Tag: college-football

2025 QB Prospects Top 5

I don’t usually do this but this draft is so weird it’s hard to do mock drafts right now.  There are six teams in the top 10 that need a QB and it’s a stretch in my mind to put two in the first round.  I thought I’d do a prospect board with my Top 5 guys at each position and then maybe someone outside the Top 5 worth mentioning.  Let’s take a look at the QB position. 

Quarterbacks

1. Cam Ward (Miami):  Ward is my top player at QB.  He’s a good athlete, great arm, and has mobility in the pocket that comes in quite handy.  His game feels a bit chaotic at times but he’s always in control.  He’s not the tallest guy but it doesn’t hinder him.  He isn’t an elite prospect and he should probably be a mid-first round pick but he’s going in the top three because there are teams desperate for QBs in the top three.  I like Ward, I don’t love Ward.  

2. Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): He’s a good player, he’s not a great one.  He is somewhere between Brock Purdy and Jared Goff as a player.  He’s not a great athlete and his arm is good but nowhere near elite.  He’s started for five years so he has plenty of reps under his belt.  He has the confidence and leadership ability of a starting QB but if he goes to a team with a lesser supporting cast, he isn’t going to raise the play of the guys around him.  His success is completely dependent on fit.  

3. Quinn Ewers (Texas):  I might be the only guy out on this island right now but if I have to take a shot on a QB in this draft not named Cam Ward, I’m taking a day two (round two or three) shot on Ewers.  From a physical talent standpoint, he’s as good as anyone in this class.  When he’s on, he’s awesome, unfortunately, he’s not always on.  His inconsistency is maddening but his upside is tantalizing.  I would much prefer Ewers on day two than taking Sanders in round one, it’s a question of opportunity cost.  He’s falling behind guys like Jalen Milroe and Jaxson Dart in the eyes of a lot of scouts but I’m not sold on those guys either. 

4. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss):  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and Dart does some good things but there is something lacking in his game.  Lane Kiffin’s offense makes it pretty simple for the QB so I’m not sure Dart reads the field very well.  He’s a really good athlete but is sometimes too quick to pull the ball down and run when his first read isn’t there.  This may also be because he doesn’t really read much beyond the first or second read.  He does have an accurate arm but he doesn’t have elite arm strength. 

5. Jalen Milroe (Alabama):  I have never been overly impressed with him as a QB.  As an athlete, he’s awesome but at this point he’s a lesser man’s Anthony Richardson, and that is not a complement.  Milroe has a rocket for an arm but has absolutely no touch on any of his passes under 20 yards.  There is a big difference between arm strength and arm talent.  Milroe has arm strength, he can throw it a mile, but he doesn’t have the arm talent to put the ball where it needs to be with the right velocity to get it there and make the pass catchable.  He had a rough last season at Alabama and then his Senior Bowl week was not helpful, he was essentially invisible. 

*Other player to note: Will Howard (Ohio St.): Strange to say Will Howard is a little under the radar since he just led Ohio St. to a National Championship but it really wasn’t until the college football playoffs that his draft stock started to tick up.  He has great size at around 6’4 235 lbs. and he’s got some mobility to him.  Howard has a strong arm that needs a little work on the touch passes but he knows how to play QB.  If the choice is taking Quinn Ewers, Jaxson Dart, or Jalen Milroe on day two or taking Howard on day three, I would seriously consider waiting and taking Howard.  The odds of Howard becoming a legitimate starting QB vs. those three doing it, is not that different.  

2025 Hawkeye Worries

I’m officially worried about the Iowa Hawkeye football program. I feel like I’ve seen this before.  I came to Iowa as a freshman in the fall of 1997 with an Iowa football team that had some exciting players on it and ended that season a disappointing 7-5.  This year’s version of the Hawkeyes feels a bit similar with the way things are going.  Kaleb Johnson was the offense and he was excellent.  While a lot of people compared him to Shonn Greene, there are more similarities to 1997’s Tavian Banks.  Banks was a superstar that season, he was big play waiting to happen and he carried Iowa’s offense.  The Hawkeyes also had one of the most electrifying returners in college football, Tim Dwight.  Punt to him at your own risk.  Dwight was supposed to be a big part of the offense but was largely a decoy and wasn’t nearly as important to the offense as Banks.  Kaden Wetjen isn’t Tim Dwight on offense, but he is a scary returner if you’re the opposing team. Wetjen isn’t anything more than a gadget player on offense, Dwight was more than that for sure but the Iowa passing game wasn’t exactly exciting.  The ’97 Hawkeyes also had WR Damon Gibson, a good player.  The ’24 Hawkeyes have Jacob Gill, a good player.  There were some young, talented WRs in ’97, Kevin Kasper and Tony Collins.  In 2024 we have Jarriett Buie, Reese Vander Zee, and Dayton Howard.  Any of those guys could become Kevin Kasper and have a great Hawkeye career, or they could become Collins, a guy who looked great early and just never put it all together.  The offensive line had some good upperclassmen in Mike Goff and Jeremy McKinney and guys like Derek Rose and Chad Deal were solid.  The 2024 line has been pretty good and has some upperclassmen playing good football, Mason Richman, Connor Colby, and Logan Jones. 

The QB situation is more like 1996 when Matt Sherman was starting but everyone wanted to see Ryan Driscoll and what he could do.  The backup QB being the fan favorite is a tale as old as football.  Cade McNamara wishes he was Matt Sherman, and unfortunately, I don’t think Brendan Sullivan is Driscoll or Sherman.  Once again, an Iowa season is undone by a lack of talent at QB.  McNamara was never the guy he once was at Michigan, you can blame the injuries, you can blame the supporting cast, or you can blame the offensive scheme, but McNamara just wasn’t the same player.  Sullivan is what he is, he’s nice change-of-pace QB who should be used in certain packages, he’s not the full-time starter.   

In 1998 Matt Sherman had graduated and the Hawkeyes had a three-way competition at QB between Kyle McCann, a freshman, and the two returning guys from the depth chart, Randy Reiners and Scott Mullen.  They would eventually all play at some point over the next couple of seasons but they just weren’t good enough.  Brendan Sullivan’s play in the Music City Bowl showed his limitations.   Iowa needs a better passing QB next season because it’s going to be tougher when Kaleb Johnson is in the NFL.  No disrespect to Jaziun Patterson, Kamari Moulton, and the other young backs at Iowa, I really like the talent, but expecting any of them to be Johnson next year is insane.  The passing game has to be better and the Music City Bowl confirmed that it won’t be if Sullivan is running the offense. 

The good news in 2024 is the Hawkeyes have something the 1998 Hawkeyes didn’t have, the transfer portal.  You can hate the portal but if used correctly it can change your entire outlook for next season.  There are three things that can hurt Iowa when looking for a QB in the portal.  The first one is, QBs are expensive and while Iowa’s collective has money, they aren’t ever going to compete at the top of the market.  The second issue is the reputation of Iowa’s offense, it’s bad and while I think Tim Lester has done a good job changing the scheme, you have to show players it works before they will believe you.  That’s hard to do with the QB’s Iowa has had lately.  The third thing that could be a problem is Kirk Ferentz’s loyalty to the guys already on his team.  Iowa didn’t get a lot of looks last season from QBs in the portal because Ferentz’s insistence that McNamara was the starting QB regardless of the fact, he had only played four games the previous season and wasn’t all that great in those games.  If QBs thought they would have a chance to compete for the starting job, perhaps Iowa gets a QB transfer at semester instead of having to wait for Sullivan.  He didn’t transfer until the summer after not winning the QB job at Northwestern.  Ferentz needs to stay out of the way this time, let Tim Lester find a QB he likes and get a guy at semester who can beat out the competition for the starting job.  If Sullivan doesn’t like that, he can move on and Iowa can move on with a new transfer QB and Hank Brown, the developmental guy they already got to replace Marco Lainez.  If they don’t get another transfer QB, then every Iowa fan better hope Hank Brown can beat out Brendan Sullivan to be the starter because the Music City Bowl was not a good look for Sullivan. He simply isn’t the passer you need to run an offense effectively.  His reads are too slow, he’s not decisive in his throws, and he lacks the quick trigger it takes to run Tim Lester’s offense.    

Now, let’s look at why I’m even more worried we are looking at a Hayden Fry 1998-like drop off for the Iowa program.  This roster has enjoyed some stability because of the extra Covid year granted to so many players.  That is about to run out for almost everyone and it’s going to hit Iowa hard, especially the defense. The defense was the reason Iowa lost two of its games this season, Michigan St. and UCLA.  They also struggled against Missouri in the bowl game.  The defense got destroyed against MSU and UCLA and that’s not a good sign.  The bigger issue is losing so much talent and experience from this team.  DE Deontae Craig, DT Yahya Black, LB Nick Jackson, LB Jay Higgins, LB Kyler Fisher, FS Quinn Schulte, CB Jermari Harris, and CASH Sebastian Castro, will all be gone next season.  That’s a major mountain to climb.  The top DE, the top DT, all three starting LBs, the top CB, and your best and most versatile defender, Castro.  I usually give Phil Parker the benefit of the doubt, but that’s a whole lot of production to replace with guys who haven’t played much at all.  If the defense falls off to a level closer to the Michigan St/UCLA game defense, Iowa is in trouble, and offense would have to be astronomically better to make up the difference. 

On offense, they will have a stable of RBs to work with (Patterson and Moulton, plus Terrell Washington Jr, Xavier Williams, and Brevin Doll).  Jacob Gill can be a solid WR (the terrible drop against Missouri not withstanding).  Reece Vander Zee has loads of potential and Jarriett Buie and Dayton Howard still have promise.  We can hope Seth Anderson gets healthy but that feels like the hope you get when you buy a lottery ticket, deep down you know it’s not going your way.  Iowa is always good at TE and they still will be with Addison Ostrenga, Zach Ortwerth, and some freshmen coming up.  The offensive line got a boost with C Logan Jones returning for another year.  Jones and RT Gennings Dunker are a good place to start and if LG Beau Stephens can stay healthy, that’s three returning starters.  Kade Pieper should step into Connor Colby’s RG spot and he’s played snaps since he was a true freshman two years ago.  When the coaches use a true freshman on the offensive line, it means they see some real talent.  The team struck out on the LT from Rice the were hoping to get in the portal but Trevor Lauck should be ready to step in after he ascended to be the backup LT this season.  He’s a young guy and doesn’t have playing experience at LT but he was a highly rated recruit coming out of high school and the coaches need to hit on someone at LT or this team will suffer.          

Hayden Fry was in his 19th season at Iowa in 1997 and it was clear the end was near.  Kirk Ferentz is in year 26 and it’s not so clear when the end is coming but it should be sooner than you think if things go the way they could.  In 1998 the bottom dropped out for Hayden and Hawkeyes won 3 games. Fry walked away and Iowa hired Ferentz after they botched the Bob Stoops thing.  In 2025, if the Hawkeyes don’t find a QB they can count on, they could be facing a similar fate.  Are we in for a slow steady decline to the end of the Ferentz era or is next season the cliff? Next year’s schedule has Oregon and Penn St., two of the better teams in the conference. The four rivalry games; Iowa St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska, three of those on the road, and none of those are ever easy.  Indiana might not be as good as they were this year but they won’t be a cupcake.  The Hawkeyes get Michigan St. at Kinnick but they beat the Hawks last season in Jonathan Smith’s first year, something tells me they might be better in his second year.  That leaves road game at USC and at Rutgers, not exactly guaranteed wins.  It’s a good thing Iowa plays Albany and UMass.

The good news is there are still some good QBs in the portal like South Dakota St.’s Mark Gronowski.  The bad news is Iowa isn’t the only team looking for a starting QB and other schools have more to sell a QB on.  There will be more in the portal but are they upgrades over Sullivan or Hank Brown?  That’s hard to say.  Iowa Hawkeye football may be at a crossroads and I’m not sure it’s clear on the direction it’s heading.  Kirk Ferentz isn’t getting fired this off season, his contract is simply too prohibitive for that to happen.  (Thanks again for that Gary Barta.)  An 8-4 season and another trip to the Music City Bowl feels way too optimistic for the 2025 Iowa Hawkeyes, even 7-5 feels pretty tough at the moment.  If the bottom falls out on a 70 year old Kirk Ferentz, does Beth Goetz have the ability to push Kirk into retirement for the overall health of the program?  Would a 3-9 regular season be enough to raise the money to buyout his contract?  Can Kirk Ferentz and Tim Lester work magic in the portal late in process and pull a rabbit out of the hat to save the QB position and the 2025 season?  Can Phil Parker work a miracle to replace about 8 starters on his defense and revamp the unit that let the team down multiple times this season?  There are a lot of questions to be answered in 2025 for Iowa Hawkeyes.  Happy New Year…we hope.