2019 NFL Mock Draft 3.0 (it’s long)

2019 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

This is my last mock draft before the big event coming on Thursday night.  It’s lying season in the NFL so don’t believe anything you hear.  There are a few things I think could be true.  Dwayne Haskins may fall a bit if the Giants have really decided he’s not their guy.  I still think he’s the best QB in this draft but he could end up somewhere between picks 10-15 instead of in the top 7.  I still think Kyler Murray goes number 1 overall and I still disagree with it.  Arizona only has until the draft to trade Josh Rosen or they lose all leverage and won’t get anywhere near his value for him.  They already waited too long as teams like Denver and Washington traded for veterans, that doesn’t take them out of the discussion but it means they aren’t as likely to pony up valuable assets.  If Arizona GM Steve Keim ends up with both Murray and Rosen on the Cardinals roster after the draft he should be fired on the spot, that’s dereliction of duty.  I went a little bit crazy and just kept going so this is a THREE round mock draft so if you make it to the end…congrats, that’s real dedication.

 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (3-13): Kyler Murray           QB                       Oklahoma

This pairing has been beaten to death over the last several months as everyone assumes Kliff Kingsbury is enamored with Murray’s fit in his offense.  The bump in the road here is the presence of Josh Rosen.  Rosen is no slouch and he could certainly run Kingsbury’s offense.  He may not be the athlete Murray is but Rosen is a highly accurate passer and the timing and rhythm of Kingsbury’s offense needs pinpoint accuracy.  Murray is a talent but I wonder about his long-term viability given his size and penchant for scrambling.  Steve Keim and Kliff Kingsbury will be staking their NFL careers on whichever QB they decide to go with, I would bet on Rosen, they probably won’t.

  1. San Francisco 49ers (4-12): Nick Bosa            DE                        Ohio St.

Teams that go 4-12 clearly can use help all over but the 49ers got some help offensively in free agency (RB Tevin Coleman, WR Jordan Matthews) and they are hoping to get more help with the return of QB Jimmy Garoppolo and RB Jerick McKinnon.  That means they can focus on defense in the draft.  It just so happens this draft is stacked on defense and with the Cardinals going Murray first overall the 49ers get their pick.  Taking Nick Bosa, the top overall prospect in the draft, seems like a solid strategy.  It just so happens he would fit right in opposite newly acquired Dee Ford and allow the team to slide Solomon Thomas inside and leave him there.  Bosa would complete a really good defensive front four of himself, Thomas, DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford.  That’s a front you can build on.

  1. New York Jets (4-12): Quinnen Williams           DT                        Alabama

This one will truly be a pick’em between Williams and Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen.  The difference here I think comes down to the defense new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will want to run.  He’s always been more of a 4-3 defense kind of guy and that defense would also suit their best defenders DL Leonard Williams and newly signed MLB CJ Mosley.  Quinnen Williams would pair inside with Leonard Williams at DT and provide protection of Mosley.  Also, the 4-3 alignment would probably benefit LB Darron Lee, that’s an added bonus.  Quinnen Williams is an absolute beast and he’ll make the entire defense better.

  1. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Josh Allen            DE/OLB               Kentucky

Jon Gruden claims it’s hard to find good pass rushers, here’s one, don’t pass on him.  Allen returned to school last year and really improved his stock and he’s the best pass rusher not named Nick Bosa.  Allen is actually more than a pass rusher so he would be a fantastic addition to the Raiders defense that needs playmakers.  This pick should be an easy decision for Mike Mayock the new GM of the Raiders with Murray and Bosa at 1 and 2 the Raiders simply take whichever guy (Allen or Quinnen Williams) that the Jets pass on.  If for some reason the Cardinals pass on Kyler Murray it would be a very Gruden move to take Murray even though he already has Derek Carr.

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Montez Sweat           OLB/DE               Mississippi St.

The Buccaneers defense is undergoing some changes with the coaching change to Bruce Arians as he brought in his former defensive coordinator from Arizona Todd Bowles.  Bowles prefers a 3-4 alignment and they need edge rushers for that defense.  Sweat will be perfect for that job as he is a bit of a tweener and has elite athleticism and can really bend the edge from the OLB spot.  While a lot of mock drafts have the team taking Devin White to replace Kwon Alexander the team signed Deone Buchanan, a guy Arians and Bowles turned into an ILB in Arizona.  The only pass rushing OLB they have is newly signed Shaquil Barrett unless they think they can turn Jason Pierre-Paul into one…btw, they can’t.  Their secondary is suspect and they could really use some new blood but getting a better pass rush is another way to improve your secondary’s performance.

  1. New York Giants (5-11): Rashan Gary          DL                        Michigan

This is the first time I’m going away from the Giants drafting Dwayne Haskins.  Either Dave Gettleman is pulling off the greatest misinformation campaign ever or the Giants really don’t see Haskins as their guy.  There are rumors they prefer Daniel Jones from Duke and if that’s the case they can use the #17 pick they got in the Beckham deal from Cleveland to land him.  Gettleman likes to draft lineman and this team needs help on both lines.  Gary is a fantastic athlete that simply didn’t produce much at Michigan but teams think they can get more out of him.  He’s a bit of a tweener, not really a DT and not really a DE but defensive coordinator James Bettcher runs a 3-4 defense so he will find a place to use Gary.  This pick will be exceptionally unpopular with Giants fans but Gettleman won’t care.  The Jones pick later will be even more unpopular.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Jawaan Taylor           OT                        Florida

Jacksonville seems poised to try to ride the running game of Leonard Fournette and using the run/pass option with Nick Foles to set it up.  That offense will go a lot farther if they upgrade the front line.  They are pretty solid at the other four positions but RT is a problem.  Taylor still has some maturing to do but he can step right in at RT and be a huge upgrade over holdover Will Richardson and free agent Cedric Ogbuehi.  Taylor is a mammoth human being and while he’s a little raw his talent will overcome.  If the Jags can keep Fournette healthy and on the field and they get LT Cam Robinson back healthy the offense will be much improved with Foles running things instead of Blake Bortles messing everything up.  Foles doesn’t have to be great he just has to not be Bortles level bad.

  1. Detroit Lions (6-10): Jonah Williams            OT                        Alabama

The Lions addressed a number of their major needs in free agency with DE Trey Flowers, CBs Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin, WR Danny Amendola and TE Jesse James.  They even recently signed RB CJ Anderson as insurance for the sometimes injured Kerryon Johnson.  One issue they didn’t address was the right side of their offensive line.  RT Ricky Wagner is nothing special and RG Kenny Wiggins is just a placeholder.  Some people think Jonah Williams will slide inside to guard in the NFL but I think he would be just fine at RT.  Either way he could be a starter and an upgrade to the Lions offensive line.  This team could go for a pass rusher if Montez Sweat or Rashan Gary slide this far but if not, I think upgrading the offensive line would be a solid move for Matt Patricia’s team.

  1. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Ed Oliver           DT                        Houston

The Bills seriously upgraded the WR corps with John Brown, Cole Beasley and Andre Roberts, they also added C Mitch Morse, OG Quinton Spain and OT Ty Nsekhe to the offensive line.  While they could use some more help in the secondary the one guy they will miss the most is retired DT Kyle Williams.  He was a mainstay on their line and they are lucky that a guy as talented and disruptive as Ed Oliver is still available here at #9.  Oliver is an undersized DT but he’ll spend a lot of time in their opponent’s backfield and blowup a lot of plays for the Bills defense.  This team will have to seriously consider a TE like TJ Hockenson or Noah Fant to help out their second-year QB Josh Allen but Oliver has too much value still sitting here ninth overall.

  1. Denver Broncos (6-10): Devin White            LB                         LSU

I’m still fairly certain John Elway is gun shy about taking a QB in the first round, he hasn’t been good at drafting them which is why he traded for Joe Flacco.  New head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive whiz and in Chicago last year he had rookie LB Roquan Smith, a multifaceted LB.  Denver’s 3-4 defense has two hardnosed thumpers in the middle in Todd Davis and Josey Jewell, neither of whom is great as a coverage LB.  White has elite speed and athleticism and would offer a different dimension.  There is a pretty good chance I have White going too low as he could go as high as #5 overall to Tampa Bay.  If he falls here, I think Elway gets Fangio a new ILB for his defense.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10): Dwayne Haskins           QB                       Ohio St.

The Bengals haven’t been a team talked about when it comes to taking a QB but if Haskins falls, I think it makes things interesting for them.  New head coach Zac Taylor has no allegiance to Andy Dalton and it may be time for the team to move on from Dalton, Haskins gives them a reason to do so.  Haskins is a pocket passer who would look quite good in Taylor’s offense.  Taking an Ohio St. QB to take over in Cincinnati isn’t a bad thing either, it’s not like Bengals fans are enamored with Dalton at this point so with a new coach it might be time to completely turn the page.  I think Haskins is the best QB in this draft and while the Bengals may have more pressing needs, this would be a solid reboot for the franchise.

  1. Green Bay Packers (6-9-1): TJ Hockenson          TE                        Iowa

The Packers passing attack has undergone some changes the last few seasons with the loss of Jordy Nelson last year and now Randall Cobb this year and the emergence of Devante Adams as the top WR.  Jimmy Graham was brought in to add some playmaking from the TE spot but he’s not the player he used to be.  New head coach Matt LaFleur was hired to update the offense and adding a TE with the all-around skills of Hockenson would be a solid start.  With Cobb gone Aaron Rodgers can use a middle of the field weapon to open things up outside for Adams and Hockenson brings the added benefit of being an outstanding blocker.  Hockenson can be the type of TE we see in the NFL with guys like Zack Ertz in Philadelphia, Travis Kelce in Kansas City and George Kittle in San Francisco.

  1. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Brian Burns            DE                        Florida St.

The Dolphins signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to be their QB this season so that they will be bad enough to get a high pick next year so they can draft their QB of the future in a draft that will have better QBs than this one.  They need help on the offensive and defensive lines so this is a solid draft to address those needs.  With Cameron Wake moving on to Tennessee and then trading Robert Quinn to Dallas it leaves them with the very underwhelming Charles Harris as their best pass rusher.  Burns is a freak off the edge and while he isn’t the biggest guy, he can get to the QB.  The Dolphins are taking the long view on rebuilding so grabbing a pass rusher who may need a little time to fully develop is a sound strategy.  An offensive lineman like Cody Ford or Andre Dillard is possible but there is depth at O-line they can take later.

  1. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Cody Ford           OL                        Oklahoma

The Falcons offensive line needs some help.  They signed two offensive guards in the off season and neither one is all that great.  They also need help at RT where they have Ty Sambrailo penciled in at the moment.  Ford could fill any of those three needs.  He has the potential to be Pro Bowl caliber player at OG while he could also excel as at RT.  The Falcons need help on the defensive line as well and they could take Christian Wilkins or Dexter Lawrence to line up at DT next to Grady Jarrett.  However, I think they know they need to get better up front on offense to help Matt Ryan in the passing game and improve the running game.  Ford is a versatile piece that will help them put their five best offensive linemen on the field when they line up opening weekend.

  1. Washington Redskins (7-9): Drew Lock           QB                       Missouri

The Redskins wait patiently and are rewarded with a QB falling to them.  This team traded for Case Keenum to fill the void left by Alex Smith’s gruesome leg injury last season but it’s time to get the future of the franchise now.  Lock is capable of fitting into Jay Gruden’s offense but having Keenum around means he will have to earn it.  If he’s not ready they don’t have to rush him and while this team may act like they believe Alex Smith will eventually return I would have my doubts.  Lock is a big, strong-armed guy who can make all the throws.  He hasn’t always been consistent but you can see an NFL caliber player when watching him.

  1. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Clelin Ferrell           DE                        Clemson

The Panthers defense is predicated on getting pass rush from the front four and with the retirement of Julius Peppers the team is in dire need of an outside edge rusher.  Ferrell is the best one left on the board and he’s a very good choice.  He isn’t the stoutest DE and he needs some work against the run but he’ll add the pass rush the team needs with his quick first step.  The team could use some help on the offensive line but they seem to be convinced Taylor Moton can handle the LT spot.  The secondary still needs some work and a safety to pair with Eric Reid wouldn’t be a bad choice.  Ferrell is likely the last of the top pass rushers on the board so getting him is good value.

  1. New York Giants (from Cleveland): Daniel Jones               QB                       Duke

The rumors are that the Giants aren’t enamored with Dwayne Haskins and actually prefer Daniel Jones at QB.  If that’s true this would work out well for them even though it’s a bit of a reach to take Jones here.  They have this luxury since this is their second 1st round pick.  This is the pick they got from Cleveland for Odell Beckham so the pressure will be one Jones.  Not only will he be the guy replacing a two-time Super Bowl winning QB but he’s the guy they got for Odell Beckham (there’s more to the trade but this is how it will play).  Jones is a solid prospect who received excellent coaching in college from David Cutcliffe but he seems like just a guy to me.  I like Haskins and Lock better and if you made me pick, I would probably take Ryan Finley over him too.  I really don’t think Jones is that much better of a prospect than Will Grier.  The truth is teams fall in love with certain QBs and they can’t be talked out of it, something tells me this pick is going to be comparable to the Vikings when they took Christian Ponder.

  1. Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1): Dalton Risner           OL                        Kansas St.

The Vikings are pretty set at the skill positions on offense and their defense is solid too.  However, the offensive line leaves a lot to be desired.  They need help at both guard positions and they could upgrade at RT.  Risner would give them options at all three spots.  Many think he will slide inside and play guard but he can be a pretty solid RT in the NFL.  Risner could legitimately play all five offensive line positions as needed, he played C for a time at Kansas St.  His versatility makes him valuable and he would upgrade any of the three positions the Vikings need and he could be Pat Elflein’s backup in the pivot too.  I think he wins the RT job and solidifies a trouble spot for the team.

  1. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Noah Fant           TE                        Iowa

The Titans signed Adam Humphries to play slot receiver and Roger Saffold to solidify their offensive line.  They made these moves because they have to see if Marcus Mariota is really their franchise QB or if they need to move on after this season.  One of the things that hurt Mariota last season was Delanie Walker’s injury at TE.  Mariota has always relied on Walker and when he went down Jonnu Smith simply didn’t step up.  Drafting Fant would give the Titans offense a dynamic athlete and pass catcher over the middle and provide Mariota with the safety valve he needs.  Walker is 35 years old and coming off a major injury, they simply can’t rely on him.  If Mariota can up his game with all the talent around him; WRs Corey Davis, Tajee Sharpe and Humphries, RB Derrick Henry and TE Fant, then the Titans will likely stick with him.  If not, it’s time to move on and next year’s QB draft class could provide a new face of the franchise.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1): Devin Bush           ILB                       Michigan

The Steelers haven’t adequately replaced Ryan Shazier since his injury from a few years ago and the inside of their defense has suffered.  Bush has a similar profile as a smaller, athletic LB who hits like a truck and runs exceptionally well.  The team signed Mark Barron this off season but both Jon Bostic and Vince Williams could use replacing at ILB and Bush is simply too good to pass up if he falls this far.  The team could look to find help at CB with Greedy Williams or Byron Murphy but Bush just seems like a better fit.

  1. Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Christian Wilkins           DT                       Clemson

Wilkins isn’t the flashy penetrator Quinnen Williams is and he isn’t in the athletically gifted category like Rashan Gary but he’s a steady as they come.  He can play all over the line if needed and he will look really good lining up inside next to Jarran Reed for the foreseeable future.  The Seahawks have DE Frank Clark on a franchise tag and they need to sign Reed next year so they need some affordable bodies on the d-line.  Wilkins brings immediate help and cost certainty.  He isn’t an edge rusher but can play some end on running downs but he’ll earn his paycheck inside and be a steady force keeping MLB Bobby Wagner clean.

  1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): DK Metcalf           WR                      Ole Miss

The Ravens suffered plenty of losses in free agency over this off season; OLBs Terrell Suggs and Za’Darius Smith, S Eric Weddle, LB CJ Mosley, and WRs Michael Crabtree and John Brown.  They could look to replace Suggs and Smith at OLB but there isn’t great value left at this point unless you like Jaylon Ferguson a lot.  No WRs have gone here and they desperately need to find at least one outside receiver for Lamar Jackson to throw to this year.  DK Metcalf is a physical freak with incredible speed and he’s built like Mr. Olympia.  He isn’t he smoothest WR but he would offer Jackson a dynamic downfield threat and a wide catch radius.  The Ravens would have their pick here so they could take Marquise Brown, AJ Brown, N’Keal Harry or any other WR they want, Metcalf is just my choice here.

  1. Houston Texans (11-5): Andre Dillard           OT                       Washington St.

The Texans’ offense can be dynamic but it would help if they stop giving up over 60 sacks like they did last season.  The offensive line is pretty bad and they need help almost everywhere.  LT would be a good place to start and Dillard is the best pass blocking OT in this draft.  He can step in on day one and that would allow the team to not rely on free agent Matt Kalil to have to step in because he’s never been anyone’s answer at LT.  Julie’n Davenport can compete at RT or inside at guard and offer a better alternative there or just be depth, another thing they haven’t had on the line.

  1. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago): Greedy Williams           CB                        LSU

The Raiders have done a lot of their offensive upgrades this off season through free agency.  They brought in LT Trent Brown, WR Antonio Brown, WR Tyrell Williams, WR JJ Nelson and RB Isaiah Crowell while the defense only got LB Brandon Marshall, LB Vontaze Burfict and S Lamarcus Joyner.  The defense needs more help and Josh Allen was a nice start but getting the best CB in this draft at #24 overall is a pretty nice gift too.  Williams is a long, athletic corner who doesn’t tackle much but he can cover.  The team has Gareon Conley and Nick Nelson listed as starters and Williams can take Nelson’s job, he’s that good.  The Raiders are stockpiling talent at this point and if they start this draft off with Allen and Williams, they are doing things right.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): Jeffrey Simmons           DT                       Mississippi St.

The Eagles should be looking for a LT who can eventually replace Jason Peters, probably sooner rather than later but there isn’t one here.  This team also needs a LB but with Devin White and Devin Bush off the board it would be a reach here.  The Eagles could go CB but this feels like a best player available kind of pick.  Simmons injured himself during his draft prep and is unlikely to be ready to open the season but if he was, he wouldn’t still be on the board here. He’s a dynamic interior defensive lineman who can collapse the pocket as well as stuff the run.  The Eagles have Fletcher Cox and Malik Jackson at DT but not much else.  Cox has had his share of injuries and Jackson hasn’t always been a model of consistency.  These two are both approaching the age of 30 within a couple of years and they make a lot of money.   All that seems to point to a good time to find their eventual replacement.

  1. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): Marquise Brown           WR                      Oklahoma

I haven’t had Marquise Brown in my mock drafts because he’s been dealing with a Lisfranc injury in his foot and that can be a problem for a WR.  However, he checked out just fine at Oklahoma’s pro day and teams seem less worried about the injury than before.  Brown is an undersized WR with elite speed and cutting ability and while some teams may find his size an issue the Colts have done quite well with TY Hilton who fits the same profile.  Andrew Luck has always found ways to get Hilton the ball whether it was on the outside or in the slot and now Brown and Hilton can flip flop throughout the game and cause massive headaches for opposing defenses.  The team could go a number of ways on defense but with so many defenders going early it leaves some really good talent available here in the mid-20s and Brown is simply too valuable to pass up.

  1. Oakland Raiders (from Dallas): Josh Jacobs           RB                        Alabama

The Raiders went defense with their first two picks and filled two major needs, pass rusher and cornerback.  The third pick could go many ways but they should really look to go for the best value.  Jacobs is considered the best RB in this class and while they could get one later why not take the best one with your third pick.  The team signed Isaiah Crowell but drafting Jacobs would give Crowell someone to share carries with and Jacobs is a better option than Jalen Richard or DeAndre Washington who haven’t proven to be reliable full-time backs.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (12-4): Dexter Lawrence          DT                       Clemson

The Chargers re-signed 34-year-old Brandon Mebane to man the middle at NT but he’s obviously aging and has had some injury issues.  With Mebane’s issues and the loss of Corey Luiget the Chargers have an obvious need on the defensive line.  Lawrence is a mammoth human being at 6’4 and over 340 lbs. but he’s not just a run-stopping anchor.  He can fill Mebane’s NT spot or he could line up next to him in Liuget’s old DE position on the three-man line.  The Chargers need help up the middle to stop the run and Lawrence will do that quite well but he’ll also draw attention away from outside rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): Garrett Bradbury           OC                       North Carolina St.

The Chiefs didn’t re-sign free agent center Mitch Morse leaving a pretty sizable hole in the middle of an otherwise solid line.  Leaving a hole that big in front of your franchise QB is not a great idea and Andy Reid knows the importance of a good center.  Bradbury’s name doesn’t get mentioned a lot, centers’ names rarely do at draft time, but he’s an excellent prospect and can start from day one.  Getting Patrick Mahomes a center he can trust and grow with is a smart use of a late first round pick.  The Chiefs have a number of needs on the defense as they transition from a 3-4 to a 4-3 but none of the prospects they could get on defense offer the value a 10-year starting center does at this point.

  1. Green Bay Packers (13-3): AJ Brown           WR                      Ole Miss

The Packers could go a number of ways with their second 1st round pick.  After taking TJ Hockenson with the 12th pick they could decide to address their defensive secondary and a safety like Deionte Thompson or Nasir Adderley is completely possible but I’m not sure they offer the same value as AJ Brown.  Brown has been a bit overshadowed by his Ole Miss teammate DK Metcalf but Brown is the one that actually produced in college.  He’s a guy that could fill the Randall Cobb role and line up inside or outside.  The team really only has Devante Adams as a proven commodity at WR while the younger guys are still trying to figure it out.  Brown would be a load to handle in the slot and Aaron Rodgers would appreciate having Brown and Hockenson added to his arsenal in the passing game.  My dark horse WR here is Deebo Samuel, he’s an excellent pass catcher who can lineup inside or out too.

  1. Los Angeles Rams (13-3): Byron Murphy           CB                        Washington

The Rams biggest needs are at DT or LB but the value just isn’t there at this point.  They could draft Jaylon Ferguson as a pass rusher or reach for a guy like Jerry Tillery at DT but there is far better value at CB.  Both Murphy and Deandre Baker are worthy of first round picks and while the Rams have Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Nickell Robey-Coleman both Peters and Talib are getting older and more expensive.  Both of them could be gone in a year and giving Murphy a year to learn on the job would be smart move.  The team does need to address some holes on the offensive line as John Sullivan wasn’t re-signed at center and Andrew Whitworth will be 37 at LT.  Neither of those positions offer the value of Murphy either and for a team that just made the Super Bowl they can afford to take the best player available.

  1. New England Patriots (11-5): Kaleb McGary           OT                       Washington

When everyone thinks Bill Belichick is going to zig, he zags.  The team used a first-round pick on OT Isaiah Wynn last season and then he blew out his Achilles and missed the season.  For now, Wynn is penciled in as the starting LT to replace Trent Brown but he’s really not built for the OT position and with him coming back from his injury it will likely be even tougher to play that spot.  McGary’s name hasn’t been mentioned much but he’s a 6’7 offensive tackle who’s a bit raw but he has lots of potential.  Everyone thinks the Pats are going to try to draft Gronk’s replacement but unless they move up for Hockenson or Fant the best they can do here is Irv Smith Jr., I don’t see them taking him.  They can draft McGary and let offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia work his magic with him.  Wynn was drafted to cover for the eventual loss of Joe Thuney so for now he’s becomes the backup at about four spots on the line.  This would be a very Patriots pick, assuming they don’t trade out of round 1 (they’re going to trade out of this pick).

Round 2

  1. Arizona: Deebo Samuel                WR                      South Carolina

Regardless of who the Cardinals end up going with at QB, if they want Kliff Kingsbury’s offense to work they need better receivers.   Larry Fitzgerald is a Hall of Famer but he’s not the best fit in the offense and he isn’t going to play much longer. Christian Kirk fits the profile but he missed time last year.  Samuel fits any offense and he’ll be excellent.

  1. Indianapolis (from NYJ): Jaylon Ferguson        DE/OLB                             Louisiana Tech

The Colts need to generate more pass rush to make their defense more effective.  They signed Justin Houston to help out there but he’s not the player he was at his peak in Kansas City.  Ferguson is a pass rushing machine and he should bring the heat off the edge.

  1. Oakland: Chase Winovich             DE                                    Michigan

Winovich is a slightly undersized DE who never quits coming.  He isn’t the athlete his teammate Rashan Gary is but Winovich was the defensive lineman at Michigan who actually produced.  With Josh Allen drafted earlier taking Winovich would be Jon Gruden’s way of doubling down on that pass rush he thinks is so hard to find.

  1. San Francisco: N’Keal Harry           WR           Arizona St.

The 49ers rely pretty heavily on TE George Kittle and WR Marquise Goodwin to move the ball through the air.  While veteran Jordan Matthews may have something left the team really needs a true outside threat with good size who can be a red zone target.  Harry is a big, powerful WR who would complement Goodwin quite well.

  1. New York Giants: Deandre Baker           CB           Georgia

Baker offers great value as he has first round ability.  The Giants currently have Sam Beal penciled in opposite Janoris Jenkins and that’s not great.  Also, Jenkins could be getting too expensive to keep around after next year so it’s time to get some new blood.  Baker isn’t the most physically gifted CB but he’s a great cover guy.

  1. Jacksonville: Nasir Adderley           S           Delaware

The Jags defense is undergoing a few renovations and one of those renovations is at safety.  The team released Tashaun Gipson and Adderley would make a very suitable replacement to line up with Ronnie Harrison.

  1. Tampa Bay: Rock Ya-Sin           CB                        Temple

New defensive coordinator Todd Bowls needs some help, he got his pass rusher in the round 1, now it’s time to get someone to cover.  Ya-Sin is a good-sized corner with coverage skills and he can pair with Carlton Davis on the outside so Vernon Hargreaves can man the slot position.

  1. Buffalo: Zach Allen           DE                        Boston College

The Bills aren’t exactly stacked at defensive line and the edge needs some work.  Jerry Hughes has been solid for them but he’s on the wrong side of 30.  Trent Murphy is just a guy and is likely to be a cap casualty in the future. Allen isn’t the speediest edge rusher but he gets home with his technique and work ethic.  He can set the edge also and he’s very good value at #40 overall.

  1. Denver: Elgton Jenkins           OC                       Mississippi St.

The Broncos lost Matt Paradis in free agency and for now they are planning to move Connor McGovern from OG to C and that will weaken two positions.  Jenkins can start right away at C and let McGovern stay at OG where he’ll be more effective.  Joe Flacco needs a clean pocket and that starts on the interior line.

  1. Cincinnati: Mack Wilson           LB                         Alabama

The Bengals have to remake their LB corps as Preston Brown is the only above average member of the group and he’s on a short-term deal.  Wilson can play for the year next to Brown and then eventually take over in the middle.  He isn’t a great fit outside but he’s better than what they have.

  1. Detroit: Oshane Ximines           DE                        Old Dominion

The Lions signed Trey Flowers to play one side of the d-line but they need another pass rusher.  Flowers is a good all-around DE but they need someone to bend the edge and Ximines is a smaller speed rusher.  Ximines is a small school prospect but he has a skill set Matt Patricia will find quite intriguing.

  1. Green Bay: Deionte Thompson           S                           Alabama

The Packers went offense with their two 1st round picks so they go defense here.  They have Adrian Amos and Josh Jones at safety but both guys are better suited playing close to the line.  Thompson can cover the deep middle and allow those guys to do what they do best.

  1. Atlanta: Amari Oruwariye           CB                        Penn St.

Atlanta lost two CBs this off season in Robert Alford and Brian Poole so they need some help.  Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver are a solid duo but Oruwariye would give them three solid players and he has the size Dan Quinn looks for in a CB.

  1. Washington: Parris Campbell           WR                      Ohio St.

The Redskins got there QB of the future (and probably the present) in round one, time to get him some help.  The top WRs on the roster are Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson, a playmaker who can take it the distance any time he touches it is a good place to start.  That’s Campbell.

  1. Carolina: Chris Lindstrom           OG                       Boston College

Lindstrom is a technically sound guard who is light on his feet and can move.  The Panthers need some interior line help to keep Cam Newton healthy and improve the run game.  Lindstrom needs to add some strength but he will be ready to play day one, he’s not flashy he’s just rock solid.

  1. Miami: Yodny Cajuste           OL                        West Virginia

Cajuste looks the part of a LT but he is missing the foot speed necessary to excel there.  However, his strength would be a huge asset at RT where the Dolphins could really use him.  At worst, he could be a very good OG and the team needs help there too, it’s a win-win for the Dolphins.

  1. Cleveland: Justin Layne           CB                        Michigan St.

Cleveland has done a fantastic job of picking up players this off season to really set up a good year; WR Odell Beckham, DT Sheldon Richardson, DE Olivier Vernon, and even RB Kareem Hunt (suspended the first 8 games of the year).  However, there are a few holes left to fill, Jaime Collins’ OLB spot and the hole at CB opposite Denzel Ward are the two most noticeable ones.  Ward was fantastic as a rookie last year but he needs a partner and given Ward’s smaller stature a bigger CB might be nice.  Layne has good size at 6’2 and he can play.  At this point, anybody is better than either Terrence Mitchell or TJ Carrie.  Layne will hold up much better when teams throw away from Ward’s side of the field.

  1. Minnesota: Jerry Tillery           DT                        Notre Dame

Not your typical DT at 6’6 295 lbs. but while he looks tall and a bit slight for the interior line, he’s incredible difficult to move off his spot when he anchors and he’s very disruptive.  Tiller should probably go higher than this but this is where he ends up in this mock draft.

  1. Tennessee: Charles Omenihu           DE                        Texas

Omenihu is a large DE prospect at 6’5 280 lbs. and he would look good on Tennessee’s line next to Jurrell Casey.  He can rush the passer but also set the edge and allow their pass rushing OLB’s to get to the QB.

  1. Pittsburgh: Juan Thornhill           S                     Virginia

The Steelers took Terrell Edmunds in the 1st round last year but he needs a running mate.  Sean Davis is holding down the FS spot for now but he’s going into the last year of his contract and he’s not great.  Thornhill is a speed demon who can cover a whole lot of ground in deep centerfield.

  1. Philadelphia (from Baltimore): Blake Cashman           LB                        Minnesota

The Eagles desperately need help at LB and Cashman showed impressive athleticism at the combine that no one was expecting.  He was a tackling machine for the Gophers and that’s exactly what the Eagles need to line up with Nigel Bradham.

  1. Houston (from Seattle): Lonnie Johnson           CB                        Kentucky

The Texans will lineup 35-year-old Jonathan Joseph at one CB spot and Bradley Roby on a one-year contract at the other spot, they need CBs.  Johnson is a long, athletic CB who could give them depth for a year and then take over as a starter.

  1. Houston: Irv Smith Jr.           TE                        Alabama

It seems unlikely that Irv Smith Jr. will fall this far but he does in this mock draft.  The only real knock against Smith is that he isn’t ideal size for a TE.  At 6’2 242 lbs. he’s a smaller than a lot of the TEs teams look for these days.  He’s highly productive and the Texans have been missing that component in their offense.

  1. New England (from Chicago): Dawson Knox           TE                        Ole Miss

Knox is more potential than production because Ole Miss simply didn’t use him as much in the passing game.  He’s a good athlete with solid hands and while he needs some work to reach his potential, he has all the tools you look for, and New England is looking for them.

  1. Philadelphia: Greg Little           OT                        Ole Miss

Little was a highly regarded recruit out of high school and has started a lot of games but he hasn’t lived up to his hype.  He looks the part of a long, athletic LT and he can become that with the right coaching.  This is the Eagles taking a shot on potential, they don’t need him this year if Jason Peters stays healthy but that’s no given.  Little is a lottery ticket and if he pays off, they get a long-term LT at #57 overall.

  1. Dallas: Jonathan Abram           SS                         Mississippi St.

Dallas has needs on the defensive front and in the backfield and the value is at safety here.  Abram is an in the box safety who will come up and support the run well and bring a little attitude to the back end of the defense.  The Cowboys traded their first-round pick for WR Amari Cooper during the season so this is their first pick.  A DE is a possibility as they could take a shot on a guy like Jachai Polite who hasn’t looked good in the draft process but Abram is a good choice who can step in and help right away.  A TE is also possible so Jace Sternberger is also a name to remember here.

  1. Indianapolis: Khalen Saunders           DT                        Western Illinois

Saunders is small school prospect that made a name for himself in the run up to the draft.  He’s short but stout and would give the Colts someone to play as a NT on their defensive line.  He’s only 6’0 but he weighs 324 lbs. so he’s basically a fire hydrant that is nearly impossible to move.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers: Joejuan Williams           CB                        Vanderbilt

The Chargers need someone opposite Casey Heyward so they can continue to deploy Desmond King in the variety of ways they did last year to cover trouble spots.  Heyward is a good cover guy with average size while Williams is a 6’4 CB who would really help cover bigger WRs.

  1. Kansas City: Amani Hooker           S                           Iowa

The Chiefs let Eric Berry go this off season and while they signed Tyrann Mathieu they still aren’t very good at the other safety spot.  Mathieu is a versatile player and so is Hooker, he lined up as a safety/linebacker hybrid at Iowa last year.  He can cover and tackle and new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will love having these two safeties.

  1. New Orleans: Erik McCoy           C                          Texas A&M

The Saints traded their first-round pick this season in last year’s draft to move up to take DE Marcus Davenport.  Luckily this team isn’t in need of a lot of things although it would really help if Davenport gets healthy and actually gives them some help at DE so Cameron Jordan doesn’t have to do it all himself again.  One thing they do need is a new center with the unexpected retirement of Max Unger.  The Saints only go as far as Drew Brees takes them and keeping him healthy and upright is always the first goal on offense.  McCoy is a good-sized guy who needs a little more strength but the Saints have good guards who can help him hold up until he gets that strength.  He’s the best center left on the board and Drew Brees will welcome him with open arms.

  1. Kansas City (from LA Rams): Terry McLaurin           WR                      Ohio St.

This pick is the Chiefs hedging their bets on Tyreek Hill and his off the field issues.  If Hill faces a suspension or the team has to let him go McLaurin is a very good route-runner with great speed to fill the spot.  If Hill sticks around McLaurin is a special teams star and just another weapon for Patrick Mahomes.

  1. New England: Anthony Nelson           DE                       Iowa

The Patriots have never cared about having the speediest or twitchiest DEs, they care about guys who will stay disciplined and do their jobs.  They had to let Trey Flowers go because he costs too much money and while they brought in Michael Bennett, they need some young blood up front on defense.  Nelson is a solid edge rusher who can set the edge against the run and he can even slide inside on some downs, Belichick will love his versatility and consistency.

Round 3

  1. Arizona: Jachai Polite           DE                        Florida

Never a bad idea to add a pass rusher who has first-round talent but has fallen to round 3.

  1. Pittsburgh (from Oakland): Kelvin Harmon           WR               North Carolina St.

Harmon can play inside the slot or on the outside, good versatility to use alongside JuJu.

  1. San Francisco: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson           FS               Florida

The 49ers need playmakers in their secondary, they are simply not very good at safety.

  1. N.Y. Jets: David Edwards            OT                        Wisconsin

The Jets offensive line needs some reinforcements, Edwards could play a number of positions.

  1. Jacksonville: Jace Sternberger                         TE                        Texas A&M

Nick Foles had guys like Zack Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Trey Burton (at one time) in Philly, here he gets a TE.

  1. Tampa Bay: Taylor Rapp           S                           Washington

Todd Bowles knows a lot about secondary play and adding Ya-Sin in round 2 and Rapp here helps this team a lot.

  1. Denver: Tyree Jackson           QB                       Buffalo

John Elway has a type of QB he likes, tall and strong.  No one is taller or stronger than Jackson.  He needs some time but that gives Flacco some breathing room.

  1. Cincinnati: Dre’Mont Jones           DT                  Ohio St.

Geno Atkins isn’t getting any younger and Jones is really good value here.  If he had had better workouts, he would have gone a lot higher than this.

  1. New England (from Detroit): Ryan Finley            QB               North Carolina St.

The Patriots need to get someone to develop behind Brady.  Finley is an older prospect who fits the Brady style, he could execute New England’s passing attack without much trouble.

  1. Buffalo: Hakeem Butler           WR                        Iowa St.

The have John Brown, the deep threat, and Cole Beasley, the slot guy.  Zay Jones hasn’t been great so they need a big, powerful outside receiver who can win in the red zone, sounds like Butler.

  1. Green Bay: Tre Lamar            LB                         Clemson

Lamar is a two-down, run-stuffing kind of LB.  The Packers could use a thumper like him.

  1. Washington: Julian Love           CB                        Notre Dame

Josh Norman isn’t getting better with age.  Love isn’t the most impressive specimen but he can cover.

  1. Carolina: Vosean Joseph           LB                         Florida

The team lost Thomas Davis, an undersized weakside LB with impressive speed.  Joseph is an undersized weakside LB with impressive speed.

  1. Miami: Damian Harris           RB                        Alabama

Most teams don’t go with just one back anymore.  While Kenyan Drake is solid Harris would be a welcome addition to replace Frank Gore as his running mate.

  1. Atlanta: Daylon Mack           DT                        Texas A&M

Mack is a big dude who would look good inside next to Grady Jarrett and make his life a bit easier.

  1. Cleveland: Michael Dieter           OL                        Wisconsin

Dieter has some versatility to play all over the line and that’s something that could come in handy for Cleveland.

  1. Minnesota: David Montgomery           RB                        Iowa St.

He has a similar profile to Dalvin Cook so they would make a nice duo.  Cook has had some injury issues; Montgomery would mitigate that concern a bit.

  1. Tennessee: Devin Singletary           RB                        Florida Atlantic

Dion Lewis wasn’t as effective in Tennessee as he was in New England.  Singletary brings a similar skill set and would complement Derrick Henry well.

  1. Pittsburgh: Kahale Warring           TE                        San Diego St.

He’s a sleeper TE prospect who can block well and will bring more in the passing game than you think.  They lost Jesse James and Vance McDonald needs a running mate.

  1. Seattle: Darnell Savage Jr.           S                              Maryland

The Seahawks have a need in the deep middle with Earl Thomas officially gone and their safety group not being all that deep.  Savage is fast and plays centerfield quite well.

  1. Baltimore: D’Andre Walker           OLB                      Georgia

Walker was more of a DE at Georgia but Baltimore is used to turning DEs into OLBs, they did it very well with Terrell Suggs.

  1. Houston: Conner McGovern           OG                       Penn St.

Solid but unspectacular is exactly what you’re looking for in an OG late in round 3.  When your line is as bad as Houston’s was you take it and say thank you. (It’s weird, the Broncos have an OG named Connor McGovern too)

  1. Chicago: Miles Sanders           RB                        Penn St.

This is the Bears first pick in this draft because they traded both their first and second round picks.  They have a pretty solid roster but they traded away Jordan Howard and only replaced him with Mike Davis.  Tarik Cohen will pick up some slack but he’s not an every down back.  Sanders had the unfortunate responsibility of replacing Saquon Barkley at Penn St. so he didn’t get the credit he deserved for being as good as he was.  Sanders isn’t Barkley but he’s a solid back and he would handle some of the workload in Chicago just fine.  He’s a more dynamic player than Davis so I think Bears fans would love him.

  1. Detroit (from Philadelphia): Sean Bunting           CB                        Central Michigan

Solid corner from a small school with some skills to build on.  The Lions take a shot on potential.

  1. Indianapolis: JJ Arcega-Whiteside           WR                      Stanford

The Colts signed Devin Funchess to be the big WR in their offense, he’s terrible, they better draft one instead.  Arcega-Whiteside is a jump ball specialist.

  1. Dallas: Joe Jackson           DE                        Miami

The Cowboys are counting on Taco Charlton who hasn’t done much to this point in his career and Robert Quinn who hasn’t been good in a number of years opposite Demarcus Lawrence, reinforcements can’t hurt.

  1. L.A. Chargers: Tytus Howard            OT                        Alabama St.

Howard is a small school prospect who may need some time to adjust to the NFL.  For now, he can compete to be the RT and potentially be the replacement for Russell Okung at LT down the road.

  1. Kansas City: Austin Bryant            DE                        Clemson

The fourth member of Clemson’s defensive line would be a nice addition at DE where the Chiefs need help in their transition to Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

  1. N.Y. Jets (from New Orleans): Trayvon Mullen            CB                        Clemson

An inconsistent corner who has plus athletic ability.  He’s worth taking a flyer for a team that needs someone to push Brian Poole to his more comfortable nickel role.

  1. L.A. Rams: Renell Wren           DT                        Arizona St.

The Rams need a replacement for Ndamukong Suh.  Wren is a behemoth and he would complement Aaron Donald quite well.

  1. N.Y. Giants (traded twice): Riley Ridley            WR                      Georgia

The team needs an outside receiver and while it’s foolish to think Ridley can replace Odell Beckham, he is a fantastic route runner and he would easily be the third receiver behind Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate.

  1. Washington: Christian Miller           OLB                                 Alabama

Washington has had some success with Alabama defenders so they go to that well one more time to get some pass rush help.  Miller isn’t in the same category as many other Tide defenders but he’s solid.

  1. New England: Andy Isabella           WR                      UMass

The Patriots WR corps has looked better and while Julian Edelman is playing well, he is 32 years old and has had some injury issues.  Isabella would be fantastic addition for now and an eventual Edelman replacement.

  1. Jacksonville (from LA Rams): Darrell Henderson            RB                        Memphis

A smaller, speedier back to complement Fournette.  The team lost TJ Yeldon their change-of-pace back.

  1. Los Angeles Rams: Michael Jordan           OL                        Ohio St.

Jordan is 6’6 but he actually played center at Ohio St., he has some versatility and the Rams could use that right now.

  1. Carolina: Jaquan Johnson           S                           Miami

Carolina signed Eric Reid but they need someone who can play centerfield behind him.  Johnson can also hit a bit too.

  1. New England: Emanuel Hall           WR                      Missouri

Yep, two WRs in this round.  Hall is a outside speed receiver and that is something the Patriots are sorely lacking.

  1. Baltimore: Mecole Hardman           WR                      Georgia

Hardman is a smaller receiver who will excel in the slot and as a return man.  He may be a bit redundant with Willie Snead still there but the Ravens need WRs, he’s the complement to DK Metcalf and he may actually be more productive early compared to Metcalf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019 Iowa Spring Practice Primer-Defense

(This one took a little bit because there were some last minute notes to change things up, notably Logan Lee and Amani Jones.) 

2019 Iowa Defensive Spring Practice Primer

The Iowa defense takes some heavy losses from last season’s unit.  The entire starting defensive line either graduated (Parker Hesse, Matt Nelson and Sam Brincks) or left early for the draft (Anthony Nelson).  The linebacking group lost its steady leader Jack Hockaday.  And in the defensive backfield senior Jake Gervase graduated while Iowa’s Star linebacker/safety hybrid Amani Hooker left early for the NFL.  That’s the bad news, the good news is Hooker apparently changed Iowa’s defense for good as Kirk Ferentz acknowledged the 4-2-5 alignment is alive and well in Iowa City.  Under Ferentz, Iowa has traditionally stuck to its base 4-3 defense even in the midst of more and more teams spreading out their offense, the 4-2-5 gives Iowa a better chance to compete with those teams.  More good news is Iowa returns AJ Epenesa at DE, a guy who made 1st Team All-Big Ten without starting a single game last season, and four CBs that all started multiple games last year.  This defense has some serious returning talent and some guys that are primed to step up this season.   Let’s take a look.

Defensive Line

Starters: DE AJ Epenesa, DE Chauncey Golston, DT Cedrick Lattimore, DT Brady Reiff

Backups: DE John Waggoner, DE Nathan Nelson, DT Noah Shannon, DT Austin Schulte

Spring Roster Notables: DT Daviyon Nixon, DL Levi Duwa, DE Ben Subbert

Potential Impact Fall Freshmen:  DE Logan Lee

Even with the loss of all four starters from last season the new starting four looks pretty solid.  Epenesa led the team in sacks last season and made 1st team All-Big Ten without starting a game.  He’s a potential top 5 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft as an early entry candidate, the defensive line is built around him.  Golston really came on at the end of last season as he got more and more reps especially on passing downs.  It will be a big step up in snaps for him this year but he has the talent to be an excellent DE and with Epenesa taking the lion’s share of the offense’s attention he’ll be in a position to make plays.

Cedrick Lattimore has been a starter before and while he was replaced last season by Sam Brincks in the middle he still played and he can certainly hold his own.  Brady Reiff isn’t the biggest DT but that’s nothing new for Iowa.  He can be a penetrator and a disruptor; the key might be whether or not he can handle the work load.  The team doesn’t have the depth it had last season so these starters will play a lot of snaps.

The backups at DE are redshirt freshman John Waggoner and walk-on Nathan Nelson neither of whom has taken a single snap.  The backup DTs are redshirt freshman Noah Shannon who hasn’t played either and Austin Schulte.  Schulte spent bowl prep this last season playing offensive line and was moved back to defense due to a lack of bodies.  I expect Waggoner and Shannon to both lend depth as they learn and develop into starters down the road.  Levi Duwa was moved to defensive line after being a center for a while and Ben Subbert was a walk-on TE.  To say there is an open competition for playing time would be a massive understatement.

The three wildcards here are DT Daviyon Nixon, the former JUCO transfer who sat out last season for academic purposes, a guy not listed here at all, grad-transfer Zach VanValkenburg and Amani Jones a converted LB who is looking to make some noise as a pass rushing specialist at DE.  VanValkenburg won’t be on campus until the summer but Ferentz doesn’t take many graduate transfers so if he’s taking this one it’s because he expects him to play.  He was a good player at the D-II level so he should be fine as a backup to Epenesa and Golston.  Nixon is an internet legend at this point and he brings much needed size to the interior of the line but it’s time for him to show up and play.  The defense can really use his size in the middle and if he can live up to the lofty expectations, he could be a force. Jones has played multiple LB spots but he has mostly made his name on special teams.  He started at MLB the first game last season but was benched at halftime but he never complained, he simply starred on special teams.  Now he’s moving to DE to find playing time and to use his aggressiveness for the better.

It is highly unlikely a true freshman makes an impact if for no other reason than the guys Iowa generally recruits are not physically ready to play Big Ten football.  However, the Hawkeyes have announced that Logan Lee will begin his career at DE instead of at TE as expected.  This is a development because it seems unlikely the coaches would move Lee from TE to DE if they didn’t expect him to compete.  He may be the only one physically ready to at least provide some depth at DE.  The Hawkeyes do have four other freshmen coming in at DL in the fall (TJ McCall, Chris Reames, Jalen Hunt and Jake Karchinski).  Hopefully there is enough depth that they are not needed this year.

Linebacker

Starters: OLB Nick Niemann, MLB Kristian Welch, WLB Djimon Colbert

Backups: OLB Barrington Wade, MLB Dillon Doyle, WLB Amani Jones (listed here to start spring)

Spring Roster Notables: Jayden McDonald, Seth Benson, Logan Klemp, Jestin Jacobs, Willie O’Hara

Potential Impact Fall Freshmen:  Jack Campbell, Yahweh Jeudy

The Linebacking crew will be an interesting group this season.  With Iowa using the 4-2-5 alignment more there is less need for the third LB spot and that means less reps available.  The team still has plenty of bodies so it will be interesting to see who plays the most.  As of now Nick Niemann returns as the starter at OLB while Djimon Colbert returns on the weakside.  Colbert didn’t begin the year as the starting WLB last year but he ended it there.  Welch was the starting MLB last spring but by the start of the season Amani Jones took the job.  Then Jones had an awful start in the first half of the first game and lost his job to the now graduated Jack Hockaday.  When Hockaday got hurt it was Welch who stepped back in for a short time.  Welch can play multiple positions but when Iowa drops to two LB it’s more than likely it will be Niemann and Colbert on the field.

Barrington Wade and Amani Jones played plenty last season both on defense and special teams.  Jones is listed at LB to start spring practice but he’s already moved to DE so this list is a little behind.  Redshirt freshman Dillon Doyle should get some reps at MLB as Welch is hardly an established star there.  Jayden McDonald, Seth Benson and Logan Klemp were freshman last season who expect to compete for snaps but not everyone is going to get to play unless some of them can show they can cover like a safety and take some snaps away from the Star position.  Jestin Jacobs is a true freshman early enrollee but he had surgery on his shoulder and will miss spring practice.  He’s one of the guys who is athletic enough to be coverage LB if needed.  Willie O’Hara is a junior college transfer who might fight for time but will probably have to make his presence felt on special teams.  I think Jack Campbell and Yahweh Jeudy both redshirt but I wasn’t expecting Dillon Doyle and Seth Benson to get as long of a look as they did last season so anything is possible.

Defensive Backs

Starters:  CB Matt Hankins, CB Michael Ojemudia, FS Geno Stone, SS Kaevon Merriweather

Backups: CB Julius Brents, CB Riley Moss, FS Jack Koerner, SS John Milani

Spring Roster Notables: CB DJ Johnson, DB Henry Marchese, S Dallas Craddieth, DB Devonte Young, DB Terry Roberts, CB Daraun McKinney

Potential Impact Fall Freshmen: Jamari Harris, Dane Belton, Sebastian Castro

This is where the fun begins.  Iowa has four CBs with starting experience; Matt Hankins, Michael Ojemudia, Julius Brents and Riley Moss.  However, there is only one safety with any experience and that’s Geno Stone who started last season after the team began using Amani Hooker in the Star position.  Phil Parker seems to be high on Kaevon Merriweather at safety but he has limited time on special teams and basically no time playing on defense.  For now, there are two walk-ons listed as the backups at safety but this defensive backfield seems like it might be pretty fluid.  The reason I say that is that Ojemudia has been mentioned as a possible Star position player and both Brents and Moss were recruited as safeties but became corners.

I like the versatility of the guys on the roster and Iowa showed last season that they aren’t afraid to mix things up defensively, I’ve only been waiting 19 years for this.  Ferentz said the 4-2-5 look is here to stay but that doesn’t mean the Star position, as Hooker played it, has to be the only way it’s implemented.  Iowa’s recruiting has brought them some versatile defensive backs and with guys like Ojemudia, Brents and Moss all capable of pass coverage and run support the five defensive back look could take on many variations.  I would love to see Iowa run out a five-man defensive backfield of Hankins, Ojemudia, Brents, Moss and Stone.  DJ Johnson has also been mentioned as a possible Star position player so his versatility seems to match up.

S Dallas Craddieth was a highly rated player in last year’s class so if Phil Parker can work his magic there’s no telling what he could be.  Terry Roberts is a CB while Devonte Young is a converted WR but he’s really a special teams stud who likely won’t play much on defense.  Daraun McKinney was one of the late Phil Parker special finds on signing day and he’s here for spring practice, that bodes well for him. Out of the three incoming freshmen in the fall I really like Sebastian Castro, if the Star position has a lasting future, I think it could be Castro, his high school film is impressive.  Belton and Harris add depth. Just a note, Henry Marchese is listed as a DB for the spring, a position switch from WR last season.  However, it looks like that switch may not have taken as it’s been reported he’s back working with the WRs.

Punter

I don’t talk punters much but Iowa has an incoming grad transfer Michael Sleep-Dalton coming from Arizona St.  They say it’s an open competition but it better not be.  Sleep-Dalton should win the job easily.  Two years of watching Colten Rastetter is two too many.  Maybe if Ryan Gersonde gets healthy and figures out how to be good it will be a competition but I’m not holding my breath.  If I were a betting man, I would bet the loudest cheer for any Hawkeye in the opening game next season will be for Sleep-Dalton when he launches his first good punt of the year.

 

 

2019 Iowa Spring Practice Primer-Offense

2019 Iowa Hawkeyes Spring Practice Primer

Offense

The Iowa Hawkeye football team has started spring practice and they do so having to replace some key seniors and four excellent underclassmen who left early for the NFL Draft.  There are some areas of the team that are pretty set and in solid shape; QB, OT, CB.  There are some positions that are clearly in a state of flux; TE, S, interior OL, second string DL.  Spring practice might give some clarity to a few of these positions but given the fact that Iowa may need some of the incoming freshmen to contribute, it certainly won’t answer all of the questions.  The program released its pre-spring two-deeps, they will likely look different by the end of spring and will almost certainly look different in the fall by week 1.

On offense Iowa returns its starting QB Nate Stanley for year three under center.  That should help stabilize things as other areas are in flux.  Also, both starting OTs return and they are top-notch players Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs.  The team also returns its top three players at RB; Mekhi Sargent, Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin along with FB Brady Ross.  The team needs more production out of them but that might be more about health and picking one of them to be the primary back as opposed to their talent.  The interior of the offensive line is a mystery with only Cole Banwart a for-sure starter and even where he starts is a question mark.  The receiving corps has to replace the productive Nick Easley and the TE group is almost a complete mystery minus Nate Wieting’s blocking.

Let’s take a look at where the Hawkeyes stand right now and where things could potentially end up.

Quarterback

Starter: Nate Stanley

Backup: Peyton Mansell

Spring Roster Notables: Spencer Petras, Alex Padilla

Nate Stanley returns for his third year as the starting QB and while that gives the offense an experienced hand running things it’s time for Stanley to show more consistency game-to-game.  He’s put up very solid stats each of the last two seasons when you look at them at the end of the year but he’s inconsistent week-to-week.  He looks like an NFL caliber player one or two weeks at a time and then he has a game where you think he should be benched.  As a third-year starter this season he needs to be the better player every week and with some question marks on offense around him he needs to raise the game of the players around him.  Peyton Mansell enters spring listed as the backup all by himself.  Last year freshman Spencer Petras was often listed with him and while he retained his redshirt, he did play a few plays.  Petras should give Mansell a run for his money for the backup job but it’s highly unlikely either sees significant action unless something happens to Stanley.  Iowa has some creampuffs on the non-conference schedule and it would be wise for Ferentz to give both these guys some reps.  True freshman Alex Padilla is already on campus so he’ll get to learn the offense starting now but it would take something crazy to happen for him not to redshirt this year.

Running Back/Fullback

Starters:  RB Mekhi Sargent                       FB Brady Ross

Backups: RB Toren Young                           FB Joe Ludwig

Spring Roster Notables: RB Ivory Kelly-Martin, RB Henry Geil, RB Shadrick Byrd

Potential Impact Fall Freshman:  RB Tyler Goodson

Iowa returns much of its backfield from last year’s team and that’s both good news and bad news.  Mekhi Sargent took over as the starter at the end of last season after the position sort of rotated through three guys; Sargent, Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin.  Kelly-Martin was supposed to be the starter last season but he ended up with a nagging injury he seemingly never got over.  Young is the bigger back of the three and brings a power game and I was glad to hear Kirk Ferentz acknowledge in his spring press conference that Young gave them more than they gave him credit for (I’m paraphrasing).  Young was underappreciated and the team would be better off using him more to establish the power running game early.  Kelly-Martin isn’t listed on the spring two-deeps because he is recovering from an injury (it’s a theme).  He’s a talented back but if he’s playing at anything less than 100%, they are doing a disservice to him and to the team if they use him.  Brady Ross returns at FB and he’s a bruiser that can actually get some yards and catch a pass, he’s a sneaky weapon when used right.  That’s four guys with plenty of playing time experience, it would be good for the Hawkeyes if one of them seized the job.  Henry Geil is a bigger back who redshirted last season and now he’s going to have to fight off some young guys while trying to break through the top trio of established runners.  Shadrick Byrd is an incoming freshman already on campus, he was a late add to the recruiting class but he’s getting a head start on learning the offense.  Tyler Goodson is the one we should be waiting for.  He’s a talented back with the ability to hit the home run and make big plays.  I think Goodson finds a role in the fall and I also think Iowa loses a RB to transfer between the end of spring practice and the start of fall camp.

Wide Receiver

Starters:  Brandon Smith                            Ihmir Smith-Marsette

Backups: Tyrone Tracy Jr.                          Nico Ragaini

Spring Roster Notables:  Max Cooper, Calvin Lockett, Samson Evans

To say that this team needs production from its WRs this season would be a massive understatement.  With Nick Easley, TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant gone Nate Stanley is going to have to find some new targets to rely on.  Brandon Smith started to show his talent last year and became a legitimate receiving threat.  Ihmir Smith-Marsette showed he’s a valuable returner and can be very dangerous with the ball in his hands.  They need these two to step up and be the primary playmakers in the passing game.  The rest of the WR group has produced virtually nothing on the field at this point so their contributions are pure speculation.  Kirk Ferentz mentioned Nico Ragaini as the leading contender to take over the slot position vacated by Easley.  While he only played sparingly last year as a true freshman, he was an early enrollee so this is his second spring practice with the team and that should help.  Max Cooper played some but he’s banged up at the moment so he may lose some ground.  The real wildcard is Tyrone Tracy Jr.  Tracy is an electric athlete with playmaking skills the team absolutely has to find a way to use.  They tried a little last year but he didn’t play much and they never found the right opportunity to use him.  If he can find a rhythm with Stanley, he could be an important part of the offense.  Calvin Lockett is a big WR who redshirted last year and I’m listing Samson Evans as a WR even though he was a RB last year and I have no real idea where he ends up playing.  It’s possible Lockett finds himself a role as a backup on the outside due to his size.  I would be a little shocked if Evans plays this year with Ragaini, Tracy and Cooper all likely to find time in the slot.

Tight End

Starters: Nate Wieting                                Shaun Beyer

Backups: Tommy Kujawa                            Drew Cook

Potential Impact Fall Freshmen:  Josiah Miamen, Sam LaPorta

No position lost more this off season than TE.  TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant are irreplaceable but that doesn’t mean Iowa won’t line up in two TE formations plenty this season.  The unenviable task of taking over for Fant and Hockenson is going to mainly fall on senior Nate Wieting, who has the most playing experience and junior Shaun Beyer, who has the most potential to be a playmaker.  Wieting has mainly been a blocking TE when he plays and he’ll continue to be counted on to excel but he will be asked to contribute more in the passing game.  He can catch so he should be fine.  Beyer is the more athletic pass catcher but he’s coming off an injury that kept him out a lot last season so no one knows for sure what he’ll bring.  For now, senior Drew Cook, a former QB and the son of former Iowa legend Marv Cook, will get a chance to be the third TE.  The other TE listed on the depth chart is walk-on Tommy Kujawa which is why TE is the position most likely to see an incoming freshman find playing time this fall, the spring roster doesn’t provide much confidence.  Josiah Miamen might be a dynamic enough pass catcher to find playing time if no one steps up in the passing game.  Sam LaPorta is a bit undersized and he probably needs some time to fill out before he should be counted on to contribute.  One name I mentioned last year at this time was walk-on Ben Subbert as a potential future contributor at TE but he has since been moved to defensive line, I would guess due to the lack of bodies on that side.  (Last minute change, it looks like true freshman Logan Lee is coming in as a DE in the fall not at TE).  

Offensive Line

Starters:

LT Alaric Jackson, LG Landan Paulsen, C Cole Banwart, RG Levi Paulsen, RT Tristan Wirfs

Backups:

LT Mark Kallenberger, LG Cody Ince, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Kyler Schott, RT Jack Plumb

Spring Roster Notables: Coy Kirkpatrick, Jeff Jenkins, Ezra Miller, Justin Britt

The edge is set with starting OTs Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs returning to start for a third year. Both guys are All-Conference level guys and even potential All-American candidates. Backup OT Mark Kallenberger is one of the more talked about talents on the offensive line and Jack Plumb made the two-deeps at RT as a redshirt freshman, that’s impressive.  With incoming freshman like Ezra Miller and eventually Tyler Endres the OT position is a deep as it has been in a long time at Iowa.

It’s the interior of the offensive line that has some sorting out to do.  It might come down to whether or not Tyler Linderbaum is ready to step in at center after having only played the position during bowl prep and this spring.  He was a DT last year until bowl prep and now he could take over in the pivot.  If Linderbaum can secure the position than Cole Banwart can return to playing guard, if Linderbaum isn’t ready Banwart will have to hold down the middle and the both guard spots are up for grabs.  Levi Paulsen is the most likely player to start at one guard spot simply because he has the most experience.  He has started once at guard and once at tackle in his career and played many other times.  His twin brother Landan will compete for one guard spot and likely backup at both.  It’s possible Kallenberger gets in on the competition at OG but he’s built more like an OT and with plenty of options on the inside, if he’s not comfortable playing there the team won’t have to force him.

Jeff Jenkins is the third OC for now and he’s still developing there.  Cody Ince and Kyler Schott have the backup OG spots for now but these things are fluid.  I’m interested to see what happens with Coy Kirkpatrick because he was listed as a backup at OG last spring but never saw the field.  With the team needing depth on the defensive line and some more talented freshmen o-linemen coming in I wonder if Kirkpatrick could be a candidate to move over.  True freshmen Ezra Miller and Justin Britt are already on campus but Britt won’t compete because he’s coming off an ACL tear.  Miller already looks like a college OT so if he picks up the offense and gets his technique down the OT position will get even deeper.  It’s unlikely Miller makes an impact but it’s not impossible.

Kicker

I don’t usually talk about kickers but Iowa is losing Miguel Recinos who was very good for the last two years.  It’s a competition between one-time hero Keith Duncan (remember the Michigan game) and Caleb Shudak.  I don’t care who wins the competition as long as they are better at kicking than our current punters are at punting.

 

 

 

 

2019 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

2019 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

This is my new mock draft; post NFL combine and after the first wave of free agency.  The combine brought some clarity to certain positions and gave guys a chance to enhance their draft stock (i.e. Montez Sweat, Noah Fant) or send their stock plummeting (Jachai Polite).  Free agency has a huge effect on the draft as teams fill needs with veterans thus taking some positions off the board especially in the early rounds.  The clearest examples of early round changes due to free agent signings are likely to be the Green Bay Packers no longer needing OLB help as they signed Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith to huge contracts.  Also, the Bills signed WRs John Brown, Cole Beasley and Andre Roberts along with C Mitch Morse, those are two major areas of need that have been addressed. There are teams that have made some curious moves, I’m looking at you Broncos and Giants.  And some individual signings that were over the top, Nick Foles got $88 million while Landon Collins got $86 million.  I only mention this stuff because it makes me wonder what kind of decision making these teams will make in the draft.  Will Denver continue to confound?  Do the Giants have a plan or are they just throwing darts at a board?  Why did Washington and Jacksonville overpay for Collins and Foles?  What does it all say about their draft strategy?  This is what makes mock drafts so hard and so interesting.  Here we go with 2.0.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (3-13): Kyler Murray QB   Oklahoma

I will continue to vehemently disagree with the wisdom of this selection and the fact that it will lead the Cardinals to trading Josh Rosen but there is too much smoke for this to not be the selection.  The Cardinals let Steve Keim make the move to fire his own coaching choice from a year ago Steve Wilks and to hire a guy that got fired from his alma mater in Kliff Kingsbury.  If you’re going to do that you might as well go all in and give him his QB choice.  Murray is short, fast and he will understand Kingsbury’s offense but the Cardinals offense still needs a lot of help.  They got two new O-linemen in RT Marcus Gilbert and OG JR Sweezy so that’s a start but they need more help.  Larry Fitzgerald still needs help at WR (a healthy Christian Kirk will help but free agent Kevin White doesn’t count) and the team could use a starting caliber TE (the corpse of Charles Clay is not it).  They are all in on the Kingsbury train if they go with Murray and while Kingsbury is known for his version of the Air Raid offense, he should really consider how best to utilize RB David Johnson regardless of who lines up at QB.

  1. San Francisco 49ers (4-12): Nick Bosa DE   Ohio St.

This may seem like a strange choice considering the 49ers just traded for Dee Ford from Kansas City and gave him a massive contract extension but this team understands where the value is at this point.  No one is happier that the Cardinals took Murray first than the 49ers because it means the best talent in the draft falls in their lap.  Bosa is a star pass rusher and you can never have too many of those.  This means they can let Solomon Thomas line up inside next to DeForest Bruckner and have Ford and Bosa flanking them, that’s a pretty fearsome front four.  The 49ers won’t let need trump talent and Bosa is the best player in the draft, they won’t overthink it they will just send flowers and a thank you card to the Cardinals for passing on the top talent in the draft.

  1. New York Jets (4-12): Quinnen Williams DT   Alabama

The Jets have made a splash with a trade for OG Kelechi Osemele and two major free agent signings LB CJ Mosley and RB Le’Veon Bell.  The hiring of Gregg Williams to run the Jets defense means they will likely shift to a 4-3 base look with Mosley at MLB flanked by Avery Williamson and Darron Lee.  The problem is up front where only Leonard Williams is a true talent up front.  Williams played end in the 3-4 scheme but he’s best suited to play DT in the 4-3 alignment.  This pick comes down to Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen and while Allen is a top edge rusher, he’s better suited as an OLB and pairing Quinnen Williams with Leonard Williams in the middle would be a hell of a foundation to build the new defense around.  Quinnen Williams is a freak athlete and he and the other Williams would cause massive headaches for opponents.  They would also keep CJ Mosley clean at MLB which would help him out.  A lot of teams look to build their defense from the inside out and with Williams and Williams at DT, Mosley at MLB and Jamal Adams at safety the middle of the Jets defense would be quite good.

  1. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Josh Allen DE/OLB   Kentucky

Jon Gruden says pass rushers are hard to find and it’s even tougher when you trade an elite one like Khalil Mack before the season.  Here Gruden lucks into an elite pass rusher when Allen falls because the Cardinals take Murray first overall.  Allen is a bit like Mack in the fact that he can line up all over and rush from anywhere.  He can stand up and play OLB or put his hand in the dirt and be a DE.  He’s not the biggest DE in the world but the Raiders pass rush was comically bad last season and Allen would go a long way towards fixing that.  The team has spent a lot of money to get the offense some weapons; trading for Antonio Brown and giving him a new deal, signing Tyrell Williams to a huge deal and taking a flyer on JJ Nelson.  Signing OT Trent Brown is a solid investment in Derek Carr’s health even if it means one of their two OT draft picks from last year isn’t sticking at the position.  I’m still not completely certain what Gruden is trying to do in Oakland but he shouldn’t overthink this too much, just take the gift that falls into your lap.

  1. Tamp Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Rashan Gary DL   Michigan

If you’re reading the signs in Tampa Bay it looks like the team is going to transition from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense.  They signed OLB Shaq Barrett from Denver and he’s an edge rusher and they also brought in ILB Deone Buchanan formerly of the Cardinals who played under Bruce Arians and Todd Bowls when they were in Arizona together.  There are a couple of aging defensive linemen that look like candidates to move on too.  DT Gerald McCoy is a stellar talent but he’s on the wrong side of 30, costs a ton of money and isn’t a great fit in a 3-4.  Jason Pierre-Paul fits that description too.  Rashan Gary went the combine and showed his incredible athleticism which every loved but it also makes everyone wonder why he wasn’t very productive at Michigan.  Well, he’s a tweener.  He’s not big enough to be a true DT and he’s not fast enough to be a true edge rusher, that actually makes him perfect to play DE in a 3-4.  The team drafted Vita Vea last year in the first round and he’s perfect for the NT position so he and Gary would form a nice tandem upfront for the Buccaneers.

  1. New York Giants (5-11): Dwayne Haskins QB   Ohio St.

While the Raiders and Broncos have both made some curious moves it is the Giants that are truly confounding.  They let Landon Collins walk (can’t blame them considering the Redskins overpaid him), they traded Olivier Vernon (he wasn’t a great fit at OLB for their new defense), then they traded their best player who they just signed last year, Odell Beckham Jr. for a 1st and 3rd round draft picks and Jabrill Peppers.  It looked like the team was gearing up for a full rebuild but they seem committed to Eli Manning for this next year.  They signed WR Golden Tate who is over 30 to a big contract and his best spot is in the slot where they already have Sterling Shepard.  They also signing Antoine Bethea who is the definition of an aging safety.  I’m giving them Dwayne Haskins because they have to get Eli’s replacement at some point and I can’t tell what the hell they are doing.  Haskins is the best QB available in the draft, I don’t care what Kliff Kingsbury thinks.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Jawaan Taylor OT   Florida

The Jaguars are finally moving on from Blake Bortles and while I agree with the signing of Nick Foles, I’m not sure giving him 4-year $88 million contract was necessary.  Foles has had some success the last few years filling in for Carson Wentz but as a full-time starter teams are going to have more time to prepare for him.  This team needs to lean on Leonard Fournette and their running game (assuming they can keep him healthy) and their defense.  The offensive line will benefit from getting Cam Robinson back from injury at LT but they still need an upgrade at RT.  Taylor is a beast and he will excel at RT opening holes for Fournette and keeping Foles upright.  Taylor looked great at the combine and really made a move up the board, he’s longer and more athletic than Jonah Williams and a more physical player than Andre Dillard.  With a solid offensive line and no more Bortles to mess things up the Jags might actually be a threat in the AFC again.

  1. Detroit Lions (6-10): Montez Sweat DE   Mississippi St.

Yes, the Lions signed DE Trey Flowers to a massive free agent contract but while Flowers is a huge upgrade, he’s not really a speedy edge rusher.  Matt Patricia will put him to good use but he needs someone else to help juice up the pass rush.  Sweat is exactly the type of versatile defender Patricia will love because he can rush from all over the field.  He’s a chess piece and while Flowers and incumbent DE Kerry Hyder hold down the edges Sweat will get after the QB.  Sweat showed his elite athleticism at the combine and while his pass rushing moves could use some refinement, he will be an excellent pass rushing specialist from day one.  He’ll grow into a more complete player being coached by Patricia and being around Flowers.

  1. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Ed Oliver DT   Houston

The Bills have done some work in free agency especially on the offensive line (C Mitch Morse, RT Ty Nsekhe) and at WR (John Brown, Cole Beasley, Andre Roberts).  One thing they need to look at is DT.  Stalwart Kyle Williams retired after a long career in Buffalo and Star Lotulelei is 29 years old.  Harrison Phillips is a nice player but not really a playmaker.  Oliver came into this season being compared to Aaron Donald, he’s an undersized DT with extreme quickness and a knack for getting into the backfield.  He had some injuries this season and he’s been overshadowed by the rise of Quinnen Williams and Rashan Gary but Oliver is still a top prospect.  He would give the Bills defense a disruptor in the middle and make things a little easier on Jerry Hughes rushing from the outside.  This team made some nice moves (I really like the John Brown/Cole Beasley combo, they will make Josh Allen better) and with the Dolphins in rebuild mode the Bills and Jets can fight it out for second place in the AFC East.

  1. Denver Broncos (6-10): Clelin Ferrell OLB/DE   Clemson

John Elway must have lucked into a great defense and Peyton Manning at QB at the same time because from what I can see now he has no idea what he’s doing.  He traded for Joe Flacco, who isn’t any better than the QB he signed last off season, he signed a below average RT Ju’Wuan James to a ridiculously overpriced contract and he gave a three-year deal to a 30-year-old CB/S hybrid.  I can’t quite figure out just how crazy this pick will be.  Elway could take the QB he likes, Drew Lock, but he has to have some PTSD from his previous QB picks, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch.  The team took Bradley Chubb last year to pair with Von Miller but Miller is 30 and is quite expensive.  The team also lost Shaq Barrett and Shane Ray so they have little to no depth on the edge.  Ferrell has some work to do but he’s a fantastic athlete with some nice pass rushing skills.  Truly, I have no idea what Elway will do but that’s because I probably try to hard to make sense of things.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10): Devin White LB   LSU

I’m sticking with my pick of Devin White here because the Bengals LB corps is a disaster overall.  They are bringing back Preston Brown to man the middle but Vontaze Burfict was just cut.  Nick Vigil isn’t great on the other side of Brown either and this team has no depth whatsoever.  White is a tackling machine who could line up next to Brown on either side and he’d be a massive upgrade for the Bengals.  The one thing to keep in mind here is new coach Zac Taylor is the unknown.  He comes from Sean McVay’s coaching staff in L.A. but he’s young and has no real track record so who knows what he’ll want.  If he doesn’t like Andy Dalton this could be a spot for a QB or this could be the dark horse to trade up for Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins, it’s hard to say for sure.

  1. Green Bay Packers (6-9-1): TJ Hockenson TE   Iowa

I’ve had the Packers taking an OLB here because Clay Matthews is old and a free agent and Nick Perry can’t stay healthy.  Well the Packers beat me to the punch by cutting Perry lose and signing not one but two 26-year-old edge players Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith.  So much for them drafting Brian Burns.  Instead this team gets Aaron Rodgers some much needed help on offense.  With Randall Cobb off to Dallas the team needs someone to help in the middle of the field and Hockenson can certainly to that.  He’s also a better blocker than his former Iowa teammate Noah Fant which makes him more valuable in the run game and keeping Rodgers healthy when they go max protect.  The Packers still have Jimmy Graham but he’s not the player he once was and he’s never been a great blocker.  The Packers love Iowa guys and Rodgers will love having Hockenson at his disposal.

  1. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Jonah Williams  OT   Alabama

The Dolphins are Tanking for Tua or Justin Herbert or Jake Fromm or some other QB they fall in love with this season.  They signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to hold down the fort for this year, not win too many games, and then become the veteran backup the next season.  If their strategy works it would be best to use this draft to set up some help on offense for their new QB next season.  Williams doesn’t have ideal length to play OT but he’s a good technician and with Laremy Tunsil at LT Williams can slide into the RT job.  If he ends up in over his head there, he can slide in at LG next season next to Tunsil.  It’s not going to be a quick rebuild for Brian Flores and the Dolphins so taking some guys with potential who need a little work isn’t a bad idea.

  1. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Greedy Williams CB   LSU

The Falcons have some glaring needs; RT, DT and DE.  While CB doesn’t look like a glaring need with Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver set to start, they really do need some help.  They lost Robert Alford and Brian Poole in the off season and they don’t have much behind Trufant and Oliver.  This may be a case of someone being far to valuable to not take here.  Williams is a big CB with amazing athletic skills.  If he’s still around at 14 he’s a steal.  Dan Quinn cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator in Seattle where they liked their CBs long and tall.  Williams can team with Oliver to give the team a couple of bigger CBs going forward.  The defensive line may be a bigger need but it’s also a deeper position they could address in the next round.

  1. Washington Redskins (7-9): Drew Lock QB   Missouri

The Redskins have to decide if they want to start over at QB this year or wait until next season.  The likelihood is that Alex Smith will miss the season and I can’t see him being a viable starter again if he makes it back after that.  The team traded for Case Keenum from Denver and he can hold down the spot for the year but I think the team is ready to grab a guy for the future.  Lock checks all the boxes as far as size, arm strength and ability to make all NFL throws.  He’s not a can’t miss prospect but he’s a pretty good one who is probably good enough to beat out Keenum but won’t be forced to play if he’s not ready.  The Redskins will have time to ease him in as they shouldn’t be expected to compete this year.  Also, they will get back the RB they drafted last year to be their bell cow, Darrius Guice.  Guice will have Adrian Peterson back to compete with but they should share the load and Guice will eventually take over the role.  Lock is a guy that can get the ball deep and keep defenses off the line of scrimmage to open things up for Guice and Peterson.

  1. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Brian Burns DE   Florida St.

The Panthers could go a number of directions here with an OT, a WR or a DE.  They re-signed RT Daryl Williams who is coming off an injury and they cut LT Matt Kalil which leaves Taylor Moton to man he left side.  At WR they could replace Devin Funchess with any number of big, powerful WRs in this draft but there is depth there.  Burns would be the type of speedy edge rusher they need on their defense.  Their most effective pass rusher was the ageless wonder Julius Peppers last year but he finally decided to retire.  No one on their defense scares anyone from a pass rushing standpoint and Burns would bring that element as he’s a skilled edge defender.  I won’t be surprised if they take OT Andre Dillard here given Cam Newton’s health issues but they seem to have some confidence in Moton after he filled in well last year when injuries piled up.  DE has been a need for the past few years, maybe this is the year they finally pull the trigger.

  1. New York Giants (from Cleveland): Garrett Bradbury OC   NC State

The Giants have actually made two trades with the Browns, the first trade was sending Olivier Vernon to Cleveland for OG Kevin Zeitler.  No matter who lines up at QB for the Giants they have to get better up front.  Last year they signed LT Nate Solder and drafted LG Will Hernandez, now they have traded for Zeitler at RG.  That leaves C and RT as needs up front and Bradbury showed at the combine that he’s the best interior line prospect in the draft and he’ll be a day one starter at C.  Having a line with Solder, Hernandez, Bradbury and Zeitler would really help the Giants offense overall even if they still need a RT.  Saquon Barkley would find rushing lanes much easier to come by and the QB will have far more time in the pocket.  They could go for Dalton Risner or Cody Ford at RT but I like Bradbury’s upside.

  1. Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1): Cody Ford OL   Oklahoma

The Vikings very nearly lost their top free agent LB Anthony Barr but he had a last-minute change of heart and returned instead of signing with the Jets.  Now instead of trying to find a replacement for him they can look to fix their biggest hole which is on the offensive line.  They are especially weak at OG and while Ford could play RT the Vikings can draft him with the knowledge, he could be a Pro Bowl caliber OG.  Ford is an absolute beast at 338 lbs. and should make Kirk Cousins life easier and open some huge holes for the run game.

  1. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Noah Fant TE   Iowa

The Titans are coming to a crossroads with QB Marcus Mariota.  He will be playing this season on his fifth-year option on his rookie contract so the team will need to decide what to do going forward.  They need to put the best offense around him they can to assess him for the future.  Mariota has always been his best when he uses TE Delanie Walker but Walker missed last season and he’s already 34 years old meaning he is unlikely to return to his top form.  Fant is an elite athlete and he showed it at the combine.  He’ll give the Titans a top pass catching option over the middle and down the seam.  The team also added slot receiver Adam Humphries so if Corey Davis is healthy Mariota will have no excuses moving forward.  The line is solid, the run game is solid and the receiving corps would be seriously upgraded with Fant at TE.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1): Devin Bush ILB   Michigan

The Steelers offense is in transition with JuJu Smith-Schuster taking over as the #1 WR with Antonio Brown traded away and while James Connor took over at RB last year, this year there is no waiting around to see if Le’Veon Bell comes back.  The signing of Donte Moncrief and Eli Rogers likely means the team doesn’t intend to draft a WR early (they also have James Washington to go with Smith-Schuster).  They should address their defense and they have failed to adequately replace Ryan Shazier at ILB.  Devin Bush is in the same mold as an undersized yet fast LB and he would be a difference maker for them.

  1. Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Nasir Adderley S   Delaware

The Seahawks haven’t been major players in free agency only making a small deal with veteran OG Mike Iupati and their major splash was signing a new kicker.  They have re-signed their own guys like Mychal Kendricks, KJ Wright, DJ Fluker and they franchise tagged their best pass rusher Frank Clark.  They could use a big WR but that has never really seemed like a priority for them.  They seem happy with George Fant and Germain Ifedi duking it out at RT.  Some help in the secondary would be welcomed with the loss of Earl Thomas in free agency and the fact they haven’t adequately replaced Kam Chancellor.  Adderley has flown under the radar but his performance at the Senior Bowl got him noticed and given Deionte Thompson has some question marks (wrist injury, playmaking ability) Adderley looks like a strong candidate to be the first safety off the board.  He isn’t big but he’ll make plays and the Seahawks could use a little of that in the deep middle of their defense.

  1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): DK Metcalf WR   Ole Miss

After Metcalf’s ridiculous performance at the combine in the athletic testing it’s hard to see him falling this far but he’s not the most fluid receiver and he needs work on his technique.  He’s not an experienced route runner and he’s had some injury issues so it’s not impossible to see him going this low.  The Ravens are rebuilding their WR corps for the second year in a row.  John Brown left in free agency and Michael Crabtree was released because his production didn’t match his salary.  New QB Lamar Jackson never had any chemistry with Brown so it’s time to get him his own WR.  Metcalf is a jump ball type of outside receiver so his large catch radius should help Jackson who isn’t the most accurate passer.  The team has three solid TEs and slot receiver Willie Snead so Metcalf’s ability on the outside would be a welcome addition.

  1. Houston Texans (11-5): Andre Dillard OT   Washington St.

I’m not sure if Dillard will last this long considering he is the best pass blocking OT in the draft but I do know the Texans should be taking the best OT left at this point, doesn’t matter who it is.  Julie’n Davenport, Seantrel Henderson, Martinas Rankins, and Roderick Johnson, that’s who the Texans currently have at OT on their depth chart.  Dillard steps in immediately as a starter because this line gave up over 60 sacks last season and Deshaun Watson shouldn’t have to endure that punishment any more.  Let’s be honest, Watson can’t endure that punishment much longer if the team hopes for him to be their future at QB.  The Texans were a good team last year despite a bad offensive line but that is the exception not the rule, if the want to stay ahead of the Colts, Titans and Jaguars they need to block better up front.

  1. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago): Byron Murphy CB   Washington

The Raiders had a lot of work to do on their roster going into the off season and they did some of it in free agency.  Their WR corps was a mess but the additions of Brown, Williams and Nelson corrected that problem.  I gave them Josh Allen for the pass rush earlier and now they need someone to help cover in the secondary.  I prefer Deandre Baker but Gruden feels like a Murphy sort of guy.  They have Gareon Conley who they hope will get better and Nick Nelson who I’m sure won’t get much better.  Murphy has starter talent and potential to be pretty good down the line.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): Dalton Risner OL   Kansas St.

The Eagles window to compete for the Super Bowl is still open if Carson Wentz could just stay healthy, however, this team has some age to it and that window won’t be open long if the team doesn’t get some young talent.  Risner could step in right now at LG if Jason Peters can get healthy and stay healthy at LT.  If he can’t Risner could play RT and Lane Johnson can slid to LT now and in the future.  The team has other issues but keeping Wentz upright has to be priority #1.  They do need help at LB but unless one of the Devins (White or Bush) is still around they would be better off waiting until round 2, the value just isn’t there at this point but there is depth into the later rounds.

  1. Indianapolis Colts (10-6): AJ Brown WR   Ole Miss

Oh, what a difference Andrew Luck makes.  He made this entire team better somehow and yet they have plenty of areas they could address.   Despite having plenty of cap space the Colts decided against spending a bunch of money, they didn’t trade for Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham and they didn’t sign Le’Veon Bell in free agency.  Marlon Mack was pretty good at RB after he returned last season and they have two pretty good TEs in Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle.  Where they do need help is at WR where TY Hilton carries the load.  They did sign Panthers castoff WR Devin Funchess but I don’t think that will solve the problems.  AJ Brown didn’t blow up the combine like his college teammate DK Metcalf but Brown is the one of the two that was actually productive at Ole Miss.  Brown is the better route runner and he can handle playing outside or in the slot.  He and Hilton would make a nice versatile combo for Luck.

  1. Oakland Raiders (from Dallas): Josh Jacobs RB   Alabama

With three first round picks this team can fill plenty of holes on the roster and while LB is a glaring need there simply isn’t great value here.  Whether or not Marshawn Lynch returns for another year the team needs a RB for the long haul.  Jacobs is the best of an average lot at RB and while I would advocate waiting until the later rounds for most teams this is the Raiders 3rd pick so taking the best RB isn’t a bad idea.  Jacobs has a solid all-around game and he’ll bring some skills they can use right away.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (12-4): Dexter Lawrence DT   Clemson

The team re-signed Brandon Mebane but Corey Luiget and Darius Philon are still both free agents and Mebane is aging.  Lawrence didn’t have a good combine after hurting his leg running the 40 and he ended his college career suspended for failing a drug test.  That’s not a great combo which is why he’s still available this late in the draft.  Lawrence is a behemoth at 6’4 and over 350 lbs. but he moves like a man much smaller.  He can eat up blocks and keep Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram freed up while keeping blockers off of newly signed LB Thomas Davis.  As long as the team is comfortable with his character, he will go in the first round and probably start early for whichever team drafts him.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): Deandre Baker CB   Georgia

The Chiefs offense is set and they even added a bruising RB in Carlos Hyde to complement Damien Williams but their defense was terrible last season. New coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will take them away from the 3-4 look to a 4-3 look which involves some major changes.  They traded OLB Dee Ford and cut OLB Justin Houston, those two don’t fit the new scheme.  Letting S Eric Berry go had to be hard but it was necessary given his age and the fact he has missed so much time the last few years.  The team lost CB Steven Nelson in free agency and while he isn’t a big loss, they do need to replace him.  Baker is a better CB than he is an athlete but he’ll be really good across from Kendall Fuller.  This defense can’t be much worse and Baker would help them be much better.  (One MAJOR caveat, if Tyreek Hill is found to have done something illegal in regards to the allegations of child abuse and the Chiefs cut him this pick becomes either WR Marquise Brown or WR Parris Campbell.  This team needs its deep speed WR)

  1. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans): Deebo Samuel WR   South Carolina

The Packers addressed their major defensive deficiencies in free agency with the two OLBs and with safety Adrian Amos.  This first round is about making Aaron Rodgers happy.  With Randall Cobb gone they need a guy that can line up in the slot.  Marquise Brown from Oklahoma is a possibility but I like Samuel better.  Brown is dealing with a foot injury and I think that could give teams pause in drafting him in the first round.  Samuel would be a great Cobb replacement because like Cobb he would excel in the slot but he can line up out wide and be very good too.  He has better size than Brown and while he isn’t as fast, I think Rodgers will appreciate his route running and ability to separate and get open.  The Packers took 3 WRs in last year’s draft but Samuel is better than all of them.

  1. Los Angeles Rams (13-3): Jaylon Ferguson OLB   Louisiana Tech

The Rams have some holes to fill with DT Ndamukong Suh being a free agent and they need help on the interior of their offensive line with OG Roger Saffold leaving and C John Sullivan not returning.  Unfortunately, they don’t have a lot of draft picks either.  They need pass rushing help too even after re-signing Dante Fowler Jr. whom they traded their 3rd round pick for last year.  Ferguson played at a smaller school but he was a dominant pass rusher at LA Tech.  He should be perfect for Wade Phillips 3-4 defense and he will make the Rams defense better.

  1. New England Patriots (11-5): Deionte Thompson S   Alabama

The Patriots have some aging players on the defense and that includes both starting safeties Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty.  There has already been talk that McCourty is considering retirement and the Patriots are known for moving on from aging players a year too early instead of a year too late.  McCourty quarterbacks the defensive backfield and Thompson would be a nice addition to bring in and have him learn for a year or two.  Thompson may not be the biggest playmaker but he understands how to line up a defense and he played for Nick Saban, that should be good enough for Bill Belichick.  The team could use a TE like Irv Smith Jr, or a WR like N’Keal Harry or an offensive lineman like Greg Little or Chris Lindstrom but I think they go for the value of Thompson, unless of course Belichick trades this pick…yeah, he’s going to trade this pick.  I really hope he decides to package this pick with one of their 2nd round picks to move up to take TJ Hockenson or Noah Fant but that’s just me dreaming.

 

 

 

A Hott Read and some Combine Thoughts

It used to be that guys would go to the combine, complete an incredible workout and then their draft stock would skyrocket.  Well clearly, we have lowered the bar as now all you have to do is show up, get measured at barely over 5’10 and over 200 lbs. and all of the sudden you’re the presumptive #1 pick in the draft, no workout needed.  The Kyler Murray hype train is careening out of control and it looks like the Cardinals will pick him first in the draft and trade away last year’s #10 overall pick Josh Rosen.  They are still denying it but they have to if they want any leverage in trading away Rosen.  I think they are crazy but they kept a GM who fired a coach after one year (with a bad roster constructed by said GM), then they let that GM hire a new head coach who had been fired from his college head coaching job. The Cardinals have a long way to go on their rebuild and given the state of their offensive line it’s not a terrible idea to have a more mobile QB but I fear what happens to mobile QBs happening to Murray.  He’s going to get beat up before they fix everything around him and it will end up hurting his career and the Cardinals franchise. It happened to Robert Griffin, it’s happening to Marcus Mariota currently, it might happen to Deshaun Watson and I can clearly see it as the future for Lamar Jackson.  These players have some early success because they are hard to prepare for but teams eventually figure them out.  Also, their bodies get beaten up due to the physical nature of their playing styles and eventually it catches up to them.  There is a reason why pocket passers like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are able to play into their late 30’s and early 40’s, I don’t think any of these guys will be playing that long.

Back to the Murray/Rosen thing.  Rosen was my favorite QB in last year’s draft and I don’t really understand the fascination with Murray, he’s a novelty act that I just don’t see being a long lasting starting QB in the NFL.  If I were drafting, I’m taking Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock before even considering Murray.  However, the Cardinals need to act fast if they want to get any sort of value for Rosen as the QB market is shaking out quickly and they are losing leverage.  So far, the Broncos have traded for Joe Flacco, the Redskins have traded for Case Keenum and the Jaguars made a quick move for Nick Foles in free agency.  That leaves only the Dolphins really looking for a starting QB this season and all the rumors say they are not planning on getting their future QB this year because they want to wait for next year’s draft when Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jake Fromm will presumably be available.  That really leaves the teams with aging starters to consider trading for Rosen.  The Patriots would make sense and Rosen could pair with Josh McDaniels as his coach in the future.  The Saints will need to eventually replace Drew Brees and Rosen would work well in Sean Payton’s offense.  And the Chargers will have to consider their future after Phillip Rivers.

Other teams that could consider QB changes now are the Raiders (who knows what Gruden is thinking) and the Buccaneers (Bruce Arians may like Jameis Winston but Winston could flame out at any moment).  A dark horse team that should consider Rosen is the Tennessee Titans.  Marcus Mariota can’t seem to stay healthy and they are going to have to make a decision on his future soon as his rookie contract is running out.  Do they really want to pay him a lot of guaranteed money when they can’t guarantee how much he can play?  I’m pretty sure the Giants, the Bucs and the Titans aren’t giving up their first round picks this year for Rosen so the Cardinals would have to settle for a second rounder at best from those teams.  The real question is can they get the Chargers, Saints or Patriots interested enough to give up their first rounders since those all come late in the first round.  I do think their best bet might be the Patriots because Belichick has a penchant for trading for or signing former 1st round picks, he’s never minded trading his first rounder and the Patriots have two second round picks.

Combine Thoughts

  • Kyler Murray didn’t work out and yet somehow, he went from mid first round pick to #1 overall. Well, he better hope the Cardinals take him because if they don’t, he is falling to the middle of the first round at best.  The Giants look like they are set for Haskins, the Jags are not spending a first-round pick on a QB after signing Foles and I don’t think John Elway is going to take a 5’10 QB (if he pulls the trigger on a QB it will be Drew Lock).  Murray has to hope the Dolphins, Redskins or some other mystery team really likes him.  The thing about Murray is he fits Kliff Kingsbury’s offense but he really doesn’t fit anyone else’s offense.
  • The RB position proved to be as pedestrian as everyone thought at the combine. There is a reason why Alabama’s backup RB Josh Jacobs is considered the best of the bunch and he didn’t even work out.  Which RB goes second is quite the mystery as David Montgomery, Damien Harris and a couple of other ones are possibilities.  Jacobs may go in round 1 but I wouldn’t bet money on that just yet.  There are going to be some solid RBs taken in the middle rounds and they will outperform guys taken ahead of them.
  • One RB that actually had a good combine was Penn St.’s Miles Sanders. Being the guy that replaced Saquon Barkley in college set the bar pretty high and Sanders isn’t Barkley but he could end up being the best RB in this class.
  • At WR there are a whole bunch of big, tall, powerful and fast guys that looked good; DK Metcalf, N’Keal Harry, Hakeem Butler and AJ Brown along with a number of guys that were insanely fast; Metcalf again, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella and Terry McLaurin. Metcalf was the star of the show with his ridiculous physique along with his sheer size (over 6’3 and 228 lbs.) and blazing speed (4.33).  Metcalf’s workout will likely give him an edge over the others but the fact that there isn’t a ton of separation between players in this group means it’s hard to predict which teams will like which players.  There also isn’t a no-doubt future star as all of these guys have some question about their game.
  • My favorite WRs in this draft are Deebo Samuel and Andy Isabella. Isabella is a small-school prospect out of UMass with blazing speed and a knack for getting open.  Samuel is a guy that also has a knack for getting open and he can play all over the field.  Out of the bigger WRs I actually like AJ Brown, he was the actual productive WR at Ole Miss.  His teammate DK Metcalf got all the hype at the combine but he tends to get hurt a lot and he’s not the most fluid WR.  Brown is a natural WR with a more refined game than Metcalf and he’s got plenty of athleticism.
  • The TE class is led by the two former Hawkeye teammates TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant. Fant did exactly what was expected at the combine, he dominated the physical testing and he showed that he has good hands despite the fact he occasionally dropped an easy pass at Iowa.  I still think Hockenson goes first because he’s the better all-around player but both guys are going in the first round.
  • The OT group may have had a bit of a change after the combine. Jonah Williams has been at the top of the OT group but he measured in just a little shy of what teams like and then he had a pretty average workout.  Williams isn’t a great athlete and that is evident on his film and the combine just confirmed it.  Jawaan Taylor did measure in well and he had a good workout.  He was a dominant player at times and he may have taken over the top spot at the position.  Andre Dillard looked good and showed his length and athleticism.  He’s the best pass blocker in the group and he solidified himself as a first rounder.  Cody Ford gave teams something to think about as he may be good enough to play RT while he’s also a potential Pro Bowler at OG.  Dalton Risner will be a solid addition to any line and he could play almost every position.  The one player that really didn’t help himself is Greg Little from Ole Miss.  Even though he has the size and length he really didn’t look good in the drills and didn’t show the athleticism teams expected.  He may even fall out of the first round.  C Garrett Bradbury looked fantastic and he’s very likely to be the first interior lineman to come off the board (not counting Ford).  There are a number of teams that need a center and he’s going to be an immediate starter for someone.
  • The organizers of the combine finally made the smart decision to split up the Defensive Ends/Outside Linebackers from the Defensive Tackles. This allowed for a better comparison as the edge rusher position has become a lot more fluid and mixing them with the DTs just doesn’t make sense.  This draft is particularly deep with edge rushers and DT is quite deep too.  It’s possible that the DE/OLB/DT positions could have as many as 16-18 players drafted in the first round, that’s more than half the round.
  • DE Nick Bosa and OLB Josh Allen both performed well and they are still the top two edge players in the draft. The real mover was Montez Sweat from Mississippi St. He really performed well in the athletic testing and in the defensive lineman drills.  Sweat weighed in heavier than most expected and yet he was still faster and more athletic than almost everyone at the position.  Brian Burns was also bigger than expected and also showed great athleticism.  The one player who hurt his stock is Jachai Polite.  Polite showed up out of shape and didn’t perform well before he said he hurt his hamstring in the 40 and didn’t finish the workout.  Teams were not impressed and given the depth at the position he probably falls out of round 1.
  • The DT position looks stacked too. Quinnen Williams entered the draft as the top guy here and only solidified himself as a top 5 pick.  He showed amazing athleticism and even though he only started for one year his tape is fantastic.  The other athletic freak at DT is Michigan’s Rashan Gary.  Gary showed why he was such a highly regarded recruit with his athleticism and his versatility.  However, the big question with him is why wasn’t he more productive?  Gary should have been as dominant of a force as Williams but simply wasn’t.  Part of Gary’s issue is that is a bit of a tweener as he’s not exactly a natural fit at DT or DE.  If the right coach gets ahold of him and finds a way to harness his talents, they could have a great player.  I think he should concentrate on being a DT because quick, athletic DTs are becoming far more useful than DEs that don’t have elite speed.
  • The two DTs that didn’t help themselves were Dexter Lawrence and Dre’Mont Jones. Lawrence pulled up lame on his first 40 and that was it for him.  He’s a big body so no one was expecting him to run fast but for a guy who ended his season suspended for failing a drug test at Clemson the combine was a chance to change the narrative for him, he missed that opportunity.  Jones is an undersized DT but he didn’t really move like one.  His numbers weren’t great and with so many players at the position he hurt his stock.
  • At LB it was the show of the two Devins, Devin White and Devin Bush. Both showed they are gifted athletes with great speed and they look like naturals at the position.  White is the bigger of the two and is likely a top 15 pick.  Bush is slightly undersized but he’s a player.  I wouldn’t be shocked if the Steelers take a long look because he plays a bit like Ryan Shazier before his injury.  Blake Cashman was the only other LB to really stand out and that was because he tested far more athletic than people expected.  He was a pretty productive player on the field and his good 40 time (4.50), vertical (37.5 inches) and other drills will get him noticed.
  • At CB Greedy Williams looks the part with his size and his speed but it’s the defensive back drills that give him problems. He isn’t very technically sound but it’s hard to discount his physical gifts.  Some coach out there is going to believe he can make an elite player out of Williams and I wouldn’t bet against it.  I’m not sure who the 2nd best CB is because both Byron Murphy and Deandre Baker have issues.  Neither one is very big, they ran nearly identical times and while Murphy looked better at the combine, I prefer Baker on the field.  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder here so good luck.
  • Two CBs that may go higher than expected are Rock Ya-Sin out of Temple and Justin Layne from Michigan St. Both have good size and ran solid times and both looked good in drills.  You could convince me Ya-Sin is the second-best CB behind Williams if you really try.
  • At safety things are getting interesting. Alabama’s Deionte Thompson started the process as the top safety but things are looking to change.  Part of the reason is Thompson has a wrist injury that is keeping him from working out and when you go back and watch him, he didn’t make a lot of big plays for Alabama.  He’ll be a good player for someone but teams are looking for safeties to be playmakers.
  • At the combine it was Juan Thornhill stealing the show with some impressive athleticism. Not only did he run 4.42 but his vert was 44 inches and his broad jump was 11’9 and his bench press number of 21 reps is fantastic for a 205 lbs. safety.  Thornhill moves up while others move down.  Taylor Rapp didn’t run the 40 but he was impressive in other drills so that should confirm his film, he’s good.  Amani Hooker ran an unexpected 40 time at 4.48 and showed more athleticism than teams were expecting too.  His natural instincts and his versatility should really help his draft stock.  There are a lot of safeties and the interesting thing is there are so many different types, it will really be all about what teams are looking for in terms of skillsets.

The combine is becoming more of an event instead of a scouting opportunity and now that guys specifically train for it it’s hard to really judge someone from the results.  The most important part is either confirming what you know about a guy (Quinnen Williams is a stud) or opening your eyes to someone so you can go back and really study what they do (EVERYONE should want Amani Hooker on their team, I’m just saying, WATCH THE TAPE).  I’m pretty sure three QBs, and only three QBs, are going in the first round (Murray, Haskins and Lock).  I’m not sure a RB is going (sorry Mr. Jacobs).  Two Hawkeye TEs are going but it could be in either order.  The edge rusher/DT combination is going to be half the first round.  One bold prediction…as many safeties go in round 1 as CBs.  I’m going with Deionte Thompson, Nasir Adderley and Juan Thornhill at safety while only Greedy Williams, either Deandre Baker or Byron Murphy and maybe Rock Ya-Sin.  Don’t worry I’ll be wrong by April.