The draft starts tomorrow!
Anyone who scouts draft prospects ends up finding guys they like more than others might or has an affinity for them at least. Sometimes it’s just the type of player is more to their liking, sometimes the guy has a good story so you’re rooting for him, or sometimes it’s just guys from a school you like. It goes without saying I like the draft prospects from Iowa more often than not, but I’ve also watched them play so much I have a pretty clear understanding of what they are as prospects. This year, I think Kaleb Johnson (2nd round), Sebastian Castro (4th-5th round), Luke Lachey (6th round) are being undervalued overall. The rest of the guys; Yahya Black (4th-5th round), Jay Higgins (6th-7th round), Connor Colby (7th round), and Jermari Harris (7th round-free agent) are probably properly rated. Johnson can be a superstar and Castro is going to be good nickel back/safety. I would be willing to bet Lachey and Colby outplay those rounds if that where they go but I understand their prospect ranking.
There are other prospects I like so let’s look at some of My Guys before we get the draft. These are guys I like as players and I hope they go to places who know how to use and develop them. So much of a guy’s success comes down to the right circumstances, it’s why where guys go and how they fit is my favorite part of the draft process. I’m going to avoid most of the best prospects, I’ve talked enough about them, where’s the fun in that.
Quarterbacks
Will Howard (Ohio St) and Dillon Gabriel (Oregon)
After Cam Ward I’m really not a huge fan of this QB class, that’s not a unique take. Spending a late first or early second round pick on guys like Jalen Milroe, Tyler Shough, or even Jaxson Dart just doesn’t feel right to me. Taking a guy like Will Howard or Dillon Gabriel in round 4-6 seems like the smarter play. These guys have their shortcomings, and that’s not a shot at Gabriel’s height. Howard’s throwing motion is a bit robotic and Gabriel doesn’t have elite arm strength, and yes, he’s short for a QB. However, Howard can run an offense and knows how to win. Gabriel has elite accuracy and can also run an offense very efficiently. I prefer to invest a little less valuable draft pick in a guy who has the same odds of hitting, seems like a smarter play.
Running backs
Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)
Okay, this is a highly rated player but I do love Hampton. I can understand the love, he’s an all-around RB with elite skills. If Ashton Jeanty wasn’t sucking up all the air at RB, Hampton might be a top 15 pick, he might be one anyway. He’s shown more talent in the pass game than Kaleb Johnson even if I do think Johnson can do more than he showed, Hampton proved it more.
Damien Martinez (Miami)
Martinez is a big back with some serious power in his runs. He isn’t the elusive kind but he’ll run through anyone. He can handle a workload and I could see him going in round three or four and ending up a starter for a team.
Wide Receivers
Tory Horton (Colorado St)
If Horton isn’t injured last year, I think he’s much higher ranked than the third-round grade he currently has by most teams. He has good size, excellent speed, and he’s a really good WR overall. He’s a starting WR at the NFL level and someone is going to get a steal in the middle rounds. He’s going to outplay his draft slot. Hey New England, pay attention.
Emeka Egbuka (Ohio St)
Egbuka is the guy who does everything really well and is not elite at any one particular thing. He can play in the slot or move outside. He has good size and while he’s not a burner, he has plenty of speed. He runs good routes, he can block in the run game, and generally he’s just good at football. I have no idea why he isn’t getting more love. I know Matthew Golden ran 4.29 at the combine but I would take Egbuka 100 times out of 100 over Golden for my team. I don’t think Golden is a bad player I just think Egbuka is going to be better.
Offensive line (there are some late guys I do really like)
Will Campbell (LSU)
I know, he’s a top 10 pick and I said I wasn’t doing top guys but I’m staking my claim. He’s going to be a good LT in the NFL. He’s not going to be Trent Williams but he’s going to be good. The NFL has plenty of Taylor Decker and Garrett Boles types of LT who do a good job and don’t get a lot of accolades. That is probably Campbell’s future but that’s what I want in a LT, stability and consistency.
Josh Simmons (Ohio St)
Simmons is coming off a major knee injury but he has all the size and skills necessary to be a good NFL LT. He needs a little patience coming off the knee injury but I think he gets there. He also has a high ceiling because of his size and skills. Someone is going to get a good future LT late in round one of this draft.
Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)
Trapilo is 6’8 and he has all the length you want in a LT. He looks a little clumsy at times because he’s so tall and long but he just needs to refine his technique. He’s the type of physical body type you want to take a chance on. If you have a good O-line coach, this is a guy to take in round three.
Charles Grant (Williams & Mary)
Grant is a small school player who needs some time to develop but he has great physical traits to be a potential OT in the league. He may start his career inside but he’s a good athlete with the size and length you want even if he isn’t the tallest OT.
Emery Jones Jr. (LSU)
Jones was a three-year starter at RT for LSU and he probably moves inside to guard in the NFL. He has the size to play OT but lacks some fundamental skills to stay on the outside. His size at 6’5 315 lbs. with his ability to move guys makes him a really good fit inside. Being able to draft a guy like Jones in round four of five is the number one argument against taking a guard in round one. The difference between what you can get from Jones and what you might get from a guy like Tyler Booker is negligible and you can get Jones maybe three rounds later.
Defensive Line
Mike Green (Marshall)
He has some off the field questions he has to answer for teams but on the field he’s a dominant pass rusher. Unlike a lot of the edge rushers in this class, he knows how to close and actually sack the QB. He isn’t big but he’s powerful and can get the edge on just about anyone.
Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
He’s not being talked about enough. Mason Graham is the top DT in the draft but Kenneth Grant and Walter Nolan seem to be getting more love than Harmon. I’ll take Harmon over those guys. He’s a menace in the middle of the defensive line and he could play in any alignment. He’s going to be good early and for a long time.
Defensive Back
Malaki Starks (Georgia)
Instincts and intelligence will take you a long way at the safety position. Starks isn’t an elite athletic specimen but he’s a closer at safety. You want a guy who’s the last line of defense to be reliable, Starks is reliable. Someone is getting an awesome safety near the end of round one or the beginning of round two unless some team wises up.
Sebastian Castro (Iowa)
I’m throwing in one Iowa guy for good measure. Castro can play safety or nickel back and he can cover and tackle better than most guys playing that particular position. He’s a little undersized but that won’t stop him. Also, he’s going to be a special team’s demon for the team that drafts him.
The Not My Guys
There are some guys I’m not so fond of. These are guys I think will struggle unless they are in the perfect situation. This scares me because the perfect situation is rare to find.
QB Shadeur Sanders (Colorado)
I just can’t get on board with Sanders. He has too many limitations and the idea of him in round one is just untenable for me. If teams were looking at him as a late second, early third round pick, fine. In a perfect circumstance with great playmakers, maybe he’s Brock Purdy, but that’s a tight needle to thread.
Edge Jalon Walker (Georgia)
Walker is a good pass rusher but he’s undersized. His tweener size and skills means if he isn’t in the perfect situation for his skill set, he’s going to struggle. One reason I gave him to Tampa Bay in my mock draft was because I think Todd Bowles’s defense would fit him well.
DT Walter Nolan (Ole Miss)
Brad Pitt has a line in the movie Moneyball where he asks about a player, “If he’s such a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?” Nolan is such a talented player but he’s frustrating to watch at times because he disappears. If he’s so good, why isn’t he always good? He needs to go somewhere where the coach isn’t going to put up with less than his best and there are some vets to hold him accountable.
CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)
Hairston is undersized but feisty and has elite speed, there’s just something missing. I don’t know exactly what he’s missing when I watch him but he should be better. He makes some plays but then blows some coverages.
RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona St.)
I know everyone loves this guy and he’s a great story. I’m just not sure he has enough speed to make it as a RB. My favorite pro-comp I’ve seen is BenJarvus Green-Ellis and that just doesn’t feel like a compliment. He can be a solid backup but if you’re drafting him higher than round four, that’s not a good idea.
S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)
Does anyone remember Isaiah Simmons from Clemson a few years ago? Ridiculous athlete but just didn’t have a true position. Emmanwori is supposed to be a safety but if a team takes him and thinks they can play him at LB, it could go bad. Or if he’s a safety in the wrong scheme, it goes bad. He’s an insane athlete but how good of a football player is he really? There’s a wide range of outcomes on Emmanwori.
The Hott Read 