So Kirk Ferentz decided to hold a press conference to announce…nothing.  Nothing at all.  Oh wait…two guys are transferring and one guy is unable to continue his career due to injury.  Isn’t that what press releases are for?  According to Kirk “we needed to talk”, those words usually come when a relationship is about to end, no one wants to hear their boyfriend or girlfriend say “we need to talk”… unless you want out of the relationship too.  That hope is now gone.  The rumors leading up to “the most important press conference in Kirk’s tenure”, sorry that’s a message board moniker, was that Kirk was going to retire or he’s going to announce staff changes or he’s only coming back for one more year and then he’s handing the reigns to his son Brian (that was my favorite rumor only because of the absurdness of it).  You can call Kirk Ferentz a lot of things (overpaid, out-of-touch, stubborn) but he’s a professional and knows how the coaching world works and he wasn’t going to wait until the middle of January to announce his retirement, no matter what you think of Coach Ferentz he wasn’t going to put the University in that position.  The idea that Kirk is going to get to just hand the program to his son is laughable in today’s college football world (he may hand him the offensive coordinator’s job but the head job is not his to give).  I was hoping beyond hope that he was going to announce that Greg Davis had decided to ride off into the sunset and he was going to begin a national search for a new offensive coordinator/QB coach, no such luck.  Then Kirk Ferentz took questions and proceeded to flip the bird, metaphorically, to anyone who believes the program needs change.

When asked about any possible coaching moves Ferentz used his usual “we’ll look at some things” and “it takes time” fallback answers, he did eventually say that some adjustments might be made.  Well unless the adjustment is Davis being put in charge of sharpening pencils I’m not feeling optimistic about the Hawkeye’s offense next season.  If there isn’t going to be any wholesale changes to the offensive staff than I am all for making Brian Ferentz the offensive coordinator for two reasons.  1. He may be the only coach on the offensive staff with some new ideas and a good enough grasp of our players to actually use the players we have.  Iowa isn’t about to get a bunch of new freshmen next year that are going to change the dynamics of the offense so somebody better figure out a way to better utilize the talent we have on hand.  2. Handing the offensive over to Brian Ferentz puts Kirk’s neck on the line.  If Brian succeeds and turns things around that’s fantastic because the Hawkeyes would be good again.  If it goes the other way and the Hawkeyes fall farther then the choice to get rid of Kirk is made for you.  Sometimes you have to push all your chips to the center of the table and hope you’ve got the best hand, if you don’t you walk away.  I’m a born and bred Hawkeye fan and I want the program to succeed but I also understand that sometimes the only way you succeed in the long run is to take your lumps now.

There were so many disturbing things said by Ferentz in his press conference that I’m not sure I can cover them all but I’ll give it a try.  He tried to assure everyone that he’s not tone deaf, all evidence to the contrary, and that he wants to make changes, not just change for change sake but the right changes.  Unfortunately 16 years’ worth of evidence makes this hard to believe.  His comment about not being tone deaf was followed up just a few minutes later by a question about changing schemes and Ferentz answered by talking about how well the team was doing academically and how no one ever talks about that.  That’s great Kirk except that wasn’t the question that was asked, maybe when he said he wasn’t tone deaf he was trying to tell us he’s actually deaf and can’t hear what questions that are being asked.

When asked about the change at QB and listing CJ Beathard as the starter on his never-before-released January two-deeps and if he regretted not playing Beathard more during the season Ferentz said “I’m not a big one looking backwards”.  Except if you read the entire transcript of the press conference (and I have several times) he has no problem going back and referencing the 1999 and 2000 seasons and how they had to push through those tough years (he referenced 1999 six times in case you’re wondering).  It was starting to feel like talking to someone with Alzheimer’s, he can recall 16 years ago without a problem but the issues of today don’t seem to concern him.

Ferentz started to talk about how he was spending too much time “outside of the building” meaning he has been spending too much time with donors, giving speeches and doing appearances.  That’s all part of the job and I’m glad he knows he need to change it but it’s a little disconcerting because exactly how long has this been a problem.  Obviously that is a part of the job of a major Division 1 coach and he was needed to help raise funds for the new football complex but coaching has to come first and if you aren’t making that priority #1 that is a huge problem.

In conjunction with his take on needing to spend more time coaching he talked about how he and his staff needed to study other teams and what they are doing and make adjustments but as I said before 16 years’ worth of evidence says he won’t really change. His own words say the same thing and this is where Ferentz really gets into an area that he loses my support. When asked about studying other programs and being open to changing schemes Ferentz said “Yeah, a lot of people are hung up on offense, at least that’s been my take for 16 years. We’re probably not going to be a spread team or a run shoot team. I don’t see that happening. We just don’t have the access to some of the personnel that some of those folks do that are running the points up”.  I’m sorry Kirk but that is a cop out and it is only true if you let it be true. Ferentz also mentions that Iowa still likes to play defense as if having a good offense and a good defense are mutually exclusive ideas. There are a couple of things wrong with the idea that Iowa can’t run an up tempo offense or that somehow the Hawkeyes have to be a three yards and a cloud of dust offense. The idea that you have to have athletes like Oregon, Auburn or Ohio St to run a high octane offense is ludicrous. I’ve watched schools like Indiana and Northwestern have highly productive offenses with players much like the ones Iowa recruits. What kind of success could Iowa have if they put an offense like Indiana’s alongside a typical (not the 2014 version) Iowa defense. My other issue with this thinking is the apparent blind spot Ferentz has for his own personnel. I would like to see Ferentz go up to Tevaun Smith and tell him “Sorry, we can’t run a high flying offense because you’re not good enough”. Does he really believe that the talent he has on the offensive side of the ball isn’t good enough? If Tevaun Smith played at Indiana for an offensive coach like Kevin Wilson he would have caught 100 balls last season. I’ve made my case before about how Iowa’s offense doesn’t use the talent it has and now I understand why, Ferentz just doesn’t have the confidence in his players that I do. Teams like Indiana and Northwestern have struggled overall and I’m not saying I want a program like that but one thing they have been pretty good at over the past five years or so is offense and Iowa has not.

Ferentz seems to have this defeatist attitude towards his offense but it doesn’t start there. It starts on the recruiting trail where Iowa sometimes doesn’t even get into the recruiting game with top notch skill position players. I understand that impulse when you know they are going to look at your offensive philosophy and laugh you out of the room. But it doesn’t take a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits to have a potent offense.  Take a look at schools like TCU and Baylor two of the higher scoring offenses in the country. QB Bryce Petty of Baylor and QB Trevone Boykin of TCU were both 3 star recruits and Ferentz’s belief that it’s going to take a few years to turn around his offense is also an antiquated notion. TCU is the perfect example for Ferentz to follow. Gary Patterson has been a highly successful coach in his time with the Horned Frogs and his teams have been known for their stellar defenses his entire tenure. TCU’s offenses have been good at times but in 2013 it wasn’t great and it resulted in a 4-8 record and Patterson’s second bowl-less season of his tenure. He didn’t stand pat, he didn’t bury his head in the sand and say “we’ve won my way in the past so it’s fine”, he recognized his team’s offense wasn’t good enough and he committed to changing with the times and updating his scheme. He hired Doug Meacham and Sonnie Cumbie as co-coordinators, two guys with experience in high octane offenses and he let them go to work. They had an open QB competition during fall camp and it was Trevone Boykin, a converted WR, that won the job and all he did was lead them to a 12-1 record, the cusp of the College Football Playoff and set himself up as a top Heisman contender next season. Yep, the next year.

I’m not here to advocate that Iowa implement the Baylor/TCU offensive style because it isn’t necessary to compete in the Big Ten but watching teams like Ohio St (hey, all they did this year was win a National Title), Minnesota, Indiana and Northwestern and looking at the good things they do isn’t asking too much. Wisconsin, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska and Ohio St all ran the ball while also finding a way to effectively pass the ball, okay maybe not Wisconsin so much but the others did. Iowa could use better talent, besides Ohio St who couldn’t, but that doesn’t mean Iowa doesn’t have some talent. Since it looks like Ferentz isn’t going anywhere anytime soon it’s time to not only re-evaluate the offensive philosophy but also the use of the personnel. The graduation of middling talents like Mark Weisman, Kevonte Martin-Manley and Damon Bullock should force Ferentz and the coaching staff to use some other players. Hopefully they will give a fair chance to young guys like LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley at RB and Andre Harris, Derrick Mitchell and Jay Scheel at WR. If next year’s offense is a steady diet of Jordan Canzeri running the football and passes thrown to Jacob Hillyer and Matt Vandeberg then all Hawkeye fans are in for more of the same.

I’ve been harping on the offense and Greg Davis specifically and for good reason but that doesn’t mean I’m ready to let the defense off the hook. The good news is 2014 was the exception and not the rule when talking about Iowa’s defense. They were not good for most of the year and downright terrible too many times (Minnesota and Tennessee games the most glaring examples). As good as Christian Kirksey, James Morris and Anthony Hitchens were blaming the loss of those three completely for Iowa’s pathetic 2014 is far too simplistic. As with many problems the Hawkeyes face it begins with recruiting and not only missing out on players but miss evaluating the guys they do get. The defensive line is stacked pretty well up the middle at defensive tackle and even with the graduation of stalwarts Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat the interior of the line is still in good hands. Drew Ott is a solid DE that will hopefully have a big senior year next year but he is still not a dominant rush end. Nate Meier is a try hard DE with some speed but not a lot of bulk and he certainly hasn’t been lighting it up as pass rusher. After those two the only hope comes in the form of three redshirt freshman next season; Matt Nelson, Terrance Harris and Parker Hesse. Having two or three classes’ worth of nothing at DE isn’t helping the defense. I assume Phil Parker’s reluctance to use the Raider package this last season as he did in 2013 stems from not having the players to make it work but that is on the staff for having so little quality at LB in the upper classes. When Travis Perry and Cole Fisher are the only two upper classmen that could possibly see time at the position next year and they don’t because redshirt freshmen are better than they are that should make the coaching staff re-evaluate what they have been doing recruiting wise. The two best linebackers in 2014 (they were far from stellar and I hope that’s because they are young) were Josey Jewell and Bo Bower. Jewell was late offer during the recruiting period and Bower originally came to Iowa as a walk-on so that doesn’t make me feel great about the staff’s evaluation skills. My last issue on defense is the safety position, against all odds the staff has actually done a pretty good job at cornerback and has both talent and depth at the position; the same cannot be said at safety. FS Jordan Lomax is solid going into his senior season but the coaching staff lucked into him ending up there after the emergence of Desmond King two years ago and the development of several other players allowing Lomax to slide inside. The continued use of John Lowdermilk over the past two seasons has shown just how poorly Iowa has recruited at safety. Ferentz’s propensity to play the guy that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes but also doesn’t make many plays is extremely frustrating. Lowdermilk had his moments but far too often was overmatched in coverage or out of position in run support or as was the case against Tennessee just simply out of his league. The fact that the only real backup to him was true freshman Miles Taylor shows you that the dearth of talent in the redshirt freshmen, sophomore and junior classes is consistent throughout the defense. Phil Parker can coach this defense and they can be good but he has to have more talent and that is on him, coach Ferentz and the rest of the staff to do a better job recruiting talent.

In the NFL there is a belief that it takes three good draft classes in a row to build a franchise and that has proven to be true more often than not and in college football I can tell you without question that 3 recruiting classes giving you very little help will kill your program every time. Recruiting is the lifeblood of every college program and when you consistently miss on players over several classes it makes a coach’s job that much harder.  I’m not one to get caught up in the star rating system used by Rivals, 24/7 Sports or ESPN because they make mistakes. There are loads of examples of 4 and 5 star recruiting busts and just as many 3 star guys that become great players but it isn’t a coincidence that teams like Oregon, Alabama, Florida St. and Ohio St have rosters full of 4 and 5 star players. You can still be a good team with 3 star level prospects but it would be a lot easier if you tried to give your 3 star talent a schematic advantage. There’s an old saying that Hayden Fry was fond of that says, “Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard”. Well guess what, better talent kicks lesser talent’s ass when they know exactly what the lesser talent is going to do and it’s been a long time since anyone was surprised by Iowa.

If Kirk Ferentz isn’t going anywhere and he’s not going to make any coaching changes then for the sake of the Hawkeye program I hope he does what he said he would do during his press conference. I hope he spends more time coaching and less time smoozing. I hope he spends time looking at offenses from this decade, that would help. I hope he re-evaluates the way they are recruiting (I am actually more excited by some of this upcoming recruiting class than most). I hope he spends time evaluating the players he has and decides to use the talent available to him. I hope he puts Greg Davis in charge of sharpening pencils and then buys all his coaches new pens. I hope he realizes that this is the last stand and that being his usual conservative self is detrimental to his team. I have very little confidence that any of this is going to happen because after 16 years I know better. Finally I hope that if none of my hopes come true and Iowa is as bad as they were this last year that a year from now I’m writing about Iowa’s new head coach. I hope I’m writing about some breath of fresh air that is coming to Iowa and I hope I’m excited about Hawkeye football again because it’s going to be really hard to be excited about next year.

Press Conference Transcript Link

http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/011415aaf.html

Article about TCU’s new coordinators from last August Link

http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2014-08-22/tcu-football-looks-spark-offense-new-co-coordinators 

 

 

My family used to have a dog named Snickers, he was smart, independent and lived to be 16 years old.  Snickers had a great run despite being epileptic.  He was stubborn, he always had to have his end of the couch but we all loved that dog because he had such a great personality.  We endured the epileptic seizures because he lived such a great life but in end he was blind and deaf in one ear and his arthritis made it hard for him to get around.  My Dad had every intention of putting Snickers to sleep but he was just waiting to give the family one last Christmas with him then on the day after Thanksgiving several years ago Snickers “fell” down the basement stairs and ran into the wall at the end.  He was hurt and in pain and my Dad knew it was time and he did what had to be done.  I wasn’t there but I have always contended that Snickers didn’t fall down the steps he threw himself down them knowing that if he hit the wall hard enough my Dad would do the right thing and put him out of his misery.  Yesterday I watched the Iowa Hawkeyes hurl themselves down a flight of stairs hoping Gary Barta would do the right thing and put us out of our misery.  I fear Mr. Barta doesn’t have the same compassion my father has.

Kirk Ferentz has had a tremendous 16 year run as the head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes and he’s a great person and is a better man than most head coaches in college football today.  I truly prefer to have man like Ferentz running the Hawkeye program over a guy like Bo Pelini or someone like Bobby Petrino but that’s not the issue.  There are other good men out there and Ferentz’s time has run its course.  Gary Barta doesn’t have the guts to pull the trigger and fire Coach Ferentz especially not with a more than $13 million buyout hanging over his head so I’m left hoping he’ll force Ferentz to make staff changes.  Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis has to go and I’m not sure how Ferentz can make the argument to keep him, it would be a ludicrous argument to make.  After the shellacking the Hawkeye defense took yesterday against Tennessee I can make a pretty good argument for sending Defensive Coordinator Phil Parker on his way too.

Last season Parker did a solid job using the Raider package to generate a pass rush and having three elite LBs like Anthony Hitchens, James Morris and Christian Kirksey made life a lot easier.  Against Tennessee Iowa was back to the days of letting a LB (a redshirt freshman who was a walk-on a few months ago) cover a WR and get beat like a drum and Iowa’s pass rush was nowhere to be found.  Regression is not a good thing.  The specific issue with the defense against Tennessee was poor fundamentals (tackling) more than anything else.  There is a serious talent gap and that’s on all of the coaches because recruiting hasn’t been up to snuff the last few years.  Unlike the offensive side of the ball I can’t say I disagree with many personnel choices that Parker has made with the exception of strong safety were I can’t believe someone else couldn’t be better than John Lowdermilk these past two seasons.  Overall on the defensive side I think Parker was playing his best players he just needs better ones.  The LB unit is really young with redshirt freshmen Josey Jewell and Bo Bower along with sophomore Reggie Spearman showing plenty of talent but lacking in experience.  I do think Spearman struggled this year and he may not hold onto his spot.  The defensive line is stacked with talented players but this year they struggled against talented RBs and again failed to generate the kind of pass rush the Hawkeye defense needs.  This was a case of the whole not being the sum of its parts.  There is an argument to be made that a better defensive coordinator could do more with the talent on hand and could certainly do more to get more talent on hand.  Recruiting is the lifeblood of college football and the Hawkeyes aren’t doing a very good job especially on the defensive side of the ball.

I will have no faith in the Hawkeye program if Greg Davis returns as offensive coordinator.  The ineptitude at every turn over the past several seasons is unacceptable.  Game planning is one the biggest responsibilities of an offensive coordinator and I have yet to see Davis come up with a useful one.  His game plans against Iowa St. and Maryland this past season were especially atrocious.  Play calling is another major responsibility of the offensive coordinator and Davis’ philosophy of throwing the ball horizontally instead of vertically is laughable in today’s college football game.  Trying to run a 240 lbs. tailback to the edges eventually becomes comical once you get past the sheer disappointment when you realize he actually designed it that way.  Taking one of your speediest players (Jonathan Parker) and using him on the jet sweep the way Wisconsin uses Melvin Gordon is a fantastic call until everyone realizes that’s the only play you use him for and every time he enters the game everyone knows exactly what play you’re going to run.  Running a four WR set is a good idea on the 3^rd down and 6 but designing the play so that 3 out of the 4 WRs  run 4 yard routes is not.  College football offenses have become about two major philosophical things in the last 10 years; being unpredictable and creating mismatches.  Kirk Ferentz has never been one to be unpredictable on offense, even I can’t blame Davis for that one, but the only mismatches Davis creates are to the advantage of the defense.  Throwing a WR screen to Kevonte Martin-Manley is ridiculous; he hasn’t run away from a defender since junior high.  Earlier this year the Hawkeyes tried to run a play called a hook and ladder, it’s where one WR catches a pass after running a hook route and then laterals the ball to another WR that comes from behind him.  Iowa lateraled the ball to Martin-Manley this is poor use personnel and means you’re out of touch with the strengths of your own players.

I said that I only had one issue with the personnel choices on the defensive side of the ball well I’ll make up for that with plenty of issues on the offensive side.  As with anything offensive it all starts at QB.  Greg Davis isn’t just the offensive coordinator he’s the QB coach too and neither Jake Rudock nor CJ Beathard have progressed at all in the last two years.  Rudock is the cerebral type that everyone sees as the risk adverse guy that Ferentz loves because he doesn’t make mistakes.  He does keep the turnovers to a minimum but given that he’s so smart shouldn’t the QB coach be able to teach him not to dump it off so often and so quickly?  Teach him to look down field a little longer, not to lock onto his target so early and make his progression reads and find the open man?  CJ Beathard is the gunslinger, the big arm with the great feel for the game and the ability to pull it down and make a play with his legs if need be.  So why is it in two years he’s the same guy?  He hasn’t learned that the dump-off pass is okay from time to time and is actually a good play sometimes.  From what I see CJ Beathard hasn’t learned a thing in the past two years about playing QB efficiently.  Is that on the players? Some for sure but the coaches get paid to coach.  My biggest issue with the QB position is with both Davis and Ferentz.  Ferentz obviously thought Rudock was the better choice but every week this season he said he was going to give Beathard a chance, of course when the game rolled around that was seldom the case.  The old football saying is that if you have two QBs it means you don’t have one.  In this case you have two guys that you obviously aren’t completely sold on and you’re hoping one of them will play so well that he makes the decision for you but for two years you don’t coach either one of them well enough to get them to do that.

I mentioned that in today’s college football offense is about creating mismatches.  Greg Davis’ scheme doesn’t do that at all, at least not in the offenses favor but his personnel choices aren’t helping either.  Iowa fans like to complain that the Hawkeyes don’t have playmakers but I don’t see it that way at least not completely.  Tevaun Smith, Damond Powell, Jonathan Parker and Derrick Willies (before he decided to leave the team in the middle of the year) all offer playmaker skills.  I already mentioned how Ferentz and Davis negated Parker’s impact by making him the most predictable player in college football.  Damond Powell might have been a close second because he only came in to run the go route and everyone knew it.  He might have been more useful if he played more than a handful of snaps a game.  Derrick Willies was masterful in spring and fall camp and he made a couple of plays early in the year on the few plays he got in the game (we will never know what he could have been here).  Tevaun Smith is the one that really bothers me.  He gets plenty of reps as a starter but the Hawkeyes never move him around the formation to get him in a favorable matchup.  I watch a team like Maryland that has two good WRs and yet they still scheme to get Stefon Diggs in a mismatch when they need a play.  If you don’t believe me go re-watch the Iowa/ Maryland game and watch Diggs get lined up on LB or a safety anytime Maryland needed yards.  That’s what good teams do even stacked teams like Alabama.  WR Amari Cooper didn’t have 115 catches in the regular season by accident.  Alabama OC Lane Kiffin is a first rate asshat but Cooper is a special talent and Kiffin knew it.  I’m not saying Tevaun Smith is Amari Cooper but if he is we would never know it.

I’m putting a lot of blame on the coordinators and they deserve plenty but there are some position coaches that could go too if Ferentz is forced to make changes.  WR coach Bobby Kennedy is most closely associated with Davis and while I like Kennedy’s fiery personality on the sidelines he is also to blame with the misuse of some of the WRs.  RB coach Chris White made some questionable personnel decisions also but he might be looking for work because he is the Hawkeyes special teams coach.  Early in the season the kicking game was a disaster until Marshall Koehn got it together.  The punting was less than stellar all year and this all was taking place while Coach White was working with 2 scholarship punters (Dillon Kidd and Connor Kornbrath) and 2 scholarship kickers (Marshall Koehn and Mick Ellis).  That’s a lot of scholarships used on punters and kickers for not a lot of production.  The return game wasn’t any better as it became rediculous watching the Iowa punt returner (regardless of who it was) call for a fair catch no matter what.  White’s tenure as special teams coach may end up being most remembered for Jonathan Parker’s inexplicable illegal forward pass as he stepped out on the two yard line on a kick return against Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl.  I’m fairly sure White never coached Parker to do something that stupid but it sort of sums up Iowa’s special teams’ play under White.

All of this comes back to Coach Ferentz, a good man holding on for too long and it feels like his only plan to make it better is to wish for it.  Well if wishing made it so I’d look like a Calvin Klein model and be the general manager of the Patriots.  I’ve never been one to complain about the money Kirk Ferentz makes, was he supposed to turn down the 10 year extension and $4 million a year?  But 7-6 isn’t good enough and the five years of mediocrity is enough.  Gary Barta isn’t going to pull the trigger to get rid of Ferentz but he better insist on major changes and force Ferentz to make a choice.  Change or get out.  I know there is an argument of “be careful what you wish for”, Hawkeye fans badly wanted Steve Alford to leave and we saw him bolting to New Mexico as a gift and then we ended up with Todd Lickliter.  Sometimes you have to take a step back to take two steps forward.

If by some miracle Barta either grows a set and boots Ferentz or he forces his hand on staff changes and Ferentz negotiates a buyout instead then I have some thoughts on Iowa’s next head coach.  I won’t go into detail but here’s my quick take.  I don’t want Bret Bielema because he’s not the type of guy I want leading the Iowa program.  I don’t believe Bob Stoops would make the move but after his bowl blowout and the subsequent fan backlash after a lackluster season he should be Barta’s first call.  The more realistic choice in my mind is Kentucky coach Mark Stoops.  The youngest of the Stoops coaching brothers isn’t the jackass Mike is and he’s a hell of a recruiter.  If Ferentz holds on for a couple of more years I’m going to be keeping my eye on new University of Houston coach Tom Herman.  He’s done a masterful job as Ohio St.’s offensive coordinator and it doesn’t seem to matter who his QB is.

2014 NFL Predictions

NFC Playoffs

Division Winners

Philadelphia

Green Bay

New Orleans

San Francisco

Wild Card Teams

Seattle

Arizona

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco over New Orleans

AFC Playoffs

Division Winners

New England

Cincinnati

Indianapolis

Denver

Wild Card Teams

Kansas City

Baltimore

AFC Championship Game

Denver over New England

Super Bowl Prediction (if you read last year’s you know I’m terrible at this)

Denver over San Francisco

 

Individual Player Awards

 

Most Valuable Player:

Top Contenders:  QB Peyton Manning, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Adrian Peterson, RB LeSean McCoy, RB Jamaal Charles

My Dark Horse Candidate:  QB Matthew Stafford

            I picked Manning last year and he ran away with the award but I also picked Matt Ryan as my dark horse candidate and he had a terrible season.  Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady are perennial candidates and any of them could win it at any time.  Peterson is a known commodity and he’ll carry the Vikings offense but the Vikings won’t be good enough to really get Peterson into the conversation.  McCoy and Charles are big time players for their respective teams and they put up huge numbers but their teams aren’t quite good enough to really put these two into the mix but they are expected to be good so it’s not like they turned their teams’ fortunes around.  Stafford has the benefit of the Lions not being great and he is just on the cusp of being something special.  If he makes the leap and gets the Lions into the playoffs or possibly wins the NFC North division he will make a case for himself.  He’s set up to do it because he has the best WR on the planet in Calvin Johnson, finally has a legitimate complementary WR in Golden Tate and the draft brought him a nice weapon in TE Eric Ebron.  Reggie Bush and Joique Bell give him a nice RB tandem to count on and if new head coach Jim Caldwell can harness Stafford’s god given talent he can be as good as any QB in the league.

My Pick:  Peyton Manning

Like I’m dumb enough to go against him in this race.  Manning will throw for over 5000 yards and probably close to 50 TDs again and I have the Broncos winning the Super Bowl so I obviously believe he’s going to have a great year.

Offensive Player of the Year

I went into great detail last year about how Adrian Peterson could win this award instead of the MVP and then Manning made a joke of this voting.  I’m going Manning because not going with him is just crazy.  5000 yards and 50 TDs make voting moot.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders:  CB Richard Sherman, LB Luke Kuechly, DE JJ Watt, OLB Clay Matthews, CB Patrick Peterson, DE Robert Quinn, LB Vontaze Burfict

My Dark Horse Candidate: DE Chandler Jones

Another year and another possible Defensive Player of the Year candidate taken out by an early season suspension, last year it was my pick Von Miller and this year it’s returning sack leader Robert Mathis of the Colts.  Mathis was fantastic last season but he will serve a four game suspension so it will put him behind in the race.  Sherman is arguably the best CB in the league but he won’t get a lot of stats because with Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond gone no one will throw anywhere near him, okay maybe Colin Kaepernick because he just can’t help himself but no one else will.  Kuechly was phenomenal in the middle of Carolina’s defense last year and he earned last season’s Defensive Player of the Year award.  He racks up tackles left and right and that won’t stop but it’s a tough award to pull off twice in a row, he set the bar so high it will be tough to clear it.  Watt won it two years ago and with Jadeveon Clowney now bringing the heat from the other side maybe Watt puts up huge numbers again.  Clay Matthews can’t be counted out because he can be a menace and if he stays healthy and Julius Peppers or Nick Perry can give him a little help he could be big again.  DE Robert Quinn almost led the league in sacks and he has a very solid chance to do so this year except rookie DT Aaron Donald might steal some from him.  LB Vontaze Burfict has emerged as a star on the Bengals defense and he’s switching to weakside linebacker which means he may rack up even more tackles than before.  DE Chandler Jones was very good last year and he’s getting better all the time.  He did it with very little help from the interior of the Patriots defensive line due to injuries but if Vince Wilfork can come back healthy Jones could be a breakout candidate.

My Pick:  CB Patrick Peterson

The argument against Richard Sherman being the best CB in the NFL is Patrick Peterson.  Peterson should have more chances to make plays this year on defense because the Cardinals signed free agent Antonio Cromartie to play the opposite side.  Seattle’s defense got all the press last season and they earned it but Arizona’s defense was pretty good too.  Peterson is a superb athlete and he makes plays as a punt returner too so his profile should be high enough to possibly get recognition as Defensive Player of the Year.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: WR Sammy Watkins, RB Bishop Sankey WR Kelvin Benjamin, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Brandin Cooks, LT Jake Matthews

My Dark Horse Candidates: One of these backup RBs will take over the starting job at some point; Andre Williams (Giants), Terrence West (Browns), Carlos Hyde (49ers), Davonte Freeman (Falcons)

WRs Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin are immediately the top WR on their respective teams so that gives them a leg up.  RB Bishop Sankey is still listed behind veteran Shonn Greene but I can’t see that lasting because Sankey is a better all-around back.  Jordan Matthews has looked great in camp with the Eagles and they have a hole to fill with DeSean Jackson gone, in Chip Kelly’s offense with Nick Foles throwing to him Matthews should shine.  It would be pretty rare for an offensive tackle to win an award like this but Matthews is stepping into an important role on a team trying to turn itself around after last year’s debacle.  If he can keep Matt Ryan upright he will get some attention.  As for my dark horse candidates I think Williams has the best chance to just outright win the job from the veteran in front of him.  Rashad Jennings is an unknown commodity as a starting RB and while Williams gives the Giants virtually nothing in the passing game he is a fantastic runner.  West and Freeman have the best shots of taking over for an injured starter because there is basically no chance Ben Tate or Steven Jackson makes it through the year healthy.  Carlos Hyde has the most upside if he gets a chance because he’s a beast of a runner and the 49ers are a run heavy team.  However, Hyde is the least likely to get a chance because apparently Frank Gore is immortal.

My Pick:  WR Brandin Cooks

One of the most productive WR in college football ever Cooks is ready from day one to contribute and he happens to play with one of the best QB in the game, has a genius offensive mind for a head coach and fills a specific spot in the offense.  The only thing that could hold Cooks back is the fact that Drew Brees has weapons like Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham but that never seemed to bother Darren Sproles.  Cooks is more receiver while Sproles was more running back but Cooks has a similar skill set and can line up wherever Sean Payton wants to put him.  This is the award where I think one of my dark horse candidates has the best chance to break through and if Frank Gore goes down early in the season I’m changing my choice to Hyde.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders:  OLB Jadeveon Clowney, OLB Khalil Mack, S Calvin Pryor, LB CJ Mosley, LB Kyle Van Noy, CB Jason Verrett, DT Aaron Donald

My Dark Horse Candidate:  ILB Christian Kirksey

Clowney is the big name but he’s been dinged up and he’s transitioning to OLB which he hasn’t played before, it might be a slow start for him.  Pryor is going to be Rex Ryan’s new enforcer in the back end of his defense and he should rack up some nice tackle numbers.  He very well could give the Jets back-to-back Defensive Rookies of the Year but I think he’ll come up short.  Mosley is built for the Ravens defense but he might be overshadowed by fellow ILB Daryl Smith who was fantastic last year.  Kyle Van Noy is going to be fantastic in Detroit but he’s playing OLB in a 4-3 defense which won’t lead to huge stats.  Verrett is the best man-to-man cover guy in San Diego but he hasn’t quite broken through yet to be a starter so he’s starting from behind.  The same thing is going on with Aaron Donald as the Rams have Michael Brockers and Kendall Langford ahead of him on the depth chart but he’s going to create havoc and his sack numbers might be too good to overlook even as a sub.  You can call me a homer for picking the former Hawkeye as my dark horse but I said when he got drafted that Cleveland was a great landing spot for him.  He’s almost a lock to start at ILB next to Karlos Dansby and he’s been awesome in camp.  Kirksey is a tackling machine and he’s a fantastic coverage LB so he may actually put up some stats on a solid Cleveland defense and get some notice.

My Pick: OLB Khalil Mack

I went back and forth between Mack, Van Noy and Kirksey as my final choice and I picked Mack because I think he will make more big plays (i.e. sacks) than any other rookie.  Mack is a star waiting to happen and the only thing that will hold him back will be the lack of talent around him.  That never seemed to slow him down in college so I think he’ll make the adjustment.  His opposite OLB Sio Moore was injured and will be out and that almost made me reconsider my choice because that really puts a bulls-eye on Mack now.  Moore is a talented guy that was going to benefit from Mack’s presence but now the pressure to make plays is all on Mack.

 

Thoughts and Predictions

• I was asked what I thought of the Patriots trade of LG Logan Mankins to the Buccaneers for a fourth round pick and TE Tim Wright. I love what Mankins has been for the Pats but he wasn’t great last year and he got his Pro Bowl bid by reputation not performance. Wright is a TE in the Aaron Hernandez mold (minus the homicidal tendencies) and I like the idea of having Gronk and a TE like Wright working together again. Mankins is scheduled to make over $6 million as a guard and he has fallen off the last few years. I’m all for this trade…now if the Patriots would just find a damn WR that can go deep they would be set.
• I think the Buccaneers realize in about week 4 or 5 that Josh McCown has been a backup for a long time for a reason. I don’t know if Mike Glennon is the answer either and knowing Lovie Smith he will be too conservative to go away from McCown but perhaps offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford will convince him.
• The coaching carousel is always interesting and some coaches are obviously in more peril than others. Joe Philbin (Miami), Dennis Allen (Oakland) and Mike Smith (Atlanta) cannot afford bad seasons or they could get the quick hook. Philbin is on thin ice after last year’s bullying problems and not a lot of progress being made. Allen could be in trouble because he coaches the Raiders, they are terrible and they have no patience. Smith got a mulligan for last year because of the massive injuries but he hasn’t won as much as the team would like and another bad year would make it hard for the front office to not look elsewhere. Rex Ryan (NY Jets) and Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh) seem safe but their teams are treading water. Ryan is already on his third or fourth life in New York but the team has to show something and if the Geno Smith thing doesn’t work out it may be time for Rex to go. Mike Tomlin is a good coach and his team has had some turnover in the last few years so it’s not all his fault. While the Steelers organization is all about stability another mediocre year would have the natives restless. Gus Bradley (Jaguars) probably gets a reprieve since the Jags just drafted their QB of the future but still don’t plan to play him but if the defense (Bradley’s calling card) doesn’t show something the team may decide that their QB of the future needs an offensive minded head coach. Mike Pettine (Cleveland) makes my list simply because the Browns seem to like to change coaches every year and I’m not sure the team is going to have a stellar season. The two most interesting coaching jobs to watch are Jason Garrett (Dallas) and Tom Coughlin (NY Giants). Jerry Jones has given Garrett more chances than Rex Ryan has gotten but what he didn’t give him was a defense. If the Cowboys offense isn’t spectacular and the defense is as bad as they seem the team could go 2-14 and Jones is going to have to explain how he can seriously stick with Garrett. If the Giants are bad, and that’s a distinct possibility, Coughlin might call it a career. He has a Hall of Fame caliber resume and if it looks like the team needs a change he is more likely to walk away than to get fired. Here’s my bold prediction for coaching…Tom Coughlin retires at the end of the season and the new Giants head coach is Bill Cowher.
• My breakout players; some rookies, some just guys who get a chance to shine.On Defense: Patriots DE Chandler Jones, Raiders OLB Khalil Mack, Browns ILB Christian Kirksey, 49ers FS Eric Reid, Ravens FS Terrence Brooks (once he gets his chance).
• On Offense: Bengals RB Giovani Bernard, Giants RB Andre Williams, Packers WR Jarrett Boykin, Saints WR Brandin Cooks, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders, Cardinals RB Andre Ellington and the late addition to the group, new Patriots TE Tim Wright, he just went from Josh McCown as his QB to Tom Brady.
• I said in my Power Rankings that the NY Giants had the worst LB corps in the league but the Atlanta Falcons are trying hard to prove me wrong. The Falcon’s defense could make it a long year in Atlanta.
• I was going to predict that second round QB Derek Carr would be the first rookie QB to start a game this season and then the Raiders beat me to the punch and named him their opening day starter. Carr was considerably better than Matt Schaub in the preseason but I fear for Derek Carr’s health behind that Raider offensive line. Word of advice for Carr, get rid of the ball quickly and duck.
• So Carr is the first rookie QB to get to start this year but he won’t be the last. It’s just a matter of time before Manziel, Bortles and Bridgewater start. Manziel may be the first one in of those three and even though the Jags say they don’t plan to use Bortles I don’t believe them. Bridgewater is my favorite but he actually stands the least chance because Matt Cassel can run Norv Turner’s offense and Cassel actually can win games in Minnesota. Here are my predictions; Maziel starts week 5, right after the Browns bye week, Bortles starts week 7 vs. Cleveland (the battle of the rookie QBs) and Bridgewater takes over in week 14. By week 14 the Vikings will officially be out of the playoff hunt and it will be time to move on.
• Michael Sam was understandably cut from the St. Louis Rams on the final cut down day and they didn’t add him to the practice squad because of their depth at DE. He just signed on with the Dallas Cowboys practice squad and once he gets up to speed on their defense I think he will make the 53 man roster at some point. The Cowboys defense is terrible and they can use all the help they can get, smart move by Sam to go there after not getting signed to St. Louis’ practice squad. When you are a free agent looking to make a team sign with one that is weak at your position.
• Andy Dalton will win his first playoff game this year…hey it has to happen at some point right?
• Ryan Mallet will start more games for the Texans than Ryan Fitzpatrick. It shouldn’t take Mallet that much time to get up to speed on an offense similar to the one he ran in New England. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins will thank God a hundred times for a QB that can actually throw it to them more than 20 yards down the field.
• Last season I said WR Mike Wallace would disappoint after signing a huge contract with the Dolphins and he did to a large extent, he wasn’t completely abysmal but he wasn’t that good either. This year that guy is Jets WR Eric Decker, the difference this year is that it isn’t Decker’s fault. He’s a talented guy that just traded in Peyton Manning for Geno Smith and Decker isn’t really a #1 WR. He has virtually no help in the passing game so his stats will be way down, I don’t think he breaks 1000 yards receiving.
• Other disappointing players this year: Panthers QB Cam Newton-you can’t lose that much OL protection and WR production and not decline. Colts RB Trent Richardson-not a surprise at all but I think this will be the end of a short career for Richardson. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch-it’s a good thing the Seahawks have Christine Michael and Robert Turbin because Lynch has way too many miles on his legs, it’s going to bite them this year. Vikings WR Corderrelle Patterson-he was really good last year but for some reason I’m feeling a sophomore slump.
• There are two guys in make-or-break years for their careers and they are Titans QB Jake Locker and Saints RB Mark Ingram. If Locker can stay healthy I think Ken Whisenhunt is just the guy to turn him around. He has a solid offensive line and Nate Washington and Kendall Wright are good WRs. The thing that would help the most is if WR Justin Hunter can breakout this year, he’s supremely talented and just has to keep his head on straight. Ingram is going to get his best and final chance to prove he can carry the load. Pierre Thomas is going to be the third down guy and Ingram has had a nice preseason so this is it. I actually think he has a good year, not good enough to call him a breakout star but good enough to stick around.
• Last season I was in two fantasy leagues, I finished third in one and was horrible in the other. In five years when I say I’m going to be in two leagues again please remind me that I hate being in multiple leagues. Nothing sucks more than having Peyton Manning on your team and having to face him in the same week. Oh and I’m going to win my league this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The not quite contenders 

11. Kansas City Chiefs (2013 Record 11-5)

Oh what a difference a competent QB and a good head coach can have on a team.  Andy Reid brought in Alex Smith and Kansas City went from being the worst team in the league to making the playoffs.  Now we will see if Reid can keep this team in the playoffs with a reshuffled offensive line and not a lot of help offensively for RB Jamaal Charles.  The Chiefs lost 3 starting offensive linemen and now they are counting on second year man Eric Fisher to play LT.  He wasn’t overwhelming at RT last year but he may actually be more comfortable on the left side.  QB Alex Smith just got a new contract extension (the Chiefs overpaid) but he is hardly a star and this offense will still rely heavily on the legs of Jamaal Charles.  Dwayne Bowe is still the only real threat at WR and he wasn’t great last year either.  The Chiefs love the potential of TE Travis Kelce who missed last season with an injury.

The Chiefs defense is built around the pass rushing prowess of OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and the Chiefs decided to add to that group with first round pick Dee Ford.  They did suffer some defections in free agency and they cut starting CB Brandon Flowers late in the summer because he didn’t fit their scheme but the defense should be solid.  NT Dontari Poe was fantastic last season and set the tone up front while CB Sean Smith and S Eric Berry played well in the secondary.

The Chiefs aren’t as good as the Broncos in the AFC West but they are one of the better teams in the AFC so they should make the playoffs.  Andy Reid knows what he’s doing and if the pieced together offensive line can hold up the Chiefs should be fine.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (2013 Record 10-6)

First year head coach Chip Kelly took a 4-12 last place Eagles team to a 10-6 record and a division title, he turned Nick Foles into a franchise QB and then he invented sliced bread…um…that last part might not be true.  Still Kelly took the league by storm and proved his innovative offensive mind could translate to the NFL, imagine what he could do if the Eagles could play defense.  Kelly decided to add a level of difficulty to his second year and he jettisoned WR DeSean Jackson because all he did was have a career year.  The Eagles get WR Jeremy Maclin back from injury and they drafted Jordan Matthews who has looked very good in the preseason so the offense again won’t be a problem.  QB Nick Foles should be even more comfortable in Kelly’s offense in his second year and when in doubt he has one of the best running backs in football LeSean McCoy to hand off to.  TEs Zach Ertz and Brent Celek, WR Riley Cooper and new addition RB Darren Sproles give Foles plenty of other weapons also.

The Eagles defense has to thank the offense for winning so many games in spite of them.  The transition to a 3-4 defense is not going smoothly and many players are playing out of place.  OLB Trent Cole doesn’t look comfortable after moving back from DE and at 31 years old he probably isn’t going to get comfortable.  The Eagles reached in the first round of the draft to grab Louisville pass rusher Marcus Smith because he is comfortable playing in space and has natural athleticism for the job.  There are talented players on defense but Cole isn’t the only one playing an unnatural position.  NT Bennie Logan and DE Fletcher Cox would be better off in a 4-3 alignment playing next to each other in the middle.  CBs Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams never really found their groove last year so both of them should improve this season but Nolan Carroll was brought in to push them.  FS Malcolm Jenkins came over from New Orleans and he should be a nice upgrade.

A marginal improvement on defense would go a long way towards helping this team repeat as division champions but it may not even be needed.  The Eagles offense should easily outpace Washington, New York and Dallas in the NFC East.  One piece of advice if you’re a gambler, Eagles vs. Cowboys games I don’t care what the over/under is bet the over (my advice is given simply for comedic purposes and I will not be held responsible if you lose money because you are dumb enough to bet on sports).

9. Arizona Cardinals (2013 Record 10-6)

The combo of head coach Bruce Arians and QB Carson Palmer was as effective as I thought it would be.  Palmer’s downfield throwing was exactly what Arians offense needed and WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd give Palmer a nice set of guys on the outside.  They lost slot receiver Andre Roberts to free agency but rookie John Brown has been good in camp and should do well for them.  It wasn’t rookie Stepfan Taylor that stepped in for Rashard Mendenhall last year it was then rookie Andre Ellington and with Mendenhall’s offseason retirement Ellington will get the call this year.  He is a dynamic playmaker and he upgrades the running game.  Speaking of upgrades the Cardinals finally filled the gaping hole at LT in free agency with the addition of Jared Veldheer and that is the first legitimate LT the Cardinals have had in a long time.  The return of last year’s first round pick Jonathan Cooper to LG is another huge upgrade and the Cards may actually field a competent offensive line.

Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles did a fantastic job with this unit last year even though they were overlooked a bit because they play in the same division with Seattle and San Francisco.  His job got a lot tougher this offseason when he lost ILB Karlos Dansby to free agency, ILB Daryl Washington to a suspension and just recently lost DE Darnell Dockett to an injury.  There is still talent here especially in the secondary with CBs Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie flanking rookie Deone Buchanan and a healthy Tyrann Mathieu.  The Cardinals are hoping to squeeze one more year out of John Abraham at OLB because he provides the best pass rush on the team.

The Cardinals are a good football team that plays in the toughest division in football and also plays in the tougher conference when it comes to wild card spots in the playoffs.  They went 10-6 last year and missed the playoffs because of the strength of the conference.  Seattle and San Francisco haven’t gotten worse so the Cards have to beat up St. Louis and do some damage outside their division.

8. New Orleans Saints (2013 Record 11-5)

The Saints offense starts with Drew Brees and anytime you have a QB that has thrown for over 5000 yards three years in a row you’re off to a pretty solid start.  TE Jimmy Graham is one of the best playmakers in football and is a touchdown machine.  WR Marques Colston is Brees’ most trusted target and young WR Kenny Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks are budding playmakers.  The offensive line is pretty non-descript but Brees’ quick release has always made his line look better than they are.  The real question mark is at RB where Pierre Thomas is versatile but aging, Mark Ingram is maddeningly inconsistent and Darren Sproles was jettisoned in the offseason.  Cooks is expected to pick up some of the Sproles slack but the Saints really need Ingram to live up to his first round billing.

Rob Ryan proved last year that Rex isn’t the only Ryan brother that knows defense and that the Cowboys should deeply regret letting him go.  A Saints unit that was pretty awful before he got there was pretty good with him running things.  Ryan finally got the best out of DE Cameron Jordan and made him a very good defensive lineman. He also turned Junior Galette from a nobody into a sack master.  Free agent pickup Jairus Byrd should team with Kenny Vaccaro to make an excellent safety tandem.  Ryan’s schemes make the defense go and he’ll keep it up this year with a few new faces around.

The Saints finished just a game back of Carolina in the division last year and made the playoffs as a wild card team.  The Panthers look like they should take a step back and I think New Orleans will have to hold off the Bucs for the division this year.

7. Indianapolis Colts (2013 Record 11-5)

If you pay close attention to my Top 10 you will notice there is a theme and that theme is good teams have good QBs and Colts are no exception.  Andrew Luck willed this team to 11 wins last year with virtually no running game and two of his top targets out with injury (Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen).  The offensive line isn’t great by any means and yet Luck somehow threw for a ton of yards and has won 11 games in each of his first two years.  The Colts are hoping beyond hope that Trent Richardson will somehow live up to his lofty draft position especially after losing Vick Ballard to another season ending injury but I wouldn’t hold my breath.  Reggie Wayne is back but he’s 35 and coming off a knee injury. TY Hilton stepped up big after Wayne went out and the Colts are hoping to resurrect the career of Hakeem Nicks.  TE Coby Fleener played well after Allen went down and now with Allen back the Colts are hoping to use some two TE sets.

Robert Mathis was amazing after his transition from DE to OLB in the Colts new defense and he was right in the thick of the Defensive Player of the Year voting.  Unfortunately he’s going to miss the first 4 games of the year due to suspension so they will have to figure out how to get along without him.  The defense wasn’t very good overall and so they made a few key moves to try to better themselves.  ILB D’Qwell Jackson was signed from the Browns and DE Arthur Jones came over from Baltimore.  They held onto free agent CB Vontae Davis and he and Greg Toler make a solid duo.  They need this unit to be better but Luck makes it so they don’t have to be great to win games.

The Colts should again walk away with their division if only because they are the only team with a surefire solution at QB.   Tennessee is still trying to figure out if Jake Locker is the answer, the Jaguars don’t plan on finding out if Blake Bortles is the answer until next year and everyone except the Texans coaching staff knows that Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the answer in Houston.

The we are almost there pair.

6. Green Bay Packers (2013 Record 8-7-1)

The Packers didn’t make any major moves on offense in the offseason as they are just hoping for a healthy return of…well lots of people.  No one was hit harder by injury all over their roster like the Packers but it did give them a chance to find out that some new people can step in.  The loss of OT Bryan Bulaga along with some other OT injuries led to the Pack finding out that David Bakhtiari could actually handle LT which mean a healthy Bulaga can play the right side.  An injury to Aaron Rodgers is never a good thing but they found out that they can count on Eddie Lacy and he can carry the offense if needed.  Injuries all over the WR position led to them finding out the Jarrett Boykin might actually be able to hold his own which meant they let James Jones leave in free agency.  An offense run by a healthy Rodgers with Eddie Lacy and WRs like Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson is in good hand and is definitely better than eight wins.

They made one big name move on defense and that was the signing of DE Julius Peppers from the Bears.  Peppers is not the same guy he was in his prime and he won’t be playing the same type of position he did back then but Peppers brings legitimate pass rushing skills.  Just having to account for a guy like Peppers is more help than OLB Clay Matthews has had in the past few years.  The Packers still have hope that OLB Nick Perry can generate some heat off the edge but no one is holding their breath on that one.  Injury already struck this defense when NT BJ Raji went down with an arm injury for the year but otherwise this defense is pretty well intact.  They drafted S Haha Clinton-Dix to be the new free safety but they also converted CB Micah Hyde to the position and so far he is holding Clinton-Dix off in camp.  SS Morgan Burnett has been dinged up so Hyde and Clinton-Dix have been playing together and that’s the good news because that means when Burnett is healthy the Packers should have 3 legitimate safeties.

The Packers have the best combination of talent and coaching within their division and if they can stay healthy they shouldn’t have a problem repeating as division champs.  They will need some people to step up big though if they want to compete with Seattle and San Francisco as the class of the conference.  They do have one thing those two don’t have, Aaron Rodgers.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (2013 Record 11-5)

The Bengals have actually been good for the last several years and they have been that way because they have been steady and consistent with their player development and their coaching staff…ten years ago no one would have ever written that about this franchise.  They have been so good that they just lost both of their coordinators, not because they were fired but because they both got head coaching jobs.  QB Andy Dalton has been much maligned by fans and the media but the Bengals believe in him and they just signed him to a huge contract extension to prove it.  He’s been excellent in the regular season it has been his playoff performances that haven’t been great.  Elevating RB Giovani Bernard to starter over BenJarvus Green-Ellis should pay dividends because Bernard is a playmaker.  Rookie Jeremy Hill has replaced Green-Ellis as the short yardage back and Green-Ellis has been cut.  AJ Green is one of the best WRs in the league and he likes playing with Dalton.  Marvin Jones finally stepped up opposite Green to give Dalton another legitimate target.  TEs Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert make a nice combo and it’s up to new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to use them more effectively.  The Bengals have one of the best offensive lines in football and the way you can tell is that no one ever talks about them.

The Bengals defense has been very good for a while and when Marvin Lewis is your head coach and Mike Zimmer is your coordinator that isn’t surprising.  Zimmer finally got his shot at being a head coach in Minnesota and Paul Guenther steps in as his replacement.  The team shouldn’t miss a beat especially with the return of DT Geno Atkins from his injury.  Atkins is a dominant playmaker in the middle of the line and he sets up everything they do.  They lost DE Michael Johnson in free agency but his production was down last year so his shoes don’t look as big to fill.  LB Vontaze Burfict has proven all the doubters (and I was certainly one of them) wrong by being one of the best LBs in the league after not getting drafted a couple of years ago due to character concerns.  It’s nice to see someone not live down to the expectations of others and Burfict has put in the work and he’s a fantastic LB.  A training camp injury has set back rookie CB Darqueze Dennard so the Bengals will once again have to count on old man Terrence Newman and draft bust Dre Kirkpatrick opposite Leon Hall but the secondary will be fine and having Atkins up front causing havoc helps a lot.

The Bengals have the second longest tenured head coach in the league in Marvin Lewis behind only the New England Patriots Bill Belichick…I know I can’t believe that either.  Losing coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer isn’t great news but there is some hope that new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will help shake Dalton out of his poor playoff performance issues.

The Elite Division

4. New England Patriots (2013 Record 12-4)

Last season the Patriots offense was basically RB LeGarrette Blount and Tom Brady throwing it to Julian Edelman about 1000 times.  Blount left for Pittsburgh in the offseason so they are hoping for more from the rest of the skill position players.  TE Rob Gronkowski would be the first choice to be healthy and productive if Brady had a wish.  Gronkowski is a dynamic playmaker down the field and especially in the end zone and he’s a matchup nightmare.  RB Shane Vereen had a great first game last year after he replaced the fumble prone Stevan Ridley and the Patriots are hoping one of those two can be the man in the backfield.  If neither does they still have Brandon Bolden around and now they have rookie James White too.  The offensive line looks to be healthy and as long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick they will be one of the better teams in the league.

Other teams had more injuries on defense but the Patriots had some of the most important players on their defense get injured.  DTs Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly and MLB Jerod Mayo all missed significant time and that seriously weakened the team up the middle.  Wilfork and Mayo are the heart and soul of the defense and their return is huge.  The free agent signing of CB Darrelle Revis is important because of the loss of Aqib Talib and having Revis another year removed from his knee injury and with a chip on his shoulder bodes well for the Pats.  CB Brandon Browner is another significant signing but he will miss the first four games of the season due to a suspension.  DE Chandler Jones and LB Jaime Collins are young guys that stepped up big last year and they are the future building blocks of the defense.

Somehow with all the injuries on defense and the lack of playmakers on offense the Patriots still went 12-4, won their division by a landslide and made it to the AFC Championship game.  Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are the reasons and anyone that doubts those two guys does so at their peril.  As long as they are around the Patriots remain one of the elite teams in the league and are a threat no matter what.

3. San Francisco 49ers (2013 Record 12-4)

The 49ers rely heavily on the ground game and the legs of RB Frank Gore and while all evidence says that Gore shouldn’t be able to keep doing what he has done for so long he just keeps going.  The team isn’t crazy enough to think he will last forever so they wisely invested a draft pick in RB Carlos Hyde who very well could take over at a moment’s notice.  This become an even smarter move when backup Kendall Hunter was lost for the season to an injury and since Marcus Lattimore still isn’t ready to play after sitting out all of last season.  QB Colin Kaepernick needs to take the next step for this offense to make strides and this just may be the year.  WR Michael Crabtree missed most of last season but he’s back and pairing him with Anquan Boldin gives Kaepernick a nice set of WRs.  The trade for Stevie Johnson from the Bills and the drafting of Bruce Ellington also adds nice depth a position that didn’t have much.  TE Vernon Davis is the veteran presence and reliable target every QB needs and the 49ers have arguably the best offensive line in football.

The backbone of this team has been its defense and they are hoping their depth can make up for some injuries they have to overcome. Glenn Dorsey finally played well after coming over from Kansas City and settling in at nose tackle but he’s been lost for the season to an injury.  ILB Navarro Bowman was actually playing better than his more heralded teammate Patrick Willis before he tore up his knee late last year.  The 49ers are hoping young Quinton Dial can take over the NT job while rookie Chris Borland holds down the fort until Bowman is back.  OLB Aldon Smith’s season was a train wreck due to off-the-field issues and the team is hoping he can put that all behind him because they need his pass rushing skills.  SS Antoine Bethea should help out the coverage in the secondary as he teams with second year FS Eric Reid and the new starting CB tandem of Trumaine Brock and Chris Culliver.  DE Justin Smith is still the leader of the group but he isn’t getting any younger and the 49ers need some of the youngsters to step up.

The 49ers have the unenviable task of playing in the same division as the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks and that make them the best wild card team in football.  The rivalry between the two squads goes all the way up to the head coaches Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll and it’s a rivalry that drives both teams to strive for perfection.  San Francisco might be the best team in the NFC but they are going to have to take that title away from Seattle because the Seahawks aren’t just going to give it away.

2. Seattle Seahawks (2013 Record 13-3)

The NFL has become a pass happy league but the Seahawks proved that a great defense and a running game can still win championships.  RB Marshawn Lynch carries the load for the offense and QB Russell Wilson makes plays to keep things moving but the league will adjust which means the Seahawks must adjust too.  They didn’t make any major additions on offense with the exception of the return of a healthy Percy Harvin, they hope.  Harvin is a playmaker and he gives their offense a dimension it otherwise doesn’t have but he just can’t stay on the field and it’s hard to trust a guy like that.  Guys like Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are nice and they are hoping to get some playmaking out of rookies Kevin Norwood and Paul Richardson but none of them are on Harvin’s level.  The Seahawks have built a solid stable of RBs behind Lynch with Christine Michael and Robert Turbin.  They drafted Justin Britt out of Missouri and are hoping he can take over the RT job but that may prove to be a risky choice.  They signed Eric Winston as insurance but then they cut him during final cut downs, he could be an insurance policy signing after week 1 when veteran contracts are no longer guaranteed.

The Seahawks defense was on a different level last year and it would be hard to replicate that under the best circumstances and these aren’t the best circumstances.  There is plenty of talent still around like CB Richard Sherman, DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril and Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas.  The problem the Seahawks face is with the depth they lost in free agency, DEs Chris Clemons and Red Bryant left for Jacksonville, CB Brandon Browner went to New England and nickel corner Walter Thurmond headed to the Giants and those losses will be felt.  As dominate as the Seahawks were, especially in the Super Bowl, it is almost impossible

to replicate that type of play again.

The Seahawks are likely to take a step back from where they were last year so it’s lucky for them they were a step ahead of everyone else.  They play in the toughest division in football and their arch rival is also their biggest threat in the San Francisco 49ers.  As any champion will tell you it is harder to hold on to the title than it is to win it the first time.

1. Denver Broncos (2013 Record 13-3)

Yes I watched the Super Bowl and yes I know the Seahawks destroyed the Broncos but that was last year’s team and this is this year’s team.  The Broncos were missing some key personnel that not a lot of people talked about.  They were obviously missing Von Miller but there was one other huge missing piece that didn’t get talked about that would have made a difference, LT Ryan Clady.  Clady is a top notch LT and he missed last year with an injury, Chris Clark filled in admirably but he isn’t on Clady’s level especially at LT.  This year with Clady back Clark has flipped over to the right side where he is a better fit and that pushed Orlando Franklin inside to LG.  Clady’s return has improved 3 spots on the offensive line and that will make the Broncos offense better against strong defensive fronts like the Seahawks.  WR Emmanuel Sanders was signed after Eric Decker left meaning Manning’s offensive weapons will be just as potent and with Montee Ball taking the reins at RB they should be fine there.

The Broncos defense got some nice upgrades in free agency and just in returning healthy players.  Von Miller is a star when he can stay off suspension and keep himself healthy and he will have some help this year.  DeMarcus Ware was jettisoned by the Cowboys because the Cowboys don’t want good defensive players (okay it may have had more to do with money) and while Ware is no spring chicken he can still get it done.  Ware and Miller are going to be a scary pass rushing duo.  CB Aqib Talib had a fantastic year for the Patriots and he’ll be a huge upgrade over what was left of Champ Bailey last season. Bailey is a future Hall of Famer but he was a shell of his former self last year.  The healthy returns of CB Chris Harris and FS Rahim Moore are being overlooked because both of them upgrade the secondary.  SS TJ Ward was the other major free agent signing and he will bring a physical presence to the back end that the Broncos haven’t had in a while.

A team with a healthy Peyton Manning is always a contender for the Super Bowl and while I didn’t talk much about the reigning MVP it is because we all know how great he is.  Manning will get another shot at a Super Bowl trophy before he walks away one day and it very well could come this year.  This team is built to contend and bringing in great players like Ware, Ward and Talib help and getting back Manning’s personal security guard Ryan Clady will be bigger than anyone realizes.

 

The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night and tomorrow you’ll get my Thoughts and Predictions for the upcoming season.

We Might be better, we hope we aren’t worse.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers (2013 Record 8-8)

The Steelers have been treading water for the past couple of seasons and it seems to be where they are again except their players are now a year older, that’s okay for guys like Antonio Brown or Jarvis Jones but not so great for Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu.  Back-to-back 8-8 seasons are going to make the natives restless and while the Steelers organization isn’t prone to kneejerk reactions if Mike Tomlin’s squad can’t make some progress this year they could look to make a change on the sidelines.  Roethlisberger is a good QB but he’s 32 years old and his offensive line isn’t stellar.  The recent marijuana bust of RBs Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount doesn’t inspire confidence and while Antonio Brown has been really good at WR the last couple of years losing Emmanuel Sanders in free agency is going to put some pressure on Markus Wheaton to step up this season.

The defense is finally starting to get some youth with the rise of OLB Jarvis Jones and DE Cameron Heyward and the drafting of ILB Ryan Shazier.  LBs Jason Worilds and Lawrence Timmons are in the prime of their careers but SS Troy Polamalu, CB Ike Taylor and CB William Gay are past theirs.  Free agent signings of DL Cam Thomas and Mike Mitchell replaced older players with younger ones but they aren’t exactly an upgrade.  When you combine youth and age and a few average players you get exactly what the Steelers have been and that is a team that can only hope to be in the middle of the pack.

The Steelers seem to be stuck in limbo right now as they aren’t quite bad enough to start a complete rebuild especially when you have a QB that has won as much as Roethlisberger has but they are just not quite good enough to make the playoffs.  If their offensive line fails again and their age on defense shows through this team could bottom out pretty badly.  Big Ben can will them to a few victories they probably shouldn’t get but if they lose Bell and Blount to suspensions it could seriously damage them for a stretch and make this one ugly season.

18. Miami Dolphins (2013 Record 8-8)

From 2011 to 2013 the Dolphins went 6-10, 7-9, and 8-8 which might look like progress but it really wasn’t.  Last year was completely overshadowed by the bullying scandal that took place with the offensive line and the only silver lining out of it was that the Dolphins were forced to replace what was a terrible offensive line.  Free agent LT Brandon Albert finally made the move down from Kansas City while the Dolphins reached in the draft for new RT Ja’Wuan James.  The guard situation is up in the air which means C Mike Pouncey is the only guy coming back and starting where he was last season and even he is expected to be out at the beginning of the year.  Usually that much change is a concern but in this case it is a blessing for QB Ryan Tannehill.  RB Lamar Miller has looked solid in camp which is good because free agent signee Knowshon Moreno has reverted to his injury form.  TE Charles Clay played well last year while WR Brian Hartline was his steady self but Tannehill needs Mike Wallace to become the consistent deep threat the Dolphins are paying him to be if the offense is going to be a threat.

The Dolphins defense seems to be less than the sum of its parts.  The front four should be good after the breakout year of DE Olivier Vernon and the fact that Cameron Wake is still a threat.  DTs Randy Starks, Jared Odrick and free agent Earl Mitchell should make the middle very strong.  CB Brent Grimes was great last year and the Dolphins are hoping Cortland Finnegan can rediscover the player he was in Tennessee.  Free agent Louis Delmas would be a nice upgrade at safety if he can stay healthy which is something he has struggled to do throughout his career.  The biggest issue for the defense is with the linebacking corps which has three underachieving players.  The coaches are trying flip-flopping them all around to find where they fit best but unless Koa Misi, Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler all play considerably better the defense is going to suffer.

Head coach Joe Philbin needs this team to show major progress or the team may decide to go in a different direction.  They should be better than the Jets and at least as good as the Bills in the division but they still don’t look like a threat to the Patriots and they will struggle to make the playoffs again.  They are a team that could surprise but it just doesn’t seem like they are there yet.

17. Buffalo Bills (2013 Record 6-10)

This Bills team is going to try to change their story from “what is happening with the new ownership?” and “are they going to be moving?” to “can they fight for a playoff spot?”  The addition of WR Sammy Watkins in the draft was a bold move and it was made with the intent of giving EJ Manuel a fair chance at proving he is the franchise QB they have been missing since Jim Kelly retired.  RBs CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown give the offense a legitimate ground game while Watkins teams up with Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and TE Scott Chandler to give Manuel some options in the passing game.  Draftees Cyrus Kouandjio, Cyril Richardson and Seantrel Henderson give the Bills some new options that should improve the offensive line.

The Bills defense has to replace coordinator Mike Pettine the new Cleveland Browns head coach and he did a magnificent job last season with this unit.  They were able to actually turn DE Jerry Hughes into a good player something he had failed to do in the previous years in Indianapolis.  Hughes made for a nice bookend pass rusher for Mario Williams and DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams were pretty good too.  The biggest loss will be injured LB Kiko Alonso who was great last year but is out for the season.  The Bills needed help stopping the run and they signed Patriots castoff Brandon Spikes, who excels at stopping the run and they were hoping he could man the middle so they could move Alonso outside.  Now they will have Spikes flanked by Nigel Bradham and Keith Rivers so they certainly won’t be as good.  CBs Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin and safeties Da’Norris Searcy and Aaron Williams should prove to be a solid secondary.

While the Bills defense will miss Alonso they should still be pretty good so it is up to the offense to make strides.  A healthy EJ Manuel would go a long way towards making the offense more effective and that may come down to the play on the o-line keeping him upright.  The Bills won’t catch the Patriots but they should finish second in the division and could nab the last playoff spot in the AFC.

16. San Diego Chargers (2013 Record 9-7)

The Chargers snagged the last playoff spot in the AFC last season and that was a bit of a surprise.  QB Phillip Rivers had a good year and luckily for him the team made an excellent draft pick in 2013 with WR Keenan Allen.  Allen had dropped in the draft due to an underwhelming college season and an injury that prevented him from getting in workouts.  Injuries were a problem at WR for the Chargers and Allen stepped up and now he’s the go-to guy for Rivers.  RB Ryan Mathews finally played well after disappointing time and time again.  The offensive line is still underwhelming but they weren’t terrible which was a step up.  TE Antonio Gates was still productive but it’s youngster Ladarius Green that has people excited and he should be a weapon this year for Rivers.

The Chargers defense isn’t going to be confused for the Seahawks defense but they have some good players.  DEs Corey Luiget and Kendall Reyes, LBs Donald Butler and Jarrett Johnson and S Eric Weddle are all pretty good but they need some people to step up and be dynamic.  Returning from injury is OLB Melvin Ingram and they could really use his pass rushing skills because Dwight Freeney isn’t getting any younger, another young guy that could add a lot to this defense in rookie CB Jason Verrett.  Verrett is undersized but he has great cover skills and that is in short supply in the Chargers secondary.

Denver and Kansas City were the class of the AFC West last season and that probably isn’t going to change this year.  The Chargers were the best of a mediocre middle class in the AFC last year and they made the playoffs it may not be easy but they could do it again.  Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami and Buffalo all look like solid competition for the last playoff spot in the conference so we will see if the Chargers can pull it off again.

 

We are on our way, we hope.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013 Record 4-12)

My choice for the biggest turnaround this season is definitely the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The nightmare of the back-to-back tenures of head coaches Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano is finally over and has been replaced by the steady hand of Lovie Smith.  Smith was a beloved assistant under Tony Dungy and brings an NFL credibility that was lacking with the last two men.  The Bucs were easily the busiest team in free agency bringing in LT Anthony Collins, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, TE Brandon Myers, and QB Josh McCown on offense.  Collins, Dietrich-Smith and Myers certainly upgrade their positions while McCown brings a steady veteran in at QB.  Rookie WR Mike Evans should pair with Vincent Jackson to give McCown some nice weapons in the passing game.  Much of the success of the Bucs depends on if McCown can bring the magic with him that he showed in his short stint as the Bears starter last season as opposed to being the career backup he has been in the past.  The healthy return of RB Doug Martin would go a long way towards helping McCown also.

The offense wasn’t the only place the Bucs added quality starters in free agency.  DE Michael Johnson came down from Cincinnati to replace the underwhelming Da’Quan Bowers and CB Alterraun Verner came in to replace the departed Darrell Revis. DT Gerald McCoy proved to be one the best DTs in the league and the LB corps is solid with Lavonte David and Mason Foster leading the way.  If Lovie Smith can get the best out of DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Akeem Spence and second year CB Jonathan Banks the Buccaneers could have an excellent defense.

Arguably the biggest additions to this team are on the coaching staff.  Not only does Lovie Smith bring much more credibility than his predecessors but his staff has some great coaches.  Offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford was a long-time head coach at Cal and tutored some great QB’s, Aaron Rodgers being his shining star example.  Smith’s biggest issue when he was head coach of the Bears was always the offense but as long as he lets Tedford have the keys he shouldn’t have that problem anymore.  Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was the head man in Minnesota and has a great reputation on the defensive side and his philosophy meshes well with Smith’s.  TE coach Jon Embree, LB coach Hardy Nickerson and OL coach George Warhop are other examples of great quality coaches this team will benefit from.  The NFC South has a history of teams going from worst to first and it’s a distinct possibility that either the Bucs or the Falcons (both of whom finished 4-12 last year) could do that this season.

14. Detroit Lions (2013 Record 7-9)

While I’m a fan of Jim Caldwell the person and Jim Caldwell the offensive coordinator/QB coach he was an underwhelming choice as the new head coach.  I will give the Lions credit that they finally figured out that they need someone to harness QB Matthew Stafford’s considerable gifts if they are ever going to break out of their middling state.  The skill position talent around Stafford is very good with RBs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, TEs Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria and of course the dominate WR Calvin Johnson now has a solid running mate in Golden Tate.  Stafford has to eliminate the mistakes he makes that kill the offensive momentum that is what the new offensive minded staff is going to concentrate on.

The defense has plenty to work on but there is potential there.  DT Ndamukong Suh has a bad reputation as a dirty player but he’s pretty good.  DE Ezekiel Ansah brings pass rushing potential and the rest of the defensive line holds their own.  Rookie LB Kyle Van Noy was a fantastic selection and he will be big in terms of turning around a very average LB group.  The secondary has been a weakness for quite some time and even though CB Rashean Mathis held his own last year he is 33 years old and has a suspect injury history.  CB Darius Slay is okay but he shouldn’t be anyone’s top CB.  The defense needs to be more than the sum of its individual parts.

If the Lions defense can be a middle-of-the-pack group and Caldwell can up Stafford’s game the Lions could make some noise.  Everyone assumes that an injury free Green Bay team and the Bears will duke it out for the top of the division but the Lions have as much talent as anyone and they will make their presence felt.

13. Baltimore Ravens (2013 Record 8-8)

GM Ozzie Newsome knows this team is built to compete right now as they have many players in the primes of their careers not the least of which is franchise QB Joe Flacco.  Newsome doesn’t venture into the veteran free agent market that much as he has built most of this team through the draft but he went out and signed savvy veteran WR Steve Smith.  He’s hoping having Steve Smith paired with WR Torey Smith and the addition of a healthy Dennis Pitta at TE will be enough to get the offense humming again.  RB Ray Rice fell off a cliff last year in terms of production and his two game suspension for domestic abuse (don’t get me started on that one) isn’t going to get him off to a great start.  The Ravens hope the return of Bernard Pierce and the addition of rookie RB Lorenzo Taliaferro will reshape their running game.  The offensive line is solid after the in-season addition and subsequent re-signing of LT Eugene Monroe and the offseason trade for C Jeremy Zuttah but RT is still a question after letting the inconsistent Michael Oher leave in free agency without doing anything of consequence to help the position.

The hallmark of both Ravens Super Bowl winning squads was their defense and both times it was led by Ray Lewis.  Well Lewis is on TV now and LB Daryl Smith took over very capably last season and had one of the better years of his career.  They return a lot of talent in guys like DL Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, CB Ladarius Webb and S Matt Elam but it is the additions that could make a difference.  Rookie LB CJ Mosley is built for this defense and FS Terrence Brooks, while not a high draft pick, is good enough to come in and allow the Ravens to shift Elam to his more natural SS spot.  The pass rush should come from Suggs along with Elvis Dumervil and hopefully Courtney Upshaw.

A year after a Super Bowl title the Ravens went .500 and missed the playoffs in a weak AFC.  The good news is that the Ravens should be better than the Steelers and the Browns still aren’t a threat, the bad news is the Bengals have passed the Ravens as the class of the division and that probably won’t change this year.  Newsome drafts better than anyone in the league year after year and this team has better talent than an 8-8 squad.  John Harbaugh won a Super Bowl two years ago but he better get it together or he will learn that NFL stands for Not For Long.

12. Chicago Bears (2013 Record 8-8)

The Bears offense played pretty well last year with Jay Cutler at QB and some would say even better with Josh McCown under center.  Head coach Marc Trestman found that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery made for a large and spectacular pair at WR and he took advantage.  Martellus Bennett was solid at TE and Matt Forte is excellent at RB.  The one thing they finally addressed was their shotty offensive line.  LT Jermon Bushrod will never be mistaken for Orlando Pace but he held his own and rookies Jordan Mills and Kyle Long held down the right side of the line very well.

The Bears biggest problem on defense is that they have gotten old and their drafting on that side of the ball hasn’t done a great job of replacing the aging players.  They have brought in guys like Jay Ratliff and Jared Allen but that’s not helping the situation.  LB Lance Briggs and CB Charles Tillman are a year older and they are still going to be counted on and that could be a problem.  They hope that free agent additions Lamaar Houston and Willie Young and draft picks Will Sutton and Ego Ferguson can replenish their defensive line talent.  Shea McClellin hasn’t done much since he was drafted and now they are trying to make him a full-time OLB instead of a pass rushing DE.  The safety situation was a disaster last season and the Bears are hoping rookie Brock Vereen and free agent Ryan Mundy can rectify the situation, they can’t be any worse.

The Bears finished just behind the Packers last season in the NFC North a division that was pretty bad considering the Packers won it with an 8-7-1 record.  The Packers should be much better given their return to health and the Bears are going to have to hold off the Lions for second place.  If age catches up to their defense or if Jay Cutler stumbles it could go horribly wrong for Chicago but I think Cutler will be fine and the defense should hold on for another year.