen the Vikings make their move up the board yet but we may have to wait until draft day to see if the Patriots like their options at three, if the Cardinals decided they’re willing to move off four, or if it’s the Chargers trading out at five.  Draft boards are taking shape, teams are devising strategies to fill their needs, and it’s almost time to get the show on the road. 

I’m going to have a little fun with this final mock draft.  I made a few big trades up in the first round with teams that have glaring needs.  It threw a wrench into some of the picks and then I threw in a couple of different moves.  I’m not a huge fan of this overall draft class, it’s a little thin.  However, there are some guys I like a lot.  

Round 1

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina):  Caleb Williams     QB     USC

I’m not getting cute here and if you want to know my thoughts on this pick, go back and read my other mock drafts.  Unless Williams pulls an Eli Manning between now and the draft, this one is set.  According to reports, the Commanders made a big offer and Chicago turned them down, they are all in on Caleb.  I think he has a high ceiling as a potential superstar but I do see the scenario where he doesn’t work out.  The Bears have worked to get him help so he’s supported on the field.  The questions are; Will Williams become the player his talent shows he can be or will he be another failed Bears QB? Is Shane Waldron the guy to get the best out of Williams? Only time will tell.  I see the flashes of greatness from Williams but I also recognize the problems in his game. 

2. Washington Commanders (4-13):  Jayden Daniels     QB     LSU

Washington has kept a pretty tight lid on which QB they plan to take with this pick.  I can make the argument for Daniels or Drake Maye and if you want me to work a little harder, I could make the case for JJ McCarthy but it’s not as convincing.  The one aspect I don’t believe I’ve touched on is that this team needs a face of the franchise.  While I firmly believe Maye is the better pro prospect, Daniels is clearly the higher profile player.  Daniels won the Heisman last season, he put up video game like stats, and he’s one of the most athletic QBs ever.  This is a franchise that could use an easy PR win and that can’t be discounted.  It won’t be the reason they take Daniels over Maye but it’s part of the equation when you’re drafting a QB this high. 

3. New England Patriots (4-13):  Drake Maye     QB     North Carolina

I think the Patriots want Maye and they are using the JJ McCarthy hype as a smokescreen in case Maye goes second.  If Maye is off the board here, they will look to trade down and the best thing they can do is create interest from multiple teams.  The Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders all may be looking to move up but they may like different QBs here.  Making each of them think you might take the guy they like creates competition for the pick.  The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett so they don’t have to take a QB if they don’t like their options.  They also don’t have to trade out if they don’t like the offers.  Marvin Harrison Jr. would be an amazing consolation prize if Maye is gone and no teams make a trade offer worth moving down for.  I love Maye, he’s my favorite QB and I think he has elite talent.    

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Marvin Harrison Jr.     WR     Ohio St.

I said this before but it’s worth repeating, the Cardinals have six picks in the top 103 overall.  They do not need to move down to get draft capital, they have draft capital.  They need difference makers so unless someone makes it worth their while, they stay here and take Harrison.  He’s the best WR prospect in a decade at least and they need him.  Unless, Monti Ossenfort believes he can do what he did last season when he traded down and then traded back up to get the guy he wanted, he stays here.  Trying the trade down, trade up move is risky when you’re talking about losing Marvin Harrison Jr.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE from Chargers):  JJ McCarthy     QB     Michigan

I know, this is the same as my last mock but I just feel like this is the most realistic possibility when it comes to the top five picks.  The Chargers have no reason to stay here unless Jim Harbaugh just loves Malik Nabers and that seems unlikely.  Harbaugh is going to build in the trenches first and foremost.  The Vikings have amassed draft capital to make this move and McCarthy fits their style of play.  He’s the point guard just dishing it out to his playmakers; Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.  He makes Kevin O’Connell’s offense run and does it at about a tenth of the cost of Kirk Cousins.  Jefferson gets an extension, LT Christian Darrisaw gets and extension, and there’s still money to spend on defense next year. 

6. New York Giants (6-11):  Rome Odunze     WR     Washington

Sorry, my top six picks stay the same.  I think Odunze fits what the Giants need and with all four QBs off the board they just take the WR they need.  Malik Nabers is probably the preferred choice over Odunze by most teams but Odunze is the better fit for the Giants’ WR corps.  They have smaller, fast guys, Odunze is a big fast guy.  He can make Daniel Jones look better if Jones can stay healthy (that’s a big if).  If not, he makes Drew Lock more acceptable.  Odunze, Jaylin Hyatt, and Wan’Dale Robinson isn’t a bad young group of WRs for the Giants next QB to start off with. 

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11):  Joe Alt     OT     Notre Dame

Okay, I’m going back to the Joe Alt to the Titans pick that is everyone’s standard pick in every mock draft everywhere. The Titans have Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Treylon Burks at WR so unless they give up on Burks already, they need an OT before they need Malik Nabers.  It won’t do Will Levis any good to have great WRs if Nicholas Petit-Frere is lining up as his LT.  Alt is a big guy with long arms and all the skills needed to be a Pro Bowl LT.  He’s not the flashiest guy but he’ll be solid as a rock for the next decade at LT. 

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE from Atlanta):  Malik Nabers     WR     LSU

GM Trent Baalke and coach Doug Pederson can’t have another failure like last year.  They wanted Calvin Ridley back to pair with Gabe Davis but he left for Tennessee.  They still need help at WR because they may still cut Zay Jones.  Nabers would be a homerun swing to try to fully unlock Trevor Lawrence.  This would be an expensive trade moving from 17 to 8 but the roster isn’t lacking and they could afford to give up some draft capital.  Also, their biggest need is at CB and while they could draft one at 17 there are more good veteran CBs on the market to sign after the draft who can help than there are WRs who move the needle.  Taking Nabers and signing Stephen Gilmore at CB is far more impactful than signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Terrion Arnold or Nate Wiggins.  They make this move to get ahead of the Bears when they see Nabers fall past the Titans.  This is the first of some fun trades and picks coming up.     

9. Chicago Bears (7-10):  Dallas Turner     Edge      Alabama

The Bears will almost certainly try to move up if Nabers falls past the sixth pick but they don’t have a lot of capital to make it worth it to the Titans to risk losing Alt.  If all the WRs are gone the Bears then have to weigh trading down vs. taking the top edge rusher.  Some of the teams looking to move up might be teams looking to draft that edge rusher (Rams, Bengals).  A team looking for an OT could also look to move up but that’s either teams picking much later in round one (Packers, Chiefs, Ravens) or teams without much to trade (Saints, Dolphins).  If the Bears like Turner as the complement to Montez Sweat, they should just take him here.

10. New York Jets (7-10):  Olu Fashanu     OT     Penn St. 

The Jets signed LT Tyron Smith and traded for RT Morgan Moses but both of those guys are 33 years old and Smith hasn’t played a full season in a long time.  They need depth and talent for the future and Fashanu is too good to pass up.  Keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy is priority one in New York.  While the Jets could also look at WR, it seems unlikely they plan to heavily use a rookie WR given Rodgers’ aversion to them.  They feel like a team that will sign a veteran free agent WR sometime before training camp.  They also still have Allen Lazard on the roster and while he was bad last year, he’s a Rodgers favorite so they may have more plans for him than we know. 

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Minnesota):  Cooper DeJean     CB     Iowa

The first curveball moment in the draft comes here.  DeJean has been the forgotten man after Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold seemed to secure the top two CB spots at the combine, then DeJean’s pro day happened.  His relative athletic score was off the charts and while they may have needs on the offense, defensive back is a big need too.  New defensive coordinator Jesse Minter studied in Baltimore and the Ravens defense likes defensive backs with versatility.  DeJean is as versatile as they come.  He can play any position in the defensive backfield, he can be an outside corner opposite Asante Samuel or play the nickel, or he can pair with Derwin James to be the best safety duo in the league.  Harbaugh throws off everyone’s draft boards. 

12. Denver Broncos (8-9):  Brock Bowers     TE     Georgia

The Broncos need a QB but I don’t see them taking one here and they don’t have the draft capital to move up for one.  This roster also just needs help.  The offense has Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims Jr., you aren’t scaring anyone with that group unless Patrick Mahomes is your QB, and they don’t have a Mahomes.  Bowers is an electric offensive weapon and Sean Payton has been known to figure out how to use those in his career.  Bowers is also simply the best prospect on the board and the Broncos need good players.  Whoever they end up with at QB would greatly appreciate having a guy with Bowers skills at his disposal.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9):  Quinyon Mitchell     CB     Toledo

The Raiders need help at QB also but they are in a similar spot to the Broncos in the fact they just don’t have the means to move up without mortgaging their entire future.  They stay put and take Mitchell who would seriously upgrade their secondary.  They have Jakorian Bennett penciled in as the starter opposite Jack Jones at CB and it would look a lot better if Mitchell was your CB1 and Jones was your #2.  They could go offensive line but CB is just as big of a need and Mitchell is the type of athlete the Raiders love.  He may be coming from a small school but he’s ready to play right away and he’s got top level talent. 

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8):  Taliese Fuaga    OT    Oregon St. 

The Saints are generally an organization that is hard to pin down when it comes to the draft.  They shouldn’t be this year; they desperately need help on the offensive line.  LT Trevor Penning was so bad last season he got benched.  RT Ryan Ramczyk has a knee injury with a troubling prognosis.  Fuaga should probably play RT or inside at guard but I wouldn’t rule him out at LT if it’s between him and Penning.  They should probably re-sign Andrus Peat regardless of who they draft here but if they don’t, Fuaga could fill the LG spot.  He gives them options and right now they need that on this offensive front.  Derek Carr isn’t great with a good line in front of him, a bad line just compounds the problem.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8):  Terrion Arnold     CB     Alabama

I go back and forth on the Colts needing a CB and maybe wanting a WR but if Arnold falls to this spot, I think it’s an easy choice.  He’s a starting caliber CB on day one and gives them a guy with CB1 upside to play opposite JuJu Brents.  Brents and Arnold would make a nice duo outside with Kenny Moore in the slot.  Arnold has the versatility to play in the slot too which always helps.  WR is a potential need but this draft is much deeper at that position than CB so they wait to find a new deep threat. 

16. Buffalo Bills (TRADE from Seattle):  Brian Thomas     WR     LSU

The Bills lost Gabe Davis in free agency and traded Stefon Diggs; they need WR help.  Luckily for them, they have quite a bit of draft capital in this draft and they picked up capital next year with the Diggs trade.  They have 10 draft picks in this draft and while they have taken some heavy losses at WR and in the secondary, 10 rookies aren’t making this roster.  They need quality, not quantity.  They use some picks to move up and get the fourth WR.  There is a clear top three at WR but Thomas feels like he’s the second tier of WR all by himself.  The Bills need a difference maker and Thomas would be an upgrade over what Gabe Davis gave them before.  He has the size and speed to really open up the offense for Josh Allen and he’s a potential WR1.

17. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE from Jacksonville):  Byron Murphy II     DT     Texas

The Falcons’ defense is in a transition to the Raheem Morris/Jimmy Lake scheme from what Ryan Nielsen was running last year and the front needs some juice.  DTs Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata aren’t getting any younger as both are over 30.  They need so much help at DT they are dusting off Eddie Goldman trying to find bodies.  Murphy is an undersized DT with a great first step and the ability to collapse the pocket.  Morris and Lake coached the Rams last year with Aaron Donald so they should know how best to use Murphy.  They can hope his inside rush presence will make things easier on the edge guys. 

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8):  Jared Verse     DE     Florida St.

The Bengals need some pass rush help opposite Trey Hendrickson and Myles Murphy didn’t do much last year after being their first pick.  Verse has some burst off the edge but he also brings power to the position.  He can finish the play in a couple of ways and has more skill than Murphy.  Verse is a little older and farther along in his development and this team needs someone who can help right away.  They want to compete; Verse would help this defense do that.

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7):  JC Latham     OT     Alabama

The Rams spent big money to keep RG Kevin Dotson and to sign LG Jonah Jackson in free agency.  That moves Steve Avila to center and turns the interior of the Rams line into a power running group.  They still have LT Alaric Jackson, who they like, but RT Rob Havenstein will be 32 this season and it’s the last year of guaranteed money on his contract.  Latham would continue their trend of getting power players up front, he’s a massive road grader at RT.  He could even play some guard this year if he doesn’t unseat Havenstein. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7):  Jackson Powers-Johnson     C     Oregon

This pick just makes too much sense.  This team has to block well up the middle or the offense just won’t run with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields at QB.  Powers-Johnson is a monster inside and his power game will work well in Arthur Smith’s offense where they will rely heavily on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.  He isn’t the most experienced player with only one year as a starting center but the guards are veteran guys who can help him develop. 

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6):  Troy Fautanu     OL     Washington

The starting guards on the Dolphins depth chart going into the draft are Isaiah Wynn and Robert Jones, that’s rough.  Fautanu played tackle at Washington but his best fit is likely inside at guard.  He would be an immediate starter for the Dolphins and he honed his pass protection skills playing in Washington’s high flying passing game so he would fit right in down in Miami.  He also brings the added versatility that if Terron Armstead’s injury concerns persist, he’s a solid choice as a fill in at LT.  Maybe not his ideal spot but he can handle himself if needed. 

22. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Philadelphia):  Amarius Mims     OT     Georgia

The Chiefs see the run on offensive linemen start and decide they have to get ahead of the Chargers and Cowboys or they will miss out on the good OTs.  They make Philly a strong offer to move up for an upgrade at LT.  Mims is really inexperienced with only eight starts in college but the man is 6’8 340 lbs. and is an athletic freak.  He played RT at Georgia but he has all the physical qualities of a LT.  The Chiefs won the Super Bowl with Donovan Smith at LT last year, there is no way Mims growing pains will make him any worse than Smith was and Mims will only get better.  If Mims hits, and under Andy Reid’s tutelage it’s not hard to imagine he would, he has All-Pro potential. 

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Minnesota): Tyler Guyton     OT     Oklahoma

Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz play this just right and end up with the most impactful DB for them, Cooper DeJean, and still get a starting RT. Guyton might not unseat Trey Pipkins immediately because he’s still a work in progress but he will eventually.  Harbaugh won’t ask too much of Guyton early and they will develop him into a starting RT.  Guyton is a little green but he has the size, skill, and athleticism to excel at RT. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Graham Barton     OL     Duke

Barton played LT at Duke for most of his career and it’s possible he could man that spot in a pinch but he’s probably moving inside.  His best position is likely center where his lack of ideal length won’t hinder him.  Just so happens that the Cowboys need a new center or someone to play either LG or LT depending on what they do with Tyler Smith.  Either way, Barton starts somewhere and he’ll be good immediately. This team isn’t trying to build for the future, they need to win now. 

25. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE with Green Bay):  Michael Penix Jr.     QB     Washington

With the top OTs, the top two centers, and the top three CBs (especially Cooper DeJean) off the board, it shouldn’t be hard to convince the Packers to trade out of this spot.  I think the Raiders give up the 44^th pick in this draft and a second rounder next year.  The Raiders make the move up to get Penix to give them an upgrade over Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell.  They make the move to ensure Denver doesn’t do something like give up a first rounder next year to get into the back of the first round to steal Penix. 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8):  Laiatu Latu     Edge    UCLA

The run on offensive linemen pushes Latu down a bit in this mock draft.  That’s good news for the Bucs as they need a legitimate pass rusher and Latu has serious skills.  He’s not the most athletic pass rusher, that’s Dallas Turner, and he’s not the most powerful, that’s Jared Verse. What he is, is the absolute best technician we’ve seen in quite some time.  Most college edge rushers have a move or two they rely heavily on and that’s how they win.  Latu is the most complete edge rusher you will find when it comes to his arsenal of pass rush moves.  His hand fighting is elite and he has moves, counter moves, and counters to his counter moves.  He won’t wow you with his athleticism but he’ll put on a clinic when it comes to pass rush techniques. 

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston):  Nate Wiggins     CB     Clemson

This pick would be a bigger no-brainer than taking Marvin Harrison Jr. earlier.  When your top CB is Sean Murphy-Bunting having Wiggins fall this far is a blessing.  Wiggins is as skinny as they come, he’s 6’2 173 lbs., and that might scare some teams off but beggars can’t be choosers.  Emmanuel Forbes was the skinny CB who got drafted last year by Washington and struggled but it’s unfair to compare Wiggins to Forbes.  Wiggins’ game isn’t like Forbes’ game at all.  Wiggins is willing to play a WR up close and he doesn’t back down.  He will get overpowered in the run game but he covers like a blanket. 

28. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE from Buffalo):  Jer’Zhan Newton     DT     Illinois

The Seahawks trade down twelve spots and still get a guy they would have considered at 16 overall, smart move by GM John Schneider in his first draft without Pete Carroll.  The Seahawks know they need reinforcements on the d-line.  They signed Jonathan Hankins after re-signing Leonard Williams.  The problem is Williams will be 30, Hankins is 32, and Jarran Reed is 31.  They need some young talent and Newton is awesome.  He’s only available because he had foot surgery and there may be some questions about his health.  He’s a monster on the interior when healthy and he’s well worth the risk. 

29. Detroit Lions (12-5):  Kool-Aid McKinstry     CB     Alabama

The Lions traded for Carlton Davis III, signed Amik Robertson, and hope Emmanuel Moseley will be healthy this year, that’s not enough.  If McKinstry is available he’s too good to pass up.  He has a really high upside even if he didn’t quite live up to expectations this last season.  McKinstry has a body of work at Alabama that shows he has top-level skills.  With as bad as things got in the secondary last season for the Lions, they should err on the side of caution.  They lost CJ Gardner-Johnson and had to cut Cam Sutton; more help is needed.  McKinstry might not have the ceiling of a CB1 like people thought going into the season, but he’s still a really good CB. 

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4):  Marshawn Kneeland     Edge     Western Michigan

There has been some buzz about Kneeland moving up into the first round and I think there’s a chance the Ravens take a chance on him.  They need pass rush help.  They re-signed Kyle Van Noy because they are still waiting for Odafe Oweh or David Ojabo to break out and Van Noy gave them some help last year on the edge.  The problem is that he’s 34 and they may need him at ILB with Patrick Queen gone.  Kneeland is a bet on potential.  He shows flashes of great pass rush but he isn’t consistent.  He has some power, knows how to use his hands, and has long arms but he’s still raw.  I suppose if you have three raw pass rush prospects, one of them will hopefully hit. 

31. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from San Francisco):  Ladd McConkey     WR     Georgia

The Chargers traded down to get two first-round picks from Minnesota and now they take a little of their extra draft capital to move back up in to round one to get a third pick and get ahead of teams like Carolina and New England who want WRs.  McConkey would be their replacement for Keenan Allen.  Allen was a savant in the slot and ran routes with precision and accuracy that Justin Herbert loved.  This guy can do the same thing.  He’ll be exceptional at getting open and giving Herbert a target over the middle of the field. 

32. Philadelphia Eagles (TRADE from Kansas City):  Darius Robinson     DL     Missouri

The Eagles made the move down because they got a good deal from Kansas City but I could see them trying to make a move back up to get Jer’Zhan Newton, they have the picks to do it.  But in this mock draft they don’t so they take Darius Robinson.  Robinson is a big DE or a tall, long DT.  They just lost Fletcher Cox to retirement meaning the DT rotation will heavily rely on Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.  Davis isn’t a full-time player and Robinson gives them a versatile piece on the d-line.  He can rotate inside and can also give them a big DE who can play on the edge against the run.  They have some smaller edge guys like Bryce Huff and Nolan Smith so Robinson would be a good complement to those guys.

Round 2

33. Carolina Panthers:  Adonai Mitchell     WR     Texas

The Panthers are trying to help Bryce Young succeed but they need better weapons.  They have Jonathan Mingo, Diontae Johnson, and Adam Thielen, none of those guys are great deep threats.  Mitchell has the ability to get down field and open up the underneath stuff for Johnson to thrive.  Young probably doesn’t have the ideal arm to take total advantage of Mitchell but he adds a dimension the offense doesn’t have right now. 

34. New England Patriots:  Keon Coleman     WR     Florida St.

I’m trying to manifest this pick if the Patriots don’t make a deal for Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk during the draft.  I like Coleman’s upside as a potential #1 WR and one way or another, the Patriots need one of those. 

35. Arizona Cardinals:  Chop Robinson     Edge     Penn St.

The more you watch Chop Robinson the more convinced you become that he shouldn’t be a first-round pick.  He might still make it but he’s just a designated pass rusher and he’s no great at that.  The Cardinals need defensive help and Robinson is the kind of prospect that if he hits, he’s really useful, if not, he’s off the team in three years. 

36. Washington Commanders:  Kingsley Suamataia     LT     BYU

If the Commanders go into the season with Cornelius Lucas at LT, it won’t matter what QB they take second.  Suamataia isn’t a finished product by any means but he has the talent to be a starting LT in the NFL. 

37. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE from LA Chargers):  TJ Tampa     CB     Iowa St.

Charvarius Ward is a good outside CB and Deommodore Lenoir is good in the slot and passable outside. If they can find an outside CB better than Ambry Thomas, they should.  Tampa is a better CB than Thomas and he’s really tough, something that defense will like. 

38. Tennessee Titans:  Bralen Trice     DE     Washington

The Titans need pass rush help and while Trice isn’t the quickest edge rusher he has legitimate pass rush skill.  He also has enough size to play on the end of the Titans three-man front and not be completely overwhelmed. 

39. Carolina Panthers:  Ja’Tavion Sanders     TE     Texas

Sanders is never going to be Travis Kelce; he’s probably not going to approach being Greg Olsen but he’s got a higher ceiling than Tommy Tremble.  Sanders has the ability to be a good middle of the field target, assuming Bryce Young looks that way. 

40. Washington Commanders:  Jordan Morgan     OL     Arizona

If the Commanders draft two offensive linemen with their second round picks it will be among the smartest moves the team has ever made.  Morgan would upgrade the right side of the line at either RG or RT.  

41. Green Bay Packers:  Kiran Amegadjie     OT     Yale

The Packers have Zach Tom at RT but word is they want to move him inside to center to replace Josh Myers, that means they need a new RT.  Assuming Rasheed Wallace is still the LT Amegadjie can play on the right side.  Amegadjie might end up at LT because of his long arms but for now he starts at RT. 

42. Houston Texans:  Zach Frazier     C     West Virginia

The Texans have made a lot of moves to surround CJ Stroud with a good team ready to compete.  They signed a lot of veterans to improve their defense.  On offense they went big with trades for both RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs.  The Diggs trade gives them one final piece to go with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz, and Diggs is a heck of a piece.  I don’t think he’s who he was two or three years ago, but he’s a great second WR to Collins.  Last year they had a number of injuries up front and yet Bobby Slowik made the offense work.  One of those injured guys was Juice Scruggs, their second round pick last year.  Scruggs was supposed to be their center last year before he got hurt, instead he played some guard when he was healthy.  Frazier would be a potential upgrade at center and at the very least he gives them interior depth with Shaq Mason on the wrong side of 30.

43. Atlanta Falcons:  Adisa Isaac     Edge     Penn St.

Isaac isn’t the athlete Chop Robinson is but he might end up the better player.  The Falcons need help rushing the passer and Isaac can give them some help there.  He’s versatile enough to allow them to use multiple fronts and if he and Byron Murphy II can improve the pass rush enough, the holes in the secondary won’t seem so pronounced.

44. Green Bay Packers (TRADE from Las Vegas):  Tyler Nubin     S     Minnesota

The Packers get this pick from the Raiders for the trade up in round one and they grab a safety to pair with Xavier McKinney.  McKinney is a good pickup but he doesn’t solve the whole safety problem, he and Nubin just might. 

45. New Orleans Saints:  Cooper Beebe     OG     Kansas St.

The Saints may have just drafted an entirely new left side of the offensive line with Fuaga in round one and Beebe here.  That wouldn’t be a bad idea.  Beebe has versatility as he’s played both tackle spots and both guard spots and he has practiced at center just in case.  If everything goes wrong at RT, he could fill in there in a pinch.  Fuaga and Beebe together on the left side would be a nice combo. 

46. Indianapolis Colts:  Xavier Leggette     WR     South Carolina

I nearly put Xavier Worthy here as the deep threat the Colts need to help open up the middle for Michael Pittman to work, then I remembered Chris Ballard is their GM and he would never take a guy that small.  Here’s Leggette instead.  He’s only 6’1 but he’s 223 lbs. of pure athleticism who also has legit deep speed.  Sorry Alec Pierce, you’ve been replaced. 

47. New York Giants:  Ennis Rakestraw     CB     Missouri

The Giants have a need for a CB opposite Deonte Banks.  Banks had a nice rookie year but he has little help on the other side.  I’m not a huge fan of Rakestraw considering his lack of production and his lack of size but he’s not a bad pick here.  If he goes round one, that’s a bad pick. 

48. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE from Jacksonville):  Patrick Paul     OT     Houston

Jake Matthews is 32 and somehow Kaleb McGary is already 29 and both guys don’t have any guaranteed money on their deals after this season.  McGary hasn’t been the picture of health and using this extra second round pick from Jacksonville to get a potential future starting OT is a smart move. 

49. Cincinnati Bengals:  T’Vondre Sweat     DT     Texas

Sweat falls a bit because he had a drunk driving arrest just a few weeks before the draft.  The Bengals have never shied away from guys with some questionable personal issues before.  They need to replace DJ Reader at DT and Sweat is the perfect replacement on the field.  Hopefully for him and the team that drafts him the DUI was a one-time stupid mistake and he learned his lesson.   

50. Philadelphia Eagles:  Andru Phillips     CB     Kentucky

Phillips is a little on the small side at 5’11 190 lbs. but he doesn’t play like it.  He’s tough, physical, and not afraid to mix it up. The Eagles need some help at CB and Phillips has the type of toughness their defense needs. 

51. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Xavier Worthy     WR     Texas

I’m sticking with this pick from my last mock draft.  Worthy is a deep speed guy who is the polar opposite body type of George Pickens.  Worthy is short and light but he will go long, all day long, if you want.  This offense needs WRs. 

52. Los Angeles Rams:  Jaden Hicks     S     Washington St

The Rams have overhauled their secondary with veterans Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White at CB and Kamren Curl at safety.  It was a needed an overhaul and Hicks completes it when he pairs with Curl at safety. 

53. Philadelphia Eagles:  Malachi Corley     WR     Western Kentucky

Corley is a big, physical WR who is known for his run-after-the-catch ability.  The Eagles may run into issues with AJ Brown’s contract and getting a guy like Corley would be a nice hedge against losing Brown over a contract dispute. 

54. Cleveland Browns:  Junior Colson     LB     Michigan

They signed Jordan Hicks to be their new MLB but he’s going to be 33 this season and he’s not a long-term solution.  They also signed Devin Bush because they needed help at LB and he’s just a guy.  Colson isn’t a flashy player but he’s tough, steady, and he’s a starting caliber player on day one. 

55. Miami Dolphins:  Bo Nix     QB     Oregon

There are some questions about Tua Tagovailoa’s future in Miami if the Dolphins don’t want to pay top dollar for him.  Nix is a highly accurate QB over the middle with a quick trigger and Mike McDaniel might be able to make him work in his offense.

56. Dallas Cowboys:  Roman Wilson     WR     Michigan

The Cowboys have to get some offensive weapons besides CeeDee Lamb.  They need help at WR and RB and Roman Wilson is better value than any RB in the draft.  Wilson becomes the third receiver behind Lamb and Brandin Cooks and pairs quite nicely as he can play inside or outside. 

57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Mike Sanristil     CB     Michigan

The Buccaneers plan to play Zyon McCollum as Carlton Davis III’s replacement meaning they need a third CB.  Sanristil is undersized at 5’9 but he’s highly athletic and he’s a superstar nickel back.  He has amazing field awareness and despite his size, he’s a tough as can be. 

58. Green Bay Packers:  Edgerrin Cooper     LB     Texas A&M

The Packers depth chart looks pretty solid overall.  They are planning on Isaiah McDuffie to take over one LB spot opposite Quay Walker and they usually play five DBs.  Cooper is a really talented prospect who needs some development but he’s a steal here.  He can team with McDuffie as they should complement each other. 

59. Houston Texans:  Kamari Lassiter     DB     Georgia

Lassiter is a tough prospect because he’s undersized at 5’10 180 lbs. and he ran slow at the combine, 4.61 in the 40.  That’s a bad combination.  There’s just one thing, he’s a good football player.  I don’t think he sticks at CB but he could be a safety prospect for some teams and play a little in the slot.  The Texans have Jimmy Ward and he’s getting older and Lassiter would fit in with the Texans strategy of getting good football players. 

60. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE from Buffalo):  Ja’Lynn Polk     WR     Washington

The Seahawks picked up this pick from Buffalo after trading in round one. Tyler Lockett has no guaranteed money past this season and he’ll be 32 this year, good time to find his replacement.  Polk isn’t as big as DK Metcalf but he’s actually a better contested catch guy than Metcalf has proven to be.  Metcalf can be the deep threat, Jaxson Smith-Njigba is the slot guy, Polk can be the other outside guy. 

61. Detroit Lions:  Troy Franklin     WR     Oregon

This is the Josh Reynolds upgrade.  Franklin is a good after-the-catch guy and he’s a big play waiting to happen.  He would work well with Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot and Jameson Williams as the deep threat opposite him.  Franklin doesn’t get the credit he deserves for just being a playmaker with ball in his hands. 

62. Baltimore Ravens:  Ricky Pearsall     WR     Florida

The Ravens need offensive line help but this isn’t an organization that reaches and the linemen left here are not as good as Pearsall will be at WR.  He’s a guy who just understands how to get open and he’s a good athlete too. 

63. San Franscisco 49ers:  Blake Fisher     OT     Notre Dame

This is a Kyle Shanahan special.  Fisher shouldn’t go this high but he’s a long, lean athletic mover at OT and he’ll do exactly what Shanahan likes.  He could replace Colton McKivitz at RT and kick McKivitz inside.  If it doesn’t happen this year, it would happen eventually.

64. Philadelphia Eagles (TRADE from Kansas City):  Dominick Puni     OG     Kansas

Puni was a Division II player who transferred up to Kansas and looked like he belonged.  He can play guard or tackle and the Eagles could use some depth at both.  He needs to get stronger but his pass blocking is solid and he has length.  He’s an alternative to Tyler Steen at RG this season and maybe an option at RT when Lane Johnson retires, he’ll be 34 this year.