This is my first mock draft of 2020 and yes I’m making an assumption the 49ers beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.  Never good to assume these things but I had to put the last two teams in some order.  You will see this 1st round is pretty heavily dominated by WRs, it’s an excellent receiver draft.  I’m also assuming Tua Tagovailoa gets a clean bill of health on his hip injury.  I will also fully admit two of my favorite prospects in this draft (besides the Iowa guys) are Georgia OT Andrew Thomas and Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy.  Jeudy is going to be a star. There is no one I completely hate in this draft but I’m not all that sold on the CB class after Jeff Okudah.  There are a lot of mock drafts putting two more QBs in the first round, Jordan Love and Jacob Eason, I’m not on that bandwagon.  I like Eason better than Love but someone is really going to have to be desperate to take either one in the first round.  Truthfully, I’m not really sold on Justin Herbert either but he’s going to have plenty of fans in the first round.

2020 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

1. 1. Cincinnati Bengals (2-14): Joe Burrow     QB         LSU

The Bengals had a terrible first season under new coach Zac Taylor and obviously Andy Dalton isn’t the future for this team.  In the middle of the year the team even benched him to give rookie Ryan Findley a shot at the job but he flamed out too and they went back to Dalton.  Burrow has been absolutely masterful at LSU this season under new passing game coordinator Joe Brady.  His seven touchdown 1^st half against Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff semifinal was insane and I can’t see how any team could watch him play this year and not draft him.  The Bengals need a new face of the franchise and Burrow happens to be an Ohio native, this match is simply too perfect.  Chase Young will certainly be a consideration but don’t overthink it Bengals, take Joe.

2. Washington Redskins (3-13): Chase Young      DE         Ohio St.

If Burrow hadn’t been so unbelievable this season Young would be the runaway choice at #1 but QBs trump pass rushers, even ones as great as Young.  He had a monster season at Ohio St. and even though the last month of the season he wasn’t quite as dominant as he was at the beginning of the year that simply doesn’t matter.  The Redskins got their QB last year (Dwayne Haskins) from Ohio St. and now they go back to the Buckeyes to get their elite defensive player.  New head coach Ron Rivera had some great defensive linemen in Carolina and he knows their value.  New defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will be transitioning the defense back to a 4-3 look and Young is the perfect DE to build that transition around.

3. Detroit Lions (3-12-1): Jeff Okudah          CB          Ohio St.

The Lions are led by Matt Patricia who is supposed to be a defensive minded coach but their defense was atrocious.  Patricia is making a number of changes to his staff on both sides of the ball but what he really needs on defense is talent.  Each level needs help so taking the best available player on defense is the smart move.  Darius Slay has been a mainstay at CB for years and he can be great but he’s been doing it alone his whole career and he’s 29 so he can’t do it forever.  Okudah is the best defender in the draft not named Chase Young.  He’s a lockdown corner with size and incredible instincts.  He won’t fix all that ails the Lions defense but he is a very strong start.  The Lions have to make major strides next season or Patricia won’t survive.

4. New York Giants (4-12): Andrew Thomas       OT         Georgia

For some reason the Giants fired their head coach but kept GM Dave Gettleman.  The team is deficient in some key areas of the team like offensive line and the entire defense.  While they were equally terrible on offense and defense this season and they should just go with the best player available, Gettleman is likely to address the offensive or defensive line.  It just so happens that Thomas is one of the best players available at any position and while they have Nate Solder at LT, he is 31 and far less reliable than he used to be.  Thomas could slide in at RT as a rookie but he will eventually be the starter at LT.  QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley deserve more talent in front of them and while this team also needs to address the WR position on offense it won’t matter who lines up there if they can’t block up front.  Thomas is a monster and he’s one of my favorite players in this draft.

5. Miami Dolphins (5-11): Tua Tagovailoa           QB         Alabama

Well this pick is completely dependent on the medical evaluation of Tua’s hip injury by the Miami medical staff.  There is no doubt that the Dolphins need a QB of the future and there is no doubt a healthy Tua is worthy of a top 5 pick.  At the moment it seems things are trending towards Tua getting a clean bill of health and that means Miami has their QB.  He’s an accurate passer with a solid arm and good athleticism.  That athleticism might be affected by his hip injury but we will see on that.  The team is likely to bring Ryan Fitzpatrick back to serve as a mentor and he can start the season if Tua isn’t fully healthy.  The team embraced the all-out rebuild last season so there is no reason to hurry Tua’s rehab.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11): Jedrick Wills Jr.         OT         Alabama

The Chargers could look for Phillip Rivers replacement with a pick like Justin Herbert but despite the team’s bad record last season they are actually ready to win now if they get healthy.  I think they bring Rivers back for one more year and if they do, they need to protect him better.  Wills is a late rising prospect and while I like Tristan Wirfs better, I think Wills may end up going higher.  He would be an immediate starter at RT and really improve the protection up front.  He would also help the run game.  He wasn’t the Alabama OT everyone had pegged at the beginning of the season as a possible first round pick but Alex Leatherwood decided to stay in school and it was Wills that had a breakout season.

7. Carolina Panthers (5-11): Isaiah Simmons      LB          Clemson

The Panthers are going through a coaching change and part of that change is moving back to a 4-3 defense under new coordinator Phil Snow.  The Panthers will need some personnel changes to make that happen and that became much more difficult with the retirement of future Hall of Famer Luke Kuechly.  With him gone and some of their OLBs likely transitioning to DE the team really only has one true LB and that’s Shaq Thompson.  That’s a good start but they need playmakers and there isn’t a better one than Simmons in this draft.  Simmons is fast, athletic and versatile and Phil Snow can dream up ways to use his vast skills.  Simmons and Thompson would form a nice pair of athletic LBs who could do many things.

8. Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1): Derrick Brown      DT         Auburn

There are going to be a lot of mock drafts that have the Cardinals taking a WR to pair with Kyler Murray but this is an exceptionally deep WR draft and this team needs help on defense, everywhere on defense.  Brown could play any of the three positions on their defensive line and he would be an upgrade.  He would give them someone up front to take a little pressure off of Chandler Jones and Brown can stop the run and push the pocket.  He also has the benefit of arguably being the best available player left on the board.  Brown is a legitimate top five prospect and here he goes 8^th overall.  I could make a pretty strong case for them taking Tristan Wirfs because they need better blocking for Kyler Murray but I feel Brown is too good to pass up.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): Javon Kinlaw        DL          South Carolina

The Jaguars are a team in flux as they have to make a decision at QB between going with last year’s expensive free agent Nick Foles or sparkplug rookie Gardner Minshew at QB.  The offense has plenty of pieces to work with once they pick a QB but the defense needs some attention.  They need LB help and if Simmons falls here, he’s a no-brainer.  They should probably address the CB position after trading Jalen Ramsey last year so Kristian Fulton, Trevon Diggs or Bryce Hall could be in play here.  I think the better value is at defensive line.  Javon Kinlaw doesn’t get the ink Chase Young or Derrick Brown get but he’s a phenomenal player.  He’s a pocket crushing interior lineman and the Jags aren’t exactly stacked on the inside.  Taven Bryant hasn’t broken through yet and the rest of the group is pedestrian at best.  Also, DE Calais Campbell is aging and Kinlaw could slide outside in certain situations and replace Campbell if needed.

10. Cleveland Browns (6-10): Tristan Wirfs         OT         Iowa

The Browns are once again starting over with a new coach and while Kevin Stefanski might be the guy to restart Baker Mayfield’s progress it will be a whole lot easier if the team fixes the offensive line.  Greg Robinson simply isn’t a starting LT for a good NFL team and while Wirfs mostly played RT at Iowa I think he can flip over to LT full-time.  He’s a better option than Robinson and if he can’t be a LT in the NFL, he’s a better RT than Chris Hubbard.  Either way he improves the offensive line.  Wirfs is big and powerful and he’s still a young guy who will only get better as he grows.  The Browns are a team that has way too much talent to end up with six wins so with a better offensive line and better coaching they could make a significant jump next season.

11. New York Jets (7-9): CeeDee Lamb                WR        Oklahoma

The Jets are almost as desperate for offensive line help as the Browns and if this draft falls the way I have it they will be kicking themselves because they miss out on Thomas, Wills and Wirfs.  The Jets could be a prime candidate to trade up a few spots to get one of those OTs.  If they are gone the team needs WR help just as badly.  I like Jerry Jeudy the best of all the WRs but some teams will have CeeDee Lamb ranked above him.  Jeudy is a tactician while Lamb is a deep speed playmaker.  Robbie Anderson is a free agent and Lamb would be the perfect replacement and a likely upgrade in terms of consistency, something Sam Darnold would appreciate.  Lamb is long, lean and tracks the deep ball especially well.  If the Jets can’t get Darnold some protection they can certainly give him better playmakers to work with.

12. Las Vegas Raiders (7-9): Justin Herbert         QB         Oregon

The Raiders need help on defense, especially at LB and CB.  However, the team will be moving to Las Vegas and there is talk Jon Gruden isn’t enamored with QB Derek Carr.  What better way to open in a new city than with a new franchise QB?  Herbert was a major prospect coming into the year with the possibility of being the #1 overall pick, he didn’t progress that far and there are questions about his game.  He’s still a bit underdeveloped but that won’t stop Gruden.  It should be pointed out that Carr may have been better if his best receiving weapon wasn’t his TE Darren Waller.  It would be fitting to have Herbert be the starting QB on the first NFL team in Vegas, he’s the ultimate big bet, he may be a huge jackpot or you go broke.

13. Indianapolis Colts (7-9): AJ Epenesa       DE         Iowa

If either Tua or Herbert were to fall here the Colts could certainly grab a QB to replace Jacoby Brissett.  That’s not happening in this mock draft.  I also couldn’t fault the team for grabbing a WR here and I love Jerry Jeudy, however, there is a really good defender left on the board.  AJ Epenesa is good enough to be a top 10 pick and represents great value at 13^th overall.  The Colts were not great at getting to the QB last season and both Jabaal Sheard and Justin Houston are on the wrong side of 30.  Epenesa is a powerful DE with good speed and burst and would give the Colts a piece to build their defensive front around for the future.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Grant Delpit       S            LSU

Todd Bowles should get an award for what he was able to do as the defensive coordinator of the Bucs.  They surprisingly had one of the better defenses in the league even though they were lacking talent in key positions.  One area that really needed some help was at safety.  The position isn’t usually valued in the draft like others but Todd Bowles is an excellent secondary coach and he will see the value in Grant Delpit.  Delpit is a smart, ball-hawking safety who would look great playing in Tampa’s defensive secondary.  He would help cover up mistakes of other players and  while he got off to slow start last season at LSU because of an injury, he came on late in the year when he got healthy and the secondary was fantastic down the stretch.

15. Denver Broncos (7-9): Jerry Jeudy       WR        Alabama

The Broncos have bigger needs than WR but Jeudy is too good to pass up.  He should be a top 10 pick but some teams are going to value CeeDee Lamb more than him and so he may fall.  Jeudy isn’t the biggest or fastest WR in this draft but he’s the best route runner and he will immediately be one of the best route runners in the NFL.  The Broncos may have found their QB in Drew Lock and getting him another weapon would help him out tremendously.  They have RBs Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay, TE Noah Fant and WR Courtland Sutton.  Jeudy would be an excellent complement to Sutton and he would make Lock’s life easier.  The offense would be pretty set at the skill positions and they can all grow together.

16. Atlanta Falcons (7-9): K’Lavon Chaisson       DE         LSU

The Falcons have needed another edge rusher for quite some time and now they could lose the best one they do have in Vic Beasley.  Chaisson is young and needs some time to grow but he’s a long, lean and fast and the Falcons prioritize speed on defense.  It’s possible they will go with Yetur Gross-Matos but I think Chaisson profiles more to their liking.  He isn’t the most refined pass rusher but he has skills to work with and he can get to the QB.

17. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Xavier McKinney        DB         Alabama

The Cowboys offense is good and even new head coach Mike McCarthy isn’t going to mess with it, he is bringing back Kellen Moore as the coordinator.  The defense is a different story.  They need help for Demarcus Lawrence on the defensive line and they need safety help too.  CB Byron Jones is also a free agent but the team is hoping to bring him back.  McKinney is a bit of a hedge against the possibility of losing Jones because McKinney can play both safety and corner.  If Jones departs, they could use McKinney at CB but if they re-sign Jones, McKinney steps in at his better position, safety.  He will immediately upgrade their secondary in the middle.

18. Miami (from Pittsburgh): Austin Jackson      OT         USC

If the Dolphins invest the #5 overall pick in Tua they have to spend some draft capital on their offensive line.  LT is a good place to start and while Jackson isn’t the level of Thomas, Wirfs or Wills he is a legitimate starting option at LT.  He has the size, length and athleticism you look for in an OT and he’s a major upgrade over everyone on the Dolphins offensive line.  That’s no setting the bar very high but I like Jackson’s potential to be a long-term solution at LT.

19. Las Vegas (from Chicago): Kristian Fulton     CB          LSU

The Raiders ended last season with Daryl Worley and Trayvon Mullen as their top two CBs, that’s not an ideal set up.  Fulton isn’t the biggest or the fastest CB you’ll find in this draft but he’s talented and tough and he can matchup with just about any WR.  He will be the top CB for the Raiders on day one and that’s all the reason they need to draft him.

20. Jacksonville (from LA Rams): Trevon Diggs         CB          Alabama

The Jaguars are going to count on a new offensive coordinator to figure out how to better utilize the talent they have on that side of the ball.  On defense they need some more new blood.  Jalen Ramsey was traded last year and AJ Bouye wasn’t great so they need help at CB.  Diggs isn’t a household name but he’s a big CB at 6’2 and he learned at Alabama, that’s a pretty solid resume.

21. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): Tee Higgins       WR        Clemson

As badly as the Eagles need help in the secondary, and they really need help in the secondary, the value is at WR.  They also need help at WR and it’s almost as bad as it is at CB and luckily for them Tee Higgins is still available.  Higgins is a big, physical WR at 6’4 215 lbs. and he will become Carson Wentz’s favorite target on the outside very quickly.  Higgins is also fast and has a large catch radius and will make Wentz’s life easier.  He’s a higher rated prospect than the CBs left on the board at this point (Bryce Hall, CJ Henderson) and Higgins is a steal at this point.

22. Buffalo Bills (10-6): Yetur Gross-Matos         DE         Penn St.

The Bills had a very good season with 10 wins and their defense was a large part of that.  The offense is young and still coming together but they have players to around like Josh Allen and Devin Singletary.  They could use some help at WR because John Brown and Cole Beasley aren’t exactly young by NFL standards.  That need can wait given the depth at the position.  What they really need to address is their pass rush.  On the edge, they have Jerry Hughes who is aging and Trent Murphy who isn’t all that great.  Gross-Matos would bring a guy who can bend the edge and he’s a better player than Shaq Lawson, a guy the Bills may let walk in free agency.

23. New England Patriots (12-4): Henry Ruggs III         WR        Alabama

While there are some good TEs in this draft; Cole Kmet, Brycen Hopkins and Hunter Bryant, none of them rate as highly as Henry Ruggs III overall.  No matter who lines up at QB for the Patriots next season (I’m still betting on Brady), they need more help in the passing game.  Julian Edelman or bust is not a passing game philosophy that’s sustainable.  Ruggs is a deep speed threat who can take the top off the defense.  His presence would open up the middle of the field for Edelman and complement N’Keal Harry’s mid-range power game quite well.  Ruggs can play both inside and outside receiver and working around Julian Edelman would be quite helpful in refining his route running.

24. New Orleans Saints (13-3): Laviska Shenault Jr.         WR        Colorado

Shenault has been described as a swiss-army knife type of receiver because he can play every receiving position and can even line up in line like a TE.  He’s a big guy at 6’2 220 lbs. and runs like a RB once he catches the ball.  He’s lined up in the backfield and even taken snaps as a wildcat QB at times.  Does anyone fit the description of a Sean Payton player better than that?  Shenault would take a lot of pressure off of Michael Thomas just by being a legitimate WR threat on the opposite side but Payton would take great pleasure in drawing up plays for a guy who can do pretty much anything on offense.

25. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Bryce Hall             CB          Virginia

Hall isn’t a name a lot of people are talking about because he was injured back in October and didn’t play the rest of the year.  If he had been healthy, we may be talking about the second-best CB in this draft behind Okudah.  Hall isn’t the most athletically gifted player with his speed or agility but he’s a top-notch cover guy who won’t back down from anyone.  The Vikings got a less than stellar season from Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander are free agents this off season.  CB could be a major need for the team if Rhodes doesn’t bounce back and even if he does, they may have to replace Waynes, Alexander or both.

26. Miami (from Houston): Jonathan Taylor       RB          Wisconsin

The Dolphins need so many things it’s a good thing they have three first round picks.  My picks for them have a theme, offense.  The get a QB with Tua, a left tackle with Austin Jackson and now a RB.  Most teams avoid RBs in round one anymore but this is the Dolphins third pick so that shouldn’t apply.  The team doesn’t have a legitimate starting RB on the roster and Taylor is a star.  He will need more help, they have to draft multiple offensive linemen in this draft, but he’s an immediate starter and he becomes Tua’s favorite teammate.  Any time you have a back who can carry the ball 25 times a game for your rookie QB that’s a good thing.  Taylor only gets stronger as the game goes and he really started to expand his game this last year by becoming a better pass catcher.  He’s everything you want in a RB and Brian Flores supposedly wants to simplify the Dolphins offense, nothing simpler than hand it to Taylor and get out of the way.

27. Seattle Seahawks (11-5): Mekhi Becton        OT         Louisville

The Seahawks patched together their offensive line throughout the year as they dealt with a number of injuries.  They survived it to the tune of an 11-5 record but they should address their depth.  LT Duane Brown will be 35 next season and they weren’t great at RT no matter who lined up there.  Becton is a huge human being at 6’7 369 lbs. and despite his size he’s a very athletic player.  He can still be a bit raw at times but he has future stalwart LT written all over him.  Russell Wilson would feel a whole lot better with Becton in front of him and his future blindside would be well protected.

28. Baltimore Ravens (14-2): Kenneth Murray         LB          Oklahoma

Clearly, a team that goes 14-2 on the year has a pretty good team and not a lot of issues to deal with.  There is the possibility they lose pass rusher Matt Judon in free agency and that would be a major hole to fill.  They could look to get some slot receiver help with Willie Snead not having a great connection with Lamar Jackson this season.  I think they go best player available and Murray is a stud at LB and in their defense he could step in for well-traveled veteran Josh Bynes.  Patrick Onwuasor has played well at the other ILB spot and Bynes is a steady presence but hardly a playmaker.  Murray would add something special to the middle of the Ravens defense.

29. Tennessee Titans (9-7): CJ Henderson           CB          Florida

The Titans had a magical run at the end of the year and into the playoffs and they most certainly need to retain free agents QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry and RT Jack Conklin and that might mean they don’t have the ability to retain CB Logan Ryan.  They were so thin at CB they picked up Tremaine Brock off the street late in the year so with or without Ryan they need CB help.  Henderson is a long, wiry corner who is willing to play physical and isn’t afraid to tackle.  At 6’1 202 lbs. he still has some filling out to do so he could become an even better run defender on the edge.  He can be used as a blitzer and he doesn’t back down from anyone.

30. Green Bay Packers (13-3): Jalen Reagor        WR        TCU

The Packers relied heavily on their running game and their defense to get them to the NFC Championship game but that wasn’t enough to get them to the Super Bowl.  Aaron Rodgers is still an elite talent at QB but he other than Davante Adams he has no weapons that scare anyone.  One of the things he misses most is a slot receiver over the middle.  Reagor would be an excellent addition because he can be an elite slot guy while also being good enough to flip outside when needed.  They have to get Rodgers some weapons and while they also need a TE I think Reagor is a better player than any of the TEs available in the draft.  They could also look at Justin Jefferson as he would also be a great option in the slot.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): D’Andre Swift       RB          Georgia

The Chiefs need a CB and if they lose Kendall Fuller in free agency the situation might become dire.  The problem is that at this point the quality drops off a bit, I still like AJ Terrell from Clemson but he’s not good enough to pass up Swift.  Swift would be an unbelievable addition to an already incredible offense.  LeSean McCoy is not the solution and Swift is like an upgraded version of Damien Williams.  Adding him to the Chiefs offense is almost unfair.  The team could grab Terrell or another CB or even go after an interior offensive lineman or an edge rusher to pair with Frank Clark.  However, Andy Reid is a “take the best available player” type of guy and when your team just made the Super Bowl that’s a pretty solid plan.

32. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Justin Jefferson        WR           LSU

The 49ers passing game is clearly not the strength of the team.  The got better when they traded for Emmanuel Sanders but he’s 32 and going to be a free agent this off season.  Whether he returns or not this team needs playmakers besides TE George Kittle.  Jefferson isn’t the elite athlete most of the WRs ahead of him in this draft are but he wins with technique and instinct.  He can play on the outside and even at 6’3 he can be very effective from the slot.  If the 49ers bring back Sanders it would give them three WRs (Sanders, Deebo Samuel and Jefferson) who are all very versatile.  They could really use some help at safety but unless McKinney or Delpit fall there isn’t another 1^st round level safety.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MVP

Most Likely Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Russell Wilson, RB Alvin Kamara

Sleepers: QB Carson Wentz, WR Michael Thomas

If you’re going to compete for MVP you have to put up great numbers, be on a winning team and usually being a QB helps.  Mahomes won it last year and if he throws for 50 TDs again, he’ll win it again but I think he falls off just slightly and opens the door for someone else.  Brady is always a possibility and with adding Antonio Brown to his weapons this could be a big year statistically for Brady and we know he’ll win.  Elliott is the focal point of the Dallas offense and that means he matters in this race.  Russell Wilson is the Seahawks offense; I don’t know if they will win enough for him to be considered but its possible.  Kamara is going to be used a lot in New Orleans so his stats may be worthy but he might only be the 3^rd most likely MVP candidate on his own team.  The last time Wentz was healthy for nearly a whole season he almost won the award, if he stays healthy, he’s a could do it.  Thomas is my deep sleeper.  WRs almost never win the award but he could have a phenomenal year and pull it off.

My Pick: Drew Brees

I think Brees has a big year.  I think the Saints have a big year.  I think Mahomes suffers from unrealistic expectations and that hurts his candidacy when he comes up just short of 50 TDs.  This could very well be the Lifetime Achievement MVP Award because Brees has never won it but he’s finished second so many times it feels like he has.  He’s a Hall of Famer, lets give him the MVP Award.

Defensive Player of the Year

Most Likely Contenders: DL Aaron Donald, DE Myles Garrett, DE JJ Watt, DE Khalil Mack, CB Stephon Gilmore, LB Luke Kuechly, LB Darius Leonard

Sleeper: DT Chris Jones

Myles Garrett is just coming into his own and this year he has Olivier Vernon opposite him so teams can’t focus solely on stopping him.  That should help and he could go for somewhere between 15-18 sacks.  Watt is almost always good for 15 sacks and he’s just a stalwart in this category.  Mack makes the Bears defense elite.  His all-around play along with his ability to pressure the QB makes him a candidate for this award.  Gilmore is one of the best CBs in the NFL.  Usually for a defensive back to compete for this award you have to have a lot of interceptions but when you’re the guy teams avoid throwing at that doesn’t have to be the case.  LBs Kuechly and Leonard face long odds because tackles just aren’t as valuable as sacks or interceptions when it comes to this award but Leonard led the league in tackles by a lot last season and Kuechly is a tackling machine.  Jones had a great year last season on a terrible Chiefs defense, now with Frank Clark playing on the same line Jones might have an even better year.

My Pick: Aaron Donald

Like I’m picking against the most dominant defensive player in the league.  Donald has been a force of nature the last few years and has won back-to-back DPOY awards.  I don’t see him slowing down and I don’t see anyone slowing him down so it’s his award until further notice.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Most Likely Contenders:  QB Kyler Murray, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Marquise Brown, RB David Montgomery, TE TJ Hockenson, TE Noah Fant, RB Miles Sanders

Sleepers: WR Terry McLaurin, WR Deebo Samuel

This award might be the hardest to handicap.  Murray was the #1 overall pick in the draft so he’s on the list but his growing pains are going to be substantial and his team isn’t going to be very good.  Marquise Brown has the advantage that the Ravens don’t have much else at WR so he’s going to be Lamar Jackson’s go-to guy, my only concern is he might get hurt.  Montgomery is a talented player but the Bears have three RBs so his usage might not be enough to get him noticed.  Hockenson and Fant both suffer from the fact that TEs just don’t get enough love to win this award.  They might be the two best rookies by the end of the year and still not win it.  Sanders still has to win the starting job from Jordan Howard, I think he will but the longer it takes the harder it will be for him to show what he can do.  McLaurin’s stock shot up when the Redskins cut Josh Doctson.  They need a #1 WR and McLaurin can be that guy, the question is will the Redskins’ offense with Case Keenum be any good?  I like Deebo Samuel and he very well could be the top WR with the 49ers, but what will their offense look like?

My Pick: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is RB in an offense that is going to have to rely heavily on him both in the run game and the passing game.  He’s a multi-dimensional talent so he should put up good numbers.  I’m not sure there is going to be a large number of rookies that really stuff the stat sheet so Jacobs should stand out in the crowd.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Most Likely Contenders:  LB Devin White, DT Ed Oliver, DT Quinnen Williams, LB Devin Bush, DE Nick Bosa, DE Josh Allen

Sleeper: CB Deandre Baker

Both LBs, Devin White and Devin Bush, are going to rack up an obscene amount of tackles this season.  White steps into a Bucs defense that needs a lot of help in the middle and Bush becomes the new Ryan Shazier in Pittsburgh.  Either of them could follow Darius Leonard’s lead from last year by leading the league in tackles and winning this award as a rookie.  Quinnen Williams is playing for Gregg Williams’ defense for the Jets and that could mean good things for him.  Nick Bosa and Josh Allen are edge rushers and if either of them gets to 15 sacks or more they would become the favorite for this award.  Deandre Baker should get some opportunities for interceptions as he’s the #2 CB opposite Janoris Jenkins for the Giants for now.  He’s a talented player and he will make plays for them.

My Pick: Ed Oliver

Oliver plays on one of the better defenses in the NFL with the Bills.  He’s a starter at DT and while that’s not usually a sexy position that puts up big stats Oliver can.  He should collapse the pocket and get quite a few sacks.  Depending on the number of tackles White and Bush put up, or the number of sacks Bosa or Allen put up Oliver might stand out more than they do.

NFC Playoff Teams (* wild card teams)

Philadelphia

Chicago

New Orleans

L.A. Rams

* Green Bay

* Minnesota

AFC Playoff Teams (* wild card teams)

New England

Pittsburgh

Houston

Kansas City

* L.A Chargers

* Cleveland

(I had to make a last-minute change. When I was writing this during week 1 games, they announced Nick Foles broke his collarbone during the Jaguars game.  Given that’s about a 6-week injury and their backup is Gardner Minshew I can’t leave them as the winners of the AFC South and I think Houston wins the division and Cleveland wins the second wild card spot)

AFC Championship Game

New England over Kansas City

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Super Bowl

New England over New Orleans (Antonio Brown is Super Bowl MVP, just kidding, it’s Edelman of course)

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston and Indianapolis have experienced major changes in the last two weeks that has completely changed the outlook of this division.  I was feeling pretty good about Indianapolis and while I think Jacoby Brissett will be fine, I like Jacksonville more overall.  This team is stacked with talent and now that they have Nick Foles at QB instead of Blake Bortles they have a chance to really live up to their potential.  Foles just has to run the offense and not screw it up.  They really need Leonard Fournette to be an effective offensive player to really take this team to another level.  At WR Marqise Lee returns from injury but it’s really Dede Westbrook who looks like a breakout star.  The offensive line has potential to be really good if Cam Robinson stays healthy at LT and if either Cedric Ogbuehi or Jawaan Taylor can lock down the RT position.  New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo has worked with Foles before so the transition shouldn’t be too hard.  Foles and Fournette are the keys to this offense.

The defense was excellent two years ago and while it wasn’t quite as good last year it was still pretty good.  I think they have a chance to be elite once again.  The defensive line has Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell at DE and the team somehow lucked into Josh Allen with the #7 pick in the draft.  Allen will be a pass rushing specialist and these three will wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  DT Marcel Dareus and Abry Jones are solid in the middle.  At LB Myles Jack is excellent in the middle and while rookie Quincy Williams and Leon Jacobs aren’t household names, they should be fine.  CB Jalen Ramsey can be one of the best in the NFL and his running mate AJ Bouye is one of the best #2 CBs in the NFL.  SS Ronnie Harrison stepped up last year and he should be good again.

Head coach Doug Marrone is not really a guy people get excited about but he’s a steady presence and has brought stability to the sidelines.  Defensive coordinator Todd Wash is one of the more underappreciated coordinators in the league.  He has done a fantastic job and he knows how to best use his personnel, I’m excited to see what he can do with Josh Allen.  The offense is where the problems have been and while John DeFilippo didn’t have a good run last year in Minnesota, he got fired in the middle of the year, he’s actually a pretty good offensive mind.  I think his vision and Marrone’s vision for the offense are more compatible than DeFilippo’s was with Mike Zimmer with the Vikings.  DeFilippo’s past with Nick Foles should also come in handy.  I think Jacksonville takes advantage of the uncertainty in Houston and Indianapolis and pulls out the division title.

Houston Texans

Many people are not on board with the trades the Texans made at the end of the preseason and while they definitely paid handsomely for their acquisitions of Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills and didn’t get a lot for Jadeveon Clowney I’m okay with what it does for them right now.  The Texans offense is built around Deshaun Watson and he barely made it out of last season alive.  The offensive line has been horrible and they haven’t been good at drafting OTs since the days of Duane Brown.  Tunsil is one of the better LTs in football and he’s still only 25 years old.  He can grow with Watson and secure his blindside for the foreseeable future.  They also add WR Kenny Stills to play opposite DeAndre Hopkins and to me that’s a good addition.  Will Fuller and Keke Coutee haven’t stayed healthy and Stills is a veteran presence that adds consistency to take some pressure off of Hopkins.  They lost RB Lamar Miller and they are looking at using a combination of Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, two guys they traded for during the preseason.  They are essentially devoid of anyone of significance at TE.  The offensive line got a huge upgrade with Tunsil but it does beg the question of what they were thinking drafting Tytus Howard in the first-round.  Howard was a poor choice at that point and that seems clear already.  The line will be better with a healthy Nick Martin at center and Seantrel Henderson at RT.  Watson will carry the offense once again, hopefully he won’t be running for his life.

The defense takes a hit with the trade of OLB Jadeveon Clowney but I’m actually okay with the choice the Texans are making.  I think they could have gotten more out of the Clowney trade, Barkevious Mingo is not a worthwhile piece, but I wouldn’t have paid Clowney what he wants either.  Clowney wants to be paid like he’s Khalil Mack or Von Miller and he simply doesn’t affect the game the way those two do.  He’s a good all-around OLB but he isn’t an elite pass rusher.  I would rather spend the money on Tunsil.  This does mean that the team is counting that much more on an aging JJ Watt and a not-as-young-as-he-used-to-be Whitney Mercilus.  On the d-line, DT DJ Reader holds his own and they can hope rookie Charles Omenihu outplays his draft position.  At ILB they are pretty good with Zach Cunningham and Bernardrick McKinney.  Mercilus needs some help at OLB and I would be shocked if it came in the form of Barkevious Mingo.  At CB Jonathan Joseph makes Watt look like a spring chicken but he is still effective.  Newly signed Bradley Roby adds youth but he’s inconsistent.  S Justin Reid played well as a rookie last year and Tayshaun Gipson should be a decent veteran presence.

The Texans fired their GM after the draft and they haven’t replaced him and they don’t plan to do so.  For now, it’s GM-by-committee and it seems like Bill O’Brien is leading that committee.  It is probably why the team looks like they got fleeced in their two trades.  Everything is on O’Brien now and he knows he is betting big on Deshaun Watson.  The Texans are a likely playoff team but they have a few too many holes on defense, an unproven offensive line, and a RB committee that basically got to the team yesterday.  That’s a lot to put on the shoulders of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins.  The Texans should be good but they are probably not going to be great.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck retired.  The Colts season was defined before it ever got started when Andrew Luck had had enough of his injuries and his rehab and walked away from the game at 29.  I like Jacoby Brissett and the team around him now is far better than the one he led two years ago when Luck sat out with a shoulder injury.  However, Luck was a special talent who had the ability to raise the play of the guys around him and make decent players good and good players great.  The team was built around Luck’s greatness and now that’s gone.  The team won’t fall off a cliff like they did when Peyton Manning was lost for a season because Jacoby Brissett isn’t Curtis Painter but he isn’t Andrew Luck either.  The team will have to rely more heavily on RB Marlon Mack.  Mack had a good year once returned from injury at the start of last year.  TY Hilton has always had a fantastic connection with Luck and now he has to establish a new one with Brissett.  Hilton is a #1 WR and they need him to play like it. The team signed Devin Funchess to bring a bigger physical presence to the WR spot and drafted Parris Campbell to add another speed element.  The TE spot is well manned by Jack Doyle and TD machine Eric Ebron. Ebron will drop off some for sure but he’s still a threat.  The offensive line made huge strides last season. LT Anthony Costanzo, LG Quenton Nelson and C Ryan Kelly are very good.  RT Braden Smith played pretty well as a rookie and the unit should be stable.

This defense was greater than the sum of its parts.  That is a testament to defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and dynamic LB Darius Leonard.  Leonard was an All-Pro as a rookie and that’s not easy to do.  The team will rely on steady veteran Jabaal Sheard and new addition Justin Houston to rush the passer at DE.  Houston was an OLB in Kansas City but the defense in Indy is a little different.  Danico Autry and Margus Hunt man the middle at DT.  Leonard plays the weakside while Anthony Walker mans the middle and Matt Adams plays the strongside at LB.  Walker is an underrated MLB but it’s understandable when Leonard takes all the attention.  Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore were far better than expected at CB while Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers held down the safety spots.  Not a lot of household names on this defense but like I said they are greater than the sum of their parts.  This is really a solid unit with only one true standout player.  As long as Eberflus can get the same cohesiveness out of this group as he did last year, they should be fine.

Frank Reich wasn’t the first choice to be the head coach of the Colts last season but he was the right choice.  Now Reich gets to work his magic with a backup QB again, he did it with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, this time will be just as difficult.  There is a lot of pressure on Brissett to not collapse under the weight of the loss of Luck but he’s stepped in before.  The team is better than they were two years ago when Luck missed the season and this is a completely new coaching staff so while I don’t think they are a playoff team; I don’t think they completely collapse either.

Tennessee Titans

The entire Titans franchise rests on the shoulders of Marcus Mariota.  That’s a lot to put on the guy but they didn’t make him the #2 overall pick to be a middling NFL player.  Just like Jameis Winston in Tampa Bay it’s sink or swim time for Mariota.  He’s in his fifth year and the team has to decide if he’s worth further investment or if they need to look for a new QB.  I’ve never been a big Mariota fan, he’s a better athlete than he is a QB, this year he has no excuse for failure because he has talent around him.  At RB the team has work horse Derrick Henry and third-down back Dion Lewis.  At WR there is potential #1 target Corey Davis, a strong second receiver in Tajee Sharpe and new slot receiver Adam Humphries.  Delanie Walker returns at TE and Jonnu Smith can’t be terrible forever.  The offensive line is missing LT Taylor Lewan for the first month of the season due to suspension but if they can’t overcome that it’s because Mariota just isn’t quite good enough to do so.  The rest of the line is fine.

Mike Vrabel brought in long-time defensive coach Dean Pees to be the defensive coordinator last year and it made a difference.  This year they are making some personnel changes to bring the defense up a notch.  The team returns Da’Quan Jones and Jurrell Casey on the line and they signed Brent Urban from Baltimore, a guy Pees knows well.  At LB they have Rashaan Evans, Jayon Brown and Wesley Woodyard to rotate on the inside, it’s the OLB that will change.  Gone are veterans Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan and in their place are even more veteran Cameron Wake and youngster Harold Landry.  The team is hoping to get one more year out of Wake whom they signed from Miami and they hope Landry can be a full-time player this year.  Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson return at CB.  Ryan and Butler can be fine but can also struggle, Jackson is a pretty good nickel.  Kevin Byard has become one of the better free safeties in football while Kenny Vaccaro is steady at strong safety.  The guy to watch out for is rookie Amani Hooker.  He’s a multi-talented safety who can play some nickel and isn’t afraid to mix it up as a tackler.

The Titans have good, solid talent all around but they don’t have a lot of dynamic playmakers.  They need Mariota to be that guy but he just isn’t consistent enough.  Perhaps, if he were a more consistent thrower Corey Davis would live up to his immense talent at WR.  RB Derrick Henry is an unremarkable work horse and Dion Lewis isn’t quite as dynamic as he was in his Patriot days, then again who ever is?  On defense they need Jurrell Casey to stand out and they need one of the OLB to step up.  I think they are going to find Hooker can be a playmaker in the backend but that might not be enough.  I think the Titans finish last in the division and I think they go shopping for a new QB next season, either in the draft or in a trade.

 

 

New Orleans Saints

Obviously, the Saints are built around Drew Brees and as he ages, they are trying that much harder to win now before he’s done.  They signed his favorite receiver Michael Thomas to a much-deserved contract extension and he should continue to dominate the target share for the offense.  Thomas is one of the top WR in the league and now he’s paid like one.  RB Alvin Kamara is the other star on offense and his role should grow after the departure of Mark Ingram.  Kamara is a multi-dimensional weapon as both a runner and receiver.  He’s actually Brees’ second best receiver behind Thomas.  The team counts on veteran Ted Ginn to give them a little something opposite Thomas and they are clearly still hoping Tre’Quan Smith will develop.  The team did sign Jared Cook to take over at TE and he’s the best pass catcher they have had at the position since they traded away Jimmy Graham.  The offensive line has been solid for years but this off season C Max Unger retired and the team is looking to rookie Eric McCoy to fill the void.  That’s a tall ask for a rookie but he has very good veterans surrounding him.  OTs Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are really good and OGs Andrus Peat and Larry Warford are solid.

The defense has played better over the last several years as the personnel has improved and Dennis Allen has taken over.  They still need a few guys to step up to really make a leap towards the top of the league on that side of the ball.  DE Cameron Jordan has been one of the best in the in the NFL for a number of years but he’s mostly been doing it on his own in New Orleans.  Last year the team traded up to get Marcus Davenport to play the other DE spot.  He had his moments as a rookie but they need him to be a consistent force.  DT Sheldon Rankins was finally healthy and he should pair with free agent Malcolm Brown to form a solid duo inside.  The team isn’t stocked with outstanding playmakers at LB. They are really just a decent set of guys but nothing special.  The team just traded for Kiko Alonso from the Dolphins, he’s a solid veteran.  In the secondary there is some special talent.  CB Marshon Lattimore wasn’t as good last year as he was as a rookie but he can bounce back and be a #1 CB.  Eli Apple joined the team at the trade deadline last season and he’s a solid #2.  The safety duo of Marcus Williams and Vonn Bell is pretty good and there is some depth in the secondary.  CBs PJ Williams and Patrick Robinson can be good if they are healthy and rookie S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson has some nice skills to build on.

Sean Payton has been doing this awhile and he’s one of the better coaches in the NFL.  This team is built to compete now and Payton knows how to win, he has a Super Bowl ring to prove it.  OC Pete Carmichael has been with Payton quite a while and DC Dennis Allen should have his defense fully ingrained after being there the last couple of years.  This team won’t be outcoached and I like them to win the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are coming off a disappointing season that was marred by a host of injuries on defense and an ineffective offense.  They clearly saw the offensive line as a problem as they drafted two first-rounders on the line, OG Chris Lindstrom and OT Kaleb McGary, and signed veteran James Carpenter.  Lindstrom and Carpenter take over the guard spots while McGary starts the year fighting for the RT job because he missed time with a heart issue.  Once McGary is fully up to speed the job will be his.  All of this was done to protect Matt Ryan better so he can use his weapons in the passing game and to open up some running room for Davonta Freeman.  Freeman lost his running partner Tevin Coleman but the Falcons hope Ito Smith can fill that void.  Freeman will likely take over a few more touches a game too, he’s an effective RB.  Ryan has been successful and he has Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu to throw to so he’s not lacking for talent around him.  TE Austin Hooper also proved to be effective last season.  The last piece of the puzzle was bringing back Dirk Koetter to run the offense.  He spent some time in Atlanta before he was coaching in Tampa Bay and now, he gets to get Matt Ryan and this offense back on track.

The defense was a MASH unit last season.  If they are healthy and flying around this defense can be one of the better ones in the league.  The line is led by DT Grady Jarrett and he needs one of the other DTs to step up and help him out.  They are flanked by DEs Takk McKinley, who has had some issues off the field, and Vic Beasley who’s sort of an undersized DE/OLB.  Beasley is the best pass rusher and they need McKinley to help him out.  Veterans Allen Bailey and Adrian Clayborn were added for depth.  At LB the team goes with speed above all else.  Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and Duke Riley are all plenty fast.  The team really missed Jones and his leadership last year.  The secondary was decimated by the injuries to Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen and Damontae Kazee at safety and they should all be back healthy.  Desmond Trufant is an underappreciated CB and Isaiah Oliver has potential to be pretty good.  Dan Quinn still runs this unit; now he has to hope he has his full complement of players this year.

Quinn is a very good coach which is why he is basically getting a mulligan for last season.  The injury issues completely derailed this team.  A better o-line will fix what ails the offense and health makes the defense immensely better.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers offense has run through Cam Newton for years now but it is time for a bit of a change.  Newton has been banged up quite often and his shoulder has taken the brunt of it all so the team needs to find ways to lessen his load.  Enter Christian McCaffrey.  McCaffrey is a multi-dimensional weapon who can carry the load for this offense.  He’s dynamic and every team has to account for him wherever he lines up on the field.  He needs to be the focus of the offense and they can’t rely so much on Newton.  They do have other playmakers that Newton should lean on also.  WR DJ Moore had a solid season as a rookie and he should be even better this year.  Curtis Samuel is the other WR and he can be a weapon.  The team signed former Patriot Chris Hogan and he should stabilize the third WR spot and take some pressure off Moore and Samuel.  TE Greg Olsen is back again he has always been a Newton favorite.  The offensive line has some changes with Daryl Williams returning from injury to join Taylor Moton as the OTs.  The team also signed Matt Paradis to replace long-time center Ryan Kalil.  The offensive line has to do better protecting Newton and opening holes for McCaffrey.  Williams and Paradis should help considerably.

The Panthers are making a change on defense as they move to a 3-4 defense instead of the 4-3.  They signed Gerald McCoy after the Bucs let him go and he’ll team with Dontari Poe and Kawann Short in what should be a pretty impressive three-man front.  Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson should be an excellent duo at ILB as they can tackle everything.  OLB is an extremely important position in the 3-4 defense and this is where it can go off the rails.  Bruce Irvin was signed but he’s never quite lived up to the hype as a pass rusher and he’s never really been more than a situational guy.  Mario Addison is moving from DE to OLB, we will see how that goes.  The best potential pass rusher is rookie Brian Burns, he’s built for this defense and he could be fantastic.  The secondary can be good.  CB Donte Jackson had a good rookie year while James Bradberry can be very tough playing opposite him.  At safety, the team got a lot better last year when they signed Eric Reid.  Reid stabilizes the unit and brings leadership and talent to the table.  Tre Boston isn’t great but he’s not terrible.

Ron Rivera and his coaching staff return and they hope they have a little better luck injury wise on offense this season as Newton, Olsen and Williams all fought injuries that derailed some of what they want to do.  On defense it looks like they are playing to the strengths of their personnel going to the 3-4.  Irvin and Burns are built to be OLB not DEs and their d-line has guys better suited to the three-man front.  I think they may struggle a bit as the team moves away from being Newton-centric on offense and the transition on defense could have some growing pains.  They should be a close third to Atlanta in the division unless Newton’s health becomes a problem again.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I was all ready to declare the Bucs as my worst team in the league this season and then the Dolphins said “hold my beer”.  I’m not a Jameis Winston believer even with new head coach Bruce Arians being so good with QBs.  I think this team will be looking for a new one come April of 2020.  RB Peyton Barber is okay but he’s the definition of a pedestrian RB.  If Barber isn’t threatening the defense it will make like miserable for Winston and his WRs.  He has good talent to work with in the passing game with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin along with TE OJ Howard.  If Bruce Arians can fix Winston this offense could be good but I just don’t see it.  The line is also not that impressive.  LT Donovan Smith is fine but he’s not a dominant player.  LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen and RT Demar Dotson are starting caliber players but they don’t excite anyone.  The scary part is the offense is the good news.

The defense is going to struggle.  They signed Ndamukong Suh hoping to get the guy who played well during the playoffs last season for the Rams and not the guy who was unimpressive the rest of the year.  The team will play a 3-4 defense under new coordinator Todd Bowles but they don’t have great personnel for it just yet.  Suh and Williams Gholston will play DE around either Beau Allen or Vita Vea at NT.  Vea has potential but for now that’s all it is.  Rookie Devin White should pair with Lavonte David to be a fantastic set of ILBs but that’s the only great part of this defense.  At OLB the team signed Shaq Barrett and are hoping he can be a full-time player instead of a pass rushing specialist he was before.  They also need either veteran Carl Nassib or rookie Anthony Nelson to transition to OLB and that could be a bumpy ride.  At CB they are giving Vernon Hargreaves another chance to prove he’s not a bust.  Todd Bowles is an excellent defensive backs coach so they are hoping he can save Hargreaves career before it’s too late.  Carlton Davis should hold down the other CB spot.  At safety, Bowles will have to work some magic.  Justin Evans is fine but the other spot could be trouble.

Bruce Arians came out of retirement after one year to take this job.  It seems like an odd one for an older coach considering the rebuild this team needs.  Arians brought in Byron Leftwich to run the offense and he has the task of salvaging Jameis Winston in one year before the team has to decide which direction to go with him.  Todd Bowles is Arians’ new defensive coordinator after losing the head job with the Jets.  Bowles has always been a great defensive coach but there is a ton of work to be done with this unit.  I predict this team to be picking high enough to get whichever QB the Dolphins don’t pick between Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.

 

Los Angeles Rams

The reigning NFC Champions have influenced many teams this off season to try to replicate what the Rams have with young offensive genius head coach Sean McVay.  The Packers and Bengals hired former McVay assistants Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor while the Cardinals went for their own version of a young offensive genius in Kliff Kingsbury.  Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  McVay’s offense has been the centerpiece of the Rams resurgence.  RB Todd Gurley did the lion’s share of the lifting for most of last year and then his knees started to give out.  The team is trying to lighten his load with the return of a healthy Malcolm Brown and rookie RB Derrell Henderson hoping to help out.  Jared Goff had a very good year last season and they team hopes to build on that.  Goff had two 1000-yard WRs in Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods and he was missing one of his favorite targets, Cooper Kupp, for much of the year.  Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee are a solid duo at TE.  The team will see some turnover on the offensive line as C John Sullivan is gone but they are hoping to coax (at least) one more good year out of LT Andrew Whitworth.  He’s an important part of their success.  The biggest concern is Gurley’s health and they are hoping that lessening his workload will keep him healthy all year long.

The defense is led by 2-time defending Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald.  He’s a menace to all opposing offenses and he doesn’t look like he’s slowing down any time soon.  As long as Donald is wreaking havoc the rest of the defense will play off of him.  The team wanted a better outside pass rush from their 3-4 scheme so last season they traded for Dante Fowler at the deadline and then they re-signed him.  He’s better than what they had but that’s not saying much.  This off season they signed Clay Matthews and they hope he can find a little bit of the pass rushing skill he used to have in Green Bay.  I’m not sure counting on Matthews is a great plan considering he hasn’t been elite in quite some time but as a part-time pass rusher he might be effective.  Cory Littleton and Micah Kiser are no name ILB but they actually aren’t too bad.  The secondary has some big names that the team needs to play up to their reputations.  Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib are the starting CBs and when they are on, they are excellent.  Talib isn’t quite as good as he used to be but that’s to be expected at 33.  Peters needs to be more consistent.  S Eric Weddle was signed when the team lost Lamarcus Joyner in free agency, Weddle is no spring chicken either but he was pretty good in Baltimore last year.

Sean McVay may be the darling of the NFL coaching circles right now but the team came up short against one of the great defensive minds in the NFL last season in the Super Bowl.  Bill Belichick had an answer for basically everything McVay threw at the Patriots last.  If other teams study up on what the Patriots did than McVay will need to be even more innovative this year.  It would help if both Gurley and Kupp are healthy.  The defense is still in the capable hands of Wade Phillips so they should be good enough on that side of the ball.  The Seahawks aren’t going to be a pushover and the 49ers are hoping a healthy Jimmy G gives them a chance in the division but until someone takes it away from them the NFC West is the Rams to lose.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks offense is still very reliant on Russell Wilson to create plays and bail them out of bad situations.  That job is going to be a bit harder this season with his favorite go-to target Doug Baldwin retired.  The team tried to replace Baldwin with rookie DK Metcalf but he’s injured to start the year.  David Moore was looking like a guy that might bring something to the passing game but he’s banged up too.  That leaves the uninspiring Jaron Brown as the best option to line up opposite Tyler Lockett.  Lockett is a good WR but I’m not sure he’s up to the task of being the team’s #1 guy.  Seattle has to hope Chris Carson can get healthy and stay on the field or that second-year RB Rashaad Penny breaks out or their running game will remain pedestrian.  Carson has talent he just can’t seem to stay on the field.  Penny was over drafted a year ago but he’s a talented back too.  TE Nick Vannett is the best of a less than impressive TE group so he’ll have to do for now.  The offensive line played better last year as LT Duane Brown stabilized that position after years of uncertainty.  They aren’t the best line in the NFL but they aren’t the worst anymore like they once were.

The Seahawks have taken a few hits on defense to start the year and it could hurt them.  First, DT Jarran Reed was suspended to start the season.  He was breakout player last year and the team was hoping he would build on the momentum.  They will have to wait for that to happen.  Then 1^st round pick DE LJ Collier sprained his foot/ankle in practice and his return date is still undetermined.  The team was hoping he would help replace the traded Frank Clark and some of his pass rushing production.  The team didn’t have much in the way of proven pass rusher and with Reed and Collier missing time so they pulled off a trade for Jadeveon Clowney from Houston.  Clowney was franchise tagged and wanted out of Houston.  The Seahawks need a pass rusher and while Clowney is a bit overrated as one he’s better than what they have.  He might be a better one when lining up at DE as opposed to OLB like he did in Houston.  At LB the team should be fine with Bobby Wagner getting is extension in the off season and he’ll be flanked by KJ Wright and Shaquem Griffin.  The secondary needs Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers to establish themselves as legitimate NFL CBs.  They both have the talent they just need to show some consistency.  The days of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor scaring the hell out of the Seahawks opponents officially ended when Thomas signed in Baltimore and Chancellor was forced to retire due to injury.  Tedric Thompson and Brad McDougal are not terrible but they are definitely not Thomas and Chancellor.

Pete Carroll is still going strong but the days of his coordinators being hot commodities seems to be over.  Dan Quinn and Gus Bradley were hotshots at one time on the defensive side but Carroll seems content with Ken Norton Jr and Brian Schottenheimer running the defense and the offense respectively.  I don’t think they are the most inventive play callers in the league and it shows in the team’s performance.  Once again, this team is the Russell Wilson show and they will only go as far as Wilson and the defense take them.  This year that puts them behind the Rams once again and they better hope San Francisco doesn’t make a leap with Jimmy G back under center or Seattle could be looking at third in their division.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are hoping for their major investment in Jimmy Garoppolo to finally pay off after he missed last season with an injury.  This team will only go as a far as he can take them.  The offense needs the Jimmy G that played in those first seven games he started for them two years ago because they aren’t exactly teeming with great skill position players.  Don’t get me wrong they have some solid starters but they aren’t the Chiefs or Browns at the skill positions.  The team added RB Tevin Coleman and he should pair nicely with Matt Breida but that’s hardly a dynamic duo.  At WR Marquise Goodwin is good but Dante Pettis has failed to impress this preseason.  Rookie Deebo Samuel should contribute but fellow rookie Jalen Hurd, who has looked good at times, is banged up and probably won’t be ready for the start of the year.  The only skill position where the team has an elite player is TE.  George Kittle was a record-setter last season and with Jimmy G back there is no reason to think he’ll slow down.  He’s a dynamic weapon in the seam and the only guy opponents have to game plan for at this point.  The offensive line is fine but they need Weston Richburg to stay healthy at center and for their guards to be more consistent.

The defense added some key pieces in the off season.  DE Nick Bosa was drafted #2 overall and the team traded for Dee Ford from the Chiefs to juice up the pass rush.  This team wasn’t great at getting to the QB last season so they are hoping these two can get it done.  Bosa was banged up and missed most of the preseason but the team is hoping he is back and healthy early this season.  The team signed Kwon Alexander from Tampa Bay to add speed and athleticism to the LB corps and he certainly does that.  The rest of the group isn’t great but they are hoping with better play up front it will make the LBs better.  The secondary isn’t great but CB Richard Sherman showed he still has something left in the tank last year and the team is hoping he can do it again.  A better pass rush would help their coverage unit a lot but they still need to add some talent and depth here.  It’s not a position where a lot of good players get cut but the team should be scouring the waiver wire after the final roster cuts to see if there is any available help.

Kyle Shanahan is in his third year as head coach but things stalled last year when Garoppolo went down for the season early on.  Once Nick Mullens stepped in at QB the offense wasn’t horrible but it just didn’t have the dynamic element Jimmy G brings.  This is no doubt a Shanahan production on the offensive side and he will use Tevin Coleman and his two rookie WRs to try to add some punch.  The defense is still a bit lacking, especially in the back seven.  Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh still doesn’t have enough to work with but this team should be better than they were and they will finish ahead of the Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are going all in on Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray.  This either works out and completely changes the NFL or it’s an abject failure and Murray is playing baseball in three years while Kingsbury is back coaching in college.  Murray had his moments in the preseason but the truth is it’s hard to assess anyone playing behind this offensive line.  The one major thing that could derail this entire experiment is having Murray get beat up behind a terrible offensive line and his career goes the way of RGIII.  Murray can only run around so much against NFL defenses before he gets creamed and that will be the end of that.  He has some players to work with on this offense if the line can do anything worthwhile.  RB David Johnson is a fantastic player if you give him some room to work.  He’s multi-dimensional and dynamic.  WR Larry Fitzgerald is a future Hall of Famer who still has a little left in the tank and his veteran savvy is worth his weight in gold.  WR Christian Kirk can be a player too.  He had an up-and-down rookie year and was banged up some but he’s actually a really solid fit in Kingsbury’s scheme. The team even signed Michael Crabtree who I’m sure has something to contribute.  At TE they are pedestrian to say the least but I don’t think Kingsbury’s offense is going to live and die by the TE position.  The line is horrendous.  LT DJ Humphries has never lived up to his draft billing and I don’t think he’s going to turn it on now.  OGs JR Sweezy and Justin Pugh are serviceable veterans but that’s about all.  C AQ Shipley is fine but he’s undersized and always has been.  The team traded for RT Marcus Gilbert from Pittsburgh but there’s a reason the Steelers gave him up so easily.

The defense is a mystery.  Vance Joseph comes in to take over after being fired as the Broncos head coach after two years.  He failed at the head coaching gig but he’s been a good defensive coordinator before.  The team will play a 3-4 defense primarily and the three-man front will consist of holdover Corey Peters and Rodney Gunter and rookie Zach Allen.  I like Allen, he’s a tough player with some solid moves.  At LB they signed Terrell Suggs from Baltimore to pair as the other OLB with Chandler Jones.  Suggs was still a useful player last season even at his advanced age.  It’s a homecoming for Suggs as he played collegiately at Arizona St. If he can still generate some pressure, he will really help Jones, he really hasn’t had a good running mate while in Arizona.  Jones is an effective player but he needs some help.  The team also signed the oft-injured Jordan Hicks to pair with Hassan Reddick at ILB.  Reddick has failed to get his feet under him at ILB and I guess the hope is that Hicks’ veteran presence will help him figure it out.  The best player on the defense would be Patrick Peterson but he’s suspended to start the year.  The suspension might not matter since the team was looking to trade Peterson, all the suspension did was put that on hold.  Peterson is very expensive and probably not worth the money while this team is rebuilding.  He would have fetched a nice trade package before the suspension, now the team will wait and see what they can get for him.  Byron Murphy was a possible first-round pick who fell to the second where the Cardinals picked him and now, he’ll start at CB opposite Trumaine Brock.  It’s not a Pro Bowl pairing but the team could do worse.  Budda Baker is a solid safety but I’m not a fan of DJ Swearinger, although I don’t think this defense is going to struggle because of Swearinger, they have plenty of other reasons to struggle.

The Kingsbury/Murray experiment is an interesting one and could have major implications moving forward.  Murray is an undersized uber-athlete with a live arm and a tendency to hold the ball too long and try to make a play.  That’s a lot of compliments and complaints about someone in the same sentence.  Kingsbury was a Texas Tech alum who failed to turn his former team into a winner and got fired from his college job and then somehow went from accepting a college offensive coordinator job (at USC) to being hired as the head coach of an NFL team.  There are a lot of ways this goes bad and for this season I’m pretty sure it’s going to be bad.  I can’t predict where this will go but if I were a betting man, I would say there’s a better chance Kliff Kingsbury is Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator at USC in three years than there is he’s still coaching Kyler Murray in Arizona.