Detroit Lions
The Lions went 15-2 last season but came up short in the playoffs and now they have to replace both their offensive and defensive coordinators along with a number of coaches on the staff. Dan Campbell hired John Morton to replace Ben Johnson at OC and promoted LB coach Kelvin Sheppard to replace Aaron Glenn as DC. The roster returns almost every key piece and that will help the transition.
QB Jared Goff comes back as the steady piece of the offense but he will have John Morton calling plays and a new guy, David Shaw (passing game coordinator), in his ear. Losing Johnson and coaches like Tanner Engstrand, Antwaan Randle-El, and JT Barrett will put more on Goff to keep the offense on track. Mark Brunell returns as QB coach and Hank Fraley is the offensive line coach and run game coordinator, that’s good news.
Amon-Ra St. Brown returns as the alpha dog of this pass game, he’s incredibly productive. Last season, they finally got Jameson Williams to be the type of playmaker they hoped he would be. It’s up to Morton, Shaw, and the others to keep him progressing. They have TE Sam LaPorta as arguably their second-best pass catcher although he had a bit of a down year last season. With St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta, they don’t have a huge need for more production from the pass catching group but they hope either Tim Patrick can stay healthy this season or rookie Isaac TeSlaa steps up for the third WR spot. TeSlaa has had an excellent preseason and it’s just a matter of time before he passes Patrick.
Fraley is one of the better offensive line coaches in the league and some teams looked at him pretty hard for their OC job. He returns to Detroit with the run game coordinator title and they will need some help from him keeping the offense running. Jamyr Gibbs broke out last season and showed he can be a top-level RB and David Montgomery can still be productive.
The offensive line has been top-notch for years but that will be put to the test this season. LT Taylor Decker is still as solid as they come and RT Penei Sewell is arguably the best RT in the league who isn’t Lane Johnson. The interior of the line is the question. C Frank Ragnow retired this summer and Kevin Zeitler left in free agency. The team drafted Tate Ratledge knowing they would need him with Zeitler leaving. That also means they are counting heavily on Christian Mahogany’s development as a second-year guy. Graham Glasgow was the LG last year and struggled, they are moving him to center to step in for Ragnow. Glasgow isn’t great at center but for now he’s a better option than trying to teach the rookie Ratledge a new position before he’s even played a snap in the NFL. They are dangerously thin on the line and the interior of the line is compromised and could be their Achilles heel.
The defense is also changing the coordinator as Kelvin Sheppard was promoted to DC when Aaron Glenn took the Jet’s job. Sheppard knows this defense well and these players so it should be a simpler transition. The defense will be built around the talent of Aidan Hutchinson as he returns at DE from his season ending injury. He should be 100% for the season but he needs some help off the edge. The team has been trying to find a suitable complement at DE and they are running it back with Marcus Davenport, who missed almost all last season after signing with them. They may need to look to re-sign Za’Darius Smith if Davenport doesn’t hold up again. AT DT they still have DJ Reader and Alim McNeill is returning from injury too. They drafted Tyliek Williams so he steps in as a starter until McNeil is ready.
The LB corps feature Alez Anzalone, Jack Campbell, and Derrick Barnes, assuming they are all healthy. That’s an assumption that could prove untrue but they are solid if those guys are playing. The secondary just re-signed S Kerby Joseph to a massive contract and he and Brian Branch are an excellent duo at safety. CB DJ Reed was signed to replace Carlton Davis. Reed is more of a CB2 so they are clearly hoping Terrion Arnold ascends to the CB1 spot in year two. Amik Robertson is the nickel with Rock Ya-Sin and Avonte Maddox as depth pieces.
The Lions will be good once again but the coaching staff changes, the interior offensive line issues and the health on defense are all reasons to question where this team ends up. The NFC North is not for the faint of heart and if this team’s performance slips even a little bit, all three teams in the division could give them trouble.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers were 11-6 last year and they return everyone of consequence and have added a few key players. Matt LeFleur is one of the better coaches in the NFL and his staff is intact for the most part so they are counting largely on the development of their younger players to help get them over the hump in the playoffs. It all starts with QB Jordan Love. He’s a truly talented player who they need to stay healthy and he should be entering his prime. He’s already dealing with a thumb issue and they hope it doesn’t hamper him all season.
The Packers have a bevy of young WRs to like but they don’t have that one ace they can count on when the chips are down. For the first time in about a quarter century they invested a first-round pick in a WR, Matthew Golden. He wasn’t my favorite prospect but it’s easy to see how he fits their needs. Christian Watson has been their only real deep threat for the past few years and he’s been inconsistent and is coming off an injury. Golden can be that guy instead and really complement Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs. It also means counting less on Dontayvion Wicks, he’s a guy with suspect hands. The TE position is in good hands with Tucker Kraft really breaking out last season and Luke Musgrave is good when he’s healthy.
RB Josh Jacobs pretty much carries the running game on his back at this point until they can get something out of MarShawn Lloyd, he’s already banged up. Jacobs fits the scheme quite well and while he’s only 27, he’s got a lot of carries on his legs. It would be helpful if Lloyd could take some of the load. The running game should be aided by the addition of LG Aaron Banks. The team spent big to bring him in as a free agent and he allows them to move Elgton Jenkins to center. Jenkins is an upgrade at center over Josh Myers assuming he agrees to move to center. Jenkins didn’t seem thrilled about the possibility after Banks was signed. LT Rasheed Wallace is a decent starter and RT Zach Tom is a good starter on the opposite side. The team should be hoping Jordan Morgan wins the RG job after they drafted him in round one last year but they are also getting him time at LT. Wallace is in a contract year and they just gave RT Zach Tom a contract extension so Wallace is probably a free agent next off season.
Jeff Hafley took over the defense last year and transitioned them to more of a 4-3 base defense and while they weren’t elite, the defense was pretty good. DEs Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness are penciled in to start. Gary is an accomplished player who had 7.5 sacks last year. They would like a little more out of him but it’s Van Ness who really has to step up. As a former first-round pick, he needs to give them more than three sacks. They aren’t that deep on the edge so fourth-round pick Barryn Sorrell has a chance to play. The DT rotation has Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, and Karl Brooks after TJ Slaton left in free agency. Those guys are solid on the inside, it’s the edge that needs better production.
The LB corps still has Quay Walker but they are going to be playing Edgerrin Cooper more. Isaiah McDuffie and Ty’Ron Hopper will fill roles too. Walker is coming off an injury and needs to steady his play if he wants to continue to play. The secondary has Xavier McKinney at SS and then there are questions all around. Evan Williams stepped in at safety as a rookie and played well and they hope their other rookie from last year, Javon Bullard, becomes their full-time nickel. The team finally cut Jaire Alexander at CB but that leaves them with an unproven group at CB. Keisean Nixon played well last year on the outside but he came up as a nickel corner and doesn’t have a long track record on the outside. They signed Nate Hobbs to be the other CB; he’s also mostly been a nickel. Nixon and Hobbs on the outside is tenuous at best. Carrington Valentine is the other option.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off an incredible 14-3 season where they finished one game behind the Lions in the division. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is known as a QB savant and that reputation was only enhanced by the season Sam Darnold had under O’Connell. Darnold was great until the last couple of games of the year and that’s why they didn’t re-sign him. O’Connell will look to work his magic with JJ McCarthy this season.
After sitting out his rookie year with a knee injury, it’s McCarthy’s job now and he steps into an even better situation than Darnold had. Justin Jefferson is arguably the best WR in the game, it’s either him or Ja’Marr Chase. Jordan Addison is a great second WR and the team has TE TJ Hockenson, who should only be better another year removed from his ACL injury. That’s three top receiving options for McCarthy. The problem is that Addison is suspended for the first three games of the season, Jefferson is dealing with a hamstring injury, and even Jalen Nailor is banged up. Nailor isn’t the best option at WR3 even when healthy which is why the Vikings pulled off the much talked about trade for Adam Thielen. Thielen is a Vikings legend and now he returns to the team. He’s still a productive player even at 35 and he’ll be a reliable target for McCarthy.
The team also went into the off season intent on fixing their interior offensive line issues and they certainly succeeded.The offensive line was abysmal last year on the interior so we have wholesale changes this season. C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries were signed as free agents from Indianapolis and the team drafted LG Donovan Jackson in the first round of the draft. Adding those three to LT Christian Darrisaw, one of the best LTs in football, and RT Brian O’Neill, a very good player himself, and you have an excellent offensive line. Aaron Jones returns as the main RB but Jones is 30 and he gets banged up. They didn’t have a great option behind Jones so this off season they traded for Jordan Mason from San Francisco. He was a very effective back when he played in place of Christian McCaffrey last year, he’s an upgrade to the unit.
Brian Flores is a defensive mastermind and O’Connell lets him do his thing on defense. Last year it took some Flores magic to cover some of the holes in the defense so this year they got him a little more help. The DT position was rough last year so they signed veterans Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Those two are probably upgrades but there are some questions given they are aging players coming off injuries. Allen probably still has something left in the tank but Hargrave is 32 and it’s not clear he’s going to be the guy he once was. These two are a big bet that this team needs to pay off. Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel proved to be excellent additions last year as both guys had double digit sacks. If they can get last year’s other first-round pick, Dallas Turner (the non-McCarthy pick), to give them anything as a third pass rusher, it takes the defense to a different level. Ivan Pace Jr. and Blake Cashman are good ILBs who have the skills Flores likes from his LBs. Pace Jr. was especially affective for Flores.
The secondary is where things could go wrong for this group. They re-signed CB Byron Murphy, he’s become a Flores favorite but they are still a bit thin at CB. Isaiah Rodgers was signed as a free agent to replace Stephon Gilmore. Rodgers is a lot younger but way less accomplished. He takes one outside CB spot. Murphy does some of his best work in the slot so they are hoping either Mekhi Blackmon returns from injury or Jeff Okudah emerges for the other outside CB spot. Harrison Smith is 36 but still getting it done at FS while they hope Josh Mettelus can step in as a full-time player for Cam Bynum and Theo Jackson becomes the third safety.
Chicago Bears
The Bears could be one of the most improved teams this season over last year and could still finish last in this division, it’s that tough. They were six games worse than the third place Packers in the division last season. Ben Johnson and his new coaching staff are probably worth three or four more wins alone after the debacle the end of the Matt Eberflus era was last year. Johnson is one of the smartest offensive minds in football and he was smart enough to hire Dennis Allen to run his defense. Allen has proven he’s not a great head coach but he’s also proven he’s a master defensive coordinator.
Ben Johnson’s most important job is getting QB Caleb Williams to live up to his incredible talent. Williams has skills that could make him one of the better QBs in the league, but he has to harness those skills in an effective manner. Johnson can design an offense to highlight Williams and find the best way to use the talent around him, and there’s plenty of it. WR DJ Moore is a legitimate WR1 in the NFL. His usage last year was confusing but Johnson will fix that. WR Rome Odunze is one of the most physically gifted WRs you’ll see, Johnson won’t squander that skill. They signed Olamide Zaccheaus to be the slot guy and then stumbled into Luther Burden III in round two of the draft, Burden is a playmaker. TE Cole Kmet is a weapon but rookie TE Colston Loveland might be an upgrade in the passing game.
The offensive line was the biggest personnel issue last season and it was the interior that was the issue. The team traded for LG Joe Thuney and RG Jonah Jackson and then signed C Drew Dalman in free agency. If those three guys are all healthy and playing, that’s a significant upgrade inside. LT Braxton Jones needs to be healthy and needs to improve. They have spent most of training camp trying to find a different LT but it looks like Jones is still the best bet. RT Darnell Wright is solid and should benefit from Ben Johnson’s offense. At RB, D’Andre Swift is the most likely starter and Rochon Johnson shouldn’t be forgotten. However, rookie seventh rounder Kyle Monangai has really stood out in camp and the coaches love him. I think he’s going to be the guy by the end of the year.
Dennis Allen will run the defense and this group should work well for him. DE Montez Sweat isn’t the speed rusher off the edge you typically think of for the top edge guy but Allen prefers big, power DEs. The team signed Deyo Odeyingbo because he’s also a big power end like Sweat. This team’s pass rush will come from pushing the pocket more than beating teams off the edge. At DT they are hoping for development from Gervon Dexter, a talented young player. They also inexplicably signed Grady Jarrett to a fairly expensive contract. It’s the one major move that I questioned from the off season but Jarrett is a pro’s pro and the team needs that for sure. Andrew Billings is still around and they drafted Shemar Turner so hopefully for the Bears, if Jarrett doesn’t pan out on the field, they can cover.
At LB, MLB Tremaine Edmunds is an expensive player but he’s been solid for them since they signed him as a free agent. TJ Edwards was brought in at the same time and he’s a good LB too. They mainly used two LBs last year and if Allen wants to use three, he may have to look to rookie Ruben Hyppolite II because there’s not a lot of depth.
Mostly they used nickel so they use five defensive backs because they have a strong secondary. CB Jaylon Johnson may not be in the top, elite tier of CBs but he’s the next level down from them. Tyrique Stevenson has had some ups and downs in his short career but he’s got talent. If Allen can get him straight, they should be fine. Nickel back Kyler Gordon is one of the best at that position in the league. Safeties Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard are a solid duo. Brisker is a guy who could still get a little better and be one of the better safeties in the game. Byard is an older veteran who just knows what to do.
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