New England Patriots

Tom Brady didn’t look like he was 40 years old last season and I have no reason to believe he’ll look like he’s 41 this year.  The Patriots offense should keep humming right along as long as Brady is the trigger man.  The skill positions are a bit in flux but that has rarely had much effect on the effectiveness of the offense.  The team lost RB Dion Lewis in free agency but they return Rex Burkhead and James White, they drafted Sony Michel (who had a great chance to become the starter before he got hurt) and they are taking a flyer on resurrecting Jeremy Hill’s career.  Don’t sleep on Hill either, he’s a big back and Belichick’s offense has had luck with Corey Dillon, Antwoine Smith and LeGarrette Blount.  The WRs are in flux with Julian Edelman suspended four games, Danny Amendola moving on to Miami and the short-lived tenure of Jordan Matthews.  The team will rely on Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, and rookie Braxton Berrios (the Wes Welker clone).  Luckily for Brady his favorite target, TE Rob Gronkowski, is back to lead the way.  The offensive line has to replace stalwart LT Nate Solder who left for the big bucks and bright lights of New York (the Giants, not the Jets).  The team traded for Trent Brown from the Raiders on draft weekend and while he’s raw he could be molded by famed offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia into a pretty solid LT.  The Patriots hedged their bets by drafting Georgia offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn and then he tore his Achilles.  Things are not going well for Georgia Bulldogs drafted by the Patriots.  The rest of the offensive line is solid but unspectacular.  However, as long as Brady is good to go so is this offense.

The Patriots defense will be in a bit of flux with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia off to Detroit but Belichick will figure it out.  They did their usual bargain shopping on the free agent market and made some trades for guys that may have underachieved.  The picked up DE Adrian Clayborn to give them a stronger pass rush, if he could line up against the Cowboys backup LT all season long he’d have about 96 sacks this year but that seems unlikely.  He will give them more consistency up front though.  They traded for two Cleveland Browns (doesn’t seem like a recipe for success but I’m not going to question Belichick).  DT Danny Shelton is a massive human being that just didn’t put it together in Cleveland but he’s 24 years old and you can’t teach a guy to be 6’2 335 lbs. They also picked up CB Jason McCourty so now they have both McCourty brothers (Devin is the long-time star FS of the Patriots).  Jason isn’t flashy and he’s not young anymore either but he’s solid and he’s a far better choice to start opposite Stephon Gilmore than Eric Rowe.  DT Malcolm Brown had a good year last year and LB Kyle Van Noy played pretty well too.  Getting LB Don’t’a Hightower back would be a big boost to the leadership and talent on defense.  CB Stephon Gilmore and FS Devin McCourty are the backbone of the secondary and they make it tough on every offense they face.

Somehow Bill Belichick convinced Josh McDaniels to turn down the Indianapolis Colts head coaching job after he had already accepted it and if we believe everyone involved they didn’t promise McDaniels he would eventually replace Belichick.  I don’t believe that for a second but true or not it’s good news for the Patriots now because Brady keeps his offensive coordinator around.  The team did lose long-time defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to Detroit and technically Belichick hasn’t actually named a coordinator to replace him.  Belichick can act as his own coordinator and he has gone without a defensive coordinator before, however, it seems like LB coach Brian Flores is the most likely one to help call the defense on gamedays.  The Patriots basically win the AFC East every year and as long as Brady and Belichick are still around I’m not picking someone else to win the division.  I’m certainly not going to do it when the other three teams QBs are Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold and one of AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen (Buffalo).  The Jets just traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints to backup Drew Brees and he might have been the second best QB in the division.

Miami Dolphins

I’m going to go with the team with the most stable QB situation for the year.  Ryan Tannehill is returning from a knee injury but he really has no competition for the starting job.  Two years ago, he had a pretty solid year in Adam Gase’s first season as head coach.  The Dolphins are hoping the two can get back to building the offense from that point.  The team traded Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia last season and then Kenyan Drake actually stepped up and played fairly well down the stretch.  They signed the ageless wonder Frank Gore to back him up just in case he faulters a bit this year. Keep an eye on late round draft pick RB Kalen Ballage, he was inconsistent in college but he has size and talent.  The Dolphins traded their most productive WR Jarvis Landry in the off season to avoid paying him a lot of money.  They are hoping DeVante Parker will break out and live up to his lofty 1^st round draft slot but they hedged their bets in free agency.  They signed Danny Amendola to replace Landry as the slot receiver and they also signed Albert Wilson give them another option.  Kenny Stills remains the deep threat and they still have Jakeem Grant, a young and undersized playmaker they hope contributes.  Two other youngsters hoping to push the issue at WR are Leonte Carroo and undrafted free agent Isaiah Ford.  At TE the team drafted Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe to overhaul the position.  It may take the rookies a minute to overtake veterans AJ Derby and Marquis Gray but that should be about all the time it takes.  The offensive line is led by LT Laremy Tunsil and RT Ja’Waun James.  The interior of the line is in transition as the team signed Josh Sitton and OG and traded for Daniel Kilgore at OC.  The other OG position could be Jesse Davis but that is yet to be determined.

The team is hoping two trades they made improve their defensive line overall.  They picked up Robert Quinn from the Rams hoping he’ll juice up the pass rush.  Last season he was playing out of position as an OLB but he returns to DE hoping to rediscover his game from a few years ago. Playing opposite Cameron Wake should open things up for him too.  The team also traded for Akeem Spence from the Lions to replace Ndamukong Suh who was released for salary cap purposes.  Spence and Jordan Phillips should make for a stout pair up the middle.  Wake and Quinn should be a nice pass rushing duo but they have some help too.  William Hayes was brought in from LA and Andre Branch and Charles Harris also return at DE.  The LB corps was terrible last season.  The return of Raekwon McMillan at MLB should go a long way towards stabilizing things.  Kiko Alonso should be solid at strongside LB.  Where the team may have really improved is with speedy rookie Jerome Baker taking over on the weakside, he won the job in training camp.  Xavien Howard has proven to be a good CB and they were hoping Cordrea Tankersley can step up on the other side but that doesn’t look like it’s happening.  Bobby McCain is holding down that spot for new.  It’s the safety positions where they hope to make some progress.  FS Reshad Jones was very good last season and they hope 1^st round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick can become the playmaker opposite him.

The offense took a step back last season with Jay Cutler at QB after Tannehill’s injury sidelined him all season.  Gase has to figure out how to get the team going back in the right direction.  He started by bringing in a new offensive coordinator in Dowell Loggains.  They really need to see if Tannehill is the answer at QB or if it’s time to cut bait and find a new franchise QB.  Gase is a bright offensive mind but if the QB can’t do the job it won’t matter.  The defense should be better with Quinn, Spence, McMillan, Baker and Fitzpatrick improving each level.  The defense was middling last season while the offense was bad.  If the defense can get closer to the top 10 and the offense can just be middle of the pack this team should finish a distant second the Patriots in the division but they might compete for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a three-way battle at QB between former career backup to Andy Dalton, AJ McCarron, five INTs in a single half Nathan Peterman, and not ready for primetime rookie Josh Allen.  Allen is clearly the long-term plan but his accuracy issues need work before he goes against NFL defenses or it could ruin his confidence before he ever gets going.  Peterman stepped in last season to replace Tyrod Taylor and had a disastrous debut with his five INTs in one half before being benched, that doesn’t inspire confidence.  McCarron was hoping to cash in this off season and get a starting job somewhere but all of the spots filled up and he took a short-term deal in Buffalo, then they draft Allen so his tenure is guaranteed to be short.  Whomever lines up at QB will rely heavily on RB LeSean McCoy assuming he doesn’t get suspended for a domestic dispute charge that hasn’t gone anywhere so far.  The team traded for WR Kelvin Benjamin last year from the Panthers, he spent some time this preseason lamenting having to play with Cam Newton previously because he thinks Newton is an inaccurate QB.  Wait until he sees Allen throw some more.  Benjamin will pair with Zay Jones or the newly acquired Corey Coleman (don’t count too much on a Browns castoff WR).  Even with question marks at QB and WR the biggest concern on offense is the offensive line.  The team traded LT Cordy Glenn in the off season and are counting on Dion Dawkins to fill the void, that’s asking a lot of a guy that should probably be a guard.  The rest of the line is even more suspect.  They would be better off waiting on playing Allen until they get him some real protection up front, let the other two QBs take the beating this season.

The defense was almost as bad as the offense last season.  The line gets an upgrade with the signing of DT Star Lotulelei but they better hope third-year man Shaq Lawson gets healthy and contributes at DE because Trent Murphy isn’t the answer opposite Jerry Hughes.  The LB corps lost its most productive player in MLB Preston Brown.  Brown wasn’t flashy but he was solid as a rock for this team.  Rookie Tremaine Edmunds steps in for Brown and he will flash quite often but he’s a rookie so his consistency may not match Brown just yet.  He has a chance to be a transcendent talent but he’s still young so give him some time.  Matt Milano is another young guy but without the upside of Edmunds.  Both of them will rely on old warhorse Lorenzo Alexander, the 35-year old has been around the block a few times.  The secondary is probably the strongest unit on the defense with CB Tre’Davious White coming off a very good rookie year, the signing of veteran CB Vontae Davis to play opposite White and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer a solid pair at safety.  Hyde and Poyer both had 5 INTs a piece last season and Hyde was actually selected to the Pro Bowl.

The defense could improve in its second year under head coach Sean McDermott but the offense is likely to take a step back without the steady hand of Tyrod Taylor.  The offense will be overly reliant on LeSean McCoy and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will be looking to find ways to make the passing game more effective.  The Bills and Jets seem destine to fight it out for the bottom of the division and I’m only giving the Bills a slight advantage because as much as I don’t like their offensive line the Jets’ line is even worse.  I also think the Bills defense has a little more potential to bail them out a few times this year, especially that opportunistic secondary.

New York Jets

The Jets have the steady presence of Josh McCown in the QB room but Sam Darnold is going to win the starting job out of training camp.  He’s looked legit and the team just traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints to clear the deck for Darnold.  Darnold is the shining hope for this team and McCown is the perfect backup for him.  The team signed Isaiah Crowell to be their lead back and while he’s not going to set the world on fire he’s a solid starter.  Bilal Powell makes a nice complement to Crowell.  WR is a bit of a crapshoot as Robby Anderson proved to be a find last year but he has off the field issues that could end up keeping him off the field.  Jermaine Kearse is steady but unspectacular.  Terrell Pryor comes in coming off a disappointing season in Washington and they shouldn’t expect much from him.  The team is trying to figure out what it has at TE, it may not be much.  The offensive line is where the offense may really fall apart.  Kelvin Beachum is slated to start at LT but he’s nursing an injury and he’s not exactly stellar to begin with.  C Spencer Long was signed from the Redskins but he’s coming off an injury too.  LG James Carpenter, RG Brian Winters and RT Brandon Shell are essentially middling veterans at this point.  The team has to hope this group becomes more than the sum of its individual parts but that seems unlikely.

The defense has some talent to work with at each level but is missing some key ingredients to become good.  DE Leonard Williams is a fantastic player but the once formidable defensive line of the Jets has lost its luster.  NT Steve McClendon is fine but he’s 32 so he could slow down at any moment.  They are hoping rookie DE Nathan Sheppard from Fort Hays State can make the leap up and be an effective player, that’s asking a lot.  Their ILB duo of Darron Lee and free agent Avery Williamson should be pretty good but this is a 3-4 defense that doesn’t have effective pass rushers at OLB.  That’s not how you want to build a 3-4 defense.  Listed starters Jordan Jenkins and Josh Martin had 4.5 sacks last year…total…together.  If they can’t find a pass rush that’s going to make for a long year for their secondary.  CB Trumaine Johnson was brought in to pair with Morris Claiborne and while they make a solid pair they aren’t frightening anyone.  The safety duo of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye had a decent rookie year together last year but this team needs them to make major progress as playmakers because the CB group isn’t going to be doing that.

Todd Bowles is a good coach and I applaud the Jets organization for not throwing in the towel on him after a couple of tough seasons when things weren’t going their way.  He made some staff changes and he brought in Jeremy Bates to be his new offensive coordinator.  I’m not sure how much patience the ownership/front office group still has but now that the team has a rookie QB to build around they will want to see progress on the offensive side of the ball.  This team will struggle with a poor offensive line blocking upfront and on defense a nearly non-existent pass rush is a killer.  Luckily for them, other than New England, the rest of the division is hardly terrifying.  They could be better than the Bills and/or the Dolphins or they could go 3-13.  This team has a ways to go to rebuild but Sam Darnold is now the foundation they need to build around.

 

 

 

Los Angeles Rams

Jared Goff went from rookie question mark to unquestioned starter in a season thanks to Sean McVay and his competent offensive scheme, yes that’s a shot at Jeff Fisher and whatever he was trying to do his last year with the Rams.  The offense found an identity with running back Todd Gurley and a much-improved offensive line.  Gurley signed an extension this off season so he is set as the major star of the offense for the foreseeable future.  Gurley makes Goff’s life a lot easier and he’s proven to be a versatile weapon across the board.  The team lost WR Sammy Watkins in free agency but they traded for Brandin Cooks from the Patriots, then they signed him to an extension.  Cooks is a more consistent threat than Watkins and Goff should appreciate that.  Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp proved to be two reliable options that keep the offense moving.  The team doesn’t have much of a threat at TE but Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett aren’t terrible.  The offensive line improved when the team brought in veterans Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan at LT and C respectively.  Whitworth is 36 so the team needs to start planning for the future there and LG Roger Saffold is 30 so the left side is aging.  They re-signed RT Rob Havenstein to an extension so that position is solidified for now.

With Gurley, Cooks and Havenstein all signing contract extensions it begs the question why is All-World DT Aaron Donald still waiting for a new contract?  Donald is the Defensive Player of the Year and he’s holding out because he still doesn’t have a new contract.  Gurley is the face of the offense and the team should want Donald to be the face of the defense considering how good and young he is.  I have to believe they will get it worked out by Donald may miss a few games if they don’t figure it out soon.  That would be unfortunate because the Rams could have the best defensive line in football with Donald joining Michael Brockers and newly signed Ndamukong Suh.  That’s an impressive group up front and it’s necessary because the LBs aren’t so great.  The team traded ILB Alec Ogletree to the Giants and OLB Robert Quinn to the Dolphins leaving Mark Barron as the only proven commodity at the position.  OLBs Corey Littleton and Samson Ebukam and ILB Matt Longacre are the other starters for now, yeah, I don’t know who those guys are either.  The team decided to punt on their CBs from last season and they pulled off two trades for Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters.  That’s an amazing upgrade overall and while Talib and Peters have big personalities they also have major talent.  Peters might be the best cover corner in the league.  At safety the team brought back Lamarcus Joyner and John Johnson returns after starting most of the season as a rookie last year.  The secondary should be a major strength but it was the run defense that wasn’t great last year so they need the LBs to step up.  Having Suh upfront should also help in that regard.

Sean McVay showed up last season as the league’s youngest head coach and proved why he was the right man for the job.  He turned the offense around in an instant and found the best ways to use the talent on the team like Gurley and even Sammy Watkins.  McVay was also smart enough to hire Wade Phillips to run his defense and they trust Phillips scheme enough that they traded Robert Quinn away because he wasn’t a great fit.  They lost offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur and are replacing him with a passing game coordinator and a run game coordinator but that shouldn’t matter because this is McVay’s show.  I have no reason to think the team won’t be as good or even better than last season so I’m picking them to win the NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are the trendy pick to make the playoffs but I’m not sure I’m going that far.  They will certainly be much improved and they may compete for a spot but I’m not putting them in just yet.  The optimism is understandable considering the way Jimmy Garoppolo played last season after coming over in a trade.  Jimmy G hasn’t lost as a starter in the NFL and it’s a nice boost the 49ers organization to have clarity at the QB position.  His $137 million contract has drawn a lot of attention but the team decided to commit to him and build around his talent and that’s a good start to turning around the franchise.  The team has also made a commitment in both money and draft picks to the offensive line to protect Garoppolo.  LT Joe Staley is 34 this season but he’s as solid as a rock and while he has restructured his contract he’s still well paid.  The team signed C Weston Richburg to lock down the middle and give Jimmy G someone to count on in front of him.  They drafted Mike McGlinchey in the first round and he’ll start at RT.  They also have former first round picks Laken Tomlinson, Joshua Garnett and Jonathan Cooper battling for the starting OG spots.  At RB the team signed Jerick McKinnon and while he brings a skill set they didn’t have he’s not really an every down back.  Perhaps recently signed veteran Alfred Morris or returning from injury Joe Williams will add to the running game.  Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon return at WR and Garoppolo made Goodwin look good last year.  They didn’t add much at WR but rookie Dante Pettis could contribute.  At TE the team hopes George Kittle doesn’t miss much time with his shoulder injury as he was becoming a solid weapon on the inside.

The defense is where the team will likely struggle.  They were bottom ten in the league last year and there isn’t much help on the way.  Up front the team has former first round picks DE Solomon Thomas, DE Arik Armstead and DT DeForest Bruckner along with veteran DT Earl Mitchell.  There is plenty of potential but Thomas and Armstead are banged up and the team needs them to generate a pass rush or it will be a long year for the secondary.  At LB Reuben Foster is the best on the team but he will start the year on a suspension and the team has to hope he can keep himself out of trouble because they can’t afford to lose him for longer.  Malcolm Smith is a solid veteran but he’s pretty much all they got after Foster.  The team hopes rookie Fred Warner can contribute early the rest of the group is non-descript.  At CB they have Ahkello Witherspoon who was pretty solid once he took over the starting job last year.  They signed Richard Sherman after the Seahawks cut him and while he should be motivated to prove he still has something left he is coming off of an Achilles injury and he’s 30, that’s not a great combination.  Jimmy Ward moved from safety to CB and he’s competing to be the nickel back.   Jaquiski Tartt is set to start at SS with Adrian Colbert lining up at FS.  They are young safeties without a lot of experience and if the pass rush is non-existent this team is going to struggle defensively.

After the debacle that was the Jim Tomsula and then Chip Kelly years as head coach the team finally made the smart decision to hire Kyle Shanahan last year.  His partnership with new GM John Lynch is off to a solid start the team actually seems to have a direction now.  Shanahan got a lot out of Jimmy G last year even with a mediocre supporting cast at the skill positions.  They didn’t upgrade much there but they offensive line should be better and Jimmy G should have even better command of the offense with a full off season under his belt.  The defense still leaves a lot to be desired and unless the three former first round picks on the defensive line really blossom it isn’t going to change just yet.  The team will be better and they are on the right track but a playoff spot in the NFC is going to be difficult to come by.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are undergoing some major changes from last years team as Bruce Arians retired from coaching and QB Carson Palmer retired from playing.  In steps Steve Wilks and new coaching staff and the team signed Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon and drafted Josh Rosen to completely reset the QB position.  Bradford is set to start but he’s proven to be injury prone, I know that’s an understatement, and Rosen is the future, the future could be very soon.  Either of them would benefit with the healthy return of David Johnson who was injured last season at RB.  Johnson is a playmaker and has a vast array of skills.  At WR future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald returns again and at age 34 he’s coming off a season with 109 catches, yes, those numbers are both correct.  The team lost both John and Jaron Brown but rookie Christian Kirk looks like the real deal.  The team is hoping Ricky Seals-Jones can give them something at TE.  This offense will come down to how the offensive line performs.  LT DJ Humphries only played in five games last season and the team needs him healthy and playing like the 1^st round pick he was.  They signed RG Justin Pugh and are counting on RT Andre Smith to stabilize the right side, that’s a dicey proposition.  At C rookie Mason Cole is looking to step in for veteran AQ Shipley who will miss the season with an injury.  LG Mike Iupati is the only sure thing but even he had an uneven year last year.  If the offensive line comes together the offense will be fine if not it could be a disaster.

The Cardinals defense is entering a transition from the 3-4 to a 4-3 under new head coach Steve Wilks and new defensive coordinator Al Holcomb.  This isn’t going to be an easy transition as the team is dealing with some injuries on the defensive line.  DTs Robert Nkemdiche and Corey Peters are both banged up and DE Markus Golden is still on the PUP list recovering from an ACL tear.  That leaves DE Chandler Jones as the only healthy presumed starter and while he’s good he can’t do it alone.  The LB corps should be a strength with MLB Josh Bynes flanked by Deone Buchanan and Hassan Reddick.  The secondary still boasts CB Patrick Peterson and he’s one of the best in the league but his running partner is still questionable.  The team traded for Jamar Taylor and signed Bene Benwikere, two guys who have flashed talent at times but are hardly consistent performers.  The team decided not to bring back Tyrann Mathieu so Budda Baker will be the SS and Antoine Bethea will play FS.  The team recently signed Tre Boston and he makes for good depth.

Steve Wilks spent last year as the defensive coordinator in Carolina after serving the previous five as defensive backs coach.  With only one year as a coordinator Wilks steps up to the top job and he’ll have his work cut out for him transitioning this defense to a four-man front.  In the long run it’s a better fit for both Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche and they are the most talented players up front.  He brought long-time Panthers LB coach Al Holcomb along as his defensive coordinator and Holcomb did a great job in Carolina with the talent there, he should love Buchanan and Reddick.  Veteran offensive coordinator Mike McCoy comes in after being the scapegoat for a terrible offense in Denver last year (like it was his fault the line was terrible and his QB was Trevor Simien).  McCoy coached Phillip Rivers to some great seasons in San Diego and he should do well bringing Rosen along.  This team either needs Bradford to stay healthy (that’s a longshot) or Rosen to step up (more probable) and the defense has to make a quick transition.  The division is in transition as the Rams look to solidify the top spot, the 49ers try to continue their growth and the Seahawks try to figure out what they are doing.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson had a fantastic year last year and that managed to get the team a 9-7 record, unless he has a superhuman season this year 9-7 is just wishful thinking.  He carried the offense when the running game was non-existent and the offensive line was in shambles.  Even if those two things are better this year the defense is going to fall off.  The team drafted RB Rashad Penny in the first round to try to kick start their running game but it’s last year’s rookie Chris Carson who has looked the best in the preseason and if he stays healthy it should be his job.  At WR Doug Baldwin has become one the most dependable receivers in the game and Wilson relies on him heavily.  They need either Tyler Lockett or the newly signed Jaron Brown to provide a spark opposite Baldwin.  The team let TE Jimmy Graham go in the off season and while he wasn’t his old Saints self they will miss his playmaking.  The offensive line still looks like a mess.  LT Duane Brown was brought in last season in a trade and he should finally stabilize that spot and Justin Britt is solid at C.  However, the other three spots are still a question mark.  RT Germain Ifedi has been bad but none of George Fant, Isaiah Battle and Jamarco Jones have been healthy enough to take the job away from him.  They would be better off with one of those three at RT and moving Ifedi to the bench or the unemployment line.  They hope a healthy Ethan Pocic can lock down the LG spot and that DJ Fluker can be the RG.

While the offense certainly has question marks the defense looks pretty rough.  Up front the team has DT Jarran Reed and DE Frank Clark and then…well that’s where it gets rough.  At defensive end they are either counting on uber-bust Dion Jordan to recover from a leg injury (he’s missed training camp) or then need rookie Rasheem Green to find his way or Eric Walden needs to find the fountain of youth and the fountain of talent.  For now, former practice squad player Branden Jackson is lining up opposite Clark.  DT Tom Johnson was a veteran signed for depth but now he’s penciled in as the starter next to Reed.  They don’t even have options at DT to replace him.  At LB Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright return and they will be the backbone of the defense.  The other linebacker is another former first round bust Barkevious Mingo.  If you thought the defensive line was in trouble you should see the secondary.  CB Shaquill Griffin had a good rookie year this year but for now his counterpart is Byron Maxwell.  Maxwell shouldn’t be a starter for anyone at this point.  They have to be hoping Justin Coleman or another young corner steps up.  At safety the team is locked in a stalemate with Earl Thomas who wants a new contract or to be traded, he’s not with the team for now.  Tedric Thompson is taking Thomas’ place at the moment and he’s a serious downgrade.  SS Kam Chancellor retired due to injury thus leaving Bradley McDougald to take his spot.  He’s not bad but he’s not Chancellor either.

There is a lot of upheaval taking place in Seattle as Pete Carroll decided to make some major changes to his coaching staff.  He used to have to replace defensive coordinators because they moved on to head coaching jobs (Gus Bradley, Dan Quinn) but this time he fired Kris Richard and replaced him with Ken Norton Jr.  Norton was fired last year from his defensive coordinator position with the Raiders but he returns to Seattle where he once coached for Carroll before.  Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell was also shown the door (a move applauded by all Seahawk fans who remember the Super Bowl loss) but I’m not sure Brian Schottenheimer was the big-name people were hoping for as a replacement.  He’s been around a long time but he’s bounced around too.  For some reason NFL head coaches like to recycle offensive coordinators like Schottenheimer, Greg Olson, Bill Musgrave and Norv Turner, it’s a pattern.  We will see if Schottenheimer and new offensive line coach Mike Solari can get the guys upfront to play better and give the offense a chance to do something.  It’s going to take more than a little good coaching to get the defense to be good.  For Seahawks fans I fear time may be running out on the Pete Carroll magic and this coach shuffling is just a last-ditch effort to fix things.  It rarely works if ever and they may just be wasting a year of Russell Wilson’s prime.

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The offense will once again be based around the three B’s, Big Ben, Brown and Bell.  Roethlisberger is aging but with the weapons around him and a solid offensive line he’s still a more than effective QB.  Antonio Brown is arguably the best WR in the league and the list of his equals is short.  Le’Veon Bell is once again locked in a contract dispute with the team and he will wait until the season starts to sign his franchise tender and he’ll miss all of training camp.  It will take him a week or two to get going but he’ll be an elite back this season once again.  His absence has given the Steelers the opportunity to see more of James Connor and he looks like an effective alternative to Bell.  WR JuJu Smith-Schuster was very good as a rookie last year and allowed the team to trade Martavis Bryant in the off season.  Smith-Schuster should excel playing opposite Brown and the team added Oklahoma St.’s James Washington in the draft to be a new deep threat.  Washington is proving to be just that this preseason.  The offensive line is a solid group that has proven to be highly effective.  They are not a flashy group but they are good.

As always, the Steelers defense was good last year and it looks to be good again this year.  They have a lot of players in their prime with a mix of still effective veterans with some solid young talent.  DE Cameron Heyward is the veteran on the defensive line while Javon Hargrave and Stephon Tuitt are in their prime years.  There isn’t a lot of depth there but they get the job done.  At LB the team didn’t do anything to replace the injured Ryan Shazier and that could come back to haunt them.  He was a playmaker and the duo of Vince Williams and Tyler Matakevich isn’t scaring anyone.  OLB Bud Dupree gets one more chance to prove he’s the pass rusher the team hoped he is when they drafted him but it’s second-year man TJ Watt who looks to be the playmaker the defense needs.  At CB the team pairs veteran Joe Haden with youngster Artie Burns and they make an effective duo.  At some point Haden could really fall off so they need another youngster like Cameron Sutton to be ready to step in.  The team signed veteran safety Morgan Burnett to fill a hole at strong safety and they are hoping Sean Davis can hold the fort at free safety.  They surprisingly drafted Terrell Edmunds in the first round to be the future but he’s going to need some time to learn.

Mike Tomlin is going into his 11^th season as the head coach of the Steelers, yeah, I can’t believe that either.  He’s reached a point where he’s underappreciated and people are overly critical.  He’s not perfect but he’s done so well that anything less than a Super Bowl is considered a failure by many.  It’s a blessing and a curse.  He made a change this off season jettisoning offensive coordinator Todd Haley and promoting Randy Fichtner.  Fichtner has been Big Ben’s long-time QB coach and he should have a better relationship with Roethlisberger than Haley did.  The offense shouldn’t miss a beat.  Keith Butler has kept the defense humming right along since he took over 3 years ago and he’s done it while having to cover some holes.  This season could be a challenge without a replacement for Shazier leading the way.  The Steelers are still clearly the best team in their division and I don’t see anyone giving them much trouble in the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens offense was pretty terrible last season and it was almost exclusively the fault of the passing game.  The team overhauled their WR corps in the off season and they drafted QB Lamar Jackson in the first round to light a fire under Joe Flacco.  Flacco has been pretty unspectacular since his great playoff run that resulted in the team’s last Super Bowl victory.  The team has paid him a lot of money since then and the drafting of Jackson is the culmination of their frustration.  The running game found its way last year when Alex Collins took over as the lead back.  Collins is a tough runner but he’s not really a weapon in the passing game.  Javoris Allen fills that role and if the two of them stay healthy the running game should be fine.  The top three WRs are new with Michael Crabtree taking over as the top dog, John Brown brought in to be the deep speed and Willie Snead filling the slot.  The only holdover so far is fourth WR Chris Moore and former first round pick Breshad Perriman is on his last chance to just make the roster, I wouldn’t bet on him.  The team took two TEs in the draft, Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews, because their current ones were simply ineffective.  Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams will have to fight off Hurst and Andrews from taking their jobs.  The offensive line is led by RG Marshal Yanda and LT Ronnie Stanley.  The team is hoping Orlando Brown Jr., who fell in the draft, can lock down the RT position because it has been a point of weakness lately.

The Ravens defense is good but it is not great and when coupled with a terrible offense it makes things worse.  The team promoted LB coach Don Martindale to defensive coordinator and they hope he can improve the unit.  They did nothing of significance to improve personnel wise so it’s up the scheme and the improvement of the current players to change the outcome.  It will help if the offense is more effective and puts them in better situations.  The three-man defensive line is still reliant on Brandon Williams to be the playmaker, Michael Pierce and Brent Urban aren’t changing the game.  ILB CJ Mosley is the best player on the defense and one of the best LBs in the league.  The team is hoping to squeeze another year out of Terrell Suggs at OLB, he’s 35 but he still had 11 sacks last season.  Matt Judon was solid last year opposite Suggs but the team really needs one of its youngsters, Za’Darius Smith, Tyus Bowser or Tim Williams, to step up.  CBs Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith are effective corners and the team still has high hopes for Marlon Humphrey.  Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson are veteran safeties and while Weddle still makes plays he’s 33 and the team doesn’t have much depth.

John Harbaugh is entering his 10^th season as the Ravens head coach and he’s still living off the team’s Super Bowl victory in 2012.  Patience is wearing thin but it’s not all his fault.  As good as Ozzie Newsome once was at drafting the team has missed on some key draft picks in recent years.  When you have major misses like Matt Elam and Breshad Perriman drafted in the first round and guys like Maxx Williams, Tim Jernigan and Arthur Brown in the second round it depletes your roster.  They have drafted many starters and contributors over the last decade but the only real star they drafted in that time was CJ Mosley.  Newsome has handed over the reigns but will that change anything.  The team hopes Lamar Jackson can become a star at QB but that’s going to take some time.  For now, the team is still better than the Bengals and the Browns but that’s not saying much.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals offense was pretty bad last season and a lot of that was due to injuries.  The offensive line was a disaster, TE Tyler Eifert only played in two games and they got literally no production out of first round WR John Ross.  They are banking on some of their own guys getting healthy and even the guys they picked up in the off season for the offensive line have health questions.  Love him or hate him the team is rolling with Andy Dalton for another year and there is no AJ McCarron in the wings.  Matt Barkley and Jeff Driskel are the other QBs so it’s Dalton or bust this season.  Joe Mixon is the man at RB and they need him to be the bell cow.  AJ Green is still a monster at WR and his production only suffers because he has no help taking pressure off of him.  He would benefit the most from John Ross and Tyler Eifert getting healthy.  WR Tyler Boyd can be a good WR but the team needs Ross’s speed to stretch the defense and open things up.  TE Tyler Kroft had a solid year last year filling in for Eifert but he doesn’t have the game breaking ability of Eifert.  He’s a good 2^nd TE but they need Eifert.  The offensive line was a disaster and the team traded for LT Cordy Glenn from the Bills.  Unfortunately, he only played in six games last season so the team needs him to get healthy and stabilize the LT spot for them.  The team finally moved on from Russ Bodine at C but they drafted Billy Price to take his place.  Price is really good but he got hurt during the draft process and they need him fully healthy.  The team has to hope 4^th year players Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher can contribute on the right side and fulfill their potential.  LG Clint Boling is the only sure thing on the line.

The defense returns almost its entire starting unit which is good news against the pass and terrible news against the run.  The team has a new defensive coordinator in Teryl Austin who did a pretty good job with less talent in Detroit.  The defensive line is aging so they need to squeeze the last bit of production out of DEs Carlos Dunlop and Michael Johnson and hope DT Geno Atkins can be his old self.  Atkins had 9 sacks from the interior last year but he’s 30 years old so it’s now or never with him.  The LB corps was a problem last season and while it should be a little better this year it’s not completely stable.  They signed Preston Brown from the Bills to solve their MLB spot and that should improve their run defense alone.  The problem is that Vontaze Burfict has been their best LB for the past several years and of course he’s suspended for the first 4 games of the year.  Nick Vigil is the other LB but he’s coming back from a back injury.  The team has three solid corners in William Jackson, Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard but it would be good if one showed out as an elite corner.  The Bengals made a bit of a surprising move during the preseason by cutting veteran safety George Iloka, he’s been a starter for them for five years.  They are going with rookie Jessie Bates at free safety paired with veteran Shawn Williams at strong safety.  Iloka was solid but certainly not irreplaceable, the big question is whether Bates is really ready to handle the starting job.

In what was a bit of a surprising move the Bengals brought back Marvin Lewis after yet another disappointing season.  Lewis is the second longest tenured coach in the league (only Bill Belichick is ahead of him) but he’s never won a playoff game and the team seems to be going backwards.   I would argue it’s not really Lewis’ fault and he has probably been the best coach in the franchise’s history but after 15 years you can make the argument a new voice is needed.  The new voice will have to come form offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who isn’t really new as he actually took over last season after week 2 when the team fired Ken Zampese and promoted Lazor from QB coach.  New defensive coordinator Teryl Austin is new and he comes in from Detroit to change things up.  He’s used to working with less than stellar LBs from his time there and hopefully he can turn one of their CBs into another Darius Slay.  The Bengals will have their work cut out for them as they try to chase the Steelers and probably the Ravens because they are going to have to watch their heels as the Browns actually look like they will be competitive.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns finally have a GM who looks like he has a clue…almost.  John Dorsey seems to finally have a plan at QB with Tyrod Taylor being the immediate solution and Baker Mayfield being the long-term solution.  I may not have agreed with the Mayfield pick but the Browns have been terrible at this QB thing for awhile so it’s time for them to go with a plan.  One thing Dorsey has done is surround his QBs with some actual NFL-level talent at the skill positions.  RB Carlos Hyde was brought in to carry the load and Nick Chubb was drafted to give him a legitimate backup.  Duke Johnson is a RB by position but he’s just a weapon overall, he catches the ball out of the backfield as well as anyone.  TE David Njoku had a solid rookie debut last season and he has all the tools to be an outstanding TE.  Now with a legitimate QB around he should take a step forward.  At WR the team went out and got Jarvis Landry from the Dolphins.  Landry isn’t a game breaker but he’s one of the best and most reliable slot receivers in the league and he makes any QB more comfortable.  The team is desperately hoping Josh Gordon can walk the line and display his immense talent as their big play guy.  Gordon is one of the most talented WRs in the league if he can stay sober, stay straight and stay on the field.  The team drafted another headcase WR in Antonio Callaway.  Callaway would have been a first-round pick but he’s got issues, he already got in trouble during training camp.  The biggest issue on offense is the unsettled offensive line.  Future first ballot Hall-of-Famer Joe Thomas retired and the team has no obvious solution at LT.  They are trying LG Joel Bitonio there and he might be their best solution.  They brought in former first-round bust Greg Robinson and they have tried Shon Coleman there too, neither is those is a great idea.  Coleman can compete on the right side and they have former Steeler Chris Hubbard too.  The interior of the line should be fine with C JC Tretter and RG Kevin Zeitler.  It could be Bitonio back at LG or rookie Austin Corbett taking that spot, either way 4/5 of the offensive line is solid but LT is a big question mark.

The defense was good against the run and below average against the pass and that made for a unit somewhere in the middle overall.  The 0-16 record belongs to the whole team but it wasn’t as much the defense’s problem as it was the offense.  The defensive line is led by DE Myles Garrett who had a solid debut season after coming off an injury.  He’s the foundation of the front line and they need him to be a constant pressure source.  Emmanuel Ogbah plays opposite Garrett and he should benefit from Garrett drawing the offense’s attention.  DT Larry Ogunjobi is solid and if Caleb Brantley could live up to his potential he could be a find.  The strength of the defense is at LB.  Christian Kirksey, Joe Schobert and Jamie Collins are the backbone and they even strengthened the unit by bringing in Mychal Kendricks from the Eagles.  Kirksey and Collins are especially talented players that really solidify this unit.  The Browns secondary was atrocious last year which is why the only holdover is SS Jabrill Peppers and even he wasn’t a full-time player last season.  At CB the team drafted Denzel Ward to be their #1, then they signed EJ Gaines, Terrence Mitchell and TJ Carrie in free agency to overhaul the unit.  Gaines is hurt but it could be anyone’s ballgame opposite Ward to start the year.  The team even traded for Packers CB bust Damarious Randall with the intention of making him their free safety.

The reason I say John Dorsey almost has a clue is the way he handled the coaching staff.  Hue Jackson is 1-31 in two years as the Browns head coach, I know it’s not all his fault, it may not even be mostly his fault.  However, when Dorsey took the GM job I was surprised he didn’t start over with the coaching staff.  I’m not usually one to advocate quick turnover of a staff because I believe stability is good but I’m not a huge believer in Jackson and one win in two years is reason enough to move for a fresh start.  Jackson is going with a fresh start on offense with former Steelers’ offensive coordinator Todd Haley coming in but even that’s questionable.  Haley hasn’t always had an easy relationship with others, including his QBs.  He does bring an attitude and some fire but that might wear thin quickly.  Gregg Williams took over the defense last year and they were way better than they were before even with a terrible secondary.  It should be interesting what he can do with some new talent in the defensive backfield and a healthy Myles Garrett up front.

 

Los Angeles Chargers

I am tentatively giving the Chargers the benefit of the doubt in this division but that might change if their injury issues pile up again.  It’s already started in the secondary with Jason Verrett out for the year with Achilles injury and Trevon Williams having a leg issue.  The offense has the passing game down as long as Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen stay healthy.  TE Hunter Henry is also out for the year and while they let Antonio Gates go in the off season he’s still available and if no one steps up during camp they may bring in old reliable for one more encore.  Where this team needs work is it’s rushing attack.  They were just under 100 yards per game and when you have a talent like Melvin Gordon leading the way that’s unacceptable.  The offensive line struggled last season especially on the inside.  The team signed veteran center Mike Pouncey and he should stabilize a position that has been unstable for far too long.  The return of Forrest Lamp who missed his rookie year last year with an injury should solidify the interior of the line.  Russell Okung is okay at LT and Dan Feeney should be better at LG so the real weak link is RT Joe Barksdale, they will try to get by for another year with him because they have no one to replace him right now.

The defense was fantastic against the pass last season and absolutely dreadful versus the run.  DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram bring the heat while the secondary is outstanding.  The LB corps is well below average hence the reason they can’t stop the run.  Getting Denzel Perryman healthy for the season would help but it may be up to a couple of rookies to improve the LB corps.  Uchenna Nwosu can be a pass rush specialist but because of his size he’s going to have to play as a LB.  Kyzir White was a safety in college but he’s going to line up as an undersized LB for the Chargers.  His speed and downhill tackling should help against ball carriers.  The real help should come in the form of rookie safety Derwin James.  He will be all over the field and he can bring some pop against the run too.  With Jason Verrett out for the year again and Trevon Williams hurt too Desmond King is going to get some playing time at CB opposite Casey Hayward.  The team needs him to step up to continue their top notch secondary play.

This team hasn’t had the best off season with both Jason Verrett and Hunter Henry going down for the year.  However, they were good on defense without Verrett last year against the pass so the should be fine.  Henry has a lot of potential and they were hoping he would live up to it but if they guys they have don’t cut it Antonio Gates is just a phone call away.  I think they get better this year if the offensive line stays healthy and with the additions of Pouncey and Lamp.  Melvin Gordon should find more running room with those two paving the way up the middle.  Anthony Lynn did a nice job in his first year as head coach of this team and he has two fantastic coordinators in Ken Whisenhunt (offense) and Gus Bradley (defense).  The division is in a bit of flux with Denver having a new QB and not a great year under Vance Joseph, Kansas City breaking in Patrick Mahomes with a suspect defense and Oakland having Jon Gruden hoping it’s 1997 again, only it’s 2018.  I’m giving the division to the Chargers.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos traded away Trevor Simien and signed Case Keenum to be their new QB.  That looks like quite the upgrade going off last year’s performance but Keenum isn’t exactly a proven commodity.  The team let CJ Anderson go and rookie Royce Freeman looks like the guy at RB.  Freeman is outperforming Devontae Booker in the preseason even if Vance Joseph is having a hard time recognizing it.  WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have had a couple of down years and while a lot of that can be traced to poor QB play there is no denying both guys are getting older.  They have unproven players at TE in Jeff Heuerman and Jake Butt.  The offensive line imported Jared Veldheer to replace Menelik Watson at RT and while it’s probably an upgrade Veldheer isn’t exactly a world beater.  The rest of the line is average at best.

The Broncos defense continues to be top notch and with the addition of 1^st round pick Bradley Chubb their pass rush should be fantastic.  CB Bradley Roby should step in just fine for Aqib Talib and Chris Harris is one of the best CBs in the league no one talks about.  The line isn’t spectacular but they hold their own.  At ILB Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis are veterans who will be pushed by rookie Josey Jewell.  The scheme the Broncos run is built around the pass rush of Von Miller and it will continue that way except now he has Chubb to clean up on the other side.  This defense is aging so the window won’t be open for long, they are hoping the offense can carry their water otherwise it will be another disappointing year.

For me this team takes a hit because of the coaching staff.  Vance Joseph wasn’t great last year in his first year as the head coach.  He has hired Bill Musgrave as offensive coordinator and while Musgrave has had success before he seems to bounce around a lot and never really stays more than 2-3 year anywhere.  This concerns me simply because I wonder why he either feels the need to move on or is he wearing out his welcome.  The team needs a steady hand on offense as Keenum takes the reigns behind a suspect offensive line and an aging WR duo.  The team is hoping their draft class on offense of RB Royce Freeman, WR Courtland Sutton and WR DaeSean Hamilton can give a little life to the unit.  The team just feels a bit unsettled so I think they fall behind the Chargers this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

The big move is going from the consistent veteran QB Alex Smith to the high risk/high reward of 2^nd year man Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes started one game last season and while his physical talents are unquestionable the question is can he hold up all season when teams are game planning against him.  He has the benefit of having Kareem Hunt at RB, Travis Kelce at TE and Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins at WR.  Hunt started out hot last year and slowed down over the second half of the season as teams focused on stopping him.  With Mahomes deep arm and Hill and Watkins at WR the hope is Hunt finds more running room.  Kelce is one of the most dangerous TEs in the league and Mahomes would be wise to rely on him in critical situations.  Sammy Watkins was the big off season signing for the Chiefs and while I wholeheartedly believe they massively overpaid him he should make them better.  Watkins has had trouble staying healthy but he should team with Hill to be a dynamic duo.  The offensive line was pretty solid last year if unspectacular.  These guys aren’t going to the Pro Bowl but they do fine.

The defense relies pretty heavily on their OLB generating a pass rush and Tamba Hali’s time finally ran out.  Justin Houston is the focal point now but he wasn’t great last year.  They are hoping Dee Ford can finally get healthy and produce some pressure otherwise the defense might struggle.  They traded CB Marcus Peters because they were just tired of putting up with him but that’s a major blow to the secondary.  They got Kendall Fuller from Washington in the Alex Smith trade and while he has potential to be a #1 CB he isn’t on Marcus Peters’ level .  They signed David Amerson to man the other CB spot and that is basically like hoping a scratch-off lottery ticket pays off big.  Eric Berry made a miraculous return in 2016 from cancer and played great, then last year he tore his Achilles and only played in 1 game.  They are hoping he has another incredible comeback in him.  They let stalwart ILB Derrick Johnson go and they replaced him with free agent Anthony Hitchens.  Hitchens should upgrade the interior defense but they are hoping reclamation project Reggie Ragland can be his partner on the inside.  I would watch out for rookie Dorian Daniel if Ragland can’t hack it.  The defensive line should be steady but that’s all the team really asks of them.

Andy Reid is one of the better coaches in the league and he’s been doing it a long time.  This season may test him a bit more than usual.  He’s breaking in a first year starting QB in Mahomes along with a first-time offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and a first year QB coach Mike Kafka.  That’s a lot of newness for the offense.  The defense was good last year statistically but losing leaders like Hali and Johnson and the talent of Marcus Peters is going to set them back.  They have to hope Kendall Fuller can be a #1 CB and Eric Berry can return to form or their pass defense is really going to suffer.  Without a consistent pass rush, it could get really ugly.

Oakland Raiders

They say you can’t go home again but if someone is willing to give a guy $100 million over 10 years then Jon Gruden is willing to give it a shot.  I thought this could work until I heard Gruden talk about taking the game back to 1997 or whatever year he was talking about.  I do think Derek Carr is a very good QB and has potential to be great, I think Amari Cooper is a real talent at WR.  The offensive line can be very good if Donald Penn settles in at RT and Kolten Miller improves his technique at LT.  The problems lie elsewhere.  They are counting on Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin at RB, good plan 5 years ago, not so much now.  The best back on the team in the preseason has been Chris Warren III, an undrafted free agent who has looked like he belongs.  They signed Jordy Nelson, another good idea 5 years ago, and traded for Martavis Bryant, probably never a good idea.  Gruden was known as an offensive coach when he was with the Raiders and Bucs before but it’s been 10 years and things have changed in the NFL.

The defense is suspect even at full strength and with Khalil Mack holding out they are basically screwed.  DTs Eddie Vanderdoes and Justin Ellis make a nice pair inside but without Mack generating a pass rush they are useless.  For some reason they feel the ghost of Derrick Johnson is the answer at MLB, another idea from 5 years ago perhaps?  The defense lacks a playmaker without Mack and counting on someone like Bruce Irvin to become one is foolish.  Irvin says he’ll be unleashed under the new coaching staff but he’s never had more than 8 sacks in his 7-year career, that’s enough of a sample size to doubt he’ll ever do much better.  They are counting on Gareon Conley to be their #1 CB in his second year after he only played in 2 games as a rookie, that’s asking a lot.

Jon Gruden seems to be building a team meant for 2013 and that’s too bad because GM Reggie McKenzie was on a path to building a solid foundation moving forward.  Carr, Mack and Cooper are building blocks.  He had put together one of the better offensive lines in the league too.  The drafting of LT Kolton Miller would mean more if they weren’t turning his training over to Tom Cable, he of the dreadful Seahawks offensive lines of the past few seasons.  Greg Olson returns as Gruden’s offensive coordinator but he doesn’t elicit much excitement.  Signing past-their-prime free agents like Jordy Nelson, Doug Martin, Derrick Johnson and Leon Hall is not the way you fill major holes on your team.  I think the Gruden experiment is going to blow up in the team’s collective face, the only question is how long will owner Mark Davis let it ride.  It’s too bad too because I think McKenzie was on to something.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

When you’re coming off a Super Bowl win with your backup QB at the helm your offense is in pretty good shape.  Carson Wentz should be back at the helm fairly early in the season if not to start the year.  Nick Foles gives the team the ability not to rush Wentz back.  Either way the QB position is in good hands and if Wentz returns and continues his career progression he’s going to become one of the best QBs in the league.  With Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement and the ageless Darren Sproles at RB that position is fine too.  A full off season and training camp for Ajayi can only make the running game better.  Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor make a nice pair of WRs and the addition of Mike Wallace gives Wentz another weapon.  TE Zach Ertz became a favorite target last season and even though the team lost Trey Burton to free agency they replaced him with a very promising rookie Dallas Goedert.  The offensive line was one of the best in league last year and they should get a healthy Jason Peters back at LT.  When he’s healthy he’s arguably the best LT in the game.  Peters is 36 so he may not return to his previous form but either way the offensive line is an overall strength for the team.

The defense was impressive last season and while there are some changes to the personnel the unit will still be incredible.  They are built around a deep and talented defensive line.  DEs Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett and Chris Long are joined by Michael Bennett who replaces Vinny Curry.  DTs Fletcher Cox and Tim Jernigan are joined by veteran Haloti Ngata.  Ngata isn’t the dominant force he once was but as a third rotational tackle he should still be effective.  LB Jordan Hicks is coming back from an injury and he really needs to stay healthy as the team finally jettisoned perennial trade candidate Mychal Kendricks.  Nigel Bradham was the best LB on the team last year and he returns.  They need someone to step up as the third LB, Nate Gerry is penciled in right now but that could easily change.  At CB Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby are the starters but the team is hoping Sidney Jones can make a move after missing most of his rookie year with an injury.  If he’s healthy Jones is a serious talent.  The safety duo of Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod is one of the best in the league.  Corey Graham returns as a versatile veteran for the secondary.

Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl in his second season as a head coach, pulling off a feat his mentor Andy Reid couldn’t quite do in his time as the Eagles head coach.  Pederson had one of the best coaching staffs in the league last season and inevitably he lost some of his brain trust in the off season.  Offensive coordinator Frank Reich took the Colts head coaching job and QB coach John DeFilippo took the offensive coordinator job with the Vikings.  It’s now up to Mike Groh to run the offense and keep Carson Wentz’s career trajectory heading in the right direction.  Groh was the wide receivers’ coach and he’ll be helped by Assistant Head Coach/Running backs Duce Staley, he was the other finalist for promotion to coordinator.  Pederson was lucky enough to hold onto defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz which should help the defense continue its dominance.  The Eagles are the class of the NFC East and it’s hard to bet against them in a tough NFC.

Dallas Cowboys

The NFC East is much like the AFC East in the fact that one team (in this case the Eagles) looks much better than the rest of the division.  The Dallas offense is led by Dak Prescott.  Prescott had a passer rating of 104.9 in his rookie year while last season it dipped to 86.6.  The truth is he probably falls somewhere in between those numbers.  The problem is that without Dez Bryant and Jason Witten Prescott is going to need to raise his game to lift those around him or the passing game is going to suffer.  Bryant had lost a step but he was still a guy you had to account for and Witten was the most reliable pass catcher on the team for about 15 years.  It’s not just that they lost those two it’s the fact they didn’t do much to replace them.  WR Allen Hurns is nice possession receiver but he isn’t lighting up the scoreboard and Terrance Williams is a stretch as a good #2 WR, he certainly isn’t a #1.  They are placing a lot of hope on rookie Michael Gallup to be a playmaker.  That’s more than I can say for what they have at TE, which is a bunch of decent blockers.  That leads to the good news for the offense, RB Ezekiel Elliott isn’t facing a six-game suspension this year and the offensive line looks to be really strong.  Elliott is a work horse and he’ll get even more work this year.  The offensive line is hoping for a healthy season from Tyron Smith and if he does miss any time they won’t have to trot out Chaz Green in his place.  They signed Cameron Fleming as a free agent swing tackle and drafted Connor Williams to play LG, either one would make a better fill-in than Green did.  The rest of the line returns intact with C Travis Frederick and RG Zack Martin two of the best at their respective positions and RT La’el Collins looking to improve on an uneven season.  Collins has to prove himself or Fleming or Williams may come after his job.

The Cowboys defense was surprisingly good last season.  DE Demarcus Lawrence finally broke through last year starting every game and getting 14.5 sacks.  His reward was the franchise tag which he will play under this season.  It’s probably smart of the Cowboys not to invest long-term in Lawrence until he proves he can do it for more than one season.  The rest of the defensive line is solid if unspectacular.  Tyrone Crawford and Maliek Collins aren’t household names but they get the job done.  The team is getting Randy Gregory back after he missed multiple season with drug suspensions, counting on him is a risky proposition.  One guy to keep on eye on if they use him right as a pass rushing specialist is rookie Dorance Armstrong, he’s a little undersized but he can be effective.  At LB the team lost do-everything fill-in Anthony Hitchens and now they need Jaylon Smith’s talent to shine through, they need Sean Lee to stay healthy and they need rookie Leighton Vander Esch to live up to his potential quickly.  I think Smith could be dominant but those other two hopes might be a bit much to ask.  Lee has never played 16 games in his nine-year career and asking that at 32 years old is just crazy.  Vander Esch is an outstanding athlete but he was a one-year starter at Boise St so it’s going to take him some time to adjust.  The secondary has a new coach in Passing Game Coordinator/Defensive Backs coach Kris Richard, formerly the defensive coordinator in Seattle.  He has his work cut out for him.  They are moving safety Byron Jones to CB because Richard likes big corners (ala Richard Sherman).  That covers one hole in the secondary but creates another one at safety.  They hope one of the other CBs Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis or Anthony Brown can hold up on the other side.  Jeff Heath and Xavier Woods are the uninspiring pair at safety for now.  The constant rumor of the team trading for Seahawks safety Earl Thomas teases the Cowboys fans mercilessly.

The Cowboys lack the playmakers in the passing game on offense and the playmakers against the passing game on defense to compete with Philadelphia for the division.  Jason Garrett has somehow survived some lackluster years in Dallas but the leash has to be getting pretty short at this point.  The Cowboys might compete for a wild card spot and luckily for them both the Giants and Redskins have at least as many question marks as they do this season.  I’m not sure how much more patience Jerry Jones will have for Garrett but Garrett seems to let Jerry have his way without much pushback so perhaps Jerry just likes it that way and will continue to employ Garrett for as long as he can.

New York Giants

The Giants have a pretty good group of skill position players.  WRs Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard are a good pair, Evan Engram is a playmaker at TE and RB Saquon Barkley is a major addition and he can change the look of the offense.  The free agent signing of LT Nate Solder was a long overdue move to fix a continuing problem and the addition of LG Will Hernandez in the draft should solidify the left side of the line.  The rest of the line is still pretty suspect but the team is hoping moving Erick Flowers to RT actually works but he might be broken beyond repair.  This offense will come down to Eli Manning.  He hasn’t been good for a while now but he’s not really a bad QB yet either.  The question is whether this is the inevitable fall of an aging QB or was Ben McAdoo just that horrible of a choice as a coach.  The offensive line may fail Manning again and we might not get a real answer.  However, Pat Shurmur did a masterful job last year in Minnesota with a less than stellar offensive line and he made Case Keenum a legitimate starting QB in the NFL.  If anyone can jump start Manning’s career Shurmur is probably the best bet.

The defense has talent at all three levels the only question is how will it be used.  The Giants have been a 4-3 defense for quite some time but new defensive coordinator James Bettcher comes from Arizona and he will transition them to a 3-4 defense.  Bettcher has always had good defenses for the Cardinals but any time there is a switch it can have some growing pains.  The team will take its big-ticket free agent signing from last year DE Olivier Vernon and move him to OLB.  That move doesn’t always go so well just ask the LA Rams how it worked moving Robert Quinn last season (here’s a hint, they traded him in the off season).  The new three-man defensive line should be solid with Damon Harrison playing NT, a position he’s well-suited for, and rookie BJ Hill and second-year man Dalvin Tomlinson flanking him.  The LB position got an upgrade with an off season trade for Alec Ogletree from the Rams.  If Vernon can make the transition to OLB that takes care of one position.  The other will be manned at the moment by Kareem Martin with veteran Connor Barwin waiting in the wings.  The Giants haven’t been good at LB for a while so it’s interesting they are going to 4 LBs on the field.  The strength of the defense should be in the secondary.  Janoris Jenkins is a very good CB and if Eli Apple can get it together he has the physical tools to be a top-flight corner too.  The real strength is S Landon Collins.  He sets the tone and he’s one of the better safeties in the league.

This team needed a restart on the coaching staff and new head coach Pat Shurmur is as good of a fresh start as Manning, Beckham and the rest of the offense could have hoped for.  I’m not certain new offensive coordinator Mike Shula is a perfect choice but this will be Shurmur’s offense not Shula’s.  Defensive coordinator James Bettcher is a proven tactician and if the players buy into his system it should work.  The new scheme might make certain players uncomfortable and they may not all fit in but Bettcher knows how to call a defense.  No team this off season got a bigger upgrade with their new head coach than the Giants.  Shurmur over McAdoo is a game changer.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins made arguably the biggest move of the off season by changing out their QB.  After three pretty impressive seasons by Kirk Cousins the team let him walk in free agency after pulling off a trade for Alex Smith.  Smith had a career year last year in Kansas City throwing for over 4000 yards but he’s 34 years old and the Chiefs traded him away to go with a guy with one career start.  Smith has never been a franchise QB and I doubt at 34 he’s going to miraculously morph into one.  The team took a major hit in the preseason when rookie RB Darrius Guice tore his ACL and will now miss the season.  Guice was a steal in the second round of the draft after he fell for some strange reason.  In what can only be called a panic move the Redskins signed Adrian Peterson hoping to catch lightning in a bottle one last time.  Considering the other options are Rob Kelley, Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson I can’t say I blame them but I’m not jumping on the bandwagon either.  Thompson might still be the most effective weapon in the backfield.  The team needs Josh Doctson to take the next step in his development and become a #1 caliber WR.  Jamison Crowder is a nice weapon as a slot receiver but he shouldn’t be the focal point of the passing game.  Free agent Paul Richardson brings speed from Seattle but not a lot of production.  The best weapon on offense is TE Jordan Reed but he has to be healthy and he’s never played an entire 16 game schedule in his career.  LT Trent Williams is a star when he’s playing but he was injured a bit last season and they have no one to step into his place.  RG Brandon Scherff and RT Morgan Moses make a solid right side.  The LG and C spots are the question marks with a bunch of unproven guys fighting for the jobs.

The Redskins defense was pretty awful against the run last season and they are hoping a healthy season from last year’s rookie Jonathan Allen and this year’s top pick Da’Ron Payne will remedy a lot of that.  Allen and Payne are former Alabama teammates and they bring serious talent to the front line.  The team brought back all four LBs and they are hoping the healthy return of Mason Foster inside will also help against the run.  ILB Zach Brown was the rock of the defense last year while OLBs Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith are the edge rushers.  The team signed veteran Pernell McPhee to add depth and they are hoping for more out of second year man Ryan Anderson.  The secondary is led by CB Josh Norman but he just turned 30 and his play slipped a bit last season.  Quinton Dunbar is the other starter but they are hoping Fabian Moreau or one of the other young CBs can push him for the job.  Montae Nicholson and DJ Swearinger are the starting safeties and while no one is going to mistake them for superstars they hold their own.

Jay Gruden has some how survived Dan Gilbert and is entering his fifth season as head coach of the Redskins, no one could have predicted that.  This season will test him with Alex Smith taking over at QB. Smith is steady but he isn’t dynamic and neither is this offense unless Josh Doctson morphs into Julio Jones.  This team can be solid if the offensive line gets straightened out inside and if the defense can stop anyone from running them over.  In a division that has the Super Bowl Champs with Jay Ajayi behind a great line, the Cowboys offensive line blocking for Ezekiel Elliott and the Giants trotting out Saquon Barkley, run defense is going to be a major issue.  I think they struggle a bit which is why I have them finishing fourth in the division.