2015 Draft Edge Pass Rushers DE/OLB Rankings

The line between defensive ends and pass rushing outside linebackers is as blurry as ever and whether a player ends up as a standup linebacker or a hand on the ground defensive end depends on his skillset and the team he plays on.  The other type of defensive end is the 3-4 defense kind like JJ Watt otherwise known as the five-technique and there are few of those in this draft too.  The edge pass rusher might be the deepest position in this entire draft and there will be top quality well into the second round and probably into the third and possibly fourth round.  Pass rushers are always at a premium and this year’s group could have some special players and while there is much versatility in many of these prospects they usually fit one position better than the other.  I would list out the teams that need a pass rusher but every team needs pass rushers.

1. Randy Gregory   Sr.   Nebraska   DE

Gregory’s best position would probably be as a DE in a 4-3 defense but he’s athletic enough to line up at OLB if a team like the Titans takes him.  He is a natural pass rusher and he would need work on the other aspects of the LB position but he is likely a top 3 pick and someone is going to get instant help getting after the QB.  At 6’6 245 lbs. Gregory isn’t the stoutest DE prospect and he needs to add some weight in order to hold up to the rigors of the NFL but he has the frame to do so.

2. Dante Fowler   Jr.   Florida   OLB

Fowler might be the most versatile of all of these pass rushers as he could be a DE, an OLB or slide inside to DT on passing downs.  At 6’2 261 lbs. Fowler is a different breed than most as he isn’t a long lean speed rusher he is more the short squatty power player with multiple moves.  He doesn’t really look the part but he has good pass rushing instincts and can play from anywhere on the field.  Fowler is relentless and never gives up on a play.

3. Shane Ray   Jr.   Missouri   OLB

A year ago no one knew the name Shane Ray as he sat behind Michael Sam and Kony Ealy for the Tigers.  I’m always a little leery of one year wonders but he was blocked by two very good football players so it’s understandable.  Ray lined up at DE but he’s built more like an OLB and I think he could transition to that position pretty well.  He’s 6’3 245 lbs. so even though he is a bit light I think he could hold his own at DE given his speed and athleticism.  Ray is just scratching the surface of his talent and he could be one of the better pass rushers from this draft when it’s all said and done.

4. Vic Beasley   Sr.   Clemson   OLB

Listing Beasley as an OLB is simply a product of his size at 6’2 235 lbs.  He is the best pure pass rusher in the draft from either position and he could be used as a DE in a 4-3.  As a DE his size might seem like a detriment but when he gets on the field he just makes plays.  He reminds me of Elvis Dumervil simply because he has a remarkable first step and seems unblockable at times.

5. Alvin “Bud” Dupree   Sr.   Kentucky   DE

At 6’4 267 lbs. Dupree actually fits the traditional 4-3 DE position mold better than the guys above yet he actually possesses some skills that fit the OLB position.  He isn’t bad dropping into coverage and his footwork is pretty solid.  He has good moves and great burst as a pass rusher but he isn’t great when an offensive lineman gets his hands on him.  He needs to work on disengaging from blockers but he’s a first round lock in this draft.

6. Arik Armstead   Jr.   Oregon   DE

Every 3-4 defensive team is looking for the next JJ Watt and while it is unlikely to find another one of him Armstead certainly looks the part.  At 6’7 296 lbs. Armstead is big, physical and athletic and he’s the prototypical five-technique DE.  Watt is the exception to the rule that 3-4 DEs don’t rush the passer very much and Armstead has some pass rushing skills he can use.  He can also set the edge and hold his spot.  It’s unlikely he would play 4-3 DE but with the number of teams running a 3-4 defense seemingly increasing every year he probably won’t have to worry about that.

7. Owamagbe Odighizuwa   Sr.   UCLA   DE

I’m glad this is a blog and not a podcast because I can look up how to spell this guy’s name and I don’t have to pronounce it.  Odighizuwa is a power DE end with a muscular frame at 6’4 266 lbs.  He doesn’t have the size of Armstead but he can be a five-technique DE if need be because of his sheer strength.  He is more of a base DE than a pure pass rusher but from time to time he can get to the QB.  UCLA played a multiple front defense so Odighizuwa has experience in many positions.  He missed the 2013 season because of hip surgery so his combine medical check will be big for him.

8. Danielle Hunter   Jr.   LSU   DE

Hunter is tall and lean but he is stronger than he looks.  He has the frame to really fill out as he gets older and he has long arms which makes him a hazard in the passing lanes.  Unfortunately he isn’t a great natural pass rusher and once he fills out his frame he might be better suited as a base end or a five-technique player.  Hunter looks the part he just doesn’t possess the natural skills but he is still young and with some good coaching he could be a good player in a few years.

9. Eli Harold   Jr.  Virginia   DE

Harold plays the game like his hair is on fire and that’s both a good thing and a bad thing.  It’s good because he is relentless rushing the passer but it’s bad because he sometimes gets out of control and plays undisciplined.  He has a quick first step and great up field burst and that helps him against strong offensive linemen regardless of the fact that Harold isn’t a very big DE.  His size looks like an OLB at 6’4 235 lbs. but his skillset is built for the DE position.

10. Nate Orchard   Sr.   Utah   DE

Orchard played DE and OLB in college rushing the passer from both spots but his future is at DE.  He went to the Senior Bowl and played well at DE while not looking at all comfortable at OLB.  Orchard has natural pass rushing instincts which make up for his lack of elite speed and strength.  He doesn’t have very good hand usage and he has virtually no bull rush to speak of because he just doesn’t have the power.  He will be a useful pass rusher who needs a NFL strength program to get him where he needs to be physically.

I said this draft class was deep and I wasn’t kidding.  Outside of the top 10 I’ve listed above there are at least seven other DE/OLB pass rushers that could go in the first two rounds and should certainly be off the board before the end of the third. 

OLB Hau’oli Kikaha (Washington) – Relentless speed rusher.  Intelligent, versatile player.

OLB Lorenzo Mauldin (Louisville) – Won’t go as high as his teammate from last year’s draft surprise 1^st rounder Marcus Smith (Eagles) but I think he could be a better player.

DE Markus Golden (Missouri) – The other defensive end from Mizzou is shorter and more compact than Ray but he will find a place because of his overall skills and versatility.

DE Mario Edwards (Florida St.) – A base DE or a five-technique player Edwards is a powerful player that isn’t an elite pass rusher but he’s exactly what a lot of teams need.

OLB Kwon Alexander (LSU) – Doesn’t have the frame his teammate Hunter has at 6’2 227 lbs. but he can get to the QB and play LB more naturally.

DE Trey Flowers (Arkansas) – 6’2 268 lbs. is a short and squatty DE but Flowers brings strength and an ability to collapse the pocket.

DE Preston Smith (Mississippi St.) – A big DE who could play as a rush end, a base end or grow into a five-technique and bring something to each one of those potential positions.

2015 Draft Linebacker Prospect Rankings (Non pass rushing group)

After combining the pass rushing LBs with the DE position and just calling them edge rushers I’m not left with a lot of LB prospects to go over so I’m combining them as most are versatile enough to either play outside or middle in a 4-3 defense or inside in a 3-4 defense.  Some could rush the passer and one very special one could even be a strong safety.  It’s a short but talented list.

1. Shaq Thompson   Jr.   Washington

Thompson is the single most versatile player in the entire draft because he could be strongside LB in a 4-3, he could be a weakside LB in a 4-3, he might be able to play middle LB in a 4-3, he could certainly play inside LB in 3-4, NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock has Thompson rated as the second best safety in the draft and if all else fails his NFL team could do what they did at Washington and play him at running back.  Thompson is a special athlete who has yet to focus on one position and once he does he’s going to be electric.  I think he ends up playing on the outside for a 4-3 team but he might end up being a Kam Chancellor type SS for someone and he could probably make the Pro Bowl.  He is everything you want in a defender and depending on which team gets him he will probably be my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year.  Every team that passes on him is going to regret it.

2. Benardrick McKinney   Jr.   Mississippi St.

McKinney was that guy in on every defensive play Mississippi St. made during their fantastic year.  He’s tall and a little lanky at 6’4 249 lbs. but he makes it work.  He isn’t a smooth athlete and he’s probably best suited at ILB in a 3-4 where his athletic deficiencies can be somewhat covered up.  McKinney has some scheme versatility but he isn’t going to be playing free safety or tailback.  He always seems to be in the action and he’s a solid tackler.

3. Eric Kendricks   Sr.   UCLA

Kendricks will end up at either ILB or MLB for whoever is lucky enough to draft him.  He has versatility because UCLA plays multiple front defenses and Kendricks has been in that defense for quite some time.  He could end up at weakside LB because of his lack of size at just 6’0 230 lbs. and his sideline-to-sideline chase ability would work there but I think he can add some good weight and play in the middle.  He’s a good tackler and there are not enough of those in the NFL these days.

4. Paul Dawson   Sr.   TCU

At 6’2 230 lbs. Dawson is long and lean and he isn’t stout enough to play on the inside but he’s an aggressive downhill player on the outside of a 4-3 defense.  Dawson is slippery and that’s what makes him so hard to block and why he can so easily get into an opponent’s backfield and disrupt an offense.  Even when blockers get their hands on him he is very good at disengaging even though he doesn’t use power to do so.  There is a report that Dawson has “character issues” but there doesn’t seem to be much to that report other than innuendo and teams will have a chance to interview him at the combine.  Until there is confirmation of actual incidents I’m not willing to downgrade him.

5. Denzel Perryman   Sr.   Miami

Perryman is the old school thumper that most teams have gone away from in recent years but with the proliferation of power running backs in the NFL every team should have one like him.  At 5’11 244 lbs. he’s built like a fire hydrant and he is a two-down MLB and special team’s player only.  He plays with a toughness that you want out of a MLB when he’s facing down Marshawn Lynch or Eddie Lacy but he has no business on the field during passing down.  Perryman is a leader and a grinder and while he lacks versatility and is a bit of a one-trick pony he’s exceptionally skilled at that one trick.

2015 Draft Cornerback Prospect Rankings

Great CBs are at a premium in the NFL and every team is trying to find the next great one.  This year could be a huge disappointment.  There are some solid prospects but two of the best were waylaid by serious character questions and a late season injury.  There is some nice raw talent and a number of players from smaller schools that could make a move during the combine or individual workouts.  The only consensus I can see amongst the scouting world is that there is no consensus past Trae Waynes being the top player.  Oh and that consensus is built around the fact that he’s not the headache Marcus Peters might be.

1. Trae Waynes   Jr.   Michigan St.

Waynes former Spartan teammate Darqueze Dennard was the third CB taken in last year’s draft at #24 overall and this year Waynes may be the first CB taken but it might not be much higher than 24^th overall.  Waynes isn’t an elite prospect that we are used to seeing go in the top 10 of the draft.  He has good size at 6’1 but he likes to put his hands on WRs too much and in the NFL he’ll get flagged for it even more than he did in college.  He matches up better with taller WRs because he doesn’t flip his hips well enough to keep up with smaller shiftier WRs.  Waynes has a lot to work with in terms of raw ability but he isn’t stepping into a starring role for any defense.

2. Marcus Peters   Jr.   Washington

On talent alone Peters is the top CB in this draft and probably a top 12 pick so the fact that he might last until the last 8-10 picks of the first round should tell you something about the character questions.  When you are an immense talent like Peters and your coach kicks you off the team in the middle of the season alarms sound all around the NFL.  He was suspended for a game for an outburst during a game and eventually booted for multiple run-ins with the coaching staff, he isn’t what you would describe as coachable.  It’s too bad because his raw skills are excellent and he can flip his hips and run as well as anyone.  He has prototypical CB size and with good coaching he could be one of the best in the NFL.  Peters is immature and hotheaded and if someone can get his emotional state in order he’s the best CB in this draft.

3. PJ Williams   Jr.   Florida St.

Williams is a fantastic deep cover corner with the ability to turn and run and keep up with anyone.  He has great instincts and anticipation on deep throws and seems to rise to the occasion when put on the spot.  Williams sometimes focuses too much on the deep throw and gets beat by the comeback or back shoulder throw and he isn’t as good covering short routes or in zone coverage.  He’s a fantastic athlete who should just get better with time.

4. Quinten Rollins   Sr.   Miami (OH)

The rawest prospect with enormous upside Rollins played basketball for four years at Miami (OH) and then decided to play football and he was very good.  He has great foot speed and ability to change directions from his years on the hardwood.  Despite his inexperience he seems to play the game very physically and is one of the better CBs at supporting the run and actually tackling.  He likes to look for the big play and gambles sometimes and his lack of technique and experience leaves him open to double moves so he can be beat.  His upside is incredible and while he probably doesn’t step in as a starter right away a good secondary coach could turn him into a top CB in a few years.

5. Jalen Collins   Jr.   LSU

Collins is a raw prospect with great height and athleticism and he has the size to matchup with bigger WRs.  He struggles with smaller quicker WRs and he probably isn’t going to want anyone to watch his tape against Alabama’s Amari Cooper.  He’s willing to get physical in run support but isn’t as physical at the line when jamming a WR.  He plays too tall and he doesn’t sink his hips well enough when backpedaling but that’s a teachable trait.  Collins needs some time but he has the tools to be a good CB.

The Injury Exception – Ifo Ekpre-Olomu   Sr.   Oregon

Ekpre-Olomu was one of the best CBs in college football the last two seasons and then he tore up his knee during practice before the Rose Bowl.  If he was healthy he would probably be 3^rd on this list but he is most likely going to miss the 2015 season because of his rehab.  The medical testing done at the combine and in individual team visits will be crucial to Ekpre-Olomu’s draft stock.  If it is just an ACL tear that isn’t devastating news given the advancements in rehabbing that particular injury but if it’s more severe that will hurt.  If he has to take a “redshirt” year in 2015 that’s not ideal but he’s still worth having for down the road.  He is arguably the best all-around CB in this draft and even though he doesn’t have ideal size he has never let that hinder him in any way.

There are a couple of other players from schools outside the Power 5 conferences to go along with Quentin Rollins that could be very solid prospects; Jacoby Glenn (Central Florida) and DJoun Smith (Florida Atlantic).  There are two prospects from Power 5 schools but not traditionally strong football schools; Steven Nelson (Oregon St.) and Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest).  Finally there are five guys from major football schools that are solid prospects but they probably aren’t difference makers right away; Alex Carter (Stanford), Kevin White (TCU), Ronald Darby (Florida St.), Josh Shaw (USC) and Senquez Golson (Ole Miss).

2015 Draft Safety Prospect

1. Landon Collins   Jr.   Alabama

There is only one safety prospect of note at this point and it is Collins.  Shaq Thompson might be a safety but I see him as a LB and Cody Prewitt of Mississippi and Anthony Harris of Virginia just don’t quite do it for me yet.  Collins is a very good prospect when used correctly and by correctly I mean as an intimidating SS in the middle of a defense.  Collins is good enough in coverage but he makes his money destroying everything in front of him.  He played a little heavy in 2014 and if he lost a little bit of weight I think he would be more effective. That might scare teams because he could lose his punch but I think he could make up the lost weight with gained velocity because he would be faster.  Collins is at least a round better than the next best safety and that might push his value up.

 

2015 Draft Offensive Line Rankings

Outside of a franchise QB the one position every team desires on their offense is an elite left tackle to protect their franchise QB’s blindside, unfortunately this draft doesn’t provide a surefire franchise left tackle prospect.  There are a number of very good prospects that could become elite blindside protectors but there is not an Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden at the top of the draft.  Given the nature of this year’s offensive line group I’m going to give you the top 12 offensive line prospects regardless of position because many of these players could project to multiple positions and that matters in these rankings.  Even with the unsure nature of the top prospects in this draft it is still conceivable that a number of them will be drafted higher than they are projected because of need.  You can make a pretty compelling argument that every team in the top 11 has a big need on the offensive line and while it is highly unlikely an offensive lineman goes in the top 4 once Washington is on the clock at #5 all bets are off.

1. Brandon Scherff   Sr.   Iowa   OT

The Outland trophy winner from this last season is well known for his impressive strength and he is one of the most devastating run blockers in the game.  Scherff doesn’t have the classic LT build at 6’5 320 lbs. and he will struggle against the best speed rushers if he plays LT but if he gets his hands on a defender he won’t be beat.  Scherff is a mauler with a nasty attitude and many teams project him at either RT or inside at guard.  He could be a road grader at RT for someone and worst case scenario is he becomes an elite guard for the next ten years.  The reason I’m ranking Scherff first is because he has the least downside of any of the prospects and he has a decent chance at being a starting LT in the NFL on day one.  There are plenty of teams that are starting far inferior players at one of their OT spots.  I have a feeling Scherff will have a pretty good combine overall and something tells me he might put on a show on the bench press.

2. La’el Collins   Sr.   LSU   OT/OG

Collins is the next closest thing to a sure thing but he is almost guaranteed to end up inside at guard I only list him at tackle too because he could be a RT for a team in need.  His body style is better suited to the inside of the line and he will likely excel at OG.  Collins has played LT at LSU so in a pinch he could be used there or at RT but his value is as an immediate starter for a team looking to solidify the interior of their offensive line much the way the Zack Martin did as a rookie for the Cowboys this year.

3. Andrus Peat   Jr.   Stanford   OT

Peat is the first true tackle on the board because at 6’7 312 lbs. he would be an anomaly at guard.  Peat’s junior season at Stanford wasn’t as good as many expected and most teams project him as a RT because he struggled at times in college.  Peat might mature into a starting LT and there are plenty of teams that would use him at that position immediately but he would be best served being eased into it.  He has the prototypical build for an elite LT but Peat has some growing to do and teams can see that.

4. TJ Clemmings   Sr.   Pittsburgh   OT

Even though Clemmings is a fifth year senior out of Pitt he is still a very raw project because he spent most of his college career on the defensive line only moving to the offensive side two years ago.  Teams see a player with a good build, solid athleticism and an aggressive demeanor and they think he can be an elite tackle.  Clemmings doesn’t have the usual length of a LT so he is still best projected at RT and yes he could also move inside to guard.  He has high upside given his limited time at the position but it is hard to rank him above guys that have less of a learning curve.

5. Ereck Flowers   Jr.   Miami   OT

Flowers is one of the more intriguing OT prospects in this draft because he is still a young guy that needs to be molded by a good offensive line coach.  Miami hasn’t been a great team for a few years now but they still put out plenty of NFL talent and Flowers has a lot of raw ability.  He could be a day one starter for someone or he could be like Taylor Lewan last year and go to a team that doesn’t need him right away but he eventually earns a starting nod.  He’s a good athlete that can handle the LT position but he could also be a very good RT early on.

6. AJ Cann   Sr.   South Carolina   OG

The OT position is the big money position and it is the one that gets the most attention but teams are learning that a strong interior line is extremely valuable and AJ Cann is the top pure guard in this draft and he’s well worth a high pick.  It’s fairly rare to see a pure guard go in the first round but it is becoming more commonplace and Cann could be the exception this year.  At 6’3 311 lbs. he has the right combination of size, strength and mobility to be top guard in the NFL.

7. Cameron Erving   Sr.   Florida St.   C

After playing so well a season ago for the National Champion Seminoles and blocking for Heisman winner Jameis Winston Erving was on his way to a spot atop the OT rankings but it never happened.  He started the year playing less than stellar football at LT and teams started to doubt his ability.  Then a funny thing happened, the Seminoles had some injury issues on their line and Erving moved inside to center.  This is not a typical transition to say the least but Erving excelled at his new spot and stabilized the Florida St. line.  With only a half of a season at center Erving became the top prospect at the position and at 6’5 308 lbs. he brings unusually good size to the position.  He may sneak into the end of the first round as there are a few teams (Detroit, Baltimore and Indianapolis) that might be looking for an upgrade on the interior of their offensive line if other position needs are unable to be filled.

8. Ty Sambrailo   Sr.   Colorado St.   OT

Sambrailo has a lot of experience and it has come all over the line at Colorado St. over the past four years and he could project to any position on the line except center.  The problem is that he will be making a major step up in competition as he didn’t regularly face elite speed rushers while playing for the Rams.  I do like his size at 6’6 308 lbs. and he has good feet but he needs some strength to hold up against NFL defenses.

9. Cedric Ogbuehi   Sr.   Texas A&M   OT

Ogbuehi went into this season as the odds on favorite to be the top OT in this draft but he season did not go to plan.  He was hoping to follow in the footsteps of the two previous LTs for the Aggies Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews who went #3 and #6 overall in the two previous drafts.  Ogbuehi move to LT from RT as they both had but during the season his play was not up to par and he was moved back to RT for a time.  He has steadily fallen down the draft board as others have moved ahead of him.  He is still a solid prospect and he is a starting RT in the NFL for sure but his ceiling doesn’t look as high right now.  He needs to impress at the combine and in workouts to stop his fall and get some good momentum.  He isn’t in the class of Joeckel or Matthews right now but he can still help a team out and someone will likely get a nice prospect in the second or third round.

10. Laken Tomlinson   Sr.   Duke   OG

Yep a draft with a Duke prospect and it’s not the NBA.  Tomlinson didn’t have as dominating of a season as many thought he might but he was still good.  He is the second pure guard after AJ Cann and he should go in the second round or early third and he will start immediately.  At 6’3 323 lbs. he’s bigger and more powerful than Cann but he doesn’t have quite the mobility.  He’s experienced and he won’t have a problem adjusting to the NFL.

11. Daryl Williams   Sr.   Oklahoma   OT

At 6’5 334 lbs. Williams is a fully developed power RT and he can step in immediately.  Williams may never be a Pro Bowl level player but he’s a long term starter and he will not disappoint.

12. Tre Jackson   Sr.   Florida St.   OG

Jackson is a beast at 6’4 323 lbs. and he’s been starting on the Seminoles line for a while.  He wasn’t as dominate as expected as Florida St.’s entire line struggled early in the year but Jackson is a guy that is going to get drafted in the third or maybe the fourth round and start for his team for the next decade.  He’s a mauler with an attitude and teams love that in their guards.

2015 Draft Defensive Tackle Rankings

Defensive tackles come in two sizes big and bigger.  The big ones play defensive tackle and the bigger ones play nose tackle.  Okay that’s an oversimplification but it’s true.  There are quite a few top prospects at the position this year and guys that can step in right away and make a difference.  It isn’t as deep as the edge pass rusher position but there could be some good quality in round 2.

1. Leonard Williams   Sr.   USC

There is about a 99% chance that the #1 pick in the draft is going to be a QB whether it’s Winston or Mariota.  If any player can knock those two off the top spot it is Williams.  He is the best prospect in the draft and he’s earned that title.  Williams will fit in any scheme and at multiple positions due to his skillset.  At 6’5 300 lbs. he is a very powerful force inside or setting the edge on the outside.  He plays with great leverage and while his initial step isn’t always quick off the line he makes up for that by packing a punch.  Williams is an immovable force with true brute strength that makes him impossible to block one-on-one.  He isn’t a great pass rusher generally but on twists and stunts he can make plays.

2. Danny Shelton   Sr.   Washington   NT

Shelton was seen as a pretty good prospect after the season and then he went to the Senior Bowl and absolutely blew up.  He is a perfect nose tackle prospect at 6’2 343 lbs. and he can be dominating from that position.  It is hard to find a true NT and teams that need one will be falling all over themselves to grab Shelton.  Unlike a lot of NTs Shelton can actually get to the QB with a number of different moves but he won’t make a living doing that.

3. Malcolm Brown   Sr.   Texas

Brown is a playmaker at DT and he would excel in any 4-3 defense but he also has versatility.  At 6’4 320 lbs. he has the size to line up at NT but he also possesses the athletic ability to play the five-technique.  He would be best suited at DT but every team is going to take a close look.  Brown has great feet and is probably the best pass rusher from the inside position because of his balance and athleticism.  Needs to use his hands better to disengage blockers but that’s a coachable skill.

4. Eddie Goldman   Sr.   Florida St.   NT

Goldman isn’t the NT prospect that Shelton is but he is strictly a NT prospect and that’s the problem.  He anchors very well at the point of attack and he has violent hands which makes him difficult to handle in close quarters.  He doesn’t have the skillset of a pass rusher which limits which teams will look at him but he’s a very good NT prospect and those guys don’t grow on trees.

5. Carl Davis   Sr.   Iowa

At 6’4 320 lbs. Davis is a large man with great power especially in his lower body and when he anchors down he’s impossible to move.  He shows a number of good pass rushing moves but rarely finishes off the pass rush which is why his sack numbers were low.  Davis is disruptive and he can plan next to anyone on the interior and play off of them.  He fits best in a 4-3 defense but he could be a five-technique in the right circumstance.

6. Jordan Phillips   Redshirt Soph.   Oklahoma   NT

Phillips is a mountain of a man at 6’6 334 lbs. and his potential is outrageous.  Unfortunately at this point it is all potential as he really hasn’t had consistent production.  He was only a redshirt sophomore so he doesn’t have the experience of the older players but he has some issues.  Phillips is a NT type of player due to his sheer size but his height could be a detriment because he plays high and loses leverage.  Someone is going to draft him quite high simply because you can’t teach a guy to be that big but you can teach him better technique and better leverage.

7. Michael Bennett   Sr.   Ohio St.

Bennett is the smallest of the top DT prospects at 6’2 and just 288 lbs. but he is technically proficient and uses his balance, agility and athleticism to make up for his lack of size.  Not the strongest player at the point of attack but he knows how to slip blocks and disrupt an offense.  Bennett plays well for his size inside and he can move outside too giving him some versatility in a 4-3 scheme.  He doesn’t wow you with his skills but he always seems to be around the ball making plays.

8. Xavier Cooper   Jr.   Washington St.

Cooper is a big guy that could line up inside at DT or as a 3-4 end and use his skills well from either spot.  He’s well-built and very thick with good power and good movement skills.  He’s not a great tackler even though he sheds blocks fairly well.  He still needs some coaching to reach his potential.

9. Gabe Wright   Sr.   Auburn

Wright is built to be an interior defensive lineman but he’s actually a better pass rusher than he is a run stuffer and that is why he’s lower in the rankings.  Teams draft defensive tackles to stuff up the middle first and rush the passer second.  Wright has his place as a passing down DT but he has a lot of work to do to be an every down type of player.

10. Ellis McCarthy   Jr.   UCLA   NT

McCarthy may not be in everyone’s top 10 DT rankings but he possess such raw potential I think he’s better than a lot of guys.  He’s huge at 6’4 330 lbs. and he has a prototypical NT build but he wasn’t strictly a NT at UCLA.  The Bruins play multiple fronts and McCarthy can play different ways.  He isn’t a pass rusher but he is the definition of an anchor at the point of attack.  Love his potential and he’s only true downside is that he has struggled in the past with his weight, if he keeps that under control he will be very good.

 

 

 

Running Back and Wide Receiver are both deep positions in this draft while Tight End is extremely shallow.

2015 NFL Draft Running Back Rankings

The NFL has seen a devaluing of the RB position over the past several years and nowhere is that more prevalent than in the NFL draft.  No RB has gone in the first round of the past two drafts and the last time it did happen was in 2012 when three RBs made it.  Those three don’t really inspire confidence that RB should return to top of the draft board.  Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and David Wilson went #3, #31 and #32 overall in the 2012 draft and haven’t exactly been lighting up the league.  Wilson’s career is already over due to an injury, Richardson’s career is on life support as he has failed for two teams and while Martin had one stellar year he hasn’t really done much else.  A few numbers to ponder when considering drafting a RB in the first round; 13 players rushed for more than 1000 yards during the 2014 regular season only one was drafted in the first round (Marshawn Lynch), there were just as many 6^th round picks (Alfred Morris) 7^th round picks (Justin Forsett) and undrafted players (Arian Foster); of those 13 players that rushed for over 100 yards 5 were second round picks (Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill and Matt Forte); out of the top 20 rushers in the league only 3 were first round picks (Lynch, Mark Ingram and Jonathan Stewart); the league’s leading rusher was Dallas’ DeMarco Murray (3^rd round pick) but he was lucky enough to run behind 3 1^st round pick offensive linemen (there may be a correlation there).  After making my point very clear that taking a RB in the first round is not necessary I’m almost certain the Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon is a lock for the 1^st round of the 2015 NFL draft.  In addition this year’s class may just restock a third of the NFL teams with starting caliber RBs.  The class is as deep and talented as it has been in years.

1. Melvin Gordon   Jr.   Wisconsin

Wisconsin has a history of great college running backs unfortunately that history doesn’t seem to include great NFL success.  Recent Badger tailbacks include; James White, Montee Ball, John Clay, PJ Hill, Brian Calhoun and the most celebrated Badger back of them all Ron Dayne.  Dayne’s career was pretty nondescript and while White and Ball are just getting started they don’t look like they will start the world on fire.  It seems like I’m making a case against Gordon but actually I think he breaks all those molds.  He’s worth a 1^st round pick (and every mock draft from now until April is going to have him going to the Colts) and he is a better prospect than all those former Badgers.  Gordon is big enough to carry the load in the backfield but he has elite speed that means every time he touches the ball he could end up in the end zone.  Using him in a variety of ways means creating mismatches all over the field and he will be an incredible weapon.  If the Colts don’t sign a free agent RB before the draft and Gordon falls to their spot at #29 (that’s a big if) they would be crazy to pass on him.  An offense built around Andrew Luck, TY Hilton and Melvin Gordon could do real damage.

2. Todd Gurley   Jr.   Georgia

Gurley was headed to the top RB spot in the 2015 draft until he was suspended from Georgia for improper benefits then when he returned from that suspension he torn his ACL in his first game back… oh and then Melvin Gordon ran for about 5,000 yards and took the top spot.  Despite all of this, especially the ACL tear, Gurley could still go in the first round and no one would really question it.  He’s a favorite in mock drafts to be scooped up by one of the two Super Bowl teams either the Seahawks or Patriots and given those two teams employ big power backs Marshawn Lynch and LaGarrett Blount it’s easy to see why.  Gurley is listed at 6’1 226 lbs. and he’s all power and he is most often compared to Marshawn Lynch because of his propensity to go into his own “Beast Mode” ala Lynch.  Gurley’s durability is a bit of a question as is how long his career can last given his power running style but given the trend at RB in the NFL teams won’t hesitate to draft him.  If you look over that list of rushing leaders I referenced earlier there is another trend that becomes evident besides the rounds they were drafted in, of the 13 1,000 yard rushers this last season only 3 of them weighed less than 215 lbs. (LeSean McCoy, Justin Forsett and Jamaal Charles).  The power running game has become the complement to the spread passing attack because teams try to match up with the passing game using smaller, quicker defenders and big backs can take advantage.

3. Tevin Coleman   Jr.   Indiana

I may have Coleman higher on my list than a lot of others but I promise it’s not just because he ran all over the Iowa Hawkeyes to the tune of 219 yards.  At around 6’0 210 lbs. Coleman fits perfectly in the mold of an NFL back and he has good power and excellent speed.  He hits the hole quickly and efficiently and if he had played on a better college team his numbers would have been incredible.  Coleman is undervalued and someone is going to end up with and exceptional back.

4. Ameer Abdullah   Sr.   Nebraska

As you can see the Big Ten was stacked with great running backs and I’m not even done yet.  Abdullah is smaller in stature than most of the top backs coming in at about 5’8 and just under 200 lbs. but he doesn’t play like it.  He isn’t the biggest back but he is low to the ground so he has no problem delivering a hit at the end of the run and he generates power from his impressive speed.  After carrying the ball over 750 times over the past three years his durability is obvious but where Abdullah lacks is in the pass game.  Given Nebraska’s offense during Abdullah’s career it isn’t unusual that he never caught more than 26 passes in a season but he isn’t a natural pass catcher either.  He lacks bulk along with experience which makes him less than ideal in blitz pickup situations.

5. Jay Ajayi   Jr.   Boise St.

I haven’t seen a lot of this guy but what I have seen I like a lot.  Good size and great instincts along with really good hands catching the ball.  He had some character issues early in his career at Boise St. but he didn’t run and hide (aka transfer) he stuck it out, got back into good standing with his coaches and proved to be an asset.  Teams will do deep background on him but it seems like just stupid immature stuff he may have outgrown.  His pass blocking isn’t great but he’s such a threat in the passing game he will stay on the field as an outlet receiver.  He runs better to the outside than he does between the tackles so he may not be much of a short yardage back and may have to share time with a big back.

6. Duke Johnson   Jr.   Miami

There is a long line of backs out of Miami in the last 15 years or so and Johnson is good but I’m not sure he ever lives up to the likes of Edgerrin James, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis or Willis McGahee.  Johnson is more quick than fast although he does have good speed.  He has great cutting ability and his acceleration out of those cuts is second to none.  In the right system he is a dynamic weapon but he too should be paired with a big back that can take the pounding between the tackles and let Johnson work in space.

7. TJ Yeldon   Jr.   Alabama

Yeldon had some injuries issues at Alabama and one of the reasons he came out early is because he wasn’t guaranteed to get his job back for the Crimson Tide.  So is the life of an Alabama player, if you get hurt there is likely someone just as talented if not more so ready to take your job.  Yeldon is a unique back because at 6’2 220 lbs. he is tall and lean looking but he packs some deceptive power.  He runs to upright and that leads to his injury issues but he’s so good when healthy that he is worth the risk.  Everything about Yeldon’s style is deceptive; his power, his burst and acceleration that will leave you tackling air and his breakaway speed.  If he gets in the open field you’ll only see the back of his jersey.  Yeldon could fall to the fourth, fifth or sixth round but depending on which team gets him he could be a major contributor next season.

8. David Cobb   Sr.   Minnesota

Cobb is not flashy but he is effective.  This too is not a ranking based on his complete domination of the Iowa Hawkeyes but I guarantee he sent that game tape out to every scout in the country.  He is a grinder, he isn’t the guy ripping off long run after long run (unless he’s playing Iowa) but he will just keep coming at you until he breaks your will.  He doesn’t run with anger like Marshawn Lynch and he sometimes goes down too easily running inside but he’ll get up and come right back at you the next play.  Cobb reminds me a little of Frank Gore and my guess is he’ll have a career that lasts that long.

9. Jeremy Langford   Sr.   Michigan St.

Another Big Ten back (yep the conference was stacked this last year) and another one that isn’t flashy.  Langford doesn’t stand out as overly fast or really powerful on tape he’s just a solid RB that gets the job done.  Langford is good between the tackles but not great and he can bounce a play outside but he isn’t going to outrun everyone on the defense.  Where Langford separates himself is all the other facets of the game.  The Spartans were a fantastic screen team because Langford was exceptional at that particular skill, he also excels at pass protection.  He needs to work on waiting for his blocks but he will stick on a roster because he does all the things coaches worry about having a rookie do during the course of a game.

10. David Johnson   Sr.   Northern Iowa

I really wasn’t going to put Johnson in my top 10 because I thought it would look like I was just ranking guys that killed Iowa this season and then Johnson went down to the Senior Bowl and showed everyone why he killed Iowa.  His 210 receiving yards against Iowa were no fluke and teams are actually looking at Johnson as an H-back type of player.  He has great versatility as he could line up at RB, FB, H-back, TE or in the slot.  He’s a little short to be a traditional TE but given teams propensities for using the “move TE” position his skillset fits.  Johnson is a little stiff in the hips and he isn’t very elusive as a RB but he has great hands and a fantastic feel for the passing game.  He doesn’t have elite speed but he is extremely tough to tackle given his stout build.  Johnson might get drafted before anyone expected him to and he’ll make a team because of his versatility and his willingness to play anywhere and do anything his coaches ask of him.

The rest of the class: 

I said this class was deep and talented and here are some more names to remember during the next few months as any of these guys could rocket up the draft board with a great workout; Mike Davis (Jr) South Carolina, Javorius “Buck” Allen (Jr) USC, Cameron Artis-Payne (Jr) Auburn, Matt Jones (Jr) Florida and Karlos Williams (Sr) Florida St.  If I were to bet on any of these guys rising up the board I would put my money on Artis-Payne or Allen.

 

2015 Draft WR Prospect Rankings

The 2015 draft is pretty deep at WR but it doesn’t quite compare to the 2014 draft.  The 2014 draft is going to go down as the deepest WR draft in history and it goes far beyond the five guys that went in the first round.  Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin have a legitimate chance to go down as the best group of 1^st round WRs ever but the rest of the list makes the rookie class incredible.  Jordan Matthews, Devante Adams, Donte Moncrief, Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, Jarvis Landry, John Brown and Martavius Bryant were all draft picks that contributed heavily for their teams and Allen Hurns and Philly Brown were undrafted free agents that contributed too.  The 2015 class has three elite prospects (Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker and Kevin White) and four more guys that could easily go in the first round of the draft (Devin Funchess, Jaelen Strong, Sammie Coates and Dorial Green-Beckham).  There is plenty of depth too but it might not be quite like last year.  The middle of the first round has a number of teams that could be looking at WR (#15 San Francisco, #18 Kansas City, #19 Cleveland if they pass at #12, #25 Carolina and #26 Baltimore) and that’s lines up with Strong’s value.  There are teams at the end of the first round with major free agent WR issues (Dallas-Dez Bryant, Denver-Demaryius Thomas, Green Bay-Randall Cobb) or just a major need at WR (Seattle) meaning as many as six or seven WRs could go in the first round or teams may hold off because of the depth at the position and address other needs first.

1. Amari Cooper   Jr.   Alabama

The NFL has seen the WR position grow, literally.  Players like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas have revolutionized the position by being big and fast instead of just one or the other.  While there are prospects that fit the mold this year Cooper isn’t one of them but he is the best WR prospect in the draft regardless.  At 6’1 210 lbs. Cooper isn’t a physically imposing WR and there is little chance he’s going to blaze a sub 4.4 40 yard dash at any point so his speed isn’t going to kill you.  What Cooper brings is great balance, acceleration and an innate ability to beat coverage.  He may not compare to Johnson or Jones but he reminds me of Torry Holt and that’s a pretty good WR to be compared to.  Just about every mock draft at the moment has him going to the Oakland Raiders at #4 and it will probably stay that way until Parker or White light up the combine and then everyone will jump on their bandwagon.  I will not be one of those people because I’ve watched Cooper play.  If the Raiders want to accelerate Derek Carr’s progress as their franchise QB Cooper is the guy they should draft.  Parker and White are great WR prospects but Cooper makes Carr’s life easier on day one.

2. DeVante Parker   Sr.   Louisville

Just because I think Cooper is the top WR in the draft doesn’t mean I don’t like Parker or White.  At 6’3 210 lbs. Parker is a dynamic playmaker that is going to make some team extremely happy and the Cleveland Browns should do whatever they have to in order to grab him in the first round.  Parker had a bit of an injury plagued year and without Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him his numbers were down but he is the type of WR teams love.  He’s big, fast and physical and he makes QBs look good.  Teddy Bridgewater’s new NFL team the Vikings should take a serious look at adding Parker at the #11 pick before the Browns can grab him 12^th.

3. Kevin White   Sr.   West Virginia

White comes in at 6’3 210 lbs. also and he’s very similar to Parker in many ways.  White is big, fast and physical too and while Parker has better deep speed White has a quickness that helps him get free off the line and an initial burst Parker doesn’t have.  It’s a coin flip as to who is better and teams will have to decide which one they like more.  All three of the top WR should go in the top 12 of the draft not just because they rank that high but also because at least 6 of the teams in the top 12 need WR; Titans, Raiders, Jets, Rams, Vikings and Browns.

4. Jaelen Strong   Jr.   Arizona St.

As there is some debate about the order of the top 3 WRs in this class the will be some debate about who is #4.  Strong, Devin Funchess from Michigan and the wildcard Dorial Green-Beckham are the next group and they all have their positives and negatives.  I like Strong because while his ceiling may not be as high as Green-Beckham his floor isn’t as low and while he isn’t as big as Funchess he is a more natural receiver.  At 6’3 215 lbs. Strong has a similar size to Parker and White but he isn’t quite as fast, however, he is a more physical receiver than either of them.  He isn’t as polished as those two either but he is still a player that could contribute early because of his natural ability.

5. Dorial Green-Beckham   Jr.   Oklahoma (kind of) formerly Missouri

When you are 6’5 225 lbs. and run like a gazelle teams will forgive a lot of issues.  Green-Beckham is the most physically gifted WR in this draft and if he didn’t have bright red flashing flags all over him he would be a top 10 pick without a doubt.  Here are the red flags we know about; he was twice arrested for marijuana possession while at Missouri although charges were dropped, dismissed or lessened in some way and there was an alleged incident of Green-Beckham forcing his way into an apartment of a woman and pushing her down some stairs.  No charges filed there either but eventually he was dismissed from Missouri and transferred to Oklahoma.  A petition to the NCAA to allow him to play immediately was denied so he sat out this last season and declared for the draft.  Being a WR with marijuana issues leads me to believe the Cleveland Browns have almost certainly removed him from their draft board (they can’t possibly be that stupid) and the drug issues coupled with the possible domestic violence incident is going to make Green-Beckham a tough sell (he’s a walking suspension waiting to happen).  Purely from a football standpoint he could be the next Calvin Johnson but the odds are on him being the next Josh Gordon.  I’m ranking him fifth as a player but if I were a GM I wouldn’t touch this headcase with a 10 foot pole.

6. Devin Funchess   Jr.   Michigan

Funchess is an interesting prospect because he really started his career at Michigan playing TE and then instead of bulking up he stayed at around 230 lbs. and played WR.  He was about the only bright spot during Brady Hoke’s final year in Ann Arbor.  At 6’5 230 lbs. Funchess is a big WR that can make plays on the outside using his size but he doesn’t bring the speed like a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones does so his game is mostly predicated on him being bigger and more physical than his opponent.  He does bring some versatility because a team could use him as their move TE and he would be a tough matchup on LB or S.  Where Funchess plays and how he’s used is going to depend completely on which team drafts him.

7. Sammie Coates   Jr.   Auburn

The borderline 1^st round prospect is Auburn junior Sammie Coates.  At 6’2 213 lbs. he’s built a lot like Dez Bryant and he has the necessary speed to beat teams deep.  He isn’t the most consistent catching the ball and he’s game needs some real refinement.  If a good WR coach gets ahold of him he could be a dynamic weapon.  Given there are around a dozen teams that could use an upgrade at WR seeing Coates make the first round would not be surprising and he could really wow some teams at the combine or at workouts and climb the board.  Coates has a lot of potential and he could be a late first round steal.

8. Rashad Greene   Sr.   Florida St.

I’m a little higher on Greene than most.  He isn’t a physically intimidating WR at 6’0 180 lbs. but he knows how to play the position.  He was a favorite target of Jameis Winston and he makes a QB’s job easier by being where he is supposed to be.  A good route runner and a guy that brings some value as a special teams return guy ranks pretty high on my board.

9. Nelson Agholor   Jr.   USC

Agholor probably would have benefited from another year catching passes from Cody Kessler at USC but he’s a good WR with the added bonus of being a good punt returner.  Agholor tracks and catches the deep ball very well and while he isn’t big at 6’1 190 lbs. he wins more jump balls than you would expect.  He’s a long-strider that needs a little space to get up to his top speed but he seems to do well catching balls even with close coverage.

10. Josh Harper   Sr.   Fresno St.

A player that was better as a junior than as a senior because of the drop-off at QB for his college team.  Harper teamed with Devante Adams his junior year to make a nice set of WRs for QB Derek Carr.  Harper is a good athlete that is more quick than fast.  He doesn’t have elite deep speed and he dances a little too much trying to gain yardage because he lacks physicality to get tough yards.  His quick burst off the line makes him a difficult cover and he has really good hands even in traffic.  Harper is going to make some team a very good third WR right away and he could become a very solid starter in the future.

The best of the rest: 

Devin Smith (Ohio St.) – Not sure if he ever ran anything other than a go route but he has great deep speed.  He averaged 27.2 yards per catch last season.  If you want a deep threat he’s your man.

Phillip Dorsett (Miami) – The only guy to average more yards per catch than Devin Smith was Dorsett but he’s a lot smaller WR at 5’10 (that’s generous) 183 lbs.  He is the definition of elite speed but his hands are inconsistent and being undersized hurts his stock.

Tyler Lockett (Kansas St.) – Another undersized player but he is one of the best return men in the game and he comes by it naturally.

Ty Montgomery (Stanford) – He had a bad week at the Senior Bowl and it hurt him but he can play and someone will grab him in the later rounds.

Justin Hardy (East Carolina) – His numbers were inflated because ECU schemed to get him the ball a lot but what does it say about a kid when the entire defense knows where the ball is going and they still can’t stop you.  Hardy is a player.

Stefon Diggs (Maryland) – Diggs just makes plays.  He isn’t big or physical but he has good speed and he knows how to use it.  He needs work on his route running and he can’t block at all but he could help a team in need of some WR depth.

I could go on but I won’t so apologies to Jamison Crowder (Duke), Tony Lippett (Michigan St.) and Breshad Perriman (UCF).

2015 Draft TE Prospect Ranking

I though the QB draft class was thin until I took a look at the TE draft class.  With most teams seeing Devin Funchess as a WR prospect and not a TE prospect this class is skinnier than a runway model.

1. Maxx Williams   Redshirt Soph.   Minnesota

The redshirt sophomore left Minnesota early and he is far and away the best TE prospect in the draft.  He wasn’t exactly filling up the stat sheet at Minnesota because their offense is pretty run based but you can see enough on film to really like his skillset.  He catches the ball naturally with his hands, he has good speed and athleticism and he’s a solid inline blocker after his time in the Golden Gophers offense.  Williams isn’t in the mold of the new NFL TE like Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham because he isn’t that type of athlete and he is 6’4 not 6’7.  The guy he reminds me of is Cowboys TE Jason Witten and considering Witten is a likely future Hall of Famer that’s not a bad guy to pattern your game after.

2. Clive Walford   Sr.   Miami

Miami has produced some excellent TEs in recent history and while Walford has great athleticism and loads of potential he’s not quite up to guys like Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen.  However, those three played on far better Miami teams so perhaps Walford just needs better talent around him.  He doesn’t have the size to be much of a blocker but in today’s NFL he can be a matchup problem and that makes him a very nice prospect.  He is also helped by the fact that he and Williams have really separated themselves from the pack at TE.  Walford had an excellent week at the Senior Bowl and he proved to everyone that he’s ready to contribute to an NFL team quickly.

That’s it folks, that’s the entirety of my rankings at TE.  Devin Funchess is considered a WR for these purposes and guys like Nick O’Leary from Florida St. and Ben Koyack from Notre Dame just don’t move the needle for me.  Penn St. junior Jesse James looks the part but I’m not convinced by his on the field production.

 

 

 

It’s time to move on from the depressing subject that is the Iowa Hawkeye football program and focus on my favorite sporting event of the year the NFL Draft.  I’ve spent a lot of time looking at a lot of prospects and I’m going to rank my top 5 or top 10 or top 12 (depending on position) and give you a little preview of what to expect in the draft.  Some positions are deep (WRs and pass rushers) and some are not (QB, TE and Safety).  There are players that will rise and players that will fall after the combine due to a number of reasons and yes I’ll watch as much of the combine as I can.  I’m hoping to go to the NFL Draft this year in Chicago but we will see if I can get tickets and/or anyone to go with me.  I’m accepting volunteers if you’re interested.

Quarterbacks

If you want to compete for a Super Bowl in the NFL you have to have a QB and if you don’t believe me just look at the list of QB’s for the final eight teams in the playoffs this season; Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco and Cam Newton.  Unfortunately for so many teams that are still searching for answers at the league’s most important position this draft doesn’t offer a lot of help and the help it does offer has lots of question marks.  I was going to rank the top 10 QB’s in this draft but I can’t find that many to rank so I’m going with the top 5 instead.  There are two likely first round picks, one that might sneak into the first round but should probably go in the second and then no one else should go before the fourth round but given the sheer number of teams that need to address the position some of these guys and many other could get drafted way too high.  By my estimation four teams need to immediately address the position (Tampa Bay, NY Jets, St. Louis and Houston), four teams are crossing their fingers that someone already on the roster is the answer (Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger, Washington with Robert Griffin III, Cleveland with Johnny Manziel and Buffalo with EJ Manuel). Two teams that have to address the fact that they have aging QBs with no legitimate heir apparent (New Orleans with Drew Brees and Arizona with Carson Palmer) and three teams hoping their guys bounce back but they may want to hedge their bets (Chicago, San Francisco and Philadelphia).  Cutler and Kaepernick regressed last year and are hoping that coaching changes solve their issues while Chip Kelly is hoping that either Nick Foles recovers from his injury and regains his form or that he can swing a trade for his former Oregon QB Marcus Mariota.  By my count that’s 13 teams looking for QB help and most of them are going to be extremely disappointed by this draft.  Here are my rankings for now.

1. Marcus Mariota   Jr.   Oregon

I know the bloom is off the Mariota rose at the moment and everyone is jumping on the Jameis Winston bandwagon for the #1 pick and it may very well turn out that way but I’m not a big believer in either of these two as a franchise QB.  Mariota had a rough National Championship game against Ohio St. and they exposed some flaws in his game but he is still a pretty good QB with some exceptional physical gifts and great character.  Winston has the better arm and he’s clearly the physical specimen NFL teams look for but Mariota has a lot of game experience, his arm is good enough and the odds of him ending up in jail are far lower than those of Winston.  Mariota has to work on his accuracy throwing NFL routes and that’s going to be difficult given the fact he is dealing with a shoulder injury that occurred during the Ohio St. game.  His fall on draft boards has already begun and if he can’t throw until later in the scouting process that fall will continue but for his sake that might be a good thing.  Rumors are swirling that Chip Kelly wants to make a play for his former college QB and that would be almost impossible if Mariota was going to go in the top 5.  Philadelphia has the 20^th pick in the draft and while they could couple it with Nick Foles that doesn’t vault them into the top 5.  If they don’t want to mortgage their future by giving up multiple #1 picks in the future (and just ask the Redskins how that turned out for them) they better hope Mariota drops closer to #10.  No one questions Mariota’s character and everyone agrees he’s the type of guy you want leading your franchise but production on the field is still the primary focus.

2. Jameis Winston   Redshirt Sophomore   Florida St.

Whether it’s Tampa Bay at #1, Tennessee at #2 or someone like the NY Jets at #6 someone is going to roll the dice on Winston and it will probably be fairly early in the draft.  Winston is the ultimate boom or bust pick.  He has every physical tool you could want in a QB at 6’4 230 lbs. with a rocket arm, mobility and pocket awareness.  The problem is that his scouting report is going to have more red flags than Arlington National Cemetery has American flags on Memorial Day.  Winston has been accused of sexual assault; something the NFL certainly can’t turn a blind eye towards given recent history, he was caught shoplifting and admitted to it (using a myriad of lame excuses).  He was questioned by police about someone shooting out windows with a BB gun and he was accused of stealing soda at a Burger King.  Obviously the last three incidents wouldn’t be a big deal but couple them with the more serious accusation of sexual assault and teams may form a picture of the type of guy Winston is and that may be hard to break.  Johnny Manziel’s less than stellar year with Cleveland will give many teams pause in evaluating Winston.  Even if teams believe Winston isn’t guilty of the sexual assault allegations there is still a picture of an immature kid that isn’t ready to be the face of a franchise.  Winston’s teammates seem to love him and he checks all the boxes on the scouting report but as far as being a #1 overall pick he is the equivalent of buying a Powerball ticket.

3. Brett Hundley   Jr.   UCLA

Hundley will probably be the biggest beneficiary of the total lack of quality QBs in this draft.  Couple that with at least eight teams looking for solutions sooner rather than later and he might just jump into the first round.  Mariota and Winston are likely high first round picks Hundley probably should be a second round choice, however, while the drop-off from Mariota/Winston to Hundley is a step the drop-off from Hundley to the #4 QB is a cliff.  Teams that miss out on the top two guys may look to jump back into the end of the first round and grab Hundley before he makes it to where those QB needy teams sit early in the second round.  Hundley played a lot of games at UCLA and while he has experience he is not a finished product.  He is athletic with a good arm and brings loads of potential but he is far from a sure thing.  If Mariota and Winston sit out the scouting combine like most top QB prospects do Hundley could make some noise with a good day throwing.  He isn’t the elite athlete Mariota is and he doesn’t quite have the size or arm of Winston but Hundley might be the safer choice than both of them.  Mariota may have been a product of Oregon’s offense and Winston may be a time bomb waiting to go off.  Hundley ran a system at UCLA that would allow him to transition easier than Mariota and he doesn’t have Winston’s checkered history.

4. Bryce Petty   Sr.   Baylor

Let’s get something straight about Petty right off the bat, he is better than being some “product of the system” at Baylor and he’s a solid QB prospect, however, being in that system at Baylor may have dulled some of his skills that he would need to be a top NFL starter.  It will certainly take some time for him to get used to taking the snap from center given that that never happens in Baylor’s offense.  The Baylor offense is designed to create mismatches and make reads very easy and Petty did it well but the NFL is a whole new ballgame.  Petty has good size and better athleticism than you might expect but he didn’t have to make a lot of NFL throws in college.  Someone might take him in the late second round or early third if they panic but he’s probably a fourth rounder at best.

5. Umm….well…give me a minute….still thinking…hold on…let me check something.

So here are the names of the three other draftable prospects at QB; Colorado St.’s Garrett Grayson, East Carolina’s Shane Carden and Oregon St.’s Sean Mannion.  Grayson has his supporters and at times he looks like he could actually be something but other times he looks rough.  He reminds me a little bit of Tony Romo when he just entered the league.  Romo needed a lot of coaching and he took it all in and made himself an NFL starting QB.  Grayson isn’t big at 6’2 and he doesn’t have a rocket arm but he can move around, keep his eyes down field and make a play.  Under the right QB coach he could be an NFL starter in 3-4 years.  Carden came up big from time to time at East Carolina but I just don’t see the arm or the awareness to become an NFL starter.  He looks like a solid back-up prospect but that’s about all.  Mannion is a bit of a disappointment as he went into the season as a guy that really could have risen up the draft boards but he just didn’t develop.  He’s 6’6 and almost 230 lbs. so he certainly looks the part and he’s been compared to Tampa Bay’s Mike Glennon and I’m still not sure if that’s a complement or not.  Mannion played for Mike Riley at Oregon St. so his transition to a pro-style offense should be seamless, that’s a big advantage for him.  Someone might find a steal in the fourth or fifth round but anything higher than that is pushing it.

Drafting anyone outside of these seven players at QB and that team is simply drafting a practice squad player.  Taking a flyer on Alabama’s Blake Sims, Washington St.’s Connor Halliday or Southeast Louisiana’s Bryan Bennett is just spending a draft pick hoping for a miracle.

Next year’s class:  One of the main reasons why this year’s class is so thin was that even though  Mariota, Winston and Hundley came out early several underclassmen that could have provided depth decided to return for next year and try to improve their draft stock.  Michigan St.’s Connor Cook, TCU’s Trevone Boykin, USC’s Cody Kessler, Ohio St.’s Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller and Stanford’s Kevin Hogan were all potential early entrants that chose to return to college.  They join Penn St.’s Christian Hackenberg (not eligible for 2015) to make what could be a very nice QB class next year.  The early money would be on Cook and Hackenberg to be the top QB because they fit the NFL mold best while Boykin and Jones offer superior athleticism (assuming Jones can beat out JT Barrett and/or Miller, that’s not a given).  Kessler had a great junior year at USC and he’ll have to repeat it with most of his skill position talent gone.  Hogan is hoping to rebound from a less than stellar season and my early dark horse NFL prospect no one is talking about is Indiana’s Nate Sudfeld, he fits the NFL profile he just plays on a lousy team.

So I’ve been spending most of my time lately on NFL Draft stuff, yes I’m in draft mode, but I still pay attention to Iowa Hawkeye recruiting pretty closely and I was hoping for an uplifting feeling after what has most certainly been a less than stellar year.  I was feeling really good after watching my beloved Patriots play win one of the best Super Bowl games I’ve ever seen.  This Hawkeye recruiting class brought me down a bit but I can always find the silver lining even when the Hawkeyes only out recruited Purdue in the Big Ten.  Yep, in a conference called the Big TEN Iowa had the 13th best recruiting class according to Rivals (other sites were slightly more generous ranking Iowa 12th).  Yes that means Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and Rutgers all out did Iowa.  I don’t want this to turn into a Ferentz/Davis bashing post again (I think I’ve covered that) but I can’t promise not to throw out the occasional shot at either one of them or both.

The Good News (I’m trying to start off on a positive note)

The Offensive Line Recruits  (OC James Daniels, OT Levi Paulsen, OL Landan Paulsen, OL Brett Waechter and possibly OG Jacob Newborg)

The top recruit in the class is 4 star OC James Daniels the younger brother of Hawkeye RB LeShun Daniels from Ohio.  Daniels is arguably the best pure center in the country and Iowa beat out Ohio St. (his father’s alma mater and home state school) and Alabama (no seriously) for James.  Having his brother on board was certainly a selling point but the coaches did a great job on this one and Daniels may earn early playing time.  He graduated early from high school and enrolled at Iowa for this spring semester so he’s already adjusting to college, working out with the strength and conditioning staff and he’ll participate in spring practice.  Daniels is already 6’4 275 lbs. so by August he could easily be physically ready to play.  He’s a natural center after played it throughout high school so he doesn’t have to learn the nuances of the position.  Austin Blythe is slated to return to center after moving to guard last year but if Daniels can prove that he’s ready I won’t be the least bit shocked to see him lined up over the ball for the first snap in August.  It’s possible Daniels plays guard for a year to learn from Blythe but Daniels at center and Blythe at guard might be the better lineup.

Levi and Landan Paulsen are twin brothers from Woodbury Central High School in northwest Iowa and they may be the two most underrated players I’ve ever seen.  Levi is 6’6 275 lbs. and played LT while Landan is 6’6 285 lbs. and played LG on their high school team…I think anyway I keep getting them confused.  There is a chance they both end up at OT and I’m alright with this because Iowa is seriously lacking for OTs on the depth chart and having bookend twins on the line would be awesome, of course that will not help me in remembering which one is the LT and which is the RT.

Brett Waechter is another northwest Iowa kid (it’s a theme with the OL guys) and he is also already enrolled at Iowa like James Daniels but he won’t be seeing the field this next year.  Waechter has some growing to do as he is only about 265 lbs. and he is also having shoulder surgery that will keep him on the sidelines.  The good thing about Waechter is that at 6’5 he has the frame to bulk up and he could end up inside at OG or outside at OT so he offers some nice versatility down the line.

Jacob Newborg was the first commitment for the 2015 recruiting class about a year and a half ago.  He is from Inwood, IA (I wasn’t lying about the northwest Iowa thing) and he’s an impressive looking player.  He’s so impressive that it isn’t completely settled if he’s going to play offensive guard or defensive tackle and there may be a throw down between the offensive and defensive staffs over him before all is said and done.  If I were to venture a guess I would say he ends up at defensive tackle but only because Iowa has plenty of offensive guard prospects on the roster and they struck out on most of the defensive tackle recruits this cycle.  Newborg is a beast and his motor runs non-stop and he could be a devastating player on the interior of the defensive line.  At offensive guard he would bring a nasty attitude that this team could use much the same way Brandon Scherff has for the past few years.

The Wide Receivers (Jerminic Smith, Emmanuel Ogwo and Adrian Falconer)

The Hawkeyes may have actually found some playmakers in Smith, Ogwo and Falconer now it’s just a matter of using them.  If the majority of playing time next season at WR is taking up by Matt Vandeberg, Jacob Hillyer, Riley McCarron and Andrew Stone then we are all in for a long year.  Tevaun Smith needs to be the focal point in passing game and players like Andre Harris, Derrick Mitchell and Jay Scheel need to be given every opportunity to get on the field.  Usually when Ferentz plays a freshman WR it’s a bit of a surprise which one it is (it was Vandeberg two years ago) but I’ve watched quite a bit of film on these three and Jerminic Smith looks like a player to me.  Smith isn’t big at 6’1 180 lbs. but he is fast, fluid and confident on the field.  He has a swagger to him that most Iowa WRs don’t have and the Hawkeye offense could use some of that.  He is dangerous with the ball in hands whether it’s catching the deep throw or grabbing a screen pass and running after the catch.  There are a lot of Hawkeye fans who are sick of the WR screen pass but I’m only sick of watching it when it’s run to the slowest WR on the field.  Ogwo and Falconer might surprise us all and get some playing time but they both look like they could use a year to grow.  Ogwo is a track star so he would bring a nice dose of speed to the position.  I certainly applaud the coaching staff on getting WR recruits from Texas (Smith and Ogwo) and Florida (Falconer), gotta go where the playmakers are.

The Linebackers (Jack Hockaday, Angelo Garbutt, Justin Jinning and Nick Wilson)

The LB position was definitely one of need in this class and not because Iowa is going to lose so many guys to graduation but because the two upper classes are unbelievably thin.  Travis Perry and Cole Fisher are the only seniors and there are no juniors on the roster at all.  Considering Perry and Fisher were beaten out by completely inexperienced players like Josey Jewell and Bo Bower it was pretty obvious that the position needed a talent infusion.  Hockaday was the all-everything in high school playing multiple positions and seeming excelling at them all.  He played QB on offense and he basically was his team’s offense.  He needs to put on weight to play LB but he is a special kind of athlete and he’ll contribute on special teams right away and he may find some playing time early if he adjusts quickly to just playing LB.  Garbutt was the good surprise the day before signing day as he picked Iowa over an offer from Nebraska and he too is expected to contribute on special teams immediately.  He is slightly bigger so he may be physically ready quicker than any of these guys.  Justin Jinning is an underrated athlete and Iowa could use someone with his skills in coverage.  Nick Wilson was a late offer after the Hawkeyes missed on a few prospects they had ahead of him on their board.  Wilson played safety at Dowling Catholic High School in West Des Moines and while the Hawkeyes are expecting him to bulk up and play outside LB I’m not so sure he shouldn’t give safety a try first.  Iowa isn’t exactly stacked at the safety position and if Wilson could play strong safety he might be better off there.

The Quarterbacks (Ryan Boyle and Drew Cook)

The two most athletic QBs Iowa has taken since Brad Banks and there is a chance neither of them ends up a QB.  Many Iowa fans would tell me to bite my tongue saying that but it is a possibility in the long run.  I actually think Boyle sticks and Cook moves but that change might be two years away.  Boyle led Dowling Catholic to consecutive 4A state titles the last two years and he brings a confidence that reminds me of Drew Tate.  He isn’t a polished passer but he’s gotten better and he was actually the leading rusher on his high school team meaning he’s a true dual threat QB.  He isn’t a tall QB (generously listed 6’1) but he is a good athlete with a strong build and he could play safety if he moves to another position in the future.  Cook is a tall QB at 6’5 and yes he is the son of former Hawkeye great Marv Cook.  Marv was Drew’s high school coach at Iowa City Regina and they have won five straight state titles (Drew only QBed the last 3).  Drew is also very athletic and he has become a much better passer over the past two years.  From a scouting perspective Cook has some mechanical issues with his delivery and he will have major transition going from Iowa Class 1A football to major college football as a QB.  The obvious move for him is to play TE like his father and he’s a good athlete with a solid frame and I think he would be a very good TE.  One thing Iowa fans like to do is forget about the guys on the roster and expect one of these two to be the future at QB for Iowa.  The battle between CJ Beathard and Jake Rudock and the recruiting of two decorated Iowa high school QBs has made fans forget about last years QB recruit Tyler Wiegers.  If there is one thing standing in the way of either of these two playing QB at Iowa it isn’t each other, it’s Wiegers.

Good News Bad News

The Defensive Ends (Anthony Nelson, Brady Reiff and Michael Slater)

DE is a sore spot on the roster much like LB with the exception that Drew Ott and Nate Meier actually contribute as starters as opposed to the LB upperclassmen.  Senior Melvin Spears and junior Daumantas Venckus-Cucchiara are candidates to be asked to move on as they don’t contribute on the field and Iowa may need their scholarships.  The Hawkeyes desperately need contributions from redshirt freshmen Matt Nelson, Terrance Harris and Parker Hesse (Hesse converted from LB to DE in December).  It is possible although unlikely that the three true freshmen will contribute because they all need time to grow.  Anthony Nelson was a late flip from Iowa St. after Iowa finally offered him a scholarship and he could grow into a nice DE but at 6’6 and 210 lbs. he needs to seriously add weight.  Michael Slater is much bigger at 6’3 265 lbs. and he might get a chance if he can pass up any of the redshirt freshmen.  Brady Reiff (yep Riley’s little brother) is also undersized at 6’4 215 lbs. but he is the third early enrollee for the Hawkeyes so if he can add some weight he will have some actual practice time in the spring and might be able to contribute this season but I wouldn’t count on it.  The good news is that the Hawkeyes have done a nice job of getting some DE prospects in the last two classes, the bad news is they need them to make a difference right now and these aren’t really immediate impact guys.

More Good New Bad News

The good news is that the Hawkeyes got a nice TE prospect in Nate Vejvoda, the bad news is that they only got one safety prospect in Michael Ojemudia.

The good news is Vejvoda should have a little time to bulk up before he’s needed, the bad news is that Ojemudia may be needed far too soon.

The good news is Gary Dolphin should have a couple of years to learn to pronounce Vejvoda’s name, the bad news is he may have to learn Ojemudia’s (don’t ask me) way faster than that.

The good news is that the Hawkeyes may have found a diamond in the rough in RB Eric Graham out of Alabama, the bad news is they had to find him late because they lost a very good RB prospect Karan Higdon on signing day to Michigan.

The Bad News (hopefully with a silver lining)

Karan Higdon had been committed to the Hawkeyes for a while and the week before signing day he said he was 110% a Hawkeye.  For those of us that follow recruiting closely this gave us an uneasy feeling because the last time a running back gave that kind of statement was when Melvin Gordon said he was 100% committed to Iowa and then decommitted shortly after that and went on to his stellar career at Wisconsin.  There is a nice symmetry to Gordon leaving Wisconsin for the NFL and now the Hawkeyes will have another Big Ten running back to loathe.  It seemed like a shady deal with Higdon at the end of recruiting as there were reports of a “handler”, for lack of a better term, sending his tape to Michigan and pushing him to visit and then he eventually flipped to the Wolverines.  Iowa doesn’t usually do well with kids that have “handlers” because they don’t play that game but this one stung a little and it won’t soon be forgotten by many Hawkeye fans.  The silver lining might come in the form of Eric Graham a kid from Alabama no one had ever heard of until late in the morning on signing day.  Graham just recently got a qualifying ACT score in December and according to his coach that’s why he wasn’t highly recruited.  He put up insane stats his last two years and his film looks fantastic so it’s hard to believe anything else held him back.  After watching his highlight reels I love the way he runs.  Iowa has been lacking a back that can make one cut and burst through the hole in the zone blocking scheme and that’s exactly what Graham seems to excel at.  I’ll bang the drum on this one more time and say the Hawkeyes have to recognize their playmakers and actually use them, Graham isn’t a top flight, well-regarded recruit but the staff has to give him every opportunity to play because the depth chart at RB needs his skills.

The rest of the bad news on signing day was more about perception than anything else.  Having the Hawkeyes finish 12th or 13th in the recruiting rankings for the Big Ten is a PR blow for a coach and program that needs a shot in the arm.  I’ll be the first to say that many of the 2 star recruits Iowa got I like very much (Graham, Falconer, Jinning and Reiff specifically) but in college football perception is reality.  The reality is that the Hawkeye program is struggling and the perception of the recruiting class is that they are going to continue to struggle if this is the best they can do.  I really like a lot about this recruiting class and surprising I like many of the young players on the roster and I see plenty of potential.  Now if Iowa just had a coaching staff that could get these guys to reach their potential we might get somewhere (I warned you there might be an occasional shot at Ferentz/Davis).