NFL Coaching Carousel and the Playoffs

It’s the silly season in the NFL as teams didn’t wait for Black Monday to start firing coaches (the Rams, Bills and Jaguars didn’t even wait for the season to end).  The Chargers and 49ers pulled the trigger before the last gameday of the season ended and the biggest surprise so far was Gary Kubiak announcing his retirement at 55 because of health issues, best of luck to him and his family (something tells me his good friend John Elway will keep him around the Broncos family in some capacity).  That’s six openings with more that could follow.  I bring this up because I’m working on a mock draft and who replaces these guys can have a huge effect on the draft so I’m going to make a few predictions for the sake of doing this mock draft.

The Bills keep interim coach Anthony Lynn, he’s the anti-Rex Ryan.  Lynn could build a solid staff seeing as he has been a coach in the league for quite some time and has plenty of connections.  The Broncos wait a week to interview Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph (the Dolphins will be out of the playoffs next week, no way they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh with Matt Moore at QB) and they hire him to replace Kubiak.  The Jaguars GM David Caldwell has a relationship with Josh McDaniels (they played college football together) and I think he convinces McDaniels that he can fix Blake Bortles and the rest of the roster is pretty damn good.  The 49ers need a complete overhaul after finally booting GM Trent Baalke and letting Chip Kelly go, enter Mike Shanahan as the football czar and Kyle Shanahan as the head coach.  San Diego GM Tom Telesco was also a college teammate of David Caldwell and Josh McDaniels but Phillip Rivers is closer to the end of his career than the beginning and Telesco is likely on a shorter leash than Caldwell.  The Chargers don’t have a natural move here so I think they take a shot on a lesser known quantity, Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin, a good coach that could make the most of Phillip Rivers (he’s been coaching Carson Palmer so he’s used to aging pocket passers).  Now for the quick domino effect, the LA Rams make a trade with the New Orleans Saints for head coach Sean Payton who they hope can bring the best out of Jared Goff.  That leaves the Saints looking for a new head guy and they grab their former assistant Doug Marrone (the interim fill-in for Gus Bradley in Jacksonville, former head coach in Buffalo and at Syracuse).  Marrone is a known quantity to the Saints, he knows Drew Brees and he won’t demand as much money or power as Sean Payton or some other coaches.  That’s seven openings and there are still a few that look safe but might open up.  The Bears could can John Fox but he gets another year, same with Todd Bowles with the Jets.  Marvin Lewis says he’s coming back to Cincinnati but the owner hasn’t proclaimed that just yet.  Jim Irsay might wake up on the wrong side of the bed and clean house in Indianapolis meaning GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano are gone but I think he waits a year and then clears the deck to go after Jim Harbaugh.  The Lions might give Jim Caldwell the boot even after making the playoffs because they team collapsed down the stretch and lost the division to the Packers.  If they do move on, either current coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter (offensive) or Teryl Austin (defensive) could get the nod, they team seems on the right path. The last possible move could be a mutual parting of the Houston Texans and head coach Bill O’Brien.  O’Brien might be smart to get out of Houston before Brock Osweiler does any more damage to his coach’s reputation (reportedly O’Brien was not in favor of giving Osweiler a huge free agent deal last summer).  If Houston loses to a severely wounded Raiders team this week O’Brien may be on the market and he becomes a top candidate for every open job.  I’m certainly going to be wrong about some of these, okay a lot of these, okay probably all of these but maybe I get one or two right.  Perhaps Nick Caserio leaves the Patriots to become the 49ers GM, takes McDaniels with him as head coach and they trade for QB Jimmy Garoppolo, that would make things interesting for sure.  The NFC playoffs look pretty tough with the Cowboys having a great year, the Falcons looking very strong and the Giants and Packers possibly playing the best football of any teams right now.  The Seahawks could beat anyone at any time too.  The Lions aren’t playing great but that still leaves 5 out of 6 teams with a legitimate shot to move forward.  The AFC playoffs don’t exactly look like murder’s row.  The Patriots are clearly the top dog with the Chiefs as the two seed and Pittsburgh at number three.  The Texans, Raiders and Dolphins are all being led by back up QBs or guys that should be back up QBs.  Brock Osweiler may have to step back into his starting role if Tom Savage isn’t cleared in the concussion protocol.  The Raiders already lost Derek Carr and now Matt McGloin has a pinched nerve, good luck Connor Cook you may be making your first career start in the playoffs (don’t worry too much though it might be against Brock Osweiler).  Career back up Matt Moore is leading the Dolphins at this point, don’t worry Dolphin fans you should have Ryan Tannehill ready to go next year, of course you may be without your defensive coordinator Vance Joseph by then.  The best news for the Patriots is that they have a bye week and then will face either the Texans or Raiders unless the Dolphins upset the Steelers, then they would get the Dolphins.  That’s called a win-win for the Pats.  The possible QBs the Patriots might face in their first playoff game this year are Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Matt McGloin, Connor Cook or Matt Moore…wow the AFC was crap this year.

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted because school is busy and the Iowa athletic department schedules crap everyday of November so I have to work at Parking a lot.  Yesterday was the now annual Black Friday football game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Nebraska Cornhuskers and it was the most satisfying and frustrating thing to watch.  Stick with me for a minute.  There are few Hawkeye victories as satisfying as beating the holy crap out of a ranked Nebraska team while simultaneously denying them a chance to win the Big Ten West and head to Indianapolis.  Yet watching Iowa absolutely roll the Huskers defense made me ask WHERE IN THE HELL HAS THIS OFFENSE BEEN ALL YEAR?

I said in my previous rant that LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley are the most talented running back duo Iowa has had in a decade and yesterday Daniels passed the 1000 yard mark on the season and Wadley needs about one good run in a bowl game to join him (he’s 34 yards shy at the moment).  Thanks for proving me right boys.  The Hawkeyes finally found an offensive line combination that works, especially in the run game, and yes it includes leaving Cole Croston on the bench.  LT Boone Myers, LG Keegan Render, C James Daniels, RG Sean Welsh and RT Ike Boettger finally have found a groove and they dominated all day long.  I couldn’t be happier for a Daniels as he’s a senior that stuck it out through a number of injuries that slowed him down year after year and it paid off with a heck of a final season.  Wadley looks like a star and he should be the focal point of the Hawkeye offense next year.  The Iowa offense had 3 plays of over 50 yards against Nebraska after only having 5 the entire rest of the year.  Wadley broke a 75 yard run for a TD, Daniels broke a long one and was tackled inside the ten but he came back two plays later to punch it in for a TD and Riley McCarron caught a 77-yarder for a TD.  Yep, my personal whipping boy McCarron made a huge play.  Do you want to know why?  Because for what seemed like the first time all season instead of handing the ball off on first down Iowa ran a play action pass and Beathard hit McCarron as he crossed over the middle.  Hey, what do you know, if you do something the other team isn’t expecting you might just make a play.  It also put McCarron in a position to do something he’s more comfortable with which is going over the middle.  McCarron isn’t a outside WR and his quickness is better utilized in the way this play is designed.  It helped a whole lot that Beathard put the ball right on the money and McCarron didn’t have to break stride to catch it and he outran the defense.

Iowa’s offensive line took over once the Hawkeyes had built a big lead with their big plays and Nebraska couldn’t seem to slow the Iowa run game.  Again I ask, Where was this offense before?  How did Kirk Ferentz, the offensive line guru, not see the offensive line combination early in the year wasn’t working?  I hear all the time that he’s the college football coach and he’s been doing it for years.  He’s the guy that watches practice everyday so he knows best.  Have you ever heard the phrase “he can’t see the forest through the trees”?  Maybe he’s been too close to it and has preconceived notions when he’s watching practice or game film instead of seeing it for what it was.  Stability in a coaching staff is nice but complacency is not.  I’ve been calling for Greg Davis’ dismissal for a while now and I’m going to double down and say WR coach Bobby Kennedy can take a hike with him.  Iowa’s WR corps has been terrible all year and whether that’s on the actual coaching or the recruiting at the position Kennedy should take the fall for both.  Let’s take a look at the WRs brought in since Kennedy took over the position.

Matt VandeBerg (once you see the rest of list you’ll see his progress as a WR is in spite of Kennedy not because of him).

Jay Scheel (injuries have hampered his development but I’m not sure that’s all that has hampered it)

Jerminic Smith (still young and progressing but he’s the 3rd and final guy to contribute at all)

Adrian Falconer (played a little in the last few games as a RS freshman, I still have hope)

Emmanuel Ogwo (left the team to run track full-time)

Jonathan Parker (moved from RB, really fast, hurt this year, apparently only knows one play in the playbook, has shown nothing as a WR)

Devonte Young (true freshman burned his redshirt year to play a few plays early)

AJ Jones, Andre Harris and Derrick Willies (were part of a 5 man WR class with Derrick Mitchell and Matt VandeBerg.  Jones left after year one, Harris didn’t contribute before leaving after year 3 and Willies had a falling out with the coaching staff after not playing, he had quite a bit of promise and could have really helped this team)

Derrick Mitchell (moved to RB and became a 3rd down specialist last year, hurt much of this year but he’s probably the second best WR on this team and he plays RB)

Ronald Nash (JUCO transfer that just isn’t quite good enough to compete in the Big Ten)

Damond Powell (JUCO transfer that supposedly couldn’t learn the playbook in two years on campus, I’m not sure how that’s possible, trust me it isn’t that complicated)

Ryan Boyle (switched over from QB at the end of spring practice and made a couple of plays in the spring game, because of those plays he looked like a star in comparison to the rest of the guys at WR, he never played a meaningful snap at WR this season)

Oh, what about Riley McCarron you ask (he is actually a fifth-year senior walk-on who pre-dates Kennedy and he’s the best we have right now with Vandeberg out so our best WR isn’t a Kennedy guy)

Just recently Iowa lost two of their three verbal commitments at WR for 2017 Gavin Holmes and Beau Corralles and Kennedy hasn’t been able to close the deal with hometown product Oliver Martin (he’s from Iowa City West).  It looks like there is going to be some big jobs changing over this year in college football and I can only hope some other coach comes calling for Kennedy, it won’t be based on his track record at Iowa but he’s been a WR coach a very long time.  I would really like Davis to retire and Kennedy gone and then promote Brian Ferentz to Offensive Coordinator, let him remain the offensive line coach, and hire a new QB coach (Davis doubles as OC and QB coach now) and find a new WR coach.  Sorry for that tangent but I just had to get that Kennedy rant off my chest.

We know Ferentz isn’t going anywhere since Gary Barta gave him his 10 year extension so my only hope is for some change in he staff to move things along.  I’m in on Brian Ferentz taking over as the OC because I’m not sure Kirk will listen to anyone else about being less predictable and Brian once coached under Bill Belichick so perhaps he picked up something.  There should be plenty of job openings in the state of Texas as Texas, Houston and Baylor are all looking at new staffs coming in with their new coaches, please let Kennedy return to the state and Davis too if he doesn’t want to retire.  Perhaps a new WR coach can get something out of Smith, Scheel, Young, Falconer, Parker, maybe Boyle and incoming freshman (fingers crossed he doesn’t de-commit) Brandon Smith.  Oh and maybe a new WR coach lands Oliver Martin.

8-4 isn’t a bad record and ending it by beating Michigan and Nebraska two of the last three weeks takes some of the sting out of it but it’s a bit of a letdown.  Coming off a Rose Bowl season with a senior QB and a two-headed RB monster in place should have gone better. Iowa never seems to do well when it has expectations so next year should be a good one but if Davis and Kennedy are still around my expectations won’t be much at all.  We are one game away from the end of the CJ Beathard Era and moving on to the Nathan Stanley era presumably, let’s give the kid the best chance at success.

A busy life of work and school including a complete change in my work schedule has made writing anything other than my homework basically impossible.  I have a few minutes on this beautiful Sunday morning after suffering through another lackluster performance by the Hawkeyes yesterday and I thought I would take this opportunity to say thank you to the Golden Gophers for being worse than the Hawks yesterday, I truly appreciate it.

Oh what a difference a year makes.  Last year was all about New Kirk, he was nothing like New Coke, everybody loved New Kirk, New Kirk got a 10 year contract extension that guarantees he’ll coach at Iowa as long as he likes.  Well apparently Old Kirk escaped the dungeon he was locked in and has taken back over and New Kirk is nowhere to found.  And why is Greg Davis calling plays again?  Where’s the guy that was calling plays last year?  Don’t tell me that Jordan Canzeri and Tevaun Smith made that big of a difference in Iowa’s offense.  LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley are the most talented RB duo Iowa has had in about a decade (Shonn Greene was a one-man show).  The loss of Matt Vandeberg is huge, I know, I get it but who the hell decided that Riley McCarron was all of the sudden the go-to guy?  I get that the entire WR corps is struggling to get separation but why are you running plays like bubble screens, that are designed to get guys open quickly, to Riley McCarron?  Where is he going with it?  Why are not running those plays to Jerminic Smith or Jay Scheel?   God forbid you try it to a kid like Devonte Young, you already burned his redshirt you might as well try to use him.  I get that Ronald Nash is older and may know what he’s supposed to do but if he can’t get open or catch the ball when he is what good is he.  That makes him a wide receiver in name only.

Kirk Ferentz is supposed to be an offensive line guru but it took him five weeks to realize his line was playing poorly and that Cole Croston is not a left tackle.  Croston had one of the worst offensive line performances possible against Northwestern and he played better at RT against Minnesota but that’s probably as much a product of a team not having a great pass rusher on his side than him actually getting better.  His footwork is abysmal for a tackle and switching sides doesn’t help that it just lessens the impact because of an inferior opponent.  I understand that Brett Waechter, Iowa’s third OT going into the year, is banged up and hasn’t suited up lately but having no depth at OT is on Ferentz and the coaching staff and their recruiting.  Boone Myers was better at LT against Minnesota than Croston was the first five weeks but that’s setting the bar pretty low.  If Waechter gets healthy I think he’s worth a look.

The defense finally got their s#it together and it couldn’t have come at a better time.  No matter how bad Minnesota is they almost always have a good running game and they have two talented RBs in Smith and Brooks.  Luckily Mitch Leidner is still a terrible passer (and any idiot draft guru that thinks Leidner is even draftable should give up his job and give it to me, I’m looking at you Todd McShay).  Jaleel Johnson and Nathan Bazata finally decided to show up and not get rolled this week, that was very thoughtful of them.  Bazata was blowing people up and Johnson was anchoring very well.  The Hawkeye defense starts up front and I’m not sure what DC Phil Parker or DL coach Reese Morgan said to those two this week but it worked.

FS Brandon Snyder and LB Bo Bower has been the whipping boys the past few weeks and rightfully so, they have been downright awful at times.  This week they both played much better, Bower still struggles in coverage and so does Snyder for that matter but they both made plays this week.  It’s a step in the right direction but they still need work.  The one guy that hasn’t taken as much heat but should is SS Miles Taylor.  Last year he was a tackling machine at times and played well but this year he has regressed badly.  His tackling technique is pitiful and he’s getting routinely trucked by opposing RBs.  I’m starting to wonder if the Hawkeyes should move Snyder to SS where his coverage issues would be lessened and try someone like Jake Gervase or Amani Hooker at FS.  Taylor has taken a noticeable step back and Ferentz may need to consider senior backup Anthony Gair even if it’s just for a series or two to wake Taylor up.

I’m no kicking expert but bringing a kid that has no game experience on a road trip to be your “long” field goal kicker and then asking him to kick a 50-yarder in a hostile environment is probably a bad idea.  Actually I know it’s a bad idea because that’s what Ferentz did yesterday to Miguel Recinos.  The kid lost the place kicking job to true freshman Keith Duncan (sorry Beth Mowins it’s not Keith Urban) and his kickoff job to Ron Coluzzi and then you make him come up to Minnesota and his first attempt is from 50 yards away.  Not a great plan considering his kick came up about 8 yards short, how is he your “long” kicker?  Just let Duncan take the shot at it, he’s your kicker let him kick.

This team has plenty of problems and quite frankly I can’t wait to see next year’s recruiting class with WRs like Brandon Smith, Gavin Holmes, Beau Corrales and hopefully Oliver Martin, hopefully the coaching staff will give them a chance.  Along with playmakers like RBs Eno Benjamin and Ivory Kelly-Martin the Hawkeyes will potentially have some real playmakers, assuming Riley McCarron doesn’t get a 6th year of eligibility and these guys sit on the bench.

END RANT…for now.

Okay, so my work schedule is getting crazier by the day and my Master’s classes are kicking my ass daily so I don’t have a ton of time to write out my thoughts on the NFL season so this is going to be the Quick Hits version.

AFC East

1) New England  2) Miami  3) NY Jets  4) Buffalo

I don’t care if Brady is out for the first four games that still leaves 12 games and they may only need 11 wins to win this division (Brady’s revenge return is going to be scary).  I think Adam Gase can get the Dolphins’ offense moving in the right direction but the defense I’m not so sure about over the full season.  There is no way Ryan Fitzpatrick can repeat his performance from last season, I mean he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick for heaven’s sake.  I like Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo but the injuries are piling up on defense and they need LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins to stay healthy all year, I’ll believe that when I see it.

AFC North

1) Cincinnati  2) Pittsburgh  3) Baltimore  4) Cleveland

The Bengals and Steelers are going to duke it out for this division and I think Cincinnati has just enough to pull it out.  I like the Bengals defense a little bit better than the somewhat changing of the guard the Steelers are going through.  Baltimore can’t stay healthy and they are counting on Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs to not just vanish into dust so that’s not comforting.  The Browns are the Browns until they prove otherwise, Hue Jackson is a good coach but he’s not a magician.  The Browns just traded uber-bust CB Justin Gilbert to the Steelers, nothing like sabotaging your competition.  I’m even more convinced about the Bengals over the Steelers now.

AFC South

1) Jacksonville  2) Houston  3) Indianapolis  4) Tennessee

Yep, I’m on the bandwagon.  I think Blake Bortles is going to have a fantastic year and Gus Bradley has many toys to play with on defense.  The Jags have rebuilt the right way and their patience with a plan and a coach is about to pay off.  There is a lot of skepticism about Brock Osweiler’s big contract in Houston but I think he’s the right trigger man for Bill O’Brien’s offense and there is no looming Peyton Manning shadow.  He’s got a very good WR group and Lamar Miller to hand off to, oh and the Texans defense is pretty good. A healthy Andrew Luck makes the Colts good on offense but that defense isn’t very good and looking around the division the offenses look pretty solid so that could be trouble.  Tennessee is still in the rebuilding phase but a solid offensive line with two good RBs and Marcus Mariota is a really good place to start.  The Titans defense still needs work.

AFC West

1) Oakland  2)Kansas City  3)Denver  4)San Diego

I’m on the Raider bandwagon too.  They have also been doing the rebuild the right way and they have their QB in Derek Carr and some really nice pieces on offense.  They invested in the line to protect Carr and that helps a lot.  Their defense should be salty with Khalil Mack leading the charge.  I like what KC has done just being steady and Andy Reid will always have them ready to go.  Denver’s vaunted defense took a couple of key hits that I don’t think they adequately replaced (Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan). Certainly Von Miller will dominate but their offense is led by Trevor Simien.  The sooner they turn the keys over to Paxton Lynch at QB the better and I’m betting DeVontae Booker takes CJ Anderson’s job before week 6.  The Chargers are not off to a great start having rookie Joey Bosa holdout, it’s been quite a while since a rookie held out.  They need him on defense and now he’s going to be behind.  A healthy offensive line would go a long way to curing their ills on that side of the ball and they play in a division with some fantastic defenses.  They need Melvin Gordon to show up too.

NFC East

1) NY Giants  2) Washington  3) Philadelphia  4) Dallas

No offense to Kirk Cousins but when in doubt about a division go with the team with the best QB and in this division that’s Eli Manning.  The Giants defense should be greatly improved and if their offensive line gives Manning half a second he can throw it to Odell Beckham a lot.  Two names on the Giants to remember; WR Sterling Shepard and DE Owa Odighizuwa, break out players.  Cousins has to come back to Earth a little bit and I’m not sure the running game is built to bail them out.  I like Doug Pederson but it’s year 1 in Philly and he just pushed all his chips in on Carson Wentz.  Bradford was never a great solution and getting a first round pick for him was highway robbery.  The Cowboys are going to get a long look at rookie QB Dak Prescott and find out if he’s the QB of the future (and by future I mean right now).  He looked good in the preseason but lots of guys have looked good in the preseason before.  Oh yeah, and no one has any idea who’s rushing the passer for the Cowboys for at least the first 4 weeks of the year.  It’s a pick’em for last place in this division between the two rookie QB led teams, I’m going with the Philly D over Dallas’ D…but just by a little.

NFC North

1) Green Bay  2) Detroit  3) Minnesota  4) Chicago

Teddy Bridgewater’s knee injury essentially hands this division to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  It would have been a fun fight to watch between those two teams.  The Packers are clearly better on both sides of the ball than the rest of the division now.  I’m giving Detroit 2nd place because their offense actually looked solid last year after the coordinator change to Jim Bob Cooter.  I mention this only because it’s the only way I get to say Jim Bob Cooter (that’s really his name).  The Detroit defense is better than you think. Minnesota now has Shaun Hill at QB for week one presumably, Hill is a solid veteran backup QB, the key words there are solid and backup.  The desperation trade for Sam Bradford might help but this isn’t a baseball team plugging a new starting pitcher into the rotation, this is a much tougher transition.  By the way, the irony of a team trading for Sam Bradford to replace their injured starting QB is epic.  Good luck Adrian Peterson, it’s tough when you have 6 blockers and the defense has 9 guys within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage.  John Fox is still trying to work some magic on that defense in Chicago and in the mean time he’ll lean on Jay Cutler and Jeremy Langford on offense.  Sorry Bears fans that was supposed to be comforting but then I read “Cutler” and “Langford” and it just doesn’t feel all that comforting.

NFC South

1) Carolina  2) Tampa Bay  3) New Orleans  4) Atlanta

The Panthers were a surprise last year going 15-1 and making the Super Bowl and I’m going to believe they don’t drop off that much.  Cam Newton took a major step forward and won the MVP award but he needs someone to help him because teams are going to figure out ways to at least slow him down.  I think Tampa Bay makes a small leap this year with Jameis Winston and Doug Martin leading the way on offense and the defense improving just enough.  New Orleans defense can’t be as bad as it’s been and I think Drew Brees will have the offense moving right along, watch out for rookie WR Michael Thomas.  The Falcons got off to hot start last year and then fell off a cliff.  I’m not sure they did enough on defense to improve much and besides Julio Jones I’m not sure who Matt Ryan is planning on throwing the ball to…and don’t say Mohamed Sanu, that’s not scaring anyone (except Falcons fans).

NFC West

1) Arizona  2) Seattle  3) Los Angeles  4) San Francisco

Arizona’s offense should continue to be potent as long as they can keep Carson Palmer upright and breathing.  The defense got a nice boost with their trade acquisition of Chandler Jones from the Patriots, he’s a difference maker for that front seven.  Seattle is still tough even if their defense isn’t quite up to their Super Bowl caliber squad and Russell Wilson will keep the offense going but he might be running for his life behind a suspect offensive line.  The Los Angeles Rams (hell yeah, got it right) are a work in progress but any team with Case Keenum at QB and Jeff Fisher as their coach should be picked to finish last, unless of course they are in a division with this 49ers team.  Chip Kelly’s experiment failed in Philly and now he’s trying it with Blaine Gabbert at QB.  The 49ers roster was deep and talented about 4 years ago…oh how quickly things change in the NFL.  The good news for 49er fans is Chip Kelly has a really good chance of coaching Deshaun Watson next year…if he comes out a year early.

AFC Playoffs

New England, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Oakland

Wildcard teams: Pittsburgh and Houston

AFC Championship: New England vs. Cincinnati

AFC Champion: New England

NFC Playoffs

NY Giants, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona

Wildcard teams: Tampa Bay and Washington

NFC Championship: Green Bay vs. Arizona

NFC Champion: Green Bay

Super Bowl Champion:  New England Patriots (Roger Goodell has to hand the Lombardi Trophy and the Super Bowl MVP trophy to Tom Brady)

 

Individual Awards

MVP Award

Favorites: QB Cam Newton, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Andrew Luck, DE JJ Watt, QB Tom Brady

Dark horse: QB Blake Bortles

Newton could repeat but that’s fairly hard to do so don’t bet on it.  Rodgers and Luck will always have to be considered when they are healthy.  Watt just keeps racking up Defensive Player of the Year trophies so sooner or later he has to get legitimate MVP consideration.  Bortles is poised to make the leap and the Jags offense looks ready to shine.

My Pick: QB Tom Brady

I’m going with the pissed off, back for revenge and redemption with fully inflated footballs, Tom Brady.  He only gets 12 games but he will be on a mission.  Call it a homer pick, I don’t care…anything to stick it to Goodell.

Defensive Player of the Year

Favorites: DE JJ Watt (it’s his award until he gives it up).  Just in case Watt’s back injury slows him down.  LB Von Miller and  DE/OLB Khalil Mack would be my other top choices.

Dark horses: OLB Anthony Barr; OLB Chandler Jones

Barr could be a wrecking machine for the Vikings and if they are going to overcome Teddy Bridgewater’s injury they are going to need an elite season on defense and it starts with Barr.  Von Miller is a beast so he will make some noise.  Chandler Jones looks like a great fit in Arizona at OLB and this may be a trade that comes back to haunt the Patriots.  I understand they have a number of young guys on defense and can’t pay them all but they may have given up the wrong guy.

My Pick: DE/OLB Khalil Mack

He is about to be let loose on the NFL and with a couple of guys like free agent Bruce Irvin and rookie DE Shilique Calhoun around to take some attention away Mack could be in for a 20 sack season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Favorites: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Will Fuller, WR Tyler Boyd, WR Sterling Shepard

Dark horse: Devontae Booker

Elliott could run away with this award (sorry about the pun) and the only thing holding him back will be teams stacking up to stop him and daring the Cowboys to count on Dak Prescott to win games.  Elliott is special and so is the Cowboys offensive line.  Fuller has made some noise in the preseason being Brock Osweiler’s deep ball threat, if he doesn’t drop too many balls he will put on a show.  Sterling Shepard is a great fit in the Giants offense and the only thing that might slow him down is if Victor Cruz actual gets back to being his old self…yeah I don’t see that happening either.  I sincerely believe Booker will take CJ Anderson’s job and he will excel in Gary Kubiak’s run game.  He’s the steal of the draft but he doesn’t have the greatest QBs around to take a little pressure off.

My Pick: WR Tyler Boyd

Elliott is just too easy of a pick so I’m going against the grain.  I loved this guy throughout the draft process, I had the Bengals picking him and they did and now he’s stepped up to be the slot receiver they were looking for.  He won’t be the #1 WR because the Bengals have AJ Green but that actually helps him because Boyd will feast on single coverage.  He’s also the reason I don’t think the Bengals offense misses a beat this year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Favorites: LB Myles Jack, DB Jalen Ramsey, LB Darron Lee

Dark horses: LB Deion Jones, DE Noah Spence

Jack isn’t even a starter in Jacksonville but he’ll play in a lot of sub packages and in many places.  Ramsey is the best defender in the rookie class but we will see how he is used and how many INT opportunities he gets.  Winning the rookie award is about stats, especially on defense (Sacks and interceptions make headlines). Deion Jones doesn’t get a lot of pub but he’s going to rack up the tackles in Atlanta where their other LBs don’t tackle enough.  Speaking of tackling Darron Lee is going to be playing behind one of the best defensive lines in football for the NY Jets which means he’ll be plenty clean to run around tackling everything in sight.  Lee is a speed demon and is in the perfect place for his skills.  Big, huge tackle numbers for Lee in New York.

My Pick: DE Noah Spence

I said the award was about stats and truthfully there isn’t a dominant looking DE from early in the draft with Joey Bosa’s holdout putting him behind in development, Shaq Lawson being injured and DeForest Buckner not really in a position to put up big sack numbers.  Spence starts the season as the third DE in Tampa Bay but he’ll be the designated pass rushing specialist and he could be dominating in that role.  He’ll make the most of his snaps and put up a sack total in the mid teens.

 

The Hawkeye Defense

It’s Desmond King’s world and we’re just living in it. This is King’s defense for sure but he won’t have to do it all himself.  LB Josey Jewell looks to build on his breakout sophomore season in the middle of the Hawkeye defense and he lines up behind behemoth DT Jaleel Johnson who also had a great year last year as a first time starter.  The Hawkeyes also returns starters DT Nathan Bazata, LB Ben Niemann, CB Greg Mabin and SS Miles Taylor giving the Hawkeyes a solid foundation on the defensive side of the ball.  The loss of DEs Drew Ott and Nate Meier, LB Cole Fisher and FS Jordan Lomax will be felt but the team has some players ready to step up.

Let’s get into it.

Defensive Line

Starters

Defensive End: Parker Hesse   (So)                                           Matt Nelson   (So)

Hesse stepped in last season as the starter when Drew Ott went down with his injuries and for a guy that has only switched from LB to DE late the year before and was still undersized he played pretty well. He wasn’t Drew Ott but he held his own and his future looks bright.  He’s put on some more size, which is good, and hopefully he will advance with his pass rush skills and bring a little heat off the edge.  Matt Nelson was a big get in recruiting a few years ago and at 6’8 he brings an intriguing frame to the position.  That 6’8 frame is part of the reason it has taken him a few years to get on the field as he needed to add weight and strength and learn how to use leverage before getting out there against college competition.  My sincere hope is that Nelson has learned some ideas about getting his hands in the passing lanes if he can’t get to the QB because with his height and wingspan batting down passes should be quite natural.

Defensive Tackle: Jaleel Johnson   (Sr)                                       Nathan Bazata   (Jr)

Johnson waited his turn behind previous DT stalwarts Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat and he didn’t miss a beat once he took over the starting role last season. He is a beast on the interior not just plugging up running lanes but collapsing the pocket.  Johnson has made a name for himself and he’s made life easier on the LBs playing behind him and the guys next to him.  Speaking of the guys next to him Bazata wasn’t the first name people thought of a year ago that would start next to Johnson but he earned his starting spot.  He’s not the biggest bull in the shop but he’s one of the strongest.  Bazata doesn’t give ground and when Johnson isn’t collapsing the pocket Bazata is.  They make for a very effective duo in the middle of the defensive line and that’s where it all starts for this defense.

Backups

Defensive End: Anthony Nelson   (RS Fr)                                     Sam Brincks   (So)

That’s right people the two deeps at DE are three sophomores and a redshirt freshman. To say there isn’t much help in the upperclassmen ranks is not true…there is NO help because there are no junior or senior DEs on the roster.  Anthony Nelson (no he’s not Matt’s brother) faces the same problem Matt faced in getting ready to play, he’s 6’7 so he still needs to add bulk and learn a few things but he’s hopefully going to help out as a pass rusher while he learns.  Sam Brincks is a walk-on that has earned his spot in the two deeps going into fall camp but he’s got a whole host of youngsters that will be nipping at his heels by the time camp is over.  Brincks has a little more size to him at 6’5 and around 270 lbs. so that and his practice experience gives him an advantage over some of the incoming freshmen for sure.

Defensive Tackle: Faith Ekakitie   (Sr)                                            Jake Hulett   (Jr)

Ekakitie got plenty of playing time last year and he should be a really good third DT in a rotation with Johnson and Bazata, he has the ability to backup both of them and that’s helpful. He hasn’t blossomed into the dominant defensive lineman many hoped he would be when he was a four-star recruit so many moons ago but he’s a player and he’s a solid talent for a backup.  Much like DE the DT depth chart isn’t exploding with upperclassmen talent and Jake Hulett is another walk-on that has worked his way up the depth chart and earned a place in the two deeps.  Like Brincks, Hulett has a physical and experience advantage over the youngsters but that might not stop them from breaking through.

The Future:

Michael Slater (RS Fr), Brady Reiff (RS Fr), Garrett Jansen (RS Fr), Cedric Lattimore (Fr), Chauncey Golston (Fr), Austin Schulte (Fr), Brandon Simon (Fr), Romeo McKnight (Fr)

I was going to break these guys down into DE and DT but the other than Garrett Jansen almost certainly being a DT I’m not sure the decision of where to play any of these guys is a certainty. There is a very high likelihood that a couple of these guys play on the line this year but it’s up to them to beat out the others.  Jansen is a natural fit at DT but he’s still a little light, not that that has ever stopped a DT at Iowa.  The other two redshirt freshmen Slater and Reiff could earn some time but both are still growing and they could contribute as DEs or they could be quick, undersized players inside at DT.  Schulte, Simon and McKnight are all incoming freshmen that missed their senior seasons in high school because of injury so they are looking to come in and continue their rehab but any one of them could surprise and earn some time.  Lattimore and Golston are high school teammates from Michigan and either could contribute but Lattimore has a size advantage and could help out at either DE or DT.  If I were a betting man I would put my money on Lattimore making some noise in camp and probably not redshirting.

Linebacker

Starters

Outside Linebacker: Ben Niemann   (Jr)

Niemann has the thankless job of playing the OLB spot in the Hawkeye defense where he gets to lineup over the TE and cover slot receivers from time to time. He did a fantastic job last year stepping in as a first year starter.  He has the length and athleticism to cover down field and yet he’s an excellent tackler and knows how to play the run.  Niemann was overshadowed a bit by the spectacular play of MLB Josey Jewell and the great story of fifth-year senior Cole Fisher earning a starting spot and being Iowa’s top tackler but he’s a fantastic player who should only get better with experience.

Middle Linebacker: Josey Jewell   (Jr)

“The Outlaw” Josey Jewell spent his sophomore season breaking out and earning his nickname. After a tough redshirt freshman season replacing the Morris, Kirksey and Hitchens LB corps Jewell settled in at MLB last season and was sensational.  He found his place and his comfort zone and became a leader of the team even earning the title of captain.  Jewell was breaking in with his classmate Niemann on one side and veteran Fisher on the other and this year he’ll take on an even bigger role as a leader with Fisher gone from the position and breaking in a new starter on the weakside.  It is Desmond King’s defense but there is no doubt who the defensive quarterback is out on the field, it’s Jewell.

Weakside Linebacker: Aaron Mends   (So)

Cole Fisher stepped up big last year as a fifth-year senior and took the WLB spot and made it his own. He had spent years playing special teams and he never stopped fighting for a chance and it paid off.  Mends is an undersized LB with speed to burn and fits the mold of the run-and-chase LB.  Fisher was a tackling machine in 2015 and it’s up to Mends to fill those shoes, he also has the task of trying to hold off his competition for the job, Jack Hockaday.  It won’t be an easy task.

Backups Outside Linebacker:  Bo Bower   (Jr)

It feels like Bower has been around forever but that’s only because a few years ago he was a walk-on that earned the starting job replacing James Morris at MLB during his redshirt year. He played pretty well for a redshirt freshman walk-on that was replacing a four-year starter but he was never going to live up to that level.  Bower moved around some and now he’s settled in behind Niemann and he’s a pretty valuable, versatile backup that can help out all over and play special teams.

Middle Linebacker: Angelo Garbutt   (RS Fr)

Out of the 11 backup defensive players this is probably the one the coaches’ least want to see have to play, no offense to Garbutt but he has the unenviable task of backing up Jewell. If Desmond King has to come out of a game the coaches know Josh Jackson can play a little.  Garbutt is a redshirt freshman that would have to replace the quarterback of the defense.  He is young and he’ll probably get lots of snaps on special teams but unless the Hawkeyes are up by 35 pts in the fourth quarter he probably isn’t lining up at MLB.

Weakside Linebacker: Jack Hockaday   (So)

This is still a bit of a position battle but Mends has so far held off Hockaday in the race to replace Cole Fisher. Hockaday brings a little more size to the position but isn’t quite as fast.  The coaches played Hockaday last year on special teams to get him some experience and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get regular playing time replacing Mends from time to time or potentially backing up the other spots.

The Future

Nick Wilson (RS Fr), Barrington Wade (Fr), Kristian Welch (Fr), Kyle Taylor (Fr), Nick Niemann (Fr), Amani Jones (Fr)

The Hawkeyes have three guys in Hockaday, Garbutt and Nick Wilson (they had Justin Jinning too but he left) in the 2015 class and they played Hockaday and redshirted the other two and then decided to load up in the 2016 class with five prospects. It seems highly unlikely to keep 7 players at one position in one class so some of the true freshman are likely to see time on special team’s coverage units.  It is unlikely any of them get playing time at LB but stranger things have happened.  Barrington Wade was a highly productive RB in high school and he still needs to grow into the LB position but his athleticism could make him a candidate to play.  Kristian Welch has the size to play LB or he could eventually move to TE if LB gets too crowded and he gets bigger, I could also see him at DE down the road (although that doesn’t seem like a need position either).  Kyle Taylor and Nick Niemann are the younger brothers of two Hawkeye starters (SS Miles Taylor and OLB Ben Niemann) and both need to physically mature but they bring good size and good genes to the position.  Amani Jones was a bit of a forgotten man in the 2016 recruiting class but he has good athleticism for the position.  I’m going with Wade and Jones contributing on special teams, no good reason just a hunch (that means there’s a 99.1% chance they redshirt, I may have made up that statistic).

Defensive Back

Starters

Cornerback: Desmond King   (Sr)                                              Greg Mabin   (Sr)

Desmond King was sensational last year and he won the Jim Thorpe Award for the best defensive back in college football to prove it then somehow he made the decision to forgo the NFL draft to return to the Hawkeyes. He has a chance to get his name and number up on the press box at Kinnick Stadium by becoming a two-time consensus All-American and become one of the most decorated players in Iowa history.  He’s been a special player since day one and he is the epitome of what Kirk Ferentz has used to build the Hawkeye program, an overlooked recruit that was just a great football player with a great work ethic and fantastic instincts.  By the way, no one has ever won the Thorpe Award twice, not even Jim Thorpe, go get it Desmond.  Greg Mabin will go down as the most overshadowed three-year starter in Hawkeye history.  Mabin is a very good CB with a few issues here and there (he’s a little inconsistent) but he has been up to the challenge of lining up across from one of the most feared CBs in college football.  It takes a certain level of confidence to know the other team prefers to throw it your way as much as possible and Mabin has never backed down.  He could really get on NFL teams’ radars with a big year because at 6’2 200 lbs. he’s exactly the type of big corner teams like, not as much as they like King but they still like guys like Mabin.

Safety: Miles Taylor   (Jr)                                                                Brandon Snyder   (So)

At this time last year Taylor was holding off Brandon Snyder in a competition to start opposite Jordan Lomax and when he won Snyder slid over to backup Lomax and now he’s the new starter at free safety. Taylor was better equipped to play strong safety and he proved it by being a good enforcer not only in the passing game but in the running game.  Taylor knows how to hit people so they remember him and Snyder is better suited to play center field.  Snyder is continuing the long line of walk-on safeties to earn a scholarship and a starting job.  Everyone just hopes he turns out the way those guys did on the field.  The team would be best off if these two remain healthy because the depth behind them leaves a lot to be desired.

Backups

Cornerback: Josh Jackson   (So)                                                  Michael Ojemudia   (RS Fr)

Jackson stepped up last season to become the nickel back and while he was limited in spring practice he showed some nice skills and has matured on the field. Ojemudia came to Iowa as a safety but moved to CB and has found a home.  He is still raw but with Greg Mabin missing spring practice with a shoulder injury and Jackson being limited with his own shoulder problem Ojemudia got plenty of reps and the coaches seemed to take a liking to him at CB.  The top 4 CBs are solid but after Ojemudia it gets very thin.

Safety: Anthony Gair   (Sr)                                                            Jake Gervase   (So)

Compared to safety the CB position is in great shape. Anthony Gair had a few nice moments last year but he’s a fifth-year senior that has always been just good enough to not be a starter.  He’s fine here and there but if Taylor or Snyder go down for any length of time things could get interesting.  Gervase is a sophomore walk-on that played well enough in the spring to come into fall camp in the two deeps.  I don’t know much about Gervase and I hope we keep it that way.

The Future

CB Manny Rugumba (Fr), CB Cedric Boswell (Fr), S Amani Hooker (Fr-his future is now)

Behind the top 4 CBs the team has incoming freshmen Rugumba and Boswell (fellow incoming freshman Lance Billings already quit the team during the summer and went home). Rugumba is a fantastic athlete that could play WR but with the lack of depth he’s needed at CB.  He could play if need be but the team has to be hoping the top 4 hold up all year.  Boswell has a little bit farther to go but he could be called on in a pinch.  Amani Hooker is the one to watch in defensive backfield.  He was a major playmaking safety in high school and I have a feeling he’s going to make his way up the depth chart behind Taylor and Snyder rather quickly.  It is possible if the Hawkeyes need him he could play CB especially in the nickel covering the slot.  Hooker has immense talent and Phil Parker has never shied away from playing freshman in the secondary (hello Desmond King).  I think Hooker brings the type of instincts King showed early in his career just at a different position, they both have an awareness about their positions that can’t be taught.  We can only hope he has the same type of impact.  The secondary could be quite short if injuries pile up at one position and with Mabin and Jackson having shoulder issues during the spring that is a legitimate concern.  I haven’t mentioned the 2017 recruiting class much except at WR (it is coming together quite nicely) because those guys aren’t signed yet and won’t be until February of 2017 but there is a reason Iowa has 4 verbal commitments at DB and isn’t done recruiting the position yet.

Punter

You know I don’t know anything about punting except I know good punting when I see it and bad punting when I see it. Redshirt freshman Colton Rastetter is listed as the starting punter on the depth chart backed up by kicker Miguel Recinos.  We can all hope Rastetter can do it or incoming fifth-year senior Central Michigan transfer Ron Coluzzi can take the job otherwise Recinos may be kicking and punting.