2013 NFL Preview    NFC

NFC East

What happens when an entire division goes 8-8?  The NFC East is the reason why I’m not going to predict overall records just the order I suspect the teams to finish in the division.  There is something I love and something I hate about each one of these teams and this division will be decided by which team puts it together on both sides of the football first.

Washington Redskins: 

Mike Shananhan struck gold twice in the 2012 Draft with Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris and he covered the team’s collective ass when he spent another pick on QB Kirk Cousins.  Washington says they are going to dial down Griffin’s running but I’ll believe that when I see it, luckily for them 12 or 13 games of Griffin with 3 or 4 games of Cousins should work just fine.  Pierre Garcon is huge addition to the offense after he missed most of last year with injuries.  The defense still could have issues but a healthy Brian Orakpo would make a world of difference.  The loss of rookie FS Phillip Thomas hurts more than anyone realizes as he could have been a playmaker in the secondary.

New York Giants:

They have Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle and Brandon Myers so the passing game should be fine.  An injury to their center shuffled their line moving David Diehl inside and putting rookie first round draft pick Justin Pugh at RT and that’s a serious upgrade.  Manning would have gotten killed with Diehl at RT, he was a turnstile there and that’s an insult to turnstiles because at least they put up a little resistance.  They are hoping David Wilson lives up to his potential and if he does they will be tough offensively.  The Giants defense was ravaged by injury last year and a return to health would be huge.  Unfortunately I still don’t like their LB’s and in a division with Alfred Morris, LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick and DeMarco Murray (at least until he’s hurt) having subpar LB’s is a problem

Dallas Cowboys:

Monte Kiffin deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame for the way he has already gotten the defense to step up in their transition.  Kiffin hasn’t been beholden to his Tampa-2 principles so much that he’s not utilizing the talent he has on hand.  He has let his CB’s play man-to-man to take advantage of their skills.  We will see how it all holds up throughout the season but Monte Kiffin’s genius is back, it’s surprising none of it rubbed off on his son.  Tony Romo has plenty of weapons; Dez Bryant (primed for a huge year), Miles Austin (finally healthy?), Jason Witten (one of the best TE’s in football) and DeMarco Murray (at least for the first few weeks).  Unfortunately the Cowboys offensive line is still in trouble and I don’t know if they can save it this late.  I still fully expect Murray to be hurt by week 5 and eventually Joseph Randle will be the running back.  They have other running backs that have been there but Randle’s talent will take him up the depth chart eventually.

Philadelphia Eagles:

Chip Kelly is an offensive genius and with a healthy and productive offensive line and Michael Vick the Eagles offense has hummed right along during the preseason despite losing a couple of good WR’s.  However, Chip Kelly’s genius has its limits and unless this team wins a lot of games 42-35 it could be a tough year.  Philadelphia’s transition to the 3-4 defense has been rough to say the least and the only reason they might not rank last in pass defense is because it looks like they are going to give up about a 250 yards rushing a game.  Quick fantasy note: if you need a RB for a week and the guy starting against the Eagles is available take him, I don’t care who he is, pick him up.

NFC North

This is the Packers division to lose and the only way they don’t win it is if one of the other teams plays out of their minds.  The Bears have new coaches, the Lions were awful last year and the Vikings have Christian Ponder at QB.  I think it’s the Packers and then everyone else fighting for second so don’t hold me to this predicted order of finish after the Pack.

Green Bay Packers:

When in doubt go with the best QB and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best in the league not just his division.  The only thing that unravels this team is a bad offensive line.  The loss of Bryan Bulaga is going to be tough because he was looking like a beast at LT before the injury.  They are so convinced Marshall Newhouse isn’t the answer that they left him at RT and are giving rookie David Bakhtiari every chance at the LT job.  Eddie Lacy should finally give Rodgers a running game to rely on too.  If Nick Perry can step up and give just a semblance of a pass rush opposite Clay Matthews the defense could be good.   Stability in the coaching staff and the best QB gives the division to the Packers.

Detroit Lions:

This team is like the Eagles for me; I like their offense but hate the defense.  I think Reggie Bush may be the most underrated addition in the offseason for anyone in the league.  Last season Matthew Stafford had one weapon, Calvin Johnson, and everyone knew it.  I think we see the Bush from New Orleans in terms of his use more than the every down back he was in Miami and that’s a good thing.  While Johnson is taking the defense deep to cover him Stafford can get Bush the ball in space and let him work.  The defense scares me though.  The defensive line should be good but the linebackers and the secondary are suspect.  The Lions secondary has been terrible for years and they seem to ignore it year after year.  Darius Slay would be a nice nickel CB but he’s already listed as a starter.  He wasn’t even the best starting CB on his college team last season (he was teammates with Buccaneer’s rookie Jonathan Banks).

Chicago Bears:

Jay Cutler has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett as weapons in new coach Marc Trestman’s offense, that’s the good news.  The bad news is that his best offensive lineman is Jermon Bushrod.  Bushrod is barely an upgrade at LT over new RT J’Marcus Webb, Matt Slauson and Kyle Long should be an upgrade at the guard spots but I still think Cutler is going to end up on his back far too often.  The Bears defense should be okay for another year but replacing the 35 year old Brian Urlacher with the 31 year old DJ Williams isn’t exactly what I had in mind for the defense getting younger.  Of course DJ Williams already got hurt and now rookie Jon Bostic will likely start at MLB.  New coaching staff, old defense and suspect offensive line means this season could end up in the playoffs or it could completely implode.  I think it’s going to be a long year for Bears fans.

Minnesota Vikings:

The Vikings have the best RB in the NFL, they have the best offensive line in this division and their defense should be fine, not great but fine.  There is one reason why I’m picking them last in the division…Christian Ponder.  The only QB in the league that is hoping his new top WR has lost a step because he knows he can’t throw it far enough for him if he hasn’t.  Matt Cassel may have gone from being the most unpopular guy in Kansas City to being the most popular guy in Minneapolis, at least until he has to play then Vikings fans will learn to hate him just as much.  Adrian Peterson says he’s going for 2500 yards this year, well he better because with Ponder playing his usual 12 games and Cassel subbing in the other four that Ponder misses due to injury the Vikings are going to need AD (yes that’s his nickname, it’s stands for All Day) to get every one of those 2500 yards.  And just to be clear yes I think last year was a fluke I don’t see the Vikings going 10-6 this year, so they will probably win the division.

NFC South

The Falcons and the Saints should be the cream of the crop here with the return of Sean Payton getting the Saints back on track.  Neither team has a great defense but both offenses should be able to make up the difference.  Tampa Bay needs the schizophrenic Josh Freeman to settle in and the Panthers need a new defense.

Atlanta Falcons:

This is the NFC team I’m rooting for this season and if the Patriots can’t win the Super Bowl I hope the Falcons do and it’s all because of Tony Gonzalez.  Gonzalez was going to retire but he’s still playing at an elite level and this team is so close to Super Bowl contention he couldn’t pass up the chance.  Replacing Michael Turner with Steven Jackson is a serious upgrade to the offense and the only concern on that side of the ball is the right side of the offensive line.  I really would have liked to see the Falcons get a guy like Eric Winston at RT but I think their offense will still be great.  The Falcons need Osi Umenyiora to find his pass rush again and Desmond Trufant should really help in the secondary.  The defense just has to be average and the offense can carry this team.

New Orleans Saints:

What a difference a head coach makes.  The return of Sean Payton is the biggest addition to a team that simply needs to forget last year.  The addition of Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator is the second biggest.  Ryan knows how to make a defense and while he’s trying to convert this defense I think he can make it work.  Drew Brees will have the offense moving right along with Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore and Darren Sproles if they could get anything out of Mark Ingram that would be a bonus.  It’s the defense that is the question mark, they haven’t been good in quite some time and Ryan needs to get the personnel to fit his 3-4 scheme.  The recent loss of Will Smith, their best pass rusher hurts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

The Greg Schiano experiment is in full effect now and it has a chance to be a huge success or it could be Chernobyl.  Josh Freeman wilted under the high expectations last season and the defense suffered multiple injuries and secondary was just plain bad.  Replacing 75% of the starting secondary was a good start as only SS Mark Barron returns.  Big acquisitions Derrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson should pay immediate dividends and the healthy return of DE’s Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers is of the utmost importance.  Freeman has to figure out which QB he really is because with the exception of TE he has some great weapons around him.  Doug Martin proved to be a great RB last season and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are a very good starting duo at WR.  The offensive line is solid so this offense will go as far as Freeman takes it, unless Schiano pulls the plug and hands the reigns to rookie Mike Glennon.  If that happens Buccaneer fans should duck and cover.

Carolina Panthers:

I look at the Panthers offensive depth chart and with the exception of the right side of the offensive line it looks fine, but that’s on paper.  DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in the backfield means you should have a running game but it just doesn’t work out that way on the field.  Cam Newton was supposed to revolutionize the QB position and then came RGIII, he’s like the new version of the iPhone.  By the way, Andrew Luck will win a Super Bowl before either of these two.  I’m not kidding, name the last running QB to win a Super Bowl?  No really, I’ll wait…don’t say Steve Young, he stopped running long before he won a Super Bowl that’s why he threw for 6 TD’s in that game.  Sorry, tangent over.  The Panthers defense has the mighty Luke Kuechly in the middle flanked by two guys made out of tissue paper, Thomas Davis and Jon Beason.  The defensive line looks okay with the addition of Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short but the secondary is atrocious.  When Drayton Florence is your best CB you are beyond needing help you need a complete overhaul.

NFC West

All media outlets were apparently contractually obligated to refer to this division as the “toughest division in the National Football League” this season.  I’d disagree if I actually disagreed but they’re right.  San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick all year and that defense, Seattle with Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and their defense, St. Louis is likely to be the most improved team of the year and even the Cardinals look like they can put up a fight.

San Francisco 49ers:

It’s tough to go against the defending NFC Champions when they return almost everyone of note.  They are going to miss Michael Crabtree until comes back (if he can come back at the end of the year) but let’s be honest he’s Michael Crabtree not Jerry Rice.  I think Jim Harbaugh is going to get creative with Kaepernick and make this offense a tough match up.  Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, a great offensive line, Frank Gore and a stable of running backs to rely on will carry this offense.  The defense is built on great players like Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, and Navarro Bowman and it is the best defense in the league.

Seattle Seahawks:

The Seahawks are going to give the 49ers all they can handle in this division and their team is stacked to do it.  They better hope that Russell Wilson stays healthy though because their back-up QB’s are Tavaris Jackson and Brady Quinn, even Marshawn Lynch can’t carry an offense led by either of those two.  Wilson is a playmaker, he buys time with his feet and finds the open man down field.  They already lost their big offensive acquisition of the year Percy Harvin but it looks like Golden Tate is finally ready to live up to his considerable talent and become the go-to WR on this team.  Their defense is built off of no-name players that play lights out together.  Richard Sherman became the big name last year due to his big mouth and he’s penchant for backing up his words with his play.  Somehow during his time at USC Pete Carroll learned to coach and his rivalry with Jim Harbaugh is highly entertaining.

St. Louis Rams:

Chris Givens, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook and especially Jake Long have become Sam Bradford’s new best friends on the Rams roster.  Givens was there last year but he has really stepped up this year.  Austin brings a game-breaking ability this offense has been lacking.  Jared Cook is the first real pass catching threat Bradford has had in his pro career and Jake Long will finally give Bradford some peace protecting his blindside.  Daryl Richardson flashed last season and has staked his claim to the RB job this fall and he should be fine.  The Rams defense was better than you probably realized last season and they added one of the biggest playmaking LB’s in the draft, Alec Ogletree is going to be a star (if he stays out of trouble).

Arizona Cardinals:

Levi Brown returning healthy at LT and the addition of Eric Winston at RT should be enough to help keep new QB Carson Palmer upright and that should make a passing game with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts pretty potent.  Brown isn’t an elite LT but he’s a considerable upgrade over last year’s LT’s.  If they can keep Palmer off his back he should be perfect in Bruce Arians downfield passing attack.  Rashard Mendenhall might get hurt and Ryan Williams is always hurt so it’s a good thing they drafted dark horse rookie RB Stepfan Taylor out of Stanford.  He should be starting by week 6 and he’s pretty good.  The biggest loss on defense was actually coordinator Ray Horton but this defense will benefit simply by not having to be on the field the whole time.  There is some good talent on defense if you give them a moment to catch their breath once in a while.  This is going to be a tough fourth place in the division team, no easy outs in the NFC West.

Playoff Predictions and overall league review, including MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and offensive and defensive Rookie of the Year picks will come after my AFC preview.

Observations and Impressions from Hawkeye’s Open Practice

QB position has a definite order

Jake Rudock is the leader in the clubhouse for the starting job and while Kirk Ferentz wouldn’t actually confirm it officially the scrimmage told the story.  Rudock lined up with the first team offense against the first team defense almost exclusively.  CJ Beathard and Cody Sokol rotated with the second team and while they made flashier plays they did it playing against the second team defense.  Beathard has the lead to be the back-up but Sokol played fine too.  It looks like the real competition here is between Beathard and Sokol for the back-up job and the next two weeks of practice will be spent fine tuning Rudock’s game and deciding what to do behind him.  While Beathard and Sokol both made more big plays than Rudock during the scrimmage if you watched closely I would say it had more to do with the first team WR’s struggling against the first team defense while the second team WR’s did a much better job against their counterparts.  One thing I noticed more during the pre-scrimmage drills that makes me like Rudock is the speed in which he delivers the ball on short routes.  Last season the quick out to the WR was one of the least effective plays the Hawkeyes ran and while some of that was due to WR’s lacking big play skills it was actually more because James Vandenberg was too slow to get the ball out to the WR giving the defense ample time to diagnose the play.  Rudock looks quick, decisive and accurate running this play and that should put the receivers in a position to make plays.

It’s doubtful that the WR position is settled

Disappointing doesn’t begin to describe the feeling I had watching Don Shumpert line up with the first team offense to start the scrimmage.  Kevonte Martin-Manley was a no-brainer and it was great to see Damon Bullock split out wide on the first play but Shumpert was a surprise.  Tevaun Smith has been listed as a starter and he lined up with the second team along with Damond Powell and Riley McCarron.  The good news is that Powell and Smith were the stars of the scrimmage and Shumpert played like Shumpert.  Powell was the unquestionable star of the day with a great TD catch from Beathard and another big play from Sokol followed by another long play after the team stopped tackling.  The best news is the Powell has only been with the team for two weeks and he’s already playing like this, give him two more weeks and I don’t care who starts the Northern Illinois game Powell will be the difference maker.  I don’t know what it is the coaches see in Don Shumpert, I’ve been watching this kid for four years and he has no receiver instincts.  Powell barely knows the offense but he knows how to get open, how to set up a defensive back and he’s a natural pass catcher, all traits that Shumpert still lacks.  I mentioned how Rudock was playing against the first team defense and it was Shumpert, Martin-Manley and Bullock that were struggling to get open for him while Powell and Smith were having their way against the second team.  I would have liked to have seen Powell and Smith get a chance against the first team defense and I suspect that either one of them would have done better than Shumpert.

Bullock looked comfortable at WR and I suspect he won’t come off the field much as he lined up at WR for the first two downs and then moved to tailback on third down.  The Hawkeyes have to get the ball in his hands in space because he can be a playmaker.  Riley McCarron looks small on the field but the kid can get open and he catches everything he gets his hands on.  Kevonte Martin-Manley was quiet but he spent most of his day lined up against BJ Lowery or Jordan Lomax and he didn’t see a lot of targets so it’s understandable.  The young guys look like they are still learning but I have to say I was impressed, physically they look like they could contribute if needed.

Daniels is going to make it interesting at RB

I mentioned in my preview that LeShun Daniels is the only freshman that is physically ready to contribute and boy was I underselling it.  Weisman is the starter and he struggled as the first team defense played well against the first team offense.  Weisman is what he is, a big powerful straight ahead runner that will punish the defense.  He doesn’t run away from people and it looked as though the Hawkeyes would count on Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock to be the game breakers in the backfield.  With Bullock moving out to WR for the most part it seemed Canzeri would be the main compliment to Weisman but Daniels isn’t going to make it that easy on the coaches.  Ferentz basically said they expect Daniels to play this season and not redshirt which means he’s already passed by Barkley Hill (who sat out the open practice) and Mike Malloy (who played behind Daniels).  Anyone watching Daniels on Saturday would make the obvious comparison to Shonn Greene and it certainly looks appropriate.  Daniels is powerful with great feet and balance, he has a strong base and more speed than you would expect out of a guy his size.  He is a freshman so pass protection and blitz pick up are the things he needs to work on and Ferentz is unlikely to trust him until he proves himself in that part of the game.  However, if Weisman struggles or gets injured like last season it won’t be the least bit shocking if it is Daniels taking over the bulk of the carries and not Canzeri.  Oh and given the lack of experience at fullback when the Hawkeyes get into short yardage or goal line situations they may want to consider lining up Weisman and fullback followed by Daniels; that would be a tough backfield to deny.

The offensive line will be just fine

Brandon Scherff is a monster and it’s safe to say he’s fully recovered from his injury and if you don’t believe me just go ask the DE’s that he was manhandling most of the day.  Van Sloten has his RT position on lockdown too so the edges are just fine.  It’s tough to get a great sense of the interior of the line watching them live but they did struggle against Carl Davis and I’m going chalk that up to Davis continuing his great play from the spring and the guard spots not being settled.  Conor Boffeli wasn’t suited up so Andrew Donnal started at LG and he has a shot at that job.  Jordan Walsh started at RG and he was in more of a rotation and that’s where it gets interesting.  Someone I forgot to mention in my preview because he wasn’t in the two deeps and he hasn’t played much is Nolan MacMillan.  MacMillan has constantly battled injuries while at Iowa but during the few moments he’s been healthy (moments is barely an exaggeration) the coaching staff has loved the way he played.  He rotated in at both guard spots and if he’s healthy he’s a possibility as a back-up tackle.  It would be a great story if this oft injured senior could stay healthy and contribute on the line.  The only injury that happened during the scrimmage was Eric Simmons injuring his leg while playing second team center and while he needed a lot of help to get off the field he actually returned to action later so no harm done.

Ferentz wasn’t kidding about his TE’s

Kirk Ferentz made reference to playing five TE’s this season and it appears he meant it.  CJ Fiedorowicz is an imposing figure and he seems poised for breakout season.  Ray Hamilton and Henry Krieger-Coble saw plenty of action.  Jake Duzey lined up all over the field and was targeted a number of times.  None of this is much of a surprise but George Kittle’s playing time might be.  Kittle is a still undersized redshirt freshman that actually lined up out wide quite a few times.  I’m not sure if Kittle is an undersized TE or an overgrown WR but either way it looks like the coaching staff plans to use him in the passing game.

The defensive tackles will make the defensive ends better

My expectations for the defensive line this season are that they will be better and that the pass rush will come as much from the DT position as it will from the DE position, thank you Carl Davis you are going to make me look like a genius.  While the defensive line wasn’t getting sacks (not that they were allowed to tackle the QB anyway) they were getting a push.  The light came on for Carl Davis in the spring and it’s going to shine brightly this season.  You would think a 6’5 315 pound DT would just be a big run stuffer but Davis collapsed the pocket right in the middle and is going to make life tough on opposing QB’s and opposing RB’s are going to hate him too.  Louis Trinca-Pasat has reclaimed his starting spot after missing spring practice and he’s pretty good too.  Dominic Alvis looks better and we may see a return to his pre-injury form.  Drew Ott was the surprise as he no longer looks so undersized, if he can bring some pressure from the outside the defensive line a chance to be pretty good.  Nate Meier was probably the biggest surprise, not necessarily for his play but for the fact that he rotated in as a pass rushing specialist with the first unit and played a lot on the second team.  He’s not the biggest DE and so he won’t hold up playing a lot of downs but as specialist he could be a big contributor.

The linebackers are good, no kidding. 

Nothing really stood out about the starting linebackers but they were free to run since the defensive line was playing better and that’s a good sign.  The one back-up I noticed make a couple of nice athletic plays was Travis Perry.  Just a few times I noticed him in on some plays and he has really grown into a nice linebacker.  The one young guy I noticed was Reggie Spearman, he has good instincts and is a fluid athlete but he’s pretty undersized so let’s hope he doesn’t have to play this year.

Talent and depth all over the secondary

BJ Lowery and Jordan Lomax are going to be a fantastic set of CB’s and they are going to make it tough on opposing QB’s.  Sean Draper may eventually be better than either one of them and that may come this year.  When you lose the Big 10 Defensive Back of the Year in Micah Hyde it’s tough to believe your CB’s could actually be better but Lowery is going to be a star and won’t back down from anyone and Lomax just needs playing time.  Draper has all the tools you look for and he is just getting better and better.

John Lowdermilk has distanced himself from Nico Law in the race for SS and he looks pretty good.  Lowdermilk looks bigger than his listed weight of 207 and is a sure tackler, something missing at this position last season.  Tanner Miller is the guy at FS and he should benefit from a much better secondary around him, Anthony Gair is a good athlete but he isn’t ready for the job.  The player that stood out at safety to me was Ruben Lile, they brought him in and lined him up covering TE’s.  Lile has the size and athletic ability to actually cover TE’s and possibly slot receivers if necessary, that’s a nice player to have.

Specialists

Kicker Mike Meyer could be in for a big year if the offense can move the ball.  Punter Connor Kornbrath didn’t shank any punts that I recall so that’s good.  He wasn’t always great but he didn’t look bad either, he also looks like a TE, he’s listed at 6’6 240 pounds and I think that may be an underestimate.  Little warning to opponents trying to block punts, rough the punter at your own risk.

Kevonte Martin-Manley, Jordan Canzeri and Riley McCarron all fielded punts and only Canzeri muffed one so I guess the competition is down to two (I’m just assuming Ferentz is going with the last guy to drop a punt wins).  Jordan Cotton is likely to be one kickoff returner and I would hope they give Damond Powell a shot just to get him on the field more but Sean Draper is a possibility too and he could be dangerous.

 

The 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes

Defense

Defensive Line

The Iowa Hawkeye’s offense will only improve as much as their QB play improves over last year.  On the defensive side the problems on last year’s team can be traced back to the defensive line for the most part.  In 2012 the defense had a total of 13 sacks on the year, that’s exactly the same number Jadeveon Clowney had at South Carolina by himself and a sack and half less then Jarvis Jones had at Georgia.  Calling last season’s pass rush ineffective doesn’t even begin to describe it and Iowa has always been a team that relies on its defensive line to bring pressure.  Even more good news, last year’s sack leader (with 5) Joe Gaglione has graduated.  Not all of the pressure falls on the defensive ends and in the past the Hawkeyes have generated a pass rush from the defensive tackle position (Mitch King or Karl Klug anyone) and that may be the way it has to come this season too.

Defensive End:

Starters:

Dominic Alvis:  The senior is coming off an unremarkable year that saw him coming back from an injury.  Alvis looked like he might be a player before his ACL tear and while he was fully recovered last season the Hawkeyes have to hope that another year removed from his injury allows Alvis to return to pre-injury form.  Alvis has enough size and the type of athleticism you look for in a DE but he just wasn’t effective rushing the passer last year.  He won’t hurt you at DE as he plays the run well and makes the offensive line account for him but he hasn’t shown great pass rushing skills.  Perhaps better production from the rest of the line will relieve the pressure on Alvis and he will shine this season.

Drew Ott:  He was supposed to redshirt last season as a true freshman but injuries and ineffectiveness necessitated the pulling of his redshirt about half way through the season.  Ott was pretty undersized last season and that made him a nonfactor in the pass rushing game.  He has added size over the offseason and that should help but he is still just a true sophomore so he hasn’t physically matured completely and he’s still growing into his body.  Ott shows a lot of promise but he’s going to need some time and that is why he may be the starter but he will share playing time with others.

Back-ups:

Mike Hardy:  The junior has bounced between DE and DT a bit and seems to have now found a home at end.  I’m not sure if that is because that is where he is best suited or if it’s just where he is needed.  The depth and talent at DT is better than at DE so Hardy has a better chance to contribute here.  As of now he is listed behind Ott and it looks like he will have to fight off redshirt freshman Faith Ekakitie for playing time.

Faith Ekakitie:  The redshirt freshman brings size and skill to the end position after it looked like he might be ticketed for the tackle position last year.  Ekakitie was a well-regarded recruit coming in and he already has the size to compete at the college level.  We may actually see him on running downs replacing the smaller Ott because he brings more heft and will be harder to move.

Riley McMinn:  McMinn is a 6-7 sophomore that is just growing into his body and the coaches have to be hoping that his maturation leads a player that can get to the QB.  His height should lend itself to being a disruptive force in the passing lanes if nothing else.

Daumantas Venckus-Cucchiara:  That will be the last time I type out DVC’s name.  The redshirt freshman has earned a spot in the two-deeps and we shall see if he can actually earn playing time or not.  There will undoubtedly be a rotation of players at DE and match-ups and game situation will dictate a lot of playing time so it will be interesting to see where DVC is used if he does earn playing time.

Young guys to keep an eye on:

Nate Meier:  The former eight-man football star moved all over the practice field last year playing RB/FB/LB and actually seeing game reps on special teams.  He finally seems to have settled in at DE and the hope is that he can translate his athleticism into pass rushing ability and be a situational pass rusher this year.

Melvin Spears:  His name seems to pop up on the depth chart every once in a while but the sophomore can’t seem to crack the lineup.  He will get this year to take a shot at playing time since the Hawkeyes didn’t bring in a single DE recruit in this freshmen class but if he can’t break into this lineup his prospects dim in the future.

Defensive Tackle

Starters:

Carl Davis:  Davis is not like other DTs that Iowa has had in the past.  You have to go back to Colin Cole to find someone with the pure size that Davis brings to the position.  At 6-5 315 pounds he is a mountain of a man but up until this point that hasn’t translated on the field. However, if the spring open practice is any indication the light has come on for this kid.  Davis was dominating during the spring and he was bringing it as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher.  The lives of the DEs will be much easier if Davis can play the season the way he was playing in the spring.  A big man with good feet and strong hands can be devastating to an opponent and Davis is starting to realize his potential.

Louis Trinca-Pasat: If there was one bright spot on the defensive line last season it was the emergence of Trinca-Pasat.  Louis played well and most people didn’t notice because the d-line was so bad overall.  He had surgery in the offseason so he may end up not starting because there is some pretty good talent behind him but he will be part of the rotation and I think the coaches will reward him for his play last season.  He is just as good as the other guys and he showed a lot of heart last year.

The rest of the rotation:  It is tough to call Darian Cooper and Jaleel Johnson back-ups because they might start and they for sure will see plenty of playing time.

Darian Cooper:  Cooper played fairly well last year too but he wasn’t as consistent as Trinca-Pasat and he’s still a little light for a DT.  Cooper has the makings of a very disruptive interior player because he uses his quickness to gain an advantage against the offensive line.  He isn’t big but Iowa has a history of getting great play out of undersized DT (King and Klug, remember).

Jaleel Johnson:  Like I said it has been a long time since the Hawkeyes had a DT the size of Carl Davis so with that in mind the coaches recruited Jaleel Johnson last year.  At 6-4 310 pounds Johnson is backing up Carl Davis and they aren’t going to lose much when Davis comes off the field.  As big as Johnson is the scary part is he actually looks bigger if that’s possible.  The best part about having two guys this size is that they can keep each other fresh and make it a long day for opposing offensive linemen.  I don’t know if Johnson will be the pass rusher that Davis seems to be but it won’t matter because on running downs the Hawkeyes may simply play both these guys and dare teams to try to run up the middle.

Young guys you’ll have to wait to see:  Nathan Bazata and Brant Gressel

The two defensive line recruits the Hawkeyes have this year are both in the 280 pound range and project to the DT position.  Considering none of the four guys I just mentioned are seniors you will have to wait a few years before these two get much of a chance.

Linebacker

Senior middle linebacker James Morris has been starting since midway through his freshman season and he is flanked on both sides by fellow seniors and uber-athletes Christian Kirksey and Anthony Hitchens.  The linebackers are the strength and the backbone of this defense and they will greatly appreciate better play in front of them.  These three racked up big tackle numbers last season especially Hitchens and while that’s usually a good thing it was as much a product of the line letting everything get to the linebackers as it was the play of these guys.

Starters:

James Morris:  Morris came to Iowa after a stellar high school career just up the road from Iowa City and the expectations were very high.  He took over the starting MLB spot midway through his freshman year and with a few notable exceptions has played there his entire career.  Morris takes quite a bit of criticism when his play isn’t great and while he has had some rough moments he is the quarterback of this defense.  It’s a cliché to say that the MLB is the heart and soul of a defense but Morris is the unquestioned leader of this D and he makes sure everyone is lined up where they should be.  Morris gets noticed for the plays that he misses but he rarely gets as much credit for the plays he makes.

Anthony Hitchens:  The breakout star of Iowa’s 2012 defense was Hitchens.  He led the Big Ten in tackles and showed everyone his skill and athleticism.  The Hawkeye defense didn’t exactly have a long list of stars last season so it wasn’t as hard for Hitchens to stand out but his play speaks for itself.  Hitchens is a great athlete that finally found a home at LB last season, early in his career he practiced at both running back and safety.

Christian Kirksey:  Kirksey had a breakout season two years ago as a sophomore and then was outshined a bit last season by the emergence of Hitchens.  Kirksey may actually be more athletic than Hitchens but his position doesn’t lend itself to racking up the tackle numbers the way Hitchens’ does.  He has always been a bit undersized but he has finally matured into a linebacker’s body and he still has explosive speed.

Next man in:

Quinton Alston:  No disrespect to the other “back-ups” but Alston is at a different level than the others.  He is a MLB and doesn’t really have the skill set to play outside but it is actually Morris’ versatility and knowledge of the defense that makes Alston the “next man in”.  Ferentz has never said this but the truth is that if Morris gets hurt Alston replaces him in the middle and the defense doesn’t miss a beat.  If Hitchens or Kirksey were to go down the likely scenario would be to move Morris over to fill in their position and bring Alston in to play the middle.  Morris playing out of position next to Alston in the middle is better than Morris staying in the middle and playing one of the other back-ups.

Back-ups:

Travis Perry:  Perry is a walk-on that has worked his way up to the two-deeps and is the back-up to Christian Kirksey.  He has worked hard and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Ferentz give him a scholarship at some point but it doesn’t say much for the older linebackers on the roster that Perry is ahead of them.  Perry can play but it will take a couple of injuries for him to see a lot of playing time beyond special teams this year.  He will get a shot at the job next year but there are some young linebackers on the roster that might pass him up.

Marcus Collins and Cole Fisher:  Collins is a fourth year junior and Fisher is a third year sophomore and both are listed as the back-up to Anthony Hitchens.  Both players are still a bit undersized and their contributions on special teams will far outweigh there contributions at linebacker this year.  They can both play if need be but if injuries hit the linebacker corps hard it could be trouble.

The Young Guns: Laron Taylor, Reggie Spearman, John Kenny and Josey Jewell

Taylor is a redshirt freshman while Spearman, Kenny and Jewell are all true freshmen and they all need some time to add size but they are only going to get a year.  Next season Quinton Alston will be a senior and he will be locked into the MLB spot but the coaches recruited these four and are recruiting even more linebackers this year with the expectation that they will compete for the other two spots.  Perry may play himself into a starting spot next season but he is going to have to fend off these four challengers and possibly more.

Defensive Backs

The position is long on talent and light on experience.  BJ Lowery moves into the top CB spot previously held by Micah Hyde and he has the talent to excel.  Jordan Lomax is penciled in as the starter opposite Lowery and he is returning after missing last year with an injury.  Senior Tanner Miller returns at free safety after a less than stellar junior year.  The real competition seems to be at strong
safety where John Lowdermilk is looking to bump fan favorite Nico Law to the bench.  The most important addition to the secondary is the return of defensive coordinator Phil Parker as the position coach.  Parker has coached some of the best defensive backs at Iowa and he has a knack for bringing out the best in his players.  If Tanner Miller has a bounce back season at free safety I think much of the credit goes to Parker.

Cornerback

Starters:

BJ Lowery:  Lowery started last season and is the most experienced CB on the roster.  He has the talent and confidence necessary to be the top CB.  At 5-11 193 pounds Lowery has good size and he has a short memory which is essential for a CB.  Lowery could really stand out if the Hawkeye defensive line can bring some pressure.  He will draw the toughest assignments and he will get beat from time to time because he gambles to make a big play but he will make that play enough times to make it worthwhile.  Lowery is the defensive back the Hawkeyes will be counting on to create turnovers in the passing game and watch out because he could make some plays after picking off a pass.

Jordan Lomax:  A lot like Barkley Hill at running back last season Lomax was turning heads and making a name for himself in practice until an injury ended his season before it began.  Lomax is a good athlete with great instincts at CB.  He has good size too but he will have to hold off the challenge of Sean Draper.  Lomax looks like he will be the starter but if he falters at all he may end up the nickel back.

Back-ups:

Sean Draper:  The sophomore saw quite a bit of action last year as a true freshman due to the injuries and the ineffectiveness of some older players.  Draper has all the physical skills and the temperament to be a great CB and it should be interesting to watch him develop under the tutelage of Phil Parker.  He’s going to give Lomax a challenge for the starting spot but even if he doesn’t win that job he will see plenty of action given the three-receiver sets the Hawkeyes will continually face.

Maurice “Reese” Fleming:  The redshirt freshman is known as Reese and he’s also known as a heck of an athlete.  He started out last season as a WR and then was moved to CB for whatever reason.  Fleming was seen as a possible playmaker on offense until the coaches deemed him better suited for defense.  He still wants to get his hands on the ball and even though he wasn’t mentioned by the coaches as a possible punt returner he let it be known that he isn’t out of the running yet.  Fleming looks like the type of athlete that can excel at CB because of his quickness and the fluidity of his movements.  Phil Parker has done far more with far less gifted athletes and while Fleming may have to be patient waiting for playing time he should be an excellent CB down the road.

Gavin Smith:  Smith is a former transfer from Iowa Central Community College entering his senior season who has seen little playing time at CB.  He contributes on special teams and has a good knowledge of the scheme but he has been passed by younger player and will likely only play if absolutely necessary.

The Freshmen Depth:  Desmond King and Malik Rucker:

Two true freshman slated to play CB.  King was a quiet late addition to the recruiting class but he comes in as the all-time leader in interceptions in the state of Michigan.  He made an early move to Iowa City this summer to help himself get ready to contribute this season and while a lot of college CBs are great athletes that teams turn into CBs this kid is a CB through and through.  If there is going to be a surprise playmaker in the Hawkeye secondary my money is on Desmond King.  Rucker is a good athlete that needs time to physically mature but he could play in a pinch and should be a good player in time.

Strong Safety

Starter:

John Lowdermilk or Nico Law:  The surprise of the early two-deeps seemed to be that Lowdermilk had pulled even with fan favorite Nico Law in the race to start at SS.  Lowdermilk is sort of an unknown but he brings good size and the likelihood is that it is his consistency that is winning over the coaches.  Nico Law took over as the starter at SS at around midseason last year and while he is a fan favorite due to his social media prowess he became a bit of a wildcard on the field and that doesn’t endear him to Coach Ferentz.  Law tends to gamble a bit and he looks for the big hit when he should concentrate on making the tackle and while he may want to be the “next Bob Sanders” Sanders wasn’t known for missing tackles or being out of position.  Law has all the ability needed to be a top SS but if Lowdermilk proves he’s the more reliable player there is little doubt who the coaches will go with.  Lowdermilk is no slouch and he played well on special teams last year so the coaches know what they are getting from him and that goes a long way.

Back-up:

Ruben Lile:  The redshirt freshman looked good early last year before tearing his ACL and missing the season, no my writing is not echoing there just seems to be a theme here.  Lile is a 6-3 210 pound safety with superior athleticism and if he hadn’t blown out his knee last year there is a real chance that there isn’t even a debate at the SS position because he may have staked his claim to it last year.  This kid has everything you want in a safety and if he is completely recovered and ready to go he may make this a three-way race.  If he can’t crack the Lowdermilk/Law combo perhaps he tries the Kirksey/Hitchens method and transitions to OLB for 2014 season, there is playing time to be had and he isn’t much smaller than they were when they moved to LB.

Free Safety

Starter:

Tanner Miller:  The fan bases’ favorite whipping boy last season gave the Hawkeye faithful plenty to complain about.  Miller certainly did not have a good season last year and I doubt even he would deny it.  What most fans fail to realize is that Miller was the last line of defense on a team that had virtually no first line of defense.  Miller made plenty of mistakes that exacerbated the problems of the Hawkeye defense but he spent far too much time trying to make up for the mistakes of others and not enough time trying to just do his job.  There is no one on the Hawkeye roster that will benefit more from a coaching change than Tanner Miller. The impact the return of Phil Parker to defensive backs coach will have cannot be overstated.  Parker has made a career out of making guys like Derek Pagel and Sean Considine into fantastic safeties.  Miller is in that same mold and may even be a better athlete than some of the guys Parker has worked with.  He played pretty well as a sophomore and then regressed a lot last season under Derrell Wilson.  Miller will also be better if the defensive line plays better and if he has a more consistent SS in front of him (John Lowdermilk perhaps?).

Back-up:

Anthony Gair:  The redshirt freshman out of Texas has the size and athletic ability you want in a safety but not much is known about him.  His natural talent will carry him for now and he will get a shot to push Miller but Miller is a senior with a lot of playing time under his belt and he knows that defense far better than Gair.  It will take a catastrophic fall by Miller to lose his starting job.

The young guys: 

Greg Mabin and Soloman Warfield:  Mabin is a redshirt freshman but he played WR last year and just moved over to the defense in spring practice so he is still finding his way.  Warfield could be a wildcard as a true freshman.  He may have the versatility to play multiple positions in the defensive backfield so it will take some time to sort out exactly where he best fits.

Punter:

Connor Kornbrath:  Kornbrath struggled last season as a true freshman but considering he is the only punter on the roster it’s his job.  The truth is I remember Ryan Donahue struggling as a freshman too and he turned out pretty well; Kornbrath will be fine it will just take some time.

Special Teams

Punt return:  Kevonte Martin-Manley, Jordan Canzeri, Riley McCarron and Maurice Fleming apparently all have a shot at returning punts.  Ferentz has a tendency to go with ball security over playmaking at this position so Fleming may be on the outside looking in.  The other three seem to be solid with their hands so this may take some time to work out.

Kickoff return:  Jordan Cotton excelled at this last season and it is where he began to make his mark and coach Chris White was heard saying that JUCO transfer Damond Powell is getting a look at kickoff return too.  I’ve seen Powell’s JUCO film and the idea of a guy with that speed lining up with Cotton on kickoff return sounds like heaven to me.

Long-snapper:  Casey Kreiter is a very good long-snapper for the Hawkeyes and the way you can tell is that you have never heard his name.  The goal of every long-snapper is stay anonymous…it means you never screw up.

Final Analysis

Iowa’s defense will be as good as their defensive line allows them to be.  Last year’s line was pretty horrific and the defense followed suit.  The linebackers need the line to keep them clean of blockers so they can make plays and the secondary needs the line to get some pressure so QBs don’t have all day to find their receivers.  These are pretty basic defensive principles but watch last year’s team and you see why the fundamentals of football always remain the same.  There are a lot of different ways teams go about achieving these basics but Iowa has always relied on the four down linemen to get pressure.  Iowa has never been fancy, or as Kirk Ferentz would put it sexy, but they are usually good at the fundamentals and that is where the Hawkeyes failed last season on defense.  Fans (and I include myself in this group) wish that Ferentz would try something new and innovative, especially when things are going badly but Ferentz believes if the Hawkeyes clean up their mistakes the rest will take care of itself.  We did see a bit of a philosophical change last year as the defense did use the nickel and dime defenses more against multiple receiver sets instead of expecting a LB to cover a WR all the time.  My sincere hope is that the addition of Jim Reid will lead to Iowa committing more to matching up against their opponents personnel.  Ferentz is unlikely to ever embrace a heavy blitz scheme as it goes against his nature but if the defensive line can’t get pressure using the linebackers, especially Christian Kirksey, should be considered.  Having three good corners like Lowery, Lomax and Draper should mean using the nickel against spread teams won’t be a problem.

I’m planning on attending the Hawkeyes open fall practice next Saturday and I’ll give an update on what I see and maybe I’ll have a better idea of how I see the season unfolding.  At this point until a QB is chosen and I can see how the WR’s and DE’s are playing this team is still a bit of a mystery.

 

 

The 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes

Coaching Staff

The past two years have brought about major turnover on the Hawkeye’s staff.  Last year Greg Davis replaced Ken O’Keefe as offensive coordinator, Brian Ferentz took over the offensive line, Phil Parker was elevated to defensive coordinator and Levar Woods took over the linebackers.  Brian Ferentz’s addition moved Reese Morgan over to coach the defensive line and Woods addition moved Derrell Wilson to the secondary.  This year Kirk Ferentz has made some more moves and I think they will pay dividends.  Former wide receiver’s coach Eric Campbell didn’t mesh well with Greg Davis’ vision and he has been replaced by Bobby Kennedy, a coach far more familiar to Davis from their time together at Texas.  I got to see Kennedy coaching first hand at the spring game back in April and even though I was sitting about 30 rows behind the team I could hear Kennedy just fine.  He brings some fire and attitude to the field and I think that’s a good thing considering the wide receivers left a lot to be desired last year.  Also on the offensive side of the ball Lester Erb has moved on and Chris White was brought in from the Minnesota Vikings staff to coach running backs and special teams.  The Hawkeye’s special teams haven’t exactly been dynamic the past few years so a new voice and a new perspective is a welcome addition.  As for the running back position I don’t think Erb was the problem and I don’t think he had anything to do with “the curse” at the position but I don’t think change will hurt here either.  White is also proving to be a very good recruiter right out of the gate.  The third full-time addition to the staff is Jim Reid who brings 30 years of coaching experience to the defensive side and while he isn’t replacing Phil Parker as defensive coordinator his addition is likely what is allowing Parker to also coach the secondary.  Parker proved for years that he is an exceptional defensive backs coach and his return to that particular part of the defense should make a noticeable difference.  DJ Hernandez came in as a graduate assistant from Miami and he will be coaching the tight end position.  If the name Hernandez and the words tight end make you think of a certain prisoner in New England you’re right, DJ Hernandez is the older brother of the most famous murder suspect in America today.  DJ is by all accounts nothing like his brother and is a well-respected young coach in the business.

After having little to no turnover in his first 13 years at Iowa Kirk Ferentz has turned over virtually the entire staff in the past two years.  Phil Parker and Eric Johnson are the only two coaches left from Ferentz’s first staff and their responsibilities have changed over the years.  Reese Morgan has been at Iowa 14 years and spent many of those coaching the offensive line before moving over to the defensive line last year.  Levar Woods joined the program after his NFL career ended six years ago but he was in an administrative role until last year.  Everyone else on staff is a new addition with in the last two seasons.  The man at the top is still calling the shots but hopefully the new blood will bring fresh ideas and help Coach Ferentz right the ship after a few disappointing seasons and last year’s disaster.

Offense

Quarterback

The Hawkeyes head into fall camp with a three way competition for the starting QB job.  Kirk Ferentz heads in hoping that someone will distinguish themselves enough that he doesn’t have to go in search of a three sided coin.  Spring practice led to a certain pecking order of Jake Rudock, Cody Sokol and CJ Beathard but it certainly didn’t settle anything and none of the three has ever taken a snap in an FBS game.

The Contenders:

Jake Rudock: The third year sophomore has the most practice time as a Hawkeye but that doesn’t exactly mean much considering he has exactly the same amount of time in Greg Davis’ offense as his competition.  The scouting report on Rudock would be something along the lines of accurate on short routes but doesn’t have a big arm.  Given that most of the criticism of Davis’ pass offense last year was that everything was a short route and the team rarely went deep it would seem to work fine for Rudock.  However, Davis seems to like QB’s with mobility and while Rudock isn’t a statue he doesn’t move as well as Sokol.

Cody Sokol:  The JUCO transfer who redshirted last season is the only QB on the roster to take snaps in any kind of college game but that was two years ago in junior college.  Sokol is the more mobile QB in this competition and that is certainly helpful in Davis’ offense but he is known for something else also.  Sokol is a little bit of a “gunslinger” type of QB who thinks he can make every throw and he gambles a bit, this will not endear him to Coach Ferentz.  Ferentz has proven through the years that he prefers QB’s that take care of the ball and he hates turnovers.  If Sokol can prove that he can make good decisions, take care of the ball and still be the playmaker then he may win over Ferentz.

CJ Beathard:  This redshirt freshman is definitely the pure pocket passer of the group and while that may mean he doesn’t fit Davis’ vision his talent may prove to be too much.  What I’ve seen of Beathard coupled with what I’ve heard about him tells me that he may be the best overall passer of the group and he has the arm and the talent to be very good.  If he shows that he knows the offense, can make all of the reads and can make all of the throws he could come out on top of this competition.  Given that Rudock and Sokol don’t have a playing time advantage over Beathard he may offer the most upside and I don’t think he’s going to just go away.  He may be running third at the moment but he isn’t that far behind the competition.

The Future:  Nic Shimonek

The true freshman has loads of talent and he is the first hand-picked Davis QB recruit so he obviously fits the mold.  The problem for Shimonek is that he is listed at 6-4 196 pounds which means he needs some time to grow before he takes on the Big Ten.  He did show some confidence over the summer when he said through social media that the QB’s on campus better watch out, I think it was meant as a little bit of a joke but if I were the three guys ahead of him I wouldn’t count him out.

How I see it playing out: 

I don’t think Iowa will play just one QB like they mistakenly did last year.  I do think Rudock will come out of camp as the starter but only because I think Ferentz trusts him the most.  This team is going to be built on the offensive line, the running game and the defense.  Even with all of the changes to the coaching staff this is still Kirk Ferentz’s team and that formula has worked for him before.  The difference between this year and last year will be can the passing game make enough plays to help this team and I think Rudock will.  I think Sokol will play and they will have a package of plays for him to run but this team will rely on a stable of running backs, a deep pool of tight ends and hopefully some big plays out of the wide receivers.

Worst case scenario:

The three guys competing are all terrible and Ferentz refuses to go to the true freshman so Iowa wastes a good offensive line and running game and goes 4-8 again (or worse).

The “I must be dreaming” scenario:

CJ Beathard wins the QB competition out of fall camp and becomes the second straight redshirt freshman to the win the Heisman.  He goes on to not be a complete moron like Johnny Football.  (The only downside to this is that Gary Barta would probably give Ferentz a contract extension until 2050 with a $100 million buyout)

Offensive Line

If there is one thing you can count on from a Kirk Ferentz coached team is that the offensive line will be good.  Iowa has become an offensive lineman producing machine.  Two spots are on lockdown barring injury; a healthy Brandon Scherff at left tackle and senior Brett Van Sloten at right tackle.  New center Austin Blythe would have to fall on his face in camp to lose the center job as they have been grooming him for the position since he came to campus but that doesn’t mean there isn’t competition.  The two guard spots are still up for grabs with a number of players vying for playing time.

Two-deeps by position

Left Tackle: 

Starter: Brandon Scherff

Next in a line of left tackles at Iowa that will be heading to the NFL.  He is only a junior eligibility wise so he could stay another year and that may be wise given the likely depth at the position in next year’s draft but whether it’s the 2014 or 2015 draft, as long as he stays healthy, Scherff will be playing on Sundays.

Back-up: Andrew Donnal

Donnal is also a junior and if Scherff leaves early for the NFL he will get his shot to be one of the starting tackles in 2014.  This year he is also competing to start at guard as the competition there is wide open and he got some experience there last year before getting hurt.  Ferentz has always said the best five will play and Iowa has a history of playing future tackles inside at guard to get them experience.

Left Guard:

Starter: Conor Boffeli

Boffeli is a senior that has been a back-up all over the interior of the line throughout his career.  So far he is fighting off the challenge of Donnal and Eric Simmons and while he doesn’t have a lot of game experience he has four years of practice under his belt.  It won’t be a surprise if Boffeli is the starter against Northern Illinois but it will not be a surprise if Donnal beats him out either.

Back-up: Eric Simmons

Simmons is a former JUCO transfer from Iowa Western Community College and he redshirted last year.  He has the versatility to play guard on either side or center if necessary so he’s a nice luxury to have around.  I doubt he gets to start this year given the competition in front of him but he should see playing time.

Center:

Starter:  Austin Blythe

Blythe is a third year sophomore and during his redshirt freshman year the coaches had him practice at center and guard.  Last year Blythe started at guard and got an up close education from veteran center James Ferentz.  This year the job is his to lose and I don’t expect him to lose it.  Blythe brings size (the one thing James Ferentz lacked) and hopefully technique that he learned from all of the Ferentzs (Brian is his position coach).

Back-up: Eric Simmons

Simmons is listed as the back-up at two spots which should tell you about his versatility and he certainly could step in if Blythe stumbles.  Boffeli has also practiced at center before and provides a nice security blanket if injuries take a toll.

Right Guard:

Starter: Jordan Walsh

Walsh is the other celebrated offensive line recruit from the 2011 class (Austin Blythe being the first).  So far Walsh has taken ahold of the right guard position but the truth is that the two best players between Walsh, Simmons, Boffeli and Donnal are going to start at the two guard spots.  There is no denying Walsh’s talent level he just needs to bring the consistency and he can be very good.

Back-up: Mitch Keppy

It is a testament to the young redshirt freshman that he is listed in the two deeps given that there are some very talented and experienced players ahead of him.  Keppy is unlikely to see much playing time given that there are four other guys that can play his spot but obviously the coaches see something in him and he has a bright future.

Right Tackle:

Starter: Brett Van Sloten

Van Sloten is a bit of the unsung beast of the offensive line.  The senior doesn’t get the notice that Scherff does but he was plenty good last year.  He will get the attention of NFL scouts for sure because he is big, powerful and well trained.  Van Sloten doesn’t wow you but he plays right tackle very well and the team will do just fine running behind him.

Back-up: Ryan Ward

The redshirt freshman will only be kept off of the field because there are two extremely talented tackles ahead of him.  Andrew Donnal is listed as the back-up at left tackle but if something happens to Scherff I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ward get a crack at left tackle.  Ward is being groomed and next year he will be the starting right tackle unless Scherff goes pro and then Ward will likely compete with Donnal, the winner becomes the left tackle and loser becomes the right tackle.  Ward may not like sitting on the bench but he just has to wait his turn.

Running Back

The position that has been cursed for far too long may finally have the depth it needs to overcome injuries and departures.  The Hawkeyes stumbled into likely starter Mark Weisman last year when injuries and illness took out all the running backs and they were forced to use their fullback in the running game.  Weisman enters camp as the likely starter but he will share carries with at least two other backs that bring different skill sets to the position.  There are five legitimate players that could play running back and that does not include three true freshmen.

Mark Weisman:  The former transfer walk-on from the Air Force Academy was an emergency fill-in last season and his bull in a china shop style was the best part of the offense once he took over.  There is no secret to what Weisman does, he is a straight ahead, hit the hole and go runner.  He goes north/south and runs over anything in his way. Weisman has enough speed to make teams pay if they don’t get to him early but his power is his best asset and defensive backs do not want to take him on if he gets into the secondary.  This season Iowa has the backs to be a thunder and lightning type of backfield and Weisman is the thunder.

Damon Bullock:  Last year’s opening day starter had a great game against Northern Illinois in Chicago and was playing pretty well until he got injured.  Weisman has played well enough to take over the starting job but Bullock’s versatility is also a factor.  It may sound strange but Bullock may be too good of an offensive weapon to simply use him as a running back.  During his freshman season Bullock played receiver and he could excel as a slot receiver in this offense.  Given the play of Iowa’s receiving corps using Bullock’s skills seems like a good idea.  Bullock is a playmaker and his skills can be used to create match-up problems for defenses.  He is Iowa’s multipurpose offensive playmaker so he is only listed as a running back because multipurpose offensive weapon is not an official position on the roster.

Jordan Canzeri:  Speaking of offensive weapons Canzeri is the lightning to Weisman’s thunder in the backfield.  Canzeri is coming off a redshirt season that he took to recover from an ACL tear.  By all accounts Canzeri made a miraculous recovery and could have played last season by about midyear.  The team was not doing well and the coaches decided that burning a year of eligibility on half of a season was not worth it so Canzeri continued to sit and was able to get bigger and stronger for this season.  He came to Iowa as a pretty small back and has added a lot of good weight over the past few years.  He started in the bowl game two years ago as a freshman when Marcus Coker was suspended and he played pretty well for a kid who was about 170 pounds soaking wet.  He’s up into the 190 pound range now and he looked very good in spring practice.  He’s the smaller shiftier back and should be a nice complement to Weisman’s power game.

Barkley Hill:  A year ago at the beginning of camp it was the true freshman Hill that was making people stand up and take notice not the now departed 4-star recruit Greg Garmon.  Then the curse struck and Hill was lost to an ACL tear during last year’s open fall practice.  Hill is recovered now and while the plan may not include him seeing many carries right now he better be ready because this wouldn’t be the first time Iowa needed to go four deep at running back.

Michael Malloy:  Last year Damon Bullock had a concussion, Jordan Canzeri was rehabbing a torn ACL and Greg Garmon got hurt during the UNI game.  Up to that point then walk-on Malloy was next on the depth chart but he wasn’t dressed for the UNI game due to illness.  With those four backs unavailable the Hawkeyes turned to Mark Weisman who proceeded to run over the Panthers.  Malloy is now on scholarship but it’s going to take a lot of injuries for him to see significant time in the backfield.

The Freshmen: LeShun Daniels, Jonathan Parker and Akrum Wadley

Since it isn’t unheard of for the Hawkeyes to need more than five tailbacks in a season, I’m not kidding and I wish I was, there are three true freshmen on the roster to add even more depth.  LeShun Daniels is the new power back and 6 feet 215 pounds he is the most physically ready of the three.  Jonathan Parker and Akrum Wadley are smaller quicker backs in the 170 pound range.  These two are not the pound it between the tackles type of running backs at this stage and hopefully if they play this year it will be on special teams.

Fullback

There are only two fullbacks listed on the roster, starter Adam Cox and back-up Macon Plewa.  Kirk Ferentz has talked about how he plans to play five different tight ends this year and I’m sure in some formations Mark Weisman will line up in the fullback spot with either Canzeri or Bullock behind him.  At this point Cox is a starter in name only and I don’t expect the Hawkeyes to employ a true fullback that much.  Plewa moved over to fullback during spring practice after being a linebacker.

Wide Receiver

Junior Kevonte Martin-Manley and sophomore Tevaun Smith are listed as the starters to begin camp, seniors Jordan Cotton and Don Shumpert are listed as the back-ups along with sophomore Jacob Hillyer.  Calling this group underwhelming would be an understatement which is why the Hawkeyes went out and got a JUCO WR named Damond Powell along with five new freshmen.

Starters: Kevonte Martin-Manley and Tevaun Smith

Martin-Manley is by far the most experienced WR on the team and while he can play on the outside he does his best work in the slot.  Tevaun Smith is a more traditional outside WR at 6-2 and he did get some experience last season as a true freshman so he just needs to build on that playing time.  Smith needs to work over the top of the defense and stretch the field so Martin-Manley and Damon Bullock can work underneath but he will need help.

Back-ups: Jordan Cotton, Don Shumpert and Jacob Hillyer

Jordan Cotton showed flashes last year of becoming a solid WR but he was never able to put it all together.  Hopefully in his senior season he can break out like others senior receivers have in the past (Ramon Ochoa anyone?).  I am less than enthusiastic about seeing Don Shumpert listed in the two-deeps at WR.  After spending four years hearing about and then watching Shumpert play he is still the really fast guy who can’t catch.  If new WR coach Bobby Kennedy can cure Shumpert’s bad hands he will have more than earned his salary but I’m not optimistic.  Jacob Hillyer brings a different look at receiver as he is a bigger body without the speed of the other players, that doesn’t seem to be the direction Davis and Kennedy are going with the position.  Hillyer is going to have to prove that his skill set is valuable enough to use on the outside if he expects to see playing time.

New Blood: Damond Powell, Derrick Willies, Derrick Mitchell, AJ Jones, Andre Harris and Matt VandeBerg

Last season the Hawkeyes brought in four new WR recruits and now only one of them is left on the WR depth chart.  Cameron Wilson has left the team, Reese Fleming moved over to CB last season and Greg Mabin made the move to DB in the spring.  The staff was obviously not enthused by what they have at WR so they spent a big part of the recruiting class restocking the position.  Kirk Ferentz has always been selective when it comes to JUCO transfers and he prefers when they can enroll in January and participate in spring practice.  He made an exception for Damond Powell and not only did Powell not come in at semester he didn’t get to campus until a few days before fall camp because he was finishing his summer classes.  This should tell you something about Powell’s abilities and the team’s need for him.  Powell is the type of playmaker the Hawkeyes don’t have at WR, he is the kind of player that is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  Powell should bring the big play dimension that Jordan Cotton might have but hasn’t shown consistently and that Shumpert’s hands prevent him from bringing.  Of the five true freshmen Willies is probably the most physically ready to play.  I love Mitchell’s athleticism but he doesn’t have a lot experience at WR because he played QB in high school.  Jones, Harris and VandeBerg all need time to adjust and physically mature but the truth is that any one of these players could turn the coaches’ heads and this depth chart is written in pencil.

The “Legend”:  Riley McCarron

McCarron is a 5-9 182 pound redshirt freshman walk-on that was apparently so incredible in spring practice that he is the second coming of Wes Welker or so the internet would have you believe.  McCarron missed the open practice in the spring that I attended so I didn’t get to see him myself.  I would love for this story to play out this way but I am skeptical.  McCarron wouldn’t be the first “internet legend” to not pan out for the Hawkeyes and by all accounts McCarron does his best work in the slot.  The problem is that so does Kevonte Martin-Manley and Jordan Cotton can play there too.  Damon Bullock may see some time in the slot also so playing time there could be hard to find.  I’m not saying McCarron can’t earn playing time there considering there is very little proven talent at the WR position but the expectations need to be realistic for an undersized redshirt freshman.  Hopefully three or four years from now we are talking about Iowa’s own version of Wes Welker but let’s be patient.

Tight End

Kirk Ferentz has said in an interview on ESPN that he plans to play five tight ends this season.  I don’t believe he meant all at the same time but given the talent at WR versus the talent at TE it might not be the worst idea.  CJ Fiedorowicz should be the break out star of the Hawkeye offense if he can get some consistent QB play but that doesn’t mean he’s the only star.  Ray Hamilton, Jake Duzey, Henry Krieger-Coble and George Kittle should all get some playing time this season.

CJ Fiedorowicz:  An absolute athletic freak at 6-7 265 pounds and a match-up nightmare Fiedorowicz hasn’t dominated the way Hawkeye fans have expected.  Last year’s QB play played a big part in Fiedorowicz not living up to the hype and I expect that more consistent QB this year will help him achieve his enormous potential.  Fiedorowicz is far too big to be covered by your average safety and he is too athletic to be covered by a linebacker and the Hawkeyes have to figure out a way to exploit that advantage.

Ray Hamilton:  Hamilton is a pretty good athlete himself and he’s solid at both catching passes and blocking.  He seems to do more blocking than Fiedorowicz or Jake Duzey but that is because he’s good at it and the other two are more dynamic receivers.  He’s going to be a very good TE when he leaves this place.

Jake Duzey:  Duzey is the overgrown WR type of TE.  He’s not a great blocker but he has time to work on that skill.  He can be a very good receiver and if Ferentz wants to try that five TE package Duzey can split out wide and he’ll feel right at home.

Henry Krieger-Coble:  “The Blocking TE”.  We don’t really know if Krieger-Coble can be a good receiver simply because he’s never been asked to be one.  I have a sneaky suspicion that he’ll be fine catching the ball but as long as the first three guys are around he’ll earn his playing time being “the blocking TE” and there’s nothing wrong with that.

George Kittle:  A redshirt freshman that still needs to grow a bit but he can catch the ball and he still has time on his side.  Ferentz may want to use all five TE’s this season but realistically the fifth guy is going to find playing time hard to come by, right now Kittle should concentrate on getting bigger and stronger and finding a way to contribute on special teams.

The Freshmen:  Ike Boettger and Jon Wisnieski

I’m fairly certain a seven TE set wouldn’t be legal so these two are just going to have to wait their turn.  There has been some suggestion that Boettger could be moved to defensive end given the depth at TE but we will see on that.

Kicker: Mike Meyer

Meyer is a senior, he’s pretty good and his back-up is Marshall Koehn.  It’s the kickers what do you want from me.

Final Analysis:

Iowa’s offense and likely the team are going to go only as far as their QB takes them, whoever it is.  Whether it’s Rudock, Sokol, Beathard or Shimonek I expect the Hawkeye’s to be improved over last year’s debacle under center.  That really isn’t setting the bar very high considering Iowa had seven passing touchdowns all last season and just to give you some perspective Geno Smith threw eight touchdowns last year…against Baylor.  Better play out of the WR position will certainly help whoever is playing QB but it is also up to the coaching staff to better utilize the playmakers they know they have like Fiedorowicz and Bullock.  I’m almost always optimistic about the Hawkeyes at this time of year and this year my optimism is based on the assumption that the Hawkeyes passing offense just simply can’t be as bad this year as it was last year.  The offensive line and running game should be good and versatile so if the passing game can just be adequate the Hawkeyes will be much improved.  If I’m wrong we are all in for long 2013 season.

2013 NFL Draft Analysis

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

7. Jonathan Cooper   OG

45. Kevin Minter   LB

69. Tyrann Mathieu   DB

103. Alex Okafor   OLB

116. Earl Watford   OG

140. Stepfan Taylor   RB

174. Ryan Swope   WR

187. Andre Ellington   RB

219. D.C. Jefferson   TE

Immediate Impact: OG Jonathan Cooper, LB Kevin Minter

In the battle of who was the best guard Cooper got the last laugh at the draft getting picked ahead of Chance Warmack and in this case the only losers are the defensive linemen that are going to have to deal with these two for the next decade.  Cooper is an athletic guard with the versatility to play anywhere on the interior of the line the only problem for the Cardinals is that there is only one of him.  Cooper is an immediate starter at guard and a huge upgrade to their line.  Minter will make an immediate impact simply because the Cardinals need him.  Daryl Washington is suspended to start the season and Minter is likely the guy lining up inside next to newly signed Jasper Brinkley.  Minter can play and while the Cardinals will miss Washington’s leadership I don’t think their defense will suffer much.

Best Value: OLB Alex Okafor

There was a time Alex Okafor looked like he could be a late first round/early second round pick and I never agreed with that assessment but in the fourth round at #103 overall that I can get behind.  Okafor played on a Texas defense that just wasn’t as good as the individual players on it.  He’ll be making the transition from DE to OLB but he’s a natural pass rusher that uses his hands well and knows how to get to the QB.  He doesn’t have an elite first step but his pass rushing skill should show up this year as he is used as a situational pass rusher.  If he had gone in the top 50 I would have said that was too high but at #103 he’s very good value.

Sleeper: RB Stepfan Taylor (I wanted to list Watford, Taylor, Swope and Ellington)

I narrowed this down to Taylor because he’s the lesser known RB and I think he’ll surprise.  Taylor isn’t going to “wow” you, he’s not fast, he’s not big, he’s just good.  Ellington was known for speed and big plays in college, Taylor is the grinder.  He gets tough yards and he takes the ball over and over again.  The Cardinals signed Rashard Mendenhall in the offseason and they still have Ryan Williams but Mendenhall is coming off a season lost to injury and Ryan Williams is having a career lost to injury.  Ellington has the name but Taylor has the game and you can count him.

Overall Analysis:

Cooper and Minter are great picks but the Cardinals didn’t stop there.   Tyrann Mathieu is a huge gamble and I’m not sold on the idea of him being a free safety.  I think Mathieu gives them some value as a slot corner and he has dynamic return ability but this team already has Patrick Peterson so that return ability may be used very little.  Okafor was fantastic value in the fourth round and keep an eye on Earl Watford from James Madison.  Watford is a big athletic guard and he may end up teaming with Cooper for years to come on the interior of the offensive line.  Taylor is a solid pick up and could pay dividends given the injury history at RB.  Ryan Swope ran a surprisingly fast 40 time and he could be a nice addition in the slot.  Ellington dealt with a hamstring injury during his senior year and then he ran a slow 40 during workouts that likely dropped his value seeing as his game at Clemson was predicated on speed.  However, if Ellington gets healthy he will play much faster than he ever ran and he’ll be a nice weapon to have.  D. C. Jefferson didn’t do much at Rutgers but given the depth chart at TE for the Cardinals anything is possible.

San Francisco 49ers

18. Eric Reid   FS

40. Cornellius (Tank) Carradine   DE

55. Vance McDonald   TE

88. Corey Lemonier   OLB

128. Quinton Patton   WR

131. Marcus Lattimore   RB

157. Quinton Dial   DT

180. Nick Moody   OLB

237. B.J. Daniels   QB

246. Carter Bykowski   OT

252. Marcus Cooper   CB

Immediate Impact: FS Eric Reid

It’s not surprising that the defending NFC Champions weren’t looking for a bunch of new starters in the draft but they found the one they need.  The loss of Dashon Goldson left a big hole at FS and the 49ers traded up to get the one they wanted Eric Reid from LSU.  Reid has a lot of experience against top competition and he should slide in smoothly at the back end of the 49er defense.

Best Value: RB Marcus Lattimore **********

This pick doesn’t just come with one asterisk it comes with ten.  Lattimore was the best back in this draft before he suffered one of the most gruesome injuries I have ever seen.  He has made a stunning recovery and the fact that he was able to go through some drills for teams before the draft is nothing short of a miracle.  Lattimore is likely to spend this season on injured reserve because he still has some rehab to do and the 49ers shouldn’t need him.  The value here is in the future, Frank Gore can’t play forever and he’s probably coming close to end of his career.  LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are good backs but they aren’t every down grind it out type of players.  Lattimore is a fantastic talent and if he makes a complete recovery and becomes the type of back he’s capable of being it will be the best comeback story and a medical miracle all in one.

Sleepers: OLB Corey Lemonier, WR Quinton Patton

Lemonier was a good pass rusher as a DE at Auburn but his skills and his body translate very well to OLB for the 49ers.  Some scouts see Lemonier as stiff but some said the same thing about Aldon Smith, Lemonier probably won’t have the same impact Smith had as a rookie but when the 49ers go looking for some extra pass rushing help on third down this is where they will find it.  Patton may just be the right guy at the right place at the right time.  Michael Crabtree is going to miss the start of the season, Mario Manningham is coming back from an injury and AJ Jenkins didn’t do anything last year meaning the 49ers need someone to step up opposite Anquan Boldin and my money is on Patton.

Overall Analysis:

This team doesn’t have a lot of room on their roster and that’s not surprising given they won the NFC last year but they drafted a lot of talent and I’m not sure what they are going to do with it all.  Reid is a starter and Lattimore is probably going on IR.  Tank Carradine is a great eventual replacement for Justin Smith and given the fact that Smith is coming off an injury and so is Carradine maybe they can give each other enough time to heal up.  Lemonier and Patton are needed depth at OLB and WR and Vance McDonald should step into to fill the void left by Delanie Walker’s departure.  The rest of these players are going to have to fight to make this roster.  Quinton Dial is an intriguing prospect at DT and Nick Moody could bring depth to the LB corps.  The most interesting project could be BJ Daniels the QB out of South Florida.  The 49ers traded for Colt McCoy from the Browns to be the new back-up to Colin Kaepernick and McCoy’s experience should give him a leg up but Daniels presents a nice option as the third QB.  Current third QB Scott Tolzien’s skill set is not like Kaepernick’s but Daniels which could give him an advantage as a developmental prospect.

Seattle Seahawks

62. Christine Michael   RB

87. Jordan Hill   DT

123. Chris Harper   WR

137. Jesse Williams   DT

138. Tharold Simon   CB

158. Luke Willson   TE

194. Spencer Ware   RB

220. Ryan Seymour   OG

231. Ty Powell   OLB

241. Jared Smith   DT

242. Michael Bowie   OT

Immediate Impact: WR Percy Harvin

This feels like a cop-out but after looking at the list of draftees I don’t see anyone making a huge impact on a team that was as good as the Seahawks were last year.  Harvin gives them the playmaker they desperately need to take pressure off of RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Sidney Rice.  He is also the type of guy that can make Russell Wilson better because Harvin is a short to intermediate route type of player that Wilson can find and dump the ball off to when the play breaks down.  Harvin can make something out of nothing and that will be the most valuable thing for this offense.

Best Value:  DT Jesse Williams

Williams has the talent and especially the strength to be seriously considered as a first round pick and somehow the Seahawks got him in the fifth round.  He’s a space eating NT that can play as a DT in a 4-3 defense and while he won’t make a huge impact on the stat sheet he will definitely improve your run defense.  When you can pick up a talent like this in the fifth round you found the definition of value.

Sleeper: CB Tharold Simon

To say that Simon comes with character concerns is an understatement, he doesn’t have Tyrann Mathieu level concerns but he has concerns.  There are two very good reasons I can see Simon succeeding in Seattle and they are Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.  The Seahawks have found a type of CB they like and that is tall and physical and Simon could be that type of guy.  Nobody knew who Sherman and Browner were until they started dominating and it looks like Pete Carroll is sticking with what works.  This is of course all contingent on Simon staying out of jail.

Overall Analysis:

I don’t see this draft having a huge impact and other than Jesse Williams and Tharold Simon I question some of these picks.  Obviously without a 1^st rounder the impact is questionable but RB Christine Michael is a tantalizing talent that never really put it together and there were better players on the board at the end of the second round.  DT Jordan Hill was a nice player at Penn St. but he is a little undersized and while that may now work since they have Jesse Williams they didn’t know that at the time.  WR Chris Harper is going to have to fight to make the roster as the fifth WR and the last six picks have very little chance of making this roster.  Overall it’s a draft that may bring a little depth but probably not a lot of production.

St. Louis Rams

8. Tavon Austin   WR

30. Alec Ogletree   LB

71. T.J. McDonald   S

92. Stedman Bailey   WR

113. Barrett Jones   OL

149. Brandon McGee   CB

160. Zac Stacy   RB

Immediate Impact: WR Tavon Austin, LB Alec Ogletree

Austin was drafted to be the playmaker of this offense and given his natural ability that shouldn’t be a problem.  Austin’s only drawback is his size and given the rules in today’s passing game his stature shouldn’t be an impediment.  Austin will be dynamic replacing Danny Amendola in the slot but he can also split out wide and make things happen.  Ogletree is another one of those troubled talents that teams hope can put it all together and if Ogletree does he could be one of better LB’s in the NFL.  Ogletree will shift from his college position in the middle to weakside linebacker next to James Laurinaitis.  The hope from the Rams will be that Ogletree takes after Laurinaitis and Chris Long and avoids the off the field problems he’s had in the past.

Best Value: OL Barrett Jones

Jones falling to the fourth round and the 113^th pick is one of the bigger mysteries to me even if there were some health questions with him.  Jones was versatile enough to win the Outland Trophy at LT one year and the Rimington Trophy at center the next and if I were any of the three interior starters on the Rams line I’d be looking over my shoulder.  Jones could steal either guard or the center job and I won’t be the least bit surprised.  At worst Jones is the ultimate back-up because he could legitimately play all 5 line positions if needed.

Sleeper:  WR Stedman Bailey

Bailey caught 114 passes last year and scored 25 TD’s.  That’s not a misprint, 25 TD’s. Tavon Austin wasn’t the only target of Geno Smith at West Virginia last year and while it was a pass happy offense scoring 25 TD’s in a college season is not a fluke.  Bailey isn’t the biggest or the fastest receiver but he knows how to get open and he knows what to do with the ball when he gets it.  The Rams have some fairly non-descript WR’s like Brian Quick, Chris Givens and Austin Pettis on the roster and while those guys might develop this year I wouldn’t count out Bailey making some noise instead.

Overall Analysis:

It is a complete coincidence that the Rams are the last team I did in my draft analysis and they also happen to have my favorite draft overall.  I wasn’t a big Tavon Austin fan and in any other draft I would question him going eighth overall but this draft was so devoid of playmakers at the top that I understand what the Rams were doing. GM Les Snead played this draft beautifully moving up to get Austin and then moving down to recoup some of what they lost and still getting Alec Ogletree.  T. J. McDonald was a sneaky good pick and there is always a surprise rookie safety in the league that starts and plays well and McDonald can win the job in St. Louis and he has the bloodlines to succeed at the position.  I already said my peace about Bailey and Jones but I also like the last two picks.  Brandon McGee will slide in as the fourth CB on the roster and that’s a great get in the fifth round and with the departure of Steven Jackson the RB position could be wide open for Zac Stacy.  It’s unlikely Stacy will win the starting job but Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead are hardly unbeatable guys in front of him.