2017 NFL Mock Draft

The NFL Combine has finally finished so now we have more information on players than we had before.  Official heights and weights, 40-yard dash times, vertical and broad jump distances and even the three-cone drill times, don’t worry I’m not getting into the three-cone numbers.  Some teams place far too much value on Combine numbers (it’s known to some as the Underwear Olympics) and some teams ignore the things they just don’t want to see.  Some players really helped themselves; DE Myles Garrett (athletic freak), QB Deshaun Watson (threw better than anyone expected) and WR John Ross (broke the 40-yard record with a 4.22).  Some players hurt their stock; LB Reuben Foster (was sent home due to an altercation with medical staff, we will need to learn more about this), QB DeShone Kizer (looked really erratic throwing the football all over the place) and CB Teez Tabor pulled a Joe Haden and looked like he was running in sand.  Some guys didn’t fully participate due to injury; WRs Mike Williams and Corey Davis most notably.  In the end, not too many grades will be changed but someone will fall in love with someone freakishly athletic and draft them for that reason alone, it happens every year.  I will echo the sentiments of everyone by saying that the TE group as a whole looked really impressive.  They sort of looked like an entire race of freakishly athletic dudes ready to dominate the world.  It’s a truly impressive and slightly scary sight to watch multiple guys that are around 6’4 260 lbs. broad jump 11 feet, that’s not normal.   Also, it seemed like there are about 50 good defensive backs in this draft so take your pick, heck take two if you like.

Free agency started and decided to blow up my entire mock draft so this version has been a bit of a moving target.  The QB shuffle got very interesting.  Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley went to San Francisco, Mike Glennon headed to Chicago, Tyrod Tyler stayed put in Buffalo, the Browns traded for Brock Osweiler except they don’t really want him.  The Texans traded away Osweiler but haven’t made a trade for Tony Romo, it’s Tom Savage’s team for now.  Kirk Cousins signed his franchise tender so the Redskins will pay him about $26 million even though they don’t want him and he doesn’t want to be there.  No one wants Jay Cutler and no one wants to quarterback the Jets so that may become a marriage of convenience.  Everyone thinks they can find the next Dak Prescott so the QBs in this draft may want to brace for a fall.

Round 1

1. Cleveland Browns (1-15): Myles Garrett DE   Texas A&M

In the weirdest trade ever the Browns picked up a 2^nd round pick and swapped some other picks with the Texans and took on QB Brock Osweiler and his $16 millionAQ contract.  The Texans just did an NBA style salary dump so they can go after Tony Romo.  However, Osweiler is so bad that the Browns are trying to flip him for another pick.  If they can’t flip Osweiler they may just eat the salary and cut him anyway. This is seriously weird.  Regardless of what happens for the Browns at QB they simply can’t take one here.  Garrett was about a 90% certainty before the Combine and then he worked out and now I would say he’s about a 99.99% certainty.  You simply can’t pass up a player with his potential for any QB that isn’t a sure thing and there are no QBs in this draft that are a sure thing.  Garrett can change the entire dynamic of the Browns defense.  He would draw double teams on the outside that would aid guys like DEs Emmanuel Ogbah and Carl Nassib and his pass rushing would help take pressure off of a secondary that needs help.  Garrett is the best combination of sure thing and ridiculously high ceiling as you’re going to get in this draft and the Browns need that badly.

2. San Francisco 49ers (2-14): Jonathan Allen DL   Alabama

When the 49ers signed Brian Hoyer I still thought they would take a QB here and just use Hoyer as a bridge to a guy like Mitchell Trubisky because he needs some time to develop.  Then they signed Matt Barkley too and I can’t see them signing a starter and a solid back-up and then drafting a guy at #2 overall to be their third QB.  I’m fairly certain Kyle Shanahan is simply not impressed by the guys at the top of this draft so he’s going to pass.  The next best player after Garrett is Jonathan Allen and he’s a stud.  They have used 1^st round picks on Arik Armstead and DeForest Bruckner the past two years but Allen is special.  Putting all three of those guys up front on their defense would give them a very solid foundation to build a new defense around.  Allen can play all over the front and his versatility gives them a lot of options of where to line guys up and what defensive formation they want to use.

3. Chicago Bears (3-13): Jamal Adams SS   LSU

Jay Cutler is gone and Mike Glennon is the new QB, GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox were never going to hitch their wagon to a rookie QB.  They would love it if Jonathan Allen were to fall here as he would be a fantastic addition to their improving front seven but if he’s off the board they can address their secondary.  I’m pretty sure the last time the Bears had a great safety on their team Mike Ditka was still coaching them so it’s time to remedy that situation.  Adams is a defense defining safety in the mold of Troy Polamalu and he will change the entire dynamic of the secondary.  The Bears need a CB too and they could grab a guy like Marshon Lattimore to pair with free agent signee Prince Amukamara but Adams is the higher rated prospect.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13): Solomon Thomas DE   Stanford

The Jaguars are spending like drunken sailors picking up DL Calais Campbell and CB AJ Bouye in free agency but I think Thomas will be too good to pass up.  The Jags still need a RB but DE is a more valuable position and while there is plethora of good DEs in this draft there are also plenty of good RBs.  Thomas isn’t in Garrett’s league but he isn’t that far off and he’s only a redshirt sophomore so he’s still got some maturing to do.  The Jaguars still need a little help with their pass rush since Dante Fowler Jr. didn’t fix it for them by himself last season.  Thomas would also give them a better all-around DE than last year’s rookie Yannick Ngakoue who then could become more a pass rushing specialist which would benefit everyone.  Thomas looks the part and he worked out well at the Combine, his addition to the Jaguars improving defense might just be the piece that really puts them over the hump.  I really want to give the Jags a LT seeing how they desperately need one but there isn’t one worth the 4^th pick in the draft and they may be getting a veteran to hold down the fort for a year or two (here comes Brandon Albert’s corpse).

5. Tennessee Titans (from LA Rams 4-12): Marshon Lattimore CB   Ohio St.

The Titans have signed SS Jonathan Cyprien and CB Logan Ryan but that doesn’t mean they will ignore their secondary with this pick.  They need a lot of help in the secondary and Lattimore showed his freakish athleticism at the Combine.  He was only a one year starter for the Buckeyes but that just means he has room to get better and that’s a scary thought.  He’s ready to compete right now and in a few years, he has the potential to be one of the best CBs in the NFL.  His size, speed and explosiveness would be a welcome addition to the Titans secondary.

6. New York Jets (5-11): Deshaun Watson QB   Clemson

The coach and GM of the Jets might be making this pick for the next guys in their respective chairs but that’s what happens when a team drafts Geno Smith, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg at QB.  When you go 0-3 at the position you end up looking like the Jets.  It’s quite possible they settle for Jay Cutler as a bridge to the future (that’s a terrible idea by the way).  Watson is an experienced QB and a winning one at that.  He had a very good day at the Combine throwing the ball and perhaps his dynamic playmaking can save Todd Bowles job long enough to turn this thing around (although I doubt it).  The Jets seem to be going scorched earth with the rebuild so taking a shot on Watson is completely understandable.  Something tells me they didn’t cut WR Brandon Marshall just so it would be less awkward when they sign Jay Cutler.  Let the Geno Smi…err… I mean the Deshaun Watson era begin!

7. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11): Malik Hooker FS   Ohio St.

I feel like I should call them the Los Angeles Chargers of Carson or something, it’s already awkward enough why not go all the way with it?  They were desperate enough to sign Russell Okung to be their new LT so if I were them I might consider grabbing Cam Robinson, Garrett Boles or Ryan Ramczyk.  None of them warrant being picked this high but any of them might be an upgrade at this point.  I think they go for value and take Hooker who would slide very well into their young and aggressive secondary.  They did well with their 1^st round Buckeye last year in Joey Bosa, Hooker would give them a playmaker in the deep middle which they have been missing.

8. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Leonard Fournette RB   LSU

This would be another team that could reach for an OT despite the fact that they are signing Matt Kalil, he’s an upgrade but they could still use some help.  RB Jonathan Stewart has never been the picture of health and his absences become bigger by the day.  He’s now a 30-year old RB so it unlikely he’s all of the sudden going to become more durable.  Fournette is an impressive athlete (his less than stellar vertical jump at the Combine not withstanding) and he’s a workhorse back.  If anyone can get the tough yards behind a suspect offensive line it’s Fournette.  The Adrian Peterson comparisons are unfair but understandable.  Fournette weighed 240 lbs. at the Combine and still ran 4.51 in the 40.  He’s big, powerful and fast and he could give Cam Newton and the Panthers offense what they had on those rare occasions Stewart was healthy.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1): Derek Barnett DE   Tennessee

I had Reuben Foster going here and that is still a possibility if the story of him getting into an argument with a medical staffer at the Combine turns out to be something different but for now I see him falling a bit.  Let’s just say getting into an altercation during the biggest job interview of your life is going to warrant special attention.  Barnett didn’t fully workout at the Combine because he came down with the flu but he went out and did some things like running his 40 and other drills and that says a lot about his makeup.  The Bengals need a pass rusher and while Barnett isn’t the speedy edge rusher like Garrett or even Solomon Thomas he gets it done with a non-stop motor.  The Bengals could use a guy that never quits and plays through pain (or works out through illness as the case may be).

10. Buffalo Bills (7-9): Mike Williams WR   Clemson

So, they worked out a deal to keep QB Tyrod Taylor but it looks like Sammy Watkins might be the only WR left on the roster so it’s time to get some help. Williams would make a nice complement to Watkins.  Or perhaps Watkins would make a nice complement to Williams.  Mike Williams has elite WR talent and he could become Taylor’s preferred #1 WR in short order.  Watkins has a tendency to get beat up and while Williams missed a year at Clemson with a scary neck injury he’s otherwise healthy.  A big, powerful wideout can be a QB’s best friend especially in the red zone and that’s exactly where Williams can excel.

11. New Orleans Saints (7-9): John Ross WR   Washington

The Saints just sent Brandin Cooks to the Patriots for a couple of draft picks, yeah, I don’t know why either.  Their rookie WR from last season, Michael Thomas, was fantastic and they have another good big receiver in Brandon Coleman but they could still use a good speed receiver to replace Cooks.  Ross is as speedy as they come, literally.  The new 40-yard dash record holder from the Combine would look pretty good catching deep balls from Drew Brees.  The Saints need a pass rusher but Tim Williams might be a bit of a gamble here with his background.  His admission at the Combine that he failed multiple drug tests while at Alabama is admirable but it will hurt him a little with teams drafting this high.  The Saints are always looking for a CB, it’s a constant issue, but now that they have the Patriots pick at #32 they can take advantage of the depth in this draft and wait to grab a CB later.

12. Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia 7-9): Marlon Humphrey CB   Alabama

I had Washington CB Sidney Jones here but he tore his Achilles tendon during the defensive back drills at Washington’s Pro Day.  It’s a terrible injury that likely means a major fall in the draft for arguably the best CB in the draft.  He will likely miss all of next season while rehabbing his injury.  Jones was fighting Lattimore for the top spot on the CB list without him it’s Humphrey that moves up.  He’s a big CB that showed far better speed at the Combine than anyone anticipated so he’s worthy of the spot.  The Browns need to get Joe Haden some help at CB, they could go for a safety here too but I think Humphrey is the better value.

13. Arizona Cardinals (7-8-1): Mitchell Trubisky QB   North Carolina

This might be the perfect landing spot for Trubisky because there will be no pressure to perform this season.  The Cardinals have Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald returning for what most assume will be their final year.  This is a chance for the team to finally find a replacement for Palmer and he needs at least the year to learn from him.  Trubisky has all the physical tools you look for in a QB and if something happens to Palmer he could play in a pinch.  They do still have veteran backup Drew Stanton too so they can choose to not play Trubisky at all and he can learn from two long-time veterans.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota 8-8): Gareon Conley CB   Ohio St.

When you end the season with Dwayne Gratz and Jalen Mills at CB you obviously have a need.  The Eagles filled their other big need at WR with free agent additions Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith so CB is priority #1.  Conley went into the season as the Ohio St. CB everyone was talking about and then Lattimore burst onto the scene.  That doesn’t make Conley any less of a prospect and he went to the Combine and showed up in a big way.  He has good size, showed good speed and looked good in the drills.  With the Jones injury and Teez Tabor having a poor showing at the Combine Conley is making a move up the board.  The Eagles could look to address their offensive line but Conley is better value.

15. Indianapolis Colts (8-8): Reuben Foster ILB   Alabama

Unless Foster offed someone at the Combine and no one told us he may fall out of the top 10 but his drop won’t be that significant.  The Colts desperately need playmakers on defense and Foster is the type of LB that can change the temperament of your entire defense.  I haven’t found the whole story on what went down at the Combine but there are two sides to every story and someone is going to buy Foster’s side at some point because he’s simply too good of a prospect to pass up.  Hopefully for him, the person he got into it with, and the team that drafts him they can all put it behind them and move on.  The Colts have signed Jabaal Sheard and John Simon at OLB but they still need an inside guy to run the defense.  Foster would make it an almost complete overhaul of their LB corps and that’s long overdue.

16. Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Cam Robinson OT   Alabama

The Ravens lost RT Ricky Wagner in free agency to the Lions and they don’t have great options on the roster for a replacement.  Robinson is a mauler and in the run game he’s a devastating blocker.  His ability to handle outside speed rushers is why teams are questioning his ability to play LT and think he might move inside to OG.  I think he can be a fantastic RT and Ozzie Newsome loves drafting guys from Alabama.  He might have to make a tough choice though if OLB Tim Williams is still available.  That would be a couple of Alabama players at positions of need for the Ravens, call it Ozzie’s Choice.

17. Washington Redskins (8-7-1): Obi Melifonwu SS   Connecticut

There’s always that one guy that comes flying up the draft board late and this kid looks like the real deal.  Melifonwu is a freakish athlete and would be a defense altering safety.  At 6’4 224 lbs. he’s got great length and speed and he’s a great matchup player for the league’s better TEs.  The Redskins need a playmaker in the middle of the defense, it could be an ILB but Melifonwu would make a great addition instead.  The Falcons made a move like this last year in the draft grabbing Keanu Neal and it worked out pretty well for them.

18. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Corey Davis WR   Western Michigan

The Titans have addressed their secondary in free agency and with the fifth pick in this mock draft, that is their biggest area of need.  Not too far behind that is a big play WR for Marcus Mariota to grow with in this offense.  Tajee Sharpe and Rishard Matthews are really solid possession guys but they lack big play ability.  Davis may be a small school product coming out of the MAC but he’s a big-time talent.  He’s exactly the type of WR you need in the NFL today, big, strong, fast and physical.  He would add a new dimension to the Titans offense.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7): OJ Howard TE   Alabama

The Buccaneers need help on defense but OJ Howard might be just a little too tempting to pass up.  A dynamic TE to go along with free agent WR DeSean Jackson and holdover Mike Evans could take Jameis Winston’s game to another level.  I was very tempted to give Bucs either S Jabrill Peppers or an offensive lineman but Howard was fantastic at the Combine and teams see him as a criminally underutilized talent that could be a Pro Bowl caliber player in the NFL.  Jameis Winston could make major strides next season with these offensive weapons around him.

20. Denver Broncos (9-7): Ryan Ramczyk OT   Wisconsin

Russell Okung was not the answer at LT after the Broncos sent Ryan Clady packing.  Okung is on his way out and someone has to block on the left side of the line.  The offense struggled last season because of issues on the line as much as anything.  Ramczyk only played one year at Wisconsin and he’s coming off hip surgery so his medical checks need to check out for him to go in the first round but he would be a day one starter in Denver.  It’s time for the Broncos to get a real solution at LT.

21. Detroit Lions (9-7): Haason Reddick LB   Temple

Reddick is probably the other late rising prospect you haven’t heard of but he started his rise at the Senior Bowl and continued it by looking very impressive at the Combine.  Reddick was a pass rushing DE at Temple but he’s only 234 lbs. so he’ll be a LB in the NFL.  He has shown really impressive athleticism and ability to drop into coverage even though he didn’t do that much at Temple.  The Lions haven’t had much luck at LB with some notable draft busts and DeAndre Levy not being able to stay healthy.  Reddick would give them a top playmaker at LB.  The signing of RT Ricky Wagner addressed their biggest need on the offense.

22. Miami Dolphins (10-6): Forrest Lamp OG   Western Kentucky

This is Mike Mayock’s favorite player to talk about because when Western Kentucky played Alabama earlier last year Lamp more than held his own against the NFL caliber defensive line of the Crimson Tide.  Lamp played LT at Western Kentucky but he’ll likely move inside to guard in the pros because of his less than ideal length.  Don’t be fooled though because if he gets his hands on a guy he’ll win more than he loses.  The Dolphins have jettisoned LT Branden Albert and last year’s first round pick Laremy Tunsil will take over outside leaving his LG spot vacant.  Lamp can step in immediately and Ryan Tannehill will have nothing to fear coming on his blind side.

23. New York Giants (11-5): Dalvin Cook RB   Florida St.

Cook deserves to go higher than this but I’ve had a hard time finding a home for him.  He’s a first round talent and one of the better players in this draft so if he goes somewhere in the top 10 I won’t be the least bit shocked.  Cook is a better all-around RB than Leonard Fournette because he does everything well and is a dynamic playmaker.  Fournette has a size/speed ratio that is impressive and while Cook was fast enough at the Combine he plays faster than he times.  The Giants just cut Rashad Jennings and while Paul Perkins is a nice back he’s not Dalvin Cook.  If Cook goes to a team that knows how to use his talents correctly he might be my favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

24. Oakland Raiders (12-4): Adoree’ Jackson CB   USC

The Raiders CB duo of Sean Smith and David Amerson was fine last season but Smith is 30-years old and there is little to no depth.  Jackson is a smooth athlete with 4.4 speed and he’s just scratching the surface of his abilities.  He hasn’t fully focused on football to this point because he’s also a star track athlete at USC.  Once he goes football full-time with NFL coaching he has the talent to be a top-notch CB.  He could use the year under the tutelage of the veteran Smith to learn the nuances of the position and then really come into his own.

25. Houston Texans (9-7): Jabrill Peppers SS   Michigan

Some people have seen Peppers as a man without a position.  Smart teams see a guy that is a defensive swiss army knife.  He played LB at Michigan this last season out of necessity for the team but his true position in the NFL is strong safety.  The Texans defense was excellent last season even with JJ Watt on the shelf and their safety play wasn’t great.  They could really use a CB to replace the departed AJ Bouye but there is good depth at the position and Peppers is better value than any CB they could take in this mock draft scenario.

26. Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1): Garrett Bolles OT   Utah

If the Seahawks don’t draft at least three offensive linemen in this draft Russell Wilson should sue the team for negligence. They signed Luke Joeckel from Jacksonville but he hasn’t exactly been impressive and starting George Fant at LT is basically willfully allowing the physical abuse of Wilson to continue.  Bolles is a long, athletic OT with good feet and a mean streak.  He would seriously upgrade the offensive line and give Wilson a little peace of mind on his blind side.  Depending on where they want to line up 2^nd year lineman Germain Ifedi and the newly acquired Joeckel they can look for the best offensive lineman in the 2^nd round.  Ifedi could be a RT or OG and so could Joeckel.  Justin Britt found a home at C last season and they would be best to leave him there.

27. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): Raekwon McMillan ILB   Ohio St.

When McMillan declared for the draft it looked like he might be a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick because while he was a very productive LB at Ohio St. he seemed to lack the athleticism of a guy like Reuben Foster.  ILBs don’t go in the first round unless they are superior athletes.  Well, then McMillan decided to go to the Combine and run a 4.61 at 240 lbs. and no one is questioning his athleticism now.  The Chiefs have put off finding a replacement for Derrick Johnson for years, seriously I’ve been talking about it for about five years now.  McMillan would be a fantastic replacement for Johnson because he has the talent and he would step in as a leader like Johnson too.  The Chiefs have other needs but CB is a deep position they can address later and so is the defensive line.

28. Dallas Cowboys (13-3): Taco Charlton DE   Michigan

The last two DEs the Cowboys drafted were Demarcus Lawrence, who can’t stay healthy and Randy Gregory, who can’t stay off drugs.  They pieced together a solid defense last year to complement their impressive offense but they need pass rushing help.  Charlton is a big man at 6’6 277 lbs. and he would make a great addition on the edge.  He can get to the QB but he plays all downs well and they could really use that in Dallas.  The Cowboys could choose to address their CB position as they have some questions there or they could look to find a replacement for the now retired Doug Free at RT or the aging Jason Witten at TE.  TE is a deep position so they should look to grab one later because Witten can’t play forever.

29. Green Bay Packers (10-6): Takkarist McKinley OLB   UCLA

Nick Perry re-signed with the Packers but Julius Peppers is returning to Carolina and Datone Jones has also departed.  The Packers are already too reliant on Clay Matthews to bring pressure.  They need to get a young pass rusher to help Matthews and eventually replace him.  McKinley is a good-looking pass rushing prospect and he fits the OLB mold they need.  He could spend a year learning from Perry and Matthews and while giving them a solid situational pass rusher.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): Tim Williams OLB   Alabama

Contrary to what the Steelers believe, James Harrison can’t play forever and with Jarvis Jones leaving in free agency OLB is a major need.  Williams is a very talented pass rusher in space and projects better to OLB in a 3-4 than DE in a 4-3 because of his size.  His admission to teams at the Combine that he failed several drug tests while at Alabama is going to cause some concern.  It’s admirable that he came clean and isn’t trying to hide it but with recent issues with prospects like Randy Gregory it will give teams pause.  Talent wise this would be an absolute steal for the Steelers because Williams is legitimately the second-best pass rusher behind Myles Garrett.  He doesn’t fit every team well because he gets swallowed up by big offensive linemen easily due to his size so he’s a better fit for 3-4 defensive teams.

31. Atlanta Falcons (11-5): Budda Baker FS   Washington

With the free agent additions of DE Jack Crawford and DT Dontari Poe the Falcons have addressed some needs up front on their defense, the secondary still needs some attention.  Keanu Neal was a good addition at SS last season and Budda Baker would make a nice partner for him.  The Falcons will get back CB Desmond Trufant from injury and adding Baker would really improve the backend of their defense.  Baker isn’t the biggest guy and that’s the only knock on him.  He’s an excellent player and he and Neal would form a dynamic playmaking duo at safety.  Dan Quinn knows what it’s like to have a great pair of safeties from his time in Seattle where he had Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas.

32. New Orleans Saints (from New England 14-2): Fabian Moreau CB   UCLA

The Saints picked up this pick in the Brandin Cooks trade and now they can use it to take advantage of the depth of the CB class.  An extra first round pick always comes in handy and in this case, they grab the underrated Fabian Moreau (okay, so Mike Mayock loves him but he’s not a household name).  Moreau has been flying under the radar but he had a really good showing in the end of the year events and he looked great at the combine.  The Saints need CBs and even if they sign Malcolm Butler to a restricted free agent offer sheet and the Patriots don’t match it (this is the most likely scenario) they still need a CB.  Moreau would give them a nice one to pair with Butler.

 

 

 

 

After 5 years the Greg Davis era has finally come to a close with Davis announcing his retirement yesterday afternoon.  I had to fight the urge to stop and buy a few bottles of champagne and spray them all over my apartment yesterday after work.  I wanted to celebrate like the Cubs after winning the World Series.  Do you think we could have a celebration rally at Carver Hawkeye Arena like we just won the National Championship?  Sorry, you’re right, we would have to hold it at Kinnick to accommodate the number of people who would likely attend.  Of course there were mixed feeling immediately after hearing the news, total elation that Davis was finally out and complete terror that Kirk Ferentz would be hiring another offensive coordinator.  The obvious move is for Kirk to promote offensive line coach and run game coordinator Brian Ferentz to the position.  He didn’t make his son the run game coordinator two years ago for no reason.  It was a calculated move to give Brian a chance to have a say in the direction of the offense.  Two years ago that move helped make the Iowa offense good enough to take the Hawkeyes to the Rose Bowl, the offense regressed badly this last year but it wasn’t the running game that was at fault.  I’ve written plenty about the sorry state of Iowa’s passing game and the inability of the coaching staff to develop WRs which is why I’m very hopeful that the retirement of Greg Davis means WR coach Bobby Kennedy is looking for a quick exit too.  Kennedy was a Davis guy and hopefully Iowa looks to make a change there too.  Let’s take a look at a few scenarios, one that will never happen and a few that could.

Two years ago when the Hawkeyes were coming off the embarrassing bowl loss to Tennessee and Kirk Ferentz held the press conference to announce CJ Beathard would be the starting QB going forward I was hoping he would make an offensive coordinator change.  He didn’t do it then, instead he made Brian Ferentz the run game coordinator and kept Greg Davis.  I wanted him to go out and hire a young, innovative offensive mind and I suggested then East Carolina offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley, Ferentz didn’t do that and Bob Stoops scooped up Riley instead.  I would love it if Kirk did something similar but that just isn’t his style and there is no way he hires some young hotshot who would come in and block Brian’s path to the offensive coordinator position.  There are a few experienced guys he might look at that would make some sense so let’s look at them.

Joe Philbin

Philbin was Ferentz’s original offensive line coach back in 1999 and was here for a few years before leaving to become an assistant with the Green Bay Packers.  He rose up the ranks with the Packers to eventually become Mike McCarthy’s offensive coordinator and finally became the Miami Dolphins head coach.  His Miami tenure was pretty brutal and was marred by the Jonathan Martin bullying incident.  This past season he worked as the assistant head coach and offensive line coach for the Indianapolis Colts and did a pretty good job of making the best of a not so great group of linemen.  The biggest issue with Philbin returning is that it has always been believed that the reason he left college coaching was that he hated recruiting and something tells me that after nearly 15 years the way recruiting is now would not be a selling point to him.  I also think it’s a pipe dream to think a guy that was an NFL head coach two years ago would like the idea of becoming the offensive coordinator for a college program.  And don’t throw Greg Schiano serving as defensive coordinator at Ohio St. after his stint as the Tampa Bay head coach at me, that’s serving as Urban Meyer’s assistant while hoping to land a college head coaching job.  I don’t think Philbin wants to eventually get a college head coaching job I think he wants another shot in the NFL.  All that said I would be extremely happy to see Philbin return.  He has plenty of experience and has worked for a few different coaches.  He also has a relationship with Ferentz where I think he could make some changes that wouldn’t bother Kirk’s sensibilities and Kirk would trust him enough to allow it.

A couple of guys that don’t have ties to Kirk Ferentz

Tom Clements (Green Bay Packers assistant coach)

Clements name came up the last time Iowa was hiring an offensive coordinator but I’m not sure how far he got into the process.  Clements has been working in Green Bay for over a decade and Aaron Rodgers sings his praises.  He actually called plays for a short while a couple of years ago but the team’s offense struggled and head coach Mike McCarthy took the play calling duties back from him so that’s not a ringing endorsement for his experience.  I’m not sure how innovative he would be and Clements is 63 years old so he wouldn’t be a long-term solution.

Matt Limegrover

I have no earthly idea if Limegrover is in the running but he should be.  He was the offensive coordinator at Minnesota under Jerry Kill and was a very good play caller.  He was excellent at breaking tendencies and keeping defenses off-balance.  He is a run first, pro style offense kind of coach who would match up well with Kirk’s preferred style but he thinks outside of the box when it comes to game planning.  He spent this last season as offensive line coach at Penn St. after Tracy Claeys fired him at Minnesota when he replaced Kill.  That was the moment I knew Claeys was an idiot and had no idea what he was doing.  Limegrover fixed a terrible offensive line at Penn St. this last year and made them pretty good.  He might be a bit redundant with Brian Ferentz though as both of them are offensive line coaches by nature.  Limegrover’s experience in a similar style offense and as a play caller might make him a perfect choice to be a co-coordinator with Brian since Brian has never called plays.

Now for the obvious choice

Brian Ferentz

The calls of nepotism would be loud should Kirk promote his son to offensive coordinator but that would be unfortunate.  Let’s pretend his name is Brian Smith for a minute not Brian Ferentz and look at his resume.  He spent time on the New England Patriots staff under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and coached tight ends.  This was during the years the Patriots dominated with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernadez.  He then took the offensive line coaching job with the Iowa Hawkeyes.  After a couple of years he was promoted to run game coordinator and in his first year in that position the Hawkeyes went 12-0 during the regular season, won the Big Ten West title, almost beat Michigan St. in the conference championship game and made the Rose Bowl for the first time in 25 years.  In year two as run game coordinator (and offensive line coach) his offensive line won the Joe Moore award for best offensive line in the country (and he did it having to use multiple combinations) and for the first time in Hawkeye football history Iowa had two running backs go for over 1000 yards in a season.  There’s a very good chance that if he put this resume together at another school under another name I would be calling him one of the young hotshot offensive minds we should be looking at.  Having the last name Ferentz has its disadvantage when it comes to the public perception but it I think it has a built-in advantage when it comes to actually doing the job.  Kirk Ferentz isn’t going to change his philosophy when it comes to his offense, he isn’t going to hire some spread offense guru and turn the keys over to him.  Kirk Ferentz isn’t making a call to Chip Kelly and he isn’t taking a chance on a guy like Sonnie Cumbie from TCU.  The Air Raid offense isn’t coming to Iowa City as long as Kirk Ferentz is the coach.  Brian Ferentz has an advantage in the fact that he can get Kirk to listen when it comes to making the subtle changes that need to happen.  Iowa doesn’t need to become a spread passing offense to be successful but running a few plays from the spread formation would be a nice wrinkle in the offense.  So would scheming to get some of your playmakers open and that’s about game planning and play calling.  Some people don’t believe that Brian Ferentz’s time in New England counts for much because he worked with great players so he shouldn’t get credit for coaching them.  Here’s what he should get credit for.  In New England the Patriots play to their strengths.  The Patriots, whether it was Charlie Weis, Josh McDaniels or Bill O’Brien calling plays, always plays to its strengths.  They were once successful running the ball with Corey Dillon, then they were a high-flying passing offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, then they were a down the seem passing offense with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, then it was Julian Edelman and this last season it has been the short passing game to RB James White and the pounding of big back LaGarrett Blount.  The one thing I truly hope Brian Ferentz picked up while working in New England is to use the talent you have and fit the offense around them.  This past season Brian Ferentz coordinated a running attack using the strength of his offensive line and a pair of complementary running backs to make a dominant running game on a team that had absolutely no threat of a passing attack.  He balanced a power running back LeShun Daniels, who has had injury issues throughout his career, with a dynamic speed back Akrum Wadley, who shouldn’t be counted on to carry the ball 25 times a game because that might slow him down.  It’s time for Kirk to sink or swim with Brian at offensive coordinator.  This is either the end of the road for Kirk if it doesn’t work out or it’s the beginning of Brian’s ascent to his head coaching future.  I would be all for Kirk bringing in a young offensive mind like David Raih to be the QB coach and potentially help coordinate the passing game, maybe we will run some routes more than seven yards down the field.  Hopefully Iowa will find a good WR coach that will actually develop more than one WR, god forbid Matt VandeBerg gets hurt again and we have no one that can get open.  I think Nathan Stanley has a lot of promise at QB and he would be excellent if we get him a QB coach that knows what he’s doing, a WR coach that can develop some talent (there is talent there to work with) and an offensive coordinator that will put him in a position to succeed.

Good Luck Coach Ferentz (both of you).

 

2017 NFL Mock Draft

Not every NFL Draft is created equal and that’s the fundamental misunderstanding for many fans and unfortunately for many fans it’s misunderstood by a lot of NFL front offices.  The NFL has become a passing league so there is a premium on QBs that can throw the ball, OTs that can protect the passer and pass rushers who can disrupt that passing game.  That makes QBs, OTs and pass rushers valuable and that means teams make mistakes when a position is weak.  That’s going to happen this year because two out of those three positions are not very good.  The QB spot is always overvalued and whether it’s Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer or Mitch Trubisky going as the first, second and third QB in the draft I’ll almost guarantee they go too high.  If I’m an NFL GM or Head Coach, you couldn’t pay me enough money to hitch my wagon to any of those three QBs for the future.  The OT position needs juniors Cam Robinson of Alabama or Ryan Ramczyk of Wisconsin to declare for the draft or the position might go undrafted in the first round and neither of those guys are going to be mistaken for Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace.  Pass rushers are where it is at in the draft at both DE and OLB.  DE Myles Garrett and DE/DT Jonathan Allen are the cream of the crop but Derek Barnett, Solomon Thomas, Taco Charlton, DeMarcus Walker, Charles Harris and Carl Lawson at DE along with Tim Williams and Takkarist McKinley at OLB could all be 1^st round picks.  Cornerback is another good position although without the dominant players up top like Garrett and Allen.  A 1^st round case can be made for CBs Marlon Humphrey, Jalen “Teez” Tabor, Desmond King, Sidney Jones, Quincy Wilson, Adoree’ Jackson, Gareon Conley, Marshon Lattimore and Jourdan Lewis.

If you’re looking for defense in the 2017 draft, you are in luck.  If you’re looking for offense I hope you need a RB.  QB, OT and TE are especially lacking in upper end talent while WR has some top guys but isn’t especially deep.  Mike Williams, John Ross, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis and Dede Westbrook could help some teams out next season at WR everyone else is just a guy.  At RB, the media and pundits love Leonard Fournette, he’s good and all but NFL teams love Dalvin Cook, he could be special.  Christian McCaffrey will be a special weapon for someone but I’m not sure how much of a RB he will be or how much he’ll be used in other ways.  As has become customary at RB there are going to be guys that get drafted in the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th rounds and beyond that become very good NFL players.  D’Onta Foreman, Corey Clement, Jeremy McNichols, Samaje Perine, Wayne Gallman, Brian Hill and may I even say LeShun Daniels could become major contributors to NFL teams over the next several years.

My mock draft is always part prediction, part advice and will likely be completely wrong.  It’s a fun exercise for me and if you’re an NFL fan I hope you enjoy it.

 

1. Cleveland Browns (1-15): Myles Garrett DE/OLB   Texas A&M

The Browns need to figure out their QB situation but drafting one here would be a huge mistake.  Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer and Mitch Trubisky are not changing the fortunes of this team.  Adding a player like Garrett as a pass rusher opposite the recently acquired Jamie Collins (assuming they keep Collins long-term) would go a long way towards fixing the Browns defense.  Garrett is a pass rushing beast and he would have had better numbers this year if he hadn’t played a number of games on a gimpy ankle.  Garrett and Jonathan Allen are the best players in this draft and if the Browns go with Allen here instead you will get no argument from me.  Garrett is a better outside pass rusher while Allen can play all over the line and dominate at each spot.  Either one is a great addition that would make a major difference for the defense.

2. San Francisco 49ers (2-14): Mitch Trubisky QB   North Carolina

I’m not in favor of this choice but I think the 49ers go with an offensive head coach (like Kyle Shanahan) and they completely start over at QB.  Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder are all shown the door and unless they make a move for Mike Glennon in free agency or trade for Jimmy Garoppolo they need someone to take the snap.  Trubisky might be more Shanahan’s style of QB and I think the 49ers will spend big on offensive linemen to protect him.  If they invest in the line and get Carlos Hyde healthy I think Shanahan could build a solid offense around Trubisky and not ask him to do too much too soon.  Expectation should be low next year for whomever is the QB and the new head coach.  Jonathan Allen is the best player here but he’s a little too redundant after the team invested back-to-back 1^st round picks on Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, two very similar players even if they aren’t as good as Allen.

3. Chicago Bears (3-13): Jonathan Allen DL   Alabama

The Bears luck into arguably the best player in the draft.  They have more pressing needs at QB, OT and probably defensive back but there is no way John Fox passes on Allen if he’s still around.  The team needs to move on from Jay Cutler but this team is far from competing for anything meaningful so they could just give Matt Barkley a shot to start next season, if he’s terrible they get another high draft pick to help turn things around.  They need help at OT but this is way too high for Cam Robinson or Ryan Ramczyk and if they blow this pick on Watson or Kizer at QB they will set this franchise back 4-5 more years.  Take the best player in the draft and either go with Barkley or grab a QB later.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13): Dalvin Cook RB   Florida St.

The Jaguars defense wasn’t too bad this year and with another year for all that young talent to grow together they could be even better.  They would also benefit from Blake Bortles not throwing terrible interceptions that put them in bad situations.  Whether it’s Josh McDaniels or another offensive coach I think the team goes with someone they believe can salvage Bortles as the franchise QB.  In 2015 he had a solid year and while he regressed badly there is still something to work with there.  The o-line could use re-enforcements but most of all they need a running game.  Leonard Fournette is the big name everyone talks about, “he’s the next Adrian Peterson”, hate to break it too you but the league is going in a different direction offensively.  If McDaniels takes this job imagine what he could do with a RB like Dalvin Cook.  Cook is a multi-dimensional player and they could use him like the Patriots use James White and Dion Lewis except he’s also good enough to be the every down back.  Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon just didn’t get it done although they both still have value as roleplaying backs.

5. Tennessee Titans (from LA Rams 4-12): Marlon Humphrey CB   Alabama

The Titans had a winning record this year at 9-7 which is quite a turnaround from last year.  This pick comes courtesy of the trade with the Rams and should really help this team take another step.  Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray have the offense under control and while they could use another top WR there are more pressing needs on defense.  The secondary needs a lot of help and Marlon Humphrey is a big, young and talented CB that could start from day one.  In a division where you have guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson and TY Hilton investing in a top-flight CB would be a wise choice.  There are other very good CBs in this draft but Humphrey probably has the highest ceiling and while it may take him a year or two to mature he’ll get there eventually.

6. New York Jets (5-11): Deshaun Watson QB   Clemson

The Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment is over and the Geno Smith era never got off the ground.  I don’t think Bryce Petty has shown enough for the Jets to think he’s the answer and they obviously don’t have a lot of faith in Christian Hackenberg given the fact they didn’t even give him a shot this year.  Watson has been a dynamic college player and won a lot of games but I’m not sure his game translates to the NFL.  To me he’s a poor man’s RGIII.  Perhaps someone can figure out a way to use him but I think defenses figure him out after a while and he struggles against better defensive schemes in the league.  It’s understandable if the Jets feel they need to take this shot but they would be better off addressing their secondary where they were really bad this year.  Teez Tabor or Marshon Lattimore or a whole host of other CBs would be a nice upgrade for them.

7. San Diego Chargers (5-11): Cam Robinson OT   Alabama

Robinson isn’t the seventh best player in the draft but right now he would be the best OT in the draft and that means something to a team like the Chargers that need help on the line.  The Chargers are a tough team to gauge because of the massive amount of injuries they have suffered the last couple of years.  They need depth for sure but they need to protect the aging and stationary Phillip Rivers and open holes for Melvin Gordon.  Robinson isn’t a great pass blocker and he has work to do there but he is a dominant run blocker so he could help Gordon tremendously.  The starting OT duo of King Dunlop and Joe Barksdale isn’t exactly imposing so Robinson would step in right away.  The Chargers have other issues like safety where a guy like Jamal Adams from LSU or Malik Hooker from Ohio St. might help but protection up front should be a priority.

8. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Leonard Fournette RB   LSU

The Panthers need OT help badly and they could use a CB after letting Josh Norman go and no one would blame them if they grab a pass rushing DE but someone in the top ten always surprises and this is where I think it happens.  Jonathan Stewart has a lot of miles on his legs, is owed a big cap hit next season and he’s never able to stay healthy for very long, that’s a bad combination for a RB.  Fournette would be a nice replacement and they can address the o-line later in the draft.  He’s not my favorite RB in this draft but he’s a very good player.  Jonathan Stewart has always had size and speed when healthy and Fournette could step in right away and they wouldn’t miss a beat.  No one is going to see this one coming but I don’t think anyone saw this team drafting Kelvin Benjamin a couple of years ago when they needed an offensive lineman, or when they took Shaq Thompson instead of a lineman or when they drafted their two stud DTs back-to-back when they needed an offensive lineman, are you sensing the theme yet?

9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1): Reuben Foster ILB   Alabama

Vontaze Burfict can’t seem to stay healthy, Rey Maualuga isn’t getting faster with age and Karlos Dansby can’t play forever so the Bengals need some youth and speed at LB.  Foster is a tone setter and he could change the dynamic of the defense just by showing up.  He hits like a truck and covers plenty of ground.  The Bengals need an infusion of playmaking in the defense and Foster could provide that in spades.  Yes I am well aware that I have four guys from Alabama in the top 9, there’s a reason they are playing for the National title again.

10. Buffalo Bills (7-9): Jalen “Teez” Tabor CB   Florida

The Bills might need a QB if they don’t want to pay Tyrod Taylor a bunch of money to come back but if they keep Anthony Lynn as their head coach it doesn’t make sense to switch QBs now.  They could lose Stephon Gilmore at CB which would create a big hole in their defense.  Tabor could start immediately opposite Ronald Darby and he’s a very good player.  It’s possible they could go with WR Mike Williams from Clemson as they have a bunch of WR free agents this year and Sammy Watkins can seem to stay healthy.  Williams might fill a bigger need but Tabor is the better choice.

11. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Jabrill Peppers LB/S   Michigan

Peppers is a tough player to place simply because he’s not a natural at any one position.  That worked for him at Michigan as they moved him all over the defense playing OLB, S and CB and while he’s the size of an NFL safety that might not be the best use of his talent.  The Saints defense has been atrocious for a few years now so any playmaker on that side of the ball would be a welcome addition.  Peppers could pair with Vonn Bell to be a new safety combo replacing Jairus Byrd and Roman Harper and that might give the Saints some versatility in the secondary that allows them both to make plays.  I wouldn’t be shocked if the Saints go with a pass rusher like Derek Barnett at DE or Tim Williams at OLB because they need to generate more pressure.  A CB like Sidney Jones or Desmond King wouldn’t be out of line either.  Basically, this has to be a defensive player.

12. Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia 7-9): Jamal Adams SS   LSU

I would advise the Browns to either trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, sign Mike Glennon or give Cody Kessler a shot for the year next year because the QBs aren’t worth it.  They could seriously upgrade their defense by taking Garrett #1 and grabbing a dynamic safety like Adams here.  They need a talent infusion all over the defense so getting a couple of no doubt starters in the top 12 here would be a good plan.  They have blown it before when they had two 1^st round picks (remember the Justin Gilbert/Johnny Manziel year?).  Garrett can pressure the passer and Adams can clean up in the secondary.

13. Arizona Cardinals (7-8-1): DeShone Kizer QB   Notre Dame

I’ve said my peace about the QBs in this draft but there are teams that need QBs and this is a team that needs to make plans for the future.  Carson Palmer just turned 37 at the end of this season and their backup is 32-year-old Drew Stanton, not exactly a long-term solution.  Kizer is a big, strong QB who can wing it and could use a year sitting behind a guy like Palmer and learning.  Head coach Bruce Arians is 64 years old and has had some health issues so I could see he and Palmer coming back for one last go and if their offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin doesn’t get a head coaching job this year he could be in line to replace Arians and have a head start with a young QB.

14. Indianapolis Colts (8-8): Ryan Ramczyk OT   Wisconsin

The Colts defense isn’t very good but this team needs to protect the franchise and that is Andrew Luck.  Ramczyk is a one year starter at Wisconsin who transferred in from a Div. III school and he may not come out but if he does he’s very likely a 1^st round pick.  He isn’t going to be confused for Joe Thomas but he’s a huge upgrade for the Colts at RT for now.  He could play LT at some point but for now he would really improve their line overall and become a very good run blocking RT.  They could go for ILB Zach Cunningham or a number of different CBs but get the o-line fixed first and then worry about the defense.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota 8-8): Mike Williams WR   Clemson

The Eagles need help on the offensive line, LT Jason Peters is closing in on the end of his career, and they could use some secondary help at CB but they invested heavily in Carson Wentz and their WR corps is underwhelming and beat up.  Williams is a true #1 type WR in the NFL and he will become Wentz’s favorite player.  He would make a fantastic complement to Jordan Matthews because Williams is an outside WR while Matthews does his best work in the slot.  Both Matthews and Nelson Agholor ended the season injured so reinforcements are certainly necessary for Wentz to continue his growth.

16. Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Solomon Thomas DE/OLB   Stanford

The Ravens may run out of pixie dust to sprinkle over Terrell Suggs to keep him going and the magic has already stopped working on Elvis Dumervil who can’t stay healthy.  Their defense relies on a good pass rush and they could take Thomas who is built a bit like Suggs and turn him from a DE to an OLB like they did once upon a time with Suggs.  Thomas is young and has some physical maturing to do but he’s a major talent that would help the Ravens keep their streak of impressive defenses going.

17. Washington Redskins (7-8-1): John Ross WR   Washington

The Redskins have to resign Kirk Cousins or they will set the franchise back several years because there is simply no good alternatives.  DeSean Jackson is a free agent and they may not want to spend the money to keep him but they need Cousins to have a deep threat if they want to keep the offense moving forward.  John Ross is almost always compared to Jackson because of his similar stature and his ability to track the deep ball.  Ross would be a wise and cost effective replacement for Jackson and could build a nice rapport with Cousins.

18. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Corey Davis WR   Western Michigan

I have the Titans addressing their CB need with Marlon Humphrey and they could certainly use more secondary help so another CB like Sidney Jones, Marshon Lattimore or Desmond King isn’t out of the question and a safety like Malik Hooker would be a wise choice too.  However, this team needs a dynamic outside threat at WR to really elevate Marcus Mariota’s game.  Rishard Matthews is a real pro and Tajae Sharpe is a solid possession guy who can move the chains but Davis is an explosive game breaker.  Don’t be fooled because he played at Western Michigan, he broke the receiving yardage record for a career because he’s dynamic.  At 6’3 213 lbs. he’s the type of fast and physical WR you have to have in the NFL today to really get your offense going.  He’s one of my favorite players in the draft class.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7): Malik Hooker FS   Ohio St.

The Bucs are probably ahead of schedule with the rebuild and they were technically still alive for a playoff spot going into Week 17.  That is largely due to the maturation of QB Jameis Winston and a defense that played quite well for defensive coordinator Mike Smith.  The defense played above its talent level especially in the secondary, they need a serious upgrade at safety.  Malik Hooker came on strong this year and he third year safety is still growing up but he’s a playmaker in the pass defense and he would be a major upgrade for the Bucs.  The team could look for a little help on the offensive line or find a new running mate for Mike Evans at WR but Hooker is too good to pass up here.

20. Denver Broncos (9-7): Zach Cunningham ILB   Vanderbilt

The Broncos desperately need help on the offensive line so it’s completely possible John Elway makes a trade to move up to get Cam Robinson or Ryan Ramczyk and he really should.  If he stays here he might have to reach and this is where the over drafting of a guy like Roderick Johnson or Garrett Bolles could happen, that would be a mistake.  If they are still picking here Cunningham would be far too valuable to let slide any further.  He’s an excellent LB who could be a long-term solution inside after they let Danny Trevathan walk last year.  The Bronco defense was good but they missed Malik Jackson and Trevathan in the middle of their run defense.  Cunningham isn’t well known to most casual fans because he plays middle linebacker at Vanderbilt, not exactly a powerhouse.  However, he’s going to be a very good pro.

21. Detroit Lions (9-7): Taco Charlton DE   Michigan

The Lions need a DE opposite Ziggy Ansah even if they don’t lose Devin Taylor in free agency.  Another pass rusher is always a good idea and while I technically like Derek Barnett better he’s a bit smaller and I think Charlton fits their need for a bigger DE better.  Charlton is 6’5 272 lbs. so he has fantastic size for the position.  I did not pick him because it’s Detroit and he played at Michigan, that’s just an added bonus.

22. Miami Dolphins (10-6): Derek Barnett DE   Tennessee

The Mario Williams experiment was a total dud and the Dolphins are likely going to make him a cap casualty after the season.  Couple that with the age of Cameron Wake (he was fantastic this year but he’s 34) and the Dolphins need some new blood at DE.  Barnett is a powerfully built edge rusher who understands how to get to the QB.  He isn’t always the flashiest guy but he’s dynamic when it comes to creating havoc for opponents.  This team is probably going to need a new guard to replace Laremy Tunsil who is likely to slide out to LT to replace Brandon Albert but that can wait until later.

23. New York Giants (11-5): Dan Feeney OG   Indiana

The Giants aren’t afraid to take offensive linemen the first round of the draft and they need help for sure.  It would be great if they could get a LT so they could move Erick Flowers to RT but that isn’t happening in this scenario.  They could use an upgrade on the interior and Dan Feeney is a fantastic guard that could really help them both in the running game and the passing game.  The Giants have a history of grabbing pass rushers or defensive tackles but I think they go with Feeney, it’s not a sexy pick but it’s a productive one.

24. Oakland Raiders (12-4): Marshon Lattimore CB   Ohio St.

The Raiders season fell apart when Derek Carr broke his leg but they need to take advantage if they are picking a little higher to get a CB that will help them.  Lattimore is a late rising prospect who has only started this year but his ceiling is quite high.  He is going to pass his more heralded teammate Gareon Conley as a prospect and get picked before him.  The Raiders need help at CB and Lattimore could be a huge addition there and he’s just scratching the surface of his potential.

25. Houston Texans (9-7): Raekwon McMillan LB   Ohio St.

The Texans need help on the defensive line with JJ Watt’s wonky back and Vince Wilfork’s advancing age and declining play.  There is no top-notch nose tackle in this draft and the best DT is probably Malik McDowell but his been inconsistent and he’s banged up.  He’s not a fit for interior spot and they can find a better fit later in the draft.  What they can do here is fill in the spot that has been the ghost of Brian Cushing.  Cushing is an excellent player when he’s healthy and not suspended for PEDs but those times are becoming harder to come by lately.  McMillan is an excellent middle backer and would be a nice long-term partner for Bernardrick McKinney.  He would upgrade their run defense up the middle and he’ll play more than Cushing.

26. Green Bay Packers (10-6): Tim Williams OLB   Alabama

The Packers have a number of outside pass rushers coming up on free agency and while I’m sure they can bring Julius Peppers back again he’s almost as old as I am so the end isn’t too far away.  Williams is a pass rushing menace for the Tide and he would surely take some pressure off of Clay Matthews.  Williams is basically a specialist for Alabama and he needs to refine other parts of his game but he has one elite skill and every NFL team needs that one elite skill, even if they already have it they want more of it.  There’s a very distinct chance Williams doesn’t fall this far so if he’s gone the Packers can take advantage of the very deep pool of top pass rushers in this draft and grab a guy like Carl Lawson or Takkarist McKinney or Charles Harris or DeMarcus Walker, okay you get my point.  Good year to need a pass rusher.

27. Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1): Garrett Bolles OT   Utah

If you don’t know who Bolles is don’t feel bad.  I’ve only seen a little bit of him and I can say he’s a solid player that has no business getting drafted in the first round of the draft.  This the point where a team’s desperate need and the dearth of quality players at that position pushes a prospect up the board higher than he should go.  The Seahawks offensive line is simply offensive to offensive lines everywhere.  To say they need offensive line help is the understatement of the decade.  Bolles isn’t the next Walter Jones for the Seahawks but he’s a day one starter at LT because they have no worthy competition for the spot.  If the Seahawks first four draft picks aren’t offensive linemen then I have no idea what they are doing.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): Takkarist McKinney OLB   UCLA

Jarvis Jones has not turned out to be the pass rusher the Steelers were hoping for, Bud Dupree’s season was shortened by injury and James Harrison is literally older than I am.  For the first time in quite a while a position other than CB is the top need for the Steelers.  McKinney is a freakish athlete with electric speed off the edge.  He came to UCLA from a JUCO and got a late start last year but he’s made the most of his time on the field.  He would be huge addition for a team that generates it’s pass rush from the OLBs in its 3-4 defensive scheme.

29. Atlanta Falcons (11-5): Malik McDowell   DT   Michigan St.

McDowell didn’t have the greatest year which went right along with Michigan St.’s less than stellar season, okay they sucked.  He is a physical specimen with a high revving motor and the Falcons can afford to take a shot on a guy that’s falling a little bit.  They need better play from their interior defensive line and Dan Quinn likes guys that are versatile and can move inside or out and that fits McDowell perfectly.  The Falcons could use a CB too so it’s possible they grab Sidney Jones or Desmond King to pair with Desmond Trufant.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): DeMarcus Walker DE   Florida St.

The Chiefs run a 3-4 defense and they need DEs and it would help if those guys could get some pressure on the QB so it doesn’t all fall on Justin Houston, Dee Ford and the aging Tamba Hali.  It would be smart to grab an ILB if one of Reuben Foster, Zach Cunningham or Raekwon McMillan falls but if those three are gone they can wait.  Walker isn’t your typical tall, lanky 3-4 DE but he’s a guy with the ability to play inside or out so he could be very good in the Chiefs defense.

31. Dallas Cowboys (13-3): Desmond King CB   Iowa

The Cowboys are going to be getting a little thin in the secondary if they don’t re-sign some guys.  King could be an excellent CB but there are plenty of people in the league that think his ultimate position will end up being safety.  The Cowboys already have Byron Jones at safety and in the pass happy NFL it wouldn’t be the worst idea to have two safeties with CB coverage skills like Jones and King.  King is also a more instinctual player who relies less on athleticism while Jones is a freakish athlete, they could make quite the pair.

32. New England Patriots (13-3): O.J. Howard TE   Alabama

I was all ready to give the Patriots a big, physical WR to complement Julian Edelman and he rest of the runts they use at WR.  Then Bill Belichick did the most Bill Belichick thing he could do and he grabbed Michael Floyd off the waiver wire after the Cardinals dropped him following his DUI arrest.  Floyd is a free agent at the end of the year but he’ll cost virtually nothing because of the DUI and his lack of production this year.  This means next year he’ll catch 75 passes for about 1000 yards from Tom Brady.  The Pats might need a pass rusher if they lose to many of their free agent ones but I think Belichick might hedge his bets on Gronk’s back.  Gronkowski is no sure thing after another injury this year and Martellus Bennett will eventually wear out his welcome, he always does.  O.J. Howard is a fantastic athlete that has been underused at Alabama and he could explode in the Patriots offense either as a complement to Gronk or as his replacement.

 

 

 

 

NFL Coaching Carousel and the Playoffs

It’s the silly season in the NFL as teams didn’t wait for Black Monday to start firing coaches (the Rams, Bills and Jaguars didn’t even wait for the season to end).  The Chargers and 49ers pulled the trigger before the last gameday of the season ended and the biggest surprise so far was Gary Kubiak announcing his retirement at 55 because of health issues, best of luck to him and his family (something tells me his good friend John Elway will keep him around the Broncos family in some capacity).  That’s six openings with more that could follow.  I bring this up because I’m working on a mock draft and who replaces these guys can have a huge effect on the draft so I’m going to make a few predictions for the sake of doing this mock draft.

The Bills keep interim coach Anthony Lynn, he’s the anti-Rex Ryan.  Lynn could build a solid staff seeing as he has been a coach in the league for quite some time and has plenty of connections.  The Broncos wait a week to interview Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph (the Dolphins will be out of the playoffs next week, no way they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh with Matt Moore at QB) and they hire him to replace Kubiak.  The Jaguars GM David Caldwell has a relationship with Josh McDaniels (they played college football together) and I think he convinces McDaniels that he can fix Blake Bortles and the rest of the roster is pretty damn good.  The 49ers need a complete overhaul after finally booting GM Trent Baalke and letting Chip Kelly go, enter Mike Shanahan as the football czar and Kyle Shanahan as the head coach.  San Diego GM Tom Telesco was also a college teammate of David Caldwell and Josh McDaniels but Phillip Rivers is closer to the end of his career than the beginning and Telesco is likely on a shorter leash than Caldwell.  The Chargers don’t have a natural move here so I think they take a shot on a lesser known quantity, Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin, a good coach that could make the most of Phillip Rivers (he’s been coaching Carson Palmer so he’s used to aging pocket passers).  Now for the quick domino effect, the LA Rams make a trade with the New Orleans Saints for head coach Sean Payton who they hope can bring the best out of Jared Goff.  That leaves the Saints looking for a new head guy and they grab their former assistant Doug Marrone (the interim fill-in for Gus Bradley in Jacksonville, former head coach in Buffalo and at Syracuse).  Marrone is a known quantity to the Saints, he knows Drew Brees and he won’t demand as much money or power as Sean Payton or some other coaches.  That’s seven openings and there are still a few that look safe but might open up.  The Bears could can John Fox but he gets another year, same with Todd Bowles with the Jets.  Marvin Lewis says he’s coming back to Cincinnati but the owner hasn’t proclaimed that just yet.  Jim Irsay might wake up on the wrong side of the bed and clean house in Indianapolis meaning GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano are gone but I think he waits a year and then clears the deck to go after Jim Harbaugh.  The Lions might give Jim Caldwell the boot even after making the playoffs because they team collapsed down the stretch and lost the division to the Packers.  If they do move on, either current coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter (offensive) or Teryl Austin (defensive) could get the nod, they team seems on the right path. The last possible move could be a mutual parting of the Houston Texans and head coach Bill O’Brien.  O’Brien might be smart to get out of Houston before Brock Osweiler does any more damage to his coach’s reputation (reportedly O’Brien was not in favor of giving Osweiler a huge free agent deal last summer).  If Houston loses to a severely wounded Raiders team this week O’Brien may be on the market and he becomes a top candidate for every open job.  I’m certainly going to be wrong about some of these, okay a lot of these, okay probably all of these but maybe I get one or two right.  Perhaps Nick Caserio leaves the Patriots to become the 49ers GM, takes McDaniels with him as head coach and they trade for QB Jimmy Garoppolo, that would make things interesting for sure.  The NFC playoffs look pretty tough with the Cowboys having a great year, the Falcons looking very strong and the Giants and Packers possibly playing the best football of any teams right now.  The Seahawks could beat anyone at any time too.  The Lions aren’t playing great but that still leaves 5 out of 6 teams with a legitimate shot to move forward.  The AFC playoffs don’t exactly look like murder’s row.  The Patriots are clearly the top dog with the Chiefs as the two seed and Pittsburgh at number three.  The Texans, Raiders and Dolphins are all being led by back up QBs or guys that should be back up QBs.  Brock Osweiler may have to step back into his starting role if Tom Savage isn’t cleared in the concussion protocol.  The Raiders already lost Derek Carr and now Matt McGloin has a pinched nerve, good luck Connor Cook you may be making your first career start in the playoffs (don’t worry too much though it might be against Brock Osweiler).  Career back up Matt Moore is leading the Dolphins at this point, don’t worry Dolphin fans you should have Ryan Tannehill ready to go next year, of course you may be without your defensive coordinator Vance Joseph by then.  The best news for the Patriots is that they have a bye week and then will face either the Texans or Raiders unless the Dolphins upset the Steelers, then they would get the Dolphins.  That’s called a win-win for the Pats.  The possible QBs the Patriots might face in their first playoff game this year are Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Matt McGloin, Connor Cook or Matt Moore…wow the AFC was crap this year.

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted because school is busy and the Iowa athletic department schedules crap everyday of November so I have to work at Parking a lot.  Yesterday was the now annual Black Friday football game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Nebraska Cornhuskers and it was the most satisfying and frustrating thing to watch.  Stick with me for a minute.  There are few Hawkeye victories as satisfying as beating the holy crap out of a ranked Nebraska team while simultaneously denying them a chance to win the Big Ten West and head to Indianapolis.  Yet watching Iowa absolutely roll the Huskers defense made me ask WHERE IN THE HELL HAS THIS OFFENSE BEEN ALL YEAR?

I said in my previous rant that LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley are the most talented running back duo Iowa has had in a decade and yesterday Daniels passed the 1000 yard mark on the season and Wadley needs about one good run in a bowl game to join him (he’s 34 yards shy at the moment).  Thanks for proving me right boys.  The Hawkeyes finally found an offensive line combination that works, especially in the run game, and yes it includes leaving Cole Croston on the bench.  LT Boone Myers, LG Keegan Render, C James Daniels, RG Sean Welsh and RT Ike Boettger finally have found a groove and they dominated all day long.  I couldn’t be happier for a Daniels as he’s a senior that stuck it out through a number of injuries that slowed him down year after year and it paid off with a heck of a final season.  Wadley looks like a star and he should be the focal point of the Hawkeye offense next year.  The Iowa offense had 3 plays of over 50 yards against Nebraska after only having 5 the entire rest of the year.  Wadley broke a 75 yard run for a TD, Daniels broke a long one and was tackled inside the ten but he came back two plays later to punch it in for a TD and Riley McCarron caught a 77-yarder for a TD.  Yep, my personal whipping boy McCarron made a huge play.  Do you want to know why?  Because for what seemed like the first time all season instead of handing the ball off on first down Iowa ran a play action pass and Beathard hit McCarron as he crossed over the middle.  Hey, what do you know, if you do something the other team isn’t expecting you might just make a play.  It also put McCarron in a position to do something he’s more comfortable with which is going over the middle.  McCarron isn’t a outside WR and his quickness is better utilized in the way this play is designed.  It helped a whole lot that Beathard put the ball right on the money and McCarron didn’t have to break stride to catch it and he outran the defense.

Iowa’s offensive line took over once the Hawkeyes had built a big lead with their big plays and Nebraska couldn’t seem to slow the Iowa run game.  Again I ask, Where was this offense before?  How did Kirk Ferentz, the offensive line guru, not see the offensive line combination early in the year wasn’t working?  I hear all the time that he’s the college football coach and he’s been doing it for years.  He’s the guy that watches practice everyday so he knows best.  Have you ever heard the phrase “he can’t see the forest through the trees”?  Maybe he’s been too close to it and has preconceived notions when he’s watching practice or game film instead of seeing it for what it was.  Stability in a coaching staff is nice but complacency is not.  I’ve been calling for Greg Davis’ dismissal for a while now and I’m going to double down and say WR coach Bobby Kennedy can take a hike with him.  Iowa’s WR corps has been terrible all year and whether that’s on the actual coaching or the recruiting at the position Kennedy should take the fall for both.  Let’s take a look at the WRs brought in since Kennedy took over the position.

Matt VandeBerg (once you see the rest of list you’ll see his progress as a WR is in spite of Kennedy not because of him).

Jay Scheel (injuries have hampered his development but I’m not sure that’s all that has hampered it)

Jerminic Smith (still young and progressing but he’s the 3rd and final guy to contribute at all)

Adrian Falconer (played a little in the last few games as a RS freshman, I still have hope)

Emmanuel Ogwo (left the team to run track full-time)

Jonathan Parker (moved from RB, really fast, hurt this year, apparently only knows one play in the playbook, has shown nothing as a WR)

Devonte Young (true freshman burned his redshirt year to play a few plays early)

AJ Jones, Andre Harris and Derrick Willies (were part of a 5 man WR class with Derrick Mitchell and Matt VandeBerg.  Jones left after year one, Harris didn’t contribute before leaving after year 3 and Willies had a falling out with the coaching staff after not playing, he had quite a bit of promise and could have really helped this team)

Derrick Mitchell (moved to RB and became a 3rd down specialist last year, hurt much of this year but he’s probably the second best WR on this team and he plays RB)

Ronald Nash (JUCO transfer that just isn’t quite good enough to compete in the Big Ten)

Damond Powell (JUCO transfer that supposedly couldn’t learn the playbook in two years on campus, I’m not sure how that’s possible, trust me it isn’t that complicated)

Ryan Boyle (switched over from QB at the end of spring practice and made a couple of plays in the spring game, because of those plays he looked like a star in comparison to the rest of the guys at WR, he never played a meaningful snap at WR this season)

Oh, what about Riley McCarron you ask (he is actually a fifth-year senior walk-on who pre-dates Kennedy and he’s the best we have right now with Vandeberg out so our best WR isn’t a Kennedy guy)

Just recently Iowa lost two of their three verbal commitments at WR for 2017 Gavin Holmes and Beau Corralles and Kennedy hasn’t been able to close the deal with hometown product Oliver Martin (he’s from Iowa City West).  It looks like there is going to be some big jobs changing over this year in college football and I can only hope some other coach comes calling for Kennedy, it won’t be based on his track record at Iowa but he’s been a WR coach a very long time.  I would really like Davis to retire and Kennedy gone and then promote Brian Ferentz to Offensive Coordinator, let him remain the offensive line coach, and hire a new QB coach (Davis doubles as OC and QB coach now) and find a new WR coach.  Sorry for that tangent but I just had to get that Kennedy rant off my chest.

We know Ferentz isn’t going anywhere since Gary Barta gave him his 10 year extension so my only hope is for some change in he staff to move things along.  I’m in on Brian Ferentz taking over as the OC because I’m not sure Kirk will listen to anyone else about being less predictable and Brian once coached under Bill Belichick so perhaps he picked up something.  There should be plenty of job openings in the state of Texas as Texas, Houston and Baylor are all looking at new staffs coming in with their new coaches, please let Kennedy return to the state and Davis too if he doesn’t want to retire.  Perhaps a new WR coach can get something out of Smith, Scheel, Young, Falconer, Parker, maybe Boyle and incoming freshman (fingers crossed he doesn’t de-commit) Brandon Smith.  Oh and maybe a new WR coach lands Oliver Martin.

8-4 isn’t a bad record and ending it by beating Michigan and Nebraska two of the last three weeks takes some of the sting out of it but it’s a bit of a letdown.  Coming off a Rose Bowl season with a senior QB and a two-headed RB monster in place should have gone better. Iowa never seems to do well when it has expectations so next year should be a good one but if Davis and Kennedy are still around my expectations won’t be much at all.  We are one game away from the end of the CJ Beathard Era and moving on to the Nathan Stanley era presumably, let’s give the kid the best chance at success.