While the Senior Bowl and the combine can have some effect on the NFL draft, neither has the effect that free agency does.  And this year it was a combination of free agency and the massive trades that have happened to start the off season.  Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Devante Adams and Tyreek Hill have all been traded and each one of those trades can have repercussions early in the draft.  We still have two teams that could make QB trades, Seattle and Carolina, otherwise they become major players for QBs early in the draft.  Denver, Cleveland, Miami and Las Vegas all gave up picks in the first round of this draft and Washington’s trade for Carson Wentz probably takes them out of the early QB market.  On the other side, the Falcons traded away Matt Ryan (he’s filling Wentz’s spot in Indy now) and while they didn’t get a high draft pick for him, they may have to spend their own high pick to find his long-term replacement.

             I’m going to attempt this mock draft for about the 14^th time since free agency started and hope that nothing major happens before I’m done (the Saints and Eagles did their weird trade when I was almost finished with this two rounder).  Oh yeah, I forgot to mention, some guy named Tom Brady unretired, Amari Cooper got traded to Cleveland, Von Miller signed in Buffalo, and the Rams signed Allen Robinson.  I may have forgotten a free agent signing or two.

            Finally, I don’t think I remember a draft that was more unsettled just a few weeks before.  It’s still not settled who goes first, maybe Hutchinson, maybe an OT, I’m not convinced Jacksonville knows yet.  Second overall is even a bigger crapshoot if Hutchinson does go first.  Even the “consensus” top players have no consensus with the teams.  Kyle Hamilton is either the best safety prospect since Sean Taylor or he falls like Derwin James to the middle teens.  Kayvon Thibodeaux is either the next Khalil Mack or he doesn’t care about football and no one should take him.  This QB class might have four guys go in the first round (spoiler alert…I have four in this first round mock draft) but none of them should even be first round picks (in my actual opinion).  Well let’s get started before the Jaguars trade the first pick to the Cowboys for Tyron Smith and Ezekiel Elliott (that’s not an actual thing but given this off season, nothing is off the table).   

Round 1

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14):  Aidan Hutchinson      DE      Michigan

            There’s this idea that when you’re as bad as Jacksonville is as a franchise you may have to overspend to entice free agents.  It’s a bad idea and Jacksonville went for it, with gusto.  They overspent on WR Christian Kirk, LB Foyesade Oluokun and probably on Brandon Scherff (he’s an excellent player but he hasn’t played a full season in five years).  They went the drunken sailor route and that’s going to change their draft needs.  The one big one was franchise tagging LT Cam Robinson again.  Bringing back Robinson and Jawaan Taylor at RT, along with having Walker Little around probably takes them out of the OT market at #1 (although none of those guys should preclude them from taking an OT).  That means Aidan Hutchinson is the most likely player for this spot.  They do need a pass rusher opposite Josh Allen and Hutchinson would be a good complementary piece.  He’s not going to lead the league in sacks but he’s solid as a rock and Jacksonville could use a little of that.  The team will be better under Doug Pederson and getting a guy with the work ethic and skill of Hutchinson can only help them on defense. 

2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1):  Kyle Hamilton      SS      Notre Dame

            The Lions have been the quietest team in free agency with their only pickup of note being WR DJ Chark on a one-year deal.  They cut Trey Flowers at DE and while they could use some help at DE it’s not a crying need.  Certainly, if they could, the team would trade down and pick up more draft capital as they are at the start of a long rebuild.  There are rumbling that they may take a QB, most likely Malik Willis, but that seems like a rumor designed to elicit trade offers and not something they will actually do.  The team needs don’t necessarily matchup well with the top of this draft.  They have Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell at OT and the DE’s not named Aidan Hutchinson aren’t necessarily their type of guys.  Kyle Hamilton might be the best prospect in this draft overall even if the reports of his slower 40 time at his pro day are true.  Just watch him play and you can see the major playmaker he’s going to be.  The Lions need a talent upgrade almost everywhere on defense and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn would have a nice piece to build the secondary around in Hamilton. When your team needs almost everything, just take the best player on the board, that’s Hamilton.   

3. Houston Texans (4-12):  Evan Neal      OT     Alabama

            The Texans haven’t been overly active in free agency other than adding a slew of RBs and a couple of fringe players here and there.  They signed Marlon Mack, Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale to add to Rex Burkhead at RB, Mack would be my pick to win that job but it will be a competition.  The team needs help almost everywhere and they picked up more draft capital when they dealt Deshaun Watson to Cleveland.  They have a long rebuild ahead and for now it looks like they want to give QB Davis Mills a real chance to be their guy at least for this year.  He had a solid second half of the season last year as a rookie but he needs more help, especially up front.  Laremy Tunsil is set at LT and they have some bodies on the inside but they need an upgrade at RT.  Neal played all over the line at Alabama including RT and he would be a massive upgrade.  He can be a road grader for the running game and help keep Mills upright and give him time to look downfield to Brandin Cooks (they actually gave Cooks an extension so I don’t think they will trade him, although I could be wrong about that).  Also, if the Texans decide to trade Tunsil because his trade value is too high to pass up, Neal can slide over and be their LT. 

4. New York Jets (4-13):  Travon Walker      DE     Georgia

            The Jets made some nice moves to improve the offensive line (Laken Tomlinson), get a lot better at TE (CJ Uzomah, Tyler Conklin) and improve the secondary (S Jordan Whitehead, CB DJ Reed).  They still need plenty of help and my guess is Robert Saleh would like to start up front on defense.  He should get Carl Lawson back from injury at DE and that will help but it’s just a start.  Kayvon Thibodeaux is a consideration here but Lawson is already an undersized DE, the Jets don’t need another smaller speed rusher.  Walker is 6’5 275 lbs. and can play all over the line.  His versatility would give Saleh someone more like DeForest Buckner or Arik Armstead, two guys who excelled in his defense in San Francisco.  Walker has been climbing the draft boards since teams have gotten a better look at him, and his impressive showing at the combine solidified his rapid ascension.  He was a bit overlooked on a stacked Georgia defense but teams are really figuring him out now. 

5. New York Giants (4-13):  Ikem Ekwonu      OT      North Carolina St.

            The Giants hired Brian Daboll with the hopes he can fix their offense, more specifically QB Daniel Jones.  The team has used free agency to upgrade the interior of the offensive line with Jon Feliciano, Max Garcia, and Mark Glowinski.  With Andrew Thomas at LT that leaves only the RT spot where Matt Peart has failed to seize the job.  Ekwonu is an excellent prospect and while he may be more of a LT prospect, so was Penei Sewell last year and he figured out the transition eventually.  Ekwonu is an excellent prospect and if they lined him up with Glowinski on the right side it might really improve the running lanes and make Saquon Barkley a lot better player.  Ekwonu is a mauler in the run game and Glowinski cleared holes for Jonathan Taylor in Indy last season.  The Giants have talent at WR if they can stay healthy (Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard) and get their head on straight (Kadarius Toney).  They signed Ricky Seals-Jones at TE, maybe he’ll at least be more available than Evan Engram, and the team has to give Saquon Barkley another shot before they give up on him.  All of this, including evaluating Daniel Jones, would be much easier if the offensive line was finally fixed. 

6. Carolina Panthers (5-12):  Kenny Pickett      QB      Pittsburgh

            The Panthers struck out on the QB front this off season when Deshaun Watson chose Cleveland and Russell Wilson went to Denver and Matt Ryan when to Indianapolis and, well you get the picture.  Right now, Sam Darnold is still the starter and I have a really hard time believing Matt Rhule, and more importantly owner David Tepper, is okay with that idea.  Tepper wanted a star but short of that at the very least he wants hope.  Darnold doesn’t inspire much hope and at least a new shiny first-round pick brings hope.  Pickett is more likely to be the next Kirk Cousins and not the next Tom Brady but you can win with a Cousins-like QB.  Pickett is the QB most ready to step in as a starter in year-one and he would quickly relegate Darnold to either the backup role or out the door.  The team needs a lot of help on the offensive line and while Charles Cross would solve their LT problem, he doesn’t buy Matt Rhule extra time and some good will like Pickett would.  Rhule and Pickett do have a history together too.  Once upon a time when Matt Rhule was coaching Temple, Kenny Pickett committed to him as a high school recruit.  Rhule moved on to Baylor and Pickett ended up at Pitt but they do know each other from way back. 

7. New York Giants (from Chicago):  Kayvon Thibodeaux     DE/OLB      Oregon

            The Giants brought in Don “Wink” Martindale to run their defense under Brian Daboll.  Martindale has been running the Ravens defense and they use a multitude of looks.  One common denominator is that Martindale likes to be aggressive rushing the passer.  Azeez Ojulari had a good rookie year last year and Quincy Roche is a good rotational OLB but Thibodeaux would seriously juice up their pass rush.  He’s perfectly suited for Martindale’s defense and he while he was initially thought to be a top 2 or 3 pick, he’s slipped a little.  There are some who question his desire but I think that’s overblown.  He is a guy who cares about more than just football but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t care about football.  He’s an elite athlete at pass rusher and yes, he sometimes takes plays off, plenty of DEs do from time to time. What he brings from a pass rushing standpoint far out weights the bad plays.  He and Ojulari in Martindale’s defense is a frightening thought for opposing offenses. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Garrett Wilson      WR      Ohio St.

            The Falcons moved on from Matt Ryan and it would make sense to take a QB I’m not sure this team sees it that way.  This QB class isn’t great and while Malik Willis has upside, I don’t see them wanting to wait for his development.  They signed Marcus Mariota to a very reasonable contract and I think they wait for a QB.  Right now, if they lined up on offense their top three WRs are Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate, and Damiere Byrd, that’s awful.  If you ask five scouts who the best WR in this class is you will probably get at least four different answers but one of them will be Garrett Wilson.  He’s not a physically imposing guy like a Drake London and he’s not the vertical threat you would think he would be with his speed.  However, what he is, is an excellent inside guy who is dynamite with the ball in his hands after the catch.  You can use him across the middle and as a gadget play guy.  It seems counterintuitive but the Falcons already have their big bodied, physical receiver in Kyle Pitts, the TE they took last year.  Pitts isn’t your typical interior guy, he’s better off the line.  Wilson would be a nice inside complement to Pitts outside for whomever the Falcons eventually settle on at QB (I doubt it’s Mariota long-term).

9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver):  Malik Willis     QB      Liberty

            This is the first pick the Seahawks picked up in the Russell Wilson trade and they use it to get their QB of the future, and by future, I mean two or three years from now.  Willis has tantalizing skills like fantastic arm strength and elite running skills, however, he’s nowhere near ready to start in the NFL.  The team has Drew Lock but I have a feeling after (or during) the draft both Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo will find new homes, either through trades or finally being released.  Seattle will find a better stop-gap than Lock and Willis can sit and develop.  I doubt John Schneider and Pete Carroll plan on drafting this high again any time soon so they grab a QB now and try to compete with a veteran next year (my money would be on Mayfield).  I will say, I would pass on Willis this high and if I were the Seahawks, I would take Charles Cross.  The LT spot is a problem even if they re-sign Duane Brown, which looks less and less likely to happen.  Brown wasn’t good last year and he’s 36.  Cross would be good long-term solution to their LT issue. 

10. New York Jets (from Seattle): Charles Cross      OT      Mississippi St.

            The Jets could very easily take a WR or CB here and that would be completely justified.  They did sign DJ Reed at CB and re-signed Braxton Berrios at WR to go with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore.  I don’t think they will give up on Denzel Mims just yet either.  They have Mekhi Becton at LT, which is Cross’ natural position but Mike LaFleur comes from the Shanahan coaching style and they love athletic linemen on offense.  Cross is a fantastic athlete who is a great pass protector already because he played in a pass happy offense in college.  He’s excellent against edge rushers.  There’s a perception he isn’t a strong run blocker but he was never really asked to do it in two years as a starter at Mississippi St.  The Jets could take his athleticism and mold him as a run blocker at RT, at least they know he doesn’t have any bad habits, you can’t form bad habits when you never do it in the first place. 

11. Washington Commanders (7-10):  Ahmad Gardner      CB      Cincinnati

            The Commanders are the next team to see if they can fix Carson Wentz, at least they didn’t trade a first-round pick for him.  That means they won’t be looking for a QB here and they can fill another need.  Their defense should be better than it was last year but it would help if they get some help in the secondary instead of putting it all on the front four.  William Jackson III will be 30 and he’s overpaid so he won’t be around forever.  Gardner is a self-made star who went from a lightly recruited athlete to an elite CB in his time at Cincinnati.  He’s long, wiry and tough as nails.  He doesn’t back down and he has a short memory, all great traits for a CB.  He seems to have moved ahead of Derek Stingley as the best CB on the board (I slightly disagree with this assessment).  The Commanders also need a safety and would love to see Kyle Hamilton fall this far but that doesn’t look like it’s happening.  They are putting a lot on the Carson Wentz thing working out and it would help if their defense could give him a short field whenever possible. 

12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9):  Derek Stingley Jr.      CB      LSU

            The Vikings have plenty of talent on the offensive side for new head coach Kevin O’Connell to work with and they signed Za’Darius Smith to help the pass rush.  That leaves CB and maybe safety as the biggest needs on this team.  They re-signed Patrick Peterson to team with Cam Dantzler but Peterson will be 32 next season.  Stingley has been a top draft prospect since he stepped on the field as a true freshman at LSU three years ago.  He’s had a tough couple of years the last two but he’s still an excellent prospect.  LSU was a bit of a trainwreck the last two seasons after winning the national title Stingley’s freshman year.  He is still an elite athlete with great size and perhaps putting him in Minnesota with another former LSU star, Peterson, will help Stingley find his footing again.  He could be a massive steal even at 12^th overall. 

13. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Jermaine Johnson      DE      Florida St

            The Texans have a second first-round pick from Cleveland from the Deshaun Watson trade and they really just need to look to the best player available.  This team needs as much talent as possible and Johnson is a fantastic talent.  He’s an elite edge rusher and this team definitely could use one.  Jonathan Greenard led the team last season with eight sacks, the next leading guy returning to the team had three.  Lovie Smith knows he needs to get to the QB and Johnson does that quite well.  He also happens to be a good all-around defender so he will play the run too.  Get talent, that has to be the aim of the Texans with all the extra draft capital they got from the Watson trade.  They need help everywhere. 

14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9):  Tyler Linderbaum      C      Iowa

            The Ravens are a team that doesn’t reach and usually goes with their board.  Here I think it’s possible their board might just fill a major need for them.  The offensive line wasn’t good last year and they lost C Bradley Bozeman in free agency.  The have to get better up front to help Lamar Jackson and re-establish their running game.  Linderbaum is an undersized center but he doesn’t play like one.  He’s strong as an ox, physical on the interior, and quick as can be.  He’s arguably the best center prospect in the last decade (maybe longer) and the Ravens did pretty good with the last interior lineman they had from Iowa, Marshall Yanda.  Linderbaum is a day-one starter for whatever team drafts him.  The only concern has been a foot injury from the bowl game that has kept him from working out.  If the foot injury concerns come out fine, he may not even be here at this point. 

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami):  Trent McDuffie      CB     Washington

            Darius Slay had a resurgent season last year but he’s 31 and the team doesn’t have much behind him at CB.  McDuffie is a versatile guy who can play in any system and he can play inside and out.  He can play outside and allow Avonte Maddux to stay in the slot or he can move inside when needed.  The Eagles have a chance to really enhance their roster with their two first-round picks and McDuffie would fill a huge need in the secondary.  They made a trade with the Saints and sent one of their first-round picks to New Orleans and got back a pick next year.  They are going to give Jalen Hurts the year to prove he’s their QB of the future but if he stumbles, they are set up to make a move for a QB in next year’s draft.  

16. New Orleans Saints (from Philly/Indy):  Matt Corral       QB      Ole Miss

            The Saints made a deal to pick up two of the Eagles first round picks in this draft for one of theirs this year, a first rounder next year and some other picks.  It seems like a strange pickup unless they have a few things they really want since they only moved up two spots and then also got another pick in the same area.  The Saints have two really big needs, LT and QB.  They could now package 16 and 19 in this draft to move up for one of those or grab who they want here.  Unless they are sure Trevor Penning is their guy at LT they are out of luck at OT, but they might like Matt Corral enough to take him.  He’s a gamer.  He can throw it around and they didn’t commit long-term to Jameis Winston.  Winston buys them time to develop Corral if he needs it but he’s not an impediment to Corral taking the job as soon as he’s ready.  They made this move with something in mind and I don’t think you give up a first rounder next year for just anyone.  Although, it is the Saints and they once traded a future first round pick to move up for Marcus Davenport, so I can’t count them out of anything.  I wouldn’t have traded a future first rounder to move up for Matt Corral but I have spent a week trying to figure out the Saints thinking on this and I still have no idea.            

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8):  Trevor Penning      OT      Northern Iowa

            If Penning, or any other good OT, makes it to the Chargers at 17, they will send their fastest player sprinting to the podium with the name on the card.  The team signed DTs Austin Johnson and Sebastian Joseph-Day to address their interior defensive line needs.  They signed JC Jackson to fill a major hole at CB and they traded for Khalil Mack to be the edge rusher they need opposite Joey Bosa.  That leaves the offensive line as the giant glaring weakness of the team.  Bryan Bulaga wasn’t the answer last season at RT because he was hurt.  Storm Norton filled in and he’s not the answer either.  The team has to either draft a guy or move Matt Feiler to RT from LG and that weakens the left side of the line.  Justin Herbert is ready to emerge as a force but he can’t do it laying on the ground.  Penning is a gigantic human at 6’7 320+ lbs.  He comes from a small school but he doesn’t have to be great, he just needs to not be awful to be a major upgrade.  Spencer Brown came from Northern Iowa last season and ended up the starter in Buffalo at RT, he was solid and that’s all the Chargers need.  Penning also shouldn’t be the last offensive lineman this team drafts, they can upgrade at RG too. 

18. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans):  Jordan Davis      DT      Georgia

            There are a lot of mock drafts calling for the Eagles to draft a WR or a LB in round one.  I think after signing Zach Pascal and drafting WRs in the first round the last two years they might want to give Pascal, Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins and some others a chance before replacing them with a third first round WR.  The team also signed Hassan Reddick and Kyzir White at LB.  If they want their LBs to be better, get them some help up front.  Fletcher Cox was released and re-signed to a one-year deal because he was overpaid and he’ll be 32 next season.  Javon Hargrave is pushing 30 and the team lost Hassan Ridgeway in free agency.  Davis blew the doors off the combine with his ridiculous athletic showing.  A man that big shouldn’t move the way he does.  A lot of drafts have him skyrocketing towards the top ten, I’m not buying it.  Davis lost about 20 lbs. from his playing weight during the season to really show off at the combine.  The problem is can he be effective at that weight?   The answer is probably not.  He is a major run-stuffing force when he’s at 360 lbs. but he can’t play as many snaps.  If he plays at 340, he might be able to play more but can he be effective?  I think those questions keep him around this range in the draft.  He can be excellent as a rotational player early and hopefully find his best physical shape for his NFL career. 

19. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia):  Chris Olave      WR      Ohio St.

            The Saints need to replace Terron Armstead at LT after he signed with Miami as a free agent but they passed on Penning and there’s a drop off after him.  They could count on James Hurst full-time but that seems like a bad idea.  They could sign a stopgap guy like Eric Fisher and grab a developmental guy later in the draft (probably a better idea than reaching for one here).  What they can get is a legit WR to play opposite Michael Thomas, assuming he actually plays this season.  The Saints have spent far too much time trying to develop guys like Tre’Quan Smith or Marquez Calloway, it’s time to take the most polished guy in the draft.  Chris Olave broke WR records at Ohio St, that’s impressive.  He’s the best route-runner in the class and he would bring something to the table Michael Thomas doesn’t, speed.  Jameis Winston is likely the starter next year and he can throw a nice deep ball but he needs a guy he can count on.  Olave is nothing if not reliable.  He would also give Matt Corral a guy to develop with for next few years. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1):  Devonte Wyatt      DT      Georgia

            There’s a possibility that Wyatt and his Georgia teammate Davis swap spots here, the Eagles could like Wyatt better as a Fletcher Cox replacement.  Many mock drafts have the Steelers taking a QB or a CB but I’m not sold on that move.  They signed Mitchell Trubisky so they don’t have to reach for a QB and unless Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis falls this far, I think they pass at QB.  They could use a CB but I think Wyatt is a better prospect than Andrew Booth Jr or Kaiir Elam at this point.  Cameron Heyward will be 33, Tyson Alualu is 34, and even Stephon Tuitt is 29.  They need new blood up front and Wyatt would be a great fit for them.  He can play anywhere along their three-man front and excel at any of the spots.  He’s a dynamic player who could learn a lot from their veteran guys while spelling them this year and then taking over. 

21. New England Patriots (10-7):  Andrew Booth Jr.      CB      Clemson

            The Patriots have two glaring needs after free agency, offensive guard and CB.  For now, the top three CBs are Malcolm Butler, Jalen Mills, and Jonathan Jones. Jones is coming off an injury, Butler is coming out of retirement and Mills is terrible.  Booth is a man-to-man CB and the Patriots know how to play to their guys’ strengths.  Booth would be the most talented CB on the roster from day one and I think he starts almost immediately (I have zero confidence in Butler or Mills).  The team could opt for an OG like Zion Johnson out of Boston College or Kenyon Green from Texas A&M, and either would immediately start too but you can find starting offensive guards later in the draft.  I like Booth as a top four CB in this draft and I think there’s a drop off after him.  The Patriots traded for Devante Parker from the Dolphins so he comes in as the big WR they need, he’s not great but he’s better than N’Keal Harry. 

22. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas):  Drake London      WR      USC

            This is the first-round pick the Packers picked up in the Adams trade so it’s only fitting they go get a guy to replace him as their #1 WR.  He won’t be Adams but London brings a ton of talent to Green Bay and he’s an upgrade over Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.  London has elite size and contested-catch ability.  He is 6’4 220 lbs. and he’s a great athlete.  He’s not going to be a deep threat or take the top off the defense with speed but Aaron Rodgers can throw it up to him and he’ll go get it. He’ll be a menace in the red zone and while he shouldn’t be the only WR they take in the draft; he’ll be an immediate starter for the Packers. 

23. Arizona Cardinals (11-6):  Zion Johnson      OG      Boston College

            The Cardinals have a young QB in Kyler Murray but they don’t have an offensive line that will age with him.  This season LG Justin Pugh will be 32, C Rodney Hudson will be 33, RT Kelvin Beachem will also be 33, LT DJ Humphries will be 29 by the end of the season and even top back up Justin Murray will be 29 this year.  That leaves the newly signed RG Will Hernandez at 26 as the only young guy and he’s been mostly a disappointment the last few years which is why he was available.  Zion Johnson is a beast and has Pro Bowl potential at OG.  He has played OT and he even tried out center during Senior Bowl week but his best position is guard.  This team needs an infusion of youth on the line and Johnson can be that guy.  That said, Steve Keim probably screws this up and drafts a WR to replace Christian Kirk and placate Kyler Murray. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Devin Lloyd      LB      Utah

            If one of the top DTs falls here, I can see the Cowboys jumping on it but they are gone at this point.  It’s possible they take George Karlaftis at DE but I like the Lloyd fit better.  This team has been through the ringer at LB.  Jaylon Smith fell out of favor quickly after signing a big extension and was cut last season.  Leighton Vander Esch has tons of talent but he has a persistent back injury.  Micah Parsons was a steal in last year’s draft but he’s so talented as a pass rusher it’s a waste to just consistently line him up at LB.  The great thing about Lloyd is that he’s a multi-talented guy too and they could mix and match him with Parsons.  Lloyd has some pass rushing skills while also being a great run defender.  He proved this last season he can stay on the field for all three downs and that’s the type of player that would help the Cowboys defense in so many ways. 

25. Buffalo Bills (11-6):  Kaiir Elam      CB      Florida

            The Bills look like a juggernaut.  They added Jamison Crowder to replace Cole Beasley as their slot receiver.  They signed Von Miller to replace Jerry Hughes as their top pass rusher and they still have Josh Allen leading the way.  Tre’Davious White is coming back from an injury and the team lost Levi Wallace in free agency so they need some help at CB.  Elam is a bit of a forgotten man and while there is a bit of a drop off from the top four CBs to the next tier, Elam has legit starter potential.  I put him here because he’s a better scheme fit for the Bills than Roger McCreary.  Elam has elite size and he’s a really good zone coverage CB.  He would be a huge upgrade opposite White and could be the final piece to the puzzle on Buffalo’s defense. 

26. Tennessee Titans (12-5):  Nakobe Dean      LB      Georgia

            The Titans cut Janoris Jenkins at CB but they drafted Caleb Farley last year and now they have to hope he can come back from his injury and become the starter they need.  They traded for Robert Woods as the replacement for Julio Jones and they re-signed Harold Landry at OLB.  They signed Austin Hooper to fill the hole at TE too.  That leaves OG as a weakness but they would have to really love Kenyon Green to pass on Dean and he is way too good to pass up.  The team needs some help at ILB because David Long Jr isn’t overly productive and I’m not sure what they have in Zach Cunningham, who they got from Houston last year.  Dean is a playmaking freak that could help solidify the defense in the middle.  He also happens to be the best player available at this point. 

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4):  Kenyon Green      OG      Texas A&M

            This would be a dream come true for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.  They have one major hole on offense and it’s at LG.  Green is a beast and he’s played everywhere on the line except center and he would immediately slot in at LG in place of the retired Ali Marpet.  There are some that rate him as the best interior offensive lineman in this draft (I would disagree with that assessment) but either way, he’s a day one starter filling a major need.  He also offers some versatility to swing out to OT in a pinch since the team doesn’t have a ton of depth on the line.  The Buccaneers will need to look for some help on the defensive line if they don’t want to have to bring back Ndamukong Suh again.  Green played everywhere but center in college so he can be a backup in case of injury at OT, something this team doesn’t have much of right now.    

28. Green Bay Packers (13-4): George Karlaftis      DE/OLB      Purdue

            The Packers go with the best available player here even though he might be an odd fit.  They run a 3-4 defense and Karlaftis is a 4-3 end but he can play standing up and he would add some pass rush they desperately need.  Preston Smith and Rashan Gary are set to be their edge guys but they lost Za’Darius Smith and they have no depth.  Karlaftis is a power rusher so he brings different set of skills but the Packers defense needs more pass rushing help and Karlaftis is the best guy available. 

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Miami/SF):  Treylon Burks      WR      Arkansas

            The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and while they did sign Marquez Valdez-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster there’s a lot of production to be replaced.  Valdez-Scantling is a speedy deep threat and Smith-Schuster is a good slot receiver, but their passing game approach is going to have to evolve and Burks would bring the run-after-the-catch skills the others don’t have.  He’s a big WR who is built like Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown and that is something the Chiefs don’t have. The team does still have Mecole Hardman but relying on him seems like a gamble.  The team hasn’t been very active in free agency so the need to take advantage of the extra draft capital they have. 

30. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5):  David Ojabo       DE      Michigan

            With an extra first-round pick the Chiefs can take a bit of a gamble here on a guy with enormous upside who also might not play next season.  Ojabo is an elite athlete with great pass rushing potential but he was always going to be developmental guy early and likely only a pass rushing specialist in year one. Then he tore his Achilles during his pro day and his draft stock has taken a tumble.  He is almost assuredly going to sit out next season rehabbing, although Cam Akers came back to the Rams in six months.  It looks like Ojabo will fall out of round one but I’m not so sure.  A team like the Chiefs, with two first-round picks can take a chance he gets back for the end of the season or simply wait it out and give him the year to heal.  The advantage to taking him at the end of the first round instead of in the second or third is a first-round contract comes with a fifth-year option so if you lose his first year, you still have four more years of control.  He has the talent; you may just have to wait a while to see it.   

31. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7):  Roger McCreary      CB      Auburn

            The Bengals used free agency to attack their biggest weakness and they did it quite well.  They signed OG Alex Cappa, C Ted Karras and most importantly RT La’el Collins.  They could still use one more upgrade inside (Karras could play guard if they find another center) but they also have Jackson Carman who could be fine at OG.  Either way, their offensive line is much improved.  Now on to their second biggest issue, cornerback.  Chidobe Awuzie isn’t great but he’s not terrible and Mike Hilton is a good slot corner but Eli Apple should only be the stopgap on the other side.  McCreary is a fantastic athlete with great skills and the temperament to be a top-flight CB.  He isn’t going to back down and even though he isn’t the biggest guy, he doesn’t shy away from competing for the ball.  He also happens to be one of the best prospects left on the board. The Bengals should seriously consider taking multiple CBs in this draft and hoping they hit on a few, they need more than just one.    

32. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams):  Sam Howell      QB      North Carolina

            I just feel like the Lions will take a shot at a QB here because they will get an extra year on the contract for a 1^st round pick.  It’s hard to decipher who the QB they might like actually is but it could be Desmond Ridder or it could be Howell. Howell seems to be a Dan Campbell sort of guy.  He’s undersized but gritty, never backs down, and plays with an all-out aggressive style.  Howell is not afraid to take chances down the field and he would bring a different dynamic than Jared Goff.  Goff won’t roll over and let him take the job without a fight, which is good, because Howell may not be ready immediately.  He isn’t the biggest guy, he’s not the fastest guy, and he’s not the flashiest guy but he’s tough and that will go a long way with Campbell. 

Round 2

33. Jacksonville: Daxton Hill      S      Michigan

            Jacksonville needs to just keep adding talent and they find it again at Michigan.  Hill is a playmaking safety with great coverage skills and he can play in slot.  They have some nice pieces in the secondary but you can never have too many cover guys.

34. Detroit: Jameson Williams      WR      Alabama

            Williams would have gone much sooner except he tore his ACL in the National Championship game in January.  That’s a tough injury for a skinny WR who relies heavily on his elite speed.  It’s that elite speed the Lions need.  DJ Chark is coming back from an injury, Josh Reynolds has bounced around for a reason, and Amon-Ra St. Brown needs some help.  St. Brown can dominate underneath; they need someone to take the top off the defense for Sam Howell or whomever they get at QB.

35. New York Jets:  Tariq Woolen      CB      UT-San Antonio

            The Jets needs CB help but they missed out on the top guys.  They go for the guy with incredible upside in Woolen.  He’s only played CB for two years after starting his career as a WR and brings elite size and athleticism to the position.  He’s 6’3 205 lbs., you can’t teach that.

36. New York Giants:  Travis Jones      NT      UConn

            The Giants need to be better up front on defense.  They signed Justin Ellis as a free agent but he’ll be 32 by the end of the year.  They need a younger NT and Jones is perfectly suited for the job.  He’s big, 6’4 325 lbs., and he can really clog up the middle. 

37. Houston:  Lewis Cine      S      Georgia

            The Texans lost their best player in their secondary, Justin Reid, and they are pretty thin at the position.  Cine played on an elite defense at Georgia, this will be a step down for him but he’s an upgrade for them.

38. New York Jets:  Jahan Dotson      WR      Penn St.

            The Jets have Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Braxton Berrios as their top WR.  They need a true #1.  Davis has never proven to be one and I would like Moore playing inside with Berrios coming off the bench.  Dotson is an elite route-runner with the speed and separation to be a true #1 for Zach Wilson. 

39. Chicago Bears (6-11):  Bernhard Raimann      OT       Central Michigan

            The Bears could go a number of different ways here.  They could grab a WR like David Bell, a defensive lineman like Perrion Winfrey or Arnold Ebiketie, or even a safety like Jaquan Brisker but I think they go up front.  They need to get better protection for Justin Fields and while Raimann is a bit of a project, he would still be one of their better offensive linemen pretty quickly.  Raimann has LT potential which would allow Teven Jenkins to slide back over to RT.  Raimann is fairly new to football but he’s got prototypical size, the athleticism to play the left side and he’s just scratching the surface of his potential.  In the right environment, he could be a high-level LT for years to come.

40. Seattle:  Daniel Faalele      OT      Minnesota

            The Seahawks have the worst OT situation in the NFL.  Stone Forsythe, Jake Curhan, and Greg Eiland are the names on the depth chart right now.  It doesn’t look like Duane Brown will be re-signing which wouldn’t be much of a loss considering how he played last year. Then you look at what they have and it’s no wonder Russell Wilson wanted out so bad.  Faalele is going to take some time to develop but he’ll be better than what they have right now. 

41. Seattle:  Darrian Kinnard      OL      Kentucky

            Kinnard played OT at Kentucky but he’s seen as a guy who will move inside.  He might have to stay outside at OT for a year if he goes to Seattle.  After that he could move inside to guard, Gabe Jackson is on the wrong side of 30.  If there was a pure OT worth taking here, I would absolutely give Seattle two OTs in a row, they need them that bad.  Instead, they just take the two best linemen left.

42. Indianapolis Colts (9-8):  David Bell      WR      Purdue

            The Colts traded Carson Wentz after one year and went out and traded for Matt Ryan to replace him.  You don’t do that unless you plan to compete and this team can compete with a few tweaks here and there.  They need a LT but they will probably go the veteran stopgap at this point.  They made some moves on defense to sure up a few things so that leaves WR as a major area of need.  TY Hilton is a free agent (and they shouldn’t bring him back) and Parris Campbell has never stayed healthy leaving Michael Pittman Jr as the only reliable WR.  Bell is an Indianapolis high school legend and would be very comfortable coming home.  He’s a brilliant technician, he has a variety of moves and he would make Matt Ryan’s life easier.  Ryan has always been a precision passer with a high IQ and having a great route-runner like Bell would be a perfect match.  The Colts can compete with the Titans for the division if they hit on a few key rookies with their draft picks.  If Bell ends up in a situation like this, he would be my dark horse pick for Rookie of the Year. 

43. Atlanta:  Logan Hall      DE      Houston

            Hall is a beast at 6’6 283 lbs. and he’s perfectly built to be an end in a 3-4 defense, and that’s what Dean Pees runs for Atlanta.  It’s about time they get Grady Jarrett some legit help up front and Hall is an underrated player.  He mostly played inside at Houston and he’s really better suited for the 5-technique spot.  He’s a good one.

44. Cleveland Browns (8-9):  Perrion Winfrey      DT      Oklahoma

            The Browns gave up a lot to go get Deshaun Watson and they believe he’s the missing piece to put this team over the top.  I think they need more help at WR and they certainly need more help on the defensive line.  There are some veterans they could bring in at each position but it looks like they will wait until after the draft to give another look at Jadeveon Clowney, Odell Beckham Jr, or even someone like Ndamukong Suh.  Winfrey has been a bit overshadowed given the depth of the defensive line prospects in this draft and that’s just the Georgia guys.  Winfrey had a great year at Oklahoma and then he went to the Senior Bowl and was a complete menace.  He’s a gap penetrating tackle who would truly enjoy playing with a guy like Myles Garrett who takes a bunch of the offensive linemen’s attention.  He would thrive in this situation. 

45. Baltimore:  Kyler Gordon      CB      Washington

            The Ravens were pretty beat up at CB last year with both Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters dealing with injuries.  The team has no real depth to speak of and Peters is 29 and has bounced around plenty.  Gordon is affectionately known as “the other Washington CB” since he’s not Trent McDuffie, but he’s a good player too.  He’s a good athlete and has starter potential in the NFL.

46. Minnesota:  Jaquan Brisker      S      Penn St.

            The Vikings double up with picks for their secondary.  As much as they need a CB, they probably need a safety just as much.  Harrison Smith is 33 and he can’t play forever and beyond Smith and Camryn Bynum there is no depth at all.  Brisker could play either safety spot and gives them flexibility moving forward.  For now, he’s just an excellent back-end player, something they need more of. 

47. Washington:  Chad Muma      LB      Wyoming

            The Commanders could go a number of directions but I think they continue to focus on their underachieving defense from last season.  They added Jamin Davis last year and this year they give him Chad Muma as a running mate.  Muma is a three-down backer who can cover and play the run.  He has versatility to play multiple positions at LB so he’s a nice fit next to Davis. 

48. Chicago: Skyy Moore      WR      Western Michigan

            Moore is the underrated guy at WR coming out of a smaller school.  He’s been extremely productive and he is a perfectly built slot receiver.  He’s quick as can be and he would be a fantastic addition to the offense for Justin Fields.  His ability to get open over the middle would make it much easier for the young QB. 

49. New Orleans:  Braxton Jones      OT      Southern Utah

            This is my shot in the dark pick.  The Saints needs a LT of the future and this is the team that once took a shot on a skinny LT out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff named Terron Armstead.  Armstead just left in free agency because he’s really good and priced himself out of New Orleans.  Jones is long, lean and underdeveloped but he has many traits you look for in a LT.  This is early for him but I’m taking a shot (mostly because I don’t really like Nicolas Petit-Frere from OSU that much). 

50. Kansas City:  Jalen Pitre      S      Baylor

            Kansas City decided to sign Justin Reid at safety and let Tyrann Mathieu leave in free agency.  Juan Thornhill is the other safety but he’s in the last year of his deal.  Pitre is a versatile defender who would make a great third safety and give the Chiefs some protection against losing Thornhill next year. 

51. Philadelphia:  Tyler Smith      OG      Tulsa

            Brandon Brooks retired, Isaac Seumalo shouldn’t be a starter, and eventually Landon Dickerson will have to move to center to replace Jason Kelce who’s 35 years old.  They need help inside.  Smith is a beast and he brings a nasty demeanor, he should fit right in. 

52. Pittsburgh:  Boye Mafe      OLB      Minnesota

            The Steelers really like Alex Highsmith and he does a nice job but they need more juice opposite TJ Watt and Mafe is raw but he has loads of potential.  He’s highly athletic and with some refinement, he will be a really good pass rusher. 

53. Green Bay:  Trey McBride      TE      Colorado St.

            Green Bay needs as many new options in the passing game as possible with Devante Adams in Vegas.  Robert Tonyan is coming off an injury and Mercedes Lewis is going to be 38.  McBride is great in the passing game and he can line up all over. 

54. New England:  Jamaree Salyer      OG      Georgia

            The Patriots traded away Shaq Mason because they didn’t want to pay him and that was a year after they let Joe Thuney walk in free agency.  They don’t want to spend a lot at OG and there’s nothing cheaper than a rookie.  Salyer is a mauler inside and he would be huge in the running game. 

55. Arizona:  George Pickens      WR      Georgia

            AJ Green is gone, Christian Kirk is gone, and they need someone to play opposite DeAndre Hopkins on the outside so Rondale Moore can play inside.  Pickens barely played last year due to an ACL tear but he looked just fine running at the combine.  He has size and speed. 

56. Dallas:  DeMarvin Leal      DT      Texas A&M

            Leal came into the year as a top prospect but had an uneven season.  He’s a bit of a tweener not really being DT size but not quick enough for DE.  He should play inside and Dallas needs plenty of help there.  This might be high for him; he seems to be falling. 

57. Buffalo:  Breece Hall      RB      Iowa St

            It took until the 57^th pick for me to have a RB go but here it is.  The Bills have almost everything they need but as good as Devin Singletary was down the stretch last year, he’s not a work horse back.  Hall has the size and skill to be a full-time guy but also works just fine in a duo.  Zack Moss fell off a cliff last year and the Bills need someone to step in.  Hall should be the first RB off the board.

58. Atlanta:  Desmond Ridder      QB      Cincinnati

            It’s tough to think Ridder won’t go before this but for now this is where I’m slotting him.  There are a few teams that could take a chance on him (Washington, Philly) but they don’t pull the trigger.  Atlanta would be wise to take a shot and they may do it with their earlier 2^nd round pick but for now it’s here. Ridder was a four-year starter and he’s a superior athlete but he has some issues with accuracy and decision making, that holds him back.  Maybe Arthur Smith can fix him. 

59. Green Bay:  Christian Harris     LB      Alabama

            De’Vondre Campbell broke out last year at ILB and they re-signed him but Krys Barnes is the other ILB and I don’t think he’s quite as established.  Harris is a multi-talented guy from Alabama so you know he knows how to play.  He can help in the middle and on special teams.

60. Tampa Bay:  Phidarian Mathis      DL      Alabama

            The team needs to replace Ndamukong Suh and Mathis is a versatile defensive lineman who can play anywhere up front.  His time at Alabama will serve him well as they generally cross-train their lineman.  Tampa needs to get younger at DE for sure.

61. San Francisco 49ers (10-7):  Cole Strange      OL      Chattanooga

            The 49ers lost Laken Tomlinson in free agency and Daniel Brunskill is one of those guys who plays just well enough you want to replace him all the time.  They can hope Aaron Banks steps up at one OG position but C Alex Mack will be 37 in November too.  Strange is from a small school but he showed great versatility throughout his career and looked good at the Senior Bowl.  He will likely start out as a guard but the 49ers could develop him as Mack’s eventual replacement too.  He fits the profile of a guy Kyle Shanahan would like because he’s long, lean and athletic, the perfect zone scheme lineman.  The 49ers could also go with a WR like Christian Watson to give them a deep threat on the outside but Shanahan will likely prioritize the line.

62. Kansas City:  Cameron Thomas      DE      San Diego St.

            The Chiefs double up at DE after taking Ojabo in round one.  Ojabo was about potential, Thomas should help right away.  He isn’t quite as dynamic of an athlete but he understands the position better.  He can help right away because he can play on the end, set an edge in the run game, and even rush from the inside if the team wants to play a game with him and Chris Jones.  Also, Frank Clark is getting awfully expensive, two DEs isn’t a bad draft strategy. 

63. Cincinnati:  Arnold Ebiketie      DE      Penn St.

            Trey Hendrickson balled out with 14 sacks last year and Sam Hubbard had a respectable 7.5.  The defense was good but it can be better with more pressure.  The secondary got their guy in round one, here’s the guy to rev up the pass rush.  Ebiketie needs to be a designated pass rusher to start his career and that’s perfect, it’s exactly what the Bengals need him to do. 

64. Denver Broncos (7-10):  Nik Bonitto      OLB      Oklahoma

            The Broncos are taking their first pick here because they traded away a bunch of draft picks for Russell Wilson.  The offense should be pretty solid if they can get their offensive line to play fairly well, there’s talent there to work with.  Wilson should like his WRs just fine and while they traded away Noah Fant in the Wilson trade, they still have Albert O who is probably the best pass catching TE Wilson has had since Jimmy Graham.  Javonte Williams should be a star at RB.  The defense should see some changes in scheme as the coaching staff transitions.  Randy Gregory is probably better suited for a four-man front as is new DT DJ Jones.  Bonitto is a good edge rusher who can be more of an OLB but play in multiple fronts.  They need some depth there and he’s good value here.  Gregory and Bradley Chubb have had their issues staying on the field so hedging their bets a bit with Bonitto isn’t a bad idea for this defense.  

            Every time I try to start my next NFL mock draft some massive trade happens and I have to start over so I’m just going to wait it out another week or so, in the meantime, Iowa released their two-deeps heading into spring practice.  There’s a very good chance this two-deep roster is complete garbage in a month and it’s almost completely useless when considering next season (that’s not really true but it feels that way). 

            The biggest off season story lines for the Hawkeyes are losing three really talented underclassmen early to the NFL; Tyler Linderbaum, Tyler Goodson and Dane Belton, the coaching staff changes and…oh yeah, who’s going to take the starting QB job?  Losing Linderbaum, Goodson and Belton early hurts but any good team is going to have early entry guys and you just have to find their replacements. 

            Moving Brian Ferentz to QB coach from TE coach to go with his offensive coordinator duties is Kirk doubling down on his son.  The same guy running an offense that finished near the bottom of the offensive rankings last season, it could go very badly, very quickly.  Abdul Hodge was brought in to coach TEs, I like that move.  He’s a good young coach with ties to Florida and he should be a great addition to the staff.

            Finally, the QB position. They have a new coach and his first responsibility is to figure out his starter.  Let’s begin there. 

OFFENSE

Quarterback (I’m not listing them as Starter and/or Backup on purpose)

Spencer Petras (SR)

Alex Padilla (JR)

Joe Labas (RS Fr)

            Spencer Petras has mostly been the guy for the past two seasons but the fact that there’s a competition tells you all you need to know about his play.  Alex Padilla looked good at times last year when he got a chance but also had moments he looked as rough as Petras.  These two were bound to compete for the job but the spring two-deeps also has Joe Labas listed.  He’s a redshirt freshman who could steal the job.  The hope is that having the offensive coordinator be the QB coach will improve the QB play, well, I’m not sure it can make it worse (and no Brian, that’s not to be taken as challenge). 

            Petras is the quintessential Iowa QB; big, strong-armed and doesn’t move all that well.  Padilla is the smaller, quicker guy with the legs to get himself out of trouble as long as they aren’t getting him into trouble.  Petras found some touch last season but his main problem seems to be making a quick decision and getting rid of the ball (that’s not a great trait when your o-line was as bad as Iowa’s last season).  He also simply misses too many throws.  Padilla was much better early on when he replaced Petras at making a decision and getting the ball out.  That tailed off as teams figured him out a bit and took away his easy reads. 

            Labas is the wildcard.  Apparently, he looked really good during bowl prep when he finally got a chance to run the Iowa offense and not just be the scout team QB.  He’s not as big as Petras and probably not as nimble as Padilla but he should be more of a mix of the two.  After watching the debacle that was last year’s offense, I’m hoping Labas comes out the winner.  Or true freshman Carson May could come out of nowhere in the fall, just please don’t subject us to the Petras/Padilla roulette wheel again.  My biggest hope is that by the law of averages, Iowa’s QB and offense can’t possibly be as bad as they were in 2021 (again, that’s not a challenge). 

Running Backs/Fullback

Starters: Gavin Williams (SO), Monte Pottebaum (SR)

Backup: Leshon Williams (SO), Turner Pallissard (SR)

            With Tyler Goodson off to the NFL the RB job is Gavin Williams’ for the taking.  He really played well in the bowl game and I like the way he runs.  He’s got power, speed and he likes to run downhill, also, he’s not afraid of contact.  He is well-built and has good balance when he gets hit.  He’s going to get some competition from Leshon Williams who also looked good in the bowl game.  Leshon is slightly smaller but still well-built and maybe has a little more speed.  Pottebaum and Pallissard return at FB and no defense wants to see those guys coming through a hole to throw a block.  

            The problem this spring is that there isn’t a lot of depth at RB so it’s basically the Williams show.  Freshman Deavin Hilson redshirted in 2021 but I’m not completely convinced RB is his ultimate position.  The team will have to wait until true freshmen RBs Jaziun Patterson and Kaleb Johnson get on the campus this summer to know if there is any real competition at RB.  It seems like there’s a possibility at least one of them gets carries next season. 

Wide Receivers

Starters: Keegan Johnson (SO), Nico Ragaini (SR), Charlie Jones (SR)

Backups: Arland Bruce (SO), Jackson Ritter (JR)

Others: Diante Vines (SO), Brody Brecht (RS Fr)

            Keegan Johnson broke out as a true freshman last season and he really clicked when Alex Padilla became the starting QB.  He’s the most talented WR on the roster and he’s a game breaker.  Charlie Jones returns for his super, super senior year to prove he’s more than just an excellent returner.  He was a really good at WR last year but he would really benefit from more consistent QB play.  Nico Ragaini returns as the slot guy and while he had some struggles last year, the talent is there as an inside receiver. 

            Arland Bruce had his moments and hopefully the Hawkeyes expand the ways they use him this year.  He’s not simply a receiver, he’s an all-purpose weapon.  The Hawkeyes have to find ways to get the ball in his hands even if he isn’t in the starting lineup.  Jackson Ritter is a walk-on WR who earned some playing time before Johnson and Bruce got going in the freshman seasons.  Ritter is a bigger bodied WR compared to most of the rest of the roster so he brings a different element. 

            There are two guys on the roster the team has to hope can make a move next season and that starts in spring practice.  Diante Vines has already been passed by a couple of guys younger than him (Johnson and Bruce) but he has stuck around to compete.  It’s now or never.  Brody Brecht redshirted last season as he was coming off an injury, if he’s healthy he adds a nice size element to the WR corps. 

Tight Ends

Starter: Sam LaPorta (SR)

Backup: Luke Lachey (SO)

            Sam LaPorta’s ascension to the top tier TE prospect everyone expects him to be stalled a bit last year but I attribute most of that to the uneven QB play (“uneven” is the nice way to put it).  He has all the talent you can need to become the top TE in college football next year and become the top TE prospect for the NFL.  Iowa QB’s have to be better and if they are, LaPorta will have a great year.  Lachey is only a sophomore and he’s in line to be the next great Iowa TE.  He played well last season and he should only get better this year. 

            The problem for the Hawkeyes is there is no depth to speak of for spring except for some walk-ons.  Elijah Yelverton is apparently giving up football and Josiah Miamen transferred out.  Iowa does have a commitment from a transfer, Steven Stilianos from Lafayette College but he isn’t here for the spring.  In the fall, it’s him, some walk-ons and the true freshmen competing for the third TE spot.  Stilianos would seem to be in good shape.

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Mason Richman (SO), LG Justin Britt (JR), C Tyler Elsbury (SO), RG Connor Colby (SO), RT Jack Plumb (SR)

Backups: LT David Davidkov (RS Fr), LG Beau Stephens (RS Fr), C Matt Fagan (SR)/Logan Jones (SO), RG Josh Volk (SO), RT Nick DeJong (JR)

Others: Michael Myslinski, Gennings Dunker, Griffin Liddle (All RS Fr)

            This is where most of Iowa’s offensive problems started last season and the ones that didn’t start here (poor QB play) were exacerbated by it.  Losing the best center in the country and a senior starting guard isn’t going to help.  It also hurts that Cody Ince, a likely starter at guard, has decided to retire from football.  The hope is that the youth from last year’s line matures and develops after a year of trial by fire. 

            Mason Richman started most of last season as an undersized redshirt freshman at LT and it showed.  He has plenty of talent to work with but it would help if he gets good a little faster.  Connor Colby took over the RG job after some early rotating and he was a true freshman.  I have to say I would be a little surprised if Colby doesn’t get at least a cursory look at RT this spring.  Jack Plumb and Nick DeJong basically split the RT job last year and they are the upper classmen of this group.  Neither was particularly good so if one of them doesn’t lock down the job this spring with a far better performance, Connor Colby, David Davidkov and maybe Beau Stephens could all get a look there.  Justin Britt is a junior penciled in at LG but he’s had injury issues and struggled at times, with the sheer volume of guys behind him, he has to play well to keep that job.

            Now for the center position.  Tyler Elsbury is listed as the starter but I consider that tentative.  Matt Fagan is a senior walk-on the coaches will give a shot at the job but he’s probably not the answer either.  The coaching staff moved Logan Jones from DT to C in the off season and while he’s been injured a bit, he has tremendous physical gifts.  If may seem like a stretch to take a guy who has been playing DT and turn him into a starting center in one off season but that’s the exact path Tyler Linderbaum took and if I were a betting man, I’m taking Logan Jones as the starter at center in the fall.  The coaches didn’t take him from the defensive tackle rotation so he could sit on the bench as a backup center. 

            The backups aren’t going to just quietly sit back and let the starters have their jobs.  With the exception of Connor Colby, none of these starters cemented a starting spot last year and I can’t guarantee Colby starts at RG, he could be an OT pretty easily.  David Davidkov and Beau Stephens are exceptionally talented guys, they are just young and Davidkov had some injury issues last season that set him back.  Matt Fagan is a senior looking to take a spot and Nick DeJong has been a starter before.  Hopefully the competition leads to the best five guys getting out there and coming together as a unit. 

            Michael Myslinski, Gennings Dunker, and Griffin Liddle are all redshirt freshmen who are either coming back from injury, fighting injury or are still learning offensive line.  They are talented youngsters who just need some development time.   

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Starters: DE John Waggoner (SR), DE Joe Evans (SR), DT Noah Shannon (SR), DT Logan Lee (JR)

Backups: DE Max Llewellyn (RS Fr), DE Deontae Craig (SO), DT Lukas Van Ness (SO), DT Yahya Black (SO)

Others: DE Jeff Bowie (RS Fr) DE Caden Crawford (FR), DE Brian Allen (FR), DT Jeremiah Pittman (RS Fr)

            The inexperienced defensive line from last year is now a senior-laden group with some very exciting underclassmen pushing them for playing time.  John Waggoner and Joe Evans are somehow seniors at DE and they both got a lot of playing time last season so they should be ready to go.  Waggoner is strong and steady even if he isn’t the flashy sack guy.  Evans has beefed up over several years and now gets his chance to be a starter if he can hold up against the run.  Noah Shannon is a senior at DT and he was solid last year too.  He knows how to plug things up in the middle.  Logan Lee came on during the season last year after battling some injuries early and took over the starting spot.  He is an emerging talent.

            Deontae Craig got some valuable experience even if he wasn’t a full-time player.  Craig can hopefully fill the designated pass rusher spot Joe Evans has been the last few years since Evans is taking the full-time starter role.  Max Llewellyn will get a shot to find some playing time.  He’s earned a shot and he’ll be helped out by the fact that Ethan Hurkett is out this spring with an injury.  Lukas Van Ness was a revelation as a part-time player and he’s only going to get better with more playing time.  He’s an undersized DT but he’s a playmaker and was a fantastic interior rusher last year.  Yahya Black is the big man in the middle and he provides more size than Shannon, Lee or Van Ness.  Don’t be mistaken, he’s a good athlete too but his size is noticeable compared to the others. 

            Two redshirt freshmen and two early enrollee true freshmen are looking to develop this spring.  DE Jeff Bowie certainly looks the part and Jeremiah Pittman is a guy who also brings some much-needed size at DT.  Caden Crawford and Brian Allen are the two early enrollees who will look to get a jump on things at DE.  Both guys are talented but they are true freshmen so the odds they find playing time is slim. 

Linebackers

Starters: MLB Jack Campbell (SR), WLB Seth Benson (SR), LEO Jestin Jacobs (JR), Cash Sebastian Castro (JR)

Backups: MLB Jay Higgins (JR), WLB Kyler Fisher (JR), LEO Logan Klemp (SR)

Others: Jaden Harrell, Justice Sullivan, Zach Twedt, Karson Sharar (All RS Fr)

            This is the strongest position on the team with seniors Jack Campbell and Seth Benson leading the way.  The two of them never leave the field with Campbell directing everything from his MLB spot and Benson able to play on every down.  Campbell gets most of the hype and it’s much deserved but Benson is an outstanding LB too.  Jestin Jacobs shares the other spot with the cash position when Iowa goes to it’s five DB look.  However, with Jacobs’ development and the loss of Dane Belton we may see Jacobs play more than ever.  He’s a fantastic athlete who seems to get better with every rep.  For now, Sebastian Castro is penciled in at the cash spot and it should be interesting if he can hold on to it.  True freshman uber recruit Xavier Nwankpa is on campus early and he’s going to see the field somewhere. 

            Jay Higgins, Kyler Fisher, and Logan Klemp are all upperclassmen just waiting for a chance but have been stuck behind some very talented players.  Fisher is a former walk-on who has seen some time but Higgins and Klemp have mostly seen time on special teams.  They all add nice depth but they are a step down from the very talented starting group. 

            Harrell, Sullivan, Twedt, and Sharar all redshirted last year since there was just no chance they were going to see significant action.  All of them have potential moving forward and they should look to make an impact on special teams to get their feet wet.

Defensive Back

Starters: CB Riley Moss (SR), CB Jermari Harris (JR), SS Kaevon Merriweather (SR), FS Quinn Schulte (JR)

Backups: CB Terry Roberts (SR), CB Cooper DeJean (SO), SS Sebastian Castro (JR), FS Jaxon Rexroth (RS Fr)

Others: CB AJ Lawson (SO), CB Brenden Deasfernandes (SO), CB TJ Hall (FR), S Dallas Craddieth (SR), S Reggie Bracy (JR), S Xavier Nwankpa (FR)

            The only sure things in the secondary right now are CB Riley Moss and SS Kaevon Merriweather.  Moss comes back after winning the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year award and Merriweather is a multi-year starting senior.  That isn’t to say there are question marks elsewhere, it’s more like there are options, and we should all trust Phil Parker to figure out the best options.  For now, Jermari Harris gets the nod at CB opposite Moss.  He played last year when injuries struck and he started the bowl game.  He played fairly well and he’s got room to grow.  His competition is Terry Roberts.  He’s a senior who has started some but also has had some injury issues.  Roberts is a great special teams’ player and he’ll give Harris a run for his money for the starting spot.  Quinn Schulte is a walk-on safety looking to step in for Jack Koerner and while no one should doubt he could be the guy, he’s going to have to hold off some talented guys. 

            Roberts will compete for the starting spot and if he doesn’t win the starting spot, he’s an excellent third CB.  Cooper DeJean is listed as the other backup CB after ending the year at the position last season.  However, DeJean was recruited as a safety and there’s a chance, he competes for the FS spot.  If the coaches can get comfortable with one of the young CBs as the fourth guy, DeJean can move back to safety.  Castro is sort of in the same spot Belton was last year being the Cash and being a strong safety.  The difference is Belton was a full-time player while Castro still has to earn his playing time.  Jaxon Rexroth is a walk-on redshirt freshman who is apparently quite physically impressive.  He may grow out of the position but for now he will compete at safety. 

            The team could really use one of the young CBs to step up and at least be the fourth guy so DeJean can compete at safety.  Regardless, they need these young guys to step up because Moss, Roberts and Merriweather are all seniors.  AJ Lawson and Brenden Deasfernandes have been around a few years and need to show some development or they will get passed by younger guys at CB.  TJ Hall is an early enrollee CB who may already have the physical development to get playing time.  Dallas Craddieth is a senior who isn’t going to get time at safety but he’s a leader and a special teams’ guy and brings value there.  Reggie Bracy is a junior who needs to show progress this spring because he’s already losing ground to younger guys and walk-ons.  The x-factor is Xavier Nwankpa and that’s not just cleaver word play.  He’s a true freshman but he’s the highest rated recruit at Iowa in forever.  He could play cash, he could be a free safety, he could be a strong safety.  He’s going to get on the field, this spring is just the beginning of finding out where he fits best.

Kicker/ Punter

Aaron Blom and Lucas Amaya were already on campus and were likely to fight for the kicker job and now early enrollee Drew Stevens enters the mix.  It could be an all-out battle for the right to replace Caleb Shudak.  Punter is a different story.  Tory Taylor returns, it’s his job and he has All-American potential.       

            This mock draft comes after the Senior Bowl and after the Super Bowl and all teams have filled their head coaching vacancies.  There are still some coaching staffs in flux but with GMs and head coaches set it’s easier to figure out where teams might focus in the draft.  This is all subject to change when free agency hits in March and there are so many teams with QB questions things could get crazy quickly.  This draft doesn’t offer much for answers at QB but the free agency and especially the trade market are going to be fascinating.  While I don’t believe Aaron Rodgers will leave Green Bay and I do believe Tom Brady is retired (I could be wrong on both accounts) think about this list of current NFL QBs who could be somewhere new next season; Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock.  Not all of these guys will end up somewhere else but some of them will.

            Like I said, this draft doesn’t offer much at QB and if I were picking, I wouldn’t draft any of the QBs in this draft any higher than the last few picks of the first round and even that feels like a stretch.  Obviously, guys will go higher than that as teams will talk themselves into some of these guys.  It already started with some of the evaluations from the Senior Bowl.  There were some rave reviews of Malik Willis and even some of Kenny Pickett but I can’t for the life of me see what they were seeing.  These two, along with all the other QBs at the Senior Bowl, only proved they were exactly what we already knew they were, a flawed group of prospects.  Offensive line, defensive line, wide receiver and defensive back are the best groups in this draft and the first round will be full of those prospects.  With that said, here’s Mock Draft 2.0.

Round 1

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14): Ikem Ekwonu     OT     North Carolina St.

            Doug Pederson has come in as the head coach and while it seems like they may still hire some new front office personnel (Trent Baalke probably won’t be calling the shots for the draft) Pederson alone brings some clarity.  Pederson coached the Eagles to a Super Bowl and his offensive line featured Jason Peters and Lane Johnson at OT, Pederson also played QB in the league so he knows the value of good offensive line play.  Even Neal will give Ekwonu a run for this spot but I think Ekwonu comes out on top.  The team has to build an offense around Trevor Lawrence and they have a decent start at the skill positions.  The free agency market is going to be filled with WR so they can spend their cap space there and grab Ekwonu to be the anchor at LT for this line.  He shouldn’t be their only addition to the offensive line, just the biggest.  Ekwonu is a run blocking beast and he’ll make James Robinson and Travis Etienne more valuable and he’s fine as a pass blocker.  He needs some refinement there but he also brings the type of attitude you want on the offensive line, he’s nasty in the trenches.

2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1):  Aidan Hutchinson     DE     Michigan

            Hutchinson is the picture of consistency.  He never takes a play off and he never backs down.  He sounds like exactly what Dan Campbell wants on his roster and exactly what the Lions defense needs.  I said before that Hutchinson is somewhere between a Bosa brother and a Watt brother.  What I mean is he doesn’t bend like a Bosa brother around the edge but he’s not as powerful as JJ Watt.  He’s not TJ Watt either, he isn’t lining up as a standup 3-4 OLB, he doesn’t possess that kind of speed. What he does have is the same mentality of those guys, relentless.  He is an athlete but he doesn’t have the agility or the speed of a guy like Chase Young.  He uses his hands and his intelligence to set up his opponents to beat them.  He’ll be a great complement opposite Romeo Okwara and a tone setter on that defense.

3. Houston Texans (4-13):  Kayvon Thibodeaux     DE     Oregon

            Just when you think the Texans can’t be a bigger shitshow they fire David Culley after one year, want to hire Brian Flores as head coach only to see him sue the NFL, seriously consider hiring Josh McCown, a guy who has never coached above the high school level and then eventually settle on Culley’s defensive coordinator Lovie Smith.  It’s the most inexplicable NFL story since the movie Draft Day except this one actually happened.  Smith is a defensive coach so I’m thinking they go defense but when you look at the roster, they could draft literally any position.  Davis Mills looked good enough at the end of last year to fend off this draft class and give himself one more year, assuming the team finally trades Deshaun Watson.  Thibodeaux came into the year as the favorite to go first overall, he didn’t play well enough to lock down that spot but he’s still in the consideration for it.  He’s the opposite of Hutchinson, he’s an agile, bendy, speed rusher off the edge who plays low to the ground and gets the corner when he wants.  He’s not the power guy but I think Lovie Smith will find ways to use him and the Texans certainly need more pass rush, along with everything else. 

4. New York Jets (4-13): Derek Stingley Jr.     CB     LSU

            There’s going to be some teams talking themselves out of Derek Stingley and there are going to be some media narratives talking about Stingley’s last two years not living up to his freshman year at LSU.  What they miss is LSU was a mess the last two years, he had some injuries and he’s still the most talented CB in the draft.  I love Ahmad Gardner as much as anyone but stop overanalyzing Stingley, just watch him play.  He’s got size, athleticism, length, and instincts you can’t teach.  He was born to be a CB and the man is glue when it comes to coverage.  The Jets secondary is awful, if they drafted two CBs and two safeties in this draft, I wouldn’t blame them, Bryce Hall might be the only guy I would want to hold onto in their secondary (I’m not paying Marcus Maye what he wants).  There is a chance they take Kyle Hamilton at safety, he’s a fantastic player, but CB is a more valuable position. 

5. New York Giants (4-13):  Evan Neal     OT     Alabama

            The new brain trust of GM Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll seem like they plan to give Daniel Jones one more shot to be the franchise QB.  If they really want him to have a legitimate chance, they have to improve up front.  They saw it work in Buffalo where they gave Josh Allen a good offensive line to work behind.  Andrew Thomas has been fine at LT and Neal can play multiple spots and would slot in nicely on the right side.  He’s a massive human at about 6’7 350 lbs.  He would improve the running lanes and the pass blocking.  I like the Giants plan of giving Jones one more year because unless they plan to trade their two first round picks for a veteran QB, there isn’t anyone they should be reaching for here.

6. Carolina Panthers (6-10):  Charles Cross     OT     Mississippi St.

            The Panthers’ owner David Tepper is going to make a move for a veteran QB because he wants to win now.  It might be Deshaun Watson, it might be Jimmy G but I don’t think he wants to wait for a rookie, especially with one from this class.  It won’t matter who lines up at QB if they don’t fix this line.  Cross is only 21 and so he still has some maturing to do but he’s an elite athlete with awesome pass blocking skills after playing in Mississippi St.’s pass happy offense.  He can lock down the LT spot for the next decade for whomever the Panthers get to be their QB.  Matt Rhule needs to win this next season or he’ll be looking for a nice college job to land at after being just another guy who couldn’t pull off the transition to the NFL from college.  If they don’t fix the line, they won’t get any better. 

7. New York Giants (from Chicago):  Kyle Hamilton     S     Notre Dame

            Safety may not seem like a position towards the top of the Giants’ list of needs but Hamilton is such a good prosect he’s too good to pass up.  Also, while Xavier McKinney looked really good last season, Jabrill Peppers is coming off an ACL tear and Logan Ryan is on the wrong side of 30.  Hamilton would be a nice chess piece for new defensive coordinator Don Martindale who is coming over from Baltimore.  One thing Baltimore almost always has is a good secondary, Hamilton would make the Giants very good on the back end.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Jermaine Johnson     DE     Florida St.

            This is my first massive change from Mock Draft 1.0.  I’ll admit, I hadn’t seen as much of Johnson as others but I have now and he jumps off the screen.  He’s the one guy who really stood out at the Senior Bowl and when you watch him at Florida St it’s really easy to love him.  The thing that really set him apart at Florida St was that he was “the guy” and he had very little help from the rest of that defense and he still dominated.  He’s every bit of an elite athlete and yet he also has many moves to beat his opponent.  Compared to a guy like David Ojabo, who I also like, he’s just far more skilled.  Johnson is the more refined pass rusher, the better run defender (and it’s not close), and he didn’t have the advantage of playing opposite Aidan Hutchinson.  The Falcons had 17 sacks on the year…as a team.  There were two individual players (TJ Watt and Robert Quinn) who had more.  The Falcons’ secondary isn’t great but it’s hard to be great if your team never gets to the QB.  Johnson is my big mover, partly because he had a great Senior Bowl and partly because I should have had him higher to begin with.

9. Denver Broncos (7-10):  Travon Walker    DL     Georgia

            This is back-to-back major changes.  I didn’t have Walker in my first mock draft and that was perhaps a major oversight.  Walker gets lost a bit amongst the Georgia defenders in this draft.  Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt are more well-known defensive line guys from Georgia along with a guy like LB Nakobe Dean.  Walker should actually translate to the NFL quite well and he’s a three-down player and can play in multiple fronts.  The Broncos need some youth and some more help on the edge and Walker brings both.  He can help with the pass rush but he’s also a solid run defender, something the Broncos struggled with last season.  He isn’t the twitchiest edge rusher but he would give them someone who can line up anywhere on the line and take some pressure off of Bradley Chubb.  It is completely possible that the Broncos take a QB here but it’s probably more likely they trade this pick for a QB if a high-level veteran is available to them.  If they trade for a guy like Carson Wentz or Jimmy G, they probably hang on to this pick and I like Walker here.    

10. New York Jets (from Seattle):  David Ojabo     DE     Michigan

            Even if Carl Lawson returns from his knee injury and is an effective pass rusher for the Jets, they still need more pass rush.  It won’t do them any good to improve their secondary with Derek Stingley Jr. if they can’t get to the QB.  Ojabo is still pretty raw overall but he’s an impressive athlete with elite speed off the edge.  Robert Saleh built his San Francisco defenses off his front four and he will find ways to use Ojabo’s pass rushing skills until he develops the rest of his skills.

11. Washington Commanders (7-10):  Malik Willis     QB     Liberty

            The Commanders (that’s going to take some getting used to) have a number of needs but nothing as important as QB.  I think Ron Rivera is fine still using Taylor Heinicke if he needs to next season and that gives them some leeway with Willis. Willis has great athleticism and a rocket for an arm but he’s underdeveloped with his reads and progressions and he’s only 6’0 tall.  I’m not a fan of his given how much work he needs and I’m just not sure he ever gets there.  That said, the Commanders grab the lottery ticket here and hope for the best.  Willis has an arm like Josh Allen and legs like Lamar Jackson but he’s about as developed as Trey Lance and he’s Drew Brees’ height.  It’s a combination that could lead to a legendary career or a quick flameout.  The Commanders aren’t primed to be great next season necessarily so they have a little time to give Willis to become something. 

12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9):  Ahmad Gardner     CB     Cincinnati

            The Vikings have a new coach in Kevin O’Connell but they still have the same problems on defense.  They need a pass rusher to either complement or replace Danielle Hunter, they need some youth at LB and they need a top-notch CB.  Gardner is an athletic guy who was rarely challenged last year at Cincinnati as teams stayed away from his side of the field, wise decision.  He has great measurables and he’s a guy who turned himself into an elite player after being a lightly recruited kid out of high school.  Gardner could give Stingley a run for his money as the top CB in this draft if Stingley doesn’t have a great combine or has some struggles in his workouts.  He can be an elite CB in the NFL and the Vikings sorely need one of those, he’s also a more valuable prospect than the LBs here or the edge rushers left at this point. 

13. Cleveland Browns (8-9):  Devin Lloyd     LB     Utah

            The Browns have to decide what to do with Baker Mayfield, this team is poised to win now but they need a better QB.  There are a lot of potentially available veterans and the Browns should get one of them, drafting a guy like Kenny Pickett just seems pointless.  They also need to address WR but that is one of the more stacked positions in free agency and again, they want to win now.  On defense they have needs at DT with Malik McDowell getting arrested and Malik Jackson not getting any younger.  They also have needs at LB because they have multiple free agents.  Devin Lloyd is arguably the best prospect left on the board and he’s a three-down LB.  He has gotten better every year and he should be a great pro.  He’s also versatile enough that they could use him at whatever position they need given the rest of the depth chart at LB. 

14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9):  Trevor Penning     OT     Northern Iowa

            The Ravens were abysmal on the offensive line last season largely because they had no answers at OT when Ronnie Stanley got hurt.  They didn’t have any depth and having to move Alejandro Villanueva from RT to LT to fill in for Stanley was a disaster.  The line needs revamping overall especially considering they could lose center Bradley Bozeman.  With that said, the OT position has to be addressed even if Stanley gets healthy and returns to form.  Penning comes from a small school but he has elite tackle size and he would be a massive upgrade for the Ravens.  If you doubt a guy from UNI can start his rookie year in the NFL, just look at Buffalo.  They drafted Spencer Brown last season from the same UNI team and he started at RT for them.  Penning was the reason Brown played RT in college; Penning had the left side locked down.  Penning will have to slide to RT unless Stanley is injured again, the good news is that if Stanley does get hurt again, there is no way Penning will be as bad at LT as Villanueva was last season.    

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami):  Tyler Linderbaum     C     Iowa

            The Eagles have always believed in having a good offensive line and if they don’t trade away these first-round picks to get a QB, I would expect they replenish a bit up front.  OG Brandon Brooks retired and C Jason Kelce is a free agent who will turn 35 next season.  Tyler Linderbaum is the best interior lineman in this draft and he could go much higher than this.  The only things dropping him this far are that he’s an undersized player who doesn’t fit every scheme and centers generally aren’t valued like OTs.  Linderbaum is every bit the prospect the top three OTs are his position just doesn’t rate as highly.  The Eagles are used to having an undersized center as Kelce has excelled as a guy under 300 lbs. who just understands how to win.  Linderbaum understands how to win inside.  The Eagles do have Landon Dickerson, who could slide to center from LG but he was so good at LG it’s worth taking Linderbaum so Dickerson can just stay there.  With Brooks retired it also doesn’t preclude the team from bringing back Kelce if he wants to play and letting Linderbaum get his feet wet playing RG next to him. 

16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis):  George Karlaftis     DE     Purdue

            The Eagles have issues to deal with at DE.  Derek Barnett is a free agent to be they shouldn’t overpay to keep, Brandon Graham is an aging vet who’s also a free agent to be, and Ryan Kerrigan is just an aging player.  That leaves Josh Sweat sort of on his own.  Karlaftis isn’t twitchy and he isn’t beating anyone off the edge with speed but he has great power.  He’s solid as a rock and that’s something the Eagles could use up front.  Again, this team could use this pick to get a veteran QB if they want to upgrade from Jalen Hurts (BTW, they should upgrade from Jalen Hurts). 

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8):  Jordan Davis     DT     Georgia

            This isn’t the sexiest pick in the draft and Davis is likely only a two-down player in the NFL (although that narrative may be a bit overblown).  Davis is a massive run-stopping force in the middle of the line at 6’6 340 lbs.  He’s he immovable object you park in the middle of the defense and he lets other guys make plays.  The Chargers have three major free agents at DT; Linval Joseph, Christian Covington, and Justin Jones, that’s pretty much all the size they have.  They were terrible against the run last year even with those guys, now it’s time to get a truly gifted run stuffer for their defense.  They could use a RT since Bryan Bulaga seems to be hurt a lot and if they lose Mike Williams in free agency, they will need another WR.  However, Brandon Staley is a pretty smart defensive coach and he knows his defense needs to be better against the run. 

18. New Orleans Saints (9-8):  Kenny Pickett     QB     Pittsburgh

            The Saints have the league’s worst salary cap situation, there head coach decided it was time to semi-retire, they can’t afford to re-sign their top offensive lineman (LT Terron Armstead), they may have to trade their best offensive weapon (RB Alvin Kamara), their top WR makes a ton of money and didn’t play last season, and the best QB on their roster might be Ian Book.  If there was ever a team that needs a reset, it’s New Orleans.  The problem is Dennis Allen is taking over as head coach and this defense could still be really good.  Pickett would give this team a guy who can step in right away, he is 24 years old already.  He also would be a cheap asset at QB.  He might be the only QB in the draft ready to step in on day one and start.  The Saints will have to do some teardown to the roster because of their harsh salary cap reality and it probably takes them out of any chance to bring in a veteran like Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson.  Pickett gives them the best chance of turning it around quickly and not being terrible while they do it.  He’s a solid QB prospect who can run the offense and make some plays. 

19. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8):  Daxton Hill     DB     Michigan

            The Eagles’ secondary is also in flux.  Both starting safeties (Rodney McLeod, Anthony Harris) are free agents as is starting CB Steven Nelson.  They might re-sign Nelson but they should upgrade the safety spot.  Hill is a bit undersized but he’s a playmaker and he can line up as the slot corner which makes him very valuable.  He should test really well at the combine and he’s the type of new blood they need. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1):  Kenyon Green     OL     Texas A&M

            The Steelers are another team that will be looking for a veteran QB because they are set up to win right away.  The offense needs some help up front but they do have RB Najee Harris, WR Diontae Johnson, WR Chase Claypool, and TE Pat Freiermuth.  I could see this as a team that takes a chance on a guy like Carson Wentz.  The offensive line needs help for sure.  Kenyon Green has played everywhere on the line except center and would be a huge help on the inside.  He could steal the RT job if they don’t find someone else but he has Pro Bowl potential inside at guard.  Najee Harris would find his job at RB a whole lot easier if Green was opening holes for him. 

21. New England Patriots (10-7):  Treylon Burks     WR     Arkansas

            The Patriots have a terrible track record of taking WRs in the early rounds so this pick is a bit scary.  However, Burks is a different breed of WR and his combination of size, skill, speed and power are perfect for today’s game.  He is everything they thought N’Keal Harry would be.  Burks can be an even bigger version of AJ Brown.  He would complement Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers, which is exactly what the Patriots need.  Mac Jones would know how to get the best out of him.  This team needs some help on the defensive side, especially at LB.  Nakobe Dean is a guy the Patriots should consider but he’s really not Belichick’s style.

22. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7):  Garrett Wilson     WR     Ohio St.

            The Raiders have a new coach in Josh McDaniels and he spent years with the Patriots and Wilson is a very Patriots-like WR prospect.  The Raiders should hope McDaniels has better luck picking WR than the Patriots have had early in the draft.  Wilson isn’t physically imposing at 6’0 and under 200 lbs. but he’s a skilled receiver nonetheless.  He beats teams with his run after the catch ability and he can play inside or out.  With Hunter Renfrow as the slot guy, and Bryan Edwards as the big, physical WR, Wilson can fill the other role of the guy who gets moved all over the formation to create matchups.  The team doesn’t have much beyond Renfrow and Edwards at the position so he fills a huge need. 

23. Arizona Cardinals (11-6):  Trent McDuffie     CB     Washington

            The Cardinals could be a franchise in peril if the Kyler Murray situation goes bad.  I’m not a huge Murray fan but this franchise spent the #1 pick in the draft on Murray one year after taking another QB in the top 10, then hired a coach specifically to coach Murray.  Now Murray seems upset for some reason and it could all fall apart; it would be the most Cardinals’ thing to ever happen.  Barring them needing this pick to get another QB, they go with a CB.  They need help in the secondary and McDuffie is going to be a late riser in the draft process.  He’s an excellent cover guy and the Cardinals have had good luck with Washington defensive backs (Budda Baker, Byron Murphy).  McDuffie can play in any defense and he will fit any scheme they decide to play. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Zion Johnson     OG     Boston College

            As flashy as the Cowboys are they haven’t shied away from taking linemen in the first round of the draft, including interior offensive linemen like Travis Frederick and Zack Martin.  They need to re-establish themselves on the offensive line and Johnson could step right in at LG and replace Connor Williams who will be a free agent.  Johnson is an immediate starter and an upgrade inside.  He could also potentially move to center and with Tyler Biadasz’s less than stellar play there, they may want the option.  The team definitely needs to address the defensive line and the safety position but there should be depth at those positions and they can find some help later.  One position I would watch out for here is WR.  Michael Gallup is a free agent they probably can’t afford to re-sign and Amari Cooper may end up getting traded.  That would take what was a strength on the team and turn it into CeeDee Lamb or bust position. 

25. Buffalo Bills (11-6):  Andrew Booth Jr.     CB     Clemson

            The Bills were arguably the best team in the NFL by the end of the season and if it hadn’t been for Patrick Mahomes’ ridiculous 13 second drive and an unfortunate coin flip, they may have had the chance to prove it.  One thing that really hurt them late in the year was the knee injury to Tre’Davious White, their best CB.  Levi Wallace wasn’t good enough to step into the #1 role and he’s a free agent this off season.  The Bills need reinforcements at CB and Booth is an elite level athlete.  He’s the aggressive sort but I think that will play in Buffalo just fine and gives the team a nice duo once White is healthy.  Booth is a better option at #1 while White is out and his addition doesn’t preclude them from re-signing Wallace, although they may not want to at his price.

26. Tennessee Titans (12-5):  Nakobe Dean      LB      Georgia

            The Titans could lose Rashaan Evans, Jayon Brown and Harold Landry at LB and if they are going to spend on one of them it will likely be OLB Landry.  That would leave them perilously thin at ILB and devoid of real playmakers there.  Dean is very undersized but he’s fast and he’s instinctive.  He is best chasing down run plays and his lack of size hurts him if offensive linemen get to him.  He can blitz from the interior and that would be a nice skill to add to the LB corps as their ILB have mostly been run stuffers.  Dean can also cover RBs out of the backfield so he can play all three downs.  The Titans have some holes to fill on the offensive line and maybe at CB.  They need a TE but there isn’t one worth a first-round pick so they go for value with Dean. 

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4):  Devonte Wyatt     DL     Georgia

            The Buccaneers pulled off some cap gymnastics last season to bring back the Super Bowl starting roster but the bill will come due and they can’t afford everyone again.  With Tom Brady moving on it’s time to make the roster a bit younger and they have some free agents on the defensive line they could replace with cheaper talent.  Ndamukong Suh, William Gholston and Steve McLendon are all free agents, they are 35, 30 and 36 respectively.  Wyatt had a great year on Georgia’s excellent defense and he has the size (6’3 315 lbs.) and the athleticism to excel in any scheme and he would look great lining up next to Vita Vea on Tampa’s line. 

28. Green Bay Packers (13-4):  Jameson Williams     WR     Alabama

            Devante Adams is a free agent but the Packers have no intentions of letting him leave but they are seriously over the cap so they have some decisions to make.  Guys like Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown are free agents too and Randall Cobb could be a cap casualty.  They need some receivers whether they hold on to Aaron Rodgers or not so Williams would be a good get.  He would probably go higher than this but he did tear his ACL in the National Championship game playing for Alabama so he won’t be able to work out at all.  Williams is a deep threat receive who broke out this season at Alabama but he only had the one year of production because he transferred there after sitting behind other stars at Ohio St.  It’s a risk to take him but one that is well worth it if he lives up to his talent level. 

29. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco):  Logan Hall      DL      Houston

            The Dolphins need help on the offensive line but there isn’t a lot of value left at this point unless they want a project like Bernhard Raimann or Daniel Faalele, they already have projects on the roster.  On the defensive line they could lose Emmanuel Ogbah and they need some depth.  Logan Hall isn’t one of the bigger names at d-line but he’s got elite size (6’6 275 lbs.) and he can play all three positions for the Dolphins’ defensive front.  He can bring pressure and set the edge against the run and he could be a starter by year two.  It’s not a flashy pick like a WR but it’s probably the better choice. 

30. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5):  Roger McCreary     CB     Auburn

            The Chiefs have some free agent issues in the secondary with CBs Charvarius Ward and Mike Hughes set for free agency along with safety Tyrann Mathieu.  If they spend money there it’s probably to re-sign Mathieu.  That leaves plenty of snaps to go around at CB and luckily for them McCreary is still here on the board.  McCreary is an elite athlete who has only gotten better every year at Auburn and really stepped up this season.  He has great hips, elite quickness and change of direction and fantastic ball skills. 

31. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7):  Bernhard Raimann     OT     Central Michigan

            Raimann is raw but that’s the only issue with him.  He’s only been playing offensive line a couple of years after coming to the states from Austria, starting out as a TE at Central Michigan and eventually transitioning to OT.  He was so good his last year he got an invite to the Senior Bowl and he excelled even against the best competition he’s seen.  He has his moments where the inexperience is evident but all the tools are there.  He’s a supreme athlete with great size and movement skills. The Bengals need talent on the offensive line and Raimann could be fantastic with the right coaching.  He should fit their scheme and he’ll be a starter pretty quickly. 

32. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams):  Matt Corral      QB     Ole Miss

            I’ve mentioned I don’t love the QBs in this draft but that doesn’t mean teams won’t take them.  The Lions pass on a QB early but grab one here late in round one because a 1^st round pick means you get the extra fifth year on the first contract if you want it.  Corral is a guy who can run some RPO offense and he can threaten with his legs when he needs to, however, he’s a highly accurate passer so he prefers to throw it.  He doesn’t have the strongest arm and he’s not the biggest guy but he makes plays and I think Dan Campbell will appreciate the fact he’s a bit scrappy.  He may need a little time to adjust to the NFL but the Lions aren’t competing for the Super Bowl next season.  They can let Jared Goff start the year and ease Corral into the game plan. 

            Generally, in a draft class NFL teams will divide players into multiple tiers.  The top tier is players who are elite at their position and it usually has anywhere from 8-12 players in it.  In a good year it might have more, in a tough year it might have less.  This year has nine by my count even though many people are discounting this draft as not great.  The reason the perception of this draft is down is because none of those nine elite players are QBs, RBs, or WRs, there isn’t even a TE to get excited about.  The best players in this draft are offensive linemen, defensive linemen, linebackers, a safety and a cornerback. The offensive side of the ball has plenty of solid prospects at WR and RB but they just aren’t any that really stand out.  The QB class has some projects but really only two with any real chance to start early in their careers.

            The nine elite players are (in no particular order); Alabama OT Evan Neal, North Carolina St. OT Ikem Ekwonu, Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum, Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson, Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Utah LB Devin Lloyd, Georgia LB Nakobe Dean, Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton and LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr. This doesn’t mean these guys will be the top nine picks, as a matter of fact I can guarantee they won’t be.  Positional needs and value will make team draft others instead.  Centers, linebackers and safeties are generally undervalued positions while QBs and OTs will be overvalued.  However, these nine players have an above average chance to be elite players at their positions.  One name I left off this list is Georgia DT Jordan Davis.  He’s an excellent player I’m just not as sold on him being an elite NFL player. 

            This is an interesting year for a number of reasons. There is no consensus top QB and there’s a chance a QB doesn’t even go in the top 10 (at least one will but no one should).  Kenny Pickett from Pitt and Matt Corral from Old Miss are the top guys but neither feels like a true franchise guy.  The top players are DEs Hutchinson and Thibodeaux but the Jaguars pick first and they may decide to draft an OT to fix their protection problem for franchise QB Trevor Lawrence.  Here’s my first stab at this year’s draft, I guarantee it will change by the time the actual draft rolls around.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14):  Ikem Ekwonu     OT     North Carolina St.

            I’m going to zag with this pick.  Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are the consensus top players but the Jaguars have to save Trevor Lawrence after a rookie year that went completely off the rails.  The line needs plenty of work and why not start at LT.  Ekwonu isn’t a household name and for many he’s not even the top OT prospect but I like him a little better than Evan Neal.  He doesn’t have elite length but after watching Rashawn Slater make a Pro Bowl in his rookie year with the Chargers, length may be overrated.  Ekwonu has elite skills and a nasty disposition and the Jaguars line could use a little of both.  In 2013 the draft was a bit similar to this one.  There were no elite QBs and at the end of the day the Chiefs took Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher.  Fisher isn’t a future Hall of Famer but he’s been a rock-solid starting LT for about a decade now (he starts for the Colts now).  I wouldn’t argue with Neal here either and Hutchinson or Thibodeaux would make a nice pair with Josh Allen on the d-line but I like Ekwonu to make a move up the draft board. 

2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1):  Aidan Hutchinson     DE     Michigan

            Okay, now I’ll get back on track with Detroit getting the guy from Michigan.  The Lions need a QB but there just isn’t one to take here.  Hutchinson was a beast all year (okay, not so much in the college playoff game), he’s a guy who has gotten better every season at Michigan and the Lions need help everywhere.  The defense struggled in so many ways but pass rushing was towards the top of the list.  Hutchinson can get to the QB and he’s an excellent all-around DE.  He’s somewhere between Nick Bosa and JJ Watt in terms of his skill set and that’s pretty high praise.  He will also be a tone-setter for the defense with his never-ending motor.  Dan Campbell will love having this guy around and he could raise the play of everyone on that defense. 

3. Houston Texans (4-13):  Kayvon Thibodeaux     DE     Oregon

            The Texans are in a major state of flux after firing head coach David Culley after one year, having no clue what to do with Deshaun Watson, and having rookie QB Davis Mills actually play well at the end of the season.  They shouldn’t be looking to draft a QB so they take the best player available and it just so happens he fills a massive need.  Jonathan Greenard showed some flashes of ability at DE this year but Thibodeaux can really bring the heat off the edge.  Adding him might actually help Greenard be even better because he would take some focus off of him.  This pick may be influenced by the head coach they hire but I would say it shouldn’t matter, Thibodeaux is an elite pass rushing prospect.  He’s not as big and physical as Hutchinson but he’s a superior athlete who is just scratching the surface of his ability.  I could make a case for S Kyle Hamilton or CB Derek Stingley Jr. but DE is a far more valuable position to fill here.

4. New York Jets (4-13):  Derek Stingley Jr.     CB     LSU

            The Jets defense was pretty bad this year and that’s understandable when you look at the personnel on that side of the ball.  They had virtually no pass rush and they only had seven interceptions on the year.  They hope Carl Lawson will return from injury next year and give them some pass rush but they don’t have an upgrade for the secondary coming off IR.  Stingley burst on to the scene three years ago as a freshman on LSU’s national championship team.  He was a standout then and while the last two seasons were a mess at LSU overall, he’s still really good.  He’s big and has the size and athleticism every team wants in a #1 CB.  He steps in as an immediate starter and improves the secondary from day one.  I can make a case for Kyle Hamilton or Evan Neal but a #1 CB is hard to find and the Jets have another first round pick in this draft to address other needs.   

5. New York Giants (4-13):  Kenny Pickett     QB     Pittsburgh

            The Giants will have a new GM, a new head coach and I’m assuming a new QB.  If they don’t make a trade for Russell Wilson (they do have two first-round picks) or some other veteran, Pickett could be their guy.  The Giants have to do something different because Daniel Jones isn’t the answer.  Surprisingly, Pickett is a little similar in style to Jones.  He’s got size and athleticism and he can be dangerous with his legs.  Pickett also comes from an offense at Pitt that had many pro concepts and he understands progression reads and reading defenses. He was a four-year starter so he has a lot of experience.  The one thing that might work against him for some teams is that he’s already 24 years old.  That might work in his favor with the Giants because I don’t think they want to wait around for some young guy to develop.  Pickett can play day one, he may never be a superstar, but he’s a solid starter. It may also be a good idea to snag him before Carolina picks sixth if they don’t have a new QB by draft day.

6. Carolina Panthers (5-12):  Evan Neal     OT     Alabama

            Owner David Tepper doesn’t seem like the type of guy to want a developmental QB and I think Carolina is the team most likely to go get a veteran.  That might mean giving up this pick to someone if they want Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson.  It doesn’t matter who lines up at QB if they don’t fix the offensive line.  If they still have this pick on draft day, they would be lucky to get Evan Neal here.  Neal is a massive human being at 6-7 360 lbs.  He has played multiple positions on the line at Alabama but he would slot in just fine at LT for the Panthers.  The Panthers need help at multiple positions on the line so this should just be a start for them addressing the position. 

7. New York Giants (from Chicago):  Devin Lloyd     LB     Utah

            If Dave Gettleman was still the GM of the Giants, I would have Tyler Linderbaum going here because Gettleman loved drafting linemen.  Since I’m not sure what direction the GM/Coach combo is going in New York just yet I’m giving them Lloyd.  He’s a multi-dimensional LB who can be used both inside or out.  They need ILB because Blake Martinez is coming off an injury and he’s contract will be coming due.  They don’t have a ton of depth inside, evidenced by the fact they used guys like Tae Crowder, Bernardrick McKinney and Reggie Ragland.  Lloyd would be a massive upgrade inside and he gives them someone to use as a blitzer when needed. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Kyle Hamilton     S      Notre Dame

            Safety probably isn’t the greatest need for the Falcons but TE wasn’t their greatest need last year either and they took Kyle Pitts.  They took Pitts because he was a once-in-a-generation talent and they may see Hamilton the same way.  He’s big safety at 6’4 220 lbs. but he plays the run and the pass equally well.  He can come up and fill a gap in the run game as easily as he drops back deep to cover the middle.  In a league where WRs and TEs are getting bigger and more athletic, Hamilton is the type of defender you want on your team.  He can line up as a SS, a FS or in a LB role depending on your needs.  DT Jordan Davis is also a strong possibility here as the team needs some size for their defensive line and Davis is a mountain of a man.

9. Denver Broncos (7-10):  Kenyon Green     OL     Texas A&M

            If the Panthers aren’t the most likely team to trade for a veteran QB than it’s the Broncos.  This offense is ready made for someone to step in and take advantage of all the weapons they have.  They don’t want to wait for a rookie to figure it out.  The only other position on offense where they need help is at RT.  The smartest thing the new head coach can do is convince Mike Munchak to stay on as offensive line coach, he’s done a wonderful job, especially with Garett Bolles.  They do have to replace Bobby Massie at RT and Kenyon Green has experience at both guard spots and both tackle spots.  He is a road grading run blocker and if they put him on the right side and run Javonte Williams behind him, that’s a winning combination in the running game.  Green gives you flexibility too, which is always nice.  It’s not the flashiest pick but whoever ends up as the new QB will appreciate the help up front. 

10. New York Jets (from Seattle): David Ojabo     DE     Michigan

            I seriously considered giving the Jets a second CB with their second top 10 pick but I talked myself out of it, it is not out of the question.  However, Robert Saleh built his 49ers defenses around his front four and he likes to get pressure from his defensive line.  Even if Carl Lawson comes back 100%, they need more help up front. Ojabo is raw, he is nowhere near ready to be a full-time starting DE in year one but he’ll be an excellent pass rushing specialist and Saleh could turn him into a nightmare for opponents in a couple of seasons.  He is a supreme athlete who is still young and developing his game along with filling out his body.  He has as high of a ceiling as any pass rusher in this draft, he just needs someone to show some patience.  Luckily for him, the Jets have time to wait. 

11. Washington Football Team (7-10):  Matt Corral     QB     Ole Miss

            Taylor Heinicke proved he’s a stop-gap at best. Corral is a guy who is even more athletic and his running ability is a real asset but he’s not just a running QB.  Corral has a good arm and while he’s not the biggest guy, he understands the game and can make all the throws.  I do worry a little bit about his delivery because it comes off his shoulder like a shotput and with him being less than ideal height it could mean batted balls in the NFL.  Phillip Rivers had a similar delivery but he was 6’5 not 6’1.  Corral’s demeanor will endear him to NFL coaches and front offices and he seems like a guy Ron Rivera will enjoy coaching.  Washington has plenty of needs but starting over a QB has to be priority one.  This team isn’t ready made to win quickly with a veteran QB so they should look to the draft. 

12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9):  George Karlaftis     DE     Purdue

            The Vikings are another team looking for a GM and coach and with Rick Spielman out after running things for so long and Mike Zimmer being there eight years, it could mean major changes to the roster.  They have decisions to make on Kirk Cousins (is he worth what they are paying him, *hint*-he’s not) and can they extend Danielle Hunter, they need his pass rush.  Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr and Patrick Peterson are aging defenders.  How much of a reset are they looking for?  George Karlaftis helps no matter what you’re doing.  He is a power rushing DE who would pair perfectly with Hunter or he could be a replacement.  The defense has to improve and Karlaftis would be a good start.  He’s not as flashy as some of the other DEs but he’s far more developed than a guy like David Ojabo.

13. Cleveland Browns (8-9):  Jameson Williams     WR     Alabama

            The Browns have Baker Mayfield on his fifth-year option if they stick with him (they should do everything they can to find a veteran upgrade).  Regardless of who lines up at QB, they need an upgrade at WR.  Jarvis Landry will be 30 and in the last year of his contract and he’s a possession guy.  Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins and Anthony Schwartz aren’t gamebreakers.  Odell Beckham never worked out as a big play guy in Cleveland so it’s time to get one.  Williams tore his ACL in the National Championship game but as long as there are no complications, he’s the best WR in this draft.  He’s a true deep threat with elite speed and while he’s a bit skinny, that’s what they said about DeVonta Smith and he worked out just fine.  Williams takes the top off the defense and is a real threat to score every time he touches the ball.  He would make Landry and the Browns’ TEs that much more dangerous underneath and take the safeties away from the line of scrimmage for the running game.  If they do draft him, they really should consider getting a QB who can actually throw it deep to him.

14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9):  Charles Cross     OT     Mississippi St.

            Ronnie Stanley has missed most of the last two seasons at LT and Alejandro Villanueva proved to be a poor substitute.  They don’t have a lot of depth at OT and Cross is a very good-looking young prospect. He needs some work but he has a very high ceiling.  Cross is also one of the best prospects on the board and Baltimore rarely reaches for a prospect.  Cross is big, athletic and agile and would really help this team moving forward.  C Bradley Bozeman is a free agent but the team should have plenty of cap space to bring him back but if they don’t, this would be a prime landing spot for Tyler Linderbaum.  The Ravens know they have to protect Lamar Jackson better but if they don’t like any of the o-line options here, DT Jordan Davis would make for a really good replacement for an aging Brandon Williams at NT. 

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami):  Andrew Booth Jr.     CB     Clemson

            The Eagles got a solid year out of Darius Slay but he’s 31 and they are tempting fate.  Avonte Maddox is a nice slot corner but they need some help outside.  Their secondary isn’t great as both safeties are aging but there isn’t a great safety prospect after Kyle Hamilton.  Booth had a very good year for Clemson and really moved up the draft boards ahead of everyone but Stingley.  He would be excellent value here and this would be a nice start to a busy first round for the Eagles, they have three picks (all within a five-pick group) assuming they don’t deal them for a different QB or to move up for a guy like Stingley or Hamilton. 

16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis):  Tyler Linderbaum     C     Iowa

            Yes, the Eagles still have Jason Kelce and he’s still a great center but he’s going to be 35 next season and he can’t play forever.  They also drafted Landon Dickerson last year and he can play center, sure, but he excelled at LG this year and could just stay there.  Linderbaum could take over the RG spot until Kelce retires and then slide right in.  It would be very much like the Eagles to draft a guy a year early as opposed to waiting until Kelce actually calls it quits (assuming he doesn’t retire after this season, no reason to think he would).  Linderbaum is a star player on the inside and he only falls this far because teams generally don’t value centers that highly.  The Eagles have three first-round picks so they can address needs and take value to really improve their team.  Linderbaum uses great leverage (he has a wrestling background) and has great athleticism and movement skills inside.  He’s not the biggest center you can find but then again, neither is Jason Kelce.

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8):  Jordan Davis     DT     Georgia

            Davis would be a bit of a steal here considering how talented he is.  He would fit wonderfully in the Chargers front and with Linval Joseph’s contract expiring and him turning 34 this year, it’s probably time to move on.  Davis is a massive man and would really help keep their LBs clean as he can command a double team on the line.  The Chargers use multiple fronts because of the versatility of Joey Bosa and Davis can play in any scheme.  He’s a power rusher on passing downs and an immovable object against the run.  The only concern with him is his conditioning and his weight.  He’s 6’6 340 lbs. but he needs to maintain that size to retain his athleticism. 

18. New Orleans Saints (9-8):  Ahmad Gardner     CB     Cincinnati

            If the Saints don’t make a move for a QB like Russell Wilson I could see Sean Payton pulling the trigger on a guy like Sam Howell.  Howell has a little Drew Brees in his game and Payton can work with that.  The Saints QB situation is weird with Payton’s love for Taysom Hill yet it’s fairly obvious to everyone else Hill isn’t a full-time QB.  The team can’t go into the season with Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Simien and Ian Book as their only options under center.  I think they find a veteran, even if it’s Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield.  That means addressing either WR or CB and I really like Gardner.  He was not a big recruit but he built himself into a top-shelf CB.  He has great length and athleticism and the kid doesn’t back down from any challenge. The team needs an upgrade opposite Marshon Lattimore and Gardner should be that guy. 

19. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8):  DeMarvin Leal     DT     Texas A&M

            The Eagles have always prioritized their lines and here they do it again.  Fletcher Cox is still a productive player but he’ll be 32 this year, he’s made a ton of money and there’s no telling how long he wants to play.  Leal is an athletic disruptor on the line who can play any position.  The team needs some help on the edge with Brandon Graham aging and Derek Barnett not living up to his draft billing.  Leal helps everywhere and he can be the long-term replacement for Cox on the inside. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1):  Nicholas Petit-Frere     OT     Ohio St.

            Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is retiring and no they don’t have a replacement on the roster but this team doesn’t want a rookie QB.  This is definitely the wrong year to be looking for a starting QB in the draft and it’s really rough when you’re picking 20^th.  I don’t see the Steelers getting Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson but I think they are far more likely to take a shot on a young veteran like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or maybe Gardner Minshew.  I don’t see them starting over with Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis or Sam Howell.  Best case scenario might be trading for Derek Carr.  Whoever lines up at QB would certainly benefit from the Steelers helping out their offensive line.  Nicholas Petit-Frere may not have the upside of Ekwonu, Neal or even Charles Cross but he could be a starting LT for the next decade.  He has a great athletic profile and started at both RT and LT at Ohio St.  He can win the LT job in Pittsburgh as a rookie. 

21. New England Patriots (10-7):  Treylon Burks     WR     Arkansas

            This would be one of my two dream picks for the Patriots.  Burks can actually be what N’Keal Harry was supposed to be, a big, physical WR who wins jump balls and is actually useful.  It would also mean the Patriots might cut bait on Nelson Agholor after one year and Harry would certainly be gone.  I would really like the Patriots to take Nakobe Dean at LB but he simply doesn’t fit Belichick’s LB profile.  Belichick likes big, power LBs and Dean is decidedly undersized.  He’s a fantastic LB and would be a great replacement for Dont’a Hightower but I just can’t see it happening.  I would also be fine with a CB to replace Jalen Mills, who is absolutely awful or even a LT who can stay healthy, but I love Burks. He is my favorite WR in this draft.    

22. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7):  Roger McCreary     CB     Auburn

            Another team in a state of flux.  Gruden is out, Mike Mayock is out and Rich Bisaccia is probably out.  Derek Carr could be on his way out but it doesn’t feel like this team is looking for a rookie QB.  Their defense was better this year but they were still rolling out guys like Brandon Facyson, Nate Hobbs and Desmond Trufant’s corpse behind Casey Hayward at CB.  McCreary isn’t a name everyone knows but he’s an excellent CB prospect and could end up being one of the better secondary players in this draft.  He’s got good size, he’s a good athlete and he made plenty of plays at Auburn.  This team could look for a WR replacement with Henry Ruggs heading to prison but there will be value at WR later in the draft. 

23. Arizona Cardinals (11-6):  Kaiir Elam     CB     Florida

            The Cardinals certainly surprised me this season and after almost winning their division they want to continue to compete.  Vance Joseph has done a wonderful job with the defense but he could use someone with a little more size at CB.  Elam is a good athlete with great size at 6’2 and while he’s best at zone press man coverage Joseph uses a combination of coverages and I think Elam can fit in nicely.  The Cardinals could look to get some youth on the offensive line but Elam is probably better value at this point. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Jaquan Brisker     S     Penn St.

            Dan Quinn has done a miraculous job with the Cowboys defense especially considering the new guys he brought in, especially in the secondary.  The problem at safety is they have almost no one signed for next year.  Damontae Kazee, Malik Hooker, and Jayron Kearse are all free agents to be.  Brisker is a jack-of-all-trades safety, he can play strong or free and do both well.  He’s an elite athlete who might just be scratching the surface of his talent at safety.  Quinn may move on to be a head coach somewhere next year and the Cowboys need to improve their talent for the next guy, he might not be as good of a defensive coach as Quinn. 

25. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco):  Trevor Penning     OT     Northern Iowa

            The Dolphins will have a new coach but the same GM.  Chris Grier has repeatedly tried to improve the offensive line and he’s going to just keep drafting guys until he gets it right.  Penning is a small school prospect out of Northern Iowa but maybe he’ll have better luck than guys like Austin Jackson or Liam Eichenberg at locking down the LT job.  Penning might be better off on the right side but at least he gives them more options.  He’s tall, lengthy guy with solid movement skills but he is a bit stiff.  The Dolphins could do worse, as a matter of fact, that’s what they’ve been doing for several years now on the line.   

26. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7):  Nakobe Dean     LB     Georgia

            The Bengals need to invest in their offensive line but the value of Dean is far too great at this point.  They don’t have a lot invested in their LB corps and after improving their defensive line and the secondary in free agency this would give them a playmaker at that level.  Dean is undersized but he plays like his hair is on fire and makes big plays in big moments.  He wouldn’t have to step in immediately but there would be plenty of snaps for him to get on the field and make the Bengals defense a little bit better.  Clearly, the Bengals need to get some offensive line help but if Dean is available, the line can wait until the next round.

27. Buffalo Bills (11-6):  Garrett Wilson     WR     Ohio St.

            The Bills could use some help on the interior of the offensive line but Garrett Wilson offers way too much value to pass up here.  Emmanuel Sanders will be 35 this year and Cole Beasley will be 33.  While Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie have flashed the potential to be the next guys up, Wilson could be a level up.  There are other WRs to like; Chris Olave, Drake London, and Jahan Dotson are all possibilities here. 

28. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams):  Drake London     WR     USC

            The Lions could look to grab a QB here like Desmond Ridder or Malik Willis but I don’t think their rebuild plan would have them reaching for someone like those guys at this point.  Better to build out the roster with better players and find the QB later.  They struck gold with Amon-Ra St. Brown out of USC last year and here they go back to the well.  London is a completely different type of WR.  St. Brown is a technician who wins with his intelligence and route-running, London is a smart football player but he’s also a huge WR.  At 6’5 210 lbs. he uses his big frame and huge hands to be a master at the contested catch.  He has great body control and he would be an excellent complement to St. Brown and Kalif Raymond, two smaller receivers.  The only big-bodied guy they have is Josh Reynolds and they picked him up off the streets last season to fill a hole.  London would make a nice red zone target and maybe pull a little coverage away from TJ Hockenson. 

29. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5):  Chris Olave     WR     Ohio St.

            It seems strange to think the Chiefs need help in the passing game but after Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce there isn’t much proven depth. Mecole Hardman hasn’t proven to be a reliable player and while a guy like Byron Pringle is serviceable, he’s not a game breaker. Olave has years of experience, he’s an amazing route-runner and he’s a better technician than Hardman, Pringle or anyone not named Hill on the Chiefs.  Olave is a master at getting separation and if there is any QB in the NFL who can take advantage of that, it’s Patrick Mahomes. 

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4):  Jahan Dotson     WR     Penn St.

            How quickly things can change for a franchise.  The Buccaneers were stacked at WR just a few weeks ago and now Antonio Brown threw his career away and Chris Godwin had a season ending injury and will be a free agent.  The only sure thing left is Mike Evans.  Tyler Johnson is a nice player but he’s a possession guy, they need a playmaker.  Enter Dotson.  Dotson might have been even better at Penn St. if he had been playing with an elite QB like the guys at Ohio St. were.  He can play on the boundary and get deep but he has plenty of receiving skills to be used wherever they need him. 

31. Tennessee Titans (12-5):  Trent McDuffie     CB     Washington

            The Titans could either look to replace an aging veteran CB, Janoris Jenkins, or an aging OG Roger Saffold.  The CB position is harder to fill later in the draft so they will look to an interior offensive lineman later.  Last year, the Titans drafted Elijah Molden at CB out of Washington so they should have some familiarity with McDuffie.  Molden is a slot guy while McDuffie would be slated to play outside (although he has the ability to play inside or outside).  Jenkins is expensive and will be 34 next year, it’s time to move on from the veteran. 

32. Green Bay Packers (13-4):  Jermaine Johnson     OLB     Florida St.

            There’s a real possibility that Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus are not on the Packers next year leaving Rashan Gary pretty lonely at OLB.  Johnson played last season at Florida St after transferring from Georgia where he was a featured defender instead of a rotational player.  He excelled at Florida St. even if no one really noticed because the Seminoles were not very good.  He has versatility to line up standing up or down on the line but either way, he should be rushing the passer most of the time.  He is a very good run defender also, he’s not a one-dimensional player.  He would be a great addition to the Packers defense, especially if they lose some of their edge defenders. 

MVP

Contenders: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson

Sleeper: Matthew Stafford

            These guys all have one thing in common, they are all QBs.  Let’s face it, QBs win the MVP award more often than not.  It’s unfair and it’s also unavoidable.  The QB is the most important position in professional sports.  Derrick Henry ran for over 2000 yards last season and didn’t garner a single MVP vote.  This isn’t about how valuable a player is, it’s about how valuable the voters perceive him to be. 

            Rodgers won the award in a landslide last year and he’ll be damn good this year too.  However, it’s hard to win it twice in a row because you’re not just competing against the league, you are competing against yourself from last year.  Mahomes has won recently too and will be competing against himself a bit too.  Brady won’t put up the stats to really get into the conversation but after winning his seventh Super Bowl, people will be talking about him.  Russell Wilson has never received a single MVP vote, still a crazy stat, but he could win it any time.  Stafford is finally on a team with real talent and playing for a coach who knows offense.  He’s a legitimate threat if the Rams can win the NFC West.  Allen feels like the favorite.  He broke out last season, finished a distant second to Rodgers but his team is ready to take the next step and he is ready to lead them there. 

My Pick: Josh Allen. Too many things line up this year for him.  An offense that counts on him but gives him great playmakers like Stefon Diggs.  A defense that should help his team be even better.  And he will make plays that will wow everyone and make the highlight reels every week. 

Offensive Player of the Year

Contenders: All the QBs above minus Brady (he won’t have the stats).  RB Derrick Henry, RB Dalvin Cook, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Davante Adams, WR Tyreek Hill

Sleeper: RB Jonathan Taylor

            This award usually goes to the best non-QB offensive player since the MVP award usually goes to the best QB.  I know, it’s weird, but what are you going to do.  The QBs have to have amazing years, like 5000 yards and 50 TD level seasons, to win this award.  Henry, Cook and Kamara are fantastic offensive players.  Henry is a freak and just run over and through everyone.  Cook is a fantastic all-around runner going inside, outside and every way he needs to go to gain yards. Kamara is the runner/receiver threat that keeps defensive coaches up at night.  He’s going to be an even bigger part of the Saints offense with Drew Brees retired.  Adams and Hill are the two most explosive receivers in the game.  I would add DeAndre Hopkins but I just don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray.  Jonathan Taylor is one of the most talented RBs I’ve ever seen and I watched him for far too many years at Wisconsin.  If he gets 300 carries this year, he could lead the league in rushing.  The only thing that might stop him is the fact the Colts have Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines to steal some of his touches. 

My Pick: Dalvin Cook.  Mike Zimmer is going to ride Cook as far as he will take the Vikings.  My only concern is Cook gets beat up.  He carries the ball and runs as hard as Derrick Henry but he looks half Henry’s size.  If Cook holds up, he wins the award. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Contenders: DL Aaron Donald, DE Myles Garrett, DE Nick Bosa, LB Darius Leonard, CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Chase Young, OLB TJ Watt

Sleeper: OLB Matt Judon

            I dismissed Aaron Donald too quickly last year as he won the award again.  I do think TJ Watt had a case and Donald won it because the Rams had the #1 defense.  We will see if Donald can do it again.  His teammate Jalen Ramsey is still the best CB in the league so he’ll be up for this award too.  I still think Myles Garrett will win it at some point but the Browns have to win something and be a better overall defense for him to get noticed.  Watt will be back in the thick of the race this year but he’s going to face a tougher time with only Alex Highsmith taking focus on the other side of him. Chase Young was as good as advertised last year winning defensive rookie of the year and now the DPOY award is on his radar.  Washington’s defense is good enough to get him noticed too.  Bosa is coming back from injury but if he regains his pre-injury form, he’ll be right there for this award too.  Leonard is a tackling machine and I like to include a traditional LB.  Matt Judon was always a good OLB for the Ravens but now he plays for Bill Belichick.  There is no player better suited for Belichick’s defense than the multi-faceted Judon, he can be a star. 

My Pick: Chase Young.  The Washington defense is going to be fantastic and Young could have 18-20 sacks this year and I won’t be the least bit surprised.  I’m pulling for Judon but Young feels like the right choice. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: RB Najee Harris, QB Trevor Lawrence, QB Zack Wilson, QB Mac Jones, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Davonta Smith, TE Kyle Pitts, WR Ja’Marr Chase

Sleeper: RB Javonte Williams

            I’m not including Justin Fields or Trey Lance because they aren’t set to be the starters right away.  That doesn’t disqualify them but there are a lot of guys to talk about here so I have to trim the list.  Najee Harris is the most likely candidate.  He’s going to get the most use out of any rookie and his team is counting on him to be great.  Lawrence and Wilson are guys who should put up some stats because they will be on bad teams losing most of the time.  Mac Jones is the starting QB on what should be a really good team.  That could help him if the Patriots are really good.  Waddle could arguably be the top target on his team and so could Smith.  Both those WRs are going to put up good numbers.  Kyle Pitts has a chance to be outstanding and he has a good QB throwing to him.  Chase has not looked good in the preseason but he could flip a switch at any moment.  He will be sharing the ball with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd so that could depress his output.  Javonte Williams isn’t the starting RB in Denver…yet.  That guy is simply too good to keep off the field.

My Pick: I’m going to pick Harris.  The Steelers need him too much and will be relying on him a lot.  I really, really want to pick Javonte Williams, he could be special. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: LB Jamin Davis, DE Kwity Paye, LB Micah Parsons, CB Patrick Surtain II, CB Jaycee Horn, S Tre’von Moehrig, LB Zaven Collins, OLB Jaelen Phillips

Sleepers: OLB Azeez Ojulari, CB Asante Samuel Jr

            This one is going to be a lot harder to pick a favorite.  There is no Chase Young this year, there is no dominant pass rusher to rack up sacks and win this award easily.  Kwity Paye is the only edge rusher who is guaranteed to play.  Jaelen Phillips hasn’t emerged in Miami and while I really like Azeez Ojulari as a prospect, he may take some time to develop.  Jamin Davis will be productive in Washington, that defense is elite, but he will be overshadowed.  Patrick Surtain II looks great in camp but he’s got some veterans playing ahead of him still.  Horn should be the top CB in Carolina but teams may just avoid throwing at him so he won’t have great stats.  Moehrig is going to be on a bad defense in Vegas, he’s good, can he stand out enough?  I don’t trust the Cardinals with Collins until they get a new coaching staff.  I love Samuel but he’s not the starter yet either. 

My Pick: LB Micah Parsons.  He’s arguably the best defender for the Cowboys in preseason.  He’s awesome and he’s starting right now.  He’s going to be really good for Dan Quinn.

Postseason/Playoff Predictions (*Wildcard teams)

NFC

Washington

Green Bay

Tampa Bay

LA Rams

*San Francisco

*Seattle

*Dallas

AFC

Buffalo

Cleveland

Tennessee

Kansas City

*Baltimore

*LA Chargers

*New England

NFC Championship

Green Bay over Tampa Bay

AFC Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Kansas City (Aaron Rodgers either signs a new contract after they win or he retires and goes on to host Jeopardy)