The QB Carousel Spins
This off season is going to be quite interesting when it comes to the QB carousel. There are 11 or 12 teams with QB questions heading into this off season that need to be addressed soon. They break down into different groups depending on their level of need and how soon they have to deal with the question. The good news is there are some answers out there, the bad news is not everyone is going to find one to their liking. Some team could end up in a situation similar to the Raiders this last season with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder as their options, the Raiders hope it isn’t them again.
Tier 1- (teams not bringing back their main starter from 2024): Cleveland, New York Giants, New York Jets, Las Vegas, and probably Pittsburgh.
Tier 2- (teams that don’t want to bring back their starter from 2024 but might have to): Tennessee and New Orleans
Tier 3- (teams that may be looking for a change but it has to be an upgrade): Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, Indianapolis
Tier 4- (team that might not want to move on but might move on): LA Rams
The way this all shakes out will be determined by the players and where they end up wanting to go. Everyone has a reason for wanting to end up somewhere. A better contract, a new location, a coaching staff, a chance to start, a new beginning, not every player’s motivations are the same. QB moves will happen in three phases. Phase one is free agency and trades that happen in the new league year that starts in March. Phase two is the draft, that’s where teams that missed on their free agent targets will try to find a young solution so they can sell hope, to the fan base or the ownership, depending on their circumstances. And phase three is when you strike out on the first two phases and you have to decide if you want Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph These things tend to happen like dominoes. The biggest domino generally has to fall first (or not fall at all) before everything else happens. The first domino is Matthew Stafford and the Rams. I’m going to break this down in steps and try to go in order of how things fall, it’s not a perfect sequence as some things don’t affect others as much but I’ll point out if there are effects.
The first and second dominos could be linked. The Rams have to figure out if they are sticking with Stafford and how long they want him around. Stafford has to figure out how long he plans on playing, he’s 37 and while he’s staying relatively healthy the last couple of years, it doesn’t get easier. The Rams may feel this is a good time to move on while they can still get draft capital from a team hoping to win now with Stafford at QB and while they may have a solution available to them. I see three viable options, the Giants, who need to win now for their coach and GM, the Steelers, who need a real QB solution, and the Vikings, who need a bridge to JJ McCarthy. I think the Steelers and Giants need longer-term solutions. Stafford maybe has two years left before it may be over. That’s not great for Mike Tomlin or Brian Daboll because that means they are back in the same boat they are currently in pretty quickly. The Steelers have been trying band-aids since Big Ben, they need an real plan. The Giants would be putting Stafford behind a suspect offensive line, he may say no thanks to that.
I think the smart move is for the Rams to deal Stafford to the Vikings. The Vikings showed they are ready to win right now the way they played with Sam Darnold but they need an upgrade from Darnold. Stafford is the upgraded version of Darnold but he’s older and isn’t a long-term impediment to JJ McCarthy. The Vikings can pay Stafford for a couple of years while McCarthy comes back from injury and learns from a veteran. Stafford had Kevin O’Connell as his coach in LA before O’Connell got the Vikings job so there’s a familiarity to the offense. Stafford makes the Vikings a much tougher playoff team than Darnold did.
Where does that leave the Rams? Well, Sam Darnold will be a free agent and he’ll be 28 next season. He’s a similar player physically to Stafford and showed he could run the McVay style offense that O’Connell runs in Minnesota. Could McVay, the teacher, develop Darnold in a way that O’Connell, his student, couldn’t quite do? McVay once got the Rams to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff, then won a Super Bowl with Stafford. From a talent standpoint, Darnold is somewhere in between but probably closer to the Stafford ceiling than the Goff floor. He would give the Rams a little more long-term stability if they were to sign him to a four- or five-year contract. Stafford and Darnold might get similar yearly salaries but not the same amount of years.
Stafford is the domino that has to fall to get a few things started because some teams aren’t going to make a move until they know where Stafford ends up. It’s completely possible he goes nowhere but it’s feeling like the Rams want to make a move for some stability moving forward. He’s also important because I think if Darnold has his choice of places to go, LA would be the top of his list. Playing for McVay in the system he just excelled in is the best possible outcome for his career. Darnold will have plenty of suitors but the Rams situation is better than all of them except maybe staying in Minnesota and I don’t think the Vikings want to commit to him.
If Stafford and Darnold go off the board that doesn’t leave a lot for the teams that need immediate help. The immediate true starter level veteran QBs will be Kirk Cousins, the Falcons have to cut him after already replacing him and no one is trading for that contract. Derek Carr, if someone is desperate and is dumb enough to take on that contract. The Saints need to trade Carr because they can’t take the salary cap hit they would incur if they cut him. Russell Wilson, for the teams that get really desperate, and then Aaron Rodgers, for the teams that have lost their minds. Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, and maybe Jacoby Brissett could be your starter if you’re just looking to punt on the year and wait for the 2026 NFL draft, which should be better at QB than this draft.
It’s sad to say but Kirk Cousins is probably the next domino in the sequence. He was not good for Atlanta last season but he was a 36-year-old guy coming off an Achilles tear, thinking he would be good was foolish. Another year of rehab will certainly help but he has to be in the right system and he knows that. Cousins is going to cash in on his contract from Atlanta when they cut him so he can play for a low salary for one year to rehab his game so he can try to cash in one last time next off season. The Steelers feel like a team that should go get him, they are a win-now team but I don’t see the fit for them. The best fit for Cousins is Cleveland where his former coach Kevin Stefanski is running the offense and Stefanski needs Cousins as much as Cousins needs Stefanski. Stefanski needs a guy he can win with because he needs to win. With Deshaun Watson likely out for the year and careening towards the end of his career, Stefanski gets his QB who can run his offense. Cousins takes a low paying deal and plays in an offense he knows he can be good in. If the Browns can get a veteran QB on the cheap they can spend draft capital and free agent money to fix their offensive line too. Win-Win for everyone.
The Giants might make a play for Cousins if Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen think they are one year from unemployment but I think if they strike out on a Stafford trade and don’t get Darnold, they are more likely to pivot to the draft and set their sights on Cam Ward at three overall. The only other scenario I could see happening is they take a flyer on Russell Wilson for a year and then double back and take a QB in round two to develop for a year, someone like Jalen Milroe.
The Steelers are the other team looking to win while they still have guys like TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick in their prime on defense. They could go hard after Stafford or Darnold but it doesn’t feel like their style. They should go get a real QB for the future but in this draft that’s hard to do. I think they bring Justin Fields back and maybe grab a lottery ticket QB in the middle rounds of the draft like Quinn Ewers, Tyler Shough, or Will Howard. It would give Fields competition, it would give the team some cover if Fields flops, and the investment wouldn’t preclude them from making a move in the 2026 draft to go after a guy like Drew Allar. Smart teams look ahead and their coach and GM aren’t afraid of getting fired for a subpar year.
Tennessee is in an interesting place. They have the number one pick in a draft where taking a QB first overall looks like a decision that gets you fired. They will be in play for Darnold, Cousins, and maybe Aaron Rodgers but that’s suicidal for Brian Callahan’s coaching career. This feels like maybe a Russell Wilson spot with them still giving Will Levis a chance to compete with him. If they pull off a move for Darnold I think they ship Levis to anyone who will give them a pick and if I were them in that scenario, I’m calling Sean McVay and seeing what the Rams might offer for Levis.
The Raiders could be a real spoiler here for my whole theory on Stafford or Darnold if they make a major move for either one. This felt like a Shadeur Sanders spot for sure in the draft until they hired 73-year-old Pete Carroll to coach the team. Is Carroll going to wait around for Sanders to figure it all out? That seems unlikely. This is also a Russell Wilson spot if Carroll doesn’t want to wait for a draft pick. Those two had a rough ending in Seattle but it ended up costing them both pretty heavily and perhaps they see they were better off together than apart.
The Saints have to either trade Derek Carr, possible but unlikely, or they are stuck with him. They owe him too much money to cut him and they don’t have the ability to restructure enough money to fit his dead money on their cap even if they wanted to cut him. If they trade him, it’s probably a year of Spencer Rattler before they can reset and draft a QB. The good news is a first-year head coach Kellen Moore with Spencer Rattler as his QB means they are probably picking in the top three of the 2026 draft. Of course, starting Carr probably means they are still picking in the top five.
The New York Jets have a new head coach and a new GM and they already told Aaron Rodgers to take a hike, smart move. Now they need a QB but there aren’t any that really fit for them. Cousins is an old QB coming off an Achilles tear, they already did that. Sam Darnold, nope, they did that too. They could try Russell Wilson but that feels like a strange pick. They brought in Tanner Engstrand from the Lions to be their offensive coordinator. I have a name that no one is talking about that I think could make some sense. Engstrand worked in Detroit with Jared Goff who was pretty down in his career when he went there and Ben Johnson resurrected him. There’s a guy who hasn’t been a starter in for years because he sucked the last couple times but he may still have something to prove. He’s only 32 so he still has some time to resurrect his career, think Geno Smith in Seattle style. Carson Wentz. He just spent this last year as Patrick Mahomes’ backup playing for Andy Reid. He’s taken his time as a back up and from a talent standpoint he was once a pretty good QB in Philly. I could see him being a stopgap QB for a team like the Jets who are looking to reset. Or they could start Tyrod Taylor, their current backup, and draft a second or third round QB who will replace Taylor by week 7, he’s used to that.
Seattle has Geno Smith but I’m not sure a desperate team like the Steelers couldn’t talk Mike McDonald and John Schneider into trading him. They would probably just start Sam Howell this season and draft a QB next year if they do that. The Dolphins have to sign at least a better backup than they have had at any time in Tua’s tenure. Oh, and they absolutely should draft Dillon Gabriel in round five or six, he’s Tua 2.0 but in a good way. The Colts are going to roll into the season telling everyone how much they believe in Anthony Richardson going into year three with a full healthy off season but they better sign someone like Jacoby Brissett or Jamies Winston as the backup or their season could go off the rails really quickly.
My predictions for what teams will do this off season at QB.
Minnesota- Trade for Matt Stafford, sign him to a two-year deal, let McCarthy learn.
LA Ram- Sign Sam Darnold (or trade Stafford for him if the Vikings franchise tag him), sign Darnold to a three-year deal like Baker Mayfield’s deal.
New York Giants- Strike out on all the veterans and settle for drafting Cam Ward #3 overall when the Titans and Browns pass on QBs.
Pittsburgh- Keep Justin Fields and draft a guy in the middle rounds. Maybe they end up with Jalen Milroe, similar skillset to Fields, at least their QBs would be of the same mold. This might be the sneaky Derek Carr team though.
Cleveland- Sign Kirk Cousins, he can play in Stefanski’s offense
New Orleans- they are stuck with Carr unless someone gets really desperate and then it’s Rattler
Las Vegas- Sign Russell Wilson and they draft Shadeur Sanders, it’s a two-fer. Wilson is the bridge to Sanders who isn’t ready just yet.
Tennessee- I’m running out of options. They pass on QBs in the draft and settle on signing Drew Lock and keeping Will Levis and hoping those two can suck enough for them to have a high pick again next season. Solid bet. Poor Brian Callahan, he never had a chance, the new GM gets a new coach to go with a new QB next year. It’s a vicious cycle in Tennessee.
New York Jets- Sign Carson Wentz and keep Tyrod Taylor, draft a guy like Tyler Shough in the middle rounds unless they really love Jordan Travis who sat out last season doing rehab as a rookie.
Seattle- Keep Geno Smith for this year but they draft a guy like Jaxson Dart fairly early.
Indianapolis- signs Jacoby Brissett or Jameis Winston and one of them has to start because Richardson is either bad or injured, they regret taking Richardson 4th overall in that draft.
Miami- Saved this one for last. Tua starts the year and by week three he is injured. The team drafted Dillon Gabriel in round six but the owner wants to “win now” so they sign Aaron Rodgers who no one else wanted and is in forced retirement doing the McAfee show three times a week. Rodgers gets hurt within two games and Gabriel has to start anyway and he’s running Mike McDaniel’s offense like a pro. Tua returns so they reluctantly go back to Tua because he’s making so much money. The Dolphins miss the playoffs and Mike McDaniel gets fired but is immediately hired by the Browns who fired Kevin Stefanski after the Kirk Cousins thing didn’t work out. The new Browns GM is some former 49ers exec like Ran Carthon who knows McDaniel. McDaniel immediately trades for Dillon Gabriel because the Browns are still extricating themselves from the Watson contract. The Browns owners demand the new GM trade for soon-to-be 32-year-old Tyreek Hill because they just can’t stop themselves. Not sure that offense is going to work in the Cleveland weather…wait…I’m certain it won’t. Sorry, was that too much detail, this is how my mind works.
The QB Carousel starts to spin in a few weeks when free agency starts and we can look back at these predictions and laugh…or cry if your team signs Aaron Rodgers.
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