Tag: football

College Football Coaching Carousel

The college football coaching carousel is already insane and it’s only going to get worse. There are more firings to come and there will be big time coaches moving around opening more jobs as one goes from one job to another.  I’m going to take a shot at predicting who ends up at each spot, I’m aware it’s a fool’s errand but here I am.  A few notes to keep in mind, Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule have signed extensions with Indiana and Nebraska so they are not leaving their current roles.  I’m not including Joe Brady, the Bills offensive coordinator because I don’t think the top jobs would wait until after Buffalo’s season and he’s going to be an NFL coaching candidate. 

I’m going to start at the bigger jobs to look at how the dominos fall as one coach moving opens other jobs.  There are eight jobs in the Power 4 conferences (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) currently open; LSU, Florida, Penn St., Arkansas, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, UCLA, and Stanford.  I think Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida St. are all going to also be open eventually.  In this exercise I don’t think Wisconsin or Michigan St. will fire their coaches and I’ll get to them later.  The one other Big Ten job that could come open is Maryland depending on how their season ends, and it could realistically go either way.  The breakdown for me is LSU, Florida, Penn St., Auburn, and Florida St. would be the top five. Kentucky, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St., UCLA, and Stanford would be the next six. Then I’ll get to the positions that come open from coaching taking some of those jobs.  Hope you like dominos.  There’s a solid group of head coaches from the Group of 6 teams (G6) and there are a few top level coordinators in the Power 4 who will get jobs this cycle.  Let’s get started.

LSU

The is the top job on the market, sorry to Penn St. and Florida but LSU has the advantage.  Three of the last four coaches at LSU; Nick Saban, Les Miles, and Ed Orgeron, all won National Championships.  Obviously, Brian Kelly is the one who didn’t but the fact that Orgeron and Miles did should be proof that LSU has advantages.  Saban is a legend, it’s not strange he won a title there, Miles and Orgeron are not great coaches, I’m not even sure they were good coaches, but they managed to win National Championships at LSU.  Florida has won National Championships but it took legendary coaches like Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer to win there, mere mortals have watched their careers wither in Gainesville.   

LSU has unbelievable instate talent with minimal instate competition for that talent.  At Florida you’re competing with Florida St. and Miami, plus other schools like UCF, USF, FAU, and others are poaching the depth in the state from you.  Penn St. does have some instate competition from Pitt but they also have Ohio St., Michigan, and others trying to pick off talent from Pennsylvania which is not as talent rich as Louisiana.  

Financially, LSU, Penn St., and Florida are not going to be that much different so it comes down to the situation.  The one issue that could hold back LSU is the governor of Louisiana getting involved.  I don’t think he was wrong to want to limit AD Scott Woodward after he’s given out two of the biggest buyout contracts in college football history (Kelly at LSU, and Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M).  However, Woodward does have a solid track record overall hiring coaches. He poached Kim Mulkey for LSU’s women’s basketball program and hired Jay Johnson as the baseball coach.  They just announced Woodward is out as AD and that’s not going to be helpful.  Firing him was unnecessary, I think I would have just kept him out of the contract negotiations. By the way, he wasn’t the only person who would have had to sign off on the contract for Brian Kelly. 

The Pick: Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss)

I’m going with them winning the Lane Kiffin sweepstakes over Florida.  They will outbid Florida but also offer the highest upside for Kiffin.  There’s a feeling Kiffin wants to get back to Florida after his stint as FAU’s head coach and he does have a certain Florida vibe, maybe it’s the visor.  However, Kiffin has always looked for the next step and I think he will see the path to a National Championship is easier at LSU than Florida and that’s his choice.  This would lead to an opening at Ole Miss; I’ll address that later. 

Runner up: Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri).  If Kiffin takes Florida, LSU pivots quickly. 

Disaster candidate: Jimbo Fisher (currently collecting buyout money from Texas A&M).  If they strike out on Kiffin, Drinkwitz, and a couple of other names, would Woodward have called up his old buddy from Texas A&M?  Fisher was the offensive coordinator at LSU in 2003 when Saban led them to a National Championship.  Somehow, I don’t think the LSU fanbase would be happy with him being the pick.  With Woodward out this is much less likely but he does still have old ties to LSU.

Sneaky Good Idea: Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator). Something tells me he’s going to be a good head coach.

Florida

Penn St. and Florida are the next best jobs and I’m addressing the Florida job next because it’s linked to LSU and I don’t think there’s ton of overlap with Penn St.  Florida’s number one choice is Kiffin, if they lose him to LSU, it’s a more wide-open field.  Drinkwitz is a possibility but he’s not a slam dunk and I think they could lose Drinkwitz to another team while they pursue Kiffin.  Drinkwitz might prefer being a different SEC school’s number one choice instead of feeling like he’s taking Kiffin’s leftovers.  I’ll get to Drinkwitz below.  USF Alex Golesh is a name to watch here but I’m not sure he’s a big enough name for the Gators.  They just did the “hire the hot group of five” (or six now) coach with Billy Napier and it didn’t work.  They will aim higher and if they miss on Kiffin and Drinkwitz, there is one major conference coach who will crawl over broken glass for the Florida job and not care if he’s the third choice or the 15th choice. 

The Pick: Jedd Fisch (Washington)

Fisch bounced around in his coaching career as an assistant for many years before finally landing the Arizona job, then he quickly jumped to Washington two years ago.  He rebuilt Arizona quickly; he then took over a decimated roster after Kalen DeBoer left Washington for Alabama and he has them looking pretty good in year two.  He went to school at Florida and started his career as a GA there and he would be ecstatic to make Florida his destination job.  I’m not sure Fisch has ever stayed anywhere more than three years but he would certainly hope to change that with a move to Gainesville.  He’s not the sexiest hire but he might be the right one for Florida.  This would open the Washington job and there’s an excellent candidate out there for that one. 

Runner up: Well, Fisch is really third on my list for them but is it’s not him they could go with Golesh or maybe they make a run at Rhett Lashlee at SMU.  I do think the Florida fans may want to temper their expectations.

Disaster Candidate: James Franklin.  Sorry but Franklin is a great recruiter who isn’t a great coach. There is too much pressure at Florida and Franklin would crumble under it. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Clark Lea (Vanderbilt). He should be high on everyone’s list but I’m not sure Florida would hire Vanderbilt’s coach.   

Penn St.

Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule already used this job to get extensions and raises at their current schools and other coaches may do the same.  The pressure to win at Penn St. is enormous and the fact they fired James Franklin after he basically won ten games every year is crazy.  However, they weren’t wrong to fire Franklin if they want to truly compete for National Championships, he had taken them as far as he could.  What Penn St. needs is a real coach, not just a guy who can recruit and then tries to hire coaches to coach.  They need the guy who can raise the level of play of the great players they can get.  Great players have gone to Penn St. and played well but they are usually guys who were 4- or 5-star recruits and they don’t actually get better they’re just good players to start with.  Even if you are a top recruit, it doesn’t mean coaching can’t make you better.  Guys like Nick Saban and Kirby Smart routinely get 5-star guys but they also develop them into the best player they can be, that was not Franklin. The guy they need isn’t the flashy name but he’s the right coach. 

The Pick: Matt Campbell (Iowa State)

I hate giving Iowa St. credit in any way but Matt Campbell is an excellent football coach.  He routinely takes two-star and three-star recruits and makes them way better players.  What he could do with the upper-level recruits Penn St. can get would be scary.  He’s always had good coordinators but Campbell is a legitimately good football coach himself.  He’s rebuffed many opportunities in the past but Penn St. is one of the premiere coaching jobs in the country, it’s in an elite conference, and there is no chance Iowa St. can compete financially with the Nittany Lions.  It’s time for Campbell to make the move and competing in the Big Ten is where he belongs.  It would be ripping out the hearts of Iowa St. fans again if Penn St. takes a great coach from them.  To all those Penn St. fans thinking he’s not a big enough name, just look at your wrestling program and remember where Cael Sanderson came from, you’re in good hands. 

Runner up: Jon Sumrall (Tulane) Sumrall is arguably the best G6 coach on the carousel this season, he’s been excellent at both Troy and Tulane.  He’s headed to the SEC in my opinion but Penn St. would be lucky to have him.  I would be more than happy to see him stick around Tulane until Kirk Ferentz retires, he would be at the top of my board. 

Disaster candidate: Brian Kelly (former LSU). There’s a thought that Kelly’s “failure” at LSU (he did win a lot just not enough for them) was because he wasn’t a culture fit.  His terrible Louisiana accent notwithstanding, Kelly’s personality was his downfall. Some would call him gruff, that’s the polite way to put it, he’s a jerk, always has been.  I don’t think his personality would endear him to the Penn St. faithful.  He needs a lower profile place where they can hide his personality.

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison).  He’s a great coach from the region who took over James Madison after Curt Cignetti and has kept them winning.  He won at Holy Cross before that.  He’s not a big enough name but he might just be a really good coach and someone is going to hire him.  They may be missing out.

Auburn

Auburn has high hopes for their football program and they keep grasping at straws trying to find the solution at head coach, it has not gone well.  Hugh Freeze is in over his head and they need another new coach.  They went way outside the box when they hired Bryan Harsin from Boise St. a few years ago, that was a disaster. Then they overcorrected with thinking Freeze was the right fit.  They should try to hit one straight down the fairway, a good coach who can fit anywhere. 

The Pick: Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)

Remember I said Drinkwitz might prefer to go somewhere that’s he’s the first choice and not the consolation prize.  I think Auburn should put on the full-court press and get him before Florida takes their eye off Kiffin and before Penn St. gets any farther down their list.  Drinkwitz won at Appalachian St and he’s winning at Missouri.  He’s been a great evaluator of talent both with players and coaches and Auburn needs someone to get everything there aligned.  Auburn has a strange history with coaches and I might actually tell Drinkwitz to look elsewhere but Auburn can be a giant and they are going to make it worth his while.  Missouri can compete with the salary but they don’t have the same advantages Auburn has in the SEC since Missouri is an SEC school that’s not actually in SEC country. 

Runner Up: Jon Sumrall (Tulane).  I’m not sure this is really a runner up because I think Sumrall would prefer a different SEC destination, but Auburn can think he would choose them. 

Disaster candidate: Ed Orgeron (unemployed interim coach specialist).  If Drinkwitz goes to Florida, and Sumrall goes to (SPOILER ALERT) Kentucky, maybe baggage at Auburn hurts them with some of the up-and-comers and they end up with Orgeron (this is never happening, Auburn donors are far too involved to let this occur).

Sneaky Good Idea: Glenn Schumann (Georgia defensive coordinator).  Not sure how sneaky it is, his name has come up for openings but he’s a coordinator so I’m not sure they would even consider it.  The last Georgia defensive coordinator to take a head job was Dan Lanning so there’s that.  Auburn could do worse, actually, they usually do.    

Florida St.

The Seminoles are basically letting Mike Norvell finish out the season but he’s a dead man walking right now and it’s understandable.  The last two seasons have been a disaster.  They are going to have to pay a major buyout for Norvell so they won’t likely be shopping for a coach in the same tax bracket as these other schools.  Florida St. doesn’t have the deep pockets of a Big Ten or SEC school but they are a major brand and they hope to be in one of those conferences one day.  They need a good coach that isn’t extra expensive and can turn this program back around. 

The Pick: Clark Lea (Vanderbilt)

This is a tough one because Lea has built Vanderbilt into a real football program and he’s an alumnus.  It’s going to take a special job to get him to move but Florida St. is a very prominent program.  Vanderbilt is in the SEC and Florida St. is not but Vanderbilt isn’t in the business of investing in football the way Florida St. is long-term.  It would suck for him to leave but this is the time to go.  Lea wasn’t exactly lighting it up at Vanderbilt until Diego Pavia transferred in and now Pavia will be done.  It’s the right time to go and he can say he’s leaving Vanderbilt in a better place than where he found it. 

Runner up: Alex Golesh (South Florida).  A very good alternative if they can’t get Lea.

Disaster candidate: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).  This is not a slight on Silverfield, he’s proven to be a good head coach.  He’s a disaster as a Florida St. candidate only because Mike Norvell was hired from Memphis and Silverfield replaced him there.  No way Florida St. can sell the idea of hiring the next guy from Memphis.  It’s a dumb reason but it does matter to them.  

Sneaky Good Idea: Jeff Brohm (Louisville).  I’ve heard Brohm’s name come up and getting him to leave his alma mater Louisville will be even harder than getting Lea to do so.  However, Brohm is an excellent coach and if Florida St. pulled this off, hats off, that would be incredible. 

Virginia Tech

Virgina Tech needs a reset after striking out with Brent Pry.  They may make a play for Shane Beamer at South Carolina but following in the legendary footsteps of his father seems like a bad idea.  Beamer may want to find a soft-landing spot after his tough year at South Carolina but he would be better off not going back to Va Tech. 

The Pick: James Franklin (former Penn St.)

This one feels like it has been in motion since the minute he was fired.  Franklin is still a young coach and has the energy it will take to fix Virginia Tech and he’s got something to prove.  It would be a solid hire for the school, don’t overthink it. 

Runner up: Billy Napier (former Florida).  I haven’t heard his name for any openings but he’s a good coach and they could do worse. 

Disaster candidate: Brian Kelly (former LSU). He qualifies as a disaster at anywhere that has actual expectations and where he has to talk to people.

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison). Again, a job in this region would be a good fit and he’s a good coach.

Kentucky

This job isn’t open yet but it looks like Mark Stoops could be gone any day now.  It’s a massive buyout but this program is slipping and they can’t afford to let it slip any farther.  Also, they have the opportunity to bring home a homegrown future coaching star and if they don’t act now, he’s getting a different job. 

The Pick: Jon Sumrall (Tulane). 

Sumrall is at the top of any list of coaches coming from the G6 teams.  He was a LB at Kentucky and was an assistant there before he became the head coach at Troy.  He parlayed Troy into Tulane and he’s been excellent there.  If the Wildcats don’t hire him now, someone else in the SEC or Big Ten will and then it will be very hard to get him.  He might be Auburn’s top choice, if Kiffin leaves Ole Miss, Sumrall’s on that list too.

Runner up: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis) or Alex Golesh (South Florida).  I’m not sure Kentucky will be able to spend on a sitting head coach from a Power 4 school so if Sumrall turns them down, they look to the other top G6 guys. 

Disaster candidate: Anyone not name Jon Sumrall.  If they pay Mark Stoops’ ridiculous buyout, they better be sure Sumrall is taking the job.  The owe Stoops something like $38 million and it’s all due within 30 days of his firing, that’s insane.  Kudos to Stoops’ agent.  Sumrall would be a homerun hire for them, anyone else is a disappointment. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Don’t put a one lump sum payment buyout on a coach’s contract like this ever again. Especially for a guy who showed you his ceiling was winning nine games every few years.  Stoops deserves credit for rebuilding Kentucky football but he was well compensated the entire time and now his reward for tanking the program is winning the lottery.  That’s bad business.

Arkansas

It was time to move on from Sam Pittman and Bobby Petrino is not the answer.  Don’t be stupid and go looking for someone outside your comfort zone like you did when you hired Bret Bielema.  Stick to someone you know. 

The Pick: Rhett Lashlee (SMU)

Lashlee is an Arkansas native who built a good SMU team and took them to the college football playoff last year.  He’s an excellent coach and there’s no better fit.  I say it all the time, don’t over think it.  SMU has deep pockets to compete with any offer but let’s not pretend Arkansas can’t beat it. 

Runner up: Eric Morris (North Texas). He’s a Texas guy who could recruit to Arkansas pretty well and he’s a QB savant. 

Disaster hire: Billy Napier (former Florida).  I don’t think Arkansas fans would take too well to Florida’s reject. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Collin Klein (Texas A&M offensive coordinator).  Klein is a young coach who has been an offensive coordinator at Kansas St. and Texas A&M and they would be getting a guy on his way up.  It might be a big jump but he might be worth the risk. 

Oklahoma St.

Mike Gundy was there for a very long time as both a coach and a player.  He defined Oklahoma St. football for a generation, now they need to move on.  A new, young offensive minded coach would look good in Stillwater. 

The Pick: Eric Morris (North Texas)

Morris is only 40 and he hasn’t been coaching that long in college but he’s been a head coach at Incarnate Word and at North Texas, he was also an offensive coordinator at Washington St. when they were still in a major conference.  Oklahoma St. isn’t the most attractive job out there but it has its advantages.  If you get a guy like Morris who can recruit in Texas and find you a QB, that’s a great place to start.

Runner up: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC).  Same reasons as the Arkansas job although it’s not as big of a leap. 

Disaster candidate: Ben Arbuckle (Oklahoma OC). Arbuckle is 29 and not ready.  He’s had success with John Mateer at Washington St. and some at Oklahoma but he shouldn’t be getting this big of a job. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Just hire Morris, this isn’t hard.   

UCLA

The Bruins are flailing along and trying to find a direction.  Tim Skipper is the interim after they fired Deshuan Foster but they need to look for someone with some real head coaching experience to lead the program.  That’s not going to be easy with an athletic department that isn’t likely to commit a ton of resources.  They could go with a current coordinator but I think they should look for the guy looking for a soft landing somewhere new. 

The Pick: Dave Aranda (Baylor)

Aranda has had Baylor up and down over the years and generally just as soon as it looks like they may fire him, he has a solid year.  Maybe it’s time to get off that particular rollercoaster.  Aranda was born and raised in California and UCLA may just be desperate enough to want a guy needing a lifeline.  Aranda cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator so there’s even the possibility he might be willing to keep Jerry Neuheisel as his offensive coordinator.  Aranda is a good coach needing a reset and UCLA needs a coach who’s willing to accept a job that may not be perfect. 

Runner up: D’Anton Lynn (USC defensive coordinator).  Lynn was formerly the defensive coordinator at UCLA and may have been the guy who replaced Chip Kelly if he hadn’t just left for the USC DC job.  He would also potentially keep Neuheisel so he’s not the worst choice. 

Disaster hire: PJ Fleck (Minnesota).  His name routinely gets floated for this job but I don’t think the UCLA administration would find it fun to have Fleck around complaining about not getting enough support from the school.  He’s not exactly the type of guy to suffer in silence. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Tosh Lupoi (Oregon defensive coordinator).  Great recruiter and a guy looking for a chance to be a head coach.  He too could keep Neuheisel.  It’s not a dealbreaker that a new coach has to keep him but Neuheisel seems to be beloved in that locker room and loves UCLA.  He’s done a good job taking over and making the offense fun again since the purge of Deshaun Foster and other coaches.  Don’t kill the vibe. 

Stanford

Frank Reich is the interim coach that Andrew Luck hired to hold down the fort after they let Troy Taylor go over the summer for non-football related reasons.  I don’t have a good feel for this job because the only name mentioned I’ve seen is Tavita Pritchard who is the Ravens QB coach.  He’s a former Stanford QB and coached there too.  He’s really young and doesn’t have a ton of experience.  Luck is in charge of hiring the next coach and he would be wise to look at UCLA’s hiring of Deshaun Foster and steer clear of hiring a guy just because of his ties to the school.  There are a couple of good coaches not linked to Stanford that Luck should look into. 

The Pick: Sean Lewis (San Diego St.)

Lewis is an offensive mastermind and was an excellent coach at Kent St. and if you know anything about Kent St. football you know how impressive that was.  He made the mistake of leaving there to be Deion Sanders’ OC at Colorado.  That didn’t go well but he was smart enough to get out before it hurt his stock.  He got the San Diego St. job and has done well.  He runs a unique offense and Stanford probably needs to do something a little different to compete.  It a tough situation with their academic standards and the weird placement in the ACC but Stanford can be a good team. 

Runner up: Ken Niumatalolo (San Jose St.). Niumatalolo was once the head coach at Navy and ran the triple option there but now at San Jose St. he runs a wide-open spread offense.  Talk about a guy who could give Stanford something unique.  He’s an excellent coach but he is 60 years old and may not want the headache of a rebuild at a tough place like Stanford.

Disaster hire: Tavita Pritchard (Baltimore Ravens QB coach).  I’m not knocking Pritchard as a coach, by all accounts he’s doing a good job.  However, he’s 36, never been a head coach, and this is a heavy lift.  The Deshaun Foster/UCLA thing would scare me away from this.  Maybe if you hire Lewis, he succeeds and moves on in a few years and then Pritchard comes back after being at least a coordinator in the NFL or college.  Give it a little time.

Sneaky Good Idea: Jonathan Smith (Michigan St.) Smith was a rising star at Oregon St. and now in his second year at Michigan St. he might get fired.  He’s a west coast guy and maybe getting back that way would be good for him.  I don’t think it’s a good idea for Michigan St. to give up on him this early but he may be like Dave Aranda and looking for a soft-landing spot. 

Maryland

This is another job that isn’t open and depending on how they finish, it may not.  Mike Locksley has been a big-time recruiter in his career as an assistant but as a head coach, he’s been hit and miss.  His coaching hasn’t been great at Maryland.  There are a lot of great players in the area and he hasn’t taken advantage.  He has a very good freshman QB this year but they may only go 5-7, 6-6, or 7-5 at best.  He’s had plenty of time and Maryland has a chance to get a good up-and-coming coach. 

The pick: Charles Huff (Southern Miss)

Huff is a Maryland native and he’s coached at places like Alabama, Penn St. and even the NFL.  He was the head coach at Marshall and took over at Southern Miss this season.  He’s won at both places and he would be a great get for Maryland.

Runner up: I don’t think there’s a great second choice.  Huff should be the guy if they move on.

Disaster hire: Brian Kelly (former LSU).  I’m just taking another shot at Kelly. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison). Seriously, do I have to say it again? He’s a good coach.

The Domino Jobs (their coach left for a better opportunity)

Ole Miss

Lost: Lane Kiffin

Hire: Pete Golding (Ole Miss defensive coordinator). 

Golding has been a good coach at Ole Miss and was a good DC at Alabama before that.  He would likely have to wrestle with Kiffin to keep some of the staff but he’s their best shot at keeping the Kiffin thing going. 

Other options: Alex Golesh (South Florida), Jon Sumrall (Tulane)

Missouri

Lost: Eli Drinkwitz

Hire: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).

Silverfield might be the runner up for a number of jobs because he’s good but maybe not ready for the upper level of the Big Ten or SEC.  Missouri is a good next step for him.  Better program, better conference, and working towards the bigger jobs.

Other options: Alex Golesh (South Florida), Colin Klein (Texas A&M OC)

Iowa St.

Lost: Matt Campbell

Hire: Jason Eck (New Mexico).

He has done a great job everywhere he’s been and he does have ties to AD Jamie Pollard.  Eck was an offensive lineman and started his coaching career at Wisconsin when Pollard was there.

Other options: Nathan Scheelhaase (LA Rams Assistant Coach), Tim Polasek (North Dakota St.)

SMU

Lost: Rhett Lashlee

Hire: Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator). 

Stein spent a lot of time coaching in the state of Texas and he would be a great candidate to step in and keep the offense humming at SMU.  He’s a future coaching star. 

Other options: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC), Jason Eck (New Mexico)

Washington

Lost: Jedd Fisch

Hire: Ryan Grubb (Alabama OC). 

Grubb was Kalen DeBoer’s right hand man during Washington’s run to the National Championship Game a couple of years ago.  He’s a great offensive mind for college (his year with the Seahawks went poorly, not all his fault).  And he clearly liked the area so maybe he will stay longer than DeBoer or Fisch did.

Other options: Will Stein (Oregon OC), Tosh Lupoi (Oregon DC)

Tulane

Lost: Jon Sumrall

Hire: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC)

Klein is a young coach at 36 and while there’s a very good chance, he may end up the head coach at Kansas St. someday, Chris Klieman is only 58 and Klein should get some experience as a head coach.  If Sumrall moves up to a bigger job, that’s the last two Tulane head coaches who moved up (Willie Fritz became the Houston head coach).  This is a good job to have.

Other options: Charles Huff (Southern Miss), Billy Napier (former Florida)

Memphis

Lost: Ryan Silverfield

Hire: Tim Cramsey (Memphis OC)

The last time Memphis lost their head coach they replaced Mike Norvell with Silverfield.  Here they do it again by promoting Cramsey who is their offensive coordinator.  It’s not the sexiest hire but he’s a solid coach. 

Other options: Brian Brohm (Memphis OC), Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), Brian Hartline (Ohio St. OC) 

Vanderbilt

Lost: Clark Lea

Hire: Bob Chesney (James Madison)

I mentioned Chesney for a couple of jobs but I haven’t given him one yet.  He would be an excellent choice for Vanderbilt.  He isn’t working with the biggest budget at JMU and Vanderbilt would be similar.  Chesney can do less with more.  He should be getting one of these jobs.

Other options: Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), Mike Denbrock (Notre Dame OC)

Baylor

Lost: Dave Aranda

Hire: Alex Golesh (South Florida)

Golesh should also be getting a promotion and heading to Baylor and bringing his offensive acumen to a place like Baylor seems fitting. 

Other options: Eric Morris (North Texas), Will Stein (Oregon OC)

The 3 Other Jobs (Someone will take them)

Oregon St

They fired Trent Bray after less than a season and a half after promoting him when Jonathan Smith left for Michigan St.  He was a young defensive coordinator and they didn’t give him much time.  Oregon St. is still in the PAC-2 until they get the PAC-whatever back up and running.  It’s not a great job but someone will take it. 

The Pick: Paul Chryst

Chryst wasn’t lighting up the world at Wisconsin but he didn’t deserve to get fired either and they are paying for that mistake now.  He wants to get back into coaching but he isn’t going to be a hot commodity.  He would be an excellent pick to resurrect Oregon St. and get them on track as the new conference gets going. 

UAB

They fired Trent Dilfer and for good reason.  He was a disaster and anyone is an upgrade.  This program deserves a good coach.

The Pick: Billy Napier (former Florida). 

Napier is a good coach.  He was in over his head at Florida but he was an excellent coach at Louisiana.  UAB would be a good landing spot for him. 

Colorado St.

Jay Norvell did okay at CSU but never quite as well as he did at Nevada.  CSU is at best a stepping stone for a good young coach and at worst it’s a last stop for a guy on his way out.  Maybe this is the Brian Kelly stop.  I highly doubt he would swallow his pride enough to take this job but it would be a good place for him, no one is paying attention to Colorado St. 

The Pick: I don’t have a good choice for this one.  I say go for the up-and-coming coach like a Brian Brohm (Louisville OC), Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), or Tim Polasek (North Dakota St) but I’m not sure they would take it.  It’s possible this is a Mike Gundy spot.   

The two Big Ten jobs that could open but won’t.

Wisconsin

Luke Fickell needs a miracle because even if he survives this year, Wisconsin’s outlook next year can’t be great.  He’s a dead man walking but Wisconsin’s AD doesn’t want to admit his mistake and they really don’t want to pay his buyout.  They are talking about investing more money in the roster and while that would help, Fickell’s inability to keep a QB healthy has killed his team every year.  Wisconsin hasn’t had the offensive line they are used to or the defense they used to have so it’s an uphill climb.  It is possible things change and the Wisconsin AD gets the boot too and both are gone.  If they need a coach, Jason Eck (New Mexico) is a former Badger and if the AD is gone, they could try to mend fences with Jim Leonhard (Denver Broncos assistant).  Neither would necessarily break the bank so they could get it done. 

Michigan St. 

I thought the Jonathan Smith hire was a good one at the time and I would give him more time to right the ship.  With the portal, it’s possible to turn a roster around quickly if you make the right moves.  Maybe Smith is a bad fit but I think Michigan St. should sit out this coaching cycle, give Smith the resources to figure it out, and if he fails next season, maybe the coaching carousel isn’t so tough. They have turned that job into a revolving door since Mark Dantonio retired and it’s not a good idea to continually turn over the job.  They didn’t have a choice with Mel Tucker; he had to go. They have a choice with Smith and they should hold on to him. 

Well, if you made it this far, kudos to you and thanks for sticking around.  I probably got it all wrong and if Lane Kiffin picks Florida or stays at Ole Miss, the dominos may fall in a completely different way.  That’s the fun of dominos.      

2025 NFL Season Predictions

Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award

Top Contenders: QB Josh Allen, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Joe Burrow, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Derrick Henry, QB Jayden Daniels

Sleepers: QB CJ Stroud, QB Drake Maye, QB Caleb Willams, QB Bo Nix

We all know this is a basically an award for the best QB so that’s who’s on the list, and the two best RBs in football. Allen won it last year and rightfully so, he was awesome. Lamar has won twice and the Ravens will be good again so he’s in the running. Mahomes is the running as long as he’s still standing. Burrow made a late run last season when he was absolutely on fire and if he had led the Bengals to one more win, he might have had it. Allen was far enough ahead to hold him off but it was closer than you think. Barkley and Henry deserve a mention because they’re awesome players and if they have repeat seasons to last year, they are in the conversation. Daniels’ candidacy will hinge on whether or not the Commanders did enough to help him, I’m not sure Deebo is enough to get him over the hump. They did improve his protection so that will help. The sleepers are three rookie QBs who played the most last year besides Daniels. Any of them could level up and breakthrough. Each would need to get their team to the playoff to be in the conversation. Stroud had the sophomore slump Daniels is looking to avoid, if he bounces back, he’s worth noting.

My Pick: Josh Allen
It feels like it’s his time right now. The Bills haven’t conquered the Chiefs mountain yet but it’s not because of Allen. He doesn’t have the best supporting cast in football but he levels his guys up. If he turns Keon Coleman into a legit WR1, Khalil Shakir becomes a great number two, and then maybe he finally gets guys like TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Josh Palmer to level up, it’s his back-to-back MVP season.

Offensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: RB Saquon Barkley, RB Derrick Henry, RB Jamyr Gibbs, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR CeeDee Lamb, RB Bijan Robinson

Sleepers: TE Brock Bowers, WR Puka Nacua, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB De’Von Achane

Barkley won this award last season and he certainly earned it. He had over 2000 yards rushing and was a nearly unstoppable force for the Super Bowl Champions. It was impressive and his win was even more impressive when you consider how great Derrick Henry was as a RB, Bijan Robinson was overall, and that Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving triple crown. Chase is only the fifth receiver to ever lead the league in receptions, yards, and receiving TDs and he still didn’t touch Barkley. Gibbs had a great year for Detroit too, he had to shoulder more of the load when David Montgomery was banged up and he showed he’s up to the task. Jefferson and Lamb are the only two WRs who can reasonably be in the conversation of the best WR in the league with Chase. Those three are simply a level above everyone else. As for my sleepers, Bowers was amazing as a rookie. The numbers he had were insane and that was with some of the worst QB play in the league. Now he has Geno Smith who even on his worst day is a competent NFL starting QB. Puka Nacua has been excellent in LA and with Cooper Kupp gone and Devante Adams his new partner in crime, his stats might go up. Amon-Ra St. Brown should not be underestimated and Achane is a game breaker and the only way the Dolphins are awesome is if he is.

My Pick: WR Ja’Marr Chase
Last season he had over 1700 yards and 17 TDs and that was with a very slow start to Joe Burrow’s year. If Burrow can get going early and the Bengals don’t have their usually September slow start, Chase could get 2000 yards receiving. He’s the best WR in football and has one of the four elite QBs in the game.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top contenders: OLB TJ Watt, DE Myles Garrett, DE Micah Parsons, DE Nick Bosa, CB Patrick Surtain II, CB Derrick Stingley Jr., DE Maxx Crosby, S Kyle Hamilton

Sleepers: DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Jalen Carter, DE Will Anderson Jr., DB Cooper DeJean

Patrick Surtain II took his rightful place at the top of the CB position last season and won the Defensive Player of the Year. He’s been the best in the league for a couple of years but it took a few years for him to get the recognition. TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa are all pass rushers who have won this award in the recent past and are still good enough to do it. They have set the bar pretty high for themselves since they already have won it but it’s possible to repeat. Micah Parsons went from us not knowing what would happen to him with his contract situation and playing on not so great defense, to maybe being the favorite for the award. Derrick Stingley Jr. might be the only guy truly giving Surtain a run for his money as the top CB in the league right now. There are plenty of really good CBs but Surtain and Stingley Jr. are a cut above. DE Maxx Crosby is in the same pass rushing tier as the guys above but the Raiders have to be better for him to get the league-wide recognition. Maybe with Pete Carroll around, they will be. Kyle Hamilton is the chess piece that makes the Ravens defense amazing.

As far as sleepers, Trey Hendrickson is as good of a pass rusher as these other guys but the Bengals defense has been hot garbage and he either needs them to skyrocket up the league standings or he needs to get traded. Christian Gonzalez is a guy I can see taking the next step to level up to the Surtain/Stingley level of cover corner. He would have to be unbelievable to win this award but this is the year he starts building towards eventually winning it. Jalen Carter might be the best DT in football but unless you’re Aaron Donald, this is a tough award for a DT to win. Will Anderson is still a young guy but he’s about to truly breakout on a dominant defense in Houston, he’s eventually going to win this award. I’m throwing DeJean in because he’s going to make plays all over the field for one of the best defenses in football. His DC Vic Fangio is trying to play him wherever he can, just to get him on the field. He won’t win the award this year, but he has one in him.

My Pick: Micah Parsons
Originally, I picked Derek Stingley Jr. for his breakout year and winning this award, then Parsons got traded to Green Bay and it’s over. He’s going to a team with an ascending defense, playing under a really good coordinator, and he’s going to be motivated to prove he’s the best. Parsons has every reason to show everyone how great he is and to rub it in Jerry Jones’ face. Parsons can lead the league in sacks and help Green Bay get over the hump. That’s the kind of difference that wins you this award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: QB Cam Ward, RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Travis Hunter, WR Tetairoa McMillan, RB Omarion Hampton, RB TreVeyon Henderson, RB Kaleb Johnson

Sleepers: WR Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden III, WR Tory Horton

I feel like this is a RBs award to lose. Jeanty has to be the favorite as the top RB prospect and going to a team that is going to use him a ton. However, there are three others who are going to get used a ton. Omarion Hampton will get the Lion’s share of the carries in LA with Najee Harris not being fully healthy. Henderson is already outplaying Rhamondre Stevenson in New England the Patriots need as much playmaking on offense as they can get. Kaleb Johnson is going to get the early down work in Pittsburgh and if the offensive line is just solid, he’s going to break some big runs. Cam Ward is pushing the boulder up hill in Tennessee but he’s a QB and if he plays well, people will notice. Travis Hunter is a big name and can make plays but he’s the second WR to Brian Thomas Jr. and he’s still finding his way. I love McMillan but Bryce Young still has to prove to me he’s a legitimate starting QB who can use a real WR1.

I picked three WRs as sleepers because they should all contribute and have breakout potential. Higgins is the WR2 to Nico Collins but he has CJ Stroud so that helps. Burden is buried deeper on the depth chart in Chicago but something feels right between him and Ben Johnson. I love Horton as a dark horse. Sam Darnold is going to need a deep threat in Seattle decided it’s going to be Horton when they cut Marquez Zaldes-Scantling.

My Pick: RB Omarion Hampton
I’m picking Hampton over Jeanty and Kaleb Johnson even though my gut really wants to go with Johnson. Hampton is going to get the most carries for an offense that’s going to run the ball a ton. He’s a truly talented back and Jim Harbaugh is going to ride him all season long. Jeanty will get a ton of carries too but Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly will use others and I also think the Raiders offense won’t be quite as good. Johnson is going to be a stud in Pittsburgh but they still love Jaylen Warren and Johnson is going to face tougher boxes with Aaron Rodgers not scaring anyone.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Abdul Carter, DE Jalon Walker, DE Shamar Stewart, LB Jihaad Campbell, CB Travis Hunter, CB Will Johnson, DT Mason Graham

Sleepers: S Malaki Starks, OLB Mike Green, DB Jahdae Barron

The DROY usually goes to either the best pass rusher or the top cover corner, so it generally mirrors the defensive player of the year award. Carter is in prime position on a loaded Giants front to be highly productive. Jalon Walker has been exclusively practicing as a pass rusher for the Falcons. Shemar Stewart got a late start with his contract dispute but he has plenty of talent and he’s going to get every opportunity to be a difference maker for the Bengals. Jihaad Campbell is a LB but in Vic Fangio’s defense he’s going to do many different things. Travis Hunter would be high on the list if he was going to play CB more but most of his time is going to be spent on offense. Will Johnson is a dark horse; he was a second-round pick but he’s a first-round talent. Mason Graham probably won’t make enough splash plays as a DT to get noticed enough to win the award. Malaki Starks might make enough plays at safety in the Ravens defense to get noticed. Same goes for Mike Green as a pass rusher for the Ravens. Jahdae Barron will play in Denver but might get overshadowed too much on his own defense to stand out.

My Pick: DE Abdul Carter
I’m going with the most likely pick here. Carter is set up to succeed in New York, he’s in a big market where every one of his big plays will be played up. My next favorite is Will Johnson, the Cardinals stole a good one in round two.

AFC Playoff Teams
Kansas City
Buffalo
Baltimore
Houston
Wild Card Teams
Denver
LA Chargers
New England (yep, I said it)

NFC Playoff Teams
Philadelphia
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
LA Rams
Wild Card Teams
Detroit
Minnesota
San Francisco

AFC Championship Game
Kansas City vs. Buffalo

NFC Championship Game
Detroit vs. Green Bay

Super Bowl Matchup
Green Bay vs. Buffalo

Super Bowl Winner
Buffalo Bills

Playoff Explanation

Yes, I picked the Patriots to make the playoffs as the last team in on the AFC side. The six top teams in the AFC feel pretty solid but the seventh seed doesn’t seem clear to me. KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston as the division winners is pretty easy. I like Denver after the season they had and it’s hard to go against the Chargers after the season Harbaugh had with them in year one. It came down to two teams for me, the Patriots or the Bengals. I don’t like Miami this season, there’s just bad vibes there and I can’t get behind the Aaron Rodgers Steelers. I love the Bengals offense but that defense might be atrocious. If they get off to a slow start like they usually do, they may dig a hole too deep to dig out of. I like the Patriots to be like Washington last year in the NFC. Some good veteran leadership, a good head coach, and an electric QB to carry them on his back. It also helps that the Patriots have one of the easier schedules in the league.

I made one change from my division previews. I had Detroit winning the NFC North over the Packers but that was before the Packers got Micah Parsons. I thought it was going to be a tight race between them and I think Parsons pushes the Packers ahead. Picking the wildcard teams is tougher in the NFC because there are a lot of teams to like. Detroit is still too talented to write off and I think JJ McCarthy can do enough with that roster in Minnesota to get them to the playoffs. The last spot isn’t easy, there are plenty of options. The Seahawks could be good if Klint Kubiak fixes their o-line issues. Atlanta could be plucky if the defense is even decent. San Francisco was a last second pick for me for the last spot because while the injury issues are still present for them, they simply can’t have as bad of luck as they had last season. Brandon Aiyuk should be back at some point and now they have Brian Robinson to take some of the load off Christian McCaffrey. The defense has better players and Robert Saleh back calling it.

In the end, it’s hard to bet against KC and Buffalo in the AFC, Mahomes vs. Allen is the prize fight we all deserve. I feel like it’s time for Buffalo to get over the hump and this feels like Josh Allen’s year. I actually had Green Bay and Detroit in my NFC Championship game before the Parsons trade but I did switch to Green Bay as my NFC Super Bowl pick instead of Detroit. I am worried about Detroit’s interior offensive line but if Aidan Hutchinson stays healthy I think their defense will be really good. Parsons pushes the Packers over the Lions for me. They did not have a difference maker on defense, now they have one of the top five defensive playmakers in the league, added to a defense that as pretty good last season.

Thoughts and Predictions

Last year the rookie class was mostly about the QBs. This year the rookie class is going to be about the rookie RBs. Ashton Jeanty (Raiders), Omarion Hampton (Chargers), Kaleb Johnson (Steelers), TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots), RJ Harvey (Broncos), and Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) will all play huge roles with their teams. While they won’t all start to begin the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are all the starters by the midpoint of the year. Also, Jaydon Blue (Cowboys), Ollie Gordon (Dolphins), Kyle Monangai (Bears) and Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) are four more guys who can work their way into bigger roles as the season goes on. It feels like a bit of a changing of the guard as some guys age and these young guys take over.
Speaking of aging, I’m worried about the Matthew Stafford back issue. Stafford is 37 years old and missed most of training camp with a back issue. The back of any 37-year-old can be iffy and with a guy who can routinely get hit by 300 lbs. defensive linemen it’s especially an issue. Everything for the Rams hinges on Stafford’s health. I picked them to win the NFC West but if Stafford misses games with this back issue, all bets are off. I’m not riding with the Rams if their QB is Jimmy G.

There were three big contract issues heading towards week one and the Commanders got a new deal done with WR Terry McLaurin and the Bengals gave DE Trey Hendrickson more money to satisfy him this season. The third was Micah Parsons and I can’t believe Jerry Jones traded him. It makes no sense to trade him and even less sense to do it now. He’s under contract for the year; he wasn’t going to miss games with his “back” issues. Play out the season, franchise tag him in the off season and trade him next year before the draft. It’s not a surprise Jerry Jones let his ego get the best of him, he once fired Jimmy Johnson because he couldn’t stand people giving Johnson credit for the team winning. The two first round picks and a player trade was always going to be there. You either trade him this last spring when you can get a draft pick to help you this year, or you wait until next off season. Dumbest trade in Dallas since the Mavericks traded Luka Doncic…been a tough year in Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman is a trading machine, he’s pulled off a number of trades in the last couple of weeks. They’re small moves but they improve the roster along the fringes and that’s where games can be won and lost. I’m not sure why more GMs don’t do what Roseman does. Roseman picked up guys like OT Fred Johnson, CB Jakorian Bennett, WR John Metchie III, and backup QB Sam Howell. Some of these guys may not make a difference but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them come in handy at sometime this season.

Speaking of trades, the Patriots seem to be holding onto some veterans they have to be looking to trade. Their initial 53-man roster had eight WRs, along with LB Anfernee Jennings and S Kyle Dugger. Jennings and Dugger don’t seem to fit the new defense but they will fit someone’s defense. I hope they are just holding onto them to get some value and not because they are paying them real money. At WR, Kendrick Bourne was non-existent during the preseason, they ended up cutting him when they couldn’t get a deal done with Minnesota (Vikings preferred Adam Thielen instead), but there are WR needy teams (Steelers, Commanders, 49ers), they should have taken anything for Bourne.

The other team that did well with trades was the 49ers. They picked up RB Brian Robinson Jr. and he’s going to be a great combo with Christian McCaffrey. They also took a flyer on WR Skyy Moore who was a bust in Kansas City. That’s a low cost move and Moore is a talented player who may just need a change of scenery.

Going into training camp it felt like Cam Ward was the one rookie QB worth paying attention to with Saints QB Tyler Shough another possibility. Ward showed he could be a problem in Tennessee, maybe sooner rather than later. Shough lost the starting job to Spencer Rattler, that’s not a good sign. Giant’s rookie QB Jaxson Dart looked awesome when he played and Russell Wilson is on notice. The Giants don’t have an easy slate to start the year and if Russell struggles, Dart’s getting that job pretty quickly.

There are two expensive veteran QBs who need to have good seasons or their teams may look to move on from them. There are enough teams who need starting QBs next year that they could look into trading for these guys. Trevor Lawrence is out of excuses in Jacksonville, it’s put up or get out time. Kyler Murray is in year seven and if it doesn’t get better on offense in Arizona and they stagnate, he could be gone. Maybe they get traded for each other.

The other QBs to keep an eye on for potential moves maybe even as early as the trade deadline this year are Kirk Cousins and Tanner McKee. Cousins is still in Atlanta and they will wait to see if Michael Penix Jr. is the answer there. McKee is the backup in Philadelphia and he’s got some buzz about how good he is. Howie Roseman picked up Sam Howell as his third QB because he knows McKee has value and he will either trade him before the deadline this year or look to move him this off season.

It’s always interesting to look at who the first coach fired will be. Brian Daboll (Giants), Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) and Shane Steichen (Colts) feel like the early leaders. Steichen is counting on Daniel Jones at QB so that’s not great but the Colts schedule isn’t that hard to start off the year, he should survive a while. The Dolphins schedule isn’t that hard but three of the first five games are against their division, if they start 1-4, it’s gets dicey. Daboll could easily start the year 0-4, they start at Washington, at Dallas, home against Kansas City, home against the Chargers, that’s rough. However, week 5 is against the Saints and Daboll has the Jaxson Dart card to play.

The guy who could very easily be gone by week five or shortly there after is Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. It’s completely unfair because of the QB hand he’s been dealt but the reality is this team is facing a daunting schedule to start the year. They go Cincinnati, at Baltimore, Green Bay, at Detroit, then Minnesota the first five weeks and going from Joe Flacco to Dillon Gabriel or Shadeur Sanders isn’t going to give anyone a lot of hope. The next three after that are at Pittsburgh, Miami, and at New England, not exactly any gimmes in that. For Stefanski’s sake, I hope he gets fired so he can go coach somewhere that isn’t a trainwreck, he’s a good coach who deserves better. I think things go very poorly in Cleveland and the ownership group has to make a change, Stefanski gets canned, GM Andrew Berry won’t be far behind. Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz is the most likely interim head coach.

2025 AFC South Preview

Houston Texans

DeMeco Ryans was unhappy with the offense last season so he fired OC Bobby Slowik along with their offensive line coach and hired Nick Caley, who is coming from the Rams.  Caley spent the last few seasons under Seah McVay and before that spent a number of years in New England so he has a varied offensive background.  The defense was excellent last season and Ryans is looking to build on that on that side of the ball. 

QB CJ Stroud had a sophomore slump compared to his rookie season but then again, his rookie season was great so it’s all relative.  The offense was pedestrian at best with unimaginative play calling, an offensive line that was awful, and a WR group that was thinned out by injury.  WR Nico Collins is one of the best in the league but by the end of last season he was a one-man show.  Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both got injured and the team decided to be sure they aren’t short-handed this year.  Diggs is gone and Dell’s injury was late in the year and devastating so no one’s sure when he’ll be back and they probably aren’t counting on it this year.  The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to start in the slot.  They drafted Jayden Higgins and he’ll start at the X.  Collins, Higgins, and Kirk are a good trio for Stroud.  They didn’t stop there, they drafted Jaylin Noel, he backs up Kirk. They signed Justin Watson from Kansas City; he’ll back up Higgins.  And they still have Xavier Hutchinson and Braxton Barrios too.  TE Dalton Schultz is a solid player and is backed by Cade Stover.

The offensive line was abysmal last year so they turned it over completely this off season.  Initially the plan was replacing Laremy Tunsil at LT with Cam Robinson but rookie second rounder Aireontae Ersery beat out Robinson.  That’s good news since Robinson is a replacement level player only.  Tytus Howard was supposed to be one of the guards but he’s taken the RT spot from Blake Fisher.  Fisher was pretty awful last year so it’s not surprising.  At guard, they have Laken Tomlinson on the left side and Ed Ingram on the right.  Those two were terrible in Seattle and Minnesota respectively last year so they have to be hoping they will be better in Caley’s offense, that’s a major bet they’re making.  At center they had both Jarrett Patterson and Juice Scruggs, guys who have started before, but it’s former Patriots’ castoff Jake Andrews who won the job out of camp.  Andrews is a talented player who was just never healthy in New England.  He might be an upgrade if he can stay healthy. 

RB Joe Mixon carried the load last year but he’s already hurt and it’s not apparent when he’ll be ready to play.  Nick Chubb is his backup but reports from camp are he looks slow coming off his injuries.  Dameon Peirce has been underwhelming which leaves rookie Woody Marks looking to carry the load, that’s not ideal. Someone is going to have to be the RB here, it’s just not clear who’s going to take the job.   

The Texans’ defense has been good under DeMeco Ryans and last year they were very good.  The front is led by DE Danielle Hunter and DE Will Anderson Jr.  They are a dynamic pair off the edge but they need a little more help inside.  A healthy return for guys like Folorunso Fatukasi and Denico Autry would help.  They re-signed Sheldon Rankins who was good for them two years ago but was awful in Cincinnati last season.  They hope Darrell Taylor gives them some edge depth with Derek Barnett too. 

The LBs are solid but not spectacular.  MLB Azeez Al-Shaair is well-versed in Ryans’ defense and Christian Harris and Henry To’o To’o are solid players flanking him.  CB Derrick Stingley Jr. is one of the two or three best corners in the NFL and they rely on him to take his guy out of the offense.  CB Kamari Lassiter was a steal in last year’s draft and held up quite well opposite Stingley.  FS Calen Bullock also stepped in as a starter last year and he was quite good.  The team traded for CJ Gardner-Johnson in the off season but he just had a knee injury that is going to affect his availability.  They still have Jalen Pitre and he’s an excellent nickel but he may have to play some more traditional safety if Gardner-Johnson is out very long. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

The front office and coaching staff have undergone complete makeovers and it was all overdue.  GM James Gladstone replaces Trent Baalke and Liam Coen comes in at head coach.  The roster isn’t changing a ton because they have some good players and they believe a better coaching staff will get more out of these guys.  It starts with Coen bringing in a new offense which is long overdue.

QB Trevor Lawrence is signed to a major contract and the team’s success is tied to him whether they like it or not.  Coen was hired to do what Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson couldn’t do, get Lawrence to live up to his considerable talent.  Lawrence is one of the most physically gifted QBs in the league but hasn’t had an offense that takes advantage of him.  Coen got the absolute most out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last season and while Tampa’s WR group is more accomplished than the one the Jaguars have, the Jaguars have some serious talent to work with.

Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie and established himself as an elite WR even in a bad offense.  The team signed Dyami Brown to a decent one-year contract after his solid season in Washington and he gives them another skill set.  Finally, the team traded up in round one to get Travis Hunter and while they do plan on using him some at CB, his primary role for now will be as the WR2 for this team.  They made a late preseason trade for Tim Patrick from Detroit, he’s a solid pickup.  All three of those guys can be legitimate playmakers.  The team let Evan Engram go at TE but Brenton Strange is a good young player who probably fits Coen’s offense a little better. 

The offensive line isn’t teeming with elite players but the team hopes they have upgraded at a few spots and that the whole will be more than the sum of its parts.  Coen had a good offensive line in Tampa and they hope he can work some magic here.  LT Walker Little took over for Cam Robinson last year and while he’s not a Pro Bowler, he’s better than Robinson.  They traded for Ezra Cleveland and then re-signed him so they hope he’s solid at LG.  RT Anton Harrison wasn’t as good last year as his rookie season but he still has talent.  The C and RG spots are new as Coen imported Robert Hainsey to take over in the pivot.  Hainsey lost his job to a rookie in Tampa Bay last season so he’s certainly not elite but he’s better than Luke Fortner.  Patrick Mekari has been a long-time Raven who filled a lot of holes with his versatility.  The Jags want him to stick at RG and replace Brandan Scherff who they let go.  It’s possible the line is better but that’s not a guarantee. 

Travis Etienne has been the starting RB whenever he’s been healthy for the last several years but they always seem to be trying to replace him.  Tank Bigsby is the guy they brought in two years ago and he has yet to prove to be better.  They drafted Bhayshul Tuten this year but I’ll believe they are changing RBs when I see it.  Etienne is always underestimated but seems to hold on to the job. 

The defense is returning almost fully intact from a personnel standpoint which means Coen is placing a lot of trust on new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile turning this unit around.  Campanile is inexperienced as a coordinator so it’s going to be interesting to see what he does.  There is talent to work with so it’s not impossible this defense can be good.  The front features DE Josh Hines-Allen and DE Travon Walker on the outside.  These two can get the pressure of the edge any team would desire so that’s a good start.  They aren’t great in the middle with DaVon Hamilton and an aging Arik Armstead at DT.  That’s assuming Armstead his healthy enough to play.  It would help if one of the backups like Maason Smith or Austin Johnson could contribute. 

At LB, Devin Lloyd is a solid MLB and Foyesade Oluokun is fine on the weakside but hopefully Campanile’s defense puts them in better positions to succeed and uses their strengths.  The strongside LB is Yasir Abdullah who’s a young player without a lot of experience or Dennis Gardeck, a veteran coming off an injury.

The secondary would be helped out if Travis Hunter was going to be a full-time CB but for now, he’s going to be used situationally.  CB Tyson Campbell is a solid CB1 even if he’s not one of the top players at the position.  Jarrian Jones will try to hold up as the other outside CB with Hunter likely to step in when needed.  They signed Jourdan Lewis to be their nickel corner and he’s a good player when healthy but that’s not a guarantee.  At safety, Eric Murray is a veteran they have penciled in at SS with Andrew Wingard at FS.  Not the best duo but if the front is good that will help the back end. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are going into the second year of Brian Callahan’s tenure and they are doing it with a new QB, Cam Ward.  Callahan’s offense wasn’t in the best hands last year with Will Levis which is why they took Ward first overall.  They also decided to help the offensive line out with some changes and the offense should be better.  The defense has Dennard Wilson back at DC and they hope to make strides on that side with a few changes. 

Cam Ward is a dynamic player who should give them a higher ceiling than Levis was giving them.  Callahan’s offense is in better hands with Ward.  The entire QB corps turns over as Levis is out for the year with an injury so it’s Ward, backed up by Brandon Allen.  There is also massive turnover at WR.  Calvin Ridley returns as the top player at the position but the rest of the roster will be new.  Veterans Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett were signed to give the offense more consistency.  Lockett is aging but he can still play.  Jefferson is okay but has never really excelled.  They also drafted a couple of rookies in Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike.  This should be a solid group for Ward.  TE Chig Okonkwo is a solid player in the passing game too. 

RB Tony Pollard was a 1000-yard rusher last year behind a suspect offensive line and on an overall suspect offense.  He’s a good player and it should really help him out to get a better line up front.  The team seriously overspent to get LT Dan Moore in free agency but he was the best LT they could sign and he upgrades two positions for them.  Moore is a better LT than JC Latham was last season as a rookie.  Latham is a natural RT and now he moves back to that position and should be a massive upgrade over the guys they played at the position last season.  The also signed veteran RG Kevin Zeitler and while he’s getting up there in age, he’s still playing at high level.  Zeitler and Latham on the right side could be a devastating combo.  LG Peter Skoronski needs to play well but having a better LT next to him should help.  It would also be very helpful if C Lloyd Cushenberry returns healthy.  He was having a good year before he got hurt and they need his consistency inside. 

The defense returns all three starters up front with Sebastian Joseph-Day, T’Vondre Sweat, and Jeffrey Simmons.  Simmons is one of the better DTs in the league and he’s a force up front.  Sweat had a very good year as a rookie at NT and made the line much stronger.  Joseph-Day is a veteran who can hold his own.  They don’t have great depth so they need these guys healthy.  At OLB they will go with Arden Key and most likely Dre’Mont Jones who they signed from Seattle.  Jones is a strange OLB being 6’3 281 lbs., not your typical speed rusher off the edge.  Key is a decent rotation guy but shouldn’t be a full-time player or really a starter either.  They are certainly hoping rookie Oluwafemi Oladejo out of UCLA can give them something off the edge.  Cody Barton was signed to pair with James Williams Jr. at ILB.  It’s not a great pair but they should be serviceable. 

The secondary needs L’Jarius Snead to return at CB after the money and draft capital they spent last year to get him.  He’s coming off an injury but they need the CB1 they paid for or things get rough quickly.  Jarvis Brownlee Jr. was a great find at the other CB spot in the fifth round of last year’s draft but he needs to be the #2 guy.  Roger McCreary is a good nickel guy and they don’t have depth behind these three.  Amani Hooker is a seasoned veteran at SS and they hope veteran Xavier Woods is a good pickup at FS.  Rookie Kevin Winston Jr. was a solid pickup in round three of this year’s draft to be the third safety. 

Indianapolis Colts

GM Chris Ballard has been around a long time and while head coach Shane Steichen has only been around a few years, both guys are tied to the QBs they have chosen to have here.  Anthony Richardson was supposed to be that guy but they are going with Daniel Jones instead.  Their owner Jim Irsay passed away this off season so now his daughters are in charge and Ballard may not have the job security he’s enjoyed before if this QB choice kills their season. 

Richardson is still just a thought experiment at this point and it’s hasn’t gone well.  We know what Daniel Jones is and while it’s not good, it’s preferable to Richardson at this point.  It’s not great when you’re looking at rookie third stringer Riley Leonard and thinking “hey, why not.”

The passing game is dependent on the QB raising the level of the WRs because while Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, are a solid trio of players, they aren’t world beaters on their own.  These guys need a QB who makes them better.  Maybe second year WR AD Mitchell is a guy with that kind of talent but he’s still raw.  TE Tyler Warren was drafted to give this team a playmaker because the WR group is just a group of good players, not difference makers.  Daniel Jones doesn’t inspire confidence but he has a higher floor, in theory, than Richardson.  Ballard and Steichen could be gone quickly if this goes off the rails early in the year. 

The other issue is the offensive line.  LT Bernhard Raimann has really developed into a good player and they signed him to a contract extension, that’s good news.  LG Quenton Nelson probably isn’t the dominant force he once was but he’s still a good guard.  His draft classmate RT Braden Smith was never as dominant like Nelson but he’s always been steady.  He’s been dealing with some mental health issues so the team has to hope he’s ready to play all year.  The real issue is at center and RG where two second-year guys are looking to take over.  C Tanor Bortolini is being counted on to replace Ryan Kelly while Matt Goncalves is looking to replace Will Fries full-time at RG.  Goncalves played some for Fries last year but now these jobs belong to them.  Kelly was aging and Fries had some injury issues but these two were awesome when they played together.  Bortolini and Goncalves have big shoes to fill.  RB Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in football but he does need some blocking to get going.  That’s especially true if the passing game isn’t threatening anyone. 

The biggest change on defense is the scheme as the team is moving on from Gus Bradley and hired Lou Anarumo from Cincinnati.  Cincinnati’s defense has struggled under Anarumo but that was largely due to them ignoring the defensive personnel, the Colts added some good pieces in the off season.  They are largely unchanged up front as they are hoping for development from Latu Laiatu at DE after a solid rookie year.  Kwity Paye is the other DE and they hope getting Samson Ebukam back as a pass rusher helps.  DT DeForest Buckner isn’t getting any younger but he can still play.  Grover Stewart is even older but he’s still solid.  They could use some young depth to step forward. 

The LB group is underwhelming with MLB Zaire Franklin and assumably Cameron McGrone at the other spot.  Franklin is fine but he’s 29 and undistinguished at this point.  McGrone is going into year five and hasn’t really done anything at all.  Where this team made some moves in the secondary where it was certainly needed.  They signed CB Charvarius Ward after going years without a real CB1, Ward is that guy.  They cut JuJu Brents after another lost season to injury which leaves Jaylon Jones as the other starting outside CB.  Kenny Moore II is back as the slot guy, he’s still really good there.  At safety, they team signed Cam Bynum at FS and he was very good in Minnesota last year.  Nick Cross returns at SS and he’s fine.  The best news is that Lou Anarumo can put together a good defense if he has the guys to run it and this group has the type of solid veterans he prefers because it’s generally a complicated game plan.  The LB group leaves plenty to be desired but if the Colts are bad, I don’t think it will be because the defense is terrible.  It will be because the offense left the defense on the field too much.        

2025 NFC South Preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Todd Bowles is back as the head coach but this team is changing offensive coordinators again after Liam Coen got the Jacksonville job.  The new OC is Josh Grizzard who was on the staff last season so they hope he can keep things going with Baker Mayfield and this offense.  The defense returns most of their guys and Bowles knows how to put that side together with his DC Larry Foote.  The Bucs keep winning this division so it’s hard to pick against them especially when the rest of the division has some serious questions. 

Baker Mayfield reignited his career two years ago under Dave Canales and then kept it going under Liam Coen.  I believe there is a rule that says Mayfield can’t have an offensive coordinator for more than one season so he gets Grizzard this year.  He’s so used to it at this point I can’t even hold it against him.  Any passing game that has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Tez Johnson should be good.  Evans is the definition of consistency, and high-level consistency. Godwin is coming back from injury but he’s done it before so I’m not counting him out.  McMillan stepped in for Godwin as a rookie last year and held his own, but now he’s hurt so they need Godwin back.  Egbuka was a surprise pick in round one but he’s a very talented player who can fill in at any WR position, and he will step in for Godwin for now.  Tez Johnson is a small but talented player they may need in the slot until Godwin and McMillan get healthy.  TE Cade Otten is a underappreciated member of this offense too. 

The running game was taken over last season by RB Bucky Irving.  No one is mistaking Irving for Saquon Barkley but he put together a very good season as a rookie last year.  He gives them a more dynamic runner than Rachaad White so that’s helpful.  The offensive line was one of the healthiest units last year and they were excellent.  LT Tristan Wirfs is arguably the best LT in football and unfortunately, he’s starting the year hurt.  He had knee surgery in July and they are hoping he makes it back early in the year.  LG Ben Bredeson was an afterthought starting last year but had a good season and they re-signed him.  C Graham Barton came in as a rookie and took the starting job immediately and never looked back.  He’s an ascending player.  RG Cody Mauch had his best season and RT Luke Goedeke did the same.  It’s a good unit and if Wirfs is healthy, they have potential to be great. 

The defense returns almost entirely intact, that’s both a good thing and a bad thing.  The defense wasn’t elite but they are solid across the board. The one problem is they are getting a little older in some key spots and it’s not clear they improved any deficiencies.  DEs Logan Hall and Calijah Kancey are good and they do their jobs.  Neither one is a superstar but both can be disruptive.  NT Vita Vea is 30 and you can tell he’s not quite what he was in his prime but he’s still one of the better NTs in football.  The pass rush needs some juice but all they did was add Haason Reddick at OLB.  He didn’t really play last year after some contract issues and he’s also 30.  Yaya Diaby is the other OLB and he’s young and could develop into a better player.  Lavonte David is 35 and returns as a starter.  He’s a Bucs legend at this point but he’s definitely lost a step.  SirVocea Dennis is the likely other staring ILB.  Dennis is young and athletic so he’s got that going for him.

The secondary was an issue last year with the CB position one where they were looking for upgrades.  Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum are the starters but they need some help.  They took a second-round flyer in Benjamin Morrison from Notre Dame who’s coming off an injury.  He’s an excellent talent but it’s a hip injury he’s coming back from so that could be tricky.  They also drafted Jacob Parrish to give them some depth and he can start at nickel.  Tykee Smith was the nickel last year and he was very good but they need him to play more safety this year.  Antoine Winfield Jr. comes back for one safety spot but they don’t have someone locked into the other one.  If Parrish can give them a nickel back then Smith will slot in at safety. 

Atlanta Falcons

Raheem Morris goes into his second season as the head coach but he’s already made a coaching change.  He’s moving on from Jimmy Lake at DC and he hired Jeff Ulbrich who was the DC and then interim head coach of the Jets last season.  It’s once again a change in defensive philosophy for this unit so it could be a bumpy ride.  Zac Robinson is back at OC with Michael Penix Jr. installed as the QB.  They still have Kirk Cousins as their backup QB and I’m sure that’s not weird at all. 

Penix stepped in last year and started the final three games after the wheels came off for Cousins.  Cousins wasn’t bad to start the year but it started to go bad around November and he threw nine picks in his last five starts.  Penix looked better in his three starts and the team decided to move on but failed to find a trade partner for Cousins.  Cousins isn’t the type of guy to rock the boat but if Penix has some early season struggles, things will get testy in Atlanta.

Penix has the luxury of having a legitimate WR1 in Drake London, he was excellent last season.  Darnell Mooney proved to be solid #2 also but he’s starting the year injured with a shoulder issue.  Ray-Ray McCloud III did fine as the third WR last year but they have no depth and McCloud isn’t really a proven commodity.  TE Kyle Pitts will once again tantalize everyone with his athleticism; the question is will he actually do anything with it.  They need his potential playmaking to add a dimension to the passing game. 

Speaking of dimensions, RB Bijan Robinson had a breakout season with over 1400 yards rushing and he had 61 catches.  He’s the engine of the offense and he’ll keep defenses honest for Michael Penix Jr.  Robinson runs behind a sold offensive line that was set to return all five starters from the end of last season.  LT Jake Matthews is 33 but he’s as reliable as they come.  LG Matthew Bergeron is a good player next to him.  RG Chris Lindstrom is one of the best guards in the league and you know that because you never hear about him.  C Ryan Neuzil returns after stepping in for the injured Drew Dalman last year.  Dalman got a big contract in free agency but Atlanta didn’t even try to re-sign him because they have confidence in Neuzil. The only problem is at RT where Kaleb McGary went down late in camp and is out for the season.  Elijah Wilkinson is penciled in to start because they have other injuries there too.  It’s going to be an issue if they don’t find a suitable replacement. Michael Penix Jr. is a left handed QB so the RT is his blindside protector and entrusting that to Elijah Wilkinson, Michael Jarrell, or Jack Nelson seems like a bad idea.   

The biggest issue with the Falcons is going to be the defense.  Once again, they are changing defensive coordinators and once again it means a change in the scheme and that means some guys already on the roster are odd fits for the new defense.  The biggest issue is in the front seven and most importantly it’s the defensive line.  DT Ruke Orhorhoro probably works fine inside at tackle and not as a nose tackle or 3-4 end.  DE Zach Harrison was drafted to a 3-4 end and he’s not a good fit as a 4-3 DE or as a DT but they are playing him at DT.  David Onyemata has played in various fronts in his career so he can probably make it work but he’s also going to be 33 this year. 

At DE, they signed Leonard Floyd in free agency, drafted Jalon Walker with their first-round pick, and then traded up to get James Pierce Jr. in the first round too.  Walker is practicing exclusively as a pass rusher even though he was a LB at Georgia.  They are hoping Pierce can live up to the trade value they gave up for him.  They also have Arnold Ebikite who was drafted a few years ago to be an OLB.  All four of these guys are undersized DE but they hope to get some edge rush out of them.  Walker and Pierce are especially important given they were first-round picks.    

At LB they are counting on free agent Divine Deablo to man the middle.  He was an underwhelming player for the Raiders; they hope a new system unlocks something.  Kaden Ellis is an excellent pass rushing LB even though he isn’t an OLB.  He’ll likely play the weakside in the new defense but they would be wise to find ways to blitz him and let his natural pass rushing ability shine. 

The secondary is an interesting group.  CB AJ Terrell is not one of the elite cover guys in the league but he’s definitely a CB1.  He holds up well against most of the top WRs.  The other outside CB spot is likely Mike Hughes, he’s a replacement level guy.  They continually try to make Clark Phillips III that guy but he should probably be slot guy.  Dee Alford is their slot guy and he’s fine except they drafted Billy Bowman Jr. who seems to have won that spot.  SS Jessie Bates III is one of the best safeties in football but it’s been a revolving door opposite him and he could use a good partner.  Enter, Xavier Watts, a rookie out of Notre Dame who is a better football player than he is an athlete and that should be music to Bates’ ears.  Watts could help level up this secondary if he plays like I know he can. 

Carolina Panthers

For the first time in a while the Panthers aren’t going in to the season as the worst team in their division and that’s thanks to head coach Dave Canales.  He benched Bryce Young early last season and even though a weird injury to Andy Dalton put Young back in at QB, it jump started something in Young.  Give Canales credit for finding ways to help Young succeed.  Now it’s up to him to keep the offense moving forward and for Ejiro Evero to fix the leagues worst defense.  They got him some help, the question is, is it enough? 

Young seemed more confident after he got his starting job back last season.  They did things that took advantage of his abilities and some of the guys around him stepped up.  Xavier Leggett wasn’t a star but he made some plays. Even Jalen Coker found some success and made the team think he can actually be a part of the future.  It was still obvious the team needs a WR1 and that’s why they drafted Tetairoa McMillan in round one.  McMillan gives them a legitimate outside playmaker who is some sort of cross between Tee Higgins and Mike Evans if he reaches his potential.  He makes Young’s life easier just by being on the field.  The team did trade Adam Thielen back to Minnesota and then they lost Jalen Coker to an injury to start the year.  They brought back Hunter Renfrow after cutting him initially.  He gives them a slot guy until Coker returns.  TE isn’t a great position for them but they can still hope Ja’Tavion Sanders develops into something.  He’s only 22 and going into his second season.  For now, Tommy Tremble holds down the spot. 

The running game really improved last season with a career year out of Chuba Hubbard and the improvements on the offensive line were noticeable.  Hubbard finally got his chance to be the main back when Miles Sanders failed to be the guy and they never got Jonathan Brooks going.  Hubbard had a great year after the team fixed the interior of the line with new guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt.  They added a level of physicality they didn’t have before and that helped Austin Corbett at center.  LT Ikem Ekwonu played a lot better and RT Taylor Moton was his usual consistent self.  Keeping the running game going is paramount because it takes pressure off Young at QB.  That’s why the team signed Rico Dowdle to be the back up RB, he had over 1000 yards last year in Dallas.  They also drafted Trevor Etienne to give them a pass catching third-down back and even more depth. 

The defense was atrocious last year and it all started up front.  It didn’t help that their best DL Derrick Brown was hurt last year.  He should be back healthy and that will help but that wasn’t the whole issue.  That’s why they are making wholesale changes across the entire front seven. Brown gets two new starters next to him on the line with Bobby Brown III at NT and Tershawn Wharton taking the other end position.  Those guys are upgrades for sure and having Brown at NT should help the run defense. 

They didn’t stop there; the LB corps gets a facelift too.  They signed OLB Patick Jones II to pair with DJ Wonnum as their pass rushing ends but they also drafted Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen on day two of the draft.  If that doesn’t juice the pass rush, nothing will.  On the inside they signed Christian Rozeboom to pair with Trevin Wallace as they replace Josey Jewell and long-time stalwart Shaq Thompson at ILB.   

The secondary got some help but still needs some work.  They signed Tre’von Moehrig from Las Vegas and he’s a big upgrade.  The other safety spot is still a work in progress with Nick Scott, Demani Richardson and maybe rookie Latham Ransom as possibilities.  At CB, Jaycee Horn got a huge contract extension and now they need him to be a top-flight CB who stays healthy.  He has the talent, now he needs to show up every week and play to it.  Mike Jackson is just a placeholder at the other spot while they have high hopes for Chau Smith-Wade in the slot. 

New Orleans Saints

Kellen Moore gets his first shot to be a head coach and unfortunately for him, this could be the worst team in the league.  It may largely depend on what they get out of the QB position but I’ll get to that in second.  One of the more curious choices or Moore as first-time head coach was picking Brandon Staley as his defensive coordinator.  Failed head coaches get hired as coordinators all the time but Staley’s defenses for the Chargers were bad. It will be an interesting year in New Orleans.

For now, Spencer Rattler seems to have held off rookie Tyler Shough at QB.  I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.  Either one is likely overmatched.  Rattler was pretty bad last year when he stepped in for the injured Derek Carr but Shough hasn’t been good enough to beat him out.  The team drafted Shough in the second round hoping to catch lightening in a bottle but it doesn’t look good at this point. 

There are some talented players on this offense if they’re healthy.  WR Chris Olave is a legitimate WR1 but he’s been dealing with concussion issues and he’s one bad hit away from being done.  Rashid Shaheed missed most of last season with a meniscus tear and they hope he rebounds with the same speed he brought before.  They signed Brandin Cooks as a solid veteran presence after the WR group turned into a MASH unit last year.  They turned over the back half of the WR corps when they traded for DeVaughn Vele from Denver and picked up Trey Palmer after he was cut from Tampa Bay.  Solid additions but it might not matter. TE Juwan Johnson is a solid pass catcher but Taysom Hill is going to be 35 and is coming off an injury too so they shouldn’t count on him too much. 

The offensive line had injuries last season too and they need everyone to get healthy and settle into their new positions.  They drafted Kelvin Banks and are installing him at LT which means Taliese Fuaga is flipping over to his more natural RT spot.  That in turn moves last year’s RT Trevor Penning to LG, a position he’s never played.  He’s probably better suited for the interior but it will be a transition.  Both C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz had various injuries and missed games last season.  They need both to stay healthy this year and play their best football.  RB Alvin Kamara missed a few games last season but he was still easily their best offensive weapon.  He’s been a mainstay on this offense for years and while this is his age 30 season, they need him to be the main piece again.  They have more depth at RB but no one who moves the needle like him. 

The defense underwhelmed last year and they are downgrading from Dennis Allen’s defense to Brandon Staley calling things.  They are running out the same front as they have been using with the only addition up front being Davon Godchaux, a DT the Patriots jettisoned. Godchaux brings some size on the inside but he’ll be 31 this year and his play wasn’t great last year.  They still have Bryan Bresee but he hasn’t had any kind of breakout season yet.  DE Nathan Shepard and the Saints legend himself Cameron Jordan return too.  Jordan is 36 and this group doesn’t inspire confidence.  They re-signed Chase Young as one of the edge rushers and it will be interesting to see how he fits in Staley’s defense.  Carl Granderson also returns at edge and we will see how it works for him too. 

Again, they are counting on an aging veteran at ILB in Demario Davis, he’s also 36, he was still good last year but that age cliff could hit at any moment.  Pete Werner is the other ILB and we will see if Staley can get something out of a young guy like rookie Danny Stutsman.  The secondary is facing almost a whole facelift.  They traded Marcus Lattimore at last year’s trade deadline, they let Paulson Adebo leave in free agency, and both starting safeties are gone.  That means Kool-Aid McKinstry goes from backup CB to CB1.  They signed veteran Isaac Yiadom as the other starter, that’s not great.  Alontae Taylor returns as the nickel, he’s fine.  The safety spots should be fine after they signed Justin Reid from Kansas City and then picked up Julian Blackmon later in free agency.  The safety spots have a chance to be good if those two play their usual football.  The depth in the secondary are CB Quincy Riley and S Jonas Sanker.     

2025 NFC West Preview

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the NFL and for the first time in quite a while he didn’t lose either of his coordinators in the off season. OC Mike LaFleur and DC Chris Shula return and will look to build on the successes of last season and plug the holes they had.  The Rams were a tough out in the playoffs last season and they are hoping to push themselves even farther this year. 

QB Matthew Stafford flirted with leaving this off season as he looked for more certainty in his contract and the team debated the idea of trying to get younger at QB.  Eventually, both sides realized they were better off together and they agreed to a reasonable extension.  Stafford can still have some good years left and the team will look to manage his workload to keep him healthy.  He has been dealing with a back issue throughout camp and that could be a concern.

They did cut ties with Stafford favorite WR Cooper Kupp as his age has been catching up to him.  They still have Puka Nacua who took over Kupp’s WR1 role last year and he looks like he’s not slowing down. They needed a running mate for him and someone to fill the X receiver role instead of someone who was duplicative like Kupp was to Nacua.  They signed Devante Adams who is the perfect outside X receiver.  He wins one-on-one and doesn’t need to move around the formation to do so.  Also, Stafford is the best QB he’s played with since Aaron Rodgers last MVP season, that was in 2021.  I’m not completely sure why but McVay likes Tutu Atwell as his third receiver so we will go with it.  They did draft Terrance Ferguson to give them a dynamic athlete at TE and they hope Tyler Higbee can stay healthy and, on the field, to give them some two-TE sets. 

RB Kyren Williams is the unsung hero of McVay’s offense.  There are not a lot of RBs who get 300 carries in a season anymore as teams generally go with a shared backfield these days.  Not McVay, he rides Williams as much as just about any coach.  There were only six backs with 300+ carries last year and the only two who had more than Williams were Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.  Williams didn’t have the per carry average of those two but his offensive line wasn’t as good either. 

The offensive line can be good as a group but everyone has to be healthy and playing their best.  LT Alaric Jackson is dealing with blood clot issues to start training camp but is starting to work out already.  LG Steve Avila started last year playing center but was moved back to guard, he’s better there.  Beaux Limmer stepped in at center and played well enough but the team did re-sign veteran Coleman Shelton and it seems they are going with Shelton, I’m guessing Bears’ fans would advise against that.  RG Kevin Dotson has a big contract and can be very good.  RT Rob Havenstein is an aging veteran they are trying to squeeze every last ounce out of before they have to replace him.  This line is on the razor’s edge; they don’t have much depth if the five starters aren’t healthy or are struggling.  This line is “good enough” but they barely meet that threshold.   

Chris Shula took over the defense last year and did as good of a job as anyone could reasonably expect with a young defensive front, a suspect LB corps, and a secondary you can’t expect much out of. The team drafted a pair of Florida St. defenders in the first two rounds last year and it worked.  OLB Jared Verse was great and provided the outside pass rush they needed. He’s a power rusher who dominates at the point of attack and crushes the pocket.  DL Braden Fiske was the 3-4 DE they needed up front and he was good too. DL Kobie Turner has been excellent for his first two years in the league but this line was missing something, a dynamic run stuffer.  Bobby Brown III was fine but they upgraded when they stole Poona Ford from the Chargers.  Ford doesn’t look like the typical NT since he’s 5’11 310 lbs. but he’s a beast in the middle of a three-man line.  He will improve the run defense himself. OLB Byron Young is a good complementary speed rusher opposite Verse.

The Rams seem to have an aversion to good ILBs.  Former undrafted free agent Omar Speights will start at one ILB spot, he’s okay.  For now, it looks like former Falcon Nate Landman, another former undrafted free agent, will be the other guy.  Fifth-round pick Chris Paul Jr. out of Ole Miss seemed like a potential sleeper but clearly he was too good for them because they cut him.

The Rams secondary returns unchanged and that’s one of the bigger mysteries of the off season.  Did the Rams not watch their secondary last year?  CB Darious Williams is their top CB with Ahkello Witherspoon the other outside guy and Quentin Lake as the nickel.  This felt like an area they would address in the off season and they didn’t.  They picked up Emmanuel Forbes after the Commanders cut him last season, and he’s a former first-round pick, but he’s been terrible in his career.  There was some thought they would look to trade for former Ram Jalen Ramsey when Miami was looking to dump him but he got traded to Pittsburgh instead.  Kam Curl and Kamren Kitchens are fine as a safety duo but they aren’t exactly the most dynamic.  They are not the problem in the secondary and I shouldn’t lump them in with the underwhelming CB group. 

Seattle Seahawks

Mike Macdonald is an excellent defensive coach and with the players he has on that side of the ball, he could really raise the play there.  His first OC was Ryan Grubb and it didn’t go well, he decided to replace him after one year with Klink Kubiak.  Kubiak brings the Shanahan offense with him and it should be a great fit with the guys they have on offense.  However, the biggest change isn’t the offensive coordinator it’s the QB.

The team traded Geno Smith to the Raiders and signed Sam Darnold coming off his career resurgent season in Minnesota.  Darnold operated a similar offensive system last year with Kevin O’Connell and now he’ll get the Kubiak version of the offense.  It fits him well but he won’t have the same level of talent around him in the passing game as he had with the Vikings.  WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a very good player who is ascending but he’s not in the same class as Justin Jefferson.  He can be a #1 WR for sure but he’s a step below.  Cooper Kupp is 31-year-old WR but he might as well be 35 with all the punishment his body has taken and the injuries he’s dealt with.  They hope he’s got at least one good year left in him.  They signed Marqez Valdes-Scantling who played for Kubiak in New Orleans last season to be the downfield threat but they cut him at the end of the preseason.  Fifth-round WR Tory Horton got off to an excellent start in camp and he beat out MVS.  Horton is a truly talented player who had some unfortunate injury luck in his college career, if he’s healthy, he’s really good.  At TE, the team cut Noah Fant right before training camp and they will go with AJ Barner, a very good blocker, and rookie Elijah Arroyo, he’ll be the more dynamic weapon.

One player who should really benefit from the new offensive system is RB Kenneth Walker III.  The Shanahan offense is a zone based running scheme and Walker should find more holes to exploit and his burst and acceleration will be a great match.  That’s assuming Walker stays healthy, that’s been an issue for him.  Luckily for the Seahawks, Zach Charbonnett has looked excellent in the preseason.

 The entire offense is designed to help hide the deficiencies of the offensive line, the 49ers have been doing this for years.  The Seahawks actually have some talent on the line but this system will make those guys better and hopefully hide the problems they may still have.  LT Charles Cross is a talented player and as long as he’s healthy, his athleticism should thrive in this system.  The team drafted LG Gray Zabel in round one to fill that hole and he too is a good athlete who can excel in the system.  C Olu Oluwatimi stepped in last season when their center retired mid-season and he wasn’t bad.  He’s not the strongest player at his position but again, in this offense, that’s less of an issue.  The RG position was supposed to be a battle between Anthony Bradford and Christian Haynes but Bradford wins by default as Haynes went on IR.  RT Abe Lucas is a talented player who just needs to get healthy and stay that way. When he plays, he’s pretty good, he just misses far too many games and they don’t have any OT depth to speak of. 

Mike Macdonald can get the best out of this defense no matter who plays but the front office is trying to give him some real players to work with.  DE Leonard Williams was awesome last season and while he’s no spring chicken, he should have some good years left.  DE Jarran Reed is also aging but he’s rock solid.  They need second-year man Byron Murphy II to be the playmaker he was in college on the interior of the line.  He and Williams could be a devastating duo up front. 

This team needed pass rush help on the edge and signed Demarcus Lawrence from Dallas, he’s definitely not what he once was but he’s still solid. They would really love it if Uchenna Nwosu would get healthy on the other side but he’s already hurt in camp.  They have some depth with Derik Hall and Boye Mafe so they aren’t completely screwed by Nwosu’s injury.  The ILB were awful last year until they traded for Ernest Jones IV mid-season.  Macdonald needs a good ILB to run his defense and Jones is just that guy.  He stabilized the defense and now they hope he can elevate it in his second year.  Tyrice Knight was a solid partner for Jones but he’s still developing. 

The secondary has a chance to be one of the better secondaries in the league if a couple of things fall right.  CB Riq Woolen has an incredibly high ceiling but he can be very inconsistent.  He has the size and physical tools to be a Pro Bowler, now he just has to play like it.  Devon Witherspoon can play the other outside CB spot but his best spot is the nickel.  If Josh Jobe could hold down the second outside CB spot, that would allow Witherspoon to be the nickel and they could unleash him.  The X factor is second round safety Nick Emmanwori.  He’s one of the most athletic players you’ll ever see but his best spot is up for debate.  The Seahawks have been having him concentrate on learning the nickel spot because they have two good starting safeties.  SS Julian Love and FS Cobe Bryant are a very underrated duo. If the team can unlock Emmanwori and leave Witherspoon at outside CB or get one of the outside CBs to step up so Witherspoon is the nickel, this unit could be elite under Macdonald.   

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers had the season from hell last year with injuries all over the place to go along with some poor personnel moves over the years finally adding up.  The coaching staff had also had plenty of turnover and Kyle Shanahan didn’t do a great job of filling the holes last season.  There’s some turnover again, mostly on the defensive side, where it was badly needed.  Robert Saleh returns to the team as defensive coordinator after his tenure as the Jets head coach ended mid-season last year.  He’s an excellent defensive mind and has made some noted changes to get the defense back on track.  Shanahan is still one of the smartest offensive minds in the game but he did promote Klay Kubiak to offensive coordinator to acknowledge the job he’s doing.  Shanahan will still call plays but Kubiak is an important voice in the room.

QB Brock Purdy finally got his new contract extension this off season and it’s a big one.  Now the pressure is on him because the team needs him to raise the level of the play around him as his supporting cast is changing. The team traded Deebo Samuel who was a reliable target for Purdy.  WR Brandon Aiyuk is still rehabbing from a major knee injury and it’s not certain when he’ll be ready.  WR Jauan Jennings wants a new contract and he’s banged up.  That leaves an unproven Ricky Pearsall as the most reliable WR.  The other WRs they have are Russell Gage, who hasn’t been healthy in years and Skyy Moore, a former Chiefs bust.  Luckily, Purdy does still have TE George Kittle who had a great season last year.  He’s getting a bit older but doesn’t look to be slowing down just yet. 

The running game is always good under Shanahan and he proved that last year using Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo in place of Christian McCaffrey when he was hurt.  That said, the running game is a lot better if McCaffrey is healthy.   He’s still one of the most dynamic playmakers in football.  He’s 29 and he’s had a lot of touches in his career so they need to manage his workload to keep him healthy. They traded Jordan Mason in the off season and then saw a number of injuries at RB so they made a brilliant trade to get Brian Robinson Jr. from Washington.  He’s going to be a key piece of the offense to keep McCaffrey healthy.   

Shanahan’s offense is known for making the offensive line better than the sum of its parts and they are really putting that to the test.  LT Trent Williams will be 38 this year and he took some time off for personal reasons last season, he’s not going to be around forever.  They let LG Aaron Banks leave in free agency, it was smart not to pay him what the Packers are paying him, but they don’t have great replacement options. Ben Bartch is penciled in for now.  C Jake Brendel is fine but not great.  RG Dominic Puni played well for them as a rookie last year, it would be nice if he continues to develop. The problem is he was hurt in camp and his return is unknown. RT Colton McKivitz is somehow still the starter there.  They also lost OT Jaylon Moore to an overpay by the Chiefs in free agency but that means they have no depth on this line at all.  This line is one Trent Williams injury away from being very bad. 

The defense gets a makeover on the coaching staff and they didn’t stop there.  The 49ers were awful up front on defense last year as it was basically DE Nick Bosa and a bunch of guys you didn’t want starting.  They started the makeover with the draft taking DE Mykel Williams in round one.  He’s not a great pass rusher but he’s an excellent run defender already and he’ll start.  The run defense was terrible so they didn’t stop with Williams. At DT they have Jordan Elliot but they drafted Alfred Collins and CJ West in rounds two and four respectively in the draft.  Collins and West are going to be big for them whether they start or not.  GM John Lynch pulled off one more move to help up front.  He made a trade to get Bryce Huff from the Eagles as a designated pass rusher.  Huff was a bad free agent signing for the Eagles last year but he played well under Saleh in New York and should fill a need here. 

MLB Fred Warner is still one of the best in the league but he’s working with an unproven group around him.  Dee Winters was a sixth-round pick in the 2023 who stepped in when Dre Greenlaw was hurt last season but doesn’t have much experience. The other likely LB is rookie third-round pick Nick Martin.  He’s fast but a little undersized and has no experience. Saleh has his work cut out for him with this group but even more so with the secondary. 

At CB, Deommodore Lenoir will have to step into the CB1 spot with Charvarius Ward leaving for Indy.  He’s a good player but it’s a big step up for him.  Renardo Green was solid as a rookie but now he’s moving up the depth chart too.  They are also counting on rookie Upton Stout to be the slot corner.  The safety spot is also beat up.  Ji’Ayir Brown and Malik Mustapha are supposed to be the starters but both are injured and Mustapha starts the year on the PUP list. For now, it’s rookie Marques Sigle, a fifth-round pick and Jason Pinnock, a career backup.  It could get ugly fast if they don’t get pressure up front. 

Arizona Cardinals

This will be year three for head coach Jonathan Gannon, OC Drew Petzing, and DC Nick Rallis and it’s time to take a step forward.  The offense should have consistency at least with almost no turnover in personnel.  They are looking for development from the young guys and for Kyler Murray to step up.  On defense they needed a lot of help and they made some major upgrades in personnel, especially on the front. 

QB Kyler Murray is going into his seventh year in the league and he needs to take a step forward if this offense is going to succeed.  Last year was his first full year in the offense after missing the first half of 2023 coming off a knee injury.  He had 11 interceptions last season and that’s a little high considering he only had 21 TDs.  It’s on Murray to find ways to improve because the team didn’t get him any real help, they are running it back on offense. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t have a great season as a rookie but contrary to some opinions, he wasn’t bad.  WR Michael Wilson is probably the WR2 with Greg Dortch set to be the slot guy.  It’s not a great group and veteran Zay Jones is the next guy.  TE Trey McBride did have a breakout season last year as he lived up to his talent.  He’s the top target although they would like to get Harrison to be that guy.

The running game was effective last year with James Connor leading the way.  Connor is a solid back but they hope to get Trey Benson more involved to add a more dynamic element to the run game.  The offensive line isn’t teeming with great talent but they work well as a unit.  LT Paris Johnson Jr. is a good player.  C Hjalte Froholdt has turned into a competent center.  LG Evan Brown returns after a decent year while RG Isaiah Adams steps in full-time at RG.  RT Jonah Williams missed most of last season and they hope to have him back this year.  They don’t have depth to count on so they need these guys to be healthy. 

The defensive front has undergone a major revamp.  Veterans DE Calais Campbell and DT Dalvin Tomlinson were signed to give the front some much needed heft and consistency.  Add in the return of last year’s first-round pick Darius Robinson and you have a whole new look up front.  They also drafted Walter Nolen III in round one this year but he’s injured to start the year.  Pushing guys like Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols to backup roles also helps the depth up front. 

They also spent big to get themselves a new pass rusher in Josh Sweat.  He is coming off a good year in Philadelphia where he once played for Jonathan Gannon.  OLB Baron Browning should start opposite Sweat with BJ Ojulari eventually returning from injury as the third guy.  LB Zaven Collins has been a pass rusher for a few years but the team is also looking at him back at ILB where he played early in his career.  The have Mack Wilson returning at one ILB spot and then they signed Akeem Davis-Gaither as the new running mate inside.  They aren’t a dynamic duo but they are a solid pair.   

The secondary has some nice pieces but besides FS Budda Baker they lack top-end talent.  Or at least they did until round two of the draft when they stole CB Will Johnson.  They have needed a CB1 for a few a while and Will Johnson had some injury history and some speed questions that had him fall to round two of the draft.  He’s a massive steal and he’s looked awesome in camp and should be their top CB immediately.  Max Melton is their second-year guy who can be the CB2 with Garrett Williams as the nickel guy.  That’s a decent trio to go to work with.  Baker teams with SS Jalen Thompson who is an underrated player.  The secondary could be good if the team can get a pass rush up front to help them out.