Buffalo Bills

The Bills are a team that are so close to being a Super Bowl team they can taste it.  They aren’t in the business of making big moves right now, they are simply trying to tweak the spots they need to get over the hump.  Sean McDermott returns with his coaching staff intact and having Joe Brady return at OC instead of losing him to a head coaching job is a win for this team.  Brady has unlocked the running game which has enhanced the offense overall and made Josh Allen that much more frightening for the league. 

Josh Allen is the engine of this offense both in the passing game and the running game.  He’s coming off his first MVP award and it probably won’t be his last.  Allen makes the Bills a contender as long as he’s playing.  WR Khalil Shakir had a good year and may be on the cusp of a breakout season.  He’s not a real WR1 but he’s an effective player who Allen seems to trust.  WR Keon Coleman had a solid rookie season with some ups and downs but he got a lot of reps and that’s the important part.  They signed Josh Palmer from the Chargers to give them a deep threat and while he’s not great, he’s a better deep threat than anyone else they have had.  They have been hoping TE Dalton Kincaid can break out but he hasn’t been consistent enough to overtake Dawson Knox, a guy Allen trusts. 

The running game has gotten a lot better under Joe Brady’s direction and it’s mostly because he has found the keys to unlocking James Cook.  Cook is not the most efficient player but he did well last year and scored a lot of TDs.  It was definitely an outlier season for him but he’s part of the running game they use well.  Allen still gets plenty of yards rushing and they are often some of the most important rushing yards but they need the whole run game. The Bills also have one of the most underappreciated offensive lines in terms of national recognition.  LT Dion Dawkins is very good but the rest of the individuals are usually not discussed amongst the best at their positions.  LG David Edwards, C Connor McGovern, RG O’Cyrus Torrence, and RT Spencer Brown just quietly go about their jobs and I’m sure Josh Allen recognizes them for their work. 

The defensive front returns intact with DE Greg Rousseau, DE AJ Epenesa, DT Ed Oliver, and DT Daquan Jones all back.  The team did look to add some depth but may have misfired a bit.  DE Joey Bosa is already hurt and veteran additions Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht are both suspended to start the season.  Now they will have to hope rookies DE Landon Jackson, DT TJ Sanders, and DT Deone Walker can all be ready to start the year as depth pieces.  LBs Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard return too with only Dorian Williams as depth.  They did sign long-time Panthers LB Shaq Thompson hoping he still has something left but that may be asking a bit much.  He played for McDermott when McDermott was the DC in Carolina a long time ago. 

In 2022 the Bills took Kaiir Elam at CB in the first round of that draft and he turned out to be a bust and was traded to Dallas this off season.  That same year they took Christian Benford in the sixth round and now he’s their top CB and he’s very good.  Their secondary fell apart when he got hurt last year.  This year they took CB Maxwell Hairston in the first round and were hoping he would take the CB spot opposite Benford and run with it, unfortunately, he’s already hurt and starting the season on IR.  Just in case though, they took CB Dorian Strong in the sixth round this year, it’s a very strange coincidence.  They also brought back Tre’Davious White but he looked pretty cooked last year for the Rams, for now, he’s starting as they wait for Hairston to return.  Maybe they should just see if Strong is the next Benford. Taron Johnson is their nickel and he’s excellent. The safeties are a work in progress with second year guy Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp set to start. 

New England Patriots

Putting the Patriots second in this division is less about how good I think the Patriots will be and more about how bad I think the Dolphins and Jets might be.  Also, I am optimistic that the change from Jerod Mayo to Mike Vrabel will have a substantial effect on the record of the Patriots.  Vrabel is an excellent head coach who brought in a capable offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels and the overall changes to the coaching staff cannot be overlooked.  Last year’s coaching staff was a travesty and Vrabel brings credibility to the franchise.

On offense the entire focus is finding ways to support the development of QB Drake Maye.  Even under the worst of circumstances (his o-line and WRs) last season, Maye showed why they have confidence in him.  He has all the skills necessary to be a true franchise QB and they just have to give him a pathway. The WR corps last season was horrid.  They signed Stefon Diggs to be the WR1 for Maye.  Diggs is 31 and coming off an ACL repair but he was fully cleared to practice to start training camp so that’s a good sign.  The team also drafted Kyle Williams in round three and he’s a talented playmaker with some speed, something this team sorely needs, he is however, a project.  WR Demario Douglas was a Maye favorite when he was healthy last season and is the starter in the slot, they also kept undrafted free agent WR Efton Chism III just in case Douglas misses time again.  While they wait for Kyle Williams to progress they will count on free agent Mack Hollins to be steadying force and I would keep an eye on Kayshon Boutte.  Boutte became the one guy Maye started to count on at the end of last season when Douglas was out.  He could be a sleeper for this unit. 

The other major issue was the offensive line which was one of the three worst in the league last year.  LT was a massive problem so the team drafted Will Campbell fourth overall and while his arms may not be ideal length, Campbell is a massive upgrade on the blind side.  They team also signed C Garrett Bradbury and RT Morgan Moses as veteran free agents.  Bradbury isn’t great but he’s competent which puts him about five levels above last year’s centers.  Moses is 34 but he’s a mainstay at RT and Demontrey Jacobs, last year’s starter, was the worst starting OT in the NFL, and thankfully they cut him at the end of camp.  RG Michael Onwenu had a tough year even though he’s the best o-lineman they had.  He will be more than thankful to have competent players lined up around him.  LG Cole Strange returned late last season after an injury and played guard and center but he couldn’t even hold on to a roster spot, he’s gone too.  He was one of the last epic draft failures of Belichick’s era.  Rookie Jared Wilson is penciled in as he starting LG for now.  He was drafted as a center but isn’t ready for that responsibility.  He seems like their best option at LG which means it’s two rookies protecting Maye’s blindside, that’s concerning. It’s still less concerning than last year’s plan. 

The running game will start with Rhamondre Stevenson but his hold on the starting job is tenuous at best.  He has had fumbling problems in his career and Mike Vrabel is going to value ball security.  They team drafted Treyveon Henderson in round two and he’s an electric playmaker.  He isn’t really built to be a high-volume RB but he can handle a large part of the load if Stevenson proves unreliable.  Henderson is going to take the job eventually, it’s a matter of when not if.    

As bad as the offense was last season the defense was just as atrocious and they didn’t have the promise of Drake Maye to hold on to.  The closest thing was CB Christian Gonzalez, I’ll get to him in a minute.  The team spent most of their free agent money on defense and up front they signed the most expensive DL they could in Milton Williams.  Williams was excellent for the Super Bowl Champion Eagles last season and the good news is he’s 26 and could get even better.  They hope they get to pair him up front with Christian Barmore who missed last season with blood clots.  Barmore has been healthy this preseason and he and Williams will be a really tough duo at DT.  Those two are going to flank NT Khyiris Tonga, another free agent signing.  Tonga is a run stuffing machine, something they sorely needed.

The Patriots will mostly play a 3-4 defense but Keion White gives them some versitility.  He had a good rookie year two years ago and last year was so-so with that coaching staff.  He’s a good player that Vrabel and new defensive coordinator Terrell Williams will get the best out of.  The team signed former Titan Harold Landry to be one OLB because he was a long-time starter for Vrabel in Tennessee.  The other spot looked like it was White’s to lose but he seems to have lost it to K’Lavon Chaisson, another free agent.  Chaisson resurrected his career with a solid back half of last season in Las Vegas.  He’s looked good in camp and has earned his spot.  Anfernee Jennings is back just in case they need a run-stuffing edge guy. 

The ILB spots needed some updating with the new defensive scheme Vrabel wants.  Belichick’s defenses were built with old school big, physical LBs like Juwan Bentley.  Vrabel wants speed and skill.  Christian Ellis was thrown into the lineup last year due to injury but wasn’t a great fit for it.  He’s a far better fit for Vrabel’s defense.  They team also signed Robert Spillane who is definitely built to be a part of this new unit.  Spillane has asserted himself as a leader in the middle and he’s going to be a favorite for fans and the coaches.   

If the defense has anything close to its own Drake Maye in terms of a guy will great upside, it’s CB Christian Gonzalez.  He has top five CB in the NFL type talent.  He’s big, physical, and can run.  He’s sat out most of camp with a hamstring issue but hopefully he’ll be ready to start the year.  The team decided to complement him with Carlton Davis in free agency.  That gives the Patriots two big, outside man coverage corners, perfect for this defense.  Marcus Jones will look to stay healthy to be the slot guy.

Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers were the starting safeties of this team for a couple of years but they were Belichick safeties, big, physical, and slow.  They didn’t cover the way Vrabel wants his safeties to cover.  Dugger has been demoted and Peppers was released just after rosters were cut down.   It looks like the Patriots are going with rookie Craig Woodson and holdover Jaylinn Hawkins.  Hawkins wasn’t physical enough for the Belichick/Mayo defenses but he works just fine for Vrabel.  Vrabel may have learned under Belichick but he’s been far more progressive in updating his style of defense to work against modern defenses.  LBs and safeties have to be fast and be able to cover. 

New York Jets

The Jets are upgrading the coaching staff with Aaron Glenn coming in as head coach and after watching the Jets last year I can’t imagine OC Tanner Engstrand and DC Steve Wilks could be worse than last year’s coordinators.  The Jets have been a wandering ship for a few years and now they have a whole new front office and coaching staff, that can’t be a bad thing.

You don’t have to feel great about Justin Fields as a QB to think he’ll still be better than Aaron Rodgers was last season.  Rodgers played like a guy who didn’t want to be on the team or play football anymore.  Fields is an elite athlete who can at least make the running game great and he and WR Garrett Wilson should find a rhythm pretty easily.  They played together in college and Wilson was clearly not on the same page as Rodgers last year.  He has the ability to be a true WR1, it’s the rest of the receiving corps that could be an issue.  Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard are likely the next two guys, that’s not ideal.  They are also counting heavily on rookie Mason Taylor to give them legitimate play at TE. 

The running game suffered from an underwhelming season from Breece Hall and the fact that no defenses feared the passing game.  Fields probably doesn’t make teams fear the passing game but he adds a running element from the QB position that will change defenses.  They need Hall to rebound from a lackluster year and if he doesn’t he risks losing his job to Braelon Allen who had a good rookie season last year.

The offensive line is getting much younger and likely healthier.  Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are gone at OT as Olu Fashanu takes over at LT and rookie Armond Membou takes the RT job.  There will be growing pains with two young guys but these are two very talented young guys.  The interior of the line has plenty of talent with LG John Simpson, C Joe Tippmann, and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker.  If they are healthy (looking at you AVT) they are good there.  Former Lions assistant Tanner Engstrand becomes a first-time play calling OC for this team.  If he can design a run game anything like Ben Johnson did in Detroit, this offense will at least run the ball well.

Aaron Glenn will have his hand on this defense but he also brought in a veteran defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks.  Wilks’ tenure with the 49ers was short and unsuccessful two years ago but he’s been good before, he’s a better fit here.  The front is built around DT Quinnen Williams who is a star.  He needs more help inside than he got last year and they signed Derrick Nnadi in free agency but he was so bad in camp they traded him back to the Chiefs.  Then they traded for Harrison Phillips from Minnesota and are plugging him in next to Williams. They also got new backups, Byron Cowart and Jay Tufele.  The ends will be Jermaine Johnson, returning from injury and Will McDonald IV.  McDonald is still an undersized speed rusher but they don’t have much behind these two.  The good news is LB Quincy Williams is excellent and gives them a dynamic playmaker, he’s a great blitzer.  MLB Jamien Sherwood stepped up last season and played really well, they rewarded him with a new contract.    

The secondary is going to have some new blood and the new guys they hope Aaron Glenn can get the best out of.  They signed Brandon Stephens to replace DJ Reed and that’s a downgrade looking at how those two played last season.  Stephens may need to fend off rookie Azareye’h Thomas to hold one CB spot.  S Andre Cisco steps in at free safety and he’s a talented player.  CB Sauce Gardner is the CB1 and while his second season wasn’t as good as his rookie year, he’s still one of the better CBs in football.  SS Tony Adams is penciled in as the starter but he may have to hold off rookie Malachi Moore.  The nickel spot is Michael Carter II but they have some depth with Isaiah Oliver having experience too. 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins went 8-9 last year and the vibes weren’t great on that team.  Tua missed six games but at this point you have to assume he’s going to miss some time.  Mike McDaniel lost some of his luster as an offensive genius and the QB moves they made were to sign Zack Wilson and draft Quinn Ewers in the round seven, not sure that helps if Tua goes down again.  They didn’t do much on defense and what they did do, might not help. 

Tua is the straw that stirs the drink but in five years he’s played a full season once.  Last year the passing game fell off a cliff and Tyreek Hill had about half the receiving yardage he had the year before.  He’s 31 and guys who rely on their speed the way he relies on his speed can hit an age cliff quickly.  I don’t think he’s done but I don’t think he’s getting better.  They need Jaylen Waddle to step up to the WR1 role and I’m not sure that’s really him. They signed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to be their third WR but technically he’s still behind Malik Washington.  They have tried this a couple of times, getting some middling free agent for the role and it hasn’t worked yet.  They traded TE Jonnu Smith just before camp, he was one of their best pass catchers last season and they replaced him with Darren Waller, who’s coming out of retirement.  Waller wasn’t very good for several years before he retired so that’s not great. 

De’Von Achane is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands and they did a great job of using him last year in the passing game.  They nearly tripled his receptions and he was great.  The problem came with them doubling his carries and his yards/carry dropped nearly in half.  He’s not built to carry the ball 250 times a season, last year he was just over 200 carries.  That is probably where they should keep him.  They were hoping Jaylen Wright or Alexander Mattison could take some of those carries but both of them are hurt, it’s a theme with Miami RBs.  That leaves rookie Ollie Gordon to be the guy.  I like Gordon but he had a very rough year at Oklahoma St. last year and I’m not sure what he’s going to be.    

The offensive line is getting a new look.  LT Patrick Paul will become the full-time starter with Terron Armstead retiring.  They signed RG James McDaniels and drafted LG Jonah Savaiinaea in round two.  These three add some size to the line they need but will that actually make them better in McDaniels’ speed-based system. Paul is really a first-time starter and Savaiinaea is a rookie, that’s a whole new left side of the line.  Aaron Brewer is undersized at center and it will help him to have the heft surrounding him but he’s really just a guy.  RT Austin Jackson has been their most consistent lineman for a few years and he was hurt during camp and didn’t play much. 

The defense is where I can see some real problems for this team.  The defensive line has Zach Seiler, who’s really good, but other than that, they need rookies to really show up.  Kenneth Grant was their first-round pick and he starts immediately, he actually looked good in the preseason.  He has some holes in his game so he’s going to be challenged against NFL offensive linemen.  NT Benito Jones is big man in the middle but he’s not great.  Rookies Jordan Phillips and Zeek Biggers should get every chance to play. 

The pass rush comes from the OLBs.  Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips were injured last season and were non-factors.  They need both of them back and healthy or it’s going to be a long year.  Chop Robinson had a solid season as a rookie but they can’t put that much on him again. They don’t have any depth if Chubb or Phillips go down and they were so desperate they signed Matthew Judon, that’s a bad sign. ILB Jordyn Brooks is fine but it looks like Tyrel Dodson is just holding off Willie Gay Jr at the other spot, not sure that’s a good sign. 

The secondary is where things get really dicey.  The team traded CB Jalen Ramsey to the Steelers for S Minkah Fitzpatrick and while that helps the safety group a bit, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Ashtyn Davis are the other safeties, that’s not good.  Fitzpatrick improves the talent at safety but he’s a guy who’s known to freelance on the back end and if the talent around him is suspect, that’s going to cause issues.  The top players on the depth chart at CB are Storm Duck, Jason Marshall Jr., Rasul Douglas, Jack Jones, and Ethan Bonner.  Storm Duck was a rookie free agent last year, his backup Ethan Bonner is a rookie free agent from this year.  Douglas was signed after training camp and Jack Jones was only signed a couple of weeks ago.  Jason Marshall Jr. is the nickel and he was a fifth-round pick, this last April.  It’s rough and if the pass rush isn’t outstanding, this team isn’t stopping any passing game in the league.  The Dolphins were smart to sign Douglas, I thought they should have signed him a month ago.  They also picked up Jack Jones off the scrapheap, he might be okay. They did make one pickup that could really help, maybe, potentially. They claimed JuJu Brents off waivers after the Colts cut him. Brents has been injured most of the last two seasons. However, if he gets healthy, he might be the most talented CB on the roster.  This secondary is in for a long year unless this team gets 80 sacks.