Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Todd Bowles is back as the head coach but this team is changing offensive coordinators again after Liam Coen got the Jacksonville job.  The new OC is Josh Grizzard who was on the staff last season so they hope he can keep things going with Baker Mayfield and this offense.  The defense returns most of their guys and Bowles knows how to put that side together with his DC Larry Foote.  The Bucs keep winning this division so it’s hard to pick against them especially when the rest of the division has some serious questions. 

Baker Mayfield reignited his career two years ago under Dave Canales and then kept it going under Liam Coen.  I believe there is a rule that says Mayfield can’t have an offensive coordinator for more than one season so he gets Grizzard this year.  He’s so used to it at this point I can’t even hold it against him.  Any passing game that has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Tez Johnson should be good.  Evans is the definition of consistency, and high-level consistency. Godwin is coming back from injury but he’s done it before so I’m not counting him out.  McMillan stepped in for Godwin as a rookie last year and held his own, but now he’s hurt so they need Godwin back.  Egbuka was a surprise pick in round one but he’s a very talented player who can fill in at any WR position, and he will step in for Godwin for now.  Tez Johnson is a small but talented player they may need in the slot until Godwin and McMillan get healthy.  TE Cade Otten is a underappreciated member of this offense too. 

The running game was taken over last season by RB Bucky Irving.  No one is mistaking Irving for Saquon Barkley but he put together a very good season as a rookie last year.  He gives them a more dynamic runner than Rachaad White so that’s helpful.  The offensive line was one of the healthiest units last year and they were excellent.  LT Tristan Wirfs is arguably the best LT in football and unfortunately, he’s starting the year hurt.  He had knee surgery in July and they are hoping he makes it back early in the year.  LG Ben Bredeson was an afterthought starting last year but had a good season and they re-signed him.  C Graham Barton came in as a rookie and took the starting job immediately and never looked back.  He’s an ascending player.  RG Cody Mauch had his best season and RT Luke Goedeke did the same.  It’s a good unit and if Wirfs is healthy, they have potential to be great. 

The defense returns almost entirely intact, that’s both a good thing and a bad thing.  The defense wasn’t elite but they are solid across the board. The one problem is they are getting a little older in some key spots and it’s not clear they improved any deficiencies.  DEs Logan Hall and Calijah Kancey are good and they do their jobs.  Neither one is a superstar but both can be disruptive.  NT Vita Vea is 30 and you can tell he’s not quite what he was in his prime but he’s still one of the better NTs in football.  The pass rush needs some juice but all they did was add Haason Reddick at OLB.  He didn’t really play last year after some contract issues and he’s also 30.  Yaya Diaby is the other OLB and he’s young and could develop into a better player.  Lavonte David is 35 and returns as a starter.  He’s a Bucs legend at this point but he’s definitely lost a step.  SirVocea Dennis is the likely other staring ILB.  Dennis is young and athletic so he’s got that going for him.

The secondary was an issue last year with the CB position one where they were looking for upgrades.  Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum are the starters but they need some help.  They took a second-round flyer in Benjamin Morrison from Notre Dame who’s coming off an injury.  He’s an excellent talent but it’s a hip injury he’s coming back from so that could be tricky.  They also drafted Jacob Parrish to give them some depth and he can start at nickel.  Tykee Smith was the nickel last year and he was very good but they need him to play more safety this year.  Antoine Winfield Jr. comes back for one safety spot but they don’t have someone locked into the other one.  If Parrish can give them a nickel back then Smith will slot in at safety. 

Atlanta Falcons

Raheem Morris goes into his second season as the head coach but he’s already made a coaching change.  He’s moving on from Jimmy Lake at DC and he hired Jeff Ulbrich who was the DC and then interim head coach of the Jets last season.  It’s once again a change in defensive philosophy for this unit so it could be a bumpy ride.  Zac Robinson is back at OC with Michael Penix Jr. installed as the QB.  They still have Kirk Cousins as their backup QB and I’m sure that’s not weird at all. 

Penix stepped in last year and started the final three games after the wheels came off for Cousins.  Cousins wasn’t bad to start the year but it started to go bad around November and he threw nine picks in his last five starts.  Penix looked better in his three starts and the team decided to move on but failed to find a trade partner for Cousins.  Cousins isn’t the type of guy to rock the boat but if Penix has some early season struggles, things will get testy in Atlanta.

Penix has the luxury of having a legitimate WR1 in Drake London, he was excellent last season.  Darnell Mooney proved to be solid #2 also but he’s starting the year injured with a shoulder issue.  Ray-Ray McCloud III did fine as the third WR last year but they have no depth and McCloud isn’t really a proven commodity.  TE Kyle Pitts will once again tantalize everyone with his athleticism; the question is will he actually do anything with it.  They need his potential playmaking to add a dimension to the passing game. 

Speaking of dimensions, RB Bijan Robinson had a breakout season with over 1400 yards rushing and he had 61 catches.  He’s the engine of the offense and he’ll keep defenses honest for Michael Penix Jr.  Robinson runs behind a sold offensive line that was set to return all five starters from the end of last season.  LT Jake Matthews is 33 but he’s as reliable as they come.  LG Matthew Bergeron is a good player next to him.  RG Chris Lindstrom is one of the best guards in the league and you know that because you never hear about him.  C Ryan Neuzil returns after stepping in for the injured Drew Dalman last year.  Dalman got a big contract in free agency but Atlanta didn’t even try to re-sign him because they have confidence in Neuzil. The only problem is at RT where Kaleb McGary went down late in camp and is out for the season.  Elijah Wilkinson is penciled in to start because they have other injuries there too.  It’s going to be an issue if they don’t find a suitable replacement. Michael Penix Jr. is a left handed QB so the RT is his blindside protector and entrusting that to Elijah Wilkinson, Michael Jarrell, or Jack Nelson seems like a bad idea.   

The biggest issue with the Falcons is going to be the defense.  Once again, they are changing defensive coordinators and once again it means a change in the scheme and that means some guys already on the roster are odd fits for the new defense.  The biggest issue is in the front seven and most importantly it’s the defensive line.  DT Ruke Orhorhoro probably works fine inside at tackle and not as a nose tackle or 3-4 end.  DE Zach Harrison was drafted to a 3-4 end and he’s not a good fit as a 4-3 DE or as a DT but they are playing him at DT.  David Onyemata has played in various fronts in his career so he can probably make it work but he’s also going to be 33 this year. 

At DE, they signed Leonard Floyd in free agency, drafted Jalon Walker with their first-round pick, and then traded up to get James Pierce Jr. in the first round too.  Walker is practicing exclusively as a pass rusher even though he was a LB at Georgia.  They are hoping Pierce can live up to the trade value they gave up for him.  They also have Arnold Ebikite who was drafted a few years ago to be an OLB.  All four of these guys are undersized DE but they hope to get some edge rush out of them.  Walker and Pierce are especially important given they were first-round picks.    

At LB they are counting on free agent Divine Deablo to man the middle.  He was an underwhelming player for the Raiders; they hope a new system unlocks something.  Kaden Ellis is an excellent pass rushing LB even though he isn’t an OLB.  He’ll likely play the weakside in the new defense but they would be wise to find ways to blitz him and let his natural pass rushing ability shine. 

The secondary is an interesting group.  CB AJ Terrell is not one of the elite cover guys in the league but he’s definitely a CB1.  He holds up well against most of the top WRs.  The other outside CB spot is likely Mike Hughes, he’s a replacement level guy.  They continually try to make Clark Phillips III that guy but he should probably be slot guy.  Dee Alford is their slot guy and he’s fine except they drafted Billy Bowman Jr. who seems to have won that spot.  SS Jessie Bates III is one of the best safeties in football but it’s been a revolving door opposite him and he could use a good partner.  Enter, Xavier Watts, a rookie out of Notre Dame who is a better football player than he is an athlete and that should be music to Bates’ ears.  Watts could help level up this secondary if he plays like I know he can. 

Carolina Panthers

For the first time in a while the Panthers aren’t going in to the season as the worst team in their division and that’s thanks to head coach Dave Canales.  He benched Bryce Young early last season and even though a weird injury to Andy Dalton put Young back in at QB, it jump started something in Young.  Give Canales credit for finding ways to help Young succeed.  Now it’s up to him to keep the offense moving forward and for Ejiro Evero to fix the leagues worst defense.  They got him some help, the question is, is it enough? 

Young seemed more confident after he got his starting job back last season.  They did things that took advantage of his abilities and some of the guys around him stepped up.  Xavier Leggett wasn’t a star but he made some plays. Even Jalen Coker found some success and made the team think he can actually be a part of the future.  It was still obvious the team needs a WR1 and that’s why they drafted Tetairoa McMillan in round one.  McMillan gives them a legitimate outside playmaker who is some sort of cross between Tee Higgins and Mike Evans if he reaches his potential.  He makes Young’s life easier just by being on the field.  The team did trade Adam Thielen back to Minnesota and then they lost Jalen Coker to an injury to start the year.  They brought back Hunter Renfrow after cutting him initially.  He gives them a slot guy until Coker returns.  TE isn’t a great position for them but they can still hope Ja’Tavion Sanders develops into something.  He’s only 22 and going into his second season.  For now, Tommy Tremble holds down the spot. 

The running game really improved last season with a career year out of Chuba Hubbard and the improvements on the offensive line were noticeable.  Hubbard finally got his chance to be the main back when Miles Sanders failed to be the guy and they never got Jonathan Brooks going.  Hubbard had a great year after the team fixed the interior of the line with new guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt.  They added a level of physicality they didn’t have before and that helped Austin Corbett at center.  LT Ikem Ekwonu played a lot better and RT Taylor Moton was his usual consistent self.  Keeping the running game going is paramount because it takes pressure off Young at QB.  That’s why the team signed Rico Dowdle to be the back up RB, he had over 1000 yards last year in Dallas.  They also drafted Trevor Etienne to give them a pass catching third-down back and even more depth. 

The defense was atrocious last year and it all started up front.  It didn’t help that their best DL Derrick Brown was hurt last year.  He should be back healthy and that will help but that wasn’t the whole issue.  That’s why they are making wholesale changes across the entire front seven. Brown gets two new starters next to him on the line with Bobby Brown III at NT and Tershawn Wharton taking the other end position.  Those guys are upgrades for sure and having Brown at NT should help the run defense. 

They didn’t stop there; the LB corps gets a facelift too.  They signed OLB Patick Jones II to pair with DJ Wonnum as their pass rushing ends but they also drafted Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen on day two of the draft.  If that doesn’t juice the pass rush, nothing will.  On the inside they signed Christian Rozeboom to pair with Trevin Wallace as they replace Josey Jewell and long-time stalwart Shaq Thompson at ILB.   

The secondary got some help but still needs some work.  They signed Tre’von Moehrig from Las Vegas and he’s a big upgrade.  The other safety spot is still a work in progress with Nick Scott, Demani Richardson and maybe rookie Latham Ransom as possibilities.  At CB, Jaycee Horn got a huge contract extension and now they need him to be a top-flight CB who stays healthy.  He has the talent, now he needs to show up every week and play to it.  Mike Jackson is just a placeholder at the other spot while they have high hopes for Chau Smith-Wade in the slot. 

New Orleans Saints

Kellen Moore gets his first shot to be a head coach and unfortunately for him, this could be the worst team in the league.  It may largely depend on what they get out of the QB position but I’ll get to that in second.  One of the more curious choices or Moore as first-time head coach was picking Brandon Staley as his defensive coordinator.  Failed head coaches get hired as coordinators all the time but Staley’s defenses for the Chargers were bad. It will be an interesting year in New Orleans.

For now, Spencer Rattler seems to have held off rookie Tyler Shough at QB.  I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.  Either one is likely overmatched.  Rattler was pretty bad last year when he stepped in for the injured Derek Carr but Shough hasn’t been good enough to beat him out.  The team drafted Shough in the second round hoping to catch lightening in a bottle but it doesn’t look good at this point. 

There are some talented players on this offense if they’re healthy.  WR Chris Olave is a legitimate WR1 but he’s been dealing with concussion issues and he’s one bad hit away from being done.  Rashid Shaheed missed most of last season with a meniscus tear and they hope he rebounds with the same speed he brought before.  They signed Brandin Cooks as a solid veteran presence after the WR group turned into a MASH unit last year.  They turned over the back half of the WR corps when they traded for DeVaughn Vele from Denver and picked up Trey Palmer after he was cut from Tampa Bay.  Solid additions but it might not matter. TE Juwan Johnson is a solid pass catcher but Taysom Hill is going to be 35 and is coming off an injury too so they shouldn’t count on him too much. 

The offensive line had injuries last season too and they need everyone to get healthy and settle into their new positions.  They drafted Kelvin Banks and are installing him at LT which means Taliese Fuaga is flipping over to his more natural RT spot.  That in turn moves last year’s RT Trevor Penning to LG, a position he’s never played.  He’s probably better suited for the interior but it will be a transition.  Both C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz had various injuries and missed games last season.  They need both to stay healthy this year and play their best football.  RB Alvin Kamara missed a few games last season but he was still easily their best offensive weapon.  He’s been a mainstay on this offense for years and while this is his age 30 season, they need him to be the main piece again.  They have more depth at RB but no one who moves the needle like him. 

The defense underwhelmed last year and they are downgrading from Dennis Allen’s defense to Brandon Staley calling things.  They are running out the same front as they have been using with the only addition up front being Davon Godchaux, a DT the Patriots jettisoned. Godchaux brings some size on the inside but he’ll be 31 this year and his play wasn’t great last year.  They still have Bryan Bresee but he hasn’t had any kind of breakout season yet.  DE Nathan Shepard and the Saints legend himself Cameron Jordan return too.  Jordan is 36 and this group doesn’t inspire confidence.  They re-signed Chase Young as one of the edge rushers and it will be interesting to see how he fits in Staley’s defense.  Carl Granderson also returns at edge and we will see how it works for him too. 

Again, they are counting on an aging veteran at ILB in Demario Davis, he’s also 36, he was still good last year but that age cliff could hit at any moment.  Pete Werner is the other ILB and we will see if Staley can get something out of a young guy like rookie Danny Stutsman.  The secondary is facing almost a whole facelift.  They traded Marcus Lattimore at last year’s trade deadline, they let Paulson Adebo leave in free agency, and both starting safeties are gone.  That means Kool-Aid McKinstry goes from backup CB to CB1.  They signed veteran Isaac Yiadom as the other starter, that’s not great.  Alontae Taylor returns as the nickel, he’s fine.  The safety spots should be fine after they signed Justin Reid from Kansas City and then picked up Julian Blackmon later in free agency.  The safety spots have a chance to be good if those two play their usual football.  The depth in the secondary are CB Quincy Riley and S Jonas Sanker.