If you’ve been following along you know I have remained skeptical of the Iowa Hawkeyes even as they started the season 4-0.  They were supposed to start the season 4-0 because Illinois St. was a good FCS team but they were still an FCS team.  Iowa St. has been a thorn in Kirk Ferentz’s side but they aren’t very good.  The Pitt game was at home and at night and North Texas didn’t stand a chance.  The Wisconsin game on the road in Madison was always going to be the first true test.  I am usually the most optimistic Hawkeye fan but I came into this season with very little hope except for the hope that the Hawkeyes would prove my dire feelings about them wrong.  The 4-0 start was a nice beginning but the Wisconsin game actually gives me real hope.  It wasn’t a pretty win but good teams find a way to win ugly when they need to, did anybody watch that Ohio St./Indiana game on Saturday afternoon?  Come to think of it Michigan St.’s win over Purdue wasn’t a thing of beauty either.

When Iowa and Wisconsin get together you can almost always bet the under because these two teams are rarely going to get into a shootout.  Both teams run the ball, control the clock and play great defense and on Saturday Iowa played defense at another level.  Going into the season I was worried about Iowa’s offense and I thought the defense had potential to be pretty good, I underestimated the defense, they are pretty great.  CB Desmond King is playing at an All-American level and he had his second 2 interception game of the year and now is tied for the national lead with 5 interceptions through 5 games.  No offense to the Eli Apple hype train in Columbus and on ESPN but I wouldn’t trade King for any DB in the country right now, he is special.  The defensive line has also raised it’s game and they destroyed Wisconsin’s offense all day long.  DE Drew Ott is playing with a big brace on his elbow and all that is doing is making him play like he’s JJ Watt (he’s playing more like Watt than Watt actually).  DT Jaleel Johnson had the large shoes of Carl Davis to fill this season and Johnson isn’t just filling the shoes he’s outplaying Davis from last season.  Johnson doesn’t get a lot of attention because what he does doesn’t show up on a stat sheet but he’s blowing up opponents inside run game and collapsing the pocket on passing downs.  DE Nate Meier and DT Nathan Bazata are playing well too and making teams pay when they pay too much attention to Ott and Johnson.

The Iowa LB corps is playing far better than it did last season and it is certainly helping that the defensive line has been dominant all season long.  It also helps that senior Cole Fisher has solidified his spot and that sophomores Josey Jewell and Ben Niemann have done the same.  Continuity and familiarity help and the chemistry of the front seven has been far better than it was last season.  As I mentioned King has been spectacular but the entire secondary has been much improved.  CB Greg Mabin is holding his own opposite King and Reese Fleming has been a solid nickel corner.  Miles Taylor’s insertion at SS has certainly improved the play in the middle and he teams with Jordan Lomax to make a good combo.  Anthony Gair has also done a nice job of rotating in at safety and playing well.  The defense did a fantastic job of creating turnovers and that was the difference in the game.  Lastly I have to mention the unbelievable improvement by punter Dillon Kidd as he is light years ahead of where he was last season.  A good punter makes a big difference especially in a game like the one against Wisconsin where field position can play such a huge role.

The defense is the good news and while the offense had it’s moments against the Badgers there is some concern.  Wisconsin was by far the best defense Iowa has faced to date and CJ Beathard had his worst game as starter but it was hardly all his fault.  The Badgers defense is good and DE Joe Schobert absolutely owned the Iowa offensive line especially backup LT Cole Croston who was starting for the injured Boone Myers.  Schobert was a one man wreaking crew and almost wreaked Iowa’s win.  The lone bright spot in the passing game was Matt Vandeberg but that’s because he was literally the only WR to catch a pass, he had 6 of them while Beathard’s 3 other completions went to a TE, a RB and a FB.  I was quite adamant before the season that Tevaun Smith was Iowa’s best weapon in the passing game and this game proved just how valuable he is.  Tevaun Smith is going to miss a few more weeks and that means Beathard has to work extra hard to get on the same page with freshman WR Jerminic Smith.  Jerminic Smith replaced Tevaun Smith in the lineup and he showed that he has the ability to beat coverage and get deep but at the moment he doesn’t have much timing with Beathard.  Jerminic doesn’t have the experience of Tevaun but he and Beathard could be a devastating combination if they can figure it out.

The bright spot on the offense overall was RB Jordan Canzeri who went for 125 yards rushing and had one of the other 3 completions from Beathard in the passing game.  Canzeri has carried the running game since LeShun Daniels sprained his ankle a few weeks ago and while Daniels has played the last couple of weeks you can tell that he just doesn’t have the explosion from his legs and that ankle is still not 100%.  The Hawkeyes have to look at getting Daniels rested and recovered because 3rd string RB Derrick Mitchell missed the Wisconsin game with an injury and Canzeri isn’t going to last if he has to take a pounding like he did against the Badgers every week.  Canzeri also fumbled this weekend which makes 3 in 5 games and I think 2 of them were due to fatigue.  It’s interesting that Canzeri fumbles and he still gets a chance while Akrum Wadley has barely been heard from since his fumbling problems.

Wisconsin’s defense certainly deserves some credit but Iowa has to do a better job of finding other playmakers and using them.  WR Jerminic Smith, TE Jake Duzey and potentially freshman WR Adrian Falconer could be useful players.  It’s fairly clear that WRs Jacob Hillyer and Riley McCarron don’t get open enough and other than his one ill-fated jet sweep a few weeks ago I haven’t seen converted WR Jonathan Parker this season.  I’m going to propose a radical solution to Iowa’s lack of playmakers problem, let Desmond King play some WR.  It sounds like a crazy solution but King has shown he has a some playmaker in him when returning punts and kicks and while he’s incredibly valuable on defense he wouldn’t be the first college football player to play CB and WR.  If he got in on offense it would certainly jump start that King for Heisman campaign I am hoping to start.

For the first time since November of 2010 the Iowa Hawkeyes are ranked ( #22 in the AP, #23 in the Coaches) and unlike many teams the Hawkeyes earned their ranking.  To say that the Hawkeyes entered the season with low expectations would be an understatement.  No considered this a team that could be in the top 25 and the only preseason lists you could find the Hawkeyes on were the ones talking about Kirk Ferentz and the hot seat he was on.  A well earned ranking has to feel quite satisfying for Coach Ferentz and the team and I’m more than happy to have been wrong.  Go Hawks!

College Football Hott Reads (I haven’t weighed in on College Football much other than talking about the Hawkeyes so here it goes)

• I get the fact that Urban Meyer is a phenomenal college coach and all but how is he not giving JT Barrett a shot when Cardale Jones looks absolutely terrible at times for Ohio St.  It’s not like Barrett wasn’t fantastic before he got hurt last year and Jones took over.  I also can’t figure out why OSU refuses to feed Ezekiel Elliott in the first half of games.  He lit up Indiana for over 200 yards in the second half on Saturday so why is Meyer insisting on using an ineffective Jones when he could rely on Elliott.  Maybe the Buckeyes miss former OC Tom Hermann more than they realize.
• Speaking of Cardale Jones I’m not sure how anyone has watched him play this season and still believes he is a first round NFL draft pick.  At this point he’s a less athletic version of EJ Manuel and that might be his ceiling.  His floor is a poor man’s JaMarcus Russell.
• Congratulations to Iowa St on their final win of the season…sorry…second win of the season.  Okay I would give the Cyclones a chance against Texas but Charlie Strong might be coaching for his job when he’s 1-6 going to Ames.  How far has Texas fallen that their coach might need a win at Iowa St. to save his job.
• Paul Rhoads might not be the first Big 12 coach fired but he might be the guy who gets the first Big 12 coach fired.  Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury can’t afford a home loss to Iowa St this week or his seat will get pretty warm and then of course there is the aforementioned Strong.
• By the way, Texas would be stupid to let Charlie Strong go after two seasons but it is the place that hired Steve Patterson to be the AD so anything is possible.  Letting Patterson go after 22 months was the right call but never hiring him in the first place would have been the better call.
• OSU’s Joey Bosa is still the odds-on favorite to be the first pick in the 2016 draft and while he hasn’t been quite as dominant as people expected that might be because the talent on OSU’s defense is showing through (and the expectations were pretty high).  The extra attention paid to Bosa is giving guys like Adolphus Washington and Darron Lee a chance to make the plays before Bosa can.
• Everyone wanted to write off Michigan after they got beat by Utah in week 1 and people thought Jake Rudock was terrible.  The truth is Rudock is fine and Utah is pretty damn good.  Michigan is going to give OSU and Michigan St. a run for their money in the Big Ten East and Urban Meyer and Mark Dantonio might want to get used to the idea that Jim Harbaugh is going to be a pain in their asses until he goes back to the NFL.  I wonder if Harbaugh likes South Beach?
• In my very early look at the 2016 NFL draft I listed a whole bunch of QBs that could move around on the board.  Cal QB Jared Goff is rising fast and might give Bosa a run for the top spot (if the Texans are drafting a QB has to be the pick).  Cardale Jones is dropping like a rock.  Penn St.’s Christian Hackenberg fell early with a terrible performance against Temple but he’s rebounded a bit.  Connor Cook is steady but unspectacular.  Trevon Boykin is spectacular but his transition to the NFL game would be quite unsteady.  Cody Kessler is a poor man’s Drew Brees, I’m not sure if that’s good or bad.  Indiana’s Nate Sudfeld is my sleeper pick but he needs to stay healthy.
• I’ve always liked Georgia coach Mark Richt and I always thought he got a raw deal from the Georgia faithful but the guy just can’t seem to win a big game.  For the first time since Mike Shula was on the sidelines Alabama was an underdog and Georgia got handed a beatdown by the Tide.  10 win seasons are nice but when you always end up in the Outback Bowl no one cares.
• I always despised Bo Pelini at Nebraska almost as much as I despise Nebraska in general.  I was shocked when they hired Mike Riley and I wasn’t the least bit shocked when the Nebraska fan base talked themselves into thinking it was a good hire.  They are 2-3 and just handed Illinois a victory on Saturday, this could get ugly.  Has any college coach ever been fired in the middle of his first season?  You think I’m kidding but what happens when they lose to Wisconsin, Minnesota and Northwestern (all possible losses) and then get tripped up by Purdue?  If Riley loses to Rutgers he might not make the Iowa game at the end of the year.

NFL Hott Reads

• The lead story Monday was the firing of Dolphins coach Joe Philbin.  Philbin was Kirk Ferentz’s first offensive line coach at Iowa and he was an excellent coach.  He may not be cut out for the head job or it may just be that Miami is that dysfunctional of a franchise.  Things don’t sound good but Philbin will land on his feet somewhere.  The Dolphins may have too many chefs in the kitchen and the direction of the franchise is suspect.  Owner Stephen Ross, Vice President of Football Operations Mike Tannenbaum and GM Dennis Hickey need to pick a direction and all pull the same way.
• Speaking of dumpster fires the Eagles have no idea what they are doing.  They can’t seem to get Demarco Murray going and they may be better off with Mark Sanchez at QB and Ryan Mathews at RB, words I never thought I’d write.  Something tells me Chip Kelly is checking real estate ads in Austin, TX and Miami, FL, I’m talking about the Hurricanes not the Dolphins.
• Speaking of dumpster fires…sorry I already used that one…actually no it’s a dumpster fire too…did you see the Texans get annihilated by the Falcons.  The QB situation in Houston is a joke.  Bill O’Brien pulled the plug on Brian Hoyer in week 1 and Ryan Mallett proceeds to look like garbage so O’Brien goes back to Hoyer, he was better but they are still a joke.  The draft can’t get here fast enough and this time O’Brien better pull the trigger early on a pocket passer that can run his offense (Christian Hackenberg come on down).
• Speaking of the Texans I haven’t heard a lot coming from JJ Watt, he must be taking the season off so he can win next year’s Defensive Player of the Year.  He’s like the San Francisco Giants they only win the World Series every other year.
• I wonder if interim Dolphins coach Dan Campbell can find Ndamukong Suh, maybe he is hiding with Watt.
• Going the other way for a minute the Atlanta Falcons looked fantastic dismantling the Texans and OC Kyle Shanahan was paying attention all those years watching his father.  When your defense is suspect and your offensive line struggles pass blocking run the damn ball.  The Falcons do that very well and bowling ball like RB Davonta Freeman knows how to cut and go.  Shanahan is an underrated offensive mind because he prefers to run the ball not spread it out and throw it all the time.
• The Bengals are the other team that looks good (the Patriots are awesome but they were on a bye week).  The offense is humming right along and Andy Dalton has raised his game.  Jeremy Hill was struggling but got back on track this week so he and Giovani Bernard are a deadly combo.  The Bengals defense is playing great and with that offense they can be aggressive because they don’t fear giving up a few points.
• Tavon Austin was apparently released from the witness protection program and he showed up this week and caught passes from Nick Foles and looked like a genuine weapon for the Rams.  We will see if they will let him come out and play next week.
• Todd Gurley started off slow for the Rams this week but he had a second half that should scare the bejeezus out of the rest of the league.  When he gets healthy and I mean totally 100% healthy, he will dominate.
• The Raiders are still the Raiders which is why they blew their game against a very beatable Bears team but Derek Carr to Amari Cooper is something special.  It is something they can build their offense around.  Somebody get these guys some offensive linemen and a defense please.

Most people think blowouts get boring and are not as fun as games that come down to the wire like last week’s nail biter against Pitt and while it’s true the game against North Texas wasn’t as exciting as the Pitt game it was still entertaining.  It has been a really long time since the Hawkeyes destroyed an opponent like they did the Mean Green and I have to say I enjoyed it.  It wasn’t that I took pleasure in watching the Hawkeyes run up the score on Dan McCarney or that I have anything against North Texas it was just fun watching the Hawkeyes be able to do whatever they wanted to do and be successful at it.  It has been way too long since Iowa dominated any team like this and it was nice to see they had it in them.  I didn’t even have to feel bad about running up the score because it was the defense’s two late pick-sixes that really did the final damage.

I’m sure if I poured over the game tape again I could nitpick a few play calls or some personnel issues (giving the 3rd string RB his first touch of the ball on a reverse that ended up being fumbled sort of sticks out in my mind) but that would just take the fun out of this win so I’m just going to note a few things I really liked.  The 81 yard TD pass from Beathard to Tevaun Smith was fantastic.  Finally the team went deep to the guy they should go deep to and it was a perfectly thrown pass, a beautiful over the shoulder catch and a fantastic play call at the right time.  Can’t beat that combination of things.  Jordan Canzeri was a machine and he was handsomely rewarded for his efforts with 4 TDs in the game.  Iowa did a nice job of getting the backups in once the game was in-hand and while backup QB Tyler Wiegers only threw 1 pass for no yards he actually got some game action.  The second string offensive line struggled a bit to start but eventually got it going and 3rd string RB Derrick Mitchell finally got in a game and did some good things after the unfortunate incident early (yeah that’s what I’m going to call it).

Finally, this game was just a step in the right direction and while ultimately meaningless it sets up this Saturday’s match up with Wisconsin in Madison.  The Badgers are ranked but they are beatable and Iowa had a nice tuneup against North Texas and didn’t get tripped up in the trap game.  Iowa is in the “receiving votes” category of both the Coaches’ and AP polls and if they can escape Madison with a win they will be ranked for the first time in far too long.

Go Hawks!

NFL Hott Reads

• The Patriots and Cardinals are playing great and are off to 3-0 starts but they need to pay a little closer attention to the happenings in the league.  Ben Roethlisberger is just the latest starting QB to go down with an injury joining Tony Romo, Drew Brees and Jay Cutler along with beat up starters Phillip Rivers and Matthew Stafford and yet Tom Brady and Carson Palmer were both playing in the 4th quarter of blowouts this week.  When you play with fire you get burned and those 3-0 starts could go south quickly if Brady or Palmer go down in a heap.
• Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee sprain (it looked way worse than it turned out) and now the Steelers have Michael Vick starting for the next month.  They are lucky Le’Veon Bell is back and ready to roll and having DeAngelo Williams, who played very well in Bell’s absence, means the Steelers should run the ball about 85% of the time.  This is the time they really wish they could have developed Landry Jones into a competent backup.
• Sticking to the QB theme, Holy Moses is Colin Kaepernick terrible.  He threw 4 awful picks this week and Jim Tomsula still didn’t bench him.  That leads me to this question, just how bad is Blaine Gabbert?
• Tom Brady was in the game too long but Tom Brady is killing it this year.  Somebody better check the PSI.
• Tyrod Taylor has been pretty solid for the Bills and he made the Dolphins look bad this weekend.  He was aided by the fact that the Dolphins are bad.
• The Dolphins look completely lost and while I have an affection for Joe Philbin from his days as a Hawkeye assistant coach I think his days are numbered and unless they turn things around quickly he won’t make it to the end of the season.
• Chuck Pagano has a heck of an overall record with the Colts but he’s not on the same page with his GM Ryan Grigson and despite the Colts inexplicable win this weekend he too needs to turn things around.  He’s extremely lucky that at this point his division, the AFC South, is a dumpster fire.  All 4 teams are 1-2 and look terrible.  He has the best QB in the division but Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles have enough talent that if their teams start playing better they could pull out a division title.  The Texans are floundering around with Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer at QB so let’s assume they finish last.
• Speaking of the Texans they played a game against the Bucs this weekend they may have set the game of football back 20 years.  I tried to find highlights of the game, they don’t exist.
• So after week 1 it looked like the Raiders were going to be the Raiders, 2 weeks later they look pretty good.  The 49ers looked great in week 1 running all over the Vikings with Carlos Hyde, 2 weeks later they look how we all expected them to look, terrible.  The Rams beat up the Seahawks in week 1 and now have lost two in a row.  Some people may be surprised but week 1 did not define the season.  Except that maybe the Patriots are fantastic.
• The Eagles finally got a win but it was because of Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles and Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw 3 picks.  Sometimes you need a little help.
• I watched most of the Bengals/Ravens game and it was fun watching Old Man River Steve Smith and Young Buck AJ Green stage a game of “Anything you can do I can do better”.  Smith went for 186 yards on 13 catches with 2 TDs and Green had 227 yards on 10 catches and 2 TDs himself.  Smith didn’t look like a guy who is going to retire at the end of the season but then again days like this are few and far between for him now.  By the way Julio Jones didn’t want anyone to forget he’s still trying to stake his claim to “Best WR in Football” so he had 12 catches for 164 yards and 2 TDs.  Throw in players like Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Julian Edelman, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham and so many more and the WR position in the NFL is absolutely stacked.
• New Orleans, Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit are all 0-3.  Baltimore and Detroit could turn it around and I wouldn’t be surprised.  New Orleans and Chicago look terrible and if Drew Brees’ shoulder is an issue throughout the season the Saints are toast.
• Cincinnati, Carolina, Atlanta, New England, Arizona, Denver and Green Bay are all 3-0.  New England, Arizona and Green Bay don’t surprise me while Cincinnati always had the potential.  Denver is doing it with defense and an offense that is doing just enough.  I’m not buying in on Atlanta and Carolina because there is no way their suspect offensive lines hold up all year.  So far they are doing fine (especially Atlanta run blocking for Davonte Freeman this week) but eventually I think it will cost both teams.  It helps they are in a division with New Orleans and Tampa Bay.
• Monday news from the league was that the Bears finally realized they have some absolutely horrible fits on their roster and decided to cut bait.  First the big name trade was Jared Allen being sent to the Panthers.  He was a horrible fit in the 3-4 defense and now he gets to go to a traditional 4-3 team that will use his last remaining miles appropriately as a pass rushing DE.  Then the Bears sent another Phil Emery mistake packing as LB Jon Bostic heads to the Patriots.  The Bears got 6th round picks for each guy and in both cases everyone wins.  The Bears clear out bad roster fits and the Panthers and Patriots get decent players now for 6th round picks that wouldn’t make their rosters next year anyway.

 

I have had to stop watching the video of Brett Greenwood leading the Hawkeye Swarm onto the field before the Pitt game because I’m going to end up dehydrated.  Last week against the Cyclones the Hawkeyes had the memories of Tyler Sash and Roy Marble to lift them but this week it was the absolutely inspirational image of Brett Greenwood leading them onto the field with the help of former teammate and true friend Pat Angerer.  The saying “Once a Hawkeye, always a Hawkeye” is sometimes just words but not to Angerer and not for Greenwood.  I hope the Hawkeyes win gives Greenwood as much inspiration for his recovery as his recovery gave them for their win.

Desmond King and Marshall Koehn are getting the lion’s share of the credit for the Iowa win, King for his two interceptions that played a huge part in the 1st half success of the Iowa defense and some fantastic return game work and Koehn for his incredible 57 yard field goal to win the game.  Both players are deserving of all the praise they are getting but they didn’t do it alone.

CJ Beathard played his best game as a Hawkeye and I’m not talking about statistics.  His leadership, his decisiveness and his will put Iowa in a position to win this game.  The offense isn’t better because this year’s version of Beathard is better than last year’s version of Jake Rudock it’s because Beathard is better than either Rudock or himself last year.  His play is light years ahead of where he was last year with his decision-making and his execution and his playmaking has been stellar.  Beathard is seeing the field better, identifying where to go with the football and making his decisions quickly and correctly.  Once he knows where he is going with the ball it’s out in a hurry and he’s putting his playmakers in a position to do something with the football (although there were a few times against Pitt where I thought he was going to get his receivers killed).  The play calling is much improved and Beathard’s ability to pick up yardage with his legs has been a huge asset.  It isn’t that Beathard is some phenomenal athlete but when he decides to run he doesn’t hesitate and his long strides pick up yards quickly.  Beathard isn’t exactly Chuck Long at this point but he’s starting to play a little like Ricky Stanzi.

King got quite a bit of credit for his two interceptions but there was an unsung hero of the defense that didn’t put up a lot of stats but had a huge effect on the game.  DT Jaleel Johnson was a monster on the interior of the defensive line and Iowa held Pitt to 55 yards rushing and that was in large part to Johnson spending a lot of time in their backfield.  He also put plenty of pressure on the QB even if he didn’t actually get to him and he might have gotten to him if the Pitt offensive line hadn’t held him so much.  There were several times he broke through and the lineman held Johnson by the shoulder pads and it wasn’t called.  Of course those no calls pale in comparison to the helmet-to-helmet hit on Beathard that wasn’t called and the blatant pass interference on Tevaun Smith that was inexplicably missed.  It would be a massive understatement to say I was not impressed with the ACC officials that called the game (and here I though Big Ten refs were bad).  There were many missed calls in that game and kudos to the Hawkeyes for not letting it affect them.

Marshall Koehn, what a difference a year makes.  Koehn started last season in horrible fashion in the first game of the year and was actually replaced by a true freshman that ended up being worse.  The Hawkeyes went back to Koehn and stuck with him and he actually became quite good on his field goals by the end of last year.  The strength of his leg has never been in doubt and he’s become an incredible kickoff guy and finally found his consistency on field goals.  I never doubted for a second that he could hit the 57 yarder and thank you to Pat Narduzzi for giving him a practice swing to line it up.  It was sort of like giving a scratch golfer a practice tee shot on a par 3, just let him hit it straight and see what the wind is doing and how his footing is, yeah that’s a good idea.  Even the coaches and CJ Beathard new they only need to get to about the 40 to give Koehn a chance and Beathard made it happen with his legs.  Of course once Koehn kicked it it was obvious it was going in and that kick would have been good from 65, that’s a nice weapon to have.

All off season long and through the early part of the Hawkeye schedule I’ve been talking about wanting to see tangible proof that Kirk Ferentz has made changes to turn this program around from the stagnant, going nowhere position he had led it too over the past several years.  There were signs in the first game of the year but that was an inferior opponent that played poorly.  Last week the Hawkeyes got the ISU monkey off their backs but it took all game and they were playing for a fallen Hawkeye so it was tough to assess.  The Pitt game was a dogfight against a pretty evenly matched opponent and while I saw flashes of change it wasn’t until there was 52 seconds left that real proof came through.  Pitt had just marched down the field and Iowa’s defense had not only bent it had broken and the Panthers scored to tie the game.  They couldn’t stop the clock enough to get the ball back so they were playing for overtime and I fully expected Ferentz to kneel on the ball and play for overtime too because 16 years worth of history told me that’s what he would do.  This time was different.  For the first time in a long time Iowa had a kick returner that could make a play and Desmond King did just that.  Iowa didn’t just sit on the ball they actually made a few plays and picked up yardage and then when it looked like their efforts would fall short and they would head to overtime anyway they actually managed the clock correctly.  Then with 8 seconds to play and needing about 8-10 yards to give Marshall Koehn an actually shot at a field goal Beathard dropped back and when nothing was open quick he took off, ran towards the sideline, picked up enough yards and dropped to the ground and immediately turned to the ref to call timeout.  The Hawkeyes had 2 seconds left and they gave their kicker a chance.  Ferentz and Beathard both had to have confidence in Koehn going into that last play before the kick because they didn’t have time to pick up 15 yards but they knew they only needed to get to about the 40 yard line to get Koehn within range.  A playmaking kick returner, good play calling, confidence in the QB, confidence in the kicker, good clock management and playing to win instead of playing not to lose all rolled into one final drive and Hawkeyes pulled off a great win under that lights.  I’ve always been among the most optimistic Hawkeye supports and this year I swore I needed to see change before I’d believe in and while I’m still not totally convinced Kirk Ferentz took a huge step in the right direction this weekend.

Hopefully the Hawkeyes can use the game against North Texas as a tuneup before they travel to Wisconsin.  I would love to see Iowa dominate this weekend and be able to play the reserves.  Getting CJ Beathard some rest after he was banged up against Pitt would be good and getting Tyler Wiegers some actual game snaps would be helpful.  LeShun Daniels could use some rest on his ankle and Jordan Canzeri would benefit from not getting hit so much.  RBs Derrick Mitchell Jr. and Akrum Wadley need some playing time as do young WRs Jerminic Smith and Adrian Falconer.  Iowa needs to get up big against their worst opponent this season and get the backups some reps.

NFL Hott Reads

• In Week 2 of the NFL season injuries continued to pile up and this week it was the QB position that took it the hardest.  Tony Romo broke his clavicle and is out 8 weeks, Drew Brees has a shoulder injury that could keep him out a couple of weeks, Jay Cutler is out for a few weeks with a bad hamstring and while it’s not for sure Matt Stafford got beat up pretty good this week and could be held out.  Throw in the less than inspiring play of the Ryan Mallett for the Texans and it was a rough week on starting QBs.
• Ndamukong Suh reportedly ignored the defensive calls of the Dolphins defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle which is obviously troubling if true.  The last major defensive tackle free agent I remember acting out was a guy named Albert Haynesworth, that didn’t end well.
• The offensive genius of Chip Kelly has apparently gone missing and his personnel choices may be coming back to haunt him.  The trade for Sam Bradford looked great in the preseason but once the games started to count it’s looked awful.  Kelly’s release of both starting guards from last season (Todd Herremans and Evan Mathis) isn’t looking so hot either as Demarco Murray has struggled to find running room.  If you’re going to spend major money on a RB you should probably make sure you have someone to block for him.  Also the signing of Byron Maxwell looks like wasted money through the first two games.  They are paying a lot more money to him than they did to the guys he replaced and they aren’t getting any better production.
• They will be putting up missing person signs, issuing an amber alert and putting his likeness on milk cartons if Jimmy Graham doesn’t surface soon in Seattle.  If you’re going to trade your starting center and a first round draft pick for a guy you should probably try to use him at some point.  Seattle is 0-2 and their offense can’t get going because the offensive line isn’t blocking for Marshawn Lynch and they haven’t figured out how to use the best weapon in the passing game Jimmy Graham.  Oh and Tyler Lockett is already the best WR on the team.
• The Buffalo Bills talked a good game going into their game against New England but they still couldn’t back it up.  It’s not their fault that Tom Brady is on a mission and he has Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman getting open every play.  By the way I thought going into the season that the pickup of Travaris Cadet would be good because his skill set filled the Shane Vereen role but that was because I didn’t know Dion Lewis was healthy and ready to break out.  It helps a guy like Lewis to have Tom Brady throwing pinpoint passes to him all day.
• Johnny Manziel started for the Browns this week and not only was it not a total disaster but they actually won the game.  He seems to really like throwing long TD passes to Travis Benjamin and while it will take a lot more to convince anyone that he’s the future at QB for the Browns it was nice to see the position not be a complete disaster for the franchise even if it was only for the day.
• People thought Peyton Manning’s career was over after opening week and for most of Thursday night it looked like they might be right, that was until Gary Kubiak let Manning loose at the end of the game because they needed a comeback.  Manning running the hurry up offense like he has run for years and he looked like vintage Manning to knock off the Chiefs.
• The Raiders rebounded from an ugly start in week 1 against the Bengals to knock off the Ravens and Derek Carr and Amari Cooper showed just how impressive they can be together.  Carr looked terrific and Cooper proved he can be a top WR in the NFL.  The Raiders are going to be up and down this year because young teams are seldom consistent but the future looks better with Carr and Cooper on offense than it has since Rich Gannon was under center.
• I mentioned Ryan Mallett didn’t look good for the Texans so that’s two QBs in two weeks that haven’t looked good and something tells me they aren’t calling up Zac Dysert from the practice squad.  With Tom Savage on IR the Texans are stuck with either Mallett or Brian Hoyer and Bill O’Brien has to be hoping Arian Foster gets back soon.  He also has to be watching tape of Connor Cook, Jared Goff and Christian Hackenberg in anticipation of next year’s draft.
• In case you missed it Marcus Mariota is mortal.  He wasn’t as stellar in week 2 as he was in week 1 and he actually looked how you would expect a rookie QB to look.  The Browns defense was far better than the Bucs defense was opening week and Mariota’s Titans lost to Johnny Manziel’s Browns, so goes life in the NFL.
• Jay Gruden finally figured it out this week that his team’s best shot at winning games is to rely on their power running game featuring Alfred Morris and rookie Matt Jones because it takes the pressure off of Kirk Cousins and off of their defense.  Morris and Jones ran all over a very good St. Louis defense and that’s why they won.  With the Cowboys missing Romo and Dez Bryant, the Eagles looking suspect and the Giants being a complete mess the NFC East is wide open.
• Reason #1127 why I don’t bet on football.  The Jets beat the Colts on Monday Night Football and now the Jets are 2-0 and the Colts are 0-2, what were the odds of that happening before the season started?
• The Hawkeyes won, the Patriots won and I won in Fantasy Football, all is right with the world.

 

 

Iowa vs. Iowa St

The Hawkeyes and Cyclones got together for another round of the Cy-Hawk series and the game didn’t disappoint of course for me that’s probably because the Hawkeyes actually pulled out the win.  The 31-17 score wasn’t indicative of how close the game was as the Hawkeyes scored twice late in the 4th quarter to pull out the win.  I’m always happy for a Hawkeye win and even happier when it comes over Iowa St. and while this game had it’s questionable moments it was nice to see the Hawkeyes get over the mental block they seem to have when playing ISU.

The moments that disturbed me the most were the absolutely horrific clock management and fake field goal call at the end of the 1st half.  I’m not against the fake field goal but not after you run the clock down to 1 second and then ask your kicker to run for a 30 yard TD or you get no points.  There are about 10 different scenarios that could have worked to get points and the coaches picked the one that was least likely to succeed, there is a fine line between being unpredictable and being stupid.  The other moment that bothered me most during the game was when the Hawkeyes put Jonathan Parker in and ran the jet sweep.  Parker losing yardage on that play was almost as inevitable as the Hawkeyes running the jet sweep when they put Parker in the game.  There wasn’t a single person in the record breaking crowd at Jack Trice Stadium or watching the game on TV that didn’t know that play was coming.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again I love the speed and playmaking potential that Jonathan Parker brings to the offense but someone on the offensive staff has to figure out a way to get the ball to him that doesn’t involve the words “jet sweep”.  Try a tunnel screen or try one of the many quick flare out passes that they have thrown to Matt Vandeberg to Jonathan Parker instead.  The final thing that made me wonder what the coaching staff is doing was when Desmond King fielded a kickoff that was going out of bounds at about the 2 yard line, it wasn’t quite as idiotic of a play as Parker’s infamous play in the bowl game but it was close.  How have the coaches not taught their kickoff return guys that if a ball is headed out of bounds DO NOT TOUCH IT.  It’s a fairly easy rule to remember.

Parker moved over to WR from RB during spring practice but the coaching staff may have to consider moving him back to RB depending on the health this week of LeShun Daniels.  Daniels sprained his ankle but that isn’t the only hit the RB depth chart took this week.  Derrick Mitchell Jr. has been suspended for a Student Code of Conduct violation, I’m not going to speculate what the issue is but he was 3rd string and after Daniels went down against ISU Jordan Canzeri had to handle all of the workload.  It was pretty obvious the coaches don’t trust Akrum Wadley’s ball security when they wouldn’t even use him when Canzeri looked completely gassed in the second half of the game.  If Daniels can’t go (it’s completely possible that he will) and they don’t have Mitchell and they don’t trust Wadley that leaves redshirt freshman Marcel Joly or true freshman Eric Graham, let’s all cross our fingers that Daniels is fine.

The injury to Drew Ott is far more concerning given the start he got off to this season.  We should find out a little more today from Kirk Ferentz’s press conference but my guess is we won’t know a lot until Saturday night when they line up against Pitt.  Parker Hesse played pretty well given he was thrown into the fire a bit and Matt Nelson will see more playing time in the rotation at DE.  Even if Ott plays Saturday he isn’t likely to be 100% so it would be a good idea to lessen his load by playing Nelson and Hesse more.  Kudos to Nate Meier for picking up the playmaking slack when Ott did go out he really stepped up his play.

CJ Beathard played a fantastic game against the Cyclones and he’ll get tested this weekend even more by a Pitt team being coached by former Michigan St. defensive guru Pat Narduzzi.  Beathard made plays with his arm and his feet and that makes him much more difficult to prepare for from Pitt’s perspective but he needs to keep up his playmaking prowess.  The Hawkeyes did a fantastic job of using Matt Vandeberg in the short passing game over and over again which is what led to him being able to get downfield for his long catch against the Cyclones, at least some evidence that the Hawkeyes are figuring out this offensive play calling thing.  Congrats to Riley McCarron on his TD grab, I’m still not sure how he got open but Beathard threw an unbelievable pass and McCarron made a really nice grab.  Jordan Canzeri carried the load in the second half of the game and luckily for him the Cyclone defense wore down too and he made some plays and didn’t let his fumble get into his head, maybe he could talk to Akrum Wadley about that, then maybe he’d have some help.

In the first half of the game the Iowa defense kept shooting itself in the foot with stupid and untimely penalties that kept Cyclone drives alive.  In the second half they stopped the stupid penalties and shut out the Cyclones.  There is a lesson to be learned there and hopefully they will play more disciplined against Pitt.  Watching the game it was interesting to me that the commentators kept talking about the size and ability of ISU WRs Allen Lazard and D’Vario Montgomery but they really didn’t talk much about how Iowa’s corners did a pretty solid job against them.  Lazard had 7 catches but they didn’t really hurt Iowa and Montgomery only had one catch.

The Cy-Hawk trophy is back where it belongs in Iowa City and the Hawkeyes finally have one of there traveling trophies back (it’s still pretty lonely but 1 is better than none).  Now the two teams get to move on to the rest of their schedule.  The Hawkeyes have a prime time date with Pitt on Saturday and Iowa St. travels to face a Toledo team that just took down Arkansas.  All of the sudden that Toledo game looks a little more daunting but then they Cyclones get Kansas and they need to win that game because then they get 8 straight games where they won’t be favored in any of them, just kidding Clone fans you might be favored over Texas if they keep playing they way they are playing.

NFL Overreaction Week (aka Week 1)

So far what we know about the NFL season is that Peyton Manning’s career is obviously over, the Seahawks are completely finished and stand no chance even within their own division and Johnny Manziel is a terrible QB.  Okay only one of those things is probably true, care to guess which one?  Here’s my Hott Reads on some situations around the league.

• Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos offense looked pretty bad this week but let’s not jump off the cliff just yet.  Manning is running a new offense after running essentially the same offense since Bill Clinton was President (no seriously Clinton was still President that’s how long it’s been).  Watching Manning trying to roll out left and hit a WR over the middle while running was almost painful and expecting Manning to put up big numbers in Gary Kubiak’s offense is crazy.  Kubiak was hired to be the Broncos coach for the long haul and Manning isn’t in this for the long haul so it’s an inconvenient marriage.  The bigger problem is the offensive line in flux and their inability to get things going in the running game to take the pressure off Manning.  Manning will figure it out and hopefully Kubiak will call for less roll outs but the offense should improve.
• Another team that has offensive line problems is the Seahawks and St. Louis’ great defensive line showed teams that that is how you beat Seattle.  QB pressure on Wilson and being able to get to Marshawn Lynch in the backfield helps a lot when defending the Seahawks.  The Seattle defense will keep them in games for the most part but the losses on their offensive line are going to hurt them.
• Johnny Manziel was called upon when Josh McCown suffered a concussion in the Browns game and he came in an threw a beautiful TD pass on his first series.  Then he turned back into a pumpkin and looked horrible during the second half.  Manziel might not be done yet because McCown has to pass concussion protocol before he can return but his future looks pretty bleak.
• Marcus Mariota is being fitted for his gold Hall of Fame jacket as we speak but we may want to put the breaks on for just a minute.  He had a phenomenal first NFL game and that has to feel good for the Titans but I remember a few years ago there was this guy named Robert Griffin III that won Rookie of the Year over another rookie QB named Andrew Luck, who would you rather have right now.  Also Tennessee only has to look at their own history at a guy named Vince Young.  Young won Rookie of the Year too and his career sputtered pretty quickly after that, I’m not saying that kind of fall is going to happen to Mariota I’m just saying let’s give him a little time before we start working on his bronze bust for Canton.
• Many teams looked really good and many teams looked really bad and for most of them it they are probably somewhere in between and for some it was just an aberration (the Colts can’t be that bad).  However two teams looked as good as I thought they would and two teams looked as bad and I think their performances were true to form.  The Rams got solid QB play with great defense and they looked good with out either Todd Gurley or Tre Mason at RB, they could be very good when they get those guys back.  The Bengals played really well on offense and their defense was much improved.  The Browns are sunk as long as Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel are their options at QB and the Buccaneers looked bad because a suspect offensive line played poorly and their defense got destroyed.
• Two major WRs got hurt and both teams hope they are out for just a few weeks.  The Colts lost TY Hilton and after their showing in Week 1 they can’t afford to be without anyone that can help them.  The Cowboys lost Dez Bryant late in their win against the Giants and they made their comeback without him but they hope he’s back sooner rather than later.  They can get by but Devin Street is no Dez Bryant.  Cowboy fans are thanking God for the ageless wonder TE Jason Witten.
• One quick thing about my Predictions thing, I completely forgot to include Carlos Hyde as one of my breakout offensive players, he got off to a heck of a start last night.
• Not an overreaction just a fact: Tom Brady is pissed off and he’s going to take it out on the entire league and he’s going to do it with fully inflated footballs.

Since I did my preview differently this season I didn’t give a very clear indication of where I thought teams would end up so here’s a quick synopsis of how I think each division will play out.

AFC East

1. New England   2. Miami   3. Buffalo   4. New York Jets

Does anyone really want to bet against Tom Brady this season? The Patriots own the division and a pissed off Brady isn’t giving it up. The Dolphins will be improved and will fight for a playoff spot but they won’t overtake New England. Both the Bills and the Jets have good defenses but Buffalo’s is better and I’m going with the unknown QB Tyrod Taylor over the we-know-he-isn’t-good QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

AFC North

1. Cincinnati   2. Baltimore   3. Pittsburgh   4. Cleveland

This is a three team race and not much will separate the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers. Cincinnati has been pretty good in the regular season and I think that continues. The Ravens need some people to step up at WR and TE for Joe Flacco and some young guys on defense have to be as good as the Ravens hope they are (DE Tim Jernigan being a big one). The Steelers offense should be good even without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant to start the year but I’m worried their defense will struggle. The Browns are starting Josh McCown at QB in arguably the toughest division in football, good luck with that Cleveland.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis   2. Houston   3. Jacksonville   4. Tennessee

The Colts are clearly the class of the AFC South and Andrew Luck is going to run roughshod over the entire division. Houston has a tough defense but I’m still not convinced Brian Hoyer is going to make that offense go especially with Arian Foster out of the mix to start the year. Jacksonville could surprise but the offense is still young and the defense needs playmakers especially rushing the passer. Marcus Mariota has Titans’ fans excited but he’ll need help from a less than stellar group on offense around him and the defense is still suspect.

AFC West

1. Denver   2. Kansas City   3. San Diego   4. Oakland

The Chiefs could give the Broncos a run for their money but I think KC will struggle because of a very shaky offensive line. Denver’s offensive line is in a state of flux too but I’ll take Peyton Manning over Alex Smith any day. San Diego has Phillip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen on offense but their defense still needs some work. They need a pass rush to help their DBs or they are going to struggle. Oakland finally has some very nice players like QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper and OLB Khalil Mack but that’s not enough in this division.

Playoff Wildcards: Baltimore and Pittsburgh will edge out Miami and Kansas City for the two Wildcard spots. The Ravens and Steelers are just too consistent and Miami and Kansas City are not quite there yet. Miami is good enough to save Joe Philbin’s job and Kansas City is good enough to stay the course and look for small improvements.

NFC East

1. Dallas   2. Philadelphia   3. New York Giants   4. Washington

The Cowboys are going to miss Demarco Murray but not enough to lose the division to the Eagles. Their pass rush should be much improved and if they can stay healthy on defense (losing Orlando Scandrick isn’t a great start) they will come out on top. Sam Bradford has looked terrific in the preseason and the Eagles entire season will come down to how many games he plays. The Giants offense should be fine if the line can hold up just a little bit but the defense could be ugly. Washington is a disaster and it might remain that way until someone other than Daniel Snyder owns the team and although GM Scot McCloughan does bring some hope Kirk Cousins doesn’t.

NFC North

1. Green Bay   2. Minnesota   3. Detroit   4. Chicago

Even without Jordy Nelson Aaron Rodgers will lead this team to a division title. Detroit has been the biggest threat (although not much of one) but I think Minnesota takes a step up behind the returning Adrian Peterson and the rising Teddy Bridgewater. Detroit takes a step back because of their issues on both the offensive and defensive lines. They didn’t address the offensive line enough and Suh and Fairley were not adequately replaced. Chicago has some nice offensive pieces but the defense will be atrocious.

NFC South

1. Atlanta   2. New Orleans   3. Carolina   4. Tampa Bay

Carolina won this division at 7-8-1 last year so it won’t take much and .500 could take it. The Falcons are still a mess on the offensive line but Dan Quinn should get their defense to be respectable and that’s all Matt Ryan should need to go 8-8. Drew Brees is still fantastic but he needs playmakers like Brandin Cooks and CJ Spiller to really step up because the Saints defense is a work in progress. Carolina is counting on Michael Oher at LT and Devin Funchess to be the top WR so 7-8-1 might be a pipe dream. Jameis Winston is a huge upgrade over Josh McCown and Doug Martin could reemerge at RB but the defense has little pass rush and the offensive line has question marks.

NFC West

1. Seattle   2. St. Louis   3. Arizona   4. San Francisco

What was once the toughest division in football now has reshuffled behind the Seahawks. Seattle is the cream of the crop although their season could implode if their offensive line is as bad as I think it is. I put the Rams second because they have a great defense, a re-formed offensive line, a running game that should be good with Tre Mason and Todd Gurley and all they need is a consistent healthy QB and Nick Foles could be that guy. Arizona’s season rests on the health of Carson Palmer and while their defense will take a step back if Palmer is healthy their offense should thrive. San Francisco is a mess and unless QB Colin Kaepernick morphs into the second coming of Steve Young they are in for a long year.

Playoff Wildcards: St. Louis and Minnesota are the surprise wildcard teams beating out the Eagles. This is the year that St. Louis breaks through on the strength of their defense and the running of Todd Gurley. Nick Foles just has to be a solid threat for that team to have a chance. The last wildcard spot will come down to Chip Kelly’s overhauled Eagles team and the surprising Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater will take a major step forward with Adrian Peterson leading the running game and the Vikings defense will be better than the Eagles which will be the difference.

 

Individual Awards

Most Valuable Player

Top Contenders: QB Aaron Rodgers, DE JJ Watt, QB Andrew Luck, QB Tom Brady, RB Adrian Peterson, QB Tony Romo, QB Ben Roethlisberger

My Dark Horse Candidate: QB Sam Bradford

Going into the season this really looks like a three man race; reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, All-World DE JJ Watt and emerging superstar QB Andrew Luck. Rodgers is the best QB in the league but the gap between him and Luck is closing fast and Watt is such an amazing talent he defies all conventional wisdom and makes a great case for MVP. Tom Brady has a deflated football sized chip on his shoulder and has won 4 Super Bowls so I think he’ll be in the conversation. Adrian Peterson is out to prove he’s still the best RB in the league so 2000 yards isn’t out of the question. Romo is the unsung hero for one of the better offenses in the league and without Demarco Murray around he’ll have to carry more of the burden. Roethlisberger had a fantastic year last year and could repeat it but the Steelers defense may keep the team from being one of the best and while that shouldn’t negate his candidacy in reality it will hurt him. I picked Bradford as my dark horse because if he stays healthy he could put up huge numbers and with that team they could knock off the Cowboys in the division. He has looked great in the preseason and while he’s more likely to win Comeback Player of the Year if he stays healthy MVP isn’t out of the question because he has that kind of talent.

My Pick: QB Andrew Luck

Luck is about to emerge as the best QB in the league. The weapons he has on offense and his talents are a deadly combination. Rodgers is still right there with him but it’s about to become Luck’s league.

Offensive Player of the Year

Andrew Luck wins this with ease. The yards passing and the passing TD records are a possibility for him this year.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: DE JJ Watt, MLB Luke Kuechly, DE Robert Quinn, OLB Justin Houston, DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Mario Williams

My Dark Horse Candidate: OLB Khalil Mack

This is JJ Watt’s award to lose seeing as he has won it 2 out of the last 3 seasons but he did lose it to Luke Kuechly in between his two wins. Kuechly is a tackling machine and he isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon so he’s a strong contender. Quinn wasn’t quite as dominant last season as he was in 2013 but when a 10.5 sack season is a down year your bounce back season could win you this award. Justin Houston’s massive contract from this off season was well earned after he nearly broke the single season sack record last year meaning a repeat performance will get noticed. The Dolphins expect Suh to be in the discussion for this award after paying him a ridiculous sum of money this off season. Mario Williams has been a fantastic player his entire career and he could have a few more great seasons under the tutelage of Rex Ryan. Khalil Mack is a superstar talent and the only thing really holding him back from getting into the conversation for DPOY is the fact that Oakland is unlikely to be all that good and it is the curse both he and Mario Williams will likely have to overcome to win this award.

My Pick: DE Robert Quinn

At this point picking anyone other than Watt seems crazy but to me it just seems too easy. Quinn plays on the best defensive line in football and with the help of DE Chris Long and DTs Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers I think Quinn bounces back to lead the league in sacks and if St. Louis makes the playoffs that could really help his candidacy. One thing that could hold him back is if his line mate Donald steals too many sacks from him, he’s a stud too.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: QB Jameis Winston, QB Marcus Mariota, RB Todd Gurley, RB Melvin Gordon, WR Amari Cooper, WR Nelson Agholor, RB Ameer Abdullah, RB TJ Yeldon

My Dark Horse Candidate: WR Jaelen Strong

I listed Winston and Mariota because as starting QBs from day one if they turn around their teams they will be in the driver’s seat for this award but I don’t think that’s going to be the case. Melvin Gordon has the best shot because he’ll be a high usage rookie for the Chargers and he should put up big numbers. Todd Gurley will start the season on the shelf as he recovers from his torn ACL but his comeback is almost complete and once he takes over as the starter he should dominate. Amari Cooper will be the #1 WR for the Raiders and Derek Carr’s favorite target. Nelson Agholor will have to share Sam Bradford’s attention with Jordan Matthews but he will make some big plays and have plenty of highlights. Ameer Abdullah looks like a good bet to be the Lions’ primary ball carrier as does TJ Yeldon with the Jaguars and both of these players success will be determined by their ability to stay healthy. Jaelen Strong is running behind plenty of veterans with the Texans but Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts are nice players that could be outplayed once Strong gets his footing.

My Pick: WR Amari Cooper

I think Cooper has Pro Bowl ability and while defenses will focus on him he does have Michael Crabtree to take some pressure off of him. Derek Carr knows that Cooper is a special weapon and having a defense focus on him has never slowed Cooper before.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Vic Beasley, S Landon Collins, DE Leonard Williams, CB Marcus Peters, DE Randy Gregory, LB Stephone Anthony

My Dark Horse Candidate: LB Eric Kendricks

Vic Beasley is the pass rusher the Falcons have been missing for years and he should be a major playmaker for Dan Quinn’s defense. Landon Collins is the last line of defense for the Giants and while he is just a rookie they need him to play like a seasoned veteran because they don’t have much else at the position. Leonard Williams might be the most talented defensive rookie in this class and with Sheldon Richardson starting the season suspended Williams will shine. Marcus Peters will also get an early opportunity to shine with Sean Smith suspended to start the year. Peters is a true cover corner and he’s a rising star. Randy Gregory is a backup at the moment but he should be a pass rushing specialist and he could put up some sack numbers that get him noticed. Stephone Anthony is going to rack up tackle after tackle starting in the middle of the Saints defense, if he can make some big plays happen he’ll get noticed. Eric Kendricks isn’t even a starter for the Vikings as veteran Audie Cole will begin the season in the middle but Cole is limited and Kendricks could eventually take the job and he’ll excel.

My Pick: CB Marcus Peters

Peters is a special player that will shine in his time replacing the suspended Sean Smith and when Smith returns they will pair up and be one of the best CB duos in the league. Peters has the ability to be one of the best cover corners in the entire NFL and he should make enough plays to get noticed and win this award.

Hott Read Thoughts

• There were a number of interesting moves at the end of the preseason and contrary to ESPN belief the cutting of Tim Tebow was not one of them. The media’s Tebow obsession is bordering on insane. The trading of RBs Terrance West to the Titans and Christine Michael to the Cowboys could have an effect down the line. The Titans have Bishop Sankey and some niche runners while the Cowboys have Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden who underwhelmed in the preseason. The Titans put David Cobb on IR otherwise he would have been my Offensive Rookie of the Year Dark Horse Candidate. Also the Bears cut starting RT Jordan Mills at the end of the preseason and it looks like RG Kyle Long is moving to RT, that’s interesting.
• There are three interesting coaching situations to watch during the season and those are Jay Gruden in Washington, Mike Pettine in Cleveland and Jim Tomsula in San Francisco. Gruden is on borrowed time and if the Kirk Cousins gambit doesn’t pay big dividends Gruden won’t make it through the year (so Gruden won’t make it through the year). Pettine is banking on a suspect running game, a journeyman QB and a hopefully improved defense. He needs a rabbit’s foot, a four leaf clover and a lucky penny. Tomsula is by all accounts a great guy and a good coach but he may not be ready to handle this franchise at this moment. The 49ers are in for a long year.
• I think the Dolphins are good enough this year to save Joe Philbin’s job. And the Jaguars are good enough to save Gus Bradley.
• Breakout players for this season: On offense-WR Devante Adams, RB Jeremy Hill, WR Jarvis Landry and WR Amari Cooper. I made my feelings about Cooper pretty clear in the Rookie of the Year section, he’s special. Adams production will skyrocket because someone has to replace the production of Jordy Nelson and Adams becomes one of Aaron Rodgers top targets, good gig if you can get it. Jeremy Hill is a dark horse to lead the league in rushing (or at least finish second to Peterson). The Bengals know they can’t let their season rest on the arm of Andy Dalton so Hill will get a lot of carries. Jarvis Landry stepped up last year once he got a chance and this year he will be Ryan Tannehill’s security blanket and he’ll easily pass 100 catches. On Defense- DT Aaron Donald, LB Jamie Collins, DE Ziggy Ansah, CB Desmond Trufant. Donald is a disruptive force who had a very good rookie year and he’s only going to get better. Collins stepped up big in the playoffs for the Patriots last year after some injuries started to pile up. Belichick likes him and he’ll get even more responsibility this season. Ansah is going to be asked to do more this year and after having 7.5 sacks I think he’s poised to go get 12-15 this year. Desmond Trufant is still one of my favorite cover corners in the league even though he struggled at times last year. The Falcons had virtually no pass rush and even the best CB can cover a receiver all day. With Vic Beasley bringing the pressure, along with some other veterans, Trufant’s job gets easier and he will shine.
• It’s amazing to me that what used to be the safest position to draft early, offensive tackle, has become almost as big a crapshoot as drafting QBs. The first round picks since 2011 that have struggled are Matt Kalil, Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, DJ Fluker, Justin Pugh, Jake Matthews, James Carpenter, Derek Sherrod and Gabe Carimi. Greg Robinson, Ja’Wuan James and Lane Johnson are fine and could get better. Nate Solder, Anthony Castonzo and Riley Reiff have established themselves as solid starters. Taylor Lewan showed promise in his rookie year and only Tyron Smith has shown to be an elite level left tackle. Eric Fisher was the #1 overall pick and he just got moved to RT. James Carpenter and Justin Pugh have moved to guard and DJ Fluker probably should. Derek Sherrod and Gabe Carimi are basically done in the NFL. It used to be if you wanted a safe 1^st round pick you go with an OT, not any more.
• The first week of the college season wasn’t great for some of the bigger names for the 2016 draft. OSU DE Joey Bosa sat out due to a suspension and OSU didn’t miss a beat. Bosa is still the odds-on favorite to go #1 because no QBs stepped into the spot. His teammate Cardale Jones still has a ways to go to convince me he’s worth the #1 overall spot. Penn St. QB Christian Hackenberg was terrible in an embarrassing loss to Temple and he shouldn’t even be thinking about the 2016 draft right now.
• I don’t do early mock drafts like some websites do but if everyone that does do them didn’t change their 2018 #1 overall selection to UCLA QB Josh Rosen after the first week they are crazy. 2018 is a long way off but that kid looks like the next Andrew Luck.
• If Iowa DE Drew Ott can play like he did the opening weekend of the season he’s going to fly up draft boards.