Post combine but before free agency.
Every year the NFL combine is one of the most polarizing events in the pre-draft run up and this year will be no different. You don’t even have to work out to have a bad combine, just ask Shadeur Sanders. Clarity comes in many forms, a guy is faster than you thought, a guy is slower than you hoped. He doesn’t measure up, literally, or he has some bad interviews with teams. This is the current narrative with Sanders, teams apparently didn’t like his attitude during interviews. There have always been some mixed reviews about Sanders as he can be brash and arrogant, but those are traits that most QBs have to some extent. You kind of have to if you’re a top QB prospect. Some teams will make moves with a veteran or deals start to come together before the league year starts next week and that will have some effect on the draft. There are other things that have happened to change this mock draft so I’ll start with some news that changes things.
Matthew Stafford is staying in LA with the Rams which means the Giants and Raiders had to either pivot to other veterans when free agency opens or they look to the draft. The Raiders pivoted to a trade for Geno Smith from Seattle, which changes the calculus for the Raiders and the Seahawks. The Bears have traded for two new starting offensive guards in Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson so all those mock drafts with them taking Tyler Booker are out the window. Alaric Jackson re-signed with the Rams meaning that’s one less option for the Patriots at LT so if they strike out with Ronnie Stanley, LT becomes the priority with the fourth pick. Tee Higgins got franchised again by the Bengals so the Patriots may have to look elsewhere in free agency for a WR or they look for one in the draft again. Sam Darnold didn’t get franchised by the Vikings so he’s the top available veteran QB and could be in play for Tennessee, Cleveland, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, or all of the sudden, Seattle. Things will become clearer next week as teams start signing free agents but what’s the fun in waiting for that, lets Mock Draft.
1. New York Giants (TRADE from Tennessee): Cam Ward QB Miami
This starts with Tennessee making a move this next week at QB. I think they are the dark horse to sign Darnold and then they can look to move the first pick for some draft capital. They don’t want to drop too far, they made it clear they want one of the best players in the draft, that means either Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. They move down to three and let the Giants come up to get their QB. Ward can be a Brian Daboll’s mini-version of Josh Allen only he won’t have to fix Ward’s accuracy, he’s pretty accurate. Ward isn’t as big as Allen but he has some movement skills and he has all the throws in his bag that make him a legit NFL QB. He doesn’t lack for confidence in his arm and he will allow Daboll to unlock all the parts of the offense in New York. And he’ll make Malik Nabers very happy.
2. Cleveland Browns (3-14): Abdul Carter Edge Penn St.
The Browns seem adamant they are not trading Myles Garrett and I tend to believe them because there just isn’t a deal out there that seems feasible. Trading him for two late first round picks and some other picks doesn’t seem like enough and its only really good teams that would trade for him so you’re not getting top draft choices. Either way, I think they take Carter to either pair with Garrett on the defensive line and/or as a hedge against eventually losing him either in a trade or free agency. Carter has a stress reaction in his foot (whatever that means) and it will need to be thoroughly checked out but I don’t think it will end up hurting his draft stock. He’s one of the two blue chip prospects in this draft and Cleveland would be lucky to land him. I also think this is where Kirk Cousins ends up as stopgap at QB so they don’t take one this early.
3. Tennessee Titans (TRADE from NY Giants): Travis Hunter CB/WR Colorado
The Titans pick up a third rounder this year and another pick next year to move down two spots and they still get arguably the best player in the draft. Hunter can be the CB1 this team needs after L’Jarius Snead wasn’t everything they thought he could be. He’s also the CB1 they wished they had gotten when they drafted Caleb Farley a couple of years ago. He can also be a part-time WR to give them some juice opposite Calvin Ridley for a new QB, Sam Darnold or otherwise. New GM Mike Borgonzi and the new front office said they didn’t want to pass on a generational prospect, well, here’s the generational prospect and you picked up two more picks, that’s good process.
4. New England Patriots (4-13): Will Campbell OT LSU
Alaric Jackson is off the market and as much as I think they will make a major offer to Ronnie Stanley, I think he goes back to Baltimore. He’s been there a long time, he’s an older player, and unless the money difference is ridiculous, he’s going to stick with the team that is closer to winning a Super Bowl while he’s still playing. That puts OT as the #1 need for this team. Armand Membou from Missouri put on an athletic show at the combine and is getting buzz as the OT1 in this draft. Sorry but he played RT for three years and I’m not going through the “we can move him to LT and he’ll be fine” stuff again after last year. Membou’s arms are about ¾ of an inch longer than Campbell’s, I don’t care. Will Campbell started as a freshman and has started for three years at LT at LSU playing against SEC competition and has been awesome. Don’t overthink it, take Campbell and he can be Drake Mays blindside protector for the next decade.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13): Mason Graham DT Michigan
The Jaguars need high end talent and Graham is one of the best players in this draft. He measured in with shorter than ideal arms at the combine, so what? Watch this guy play at Michigan and he causes mayhem wherever he lines up. They need help on the interior of the defensive line as they are a little thin there. Graham would make life easier for Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen and he even has the versatility to line up outside a bit and they can play with moving Walker around. He doesn’t look like the prototypical DT body type with his big barrel chest and short arms but he makes it work. Jacksonville has plenty of work to do but at this point, taking the best player available is the smart move instead of reaching to fill a need.
6. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE from Las Vegas): Armand Membou OL Missouri
This would be a shocking trade given Kyle Shanahan rarely invests draft capital this high in offensive linemen but Membou helps them tremendously. He can step in this season as the LG to replace Aaron Banks and then be the eventual replacement for Trent Williams at LT. Membou is a very athletic player which fits Shanahan’s blocking scheme and giving him a year to learn the left side at guard next to the best LT in football would make a smoother transition. It would take a special talent to get Shanahan to do this and Membou might be that guy. Also, Trent Williams is going to be 37 next season and he’s extremely expensive. With all the issues the 49ers have with salary right now and Brock Purdy’s extension on deck, they could use a cheap LT for a few years on a rookie deal. They also make this deal because if the Jets don’t re-sign Morgan Moses, Membou is a player they could take a serious look at next.
7. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE from NY Jets): Shemar Stewart DE Texas A&M
This is where things get really interesting, the Raiders trade out of six after trading for Geno Smith and passing on Shadeur Sanders and now the Jets do the same thing. The Jets need a lot of help on defense, their entire secondary not named Sauce Gardner, are all free agents. They need picks to rebuild this roster and if they aren’t convinced Sanders is a good fit for Aaron Glenn or New York, they can trade down. The Falcons need help in the front seven of their defense and they have gone back and forth between a 3-4 and a 4-3 defense too many times and guys don’t fit the scheme when they change. Stewart didn’t produce sacks in college but he did produce pressure and he can play multiple spots up front. He lost weight so he looked fast at the combine coming in at 267 lbs. but he played last year at 281 so he can be whatever they need him to be. Their offense should be ready to go, the defense needs reinforcements so they move up for Stewart who made himself some money at the combine.
8. Carolina Panthers (5-12): Tetairoa McMillan WR Arizona
The Panthers somehow salvaged Bryce Young in the last half of the season and Xavier Legette became a solid rookie WR with him. They like Jalen Coker too but they need a true WR1 and that’s McMillan. He’s a big, tall outside WR with a great catch radius and he’ll make Young’s life a whole lot easier. When in doubt, Young can throw it up and McMillan is more likely than not to come down with it. This team needs playmakers and McMillan is the best one in the draft. They could use some help on defense for sure but this is a deeper draft on the defensive line and they can wait until their second-round pick to grab a pass rusher.
9. New Orleans Saints (5-12): Will Johnson CB Michigan
The Saints are in salary cap hell and they need a lot of help on defense. Those two things don’t mesh well so they have to start somewhere. Most have them looking for defensive line help but they also need a CB to start. New defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is a defensive backs coach at heart and they traded away Marshon Lattimore last season and they probably don’t have the money to re-sign Paulsen Adebo, that leaves Kool-Aid McKinstry as their only solid starting outside CB. Will Johnson didn’t have a great season at Michigan and teams may wonder about his top-end speed but he’s a player and he’s a starter immediately in the NFL next season. They could take a chance on a guy like Jalon Walker (he’s a little small for their tastes), Mykel Williams (they do like oversized DE’s who aren’t all that productive in college), or they could go for a guy who seems like more a sure thing, that’s Johnson. Sometimes it’s best to just draft a good football player.
10. Chicago Bears (5-12): Mike Green DE Marshall
Ben Johnson isn’t messing around with his offensive line overhaul as the Bears already worked two trades to pick up Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson to be their new starting guards, that solves that problem. The next big issue is getting Montez Sweat some help rushing the passer. Mike Green is a little out of sight, out of mind at the moment, after not participating at the combine. However, he had a good Senior Bowl week and he’s a legit pass rusher off the edge. He plays with more power than you would think for a guy his size and I think Dennis Allen will be able to work with that. There’s a little part of me that wanted to give Ben Johnson Ashton Jeanty at RB and if the Bears sign a DE in free agency, that might be where my next mock draft goes.
11. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from San Francisco): Ashton Jeanty RB Boise St.
This is where things get dicey for Shadeur Sanders, trading for Geno Smith wouldn’t preclude them from drafting Sanders. However, if they pass on him after trading down, look out, the free fall could be real. Smith an immediate upgrade from what they ran out there last season at QB. Jeanty would be a huge upgrade from what they ran out there at RB last season too. Geno Smith, with Jeanty and Brock Bowers is the beginning of a much better offense than they had last season. If they add a good WR at some point, the offense starts to get really interesting.
12. Dallas Cowboys (7-10): Kelvin Banks Jr. OL Texas
The Cowboys need a RB and a WR but they also just lost future Hall of Famer Zack Martin at guard and the offensive line is paramount to their success. The jury seems split on Banks but he’s a good prospect at guard or tackle. He could be an immediate starter at guard to replace Martin but he’s also a nice hedge against Tyler Guyton having any development issues at LT and if Terrence Steele doesn’t regain his form at RT, Banks could help there too. The Cowboys have never shied away from taking offensive linemen in round one and this would be a solid choice for them.
13. Miami Dolphins (8-9): Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina
The Dolphins look to be pivoting in their secondary as both starting safeties from last season are free agents, Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer. Holland is going to get a big free agent deal somewhere and Poyer is an aging player. I’m not the biggest Emmanwori guy because I think he needs to go to a place that has a plan to use him. He’s a great athlete who is either a really big safety or a small LB. The Dolphin’s defensive coordinator is Anthony Weaver who cut his teeth in Baltimore and the Ravens know a thing or two about using safeties well. If Weaver can find a plan, Emmanwori can be a very additive piece to the Dolphin’s secondary. I probably wouldn’t take Emmanwori this high but after is combine showing and looking at the fit and the need in Miami, this pairing seems plausible.
14. Indianapolis Colts (8-9): Tyler Warren TE Penn St.
This is may be the most common mock draft pairing across the internet. That’s because it makes a ton of sense. The Colts don’t have a great TE and Anthony Richardson could use all the help he can get. Warren is a supreme athlete and he’ll be a really good all-around TE. The team needs playmakers and Warren is a playmaker. Warren is 6’6 255 lbs. and runs like a deer. He will give Richardson a big over-the-middle target and make his life a little easier.
15. New York Jets (TRADE from Atlanta): Jahdae Barron DB Texas
The Jets secondary is going to need a complete overhaul. Sauce Gardner is the only returning player of note and that means they need a starting outside CB, a nickel back, and two starting safeties. Barron is the jack of all trades player in the secondary. Depending on what they do in free agency he could be the starting outside guy opposite Gardner, or the nickel corner. He can also play safety and while he was more of a zone guy at Texas I think Aaron Glenn will like his feistiness as a guy who doesn’t back down. Barron could be for the Jets what Glenn made Brian Branch in Detroit, and that’s useful for any defense. Barron’s best spot is a nickel who can be moved all over the field.
16. Arizona Cardinals (8-9): Jalon Walker LB Georgia
The Cardinals need playmakers on defense and Walker may be a bit of a tweener but he’s a playmaker. He would fit their scheme pretty well as a pass rushing LB who can also play off ball and be guy who just gets to the QB when they need it. Walker has his fans and his detractors but at the midpoint of the first round he’s a really good value pick. The Cardinals defense needs all the help it can get and Jonathan Gannon is a smart defensive mind who should find ways to use Walker’s skills to the fullest.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8): Jihaad Campbell LB Alabama
Trey Hendrickson is the best player on the Bengals defense and he’s been given permission to seek a trade. Germaine Pratt is one of the better players and he’s requested a trade. This defense was bad last year and if those two guys are gone things get ugly. Campbell is a hybrid LB/edge player depending on who you ask and this defense needs anybody who can make a play. He’s a little raw but he’s worth a gamble for a team that needs all the help they can get on defense. If there was an elite edge rusher or CB left, I would put them here but Mykel Williams is a gamble similar to other ones they have taken at DE that haven’t worked out. That feels like to big of a risk. At worst Campbell is just a damn good LB.
18. Seattle Seahawks (10-7): Shadeur Sanders QB Colorado
The Seahawks may be in luck after trading away Geno Smith if Sanders falls this far. The reviews from the combine were not great about Sanders’ interviews but he’s well worth a shot at this point in the draft. The real question is will his fall end here or do the Seahawks take Jaxson Dart, who seems to be closing in on Sanders to be QB2 in this class. New Seahawks offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak is from the Shanahan school of offense so Sanders’ skill set would be a good fit. He’s not the most physically talented player but he’s highly accurate and throws a nice deep ball. I have said before, he’s somewhere between Brock Purdy and Jared Goff, that’s a good fit for the offense.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7): Mykel Williams Edge Georgia
The Buccaneers are losing most of their edge rushers, that’s not a bad thing since the ones they are losing aren’t great. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Shaq Barrett haven’t been the most effective guys and while Anthony Nelson is a solid backup, they need more opposite Yaya Diaby. Williams is a stud athlete who just never produced at Georgia like you would think his athleticism would allow. That could be rectified if used as an true edge rusher and not a DE like he was at Georgia. This would be a bet on potential but Williams might be worth it.
20. Denver Broncos (10-7): Omarion Hampton RB North Carolina
This one might surprise some people but Hampton had a great combine and the Broncos need a RB. Javonte Williams has never been the same since his knee injury a couple years ago and he’s a free agent. The team has some guys but none of them stepped up last season. Hampton is a bell cow type of back; he can handle a major workload. He’s big, physical, fast and he has enough skill as a pass catcher to be an every down back. Sean Payton found his QB last season, this year he gets his answer at RB.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): Matthew Golden WR Texas
Golden had a good combine while Luther Burden III was fine but unspectacular and Emeka Egbuka didn’t test in Indianapolis. He feels like the guy with momentum at this point and the Steelers desperately need WR help. They could look at Jaxson Dart but drafting a QB that might be a reach in the early 20s of the draft feels a little too soon after the Kenny Pickett debacle and the Steelers seem like they want a veteran instead. Golden would give whoever plays QB a better chance to succeed because he’s a nice complement to George Pickens. He’s not the biggest WR but he has speed and runs good routes, that’s a nice combination if you can get it.
22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6): James Pearce Jr. OLB Tennessee
The reviews are really mixed on Pearce at this point. No one doubts his traits and what he brings as a pass rusher but there are serious questions about him off the field. There were some things about his time at Tennessee that will give teams pause, however, there are also those who say his issues were about the environment at Tennessee for him. The Chargers cut Joey Bosa to save a ton of money and Khalil Mack is a free agent, they need pass rush help. Jim Harbaugh is no stranger to guys who have some questionable character traits but he believes in his own culture enough to think he can help them overcome those issues. I can see Harbaugh taking a chance on a guy if he thinks he can get the best out of him. If Pearce has his head on straight and plays to his talent, he’s a star.
23. Green Bay Packers (11-6): Kenneth Grant DT Michigan
The Packers don’t have a lot of losses coming in free agency so there are not a ton of clear holes to fill. DT TJ Slaton is a free agent and he’s the one big body they have at the position. Also, Kenny Clark has been great for them but he’ll be 30 this year and he’s quite expensive. They like Devonte Wyatt and Karl Brooks, the two backup DTs for now but neither of them is very big. Grant is a space eater who can push the pocket from time to time. He’s 6’4 330 lbs. and can be immovable, he would give them a good, young DT who keeps the LBs clean and makes life easier for the pass rushers on the edge.
24. Minnesota Vikings (14-3): Derrick Harmon DL Oregon
The Vikings have a couple of free agents on their defensive line and they weren’t exactly stacked there to begin with. Harmon is 6’5 313 lbs. and can play anywhere on the line in any formation and he’ll be an effective player. He hasn’t gotten as much attention as some others but he’s the type of lineman Brian Flores will love because he can use him anywhere and move him where he’s most effective. He’ll find matchups whether it’s inside or outside and Harmon will create havoc. He makes the front seven a tougher matchup across the board.
25. Houston Texans (10-7): Tyler Booker OG Alabama
The Texans offensive line was pretty awful at times last year and got a little better when they moved Tytus Howard to guard and played Blake Fisher at RT. They still need more help inside because it looks like they are cutting Shaq Mason at RG. Booker was one of the least athletic players at the combine and it took him out of being a top half of the first-round type of player. That said, he’s an excellent guard who plays with power and precision and is always where he’s supposed to be. He gets the highest marks from teams when it comes to character and leadership and that will mean something to DeMeco Ryans. He’s a plug and play guy at OG and he’ll make the offensive line a lot better for CJ Stroud and especially for the running game.
26. Los Angeles Rams (10-7): Walter Nolen DT Ole Miss
The Rams drafted Jared Verse and Braden Fiske as their first two picks last year and they hit on both of them. Along with Kobie Turner, who they hit on a couple of years ago, they have some really good building blocks in the front seven. They may lose Bobby Brown III in free agency this off season so getting a guy like Nolen would really help them. Nolen is a truly talented interior defensive lineman who would fit between Turner and Fiske and really juice their interior pocket pressure. This team hasn’t invested much in the secondary lately but Nolen is a better prospect than the CBs and safeties here so they go best player available over trying to fill a bigger need.
27. Baltimore Ravens (12-5): Malaki Starks S Georgia
This would be right up the Raven’s alley. Starks is one of the better football players in this draft but he went to the combine and looked like a pedestrian athlete competing against Nick Emmanwori. The problem is he’s a better football player and this is why the Ravens always draft so well. Marcus Williams is a free agent and while Ar’Darius Washington stepped up last year when Williams was out, he’s also a restricted free agent. Whether they re-sign Washington or not, they need another safety so they can move Kyle Hamilton back to the position where they move him all over creation. Starks is a great football player who plays the game faster than he runs and sees things and reacts with elite instincts for the game. He and Hamilton would be a nightmare pairing for the rest of the league.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Detroit): Josh Simmons OT Ohio St.
The Chiefs franchise tagged RG Trey Smith, traded LG Joe Thuney and seemingly are set up to move Kingsley Suamataia to LG after he failed to take the LT position. This leaves them spending a lot of money on Trey Smith, C Creed Humphrey, and RT Jawaan Taylor so they need to save some money at LT. Simmons was on his way to being a top half of the first-round player before he hurt his knee. Assuming all medical checks come back fine, he’s well worth a late first round pick here. The Chiefs make a small move up to get him ahead of Washington potentially looking for an OT or another team moving up. Simmons is an immediate starter assuming his knee is good and he’s the best LT they have had since the best days of Eric Fisher.
29. Washington Commanders (12-5): Luther Burden III WR Missouri
The Commanders are clearly invested in making the most of Jayden Daniels and they proved that by trading for Deebo Samuel from San Francisco. They have money to spend in free agency but I think they invest that on defense and try to build out the offense in the draft. Deebo is a nice veteran but he gets hurt a lot and they need more than one WR. They have Terry McLaurin as their WR1 and then a bunch of free agents they hope to improve upon. Burden had a tough year at Missouri but he’s a true talent and he’s dangerous with the ball in his hands. I think he could have a better year than Deebo and become a favorite target for Daniels. They could look for a LT but Brandon Coleman did a solid job last year and they can wait to address the offensive line needs.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE from Buffalo): Colston Loveland TE Michigan
The Jaguars have a lot picks in this draft and they trade their second-round pick (36th overall) and maybe a fourth rounder to move back into the end of round one to get Loveland. The Jaguars just cut Evan Engram for salary cap purposes and he has been one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets. If they are looking to get the best out of Lawrence, they need to give him all the help they can get and Loveland is an excellent TE. He would be a good middle of the field target while Brian Thomas Jr. is a outside deep threat.
31. Detroit Lions (TRADE from Kansas City): Grey Zabel IOL North Dakota St.
The Lions pick up a later round pick from Kansas City and still end up with a starting offensive lineman they likely would have taken at 28. Zabel can step into the RG spot that Kevin Zeitler is likely vacating as a free agent and he starts the process of the Lions getting younger on the interior offensive line. Zeitler is 35 and LG Graham Glasgow will be 33 this year. C Frank Ragnow is going to be 29 and his body has taken a beating over the years. Zabel is good insurance in case Ragnow hangs it up earlier than expected at some point in the next couple of seasons. The Lions know the value of their awesome offensive line and the worst thing they can do is let it start to fall apart. Zabel is a nice investment for the future.
32. Cleveland Browns (TRADE from Philadelphia): Jaxson Dart QB Ole Miss
The Browns have the 33rd pick and there’s no chance Philadelphia would take Dart so why make this trade? Well, they pick up the 5th year option on a rookie QB contract by drafting Dart in the first round and not the second. The Browns have 12 picks in this draft including five sixth rounders, flip one to Philadelphia and you get added time for a rookie QB. This also matches up because I think they sign Kirk Cousins as a cheap veteran free agent and this pick gives them a guy who can sit and learn behind Cousins for a couple of years if necessary and the that make the 5th year option that much more important. The Browns get a cheap veteran in Cousins, a cheap rookie in Dart and have remade their QB position without spending too much money or a lot of draft capital. This is how you move on while having to eat Deshaun Watson’s stupid contract.
The Hott Read 