The 2018 NFL Draft will be defined by the QB position.  Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen are the three big early entries that head up the class. However, there are two Heisman Trophy winners, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, and a couple of very accomplished seniors Mason Rudolph and Luke Falk that add intrigue at the position.  Underclassmen have until January 15^th to declare and NC State’s Ryan Finley and Missouri’s Drew Lock are two more interesting prospects that could enter the draft although it looks like they will return to school.  Rosen and Darnold are the favorites for the overall #1 spot and while each one has their strengths they have their flaws too.  Allen is a lottery ticket with his great athleticism and powerful arm.  He could be the next Brett Favre or the next Kyle Boller.  Mayfield and Jackson are polarizing prospects because they don’t fit the traditional NFL QB profile but they are serious playmakers.  Two other major positions of strength on offense are the offensive line and running back.  Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Bryce Love, Ronald Jones II and Kerryon Johnson are underclassmen that are all special talents.  Georgia’s duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are highly accomplished and San Diego St’s Rashaad Penny and Iowa’s Akrum Wadley also had storied collegiate careers.  After last year’s lackluster offensive line class this draft class features five offensive tackles that should be first round picks (Mike McGlinchy, Orlando Brown, Connor Williams, Chukwura Okorafor and Kolton Miller) and one of the highest rated OGs, Quenton Nelson, in quite some time.  The defensive side isn’t quite as strong but DE Bradley Chubb, DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, LB Roquan Smith and S Derwin James are top-notch players at their positions.

1. Cleveland Browns (0-16): Josh Rosen   QB   UCLA

The Browns never-ending quest to find a QB continues as they have passed up guys like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson the last couple of years and have learned to regret those decisions.  Rosen doesn’t want to go to Cleveland, and I can’t blame him but he goes #1 overall so he’ll get over it.  I called Rosen as the #1 overall pick of the 2018 draft two years ago when he was playing out of his mind as a freshman starter for the Bruins.  He has every physical gift you could want and can make every NFL throw.  There are two things teams have to investigate, his health and his attitude.  Rosen has missed time the last two seasons and this year it was concussions that were an issue.  That’s never a good thing when looking for a long-term solution at any position but the Browns need a full-time answer at QB not a question mark.  Rosen is a different guy also, he has a bit of a golden boy image and that can rub people the wrong way.  I would take the chance that Rosen ends up being closer to Tom Brady than Jimmy Clausen and the Browns have to find a solution at QB.  I think Rosen is the more consistent player on the field than Darnold.

2. New York Giants (3-13): Mike McGlinchy   OT   Notre Dame

Everybody wants to talk about the Giants replacing Eli Manning with this pick but unless the Browns pass on a QB again or they really like Darnold, I’m not buying it.  The Giants have ignored their offensive line issues for too long and it’s time to get things straightened out.  McGlinchy isn’t flashy but he’s long and talented and he would be a massive upgrade at LT over Ereck Flowers.  I’ve said it since the Giants drafted Flowers but he needs to be a RT not a LT.  Drafting McGlinchy, inserting him at LT and moving Flowers to RT would improve two positions on the line and help the offense immensely.  They shouldn’t stop with just one o-lineman either, think at least 2 or 3 in this draft.  The only thing that makes me think the Giants might go another way is that new GM Dave Gettleman routinely ignored the offensive line in the draft when he was running the Panthers so it’s possible he goes with DE Bradley Chubb, that would be a very Giants thing to do.

3. Indianapolis Colts (4-12): Bradley Chubb   DE   NC State

Despite the fact that the Colts are picking third they might actually have the worst roster in the NFL.  If they hold on to TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief then they don’t need a WR but that’s about the only position they don’t need help.  They are counting on Andrew Luck to get healthy and return to full strength at QB but even that isn’t guaranteed.  That means they are in a position to go with the best talent available and that’s Chubb.  Luckily the Colts could really use some help rushing the passer so he’s a great fit.  He has some versatility and could be a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB depending on who’s coaching the Colts next year.  I could also make a pretty good argument for drafting RB Saquon Barkley (Frank Gore can’t play forever), DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (the secondary is atrocious) or even OG Quenton Nelson (they should really try to keep Andrew Luck alive).  The Colts almost can’t go wrong…I said almost.

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston 4-12): Saquon Barkley   RB   Penn St.

As bad as the Browns were this season it mostly falls on the offense as the defense was actually in the top half of the league (12^th overall).  The defense has some solid building blocks like DE Myles Garrett, LBs Jaime Collins and Christian Kirksey and S Jabrill Peppers.  The offense gets Rosen first but they need more playmakers.  The best thing you can do for a young QB is get him a good, reliable RB to lean on.  Barkley is a special talent and is a powerful runner and a fantastic pass catcher.  Isaiah Crowell is simply a solid RB but he’s not a game breaker.  The Browns spent some money on their offensive line last offseason with a new C and OG and if Joe Thomas comes back healthy they could really open things up for Barkley.  I could make an argument for DB Minkah Fitzpatrick as the Browns pass defense was behind their rush defense and an argument could be made for WR Courtland Sutton if they team doesn’t want to count on Josh Gordon.  Barkley is a special talent and if they really want to give their offense and new QB Josh Rosen a chance they should draft Barkley.

5. Denver Broncos (5-11): Quenton Nelson   OG   Notre Dame

This will be a popular place to put a QB in mock drafts and with the depth chart in Denver having Brock Osweiler, Trevor Simien and Paxton Lynch on it that’s not a terrible idea.  I could argue that the best option on the roster for the Broncos next season at QB could be Chad Kelly, a rookie that spent the entire year on injured reserve.  I think John Elway is more likely to make a move for Kirk Cousins or try to pry Eli Manning away from the Giants than draft a QB to be his starter.  This team, the defense especially, is built to win now not 3-4 years from now.  Whoever lines up behind center next season would be better off if they Broncos improve their offensive line.  It’s rare to see a OG go this high but the consensus is that Nelson is a special blocker and he could put some punch back in the Broncos run game, that would certainly help any QB they get.  If he moves in at LG he could also help LT Garrett Bolles who had an inconsistent rookie season for the Broncos.

6. New York Jets (5-11): Sam Darnold   QB   USC

The Jets somehow managed to not completely suck this year and they are sticking with their GM/Coach combination.  It’s seems like they want to bring back Josh McCown but clearly Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg are not the future at QB and Darnold is full of potential.  It’s possible Darnold is gone by this spot and if that’s the case they could reach for Allen.  If the Jets don’t like their QB options they could make an even smarter choice and try to fix their offensive line.  OTs Orlando Brown, Connor Williams or Kolton Miller would all be solid choices.  The offensive line is a deep position this year so they could wait until round 2 to address it, but they really do need to address it.  I’m not a huge Darnold fan.  I see the potential teams are looking at but really, he only looked good for 7 games last year and a few times this year.  He’s inconsistent, turnover prone and really could have used more playing time in college.  If the Jets draft him and bring back McCown so they can bring him along slowly that would be a much better move.  They have to fix their offensive line before throwing an untested kid out there or they are likely to destroy him before he ever gets started (think Houston Texans and David Carr).

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Minkah Fitzpatrick   DB   Alabama

Fitzpatrick is listed as a DB because he could end up being a safety or a corner depending on the needs of the team that drafts him and in this case the Buccaneers need both so he’s a great choice.  The Bucs pass defense was dead last in the league this year and while they could improve it with a better pass rush too Fitzpatrick is a far higher rated player than any pass rusher unless Chubb falls this far (not going to happen).  He could be a replacement for Brent Grimes and be the bigger CB complement to the slightly shorter Vernon Hargreaves or he could replace Chris Conte or TJ Ward at safety.  A versatile defender with superior upside is exactly what the Bucs defense needs.

8. Chicago Bears (5-11): Orlando Brown   OT   Oklahoma

Mitchell Trubisky looks like he’s a keeper at QB and that’s great news for a franchise that’s been looking for a QB for forever.  Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen make a nice duo at RB so the Bears have a few pieces on offense they can build around.  Their WR corps leaves a lot to be desired as they can’t count on Kevin White to be healthy and they need Cameron Meredith to return to health next season.  WR has some players they could grab but this might be a bit high for anyone not named Courtland Sutton.  They like LT Charles Leno, Jr even if he’s not an elite LT.  However, RT Bobbie Massie needs to be replaced.  Brown is a gigantic human being at 6’8 360 lbs. and would a massive upgrade over Massie and he could eventually replace Leno if he struggles.  Brown could help their running game by opening holes for Howard and Cohen.  At this point an OT is more valuable to them then a WR so Brown is the better choice.

9. San Francisco 49ers (6-10): Courtland Sutton   WR   SMU

The 49ers found their QB in Jimmy Garoppolo now they have to get him some help.  Marquise Goodwin became a favorite target of Jimmy G but he needs a complement.  Goodwin is a small and fast WR while Sutton is 6’4 215 lbs. beast that will add a dimension they don’t currently have.  They could choose to add one of the many OT prospects to protect their new franchise QB but getting him a top WR seems more pressing.  If they go OT it could be Kolton Miller or Connor Williams but the depth at OT is better than the depth at WR so they can wait.  They gave up their 2^nd round pick to get Garoppolo but that was a price well worth paying for a franchise QB.

10. Oakland Raiders (6-10): Kolton Miller   OT   UCLA

The Raiders need defensive help especially at CB but unless they are willing to grab Josh Jackson from Iowa or Denzel Ward from Ohio St. they will have to look elsewhere.  Jackson and Ward are good prospects but this seems a little high all the way up at 10.  The other thing this team found out this year is their offensive line was a huge part of their success in 2016 and the failure of that line really hampered them in 2017.  Donald Penn ended the season injured and he’s 34 years old.  Grabbing a young, athletic OT like Miller to protect Derek Carr’s blindside for the foreseeable future is a pretty good idea.  Jon Gruden is coming back to coach this team so I would guess he’ll work to get the offense back on track before fixing the defense.

11. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Roquan Smith   LB   Georgia

If you look at the numbers it was the Dolphins offense that was the problem this year and their defense wasn’t horrible but that’s a case of misleading stats.  This won’t be their offense next year as I expect them to bring back Ryan Tannehill and give Adam Gase a chance to work his magic again.  They need some help at OG but that can come later.  They lost Raekwon McMillan before he ever had a chance to do anything and now Kiko Alonso hurt his neck in week 17.  Lawrence Timmons is 100 in football years and Mike Hull is just a guy, this team needs LBs.  Smith is the top guy at the position and they could use his speed and playmaking ability.  If for some reason they cut bait on Tannehill and don’t bring in a real veteran option (Jay Cutler doesn’t count) then I suppose drafting Josh Allen is a possibility but I can’t see them starting over at QB just yet.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9): Chukwura Okorafor   OT   Western Michigan

Okorafor comes from Western Michigan but don’t let his level of competition fool you, this kid can dominate.  He’s 6’6 330 lbs. and would make a great blindside OT for the Bengals.  The Bengals two young tackles Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher haven’t distinguished themselves and both are dealing with ailments.  Okorafor can step in at LT and let Ogbuehi and Fisher fight it out to be the RT.  Having the loser of that competition be the third tackle would allow the team to not have to rely on Eric Winston, they need to let that man retire in peace.  The team could be looking to move on from Andy Dalton but if they do they will likely just try to bring back AJ McCarron and give him a shot.  Regardless of which QB they go with they could really use some steady blocking up front, they missed Andrew Whitworth more than they care to admit.

13. Washington Redskins (7-9): Derwin James   S   Florida St.

If the Redskins let Kirk Cousins walk in free agency then all bets are off on this pick but it’s hard to see them grabbing Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield or someone else here.  The Redskins run defense hasn’t been very good and while you don’t normally think of a safety being drafted to fix a run defense James isn’t your usual safety prospect.  Going into the year the thought of James falling to 15^th overall was crazy but he didn’t have a great year, much like the rest of the Seminoles.  However, he’s a unique talent that can play all over and will improve the Redskins defense in many ways.  Washington needs help in a couple of places in the middle of the defense and James’ versatility would be a welcome addition.

14. Green Bay Packers (7-9): Anthony Miller   WR   Memphis

The Packers spent some money to lock up Devante Adams to be their top WR going forward but questions about Jordy Nelson’s longevity and Randal Cobb’s free agency means Aaron Rodgers could need some new targets.  Miller isn’t tall but he’s strong and he’s accomplished and he should be able to step into any offense next season and produce.  He could be the perfect replacement for Cobb and after spending money on Adams they may be looking to save a little with a rookie instead of paying Cobb.  Miller catches everything and Rodgers will love him.  The Packers could look to grab an OT with the season ending injuries to starter Bryan Bulaga and backup Jason Spriggs but there is some depth at OT so they can grab a backup later.

15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Josh Jackson   CB   Iowa

The Cardinals have tried many players opposite Patrick Peterson over the years and none of them have been particularly good.  Currently Tramon Williams is the starter and he’s 34 years old.  Good CBs are hard to come by and Jackson and Denzel Ward are the next tier of players at the position after Fitzpatrick.  Jackson is taller than Ward and he’s a fantastic athlete with superior ball skills.  He and Peterson would make passing against the Cardinals a risky proposition.  The Cardinals could look to the offensive line where they suffered season ending injuries to OTs DJ Humphries and Jared Veldheer and OG Mike Iupati but if those guys get healthy they should be good.  They could look to grab Carson Palmer’s replacement at QB but Jackson looks like too good of a value pick here.  They can look for a guy like Mason Rudolph or Ryan Finley later in the draft if they don’t like their free agent options.  Jackson fills a big need they haven’t been able to fill in quite some time.

16. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): Calvin Ridley   WR   Alabama

It’s a cliché to give Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens an Alabama player at this point given Newsome’s preference for players from his alma mater.  In this case Ridley fills a gigantic need in Baltimore.  Mike Wallace is their best and at this point only consistent threat at WR.  Former 1^st round pick Breshad Perriman simply hasn’t produced due to injuries or simply being a bust.  Free agent addition Jeremy Maclin got hurt and in the season finale that the Ravens lost to knock them out of the playoffs they had 2 healthy WRs on the field.  Ridley wasn’t as dominant as he should have been but Joe Flacco is a better passer than Jalen Hurts so give Ridley a QB and his talent will shine through.

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7): Connor Williams   OT   Texas

The Chargers have two glaring weaknesses; 1. The offensive line, 2. Their run defense.  On defense they have a good pass rush and a very good secondary but they lack great run stuffers up front and they are well below average at middle LB.  On the offensive line Russell Okung was an upgrade at LT but that isn’t saying much.  Last year they drafted two interior offensive linemen; Forrest Lamp who missed the season with an injury and Dan Feeney who took some time to get his footing.  Williams could help solidify the line in front of Phillip Rivers and make Melvin Gordon even more effective.  If Williams hadn’t been hurt all year he very well could have been the top OT in the draft.  He is also likely to be a long-term replacement for Okung.

18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Maurice Hurst   DT   Michigan

This wouldn’t be the ideal scenario for the Seahawks having the top 6 offensive linemen off the board when they come up.  They may need to make a move up considering their major need up front on the offensive line.  Instead, they make the most of the pick by grabbing Hurst who can come in a fill the shoes of Michael Bennett.  Bennett feels like he won’t be back in Seattle and I agree with him.  Hurst can play that hybrid E/T position on the line Bennett currently holds and he’s younger and will be cheaper.  The Seahawks could go CB with Richard Sherman suffering an injury this year and having no depth but Denzel Ward really doesn’t fit their profile.  LT Duane Brown was a nice addition through a trade this year but the Seahawks will really want to consider moving up to get one of the better linemen in this draft before they shorten Russell Wilson’s career.

19. Dallas Cowboys (9-7): Denzel Ward   CB   Ohio St.

The Cowboys spent two draft picks on Jourdan Lewis and Chidobe Awuzie last season but neither one has proven to be a top-notch corner and they still relied heavily on Orlando Scandrick.  Scandrick is 30 years old and has back issues that ended his season so the Cowboys still need a CB1.  Ward is only 5’10 but he plays bigger than that and he has the strength to matchup with bigger WRs.  There is a lot of talk that the Cowboys will look to move on from Dez Bryant and if they do they could go with another Oklahoma St. WR in James Washington or perhaps they like the other Oklahoma St. WR Marcel Ateman better.  Like I said before CB doesn’t have deep top-level talent in this draft so Ward is better value than a WR here.

20. Detroit Lions (9-7): Marcus Davenport   DE   UT-San Antonio

I really want to give the Lions LSU RB Derrius Guice because Ameer Abdullah is terrible and Theo Riddick isn’t a true RB but I think they can grab a good RB later, there will be talent well beyond the first round.  They have to hedge against losing their only good pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah in free agency and even if they keep him he needs help.  Anthony Zettel did okay this year but he isn’t the threat Davenport could be.  Davenport isn’t a household name, that’s what happens when you play at UTSA but scouts know him.  He’s 6’7 255 lbs. and athletic.  His combine and individual workouts could move him higher than 20^th in this draft, even as high as 10-15.  Ansah has been doing the pass rushing mostly alone for the Lions, I’m sure he would appreciate some assistance.  They should grab a real RB in round 2.

The order from here is subject to change as the playoff outcomes dictate order, for now it goes by seed.   

21. Buffalo Bills (9-7): Christian Wilkins   DT   Clemson

There was a time when Wilkins was talked about as a potential #1 overall pick in this draft and while he slips here he’s still really good.  He may not seem like he was as productive as he could have been a lot of that has to do with the ridiculous talent around him on Clemson’s line.  He had to share the wealth.  GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott were in Carolina when they drafted Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short so they know the importance of interior defensive lineman.  The team traded Marcel Dareus because he was more trouble than he was worth and Kyle Williams isn’t getting any younger. They have one undersized DT in Adolphus Washington so Wilkins size would be a welcome addition.  This team needs help on the offensive line too but that will have to come later.  It’s possible they look at QB given Nathan Peterman’s less than stellar debut this season and their obvious antipathy towards Tyrod Taylor.  I could see them looking for a trade candidate like Alex Smith or Blake Bortles or a second-tier free agent like Sam Bradford or they also have another pick just a few picks away.

22. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): Vita Vea   DT   Washington

Vea is a different kind of DT and his size makes him a good fit for Atlanta.  Vea is 6’5 344 lbs. and the Falcons may be looking to replace Dontari Poe who is 6’3 346 lbs. They need a guy with some heft because their other starting DT is Grady Jarrett who is a bit undersized.  Vea is a fantastic athlete for a human being as large as he is and he’s a heck of a football player.  He holds the point of attack very well and he can collapse a pocket when asked to do so.  He would keep the Falcons fast LBs clean and allow them to make the plays they need them to make.  Poe was on a 1-year deal and it’s possible the Falcons will look for a cheaper alternative with Vea.

23. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Ogbonnia Okoronkwo   DE/OLB   Oklahoma

The Titans got into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth and while their offense could best be described as middling I’m not sure they can draft anyone that can fix it, unless they can draft a different coach.  On the other hand, their defense was terrible against the pass and they need to generate more pressure.  OLB Brian Orakpo is on the wrong side of 30 and OLB Derrick Morgan is solid but unspectacular.  Okoronkwo is undersized at 6’1 242 lbs. but he would excel in their 3-4 defense.  He’s a natural pass rusher that could learn from two veterans while providing a pass rushing specialist until he’s needed as a starter in a year or two.

24. Carolina Panthers (11-5): Arden Key   DE   LSU

Julius Peppers, Charles Johnson and Mario Addison are all on the wrong side of 30 (Peppers is really far on the wrong side) and the Panthers defense is built around a strong front 7.  Key hasn’t produced this year as expected but LSU wasn’t exactly great so it’s understandable.  He’s a long, lean athlete that can bend the edge and while he needs to add some weight (he’s around 240 lbs.) Peppers, Johnson and Addison could still be around for another year to give him some time to do so.  The Panthers also need offensive line help but that’s been true for years and they seem to not care.  The other possibility is a WR where they traded Kelvin Benjamin during the year.  They said they did it because he and Devin Funchess were similar big bodied WRs and they wanted to get some speed on the field.  Well James Washington from Oklahoma St. has deep speed and would be a very good complement to Funchess and a better WR option than Russell Shepard.

25. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City 10-6): Josh Allen   QB   Wyoming

The Bills picked up this pick from the Chiefs last year when Kansas City wanted to move up to grab Patrick Mahomes, their future QB.  It’s only fair the Bills grab a QB of the future and the present going forward.  I have no idea what they want to do with Tyrod Taylor but I know they probably shouldn’t count on Nathan Peterman as their starter going forward.  Allen didn’t have the breakout year some were predicting. that could have vaulted him to the top of this draft class, however, there is plenty of talent in the kid that is easy to see.  He’s big, athletic and has a fantastic arm.  He throws the ball well everywhere on the field and he’s simply a playmaker.  If I were the Bills I might try to bring Taylor back for a year or two to give Allen time especially since the Bills offensive line isn’t great.  Let Taylor run around back there for a few years until you fix it, then let Allen take over.

26. New Orleans Saints (11-5): Baker Mayfield   QB   Oklahoma

This one may seem like a little bit of a shocker but Drew Brees is almost as old as Tom Brady and technically he’s a free agent this offseason.  I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell he leaves the Saints but I don’t think the Saints are going to be handing him a 5-year deal either.  New Orleans simply doesn’t have a plan for life after Brees and Mayfield could be the guy.  There have been some that have compared Mayfield to Brees, he’s a little short and highly accurate so there’s that but I see him a little differently.  I think he’s more Russell Wilson than Drew Brees.  Mayfield’s ceiling is being Russell Wilson, that’s a pretty good ceiling, his floor is being Colt McCoy, that’s a pretty low floor.  I’m not a huge fan but he could be really good and considering the Saints have no succession plan in place for when Brees hangs them up, this isn’t a bad idea.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6): Hayden Hurst   TE   South Carolina

The Jaguars defense has been amazing and Blake Bortles hasn’t totally sucked so they can look elsewhere in round 1.  If the team decides to let Marqise Lee walk they could grab a WR but they could really use a TE.  Mercedes Lewis has been there forever but he’s not exactly dominant.  Hurst isn’t a household name and he wasn’t an overly productive TE but he’s athletic, skilled and he’ll be a better pro.  If Bortles is back next year he could really use a reliable TE.  Hurst is an early entry prospect giving up his final year of eligibility but he’s actually 24 because he played pro baseball for a few years before going to South Carolina.  He would give their offense another dimension and his blocking would also help Leonard Fournette.

28. Los Angeles Rams (11-5): Taven Bryan   DL   Florida

The Rams are the single biggest surprise of the season and Sean McVay has their offense humming along.  Wade Phillips did a fantastic job with their defense but their run defense still has some issues.  One of the issues is that Phillips preferred 3-man front needs the right kind of defensive linemen.  While Aaron Donald is a dominant force they still need a more typical 3-4 defensive end opposite him.  Bryan is a 6’5 295 lbs. end/tackle that can do just that.  A more effective player there would make Donald and OLB Robert Quinn even more disruptive.  They could grab a CB like Isaiah Oliver from Colorado but Bryan is good value.

29. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3): Derrius Guice   RB   LSU

I think there is a chance the Steelers don’t hold onto LeVeon Bell in the offseason.  He is going to command a lot of money and franchising him again will not make him a happy camper.  Even if they do, he’s a RB and they have a short shelf-life unless they are Frank Gore.  Guice shouldn’t be available here but in this draft, he is because I can’t find a place for him.  He’s a fantastic prospect and really is just Barkley with less hype.  He has the skillset to replace Bell and be fantastic.  The Steelers could look to find an LB like Tremaine Edmunds given Ryan Shazier’s injury but good teams like the Steelers rarely draft for need if there is a guy as good as Guice still on the board.  Guice is just too valuable here even if Bell does return.

30. Minnesota Vikings (13-3): Will Hernandez   OG   UTEP

The Vikings defense has been outstanding and while they could look to find some youth for their defensive line (Linval Joseph, Brian Robison and Everson Griffen will all be over 30 next year).  However, they could still use some interior help on the offensive line and while Hernandez isn’t a sexy pick he could pay huge dividends especially for Dalvin Cook when he returns at RB.  They could also protect whomever they decide to employ next season at QB.  Hernandez is huge and would be a road grader and a long-term solution inside.  The team spent money on Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers last year at OT and drafted C Pat Elflein.  Those moves all paid off with better line play, Hernandez could be the next piece to the puzzle.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): Isaiah Oliver   CB   Colorado

The Eagles have been one of the best teams all season and while they don’t have a lot of holes they could use some help at CB.  Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby have done a decent job this season but they are replaceable.  They are hoping last year’s flyer on Sidney Jones from Washington is going to pay off.  They took Jones despite his torn Achilles that occurred during his pro day.  If Jones fully recovers he’s a fantastic talent.  Oliver is 6’1 so he’s got some nice length and would make a nice pairing with Jones going forward for the Eagles.  He isn’t as highly ranked as Jackson or Ward but he’s probably the best of the next tier.

32. New England Patriots (13-3): Clelin Ferrell   DE   Clemson

There’s about a 900% chance the Patriots trade this pick because they have the 49ers 2^nd rounder from the Garoppolo trade so they will use this one to gain extra picks.  If they do make the pick it’s either going to be a CB (Jaire Alexander-Louisville, Holton Hill-Texas, Carlton Davis-Auburn, all possible) or a pass rusher.  Trey Flowers and Lawrence Guy were serviceable this year but there is no depth and no pure pass rushing specialist.  Ferrell is a young guy with tons of potential and could be molded into a real threat.  The Patriots could look for a OT but there isn’t great value here.  Tremaine Edmunds would be a nice addition at LB but that makes too much sense.  My dark horse choice here is Bill Belichick completely messing with everyone’s minds and taking QB Lamar Jackson.  For the record, I’m not a Jackson fan unless they are planning on playing him at WR, he just doesn’t seem like an NFL QB to me.  I think he’s Vince Young not Cam Newton.

 

 

NFC East

This division is the enigma as each team has questions that could derail their seasons and strengths that could carry them to the top.  Philadelphia’s season hinges on the development of Carson Wentz and their offense.  The Cowboys got good news when Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension was put on hold with a restraining order but they have a number of suspensions on defense and lots of new faces in the secondary.  The Giants have a good defense and a good receiving corps but they failed to address an offensive line that just isn’t very good.  Washington brought back QB Kirk Cousins on another franchise tag but he lost a number of important weapons and the defense isn’t setting the world on fire.  It’s a coin toss (if you can find a three-sided coin) between Philly, Dallas and New York but I’m going with the upside in Philly.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles clearly found their QB of the future and the present last year in Carson Wentz.  His development is key to the future and so they went out and got him two new WRs in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to go along with holdover Nelson Agholor.  TE Zach Ertz took a little time to develop but he’s a pretty solid weapon for Wentz.  They also grabbed RB LeGarrette Blount to take over as the power back and replace the now departed Ryan Mathews.  Blount won’t have to do it himself as the team has Wendall Smallwood and the ageless Darren Sproles is still around to do his thing.  The offensive line can be a strength but they are counting on 35-year old Jason Peters to hold up at LT and that is a gamble.  If Peters goes down or is ineffective RT Lane Johnson can move over (he eventually will when Peters calls it quits) but the team isn’t prepared to replace Johnson at RT if he has to move now.

The defensive line should be a strength built around DT Fletcher Cox.  While his new interior partner Tim Jernigan wasn’t great in Baltimore, hence the reason he was traded, he is surrounded by top talent and the Eagles are hoping a change of scenery gets him going.  They are deep at DE with starters Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry, veteran backup Chris Long comes over after winning the Super Bowl with New England last year and rookie Derek Barnett should be a solid situational pass rusher.  The LBs; Jordan Hicks, Mychal Kendricks and Nigel Bradham are nothing special but they will hold their own behind a good defensive line.  The secondary took a hit in week 1 when Ronald Darby, who came to Philly in a trade during the preseason (for WR Jordan Matthews) injured his ankle (he’s out 4-6 weeks).  The Philly CBs leave a lot to be desired and Jalen Mills just got a battlefield promotion to #1 CB.  In a division that has Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant this could be a problem.  Rodney McLeod and Malcolm Jenkins do a lot of the heavy lifting in the secondary and make a pretty good safety tandem.  Every team in the division has flaws and I feel better about Philadelphia’s upside and less concerned about their issues than the other teams.

Dallas Cowboys

QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott led the Cowboys offense last year as rookies and they look to build on that foundation.  Elliott’s suspension has been put on hold while he takes the NFL to court.  I could say a lot about how a guy should certainly be suspended for domestic abuse but I could also say a lot about a league administration that can’t seem to hold a fair hearing for anyone and undermines its own process.  Roger Goodell is an incompetent fool when it comes to his discipline process.  For now, Elliott plays whether you like it or not and that’s good news for the team.  Prescott has weapons in Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, Cole Beasley and the future Hall of Famer Jason Witten.  He knows how to use them and Elliott and that makes this team dangerous.  The Cowboys have had the best offensive line in the league for several years but there are a few changes.  RT Doug Free retired and OG La’el Collins will move to RT to replace him, Collins may be an upgrade over the aging Free but it hurts them inside.  They also lost some depth when OG Ronald Leary signed in Denver so it’s now Chaz Green and Jonathan Cooper fighting for the LG spot.  The good news is LT Tyron Smith, RG Zack Martin and C Travis Frederick are arguably the best players at their respective positions in the entire league.

The Cowboys defense has as many suspended DEs (Randy Gregory, David Irving and Damontre Moore) as it has healthy ones.  Demarcus Lawrence got off to a hot start and they like rookie Taco Charlton but their depth will be tested (BTW, Gregory is unlikely to play again, ever, he’s a train wreck).  Stephen Paea and Maliek Collins are solid if unspectacular at DT.  The linebacking corps is dealing with an injury to Anthony Hitchens and the return to playing of Jaylon Smith after missing last year with a horrific knee injury.  Sean Lee is his solid self but his age and his injury history are going to slow him down sooner rather than later.  The secondary is where the real issues could arise.  The team lost CB Morris Claiborne, CB Brandon Carr, S JJ Wilcox and S Barry Church and their replacements are suspect.  Orlando Scandrick, Anthony Brown and Nolan Carrol are the top three CBs and that’s not reassuring.  Byron Jones returns at safety but he’s now paired with Jeff Heath, things could get ugly.  If you pair an unreliable pass rush with an unreliable secondary, things can go downhill fast.  This team overcame issues on defense last year as they played better than people thought but now they have taken more hits on that side and it will have an effect.  I don’t believe Dak and Zeke can overcome it all and this team will take a slight step back.  They can still be a playoff team but they will have a fight on their hands.

New York Giants

QB Eli Manning, WRs Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram, that’s the good news on offense.  LT Ereck Flowers, LG Justin Pugh, C Weston Richburg, RG John Jerry and RT Bobby Hart, that’s the bad news on offense.  Manning has plenty of weapons to throw to (once Beckham comes back from his injured ankle) but will he have the time to get them the ball.  They return last year’s offensive line and that’s not a good thing.  Flowers shouldn’t be a LT, he might be fine on the right side but he gets beat like a snare drum at LT.  Bobby Hart should be a backup OT or play inside at OG.  C Weston Richburg is fine but he’s only one man.  RB Paul Perkins would be a decent player behind the Cowboys or Raiders offensive lines but behind this group he’s well below average.  He simply isn’t a guy that can create yards for himself.  This is unfortunate for the team because they may be wasting the last few good years of Eli behind a terrible offensive line that may usher in the end of his career sooner rather than later.

It’s also a travesty that the offensive line could undermine the entire offense and in turn waste a phenomenal defense.  Last year the Giants spent money in free agency to fix a shaky defense, they signed DT Damon Harrison, DE Olivier Vernon and CB Janoris Jenkins and they re-signed Jason Pierre-Paul and all of those signings worked out well.  It also helped that S Landon Collins made the leap from good early round draft pick to elite Defensive Player of the Year candidate and became the superstar they knew he could be.  The team still lacks elite playmakers at LB but when you have a dominating defensive line and a deep and talented secondary they can make up for a lot.  The defense is going to keep them in just about every game no matter what but they still need points and Eli Manning is going to find those hard to come by while in a heap behind his offensive line with a defender laying on top of him.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins and the Giants should combine their offenses, take the Giants WRs and Eli Manning and combine them with TE Jordan Reed and the Redskins offensive line, neither teams’ RBs are worth mentioning but the passing game would be scary.  The Redskins should be better considering how many players they have in the prime of their careers but not as many of those guys are on offense.  LT Trent Williams is an elite player but he’s 29 and he won’t be around forever.  The right side of the line, RG Brandon Scherff and RT Morgan Moses, along with C Spencer Long should grow together as a very good unit as they are all still early in their careers.  QB Kirk Cousins is a solid starter but the team has undermined his ability for success by letting WRs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon go and only bringing in Terrell Pryor as a replacement.  WR Jamison Crowder was good last year but that’s because Jackson and Garcon took all the attention to the outside and Crowder was left alone to do his damage, that won’t be the case this year.  TE Jordan Reed is fantastic when he’s healthy but he too will see more coverage without the two outside WRs.  RBs Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson look like a great thunder and lightning combination on paper but it doesn’t seem to translate as well on the field.  They were hoping rookie Samaje Perine would make some noise but so far, he’s been pretty quiet.

The Redskins have a number of good players on their defense but they lack elite talent.  Out of all of their starters CB Josh Norman is probably the only guy that rates in the top 10 of his position group in the league and he wasn’t always great last year.  OLB Ryan Kerrigan is good but he’s pushing 30 and his effectiveness could slip any time.  DT Ziggy Hood, DE Stacy McGee, LB Mason Foster, LB Zach Brown, CB Bashaud Breeland and FS DJ Swearinger are all solid players but they don’t dominate the game.  Rookie DE Jonathan Allen can be a dominant player but he’s going to need some help from somewhere.  OLB Preston Smith needs to get back to where he was two years ago and build on that as a pass rusher.  The other guy that could really help is Allen’s Alabama teammate OLB Ryan Anderson, he has pass rushing skills that could come in handy.  I think Cousins looks like a decent QB this year because he doesn’t have the talent around him to elevate his play and he’s not really the type of QB that makes the guys around him better.  The Redskins are going to struggle in a competitive division because they don’t have the elite talent the other three teams have.

 

 

 

NFC North

This off season Matthew Stafford became the highest paid player in the NFL with his new contract extension but this division still belongs to Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers will go as far as Rodgers takes them because while they have a top 10 offense they need some improvement on defense.  The Vikings look like their defense will be formidable and it’s their offense that needs to show some consistency.  An improved offensive line along with more time with Sam Bradford and an improved run game will go a long way towards making the Vikings better.  Detroit was a playoff team last season but they face an uphill battle this year with other teams improving in the conference.  They were hoping to have an improved offensive line but losing LT Taylor Decker makes that unlikely.  The Bears can’t quite decide if they are looking to compete (signing free agent QB Mike Glennon) or rebuilding (trading up for QB Mitchell Trubisky).  They are in no man’s land with middling veterans surrounding not enough young talent.  I’m expecting a hard reboot by next year with a new coach, for their sake hopefully one that likes Trubisky.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are a team that is greater than the sum of their individual parts.  Essentially Aaron Rodgers makes their offense better than it should be.  They have a converted WR playing RB in Ty Montgomery and while he’s not a traditional back they find ways to make it work.  WR Jordy Nelson is great but they need to keep him healthy like last year.  The offensive line has had loss after loss over the last few years on the interior but they just keep plugging guys in and getting it done.  It would be good if their starting five (I’m looking at you Bryan Bulaga) would stay healthy because it’s not the deepest group on the team.  New TE Martellus Bennett is probably just as big of an enigma as Jared Cook was last year.  He’s talented but not always consistent.

At times, the defense still feels like Clay Matthews and ten other guys but some of those guys are stepping up.  OLB Nick Perry took some time to develop but he played well last year.  DE Mike Daniels is an unsung hero keeping the linebackers clean and collapsing the pocket more often than he gets credit for.  They are hoping 3^rd year CBs Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins step up this year or they will really have to count on rookie Kevin King and veteran Davon House.  They are the best overall team in the division and they have the X-factor in Aaron Rodgers so they should take the division.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings started out well last year especially considering they got Sam Bradford just before the season started to replace the injured Teddy Bridgewater.  Their offensive undoing was largely a product of injuries and ineffective play on the offensive line and having no real playmakers outside of Stefon Diggs.  The Adrian Peterson era is officially over and rookie RB Dalvin Cook looks like the real deal.  The offensive line was addressed with the signings of LT Riley Reiff and RT Mike Remmers along with the drafting of C Pat Elflein.  LG Nick Easton gives the Vikings four new starters leaving only part-time veteran Joe Berger as the only returner on the line, that’s really good news for Bradford and Cook.  TE Kyle Rudolph and WR Adam Thielen are solid starters that bring consistency.  The team could really use a breakout season from 2^nd year WR Laquan Treadwell to add another dimension to the passing game.

The defense found a nice pass rusher to pair with Everson Griffin in Danielle Hunter last season and now he’ll be the full-time starter.  DT Linval Joseph anchors the middle of the defense and makes life easier on Griffin and Hunter and on the linebackers.  Speaking of LBs former UCLA teammates Eric Kendricks (MLB) and Anthony Barr (OLB) are a fantastic pair.  The team may miss the leadership of Chad Greenway but Kendricks and Barr are real talents.  The secondary has two good young corners in Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes and they are hoping Mackensie Alexander can hold down the nickel spot but if anyone should falter they have the ageless wonder Terrence Newman back again (hey, he’s 39, that’s ancient in NFL years).  FS Harrison Smith is one of the least talked about top defenders in the league.  Smith covers up many mistakes made in front of him and every offense the Vikings face know where Smith is at all times.  A better offensive line and some consistency on that side of the ball could lead the Vikings to a playoff spot this season.

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford had an unexpectedly productive year last year without the retired Calvin Johnson around.  He spread the ball around and got production from Golden Tate and Marvin Jones at WR and passing game was less predictable.  LT Taylor Decker solidified the line last season and the Lions were hoping free agents RT Rick Wagner and OG TJ Lang would continue to improve that group but Decker went down with an injury and that undermines any potential improvement.  They are expected to start former Rams bust Greg Robinson at LT and that could spell trouble for Stafford.  The running game is still a committee made up of Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner which means consistency is still lacking.  TE Eric Ebron finally became a productive member of the offense which gives Stafford a security blanket.

Detroit’s defense hasn’t been a top unit for a very long time and that isn’t going to change this year.  They still rely heavily, if not almost exclusively, on Ezekiel Ansah to bring pressure on the QB.  DT A’Shawn Robinson was good last year inside and Haloti Ngata is still solid even if he is aging and not as dominant as he once was.  They are looking to rookie MLB Jarrad Davis to really step up as their LB corps leaves a lot to be desired, as it has for years.  CB Darius Slay is a tough match up for anyone but the rest of the CB group needs to step up to take the pressure off.  The defense is good enough to compete when Stafford and the offense are highly productive but they don’t win games for this team.  A slight regression from the offense and defense will suffer the consequences.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have to decide if they are looking to compete with Mike Glennon or looking to rebuild around Mitchell Trubisky, being in between those two places means you end up 6-10.  Missing the playoffs and not drafting in the top 10 is a bad place to be especially when you’re not that great at drafting.  The team signed guys like WRs Kendall Wright and Markus Wheaton and CBs Marcus Cooper and Prince Amukamara and none of those guys move the needle on offense or defense.  Then in the preseason they lost their best WR in Cameron Meredith which means a lot of pressure falls on 3^rd year WR Kevin White, he’s basically missed his first two seasons.  The best player on offense is 2^nd year RB Jordan Howard and it looks like he’ll get a hand in the backfield from rookie Tarik Cohen, this offense can use all the help it can get.  The interior of their offensive line; LG Kyle Long, C Cody Whitehair and RG Josh Sitton, is good.  They like Charles Leno, Jr. enough to give him a contract extension at LT and while he’s no world beater he’s better than what they have had there for a while.  RT Bobby Massie is still a replacement level player and they should really look for an upgrade.

The Bears defense is pretty ho-hum.  Playmakers are few and far between and the only guy that really looks like he could become one is OLB Leonard Floyd.  They just gave a contract extension to DL Akiem Hicks mostly because he was good last year in John Fox’s defense and they need some consistency up front but Hicks has bounced around in his career for a reason.  Cooper and Amukamara might be upgrades from the CBs they were running out on defense last season but they don’t scare Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford or Sam Bradford.  Their best defensive back might be FS Eddie Jackson and he’s a rookie that missed last season at Alabama with an injury.  Not sure where this team is going and I’m not sure they know either.

 

 

 

AFC West

The Raiders were one Derek Carr injury away from rolling into the playoffs and being one of the best teams in AFC side of the bracket.  Carr is healthy and while the defense is still missing a few key pieces the team has a great defensive player leading the way, Khalil Mack.  Kansas City’s offense looked fantastic opening night against the Patriots but I’m not going to overreact either way, the Pats defense looked horrible without Donta Hightower.  The Chargers might waste some of the best offensive skill position talent in the NFL behind a suspect offensive line.  They have had injury issue after injury issue over the past several years and the one they can’t overcome is if Philip Rivers goes down.  There’s a reason why Trevor Siemian was a seventh-round draft pick, he’s limited in what he can really do.  He’ll hold down the fort but he isn’t scaring any of the good teams in the AFC.  It isn’t a good sign that Paxton Lynch couldn’t beat him out before he went down with an injury.  Brock Osweiler to the rescue, okay maybe not.

Oakland Raiders

This was the one team that scared me last year as a Patriots fan, right up until the moment Derek Carr went down for the year.  If Carr recaptures his form (and I’m betting he does) this team is going to be very tough.  The Raiders added RB Marshawn Lynch and while I don’t think he’ll be the Beast Mode he used to be he will be better and more consistent than their running game was last season.  Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree give Carr a talented set of WRs to throw to and while TE Jared Cook has always been more of a tease he’s a serious upgrade over their other TEs.  The offensive line was very effective last season and while there may be a bit of a shuffle they should be just fine.

The defense is where the question marks are for the Raiders.  DE Khalil Mack is not one of the questions.  He’s the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and he’ll be looking to add to his trophy collection.  He’s the leader of the defense the same way Carr is the leader of the offense.  The Raiders are going to need some help from some unknown LBs.  Rookie Marquel Lee looks like the leader at MLB while Cory James is slated to start on the weakside.  Another rookie, Eddie Vanderdoes, looks to start at DT and that’s good news because they can really use his size and power up the middle.  The secondary returns intact (CB David Amerson may miss some time) and they add rookie CB Gareon Conley.  The defense will likely be allowed to be very aggressive as the offense will be highly effective.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are built in the image of their coach and QB, Andy Reid and Alex Smith, they aren’t flashy they just get the job done.  The team benefitted from a solid season by their offensive line as LT Eric Fisher matured into the player they thought he could be when he was drafted #1 overall and the addition of RT Mitchell Schwartz solidified the edge.  The unit blocked well for whatever RB they wanted to play and they will need that this year as Spencer Ware is out for the year and will be replaced by rookie Kareem Hunt.  Hunt is a talented player and I really like him.  Tyreek Hill was the major playmaker last year for the Chiefs with 12 TDs and he figures to be a favorite target.  They need someone like Chris Conley to step up as the other WR since they let Jeremy Maclin go in the off season.  TE Travis Kelce was an All-Pro last season and he earned it, he’s Smith’s best security blanket and an absolute matchup nightmare.

Kansas City runs a 3-4 defense and they have the typical workman like defensive linemen for the scheme; Allen Bailey, Chris Jones and Bennie Logan.  They have the grizzled veteran ILB Derrick Johnson who just keeps coming back and tackling people.  He’s joined by Ramik Wilson and they are flanked by the stars of the 3-4 OLBs Justin Houston and Dee Ford.  Ford is replacing the venerable Tamba Hali who is starting the season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list.  The secondary is led by two All-Pro players in SS Eric Berry and CB Marcus Peters.  FS Ron Parker is solid but with CB Steven Nelson placed on injured reserve it will be up to either Terrence Mitchell or Phillip Gaines to step up because no QB in their right mind throws it anywhere near Marcus Peters.  The Chiefs will likely be a wildcard team in the AFC.

Los Angeles Chargers

There’s a new head coach in Anthony Lynn but he was smart enough to retain offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt who has a good relationship with QB Phillip Rivers.  The Chargers have plenty of talent at the skill positions especially if they can keep their WRs healthy.  RB Melvin Gordon and TE Hunter Henry are young guys that are really coming into their own and are valuable weapons for Rivers.  If WR Keenan Allen can stay healthy he’s a legitimate #1 WR and they are hoping rookie WR Mike Williams can overcome some back issues and contribute, he has #1 WR potential.  Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are good #2 and #3 WRs to have complementing those guys.  The Chargers problem on offensive is the same one they have had for a few years now and that’s the offensive line.  They have battled many injuries over the past few years and they already have one that really hurts.  Rookie Forrest Lamp would have been a starter but he’s out for the year already.  I’m not sure new LT Russell Okung is the answer but he’s better than what they have been starting at LT lately.  They are still struggling to find a legitimate starting center and their veteran group of linemen; RT Joe Barksdale, LG Matt Slauson and RG Kenny Wiggins leave a lot to be desired.  A mediocre offensive line is not what you want when your QB is as stationary as Phillip Rivers.  Rivers is a fantastic passer but he’s about as mobile as the Statue of Liberty.

The defense has a new coordinator in Gus Bradley and while he was a bit of a disaster as a head coach in Jacksonville he’s a very good defensive mind.  DE Joey Bosa was a star as a rookie last year even after getting a late start and he forms a good front to their 3-4 defense with DT Brandon Mebane and DE Corey Luiget.  OLB Melvin Ingram is the star of the LB corps and he and Bosa bring the pressure on the opposing QBs.  The rest of the LBs are non-descript but they just need to hold their own.  CBs Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett form a talented duo and rookie Desmond King looks to take over as the nickel corner.  If the defense can get pressure they could really force some turnovers.

Denver Broncos

Count me as someone with serious doubts about the Denver Broncos this season.  They have a new head coach in Vance Joseph, a new offensive coordinator in the Mike McCoy and a new defensive coordinator in Joe Woods.  Trevor Siemian may have won the QB competition against Paxton Lynch but that doesn’t give me great confidence in them.  Siemian is a placeholder and the more teams see him the more they will figure him out.  He was supposed to be holding the spot for Lynch, the former first-round pick, but Lynch can’t seem to take the job away (that’s not a great sign).  RB CJ Anderson has had a great year in his career but he also has had a bad year before.  His success will be predicated on the improvement of the offensive line.  The line play for the Broncos was bad last year and they went out and signed two new starters and drafted one in the first round.  Rookie LT Garrett Bolles (the first-rounder) had an uneven preseason and they need him to solidify the LT spot that has been a problem since Ryan Clady’s time in Denver came to an end a few years ago.  RT Menelik Watson was a part-time starter in Oakland and OG Ronald Leary comes in from Dallas and while they may be upgrades from last season they are inconsistent players too.

The defense is supposed to be the strength of the Broncos team and they have plenty of talent but they are missing a few key pieces this year.  Don’t underestimate the loss of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, he has never been a good head coach but he’s one of the best defensive coordinators in NFL history.  The lost DeMarcus Ware to retirement and his replacement is supposed to be Shane Ray but he’s injured.  That puts a lot of pressure on Von Miller as the only accomplished pass rusher on the team.  Ray was placed on injured reserve with the intention of him coming back halfway through the year but the Broncos could be buried by then.  The secondary is still stacked with CBs Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby and safety Darian Stewart but the late release of SS TJ Ward could hurt them out of the gate.  I really liked Justin Simmons coming out of college but it’s a tall order replacing Ward’s play and leadership.  I think the Broncos struggle early this year and hopefully for them Paxton Lynch gets back soon enough that they can give him a shot at starting to see if he’s their long-term solution at QB.

 

AFC East Preview

This division has been dominated by the Patriots for a long time and that isn’t going to change this year.  The Patriots are still the odds-on favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  The Dolphins may finish second in the division by default because the Bills are in a major transition from the Rex Ryan/Doug Whaley era to the new Sean McDermott/Brandon Beane era and the Jets are a bad episode of The Walking Dead right now.  Let’s take a closer look.

New England Patriots

As long as it’s Bill Belichick and Tom Brady leading the way this team remains the favorite in the AFC East.  Even with the season ending injury to Julian Edelman Brady will make the offense work, he always does.  They are better equipped to handle the loss of Edelman with Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell at WR than they are to handle the free agent defection of LeGarrette Blount.  The additions of Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee are solid but neither one is the power back Blount was.  Gillislee will hopefully handle the between the tackle pounding but he’s never been a workhorse back before.  The offensive line was very good last year and if they can remain healthy that should be the case again.

The defense will be good even if no one knows the names of the guys the Patriots are running out there at DE.  The defensive front is made up of a number of castoffs and no-names (with the exception of Malcolm Brown) but they will be fine.  The addition of former Jets LB David Harris will be a steadying force next to Donta Hightower and free agent CB Stephon Gilmore really solidifies the secondary.  Gilmore and Malcolm Butler are one of the better CB tandems in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins

Even with Jay Cutler taking the reins of the offense the Dolphins are still the second-best team in the AFC East.  Cutler was a disaster overall in Chicago, especially at the end, but his best year was with Adam Gase as his offensive coordinator.  The Dolphins offer Cutler a much better opportunity for success than he had most of the time in Chicago because they have plenty of talent to surround him with.  RB Jay Ajayi, WRs Devante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and TE Julius Thomas give him plenty of weapons and the offensive line made strides last season.

The defense is counting on rookie DE Charles Harris and trade acquisition Williams Hayes to help bring some pressure so that Cameron Wake isn’t the only guy chasing down QBs.  The LB corps has been hit by a couple of season ending injuries to Koa Misi and rookie Raekwon McMillan so they will be counting on veterans Lawrence Timmons and Rey Maualuga to squeeze one more year out of their aging games.  The secondary returns intact and they will wait to see if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.

Buffalo Bills

The new Coach/GM tandem of Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have made the decision to move on from many of the personnel decisions of the Ryan/Whaley regime and they are not wasting time.  WR Sammy Watkins, CB Ronald Darby and LB Reggie Ragland are just a few of the bigger names they have already traded and they are collecting draft picks in 2018 like baseball cards.  The Bills will have two picks in each of the first three rounds of the 2018 draft, if Beane is better at making those picks than Whaley was the Bills could turn around their fortunes pretty quickly.  They are sticking with QB Tyrod Taylor for this year but I wouldn’t be surprised if they use some of that draft capital next year to get themselves a new franchise QB.  They will rely heavily on RB LeSean McCoy this season as their passing game will be a work in progress with new WR Jordan Matthews just arriving in a trade and rookie Zay Jones being the next guy.

The Bills defense is in a state of flux as Sean McDermott comes from being the Panthers defensive coordinator and is looking to change things up.  He is also looking to instill some discipline that was lacking in the Ryan era and that is causing friction with DT Marcel Dareus who is in McDermott’s doghouse at the moment.  They are hoping to get something out of former 1^st round pick DE Shaq Lawson or that may be another draft pick they move on from.  The LB corps is less than spectacular and with the change from a 3-4 system to a 4-3 system the schematic fit of the players on the roster is a bit of a mess.  The secondary is changing over as trade acquisition EJ Gaines and rookie Tre’Davious White look to take over a CB and free agent addition Micah Hyde steps in at safety.  The Bills were going nowhere fast under Ryan/Whaley, at least now they have a new direction.

New York Jets

The “Suck for Sam” campaign is off and running.  That’s the Jets race to the worst record in the NFL so they can draft Sam Darnold from USC next year to be their QB of the future.  It could be for Josh Rosen or Josh Allen or Mason Rudolph or anyone else with half a pulse at QB, they won’t be picky.  The trio of Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty look like they are going to set offensive football back about four decades.  The Jets offense is led by 31-year old RB Matt Forte or Bilal Powell who has never been a workhorse back.  Their top WRs are Robby Anderson and the newly acquired Jermaine Kearse, don’t worry nobody knows who those guys are.  The offensive line is made up of five guys that probably shouldn’t be starting for anyone in the NFL.  This offense could be brutal this season.

The defense has some solid building blocks as a foundation for the future with defensive lineman Leonard Williams, LB Darron Lee and safety Jamal Adams.  Unfortunately for them that’s only three of the 11 guys they have to play on defense.  DE Muhammad Wilkerson, LB Demario Davis, CBs Morris Claiborne and Buster Skrine should all be in the prime of their careers but they will be wasting it on a team going nowhere.  Young LBs Jordan Jenkins and Lorenzo Mauldin may have futures with this team and they are hopeful rookie safety Marcus Maye is a find.  The defense could be okay this year but they are going to be on the field far too often to be effective.