Minnesota Vikings

You don’t generally find teams that won 13 games, won their division and made it to the conference championship game changing QBs but the Vikings made the biggest free agent splash of the off season by signing Kirk Cousins to replace Case Keenum.  Keenum had a great year but Cousins has been good for longer and has a more proven track record.  It says a lot about the QB market when Kirk Cousins sets the standard, clearly solid QBs rarely hit free agency until they are too old to matter.  Cousins should find the Vikings offensive weapons to his liking.  WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are a very good duo that complement each other well.  RB Dalvin Cook is returning from injury but he looked good last year before the injury.  They have a capable backup in Latavius Murray too.  TE Kyle Rudolph should see an uptick in his usage as Cousins was used to using Jordan Reed quite capably when he was in Washington.  The real concern on offense is the line.  The interior of the line is a work in progress at guard, and center Pat Elflein was great last year as a rookie but he is dealing with some ankle issues.  If either Rashod Hill or rookie OT Brian O’Neill can handle the RT spot they could move Mike Remmers to OG and that would help considerably.

While the offense is good this team is built on the strength of an outstanding defense.  The front four is led by DEs Everson Griffin and Danielle Hunter who put pressure on opposing QBs.  Free agent DT Sheldon Richardson should make for a tough pairing inside with Linval Joseph, they may not be flashy but they are tough.  LBs Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr are phenomenal three-down LBs and both are in the prime of their careers.  CB Xavier Rhodes proved to be one of the best in the game last season and his counterpart Trae Waynes finally found some consistency.  The ageless Terence Newman returns at nickel corner and he will have to fight off rookie first-rounder Mike Hughes and possibly Mackenzie Alexander.  FS Harrison Smith is legitimately one of the top safeties in the NFL and SS Andrew Sendejo is solid if unspectacular.

Mike Zimmer has built a heck of a defense but this year there are some changes coming to the offense.  Besides the major change at QB the team lost offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur as he took over as head coach of the Giants.  His replacement is former Eagles QB coach John DeFilippo.  He did a great job with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles last year but now it’s his offense to call so there could be some bumps in the road.  Relying on Dalvin Cook early may be the way to go.  The defense is just hitting its stride and it should give the Vikings a nice window to compete for a shot at the Super Bowl for a few more years.  I expect the Vikings to outpace the Packers by just a game or two given their superior defense.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers offense struggled last season when Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury.  I know, it’s shocking to think a team would miss arguably the best QB in the league.  Rodgers is a special talent but it wasn’t just his injury that hurt the offense.  They had injuries and inconsistency at RB and they had injuries along the offensive line so there was never much cohesion with that group.  Devante Adams was a bright spot as he produced even with the uneven QB play of Brett Hundley.  This year Rodgers will have to lean on Adams as his favorite WR Jordy Nelson was jettisoned for age and salary reasons.  The team did add the best TE Rodgers has ever played with in Jimmy Graham.  Graham may not be the guy he was in his heyday with the Saints but he’s still a weapon and Rodgers will enjoy having him.  Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones will battle it out for the RB job with Ty Montgomery hoping to make his case too.  The offensive line can be solid if they are healthy although their OG situation is still a little suspect.  LT David Bakhtiari and RT Bryan Bulaga are one of the better tandems in the league when they are both healthy.  The team goes as far as Rodgers can carry them and that could be quite a ways if everyone stays healthy.

After many years of Dom Capers running the defense he was let go and Mike Pettine was brought in.  He will continue the 3-4 look but perhaps he’ll have some new wrinkles.  This team’s defense has a lot of veterans like Mike Daniels, Nick Perry, Clay Matthews and newly signed free agent Muhammed Wilkerson up front while the secondary has some youngsters.  The team needs to strike while Matthews is still standing because he’s still the best pass rusher on the team.  As of now the team is counting on rookie Oren Burks to step in for the injured Jake Ryan at ILB and he’s looked pretty good in the preseason.  The team brought back Tramon Williams to mentor the young CBs.  Kevin King is second-year guys and he’ll team with rookies Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson to form what the team hopes is their nickel package for the foreseeable future.  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is entrenched at one safety spot while Josh Jones should be the other.

Mike McCarthy made a big move with Pettine replacing Capers and then tinkered with the rest of the defensive staff.  The offensive staff wasn’t so lucky.  Offensive coordinator Edgar Bennett and QB coach Alex Van Pelt were let go much to the chagrin of Aaron Rodgers.  However, Joe Philbin returned to take over as offensive coordinator, a position he had a few years ago before he left to coach the Dolphins.  The team named a run-game and a passing-game coordinator and Frank Cignetti Jr became the QB coach.  That’s a lot of new voices hoping to work together to get the offense on track.  I think this team has a run in them but they are just a little bit behind the Vikings at the moment but they are still ahead of the Bears and Lions.

Chicago Bears

The word of the day in Chicago is potential.  This team has loads of potential on offense especially.  They seem to have found the QB of the present and the future in Mitchell Trubisky.  He didn’t exactly light the world on fire with is 7 TDs and 7 INTs but a lot of his issues were because he wasn’t working with a great supporting cast.  The team decided to spend some money in free agency and picked up some help in the draft that they hope will help Trubisky take another step forward in his progress this season.  The Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, WR Taylor Gabriel, TE Trey Burton and drafted WR Anthony Miller and OG/C James Daniels in an effort to surround Trubisky with a better offense.  Adding this group to RBs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen and the Bears offense has tons of potential for this year.  Robinson is coming off a missed season with a knee injury but when he’s on he’s a legitimate #1 WR.  Gabriel gives them a nice speed threat.  Miller is a criminally underrated rookie WR, he’s going to be a playmaker.  Trey Burton gives them a legitimate pass catching threat at TE and a nice security blanket for Trubisky.  Daniels will solidify the interior of the line in front of Trubisky for many years to come.  Finally, Howard and Cohen are a deadly 1-2 punch at RB with various skills.

The Bears went 5-11 last year but it wasn’t because of the defense.  The team defense was top 10 versus both the run and the pass.  That’s why new head coach Matt Nagy kept defensive coordinator Vic Fangio around and the team looks to just make adjustments here and there.  Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Jonathan Bullard make for a solid line up front.  Hicks had a surprisingly good year last year.  The team needed some new blood at LB and they drafted Roquan Smith in the first round and he should line up inside next to Danny Trevathan.  Even his unexpected holdout won’t stop him when the season rolls around.  Smith will tackle everything in sight and if he doesn’t lead rookies in tackles I’ll be absolutely shocked.  The defense could really be something special if Leonard Floyd can stay healthy and actually become the pass rusher he has the talent to be.  The secondary is better than the sum of its parts.  Kyle Fuller finally played well and Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper held their own.  The safeties are solid but unspectacular.  Fangio gets more out of this unit than most probably could.

Matt Nagy is a young, offensive minded head coach who studied under Andy Reid for the last 10 years and he benefited from the Sean McVay effect.  McVay was the really young offensive coach who took over the Rams last year and took Jared Goff and the LA offense to a new level.  The Bears hope Nagy does the same for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.  Nagy proved to be quite smart as he convinced Vic Fangio to stick around and continue to run the defense (McVay hired wise sage Wade Phillips to run his defense).  Nagy also hired former Oregon coach Mark Helfrich to be his offensive coordinator and long-time offensive line coach Harry Heistand.  I like it when a new young head coach is smart enough to hire some veterans and isn’t afraid to have people around him that have their own ideas.  Nagy seems like the type of coach who will use his staff to best of their abilities, he probably learned that from Andy Reid.  I’m picking the Bears third in the division because they are just a bit young on offense yet to compete against Green Bay and Minnesota but I like their potential over Detroit.

Detroit Lions

The Lions’ passing attack was 6^th in the NFL while the running game ranked 32^nd, no real surprise this team was last in rushing yards per game.  This team has been a terrible running team since Barry Sanders retired (BTW that was 19 years ago, seriously it was 1999 look it up).  Matthew Stafford has been the offense since he arrived and while many people thought he’d tank when Calvin Johnson retired early a few years ago he’s just kept humming along.  It is time for them to get him some help.  The Lions signed RB LeGarrette Blount, drafted RB Kerryon Johnson and drafted OG/C Frank Ragnow to hopefully improve the running game.  Johnson is the best all-around running threat but he has some issues staying healthy so the team will use the two new RBs to keep both fresh.  Add in receiving threat Theo Riddick and things don’t look good for Ameer Abdullah.  The team relies entirely too much on WRs Golden Tate and Marvin Jones and could really use someone to step up behind them.  Kenny Golladay has potential.  They don’t have a real threat at TE with the talented but inconsistent Eric Ebron finally departing.  The offensive line should get a boost on the inside from Ragnow, he should bring a toughness and intensity they haven’t really had.

While the offense is trying to figure out how to be better balanced the defense is hoping new head coach Matt Patricia can work his Patriot magic.  The Patriots have always been good at making their defense better than the sum of its parts.  The Lions have some pieces like DE Ziggy Ansah (if his knee is healthy), DT A’Shawn Robinson (he’s a good interior presence), LB Jarrad Davis (had a solid rookie year) S Glover Quin (slightly underrated) and CB Darius Slay (one of the better corners in the league).  The rest of the defensive starters and the entire backup group leave plenty to be desired.  If Ansah isn’t healthy or is ineffective the team is in real trouble, no one else generates much of a pass rush.  Patricia has his work cut out for him and while this team could go 8-8 that might not get them better than last in the division and they certainly won’t challenge the Vikings or Packers at the top.

Patricia was wise enough to see the offense isn’t broken and he kept offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter.  There were some position coaches that changed but that should be for the better.  The defensive staff was overhauled and veteran coach Paul Pasqualoni is the new defensive coordinator.  Pasqualoni may have the coordinator title but make no mistake it’s Patricia’s defense.  He cut his teeth under Bill Belichick and that counts for something.  The Lions’ LB corps has been pretty bad for a while and I’m interested to see what Patricia can do to take Davis’ game to another level.  If he can get anything out of the rest of the group he’s a miracle worker.  He will love having Darius Slay at CB but can he turn Teez Tabor’s confidence into actual production opposite Slay? They need either Tabor or Nevin Lawson to actual step up to help Slay out.  This team won’t be an easy win for anyone but they have too many holes and are going to need some time to figure them out.

 

Defensive Line

Defensive End

Starters: Anthony Nelson – Jr, Parker Hesse – Sr

DE is the deepest and arguably the most talented position on the Hawkeyes this season (the safety group might argue with that assertion).  Anthony Nelson had a good year last year and looks to have an even better one this year.  He’s a long and lean end that can bend the edge and he could be a double-digit sack guy this season.  Nelson is a good NFL prospect and if he has a great year he could leave early for the draft.  Hesse is the lunch pail type of player.  He is hard-working, no frills guy.  He is the guy most likely to take over Josey Jewell’s role as the emotional leader of this defense.  Hesse won’t blow you away and he’s not going to put up eye-popping stats but he’s the rock of the defensive line.

Backups: AJ Epenesa – Soph, Sam Brincks – Senior

The backups at DE have taken two opposite paths to get here.  Epenesa was a 5-star recruit and earned playing time as a true freshman because he’s simply too talented to keep off the field.  If Anthony Nelson and Parker Hesse weren’t so consistently good Epenesa would be starting by now.  For now, he’s just an exceptional option as the third DE.  Brincks was a walk-on who worked hard, paid his dues, played both inside and outside on the line when the coaches asked and earned a scholarship the Iowa way.  He’s steady, not flashy and does the dirty work with no complaints. His ability to play both inside and out also makes him an important part of the rotation and that should continue this year.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Brandon Simon-Soph, Jack Kallenberger- Jr, John Waggoner-Fr

Brandon Simon is a third-year sophomore who has yet to break through and finds a pretty talented depth chart ahead of him.  Kallenberger is a walk-on who adds depth.  Waggoner was a top recruit and while he’s talented it would take a number of injuries for him to see serious playing time.  The 4-game redshirt rule might help him get some snaps in a major blowout game but he’s not seeing time in more than four games this year.  Chauncey Golston has earned a spot as the backup DT but he also brings versatility like Brincks so he will line up at DE from time to time.

Defensive Tackle

Starters: Matt Nelson – Sr, Cedrick Lattimore – Jr

Matt Nelson sat out spring practice with an injury so he’s working his way back but he’s still a starter and I wouldn’t expect that to change.  He will start as long as he’s healthy.  He’s a tall DT at 6’8 and he creates tough passing lanes in the middle of the field.  Lattimore played some last year and he should only get better with another year of physical maturity.  He has the talent and skill to really excel inside.  These guys get a little overshadowed by the stars at DE but they will do good work inside.

Backups: Chauncey Golston – Soph, Brady Reiff – Jr,

As I said before Golston brings versatility and while he’s still filling out his 6’5 frame he has earned the backup job inside and he should make for good depth.  Reiff is suspended for the first game of the year due to a public intoxication charge over the summer but once he’s back he should be a part of the DT rotation.  (BTW, google the story about him mistaking a police car for his Uber, at least he was trying not to drink and drive).

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Garret Jansen-Jr, Austin Schulte-Soph, Dallas Jacobus-Soph, Tyler Linderbaum-Fr, Noah Shannon-Fr, Daviyon Nixon-Soph

Garret Jansen is most likely the 5^th DT although Sam Brincks will slide inside from time to time.  Jansen is never going to be the biggest DT but he can play.  Dallas Jacobus was a walk-on who is listed as a backup in the two deeps during spring practice at one point (injuries certainly played a role in the depth chart during the spring). He was impressive enough to beat out Schulte in the spring, not sure if that’s good news for him or bad news for Schulte.  Schulte has had some injury issues so that contributed.  The bad news for the both of them is freshmen Linderbaum and Shannon are ready to compete if depth is needed beyond the top four DTs.  Shannon already has the size at 300 lbs. while Linderbaum could be quite disruptive as he grows into the position.  The Hawkeyes would love to have Nixon available but he’s a JUCO transfer from Iowa Western and he’ll redshirt this year in order to concentrate on academics.  If not, he would have definitely contributed.

Linebacker

Outside Linebacker

Starter: Nick Niemann – Soph

The Hawkeyes are replacing all three starting LBs from last year’s team and this seems to be the simplest replacement.  Nick Niemann is slated to replace his brother Ben at OLB for the Hawkeyes.  He’s only a sophomore but it looks like he’s the one guy that took a position and owned it and his competition isn’t all that close.  If he can come close to matching his brother’s production the position will be in good hands.  Ben was a reliable and underrated player now it’s Nick’s turn.

Backup: Barrington Wade – Soph

While the LB position lost a lot of experience there are a lot of players on the roster and many of them were vying for a spot somewhere in the two deeps.  Wade stood out enough during spring practice to earn the backup spot behind Niemann.  He’ll have to continue to work to hold off his competition but he’s a talented player so I expect him to do so.

Middle Linebacker

Starter: Amani Jones – Jr

Jones was originally slated to line up at weakside LB but given the fact that no one had any real experience at any of the LB positions a lot of guys got chances to show what they could do at multiple positions.  By the end of spring ball Jones had laid claim to the MLB job.  He’s a fierce hitter and it will be his job to communicate with the entire defense.  Jones is stepping in to fill some major Josey Jewell sized shoes but he’s earned the opportunity.  I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do and I have high expectations for Jones moving forward.

Backup: Jack Hockaday – Sr

Hockaday spent part of last season as Jewell’s backup until he got hurt.  He was passed up by Jones during spring and for now he brings nice depth and could be used in multiple positions.  His experience and cross training at multiple positions could make him the fourth LB regardless of position.

Weakside Linebacker

Starter: Kristian Welch – Jr

Welch started the spring at middle linebacker but after Aaron Mends went down with a torn ACL and Amani Jones asserted himself in the middle Welch moved to the weakside.  He is tall and rangy and his athleticism should play well at the position.  He’s been waiting his turn and it’s his time now.  It’s unfortunate that Mends tore his ACL when he was just about to get his chance as a senior but Welch will take advantage.  This is the one starting LB position that isn’t completely set just yet.  Mends went down late in the spring so Welch didn’t really have the opportunity to claim the position but I suspect he will do so in training camp.

Backup: Djimon Colbert – RS Fr

Colbert was originally recruited as a safety but he immediately moved to LB when he arrived on campus.  He is still growing into his LB body but the hope is that he maintains his speed and athleticism.  The Hawkeyes are looking to utilize speed at the LB spot more as Phil Parker uses sub-packages more when lining up against multi-WR looks.  Colbert can be this type of LB/S hybrid that plays well in these packages.  Unless Welch completely dominates in camp I would expect we see Colbert get some playing time this season.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Dillon Doyle-Fr, Jayden McDonald-Fr, Seth Benson-Fr, Logan Klemp-Fr

Dillon Doyle competed in spring practice and that should give him a leg up on the other true freshman.  He is likely the #3 MLB at best but he could be a threat to play some special teams.  Jayden McDonald is a fast, athletic LB that is definitely in the new mold the Hawkeyes are looking for so while I expect him to redshirt he might get some special teams and mop-up duty in less than four games in order to get him some experience and preserve his redshirt.  Benson and Klemp are likely to redshirt just to grow into themselves and because they are not likely to be needed.  The late summer losses of Kyle Taylor and Nate Wieland means the true freshmen will get a shot at special teams.

Cornerbacks

Starters: Matt Hankins – Soph, Michael Ojemudia – Jr

Replacing the three starting LBs seems to be getting more headlines than replacing Josh Jackson at CB but I think this is a pretty interesting position to look at for the Hawkeyes.  Matt Hankins stepped in as a freshman towards the end of last season when Manny Rugamba (recently departed from the program) and Michael Ojemudia were not stepping up opposite Jackson.  Hankins has a chance to be the next great Iowa CB, he has the talent but he’s unproven.  With Rugamba gone it’s Ojemudia’s job to lose.  There are a couple of redshirt freshmen and likely true freshmen coming for Ojemudia’s spot.  Neither of these guys can relax because while the depth is inexperienced it is talented and Phil Parker won’t hesitate to use freshmen if they prove to be better.

Backups:  Trey Creamer – RS Fr, Josh Turner – RS Fr

Creamer and Turner came in with Hankins in last year’s recruiting class but they redshirted because of Iowa’s depth at CB.  Now both of them are in the two deeps and if Ojemudia is inconsistent he very well could lose the starting job to one of them. Creamer seems to be slightly ahead of Turner and I can only say that because when Rugamba was still on the depth chart Creamer was listed as a backup but Turner wasn’t, once Rugamba left Turner moved up.  Both guys bring talent and athleticism to the position.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: DJ Johnson – Fr, Julius Brents – Fr, Terry Roberts – Fr

The rest of the depth chart is made up of true freshmen.  Considering three of the top four are 2^nd year players this position group is quite young.  The good news is they are all talented and coached by Phil Parker.  Johnson might be the most likely to see early playing time but all three of these guys may be called upon.  I’m listing Brents as a CB here even though he may eventually end up at safety, I’m doing that because there is an easier path to playing time at CB than there is at safety.  Brents is a talented athlete that might be too good to keep off the field.  Roberts is the less talked about player but that isn’t going to stop Phil Parker from playing him if he earns a chance.

Strong Safety

Starter: Amani Hooker – Jr

Hooker finally broke through last year after Brandon Snyder went down with a torn ACL and Miles Taylor was simply ineffective.  His breakthrough moment happened in the Ohio St. game but he played very well most of the time he was in.  He’s a playmaker and extremely versatile.  Phil Parker has talked about him lining up as a LB and he can also cover the slot.  He’s my choice as breakout player of the Iowa defense and the “best defensive back” baton has been passed from Desmond King to Josh Jackson the last two years and now it’s Hooker’s turn to take the title.

Backup: Geno Stone – Soph

Stone was a true freshman last year who played some special teams and by the end of the year he was playing on defense.  He has the type of athleticism, instincts and toughness that makes a good Iowa safety.  He would get caught out of position a little last year but that happens to true freshman from time to time.  He’s going to be a good one moving forward.

Free Safety

Starter/Backup: Brandon Snyder – Sr, Jake Gervase – Sr

At the moment these two seniors are listed as co-starters. Snyder is coming back from re-injuring his knee last year after he came back really quickly from his torn ACL the preceding spring.  Gervase stepped in and at first, he looked like a deer in headlights.  He struggled along with Miles Taylor and then Snyder returned for a minute and got hurt again.  Once Amani Hooker stepped in for Taylor and Gervase came back in for Snyder he played a lot better.  These are two pretty experienced players on the back end of the Iowa defense.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Dallas Craddieth – Fr, Kaevon Merriweather – Fr, Jaden Snyder – Fr, Riley Moss-Fr (potentially)

Hooker, Stone, Snyder and Gervase offer four talented safeties and plenty of versatility so the odds of someone else playing much is pretty low hence the reason I listed Julius Brents at CB.  Craddieth and Merriweather are two athletic guys that could bring something on special teams if the coaches deem it necessary and they may want to get them some playing time since Brandon Snyder and Gervase are both seniors.  Jaden Snyder is Brandon’s brother and as of right now he’s a walk-on but something tells me he’s going to eventually be one of those guys that earns a scholarship.  Riley Moss is a guy that was going to come in and not be on scholarship this year (it’s a weird eligibility thing called a blueshirt) and while I haven’t heard differently there are some scholarships available now.  Manny Rugamba, Nate Wieland, Spencer Williams (medical waiver), Kyle Taylor, Toks Akinribade (medical waiver), and Cam Harrell all left the program over the summer for various reasons that could mean the Hawkeyes bring in Moss now instead of later.

Overall Analysis

The Iowa defense is built upon the strength of the defensive line.  The talent and depth are exceptional.  Anthony Nelson, Parker Hesse, Matt Nelson, Cedrick Lattimore, AJ Epenesa, Sam Brincks, Chauncey Golston and Brady Reiff make up the deepest defensive line I think Kirk Ferentz has ever had in his 20 years.  That’s good because there isn’t a lot of experience behind them, talent yes, experience not so much.  The LBs don’t have a single start among them but I actually worry less about them than the secondary. While they haven’t started any games, they have been on campus for multiple years and have practiced and learned from Josey Jewell, Ben Niemann and Bo Bower.  The secondary has one junior, Michael Ojemudia, who hasn’t been the picture of consistency.  A sophomore with a couple of starts under his belt, Matt Hankins.  And a bunch of redshirt and true freshmen.  Phil Parker has always been good at getting young guys ready to contribute early, just look at Hankins last year.  However, it’s usually finding one youngster to play with some older guys, this year he’s going to need multiple youngsters to heavily contribute at CB.  I think he’ll use his depth and experience at safety to cover up the lack of experience at CB.  Hooker can play the slot and be all over the field and Snyder can play all over too.  I think Jones, Niemann and Welch are good LBs who only need a chance to play to really shine.  The competition at LB and CB should help push the starters to earn their spots every week.  No one at LB or CB has earned the benefit of the doubt and if someone is struggling they could lose their starting job.  Training camp should be quite competitive on the defensive side of the ball, even the defensive line starters have healthy competition pushing them to be better.  This has a chance to be one of the most athletic defenses Kirk Ferentz has had at Iowa and I hope Phil Parker follows through on using sub-packages a little more against pass happy offenses.

 

 

 

 

Quarterbacks

Starter:  Nate Stanley – Jr

As a true sophomore last season Stanley threw for 26 TDs and only 6 INTs, that’s a pretty good first year as a starter.  He had two 5 TD games including his masterpiece against Ohio St.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is he had 10 TDs in two games and only 16 in the other 11.  That was the inconsistency of the offense and that is something that must be corrected by offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz and Stanley this year.  Iowa’s offense is always built on the strong offensive line and the running game but having Stanley take another step forward in his development will make the offense dangerous.  The fact that even in an inconsistent year the one thing he did very consistently was hold on to the ball is really good news. Six INTs is a remarkable stat for a first year starter and not turning the ball over is paramount in the Iowa offense.  I expect Stanley to have an even better season as WRs Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith mature into bigger roles and Nick Easley, Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson provide consistent production in the passing game.  If he makes enough of a jump he could place himself among the top prospects for the NFL at QB given his size and arm strength.

Backups:  Peyton Mansell – RS Fr             Spencer Petras – Fr

The QB battle to watch is for the backup spot as Stanley is unquestionably the starter.  The Hawkeyes lost both Tyler Wiegers and Ryan Boyle to transfer leaving them with only three scholarship QBs.  Mansell is a redshirt freshman and for now his limited practice experience may be giving him an edge for the backup spot going into fall camp.  That edge may not last long as Petras was an early enrollee freshman and looked pretty good in spring practice.  Petras is more in the mold of Stanley as a big, strong-armed QB while Mansell is slightly smaller and more athletic.  This competition is likely to go deep into fall camp as Ferentz doesn’t really have to name a backup until they release the depth chart for the first game of the year and even then, he doesn’t really have to make a choice he could list both players behind Stanley.  The new redshirt rules instituted by the NCAA this year also allow a player to play in 4 games in a season and still use a redshirt, that bodes well for Petras as he could get some playing time and not lose a year of eligibility.

The other QB on the roster is walk-on Ryan Schmidt, a big 6’5 junior from Linn-Mar.  There isn’t a lot of depth on the roster, if there are injuries things could get dicey.

Running Back

Starter: Toren Young – Soph

At 5’11 221 lbs. Young will be a stark contrast to Akrum Wadley but he’s certainly in the mold of other successful Hawkeye backs like LeShun Daniels, Marcus Coker and dare I say Shonn Greene.  Young isn’t fancy and that works just fine in the Iowa offense.  Behind a big, powerful offensive line Young’s power will be utilized to its fullest extent.  He had a pretty good year last season considering Wadley and James Butler took most of the carries.  I really thought when Butler was injured for a bit last season that the coaches missed an opportunity to use Young even more as they mostly relied on Wadley.  I like Young’s no-nonsense style and I think he’s going to have a fantastic year.

Backup: Ivory Kelly-Martin – Soph

Young won’t have to carry the load alone.  Kelly-Martin proved to be a pretty solid back last season in very limited action. He is a more natural pass catcher than Young, although Young showed some talent in this area during the spring too.  Kelly-Martin isn’t the power back Young is but at 5’11 200 lbs. he’s no slouch either, he can hold his own between the tackles.  It’s always nice when the Hawkeyes have two backs that are able to play on any down and excel.  Kelly-Martin has more homerun ability than Young and hopefully he’ll take advantage of all the opportunities he gets.

Beyond the Two-Deeps:  Mekhi Sargent-Soph, Kyshaun Bryan-RS Fr, Henry Geil-Fr, Samson Evans-Fr

The Hawkeyes went through spring practice with only Bryan and Cam Harrell backing up Young and Kelly-Martin and that was after moving Harrell over from defensive back (he has since left the program) Bryan isn’t bad and he brings good size to the position but he hasn’t really stood out so far.  To say they needed some help is an understatement.  Enter JUCO RB Mekhi Sargent.  Sargent was a late add this summer as a transfer from Iowa Western with three years of eligibility remaining.  He was very good last season and he adds a different dimension as a 5’8 190 lbs. back who is more in the mold of Akrum Wadley.  His year of starting at Iowa Western also gives him some experience that Bryan doesn’t have.  If I were to venture a guess I would also say true freshman Henry Geil has a chance to move ahead of Bryan too.  He’s already built for Big Ten football at 6’1 215 lbs. and I think his talent will shine through.  With the new 4 game redshirt rule I think it’s possible Geil gets used at some point.  Samson Evans wasn’t a RB in high school and there’s a chance his move to RB isn’t permanent.  He’s a good athlete that could be used at another position if he finds a better fit where he can contribute sooner.

Fullback

Starter: Brady Ross – Jr

Backup: Austin Kelly – Sr

The Hawkeyes are likely to employ their two TE sets more and use a FB less but it is not an unimportant position for the Hawkeyes.  Ross and Kelly are similarly built players that will be used to clear a path for Young and Kelly-Martin in short yardage and both can do it well.  Ross is a bowling ball and every once in a while, he’ll fake a block, slip past his man and make a catch out of the backfield.  Luckily, Iowa fans know how to appreciate a good screen pass to a FB and Ross will make some yardage after the catch by knocking down some defenders.  The FB is a dying breed in college football but Iowa still has their mold and they just keep cranking them out.  Iowa coaches and fans still appreciate the value of a good FB.

Wide Receiver

Starters: Nick Easley – Sr, Brandon Smith – Soph

WR is a position looking for some consistency this year.  Last season Nick Easley proved to be one of Nate Stanley’s favorite targets.  Easley isn’t a game breaker but he does get open, he proved to be reliable in being where he needed to be and he knew how to move the chains.  He is likely to continue as a security blanket for Stanley and he’s likely to lead the Hawkeyes in catches this season.  Brandon Smith was just a true freshman last year and while he didn’t burst onto the scene like fellow freshman Ihmir Smith-Marsette he steadily got more and more playing time as the season went on last year.  This spring Smith seemed to take a step in his development and now he looks to become a more prominent piece of the offense as an outside receiving threat.  He has the size and speed to be a playmaker for Stanley and will hopefully take some of the pressure off of TE Noah Fant as a big play threat.  Smith is my pick for breakout offensive player for the Hawkeyes.

Backups:  Ihmir Smith-Marsette – Soph, Kyle Groeneweg – Sr

Smith-Marsette (aka ISM) burst onto the scene last year as a big play WR for the Hawkeyes and while he provided some spark for the offense it was fairly sporadic.  He has the ability to take any play the distance whenever he touches the ball but there were too many times last season where he disappeared during long stretches.  Some of that was the offense’s inconsistency and some of it was his.  If you pay attention to Kirk Ferentz’s comments about ISM needing to put down his cell phone and couple that with the fact that he isn’t listed as a starter it’s fairly clear that the coaching staff wants to see more out of him.  It’s not an issue of talent for ISM it’s about focusing on his craft.  Now a guy that seems to have put in the work is senior Kyle Groeneweg.  He transferred from the University of Sioux Falls and sat out last season.  He has worked his way up the depth chart and now he’s a backup.  He isn’t going to wow you with his physical size but apparently, he’s one of the fastest guys on the team.  If he can consistently get open he could become a big part of the offense as Stanley looks for guys to make plays.  He excelled at special teams previously so he should add value there.  It would be great to see an Iowa kid (he’s from Inwood, IA) transfer in from a small school and make an impact as a senior.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Max Cooper-Soph, Dominique Dafney-Jr, Devonte Young-Jr, Henry Marchese-RS Fr, Nico Ragaini-Fr, Calvin Lockett-Fr, Tyrone Tracy Jr.-Fr

Outside of Nick Easley you can’t call anyone playing WR at Iowa “proven”.  Smith and Smith-Marsette showed flashes last year but they both still have a lot to prove.  Groeneweg has plenty of playing time just at a much lower level.  However, compared to the rest of the depth chart those four are seasoned veterans.  Who emerges from this group is anyone’s guess.  Max Cooper, Devonte Young and Dominique Dafney all played last year but their only contributions were on special teams.  No one from this group has a career catch.  Cooper was another true freshman that saw the field last season even though he didn’t contribute on offense he might have the inside track on being the fifth WR for now.  If Ragaini, Lockett or Tracy can pick up the offense I see no reason why they can’t find some playing time.  Tracy looks like the type of playmaker Iowa could really use if they come up with some ways to get the ball in his hands.  ISM proved last season that the Hawkeyes aren’t afraid to play a true freshman early if he proves worthy, Tracy could be an electrifying playmaker.  This is a make-or-break year for Devonte Young, he is a junior who has yet to make an impact and he’s been passed by true freshmen and transfers that haven’t been on the roster as long as he has.  He is the last of the Bobby Kennedy recruited WRs and those guys didn’t have a very good track record at Iowa.  Dafney is also a junior but he’s a walk-on who is a contributor on special teams and anything he brings at WR is just icing on the cake. Henry Marchese redshirted last season and he brings good size to the position and could make a move up the depth chart.

Tight End

Starters: Noah Fant – Jr, TJ Hockenson – Soph

Fant is no longer a secret weapon as he has been named to multiple pre-season All-American teams.  His 11 TDs last season caught everyone’s attention and he’s going to get every defensive coordinator’s attention all season long.  When Stanley needs a play, he looks to Fant and he usually makes the play.  Fant is big, strong and fast and he’s a top NFL prospect, enjoy him this season because he’ll be playing on Sundays in 2019.  The good news is Fant isn’t Iowa’s only playmaking TE.  TJ Hockenson had a pretty good year last year and could really break out this season with teams focusing on stopping Fant.  He is probably still physically maturing into the position but he looks ready to round out his game and really complement Fant and give Stanley a deadly two TE set.  Truth be told, Hockenson is a pretty good TE prospect himself and if he wasn’t so overshadowed by Fant more people might notice, his turn will come he may just have to wait another year.   In the meantime, he can be the silent assassin.

Backup: Shaun Beyer – Soph, Nate Wieting – Jr

Only the Iowa Hawkeyes can list two FBs and four TEs in their two deeps and get away with it (yes, they list 12 starting spots instead of 11).  Beyer didn’t play much last year as a redshirt freshman but he’s starting to look the part.  He started his Hawkeye career at WR even though everyone knew he would grow into a TE.  He’s taking a little bit longer than Hockenson to grow into the TE position but it looks like it’s going to pay off.  Wieting has been a walk-on getting playing time for the past couple of years.  He’s not flashy and he isn’t lighting up the stat sheet but he’s steady and reliable and he does his job.  That’s pretty much the definition of the perfect backup TE.  With a number of scholarships opening up late in the summer I would guess Wieting would be at the top of the list of walk-on  to earn one.

Beyond the Two-Deeps:  Drew Cook-Jr, Nate Vejvoda-Jr, Tommy Kujawa-RS Fr, Bryce Schulte-RS Fr, Ben Subbert-Fr

The top four guys are going to dominate the playing time which is good because the depth beyond the top four is suspect.  Drew Cook moved to TE last year from QB and so far, he hasn’t distinguished himself.  It’s still early in his TE development but he’s going into his junior year so he doesn’t have a lot of time.  Vejvoda has been a TE his entire career and hasn’t moved up the depth chart at all so that doesn’t bode well for his future playing time.  The Hawkeyes had Jacob Coons as a freshman last year but he gave up football in the spring.  Kujawa, Schulte and Subbert are all walk-ons.  Subbert is a true freshman that definitely has some potential down the line.

Offensive Line

Tackle

Starters:  LT- Alaric Jackson – Soph, RT-Tristan Wirfs – Soph

Last year the Hawkeyes were supposed to have two senior starting OTs in Boone Myers and Ike Boettger but injuries left them with two freshmen starters, one redshirt (Jackson) and one true (Wirfs).  Those two more than held their own and it could pay huge dividends this season.  Jackson started all year except for the bowl game (disciple issue) at LT while Wirfs took over RT about half way through the year and then played LT in the bowl game.  There has been some question which one would start where this season but Jackson’s more comfortable on the left side so the coaches seem likely to stick with him there and Wirfs on the right side.  Wirfs might be the better athlete and could certainly handle LT but Jackson was no slouch there last year.  These two offer a very talented set of bookend OTs for the offense and should only get better with experience.

Backups: Mark Kallenberger – RS Fr, Dalton Ferguson – Sr

The Hawkeyes are not exactly stacked at OT after Jackson and Wirfs.  Mark Kallenberger looks like the 3^rd OT but he’s still a bit light as he only weighs in at about 285 lbs. He has the athleticism to play OT and he’s a talented guy he just needs to grow a little more.  Ferguson is listed as the other backup at the position coming out of spring ball but he’s battled injuries the last few seasons and it’s tough to count on him being healthy.  Levi Paulsen is likely the next man in if there is an injury, he started at RT in the Pinstripe Bowl last year when Jackson was suspended and Wirfs moved over to LT.  Paulsen is fighting for a starting job at RG this season but he can hold his own at RT if need be.

Guard

Starters: Ross Reynolds – Sr, Cole Banwart – Soph

Reynolds is a senior who has just kept plugging away and looks to finally be stepping into a starting role.  He’s not flashy but he’s tough and steady and should hold down the LG spot just fine.  Cole Banwart starts fall camp ahead of Levi Paulsen but that battle may not be over.  Paulsen started at RT last year in the bowl game but he’s probably better suited on the inside.  Banwart has impressed the coaches since bowl prep last season and while he’ll still have to fight for this starting position he’s also probably the main backup at center even though he’s not listed there.  It is possible Reynolds and/or Banwart get beat out but for now they are the starting guards.

Backups: Coy Kirkpatrick – RS Fr, Levi Paulsen – Jr

While Reynolds and Banwart are the favorites to be the starters for now they are only penciled in, that is equally true for the backups.  It probably bodes well for Kirkpatrick that he’s listed as a backup at OG and he’s only a redshirt freshman, it probably isn’t saying much for the other guys.  Levi Paulsen may not be a starter right now but I would guess he plays at some point this season.  Both he and his brother have fought injury issues at times and sometimes that has let other move ahead of them.

Center

Starter: Keegan Render – Sr

The loss of James Daniels early to the NFL draft created a pretty significant hole in the middle of the offensive line.  Keegan Render played the position for the first game last season while Daniels sat out so at least he has that going for him.  Render has plenty of experience at guard and he’s played both right and left during his career so he should have a solid understanding of playing center in the Iowa offense and making the line calls.  He isn’t going to be Daniels in the pivot but he’ll hold his own just fine.

Backup: Levi Duwa – RS Fr

Duwa came to Iowa as a defensive lineman but during last season he moved over and starting working at center.  Unfortunately, he dealt with an injury at the end of the season that may have set his development back a bit.  The coaches see something in him that made them move him from defense to offense so that’s a good sign. The reality is that if something happens to Keegan Render it is more likely Cole Banwart slides over from his potential starting OG position to take over and one of the Paulsen’s steps in at OG.

Beyond the Two-Deeps: Jake Newborg-Jr, Landan Paulsen – Jr, Cody Ince-Fr, Jeff Jenkins-Fr, Jack Plumb-Fr

Newborg just moved back to the offensive line after starting his career there and then moving to the defensive line for a while.  Between his position shifting and some injuries he’s never really gotten on track.  Landan Paulsen has been thwarted by a number of injuries too and hasn’t had much of a chance to prove himself.  This could be a make-or-break year for him.  Spencer Williams was a late summer departure from the roster due to concussions (he is ending his football career) so that hurts the interior competition a little bit.  Ince, Jenkins and Plumb are all true freshmen that should redshirt in order to mature physically and they should all contribute in the future.  The inside of the line is unsettled and its possible backup OT Mark Kallenberger gets a shot at OG if he proves too good to leave on the sidelines.

Overall Analysis

In Kirk Ferentz’s 20 years as Iowa head coach you can pretty much count on him basing the offense around a tough offensive line and the running game (okay, there was that one year where all the RBs got hurt and Drew Tate was the offense but that was the exception).  Even with an impressive returning starting QB and a new RB Ferentz isn’t likely to change his philosophy.  That said, having Nate Stanley under center and Brian Ferentz calling the plays perhaps the Hawkeyes are a little more creative in the passing attack.  Two TE sets are going to be quite common and while most people won’t find that all that exciting, when your two TEs are Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson there could be some fireworks.  Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith should take a step forward in their progress and that will help considerably.  I think Brandon Smith is the breakout player of the offense this season but I also think Toren Young will open some eyes at RB.  I like Ivory Kelly-Martin just fine but I think Iowa’s offense is better with the bigger power back hammering away at defenses early and pulling up the safeties to allow the receivers to get behind them.  Iowa is never going to be the Air Raid offense as long as a Ferentz is calling the shots but they did use some gadget plays last year with ISM and here’s hoping they find a way to get Tyrone Tracy, Jr. involved in the offense.  The interior of the offensive line is a work in progress but with Jackson and Wirfs manning the edges I think the line will be just fine.  Brian Ferentz’s first year as offensive coordinator had its ups and downs but I think there is reason for optimism.  Oh and if Brandon Smith is the breakout player of the offense it will only be because Stanley has an excellent season, something else I expect to happen.

 

 

 

Atlanta Falcons

• Calvin Ridley (26^th, 1^st)   WR   Alabama
• Isaiah Oliver (58^th, 2^nd)   CB   Colorado
• Deadrin Senat (90^th, 3^rd)   DT   South Florida
• Ito Smith (126^th, 4^th)   RB   Southern Miss
• Russell Gage (194^th, 6^th)   WR   LSU
• Foye Oluokun (200^th, 6^th)   LB   Yale

Immediate Impact:  WR Calvin Ridley, DT Deadrin Senat

The Falcons have Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu but after that they are pretty thin at WR.  Justin Hardy hasn’t been great so Ridley has a chance to play here.  They run plenty of three receiver sets and Sanu works well in the slot, that leaves Ridley a chance to excel on the outside.  Senat may have only been a 3^rd round pick but with the departure of Dontari Poe they need some help inside and Senat can be a rotational guy right away.

Best Value:  CB Isaiah Oliver

They have 3 good CBs in Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford and Brian Poole but Oliver was simply too good to pass up.  He has first round ability and he brings good size at 6’1.  In a division that has receivers like Mike Evans and Michael Thomas and QBs like Brees, Newton and Jameis Winston you can never have too many good CBs.

Sleeper:  RB Ito Smith

The Falcons would seem to be set with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but they are surprisingly thin beyond those two.  They probably can’t afford to keep both and they already paid Freeman so Coleman may be looking to move on to a bigger pay day.  Smith is a smaller back who excels in the screen game, he should be perfect for the Falcons offense.

Overall Analysis

A small draft class with just six guys yet the Falcons seemed to do a nice job with the guys they got.  The top four picks should all contribute and the last two have chance to fill specific needs and they fit the Falcons profile.  WR Russell Gage is a small guy that can be a gadget player and just be deployed for certain packages, if he makes the roster. LB Foye Oluokun is an undersized LB whose best asset is his speed, that sounds like most of the rest of the LBs on the team.

Carolina Panthers

• DJ Moore (24^th, 1^st)   WR   Maryland
• Donte Jackson (55^th, 2^nd)   CB   LSU
• Rashaan Gaulden (85^th, 3^rd)   S   Tennessee
• Ian Thomas (101^st, 4^th)   TE   Indiana
• Marquis Haynes (136^th, 4^th)   OLB   Mississippi
• Jermaine Carter (161^st, 5^th)   LB   Maryland
• Andre Smith (234^th, 7^th)   LB   North Carolina
• Kendrick Norton (242^nd, 7^th)   DT   Miami

Immediate Impact:  WR DJ Moore

Last year when the Panthers traded Kelvin Benjamin the rationale was that he and Devin Funchess were too similar and the team needed to get a WR with deep speed to push the defense down the field.  They signed Torrey Smith to do this but I think Moore will prove to be an even better option.  Moore played with some really poor QB play at Maryland so he should be thrilled to play with Cam Newton.

Best Value:  TE Ian Thomas

The Panthers still have Greg Olsen and he is a Cam Newton favorite but Olsen is 33 and the team doesn’t have anything at the position behind him.  Thomas still has some work to do but he’s a talented player who will be a very good TE2 for now and can be a starter very soon.  He will also benefit from playing with a better QB than he did in college.

Sleeper: S Rashaan Gaulden

Gaulden had some injury issues in college and Tennessee players seem to do better in the pros than they did in college.  The Panthers secondary is below average and their safety duo is even worse.  Mike Adams is 37 and Da’Norris Searcy is just a guy.  If Gaulden can stay healthy the safety depth chart has room for him to move.

Overall Analysis

The Panthers only spent two picks on offense but Moore and Thomas should give Cam Newton some weapons to go along with Funchess, Christian McCaffrey and Torrey Smith.  They spent the rest of their picks on defense and both S Gaulden and CB Donte Jackson will be counted on early.  Jackson is fast but has a slight build.  They will need him to at least step up and be a nickel corner early.  OLB Marquise Haynes is an undersized pass rusher while DT Kendrick Norton is a big interior player who will back up Dontari Poe and Kawann Short.  LBs Jermaine Carter and Andre Smith are unlikely to make a major impact but with Thomas Davis suspended for the first four games of the year they have a chance to stick around for a while.

New Orleans Saints

• Marcus Davenport (14^th, 1^st)   DE   UT-San Antonio
• Tre’Quan Smith (91^st, 3^rd)   WR   Central Florida
• Rick Leonard (127^th, 4^th)   OT   Florida St.
• Natrell Jamerson (164^th, 5^th)   S   Wisconsin
• Kamrin Moore (189^th, 6^th)   CB   Boston College
• Boston Scott (201^st, 6^th)   RB   Louisiana Tech
• Will Clapp (245^th, 7^th)   C   LSU

Immediate Impact:  DE Marcus Davenport

The Saints better hope Davenport pays immediate dividends because they gave up their first-round pick next year to secure him.  With DE Alex Okafor coming back from an Achilles injury Davenport may be needed too.  He’s a fantastic athlete that could use some refinement and he would do well to learn from Cameron Jordan, the Saints best DE.

Best Value:  None

The Saints paid a heavy price to move up to get Davenport and they didn’t exactly steal anyone later in the draft.

Sleeper: C Will Clapp

Clapp isn’t going to win any athletic competitions but he’s a technician and with Max Unger being 32 and the team not having any depth behind him Clapp will easily be the backup.  He played at LSU so he should be ready for this level of competition.

Overall Analysis

This draft will be judged by whether or not Davenport becomes a difference maker.  The team has been looking for someone to play opposite Cameron Jordan and they had someone until Okafor got hurt.  Davenport should bring some pressure from the opposite side and help free up Jordan.  WR Tre’Quan Smith might be a nice prospect down the line but with Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, Cameron Meredith and Brandon Coleman ahead of him he might find playing time hard to find.  OT Rick Leonard is a developmental prospect that was taken too early, he’ll struggle if he plays.  S Natrell Jamerson and CB Kamrin Moore are added to a secondary that was actually pretty good last year, they will need to contribute on special teams to be worthwhile.  RB Boston Scott didn’t look like he would be needed but now Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four games so he might be needed behind Alvin Kamara.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Vita Vea (12^th, 1^st)   DT   Washington
• Ronald Jones (38^th, 2^nd)   RB   USC
• MJ Stewart (53^rd, 2^nd)   CB   North Carolina
• Carlton Davis (63^rd, 2^nd)   CB   Auburn
• Alex Cappa (94^th, 3^rd)   OG   Humboldt St.
• Jordan Whitehead (117^th, 4^th)   S   Pittsburgh
• Justin Watson (144^th, 5^th)   WR   Pennsylvania
• Jack Cichy (202^nd, 6^th)   LB   Wisconsin

Immediate Impact:  DT Vita Vea, RB Ronald Jones

The Buccaneers defense left a lot to be desired and the line was especially pedestrian.  They added DE Jason Pierre-Paul in a trade and Vinny Curry in free agency, now comes Vea to line up inside next to All-Pro Gerald McCoy.  That is how you make a weakness a major strength.  Vea is a great complement to McCoy because he’s huge and can anchor down and let McCoy collapse the pocket.  The team let go of Doug Martin and they needed a RB and they got Jones who has starter ability.  Jones should take over as the starter pretty quickly.

Best Value:  CB Carlton Davis

Davis was a potential first-round pick and they got him 63^rd overall.  I like Davis a little more than MJ Stewart because he has good size and this team needs size in the secondary at CB because they face Julio Jones and Michael Thomas four times a year.

Sleeper:  LB Jack Cichy

Cichy was injured last year otherwise he probably wouldn’t have been available in round 7.  He’s a tackling machine when healthy and while the team is pretty good at LB with Lavonte David, Kwon Alexander and Kendall Beckwith, they need some depth and Cichy should help.  He could eventually replace David if he ever slows down.

Overall Analysis

Vea and Jones are high level players that should be starters immediately.  The two CBs they took, MJ Stewart and Davis, were need picks.  Brent Grimes is 36 years old and Vernon Hargreaves hasn’t lived up to his draft position.  Cappa, Whitehead and Watson are developmental guys that might struggle to make the team.  Cichy will make it as a special team’s demon as long as he’s healthy.

 

Houston Texans

• Justin Reid (68^th, 4^th)   S   Stanford
• Martinas Rankin (80^th, 3^rd)   OL   Mississippi
• Jordan Akins (98^th, 3^rd)   TE   Central Florida
• Keke Coutee (103^rd, 4^th)   WR   Texas Tech
• Duke Ejiofor (177^th, 6^th)   DE   Wake Forest
• Jordan Thomas (211^th, 6^th)   TE   Mississippi St.
• Peter Kalambayi (214^th, 6^th)   OLB   Stanford
• Jermaine Kelly (222^nd, 7^th)   DB   San Jose St.

Immediate Impact:  OL Martinas Rankin

The Texans are a pretty solid looking team in many respects but their offensive line leaves a lot to be desired.  Rankin played OT in college but most assumed he would move inside, perhaps to center, in the NFL.  Not so fast, the state of the Texans OTs means Rankin will have a shot there.  Julie’n Davenport is slated to start at LT, he has some developing to do.  Seantrel Henderson, a castoff from Buffalo, is set for the RT job.  Anyone the Bills discarded on the offensive line is suspect.  Rankins will start somewhere, probably not at center if Nick Martin is healthy, but any of the other four positions could be had.

Best Value:  S Justin Reid

I’m not sure if Reid will beat out Andre Hal for the starting spot opposite Tyrann Mathieu but it’s possible.  Reid was talked about by some as a first-round prospect, I thought second-round was more plausible, which means getting him early in the third was good value.

Sleeper:  DE Duke Ejiofor

Not a household name because he played at Wake Forest but he’s classically built for the Texans 3-man line.  With JJ Watt’s injury history and the fact, he’s 29 years old the team has needs.  They aren’t exactly deep on the defensive line so Ejiofor should find some playing time and he can play.  He’s a power player that could become a future starter.

Overall Analysis

This analysis isn’t complete without noting the fact the team didn’t have a first-round pick this year because they traded it last season to move up to take Deshaun Watson.  Watson looked great once he took over last season and before he got hurt.  The biggest concern right now is he may be running for his life behind a terrible offensive line.  Getting a mobile QB killed because of a bad o-line is a bad strategy, a lesson the team should have learned from the RG3 years in Washington.  Reid was great value in the third and so was Rankin. TEs Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas were necessary due to a lack of any depth after the early retirement of CJ Fiedorowicz due to concussions.  WR Keke Coutee has some work to do to overcome his size limitations but is speed is intriguing and since the rest of the WR corps has problems staying healthy he could stick around.  LB Kalambayi and DB Kelly are probably not making the roster.

Indianapolis Colts

• Quenton Nelson (6^th, 1^st)   OG Notre Dame
• Darius Leonard (36^th, 2^nd)   OLB   South Carolina St.
• Braden Smith (37^th, 2^nd )   OG   Auburn
• Kemoko Turay (52^nd, 2^nd)   DE   Rutgers
• Tyquon Lewis (64^th, 2^nd)   DE   Ohio St.
• Nyheim Hines (104^th, 4^th)   RB   North Carolina St.
• Daurice Fountain (159^th, 5^th)   WR   Northern Iowa
• Jordan Wilkins (169^th, 5^th)   RB   Mississippi
• Deon Cain (185^th, 6^th)   WR   Clemson
• Matthew Adams (221^st, 7^th)   LB   Houston
• Zaire Franklin (235^th, 7^th)   LB   Syracuse

Immediate Impact:  OG Quenton Nelson, OG Braden Smith, LB Darius Leonard

Clearly, GM Chris Ballard prioritized protecting Andrew Luck above all else.  The offensive line has been a problem but Nelson is the best OG prospect in 15 years and he’s an immediate starter.  Smith played OT at Auburn but he is expected to shift inside to OG in the pros.  The team could take a look at him, Jack Mewhort and Joe Haeg and figure out who is the best option at RT and who should play OG.

Best Value:  WR Deon Cain

I thought about making him my sleeper pick but he’s actually sort of a big name.  Cain looks the part of a top WR but for some reason just never reached the level of being a superstar like previous Clemson WRs (Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams, etc., it’s an impressive list).  Cain was supposed to be that level but his hands are inconsistent and he just never dominates his opponent.  He has the tools, if the Colts unlock his potential he’s a monster pick in the 6^th round.

Sleeper:  WR Daurice Fountain

The Colts have a new coaching staff and new WR coach Keven Patullo has his work cut out for him.  Besides TY Hilton the team is pretty poor at WR.  Fountain has the physical tools you look for; height, weight, speed, agility and vertical leap but he lacks technique and fundamentals.  He beat his competition at UNI with his physical gifts, in the NFL that won’t work so well.  If he can fix his technical issues he could be a star.

Overall Analysis

GM Chris Ballard knew what he wanted to do and that was rebuild the offensive line and the defensive front seven.  I can’t say I like all his picks but I understand his decision.  Nelson and Smith help a great deal on the offensive line and Nelson will especially improve the run game, tell Marlon Mack to get behind him and go.  The team took 5 players in the defensive front seven, LB Darius Leonard should start immediately.  Leonard is a bit undersized but he should bring speed and tackling to a defense lacking in both.  The defense is in transition from the previous 3-4 alignment to more of a 4-3 look so DEs Kemoko Turay and Tyquan Lewis should get some playing time for sure.  Adams and Franklin, the two 7^th round LBs, may not seem like they are going to contribute but, on this defense, don’t count anyone out.  The two WRs could prove to be important weapons for Andrew Luck.  The team also took two RBs, Nyheim Hines is the small scatback who should play on third down and Jordan Wilkins is the bigger back you can use between the tackles.  With Marlon Mack and Robert Turbin, the likely top two backs, there is playing time to be had here.  This was a draft that is meant to build a foundation, it wasn’t flashy but it should help this team get better.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Taven Bryan (29^th, 1^st)   DT   Florida
• DJ Chark (61^st, 2^nd)   WR   LSU
• Ronnie Harrison (93^rd, 3^rd)   S   Alabama
• Will Richardson (129^th, 4^th)   OT   North Carolina St.
• Tanner Lee (203^rd, 6^th)   QB   Nebraska
• Leon Jacobs (230^th, 7^th)   OLB   Wisconsin
• Logan Cooke (247^th, 7^th)   P   Mississippi St.

Immediate Impact:  P Logan Cooke

The Jaguars made the AFC title game last year because of the depth of their team and their strength on defense, it will be hard for any rookie to make an impact.  That is unless of course the team doesn’t have someone at your position.  On a team that has a suspect offense and a great defense a punter can actually make a difference because of field position.  I don’t know if Cooke is going to be great but the Jags don’t have a punter so it’s his job.

Best Value:  DT Taven Bryan

The Jags defense doesn’t need any help but Bryan was too good to pass up at 29^th overall.  He’s a versatile player who can play DT or DE and with Malik Jackson being very expensive and Calais Campbell being 31 years old Bryan is a nice investment for the future.  For now, he’s really good depth.

Sleeper:  OT Will Richardson

Richardson is a big guy with plenty of power and good pass blocking skills.  The Jags RT is Jeremy Parnell who is 31 so Richardson could be developed to eventually take his place.

Overall Analysis

The team split their seven draft picks three on offense, three on defense and one on special teams, that what a team that played in the AFC Championship game should do.  Second-round pick WR DJ Chark brings size and speed to a unit that lost Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.  Chark wasn’t especially productive but that was probably as much about playing at LSU with their less than impressive cast of QBs.  He’s not a natural hands catcher but with Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook ahead of him he has time to work on it.  S Ronnie Harrison is either an in-the-box safety or a small LB but on this team he’s a special team’s guy and a backup.  In my opinion the Tanner Lee pick was a waste, even in the 6^th round he wasn’t worth a pick.  He’s the only QB pick in the draft worse than the Patriots taking Danny Etling.  LB Leon Jacobs might make the team as a backup but this defense is pretty solid.  P Logan Cooke has the job by default unless the Jags sign a veteran as competition before the season starts.  Cheap rookie punters are a nice luxury though when the rest of your team is expensive.

Tennessee Titans

• Rashaan Evans (22^nd, 1^st)   LB   Alabama
• Harold Landry (41^st, 2^nd)   OLB   Boston College
• Dane Cruikshank (152^nd, 5^th)   S   Arizona
• Luke Falk (199^th, 6^th)   QB   Washington St.

Immediate Impact:  LB Rashaan Evans

The team lost Avery Williamson in free agency and needed to get a tackler to replace him and they certainly did that.  Evans was a standout on Alabama’s defense and that’s saying something.  He immediately starts inside next to Wesley Woodyard and he brings youth and speed they need.

Best Value:  OLB Harold Landry

There were some who thought Landry could go in round one but his injury from last year slowed his progress and the Titans took advantage.  For this year he’ll be a nice pass rush specialist and back up Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan.  Next year he’s likely a starter as Orakpo is aging and both are free agents.

Sleeper: ????????

When you only have four draft picks there is no sleeper.

Overall Analysis

The smallest draft class of the year with only four picks actually came up with two good prospects at two need positions in Evans and Landry.  I’m sure the team would like to find someone to replace Jonathan Cyprien at SS but I don’t think 5^th round pick Dane Cruikshank is that guy but who knows I could be wrong.  QB Luke Falk put up huge numbers at Washington St. in Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense but he’s not much like starter Marcus Mariota so if the offense is designed for Mariota’s strengths that probably isn’t good for Falk.  What is good for Falk is that his competition to be the backup is Blaine Gabbert, although Gabbert has shown to be a solid backup QB at his last two stops Arizona and San Francisco.