Iowa vs. Iowa St

The Hawkeyes and Cyclones got together for another round of the Cy-Hawk series and the game didn’t disappoint of course for me that’s probably because the Hawkeyes actually pulled out the win.  The 31-17 score wasn’t indicative of how close the game was as the Hawkeyes scored twice late in the 4th quarter to pull out the win.  I’m always happy for a Hawkeye win and even happier when it comes over Iowa St. and while this game had it’s questionable moments it was nice to see the Hawkeyes get over the mental block they seem to have when playing ISU.

The moments that disturbed me the most were the absolutely horrific clock management and fake field goal call at the end of the 1st half.  I’m not against the fake field goal but not after you run the clock down to 1 second and then ask your kicker to run for a 30 yard TD or you get no points.  There are about 10 different scenarios that could have worked to get points and the coaches picked the one that was least likely to succeed, there is a fine line between being unpredictable and being stupid.  The other moment that bothered me most during the game was when the Hawkeyes put Jonathan Parker in and ran the jet sweep.  Parker losing yardage on that play was almost as inevitable as the Hawkeyes running the jet sweep when they put Parker in the game.  There wasn’t a single person in the record breaking crowd at Jack Trice Stadium or watching the game on TV that didn’t know that play was coming.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again I love the speed and playmaking potential that Jonathan Parker brings to the offense but someone on the offensive staff has to figure out a way to get the ball to him that doesn’t involve the words “jet sweep”.  Try a tunnel screen or try one of the many quick flare out passes that they have thrown to Matt Vandeberg to Jonathan Parker instead.  The final thing that made me wonder what the coaching staff is doing was when Desmond King fielded a kickoff that was going out of bounds at about the 2 yard line, it wasn’t quite as idiotic of a play as Parker’s infamous play in the bowl game but it was close.  How have the coaches not taught their kickoff return guys that if a ball is headed out of bounds DO NOT TOUCH IT.  It’s a fairly easy rule to remember.

Parker moved over to WR from RB during spring practice but the coaching staff may have to consider moving him back to RB depending on the health this week of LeShun Daniels.  Daniels sprained his ankle but that isn’t the only hit the RB depth chart took this week.  Derrick Mitchell Jr. has been suspended for a Student Code of Conduct violation, I’m not going to speculate what the issue is but he was 3rd string and after Daniels went down against ISU Jordan Canzeri had to handle all of the workload.  It was pretty obvious the coaches don’t trust Akrum Wadley’s ball security when they wouldn’t even use him when Canzeri looked completely gassed in the second half of the game.  If Daniels can’t go (it’s completely possible that he will) and they don’t have Mitchell and they don’t trust Wadley that leaves redshirt freshman Marcel Joly or true freshman Eric Graham, let’s all cross our fingers that Daniels is fine.

The injury to Drew Ott is far more concerning given the start he got off to this season.  We should find out a little more today from Kirk Ferentz’s press conference but my guess is we won’t know a lot until Saturday night when they line up against Pitt.  Parker Hesse played pretty well given he was thrown into the fire a bit and Matt Nelson will see more playing time in the rotation at DE.  Even if Ott plays Saturday he isn’t likely to be 100% so it would be a good idea to lessen his load by playing Nelson and Hesse more.  Kudos to Nate Meier for picking up the playmaking slack when Ott did go out he really stepped up his play.

CJ Beathard played a fantastic game against the Cyclones and he’ll get tested this weekend even more by a Pitt team being coached by former Michigan St. defensive guru Pat Narduzzi.  Beathard made plays with his arm and his feet and that makes him much more difficult to prepare for from Pitt’s perspective but he needs to keep up his playmaking prowess.  The Hawkeyes did a fantastic job of using Matt Vandeberg in the short passing game over and over again which is what led to him being able to get downfield for his long catch against the Cyclones, at least some evidence that the Hawkeyes are figuring out this offensive play calling thing.  Congrats to Riley McCarron on his TD grab, I’m still not sure how he got open but Beathard threw an unbelievable pass and McCarron made a really nice grab.  Jordan Canzeri carried the load in the second half of the game and luckily for him the Cyclone defense wore down too and he made some plays and didn’t let his fumble get into his head, maybe he could talk to Akrum Wadley about that, then maybe he’d have some help.

In the first half of the game the Iowa defense kept shooting itself in the foot with stupid and untimely penalties that kept Cyclone drives alive.  In the second half they stopped the stupid penalties and shut out the Cyclones.  There is a lesson to be learned there and hopefully they will play more disciplined against Pitt.  Watching the game it was interesting to me that the commentators kept talking about the size and ability of ISU WRs Allen Lazard and D’Vario Montgomery but they really didn’t talk much about how Iowa’s corners did a pretty solid job against them.  Lazard had 7 catches but they didn’t really hurt Iowa and Montgomery only had one catch.

The Cy-Hawk trophy is back where it belongs in Iowa City and the Hawkeyes finally have one of there traveling trophies back (it’s still pretty lonely but 1 is better than none).  Now the two teams get to move on to the rest of their schedule.  The Hawkeyes have a prime time date with Pitt on Saturday and Iowa St. travels to face a Toledo team that just took down Arkansas.  All of the sudden that Toledo game looks a little more daunting but then they Cyclones get Kansas and they need to win that game because then they get 8 straight games where they won’t be favored in any of them, just kidding Clone fans you might be favored over Texas if they keep playing they way they are playing.

NFL Overreaction Week (aka Week 1)

So far what we know about the NFL season is that Peyton Manning’s career is obviously over, the Seahawks are completely finished and stand no chance even within their own division and Johnny Manziel is a terrible QB.  Okay only one of those things is probably true, care to guess which one?  Here’s my Hott Reads on some situations around the league.

• Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos offense looked pretty bad this week but let’s not jump off the cliff just yet.  Manning is running a new offense after running essentially the same offense since Bill Clinton was President (no seriously Clinton was still President that’s how long it’s been).  Watching Manning trying to roll out left and hit a WR over the middle while running was almost painful and expecting Manning to put up big numbers in Gary Kubiak’s offense is crazy.  Kubiak was hired to be the Broncos coach for the long haul and Manning isn’t in this for the long haul so it’s an inconvenient marriage.  The bigger problem is the offensive line in flux and their inability to get things going in the running game to take the pressure off Manning.  Manning will figure it out and hopefully Kubiak will call for less roll outs but the offense should improve.
• Another team that has offensive line problems is the Seahawks and St. Louis’ great defensive line showed teams that that is how you beat Seattle.  QB pressure on Wilson and being able to get to Marshawn Lynch in the backfield helps a lot when defending the Seahawks.  The Seattle defense will keep them in games for the most part but the losses on their offensive line are going to hurt them.
• Johnny Manziel was called upon when Josh McCown suffered a concussion in the Browns game and he came in an threw a beautiful TD pass on his first series.  Then he turned back into a pumpkin and looked horrible during the second half.  Manziel might not be done yet because McCown has to pass concussion protocol before he can return but his future looks pretty bleak.
• Marcus Mariota is being fitted for his gold Hall of Fame jacket as we speak but we may want to put the breaks on for just a minute.  He had a phenomenal first NFL game and that has to feel good for the Titans but I remember a few years ago there was this guy named Robert Griffin III that won Rookie of the Year over another rookie QB named Andrew Luck, who would you rather have right now.  Also Tennessee only has to look at their own history at a guy named Vince Young.  Young won Rookie of the Year too and his career sputtered pretty quickly after that, I’m not saying that kind of fall is going to happen to Mariota I’m just saying let’s give him a little time before we start working on his bronze bust for Canton.
• Many teams looked really good and many teams looked really bad and for most of them it they are probably somewhere in between and for some it was just an aberration (the Colts can’t be that bad).  However two teams looked as good as I thought they would and two teams looked as bad and I think their performances were true to form.  The Rams got solid QB play with great defense and they looked good with out either Todd Gurley or Tre Mason at RB, they could be very good when they get those guys back.  The Bengals played really well on offense and their defense was much improved.  The Browns are sunk as long as Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel are their options at QB and the Buccaneers looked bad because a suspect offensive line played poorly and their defense got destroyed.
• Two major WRs got hurt and both teams hope they are out for just a few weeks.  The Colts lost TY Hilton and after their showing in Week 1 they can’t afford to be without anyone that can help them.  The Cowboys lost Dez Bryant late in their win against the Giants and they made their comeback without him but they hope he’s back sooner rather than later.  They can get by but Devin Street is no Dez Bryant.  Cowboy fans are thanking God for the ageless wonder TE Jason Witten.
• One quick thing about my Predictions thing, I completely forgot to include Carlos Hyde as one of my breakout offensive players, he got off to a heck of a start last night.
• Not an overreaction just a fact: Tom Brady is pissed off and he’s going to take it out on the entire league and he’s going to do it with fully inflated footballs.

Since I did my preview differently this season I didn’t give a very clear indication of where I thought teams would end up so here’s a quick synopsis of how I think each division will play out.

AFC East

1. New England   2. Miami   3. Buffalo   4. New York Jets

Does anyone really want to bet against Tom Brady this season? The Patriots own the division and a pissed off Brady isn’t giving it up. The Dolphins will be improved and will fight for a playoff spot but they won’t overtake New England. Both the Bills and the Jets have good defenses but Buffalo’s is better and I’m going with the unknown QB Tyrod Taylor over the we-know-he-isn’t-good QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

AFC North

1. Cincinnati   2. Baltimore   3. Pittsburgh   4. Cleveland

This is a three team race and not much will separate the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers. Cincinnati has been pretty good in the regular season and I think that continues. The Ravens need some people to step up at WR and TE for Joe Flacco and some young guys on defense have to be as good as the Ravens hope they are (DE Tim Jernigan being a big one). The Steelers offense should be good even without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant to start the year but I’m worried their defense will struggle. The Browns are starting Josh McCown at QB in arguably the toughest division in football, good luck with that Cleveland.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis   2. Houston   3. Jacksonville   4. Tennessee

The Colts are clearly the class of the AFC South and Andrew Luck is going to run roughshod over the entire division. Houston has a tough defense but I’m still not convinced Brian Hoyer is going to make that offense go especially with Arian Foster out of the mix to start the year. Jacksonville could surprise but the offense is still young and the defense needs playmakers especially rushing the passer. Marcus Mariota has Titans’ fans excited but he’ll need help from a less than stellar group on offense around him and the defense is still suspect.

AFC West

1. Denver   2. Kansas City   3. San Diego   4. Oakland

The Chiefs could give the Broncos a run for their money but I think KC will struggle because of a very shaky offensive line. Denver’s offensive line is in a state of flux too but I’ll take Peyton Manning over Alex Smith any day. San Diego has Phillip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen on offense but their defense still needs some work. They need a pass rush to help their DBs or they are going to struggle. Oakland finally has some very nice players like QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper and OLB Khalil Mack but that’s not enough in this division.

Playoff Wildcards: Baltimore and Pittsburgh will edge out Miami and Kansas City for the two Wildcard spots. The Ravens and Steelers are just too consistent and Miami and Kansas City are not quite there yet. Miami is good enough to save Joe Philbin’s job and Kansas City is good enough to stay the course and look for small improvements.

NFC East

1. Dallas   2. Philadelphia   3. New York Giants   4. Washington

The Cowboys are going to miss Demarco Murray but not enough to lose the division to the Eagles. Their pass rush should be much improved and if they can stay healthy on defense (losing Orlando Scandrick isn’t a great start) they will come out on top. Sam Bradford has looked terrific in the preseason and the Eagles entire season will come down to how many games he plays. The Giants offense should be fine if the line can hold up just a little bit but the defense could be ugly. Washington is a disaster and it might remain that way until someone other than Daniel Snyder owns the team and although GM Scot McCloughan does bring some hope Kirk Cousins doesn’t.

NFC North

1. Green Bay   2. Minnesota   3. Detroit   4. Chicago

Even without Jordy Nelson Aaron Rodgers will lead this team to a division title. Detroit has been the biggest threat (although not much of one) but I think Minnesota takes a step up behind the returning Adrian Peterson and the rising Teddy Bridgewater. Detroit takes a step back because of their issues on both the offensive and defensive lines. They didn’t address the offensive line enough and Suh and Fairley were not adequately replaced. Chicago has some nice offensive pieces but the defense will be atrocious.

NFC South

1. Atlanta   2. New Orleans   3. Carolina   4. Tampa Bay

Carolina won this division at 7-8-1 last year so it won’t take much and .500 could take it. The Falcons are still a mess on the offensive line but Dan Quinn should get their defense to be respectable and that’s all Matt Ryan should need to go 8-8. Drew Brees is still fantastic but he needs playmakers like Brandin Cooks and CJ Spiller to really step up because the Saints defense is a work in progress. Carolina is counting on Michael Oher at LT and Devin Funchess to be the top WR so 7-8-1 might be a pipe dream. Jameis Winston is a huge upgrade over Josh McCown and Doug Martin could reemerge at RB but the defense has little pass rush and the offensive line has question marks.

NFC West

1. Seattle   2. St. Louis   3. Arizona   4. San Francisco

What was once the toughest division in football now has reshuffled behind the Seahawks. Seattle is the cream of the crop although their season could implode if their offensive line is as bad as I think it is. I put the Rams second because they have a great defense, a re-formed offensive line, a running game that should be good with Tre Mason and Todd Gurley and all they need is a consistent healthy QB and Nick Foles could be that guy. Arizona’s season rests on the health of Carson Palmer and while their defense will take a step back if Palmer is healthy their offense should thrive. San Francisco is a mess and unless QB Colin Kaepernick morphs into the second coming of Steve Young they are in for a long year.

Playoff Wildcards: St. Louis and Minnesota are the surprise wildcard teams beating out the Eagles. This is the year that St. Louis breaks through on the strength of their defense and the running of Todd Gurley. Nick Foles just has to be a solid threat for that team to have a chance. The last wildcard spot will come down to Chip Kelly’s overhauled Eagles team and the surprising Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater will take a major step forward with Adrian Peterson leading the running game and the Vikings defense will be better than the Eagles which will be the difference.

 

Individual Awards

Most Valuable Player

Top Contenders: QB Aaron Rodgers, DE JJ Watt, QB Andrew Luck, QB Tom Brady, RB Adrian Peterson, QB Tony Romo, QB Ben Roethlisberger

My Dark Horse Candidate: QB Sam Bradford

Going into the season this really looks like a three man race; reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, All-World DE JJ Watt and emerging superstar QB Andrew Luck. Rodgers is the best QB in the league but the gap between him and Luck is closing fast and Watt is such an amazing talent he defies all conventional wisdom and makes a great case for MVP. Tom Brady has a deflated football sized chip on his shoulder and has won 4 Super Bowls so I think he’ll be in the conversation. Adrian Peterson is out to prove he’s still the best RB in the league so 2000 yards isn’t out of the question. Romo is the unsung hero for one of the better offenses in the league and without Demarco Murray around he’ll have to carry more of the burden. Roethlisberger had a fantastic year last year and could repeat it but the Steelers defense may keep the team from being one of the best and while that shouldn’t negate his candidacy in reality it will hurt him. I picked Bradford as my dark horse because if he stays healthy he could put up huge numbers and with that team they could knock off the Cowboys in the division. He has looked great in the preseason and while he’s more likely to win Comeback Player of the Year if he stays healthy MVP isn’t out of the question because he has that kind of talent.

My Pick: QB Andrew Luck

Luck is about to emerge as the best QB in the league. The weapons he has on offense and his talents are a deadly combination. Rodgers is still right there with him but it’s about to become Luck’s league.

Offensive Player of the Year

Andrew Luck wins this with ease. The yards passing and the passing TD records are a possibility for him this year.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: DE JJ Watt, MLB Luke Kuechly, DE Robert Quinn, OLB Justin Houston, DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Mario Williams

My Dark Horse Candidate: OLB Khalil Mack

This is JJ Watt’s award to lose seeing as he has won it 2 out of the last 3 seasons but he did lose it to Luke Kuechly in between his two wins. Kuechly is a tackling machine and he isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon so he’s a strong contender. Quinn wasn’t quite as dominant last season as he was in 2013 but when a 10.5 sack season is a down year your bounce back season could win you this award. Justin Houston’s massive contract from this off season was well earned after he nearly broke the single season sack record last year meaning a repeat performance will get noticed. The Dolphins expect Suh to be in the discussion for this award after paying him a ridiculous sum of money this off season. Mario Williams has been a fantastic player his entire career and he could have a few more great seasons under the tutelage of Rex Ryan. Khalil Mack is a superstar talent and the only thing really holding him back from getting into the conversation for DPOY is the fact that Oakland is unlikely to be all that good and it is the curse both he and Mario Williams will likely have to overcome to win this award.

My Pick: DE Robert Quinn

At this point picking anyone other than Watt seems crazy but to me it just seems too easy. Quinn plays on the best defensive line in football and with the help of DE Chris Long and DTs Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers I think Quinn bounces back to lead the league in sacks and if St. Louis makes the playoffs that could really help his candidacy. One thing that could hold him back is if his line mate Donald steals too many sacks from him, he’s a stud too.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: QB Jameis Winston, QB Marcus Mariota, RB Todd Gurley, RB Melvin Gordon, WR Amari Cooper, WR Nelson Agholor, RB Ameer Abdullah, RB TJ Yeldon

My Dark Horse Candidate: WR Jaelen Strong

I listed Winston and Mariota because as starting QBs from day one if they turn around their teams they will be in the driver’s seat for this award but I don’t think that’s going to be the case. Melvin Gordon has the best shot because he’ll be a high usage rookie for the Chargers and he should put up big numbers. Todd Gurley will start the season on the shelf as he recovers from his torn ACL but his comeback is almost complete and once he takes over as the starter he should dominate. Amari Cooper will be the #1 WR for the Raiders and Derek Carr’s favorite target. Nelson Agholor will have to share Sam Bradford’s attention with Jordan Matthews but he will make some big plays and have plenty of highlights. Ameer Abdullah looks like a good bet to be the Lions’ primary ball carrier as does TJ Yeldon with the Jaguars and both of these players success will be determined by their ability to stay healthy. Jaelen Strong is running behind plenty of veterans with the Texans but Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts are nice players that could be outplayed once Strong gets his footing.

My Pick: WR Amari Cooper

I think Cooper has Pro Bowl ability and while defenses will focus on him he does have Michael Crabtree to take some pressure off of him. Derek Carr knows that Cooper is a special weapon and having a defense focus on him has never slowed Cooper before.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Vic Beasley, S Landon Collins, DE Leonard Williams, CB Marcus Peters, DE Randy Gregory, LB Stephone Anthony

My Dark Horse Candidate: LB Eric Kendricks

Vic Beasley is the pass rusher the Falcons have been missing for years and he should be a major playmaker for Dan Quinn’s defense. Landon Collins is the last line of defense for the Giants and while he is just a rookie they need him to play like a seasoned veteran because they don’t have much else at the position. Leonard Williams might be the most talented defensive rookie in this class and with Sheldon Richardson starting the season suspended Williams will shine. Marcus Peters will also get an early opportunity to shine with Sean Smith suspended to start the year. Peters is a true cover corner and he’s a rising star. Randy Gregory is a backup at the moment but he should be a pass rushing specialist and he could put up some sack numbers that get him noticed. Stephone Anthony is going to rack up tackle after tackle starting in the middle of the Saints defense, if he can make some big plays happen he’ll get noticed. Eric Kendricks isn’t even a starter for the Vikings as veteran Audie Cole will begin the season in the middle but Cole is limited and Kendricks could eventually take the job and he’ll excel.

My Pick: CB Marcus Peters

Peters is a special player that will shine in his time replacing the suspended Sean Smith and when Smith returns they will pair up and be one of the best CB duos in the league. Peters has the ability to be one of the best cover corners in the entire NFL and he should make enough plays to get noticed and win this award.

Hott Read Thoughts

• There were a number of interesting moves at the end of the preseason and contrary to ESPN belief the cutting of Tim Tebow was not one of them. The media’s Tebow obsession is bordering on insane. The trading of RBs Terrance West to the Titans and Christine Michael to the Cowboys could have an effect down the line. The Titans have Bishop Sankey and some niche runners while the Cowboys have Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden who underwhelmed in the preseason. The Titans put David Cobb on IR otherwise he would have been my Offensive Rookie of the Year Dark Horse Candidate. Also the Bears cut starting RT Jordan Mills at the end of the preseason and it looks like RG Kyle Long is moving to RT, that’s interesting.
• There are three interesting coaching situations to watch during the season and those are Jay Gruden in Washington, Mike Pettine in Cleveland and Jim Tomsula in San Francisco. Gruden is on borrowed time and if the Kirk Cousins gambit doesn’t pay big dividends Gruden won’t make it through the year (so Gruden won’t make it through the year). Pettine is banking on a suspect running game, a journeyman QB and a hopefully improved defense. He needs a rabbit’s foot, a four leaf clover and a lucky penny. Tomsula is by all accounts a great guy and a good coach but he may not be ready to handle this franchise at this moment. The 49ers are in for a long year.
• I think the Dolphins are good enough this year to save Joe Philbin’s job. And the Jaguars are good enough to save Gus Bradley.
• Breakout players for this season: On offense-WR Devante Adams, RB Jeremy Hill, WR Jarvis Landry and WR Amari Cooper. I made my feelings about Cooper pretty clear in the Rookie of the Year section, he’s special. Adams production will skyrocket because someone has to replace the production of Jordy Nelson and Adams becomes one of Aaron Rodgers top targets, good gig if you can get it. Jeremy Hill is a dark horse to lead the league in rushing (or at least finish second to Peterson). The Bengals know they can’t let their season rest on the arm of Andy Dalton so Hill will get a lot of carries. Jarvis Landry stepped up last year once he got a chance and this year he will be Ryan Tannehill’s security blanket and he’ll easily pass 100 catches. On Defense- DT Aaron Donald, LB Jamie Collins, DE Ziggy Ansah, CB Desmond Trufant. Donald is a disruptive force who had a very good rookie year and he’s only going to get better. Collins stepped up big in the playoffs for the Patriots last year after some injuries started to pile up. Belichick likes him and he’ll get even more responsibility this season. Ansah is going to be asked to do more this year and after having 7.5 sacks I think he’s poised to go get 12-15 this year. Desmond Trufant is still one of my favorite cover corners in the league even though he struggled at times last year. The Falcons had virtually no pass rush and even the best CB can cover a receiver all day. With Vic Beasley bringing the pressure, along with some other veterans, Trufant’s job gets easier and he will shine.
• It’s amazing to me that what used to be the safest position to draft early, offensive tackle, has become almost as big a crapshoot as drafting QBs. The first round picks since 2011 that have struggled are Matt Kalil, Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, DJ Fluker, Justin Pugh, Jake Matthews, James Carpenter, Derek Sherrod and Gabe Carimi. Greg Robinson, Ja’Wuan James and Lane Johnson are fine and could get better. Nate Solder, Anthony Castonzo and Riley Reiff have established themselves as solid starters. Taylor Lewan showed promise in his rookie year and only Tyron Smith has shown to be an elite level left tackle. Eric Fisher was the #1 overall pick and he just got moved to RT. James Carpenter and Justin Pugh have moved to guard and DJ Fluker probably should. Derek Sherrod and Gabe Carimi are basically done in the NFL. It used to be if you wanted a safe 1^st round pick you go with an OT, not any more.
• The first week of the college season wasn’t great for some of the bigger names for the 2016 draft. OSU DE Joey Bosa sat out due to a suspension and OSU didn’t miss a beat. Bosa is still the odds-on favorite to go #1 because no QBs stepped into the spot. His teammate Cardale Jones still has a ways to go to convince me he’s worth the #1 overall spot. Penn St. QB Christian Hackenberg was terrible in an embarrassing loss to Temple and he shouldn’t even be thinking about the 2016 draft right now.
• I don’t do early mock drafts like some websites do but if everyone that does do them didn’t change their 2018 #1 overall selection to UCLA QB Josh Rosen after the first week they are crazy. 2018 is a long way off but that kid looks like the next Andrew Luck.
• If Iowa DE Drew Ott can play like he did the opening weekend of the season he’s going to fly up draft boards.

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve said before that the only way for the Iowa Hawkeyes to get better was to change their ways and I didn’t believe that that was possible under Kirk Ferentz because all evidence I’ve seen said so.  I’m not convinced that yesterday’s destruction of Illinois St. was absolute proof that things have changed but all I’ve asked for is for Ferentz to show us all that things are different and not just talk about.  There were so many positives in yesterday’s game it’s tough not to get at least a little excited that things could go well this season but there are still a few things that temper my expectations.

The first major thing people want to talk about is the QB change and CJ Beathard had a nice game against the Redbirds and while I’m not about to anoint him the second coming of Chuck Long like some he was a nice improvement.  The one thing that Beathard did that made a huge difference was his decisiveness with the football.  On short throws to WRs or RBs in the flat timing is everything and Beathard recognized who was open quickly, decided which player to go to and delivered the ball quickly and without hesitation.  He did this several times to WR Matt Vandeberg and RB Jordan Canzeri and getting the ball in the hands as quickly as possible is a key to them having a chance to make a play.  Beathard wasn’t perfect and he missed the only deep throws he tried but the offense was able to sustain drives, wear out the defense and convert on third and fourth down when it counted.  He also did a nice job using his legs to gain yards, buy time and keep the chains moving.

The biggest difference in the offense overall was the proper usage of the players and their abilities.  The first of these was RB LeShun Daniels who brings the same power to the position as Mark Weisman did but has far more burst and much better patience and both showed yesterday.  Daniels is the type of RB that punishes defenders when he hits them, frustrates them because he’s tough to bring down yet has enough burst through the hole that he catches them off guard with his speed.  He wore down the Redbirds defense and while they became more fatigued as the game went on he just got stronger.  The Hawkeyes also found that Jordan Canzeri is the perfect complementary back to Daniels and his usage was exceptional.  Canzeri only carried the ball 5 times but he added 4 catches and he made the most of his touches and perhaps he should get a few more of each but 5-7 carries and 5-7 catches is about right.  The Hawkeyes need to keep Canzeri healthy and effective in his role because he keeps the defense guessing.  Using Canzeri a couple of times to run up the middle, a few times running to the edge and four times catching the ball out the backfield means the defense has to prepare for all of those things when he enters the game.  When your personnel doesn’t give away your play call (we didn’t see Jonathan Parker running the jet sweep at all yesterday) it makes life fa more difficult for the defense.

Only three WRs caught passes yesterday as the Hawkeyes did most of their damage in the running game and they need to get some more guys involved (TE George Kittle and WRs Jerminic Smith and Adrian Falconer for starters) but the way they used Tevaun Smith, Matt Vandeberg and Jacob Hillyer was far better than anything they did last season.  Smith only had 3 catches but they were important catches especially the one on 4th down.  The fact that Iowa went with a passing play on 4th and short is in and of itself noteworthy but CJ Beathard was smart enough to go to his best WR and the play call put Smith in a great position to make the play.  He needs to be more involved in the offense but yesterday’s game didn’t really require a lot from him as the team dominated in other ways.  Iowa finally took advantage of the skills Matt Vandeberg does possess instead of asking him to do things he is ill-suited for.  Vandeberg has a quick burst and decisiveness and throwing the quick out to him worked well against a Illinois St. team that doesn’t have the outside speed to close quickly on him.  This is a far better use of him than trying to have him run go routes down the field and catch long passes with a CB or safety draped all over him.  Jacob Hillyer is the big, tall WR and while he only had two catches they went for 18 and 20 yards so they used him to stretch the field a bit and that’s how you should use your bigger WR.

The Iowa offensive line had a distinct size advantage over their FCS opponent but they did the work to make it count.  Illinois St. DE Teddy Corwin is a pretty good player and Boone Myers and the rest of the line neutralized him to the point where he was a non-factor.  They dominated in the run game and while they will have to step up as their opponents get tougher this game served as a nice confidence boost to start the season.  Two notes on the offensive line; 1. C Austin Blythe is as good as advertised and he’s going to have a great year and 2. True Freshman OG James Daniels (LeShun Daniels “little” brother) played at the end of the game and he’s going to be special.

The defense absolutely destroyed Illinois St.’s offense and while I would usually be loath to give credit to one player it’s hard not to give most of the credit to senior DE Drew Ott.  QB Tre Roberson left yesterday’s game with a 95 tattoo on his body after Ott relentlessly hit and harassed him.  Ott only recorded two sacks but that doesn’t even come close to telling the story of his dominance.  Truthfully the entire defensive line deserves the credit but Ott was the star.  While most people knew Ott was in for a great year DT Jaleel Johnson was the guy being asked to step into the rather large shoes of DT Carl Davis (now a Baltimore Raven) and he didn’t just fill in he had a breakout game.  Johnson recorded a sack but he did far more than that as he was the major reason why the Redbirds running game was non-existent.  RB Marshaun Coprich is no slouch but he couldn’t get anything going and only had 32 yards rushing on 13 attempts.  Johnson spent almost as much time in the Redbirds backfield as Coprich did.  The attention they had to pay to Drew Ott on the outside helped Johnson get free on the inside and when they tried to concentrate on both of them DE Nate Meier took advantage too.  When the entire defensive line (new DT Nathan Bazata played pretty well too) dominates the rest of the defense’s jobs get a lot easier.  CB Greg Mabin got a lot of work yesterday and he really played well but one thing that fails to get mentioned during TV broadcasts is that one of the reasons Mabin had so many opportunities to make plays was because QBs Tre Roberson and Jake Kolbe were smart enough to avoid throwing towards Desmond King’s side of the defense.

While I am very happy with the way the Hawkeyes played and the fact that the actually beat an FCS opponent the way they should beat an FCS opponent there are still a few things to fix over the next couple of weeks especially before the Big Ten schedule starts.  On offense the team has to find a way to stretch the field in the passing game.  Tevaun Smith has to get open down the field because averaging 8.0 yards per catch like he did in the Illinois St. game is not going to get it done.  Whether they need to get the freshmen Jerminic Smith and Adrian Falconer on the field to do it it has to be done.  Running every play within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage makes life a lot easier on your opponents and makes it much tougher on your running game.  I realize the team is missing a major playmaking component of their offense without TE Jake Duzey but they need to use George Kittle and even possibly get TE Jameer Outsey some early playing time to see if they can get something going over the middle.  My friend Bill pointed out one thing to me that I completely agree with and we both agree it is nitpicking the play calling but worth mentioning the last QB sneak TD by Beathard should have been a hand off to LeShun Daniels to get him a TD after he put in such a great performance all day.  If you’re going to give a guy 26 carries in a game and he’s going to average nearly 5 yards a carry and his backup got an easy short TD earlier in the game you should throw the guy a bone in the fourth quarter.  He did the lion’s share of the work for the day but you don’t let him run it in from a couple yards out?  Daniels deserved a little glory.

A few notes.

• 3rd string RB Derrick Mitchell didn’t see action in the game because he was a little dinged up and the coaches wanted to let him heal up a little more.  Akrum Wadley, who played last year but had been passed up in the off season by Mitchell, stepped in when the game was well within hand and promptly showed why Mitchell is ahead of him.  Wadley had fumbling issues last year and he fumbled on his second carry of the game.  Something tells me Mitchell will be just fine from now on and Wadley is about to enter the witness protection program, meaning he’ll never be heard from again.
• Three true freshmen played; WR Jerminic Smith and OG James Daniels we knew would play because Ferentz said so last week.  Falconer was a bit of a surprise but not completely surprising given the fact that the WR group needs playmakers.
• As I suspected Miles Taylor and Jordan Lomax make a much better safety tandem than Lomax and Lowdermilk did as both of them were flying all over the field.  Neither is afraid to hit or to cover and while Taylor had a bad missed tackle on a running back early on that wasn’t indicative of his overall play.
• The LBs played pretty well overall although life is a lot easier for LBs when the defensive line is owning the offensive line.
• Desmond King is a special talent at CB and you won’t hear his name called a lot because no one is going to be dumb enough to throw at him this year.  He also did an excellent job at punt returning, I don’t remember him fair catching anything and that’s a start.
• The Hawkeye punting game wasn’t used a lot yesterday but when it was…it wasn’t pretty.
• K Marshall Koehn might hit someone in the front row behind the end zone (or the fourth row), they should consider lifting the net they put up for field goals just for safety sake.  Our kickoff coverage team is just running wind sprints at this point.  If Koehn has a consistent year at FGs he’ll be kicking in the NFL next year (if anyone had uttered that sentence at this time last year they would be laughed out of the room, oh how things can change).  Also you have to love the fact that he came up 2 yards short of a first down on a fake field goal attempt and basically got a standing ovation because the crowd was so stunned the Hawkeyes called for a fake field goal.  He was part of the most popular turnover on downs ever.
• Two fifth year seniors that played well and I hope have good years.  OG Jordan Walsh looked pretty solid and after a couple of inconsistent seasons hopefully he can have the Matt Tobin-like senior year I mentioned in my preview.  WLB Cole Fisher has been a backup his whole career and played special teams and he never complained, never threatened to quit and never looked to transfer and yesterday he started and led the team in tackles.  He may be from Nebraska but that kid is all Hawkeye.
• Final Note: None of this matters if the Hawkeyes can’t get over their mental block when it comes to playing the Cyclones next Saturday.  The game is on the road but the Hawkeyes need to get the win, not because beating Iowa St will mean anything overall but because they need the mental health it will provide for the rest of the year.

Teams Set at QB for the Future

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are comfortable going forward with Ryan Tannehill and while he isn’t in the upper echelon of QBs he is a young player that had a good season last year and could do even better as the talent around him improves. After throwing for over 4,000 yards and 27 TDs the Dolphins decided to remake Tannehill’s pass catching group. WR Jarvis Landry is the only real holdover as veterans Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills were added at WR along with rookie DeVante Parker and Jordan Cameron replaces Charles Clay at TE. This is an upgrade and Tannehill could really break out this year with this group. The one thing that could hold this offense back is the offensive line. They need LT Branden Albert to stay healthy so Ja’Waun James can stay at RT where he could excel and they need to get better play from their OGs.

The Dolphins’ defense got a major upgrade in the middle with DT Ndamukong Suh and he should team with DT Earl Mitchell and DEs Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to form a very good defensive line. Suh and Wake will cause headaches for every offensive coordinator they face. The LB corps was terrible last year and they finally cut bait with free agent busts Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler and they move Koa Misi to MLB hoping the changes provide better results. They are hoping Brent Grimes can squeeze one more good season out of his 32 year old body and that either Will Davis or Jamar Taylor can step up on the opposite side.

Biggest Off Season Move: Signing DT Ndamukong Suh

Bringing in the biggest free agent of the off season has rarely been the best move for any team as it usually just means you spent a lot of money on a guy that needs to fit into your team. Suh is an absolute beast and paired with Cameron Wake on the outside they will create major problems for every opponent. He can basically do everything well so while he was a very costly addition the Dolphins were in a position to make a move and really help their team so it was and understandable expense.

Player to Watch: WR Jarvis Landry

Landry caught a lot of passes last year for not a lot of yards and only 5 TDs but this season he is Tannehill’s only returning receiving threat. He played great out of the slot and became Tannehill’s security blanket, evidenced by his short 9 yards/ catch average. Tannehill should be most comfortable with Landry and while he may still catch a lot of short passes he really didn’t get a lot of playing time early last year so over an entire season he should really excel.

Sleeper of the Season: WR DeVante Parker

Parker had foot surgery this summer and just recently was taken off the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. He won’t be ready to start the season but I think he could be this year’s Odell Beckham, a rookie that misses the beginning of the season but once he’s ready to contribute he will explode. Parker may not make the same crazy catches like Beckham but he’s a superior talent and while Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills are veterans Jennings is past his prime and Stills lacks Parker’s overall talent. Landry will dominate in the slot but the team will need a better deep threat than Stills or Jennings outside and Parker will flourish there.

Atlanta Falcons

Whether you love him or are indifferent to him the Falcons are going with Matt Ryan at QB and he’s been pretty solid. He hasn’t been the problem on the offense that has been the offensive line and the running backs and staying healthy and replacing Tony Gonzalez, yeah they have had their issues. Ryan has a superstar WR Julio Jones that the Falcons just gave a major five year extension to and that’s a nice start. WR Roddy White isn’t getting any younger and injuries are starting to affect his ability not only to be a difference maker but also just getting on the field. They moved on from RB Steven Jackson and it’s a battle of the hamstring injuries between Devonta Freeman and rookie Tevin Coleman. Freeman has the experience (although not that much) but Coleman has the skill set to be huge in new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The signing of veteran TE Jacob Tamme was a sneaky good addition because Ryan needs a good TE as a safety net. The offensive line hasn’t been good the last few years and they didn’t really add any help so that could hinder any offensive improvement.

The Falcons’ defense has been terrible and the team brought in Dan Quinn and a number of veterans and a playmaking rookie to help rescue it. DL Adrian Clayborn, LBs Justin Durant, Brooks Reed and O’Brien Schofield and rookie DE Vic Beasley are being tasked with turning around a front seven that wasn’t very good. Beasley should bring a lot of pressure even if he only plays on passing downs and Clayborn, Reed and Schofield can also get to the QB. CBs Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford struggled at times last year and that had a lot to do with having to cover all day and they will benefit from more pressure up front and rookie CB Jalen Collins should also help out. The LB corps was completely overhauled as Paul Worrilow takes over in the middle and newcomers Reed and Durant flank him.

Biggest Off Season Move: Hiring Dan Quinn as the new head coach

Mike Smith was one of the more successful coaches in Falcons’ history but he just couldn’t get them past being just a playoff team and then when the team fell apart last season it was time for a change. Quinn was the architect of the Seattle Seahawks defense the past couple years and the Falcons wanted him so much they waited until after the Super Bowl to finally hire him. He has a herculean task in fixing a Falcons’ defense that has been bad for a number of years and hasn’t had a decent pass rush since John Abraham was a star. He is also transitioning the team back to a 4-3 alignment after the ill-advised switch to a 3-4 was a disaster.

Player to Watch: RB Tevin Coleman

Davonte Freeman is a solid back but Coleman fits Shanahan’s scheme and he’s a game breaker that could take a lot of pressure off of QB Matt Ryan. Coleman is used to running behind suspect offensive lines and making big plays anyway because that’s what he did his entire college career at Indiana. Once he gets over his hamstring injury, and I think he’s crazy for trying to play through it, he will seize the starting job and be a major upgrade at the position.

Sleeper of the Season: WR Justin Hardy

Julio Jones is the big dog at WR and that isn’t a question but after him things get murky. Roddy White has been a mainstay but he’s 33 years old and questionable to start the year. Veteran free agent Leonard Hankerson was signed from Washington but he’s never been a consistent contributor. Devin Hester is 32 and has never excelled as a WR. The team lost slot receiver Harry Douglas to free agency which means they need someone to step up there and possibly to replace White. Hardy caught everything at East Carolina even though every opponent knew he was the go-to WR. He can be a perfect complement to Jones’ downfield big play ability and he will be a reliable target for Ryan.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are locked into Matthew Stafford at QB and he is just entering his prime years with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate as his primary weapons. Tate had a very good year as Megatron was never really himself and Stafford finally found someone else that could play. The rest of the offense has its question marks with the offensive line needing a RT, TE needing Eric Ebron to rebound from a disappointing rookie year and the running game looking to rookie Ameer Abdullah for a shot in the arm. Rookie OG Laken Tomlinson should also help clear the way for a better running attack. If Calvin Johnson can get back to being his dominant self this offense has potential.

The defense is dealing with the loss of free agent DTs Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley and while Haloti Ngata isn’t a long term solution he fills a major need for now. Tyrunn Walker was a solid addition at DT too and Ezekiel Ansah could break out after a solid year at DE. The LB corps will be pleased to get MLB Stephen Tulloch back after he missed almost all of last season but unfortunately they still won’t get back Kyle Van Noy as he is fighting an injury again. They did well extending the contract of OLB DeAndre Levy because he has been an underrated player and is a steadying presence. CB Darius Slay stepped up big time last season and assumed the #1 CB spot while Rashean Mathis continues to fight off father time and the Lions refuse to find a replacement. The drafting of CBs Alex Carter and Quandre Diggs adds some depth but one of them will have to take a big leap to replace Mathis.

Biggest Off Season Move: Losing DT Ndamukong Suh in free agency

Suh is a destructive force on the field and the Lions will miss that but his contract was cost prohibitive and the Lions couldn’t afford to keep him around. They made a trade to bring in Haloti Ngata from Baltimore and he’ll hold the fort for now but they will have to look for long term solutions at DT soon.

Player to Watch: RB Ameer Abdullah

I am admittedly not Abdullah’s biggest fan but he seems to have taken control of the RB position and he does have skills. He’s an all-around back although I question if he can hold up to the rigors of the NFL. At Nebraska he seemed to have a habit of going out of the game with an injury only to return a short time later and he would do this repeatedly. If he got nicked up that many times in college he’ll spend a lot more time on the sidelines in the NFL. He could be a huge key to the season as the Lions’ running game has been pretty hit-or-miss throughout Stafford’s tenure.

Sleeper of the Season: OLB Kyle Van Noy

He missed half of last season with a hernia and was never quite healthy and now he’s fighting injury again so it’s tough to see him making a big difference. However, if Van Noy can get healthy the only thing standing between him and playing time is Tahir Whitehead and while he’s alright he is nowhere near the playmaker Van Noy could be.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were unlucky enough to win their division while only finishing 7-9. I say unlucky because it caused them to pick lower in the draft where the otherwise could have gotten franchise QB Cam Newton some real help. The team desperately needs help on the offensive line, especially at OT and at WR, especially now that Kelvin Benjamin is injured. They can talk all they want about how much they love Devin Funchess but they really could have used one of the top WR prospects. The offensive line is counting on Michael Oher at LT and Mike Remmers at RT and that should concern everyone especially Cam Newton. Funchess and Corey Brown are penciled in to start at WR and Brown has had a really rough preseason. TE Greg Olsen is the only pass catching threat Newton has at the moment. RB Jonathan Stewart is finally the unquestioned starter now the DeAngelo Williams is gone but what will the Panthers do for the four or five games Stewart is injured.

Ron Rivera and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott have done a fantastic job even after losing DE Greg Hardy last year to a “roster exemption” because of his domestic violence incident. This year starting DE Frank Alexander went down with a season ending injury already and they need Kony Ealy to step up. Second year DTs Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short form a fantastic inside duo that frees DE Charles Johnson up on the outside. MLB Luke Kuechly and OLB Thomas Davis are the dynamic duo and while AJ Klein might hold down the other spot rookie Shaq Thompson could take it away. The secondary added CB Charles Tillman for a veteran presence but they need more talent to get better.

Biggest Off Season Move: Signing Michael Oher and thinking he can play LT

When Jordan Gross retired after the 2013 season the Panthers decided to replace him with Byron Bell and he was ill-suited for the job and now he’s playing guard in Tennessee. The Panthers decided to double down on ill-suited left tackles and they signed Michael Oher who has struggled to even play right tackle very well in the NFL. Oher signed a big contract a year ago to be the Titans RT but they cut him after a year and now the Panthers are going to line him up on the left side (I refuse to use Michael Oher and blind side together in a sentence, per Oher’s wishes).

Player to Watch: RB Cameron Artis-Payne

Jonathan Stewart has always been a tease with his size, speed and vision and people have always blamed his lack of breakout numbers on sharing his workload with DeAngelo Williams but I think Stewart is just good enough to not be replaced but he isn’t elite. He also has a tendency to get banged up and so the Panthers will need someone to start four or five games. There is a reason why Fozzy Whitaker and Jordan Todman aren’t NFL starters and Artis-Payne has the ability to step in when Stewart is unavailable.

Sleeper of the Season: DE Kony Ealy

Ealy was the less talked about Missouri DE in the 2014 draft but he was the better prospect. Greg Hardy and Frank Alexander were supposed to be ahead of him last year and now that Hardy is in Dallas and Alexander is on IR Ealy is going to get a chance to play. He isn’t the speed rusher teams dream about but he can hold his own and I think he’ll play well especially since the other three guys on the defensive line will command great attention.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens signed Joe Flacco to a massive contract after they won the Super Bowl a couple years ago so they are set at QB. They also have one of the best offensive lines in football led by arguably the best lineman in football RG Marshall Yanda. Yanda even stepped in at RT last season when Ricky Wagner was injured and they didn’t miss a beat. RB Justin Forsett can thank that offensive line for his breakout year running the ball and his new contract with the team. The passing game is in a state of flux as Flacco’s weapons change. WR Steve Smith came over last year and he says this is it for him, Torrey Smith left for a big contract in San Francisco and the Ravens replaced him with rookie Breshad Perriman (a workout warrior if nothing else). TE Dennis Pitta is injured again so holdover Crockett Gillmore and rookie Maxx Williams will be counted on to contribute.

The Ravens defense has always been their calling card and this season shouldn’t be any different but they are starting to replace the old parts with new ones. NT Brandon Williams stepped up last season and they are expecting DE Timmy Jernigan to replace Haloti Ngata this season. They drafted DL Carl Davis with an eye towards replacing aging DE Chris Canty eventually. ILB CJ Mosley stepped in as a rookie last year and was very good but they need to look at younger replacements for ILB Daryl Smith and OLBs Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs. They drafted Za’Darius Smith out of Kentucky hoping he can fill the role vacated by Pernell McPhee and potentially replace either Dumervil or Suggs in the future. Free safety Kendrick Lewis was signed last year and strong safety Will Hill replaced the ineffective Matt Elam and he played very well. The CBs just need to be healthy as they both (Ladarius Webb and Jimmy Smith) should be in their prime.

Biggest Off Season Move: Replacing DE Haloti Ngata and WR Torrey Smith with Timmy Jernigan and Breshad Perriman

The team moved on from Ngata because defensive linemen over 30 have a short shelf life and the Ravens have always been willing to look to the next guy. Jernigan was drafted last year and showed them enough to think he can handle the job. Smith was a free agent that the team knew would get a big enough offer that they wouldn’t want to match. The Ravens know the value of a player like Smith and knew they could replace him. Perriman was a workout star and his blazing speed will fill Torrey Smith’s role just as soon as he is healthy enough.

Player to Watch: OLB Terrell Suggs

Suggs replaced Ray Lewis as the leader of the Ravens defense after Lewis retired and while Suggs was still an affective pass rusher last season the end is coming sooner rather than later for him. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the defense but they need other playmakers to step up to give him a hand and they have to hope Za’Darius Smith can rotate in for both Suggs and Dumervil to keep them fresh.

Sleeper of the Season: TE Maxx Williams

Joe Flacco has always liked a good pass catching TE and he’s really missed Dennis Pitta the last couple of years as he has been out with multiple hip injuries. Crockett Gillmore is listed as the starter but Maxx Williams brings a nice skill set to the table and I think he’ll become Flacco’s security blanket. A good TE can be a QB’s best friend.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson has led the Seahawks to one Super Bowl title and one Super Bowl loss in his three years in the league and while you can make a case he wasn’t the driving force you can’t let a QB that has done that get away. Wilson has Marshawn Lynch carrying the load on offense but he fits what Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Derrell Bevell want to do so his contract extension while expensive was understandable. The team has gotten along without great playmakers in the passing game but it came back to haunt them in the Super Bowl so they traded their starting center Max Unger and a 1^st round pick for TE Jimmy Graham. Graham gives them a great target especially in the red zone but they are still going with Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Richardo Lockette and rookie Tyler Lockett at WR so Wilson will have to make plays. He will likely also have to rely on his legs a bit more as the offensive line is in major transition. LT Russell Okung is the only sure then in front of Wilson and that could affect the passing game but more importantly could disrupt their formidable running game. Marshawn Lynch’s “Beastmode” won’t work as well if the blocking up front is suspect.

Pete Carroll has built the Seahawks into one of the most impressive defensive teams in the league and they have sustained it through Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn as the coordinators and now it’s up to former DB coach Kris Richard to carry on. The Legion of Boom (the secondary) has lost guys like Brandon Browner, Walter Thurmond III and Byron Maxwell the last two years and they are counting on Tharold Simon and newcomer Cary Williams to step up beside star Richard Sherman. The holdout of SS Kam Chancellor could really affect the play of the unit overall. DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril bring pressure as does OLB Bruce Irvin and MLB Bobby Wagner is the unsung hero of the group.

Biggest Off Season Move: Trading for TE Jimmy Graham

Giving up their starting center and a first round pick could come back to haunt this team even if Jimmy Graham is as good in Seattle playing with Russell Wilson as he was in New Orleans playing with Drew Brees. Seattle gave up a pretty good center in Unger and a draft pick they could have used to get a WR or more help on the line for a TE that won’t help their run blocking.

Player to Watch: TE Jimmy Graham

Graham is a fantastic pass catching TE and he gives the Seahawks a major red zone weapon and a guy that will command attention in the passing game. He cost this team quite a bit in a trade so the pressure is on and he doesn’t have the same type of passing offense in Seattle that he had in New Orleans where guys like Marques Colston and other WRs took focus away from him. The Seahawks still don’t have a true #1 WR and Russell Wilson is not Drew Brees throwing the ball.

Sleeper of the Season: Rookie WR Tyler Lockett

Lockett is a playmaker and he will make the team’s roster simply because he’s an excellent return man. The Seahawks WR depth chart is far from formidable so he could make a move. Richardo Lockette and Chris Matthews both played in the Super Bowl but they are far from sure things at this point. After Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse no one is a safe bet.

Indianapolis Colts

No team in the league is as set for the present and the future at QB as the Colts. Andrew Luck is 25 years old, a Pro Bowl player, a threat to win the MVP award and he took his team to the AFC Championship game last season. He threw for over 4700 yards and had 40 TDs to 16 INTs those are incredible numbers that he could actually surpass this year. No team has the depth of weapons the Colts offer Luck this year either. WRs TY Hilton, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett and Duron Carter are the most impressive collection of WRs 1-5 in the league. TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are two very good players that make Luck’s life easier. RB Frank Gore was brought in to solidify the running game and they hope Vick Ballard can return to health to give them depth. The biggest issue facing the Colts offense is the line protecting Luck. LT Anthony Costanzo is solid but they need new RG Todd Herremans and new RT Jack Mewhort to play very well. Lance Louis and Khaled Holmes are slated to be the starting LG and C and they are fine but not great players.

The defense needs either a couple of old war horses to step up or a couple of young bucks to do it. The defensive line is solid with DEs Kendall Langford and Arthur Jones flanking behemoth NT Josh Chapman but they don’t make a lot of plays so it falls on the LBs. OLB Robert Mathis isn’t young and he’s coming off a torn Achilles tendon and OLB Trent Cole just came over from Philadelphia. Young OLB Bjoern Werner needs to step up and former free agent signee Erik Walden needs to make more plays. The secondary was surprisingly good as Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler make a very solid group at CB. The safeties aren’t great but they got they are veterans.

Biggest Off Season Move: Signing veterans RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson

The team went through a number of running backs last year and they needed some consistency at the position and consistent is Gore’s middle name. He’s been a stalwart in San Francisco and he’ll have a nice end to his career in Indy. Johnson comes in to replace long time Colt Reggie Wayne and while he isn’t a top WR anymore he is a perfect veteran complement to young star TY Hilton. Johnson gets to play with Andrew Luck and finally gets to play with a top notch QB.

Player to Watch: WR Donte Moncrief

Last year the Colts needed a WR to step up opposite TY Hilton when Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne were out and Moncrief did a nice job. He is fighting off Phillip Dorsett and Duron Carter for the third WR spot behind Hilton and Johnson but he showed he can handle the role. Moncrief is the best bet to be a consistent playmaker after Hilton and he doesn’t have to transition like Johnson does.

Sleeper of the Season: WR Duron Carter

Duron Carter is the son of Vikings legend Cris Carter and his career path has been anything but easy. He went to multiple colleges and never really accomplished much at any of them because of his off the field issues. He didn’t get drafted several years ago when he was eligible and he spent some time in the Canadian Football League. He dominated the CFL last year and the Colts signed him before they signed Andre Johnson or drafted Phillip Dorsett and now he has to fight for playing time. He has speed and big play potential and he has great size at 6’5 205 lbs. He could break out if he gets enough playing time.

Green Bay Packers

The only team in the league with a better QB than Indianapolis is Green Bay with reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers but the Colts are in a slightly better overall position because Luck is almost as good and six years younger. Rodgers has plenty of time left and he is at the top of his game now which makes the Packers one of the best teams in the league no matter what. The offense rolls right along with Rodgers at the controls and Eddie Lacy toting the rock. Lacy is the type of big back that has become the norm in the league and pounds defenses into submission. The Packers had one of the best WR corps until top WR Jordy Nelson went down with a torn ACL. The Packers will be fine but it means Randall Cobb and Devante Adams have to step up into more prominent roles. The offensive line is talented but thin and injuries could take a toll.

The Packers defense is led by the pass rush of LBs Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers and they need some others to step up either inside (Carl Bradford or Jake Ryan) or outside (Nick Perry). The defensive line is pretty good but it’s not deep. DEs Mike Daniels and Datone Jones do their jobs well and the return of a healthy BJ Raji helps since Letroy Guion is suspended for the first three games. CBs Sam Shields and Casey Hayward are pretty good but they need rookies Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins to add quality depth. Safeties Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix form a pretty nice pair and Micah Hyde can play just about anywhere in the secondary.

Biggest Off Season Move: Not addressing their needs at LB

To me this could be a move that comes back to haunt them because they need have Clay Matthews free to rush the QB and if he’s playing ILB it limits his options. I’m not sure rookie Jake Ryan is much of an answer and while I like Carl Bradford they need more help than that. They resigned RT Bryan Bulaga and WR Jordy Nelson and those were great moves but sometimes it’s the ones you don’t make that matter most.

Player to Watch: WR Devante Adams

I love Adams and what he brings and with Nelson out for the year with a torn ACL they are going to need someone to replace his production. Randall Cobb obviously is a top notch WR and he becomes Rodgers’ favorite target but he had 91 receptions last year so asking for much more is unfair. Adams had 38 receptions and he is capable of producing much more and if he goes for 90 catches I won’t be surprised.

Sleeper of the Season: WR Jeff Janis

If Adams steps up into a much bigger role then someone has to step into his #3 WR spot and I think it’s Janis. The small school product didn’t do much last year but he’s very talented and being Rodgers’ #3 WR is a pretty good gig. A lot of people are expecting Ty Montgomery to be the guy but I see Janis filling the spot.

 

 

 

So today the U.S. Federal Judge Richard Berman sided with justice, fairness and common sense and slapped Roger Goodell and the NFL upside the head by vacating Tom Brady’s suspension.  The Commissioner so thoroughly screwed this up I can’t figure out how he makes $30 million a year.  This case was about a misuse or mishandling of equipment during a game and it was such a meaningless violation that no one recorded it properly, no one knew if it was intentional or if the pressure in a football could be affected by outside weather or air.  It was so meaningless that the NFL had caught teams/players/staff doing similar things before and hadn’t even fined a player for it.  Roger Goodell and the media then blew this up like it was the Watergate scandal (an actual scandal) and let it drag on for months.  I guess I’m not surprised Roger can’t follow the rules because that’s what happens when you make them up as you go.  Roger would have you believe that he suspended Tom Brady because he obstructed the investigation into this non-event yet in the past when Brett Favre sent lewd pictures to a woman and refused to turn over the evidence to the league Roger only fined him.  Roger doesn’t seem to mind fining and suspending people when he has absolutely no evidence just ask anyone from New Orleans that eventually had their suspensions overturned during the whole bounty fiasco.  Of course if there was video evidence of Tom Brady deflating the football by punching it in an elevator his suspension may have only been two games.  Anyone that works in a field where you have to follow rules or enforce rules or laws knows that the biggest way you get yourself in trouble is not enforcing things evenly.  Roger Goodell believes he is the end-all-be-all of everything in the NFL and his word is gospel and today Judge Berman said “No you are not”.   I haven’t read the 40 page rebuke Berman penned but I’ve seen a lot of the coverage and read some of the excerpts and I find it amusing that when Judge Berman referred to the “independent” investigation run by Ted Wells and NFL general counsel Jeffrey Pash he literally puts the word independent in quotation marks.  How could an investigation run by a man being paid $2-3 million by the NFL and a guy who’s office is literally right next to Goodell’s in the NFL headquarters in New York be considered independent?  How could Roger Goodell, the man who handed down the initial suspension (he says it was Troy Vincent’s call, bullshit) be a neutral arbiter for Brady’s league appeal?  Neither of these things is possible and anyone with any common sense can figure that out and Judge Berman obviously has some common sense.

I have one other problem with the way the media has spoken about Roger Goodell and something they don’t seem to be willing to pursue with the owners, who are Roger’s employers.  Many media members say that when they ask the owners about whether or not they support Goodell keeping his job they all seem to say they do and the media says it’s because Goodell has made the owners so much money since he’s been commissioner.  The television money is better than ever, ticket sales are good and people actually show up to games and somehow this is Goodell’s doing?  I don’t believe for a second that if they fire Goodell it will somehow hurt them financially other than having to buy out his ridiculous contract.  People do not go football games because of Roger Goodell, they do not tune in every Sunday, Monday and Thursday night because of Roger.  I don’t buy NFL gear because of Roger and I’ve never met a single football fan that has.  The idea that the NFL would be unable to replace Roger Goodell because he has some sort of super power that makes the NFL more profitable is ridiculous of course I suppose if we left it up to the owners they would probably just replace Goodell with Jeffrey Pash.

Any person with half a brain in Goodell’s position would go to the NFL Player’s Association and ask to sit down and find common ground.  Roger Goodell wants the players to be held to a certain standard off the field and that’s understandable.  The players want a fair and neutral party to determine the punishment in a case and they want to know what the rules are and what punishments they face if they break them beforehand, also completely understandable.  Goodell is the guy that hands out the punishment so he by definition isn’t impartial when it comes to a players appeal.  None of this should have ever happened and if the week after the AFC Championship game the NFL had announced that the Patriots had been fined $25,000 and Tom Brady had been fined $10,000 because some of the footballs the Patriots used had been underinflated that would have been the end of the story.  The conspiracy theorists out there now believe Goodell blew this whole thing up and let it drag on in order to take attention away from the domestic violence issues and the concussion issues that were plaguing the NFL last season.  Normally I would say that crazy but given the idiocy of this whole thing I’m starting to feel like it just might be possible.  That’s how incredibly stupid this whole thing has become, I’m actually willing to believe that Goodell did this on purpose.  I have to say, I’ve never been this ready for some real football.