AFC West Draft Review
Generally, I don’t like Denver, I’ve never been a John Elway fan, but if he got the QB pick last year right he did an excellent job of building around him this year. He never found him a LT but Garrett Bolles is going to be challenged so Elway has to hope someone rises to the challenge. The Chargers were bold and when the ceiling you’ve been working with was losing in the first round of the playoffs it’s time to be bold. They betting big on Justin Herbert to be a franchise QB and they traded two picks to get the help they need at LB in Kenneth Murray. I like their draft overall but it’s going to hinge on Herbert, it always hinges on the 1st round QB pick. It’s hard to judge the Chiefs draft overall simply because they only had six picks and none of them are going to be counted on to better the team. Pretty hard to do for anyone when you’re talking about the Super Bowl Champs. The Raiders’ drafts are always interesting. I’m pretty sure Al Davis’ ghost made them pick Ruggs because he’s the fastest player in the draft. The joke is on Al though, Ruggs isn’t just fast, he’s actually a good WR. The Arnette pick was the curveball early and then having two picks back-to-back in round three and taking two WRs was unorthodox to say the least, especially when that gave you three WRs in your first four picks. The draft isn’t going to change the balance of power in the division, the Chiefs still own it. However, Denver gets closer if they were right on Lock last year, the team is better around him. The Chargers get better if Herbert shines. And finally, the Raiders might be better if Derek Carr has the arm strength to take advantage of Henry Ruggs III’s speed (that’s not very likely).
Denver Broncos
(15) Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
(46) KJ Hamler WR Penn St.
(77) Michael Ojemudia CB Iowa
(83) Lloyd Cushenberry III OL LSU
(95) McTelvin Agim DL Arkansas
(118) Albert Okwuegbunam TE Missouri
(178) Justin Strnad LB Wake Forest
(181) Netane Muti OG Fresno St.
(252) Tyrie Cleveland WR Florida
(254) Derrek Tuszka DE North Dakota St.
Immediate Impact: WR Jerry Jeudy, WR KJ Hamler, CB Michael Ojemudia
The Broncos had Courtland Sutton and not much else at WR going into this draft and they rectified that quickly using their first two picks at WR. Jerry Jeudy was my favorite player in this draft and he is going to be a star. He can play inside and outside and he can run every route with precision. He’s faster than he gets credit for but he wins with technical proficiency. KJ Hamler is a smaller receiver who probably fits better in the slot but he’ll have to play on the outside some because Jeudy does such great work inside. The Broncos are getting weapons for Drew Lock and that is hard to argue with although I would argue there were better WRs available when they took Hamler. Ojemudia wasn’t as highly thought of going into the draft process as he was after a great showing at the combine. He showed great speed, size and agility and teams took notice. The Broncos traded for AJ Bouye but then lost Chris Harris in free agency. They hope Bryce Callahan is back healthy this year but he’s better suited as the slot corner. Ojemudia has a very good chance to become the starting outside CB opposite Bouye, he only has to beat out Isaac Yiadom and that’s not going to be a huge task.
Best Value: G/C Lloyd Cushenberry III, OG Netane Muti
I’m putting both of these interior offensive linemen here because I’m not totally sure which one of them might take the RG spot and both of them were drafted lower than they were ranked. Cushenberry was the starting center for the National Champion LSU Tigers. The Broncos spent a lot of money to sign C Graham Glasgow from Detroit which means Cushenberry, who was a third-round pick will have to compete for the RG spot where Elijah Wilkinson was penciled in but now, he will likely compete with Garrett Bolles at LT. The problem is Muti who was a sixth-round pick is going have to compete for that spot too and he might be better. The only reason Muti fell to the sixth round is because he’s spent much of the last two years injured. If he’s healthy he might actually be a better fit for the Broncos offense. Glasgow is set at center and Dalton Risner seems pretty secure at LG but either one of these two could win the RG job.
Sleepers: TE Albert Okwuegbunam, OLB Derrek Tuszka
The Broncos drafted Noah Fant at TE last year and he had a pretty solid rookie year and should have a better sophomore one with Drew Lock the full-time starter. However, after Fant the Broncos have a bunch of guys that really haven’t produced over the years regardless of their talent. They did bring in Nick Vannett in free agency but the team is looking to find playmakers for Lock. Albert Okwuegbunam isn’t going to block a lot of pass rushers but he’s a dangerous athlete down the seam. When you’re taking a chance on another TE prospect it might as well be the one that’s 6’6 258 lbs., can run 4.5 and has a history with Lock. Albert O was one of Lock’s favorite targets at Missouri. Derrek Tuszka was a beast for North Dakota St.’s FBS dynasty and while he may have been a seventh-round pick this guy is an athlete who is looking to prove he belongs. He played DE in college but he will be an OLB for the Broncos. He won’t play early with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb in the starting lineup but I wouldn’t bet against him making the team and Von Miller is 31 so Tuszka is a nice investment in the future.
Overall Analysis
If you want to see a team do a draft right, this is the one. The Broncos got the best WR in the draft and did it just by waiting for him to fall to them. Jeudy will be a star but the team didn’t panic because they knew one of the top three guys would fall to them. I may disagree with their choice of KJ Hamler but drafting a second WR was a good choice when you only have one legitimate NFL starter on your roster and you want to give you franchise QB a real shot to succeed. They didn’t stop there; they added a real pass catching threat at TE to help take pressure off of Noah Fant and then later they took a flyer on another WR with some upside, Tyrie Cleveland. They also added two value picks for the interior of the offensive line to help better protect their franchise QB. They needed a potential starting CB or at least someone who could push the guys on their roster so they took a guy with a high upside that could take the job, Ojemudia. McTelvin Agim was a solid prospect for their defensive line who can back up at all three positions and both Justin Strnad and the Derrek Tuszka add depth to the LB corps.
Kansas City Chiefs
(32) Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB LSU
(63) Willie Gay Jr. LB Mississippi St.
(96) Lucas Niang OL TCU
(138) L’Jarius Sneed S Louisiana Tech
(177) Michael Danna OLB Michigan
(237) Thakarius Keyes CB Tulane
Immediate Impact: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Edwards-Helaire was a dynamo on LSU’s high-powered offense led by a generational QB, sound familiar. The Chiefs have Damien Williams at RB and he did a solid job for them last season but he’s not a game breaker. It’s not as if the Chiefs need another game breaker but the truth is you can never have too many. Edwards-Helaire wasn’t my top RB but he really fits what the Chiefs offense is all about and being the Super Bowl Champs means you can take a RB in round one and no one gets to question you.
Best Value: OT Lucas Niang
The Chiefs have Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz at OT so they don’t need a starter but they don’t have a lot behind those two and Fisher is 29 while Schwartz will be 31. Good teams know what needs they will have in the future and Fisher or Schwartz are getting older and more expensive. Niang is has some technique work to do and he’s coming off a season where he had some health issues so giving him some time would be good. He has starter potential and he can be their swing tackle now, that’s a solid pickup towards the end of round three.
Sleeper: LB Willie Gay Jr.
It’s hard to call a second-round pick a sleeper but Gay wasn’t even a full-time starter in college because he had some off the field issues but he’s a fantastic athlete who can run and cover. The Chiefs need help next to Anthony Hitchens at LB and the reason I’m calling Gay a sleeper is because I think he could be a starter sooner rather than later. He’s very modern version of an NFL LB.
Overall Analysis
This is a small draft class with only six picks but the first three could prove to be valuable pieces. Edwards-Helaire gives the Chiefs a dynamic option at RB as opposed to Damien Williams who is steady but unspectacular. Willie Gay Jr may be just what the team needs a LB. He’s an athletic guy who can run and can cover in the passing game. They are a little thin there either way. I like the value Lucas Niang brings. If he had been healthy and had the chance to develop a little more last season there is no way he makes it to the end of round three. He won’t be rushed to play unless there’s an injury and if there is, he’s a better option as the third OT than anyone else they have. They got a S, CB and an OLB who are all developmental prospects that are more likely to make the practice squad than the active roster. That’s the way it goes on Super Bowl winning teams.
Los Angeles Chargers
(6) Justin Herbert QB Oregon
(23) Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma
(112) Josh Kelley RB UCLA
(151) Joe Reed WR Virginia
(186) Alohi Gilman S Notre Dame
(220) KJ Hill WR Ohio St.
Immediate Impact: QB Justin Herbert, LB Kenneth Murray
If you think the Chargers are going to go all season with Tyrod Taylor at QB and keep Justin Herbert on the bench in their new stadium I have some oceanfront property in Iowa to sell you. Herbert is no sure thing; he might be the biggest lottery ticket pick in this draft but the Chargers are not going to sit on him long. He will have to take the job from Taylor but Taylor has made a career out of being the guy who gets his job taken away by high draft picks. The Chargers made a big move trading a second and third round picks to move back into the first round to get Murray. Murray is immediately the most talented LB on the Chargers roster and they didn’t make the bold move up to get him to watch him sit. The team has an excellent defensive line and great secondary and now Murray helps improve the middle of the defense. He’s a major candidate for defensive rookie of the year.
Best Value: RB Josh Kelley
Kelley was one of the lesser talked about RBs but that’s because he played at UCLA and they haven’t been good in a while. He is essentially a bigger version of Austin Ekeler with a similar skill set that we know works well for the Chargers offense. Getting a guy that could become your starting RB in the fourth round is a very good value pick. I think Kelley brings great value for a team that needs some depth after losing Melvin Gordon to Denver.
Sleeper: WR KJ Hill
The Chargers grabbed two WRs but I’m going with their last pick KJ Hill as the one that has a chance to help. Hill isn’t an explosive playmaker and he isn’t going to wow you with his athleticism but he’s smart and skilled and knows how to get open. Keenan Allen does a lot of his work from the slot but he’s a guy that can make big plays, Hill is the guy to do the dirty work underneath. He will work the middle of the field, use his route running ability to get open and make a nice security blanket as a third WR for whichever QB the Chargers go with.
Overall Analysis
Justin Herbert looks the part of a franchise QB and it’s understandable why the Chargers are taking their shot with him. He could be the next great QB in the league or he could be the next big bust and that is the issue with him, the range of his potential future is either exciting or frightening. He’s going to a good situation with an offense that has several good WRs, a talented TE and a RB with the type of talent that really helps out a young QB. I love the Murray pick; he could be the missing piece that takes the Chargers defense from really good to great. They haven’t had that great talent at the LB level in a while and Murray is going to be fantastic. It was a bold move and one I think will work out well. RB Josh Kelley was a really good get who helps their depth. He’s a talented kid who deserves a chance to play on a team better than UCLA has been in his time there. The two WRs, Joe Reed and KJ Hill, could both stick around. Reed is more in the mold of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams so he can back up there and I think Hill could be a huge steal. He fills a need. Alohi Gilman is a bit of a one-dimensional safety but he brings valuable depth and he should excel on special teams.
Las Vegas Raiders
(12) Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama
(19) Damon Arnette CB Ohio St.
(80) Lynn Bowden Jr. WR Kentucky
(81) Bryan Edwards WR South Carolina
(100) Tanner Muse S Clemson
(109) John Simpson OL Clemson
(139) Amik Robertson CB Louisiana Tech
Immediately Impact: WR Henry Ruggs III, CB Damon Arnette
The Raiders had one major need on offense and one major need on defense. They needed a deep threat WR and they got Ruggs who can absolutely fly. On defense they took Arnette, who can play CB but was a bit of a surprise pick as a mid-first rounder. Ruggs has elite speed and while I think Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb are better prospects Ruggs complements Tyrell Williams and Nelson Agholor very well. Arnette seemed more like a second-round pick at best and while I’m not a fan of the pick, he will play a lot. The Raiders are in desperate need of a CBs so Arnette is going to get plenty of opportunities to prove everyone, including me, wrong about his ability to be a top NFL CB.
Best Value: WR Bryan Edwards
The Raiders clearly needed WR help and they just couldn’t help themselves as they drafted three WRs. Lynn Bowden Jr. can actually be a versatile offensive piece so he’s not a pure WR but he will still play in the slot. However, it was their next pick, Bryan Edwards who is the more intriguing WR to me. Edwards was a machine at South Carolina and then he had a foot injury during the pre-draft process that hurt his stock. He’s a big WR at 6’3 212 lbs. with lots of skills and he could be a really great complement to Ruggs well into the future.
Sleeper: CB Amik Robertson
Robertson was a fourth-round pick and I was a little surprised the Raiders didn’t take a shot on Bryce Hall instead because they need plenty of CB help and Hall has more upside but Robertson is a fighter. He’s a small but feisty CB who can fill the nickel back spot and the team needs help there too. At his size he could struggle against bigger WRs but he won’t quit and he won’t back down, those are traits Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden appreciate.
Overall Analysis
The Raiders addressed their LB problems in free agency which left them with two major areas of concern, WR and CB. They attacked those deficiencies with gusto. Ruggs was an obvious first-round talent and they prioritized his skill set over Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb; I don’t agree with it but I understand it. Lynn Bowden Jr. played RB, WR and QB at Kentucky and while some are not convinced of his position in the NFL, whether he lines up at RB or in the slot he helps the passing game. Bryan Edwards was a great value pick if he recovers from his foot injury and there is no reason to think he won’t. They liked Damon Arnette best amongst the CBs left on the board when they picked, I disagreed with that one too but given the state of their CB position I can’t argue Arnette won’t play. Amik Robertson could also fill in nicely moving forward. Tanner Muse and John Simpson are two more guys out of Clemson and clearly Mayock and Gruden like Clemson players. Muse played safety in college but he might have to move to LB in the NFL given his lack of great coverage skills which is becoming more and more important at the safety position. Simpson is a guard prospect that seems a bit limited but Richie Incognito is going to be 37 this season and the Raiders need to look to the future. With some good coaching Simpson could be a starter down the line. The Raiders knew what they needed and they went at it with a vengeance. I think they passed on more talented players at WR and CB in the first round but I actually like many of their later choices, although Muse seems like a major project.
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