There’s a pretty good chance this won’t be my only mock draft but here’s what I have so far.  I reserve the right to change this and I guarantee I will.  I also reserve the right to be wrong over and over again but that’s only because NFL teams are not as smart as I am.  If every team listened to me and did what I told them to do in the draft they could all lose in the Super Bowl to the Patriots.  By the way, Bill Belichick is actually not great at this drafting thing but what he is great at is taking former 1st round picks other teams are misusing and using them correctly.  Here we go…mock draft 1.0.

2019 NFL Mock Draft

1. Arizona Cardinals (3-13): Nick Bosa DE   Ohio St.

The Cardinals are an interesting team as they head into year 2 with Josh Rosen and year 1 of new coach Kliff Kingsbury.  It’s not often a guy gets fired from his alma mater and ends up getting a head coaching job in the NFL, actually that never happens.  Kingsbury is known for his high-flying offense but his downfall at Texas Tech was his lack of defense.  He hired Vance Joseph to run his defense so he has the best defensive coordinator he’s ever worked with on his side now.  The Cardinals are lucky they don’t need a QB because there isn’t one worth taking here so they can go with the best player in the draft and that just happens to be Bosa.  The younger brother of Chargers DE Joey Bosa is a prospect on the same level as his brother so the Cardinals are getting a good one.  The only question will be with his medicals as he missed almost the entire season after an abdominal surgery.  He should be fine and as long as everything checks out, he’s basically a lock for the #1 pick.  The team really needs help on the offensive line but there just isn’t an elite player at that position.  There are some mock drafts putting Josh Allen here because he’s a better fit in the 3-4 scheme the team is looking to use but that would be a case of overthinking it.  You don’t draft for fit with the #1 pick, take the best player and put him in a position to succeed.

2. San Francisco 49ers (4-12): Josh Allen OLB   Kentucky

Allen was a likely 1^st rounder last year who came back for his senior year and absolutely dominated for the Wildcats.  He showed elite pass rushing skills from the OLB spot while also being a complete player.  There’s a little Khalil Mack to what he can do.  The 49ers have spent a number of high first round picks on defensive linemen lately (Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner and Solomon Thomas) but none of them have proven to be elite playmakers.  Perhaps adding Allen’s playmaking ability will be the key to unlocking the talent of those other guys (the 49ers can only hope).  Allen bends the edge and gets to the QB better than anyone in the draft not named Bosa.  His versatility will be useful for a 49ers team that needs as much help on defense as they can get.  There is a lot of excellent talent in this draft but there are not a ton of elite playmakers and Allen is one of the few.

3. New York Jets (4-12): Quinnen Williams DT   Alabama

The Jets are starting over with a new coaching staff and 2^nd year QB Sam Darnold.  They have a few nice building blocks on defense (Jamal Adams, Leonard Williams, Darron Lee) but plenty of holes to fill.  Darnold needs more talent around him on offense although the team likes Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa at WR.  This is all to say the team needs help almost everywhere so they can take the best player available and that would be Quinnen Williams.  Williams wasn’t even on anyone’s radar going into the season as he was stepping into the very large shoes of Da’Ron Payne at Alabama.  All Williams did was step in and dominate his competition.  He’s a beast inside and a wrecking machine in the backfield.  Quinnen Williams would pair nicely with Leonard Williams to give new defensive coordinator Greg Williams (I swear I didn’t make up the Williams connections just for fun) a nice front to build behind.

4. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Clelin Ferrell DE   Clemson

Defensive linemen and pass rushers especially dominate this draft and as Jon Gruden admitted it’s hard to find good ones.  Ferrell isn’t in the same class as Bosa or Allen in terms of his ceiling and he’s still a bit raw but clearly the Raiders are taking the long-term approach to their rebuild and Ferrell is a long, lean pass rusher with real upside.  He played on a talented line at Clemson and he still stood out.  The Raiders need a lot of help all over but this is a bit too high to take a WR or RB unless someone really steps up.  The value is on the defensive line and while the team could take a guy like Ed Oliver, he may be a bit too similar to Maurice Hurst whom they drafted last year.  If Dexter Lawrence makes a move up the board, he might be a better complement to Hurst but like Gruden said, it’s hard to find pass rushers so taking Ferrell seems like a solid move.  Whatever Gruden thinks he should really listen to Mike Mayock.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Greedy Williams CB   LSU

This pairing makes too much sense not to happen.  Bruce Arians is coming in to fix Jameis Winston and the Bucs offense and he has some good pieces to work with (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard).  It’s the defense that needs some personnel upgrades.  New defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is an excellent defensive mind and one thing he’ll notice right away is the need for new CBs.  Brent Grimes is unlikely to return and Vernon Hargreaves isn’t cut out to play on the outside.  Williams is a bit raw but Bowles is an excellent teacher and he’ll develop Williams into a top CB.  It’s possible this team wants to upgrade on the offensive line or grab a new RB but defense seems like the most likely avenue for a quick improvement.

6. New York Giants (5-11): Dwayne Haskins QB   Ohio St.

Too many people focus on the fact that the Giants passed on a QB last year and aren’t focused on the fact that they drafted the Offensive Rookie of the Year Saquon Barkley and he’s a difference maker for the offense.  The team does need to find Eli Manning’s eventual replacement and Haskins is the best QB prospect available.  He will need some time which is fine because Manning can still hold down the fort.  None of what the Giants do will matter if they don’t continue to address the offensive line too.  Haskins is the right choice here but this team needs to either draft offensive linemen or sign some offensive linemen before they truly get better.  A defensive lineman like Ed Oliver or Rashan Gary is a possibility but I don’t see them passing on a QB again.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Ed Oliver DT   Houston

I’m operating under the assumption the Jaguars will sign a veteran QB given this team still thinks it has a current window to compete given their veteran roster.  Nick Foles is the obvious choice given his connection to new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo but he’s not the only option, Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater are viable choices.  If they fix the QB position through free agency or trade then that leaves a lot of possibilities for the draft.  Operating under the same “win-now” philosophy means they should go for a most impactful option.  Oliver is a major talent who was slowed a bit by injury this year but he’s an impact interior lineman.  The team has an aging defensive line that is getting expensive (Calais Campbell, Marcel Dareus and Malik Jackson) and could use some reinforcements.  Oliver has been compared to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, that’s high praise for sure.  He may not be Donald but he’ll make a difference.

8. Detroit Lions (6-10): Montez Sweat DE   Mississippi St.

The Lions have plenty of work to do on their roster but the most important position of need is defensive end.  The team didn’t generate a lot of pass rush even with Ezekiel Ansah and they may lose him in free agency.  Sweat is a guy that has lots of athletic gifts but still needs refinement.  He looked good at the Senior Bowl and he has some versatility that Matt Patricia should really like.  Generating more pass rush would help take some pressure off the secondary and improve the defense overall.  Sweat isn’t the biggest DE as he’s still a bit long and lean but he’ll be a difference maker immediately even if it’s just as a pass rusher.

9. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Jonah Williams OT   Alabama

This pick could very well be Rashan Gary given the fact that long-time DT Kyle Williams announced his retirement this year but I think the smarter move is to take an offensive lineman.  After investing their 1^st round pick last year in their QB Josh Allen it’s probably a good idea to get him some protection.  The Bills offensive line isn’t great and having a less-than-stellar offensive line in front of an inexperienced starter makes your offensive pretty inconsistent.  Allen has a big arm and the team should find a way to allow him to use it which means giving him more time in the pocket.  Williams probably isn’t a Pro Bowl OT but he’s a solid starter.  He has less than ideal measurables (mostly he has somewhat short arms) but he started at LT at Alabama so he’s pretty good.  The Bills starting OTs are Dion Dawkins and Jordan Mills so no matter what Williams is an upgrade.

10. Denver Broncos (6-10): Jeffrey Simmons DT   Mississippi St.

Somehow, I don’t think John Elway has the guts to pull the trigger on a first round QB this year.  The two QBs he’s drafted early were Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch, I would be scared to try it again too.  The team needs to get younger on defense and DT Domata Peko is 34 years old so that’s a good place to start.  Simmons has off the field issues but unfortunately, I don’t think that’s going to stop a team from taking him early.  Simmons is a beast on the field and he will be a major disruptive force on the interior of the defensive line.  That would make life that much easier on edge rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb.  Simmons will stuff the run and collapse the pocket for the Broncos defense and he’ll be a long-term running mate for Chubb, assuming he stays out of trouble.

11. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10): Devin White LB   LSU

The Bengals are a bit of a wildcard because they could go a number of ways.  With a new coaching staff, after the long tenure of Marvin Lewis, led by youngster Zac Taylor the team could look for a complete reboot and take a QB like Kyler Murray or Drew Lock.  I’m not sure the ownership group is looking for a complete rebuild given the presence of veterans like AJ Green, Cordy Glenn and a number of defenders.  It may come down to how Taylor feels moving forward at QB with Andy Dalton.  Devin White would fill a major need as an athletic LB the defense desperately needs.  With Vontaze Burfict coming off another concussion the team needs a playmaker at the position.  White is fast and athletic and is just the type of new age LB the defense could really use.

12. Green Bay Packers (6-9-1): Jachai Polite DE/OLB   Florida

Clay Matthews is a 32-year-old soon-to-be free agent whose production has dropped off considerably over the past several years and Nick Perry is an overpaid player who can’t seem to stay healthy, to say the Packers need new blood at OLB is an understatement.  Polite really emerged this season and he’s a prototypical OLB who would seriously upgrade the Packers pass rush.  The team could use some help at TE as Jimmy Graham isn’t getting any younger and the offensive line needs depth as they consistently fight injury there.  Polite isn’t the only potential OLB, Brian Burns from FSU could be the pick, but Polite probably fits Mike Pettine’s defense just a little bit better.

13. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Cody Ford OL   Oklahoma

Reports are saying that the Dolphins intend to rebuild but they want to wait until 2020 to look for a new QB when the QB draft class will likely include Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm and Justin Herbert.  That means building for the future and drafting a versatile offensive lineman like Ford would be smart.  The team’s RT Ju’Wuan James is a free agent and Ford could fill that spot or he could move inside to OG.  Either way he makes for a solid foundational offensive line piece with LT Laremy Tunsil for whenever the team takes a QB.  Ford is a massive player and while his 6’4 frame doesn’t look like a classic OT he can play there or he’ll be a dominant force on he interior.

14. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Rashan Gary DL   Michigan

This may be too low for Gary but with the talent at defensive line in this draft and Gary being a bit of a tweener he could fall a little.  It’s not clear to everyone if Gary is a DE or a DT and while that versatility can be a good thing it also might leave teams finding value with other players that are more established at their positions.  Gary is a talent and he would be good insurance in case the Falcons lose Grady Jarrett in free agency but even if they resign Jarrett, he could use some help on he inside.  Gary would be a moveable piece on the defensive line for Dan Quinn and the Falcons would be happy to have him.

15. Washington Redskins (7-9): Kyler Murray QB   Oklahoma

The Redskins are in an odd position, they were supposed to be built around Alex Smith being their QB for the next few seasons but his broken leg and subsequent infection complicate things.  Smith isn’t young and so he would eventually have to be replaced.  It’s possible owner Daniel Snyder will decide to change course and go with the trendy QB pick and take Murray.  I understand the fascination with Murray’s playmaking ability but I think teams are talking themselves into his viability as an NFL QB.  At his size he’s going to have issues surviving in the NFL and trying to compare him to Russell Wilson or Baker Mayfield is a bad comparison.  I’m not a fan but someone in the first round will be and I can totally see that team being the Redskins.

16. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Brian Burns DE   Florida St.

The Panthers could address either their offensive or defensive lines.  C Ryan Kalil is retiring and DE Julius Peppers just announced his retirement meaning two stalwarts in Carolina need to be replaced.  The offensive line needs more than just a center so any of the positions could come into play.  At DE the loss of Peppers hurts more than losing a 38-year-old player should.  This team is devoid of difference makers at DE and Burns represents the best pass rusher left on the board.  Burns isn’t big but he has an explosiveness none of the Panthers other DEs have so he would be a welcome addition.  The run on defensive linemen continues and there are more to come.  If the Panthers do decide to go offensive line OTs Jawaan Taylor or Greg Little would be solid choices.

17. Cleveland Browns (7-8-1): Jawaan Taylor OT   Florida

The Browns may have seemed fine trotting out Desmond Harrison and then Greg Robinson at LT last year but with the investment in draft capital they spent on QB Baker Mayfield and RB Nick Chubb it’s worth getting them some talent to run behind.  Taylor is a little raw but he has all the athleticism you need to be a top-notch LT and he would solidify a really solid offensive line.  It’s possible the Browns grab an outside receiver to help Mayfield’s progression but so far, no WRs have gone and the position is deep so they can get a good one later.

18. Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1): Greg Little OT   Ole Miss

Somehow a very talented Vikings team only won 8 games last season.  The move from Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins didn’t pay the dividends the team expected when they shelled out $84 million for their new QB.  The running game took a hit when Dalvin Cook wasn’t healthy and the offensive line never really looked all that settled.  It’s time for the team to invest some premium draft capital on the offensive line and Greg Little is well worth the investment.  He looks like a prototypical LT and while Riley Reiff is still serviceable, he missed some games last year with injury and he’s on the wrong side of 30.  They could look for some more punch at DT but I think their top priority should be protecting their QB investment and getting their running game going, that means addressing the offensive line.

19. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Noah Fant TE   Iowa

With Brian Orakpo announcing his retirement and Derrick Morgan likely moving on it’s completely possible the team looks for a pass rushing OLB to pair with Harold Landry moving forward.  However, TE Delanie Walker missed all but one game last year and Marcus Mariota struggled, those two things are not mutually exclusive.  Jonnu Smith was supposed to step in but he was ineffective and then he got injured.  The team has a lot invested in Mariota and he needs a security blanket.  Fant is an athletic freak who will give Mariota a dangerous target over the middle or down the seam.  Even if Walker comes back healthy Fant might be a better bet as the young TE to eventual replace him instead of Smith.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1): Deandre Baker CB   Georgia

The Steelers have needed CBs for as long as I can remember.  They traded for Joe Haden and he had a good year but former 1^st round pick Artie Burns has been a disappointment.  The two best CBs after Greedy Williams are Baker and Byron Murphy.  Murphy is young, inexperienced and needs to physically mature, he reminds me a lot of Artie Burns so I’m going the other way.  Baker isn’t as athletically gifted but he’s experienced and has more refined coverage skills and the Steelers don’t need another guy they have to develop in the secondary, last year’s 1^st round safety Terrell Edmunds is enough.  Baker can step in opposite Haden and hold his own.

21. Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Zach Allen DE   Boston College

I would expect the Seahawks to do everything they have to do to bring Frank Clark back given he is the only real pass rusher they have.  Even if they re-sign Clark, they need some help opposite him and a little more pressure from the other side would make Clark more effective.  Allen is a big DE at 6’5 285 lbs. so he can really set the edge but he also has a number of pass rushing moves that make him effective coming off the edge.  The Seahawks could go offensive line but Allen is better value than the offensive linemen left at this point.

22. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): D.K. Metcalf WR   Ole Miss

The Ravens completely revamped their WR corps last offseason with the additions of Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead.  Now Crabtree is a likely cap casualty and Brown’s season was going well with Joe Flacco but once Lamar Jackson took over it went in the tank.  Brown is a free agent who may look for an offense that suits him better.  They team needs some targets for Jackson and Metcalf is a big, rangy WR who can win the jump ball down the field.  Jackson isn’t the most accurate passer so a guy with a wide catch radius would help him a lot.

23. Houston Texans (11-5): Andre Dillard OT   Washington St.

The Texans won 11 games and their division and they did it with arguably the worst starting OT duo in the league.  Dillard is a pass blocking specialist given the fact he played for Mike Leach at Washington St. and they Texans gave up over 60 sacks so he fills a major need.  He had a great Senior Bowl week and it really opened some eyes and likely thrust him into the first round of the draft.  If the team wants to keep Deshaun Watson healthy for the long-term, they have to address their offensive line.  They really should draft more than one offensive lineman in this draft, I’d shoot for three if I were them.

24. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago): Deionte Thompson S   Alabama

I gave the Raiders their pass rusher to start but they have two late picks here at #24 and again at #27.  They have plenty of needs and while a lot of the talk is about them needing a WR, RB, LB or a DT one thing that gets missed is their need at safety.  Karl Joseph rebounded at the end of the year at SS but Reggie Nelson is a 35-year-old who ended the season on IR and is a free agent.  If Thompson falls this far in the first round the Raiders would be crazy to pass on him.  He should go in the top 15 but safety sometimes gets devalued and with all the great defensive linemen in this draft he may fall a bit.  Thompson is a difference maker and the Raiders need as many of those as they can get their hands on.

25. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): Dalton Risner OT   Kansas St.

The Eagles are going to have plenty of needs this offseason.  They need help at CB although Avonte Maddux playing well at the end of the year helps.  They have three free agent WRs; Golden Tate, Jordan Matthews, and Mike Wallace, which will leave them pretty thin at the position.  One of their bigger concerns is keeping Carson Wentz healthy so finding help on the offensive line is imperative.  With LT Jason Peters having a hard time staying healthy at his advanced age grabbing Risner would be wise.  Risner can’t replace Peters at LT but he is a starting RT which would allow the team to move Lane Johnson to the left side.  This team is going to be in a bit of a transition as some of the salary cap issues come upon them so we will see some veterans leave and the team needs to have a solid draft to replace those players.

26. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Dexter Lawrence DT   Clemson

The Colts were a complete surprise to me as their offensive line played far better than I thought they would once they got healthy and the defense stepped up big.  Having Andrew Luck really changed the dynamic on offense as he makes quicker decisions and puts the offense in a better position to make plays.  The defense was led by defensive rookie of the year LB Darius Leonard and second year MLB Anthony Walker played great too.  The Colts should look to build around those two and grabbing a massive DT like Lawrence who can help keep them clean and allow them to make plays seems like a great idea.  Lawrence is a 6’4 350 lbs. monster who will eat up blockers and let Walker and Leonard run free all day.  He missed the college football playoffs due to a failed PED test but I don’t think that’s going to deter teams from drafting him unless they find other red flags in his background.

27. Oakland Raiders (from Dallas): N’Keal Harry WR   Arizona St.

The pick the Raiders got from Dallas is this low because Dallas won seven of their last eight games largely because they got Amari Cooper in a trade with the Raiders for this first round pick.  After trading Cooper, the Raiders were heavily reliant on Jordy Nelson at WR and he’s 33 so that’s not a solid long-term plan.  Harry has some work to do but he’s 6’4 213 lbs. and he knows how to get open and make plays.  Even is they get another good year out of Nelson it would really help Derek Carr to have a second option to throw to from time to time.  This pick could be another defensive player but something tells me Gruden would like to get some help on offense.

28. Los Angeles Chargers (12-4): Christian Wilkins DT   Clemson

The Chargers were missing Corey Luiget for most the season and Brandon Mebane is a free agent so DT is certainly a need position.  Wilkins isn’t the flashy DT name like Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, Jeffrey Simmons or Dexter Lawrence but he might just end up being the best of them all.  He’s been a stalwart of Clemson’s fantastic defensive line for the last several years and he’s simply an excellent player.  He might have the longest career of any of the defensive linemen in this draft and the Chargers would do well to have such a steady presence lining up inside on their defensive line.  Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram would welcome a guy that brings it on every play and allows them to do their thing from the outside.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): Byron Murphy CB Washington

If the Chiefs don’t spend every draft pick they have on defensive players than Andy Reid should be sued for malpractice by their fans.  The offense was one for the ages and even after dumping their star RB Kareem Hunt, they continued to be great.  The defense was continually the problem and it’s the reason they didn’t go farther.  I can’t image they will let Dee Ford walk as a free agent but whether he returns or not they could use another pass rushing OLB but the value isn’t there at this point.  Murphy is still young and has some maturing to do but he’s better than most of their CBs.  They really just need to draft whomever they deem the best defender on the board so that could be DT Dre’Mont Jones, CB Amani Oruwariye, S Jonathan Abram or someone else.  They need help almost everywhere on defense.

30. Green Bay (from New Orleans): Deebo Samuel WR   South Carolina

After bring in some young guys last season it may not seem like the Packers need another WR especially with Devante Adams established as the #1 guy.  However, Randall Cobb is a free agent and he may price himself out of Green Bay.  They have the big WR position handled with Geronimo Allison at 6’3, Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 6’4 and Equanimeous St. Brown at 6’5.  If they lose Cobb, they won’t have the guy who can make plays in the slot.  Samuel will excel as slot receiver and he also can move outside when needed.  He brings all the versatility of Cobb at a much more reasonable price.  Samuel missed some time coming off an injury but he absolutely shined at the Senior Bowl and this may actually be too low of a spot for him.

31. Los Angeles Rams (13-3): David Edwards OT   Wisconsin

The Rams shared the best regular season record with the Saints last year and while it was controversial, they beat the Saints to make the Super Bowl.  Clearly, the team is doing something right the problem is they signed Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks and Aaron Donald to massive contract extensions and eventually they will have to pay Jared Goff.  That means some belt tightening elsewhere.  LT Andrew Whitworth is contemplating retirement and that would be a huge loss but OG Roger Saffold is also a free agent and he might not want to take a pay cut to stick around.  Either way the Rams need some reinforcements on the offensive line.  Edwards is a big, powerful and sound OT who isn’t the most athletic OT around, that’s pretty much the definition of Andrew Whitworth at LT.  It hasn’t seemed to stop Whitworth from excelling in the Rams scheme and they have had success with another former Badger OT Rob Havenstein at RT so Edwards would be a solid addition.

32. New England Patriots (11-5): TJ Hockenson TE   Iowa

I love this pick for so many reasons.  1. The Patriots are picking 32^nd because they won another Super Bowl. 2. TJ Hockenson is a fantastic Hawkeye and it’s always nice when the Pats have Hawkeyes I can cheer on. 3. I truly believe Rob Gronkowski is going to retire and Tom Brady needs a playmaker to replace him because he just shouldn’t have to rely on Julian Edelman any more than he already is.  This is the perfect marriage of great value, need and perfect fit.  One of Gronkowski’s most underrated parts of his game is just how devastating of a blocker he is and Hockenson can be a great playmaker and also a dominate blocker.  The only way this doesn’t happen is if Hockenson goes earlier in the 1^st round, which is totally possible.

 

 

 

Over the past couple of years, I have been a little too busy to be as up to date on the Iowa Hawkeyes recruiting classes and haven’t spent much time watching their videos but this year, I did actually have time so I have some thoughts on this latest class.  The 2019 class had 20 signees in the early signing period and while they may still add a couple more recruits come February this is the bulk of the class and I have to say I’m pretty impressed.  There are three major recruiting services and I’m usually partial to Rivals but this year I have to respectfully disagree with some of their rankings of Iowa’s recruits.  According to Rivals Iowa has no 4-star recruits and I simply think they have misjudged some of Iowa’s signees.  There are also the standard developmental guys that Iowa will turn into future NFL draft picks and as always, some guys that won’t make it at the Big Ten level.

The Guys I Think Should Be 4-Stars

RB Tyler Goodson – I’m not sure what keeps Goodson from earning his fourth star but this kid is good.  He has homerun ability and at 5’10 and just over 190 lbs. he’s a well-built RB.  He has straight line speed but what most impresses me is his ability to move laterally and yet not lose his speed moving forward.  His jump cut is as impressive as Akrum Wadley except he already has more size.  While the Hawkeyes have three RBs that all played significant snaps this season Goodson is good enough to get actual carries next season and he might be a better all-around back than any of the three already on the depth chart.  I’m not trying to knock those guys I’m just saying Goodson is impressive.

LB Jestin Jacobs – Jacobs is a LB from Ohio who committed to Iowa fairly early and stuck with the Hawkeyes despite a late push by Ohio St. to steal him away.  It’s not often Iowa goes head-to-head with the Buckeyes for a recruit and it’s even less often they actually come out on top.  For Iowa to come out on top for a guy from Ohio is pretty impressive.  Jacobs is a type of new age LB, he’s long, lean and athletic and I think he will excel in coverage.  Normally I would say at 210 lbs. he needs to add size to play LB in the Big Ten but given the fact that Iowa lined up Amani Hooker at LB for a large portion of the season if Jacobs picks up the defense, I think he could find early playing time.  Iowa returns a lot of guys that got playing time (Kristian Welch, Nick Niemann, Djimon Colbert, Barrington Wade, and Amani Jones) not to mention youngsters Dillon Doyle, Seth Benson, Jayden McDonald and Logan Klemp.  It won’t be easy for Jacobs to climb over all of those guys but he certainly can, he has that kind of talent.

OT Ezra Miller – Miller isn’t the “dancing bear” type of athlete that most high-level OT recruits are but this kid is a mauler.  At 6’6 310 lbs. he’s already the size of a Big Ten OT and he has the physicality to play early.  He needs work on his technique and his flexibility but those are things he’ll get better at and he’ll get great coaching.  Miller is a monster and while he may not play early, I wouldn’t be surprised if he did and he’s going to be a good one.  This isn’t a guy the Hawkeyes have to turn into an OT, he was born one.

TE Logan Lee – Does anyone really want to doubt the Iowa coaches on TE prospects?  The only way Logan Lee doesn’t become an All-American TE is if he changes positions.  He’s 6’5 240 lbs. and he could end up a DE or potentially an OT.  He has the frame to carry more weight but starting out he’s a TE.  As big and aggressive as he is, he could be devastating blocker at the position and he’s an excellent pass catcher.  He’s not the only TE in this class that could become an All-Conference or All-American player he’s just the best one coming in.

These four guys are good enough to be considered 4-Star players in my opinion and Iowa is lucky to have them, however, the good news doesn’t stop there.

3 Guys That Look Like Guys Iowa Already Has (or Had)

S Sebastian Castro – If anyone in this class is going to eventually step into the very versatile shoes of Amani Hooker it’s Castro.  He’s an underrated safety prospect that has played QB, RB and DB and is a leader on his team.  He’s a playmaker in the defensive backfield just like Hooker was in high school and he’s not afraid to lay a guy out when he has the chance.  Castro has flown under the radar but he’s a guy Hawkeye fans are going to love.  With the graduation of Jake Gervase and the prospect of Hooker playing his hybrid position even more going forward the Hawkeyes are going to need someone to pair with Geno Stone at the safety position.  There are a couple of young guys like Kaevon Merriweather and Dallas Craddieth that will have a shot and depending on how things look at CB either Julius Brents or Riley Moss could potentially play safety too but Castro is going to make a push to get playing time and it’s going to be sooner rather than later.

C Justin Britt – Britt is the interior line prospect the Hawkeyes stole out of Indianapolis and he’s a top prospect at C.  Britt reminds me of James Daniels and that’s high praise because Daniels was one of the most naturally gifted C prospects I’ve ever seen.  Kirk Ferentz talked in his press conference and in interviews about how much Britt understood about the position already and how impressed he was by that, add knowledge to his instincts and that’s a scary combo.  Britt tore his ACL during his senior year and he’s almost assuredly going to redshirt next year and he won’t play unless there is a massive injury bug that hits the offensive line.  However, he’s got a shot to play some OG a year later and he’s eventually the guy who should take over at C.

TE Sam LaPorta – LaPorta was a late offer in the recruiting process after the Hawkeyes decided to go after a 3^rd TE (Logan Lee and Josiah Miamen were the first two TE commits).  LaPorta was a record setting receiver in Illinois and while he needs some time to fill out that is also the path of current Mackey award winner TJ Hockenson.  Hockenson was a record setting receiver in Iowa before he came to the Hawkeyes, redshirted and grew into his body a bit and now in his third year he’s dominating.  LaPorta looks like another underappreciated prospect that could really develop into a weapon and something tells me the Hawkeyes aren’t going to feel the need to go away from their two TE offense any time soon.

The Rest of the O-Line Class

Miller and Britt are the two offensive linemen I’m most impressed with but that doesn’t mean I don’t like the other two guys.  Noah Fenske and Tyler Endres are a couple of big Iowa boys the Hawkeyes will team with Miller and Britt to make a dominant line in the future.  Fenske is 6’5 280 lbs. while Endres is 6’6 305 lbs.  I mentioned that Logan Lee could end up at OT, truth be told if he doesn’t move there it may have as much to do with not needed him there as anything else.  Iowa has never needed highly rated recruits to make a dominant offensive line and I like the potential of these four to make a big difference in the future.

The LBs

Jacobs isn’t the only LB to get excited about.  Jack Campbell is a LB out of Cedar Falls and he’s the type of player that makes it look like there’s five of him on the field at once because he’s everywhere.  He never seems to be out of a play and he’s always in on the tackle.  Yahweh Jeudy was a late steal out of Florida who was committed to Kansas St. but with the coaching change a door was open and the Hawkeyes took advantage.  He looks like very natural tackler and he has great explosion to the ball.  Both of these guys add to that long list of LB on the roster (Welch, Wade, Niemann, Colbert, Jones, Doyle, Benson, Klemp and McDonald).  This may seem like a like of LBs but the truth is getting guys who are 6’2-6’5 and are anywhere from 215 lbs. to 245 lbs. gives a team a lot of options.  With some of the position switches already happening during bowl prep for the Hawkeyes some of these guys could end up elsewhere.  A guy like Campbell has a frame that could be turned into a DE while someone else may end up at fullback, DT or TE (hey, Dallas Clark was once a LB).

The TEs

I already mentioned both Logan Lee and Sam LaPorta but there is another (I just said that in my best Yoda voice).  Josiah Miamen is not to be forgotten.  He’s a heck of an athlete with good hands and good size and he lined up out wide plenty in high school.  He’s a playmaker and while I would guess he’ll need some work on his inline blocking he has the size and strength to excel at it.  The last time the Hawkeyes brought in three TEs in one class was three years ago when they got Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson and Shaun Beyer.  We haven’t seen much out of Beyer yet (mostly due to injury and having Fant and Hockenson in front of him) but that worked out pretty well.  One guy is a likely first round NFL draft pick as an early entry this year and the other is the Mackey Award winner as the best TE in college football.  It seems like those two things should be one in the same but the actually aren’t.  Lee, LaPorta and Miamen replenish the depth at TE after the team lost Noah Fant to the NFL and lost Jacob Coons last spring when he quit football.

The Defensive Line

The Hawkeyes got two DEs Jake Karchinski and Chris Reames along with one DT Jalen Hunt.  Karchinski is almost always described as relentless, it’s as if it’s part of his name.  Reames seems to fit the mold of guy like Anthony Nelson as a tall, lean DE, he’s 6’7.  Hunt is quick in the interior and should be a terror inside.  With the recent moves of Tyler Linderbaum and Austin Schulte to the offensive line from DT and DE respectively, these three guys add young depth.  They will all likely have to wait their turn and will probably redshirt but they all have potential.

The Defensive Backs

I already said how much I like Sebastian Castro and he’s going to have a couple of running mates in the backfield with him from this class.  Dane Belton and Daraun McKinney are both CB prospects with upside.  Belton is listed at 6’1 so he brings good length to the position.  McKinney is the late add to the class that has become a common occurrence as defensive coordinator Phil Parker seems to always have a guy like this he likes.  McKinney is being compared to Desmond King because like King he was a late offer just before signing day, he’s from Michigan and he’s an excellent return man.  If he’s anywhere near King’s level he’ll be a heck of a Hawkeye.

The QB

The Hawkeyes like to take a QB in every class and this year it was Alex Padilla out of Colorado.  Colorado isn’t one of the Hawkeyes usual recruiting territories but for a QB they made an exception.  Last year they got Spencer Petras from California, another rare recruiting ground and now it’s Padilla.  Initially, Padilla was not a highly recruited guy but that was probably because he’s only about 6’1, however, Georgia came in late with an offer but Padilla stuck with the Hawkeyes.  Given the fact that Georgia has had a run of 5-Star QB recruits over the past several years (Jacob Eason, Jake Fromm and Justin Fields) I would say that bodes pretty well for what the Hawkeyes are getting in Padilla.  Quarterbacks are one of the most unpredictable positions in recruiting but Padilla has a lot of good qualities and he should compete for the starting job when Nate Stanley graduates.

The Other RB

Goodson is the headliner but the team went after a second RB late in the process because of some depth issues, the transfer of Kyshaun Bryan and the fact that Samson Evans might be better off at another position.  Shadrick Byrd is a kid from Alabama that RB coach Derrick Foster made a connection with and after a late official visit he committed to the Hawks.  He looks like a depth piece to me and all we can really hope is he sticks around longer than the last Alabama RB Iowa took late in the process, Eric Graham.

A Lonely WR

Desmond Hutson is the lone WR recruit the Hawkeyes have at this point and I would assume the WR position would be a point of emphasis in the late signing period coming up in February.  The team spent a lot of time recruiting David Bell, a WR out of Indianapolis who also happened to be a teammate of Justin Britt.  Bell never took an official visit to Iowa and so they eventually moved on and offered Logan Wolf from Cedar Falls.  Wolf has chosen to stick to his original commitment to UNI where he will play football and basketball.  Hutson is a big-bodied WR who should be a nice red zone addition but I’m not sure he’s going to be much of a deep threat and the team needs someone to stretch the field.  WR recruiting has always been tough under Ferentz but with Hutson being the only addition in this class that puts some pressure on redshirt freshmen Tyrone Tracy Jr., Calvin Lockett, Nico Ragaini and potentially Samson Evans if he moves to WR.

Overall

I like what I see in this class.  The offensive line and the defensive front seven seemed to be priorities and that’s a good thing.  Iowa added playmakers at RB and TE and at the very least added good depth at QB.  The only point of contention is the WR group.  The Hawkeyes still struggle to find playmakers at WR and the hope is that Tyrone Tracy Jr can step in as a redshirt freshman next season and give Ihmir Smith-Marsette some help going deep.  Desmond Hutson can join Calvin Lockett as bigger targets like Brandon Smith but some has to take the top off the defense, I guess the Hawks are hoping TJ Hockenson sticks around another year to do that.

 

 

 

MVP Award

Contenders: QB Tom Brady, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Russell Wilson, RB Todd Gurley, RB Ezekiel Elliott

Sleeper: QB Deshaun Watson

Let’s be realistic this award is mostly likely going to a QB.  Brady has won three, Rodgers has won two and Wilson had a great year last year even though the Seahawks didn’t follow suit.  If he repeats his statistical season and the Seahawks are better he may pull off the win.  As far as RBs go Gurley and Elliott offer the best chance if it’s not a QB.  Gurley is the workhorse for one of the best teams in the league and if the Cowboys are going to be good it’s going to be on the shoulders of Elliott.  Watson is the sleeper candidate because he could really reverse the fortunes of the Texans.  If he plays well and they make the playoffs he’s going to get quite a few votes.

My pick: QB Aaron Rodgers

Coming back from an injury could be motivation for Rodgers.  Doing it without his favorite target Jordy Nelson won’t be easy but he has Devante Adams and Jimmy Graham he can rely on.  The Packers need him to play his best and I think he pulls off his third MVP trophy.

Offensive Player of the Year

The is basically the MVP consolation prize so it will be basically the same argument about the same guys but I think Gurley wins it.

Defensive Player of the Year

Contenders: DT Aaron Donald, LB Von Miller, DE Joey Bosa, DE/OLB Khalil Mack, LB Luke Kuechly, CB Jalen Ramsey

Sleeper: DE Myles Garrett

Pass rushers get the sexiest stats so Miller, Bosa and Mack have an advantage and Aaron Donald is the best interior pass rusher in the game.  He’s also the defending DPOY so he has that going for him.  Donald missed the preseason but he did that last year too and still won it.  He did just get his big pay day so perhaps he’s not as motivated as last season.  He also faces the burden of increased expectations.  Miller and Bosa are primed for huge seasons and if the Broncos or Chargers make major regular season runs they will be in the conversation.  Mack should be extra motivated this season even with his new contract in Chicago.  Proving an organization wrong by being absolutely dominating is a good way to prove a point.  Kuechly is the league’s most prolific tackling machine and I don’t think he’ll slow down as long as he stays healthy.  Ramsey made headlines by bashing certain offensive players in the off season but when you back it up like he does it’s hard to argue with him.  Garrett is the sleeper because he plays for a team that went 0-16 last year, however, he’s an extremely talented pass rusher and if he can push the Browns to substantial win total he will get some attention.

My pick:  OLB/DE Khalil Mack

Changing teams is going to set him back a little as he learns the Bears defense.  However, he can become a situational pass rusher rather quickly.  Lining up Mack as an OLB in Vic Fangio’s defense has to be one of the most frightening thoughts for QBs around the league.  Like I said his motivation is to shove it back in the Raiders’ face and I think he will do just that.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: RB Saquon Barkley, QB Sam Darnold, RB Royce Freeman, WR Michael Gallup, WR Christian Kirk

Sleeper: WR Anthony Miller

This is Barkley’s award to lose.  He’ll be the most used rookie this season and that’s a pretty good start on winning this award.  The other rookie RB that would have been used as much was Derrius Guice and he’s out for the year.  Darnold is the one rookie QB to win his starting job in Week 1 so he’s in the conversation. Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Jackson will all be backups to begin the season.  Royce Freeman will get a lot of work but Denver still has a couple of other backs to use too.  Michal Gallup may end up being the go-to WR on the Cowboys but I’m not sure that will be enough for him to win the award.  Kirk should be a nice complement to Larry Fitzgerald but his QB situation could hold him back.  Miller should be the starter opposite free agent Allen Robinson and he should get a lot of balls thrown his way, Taylor Gabriel was another free agent signing but Miller brings a more complete skill set.  Miller should pub up some really nice stats.

My pick: RB Saquon Barkley

I’m not crazy, he’s going to run away with this award.  I would have given Guice a fighting chance if he hadn’t gotten hurt.  For now, I’m not sure any of them really threaten Barkley for the award although if Darnold could get the Jets to say 8 wins he might deserve it more.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders:  LB Roquan Smith, S Derwin James, DE Bradley Chubb, LB Tremaine Edmunds, CB Donte Jackson

Sleepers: CB Josh Jackson, LB Jerome Baker

Roquan Smith may have gotten a late start due to a holdout but he’s still going to lead all rookies in tackles and likely be one of the league leaders overall.  Derwin James joins a very good secondary in LA that will allow him to play downhill and use his considerable skills.  Chubb gets to line up opposite Von Miller meaning he should face a lot of one-on-one blocking and he could have a big sack total.  Tremaine Edmunds will be the playmaker of the Bills defense but will they be good enough to get him the recognition.  Donte Jackson was a second-round draft pick and while he is undersized he walked into training camp and took a starting job like a boss.  He’s fast and he ups the talent level in the Panthers secondary.  Josh Jackson hasn’t officially ascended up the Packers depth chart but he had a very good preseason and the one thing you have to do to win this award is make plays.  Jackson is a natural ballhawk and whether he starts right away or not he will play plenty and make the most of his opportunities.  Baker is a deep sleeper in this group because he’s a later pick than all of them.  However, he did win a starting job in Miami and his skill set and speed make him a candidate to be highly productive.

My pick:  LB Roquan Smith

I really want to go with Josh Jackson and I think he could win it but Smith is in a great situation. The Bears defense got a shot in the arm with Khalil Mack and there will be a lot of attention on the Bears defense.  When Smith ends up in the top 5 in the league in tackles he’s going to win the award.

My Season Predictions

Playoffs Teams

NFC Division Winners

Minnesota

Philadelphia

Atlanta

LA Rams

NFC Wild Card Teams

Green Bay

New Orleans

AFC Division Winners

New England

Pittsburgh

Jacksonville

LA Chargers

AFC Wild Card Teams

Kansas City

Tennessee

NFC Championship Game: Minnesota vs. LA Rams

AFC Championship Game: New England vs. Jacksonville

Super Bowl Matchup: New England vs. Minnesota

Super Bowl Champion: New England Patriots (was there any ever doubt)

Oh and The Doggs win will another Fantasy Football Title (back-to-back!!!!!)

 

 

 

 

Atlanta Falcons

The team took a step back last season after making the Super Bowl the year before but the window is still wide open for them to make it back to the top of the conference.  QB Matt Ryan signed a long-term extension so he’s settled into the QB spot.  He may never be in the Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers sphere when it comes to all-time QBs but Ryan is damn good and he’s proven he can get them to the Super Bowl.  The team still has Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman at RB and they even added Ito Smith in the draft for some depth.  Julio Jones got a revised contract for the year to keep him happy for now.  WR Mohamed Sanu returns as his complement and they team drafted Calvin Ridley who should make for an excellent third WR.  TEs Austin Hooper and Logan Paulsen aren’t great but they do fine.  The offensive line has four stable positions with LT Jake Matthews, LG Andy Levitre, C Alex Mack and RT Ryan Schraeder, leaving only the RG spot as a little unsettled.  Wes Schweitzer started there last season but he’s dealing with an injury and the team signed veteran Brandon Fusco in the off season and he looks like he may have won the job outright.

The defense is young, fast, talented and returns almost everyone.  One the defensive line DT Terrell McClain is the only new starter from another team as he comes over from Washington.  He will line up next to the spectacular Grady Jarrett.  At DE Vic Beasley returns to wreak havoc and second-year man Takkarist McKinley will be the new starter opposite him.  McKinley was a pass rush specialist last season but this year he becomes the full-time starter.  The LB trio of De’Vondre Campbell, Deion Jones and Duke Riley return as starters.  They are young, they are fast and they make plays all over the field.  At CB Desmond Trufant is one of the more underappreciated players in the league.  He doesn’t put up big stats because teams generally avoid him.  That’s becoming harder to do as Robert Alford has proven to be pretty good and the team has a good nickel corner in Brian Poole.  In the draft they added a very good prospect in Isaiah Oliver which makes them four deep at CB.  SS Keanu Neal is a tackling machine and sometimes plays like an extra LB.  FS Ricardo Allen is solid and smart and while he just got an extension he better watch his back because Damontae Kazee is coming for his job.

Dan Quinn came to the Falcons a few years ago from Seattle and quickly transformed the team into a modern football franchise on the field.  He brought a defensive blueprint from the Seahawks of a fast, aggressive unit and he quickly built it.  He initially handed the keys to the offense to Kyle Shanahan and that worked well as he and Matt Ryan got the offense moving.  Last year the team had two new coordinators as Marquand Manuel took over the defense and Steve Sarkisian took over the offense.  While statistically both units were fine it was clear there were some bumps in the transition.  A second year together should help smooth out those bumps and this team has plenty of talent to compete in the NFC for conference supremacy.  The division won’t be easy as the Saints and Panthers both present formidable foes, I think Tampa is going to struggle a bit.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints offense still belongs to Drew Brees after all these years but now he’s surrounded by some of the best talent he’s ever had, and he’s had some good ones.  Offensive Rookie of the Year RB Alvin Kamara was a revelation last season and even though he shared the position with Mark Ingram it was Kamara who was the big playmaker.  Ingram is solid as a rock but he begins this season suspended for the first four weeks so the team will rely heavily on Kamara.  WR Michael Thomas is one of the best in the league and he’s Brees’ go-to receiver and big play threat in the passing game.  The team is hoping Cameron Meredith can become Thomas’ complement after they signed him as a restricted free agent in the off season.  He started the preseason slowly but looks like he’s finally recovered after missing last season with a torn ACL.  For now, veteran WR Ted Ginn is still holding down the other starting spot but Meredith could take it over fairly soon.  At TE the team is bringing back Benjamin Watson and hoping he has one more good year at 37 years old.  The line is solid with the underrated Terron Armstead at LT, Andrus Peat and Larry Warford at the OG spots, steady veteran Max Unger at C and last year’s first-round pick Ryan Ramczyk at RT.  If the line stays healthy they are good, if there are injuries the team might struggle as they don’t have a lot of depth.

The Saints defense has made a lot of progress over the last several years and last year they got a boost from some rookies in the secondary and some new blood at LB.  On the defensive line DE Cameron Jordan became an All-Pro and really led the way.  Alex Okafor was having a good season before he was injured and while he looks ready to start again rookie Marcus Davenport will get plenty of time too.  DT Sheldon Rankins and Tyeler Davison are steady on the inside.  After signing Manti Te’o and AJ Klein as free agents last season the team completed their LB corps overhaul with Demario Davis coming over from the Jets this season.  The trio isn’t winning any awards but they are steady and solid which is an upgrade over the group from a few years ago.  In the secondary, it was CB Marshon Lattimore who took home Defensive Rookie of the Year honors and he gives the Saints the first legitimate #1 CB they have had in forever.  Ken Crawley started last season being inactive on gamedays but ended the season as the starter and was pretty reliable opposite Lattimore.  Nickel back Patrick Robinson was signed to give the team a good third CB.  Rookie FS Marcus Williams had a great year minus that one major missed tackle in the playoffs against the Vikings.  It is unfortunate his rookie year is being remembered for that one horrible mistake.  The team signed veteran Kurt Coleman to play SS after letting Kenny Vaccaro go.  Vonn Bell still figures prominently in the defense as they routinely use three safeties, it is possible Bell overtakes Coleman as the starter sometime this year.

Sean Payton has been the Saints head coach since 2006 and he and Brees have made a very successful partnership which includes a Super Bowl title.  There have been ups and downs and some change over on the coaching staff but Payton seems to have a good one in place right now.  Pete Carmichael has been Payton’s long-time offensive coordinator and they work well together.  They even managed to transition the high-flying offense of Drew Brees to a one that relies pretty heavily on the Ingram/Kamara pairing running the ball.  Dennis Allen is the defensive coordinator and now that he has top talent to work with that unit is doing a much better job.  We will see if he can get the same type of production out of DE Marcus Davenport in his rookie year as he did out of Lattimore and Williams last season.  The Saints have a short window with Brees to try to win it all again but they made a move this preseason that may extend their window.  They traded for Teddy Bridgewater to backup Brees and he could be re-signed in the off season to be Brees’ eventual replacement.

Carolina Panthers

Clearly the Panthers offense revolves around QB Cam Newton and the team is hoping they have added enough talent around him to help him out.  The team finally let RB Jonathan Stewart go and they plan to give the bulk of the work to Christian McCaffrey.  That’s a major upgrade in talent but I wonder if McCaffrey can handle the workload as a RB and still be the effective weapon in the pass game.  The team signed CJ Anderson to back him up and they would be wise to let him carry some of the rushing load.  At WR the team traded WR Kelvin Benjamin last season because he and Devin Funchess were similar players and they wanted to get someone with deep speed to add to the offense.  Funchess becomes the top WR while the team added veteran Torrey Smith who definitely brings deep speed.  Smith can take the top off a defense but he’s never been the most consistent WR around.  The team hedged their bet on Smith by drafting DJ Moore, another speed demon WR who can stretch the field.  At TE Newton has one of the most consistent producers in the league in Greg Olsen.  Olsen only played in seven games last season but until that he had been one of the best TEs in the league and if he’s healthy he should return to being Newton’s go-to guy.  The offensive line has been a bit of a mess in the preseason.  First, RT Daryl Williams was hurt and had to sit out so Taylor Moton replaced him.  Now Williams seems to have made a miraculous recovery just as LT Matt Kalil goes down and is place on IR to start the year.  Moton looked very good at RT and now he switches to LT.  Jeremiah Sirles was supposed to replace LG Andrew Norwell who left in free agency but he will miss the season with an injury.  That means long-time backup Aminu Silatolu is likely to start.  C Ryan Kalil and RG Trae Turner seem to be the only sure things on the line.  The interesting thing will be if Moton excels at LT and Matt Kalil comes back after week 8, will he get his job back?  Kalil isn’t exactly the most impressive LT in the league, he is replaceable if Moton plays well.

The defense was effective last season but it is certainly aging.  The only starters you can still call young are LB Shaq Thompson, CB James Bradbury and CB Donte Jackson.  On the defensive line Julius Peppers returns at DE at 38 years old.  DE Mario Addison will be 30 this year too.  Dontari Poe replaces Star Lotulelei at one DT spot while Kawann Short returns at the other.  They have to hope Peppers can get healthy as he just came of the PUP list after the preseason.  He and Addison have to bring the pass rush because they don’t get it anywhere else.  MLB Luke Kuechly is in the prime of his career and he’s an absolute monster.  Thomas Davis will start the year suspended for the first four games and he has said this is his last year as he is set to retire.  Shaq Thompson should get more playing time on third down with Davis out and to get him ready for the future, he’s a pretty good talent.  Rookie Donte Jackson came in and took a starting job during the preseason and looks very good.  James Bradbury had some struggles last season but there is talent there to work with.  Safety Mike Adams is almost as old as Peppers but not nearly as productive, the team simply doesn’t have anyone to replace him.  Da’Norris Searcy is a very limited strong safety and the team really needs their young guys like Colin Jones and Rashaan Gaulden to step up.

Ron Rivera has been a pretty good coach for the Panthers franchise but he is once again replacing his defensive coordinator because Steve Wilks took the Cardinals head coaching job just one year after Sean McDermott left for the Bills job.  Eric Washington moves up after being the long-time defensive line coach so he is familiar with this team.  Long-time offensive coordinator Norv Turner was brought in to revitalize the offense and while he burned out as the Vikings coordinator he is a well-known commodity in the NFL.  It should be good for Christian McCaffrey as Norv Turner has always had RB friendly offenses.  I don’t think the Panthers are good enough or deep enough to compete with Atlanta and New Orleans and if age catches up to their defense things could get ugly.  Peppers, Addison, Davis and Adams are all vital pieces to the defensive puzzle and father time is undefeated.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a team in flux with Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games of the year for personal conduct policy issues (another sexual assault allegation, he has problems keeping his hands to himself).  That mean Ryan Fitzpatrick steps in and while Winston wasn’t great last season Fitzpatrick is a bit of a step down.  He’ll do okay but he will need a lot of help from his offense.  WR Mike Evans is the one major weapon this team has and he will be relied on greatly.  DeSean Jackson is still good but he’s 31 and doesn’t scare teams like he used to.  The team was hoping rookie RB Ronald Jones would step in for the departed Doug Martin but he lost the starting job to Peyton Barber, that’s not really a good thing.  Barber is a decent player but teams will be able to stop him.  TE Cameron Brate is solid but this team needs OJ Howard to take a major step in his development and become a real threat.  The offensive line could be a problem.  LT Donovan Smith has been a reliable starter since he entered the league but he’s never been a dominant player.  He’s banged up and his 48 consecutive game starting streak could come to an end and they have no real reliable backup.  The team is also hoping OG Ali Marpet is healthy enough to start week 1 otherwise they might be down their two best linemen.  C Ryan Jensen, G Evan Smith and RT Demar Dotson are just guys, they aren’t all that good.

The team’s defense was abysmal against the pass last season, literally finishing last in the league.  They decided the less than impressive pass rush was to blame and they were right.  The team traded for Jason Pierre-Paul from the Giants and signed Vinny Curry from the Eagles to take over at DE.  They can hope pushing Noah Spence into a reserve role allows him to become a better pass rush specialist.  The team signed DT Beau Allen to start next to the only holdover on the line, star DT Gerald McCoy.  McCoy should be happy he’s finally getting some help.  He’s a beast and with the drafting of Vita Vea to go with Allen and the other additions the defensive line should be much deeper than in the past.  At LB Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David should benefit from the increased size up front with the additions of Allen and Vea and with Curry and JPP putting pressure on the QB.  The team returns CBs Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes along side safeties Justin Evans and Chris Conte.  This unit wasn’t very good last year but they are hoping the increased pass rush helps them out.  Hargreaves is still young enough to turn around the slow start to his career while Evans has a chance to be a pretty good safety.  Grimes is trying to hold on at an advanced NFL age while Conte is what he is which is not very good.  The team did draft MJ Stewart (he’s injured for now) and Carlton Davis at CB so they are hoping the young guys make an impact.

I think this team has issues and I think those issues derail the season.  Along with Indianapolis, who lacks overall talent, I think the Bucs will be one of the worst teams in the league.  Winston has made his future as the face of the franchise quite cloudy.  I think Dirk Koetter is in over his head as the head coach and if things go south quickly I think he could be the first coach fired.  Defensive coordinator Mike Smith isn’t a sexy name but he has head coaching experience so the team has a ready-made interim fill-in, although probably not the long-term one.  If the aging duo of JPP and Vinny Curry don’t juice up the pass rush the defense could be in trouble and if Winston returns but takes another step back like he did last year the offense is in trouble.  That’s not a good combination.  The silver lining is that the defensive line draft class looks really good and the Bucs should have their pick of whichever one they want, unless they need to replace Winston with a new QB.

 

 

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags defense and running game carried the team to the AFC Championship game last season.  One of the best rushing attacks in the game makes life a lot easier for QB Blake Bortles.  Bortles is the weak link on the offense but he does just enough to not get replaced.  The team seemingly committed to him this off season but in reality, his contract is an easy one to get out of.  If he doesn’t better his TD-Int ratio from the 21-13 it was last season they have to consider a new direction.  The team is too good otherwise to waste with a bad QB.  RB Leonard Fournette was major stabilizing factor in the run game last year and he allows TJ Yeldon to be a more effective change-of-pace back.  At WR the team did fine with Marqise Lee leading a young group of Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook when the now departed Allen Robinson was injured for the year.  Now Lee is hurt and the team needs newly signed veteran Donte Moncrief to produce and rookie DJ Chark to not play like a rookie.  TE Mercedes Lewis was around for a decade but he was never much of a weapon and now he left as a free agent.  The team signed Austin Seferian-Jenkins and while he can be a weapon he can also be a headcase, he won’t be the steady influence Lewis was.  The offensive line was better than the sum of its parts.  LT Cam Robinson, C Brandon Linder, RG AJ Cann and RT Jeremy Parnell all return.  The team’s major off season addition was LG Andrew Norwell who should only make the ground game that much better.

The defense finished second in the league last season and if they do better against the run they can be the top unit this year.  Their pass defense was #1 and that was due to their fantastic defensive line and excellent secondary.  DEs Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell are excellent and the team hopes former first round pick Dante Fowler can become a better pass rush specialist.  DTs Malik Jackson and Marcell Dareus are both disruptive players and the team hopes a full season from Dareus (he came over in a trade last year) improves them against the run.  Perhaps rookie DT Taven Bryan can help in that regard too.  At LB the team loses heart and soul Paul Posluszny and while he may have lost a step over the last couple of years his leadership will be missed.  Myles Jack has to step up as the leader now and he teams with Telvin Smith to give the Jags two top talents at LB.  The other spot is the question mark.  Rookie Leon Jacobs is listed as the starter but it’s more likely this team runs out either five defensive linemen (with either Bryan or Fowler on the field) or a fifth defensive back more often than not.  The secondary is a major strength with Jalen Ramsey fulfilling his potential and being an All-Pro CB last season and AJ Bouye proving his great free agent year the year before with the Texans was no fluke.  SS Barry Church and FS Tayshaun Gipson filled their roles very well last year and return to do the same this season.

In a bit of a stunner former interim head coach Doug Marrone was named the permanent head coach before last season and then led the team to the AFC Championship game.  Marrone isn’t an exciting guy but he did well to steady the team last season.  Nathaniel Hackett is the offensive coordinator and he has a long history with Marrone.  His job now is to get Bortles to not screw this team up, relying on a good run game seems to be the right approach.  Defensive coordinator Todd Wash is one of the more unsung coordinators in the game, you don’t hear his name mentioned for head coaching jobs but he leads arguably the best defense in the league.  He predates Marrone’s tenure but Marrone was smart enough to keep him around.  The Jags still look like the top team in this division and as long as Bortles doesn’t go completely Blake Bortles on the team they should win the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans

The team believes they have franchise QB in Marcus Mariota and they finally made a coaching move that might allow him to fulfill his potential.  Even after making the playoffs last year the team decided not to bring back Mike Mularkey and they hired Mike Vrabel as head coach.  Vrabel is a defensive guy but he hired Matt LaFleur who was the Rams offensive coordinator to run his offense.  Out goes Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth” and in comes a modern offense for Mariota.  It’s time for him to put up or shut up.  The team should still have a smashmouth feel in the running game with an excellent offensive line blocking for new feature back Derrick Henry.  Henry finally usurped DeMarco Murray last season and this year the team brought in Dion Lewis from New England to complement Henry this time.  They should make an effective duo.  At WR LaFleur has to get Mariota and the supremely talented Corey Davis on the same page because Davis brings serious playmaking ability.  Rishard Matthews is still an effective veteran but Taywan Taylor has played great in the preseason and may have passed him.  At TE Delanie Walker is one of Mariota’s most trusted targets but his aging and youngster Jonnu Smith should start to get more playing time.  The offensive line has been very good with LT Taylor Lewan and RT Jack Conklin locking down the edges (assuming Conklin gets back from his ACL injury).  C Ben Jones and OGs Quinton Spain and Josh Kline are effective on the inside.

On defense Mike Vrabel brought in former Patriots/Raven defensive coordinator Dean Pees to continue to run the 3-4 defense the team has been using for the past several years.  Vrabel and Pees are well versed in the 3-4 and the personnel is a good fit.  Jurrell Casey is still the best defensive lineman on the team and DaQuan Jones and newly signed Bennie Logan add a lot of size up front.  At OLB the team has veterans Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo and while both are effective neither one is dynamic anymore.  That’s why the team drafted Boston College’s Harold Landry, they hope he brings more off the edge.  The big loss on defense was ILB Avery Williamson but the team drafted Rashaan Evans in the first round to replace him and line up next to veteran Wesley Woodyard, they should be a good pair.  At CB the team signed former Patriot Malcolm Butler just a year after signing another former Patriot Logan Ryan.  These two should start which would leave Adoree’ Jackson manning the nickel spot.  The Titans signed veteran safety Kenny Vaccaro during training camp and he should replace Kendrick Lewis at SS.  FS Kevin Byard had a breakout season last year and makes for an excellent last line of defense.

This team made the playoffs last year and they still replaced their coaching staff, that takes guts.  Vrabel is known as a leader but his Xs and Os prowess is underdeveloped at this point.  That’s why he hired Matt LaFleur and Dean Pees.  LaFleur is a rising star on the offensive side of the ball and he took this job because he gets to really run the offense himself.  Pees has a history with Vrabel and is a well-known commodity.  If Pees and Vrabel can manufacture a better pass rush the defense can be really good and as long as the offensive line is healthy LaFleur has plenty of talent to work with.  I think the Titans just edge out the Texans to finish second behind the Jags, the Texans have far more questions on the offensive line that could undermine their progress.

Houston Texans

The Deshaun Watson hype train is in full effect after his sparkling debut last season.  Unfortunately, that season was short-lived after an injury ended his season early.  The promise he showed was enormous but his health is also the question.  Because of his ability to escape the pocket and the poor offensive line he’ll be playing behind I fear for his safety this season.  He is a legitimate weapon both throwing and running the ball but if he takes too many hits it will add up.  He has a fantastic weapon in WR DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller returned from injury last year to prove he can be a deep threat.  The early retirement of CJ Fiedorowicz due to concussions leaves them without a weapon at the position.  RB Lamar Miller is an underappreciated back who did solid work without much blocking in front of him last season.  The offensive line is a mess.  LT Julie’n Davenport is young, inexperienced and unfortunately the best option they have the position.  Seantrel Henderson is set to start at RT and that’s a disaster waiting to happen.  Senio Kelemete came over from New Orleans where he has never been a full-time starter in his six-year career.  Zach Fulton comes over from Kansas City where he was a starter but he’s solid not great.  C Nick Martin missed the last two games last season after ankle surgery, that’s after missing his rookie year with a knee injury.  Martin is easily the most talented offensive lineman on the team, if he can just stay healthy.  The team has to hope rookie Martinas Rankin can find a spot somewhere because he’s talented but his versatility may mean he doesn’t settle in to just one spot.

The defense was solid last season even though JJ Watt missed the year with an injury.  They would have been better if the offense had been more effective without Watson.  Watt’s return is huge up front and he teams with NT DJ Reader and DE Chris Covington to make a tough front line.  Watt makes plays while the other two free up the linebackers to make plays.  OLBs Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus bring pressure off the edge.  When Clowney, Mercilus and Watt are all healthy and playing at a high level they are a nightmare for opposing offenses.  It would be good for them if that was the case more often.  At ILB Bernardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham are everywhere cleaning up what those three guys leave behind.  Kevin Johnson and Jonathan Joseph return at CB and the team added Aaron Colvin from Jacksonville as the nickel, that’s a good group.  There are some changes at safety as former CB Kareem Jackson takes over at SS and Tyrann Mathieu was signed to handle the FS spot.  The team also drafted SS Justin Reid and that’s a smart move considering Jackson is 30 and new to the SS position.

Bill O’Brien is entering his fifth season as Texans head coach and he’s hoping he finally has a QB.  O’Brien serves as his own offensive coordinator so if things go south with Watson he will have no one to blame but himself.  He is turning the defense back over to Romeo Crennel who served as defensive coordinator before he gave way to Mike Vrabel last season and served as Assistant Head Coach.  Crennel is back to calling the defense which seems like good news for the unit.  I worry the offensive line will be this team’s undoing.  A poor offensive line has hurt the development of a QB for this franchise before just ask David Carr.  Also, Watson’s running skills may betray him as he tries to do too much when the line breaks down and he could end up being the next RGIII.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts entire season seems to be about Andrew Luck’s return and while it’s pretty amazing to finally see him get back out there this isn’t the same team he was playing with before.  A new coaching staff, lots of new offensive players and a defense that looks pretty rough.  Getting Luck back out there healthy is a good way to start over but this team has a long way to go.  Frank Gore left for Miami (no he’s still not retired he’s playing for the Dolphins), that leaves Marlon Mack as the feature back.  Mack has some skills but I’m not sure he’s ready to carry the load but they don’t have much beyond him.  WR TY Hilton is probably the happiest to see Luck back out there.  While Hilton played well without him he’ll play even better with him.  Ryan Grant was signed as free agent to play opposite Hilton and he’s all they have there until someone else steps forward.  TE Jack Doyle had his best year last season so he’s become a weapon while Luck has been out.  The offensive line needs LT Anthony Costanzo to get healthy, he’s not a Pro Bowler but he’s steady and he’s the best they have.  LG Quenton Nelson is a rookie first round draft pick who should solidify that spot for the next decade, he’s a monster and he should make Costanzo’s life easier.  The team needs C Ryan Kelly to get healthy and stay that way, if he does they are solid at three positions.  The right side of the line is a different story.  Veteran Matt Slauson may start at RG or it could be one of the guys who loses the RT battle.  Joe Haeg, J’Marcus Webb, Austin Howard, Denzelle Good and rookie Braden Smith are all still vying for the job.  That is not a good thing.

The offense isn’t deep but there is some talent, I wish I could say the same for the defense.  The front four consists of DE Jabaal Sheard, DE Kemoko Turay, DT Al Woods and DT Denico Autry, that’s not a great start.  The LBs are slightly better with Najee Goode, Anthony Walker and Darius Leonard set to start, at least they are still young and can develop.  CBs Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore are just holding down the spots until someone better comes along.  FS Malik Hooker is talented but he’s coming off a major knee injury that ruined his rookie year.  SS Clayton Geathers might be solid too but he’s returning from a neck injury.  As things go this defense needs a total overhaul.  If there are starters other than a couple of these LBs and the two safeties on this team in three years I would be shocked.

The only thing that slightly overshadowed Andrew Luck’s shoulder rehab this off season it was the coaching change.  Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels accepted the job right up until the moment he didn’t accept it.  The team changed course and hired Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich instead.  Reich gets a chance to restart Andrew Luck’s career but this team has so many other holes.  The team is changing schemes on defense and going away from Chuck Pagano’s 3-4.  Matt Eberflus comes in and he’s going to take his lumps with this unit.  New GM Chris Ballard has his work cut out for him reshaping this roster but I expect he will have another high draft pick this year as I don’t see this team having more than a few wins, even with Luck at full strength.