Generally, in a draft class NFL teams will divide players into multiple tiers. The top tier is players who are elite at their position and it usually has anywhere from 8-12 players in it. In a good year it might have more, in a tough year it might have less. This year has nine by my count even though many people are discounting this draft as not great. The reason the perception of this draft is down is because none of those nine elite players are QBs, RBs, or WRs, there isn’t even a TE to get excited about. The best players in this draft are offensive linemen, defensive linemen, linebackers, a safety and a cornerback. The offensive side of the ball has plenty of solid prospects at WR and RB but they just aren’t any that really stand out. The QB class has some projects but really only two with any real chance to start early in their careers.
The nine elite players are (in no particular order); Alabama OT Evan Neal, North Carolina St. OT Ikem Ekwonu, Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum, Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson, Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Utah LB Devin Lloyd, Georgia LB Nakobe Dean, Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton and LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr. This doesn’t mean these guys will be the top nine picks, as a matter of fact I can guarantee they won’t be. Positional needs and value will make team draft others instead. Centers, linebackers and safeties are generally undervalued positions while QBs and OTs will be overvalued. However, these nine players have an above average chance to be elite players at their positions. One name I left off this list is Georgia DT Jordan Davis. He’s an excellent player I’m just not as sold on him being an elite NFL player.
This is an interesting year for a number of reasons. There is no consensus top QB and there’s a chance a QB doesn’t even go in the top 10 (at least one will but no one should). Kenny Pickett from Pitt and Matt Corral from Old Miss are the top guys but neither feels like a true franchise guy. The top players are DEs Hutchinson and Thibodeaux but the Jaguars pick first and they may decide to draft an OT to fix their protection problem for franchise QB Trevor Lawrence. Here’s my first stab at this year’s draft, I guarantee it will change by the time the actual draft rolls around.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14): Ikem Ekwonu OT North Carolina St.
I’m going to zag with this pick. Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are the consensus top players but the Jaguars have to save Trevor Lawrence after a rookie year that went completely off the rails. The line needs plenty of work and why not start at LT. Ekwonu isn’t a household name and for many he’s not even the top OT prospect but I like him a little better than Evan Neal. He doesn’t have elite length but after watching Rashawn Slater make a Pro Bowl in his rookie year with the Chargers, length may be overrated. Ekwonu has elite skills and a nasty disposition and the Jaguars line could use a little of both. In 2013 the draft was a bit similar to this one. There were no elite QBs and at the end of the day the Chiefs took Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher. Fisher isn’t a future Hall of Famer but he’s been a rock-solid starting LT for about a decade now (he starts for the Colts now). I wouldn’t argue with Neal here either and Hutchinson or Thibodeaux would make a nice pair with Josh Allen on the d-line but I like Ekwonu to make a move up the draft board.
2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1): Aidan Hutchinson DE Michigan
Okay, now I’ll get back on track with Detroit getting the guy from Michigan. The Lions need a QB but there just isn’t one to take here. Hutchinson was a beast all year (okay, not so much in the college playoff game), he’s a guy who has gotten better every season at Michigan and the Lions need help everywhere. The defense struggled in so many ways but pass rushing was towards the top of the list. Hutchinson can get to the QB and he’s an excellent all-around DE. He’s somewhere between Nick Bosa and JJ Watt in terms of his skill set and that’s pretty high praise. He will also be a tone-setter for the defense with his never-ending motor. Dan Campbell will love having this guy around and he could raise the play of everyone on that defense.
3. Houston Texans (4-13): Kayvon Thibodeaux DE Oregon
The Texans are in a major state of flux after firing head coach David Culley after one year, having no clue what to do with Deshaun Watson, and having rookie QB Davis Mills actually play well at the end of the season. They shouldn’t be looking to draft a QB so they take the best player available and it just so happens he fills a massive need. Jonathan Greenard showed some flashes of ability at DE this year but Thibodeaux can really bring the heat off the edge. Adding him might actually help Greenard be even better because he would take some focus off of him. This pick may be influenced by the head coach they hire but I would say it shouldn’t matter, Thibodeaux is an elite pass rushing prospect. He’s not as big and physical as Hutchinson but he’s a superior athlete who is just scratching the surface of his ability. I could make a case for S Kyle Hamilton or CB Derek Stingley Jr. but DE is a far more valuable position to fill here.
4. New York Jets (4-13): Derek Stingley Jr. CB LSU
The Jets defense was pretty bad this year and that’s understandable when you look at the personnel on that side of the ball. They had virtually no pass rush and they only had seven interceptions on the year. They hope Carl Lawson will return from injury next year and give them some pass rush but they don’t have an upgrade for the secondary coming off IR. Stingley burst on to the scene three years ago as a freshman on LSU’s national championship team. He was a standout then and while the last two seasons were a mess at LSU overall, he’s still really good. He’s big and has the size and athleticism every team wants in a #1 CB. He steps in as an immediate starter and improves the secondary from day one. I can make a case for Kyle Hamilton or Evan Neal but a #1 CB is hard to find and the Jets have another first round pick in this draft to address other needs.
5. New York Giants (4-13): Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh
The Giants will have a new GM, a new head coach and I’m assuming a new QB. If they don’t make a trade for Russell Wilson (they do have two first-round picks) or some other veteran, Pickett could be their guy. The Giants have to do something different because Daniel Jones isn’t the answer. Surprisingly, Pickett is a little similar in style to Jones. He’s got size and athleticism and he can be dangerous with his legs. Pickett also comes from an offense at Pitt that had many pro concepts and he understands progression reads and reading defenses. He was a four-year starter so he has a lot of experience. The one thing that might work against him for some teams is that he’s already 24 years old. That might work in his favor with the Giants because I don’t think they want to wait around for some young guy to develop. Pickett can play day one, he may never be a superstar, but he’s a solid starter. It may also be a good idea to snag him before Carolina picks sixth if they don’t have a new QB by draft day.
6. Carolina Panthers (5-12): Evan Neal OT Alabama
Owner David Tepper doesn’t seem like the type of guy to want a developmental QB and I think Carolina is the team most likely to go get a veteran. That might mean giving up this pick to someone if they want Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. It doesn’t matter who lines up at QB if they don’t fix the offensive line. If they still have this pick on draft day, they would be lucky to get Evan Neal here. Neal is a massive human being at 6-7 360 lbs. He has played multiple positions on the line at Alabama but he would slot in just fine at LT for the Panthers. The Panthers need help at multiple positions on the line so this should just be a start for them addressing the position.
7. New York Giants (from Chicago): Devin Lloyd LB Utah
If Dave Gettleman was still the GM of the Giants, I would have Tyler Linderbaum going here because Gettleman loved drafting linemen. Since I’m not sure what direction the GM/Coach combo is going in New York just yet I’m giving them Lloyd. He’s a multi-dimensional LB who can be used both inside or out. They need ILB because Blake Martinez is coming off an injury and he’s contract will be coming due. They don’t have a ton of depth inside, evidenced by the fact they used guys like Tae Crowder, Bernardrick McKinney and Reggie Ragland. Lloyd would be a massive upgrade inside and he gives them someone to use as a blitzer when needed.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Kyle Hamilton S Notre Dame
Safety probably isn’t the greatest need for the Falcons but TE wasn’t their greatest need last year either and they took Kyle Pitts. They took Pitts because he was a once-in-a-generation talent and they may see Hamilton the same way. He’s big safety at 6’4 220 lbs. but he plays the run and the pass equally well. He can come up and fill a gap in the run game as easily as he drops back deep to cover the middle. In a league where WRs and TEs are getting bigger and more athletic, Hamilton is the type of defender you want on your team. He can line up as a SS, a FS or in a LB role depending on your needs. DT Jordan Davis is also a strong possibility here as the team needs some size for their defensive line and Davis is a mountain of a man.
9. Denver Broncos (7-10): Kenyon Green OL Texas A&M
If the Panthers aren’t the most likely team to trade for a veteran QB than it’s the Broncos. This offense is ready made for someone to step in and take advantage of all the weapons they have. They don’t want to wait for a rookie to figure it out. The only other position on offense where they need help is at RT. The smartest thing the new head coach can do is convince Mike Munchak to stay on as offensive line coach, he’s done a wonderful job, especially with Garett Bolles. They do have to replace Bobby Massie at RT and Kenyon Green has experience at both guard spots and both tackle spots. He is a road grading run blocker and if they put him on the right side and run Javonte Williams behind him, that’s a winning combination in the running game. Green gives you flexibility too, which is always nice. It’s not the flashiest pick but whoever ends up as the new QB will appreciate the help up front.
10. New York Jets (from Seattle): David Ojabo DE Michigan
I seriously considered giving the Jets a second CB with their second top 10 pick but I talked myself out of it, it is not out of the question. However, Robert Saleh built his 49ers defenses around his front four and he likes to get pressure from his defensive line. Even if Carl Lawson comes back 100%, they need more help up front. Ojabo is raw, he is nowhere near ready to be a full-time starting DE in year one but he’ll be an excellent pass rushing specialist and Saleh could turn him into a nightmare for opponents in a couple of seasons. He is a supreme athlete who is still young and developing his game along with filling out his body. He has as high of a ceiling as any pass rusher in this draft, he just needs someone to show some patience. Luckily for him, the Jets have time to wait.
11. Washington Football Team (7-10): Matt Corral QB Ole Miss
Taylor Heinicke proved he’s a stop-gap at best. Corral is a guy who is even more athletic and his running ability is a real asset but he’s not just a running QB. Corral has a good arm and while he’s not the biggest guy, he understands the game and can make all the throws. I do worry a little bit about his delivery because it comes off his shoulder like a shotput and with him being less than ideal height it could mean batted balls in the NFL. Phillip Rivers had a similar delivery but he was 6’5 not 6’1. Corral’s demeanor will endear him to NFL coaches and front offices and he seems like a guy Ron Rivera will enjoy coaching. Washington has plenty of needs but starting over a QB has to be priority one. This team isn’t ready made to win quickly with a veteran QB so they should look to the draft.
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9): George Karlaftis DE Purdue
The Vikings are another team looking for a GM and coach and with Rick Spielman out after running things for so long and Mike Zimmer being there eight years, it could mean major changes to the roster. They have decisions to make on Kirk Cousins (is he worth what they are paying him, *hint*-he’s not) and can they extend Danielle Hunter, they need his pass rush. Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr and Patrick Peterson are aging defenders. How much of a reset are they looking for? George Karlaftis helps no matter what you’re doing. He is a power rushing DE who would pair perfectly with Hunter or he could be a replacement. The defense has to improve and Karlaftis would be a good start. He’s not as flashy as some of the other DEs but he’s far more developed than a guy like David Ojabo.
13. Cleveland Browns (8-9): Jameson Williams WR Alabama
The Browns have Baker Mayfield on his fifth-year option if they stick with him (they should do everything they can to find a veteran upgrade). Regardless of who lines up at QB, they need an upgrade at WR. Jarvis Landry will be 30 and in the last year of his contract and he’s a possession guy. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins and Anthony Schwartz aren’t gamebreakers. Odell Beckham never worked out as a big play guy in Cleveland so it’s time to get one. Williams tore his ACL in the National Championship game but as long as there are no complications, he’s the best WR in this draft. He’s a true deep threat with elite speed and while he’s a bit skinny, that’s what they said about DeVonta Smith and he worked out just fine. Williams takes the top off the defense and is a real threat to score every time he touches the ball. He would make Landry and the Browns’ TEs that much more dangerous underneath and take the safeties away from the line of scrimmage for the running game. If they do draft him, they really should consider getting a QB who can actually throw it deep to him.
14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9): Charles Cross OT Mississippi St.
Ronnie Stanley has missed most of the last two seasons at LT and Alejandro Villanueva proved to be a poor substitute. They don’t have a lot of depth at OT and Cross is a very good-looking young prospect. He needs some work but he has a very high ceiling. Cross is also one of the best prospects on the board and Baltimore rarely reaches for a prospect. Cross is big, athletic and agile and would really help this team moving forward. C Bradley Bozeman is a free agent but the team should have plenty of cap space to bring him back but if they don’t, this would be a prime landing spot for Tyler Linderbaum. The Ravens know they have to protect Lamar Jackson better but if they don’t like any of the o-line options here, DT Jordan Davis would make for a really good replacement for an aging Brandon Williams at NT.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami): Andrew Booth Jr. CB Clemson
The Eagles got a solid year out of Darius Slay but he’s 31 and they are tempting fate. Avonte Maddox is a nice slot corner but they need some help outside. Their secondary isn’t great as both safeties are aging but there isn’t a great safety prospect after Kyle Hamilton. Booth had a very good year for Clemson and really moved up the draft boards ahead of everyone but Stingley. He would be excellent value here and this would be a nice start to a busy first round for the Eagles, they have three picks (all within a five-pick group) assuming they don’t deal them for a different QB or to move up for a guy like Stingley or Hamilton.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis): Tyler Linderbaum C Iowa
Yes, the Eagles still have Jason Kelce and he’s still a great center but he’s going to be 35 next season and he can’t play forever. They also drafted Landon Dickerson last year and he can play center, sure, but he excelled at LG this year and could just stay there. Linderbaum could take over the RG spot until Kelce retires and then slide right in. It would be very much like the Eagles to draft a guy a year early as opposed to waiting until Kelce actually calls it quits (assuming he doesn’t retire after this season, no reason to think he would). Linderbaum is a star player on the inside and he only falls this far because teams generally don’t value centers that highly. The Eagles have three first-round picks so they can address needs and take value to really improve their team. Linderbaum uses great leverage (he has a wrestling background) and has great athleticism and movement skills inside. He’s not the biggest center you can find but then again, neither is Jason Kelce.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8): Jordan Davis DT Georgia
Davis would be a bit of a steal here considering how talented he is. He would fit wonderfully in the Chargers front and with Linval Joseph’s contract expiring and him turning 34 this year, it’s probably time to move on. Davis is a massive man and would really help keep their LBs clean as he can command a double team on the line. The Chargers use multiple fronts because of the versatility of Joey Bosa and Davis can play in any scheme. He’s a power rusher on passing downs and an immovable object against the run. The only concern with him is his conditioning and his weight. He’s 6’6 340 lbs. but he needs to maintain that size to retain his athleticism.
18. New Orleans Saints (9-8): Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati
If the Saints don’t make a move for a QB like Russell Wilson I could see Sean Payton pulling the trigger on a guy like Sam Howell. Howell has a little Drew Brees in his game and Payton can work with that. The Saints QB situation is weird with Payton’s love for Taysom Hill yet it’s fairly obvious to everyone else Hill isn’t a full-time QB. The team can’t go into the season with Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Simien and Ian Book as their only options under center. I think they find a veteran, even if it’s Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield. That means addressing either WR or CB and I really like Gardner. He was not a big recruit but he built himself into a top-shelf CB. He has great length and athleticism and the kid doesn’t back down from any challenge. The team needs an upgrade opposite Marshon Lattimore and Gardner should be that guy.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8): DeMarvin Leal DT Texas A&M
The Eagles have always prioritized their lines and here they do it again. Fletcher Cox is still a productive player but he’ll be 32 this year, he’s made a ton of money and there’s no telling how long he wants to play. Leal is an athletic disruptor on the line who can play any position. The team needs some help on the edge with Brandon Graham aging and Derek Barnett not living up to his draft billing. Leal helps everywhere and he can be the long-term replacement for Cox on the inside.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1): Nicholas Petit-Frere OT Ohio St.
Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is retiring and no they don’t have a replacement on the roster but this team doesn’t want a rookie QB. This is definitely the wrong year to be looking for a starting QB in the draft and it’s really rough when you’re picking 20th. I don’t see the Steelers getting Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson but I think they are far more likely to take a shot on a young veteran like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or maybe Gardner Minshew. I don’t see them starting over with Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis or Sam Howell. Best case scenario might be trading for Derek Carr. Whoever lines up at QB would certainly benefit from the Steelers helping out their offensive line. Nicholas Petit-Frere may not have the upside of Ekwonu, Neal or even Charles Cross but he could be a starting LT for the next decade. He has a great athletic profile and started at both RT and LT at Ohio St. He can win the LT job in Pittsburgh as a rookie.
21. New England Patriots (10-7): Treylon Burks WR Arkansas
This would be one of my two dream picks for the Patriots. Burks can actually be what N’Keal Harry was supposed to be, a big, physical WR who wins jump balls and is actually useful. It would also mean the Patriots might cut bait on Nelson Agholor after one year and Harry would certainly be gone. I would really like the Patriots to take Nakobe Dean at LB but he simply doesn’t fit Belichick’s LB profile. Belichick likes big, power LBs and Dean is decidedly undersized. He’s a fantastic LB and would be a great replacement for Dont’a Hightower but I just can’t see it happening. I would also be fine with a CB to replace Jalen Mills, who is absolutely awful or even a LT who can stay healthy, but I love Burks. He is my favorite WR in this draft.
22. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7): Roger McCreary CB Auburn
Another team in a state of flux. Gruden is out, Mike Mayock is out and Rich Bisaccia is probably out. Derek Carr could be on his way out but it doesn’t feel like this team is looking for a rookie QB. Their defense was better this year but they were still rolling out guys like Brandon Facyson, Nate Hobbs and Desmond Trufant’s corpse behind Casey Hayward at CB. McCreary isn’t a name everyone knows but he’s an excellent CB prospect and could end up being one of the better secondary players in this draft. He’s got good size, he’s a good athlete and he made plenty of plays at Auburn. This team could look for a WR replacement with Henry Ruggs heading to prison but there will be value at WR later in the draft.
23. Arizona Cardinals (11-6): Kaiir Elam CB Florida
The Cardinals certainly surprised me this season and after almost winning their division they want to continue to compete. Vance Joseph has done a wonderful job with the defense but he could use someone with a little more size at CB. Elam is a good athlete with great size at 6’2 and while he’s best at zone press man coverage Joseph uses a combination of coverages and I think Elam can fit in nicely. The Cardinals could look to get some youth on the offensive line but Elam is probably better value at this point.
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Jaquan Brisker S Penn St.
Dan Quinn has done a miraculous job with the Cowboys defense especially considering the new guys he brought in, especially in the secondary. The problem at safety is they have almost no one signed for next year. Damontae Kazee, Malik Hooker, and Jayron Kearse are all free agents to be. Brisker is a jack-of-all-trades safety, he can play strong or free and do both well. He’s an elite athlete who might just be scratching the surface of his talent at safety. Quinn may move on to be a head coach somewhere next year and the Cowboys need to improve their talent for the next guy, he might not be as good of a defensive coach as Quinn.
25. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco): Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa
The Dolphins will have a new coach but the same GM. Chris Grier has repeatedly tried to improve the offensive line and he’s going to just keep drafting guys until he gets it right. Penning is a small school prospect out of Northern Iowa but maybe he’ll have better luck than guys like Austin Jackson or Liam Eichenberg at locking down the LT job. Penning might be better off on the right side but at least he gives them more options. He’s tall, lengthy guy with solid movement skills but he is a bit stiff. The Dolphins could do worse, as a matter of fact, that’s what they’ve been doing for several years now on the line.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7): Nakobe Dean LB Georgia
The Bengals need to invest in their offensive line but the value of Dean is far too great at this point. They don’t have a lot invested in their LB corps and after improving their defensive line and the secondary in free agency this would give them a playmaker at that level. Dean is undersized but he plays like his hair is on fire and makes big plays in big moments. He wouldn’t have to step in immediately but there would be plenty of snaps for him to get on the field and make the Bengals defense a little bit better. Clearly, the Bengals need to get some offensive line help but if Dean is available, the line can wait until the next round.
27. Buffalo Bills (11-6): Garrett Wilson WR Ohio St.
The Bills could use some help on the interior of the offensive line but Garrett Wilson offers way too much value to pass up here. Emmanuel Sanders will be 35 this year and Cole Beasley will be 33. While Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie have flashed the potential to be the next guys up, Wilson could be a level up. There are other WRs to like; Chris Olave, Drake London, and Jahan Dotson are all possibilities here.
28. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams): Drake London WR USC
The Lions could look to grab a QB here like Desmond Ridder or Malik Willis but I don’t think their rebuild plan would have them reaching for someone like those guys at this point. Better to build out the roster with better players and find the QB later. They struck gold with Amon-Ra St. Brown out of USC last year and here they go back to the well. London is a completely different type of WR. St. Brown is a technician who wins with his intelligence and route-running, London is a smart football player but he’s also a huge WR. At 6’5 210 lbs. he uses his big frame and huge hands to be a master at the contested catch. He has great body control and he would be an excellent complement to St. Brown and Kalif Raymond, two smaller receivers. The only big-bodied guy they have is Josh Reynolds and they picked him up off the streets last season to fill a hole. London would make a nice red zone target and maybe pull a little coverage away from TJ Hockenson.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5): Chris Olave WR Ohio St.
It seems strange to think the Chiefs need help in the passing game but after Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce there isn’t much proven depth. Mecole Hardman hasn’t proven to be a reliable player and while a guy like Byron Pringle is serviceable, he’s not a game breaker. Olave has years of experience, he’s an amazing route-runner and he’s a better technician than Hardman, Pringle or anyone not named Hill on the Chiefs. Olave is a master at getting separation and if there is any QB in the NFL who can take advantage of that, it’s Patrick Mahomes.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4): Jahan Dotson WR Penn St.
How quickly things can change for a franchise. The Buccaneers were stacked at WR just a few weeks ago and now Antonio Brown threw his career away and Chris Godwin had a season ending injury and will be a free agent. The only sure thing left is Mike Evans. Tyler Johnson is a nice player but he’s a possession guy, they need a playmaker. Enter Dotson. Dotson might have been even better at Penn St. if he had been playing with an elite QB like the guys at Ohio St. were. He can play on the boundary and get deep but he has plenty of receiving skills to be used wherever they need him.
31. Tennessee Titans (12-5): Trent McDuffie CB Washington
The Titans could either look to replace an aging veteran CB, Janoris Jenkins, or an aging OG Roger Saffold. The CB position is harder to fill later in the draft so they will look to an interior offensive lineman later. Last year, the Titans drafted Elijah Molden at CB out of Washington so they should have some familiarity with McDuffie. Molden is a slot guy while McDuffie would be slated to play outside (although he has the ability to play inside or outside). Jenkins is expensive and will be 34 next year, it’s time to move on from the veteran.
32. Green Bay Packers (13-4): Jermaine Johnson OLB Florida St.
There’s a real possibility that Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus are not on the Packers next year leaving Rashan Gary pretty lonely at OLB. Johnson played last season at Florida St after transferring from Georgia where he was a featured defender instead of a rotational player. He excelled at Florida St. even if no one really noticed because the Seminoles were not very good. He has versatility to line up standing up or down on the line but either way, he should be rushing the passer most of the time. He is a very good run defender also, he’s not a one-dimensional player. He would be a great addition to the Packers defense, especially if they lose some of their edge defenders.
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