I’ll start with the Hawkeyes.  This is much more what I was expecting out of the Hawkeyes.  They played pretty well but they shot themselves in the foot from time to time and killed drives.  Weisman is being leaned on a little too much and it’s going to cost them down the line when he breaks down.  No one can average 30 carries a game and last all season.  The defense played well with a few big plays they gave up being the exception.  For once the Hawkeyes took some chances on defense with blitzing, unfortunately it backfired.  Let’s get something straight, they did not get beat because they were playing prevent they got roasted a few times when the blitz didn’t get to the QB.  If you think I can’t blame the coaching staff for the failure of the players not executing just give me a second.  We have blitzed so little in the past that the players aren’t used to it and that’s why they aren’t very good at it.  They should get better in time if the coaching staff keeps working at it, please Coach Ferentz don’t give up on it because of a few big plays, you still won the game.

Just a few of notes

–          BJ Lowery did not blow the coverage on the first big TD they gave up, he blew the tackle.  He was right where he needed to be (maybe slightly out of position) but he had the guy and he missed the tackle, that’s not normal for him.  He is forgiven after making one of the best catches I’ve seen on his interception.  ESPN is not forgiven for not making Lowery’s pick a top play.

–          We have 4 tailbacks the coaches supposedly like but Weisman gets 30 carries?  I understand that Weisman’s style was working against the Cyclones but LeShun Daniels is fairly similar and when you have a 20 point lead it’s okay to give Weisman a break.

–          This team has to find an edge pass rush.  If playing Quinton Alston at DE or bringing Nate Meier in more is how you do it fine but someone has to get pressure off the edge.  Drew Ott played his best game as a Hawkeye but he still wasn’t getting to the QB.  Kudos to Darian Cooper for finally getting a sack for the defensive lineman, it still counts even if it was against the Cyclones third string center.  I’m just glad Cooper realized the mismatch and took advantage.

–          I would like to say the Hawkeyes finally got a win against a quality opponent but the Cyclones are not very good.  I’m glad the Hawkeyes finally didn’t make the Cyclone QB look like a Heisman trophy front runner early in the year, that’s a nice change from recent history.

–          Jake Rudock went on the road to a very hostile environment where the Hawkeyes have struggled and he played a pretty good game.  However, he needs to start keeping the ball on the read option because everyone is selling out on the RB because they don’t believe he’ll keep it.  Keep the ball Jake and make everyone pay.

–          The two deeps were released for the Western Michigan game this week and the one notable change is that WR Tevaun Smith is now listed as a starter and Don Shumpert is listed as his backup.  Yay! And so begins Shumpert’s descent down the depth chart, this is about the time it started last year and by my count he ended up about seventh on the depth chart.  That would be about right.

College football thoughts (mostly Big Ten related)

–          Oh those mighty Cornhuskers of Nebraska, thank you for the most entertaining weekend and beginning of the week I could ask for.  The meltdown of the Nebraska faithful is hilarious after the complete meltdown of their team against UCLA (sorry guys but you lost to a better team, UCLA is pretty good).  And thank you Coach Pelini for throwing gasoline on the fire, getting into a pissing match with Tommy Frazier coupled with the timely release of the two year old audio tape of Pelini  isn’t helping matters.  Obviously someone was sitting on this tape waiting to use it when it would make splash and it has.  Nebraska is “reviewing” Pelini’s job status and my guess is he keeps his job until he loses 3 or 4 Big Ten games and then he’s toast at the end of the year.  The Nebraska faithful has never been completely behind Pelini and while he does win about 9 games a year that isn’t enough given his personality.  You can only come off as a jerk if you win at least 12 games a year and win national championships, you know like Nick Saban does.

–          Obviously as an Iowa fan I don’t particularly like Wisconsin but what I hate more is when a Big Ten team gets screwed by Pac 12 officials against a Pac 12 team in a Pac 12 stadium.  If you didn’t see what happened Wisconsin ran a play and knelt down in the middle of the field to set up a shot at a game winning field goal with 15 seconds to play.  QB Joel Stave knelt down, giving himself up, and set the ball down but apparently Pac 12 officials are unaware of this “knee down means your down” thing in college football and they let an Arizona St. player lay on the ball for about ten seconds.  Then if that weren’t bad enough when the umpire finally set the ball for play with about 4 seconds to go he stood there stopping the Wisconsin center from snapping the ball until time ran out.  This was not poor clock management by Wisconsin, they had plenty of time to run these plays and kick a game winning field goal if the refs had done their job correctly.  Oh don’t worry the refs have been “reprimanded” by the Pac 12, lot of good that does when they just handed Wisconsin a loss.

–          QB controversy at Ohio St.?  Okay probably not but back up QB Kenny Guiton is playing lights out in place of Braxton Miller.  Maybe if we talk about it enough we can start a controversy.  By the way Guiton is a better passer right now than Miller.

–          Mack Brown is living on borrowed time at Texas, Lane Kiffin is a dead man walking at USC and Nebraska’s Bo Pelini should start polishing his resume.  Texas, USC and Nebraska are three big jobs that look like they will be open by the end of the year and we are only 3 weeks in.

NFL Thoughts

–          Rob Gronkowski needs to get back on the field for the Patriots because they can’t keep winning this ugly all year.

–          Two weeks into his second season and the Greg Schiano experiment looks like it’s blowing up in Tampa Bay.  Schiano may win the battle against Josh Freeman but if the Glazer family is smart they will keep Mark Dominick the GM and send Schiano back to college.  Dominick has done a good job stockpiling talent in Tampa.  There are some cushy landing spots (cough…Nebraska…cough) that Schiano might fit into.

–          I didn’t think it was possible but the Jacksonville Jaguars are worse than I thought they would be.  There are at least a dozen Jags fans that want the team to sign Tim Tebow, that might not sound like a lot but it’s about half of their fan base at this point.

–          The Philadelphia Eagles offense is everything it was advertised to be but I seriously underestimated how bad their defense was going to be.  I said their run defense was going to be bad but I didn’t think the pass defense would be just as horrible.  Chip Kelly is an offensive genius too bad this isn’t the Pac 12 where you can beat people by running up the score every week.  The truth is Kelly would kill to have a defense in Philly as good as his defenses at Oregon and that’s a very sad truth.

–          EJ Manuel is way better than I thought he would be this quickly.  He was my favorite QB in the draft class in terms of potential but I didn’t think he would be ready but he’s playing pretty solid football.  Of course it helps if the defense doesn’t cover your best WR when you need to make a play to win the game.

–          Congrats to Andy Reid and Alex Smith in Kansas City they are playing well to start the year and they are two deserving guys.  Reid took a lot of flak in Philly and Smith was a whipping boy in San Francisco but they are good men doing their jobs well and Kansas City finally has guys they can cheer for.

–          Kansas City looks like they might actually be a team and San Diego doesn’t look nearly as bad as I thought they would so far, those are the good surprises.  Tampa Bay looks like a sinking ship and Pittsburgh looks like a mess.  The Steelers could always turn it around, a solid coach and QB are a good starting point, but the Buccaneers are the Titanic and Greg Schiano isn’t the captain he’s the iceberg.

The Hawkeyes finally broke the seven game losing streak by beating the mighty Missouri St. something-or-others.  Bears? Maybe?  Whatever, it counts as a win so let’s just take what we can get.  It is nice to know that the coaching staff must have read my last blog post because they cleaned up some of the coaching errors I pointed out last time (if you believe the coaching staff reads my blog please stop reading and go hit yourself in the head with something hard).

A few changes I noticed; the WR bubble screen was largely absent from the playbook (my prayers were answered), they actually stuck with the RB that was on a roll, we didn’t give up a fake punt for a first down and while LB’s were still covering WR’s at times that isn’t as big of a mismatch against an FCS opponent.  A few notes about the game.

– The one time I actually recall them throwing the WR screen they attempted it to Damond Powell, unfortunately Powell dropped the pass and of course he didn’t see another pass all day long, wish it worked that way for Don Shumpert.

-While I am in favor of letting a RB get into a rhythm with the offense and Mark Weisman certainly did that, giving him 30 carries in a game against a FCS team is a bit of an overcorrection.  Now that the Hawkeyes actually got LeShun Daniels into the game they now have 4 RB’s that should get carries so no one should shoulder the load of 30 carries in a game.  When I said they shouldn’t rotate RB’s I meant within a series not within the game.  Taking a RB out when he’s on a roll within a series can kill a drive, rotating in multiple RB’s that give you different skills keeps the defense off balance and keeps the RB’s fresh.

-Better job on special teams although the first game didn’t set the bar very high.

-Jake Rudock played well overall with a few notable exceptions.  I have to say when Jake makes a bad pass for an interception he makes it a really horrific pass.  These are expected growing pains for a QB that hasn’t played in a live game since high school.  I like Rudock’s skillset and he has far better wheels than I expected.  After the first game one complaint I read over and over was that he never keeps it on the read-option play and he didn’t but he did a better job in the second game and I believe when he gets more comfortable in the offense he will use he’s running skills more.

Here’s my rant.

The Hawkeyes burned the redshirts on two more true freshmen that didn’t see action in the first game.  LeShun Daniels was supposed to play in the first game but Ferentz “never found the opportunity” to put him in so against Missouri St. he used him early and Daniels looks the part.  Daniels is as big and physical as Weisman but he has more speed, he is the one to watch as the season progresses.  The other newcomer in the game was a surprise, WR Matt Vandeberg got in on the action early and made a couple of nice catches on some short gains.  I am both excited and mistified by this development.  I am all in favor of anything that means Shumpert sees less playing time at WR but I can’t figure out how Vandeberg is the newcomer that made the grade.  I don’t mean to disparage Matt Vandeberg in any way, this is kid that has obviously worked hard and proved to the coaches that he is ready to contribute and I love to see that, my issue is with the coaching staff (as it seems to be far too often lately).  For those of you that don’t know who Vandeberg is he is a kid out of South Dakota that the Hawkeyes originally offered a grayshirt scholarship to (Point of clarification: a “grayshirt” offer means the kid delays his college enrollment until the second semester and get put on scholarship then which delays his eligibility clock by one year).  Vandeberg wasn’t supposed to be on the team this semester and only is because the Hawkeyes had some scholarships open up just before camp so the coaches called Vandeberg and told him he could start in the fall instead of in January.  The reason this bothers me is that Vandeberg only joined the team at the beginning of August just like Damond Powell and yet I clearly saw Vandeberg run more than one route in the game.  Why is it a high school kid learned the offense faster than an older JUCO transfer kid?  That’s a rhetorical question.  What I’m saying is Ferentz’s stance that Powell isn’t playing as much because he came in so late is complete BS?  Vandeberg came it at the same time as Powell and apparently he’s up to speed enough to play.  Maybe Ferentz is covering for Powell, maybe Powell is a slow learner and Ferentz doesn’t want to tell people that but something tells me that’s not the case.  I questioned the coaching staff’s ability to assess players last year when they obviously missed that Weisman was a pretty good RB and because they insisted on playing Shumpert, now I question it even more.  People say “trust the coaches they see practice every day”, sorry but you want me to trust the coaches that played James Vandenberg every snap last season?  No thanks, I think I’ll trust my eyes.  I may only get to see an open practice here and there and watch the games they play but my eyes don’t lie.  The coaches obviously initially missed on Vandeberg because they brought in 4 other freshmen WR’s and only brought in Vandeberg because they had a scholarship to fill.  They don’t get credit for lucking into a kid that is obviously working hard and earning time ahead of the other freshmen.  Maybe the coaching staff did read my blog last week and my compliment of Don Shumpert’s blocking convinced them he should still be playing.  Let me be clear, unless you plan on making Don Shumpert a very undersized guard he shouldn’t see the field.  He is incapable of the skill that literally defines he position, receiving.  If the coaches are reading this please play Tevaun Smith, Kevonte Martin-Manley, Damond Powell, Jacob Hillyer, Jordan Cotton, Matt Vandeberg, Riley McCarron, Damon Bullock, Jordan Canzeri, Derrick Willies, Derrick Mitchell, Andre Harris or Blake Haluska at WR before Don Shumpert.  Yes I know two of the those guys are RB’s but if we use them at WR then even in a three receiver set that would make Shumpert 5th team.   I used to be on the side of “trust the coaches” but I’ve seen far too many things overlooked to still feel that way.

Rant over, now go beat the damn Clowns.  Go Hawks.

I watched the game on Big Ten Network and then I watched it again a second time later because I just couldn’t help myself and I came to the same conclusion both times, this loss is on the coaching staff.  Jake Rudock played pretty well considering it was his first action in a college football game (another thing we can blame the coaches for).  Yes his pass that was picked off in the end that led to the game winning field goal for NIU was a bad read and an even worse throw but it should never have been that close in the first place.  Play calling and poor personnel decisions throughout the game turned what should have been a solid win by the Hawkeyes into loss to good opponent.  Apparently the near complete overhaul of the assistant coaching staff over the past two years hasn’t changed Kirk Ferentz as the Hawkeyes continue to make the same mistakes they have in the past.  Here are some general and some specific examples of what I’m talking about.

–          Throwing the bubble screen to your WRs can work if you throw it to your playmaking WRs and Iowa is in short supply of those so using this play over and over again is pointless.  Iowa ran this play to Kevonte Martin-Manley, Riley McCarron, Jordan Cotton and Jacob Hillyer (TWICE).  KMM is a possession receiver with little chance to break this play for a big gain.  Riley McCarron is a small slot receiver who is unlikely to break this for a big gain.  Jacob Hillyer is a big-bodied receiver whose strength is his size not his speed and he is unlikely to break this for big gain and the Hawks through it to him twice.  Sensing a theme here?  Jordan Cotton is the only one of these guys that has the slightest chance to make a play with this and he is hindered by the fact that NIU knew it was coming because Iowa ran it so much.  Two things, first stop telegraphing this play, if I know when it’s coming the opponent knows when it’s coming too.  Second Damond Powell needs to be the guy you throw this to.  Ferentz keeps saying that Powell is still getting up to speed but apparently in the month he has been practicing with the team he has only learned the deep post route, seems like it’s about time you teach him a second play.

–          When you get a lead on a smaller opponent and your RB starts off a drive ripping off a couple of 7-8 yard runs and your offensive line is starting to lean on that smaller opponent don’t get cute with the play calling and don’t take out the RB that is on a roll.  In the third quarter with a seven point lead Iowa finally got the ball and Damon Bullock took over at RB and gained about 15 yards on two plays, he was jumping up, flexing and screaming for the ball, so what did the Hawkeyes do?  Took him out and put in Jordan Canzeri who hadn’t taken a handoff all day.  Momentum killed, drive stalled and I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why.  When you have an opponent down and you have a chance for a long demoralizing drive running the football down their throat you do not let up, you do not get cute, you let your offensive line dominate and you let the RB that is in a rhythm keep going.  I’m all for rotating players in to keep guys fresh but Bullock didn’t need a breather and he was ready to go so let him play.

–          The play (or plays) that everyone is still talking about.  Iowa has a 3^rd and 1 and Rudock goes play action fake and throws a bomb down the middle of the field to Damond Powell but the pass is over Powell’s head and then Iowa punts.  WHAT?  For half a second Kirk Ferentz and Greg Davis morphed into Chip Kelly and went for a big play when no one was expecting it and it was a fantastic call.  Breaking out of the comfort zone, going to the kill shot and throwing it to your big playmaker Damond Powell after he had caught a deep pass over the middle in the first half.  Crowd was excited the team had to love it and then…Iowa punted.  Suddenly this brilliant play call just became the stupidest thing you could possibly do.  The Hawkeye offense needed to stay on the field because the defense had been on the field for most of third quarter and going for the big play on 3^rd and 1 is only a good idea if you have already decided to go for it on 4^th down.   When you don’t go for it you put your tired defense back out on the field and you tell your offense you don’t believe they can get 1 yard against an undersized opponent.  Inexcusable decision by Ferentz, it is one thing to be conservative it is another to be scared.  Oh and you can’t play the “field position” excuse when your punter is as inconsistent as Kornbrath has been.

–          The fake punt for about a forty yard gain is ridiculous.  I’m sure someone blew their assignment and I appreciate that Ferentz won’t throw that player under the bus but it isn’t the first time or the second time that the Hawks have been beaten with a fake punt play and that is on the preparation.  Ferentz has always been conservative with his punt return teams and if you’re not going to go for the block and your returner isn’t likely to return it anyway why isn’t your entire punt return unit ready for the fake?

–          Jordan Cotton is completely to blame for the ridiculous decisions he was making returning kickoffs from five yards deep in the end zone (you get the ball at the 25 yard line if you take a knee) and that isn’t on the coaches.  However, Ferentz said that Cotton has instructions on when to come out and when not to so if his instructions are come out from five yards deep that needs to change (you aren’t pulling off a 30 yard return very often).  If Cotton wasn’t following his instructions (I’m pretty sure Ferentz’s nature would preclude him from saying go for it from 5 yards deep) than take him out.  Jordan Canzeri can return kickoffs, so could Powell or Martin-Manley or a host of other guys.  Cotton was an excellent return man last season but he has to understand and the needs of the offense and if he doesn’t then find someone that does.

–          Linebackers covering wide receivers.  The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.  The Iowa Hawkeye defense is apparently crazy because I’m not sure how many times you have to let a WR beat a LB before you make an adjustment but the Hawkeyes passed that number a long time ago.  You can’t blame the players for repeatedly being put in a position to be beaten and then getting beat, it is a predictable outcome.  The Hawkeyes have three NFL caliber LBs but no one in the NFL is going to ask them to cover WRs.  This might be the most talented group of LBs Iowa has had under Ferentz but it is ludicrous to use them this way.

Those examples are just the ones I can remember a few days after watching the game twice.  My other problem with the coaching staff and Kirk Ferentz in particular stems from his press conference on Tuesday.  Coach Ferentz was asked a question about getting the TE’s more involved in the offense and he said “where the ball goes is dictated by the defense”, that is directly from Ferentz’s mouth.  What?  I cannot begin to explain the problem I have with a coach that has that mentality.  There are times in a game where you take what the defense gives you.  It’s 3^rd down and 4 and the CB is playing 10 yards off the WR, your WR’s read should be run 5 yards just past the 1^st down marker, stop and the QB will hit you right there for the 1^st down.  Move the chains, new set of downs, next play.  To allow an opponent like Northern Illinois to dictate that you don’t use your very talented group of TE’s let alone your 6’7 265 pound matchup nightmare CJ Fiedorowicz means you are failing as a coach.  If a team like NIU can take away what should be a huge part of your offense what chance do you stand against Ohio St. or Wisconsin.  The successful coaches in college football today scheme ways to create mismatches for their playmakers and then they exploit those mismatches.  Football is an evolving sport and I’m not seeing an evolution from the Iowa Hawkeye staff and that starts and stops at Kirk Ferentz.  I will forever be a fan of Kirk Ferentz the man and the University of Iowa will someday recognize the contributions he has made to the school and the football program but it is becoming increasingly hard to be a fan of Kirk Ferentz the coach.  Maddeningly frustrating is the only way I can describe the Hawkeye program at this moment and while I would love to see them turn it around it is hard to believe it’s possible.  The players didn’t play a flawless game against NIU but they played well enough to win (despite the turnovers) if the coaching hadn’t gotten in the way.  Missouri St. is unlikely to put up much of a fight this weekend (and this game better not be close) but it is the next week against in-state rival Iowa St. that Ferentz has to pull off a win.  The Cyclones lost to UNI opening weekend 28-20 and it really wasn’t as close as the score indicated.  The Panthers ran all over the Cyclones and if Iowa can’t beat the Cyclones it is going to be a long year and basketball season won’t be able to get here soon enough.

A couple of good notes since it seems like I’m pretty down on the Hawkeyes.

–          Jake Rudock played pretty well, not great but pretty well.  He wasn’t perfect and unfortunately he threw a game changing pick but the kid is a player.  Wonder what last year’s team would have done with him at QB? (Sorry I couldn’t help myself)

–          Weisman is fine at RB and I know I said Bullock is an offensive weapon but Bullock has added a lot of muscle to his frame and he looks like he could carry the load.  Weisman at fullback, Bullock at RB, should look at that more. (I can’t believe Bullock dropped that one screen pass; that was an aberration he has way better hands than that.)

–          Don Shumpert is an excellent blocker at WR (there I said something nice about him).  Now if he could just catch…sorry (don’t bring up the one he caught late against the prevent defense, I never said he drops everything just the ones that count).

–          Damond Powell can beat anyone deep.   On his long catch in the first half he beat a safety that had deep coverage and he had more than a step on him, the kid can fly.

–          Iowa’s one trick play in the game was a flea flicker that ended with a long completion to Jordan Cotton.  Good call, well executed, maybe the Hawks should try more than one trick play a game, not more than one flea flicker but more than one trick play.

–          Jake Rudock knows what every Iowa Hawkeye fan and every NFL scout knows and that is that CJ Fiedorowicz is never covered in the red zone.  Rudock put the ball up and granted the wish of every Hawkeye fan by letting Fiedorowicz just go up and get it and he did.  Touchdown Iowa.  Perhaps he’s open on other areas of the field too…hmmm.

–          Mike Meyer has been working out.  I don’t think NIU got to return a kickoff as Meyer put almost all them about 5 yards deep and NIU’s kick returner was smart enough to take the ball at the 25.

–          Brandon Scherff is a monster.  There were times when he was pushing his man five yards down the field using one arm.  I think he was trying to give the guy a fighting chance…it didn’t help.

Better luck against Missouri St.  Go Hawks!

2013 NFL Overview     My Predictions

NFC Playoffs

Division Winners

Washington

Green Bay

Atlanta

San Francisco

Wild Card Teams

Seattle

New Orleans

NFC Championship Game

Atlanta over San Francisco

AFC Playoffs

Division Winners

New England

Cincinnati

Houston

Denver

Wild Card Teams

Indianapolis

Baltimore

AFC Championship Game

Houston over Denver

Super Bowl Prediction

Houston over Atlanta

 

 

Individual Player Awards

MVP : (There is about a 98% chance this goes to a QB or a RB)

Contenders: RB Adrian Peterson, QB Peyton Manning, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady

My Dark Horse Candidate:  QB Matt Ryan

Adrian Peterson is the reigning league MVP and after rushing for over 2000 yards last year he was certainly deserving but that is a tough feat to accomplish and even tougher to repeat.  Peterson will almost assuredly rush for over 1800 yards but I think he misses the 2000 yard mark and the Vikings have a disappointing year taking him out of the MVP race.  Drew Brees has his coach back and it’s completely possible he throws for over 5000 yards this year with the offense the Saints have.  Unfortunately we have come to expect this kind of greatness out of Brees and unless his team goes 15-1 or 14-2 his phenomenal numbers get lost in the shuffle.  Tom Brady is certainly as valuable to his team as anyone in the league and he is a guy that makes the players around him better and he will do that this year.  However, I think the Patriots are going to lean a little heavier on Stevan Ridley and Brady’s numbers just aren’t going to be at the same level as Brees, Rodgers and Manning.  I think Matt Ryan is about to break out and join the ranks of the best QB’s in the league.  He has all kinds of weapons on his side and the addition of Steven Jackson is going to be bigger than people realize.  Ryan is calm, cool and collected and he is going to lead his team to the top of the NFC this year.  He doesn’t had the credibility like the Rodgers, Manning, Brady and Brees have just yet so he probably won’t win the award this year but he could.  Aaron Rodgers is a machine and he just keeps churning out 4000 yard seasons and winning games week after week.  He may be a victim of his own success as he has set the bar so high for himself or it could be that Peyton Manning is just going to have that good of a year.

My pick: QB Peyton Manning    Denver Broncos

Manning was fantastic last season coming off sitting out a year and rehabbing an injury.  No one knew if the Peyton of old was still around or not and he proved he is.  This year he is even stronger coming off his neck issues and he has Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and now Wes Welker to throw to.  None of the Denver TE’s played particularly well last year and none have distinguished themselves this pre-season but it doesn’t matter because John Elway went out and added the best slot receiver in the league.  Welker probably isn’t going to catch 120 passes like he would in New England but that is more a byproduct of Thomas and Decker being so good and Manning being able to spread it around.  Manning is going to guide his team through the first six games of the year while they are missing Von Miller and then when he gets back the Broncos are going to be frighteningly good.  The All-World QB of the best team of the regular season is a pretty safe bet to win the MVP.  *If Adrian Peterson rushes for 2500 yards all bets are off.  

Offensive Player of the Year

Contenders: The same 6 guys I just listed for MVP are a pretty good bet to put up ridiculous offensive numbers.  Also throw in; QB Robert Griffin III, QB Michael Vick, WR Calvin Johnson

My Dark Horse Candidate: RB Doug Martin

If any of the QB’s; Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning or Ryan throw for 5000 yards they are going to be right in the conversation but if they don’t cross that threshold they will all be victims of their past success (except for Ryan) and they won’t win this award.  RGIII and Michael Vick both have the potential to put up big passing and rushing numbers if they could stay on the field for 16 games but that seems unlikely.  Calvin Johnson is the only WR in the league that can dominate so much that he puts himself in this conversation and if he gets 2000 yards receiving (he had 1964 last year) he’s got a chance.  The only thing holding him back last year was his 5 whole TD’s, that won’t get it done.  Doug Martin might prove to be the best two-way RB in the league this year and 2500 yards from scrimmage is well within his reach.  Tampa Bay has to have a good year to get Martin on people’s radar but he might put up video game like numbers and get some notice himself.

My Pick: RB Adrian Peterson   Minnesota Vikings

If Peterson is healthy he is a shoe-in for 1800 rushing yards and has a legitimate shot at 2000 but unlike last year he’s team may pull him down in the MVP voting.  Last season the Vikings weren’t expected to be very good and they finished 10-6 and Peterson got a lot of credit for that and won the MVP.  The MVP usually goes to an offensive player and many times the Offensive Player of the Year Award (which isn’t talked about much) is given to a player who put up great numbers on a team with a not so great record.  I think the Vikings are going to disappoint this year and if Peterson goes for 2000 yards and the Vikings go 6-10 he’s almost guaranteed to get Offensive Player of the Year and not MVP.

Defensive Player of the Year

There is no telling who will pop up when it comes to this award.  JJ Watt is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year but this is a tough one to repeat and going into last season I don’t think anybody had Watt in the top ten contenders so I won’t try to make a list.

I had every intention of choosing LB Von Miller of the Broncos for this award and then he went and got suspended for the first six games of the season.  He’s a great player but he’s going to have to have an unbelievable 10 games if he’s going to pull this off and I’m not counting on it.  Guys with lots of sacks or lots of interceptions tend to get the most notice so DE’s, OLB’s and CB’s are probably the best bet which is why I liked Miller.  CB Richard Sherman from the Seahawks likes to claim he’s the best corner in the league and he might just be but I don’t think he’ll win it.  Geno Atkins from the Bengals is one of the best DT’s in the league but DT’s don’t get a lot of notice but if he were to have a JJ Watt type of impact he could come out of nowhere.  Watt won it playing DE in a 3-4 defense which is unusual because it’s not usually a high sack number position but he made it one and if he could repeat last year he could pull it off again but it’s unlikely.  I love MLB’s Patrick Willis from San Francisco and Brian Cushing from Houston but they may get outshined by teammates that put up big stats.  DE Cameron Wake from Miami should put up a huge sack total this year as he is usually near the top of the leader board and this year he has rookie DE Dion Jordan taking some of the pressure off of him.  The Dolphins would have to have a pretty good season for Wake to get the credit he deserves and I don’t see them being great.

My Pick:  OLB Aldon Smith    San Francisco 49ers

The league’s best defense resides in San Francisco and while Patrick Willis and Justin Smith are the heart and soul of that defense it’s Aldon Smith that is going to put up the numbers.  Smith is an excellent pass rusher and he could lead the league in that category at any time.  He’s become a much better overall LB and while the 49ers have a number of great players (Willis, Justin Smith and Navorro Bowman) it’s Aldon Smith that will get the most recognition.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: RB Eddie Lacy, RB LeVeon Bell, RB Giovani Bernard, QB EJ Manuel, WR Tavon Austin, WR DeAndre Hopkins

My Dark Horse Candidates:  WR Keenan Allen and WR Kenbrell Thompkins

The injury to DuJuan Harris gives Eddie Lacy a huge opportunity and the injury to LeVeon Bell may cost him his best opportunity.  Lacy becomes the top back in Green Bay by default with Harris being put on IR.  Bell looked like the top back in Pittsburgh until a foot injury sidelined him, luckily for Bell and the Steelers the injury doesn’t look as bad as initially thought but it means he may have to play catch up entering the season.  EJ Manuel and Geno Smith look like the only rookie starting QB’s and with the Jets offense I don’t see Smith being a factor in the ROY race.  Manuel is coming back from an injury but it looks like he’ll be okay and the Bills offense has enough weapons to help Manuel put up points but he may unfairly be measured against last year’s rookie QB class and he won’t measure up.  WR Tavon Austin can be a playmaker but Chris Givens has stepped up to be Sam Bradford’s top target meaning Austin probably won’t put up the consistent numbers needed to be a player in the ROY race.  WR DeAndre Hopkins is going to be the compliment to Andre Johnson and in the Texans’ offense that should mean plenty of opportunities and Hopkins has looked great in the preseason.  My first dark horse is WR Keenan Allen of the San Diego Chargers.  The Chargers do not look good but some key injuries and the axing of Robert Meachem means there will be ample opportunities for Allen to step up at WR.  Allen has a ton of talent and he could shine because Phillip Rivers is going to have to throw to somebody.  The other dark horse is undrafted gem WR Kenbrell Thompkins and if he wins this award he has to give it Tom Brady.

My Pick:  RB Giovani Bernard   Cincinnati Bengals

I have been talking about Bernard since before the draft when he wasn’t even on a team.  Now he’s on a team where he only has to beat out BenJarvus Green-Ellis for carries and while the Bengals will still use Green-Ellis because he is reliable Bernard is the playmaker the Bengals need.  Bernard’s size and skill set reminds me of Ray Rice and he can be that good.  The Bengals are looking for someone to give their offense a spark and take some pressure off of Andy Dalton and AJ Green and they found it in the best back in the draft.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders:   LB Jarvis Jones, LB Alec Ogletree, DT Star Lotulelei, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DE Dion Jordan, CB Dee Milliner, S Kenny Vaccaro, CB Desmond Trufant

My Dark Horse Pick: LB Sio Moore

Jarvis Jones would be the runaway winner of this award if he stays completely healthy all season but he couldn’t even stay healthy through the preseason and is still battling Jason Worilds at OLB so I’m not picking him.  DT Star Lotulelei is a devastating talent but he plays for the Panthers and their defense is likely to be bad and that makes it hard for a DT to stand out.  DE’s Ezekiel Ansah and Dion Jordan are both in situations that could lead to nice sack numbers for each of them.  Ansah is playing on a defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly and Jordan will be the pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake meaning both will be facing a lot of one-on-one blocking.  CB Dee Milliner is a starter for the Jets and teams will likely target him instead of Antonio Cromartie meaning he could make plays that will get him noticed.  S Kenny Vaccaro is a player the Saints need to make a difference and if he does he will be a ROY candidate for sure.  LB Sio Moore could be the one bright spot on an otherwise underwhelming Raiders defense.  Moore was a third round draft pick and he could be a big playmaker on a defense that won’t have many of them.  If Ogletree can keep his character concerns from derailing his immense talent then he might just be the best rookie defender in the league this year.  So far in the preseason he has shown why everyone was in love with his talent now he just has to prove the Rams were right to have faith in him.

My Pick:  CB Desmond Trufant   Atlanta Falcons

Trufant didn’t have the hype of Dee Milliner or the size of Xavier Rhodes but he is the best cover corner from this draft and he is starting for a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons lost Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson in the offseason so Trufant steps in opposite Asante Samuel and he is going to go up against some very good QB’s this season.  Luckily he has to practice every day against Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones meaning some Sundays are going to be a welcome break for him.  Usually CB’s have to put up big interception numbers to win individual awards but playing for such a high profile team will help Trufant get noticed even if teams avoid throwing his way.

 

Bold and Not-So-Bold Predictions for the 2013 Season (and some random thoughts)

–          Despite the fact that no RBs were taken in the first round of the 2013 Draft that doesn’t mean rookie RBs won’t play a huge part for many teams.  Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball and LeVeon Bell will all be playing for playoff or near playoff teams.  Christine Michael (Seahawks), Knile Davis (Kansas City) and Zac Stacy (St. Louis) will all be important backups but there are two other tailbacks that could be very important.  Joseph Randle and Stepfan Taylor could prove to be major players if injuries strike DeMarco Murray and Rashard Mendenhall again.  Dallas and Arizona made two solid picks late in the draft that could pay huge dividends.

–          Jacksonville, Oakland, NY Jets, Buffalo and San Diego will be the five worst teams in the NFL this season.  Yes there is a decided AFC slant here and truthfully the only NFC team I can see challenging these five is Carolina with Philadelphia being a possibility given their terrible defense.  If Michael Vick gets hurt or isn’t as good as he’s looked in preseason then Philly’s defense could be spend too much time on the field and be epically bad.

–          The NFC is the tougher conference top to bottom and a team with a 10-6 record will miss the playoffs in that conference.  In the AFC there is a decided split between the great, the not so good and the really bad.  New England, Denver, Cincinnati and Houston should dominate the conference while Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Miami, Tennessee and a surprising Cleveland will battle for the wild card spots.  The other five are all playing for Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgewater.

–          Rex Ryan won’t make it through the season as head coach of the New York Jets (like I said some of these are not-so-bold predictions).  The Jets are so desperate they are grabbing almost every castoff QB they can, first it was Graham Harrell and now it’s Brady Quinn.  Mark Sanchez is hurt and he may be put on IR and miss the season, lucky him.  Geno Smith isn’t ready to be a starter but the Jets have no choice but to start him.  Matt Simms has actually looked better but he hasn’t faced a NFL first team defense yet either.  Marty Mornhinweg is on board as the offensive coordinator and will be the future interim head coach for the franchise.  Complete coaching staff overhaul to follow after the season.

–          Danny Amendola will play in all 16 games and lead the league in receptions.  Okay this is part prediction and part prayer.  The Patriots need Amendola’s considerable talent to stay on the field and replace Wes Welker’s production.  Amendola has only scratched the surface of what he can be and he will be fun to watch playing with Brady.

–          Carson Palmer will have a great year throwing the football.  Arizona will be improved as Bruce Arians downfield passing attack will make Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts shine.  Unfortunately for the Cardinals their division is murder’s row and their record won’t be great but Cardinal fans will enjoy the aerial show.  It won’t quite reach Kurt Warner territory but the nightmare of Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer will just be a bad memory.

–          The Bengals make a run to the top of their division and Marvin Lewis wins Coach of the Year.  I didn’t give this award a full breakdown because Coach of the Year is such a strange category. It usually goes to the guy who does the most with the least expectations.  Rarely does the best coach win it just a guy who does a good job coaching up his team.  Marvin Lewis gets the recognition but Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons also deserves some credit.

–          Big money free agent WR Mike Wallace will be a disappointment in Miami as he isn’t quite the deep threat the Dolphins hope he will be.  That coupled with the loss of TE Dustin Keller to an injury and RB Reggie Bush to free agency means a lot of pressure falls on Ryan Tannehill and new RB Lamar Miller.  The defense keeps the Dolphins in games and Tannehill plays fine but the offensive keeps them out of the playoffs.

–          RGIII plays in all 16 games this season…wait I said bold predictions not idiotic ones…never mind.

–          Andrew Luck finishes the season with the third most passing yards on the year.  Only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees finish ahead of him.  Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Darrius Heyward-Bey give Luck three good WRs along with Dwayne Allen (once he’s healthy) and Coby Fleener at TE to make the Colts passing attack seriously good.  That along with the fact that Ahmad Bradshaw will be done for the year in about week 5 leaving them with no running game meaning Luck’s numbers could be ridiculous.

–          Jerry Jones fires Jason Garrett half way through the season and names himself head coach…Roger Goodell doesn’t find it funny either and says “Sorry Jerry you can’t do that”,  but Cowboys fans are even less amused when Bill Callahan is actually named interim head coach.  (You’ll have to figure out for yourself if I’m kidding about this.)

–          The Raiders apparently decided not to try to break the record for holding penalties in a season so they cut Alex Barron, from starter to free agent in less than a week.  Even the Raiders knew it was too obvious of a tank job to let Barron protect the QB’s blind side.  Oh and their life insurance rates on their QBs would have been astronomical.  Instead they are starting a guy who has only played football for a few years and had never played LT until the last preseason game.  I guess Terrelle Pryor’s punishment for everything that happened at Ohio St. will finally be served.

–          I will win both of the Fantasy Football leagues I’m in.  That’s not really a bold prediction more of an inevitable fact.

 

 

 

 

 

2013 NFL Preview   AFC

AFC East

Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms, EJ Manuel, Kevin Kolb (sort of), Jeff Tuel and Matt Leinart; these are the 11 reasons why I’m sure the Patriots will win this division.  These are all of the QB’s on the rosters of the other three teams in the division.  Tom Brady is so far ahead of these guys I don’t care if the Patriots dust off Troy Brown at WR I’m not betting against Brady in this division.  The truth is that not only do the Patriots have the best QB in the division they have the 3^rd best QB in the division.  Seriously, other than Ryan Tannehill, do you think there is a single QB on that list that the Patriots would trade Ryan Mallett straight up for?  If the Jets called Bill Belichick tomorrow and offered Geno Smith straight up for Mallett Belichick would laugh and hang up.

*Last minute edit: the Jets signed former Green Bay back-up Graham Harrell, somehow I don’t think Belichick and Brady are worried.   

New England Patriots:

Tom Brady obviously gives the Patriots the decided advantage in this division but that isn’t all they have.  Steven Ridley was exactly what the offense needed last year as an every down back and this year Shane Vereen looks completely capable of replacing Danny Woodhead’s production.  Danny Amendola could catch 120 passes this year if he plays 16 games and come on he has to stay healthy one of these years right?  Brady is going to make Kenbrell Thompkins a very rich in about 4 years when he’s a free agent and someone overpays him and then realizes they don’t have Tom Brady throwing to him.  The defense will be good but the secondary will likely be their undoing in the playoffs again.  As you can tell from the QB’s in their division having a bad secondary won’t hurt them as much in the regular season but things get a little tougher in the post season.

Miami Dolphins:

Teams that spend a boatload of money in free agency trying to right the ship rarely accomplish the goal.  Mike Wallace, Dustin Keller (already injured), Brandon Gibson, Dannell Ellerbe, Phillip Wheeler and Brent Grimes were all signed and I give the Dolphins credit because most of these guys are coming into their prime years but history is not on their side.  All of the progress they hope to make on offense with Wallace and Gibson may be undone by the fact that they let Jake Long and their one offensive weapon from last year Reggie Bush walk.  Jonathan Martin has struggled moving to Long’s old position at LT and Wallace’s deep speed won’t do any good if Tannehill is lying in a heap three seconds after taking the snap.  Lamar Miller has failed to seize the RB position from the soon-to-be-injured (I’m just assuming the inevitable) Daniel Thomas making the offense even more suspect.  The defense could be good, there is serious potential on that side of the ball but it will all be for nothing if they can’t stay off the field.

Buffalo Bills:

The Bills QB position is more tragic while the Jets QB position is just comical and the Bills are far less of mess everywhere else so they finish above the Jets.  EJ Manuel had a procedure on his knee that might keep him out the first and Kevin Kolb sustained another concussion that might end his career (nothing funny about either of those things).  This leaves the Bills with undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel who went 4-22 as a starter at Washington St. and newly signed Matt Leinart as their options to possibly start week 1…against New England.  Good luck guys.  More good news…the Bills have lost their best CB Stephon Gilmore for the foreseeable future.  I would accuse the Bills of tanking the season but this is just bad luck, a lot of bad luck.  Doug Marrone must be wondering if he can get his Syracuse job back.

New York Jets:

If Jerry Seinfeld, Bill Cosby and Johnny Carson got together they couldn’t write something this funny.  The Jets pass on Geno Smith twice in the first round of the draft and somehow he falls to them in the second round so they take him but they don’t hand him the starting job, it’s a “competition”.  Smith is slightly injured so he doesn’t play much and of course Mark Sanchez still can’t wrap up the job.  Smith finally plays in the “dress rehearsal” third pre-season game and proceeds to throw 3 picks and runs out of the back of the end zone accidently for a safety.  Rex Ryan then puts Sanchez into a game he didn’t think he was going to play in, behind a horrific second team offensive line, and Sanchez gets hammered into the ground and hurts his shoulder.  Fourth string QB Matt Simms comes in and looks like Dan Marino compared to these two and he’s probably going to get cut next week.  Don’t worry they have Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell at tailback and their top WR is Jeremy Kerley…wait, never mind… even if they had Dan Marino they would still finish last.  The good news is that the defense has some really nice players the new coaching staff next year can build a 4-3 defense around.  The Jets are taking tanking to a new level too bad the Jaguars and the Raiders are trying it too.

AFC North

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have owned this division for so long people forget who the other two teams are but that is about to change.  The Bengals are poised to finally step up as the Steelers and Ravens take small steps back and the Browns are…well…still the Browns.  The Bengals have coaching stability (the only head coach more tenured then Marvin Lewis is Bill Belichick), a solid QB with some really nice weapons and a killer defense.  Baltimore won the Super Bowl and while I think they did fine replacing Ray Lewis and Ed Reed it’s the trade of Anquan Boldin and the injury to Dennis Pitta that will come back to bite them.  The Steelers aren’t rebuilding but they are retooling around some younger guys.

Cincinnati Bengals:

It’s not just Marvin Lewis that gives the Bengals coaching stability they return offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, continuity goes a long way which is the reason the Ravens and Steelers have been so good for so long and the Brown haven’t.  Andy Dalton has one of the great emerging WR’s in the NFL in AJ Green and the Bengals got those two some help in the draft with TE Tyler Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard.  Bernard will eventually usurp BenJarvus Green-Ellis at tailback and Eifert offers a different look then Jermaine Gresham, a nice weapon in his own right.  The Bengals defense rarely gets mentioned with top defenses in the league but they are right there.  Geno Atkins is the most underrated destructive force in football; no one talks about him except opposing players that are trying to figure out how to block him.  The Bengals aren’t just a force in their division they could make serious noise in the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens:

When you lose two Hall of Famers on your defense you should expect to take a step back but when said Hall of Famers weren’t exactly playing at their peak last year it makes replacing them much easier.  Veteran LB Daryl Smith was brought in and while he won’t do the flashy pre-game dance Ray Lewis did he is more than capable of replacing his production on the field.  Ed Reed wasn’t himself even when he played last year and while Michael Huff is never going to be Ed Reed at his finest he can be better than Reed was last year.  This is the Ravens defense and it will be good again.  I can’t say the same for the offense.  Without Boldin and Pitta too much of the receiving burden falls on Torrey Smith and while the signings of Brandon Stokly and Dallas Clark would have been excellent in 2005 it’s not enough in 2013.  Joe Flacco got paid like a franchise QB this offseason but I have yet to see him turn middling WR’s into stars like Tom Brady does which means a lot rides on the legs of Ray Rice.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

This just seems like a transitional year for the Steelers.  Casey Hampton is officially gone, James Harrison was let go, Rashard Mendenhall left, Mike Wallace got paid by someone else and Troy Polamalu has to be on his last legs.  The Steelers are counting on a couple of rookies to come up big; LeVeon Bell at RB and Jarvis Jones at OLB except both are banged up.  Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer can hold the fort at RB but they don’t scare anyone.  Jason Worilds is just a guy at OLB until Jones can be healthy and productive.  The biggest impact rookie could be WR Markus Wheaton as he steps in as the third receiver, Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders have moved into the starting roles but Wheaton is a player.  The Steelers won’t be bad, they rarely ever are, but I don’t see them competing at the top of the AFC.

Cleveland Browns:

Stability is just a theory in Cleveland as they once again got a new team President, GM, head coach and coaching staff.  The good news is that Mike Lombardi is a bright personnel guy, Rod Chudzinski is solid head coaching hire and coordinators Norv Turner and Ray Horton are top notch.  This team has some great looking players but no one has been able to get the whole to add up to the sum of its parts.  There is great potential in RB Trent Richardson, WR Josh Gordon, WR Greg Little and TE Jordan Cameron while LT Joe Thomas is one of the best in the league.  The front seven on defense looks fantastic but other than CB Joe Haden the secondary needs an overhaul.  SS TJ Ward is okay and Leon McFadden might be a good nickel corner but that isn’t enough.  This team also looks like it’s again starting the season with six losses as their division is so tough.  This franchise needs to finally stick to a plan and it looks like they may actually be doing that this time.

AFC South

The Texans have finally figured out how to win a lot during the regular season and now they just have to figure out how to do it in the playoffs.  Andrew Luck is the reason teams are tanking this year to try to get Teddy Bridgewater because nothing saves a franchise like a franchise QB.  Tennessee invested heavily on the interior of their offensive line hoping Chris Johnson will rediscover his mojo and the Jacksonville Jaguars named the injured Blaine Gabbert their week 1 starter because they decided not to hide the fact that they are tanking. The don’t care whether it’s Teddy Bridgewater or Jadeveon Clowney that they get they just know they need one of the top two picks in the 2014 draft.

Houston Texans:

It took them a decade and about twenty tries but it finally looks like the Texans found a WR to compliment and actually lessen the burden on Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins is the man.  Arian Foster hasn’t played in the pre-season but that’s not unusual and Ben Tate has looked healthy and fantastic and if he can stay that way the Texans won’t miss a beat in the 3 or 4 games Foster sits out this season (you don’t have to be clairvoyant to know Foster won’t play 16 games).  The return of Brian Cushing is fantastic news for the defense, JJ Watt may be the reigning Defensive Player of the Year but Cushing is the leader of that defense and they missed him more than people realized when he was injured last year.  The one hole on defense the Texans are crossing their fingers over is free safety, they signed Ed Reed away from the Ravens and they hope he can squeeze one last season out of his considerable talent.

Indianapolis Colts:

So Peyton Manning gets injured and the Colts know they have to move on so they play Curtis Painter and some other schmucks at QB, win two games and end up with Andrew Luck who leads them to 11 wins his rookie year.  See tanking does work when there is a genuine franchise QB waiting in the draft (sorry Kansas City).  Luck is so good he has made Darrius Heyward-Bey look like a legitimate NFL WR in the pre-season.  The addition of Ahmad Bradshaw could be huge if he can stay on the field.  The defense was adequate last year and while there have been a few changes it looks like they can be just as good this year.  The Colts do face a tougher schedule then they did last year so they may not win 11 games again but they will be good as long as Luck is lining up under center.

Tennessee Titans:

The Titans spent big money on LG Andy Levitre and a first round pick on RG Chance Warmack and these two are doing exactly what they wanted which is open holes for Chris Johnson to run through.  The also signed Shonn Greene to take over as the short yardage/goal line back a job that Johnson does not excel at.  It is time for Jake Locker to step up and prove the Titans were right to take him so high in the draft and he has no excuses left.  The offensive line is fixed, Johnson and Greene should provide a legitimate running game and so far Kenny Britt isn’t injured or suspended (either of those things could change at any second).  The defense is hoping that last year’s free agent DE Kamerion Wimbley will provide the pass rush he was supposed to bring last year but that seems unlikely.  Without a better pass rush this defense is middle-of-the-pack at best but that’s good enough to keep them ahead of Jacksonville.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

The Jaguars are taking the position that they are going to give Blaine Gabbert every chance to prove he is their QB of the future…in other words they know he sucks and he’s the best chance they have at picking in the top two in next year’s draft.  They know the worst case scenario if they finish in the bottom two of the league is they either get Gabbert’s replacement in Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater or they get the pass rushing DE they have desperately needed for years now in Jadeveon Clowney from South Carolina. The only thing worse than the Gabbert led offense is the atrocious defense they Jags have assembled.  New head coach Gus Bradley worked with a great no-name defense in Seattle but those unknown players were actually good, the best player on the Jaguars defense is….give me minute…I’m sorry I need another minute, hold on…Paul Posluszny?  Yeah I’m going with that.  This tank job could backfire if both Clowney and Bridgewater (who both will still have eligibility left) decide they would rather stay in college and play for free than get paid to play for the Jaguars.

AFC West

The Peyton Manning led Broncos should own this division with the only possible threat coming from Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs had six Pro Bowlers last season in what has to be the best argument for discontinuing that game.  Kansas City had the misfortune of finally earning the #1 pick in the draft in a year where there was no franchise QB to take.  The Chargers are breaking in a new coaching staff while trying to get Phillip Rivers killed behind either King Dunlap or Max Starks at LT.  The Raiders are trying to out tank the Jaguars by not deciding on a QB and having their best offensive lineman LT Jared Veldheer lost for the season without a viable back-up.

Denver Broncos:

Peyton Manning has never had it so easy in a division race.  The Broncos will be missing superstar LB Von Miller for the first six games of the season and they could still have this division wrapped up before December.  Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker give Manning an unrivaled top 3 WR corps and between Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno they should be able to find a running game.  The defense will miss Miller and free agent loss Elvis Dumervil but even a middle-of-the-pack defense is enough for this team to win 13 games with their offense against the AFC.

Kansas City Chiefs:

The Chiefs finish second in this division by default.  They should be solid but not spectacular which is pretty much what will be written on QB Alex Smith’s tombstone someday.  Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are the only playmakers on offense unless Andy Reid can devise a way to make Dexter McCluster an actual weapon.  The Chiefs defense has a chance to be very good with pass rushing OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston bringing pressure and a secondary with talent like Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith and Eric Berry.  Reid has assembled a good coaching staff and they will get more out of the talent on this team than the previous staffs did.  Alex Smith is good enough to be a winning QB in the NFL but only if he has a great running game and a stellar defense.  The Chiefs aren’t there just yet but they are on the right track.

San Diego Chargers:

The good news is that the weather is always nice in San Diego.  Sorry that’s all I got.  The Chargers do have the second best QB in this division the problem is he can’t complete passes while lying on the ground.  They signed free agents King Dunlap and Max Starks to compete at LT and there was a reason these two were available.  Dunlap hasn’t been completely terrible in the pre-season but I wouldn’t expect him to hold up over an entire year.  Top WR Danario Alexander was lost for the year already and Malcolm Floyd is banged up.  Ryan Mathews has looked solid in the pre-season but he’s still Ryan Mathews so expectations shouldn’t be set too high.  The Chargers lost their one big playmaker on defense before training camp even got going when Melvin Ingram tore up his knee and now they are counting on Dwight Freeney to provide the pass rush so don’t expect that to work out very well.  The depth on this team is suspect at best and if they didn’t have Phillip Rivers in his prime years they would be in full rebuilding mode instead they are stuck in no man’s land.

Oakland Raiders:

The only team with a chance to out suck the Jaguars is the Oakland Raiders.  They traded for Matt Flynn to be their QB and now it looks like they may hand the reigns to Terrelle Pryor instead.  Flynn may actually be the lucky one here because when they lost their starting LT for the season their first option was to plug in Alex Barron aka The Human Holding Penalty.  At least Pryor has the athleticism to run away from the onslaught of pass rushers that will be running past Barron when he fails to hold onto them.  The best skill position player on the Raiders is RB Darren McFadden but he isn’t going anywhere behind an offensive line featuring Barron and Khalif Barnes at the OT position.  Seriously, the other starting skill position players are WR Denarius Moore (he should be someone’s #3 slot receiver), WR Rod Streater (not kidding) and TE Richard Gordon (who’s trying to prove not all Miami TE’s are great).  The Raiders offense is a joke and their defense is even worse.  Charles Woodson is probably the best player on their defense and that was fine in 2003 but this is 2013.