NFC North Draft Review
After a tough year on the field the Detroit Lions had a pretty good draft. Their first four picks should pay dividends pretty early on. Jeff Okudah is a legitimate star at CB, which they desperately need. D’Andre Swift might finally be the answer at RB they have been seeking for the last couple of decades. Julian Okwara and Jonah Jackson have starting potential. Matt Patricia needs this draft to pay off big. The Vikings were clearly looking for quantity over quality. I guess if you throw enough you know what at the wall, some of it is bound to stick. Their top four picks look damn good to me and the just by the law of averages some of the 15 guys they drafted have to work out. The Bears certainly found help with their two second-round picks but it’s a tough go when those are the only two picks you have the top 155 overall selections. I like Kmet and Johnson and they were solid value picks. I’m not even going to begin to try to understand what the Packers were doing. Trading up to take a QB, a move that is almost certainly going to piss off your future Hall of Fame QB, is questionable in and of itself. To follow that up with taking a power back who is sort of the opposite of the way the league is trending is worrisome. When you factor in that your offensive line is not really built for the power running game, it’s a downright dangerous gamble. Finally, you follow that up with drafting a TE that isn’t likely to make an immediate impact and you completely pass on any WR to help out your future Hall of Fame QB and that seems like a dereliction of duty. If Aaron Rodgers gets pissed enough to force his way out of Green Bay or simply retires than the GM and head coach are staking their very young careers on Jordan Love being the next….um…Aaron Rodgers.
Chicago Bears
(43) Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
(50) Jaylon Johnson CB Utah
(155) Trevis Gipson OLB Tulsa
(163) Kindle Vildor CB Georgia Southern
(173) Darnell Mooney WR Tulane
(226) Arlington Hambright OL Colorado
(227) Lachavious Simmons OL Tennessee St.
Immediate Impact: TE Cole Kmet, CB Jaylon Johnson
It’s not as if the Bears didn’t try to address the TE and CB positions in free agency but Jimmy Graham is past his prime and Artie Burns never had one. Cole Kmet was the best TE prospect in a less than impressive TE class. He is big and fast and he certainly looks the part of an NFL TE. He wasn’t as productive at Notre Dame as his skill set would have you think but he should get more opportunities with the Bears. Jaylon Johnson is one of the better CBs in the draft and I think he will be a starter sooner rather than later. After Kyle Fuller the team really doesn’t have much at the position. Beating out Burns should prove fairly easy unless Chuck Pagano and the Chicago defensive staff have some magic potion to unlock Burns’ potential.
Best Value: CB Jaylon Johnson
Beauty was in the eye of the beholder when it came to the CB position after Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson. Johnson was in the mix as the third guy yet somehow, he fell to 50th overall. There are a number of teams that will be kicking themselves for passing over Johnson for a different CB. I like Johnson and he landed in the perfect situation where he won’t be handed the job but he will go out and earn it.
Sleeper: WR Darnell Mooney
Mooney is a skinny WR at only 175 lbs. but he has a lot of playing time under his belt and he’s proven to be a playmaker. The Bears are in pretty good shape at WR with Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Riley Ridley and even Cordarrelle Patterson but Mooney is a versatile guy who could become their fifth WR, hang on to a roster spot while he tries to fill out a bit and he offers the inside/outside versatility to backup several positions for now. Down the road his playmaking prowess gives him a chance to become a real asset in the passing game.
Overall Analysis
When your draft consists of no first-round picks, two second round picks and then you don’t pick again until the fifth round it’s hard to have a great draft. I love the Cole Kmet and Jaylon Johnson picks, they got two guys that can help right away. Both guys will have to earn their playing time because there are veterans ahead of them but that just means they will be challenged and that’s not a bad thing. I do think the Gronkowski comparisons are unfair to Kmet, no one is Gronk but Gronk. I think a better projection for Kmet is Kyle Rudolph, and Rudolph is a pretty good TE. When your third pick doesn’t come until #155 overall it’s hard to find true impact players but the Bears traded their first-round pick in the Khalil Mack trade, it would be hard to believe they wouldn’t pull that trigger every time. Everyone else is a developmental guy and I’m not real sure the two seventh round lineman stick around but at that point in the draft you’re just hoping to find a diamond in the rough. My only issue is that the team didn’t really find any legitimate candidates to replace retired OG Kyle Long. They have some run of the mill veterans but they benefited greatly from Long’s presence. When they took Trevis Gipson in round five there were still some legitimate starting caliber OGs left (Netane Muti, Nick Harris and Jon Runyan just to name a few).
Detroit Lions
(3) Jeff Okudah CB Ohio St.
(35) D’Andre Swift RB Georgia
(67) Julian Okwara DE Notre Dame
(75) Jonah Jackson OG Ohio St.
(121) Logan Stenberg OL Kentucky
(166) Quintez Cephus WR Wisconsin
(172) Jason Huntley RB New Mexico St.
(197) John Penisini DT Utah
(235) Jashon Cornell DL Ohio St.
Immediate Impact: CB Jeff Okudah, RB D’Andre Swift
Okudah walks into training camp as the best CB on the team and this team has Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman, two legitimate NFL veteran CBs. Okudah checks all the boxes of a #1 CB and he will be tested in a conference where he plays Allen Robinson, Adam Thielen and Devante Adams twice a year. Swift was arguably the best RB in this draft and his overall game is outstanding. The team still likes Kerryon Johnson but he can’t stay healthy and Swift is the better overall talent. I think Swift has the starting RB job by week four and he’s the best RB on the Lions’ roster since Barry Sanders. And in case you’re wondering Barry Sanders retired in 1998.
Best Value: DE Julian Okwara
Okwara was on his way to being a first-round pick until he got hurt during the season. Okwara’s loss is the Lions’ gain. He’s a very talented player and it was a pretty cool scene when he got drafted to the Lions on Friday night because that also happens to be where his brother Romeo plays. The bad news is Julian is good enough to take his brother’s starting spot at DE opposite Trey Flowers. Getting a guy that has first round ability in the early third round is very good value.
Sleeper: OG Jonah Jackson
People don’t usually get too excited about interior offensive linemen so I’m calling Jackson my sleeper. He’s not the prettiest looking blocker but he is highly effective. The team has veterans Joe Dahl and Oday Aboushi penciled in at OG. Jackson could beat out either one of them to be a starter and Matthew Stafford would appreciate the help up front and so will D’Andre Swift (and Kerryon Johnson if he stays healthy).
Overall Analysis
Detroit had a really excellent draft with their first four players capable of being starters right away or at least pretty early in the season. Okudah is a star at CB and Swift will take the starting job sooner rather than later. In a pass happy NFL, a top CB is a necessity and while the Lions traded one away this off season (Darius Slay) they drafted another one. Kerryon Johnson is a solid back but Swift has immense talent and will likely be more durable. Okwara is a bit of a ‘tweener, a little undersized to be pure DE but not quite versatile enough to be an OLB. He went to the perfect place because Matt Patricia learned from Bill Belichick that versatile defenders make the best defenders. Okwara should excel under Patricia. I think Jonah Jackson steals a starting job immediately and Logan Stenberg has some holes in his game but he’s a solid prospect who brings some versatility as a backup interior lineman. WR Quintez Cephus and RB Jason Huntley are going to have to earn roster spots by playing special teams and bringing something to the table others on the depth chart don’t. The Lions have Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola and Geronimo Allison as their top four WR, Cephus has one good trait, his physicality. If he shows that as a useful trait he sticks as the fifth receiver. At RB the team now has Swift, Johnson, Bo Scarbrough and Ty Johnson. Huntley is small but fast, can he make that skill more useful than others on the depth chart? Penisini and Cornell have a chance to stick around because the Lions are not all that deep on the defensive line. Penisini is a good run-stopper at DT while Cornell has the versatility to back up at both DT and DE.
Green Bay Packers
(26) Jordan Love QB Utah St.
(62) AJ Dillon RB Boston College
(94) Josiah Deguara TE Cincinnati
(175) Kamal Martin LB Minnesota
(192) Jon Runyan OL Michigan
(208) Jake Hansen C Oregon
(209) Simon Stepaniak OL Indiana
(236) Vernon Scott S TCU
(242) Jonathan Garvin DE/OLB Miami
Immediate Impact: RB AJ Dillon????
I’m not completely certain how quickly Dillon will make an impact but he has the best shot to do it early. Love is going to be the backup for the foreseeable future unless the Packers picking him completely sends Rodgers into a tailspin and he feels like forcing a trade out of town. I also don’t see Deguara moving ahead of Mercedes Lewis or Jace Sternberger. Dillon brings a different skill set than Aaron Jones but he isn’t going to take Jones’ starting spot this year. Dillon will be the short yardage back and insurance against Jones and Jamaal Williams getting injured.
Best Value: DE/OLB Jonathan Garvin????
Garvin isn’t really big enough to line up at DE in the Packers 3-4 defense and he’s not really quick enough to be a highly effective pass rusher as an OLB. He is a talented kid he just seems to be without a defined position. I think he makes the team and for a seventh rounder that’s pretty solid. This is also my way of saying they didn’t really get anyone beyond where they should have.
Sleeper: OL Jon Runyan
Runyan has a ton of experience from his college days but he played OT at Michigan and he really isn’t suited for it in the NFL. He should spend this year transitioning inside and working to gain strength to be more effective. The Packers are aging on the interior and I think they probably experiment with Runyan at both OG and OC. He showed great athleticism at the combine but he generally doesn’t look as athletic on the field. If he can translate that to the field, he can be good.
Overall Analysis
If I didn’t make this clear I don’t like this draft overall. The Packers were certainly looking towards the future since most of their top picks won’t contribute much this year and the later ones might not at all. The Packers had the most talked about first-round pick when they traded up to get QB Jordan Love. They can control Love for up to five years on his first contract but there is no guarantee Aaron Rodgers is done before that. They may run into the Tom Brady/Jimmy Garoppolo situation. It looks like we won’t know Love’s value for a minimum of 3-4 years. I do like AJ Dillon as a RB but I question where took him, I think there were better all-around RBs available and not a lot of teams are looking for power backs that don’t add much else. Also, with Jones and Williams around Dillon isn’t looking at a lot of carries, that limits his value. The Packers must really have loved something on Deguara’s film because they took him over quite a few TEs that were rated higher and I’m not sure why. They got some LB depth with Kamal Martin and Jonathan Garvin which they needed and they got interior offensive line depth with Runyan, Jake Hansen and Simon Stepaniak, which they also needed. I’m pretty sure they don’t want to count on any of those guys this year but they can hope at least some of them develop. I would say my biggest concern with this draft and I’m fairly certain Aaron Rodgers would agree with me is, where is the help at WR? Any help would have been appreciated coming from the deepest WR draft in modern NFL history.
Minnesota Vikings
(22) Justin Jefferson WR LSU
(31) Jeff Gladney CB TCU
(58) Ezra Cleveland OT Boise St.
(89) Cameron Dantzler CB Mississippi St.
(117) DJ Wonnum DE South Carolina
(130) James Lynch DL Baylor
(132) Troy Dye LB Oregon
(169) Harrison Hand CB Temple
(176) KJ Osborn WR Miami
(203) Blake Brandel OL Oregon St.
(205) Josh Metellus S Michigan
(225) Kenny Willekes DE Michigan St.
(244) Nate Stanley QB Iowa
(249) Brian Cole II S Mississippi St.
(253) Kyle Hinton OL Washburn
Immediate Impact: WR Justin Jefferson, CB Jeff Gladney, OT Ezra Cleveland, CB Cameron Dantzler
The Vikings lost important players this off season and they did a nice job replacing most of them here. WR Justin Jefferson was drafted to step into the role vacated by Stefon Diggs who was traded to Buffalo. Jefferson isn’t exactly like Diggs but he’s a really outstanding WR who can play any of the positions and catches everything. He’s even used to being overshadowed by a teammate after playing opposite Ja’Marr Chase last year. He should complain less than Diggs about getting the ball. CBs Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler should step in next to Mike Hughes to fill the void created by the free agent defections of Trae Waynes and Mackenzie Alexander and Xavier Rhodes being cut. They also picked up an OT in Ezra Cleveland who has loads of potential and should work very well in the Vikings offense.
Best Value: OT Ezra Cleveland
Cleveland was trending up the draft boards late because he’s got great size and his athletic ability makes him a natural LT. He needs some work on his technique and to work on his strength but he can play early. The Vikings are looking to improve their line and one way to do that might be to put Cleveland in at LT and move Riley Reiff inside to LG to replace Pat Elflein who has struggled the past couple of seasons. Cleveland will work well in the zone blocking scheme the team prefers.
Sleeper: DE Kenny Willekes
The Vikings lost Everson Griffin this off season and they need someone to play opposite Danielle Hunter so he doesn’t face triple teams. They drafted three defensive linemen and while Willekes was the last one they took, if I had to bet on one, I’m betting on him. Willekes started out as a walk-on at Michigan St. and proved to be an All-Conference player by the end of his career. He’s not the most athletically gifted guy but no one will out work him and he never stops coming.
Overall Analysis
Generally, when teams go into a draft with 12 picks as the Vikings did this year, they look to package some of them together to move up but the Vikings went the other way. They turned 12 picks into 15 this year and added some for next year. I’m not sure it’s a great strategy because the odds of 15 rookies making your roster is pretty low. The first four picks were spot on, good players that fit major needs and will help immediately. I also really like the James Lynch and Troy Dye picks as they add really good depth on the d-line and at LB respectively. DE DJ Wonnum and CB Harrison Hand also could make the team as depth pieces in need areas but they are developmental projects. WR KJ Osborn might find it a little more difficult to find space on the roster. After that, QB Nate Stanley has a shot to unseat Jake Browning as the third QB but it would take a herculean effort to take the backup job from Sean Mannion, he’s a trusted veteran presence. Kenny Willekes is a pretty solid bet to at least contribute as a high-end backup and a special team’s guy. The rest of the picks were some potential depth pieces for the offensive line and safety spot but are longshots for the roster.
The Hott Read 